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Don132
August 9, 2022 2:24 am

If skew-T diagrams of weather balloon soundings don’t demonstrate any altering of cooling trajectory as the balloon passes from drier air to much moister air, that implies that the inhibition of cooling by IR gases absorbing/scattering IR isn’t happening. Yes, absorption and scattering happen, but in themselves they don’t affect temperature. Cooling follows the trajectory of the lapse rate adiabates, which have no terms for radiative effects.

Comments on this?

Reply to  Don132
August 9, 2022 2:50 am

The lapse rate is indeed dominated and largely determined by the ideal gas law – as long as there is vertical mixing. The latter is true within the troposphere.

The issue you refer to, if I understand you correctly, is the alternative explanaton of the lapse rate within “climate science”. The multi-layer GH-model (as with Manabe, Strickler 1964) suggests it was “back radiation” enforcing ever higher temperatures towards the surface, with more a logarithmic shape. This would provide a much larger GHE, that would just not materialize because of convection. Also this convection would mitigate the lapse rate incidentally to the linear shape we observe.

Notable this is not just a totally different explanation, without bothering why the correct explanation would be wrong, but the whole “back radiation” issue is nonsene on its own right. It seems “climate science” is just the right place for such alternative realities to thrive..

Also I think with regard to “back radiation” it is helpful to know how much there actually is..

https://greenhousedefect.com/basic-greenhouse-defects/a-little-thing-about-back-radiation-that-people-forget

Don132
Reply to  E. Schaffer
August 9, 2022 5:25 am

E. Schaffer, I like it, and I like your link. But I was referring simply to the observations one can make in skew-T diagrams that show no ‘back radiation’ from even water vapor. One would expect clouds to affect the lapse rate (huge IR congestion) as a balloon passes through them since clouds are absorbing/emitting huge amounts of IR– and that’s a very, very bad thing (/sarc.) But they don’t distort the lapse rate at all– there’s no evidence. The temperature path still roughly follows (or oftentimes exactly) the wet adiabate curves. Even if the balloon might suddenly encounter relatively very dry air, it doesn’t matter– all that back radiation gone and yet the temperature still follows the moist adiabate curve.

TheFinalNail
Reply to  E. Schaffer
August 9, 2022 5:53 am

My understanding, which may be a little rusty, is that greenhouse surface warming relies on vertical (convective) mixing. This is because greenhouse gases don’t so much warm the surface directly with downwelling IR; rather, they reduce the rate at which IR leaves the atmosphere. The thicker the greenhouse gas ‘murkiness’ of the atmosphere, the higher Earth’s equilibruim level (the level at which energy in = energy out) becomes.

Adiabatic temperature change decreases the higher you go and increases the lower you go. It follows that if the equilibrium level rises, the greater the distance between it and the surface will be and so the surface will be warmer than it was before as a result.

So in order to have any significant warming effect at the surface, greenhouse gases rely on there being colder air above and on convection raising warmer surface air up to that level. The physical processes of convection aren’t affected; the level at which energy in=energy out is.

Ray Pierrehumbert explains this rather better than I do.

Last edited 1 month ago by TheFinalNail
Reply to  TheFinalNail
August 9, 2022 7:30 am

Yeah, that is essentially correct. Just two things..

  1. It is not just GHGs pushing up the emission altitude, but rather GHGs and clouds with about equal shares.
  2. downwelling IR or “back radiation” does not play a lesser role, it plays absolutely no role at all.
Dave Fair
Reply to  E. Schaffer
August 11, 2022 8:09 am

So, in your world downwelling radiation has never been measured?

Richard M
Reply to  TheFinalNail
August 9, 2022 9:02 am

Well mixed GHGs create an upward flux of energy. They do this based on the changing density of the atmosphere. More of them cannot decrease the flux. Hence, the emitting level cannot be changed by these gases. Adding more gases is similar to adding a lane to a freeway and claiming that will reduce traffic flow.

Sadly, many skeptics also believe the nonsense that Pierrehumbert espoused. I think the reason for this error is that it seems reasonable that adding more absorbing gases will reduce the flow of energy. They ignore the fact these same gases also emit energy at the same rate. This is the reason it is the changing density that determines the direction of flow. That doesn’t change as you add more of the gases.

Don132
Reply to  TheFinalNail
August 9, 2022 11:26 am

No, Dr. Pierrehumbert doesn’t explain it well at all. He states that because of IR murkiness, the average emissions height (unmeasurable!!) is raised and so we then ‘count down’ using the lapse rate (which can change hour by hour in any location) and then we get the new surface temperature. But if one looks at skew-T diagrams of balloon soundings, one finds that there’s zero correlation of emissions height (given by finding the height of theoretical emissions temp with elevation reading) with surface temp. The emissions height is constantly changing; so is the tropopause height and so are the lapse rates, for any location.

It’s just hand-waving.

paul courtney
Reply to  Don132
August 10, 2022 12:36 pm

Mr. 132: He’s the Final Nail, so hand waving was his best argument.

RickWill
Reply to  E. Schaffer
August 10, 2022 12:01 am

as long as there is vertical mixing. 

Vertical mixing does not occur once the surface temperature exceeds 15C. That is the temperature where there is enough moisture in the atmosphere over water to create a level of free convection.

The attached Skew=T plot from NOAA SPC shows the measured lapse rate varies significantly over the column – see bottom left. It ranges from 8.2C/km down to 5.6C/km. You can see the rapid change in RH at the LFC.

The ability of Earth’s atmosphere to form an LFC is the reason we get clear sky at times and Earth is not a snow ball.

If the atmosphere was well mixed, all the atmosphere above oceans would be saturated and constantly cloud covered. The atmosphere would sink as the water dropped out due to surface cooling. Eventually the whole surface would be ice covered and oceans would be frozen.

Water in the atmosphere dominates Earth’s climate and we are fortunate it is a condensing gas that forms a more buoyant gas than the rest of the atmosphere.

The idea that there is a “greenhouse effect” diverts attention from reality. Water in the atmosphere over surface above 15C actually ensures there are clear skies at times.

The highest troposphere column is around 14,000m. That is minuscule compared with the thousands of kilometres of open ocean. The question is – why isn’t the atmosphere over oceans always saturated. The answer is that the atmosphere is able to partition into a mixed layer and a dehumidifying layer that inevitably cause instability and initiates the process od deep convection. No climate model is able to physically resolve deep convection so are exercises in futility. They would need 100-fold increase in vertical resolution to resolve deep convection. Or they could simply apply a 30C limit on ocean surface temperature.

There is more detail here:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/07/23/ocean-atmosphere-response-to-solar-emr-at-top-of-the-atmosphere/

Screen Shot 2022-08-10 at 4.36.02 pm.png
Richard M
Reply to  Don132
August 9, 2022 8:08 am

The lapse rate is driven by the density changes. What drives this? Since gases like CO2 and CH4 are well mixed, their concentrations follow the density changes. These gases constant absorb and emit energy based on their relative concentrations. This is constantly resetting the energy levels to match the changes in density.

Notice this is not about absolute concentrations, it is about the relative changes in concentration. Energy from the sun is initially captured low in the atmosphere. As it works its way out to space some of that energy may be absorbed to maintain the energy levels of any given layer. Energy is also radiated away by these layers if they get warmer. It is this flow of energy that maintains the lapse rate.

There is no DLR flux due to the constantly changing density. All downward directed IR is quickly absorbed by the higher density of lower layers. Increasing CO2/CH4 will increase local DLR but also increase the number of available molecules to absorb that DLR. The ratio is unchanged . As a result, there is no such thing as a DLR flux at any level of these gases.

The only DLR that reaches the surface originates from the lowest layer of the atmosphere and cannot produce warming since it is already in thermal equilibrium with the surface.

mkelly
Reply to  Richard M
August 9, 2022 8:50 am

The general lapse rate equation is -g/ Cp. The Cp is of dry air. If you have an equation that shows density as the driver please provide it.

Richard M
Reply to  mkelly
August 9, 2022 9:10 am

What do you think determines the density? Yes, it’s the same g that you used in the lapse rate equation.

Don132
Reply to  Richard M
August 9, 2022 11:36 am

I believe mkelly is correct. Gravitational acceleration (the -g) is the driver of both the dry and wet lapse rates. Because of this, there’s necessarily more pressure nearest the surface, and there’s usually also more density, although colder air, denser than warm, does sink to replace the warmer air that rises. But the interplay between gravitational acceleration and the upward pressure of kinetic energy at the surface is what drive the lapse rates.

A lot of people have pooh-poohed the NZ explanation for atmospheric warming, but it seems to me that gravitational acceleration really is a hugely important and overlooked factor. There’s more kinetic energy at the surface because all the gravitational potential energy of molecules higher up has been converted to kinetic (translational) energy.

Unrelated topic: does anyone know how long it takes for an IR photon to escape to space, with references? Is it milliseconds? Seconds? Minutes? Days, weeks, years?

Thanks WUWT
August 9, 2022 3:13 am

I’m sure many of you have heard of the Ann Heche car accident. She managed to drive her car 30 to 60 feet into a lady’s home. She was seriously burned and it took 59 firefighters 65 minutes to extinguish the flames. The car was some model of Mini Cooper which does have at least 1 EV. I’m thinking only an EV could cause a fire like this. Any updates or thoughts?

