From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
MAY 16, 2022
By Paul Homewood
The BBC says heatwaves are getting more intense in India:
An intense heatwave is sweeping through northern India with temperatures hitting a record 49.2C (120.5F) in parts of the capital, Delhi.
Summers have always been gruelling in many parts of India – especially in the northern and central regions. Even before air-conditioners and water coolers started selling in the millions, people had devised their own ways of coping with the heat – from keeping water cool in earthen jugs to rubbing raw mangoes on their bodies to ward off heat strokes.
But many experts say India is now recording more intense, frequent heatwaves.
Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, agrees that several atmospheric factors have led to the current heatwave. But adding to all that, he says, is global warming.
“That’s the root cause for the increase in heatwaves,” he says, adding that more research is needed to link climate change to other, less extreme weather fluctuations.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-61242341
Except that the facts don’t support this, in Delhi at least:
There is only complete data since 1973, but even this shows there has only been one day since 2000 when temperatures reached 46C in New Delhi, in stark contrast to the 1940s and 1990s.
https://climexp.knmi.nl/data/xgdcnIN022021900.dat
These temperatures are recorded at a site called Safdarjun on the edge of the city, near the airport, well away from the built up area.
The record of 47.2C was set there on 28th May 1944. (Wikipedia gives a record for New Delhi of 48.4C, set at the airport on 26th May 1998; on that day, Safjardun recorded 46.2C, which I guess says a lot about UHI at the airport.
The BBC is talking about temperatures hitting a record 49.2C (120.5F) in parts of Delhi. We await to see what Safdarjun recorded, but I strongly suspect that these “parts of Delhi” are highly affected by UHI, and therefore meaningless.
By the way, we should ignore any claim that May is early to see such heatwaves. It is actually May and early June when temperatures peak in Delhi. Once the monsoon arrives in June, temperatures decline.
Whether there is a new record set this week or not, it is clear that this is not part of any trend.
FOOTNOTE
According to Weather Underground, the temperatures at Safdarjun peaked this week at 114F, 45.6C
In other words, it did not even hit the 46C threshold:
https://www.wunderground.com/calendar/in/new-delhi/VIDD
Shame on the BBC for publishing this disinformation.
Another BBC example of confounding weather with climate. Ditto the recent South African floods. Ditto the recent German floods. More they try the worse they look.
Well, they’re not called the Baghdad Bob Corporation for no reason.
What an insult to Baghdad Bob (aka Comical Ali).
He at least wasn’t purporting that his cause was saving the planet.
(Just the erstwhile sweet gig with the Republican Guard)
“More they try the worse they look.”. True. But one has to ask what it is that they are actually trying to do – inform people or spread propaganda?
Easy. They force you to pay them to spread propaganda. Nice racket BBC has going in UK. Like a Mafia shakedown protection scheme. Pity US RICO does not apply to UK.
Disinformation 😉
The German floods were a 1 in 1,000 year event and undoubtedly climate related… as were the Chinese floods, the NW Canada floods and the South African floods and the two recent Australian flood events. Nearly as severe floods in South America didn’t make the 1 in 1,000 year level. all those extreme floods within one 18 month period – and you say its just weather….
aus is a 2fer la nina
Griff, are you employed by the BBC? It would certainly explain a lot.
Griff, can you reasonably refute this article pertaining to this event? (You know you cannot.) So you bring up past weather events that falsely claim once in 1,000 year events, and you ignore articles that prove those claims wrong as well.
Typical.
Yes. It’s just weather. It’s very big planet…So basic math…148 million square km of land. A basic “flood warning” area is roughly 1000 sq km…about the size of a county. So, there are roughly 148,000 geographic areas that could flood. So statistically, about 148 different flood warning areas can expect “thousand year flood” each year.
Statistics tell the story. Same with any other extreme events. The climate ambulance chasers will have an endless source of “extreme” events to choose from. It is a statistical certainty.
Mary,
good point but there is something you have overlooked and that is that it is only in our modern era that we know about thousand year floods all over the world virtually in real time. Even a century ago, if these happened in a more remote area far removed from major human settlements very few would have heard of these floods. There would have been few records. Going back further there would have been even fewer records.
The floods in Germany were the worst in 100 years. There were similar floods 100 and 200 years ago, so a new flood of a similar magnitude would be expected unless the climate was changing.
https://www.imb.org/2021/09/28/stories-emerge-germanys-worst-flood-100-years/
” I strongly suspect that these “parts of Delhi” are highly affected by UHI, and therefore meaningless.”
