The Week That Was: 2022-04-30 (April 30, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself–nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.” – Franklin Roosevelt, inaugural address, March 4, 1933, at the peak of the Great Depression.
Number of the Week: Up to $2.5 Trillion this year
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: Last week, TWTW discussed the closure problem with the global climate models used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers such as the US National Climate Assessments, NOAA, NASA, and EPA. Simply, there are too many unknowns and not enough defining independent equations for the models to produce a unique solution. As a result, the IPCC produces a range of solutions and none of them may be even close to the real solution to the question the IPCC pretends to answer: how much will temperatures increase with a doubling of greenhouse gases?
Christopher Essex highlighted a major problem with this multi-billion-dollar modeling effort. The models fail to recognize that the earth may cool. As Joe Bastardi has frequently stated on WeatherBELL Analytics, the numerical weather models don’t “see” cold. Yet it is cooling, not warming, that humanity should fear. We live in the Holocene, a 11,000-year warm Epoch in the Quaternary Period of 2.58 million years which features long times of extensive glaciation, called Ice Ages, interrupted by brief times of warmth. And the Holocene has been cooling for about 8200 years with brief warming periods of a few hundred years such as the Minoan, Roman, Medieval, and today. During these brief warm periods, civilization flourished, during prolonged cooling periods civilization, and humanity, suffered.
TWTW will discuss “Lessons From Paleoclimatology – Conveniently Ignored by the IPCC” a presentation by Earth Scientists Thomas P Gallagher and Roger C Palmer to the Irish Climate Science Forum (ICSF) and CLINTEL.
In addition, TWTW will bring up the lack of federal funding for reporting atmospheric temperature trends, where the greenhouse gases influence the Earth’s temperatures. And it will present issues regarding the assumption of a constant Earth albedo.
Further, another paper on blaming a global extinction on global warming will be discussed in which the editors of AAAS Science failed to grasp the geological changes that occurred for about a million years around 252 million years ago and failed to understand that the intensity of an acid is important and can be measured.
****************
Beware of Cooling: Earth Scientist Tom Gallagher begins his presentation of changing climate showing what Ireland and the Northern Hemisphere were like 19,000 years ago. Most of Canada was covered with ice. So was Ireland, and much of northern Europe. [No wonder Ireland has no native snakes.] Gallagher emphasizes his focus is on Climate Change (not weather!), climate change is driven by variations in incoming solar energy described by Milankovitch as well as other cycles.
To understand changing climate, we need to understand energy storage and accumulation including the mechanisms and lag times. Often these are missing from climate studies. Gallagher goes into energy transport including ocean currents and how continental drift influences ocean currents. Many papers by climate scientists looking at the history of climate ignore the importance of changes in ocean currents.
Rather than limiting his research to the past 150 years or so, Gallagher goes back to about the time dinosaurs became extinct, about 67 million years ago. He relies on data, (physical evidence, from proxies, fossils, including differences in isotopes of particular atoms) not theory. His data are the earth’s climate history encased in rock and ice as well as sediments in the oceans. He believes that by learning the past we can know more about the present, and are better equipped to forecast the future, but cannot do so with great certainty.
He goes through a graph of temperature and atmospheric CO2 over the Earth’s history to show that there is no correlation over time. Al Gore was wrong in his movie. He shows that sea levels tend to be influenced by glacial periods; more ice means lower sea level.
Over the past 50-60 million years there has been a temperature variation of about 18 ºC (32 ºF). We are now in a brief, quite steady warm period during an Era of pulsating glaciation. Southern glaciation (Eastern Antarctica) began about 34 million years ago. About 15 million years ago the western Antarctic ice sheet began. The northern ice cap (Greenland) began around 3 million years ago.
Gallagher states that the Sun is the primary energy source for climate; the oceans are the primary energy “storage” mechanism; ocean currents are the primary energy “transport” and “collection” vehicle; and the atmosphere has a negligible capacity to store long term climate energy. [Apparently these natural features of the Earth are too complex for the IPCC and its modelers; so their focus is on the atmosphere, which has a negligible storage capacity – and still get that wrong.]
After explaining why oceans are the best storage of heat (CO2 is a poor one), Gallagher gets to an important issue generally ignored by climate studies looking back in history: what causes changes to ocean currents? He finds that: 1) as continents have drifted, ocean passages have opened and closed over time; 2) as a result, there have been major changes in ocean currents; 3) these changes have affected energy collection and transport and climate.
Gallagher then gets into the issue of Continental Drift. For tens of millions of years starting about 66 million years ago, there was an open seaway near the equator, circulating the energy stored in the oceans. Temperatures were high, water levels were high, there were no ice caps. In the Eocene, about 56 million years ago, the Antarctic was still closed, there was no Drake passage. The Arctic Ocean was closed, temperatures 16-18 C above today. This warmth led a biological boom.
Starting in the Oligocene, about 34 million years ago dramatic climate change, cooling, began. The Drake passage opened, and the Antarctic circumpolar current began, allowing for the beginning of the east Antarctic ice sheet. India was colliding with Asia narrowing the equatorial seaway in that region. In the Mid-Miocene about 14 million years ago, the seaway in between North and South America narrowed as well as the seaway between Asia and Australia. The isolation of Antarctica increased with a widening of the southern polar current. The Antarctic ice cap extended to west Antarctica.