Quelgeek
Reply to  Thanks WUWT
August 9, 2022 3:31 am

I think an eagerness to know whether she’s almost been killed by gasolene or almost killed by lithium is vulgar.

Thanks WUWT
Reply to  Quelgeek
August 9, 2022 3:36 am

I’m sorry that she was seriously injured or anyone else involved. But there are broader implications here which have obviously escaped you.

Quelgeek
Reply to  Thanks WUWT
August 9, 2022 5:01 am

I assure you they didn’t.

paul courtney
Reply to  Quelgeek
August 9, 2022 7:36 am

Mr. geek: Your first comment undermines your assurance in the second.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Quelgeek
August 9, 2022 8:28 am

This reply confirms my suspicions about your motivation.

HotScot
Reply to  Quelgeek
August 9, 2022 5:57 am

I’m pretty sure you don’t want to go calling the Fire Service “vulgar”.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Quelgeek
August 9, 2022 8:27 am

One of the strongest of human emotions is shame. If someone can effectively shame a person, they can use that shame to blackmail and silence them. It may be insensitive to raise the question about the origin of the fire, but arson inspectors do it all the time as part of their job. Arson inspectors have to do it as quickly as possible, before evidence degrades or is destroyed. My personal opinion is that you are motivated by a desire to shut down dialog about the risks of a relatively new technology rather than a moral hypersensitivity. There is no greater vulgarity than someone using a tragedy to suppress conversation by feigning indignation.

paul courtney
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 10, 2022 12:40 pm

Mr. Spencer: A proper takedown of the sensitive Mr. geek.

Doonman
Reply to  Quelgeek
August 9, 2022 9:01 am

We are talking about the intensity of the fire, not the person who started the fire. Send a bouquet and get well wishes to the hospital if you are so concerned.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Thanks WUWT
August 9, 2022 3:34 am

Extinguished in 65 minutes implies that it wasn’t a battery fire. That would be more likely to be 65 hours.

Scissor
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
August 9, 2022 4:32 am

Yes. This looks more like an EV fire.

TonyG
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
August 9, 2022 8:47 am

65 minutes for a CAR (ICE) fire is rather long, but it’s pretty typical for a house fire. I don’t know any details but I’m guessing that the house is what was burning at that point.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Thanks WUWT
August 9, 2022 3:35 am

Not sure what model it would be, but pictures I’ve seen show the fire was at the front of the car, where an ICE would be, There’s a significant amount of damage so possible that fuel or brake fluids are/were polyalkylene glycols that ignite spontaneously on a surface heated to 390/400 deg C, so a hot exhaust and petrol/brake fluid but I don’t really know.

On a related topic, last night’s “Inside The Factory” on BBC2 TV, which is usually QI (Quite Interesting) if you ignore the ecomental* bits, was at a manufacturer in Scarborough making electric London Double Deck buses. The chassis, batteries and engine arrive from China as a driveable unit onto which the rest is attached, So all the really technical stuff has been exported to China.

Once completed the empty bus is driven from Scarborough to London, around 250miles/400km stopping once to recharge. Seems to be a lower range than suggested earlier in the programme.

Inside The Factory Series 7 Bus

*Renewable energy in last night’s episode. Ironic as at the time of broadcast the London Array wind park they visited must have been producing a trickle as the UK total was less than 3GW from wind, mostly from Scotland judging by the weather map shown later

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
August 9, 2022 4:24 am

The “sudden vehicle death syndrome (SVDS)” may have struck a
car park in India in June. The “ragin’ contagion” took out
100 vehicles of all sorts. The cause of the fire is still unknown,
but it may have been a short circuit where the
fuse/circuit breaker malfunctioned (?). In any case, it spread pretty easily.

https://joannenova.com.au/2022/08/100-evs-mysteriously-destroyed-in-fire-in-india/

EV100fir.jpg
Last edited 1 month ago by Old Man Winter
JohnC
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
August 9, 2022 12:13 pm

Leicester City Council have electric buses on their park & ride services with buses supplied by Pelican Yutong. https://pelicanyutong.co.uk/

145F2579-CEC4-41C1-87B7-9B10C12F495B.jpeg
Editor
Reply to  Thanks WUWT
August 9, 2022 4:46 am

As i understand it she was going at a huge speed and whether gasoline or an EV the damage and fire would still have been considerable. Hope she recovers ok but no doubt questions will be asked about her driving

Scissor
Reply to  tonyb
August 9, 2022 4:55 am

And questions are being asked about her blood alcohol level.

Steve Z.
Reply to  Scissor
August 9, 2022 5:22 am

Heche was on her social media account a couple hours before the wreck drinking vodka with wine chasers. She is currently in a coma, and there has been no public prognosis. Curiously, one of the controversial statements she has made about her family is that her brother, who died in a car crash at a young age, actually committed suicide.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Steve Z.
August 9, 2022 12:07 pm

It’s being reported that the drinking on social media took place the day before the accident.

Gunga Din
Reply to  Scissor
August 9, 2022 8:02 am

I think the police obtained whatever legal documents are required to draw a blood sample.

Reply to  Thanks WUWT
August 9, 2022 5:14 am

Before the crash, a slurring Anne Heche joked on a podcast about drinking vodka with wine chasers-claiming at the time that she was having a ‘very bad day.’ The episode of ‘Better Together’, which she co-hosts, aired just hours before she crashed her car into the house.

She was obviously speeding before the crash as caught on video (link below) and probably passed out. It was a relatively small car, no matter what kind of engine it had

https://youtu.be/6eGw9OloCJ4

Richard Page
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 9, 2022 9:58 am

As far as I’m aware she first crashed her car into an apartment building, then she drove off, later crashing into the garage of the house; the fire then spread from the car into the rest of the house. If it had been an EV, I don’t think she’d have been pulled clear – when they go they go fast.

HotScot
Reply to  Thanks WUWT
August 9, 2022 6:02 am

From the photographs I’ve seen of the aftermath, it looks more like a front end fire as there is paintwork almost undamaged toward the rear of the vehicle.

Judging by video’s of battery fires in buses recently, it looks like you either get out very quickly, almost unscathed, or you don’t get out at all.

G Mawer
Reply to  Thanks WUWT
August 9, 2022 9:51 am

I saw the air view filmed in real time. Half, or so, of the firemen were there but not active in the fire fight. She drove thru a garage door, apparently unocupied, and then into the house. To the point here the front of the car burned indicating engine fire. Sad to see

TonyG
Reply to  G Mawer
August 9, 2022 11:13 am

“Half, or so, of the firemen were there but not active in the fire fight.”

That’s pretty normal, actually.
Did you happen to see if any of the structure was burning, or was it only the car?

G Mawer
Reply to  TonyG
August 9, 2022 12:32 pm

Definitely structure and car. Most of visible fire attack was thru the roof as a big opening burned above where the car stopped.

TonyG
Reply to  G Mawer
August 9, 2022 1:04 pm

Thank you for that info G. That would match up, then, to the time it took to extinguish.

August 9, 2022 3:27 am

A bit of a “how to use NEPA” to block green projects. Note hit on offshore wind at the end. Let the Black Hole take it!
The Black Hole of environmental impact assessment

By David Wojick
https://www.cfact.org/2022/08/06/the-black-hole-of-environmental-impact-assessment/

The beginning: “Despite lots of talk about streamlining NEPA, this cannot actually be done. Environmental impact assessment (EIA) of large projects takes a long time for two inescapable reasons. First, nature is a complex system. Second, science takes time. The result is what I call the Black Hole of environmental impact assessment because once you get in, you cannot get out. There is simply no end to the unanswered questions. Research is often like that with every answer raising more questions.

To begin with, in principle you have to identify every living thing that might be affected by the project, as well as all the important physical features. For the myriad animals and plants this is especially important if any are classified as threatened or endangered under the various protection laws. You cannot just list all these things, oh no. You have to say where they are and in many cases what they are doing. Also how they interact, such that affecting one kind might affect others. There is the food web for example. Plus things like nesting, denning, hiding, travel, and so forth. All of this is potentially incredibly complex if an Agency or Court decides it is important.

Then, given all these living things, and what they are doing, and their physical world, comes the even more complex issue of impact. It is more complex because you are entering the world of possibility. Possibilities can be truly endless.”

Lots more in the article. Please share it.

Save the whales.

HotScot
Reply to  David Wojick
August 9, 2022 6:09 am

The greens have learned from the left, although they usually are one and the same.

The outcome of anything they engage in isn’t important, the process is the punishment.

Reply to  HotScot
August 9, 2022 11:04 am

Great line! The process is the punishment captures NEPA wonderfully. My hope is to NEPA offshore wind to death.

On Friday Virginia finally approved their monster 176 towers with giant 15 MW turbines project, which I think will be the first monster coastal OSW array to go under the NEPA gun. God help the whales.

M Courtney
August 9, 2022 3:45 am

UK Conservative leadership contest: No mention of climate change.