They are not meaningless. It was very hot, and people suffered. And newspapers reported it, as they should.
In fact the main location was Mungeshpur, on the edge of town. Here is the report in the Hindustan Times
“On Sunday, all 11 weather stations across Delhi recorded maximum temperatures above 45°C, but Mungeshpur and Najafgarh (in south-east Delhi) recorded readings above 49°C, numbers that the national capital has never clocked.”
It did note that those two stations are new, so there is not a long record there.
Nick, you do know that according to NASA official website the last time this happened was 2015 and hundreds of people died then also? Check before posting. I gave the NASA cite last time this came up. No way this is climate. Just India weather.
“Check before posting.”
Check what before posting? How about a link? “the last time this happened” where? What error do you find in my comment? Is the Hindu Times wrong?
Nick – before you ask the question “is the Hindu Times wrong?” perhaps you should check the Indian Met Office site – whilst the Hindu Times was waving the 49C figure around, the Indian Met Office has it officially registered at a high of 45C for the same day. On an interesting side note, NASA measured the same regional temperature outside of the Delhi Urban Heat Island as being 39C – now why don’t you ask yourself who was telling the truth? I’ll wait.
I was hoping you would fall for this previously posted trap. You did.
So here, proving you are intellectually lazy, is the precise reference you said could not find by simply reading my previous post:
earthobservatory.nasa.gov. 2015
and if that specific reference challenges you further try DoG20180000614.
Never factually go up again against this retired lawyer. Never ends well.
Rud,
Do you know about links? They are red and your readers can go to exactly what you are talking about. None of your “clues” lead to anything. Especially as you won’t divulge what sort of facts you are talking about.
Let alone identify what is supposed to be actually wrong with my comment.
You stupidity is exposed for all to see .. from your own link
“the automatic weather stations in the two neighbourhoods only started operations this year, so no past data is available”
So lets deal with your statement errors in reverse order
1.) There is no record of the sites at all … you said they have only a short record … so a LIE.
2.) “It was very hot, and people suffered” … okay but we have no way to know if that is any different to any other year there is no data at all.
3.) “They are not meaningless” .. by evidence of point 1 and 2 that is a LIE.
It’s clear you are either stupid or just LIED your butt off….. Stokes redefinition incoming or are you going to agree your statement is an error from start to end.
As I said
“It (HT) did note that those two stations are new”
But as the Hindu Times said, it is the first time such temperatures have been “clocked” in the Delhi area.
“They are not meaningless”
That was my case. Paul said they were. But it was hot.
The ground was probably hard, the bitumen black and the trees green … all completely meaningless
At the moment you are a specialist in Captain Freakin Obvious which is supposedly meaningful.
“You stupidity is exposed for all to see…. “
Mmmmm.
And people suffering is caused by CO2? Show us how peak temperatures are driven by CO2, Nick.
NO, it’s caused by the heat. As the BBC said in its lede (the headline also):
“An intense heatwave is sweeping through northern India with temperatures hitting a record 49.2C (120.5F) in parts of the capital, Delhi.”
Seems to be something the BBC should report.
So Nick is agreeing the heat wave has nothing to do with CO2 levels … a big admission there Nick. I don’t really think you believe that but in trying to not be shown to be wrong you walked right into that.
Think that is why most of us ridicule you because even when you are blatantly wrong you can never bring yourself to say that.
That is my single greatest disappointment with Stokes, revealing a lack of objectivity on his part. It is not unlike alarmists only seeing negative consequences of warming and increased CO2, and never admitting to positive outcomes.
“So Nick is agreeing the heat wave has nothing to do with CO2 levels”
No, I didn’t say that. I think it probably does. But the primary thing here is that it was very hot, and people suffered. That is what the various media was writing about, as they should. I commented here to say where the high readings were taken. No-one else seems much interested.
Complete waffle .. we got it was hot and uncomfortable that is captain bleeding obvious which is why no-one is interested.
The post you responded asked you a very direct question is CO2 causing the Heat. You said no and now a partial yes complete with waffle about it being hot.
Try answering the question asked or don’t nswer at all the Stokes deflection junk got old many years ago.
He did answer the question that was asked: “And people suffering is caused by CO2?” Not the one that you claim was asked.
Once again, current levels of atmospheric CO2 cannot cause record heatwaves recorded in the past. So there is contrary evidence to falsify your belief. It’s simply Indian weather, and has happened before.
Nick you are behaving troll like…
“But the primary thing here is that it was very hot, and people suffered.”
The primary thing here is the claim of CO2 caused unprecedented warming. How can you miss that? Are you a troll?