By 3.3 million years ago, the seaway through Panama closed and the seaway in Indonesia narrowed, terminating the Equatorial Current. These events gave us the Quaternary Period beginning with the Pleistocene Epoch which immediately proceeded the current Holocene Epoch. The Earth’s oceans were forced into a North-South pattern, the North and South ice caps and ice sheets expanded. The equatorial heat transport of the oceans no longer moderated the Milankovitch Cycles, and they began to cause large 100,000 and 41,000-year glacial cycles with drastic 10-degree C swings in temperatures.
The default climate condition during the Pleistocene is: Glacial, Cold and Dusty. During periods of glaciation in what are now the great bread baskets of civilization, the Great Plains, the plains of Europe, and Asia, became barren and subject to great dust storms. These storms created huge loess-covered areas. According to the Britannica:
“The world’s largest loess-covered areas lie between latitudes 55° and 24° N: in China on the banks of the Huang Ho; on the margins of the continental deserts of Inner Asia; in Central Asia in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, the foreland of the Tien Shan, and east of the Caspian Sea; and in Siberia along Lake Baikal and the Lena River and in vast regions in the southern parts of the catchment areas of the Ob and Yenisey rivers. In Europe there is an extensive, uninterrupted loess cover in the South Russian Plain, large spots and belts in the Danube Basin, along the Rhine, along the margin of the former inland ice cap in the German-Polish plain, and in the Paris Basin. In North America loess covers the plains of the Platte, Missouri, Mississippi, and Ohio rivers and the Columbia Plateau. In the Southern Hemisphere, between latitudes 30° and 40° S, the most significant loess regions include the “pampas loesses” of Uruguay and Argentina and parts of New Zealand.”
According to Gallagher, it is the accumulation of dust on icesheets that brought the Earth out of periods of glaciation, not some imaginary increase in carbon dioxide that has been speculated by since the time of Svante Arrhenius and it was used by the EPA to justify its Endangerment Finding.
Gallagher explains that his data sources include a new source of proxy data that became available in September 2020. [These data sources are ignored by the IPCC, especially by those who created the 2,000-year hockey-stick used in the Summary for Policymakers in the Sixth Assessment report (AR6, 2021)]. According to Gallagher, his data sources have high sample density and accuracy and exceptionally long time series analysis of 18O and 13C in microscopic plankton. He cites a 67-million-year record of temperature and CO2 concentration using isotopic analysis of Benthic Forams from sea sediment cores (Westerhold – Science, Sep 11, 2020). The multiple data sources used in AR6 are pieced together with no demonstration of continuity of measurement.
Gallagher goes on to explain we are living in a neoglacial, not the peak of the Holocene which ended about 8000 years ago. Humanity thrives in warm times, suffers in cold times. The Holocene had a number of abrupt warming periods of 1.5 to 3 degrees C and based on ice core graphics, the rates of temperature rise are similar to one another. Older Holocene warming rates were much faster than now. [The current “feared” 2 C warming is a political trick played by the IPCC and its followers.]
The primary influencers of climate are still here: Solar Cycle; Oceanic Currents; Oceanic Oscillations; and Regional Oceanic Energy. Further the beryllium isotope, Be10, correlates well with sunspot activity, and since 1830s the solar signal is stronger, bringing the Earth out of the Little Ice Age. [At best, carbon dioxide is a bit player in the complex play of the Earth’s climate.] In his video Gallagher covers far more. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.britannica.com/science/loess.
****************
Fact or Fiction? Each month TWTW checks the Global Temperature Report by the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville to see if the atmospheric temperature trends have changed. Usually, the report comes out a few days after the first of the month. This month it did not come out until April 27. To explain the delay, the report contained the statement that John Christy has been busy with a new position and:
“Please note that Spencer and Christy generate and provide these data on a volunteer-basis as federal funding was terminated a few years ago.”
The National Science Foundation (NSF) is a federal agency with a budget of about $8.8 billion for FY 2022 and a request of $10.5 billion for 2023. In FY 2017 (last data available) the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) had funding of $173 million, 67% from NSF, 3% from DOD, 3% from DOE, 4% from FAA, 5% from NASA, 6% from NOAA, and various other sources.
The climate modelers at NCAR have state of the art computers in a modern facility. They developed an imaginary model using imaginary data of what the atmosphere could be, rather than what it is. Comparing the funding levels between NCAR and the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville demonstrate that Washington prefers the public be informed with atmospheric fiction over atmospheric fact. See links under Measurement Issues – Atmosphere, https://ncar.ucar.edu/who-we-are/funding, and https://beta.nsf.gov/budget#:~:text=The%20President’s%20FY%202023%20budget,from%20the%20agency’s%20current%20budget.
****************
Earth’s Albedo: In its reports, the IPCC assumes a slightly increasing albedo for the earth to reflect sunlight. In his essays of Basic Climate Physics, AMO physicist Howard Hayden uses the (approximately) same constant. Hayden cautions the readers that his essays cannot be used for prediction but can only be used as a check on the veracity of the climate models. The IPCC makes predictions about temperature rise but never notices that the increased surface radiation due to that warming and the “radiative forcing” from greenhouse gases are utterly incommensurate. Further, if albedo increases, the difference between increased surface heat radiation and “radiative forcing” increases.
