The Week That Was: 2022-08-06 (August 6, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “A man may imagine things that are false, but he can only understand things that are true.”― Sir Isaac Newton
Number of the Week:3.7 W/m2 equals??
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: Last week’s TWTW incorrectly stated the percent of surface-air stations the team of volunteers organized by Anthony Watts found that violated NOAA’s siting standards in 2009. The team found about 96 89 percent of U.S. stations failed to meet the standards NOAA considered “acceptable.” The 2022 survey found that 96 percent now fail to meet these standards. These are not the stations used in the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) which has 137 commissioned stations in the United States. The USCRN stations should be used in reports such as the National Climate Assessment, not the deficient ones. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/crn/overview.html
Discussed below is a solid presentation by Jim Steele on why ocean warming is caused by the sun, not by greenhouse gases.
Climate modelers fail to test their models against all physical evidence and greatly overestimate the current warming. Now climate modelers are calling for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to emphasize the most extreme. At what point does exaggeration of physical evidence become science fiction?
The ill-named Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 is in the Senate sausage factory. Who knows what will eventually emerge? A few key issues are discussed below.
Earlier this year the Australian government pledged $700 million to protect the Great Barrier Reef against climate change and global warming. Now, it is in the best conditions it has been in 36 years of monitoring. This and other examples of the power of money are discussed.
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory reported that the December 20 to January 15, 2022, eruption of the Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano sent a great deal of water (unprecedented) into the stratosphere that may result in a warming of the atmosphere and the surface.
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Heating the Oceans: An issue with addressing how the earth cools is the mental concept of time. According to the Stefan-Boltzmann law, the earth is continuously emitting infrared energy depending on temperature. Some atmospheric gases, greenhouse gases, continuously interfere with the release of this energy to space in specific wavenumbers (number of wavelengths per centimeter, sometimes called frequency). In clear skies near the surface, most of the gases are well mixed except for water vapor, which varies significantly by region. The entire process of release of energy from the surface, the greenhouse effect, and release of energy to space is continuous, similar to time. Like time, it can be divided into discrete units for mental convenience. But it remains continuous. [Infrared, visible light, ultraviolet and all other parts of the electromagnetic spectrum can be characterized by photon energy, by wavenumbers, the numbers of wavelengths per centimeter, or frequency, the number of waves passing by per second, or even generically by color. We will use the term wavelengths with that understanding.]
Between 1666 to 1672, Isaac Newton developed a set of experiments to understand color. He used a prism to divide a beam of light into the spectrum of colors, then recombined the colors back to white light (colorless light). Thus, Newton demonstrated that the prism does not color light. Clear ocean separates sunlight by wavelengths or colors. The first to go is infrared energy, which is emitted by the earth into the atmosphere and bounced around. It does not penetrate into the ocean by more than a millimeter, thus cannot warm it at depth.
Although addressed somewhat differently, the fact that oceans separate light by wavelengths is a key part of Jim Steele’s presentation on “Why the Sun, Not CO2, Heats the Oceans.” He begins:
“About a decade ago there was a heated and unresolved debate on whether infrared back radiation from greenhouse gases is heating the oceans. Because infrared penetrates less than a millimeter into the ocean’s surface, many skeptics argued it is impossible to blame rising CO2 for ocean warming. However, several prominent skeptic scientists, people who I have great respect for, also weighed in arguing it was silly and useless to argue infrared heat can’t warm the ocean.
“After analyzing the physics detailed in this video, I’m convinced it is solar energy that drives the observed ocean heating, and any infrared ocean heating is insignificant at best. If this analysis holds, it is another significant strike against the prevailing CO2 driven global warming theory.
“To ensure lay people are brought up to speed, here’s a quick summary of where consensus climate science stands today.”
After giving background, Steele discusses research that shows the thin skin layer of the ocean warms during the day but cools back at night. There is no greenhouse gas warming deeper than a millimeter. Steele gives a good graph showing how different colors of visible light penetrate into the ocean as well as the difference between the land surface and the oceans. He discusses the Stefan-Boltzmann law and changing ocean temperatures with changing El Niños and La Niñas (changing El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)). Steele concludes:
“The obvious clue to the primary driver of ocean warming is that the regions of greatest solar flux into the ocean are the same regions created by Pacific and Atlantic La Ninas. That solar heated water is transported westward and then poleward along ocean currents where the greatest amount heat is vented “
“To date there has been no provable mechanism illustrating how heating from CO2 can heat anything more than the ocean’s skin surface. In contrast the combined climate effects of solar heating, the ITCZ [Intertropical Convergence Zone] migrations and La Ninas are strongly supported in the peer-reviewed scientific literature.
“So, I will ignore the click bait news media’s fear mongering that our oceans are “on the boil” due to rising CO2. There is simply no scientific proof to support such dishonest narratives.
And I will sleep well. There is no climate crisis.”