Why do you think that is?

  • Are the candidates concerned that the Tory members have very different views to the media and so it’s taboo to mention it?
  • Or is there so little difference between the candidates that there is nothing to discuss?
  • Or are they planning such extreme green tax hikes to achieve NetZero that they are keeping quiet about it until after they are in No 10?
MrGrimNasty
Reply to  M Courtney
August 9, 2022 3:57 am

The first rule of the elite’s climate club is….

Essentially all UK climate acts of economic suicide have been snuck in under the radar or with no due democratic process at all (as PM May shafted us on her way out the door). At the last election the climate commitment insanity was in the manifesto but they knew everyone was voting on the single issue of getting Brexit done.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  MrGrimNasty
August 9, 2022 4:47 am

We haven’t had Bunter;s parting gift yet.

MrGrimNasty
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
August 9, 2022 5:07 am

Yes, it is a matter of concern!

Julian Flood
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
August 9, 2022 8:54 am

Lady Num Nuts.

JF

Quelgeek
Reply to  M Courtney
August 9, 2022 5:17 am

Little mention by the two finalists though I believe they have murmured slightly—no more—about cutting green levies and maybe even mooted feasibility studies. The admirable Kemi Bedenoch (an engineer by training I think) came out hard against Net Zero, calling it unilateral economic disarmament.

I think if the contest had been allowed to run a bit longer she could probably have managed to get her message more widely distributed. Unfortunately not being one of the PPE graduate types who have so obviously craved “leadership” since childhood, she didn’t have a PR machine ready primed.

We are left the unappetising pair we have. To be honest I don’t care which one loses.

At least we are spared Mordaunt. She’d have been the catastrophic cherry on the crisis.

Last edited 1 month ago by Quelgeek
HotScot
Reply to  Quelgeek
August 9, 2022 6:38 am

Kemi is a Computer Systems Engineering graduate (MEng). Steve Baker, who declined to run for PM but instead got behind Kemi, has a BEng in Aerospace Engineering and an MSc in Computation.

More importantly, in my opinion, they have both worked in the real world before politics. Baker is a Trustee of the GWPF so a proper sceptic.

Suella Braverman, another notable NetZero opponent, is a Barrister and the current Attorney General. She has also worked in the real world.

My point here is that, it will be more important which of them is appointed to the next PM’s Cabinet, rather than who the next PM is.

One or two of them in the Cabinet and you can be sure which way the wind is blowing relative to NetZero.

Personally, I think Truss, whilst not ideal, is perhaps the lesser of two evils. Sunak is up to his neck in the WEF, even having solid business ties to them with digital stuff, including digital banking it seems.

Truss doesn’t appear to have anything to do with the WEF on an official footing. She has also apologised for voting against Brexit and has worked hard since to secure trade deals around the world.

She was President of Oxford University Liberal Democrats 1996 but saw the error of her ways in 1996 when she graduated and converted to the Conservative party. From that perspective she is probably more of a Conservative than most of the PPE and ‘establishment’ Tory MP’s. A bit like a reformed smoker really, a bit fanatical. She’s another one who had a ‘real job’ before becoming a politician.

I made the mistake of thinking Trump was a distasteful ‘lesser of two evils’ as well, but within 6 months was fully converted as an admirer.

Truss is a shoo in now unless she does something incredibly stupid, so let’s hope she’s as capable as DJT.

I get the feeling that NetZero will become yet another grand idea which will be gradually shuffled into the long grass. As deadlines approach, they will be gradually extended e.g. EV and gas boilers.

By the time we get to 2050 it will all be a bit of a bad dream (not that I expect to still be around) and it will pass uneventfully like every other climate deadline over the last 50 years.

I can’t think of a single politician in UK history who has been imprisoned for breaking a political law like the CCA.

Theresa May won’t be around to be punished, possibly Boris (and he has an out by claiming he did his best), so who get’s the blame for breaking a legal deadline set by a government over a generation earlier, and how does one punish an opposition leader who happens to be in power when the deadline is breached?

Julian Flood
Reply to  HotScot
August 9, 2022 8:57 am

Gummer should be called to account.

JF

HotScot
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 9:44 am

Sadly, he never will.

Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 4:36 am

 A DISREGARDED WARMING MECHANISM

I have been advised by a working scientist that my habit of detailing the below points to those publishing in related fields is counterproductive: they are fully occupied with their work and lack the time to consider the implications.

For twenty years I flew with the RAF. More than half of my flying time was at low level over water, the Atlantic, the Baltic, the Gulf of Mexico, the Persian Gulf, the Mediterranean, the Gulf of Oman etc etc, much of it at 200ft or below. Flying from Cyprus in the early ‘70s I first noticed sea surface pollution which I later realised is a common phenomenon. It is a world-wide problem with many seas polluted to a greater or lesser extent with oil or oil/surfactant. Large smoothed areas are readily apparent. The sewage pollution of all our water courses is, of course, general knowledge.

The Americans have a technique they call ‘the elevator pitch’, an imaginary situation where a supplicant meets their target in a lift and has a briefly captive audience before the lift reaches its destination. Please consider this my elevator pitch.

Julian Flood
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 4:37 am

MARINE/ATMOSPHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION: A DISREGARDED CONTRIBUTOR TO ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING?

Executive Summary

Modern society is polluting the ocean/atmosphere boundary layer with oil and surfactant. To a limited extent this comes from major spills, but the majority comprises the myriad tiny drips from internal combustion engines, from every drain and river, and from every washing machine (1). These form a molecule-thin layer which reduces evaporation and lowers albedo. It smooths the surface, suppressing wave formation which in turn reduces the production of salt cloud condensation nuclei from spray and entrained bubbles. The consequent reduced cloud cover further lowers albedo. A warmed surface causes stratification.

Sewage and leaching of farmed soils further alters ocean ecology: well-fed, unstressed plankton populations boom, releasing less dimethyl sulphide and creating fewer cloud condensation nuclei; when oleaginous phytoplankton blooms die they release lipids which have the same effects as mineral oil pollution.

It is reasonable to assume that all these factors tend to increase surface warming, but the extent of that warming or even if it is a problem is unknown.

Julian Flood
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 4:39 am

A Suggested Non-CO2 Warming Mechanism

The marine/atmosphere boundary layer is huge in extent, but modern civilisation is modifying it
with oil and/or surfactant, and altering its underlying phytoplankton ecosystem with sewage and with nitrate, phosphate, potash and dissolved silica from farming run-off.

Oil, surfactant and oil/surfactant mixtures smooth ocean surfaces and spread into thin films, lowering albedo and suppressing the production of ripples and hence breaking waves and cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs). This is old science: Benjamin Franklin demonstrated the effect on Mount Pond in the early 1770s, and in a classic experiment Lord Rayleigh used it to estimate the size of an oil molecule.

The pollution data from the SeaWifs satellite is out of date – by now oil pollution will be much greater – but the measurements show how great the problem was and no doubt is. (1)

The Haber-Bosch nitrogen fixation industry now equals or exceeds fixation by natural processes. Modern machinery has increased the efficiency of phosphate and potassium extraction. The sheer weight of fertiliser now used, and soils weathering without vegetation cover, provide the nutrients that e.g. diatoms and other oleaginous plankton need to bloom. Diatoms, ferocious competitors, suppress the growth of other phytoplankton until their limiting resource, dissolved silica, is exhausted. Unstressed, well-fed phytoplankton release less dimethyl sulphide, a precursor to CCNs, and so cloud cover reduces. Stratification eventually restricts the mixing of nutrients from below the light zone and the bloom dies. Storing up to 45% of their dry cell weight as lipids, the effect of a bloom die-off is obvious. (See attached image for a possible result.)

Julian Flood
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 4:40 am

Ocean warming is important. If it is caused not only by the CO2 greenhouse effect but also by increased insolation, reduced evaporative cooling and the lowered albedo of smoothed water, we need to know.

Suggested Research.

May I tentatively suggest worthwhile areas of research into the extent of this Anthropogenic Local Warming (ALW)?

A. Evans and Ruf (2) have used the CYGNSS satellites to search for areas of smooths associated with microplastic pollution. Further research suggests that the smoothing they detected has more to do with surfactant pollution than with microplastics, but the source of that pollution is puzzling – thin films are supposed to oxidise rapidly. Their techniques could be used to quantify the world area of smooths. This is the vital first step. Cost £++

Experiments on albedo change caused by smoothing have been carried out, see https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.07021 (3). Cost £++

B. Certain lakes and seas, gulfs etc are warming at anomalous rates. A survey of data relating to warming for lakes such as Michigan, Superior, Tanganyika, Baikal, and the North and Baltic seas, the Black Sea etc. The Sea of Marmara (which is warming at twice the global rate, with huge diatom blooms) will, I believe, prove to be the canary in the coal mine for combined sewage, nutrient run-off and surface pollution effects. If a literature search (the cheapest option) confirms the high rates of warming in certain water bodies then hands-on research would be justified. Cost £+ to £+++ Quantifying a molecules-thick film will be an interesting challenge.