David Whitehouse of Net Zero Watch discusses how complex the Earth’s albedo is. There is no justification for assuming it will remain constant for decades to come. Yet, the UN and the Climate Crisis advocates are insisting we should establish energy policy on a questionable solution to a complex puzzle? No wonder China is not following the leadership of climate crisis advocates. See Challenging the Orthodoxy, Problems in the Orthodoxy, and http://www.sepp.org/science_papers.cfm.
****************
Additions and Corrections: Reader Ken Towe wrote that the late climatologist Dr. Reid Bryson commented himself on models…his own regarding the Bryson-Dittberner non-equilibrium model of hemispheric mean surface temperature (1976). In 1980 he wrote:
“We cannot have much confidence in modeled future climates unless the model realistically simulates the past.”
Apparently, Bryson understood the importance of a realistic understanding of the earth today before a projection can be accepted as plausible. For the non-equilibrium model see https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/33/11/1520-0469_1976_033_2094_anemoh_2_0_co_2.xml
****************
New Book: Anthony Watts is the primary author on a new book for teachers and students covering 30 prominent climate topics. TWTW reviewed a draft and found it excellent for its target audience. See links under: Seeking a Common Ground.
****************
Which Acid? When dissolved in water, carbon dioxide makes a weak acid, carbonic acid (H2CO3).
From Britannica:
“Carbonic acid plays a role in the assembly of caves and cave formations like stalactites and stalagmites. The largest and most common caves are those formed by dissolution of limestone or dolomite by the action of water rich in carbonic acid derived from recent rainfall.
“Carbonic acid is important in the transport of carbon dioxide in the blood. Carbon dioxide enters blood in the tissues because its local partial pressure is greater than its partial pressure in blood flowing through the tissues. As carbon dioxide enters the blood, it combines with water to form carbonic acid, which dissociates into hydrogen ions (H+) and bicarbonate ions (HCO3-). Blood acidity is minimally affected by the released hydrogen ions because blood proteins, especially hemoglobin, are effective buffering agents. (A buffer solution resists change in acidity by combining with added hydrogen ions and, essentially, inactivating them.)”
In brief, without carbonic acid, probably humanity would not exist. It is a weak acid that only partly dissociates into ions.
Volcanoes release significant amounts of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, hydrogen sulfide and hydrogen halides (hydrogen fluoride, hydrogen chloride, hydrogen bromide and hydrogen iodide). When mixed with water (or water vapor) sulfur dioxide makes sulfuric acid (a strong acid) or sulfurous acid (a weak acid). When mixed with water, hydrogen sulfide (H2S) makes a very corrosive acid, sulfuric acid. When mixed with water, hydrogen halides can make hydrofluoric acid (a weak acid) and hydrochloric acid (a strong acid).
Yet, we see another study published by AAAS Science that fails to recognize that volcanoes release compounds far more dangerous to life than carbon dioxide. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy.
****************
SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving. The entire Biden Administration won in 2021, so individuals in it are still eligible.
The voting will close on July 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. The awardee will be announced at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on August 14 to 16 at the South Point Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. Registration: https://aaps.wufoo.com/forms/qb79fo31o62uh1/; Hotel: https://be.synxis.com/?adult=1&arrive=2022-08-14&chain=6903&child=0¤cy=USD&depart=2022-08-15&group=DOC0811&hotel=11548&level=hotel&locale=en-US&rooms=1
***************
Number of the Week: Up to $2.5 Trillion this year. According to Rystad Energy, thanks to the high oil and gas prices, payments to governments for oil and gas production are expected to reach an all-time high of $2.5 Trillion. Saudi Arabia will be the biggest beneficiary.
In light of these high payments to governments, comments by Benjamin Zycher on President’s Biden’s resuming leasing federal lands for oil and gas exploration are illuminating:
“The Biden administration announced late last week that it would resume leasing of federal lands for fossil fuel exploration and production, but at a scale (144,000 acres) about 80 percent smaller than the 733,000 acres that had been nominated by energy companies for evaluation by the Department of the Interior. (Over 90 percent of the acreage to be offered for lease is in Wyoming.) Moreover, the royalty rate to be paid on future fossil production from these leases is to be increased from 12.5 percent to 18.75 percent.”
Is Washington creating the “price gouging” it blames on oil companies? See links under Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes and Washington’s Control of Energy.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
You can’t just turn down the sun?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 27, 2022
“‘The technology necessary for geoengineering has never been successfully demonstrated,’ he concedes, ‘but already many economists are sure that it will happen at some point this century. That’s because its theoretical costs are little more than a few flights, a spraying device, and a couple million tons of sulfuric acid – expensive, to be sure, but not out of the reach of your average island nation or climate-concerned billionaire.’”