The above shows that ocean warming is not proof of global warming. Of course, a general warming of the globe, including the lower atmosphere, will result in a warming of the top layer of the ocean. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Fact or Fiction? Generally, climate studies, including those government sponsored, are not a physical science. They are contradicted by the best physical evidence available – including over forty years of atmospheric temperature trends and measurements of the impact of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Humans adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere are not causing dangerous warming. Except for the West, much of the world does not believe the results of climate models
A paper edited by Professor Emeritus Kerry Emanuel of Massachusetts Institute of Technology calls for bolder studies of extreme claims. An expert on tropical cyclones, Emanuel is a strong supporter of the IPCC and its models. The ACE index of tropical cyclones shows that intensities of storms are declining, not increasing, for whatever the reason. The abstract of the paper states:
Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies’ vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence—together with other global dangers—be usefully synthesized into an ‘integrated catastrophe assessment’? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.
The paper then states:
How bad could climate change get? As early as 1988, the landmark Toronto Conference declaration described the ultimate consequences of climate change as potentially ‘second only to a global nuclear war.’ Despite such proclamations decades ago, climate catastrophe is relatively under-studied and poorly understood. [Boldface added]
This is complete non-science, based on speculation, not physical evidence. Over the past 40 years, there have been great advances in understanding what is occurring in the atmosphere. This physical evidence does not support the claims of catastrophic climate change. The exaggerations are mindless. Accepting this advice is as foolish as accepting the advice of a heart specialist who has ignored the advances in understanding heart disease over the past 40 years. In 1980 the US death rate from heart diseases was 412 per 100,000 in population; in 2018 164 per 100,000, a decline of 60%. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy, Questioning the Orthodoxy, Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda, and https://www.statista.com/statistics/184515/deaths-by-heart-diseases-in-the-us-since-1950/
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Stagflation Preservation? Writing in the Wall Street Journal, columnist Gerard Baker begins:
Just as some claims made in business are so self-evidently fictitious that even the most shameless of hucksters will recoil from articulating them, so some propositions advanced in politics are so dishonest that even the most mendacious politician will avoid association with them.
Then there’s the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.
If you’ve ever been convinced by a used-car salesman that the 20-year-old rusting hulk out back with the dodgy chassis and the blue smoke pouring out of the exhaust is a ‘reliable pre-owned bargain,’ you’re going to love the Inflation Reduction Act.
This, you will know, is the new name that has been conferred by Senate Democrats and the White House on the remnants of the old Build Back Better bill, the vastly ambitious tax-and-spending measure that was nearly foisted on an unsuspecting American public last year in the middle of a pandemic.
Like that lemon sitting at the back of the dealer’s lot, it’s been given a little touch-up, a fresh coat of paint, a reduced-price tag, and a bright new description. The master plan that was going to save the planet from extinction a year ago has been repurposed as a fully functional inflation-fighting weapon, laser-focused on reducing price pressures in the American economy.
I’m being a little unfair to used-car dealers. Surely not even the most opportunistic of charlatans would take his customer for that kind of a fool.
The columnist describes some of the spending details of the bill and continues:
If we are in the business of renaming legislative measures with a bill that is going to reduce inflation through deficit reduction, can we now all agree to call the American Rescue Plan of 2021—which added six times as much to the deficit in one-fifth of the time—the Inflation Acceleration Act?
Then take a look at what the Democrats’ new bill actually achieves in deficit reduction.
Because the spending provisions kick in more quickly than the revenue-raising provisions, the bill would actually increase the deficit in its first few years. According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, it would begin to reduce the deficit only in 2027.
So, the Inflation Reduction Act—sold to Americans on the basis that it will reduce the surging inflation the Democrats themselves helped unleash—won’t even have any downward effect on the deficit for five years. I’m skeptical about the average lawmaker’s ability to predict the inflation rate in five years, but if we have to wait until 2027 to get on top of the current cost-of-living crisis, we are in trouble.
As for those tax increases that kick in straightaway, especially the minimum corporate tax rate, not only are they outweighed by the spending increases, but they make no sense at all for an economy that is clearly contracting at an alarming pace
Democrats claim that some measures, such as enabling Medicare to negotiate drug prices, will tamp down inflation. But that’s largely speculative, and the independent Penn Wharton analysis sees no overall impact on inflation.
Of course, it doesn’t. That’s not what the bill was ever intended to do.
Tear off the absurd Inflation Reduction Act label, and behind it, you will see—illuminated by the excited glow of media coverage of the Democrats’ premature victory laps—exactly what it is: another large plank in the Democratic plan to ‘re-engineer ‘ the U.S. economy, with another hefty expansion of government, disappointingly enabled in part, by the way, by congressional Republicans, who cleared a path for it by helping pass another bill, subsidizing semiconductor producers.