Nick continues, …
“That is what the various media was writing about, as they should. I commented here to say where the high readings were taken. No-one else seems much interested.”
Again, the same misdirection repeated. The fact that older stations did NOT record record T was in the main post. How can you miss that?
But they also chose to report their expert said: “That’s [climate change] the root cause for the increase in heatwaves,” Nick.
That would be a fair point, Nick, IF the BBC and similar media weren’t biased in what they report and what they don’t.
There are numerous stories every bit as newsworthy but which don’t support the climate change agenda, so the BBC ignores them. In other words the BBC peddles propaganda.
Thankfully, Joe Public isn’t as stupid as the BBC thinks, which is why the vast majority of the UK population doesn’t believe the world is facing the doom predicted by ridiculous climate models, along with the people who build them.
The implication, of course, is that this is down to man-made emissions. Yet there isn’t a shred of evidence to say this is anything other than Mother Nature doing what she always does, which is produce surprises.
Do you have pictures of where these warm temperatures were recorded?
Or don’t you know?
How hot?
“I tell you it was hot, real hot.
So hot you could do a bit of crotch-pot cookin’ “
Robin Williams
That hot, Nick?
I gave you an upvote Nick. Don’t listen to that heartless lawyer with the big arrogant Harvard ego. You didn’t attribute it to climate change so what exactly is his problem? Let me tell you the problem is: self-satisfied know-it-all lukewarmers like Rud Istvan are actually quite abusive, why, because in every instance they think they know better.
The fact is for the last few days New Dehli has had a taste of what Jammu-Kashmir has experienced for the last few months, high UV Index, ie ground level insolation.
Of course the all-knowing Rud who can quote the latest and greatest non-existent ECS for CO2, actually has no idea how the climate works and is therefore a complete waste of time.
The fact is India and many other places in Asia, the Middle East, and the US, among others have experienced extremely high levels of sunshine off and on for the past few years due to the solar cycle-induced La Nina.
“Don’t listen to that heartless lawyer with the big arrogant Harvard ego.”
Thanks, Bob. I don’t.
That is an interesting observation and goes a long way towards explaining warming.
Exactly. Stokes probably spotted that, but chose to ignore it.
The Stokes Shift, Mark 2
There is an old Indian saying, variously attributed to Noel Coward and Rudyard Kipling, that “Only mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the noon day sun.” Kipling was born in India so he probably had heard the deprecating remark. Anecdotally, it suggests that things aren’t much different today than they were in British colonial times — except that the cities are much larger and cars and A/C units are pumping more heat into the city streets.
It looks like it is almost all urban heat island effect! See the NASA ECOSTRESS image:
https://scitechdaily.com/extreme-indian-heat-wave-nasas-ecostress-detects-blistering-heat-islands/
India has just banned the export of grain because their crops were ruined by the heat.
Weather is not climate.
But there is no point in pretending the weather didn’t happen. It did. It’s a bad thing.
Especially as Ukraine’s agricultural exports are restricted this year too.
Ukraine accounts for about 12% of annual global wheat exports. That isn’t happening now, and it is Russia’s fault. Will be real bad for the Middle East countries like Egypt and Lebanon reliant on these wheat exports.
It is clearly partly “Russia’s fault” Yet there are many who contributed to the situation in Ukraine. Those debates are all over. Usually US and NATO actions, as well as Ukranian actions that likely created the situation as well, are simply ignored by the “Russia, Russia Russia ” assertion.
The main grain and pulse growing season in India (kharif) hasn’t started yet – if the fertiliser shortage is sorted and the weather is good then the kharif season should grow over 2/3rds of India’s grain and almost all of it’s pulses.
The hottest month of the Indian pre-monsoon season is April – if the mango showers during the pre-monsoon did their job then the heat shouldn’t have been an issue; what was the precipitation like in March-May compared with other years?
India’s winter wheat crop is harvested from February through May. This heat wave did not “ruin” the crop.”
https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/15/india-wheat-exports
“In February, the government forecast production of 111.32 million tonnes, the sixth straight record crop, but it cut the forecast to 105 million tonnes in May.”
A spike in temperatures in mid-March means the crop could instead be around 100 million tonnes or even lower, said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trading firm.
That’s a decline, but not “ruin”. India decided to stop exports because it’s fearful that there would be a “run” on their crop because of the Ukraine war, further inflating prices harming its own people.
What’s remarkable is that India has grain to export. That’s a recent and welcome development.
It’s been fifty years since there was a significant famine, and thanks to much-improved programs to deal with them, mass starvation there is a thing of the past.