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Lessons from Paleoclimate Conveniently Ignored by the IPCC
By Thomas P Gallagher & Roger C Palmer, ICSF and CLINTEL, Apr 21, 2022 [H/t Jo Nova]
The Big 5 Natural Causes of Global Warming- Part 1: Varying Atlantic Water Transport
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Apr 25, 2022
A Walk On The Natural Side
https://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2022/04/the-big-5-natural-causes-of-global.html Transcript
Predicting Atlantic Hurricanes Using Machine Learning
By Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, et al. Atmosphere, Apr 29, 2022
The Annual Climate Disaster Swindle
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 27, 2022
Link to report: Global Assessment Report on Risk Reduction: Our World at Risk: Transforming Governance for a Resilient Future
By Staff, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2022
“Every year the UN publish a fraudulent report like this one. And each year it is faithfully reported by the media, who have no interest in telling the public the real facts.”
AR6 Model Failure Affirmed: ‘No Model Group Succeeds Reproducing Observed Surface Warming Patterns’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 25, 2022
Link to paper: Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5-T2m
By Nicola Scafetta, Geophysical Research Letters, Mar 2, 2022
Earth’s Albedo Puzzle – A Question Of Balance
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Apr 26, 2022
Link to paper: On the rise and fall of Earth’s strong clear-sky hemispheric albedo asymmetry
By Michael Diamond, et al. ESS.Ar, Apr 6, 2022
Earth Day’s failed predictions of 52 years ago & the amazing environmental improvements that have occurred since
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Apr 22, 2022
Leading Renewable Energy Expert Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt Declares Germany’s Green Energies Have Already Failed
By Josef Kowatsch, Via P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 22, 2022
“Why? According to the coalition agreement, the coalition government wants to expand alternative energies even more, but at the same time also build 50 new gas-fired power plants to stabilize the fidgety power supplied by sun and wind.”
Osman et al. 2021: a flawed Nature paleoclimate paper?
By Nic Lewis, Climate Etc. Apr 25, 2022
“Nature tends to publish papers that use novel approaches and/or provide newsworthy results, which have not yet stood the test of time. Given that background, and that peer review often fails to spot problems with methods or calculations, I read Nature papers with particular care.’
Claim: Unchecked Global Emissions on Track to Initiate Mass Extinction of Marine Life
By Staff, WUWT, Apr 28, 2022
Comments by Rud Istvan at the bottom.
“The best of all (sarcasm) was how they validated all this by showing they could simulate the Permian extinction (when almost 90 percent of marine organisms went extinct). I have done considerable research on the Permian extinction. It was almost certainly caused by the vast Siberian Traps flood basalt eruptions lasting almost 1 million years. This released vast amounts of SO2, which cooled the atmosphere but grossly acidified the oceans on washout.”
[SEPP Comment: Address the flaws in the paper immediately below.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Unchecked global emissions on track to initiate mass extinction of marine life
Press Release, Princeton University, Apr 28, 2022
Link to paper: Avoiding ocean mass extinction from climate warming
By Justin Penn and Curtis Deutsch, AAAS Science, Apr 28, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
“Eight years left to turn the ship”: Scientists share how climate change could change daily life
By Li Cohen, CBS News, Apr 27, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Energy Expert: Recent Warming Is “Moderate”…Germany’s Push To Green Energies “Has Reached End Of the Line”
So that the gas doesn’t run out
By EIKE, Via P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 23, 2022
Hijacked Earth Day Promotes Climate Falsehood and Poverty
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Energy, April 24, 2022
Energy and Environmental Review: April 25, 2022
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, April 25, 2022
Out of the mouths of Ubers
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 27, 2022
“To the usual list of argumentation fallacies (ad hominem, appeal to authority etc.) we propose to add ‘laundry list fallacy’. When you can’t give a single well-supported example, rattle off a laundry list of unsubstantiated speculations and throw the burden on your listener to disprove them all.”
Change in US Administrations
“A Promise Kept: Biden’s War on American Energy”
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, April 26, 2022
“The Biden administration nominated Saule Omarova to serve as Comptroller of the Currency. Omarova’s past comments speak for themselves: ‘A lot of the smaller players in [the fossil fuel] industry are going to, probably, go bankrupt in short order—at least, we want them to go bankrupt if we want to tackle climate change,’ she said.”
[SEPP Comment: According to Wikipedia, this professor of Law at Cornell Law School who graduated from Moscow State University in 1989 on the Lenin Personal Academic Scholarship had a thesis titled: “Karl Marx’s Economic Analysis and the Theory of Revolution in The Capital.” She withdrew her nomination on December 7, 2021, as US intelligence was reporting the buildup of Russian forces on the border with Ukraine.].]
Biden’s Climate Ambitions Are All But Dead
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 28, 2022
“It is interesting that the US public widely recognise the link between high Federal spending, money printing and inflation, in a way that we don’t here in the UK. They blame Biden’s massive spending bills and increased borrowing in 2021 for much of the current inflation.”
Biden says US spending billions to make military vehicles ‘climate friendly’
President Biden said the climate crisis is ‘an opportunity to do things we wanted to do’
By Brooke Singman, Fox News, Apr 22, 2022
“It is unclear what steps the Biden administration is taking to transition U.S. military vehicles from their current status to ‘climate friendly.’”
[SEPP Comment: TWTW’s review of the speech found nothing meaningful on the subject, just a salad of illusions, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.]