C. Deliberately polluting clean water bodies with oil/surfactant mixtures. However, the SeaWifs data shows that it might prove difficult to find unpolluted lakes. (See “Up In Smoke” (1)) Cost £++

D. A search through satellite imagery to examine oil spills and cloud structures above them. The Deepwater Horizon satellite images show areas which the fond eye of someone with a theory could interpret as cloud suppression. Archive video of the Shetland Braer disaster will, if I recall correctly, show cloud ablation which may indicate reduced lifetime for oil polluted droplets. Cost £+

E. Literature search of sea surface temperature and ship loss records from the North Atlantic in WWII. An experiment of large-scale oil spillage on a major ocean has actually been carried out, namely the Battle of the Atlantic. Professor Tom Wigley’s ‘blip’ may have an explanation. (4) Cost £+

Julian Flood
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 4:41 am

None of this would be blue sky research. Something is causing the warming anomalies and it needs to be identified.

Author’s note: I have neither the training nor the background to justify making these points. However, I have seen the phenomena. Embarrassing though it is, I feel it is important that observations from my work experience (which is comparatively rare) should be on record with someone who might be able to make use of them. I reassure myself that Feynman tells us that anyone can guess.

It was a very slow elevator.

JF

1. https://seawifs.gsfc.nasa.gov/OCEAN_PLANET/HTML/peril_oil_pollution.html

2. http://cygnss.engin.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/534/2021/06/Evans-Ruf_Detection-of-Ocean-Microplastics_TGRS-2021.pdf

3. https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.07021
Yukun Sun, Christopher Ruf, Thomas Bakker, Yulin Pan

4. Professor Tom Wigley, UEA, when correcting the wartime SSTs, found that there was an irreducible temperature excursion which he dubbed ‘the blip’.

Julian Flood
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 4:43 am

 FRACTURED SMOOTH FROM 40,000FT EN-ROUTE TO MADEIRA, MARCH 2012.

file:///C:/Users/julia/AppData/Local/Temp/lu94485ateed.tmp/lu94485ateet_tmp_d50217a95f16c6b9.png

Taken from a 737 en-route to Madeira in March 2012. This fractured smooth began abeam Porto and finished a couple of hundred miles short of our destination, the width being beyond the extent of visibility. Areas with almost complete smooths overloaded the primitive camera phone. Fractured areas, as here, showed no wave breaking within the smooths, but in the unsmoothed areas the wave behaviour was typical of Force 4 on the Beaufort scale.

There had previously been an Azores high sitting over this area of the Atlantic for two or three weeks.

The total area affected amounted to thousands of square miles.

The source and identity of the smoothing agent is unclear. Over-fed oleaginous plankton could be implicated as nutrient-rich waters would not suffer from the rapid oxidation that precludes thin film oil from on-land sources reaching such remote offshore locations. Unless, of course, smoothing agents do not oxidise as rapidly as assumed. Seabed seeps are a possibility.

Doug S
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 4:55 am

Thanks Julian, enjoyed your post. That thin boundary layer is certainly something to consider and I’m not sure it has been talked about in the context you present. You have the great advantage of seeing this phenomenon with your own eyes, much better than a computer model/guess.

HotScot
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 7:17 am

Julian, mate, you only get one shot at an elevator pitch, unless the lift has a fault and won’t stop going up and down.

Elevator pitch rules: Pick three vital items – the problem, the effect, and the solution.

People with money don’t understand science, they understand money, don’t use words like “stratification” they don’t know what it means.

“Mr. money man, we have a serious problem with a thin film of man made oil covering the surface of the oceans.”

“It’s causing global warming as it stops the sea evaporating as it should/it kills plankton/it does something equally disastrous [take your pick].

“I have a solution which will save a billion lives by next Tuesday, it will cost a billion dollars but government’s will pay two billion dollars for it.”

More importantly, elevator pitches are not random. You must know your target inside out, down to his inside leg measurement.

This is largely the problem with scientifically driven sceptics. In 50 years, despite having all the science to hand, we have done nothing to stop the fanatics. Explaining science to people who don’t understand science (90%+ of the world) is futile.

The left learned that long ago, so adopted propaganda as their tool of choice. Everyone understands propaganda.

Joe Biden has done more for the cause of climate sceptics in 18 months than we have in 50 years.

Mr.
Reply to  HotScot
August 9, 2022 8:33 am

For an ex-Cop, you’ve got a better grasp of the sales caper than many sales people I’ve employed, HotScot.

One of my main beefs with sales personnel over the years is their inclination to treat a sales pitch opportunity as just an occasion to expound their own “expert” knowledge of the product / service, completely missing the prospect-specific needs/ benefits focus.

HotScot
Reply to  Mr.
August 9, 2022 9:23 am

I wasn’t always a Cop.

I left after many years and went into sales and marketing, then ran my own firm before it fell victim to recession. Wound up as Sales and Marketing Director for an IT business before 9/11 when the industry virtually shut down.

Agree with you entirely about sales staff. When I was with the IT firm and it was in trouble it was all hands to the pump and I had to teach about 20 computer programmers and consultants how to make a cold call on the phone.

First: Get your little black book out and call all your contacts and friends you know who might buy from us.

Second: When done with that, call people in trade magazines etc. The guys that actually make the decisions.

Third: Never explain to the receptionist what you want, just asked to be put through. At worst, speak to the guys PA, if she/he likes the idea you have an instant recommendation.

We landed a £250m deal that way. Our parent company pulled the plug before we could sign it though. My bonus was to be 4%!!!!!!!!!!

Mr.
Reply to  HotScot
August 9, 2022 10:29 am

Hey that’s really interesting HotScot.

One of the things that impresses me about many commenters here is the broad extent of their life and occupation backgrounds.

I’m often gobsmacked when some bloke at my local fishing club tells me he worked at the Motor Registration Dept or somesuch for 42 years.

IMO, nothing does more to balance a person’s world view and rational approach to situations than being able to draw from a deep well of personal experiences across a wide variety of occupations and travels. With large doses of personal responsibilities thrown in.

If I had another opportunity at life, I reckon I’d want to come back as the “bullshit detector man” that Karl Pilkington describes in “The Idiot Abroad”

HotScot
Reply to  Mr.
August 10, 2022 11:23 am

I surprise myself regularly when I find I can contribute to discussions, based almost solely on what I unwittingly learned about humanity when I was a cop.

It is one of the most enlightening jobs I can think of. I have locked up Princes and Paupers (figuratively) and when you watch them in a cell together, deprived of their liberty and every advantage, or disadvantage life has thrown at them, you begin to understand a tiny bit about life.

The single defining feature under those conditions is the human capacity for honesty, or lack thereof. Not relative to their offence, but of the critical examination of their own character.

Strangely, as a young man I didn’t recognise the lessons I was learning, it’s not until many years later that ‘wisdom’ manifest’s itself, sadly, probably far too late for most.

roaddog
Reply to  Mr.
August 9, 2022 12:41 pm

You are right on the money. I’ve spent an entire career winnowing needless facts about a potential supplier (my employers) from customer presentations.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  HotScot
August 9, 2022 8:39 am

People with money don’t understand science, they understand money, don’t use words like “stratification” they don’t know what it means.

There is something seriously wrong with our society if people with wealth and power have limited vocabularies and don’t understand the science and technology that make our modern world possible.

HotScot
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 9, 2022 9:34 am

Do you understand financial terms?

Most people have a vocabulary restricted to their environment, be that finance, science, academia etc.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  HotScot
August 9, 2022 8:30 pm

Do you understand financial terms?

Many of them, yes, even though they are rarely used outside of financing or econometrics. However, there is a difference between not understanding medical and biological jargon based on Latin, versus not understanding “stratification” or fundamental chemistry concepts which are used outside the discipline of chemistry.

HotScot
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 10, 2022 11:07 am

Most of the under 50’s in the western world can’t spell, and half of them have no idea what a spellchecker is.

Come on, we are dealing with a couple of generations if people who have demonstrated no urge to learn or improve themselves.

roaddog
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
August 9, 2022 12:43 pm

There is something seriously wrong with our society.

Julian Flood
Reply to  HotScot
August 9, 2022 11:24 am

HotScot, I wasn’t serious about the elevator pitch. Basically I wanted to put the whole idea of surface pollution mediated warming on the table. I’ve been trying for years to get Willis to crunch the numbers — why no-one in climate ‘science’ is bothered by anomalous warming is beyond me. Does the fact that the Black Sea is warming faster than the open ocean not trigger the why reflex in scientists?

Global warming, real or not, is costing us billions of dollars a year but no-one seems to care that the demon CO2 seems capable of affecting different areas of the planet in different ways.

<shrug> What the hell.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 4:16 pm

Julian, there are also countless natural oil seeps on sea floors. Gulf of Mexico, offshore California, Arctic ocean, Mediterranean, Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, Black Sea….. plus land seeps that are carried by rivers. Canada and Venezuela have 100s of billions of barrels of surface and near surface oils with rivers crossing them. Everywhere oil and gas is produced, natural seeps occur on land and under seas.

The good news is this stuff which powers our civilization, also feeds a large variety of bacteria. The big oil platform failure in the Gulf of Mexico that everyone thought would blacken Florida’s beaches, was, to everyone’s surprise a minor cleanup problem. Bugs ate most of this oil.