CEI researcher Marlo Lewis found disturbing provisions in the bill that may be used to change the significant Supreme Court decision in West Virginia v. EPA. Lewis writes:
‘No provisions in the bill would literally overturn West Virginia. However, some provisions seem calculated to create specious talking points for progressive judges who already believe—or profess to believe—that West Virginia was wrongly decided.’
After citing such provisions in the new bill Lewis concludes:
“He [Manchin] is now sponsoring legislation that would amend the Clean Air Act to expressly require CO2 emission reductions from fossil-fuel power plants, and that specifically appropriates tens of millions of dollars to promote the Clean Air Act’s use as a framework for making climate policy. Enacting those provisions can only embolden opponents of West Virginia’s Supreme Court victory.”
See Article # 1 and links under Questioning the Orthodoxy.
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The Power of Money – Arizona: In the early 1970s, when Ken Haapala taught at Arizona State University in Tempe, a suburb of Phoenix, the $4 billion Central Arizona Project was underway. The project was designed to bring water from the Colorado River to central Arizona. A few members of the faculty stated that the 1922 Colorado River Compact (Colorado River Basin Water Agreement) allocating Colorado River water among seven states was in error. The base line was set during a wet period. Eventually, a drought would occur. A drought is occurring now. Of course, climate experts blame it on climate change, although droughts have occurred many times in the past.
According to reports, the last Democratic holdout needed to pass the ill-named Inflation Reduction Act was Senator Krysten Sinema of Arizona. Apparently, she agreed once changes were made to some tax provisions and billions of dollars to combat drought. The Southwest US is in its summer rainy season (called monsoons). On August 4 heavy rains hit Phoenix and Las Vegas causing flooding and the Navajo Nation to declare a state of emergency due to flooding. The power of money is surprising. See links under Changing Weather, The Political Games Continue and https://www.cap-az.com/
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The Power of Money – Australia: For years, the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) has produced reports of the decline of the Great Barrier Reef, which is called as proof of dangerous global warming. According to reports, the government of Australia pledged $700 million to protect the reef against climate change and global warming. The just released Annual Summary Report of Coral Reef Conditions by AMS shows that the Reef is in the best conditions it has been in 36 years of monitoring. Amazing how fast corals can recover with money!
The new study includes observations from divers in addition to observations from airplanes and on-board ship. As Jo Nova states:
“We know that corals bleached all the way back in 1862, and probably have for millions of years, there were just not many scuba divers to record it.
“This study is an absolute blockbuster in terms of busting the myth that corals are on the verge of extinction. Spread the word.”
Jennifer Marohasy, a diver who has long stated that observations from airplanes and ships are highly biased, gives a little background using John Brewer Reef:
“I found it impossible to reconcile what I had observed with the results of their aerial survey claiming major coral bleaching. The aerial survey was undertaken by Neil Cantin.
“The results from the aerial surveys, as reported in a series of social media posts by David Wachenfeld from the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA), generated worldwide media headlines suggesting that this coral reef (John Brewer Reef) was dead and dying.
“Yet I had never seen a more colourful coral reef, and the fish were exquisite not to mention the white tipped reef shark, nudibranchs, sea anemones and so on.
Marohasy requested but never was given aerial photographic evidence of coral bleaching. See links under Changing Seas and Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
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More Water Vapor: The eruption of Tonga-Hunga may be the greatest disturbance of the atmosphere since the Krakatoa eruption of 1883, greater than disturbances caused by testing nuclear weapons. The plain language summary of the paper states:
“Using measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder on NASA’s Aura satellite, we estimate that the excess water vapor is equivalent to around 10% of the amount of water vapor typically residing in the stratosphere. Unlike previous strong eruptions, this event may not cool the surface, but rather it could potentially warm the surface due to the excess water vapor.”
The stratosphere is above the tropopause where most water freezes out. It is characterized by temperature layers, with temperatures increasing with altitude. Will NASA’s climate modelers include this disturbance in their calculations? See links under Changing Earth.
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No TWTW next week: Attending the DDP Conference. SEPP Directors Howard Hayden, Willie Soon and Ken Haapala will be giving presentations.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON
VOTING CLOSED
The awardee will be announced at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on August 14 to 16 at the South Point Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. Registration: https://aaps.wufoo.com/forms/qb79fo31o62uh1/; Hotel: https://be.synxis.com/?adult=1&arrive=2022-08-14&chain=6903&child=0¤cy=USD&depart=2022-08-15&group=DOC0811&hotel=11548&level=hotel&locale=en-US&rooms=1
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Number of the Week: 3.7 W/m2 equals?? AMO physicist Howard Hayden points out that the IPCC in the Fourth Assessment Report, “Understanding and Attributing Climate Change” (AR4, 2014, Chapter 9) asserts that the climate forcing from a doubling of carbon dioxide will be 3.7 watts per square meter (3.7 W/m2). However, based on graphs presented (Fig 9.20 p 720), but without necessary numbers on the top line for increased Surface Radiation (W/m2), the 3.7 W/m2 works out to be less than 1 °C, less than the lowest estimate in the written text. In grammar, we learned not to have dangling modifiers. Is this an example of dangling a number (or noun)? See https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg1-chapter9-1.pdf
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
The Sun-Climate Effect: The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis (I). The search for a solar signal
By Javier Vinós and Andy May, Climate Etc. July 31, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Long essay and the first part of a series on a complex problem.]