Column: More polarization – Africa/Asia investing hundreds of billions in hydrocarbon infrastructure out of necessity, the west arranges deck chairs on the Titanic
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Apr 21, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
China Promotes Coal in Setback for Efforts to Cut Emissions
By AP, NPR, Apr 25, 2022
China ignores climate pledges, tops list in building new coal plants
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 28, 2022
“To put the numbers into perspective, China currently has 1300GW of coal power capacity, so the extra 176GW will increase this by 13%, before taking any retirements into account.”
[SEPP Comment: China is not following the example of the climate leaders in Washington?]
My New Book – Soaring on Amazon – Get your copy now!
By Anthony Watts, [co-author] WUWT, Apr 25, 2022
Link to: Climate at a Glance for Teachers and Students: Facts on 30 Prominent Climate Topics
By Anthony Watts, et al. Amazon.com
Science Advice Under Pressure
By Roger Pielke, His Blog, Apr 27, 2022
Video
Varcoe: Canada can hike oil output and decarbonize — ‘but at significant cost,’ says RBC report
A new report examines the complex balancing act today surrounding climate policy and security of supply concerns
By:Chris Varcoe, Calgary Herald, Apr 26m 2922
Link to plan: 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan
Canada’s Next Steps for Clean Air and a Strong Economy
By Staff, Environment and Climate Change Canada, @022
“Opening sentences of the plan: “On climate change, the science is clear – we must take action now to protect our planet and secure our children’s future. But the economics are clear too – to build a strong, resilient economy for generations to come, we must harness the power of a cleaner future.
We can’t stop climate change – so let’s embrace it
Exclusive: Brent Smith notes ‘the arrogance of modern man’ thinking Earth can be ordered around
By Brent Smith, WND, Apr 22, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
DeSmog on Vaclav Smil (this deep thinker is largely correct)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, April 28, 2022
“Vaclav Smil is basically right. Climate alarm is much less certain than the physical reality of energy density, which runs the world.”
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Wakening From the Fog of Peace
By Ned Mamula & Ann Bridges, Real Clear Energy, April 26, 2022
Models v. Observations
Oh those plants
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 27, 2022
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Global Temperature Report, March 2022
By Staff, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, April 27, 2022
Breakthrough in estimating fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions
Press Release, University of East Anglia, Apr 22, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
Link to paper: Novel quantification of regional fossil fuel CO2 reductions during COVID-19 lockdowns using atmospheric oxygen measurements
By Penelope Pickers, et al Science Advances, Apr 22, 2022
Changing Weather
Siberian Smoke Reaches the Pacific Northwest
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 26, 2022
“April is a big month for smoke or dust to move from Asia to the Northwest. The jet stream is still reasonably strong and either dust storms in the Gobi desert or fires in Siberia can supply the particles that can move rapidly across the Pacific.”
US Having One Of The Coldest Years On Record
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 28, 2022
April 29, 1909 Tornado Outbreak
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 28, 2022
Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
Warming boosted food production during the Little Ice Age
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 27, 2022
“So warming was good for European agriculture from 1500-1800, and to the extent there’s been warming since 1960 it has also corresponded with increasing global agricultural output. But starting next year that process will go into reverse and warming will henceforth be bad. Computers say.”
Marine mollusk shells reveal how prehistoric humans adapted to intense climate change
Press Release, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Apr 22, 2022
Link to paper: Human forager response to abrupt climate change at 8.2 ka on the Atlantic coast of Europe
By Asier García-Escárzaga, et al. Nature Scientific Reports, Apr 20, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The beginning of the first Holocene cooling, the Greenlandian.]
Changing Seas
CDN by the Sea: Den Helder, the Netherlands
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 27, 2022
“As the PSMSL explains, earthquakes, ground water extraction, sedimentation and even delayed effects from the last ice age can cause the land adjacent to the ocean to move up or down. The one thing we don’t expect to see is a sea surface level that never varies.”
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
The Evidence Keeps Piling Up: Iceland Is Not Cooperating With The ‘Global Warming’ Agenda
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 28, 2022
Link to latest paper: Reversible glacial-periglacial transition in response to climate changes and paraglacial dynamics: A case study from Héðinsdalsjökull (northern Iceland)
By David Palacios, et al. Geomorphology, May 31, 2021
Arctic Sea Ice Stabilizes, No Trend Reduction In More Than 10 Years As Solar Cycle Starts Off Weakly
By Die kalte Sonne, Via P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 22, 2022
Glacier geometry and flow speed determine how Arctic marine-terminating glaciers respond to lubricated beds
By Whyjay Zheng, The Cryosphere, Apr 21, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
Whaling crews and their encounters with polar bears and sea ice in 17th century Svalbard
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 26, 2022
Link to article: Blood and Bone, Tears and Oil: Climate Change, Whaling, and Conflict in the Seventeenth-Century Arctic
By Dagomar Degroot, The American Historical Review, Apr 26, 2022
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Climate Misanthropes Say Fighting Climate Change is More important than Food, Reliable Energy, and Peace
By H. Sterling Burnett, WUWT, Apr 25, 2022
Lowering Standards
Airbrushing The Pause From History
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 23, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The MET Office has contracted the disease of altering data for political goals which has long infested NOAA and NASA.]