HotScot
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 10, 2022 10:59 am

Perhaps the reason Willis isn’t interested is because you have a lousy elevator pitch, and please don’t take that as a criticism. Almost everyone has a lousy elevator pitch.

Sorry mate, I got your point in your first post, by your third post I was falling asleep.

I don’t mean to suggest your proposition is bad, it probably has considerable merit, it’s your approach that’s failing.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 10, 2022 1:52 pm

“Global warming, real or not, is costing us billions of dollars a year”.

Really? Where? All I see are net benefits to date?

Kevin kilty
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 10, 2022 7:32 am

That URL is useless to me. It references a file on your local drive which I have no access to.

What you have to say is interesting. I have thought about the same thing in the context of gas exchange (CO2 and water vapor), but heat exchange would naturally follow.

Reply to  Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 5:22 am

Yes, that is one of many manmade variables that affect temperature measurements. Oil slicks would reduce lower layers of the ocean ability to cool. … But more important why were you flying at 200 feet or below and looking at the ocean? Training for some under the radar sneak attack? Sounds exciting.

Julian Flood
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 9, 2022 8:52 am

Not oil slicks, these one molecule thick layers don’t have the heft that the word ‘slick’ implies.

I first noticed the pollution flying Vulcans out of Akrotiri in the 70s. Then
I flew low level strike/attack Buccaneers, all during that gap in history when we prepared for war so we didn’t have to fight. See if you can find some of the Red Flag videos – one 208 crew hit a wire at about 40ft. Under the radar was the idea.

JF

HotScot
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 9:53 am

My memory of Buccaneers is when they sunk the Torry Canyon.

Long boring story of me applying to the RN as a chopper pilot. Went through Biggin hill first and passed all the fast jet stuff. Went on to Portsmouth and failed the chopper tests.

When I asked why I had passed fast jest and not choppers I was told “Those amateur fast boys have a nice long bit of tarmac to land on, we only have a tiny heaving deck in a howling gale”. 🤣

I was so pissed off I had failed I didn’t apply for the RAF and became a cop instead.

Regrets, I’ve had a few. 🤣

Reply to  Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 2:10 pm

I used “oil slick” because I did not know any other name

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 11, 2022 8:04 am

Julian,
We bought a pair of Nomad N22 Australian twin turbo props in the era just as the Shah of Persia was being ousted by the Mullahs and flew a year of grids over what is now Iran with geophysical instruments on board. I forget how many line Kilometers, but we produced many thousands of maps.
The contracted terrain clearance was 80 meters +/- not much.
We used RAF range-range radar TANS tactical air navigation system with radar altimeters connected to a coloured light system on the instrument panel for cross track specification IIRC of +/- 10 meters. It was tough flying. A competitor lost a DC3 into a mountain.
Just swapping low flying notes. Sadly, we did not survey over seas except to measure instrument noise and that was usually stacked altitudes to measure gamma falloff with altitude, so we did not see oil slicks.
I do appreciate the potential of your surface slicks and have had brief discussion months ago with Rick Willoughby and his work on climate modification via deep convection etc.
Geoff S

Julian Flood
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
August 11, 2022 8:49 am

Before the Shah was ousted we had a detachment to Tehran, flying high-low profiles against the IIAF. The low level sorties across the big desert areas were pretty awe-inspiring. The Phantoms either picked us off at height, which was not realistic, or got vectored in as we recovered.
A strange country, small patches of civilisation with the rest extremely poor and resenting it.

JF

Meab
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 10:15 am

There have always been natural oil seeps that leak oil into the ocean. The one off Santa Barbara, CA is estimated to have released 80 Exxon Valdez’s into the ocean, and that’s just one seep out of many. There are ocean mechanisms that break down this oil. It’s not new and not unique to humans,

Julian Flood
Reply to  Meab
August 9, 2022 12:58 pm

Meab, science, as you well know, is all about numbers. I am aware of natural oil seeps — you will note that I pointed out that that was a possibility. Assuming you have no greater experience of the state of the ocean surface than I have, are you content to dismiss the possibility that the amount of discarded light oil that our civilisation is dumping onto the oceans is affecting the albedo and evaporation? I don’t know, but from first principles my guess is that it must have some effect. In that case, what are the numbers?

If you would like a handwavy guess, look at the data from WWII and the temperature records from the North Atlantic. In spite of all the adjustments there is a temperature blip. a spike of warmth. so obvious that even the adjusting team was puzzled. Why the blip.

My guess is that the blip is caused by the spilt oil/surfactant lowering albedo, reducing evaporation, suppressing wave breaking and thus lowering the production of salt aerosols etc etc.. What is your guess?

JF

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 11, 2022 8:12 am

Julian,
Australian temperature time series commonly contain some form of “1940’s blip” that has long annoyed climate researchers, see Climategate. The suggestion that oil films affect sea surface roughness enough to affect temperatures must be investigated rather than consigned to the too hard basket.
It is precisely the type of effect that should be included as contributing to uncertainty envelopes around relevant climate measurements as a confounding variable. Geoff S

Julian Flood
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
August 11, 2022 8:55 am

Yes. But how does one get a scientific study into the effect with climate science stuck in a ‘must be CO2’ groove and no speculative handwaving breaking through?

JF

Richdo
August 9, 2022 4:40 am

What happened to the story posted about 24 hours ago on Nitogen?

Net Zero Is Not Just For Carbon Emissions — Now It’s Nitrogen

I didn’t get a chance to read it, now it’s gone?

Reply to  Richdo
August 9, 2022 5:26 am

I had a good comment that got lots of + votes
… to offset my comments here that get lots of – votes !
and now it is gone. The original article at the Manhattan Contrarian is here:

Net Zero Is Not Just For Carbon Emissions — Now It’s Nitrogen — Manhattan Contrarian

Reply to  Richard Greene
August 9, 2022 9:50 am

Here’s my prior comment, that “disappeared”
Hope it doesn’t “disappear” again:

Leftists have so many wars ongoing it’s hard for me to keep track of them. The wars never seem to end, even when they seem to have been won, such as lower SO2 emissions and lower NO2 emissions.

I guess they follow my Iron Law of Leftism:
– Everything is wrong / broken and must be fixed
— With leftists in charge
— Who will make everything worse.

The current leftist wars that I can think of
(I could use help with more):

The chemical wars (CO2, CH4, SO2 and NO2)
Donald Trump and all conservatives
The Supreme Court
Burning oil, gas and coal
Pipelines
Not in love with nuclear power
Religion (except Muslims)
The two-parent family
Free speech
Gun rights
Due process (January 6 political prisoners)
Russia
Crimes committed by conservatives
Disinformation (censorship)
Racism
Homophobia
.
.
Wars that leftists are NOT interested in:

Inflation
Crime (except when committed by conservatives)
Violent Muslims
China (communism, Uyghurs, intellectual information theft, etc.)
Marxist indoctrination in schools / alternative false US history
Critical Racist Theory (to create interracial hatred)
Grooming children to become homosexual or trans
Illegal immigration
Illegal drugs
Poverty
Affordable medical care
Affordable college education
Excessive government spending and power
Leftist bias in college education
Abortions
Unprecedented Covid vaccine adverse side effects
Threats made to conservative Supreme Court Justices

When you add up wars that leftists appear to be fighting
and wars they do not appear to be fighting, the conclusion is obvious: Leftists are horrible people who ruin everything they touch

Last edited 1 month ago by Richard Greene
RichDo
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 9, 2022 2:00 pm

Thanks for the link to the article Richard.

Steve Case
Reply to  Richdo
August 9, 2022 6:03 am

You’re right, it’s gone:

Monday August 8th 10:16 AM 

Net Zero Is Not Just For Carbon Emissions — Now It’s Nitrogen – Watts Up With That?

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/08/08/net-zero-is-not-just-for-carbon-emissions-now-its-nitrogen/

Brad-DXT
Reply to  Richdo
August 9, 2022 8:32 am

I think the mods disappeared it.
It was probably overcome with politically incorrect comments with some being off-color.

DMacKenzie
Reply to  Brad-DXT
August 9, 2022 9:08 am

WUWT is apparently censored by its service providers. Not the first time either…Beware of those who claim they are truth checkers….

Last edited 1 month ago by DMacKenzie
Brad-DXT
Reply to  DMacKenzie
August 9, 2022 9:11 am

It would be good to know who censored it and why.

Editor
August 9, 2022 4:44 am

I can’t find the information on the supposed online handbook but anyone any idea of the wattage./costs of running a modern integrated Lenovo desk top computer?

I don’t tend to turn it off during the day but do so in the evening. I just wondered if it was a noticeable cost these days with energy costs so high. Against that is the convenience of just stroking the mouse to have everything pop back up in a second instead of having to reopen everything if shut down completely

tonyb

Alexy Scherbakoff
Reply to  tonyb
August 9, 2022 5:24 am

There are devices you can put inline with your power input to a computer that will read wattage or current. Power consumption will depend on what you’re running, as well. A clamp-on ammeter will show the current drawn when performing various tasks or the computer is idle.