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Why the Sun, Not CO2, Heats the Oceans Revisiting the Debate: Does Greenhouse Back-radiation Warm the Oceans?
Why the Sun, Not CO2, Heats the Oceans
Revisiting the Debate: Does Greenhouse Back-radiation Warm the Oceans?
By Jim Steele, A Walk On The Natural Side, July 31, 2022
Text: https://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2022/07/revisiting-debate-does-greenhouse-back.html
Video: https://youtu.be/61VxYVIHW-U
Cloud study demystifies impact of aerosols
By University of Exeter, Phys.org, Aug 1, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Machine learning reveals climate forcing from aerosols is dominated by increased cloud cover
By Ying Chen, et al. Nature Geoscience, Aug 1, 2022
“We find that volcanic aerosols do brighten clouds by reducing droplet size, but this has a notably smaller radiative impact than changes in cloud fraction. These results add substantial observational constraints on the cooling impact of aerosols.”
Latest Survey of ‘Coral Cover’ Fundamentally Unscientific
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Aug 5, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy
Climate change: More studies needed on possibility of human extinction
By Staff, BBC News, Aug 2, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
Link to study: Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios
By Luke Kemp, et al, Edited by Kerry Emanuel, MIT, PNAS, Aug 1, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Carrots and Sticks Needed to End Oil Dependence
By Carlton D. Everhart, II, Real Clear Energy, August 04, 2022
“General Everhart is the former commander of the U.S. Air Force’s Air Mobility Command and currently a member of the Energy Security Leadership Council of SAFE, an organization dedicated to advancing transportation technologies to enhance energy security.”
[SEPP Comment; Will we see air transport at jet speeds using solar or wind power?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Schumer-Manchin Bill Undercuts West Virginia v. EPA
By Marlo Lewis, Jr, CEI, Aug 5, 2022
“So, if Schumer-Manchin passes, Congress will have amended the Clean Air Act to create an electric-sector greenhouse gas reduction program, with an $18 million fund to ‘ensure’ reductions are ‘achieved,’ including by ‘the establishment of requirements.’ I am unaware of any CAA emission-reduction programs with ‘requirements’ that are not regulatory.”
The Big Green Lie Almost Everyone Claims to Believe
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 5, 2022
“The claim that the ‘science was settled’ on climate change never withstood scrutiny.”
Climate Emergency? What A Crock, Part 2
I & I Editorial Board, August 3, 2022
“We decided long ago that the climate zealots would never back down, no matter that the facts say. Their fanaticism knows no bounds. So, all we can do is bring the truth whenever we are able. We see no reason people should live in fear and guilt.”
[SEPP Comment: Discusses the survey of surface stations by Anthony Watts, et al.]
Study Human extinction? Climate doomers want to find a nuclear-winter-level scare to motivate people
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 4, 2022
“To properly assess all these risks, the authors are calling on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to carry out a special report on catastrophic climate change.”
Simple Pencil Can Teach Us about Energy Prices and Inflation
I, a mere Pencil, would like to show readers just how fundamental energy is—even to a simple desk tool.
By Benjamin Dierker, FEE, July 30, 2022
[SEPP Comment: A retelling of Milton Friedman’s tale.]
All Weather Is Now “Climate Change”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 4, 2022
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2022/08/all-weather-is-now-climate-change-2/
Text: https://realclimatescience.com/2022/08/all-weather-is-now-climate-change/
Energy and Environmental Review: August 1, 2022
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, August 1, 2022
Change in US Administrations
The big new climate bill’s most important provisions
By Andrew Freedman, Axios, July 29, 2022
“The climate and energy provisions in the Senate’s revenue and spending deal cover everything from incentives to buy electric vehicles to spurring the development of next-generation climate technologies, such as direct air capture.”
[SEPP Comment: Why?]
Biden Promises, Policies and Political Problems
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Aug 3, 2022
Inflation Reduction Act will boost EPA efforts to tackle the climate crisis
By David Coursen, The Hill, Aug 1, 2022
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Chinese Threat: Renounce Taiwan, or the Global Climate Gets It
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 5, 2022
“China suspends climate change cooperation with US and sanctions Nancy Pelosi in retaliation for Taiwan visit”
[SEPP Comment: What cooperation?]
India Electricity Mix
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 5, 2022
[SEPP Comment: As with China, a problem in India is the failure to filter real air pollutants. Although expensive, fabric filters appear to be the best modern method.]