Two Complaints Upheld Against Justin Rowlatt [BBC]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 28, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Is a large portion of Washington State in extreme drought
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 24, 2022
“The essential message is that weather and climate data do not support the claims of extreme or severe drought in eastern Washington this year.”
[SEPP Comment: The labels (and colors) used in the USDA Drought Monitor are interesting. In intensity, they go from Abnormally Dry (yellow) to Moderate Drought (light orange); to Severe Drought (medium orange) to Extreme Drought (bright red) to Exceptional Drought (dark red). Fairly common dry seasons may be classified as severe or extreme.]
Ozone may be heating the planet more than we realize
Ozone in the atmosphere found to have weakened one of Earth’s main cooling mechanisms
By Staff, NSF, Apr 27, 2022
Link to press release: Ozone is heating our planet more than previously thought
By Andrei Ionescu, College of Natural & Agricultural Science, UC Riverside, Mar 31, 2022
Link to paper: Stratospheric ozone depletion and tropospheric ozone increases drive Southern Ocean interior warming
By Wei Liu, et al. Nature Climate Change, Mar 3l 2022
[SEPP Comment: Using CMIP5 models to find more hockey-sticks. Apparently, the NSF does not understand the influence of greenhouse gases on the atmosphere.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Bloom Energy Converts U.S. Fuel Cell Fleet to ‘Certified’ Low-Leak Natural Gas
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Apr 21, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Voters Don’t Want To Pay For Green Levies
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 26, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Comedy Gold: How To Cope With Your “Climate Anxiety”
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 25, 2022
Tomlinson’s Beef against Beef (Houston Chronicle editorialist says we’re irrational)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, April 29, 2022
We have ways to make you notice
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 27, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
The Green Goblins Terrifying Our Kids
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Apr 30, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
In case you didn’t notice it
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 27, 2022
New electricity pylons will ‘carve up’ the countryside, opponents claim
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 24, 2022
“It’s a reminder of many hidden costs of renewable power.”
Expanding the Orthodoxy
CEI Comments Explain Why FERC’s Greenhouse Gas Regulatory Policy Cannot Pass a Cost-Benefit Test
By Marlo Lewis, Jr. CEI, Apr 25, 2022
Questioning European Green
Energy firms asked to keep burning coal as ministers fight to keep lights on
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 28, 2022
“This is a start. But the problem of European dependence on Russian gas is not going away. The future of coal power in the UK needs to be guaranteed until at least 2030. That means scrapping the arbitrary target of closure by 2024, along with putting in place a formal Capacity Market contract till 2030.
“Coal power stations need some certainty for their planning, not the sort of hand to mouth begging on offer.”
[SEPP Comment: Coal power is needed to keep them in office?]
Funding Issues
Giant global asset managers have $82 billion in coal projects, $468 billion in oil and gas
By Catherine Clifford, CNBC, Apr 20, 2022
The Political Games Continue
Ditch ‘net zero’ commitment and lose 1.3 million votes, Boris Johnson warned
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 25, 2022
Litigation Issues
Climate FOIA: Public Wins, Court Orders Virginia AG Office to Comply with the Law Re Bloomberg Docs
2018 lawsuit, which already revealed previously-denied memo, other emails, takes major step forward
By Web Editors, Government Accountability and Oversight, Apr 20, 2022
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
High Oil And Gas Prices Provide Trillions Of Dollars In Tax
By Rystad Energy, Oil Price.com, Apr 27, 2022
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Does The UK Subsidise Fossil Fuels?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 29, 2022
“There is no god-given rule that says all goods and services must be charged at 20% VAT, and even the reduced rate of 5% is still a tax. It is absurd to claim that this is a subsidy.
“After all, food is zero-rated for VAT, but does anybody claim that food is subsidised? Of course not.”
Italy to Pilot Social Credit System for ‘Climate-Friendly’ Behaviour
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 27, 2022
“The reference to China’s social credit system is a warning of what is to come. Orwellian does not even start to describe it.
“And let us be very clear – what may begin as voluntary rewards programme will quickly develop into a compulsory one, which actively punishes.”
Renewable Subsidies Have Cost £78 Billion In Last 10 Years
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 23, 2022
Energy Issues – Non-US
Climate Colonialists Disrupt African Pipeline, Perpetuate Poverty
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Energy, April 28, 2022
“However, the global war against fossil fuel has now reached Ugandan soil and extremists are determined to stop this lifesaving, economically critical project.
“Vanessa Nakate of StopEACOP rants against the pipeline in a recent column in the New York Times, saying the project would bring poverty and destruction to the people of Africa. She also references extreme weather in implying the pipeline will worsen the climate.
“But her reasons for opposing the pipeline are scientifically inaccurate and logically senseless.”
“Climate extremists like Vanessa are fostering the continuation of abject poverty in Africa — a continent with the lowest level of electrification and highest rates of poverty in the world. Vanessa claims that the pipeline is another colonial project subjecting Africans to slavery. But, it is Vanessa and her ilk who are the colonialists and would-be slave masters.”
Rystad: Oil Demand To Sink By 1.4 Million Bpd
By Julianne Geiger, Oil Price.com, Apr 22, 2022
“The drop in oil demand will likely come from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, soaring inflation, China’s covid-inspired lockdowns, and supply chain disruptions.”