I agree: this is weather, not climate change.
Delhi has an ‘urban cool island’ in May-June during peak summer & again from October to
December due to pollution.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/delhi-news/how-air-pollution-helps-urban-delhi-stay-cooler-during-the-day/story-hOvaTvFp6wyDK50J8Bqn6M.html
I suspect that the intense monsoon rains that start around late May and go on into September might also have some part to play in the cooling?
Recent TV news in Australia on this subject showed workers and scavengers on a huge rubbish dump which was ON FIRE – I thought it was a biassed site if you were seeking rational comments from locals about how hot the weather was.
Check it out yourself…
There are a modest few Wundergrounds around Delhi. here’s the one closest the airport..
May 2022 so far
In common with the other city centre station, it seems that yesterday (Sunday 16th) was the warmest this month at between 46 and 47 Celsius
Or this one, not very far east of the airport saw 44.6°C max on Sunday also
And here’s why it’s A Hot Place – bang next to and an offshoot/spur off the humongous desert that is Rajasthan.
An Indian version of Death Valley
See all around the city itself – perfectly no greenery, no water, no cooling – apart from the city-centre parks
Nick,
The article notes this –
” … India is now recording more intense, frequent heatwaves. … several atmospheric factors have led to the current heatwave. But adding to all that … is global warming.”
This promotes an idea that overall, if a station has shown a warming of (say) 1 deg C in the last 100 yers, that warming gets tacked onto heatwaves, so recent heatwaves are 1 C hotter than earlier ones.
I have tested this idea for several Australian stations and found that dominantly, the effect cannot be seen. It occasionally appears more in the adjusted ACORN-SAT data than in the raw data. Some examples follow.
You keep some records of Australian stations. It would be interesting to see if you found this idea correct or not in your station selections. It is obviously a fairly important idea for those who seek to spread doom about the future. Geoff S
http://www.geoffstuff.com/sixcity2022.xlsx
Here is a matching green gem from France:
https://www.france24.com/en/environment/20220511-france-s-unprecedented-drought-shows-climate-change-is-spiralling-out-of-control
Spiraling climate change! What will the fools think of next?
The antidote:
https://www.cfact.org/2022/05/10/consider-signing-the-world-climate-declaration-1/
Looks like they want to link any weather to climate change. And how does anyone link something to something else that does not exist. It can only be done through repetition of magnitude of accusations. But the link will still not exist.
Unfortunately the lie will persist, because it is so well funded.
The BBC has no shame
Slight relief from blistering heat as temperatures to fall by five degree celsius in Delhi- The New Indian Express
‘The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said Sunday’s heat wave was the most severe so far with mercury crossing 49 degrees in some parts of Delhi and in other north Indian regions. ‘
Going to need a link to your source material there Griffy as the Indian Met Office recorded a 45C high for Sunday 15th May not 49C. I call bullshit on this.
Incidentally, the article you link to shows that NASA was recording a temp of 39 outside of the Delhi Urban Heat Island.
A lot of the talking / narrative from the establishment tree huggign left should be considered disinformation, even using imperfect models that have known issues to project out damages hundreds of years from today to justify their positions.
The UHI is not “meaningless”. UHI has caused more warming for more people than greenhouse gasses ever will. Yet somehow, humans have survived and cities have thrived.
Once it was not the ferocious heat and drought NW India experienced in the 6-8 weeks leading up to the monsoon– affecting already-planted winter crop harvests—that Indians feared the most, but the failure of the monsoon itself, which could destroy successful plantings of the next crops during the two other growing seasons during late-spring to fall?
https://byjus.com/free-ias-prep/major-cropping-seasons-in-india/
Also, note this 2015 article blaming a double-failure (two consecutive years) of the monsoon on El Nino, not “climate change”.
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/monsoon-failure-twice-cursed/
“The effects of a ‘strong’ El Nino event ultimately proved too much, more than neutralising any ‘positive’ Indian Ocean Dipole, Madden-Julian Oscillations or other such countervailing weather phenomena.”
The charts on “Drought Years” are interesting.
Safdarjung is now in the middle of the city. However, it is in a green low-density zone of government buildings and bungalows of high officials, so I guess UHI is less.
These reports are written by the sort of people (intellectually and ethically deficient) who decide how people other than themselves should live, what those people need to believe to make them do that, and what message will make them believe it without question. They begin with their favoured conclusion and then work backwards to what “evidence” they must invent out of thin air. It used to be this process was the exact opposite of how science was done but these days many scientists are in the same camp.