Seeking a Common Ground
Climate Change Debate At The Soho Forum
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Aug 1, 2022
The New Age of Orwellianism
By Josh Hammer, Daily Signal, July 29, 2022
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for July 2022, +0.36 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Aug 2, 2022
Measurement Issues – Energy Flow
Earth’s Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine
By P.R. Goode, et al, Geophysical Research Letters, Aug 29, 2021
Changing Weather
Flooded Arizona Suffering “Devastating Megadrought”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 5, 2022
Heatwaves in the Northwest: Are Extreme Heat Events Increasing Rapidly?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Aug 4, 2022
Tokyo Midsummer Hasn’t Warmed In Decades. And: The Missing Hurricanes”.
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 3, 2022
Changing Climate
The Sahara Is Green When Warm, Desert When Cold…And It’s Drier Now Than The Last Glacial Maximum
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Aug 1, 2022
Link to latest study: Early Holocene greening of the Sahara requires Mediterranean winter rainfall
By Rachid Cheddadi, et al., PNAS, May 31, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Global Climate changes differently in different regions?]
Coral cover on parts of Great Barrier Reef highest in decades
By Julia Mueller, The Hill, Aug 4, 2022
Link to report: Long-Term Monitoring Program, Annual Summary Report of Coral Reef Condition 2021/22
Continued coral recovery leads to 36-year highs across two-thirds of the Great Barrier Reef
By Staff, Australian Institute of Marine Science, 2022
Experts with Money Ignorant of Corals – Part 4: John Brewer Reef Fact Check
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Aug 4, 2022
There are None So Blind – Part 2: John Brewer Reef Fact Check
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, July 31, 2022
The Good News on Coral Reefs
By Peter Ridd, GWPF, 2022 [H/t Paul Homewood]
Climate Change causes record coral cover — What if we get too many reefs?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 4, 2022
Bounced Back” from Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 3, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Includes a video on Coral Spawning that goes into global warming propaganda. As shown in the warm Coral Sea, a warming of the cooler Great Barrier Reef will not kill corals.]
Barbados Plays the Climate Card
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Aug 1, 2022
“Maybe Barbados is threatened by sea level rise? Despite being an island nation, Barbados has no reliable tide gauge record. In fact, there are no reliable even medium-term (10-30 year) tide gauge records for any of the islands of the Windward Islands chain. Regional sea level rise data is also not dependably available. If we judge by the data from Puerto Rico, the Caribbean has been seeing the widely accepted 8 inches per century of sea level rise. “
US high tide flooding breaks records in multiple locations
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Aug 2, 2022
Link to report: The State of High Tide Flooding [HTF] and 2022 Outlook
By NOAA, Tides & Currents, 2022
This year, eastern U.S. and Gulf state communities will continue to experience an over 150% increase in HTF compared to the year 2000, limited only by periodic weather and climate events.
[SEPP Comment: Photo of a flood in Alexandria, VA, in 2015. Such events have occurred since the 1700s. The report does not assert any increase in the rate of sea level rise. Sea levels have been rising for 18,000 years.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute Sees No Extreme Situation With Arctic Sea Ice
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 30, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Extreme non-melting?]
Hudson Bay sea ice update: many polar bears are still on low concentration ice offshore
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Aug 4, 2022
Changing Earth
Tonga Eruption Blasted Unprecedented Amount of Water Into Stratosphere
By Staff, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Aug 2, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
Link to paper: The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Hydration of the Stratosphere
By L. Millán, et al, Geophysical Research Letters, July 16, 2022
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Shipping’s New ESG Rules Could Starve Millions
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 4, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is another international organization with policies to punish the poor to feel good!]
“Shut Down Animal Farming”–Monbiot
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 5, 2022
“Despite his rant about climate change, he lets slip his real objective, which is to return most of the world’s land surface to the wild.”
Lowering Standards
The Met Office’s Sea Level Trick
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 1, 2022
“This is an improper and thoroughly disreputable misuse of statistics.”
Flashback – Met Office Predict Wet UK Summers
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 5, 2022
“The Met Office has been busy trying to convince people that this year’s drought is linked to global warming.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
BBC Complain About Pre-Season Tours–Global Warming, Don’t You Know!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 3, 2022
Manchin’s climate buy-in comes at a cost for environmental review
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Aug 3, 2022
“Democrats are poised to carry out policy changes that might directly help one of the senator’s pet projects, but that activists say could hurt low-income voters and people of color.”
[SEPP Comment: Lower energy costs hurt low- income voters and people of color?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
The Climate Bill Is a Bold Energy Security Opportunity
By John Adams, Real Clear Energy, August 01, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The retired general has a twisted concept of security. There is nothing secure about electricity that fails frequently.]