Vallance Cycles To The Rescue!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 29, 2022
“Since when was it the Government’s Chief Scientific Advisor’s job to discuss political policy matters?
“And instead of virtue signaling, shouldn’t he give the public the actual facts? For instance, that if UK eliminates all emissions, it will have a zero effect on the world’s climate?”
Energy Issues – Australia
Rafe Champion guest post. Carbon taxes and RE fails as usual in SA.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 27, 2022
Energy Issues — US
America’s Energy Answers Are Right at Home; Why Look Elsewhere?
By Patrice Douglas, Real Clear Energy, April 28, 2022
U.S. Refiners Plan Rare Move Heading Into Summer
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com – Apr 21, 2022
“Instead of focusing on boosting the production of gasoline in the summer driving season, this year U.S. refiners will be looking to raise diesel and jet fuel runs, as the global market of distillates is very tight following the Russian war in Ukraine and supports high refinery margins for those products.”
Washington’s Control of Energy
Oh, you noticed that, did you?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 27, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Will greens calling for decarbonization recognize that regulation through the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) may not be environmentally friendly?]
The Defense Production Act Cannot Increase Critical Mineral Production Without Streamlining Project Permitting
By Debra W. Struhsacker, Real Clear Energy, Apr 27, 2022
“Because NEPA has a different purpose than the body of federal and state environmental-protection laws, Secretary Granholm’s call to streamline permitting could be achieved without reducing environmental safeguards.”
Some Fallacies Attendant Upon the Biden Resumption of Fossil Leasing
By Benjamin Zycher, Real Clear Energy, April 24, 2022
U.S. Democrats to ‘go after’ oil companies over gasoline prices
By Richard Cowan and Diane Bartz, Reuters, Apr 28, 2022
[SEPP Comment: After price increases they helped create! See link immediately above.]]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Gimme More – E&Ps Continue To Prioritize Rewarding Shareholders As Cash Flows Soar
By Nick Cacchione, RBN Energy, Apr 22, 2022
The Oil And Gas Industry Is Booming Despite Net-Zero Ambitions
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Apr 25, 2022
It’s Getting Increasingly Expensive To Boost U.S. Oil Production
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com. Apr 20, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The political risks of investment are real; the social cost of carbon is not. Inflation is biting everyone.]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Green Light for Project Pele, Defense Department’s Mobile Nuclear Microreactor Demonstration
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Apr 21, 2022
“The ROD [DOD Record of Decision] indicates Project Pele will comprise a high-temperature gas-cooled (HTGR) mobile microreactor that will be capable of producing 1 MWe to 5 Mwe.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
The Energy Transition Has A Major Metal Problem
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Apr 21, 2022
Advancing Renewable Energy Is a Critical Investment in Our Planet
By David Hardy, Real Clear Energy, April 27, 2022
“David Hardy is the chief executive officer of Ørsted Offshore, North America.”
Honolulu, Hawaii: Top “Solar Superstar” in the USA
By David Middleton, WUWT, Apr 26, 2022
20,000 Volts Under the Sea
By Doomberg, Blog, Apr 23, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
From Reek to Remedy, an Economical Energy and Climate Solution
By Roy Mathews, Real Clear Energy, April 25, 2022
Experts question ‘green’ claims for electric vehicles
By Scott McClallen, The Center Square, Apr 22, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
“The world’s top lithium producers are South America, where Argentina and Chile provide 93% of U.S. lithium. Amnesty International reports thousands of child laborers mine cobalt for lithium batteries. Additionally, a Guardian report noted that children as young as six work in the mines.”
[SEPP Comment: According to World Atlas.com using 2014 data: Australia was #1, with 13,000 metric tonnes,, Chile # 2 with 12,900; China # 3 with 5,000, Argentina #4 with 2,900.
According to Visual Capitalist, in 2020 Australia was #1 with 40,000 tonnes, Chile #2 with 20,000, China #3 with14,000 and Argentina #4 with 6,200 tonnes. Chinese companies have spent over $5 billion on lithium mining projects.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
White House Calls on Defense Production Act to Bolster EV Battery Supply
By Levi McAllister, Power Mag, Apr 21, 2022
Electric Vehicle Battery Costs Soar
By Staff, Institute for Energy Research, Apr 25, 2022
Electric Vehicle Battery Costs Soar – IER (instituteforenergyresearch.org)
“For a smaller vehicle like the Hongguang Mini, the best-selling electric vehicle in China, the higher battery costs added almost $1,500—about 30 percent of the sticker price for the 27 horsepower microcar. Because margins in the battery industry are wafer thin, cost increases will be passed onto carmakers and, in most cases, customers.
“In 2021, the $105 per kilowatt hour average cost was a huge decline from the cost of over $7,500 in 1991. Automakers and suppliers in mining, refining and battery cell production are making investments to diversify raw material sources. The industry was looking toward a battery cell cost threshold of $100 per kilowatt-hour, as a signal electric vehicles were reaching price parity with fossil-fuel equivalents.”