Reply to  tonyb
August 9, 2022 5:35 am

If you have to ask, you can’t afford it !

Without measurements the power usage of an electrical device can be very roughly estimated (high, medium or low) by how much waste heat it releases into the room. Assuming you can feel the heat. You couldn’t notice with a refrigerator, air conditioners or vacuum cleaners.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  tonyb
August 9, 2022 6:57 am

use sleep mode

Editor
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
August 9, 2022 8:23 am

I do use sleep mode, activated by the mouse. I tend to work early in the morning then there are often several periods of a couple of hours during the day when I am doing other things. Keeping it running is more convenient but if turning it off on my down time saved significant sums rather than just peanuts its worth considering

Our energy is much more expensive in the UK than the States. The Computer seems to run very cool so little waste heat

tonyb

Gunga Din
Reply to  tonyb
August 9, 2022 8:21 am

If you have a battery backup some of them have a program that might track power usage.

Reply to  tonyb
August 9, 2022 11:32 am

Can’t you figure the wattage by looking at the power specs for the desktop?

Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 4:46 am

My apologies for a major set of posts — I’ve tried to get them out there in a more sensible format, but to no avail. Is the effect I see important? I don’t know. Has it ever been noticed? I don’t know. At least I reckon I’ve nailed Wigley’s blip.

JF

Alexy Scherbakoff
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 5:41 am

360 million square kilometres of ocean surface. I haven’t heard any screaming about less clouds or rainfall.

Julian Flood
Reply to  Alexy Scherbakoff
August 9, 2022 8:24 am

Are you sure that there has been no reduction in clouds? Have a look at the Sea of Marmara data – warming at twice the rate of clean ocean.

JF

Doug S
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 8:35 am

It’s an interesting subject, Julian. The bonds between the surface oil molecules are electrovalent (I’m assuming) and these are very strong. Again, just guessing but I think water molecules just below the surface oil layer would not be able to change state into a vapor. This would drive their temp/energy level up beyond their normal state change. But then again, once the surface layer is disturbed and holes appear, the stored energy might be quickly released taking the surface temperature back to “normal”. It’s going to take much smarter people than me to assess this situation but thanks again for sharing your eye witness experiences with us.

Doug S
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 9, 2022 9:05 am

Strike my last comment, got curious enough to crack a book on Oil films on Water. My assumption was completely wrong, petroleum based oils are non polar so no electrovalent bonding. I’m back to plain ole don’t know what effect this kind of oil layer would have on evaporation or energy levels of the water.

Julian Flood
Reply to  Doug S
August 9, 2022 12:39 pm

Evaporation is reduced. Albedo is reduced. Fish farmers have used thin oil film to warm their ponds.

JF

Scissor
August 9, 2022 4:58 am

Can’t wait for the Inflation Reduction Bill to address climate change and bring down prices.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Scissor
August 9, 2022 7:09 am

As I predicted, Manchin is exposed as just another tax-n-spend democrat, paid off with pork for his state.

Schumer Says the 230 Economists Who Wrote Letters to Congress Saying Dems’ Tax-and-Spend Bill Will Make Inflation Worse are “Wrong”

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/08/schumer-says-230-economists-wrote-letters-congress-saying-dems-tax-spend-bill-will-make-inflation-worse-wrong-video/

Brad-DXT
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
August 9, 2022 8:42 am

I’ve got a side bet going that the demoncrats will not follow through with his proposed pipeline. He’ll have to wait for a republican administration, if he’s lucky.

Gunga Din
Reply to  Scissor
August 9, 2022 8:29 am

On the bright side, people will be spending less since they won’t be able to afford to buy anything!

Brad-DXT
Reply to  Scissor
August 9, 2022 8:34 am

Now that there is funny.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Scissor
August 9, 2022 8:43 am

I’m very concerned that it will bring down some things — just not prices!

FlaMark
August 9, 2022 5:43 am

Self-Inflicted Damage

Over the past several decades the left seems to have enlisted a talented PR team to promote their ideological programs. Earth not warming fast enough? Too much snow, not enough hurricanes? Simply rebrand Global Warming to Climate Change and the problem is solved. Losing the debate on Climate Change? Label your opponents “Deniers” and there is no need to engage in any discussion or scientific debate. Create an inflationary bill that raises taxes, injects hundreds of millions into the economy, just call it the “Inflation Reduction Act” people will love it..  

Due to recent environmental and energy policies which have been quietly injected into economies on a global basis, we are about to incur a myriad of social and economic crisis’s (274. Cometh the Horsemen: Pandemic, Famine, War | Michael Yon & Dr Jordan B Peterson – The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast | Podcast on Spotify) which have the common characteristic of being “self-inflicted”. These self-inflicted energy policies are going to wreak havoc on the poor this winter. Additionally beginning this winter we are about to experience starvation and famines due to the combination of high energy prices and the latest green policies to reduce both Nitrogen fertilizer and animal/meat farming.

Here’s the kicker. Though these crises are self-inflicted, the left will attribute them to Climate Change and continue the carnage. We need to get ahead of these issues. I suggest readers, scientists involved with WUWT, The Heartland Institute and all skeptics please consider using the “self-inflicted” term when referring to current and future damage caused by these policies.  

Last edited 1 month ago by FlaMark
Editor
August 9, 2022 5:53 am

During the rare hot weather here in the UK it has been unusually sunny, no doubt partly because Europe has managed to reduce pollution.

The importance of Buildings and tarmac in UHI therefore became more self evident with warm pavements, warm walls etc, hours after the sun has gone from them.

Looking at London -and many cities and towns will be similar- it now has a giant bypass all the way round it (the M25) often 5 lanes in each direction) These are equivalent to the heat absorbing/radiating runways of many airports.

Add in tall buildings of which we have many more than 50 years ago. Presumably they are absorbing heat all the way up on their concrete or stone then reradiating it into the atmosphere from ground level to hundreds of feet up..

I can’t find any studies on the impact of Tall buildings and their heat contribution although their involvement in winds eddies is well known. Nor the heat impact of motorways/bypasses and other new roads.

tonyb

HotScot
Reply to  tonyb
August 9, 2022 7:26 am

Whatever you find would be largely useless anyway. A bunch of Phd students poring over computer models using measurements from sources they don’t understand is just guesswork.

Was it Feynman who said “A hypothesis is a guess, a theory is an educated guess”?

I’ll be considered a heretic for saying it but, trying to understand the climate using the scientific method is like using a nut to crack a sledgehammer.

Steve Z.
August 9, 2022 5:59 am

Re: Temperature Surface Stations

During the recent heat wave in Seattle, I noticed that the real time Seattle temps posted on the Weather Channel and on the KOMO News weather page were 1 to 4 degrees F cooler than the official high temp from SeaTac Airport.

I emailed KOMO News weather department and asked them to publish a photo of the SeaTac Surface Station from several angles so we could judge if the station was out of compliance with NOAA standards. The SeaTac Station is actually located between two runways according to a six year old aerial photo.

I asked KOMO News to take new photos and publish them. So far, no response from KOMO.

I am thinking that urging, or browbeating, our local news media to photograph the official NOAA Surface Stations in all our own home towns might be a very efficient way to get hundreds of new Surface Station photos. It would also put this issue directly in the view of many thousands of people who do not read Watts Up With That.

Gunga Din
Reply to  Steve Z.
August 9, 2022 8:38 am

Something that might influence the airport readings aside poor siting, many major airport weather instruments are now maintained by the FAA rather than the NWS.
They only call in the NWS to work on the stations if there is a major problem but, in the meantime, the FAA continues to report temps that they know are are erroneous.
(That info came from a personal conversation with someone from the NWS when he came to check our official rain gauge. I don’t know if Seattle is one of those airports.)

Jeff Labute
August 9, 2022 7:03 am

Have you seen this? A claim that all rain water in the world, forever, is unsafe to drink due to chemical poisoning (PFAS). I think the EPA has recently redefined safe levels so exaggerations can be conducted(?) I’d rather see $ spent phasing such things out than cleaning CO2 from the air. As a bird owner, PFOAs are understood to potentially harm birds.

https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/08/04/rainwater-everywhere-on-earth-unsafe-to-drink-due-to-forever-chemicals-study-finds

Quelgeek
Reply to  Jeff Labute
August 9, 2022 8:38 am

I can’t be bothered to read the article. (My bad. Soz.) But if anyone else cares to read it for me and comment here, I’d be interested to know if they rely on a linear no threshold model. It’s a good trick for declaring, for example, there is no safe amount of salami to eat.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Jeff Labute
August 9, 2022 9:01 am

I think the EPA has recently redefined safe levels so exaggerations can be conducted(?)

It would seem that for chemicals that are deemed to be inherently toxic, the permissible levels are set at whatever the detection limits are for the current technology.

Gunga Din
Reply to  Jeff Labute
August 9, 2022 9:09 am

This might be more than you want know.
https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/7e3925ea-736c-4c23-9001-74502c4c2e97/downloads/Occurrence%20and%20Removal%20of%20PFAs%20from%20Water%20-%20Ma.pdf?ver=1659988947474
(I was there for the presentation in 2019. This is a pdf of the slides. His explanations of the slides is not there.)