Climate change is intensifying the water cycle, bringing more powerful storms and flooding
By Mathew Barlow, The Conversation, Phys.org, Aug 1, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshie]
Link to report: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis
By Working Group I, Sixth Assessment Report, IPCC, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Climate scientist says total climate breakdown is now inevitable: ‘It is already a different world out there, soon it will be unrecognizable to every one of us’
By Katherine Tangalakis-Lippert, Yahoo News, July 31, 2022 [[H/t Bernie Kepshire]
“Many climate scientists, he [the author] said, are more scared about the future than they are willing to admit in public.”
[SEPP Comment: Buy my book before it is too late!]
Scientists say the world needs to think about a worst-case “climate endgame”
By Tana Kraus and Ian Lee, CBSNews, Aug 3, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Communities need to prepare for attacks from herds of T. reges reproduced from amber?]
Stonewalling on Contradictory Results – Part 3: John Brewer Reef Fact Check
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Aug 2, 2022
No, the Puffin is not a Bellwether of Climate Change
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Aug 4, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
No, Met Office–A Dry July Does Not Mean Climate Change.
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 30, 2022
BBC: Scientists are Not Taking Climate Driven Human Extinction Seriously
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 1, 2022
“If a bunch of monkey ancestors with walnut size brains could figure out how to cope with global warming, I’m confident we could figure it out.”
Excusing Wind in Texas? (ICN in spin mode)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, August 4, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
‘Climate-Anxious’ College Students Troubled By Pesticides Need Science Lesson
By Cameron English, ACSH, July 25, 2022
Questioning European Green
Evidence for heat-pump price drop fails to add up
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 4, 2022
“The Energy and Utilities Alliance (EUA) has analysed the French heat pump market where
installations average £11,000, a figure similar to installing a heat pump in the UK.
“EUA point out that in 2021, 537,000 heat pumps were sold in France compared to 50,000 units
in the UK, suggesting that higher volumes do not reduce costs and presents a challenge to
current UK policy.”
[SEPP Comment: Another green myth.]
German cities start to turn off public hot water, lights, fountains, and may cancel beer too
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 31, 2022
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Worrying finding in California’s multi-billion-dollar climate initiative reveals problem with using forests to offset CO2 emissions
Press Release, EurekAlert, Aug 5, 2022 [WUWT]
Link to paper: California’s forest carbon offsets buffer pool is severely undercapitalized
By Grayson Badgley, et al. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Aug 5, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Fires may burn the guaranteed trees?]
Conditioned Air: Let’s Go! (climate politics at war with itself)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, August 3, 2022
Manchin-Schumer Energy Deal Proves the Power of The Swamp
By Robert Bryce, Real Clear Energy, August 02, 2022
“In short, this deal may be a long way from becoming law. But whether it becomes law or not, it shows again that the Washington Swamp will always deliver to special interests.”
What Does Senator Joe Manchin Believe He’s Getting?
By Benjamin Zycher, Real Clear Energy, August 04, 2022
A sustainable climate deal
By Debra Kahn, Politico, July 29, 2022
How Manchin-Schumer would change energy, from oil to solar
By David Iaconangelo, Heather Richards, Carlos Anchondo, Peter Behr, E&E News, July 29, 2022
Less Than Meets the Eye
Sizing up the reconciliation bill’s energy provisions
By Jordan McGillis, City Journal, Aug 1, 2022
“Start with the climate claim. The bill’s drafters tout its potential to reduce U.S. emissions by 40 percent by 2030, but that figure is relative not to current annual emissions but to emissions in 2005, which were 12 percent higher than they are today.”
Op-Ed: Recession denial by White House and Federal Reserve will plunge America into stagflation
By Jack McPherrin, The Heartland Institute, July 31, 2022
Litigation Issues
Judge rejects federal plans for fossil fuel mining in Powder River Basin
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Aug 4, 2022
“Melissa Hornbein, a senior attorney at the Western Environmental Law Center and one of the plaintiffs in the case, said in a statement. ‘That a federal judge ordered the Bureau to consider a no-leasing alternative and disclose to the public how many people will be sickened and die as a result of the combustion of federal coal is groundbreaking. The courts recognize the seriousness of the climate crisis and the impacts of fossil-fuel pollution. The BLM must now do likewise.’”
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Details & Analysis of the Senate Inflation Reduction Act Tax Provisions
By Alex Durante, et al. Tax Foundation, Aug 2, 2022
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Faulty Risk Assessment Has Real-Life Consequences
By Susan Goldhaber, ACSH, July 28, 2022
“PFAS, the “forever chemicals,” provides a perfect example of how faulty risk assessment can lead to real-world consequences that destroy people’s lives. This happens when federal agencies do not consider relative risk in their analyses and are blinded to the real-world implications of their actions.”
“When the government sets guidance or regulations, it must be based on scientific data showing real effects. This was not done in the case of PFAS. Nor were the economic consequences considered in a risk-benefit analysis. I hope that this issue will cause EPA to review their risk assessment procedure and reform it so that this does not happen again.“
Communities near 23 sterilization plants have increased cancer risk: EPA
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Aug 4, 2022
“The facilities use a chemical called ethylene oxide, which causes cancer, according to the EPA. Exposure to the substance has been linked to white blood cell cancers including types of lymphoma and leukemia as well as increased breast cancer risks in women.”