China’s Blood Batteries
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 29, 2022
Video
Lithium shortages impact Tesla, other EV carmakers, numerous tech markets
The price of lithium has surged over the past year
By Bradford Betz, FOXBusiness, Apr 25, 2022
Best Car Technology
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 26, 2022
Ford Expects Combustion Engine Production To Continue “Until 2040”
By ZeroHedge, Oil Price. Com, Apr 25, 2022
California Dreaming
California Is Gearing Up to Win a Darwin Award
By Brian Gitt, Real Clear Energy, April 27, 2022
Health, Energy, and Climate
New Study: Total Number Of Attributable Deaths Due To Cold In Pune, India, Nearly 7 Times Higher Than Heat Deaths
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 26, 2022
Lung Cancer, Smoking, And Air Pollution – Vive La Difference!
By Fred Lipfert, PhD, ACSH, April 20, 2022
“Demonstrations of smoking’s health effects comport with each of these criteria; studies of community air pollution have met none of them.”
Air Pollution: What’s So Special About PM2.5?
By Fred Lipfert,, ACSH, Apr 3, 2020
Socioeconomic Health Risks Are Not Equal
By Chuck Dinerstein, MD, ACSH, Apr 18, 2022
“Smoking and physical inactivity are the biggest, baddest choices. There are other socioeconomic factors to consider, and I am sure researchers will be reporting on them.”
Other Scientific News
CERN restarts Large Hadron Collider in quest to unlock origins of the universe
By Jonna Lorenz, Washington DC (UPI), Apr 22, 2021
Other News that May Be of Interest
A Mysterious Cloud Circle Appears Near Victoria and the San Juans
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 27, 2022
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
11 Questions You Didn’t Think to Ask When It Comes to Homebuying and Climate Change
By Jon Gorey, Apartment Therapy, Apr 18, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Will the solar panels survive the oncoming tidal wave?]
Carbon Collect unveils MechanicalTree™ in partnership with Arizona State University
MechanicalTree™ will collect carbon from the atmosphere and help accelerate the fight against climate change
Press Release, Arizona State University, Apr 22, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
Klaatu barada nikto! “Scientists” warn aliens about our climate “crisis”!
By David Middleton, WUWT, Apr 21, 2022
China electric vehicle explodes while charging
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 26, 2022
“But they are good for the environment!”
ARTICLES
No Articles this week.
Is their a full paper or transcript of the Gallagher video?
re: Lessons From Paleoclimatology presentation by Tom Gallagher and Roger Palmer to the ICSF: The ICSF presentation was in Apr 2020 (https://www.icsf.ie/lecture-series). They effectively present the findings of Ralph Ellis and Michael Palmer’s “Modulation of Ice Ages …..” paper, published in 2016 (https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Modulation-of-ice-ages-via-precession-and-feedbacks-Ellis-Palmer/c45f3442dce6ed0760f6e85af157f54436d5a89f). I saw no sign that they gave credit to Ellis and Palmer. I hope that they did and that I missed it, or that Roger Palmer is a close relative of Michael Palmer. In any case, it’s good that Ellis and Palmer’s theory is getting more exposure.
So, keeps the restriction in place while raising the cost. Yet sold as a relief measure. Conniving, fraudulent, &^%%#&(s.
“The Biden administration announced late last week that it would resume leasing of federal lands for fossil fuel exploration and production, but at a scale (144,000 acres) about 80 percent smaller than the 733,000 acres that had been nominated by energy companies for evaluation by the Department of the Interior. (Over 90 percent of the acreage to be offered for lease is in Wyoming.) Moreover, the royalty rate to be paid on future fossil production from these leases is to be increased from 12.5 percent to 18.75 percent.”
Biden’s commitment to inflation remains strong.
Thank you for the link to Powermag re Project Pele microreactor. The concept is long overdue. https://www.powermag.com/green-light-for-project-pele-defense-departments-mobile-nuclear-microreactor-demonstration/
“long overdue”
Hmmm . . . enriched uranium in a transportable reactor, presumably transportable over public highways . . . what could possible go wrong with that?
Some hints: traffic accidents, terrorists (domestic or foreign) attacks, source of “dirty bomb” material, useful life versus disposal of radioactive waste, possible failure modes of the reactor itself, etc., etc.
Sure, let’s go for it.
Not just energy storage and lag, but the full accounting of transport mechanisms. Heat transfer (plus work input which has an equally large effect on changes to internal energy), is actually pretty complicated. A person cannot just look at radiation transfer.
This was an excellent contribution. I am looking forward to the next four installments. The discussion brought to mind a talk by Walter Pittman I attended perhaps 15 years ago where he pitched the idea that ice ages come to an abrupt end by the opening of a polynya in the Arctic ocean. According to his idea the opening produces a sudden input of heat that melts the Arctic ice. However, Jim Steele’s essay shows a more nuance and suggests recent observational evidence of something like what Pittman was proposing. In fact, there are many heat transfer mechanisms at play all at once not just advective heat input from the now uncovered ocean surface — radiation etc., and also during the end stages of an ice age the Arctic has been cut off from moisture transport from lower latitudes. Over at Jim’s blogsite the comment by Ric Werme regarding the 1930s was also pertinent.
As regards the “Beware of Cooling” entry at the very top of the lineup of subjects for this week in the above article, I highly recommend Dr. Scotese’s beautiful animation of plate tectonics at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_iEWvtKcuQ
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this video is worth at least an order-of-magnitude more!