Last edited 1 month ago by Gunga Din
Gunga Din
Reply to  Gunga Din
August 9, 2022 9:19 am

PS As I understand it, the levels that are actually toxic rather than potentially toxic are still unknown.
And keep in mind that there is a big difference between “acute” and “chronic”. Many enviro groups don’t bother to explain the difference. Levels that might have a long term effect (chronic) are reported as if they have an immediate effect (acute).

ResourceGuy
August 9, 2022 7:07 am
griff
August 9, 2022 7:45 am

Korea, Denver, Kentucky, Bangladesh, Australia, twice; China Germany, NW Canada

Europe, India/Pakistan/Texas, China; US & Pacifc NW, US multiple times, E Europe, whole Med including Turkey through near East.

Extreme rain, heatwaves 2022, 2021.

Multiple record rainfall and temperatures records set.

Editor
Reply to  griff
August 9, 2022 8:27 am

Griff

I am sure that we would all be pleased to crowdfund a series of books on historic climate for your next Birthday. Trouble is that when people such as me quote things that refute your comments you then disappear. So would you actually read our gift?

tonyb

Dave Andrews
Reply to  griff
August 9, 2022 8:29 am

No point just listing countries without providing any evidence/links

Quelgeek
Reply to  griff
August 9, 2022 8:39 am

Sigh…

Mr.
Reply to  griff
August 9, 2022 8:42 am

And if nobody told the locals about “records”, they would probably have thought it was all just the weather bringing what weather can bring from time to time.

And they would be right.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  griff
August 9, 2022 9:05 am

The city of Denver equates with the countries of Korea, Bangladesh, and Australia? Among your other traits, you are not very discerning. You shouldn’t be surprised that people don’t take your comments seriously.

Gunga Din
Reply to  griff
August 9, 2022 9:25 am

Griff, you left out Pennsylvania and the Johnstown Floods.
You might also have included the Ohio River in 1937. Lots of states effected.
You could have had a longer list!

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  griff
August 9, 2022 9:27 am

The words are familiar but I can’t recall the tune.. Oh wait! I’ve got it:

HotScot
Reply to  griff
August 9, 2022 9:42 am

Define “extreme rain”. How much, over what period, under what conditions etc.

Define “heatwave”. How hot, for how long, contributing factors etc.

Record temp. set in the UK at 40.3ºC – for a matter of minutes.

Buzz off pest.

Gunga Din
Reply to  HotScot
August 9, 2022 3:14 pm

His definition of “extreme” or ‘heatwave” seems to involve the most recent headlines.
Since history, by definition, is not recent it doesn’t count.

HotScot
Reply to  griff
August 9, 2022 10:41 am

GREENLAND IS *GAINING* ICE IN THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER

We’re all gonna freeze to death!!!

Is that the conclusion you inevitably must draw griff?

https://electroverse.co/greenland-is-gaining-ice-in-the-middle-of-summer/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-latest-post-from-electroverse_2

You are as thick as a brick……

SMB_curves_LA_EN_20220808-top-crop.jpeg
Carlo, Monte
Reply to  griff
August 9, 2022 11:34 am

Hey griffffff, go check out what happened in Denver in 1965, if you dare…

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
August 9, 2022 8:36 pm

Or the Boulder (CO) floods of 2013:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Colorado_floods

roaddog
Reply to  griff
August 9, 2022 12:53 pm

Yes Griff, it did rain in Denver. Rainfall and temperature records are set somewhere every day. Yawn.

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  griff
August 11, 2022 8:28 am

Griff,
For every extreme heatwave there has been a corresponding coolwave that brings the average temperature at a place back between quite narrow bounds around the average. This is not conjecture, it is fact shown by the near-constant long term temperature. The coolwave might not be extreme or spectacular, or a single identified event, but it happens.
You can make a name in climate research by doing the opposite of what the mob does, by researching and publicising coolwaves. Go for it. Geoff S

Coach Springer
August 9, 2022 8:42 am

Meanwhile in disinformation, my local newspaper today published an article by Seth Borenstein under cover of the AP of a faraway distant flood allegedly caused by climate change supposedly illustrative of health hazards of flooding and oblivious to reality. When they repeat a lie often enough, everyone looks to it as authoritative.

Michael in Dublin
August 9, 2022 9:33 am

Thanks for this opportunity to post on climate matters issues that deserve consideration but are overlooked.

With the dry weather and heat – it is summer – we have been having in Ireland, I was thinking about government spending/waste on unachievable climate goals. This while giving inadequate attention to the supply of water and huge loss through old leaky pipes that need replacing. Today, an article popped up preparing us for restrictions: Water supplies are under pressure in 60 parts of the country as the hot weather continues.”

The journalist said nothing about the previous severe water restrictions a few years ago. He did not bother to find out how much or rather little had been done to replace pipes and fix leaks. He did not compare the large sums spent reducing emissions and changing to renewables with that spent on the water supply system. A good journalist would have relished in exposing the climate lunacy.

Tom Abbott
August 9, 2022 1:02 pm

It looks like Joe Biden is trying to turn the United States into a Police State.

The radical Left is showing just how reckless and dangerous they are.

I’m going to guess that this attack on Trump is going to backfire on the radical Democrats.

Let’s hope it does, otherwise the criminals in the White House can attack any of us just the way they are attacking Trump.

The radical Left is trying to impose their version of a dictatorship. It’s up to us to prevent them from being successful. Or we lose our freedoms to the ruthless radical Democrats.

We will see the “Justice” Department and the FBI, and their boss, Joe Biden, in January.

Burgher King
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 9, 2022 2:22 pm

The Democrats and their RINO fellow travelers are now moving heaven and earth to steal the 2022 election cycle using new and improved versions of every technique they used in 2020.

They are completely confident they can pull it off.

The FBI raid on Trump’s home is another indication the Democrats and the Uniparty RINOs in league with them are working from a playbook where the fix for the 2022 mid-terms is already in.

Actions speak louder than words.

Their actions in funding 87,000 new IRS agents and in arresting their political opposition demonstrates they have no concerns at all about political consequences. They will still be in power in Washington DC in January 2023.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 10, 2022 6:28 am

I see Republicans making the wrong argument with regard to this attack on Trump and Freedom.

Many of them are wanting us to look at how Hillary Clinton or some of the other Democrat liars and criminals like Hunter Biden were treated with kid gloves for doing the “same” thing Trump has done. They are implying that Trump is in the same category as Hillary and the others :guilty of crimes, when in fact there is no evidence Trump has committed a crime here.

Instead of complaining about the double standard of justice, the Republicans should be complaining about the attack on the U.S. Constitution and our personal freedoms that this attack on Trump represents.

It’s much more than a double standard of justice that is going on here. The radical Democrat are trying to steal the nation for themselves and want to rule in perpetuity. That’s what Republicans should be focused on. Look at the Big Picture, not the distractions within.

Quit putting Trump in the same criminal category as Hillary Clinton and Hunter Biden. Trump is the most innocent man in the nation. The Democrats have been trying to pin something on him, anything, for over five years now and haven’t come up with a thing. My bet is this latest attack on Trump will not be any different. If they had something on Trump, you can bet they would be going public with it. That they remain silent is telling.

The United States is being governed by a Cabal of Democrat Criminals. They are not nice, reasonable people. The Republicans should stop treating them like they are. Instead, treat them like the conniving criminals they are. Call them criminals. Call their activities criminal. Because that’s what they are.

Last edited 1 month ago by Tom Abbott
Don132
August 9, 2022 3:34 pm

This is an important question so I’ll ask again: how long does it take an IR photon from the surface to escape to space? I think it’s in the order of milliseconds. But if that’s true, then there is no radiative greenhouse effect and N&Z are correct.

There’s no IR radiation being trapped by greenhouse gases. True or false?

niceguy
August 9, 2022 8:04 pm

Currently watching Ukraine war coverage in France. (All stuff pro Ukraine of course. Nothing remotely critical of the one and only source for all things in Ukraine, the rag “Kiev Independent”.)

Wondering why they are all basically passing around easy and silly “Sortir du nucléaire” (French Beyond Nuclear)/Greenpeace (and possibly Russia Today) anti nuclear talking points, saying it can be “100 times worse than Chernobyl” if bombs were to fall on the Zaporizhzhia (Zaporižžja) NPP.

Hello? One former (?) KGB who is the star(*) of French TV even said that destroying a NPP would be a lot more poisonous than a nuclear bomb.

(*) Not as much as a p*rn lawyer, but almost all good for all things Russia and Ukraine related

niceguy
Reply to  niceguy
August 10, 2022 7:40 am

That Sergueï Jirnov guy really is impressive. Maybe not quite omni competent as a real p*rn lawyer, he sure as an opinion on almost anything.

Most recent take: the MAL FBI raid is legit.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  niceguy
August 11, 2022 4:03 am

How would he know it is legit? The truth is he is just guessing given the limited information available.

Going by past experience, the raid is not legit but is rather a poltical hit job.

niceguy
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 11, 2022 11:16 am

As former KGB, Jirnov knows stuff.