“Ethylene oxide (C₂H₄O) is a flammable gas with a somewhat sweet odor. Exposure to ethylene oxide may cause headache, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, breathing difficulty, drowsiness, weakness, exhaustion, eye and skin burns, frostbite, and reproductive effects. Workers may be harmed from exposure to ethylene oxide. The level of exposure depends upon the dose, duration, and work being done.” The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)
Energy Issues – Non-US
African nations expected to make case for big rise in fossil fuel output
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 3, 2022
“Leaders of African countries are likely to use the next UN climate summit in November to push for massive new investment in fossil fuels in Africa, according to documents seen by the Guardian.”
EU, UK Delay Cutting Off Russia From Oil Insurance Market
By Tsvetana Paraskova – Oil Pricce.com, Aug 01, 2022
National Grid reveals £54bn wind power network upgrade plan
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 3, 2022
“This is another cost that is never factored into the price of wind power:”
[SEPP Comment: Just another minor 50 billion detail!]
Energy Issues – Australia
Australia is last rat to jump ON the burning Climatitanic ship with symbolic 43% “SafeGuard” leap
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 6, 2022
“So now we have a 43% carbon reduction target, but no one really knows the details:”
Blistering electricity prices: It was the quarter the whole market broke and Australia got a $12.1b price signal
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 30, 2022
In “100%” Renewable Canberra people are queuing to hang out in warm libraries, and the air is more polluted
Kill trees, pollute the air, punish the poor and protect coal underground
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 3, 2022
Green Nightmare: Aussie Power Prices Rising Out of Control
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 1, 2022
Energy Issues — US
Data Centers Are Facing a Climate Crisis
Companies are racing to cool down their servers as energy prices and temperatures soar. And the worst is yet to come.
By Chris Stokel-Calker, Wired, Aug 1, 2022
“Outside of the IT equipment itself, the next-biggest consumer of energy in data centers is the equipment used to keep it cool.”
The Manchin/Schumer “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022” Will Inflate Fossil Energy Costs for Americans
By Staff, Institute for Energy Research, Aug 1, 2022
American Producers and Natural Resources Can Solve the Energy Crisis
By Carol Miller, Real Clear Energy, August 02, 2022
“America faces a two-fold energy crisis – record high gas prices, such as more than $4.00 per gallon in West Virginia, and the potential for rolling blackouts.”
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Pennsylvania and LNG to Germany
By Chris Brooks, Real Clear Energy, August 03, 2022
OPEC+ To Boost Production Target By 100,000 Bpd In September
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Aug 03, 2022,
Return of King Coal?
Coal industry ‘shocked and disheartened’ by Manchin climate deal
By Alexander Bolton, Aug 3, 2022
IEA: Global Coal Demand On Track To Match Record
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Jul 28, 2022
Might be more coal burned in 2022 than any other time in human existence
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 2, 2022
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Plant Vogtle #3 and #4: More Issues (costs, delay, partner opt-downs)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, August 2, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Miners Explore Amazon Basin To Support “Green” Energy; New York Times Horrified
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Aug 3, 2022
“And please don’t blame the people at the New York Times for undermining their own incessant and strident advocacy for green energy. They’re just following the essential principles of the official New York progressive orthodoxy as brilliantly distilled on the Manhattan Contrarian ‘About’ page, first posted back in 2012 — particularly this part:
“[U]sage of energy is a human right, but all actual known methods of producing energy are environmentally unacceptable. . . .
“It’s way too much to expect them ever to concede that having a modern society requires that some trade-offs be made.”
Why does wind energy decline during heat waves?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Aug 2, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
AEP’s Storage Delusions
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 30, 2022
“Maybe it is time that the Telegraph employed a proper energy expert to report on the topic.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Tesla Motorists Frustrated To The Limit, Have To Endure Hours-Long Charging Delays In Extreme Heat
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 29, 2022
“Holiday makers frustrated by long waits to charge their Teslas in Croatia.”
Carbon Schemes
Scientists: Enhancing Earth’s Surface Reflectiveness 32x More Effective Than Eliminating GHG Emissions
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Aug 4, 2022
Link to paper: Mapping potential surface contributions to
reflected solar radiation
By Brian V Smoliak et al 2022 Environmental Research Communications, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Have problems with the write up by Richard such as: “Meanwhile, the authors point out that the sum of the accumulated annual anthropogenic radiative forcing since 1750 is 2.72 W/m², a warming effect applied to the reduction of outgoing longwave radiation. Reducing the annual incoming solar radiation by 87 W/m² more than the background rate would thus have a 32 times larger impact on Earth’s radiation imbalance than all the accumulated forcing from anthropogenic GHG emissions.” (Boldface added) We can measure and estimate what is happening now, but do not know what it was in 1750, which was a cold period.]
Other Scientific News
Scientists Aren’t Sure Why Earth Is Rotating Faster
It’s a change from the past billion years or so
By mike Ford, Newser staff, Aug 1, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to second article: Earth Just Set A New Record For The Shortest Day
Somehow the shortest days are never in January
By Alfredo Capineti, IFLScience, July 29, 2022
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Punish Companies Who Downplay Climate Risk!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 31, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Why not eliminate all public funding to organizations, including universities, identified with studies that fail to test their models against all physical evidence?]
Evidence Free “Science”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 4, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Addressing foolish comments from Cambridge University ignoring earth’s climate variability.]
NASA Scientist Cries on Camera
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Aug 4, 2022
Video
Planet saving fake-meat burger fails
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 3, 2022
“Presumably the McBug Burger is coming soon. Cricket-burgers cool the climate?”
The End Of Snow
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 5, 2022
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2022/08/the-end-of-snow-4/
Text: https://realclimatescience.com/2022/08/the-end-of-snow-3/
ARTICLES
1. ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ Is an Insult to Used-Car Salesmen
Democrats hide a power grab behind a purported solution to a problem they themselves caused.
By Gerard Baker, WSJ, Aug. 1, 2022
TWTW Summary: Covered is the This Week section above.
******************
2. About That Schumer-Manchin ‘Deficit Reduction’
Even CBO says all the savings are five years out. Sure they are.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Aug. 3, 2022
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins:
“Progressives have demanded that President Biden cancel student debt since before he set foot in the White House. But now many seem to want him to hold off. Could they be worried that going ahead would jeopardize West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s support for a budget reconciliation deal?
“Last Thursday—the day after Mr. Manchin announced his agreement with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer—107 Democratic Members of Congress wrote a letter to Mr. Biden urging him to extend the pandemic pause on student loan payments and interest accrual past Aug. 31 when it is currently set to end. For how long, they don’t say.
“Interestingly, many of the signatories such as Senators Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Mr. Schumer have complained that the forbearance extensions are insufficient and demanded debt cancellation. The White House earlier this summer indicated it may discharge $10,000 per borrower, and that an announcement would come before Aug. 31.
“Doing so would cost the government $373 billion, according to a Brookings Institution estimate, and wipe out the $300 billion in putative budget savings from the Schumer-Manchin deal. There goes all of the supposed deficit reduction that Mr. Manchin negotiated in return for a climate spending blowout.
“It’s much worse than that because on Wednesday the Congressional Budget Office said that in the first four years through 2026 Schumer-Manchin will increase the deficit by $22.2 billion. Over 10 years it would reduce the deficit by a mere $101.5 billion.
“Those savings in the ‘out years, as Congress likes to call the far end of the CBO budget window, are almost surely fictitious.”
The editorial goes through recent examples of savings become fictitious and concludes with:
“After progressives get their tax-and-spending bill passed, their demands that President Biden cancel student loans will no doubt increase in volume again. He’ll surrender if he thinks it will stoke turnout among young people in November. Then Mr. Manchin will look as much like a budget chump as Republicans did for passing the chip spending bill.”
Steele: Infrared does not ‘bounce around’ when emitted from ocean/earth surface – There is no ‘back radiation’ at all. Infrared is all* trapped by GHGs near the surface. Then quickly, the energy from it is rapidly ‘stolen’ by N2/O2 mulecules in billions of collisions per second, thus the low atmosphere is warmed and the energy is retained in the atmosphere system in the N2/O2 mulecules, but soon after/immediately (by conduction) replacing the energy lost from the surface by the IR-photon emission – An internal energy circuit driven by the sun with a huge energy buffer (the global warming), it is – It would not be there without GHGs.
*except the ‘atmospheric window’
A simple example of how the atmosphere does not heat the ocean: no one raises the furnace thermostat to heat a kettle of water. But everyone knows that bringing a kettle of hot water into a room raises the room temperature.
Leonard Read’s tale if I am not mistaken.
The war on climate change is notable for being a war on the great early advancements of the human race; agriculture and combustion. In order to carry it out the zealots are making war on practically any modern, liberal advancement from equality before the law, equal access to credit, financial probity, to free speech and freedom of assembly. Even imposition of a state religion is not off the table. No consideration is too small to escape their notice.
To heat an area of ocean:
On a day when wind speed is less than Force 4, choose a clean sea area and spray it with light oil. Almost any oil will do, but, following Benjamin Franklin’s example, olive oil is good.
About 5ml of oil will spread and smooth one acre of ocean surface. This will lower albedo and reduce evaporation. The ocean will warm.
To warm larger areas of ocean, use more oil.
JF
(There is old data from the SeaWifs experiment which details how much oil pollution was getting onto the world ocean. I have not found recent data.)