He knows how war in Ukraine is going, the risks of breach of primary containment for NPP, everything there is to know about toxicology and radiology…

Jirnov was not asked about gun control or carbon pollution – yet. He sure knows about those.

niceguy
Reply to  niceguy
August 13, 2022 3:37 pm

Jirnov thinks that during last French election cycle:

  • Marine Le Pen (“far right”), François Fillon (“conservative”) were pro Russia
  • implicit, unsaid: others were less pro Russia; Macron (“center” (lol)) must have been not pro Russia, as Jirnov said nothing about Macron in the same sentence

That’s so called “political science“, I guess.
Reality check: Fillon was Prime Minister for 5 years (a very long time in France, showing that Sarkozy was quite a responsible President who wasn’t using ministers are throwaway items).

Sarkozy defended the French nuclear program against the massively biased mass media (*) and refused to sign anti nuclear energy pledges.

And Marine Le Pen is also pro nuclear energy.

But Macron made a law (legal? I think not) to limit the total amount on power from nuclear in France (where is energy “libéralisation”?).

I think there is a huge anti nuclear energy media campaign being pushed by the Ukraine conflict pro Ukraine POV and relayed by MSM. Pro nuclear energy politicians are criticized. Not because they are pro nuclear, officially. But still.

(*) the French MSM, in in any nuclear issue debate, will only present the point of view of anti nuclear organisations, and these anti nuc orgs are always presented as “independent”!

niceguy
Reply to  niceguy
August 13, 2022 10:07 pm

Of course Sergueï Jirnov isn’t profiting of women working in bars so maybe he is more like a French speaking Mary L Trump (Twitter @MaryLTrump):

Jirnov is a Russia insider like Mary Trump is a Trump insider!

niceguy
Reply to  niceguy
August 14, 2022 4:39 pm

The kind of stuff these people get up on:

‘Too inconvenient’: Trump goes rogue on phone security

Trump’s call-capable cellphone has a camera and microphone, unlike the White House-issued cellphones used by Obama. Keeping those components creates a risk that hackers could use them to access the phone and monitor the president’s movements.

Keeping the mic on a phone used to call people is huge risk…
That’s why these people follow p*rn lawyers. They may have a mind but they lost the ability to use it.

Also, article is

By ELIANA JOHNSONEMILY STEPHENSON and DANIEL LIPPMAN

05/21/2018 07:00 PM EDT

It took no less than three “journalists” to output that garbage.

niceguy
August 9, 2022 8:52 pm

Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views on controversial scientific issues

Nicholas Light *, Philip M. Fernbach , Nathaniel Rabb , Mugur V. Geana , Steven A. Sloman

Despite consensus by scientific communities on a handful of critical issues, many in the public maintain anti-consensus views. For example, there are sizable gaps in agreement between scientists and laypeople on whether genetically modified (GM) foods are safe to eat, climate change is due to human activity, humans have evolved over time, more nuclear power is necessary, and childhood vaccines should be mandatory (1).

https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.abo0038

They cite Lew of course:
S. Lewandowsky, G. E. Gignac, K. Oberauer, The role of conspiracist ideation and worldviews in predicting rejection of science.

These buffoons studied journalists or stuff, so of course they believe this is a source:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/08/opinion/how-the-anti-vaxxers-are-winning.html

Tom Abbott
August 10, 2022 5:55 am

I heard this morning on the news that if you order a new Ford F150 electric pickup truck today it will cost you $8,500.00 more dollars than had you ordered one some months ago.

It seems the price of some of the materials that go into making an electric vehicle have increased substantially in price lately.

I think this electric car inflation is going to be possibly an insurmountable obstacle to getting everyone into an electric car. It is certainly not going to happen in the near future. The prices are going to spiral upwards, out of reach of many.

Last edited 1 month ago by Tom Abbott
Dave Andrews
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 10, 2022 7:37 am

According to the IEA there were c. 16m EVs in the world at the end of 2021. The IEA also estimates that by 2030 there may be 200 – 250m EVs worldwide.

To reach this target will require a huge increase in lithium, nickel and cobalt mining, in total up to 127 new mines. The IEA itself has said in the past that it takes around 16 years to bring a new mine into full operation.

A report recently for the European Commission (‘ Critical Raw Materials in Technologies and Sectors in the EU. A Foresight Study’) estimated that by 2050 there could be 140 – 220m EVs in the EU.

There are currently over 1.4 billion ICEVs worldwide. The idea that everyone will be driving EVs by 2050 is looking more ludicrous every day. .

Last edited 1 month ago by Dave Andrews
Tom Abbott
Reply to  Dave Andrews
August 11, 2022 4:07 am

Thanks for the good information, Dave.

The Green New Deal is full of unreachable goals.

Steve Case
August 10, 2022 8:06 am

Miniquiz time:

Whats wrong with this cartoon:

Coal powered EV and Pete.png
Steve Case
Reply to  Steve Case
August 10, 2022 8:07 am

I’ll be back in a later today to see if anyone posted a reply.

Brad-DXT
Reply to  Steve Case
August 10, 2022 9:41 am

Modern coal power plants don’t spew out black smoke.
The image of Pete Buttigieg (Alfred E. Neuman) is way more attractive than real life.

Steve Case
Reply to  Brad-DXT
August 10, 2022 1:51 pm

Bingo

BRANCO SwampMonsters.news©2022 Creators,com

Have bought into the bullshit.

niceguy
Reply to  Brad-DXT
August 16, 2022 8:17 pm

They return carbon (the element) to the air.
Not opaque columns black carbon about the chimneys?
Carbon, carbon, what difference does it make?
A lot.
They still call both “carbon”.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Steve Case
August 11, 2022 4:11 am

One thing missing from that picture is there is no dialog bubble saying “What? Me worry?”.

Bill Everett
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 11, 2022 10:41 am

In the various discussions of possible effects upon the Earth’s air temperature I fail to detect any linkage of any pattern of the effect being discussed and the apparent pattern of temperature change.

Luchezar Jackov
August 14, 2022 7:34 am

If CO2 played any noticeable role in the climate, why there’s no correlation between SST and CO2 concentration?

SST: https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/english/long_term_sst_global/glb_warm_e.html

niceguy
August 14, 2022 7:43 pm

Three quarters of Tory voters back Sir Keir Starmer’s plan to freeze energy bills as ministers come under pressure to do more to address the “national emergency” of living costs.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/three-in-four-tory-voters-back-labours-energy-plan-8kzcm85pd

niceguy
August 14, 2022 9:17 pm

Prof Peter Hotez MD (Medical Demented) think vaxxers are like critics of Islamism:
Tweet

I’m quite shaken by what happened to Salman Rushdie and view this through a lens of what could happen to US scientists from those who believe what’s on Fox News or in WSJ Op and other Murdoch holdings, or in other conservative press, anti-vax or anti-GMO websites is actually true

August 16, 2022 8:27 am

Mysticism has and still is infecting some famous physicists (Small Brains Considered – 7).

Last edited 1 month ago by Dredd
niceguy
August 16, 2022 7:53 pm

More insaner bigly nonsensical garbage:

https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/news/2022/fake-news-poses-corrosive-existential-threat-to-democracy-study

‘Fake news’ poses corrosive existential threat to democracy – study

Influence of fake news is undermining public trust in democratic institutions, regardless of whether people believe it or not, new research finds.

Online ‘fake news’ is an existential threat to democracy – not because most people believe bogus content, but because of the corrosive effect it has on trust among citizens and their faith in democratic institutions representing them, according to a new study.

Since the UK’s Brexit Referendum and the election of Donald Trump as US President in 2016, fake news has become a significant source of concern with most commentators worrying about the uptake of false information by the consumers of fake news.

Surveys among voters also show widespread concern about fake news on social media platforms such as Facebook, but the real danger to democracy lies in people’s views that fake news is influential – regardless of whether that belief is true.

This means that the bogus stories do not even have to be believed by those who read them to have negative effects on democratic institutions. Instead, the fear that others will believe fake news is already sufficient to cause problematic damage to the democratic process.

The conclusion is even more exceptionally dumb:

The study notes that before Internet use became widespread, citizens had a relatively limited range of information sources such as newspapers and TV stations – creating greater information overlap, more ‘shared experiences’ and, in turn, less reason to worry about the beliefs of others.

People had more shared experiences?

TonyG
Reply to  niceguy
August 17, 2022 8:30 am

“citizens had a relatively limited range of information sources such as newspapers and TV stations”

i.e. controlled “news” and no access to alternate information sources or points of view.

niceguy
August 17, 2022 4:03 pm

More most secure election insecurity:

According to the Washington Post, “There is growing concern among experts that officials sympathetic to Trump’s claims of vote-rigging could undermine election security in the name of protecting it.”

https://www.kktv.com/2022/08/16/trump-allies-arranged-copying-voting-machine-data-battleground-states-report-says/

The election is secure except when pro Trump people manipulate the machines.
Then it’s very unsecure.
Security is fragile.

August 18, 2022 2:30 pm

Anything new on that petition I signed (it might have been on this site) to name the next/current Grand Solar Minimum the Eddy Minimum?

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