The Annual Disaster Fake News Story

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

It’s Whack-A-Mole time!

A disaster-weary globe will be hit harder in the coming years by even more catastrophes colliding in an interconnected world, a United Nations report issued Monday says.

If current trends continue the world will go from around 400 disasters per year in 2015 to an onslaught of about 560 catastrophes a year by 2030, the scientific report by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction said. By comparison from 1970 to 2000, the world suffered just 90 to 100 medium to large scale disasters a year, the report said.

The number of extreme heat waves in 2030 will be three times what it was in 2001 and there will be 30% more droughts, the report predicted. It’s not just natural disasters amplified by climate change, it’s COVID-19, economic meltdowns and food shortages. Climate change has a huge footprint in the number of disasters, report authors said.

https://apnews.com/article/climate-science-united-nations-natural-disasters-fa1d16ad7d59c7629bb1a9a955a494b0

The UN report referred to is utterly fraudulent. Below is the key chart from the UN Press Release:

https://www.undrr.org/gar2022-our-world-risk#container-downloads

They claim an increasing trend since the 1970s, when miraculously it seems there were hardly any disasters at all!

In fact, the table from the actual report makes it clear that the number of disasters has in reality been declining since 2000, a fact which makes a nonsense of the projected rise of 40% by 2030:

https://www.undrr.org/media/79595/download

But why the rapid increase since 1970?

We have been down this road before. The data comes from EM-DAT the International Disaster Database. They only began publishing data in 1998, and in 2004 warned that earlier data was incomplete:

http://web.archive.org/web/20210906114530/https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/09/07/the-international-disaster-database/

In other words, most disasters were simply never officially recorded prior to 2000. To put it into some sort of perspective, EM-DAT define a disaster below:

https://www.emdat.be/sites/default/files/whats%20new/wn_disastersinnumbers_2021.png

How many disasters would have been officially logged by the UN or any international body fifty years ago, when the threshold was so low? Indeed many much bigger disasters don’t appear in EM-DAT in those early years, such as the Red River Delta flood in Vietnam, which killed an estimate 100,000 people in 1971:

https://worldhistoryproject.org/1971/8/1/red-river-delta-flood-of-1971

Yet EM-DAT ignore this flood entirely:

By Paul Homewood

It’s Whack-A-Mole time!

image

A disaster-weary globe will be hit harder in the coming years by even more catastrophes colliding in an interconnected world, a United Nations report issued Monday says.

If current trends continue the world will go from around 400 disasters per year in 2015 to an onslaught of about 560 catastrophes a year by 2030, the scientific report by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction said. By comparison from 1970 to 2000, the world suffered just 90 to 100 medium to large scale disasters a year, the report said.

The number of extreme heat waves in 2030 will be three times what it was in 2001 and there will be 30% more droughts, the report predicted. It’s not just natural disasters amplified by climate change, it’s COVID-19, economic meltdowns and food shortages. Climate change has a huge footprint in the number of disasters, report authors said.

https://apnews.com/article/climate-science-united-nations-natural-disasters-fa1d16ad7d59c7629bb1a9a955a494b0

The UN report referred to is utterly fraudulent. Below is the key chart from the UN Press Release:

image
https://www.undrr.org/gar2022-our-world-risk#container-downloads

They claim an increasing trend since the 1970s, when miraculously it seems there were hardly any disasters at all!

In fact, the table from the actual report makes it clear that the number of disasters has in reality been declining since 2000, a fact which makes a nonsense of the projected rise of 40% by 2030:

image
https://www.undrr.org/media/79595/download

But why the rapid increase since 1970?

We have been down this road before. The data comes from EM-DAT the International Disaster Database. They only began publishing data in 1998, and in 2004 warned that earlier data was incomplete:

image
image
image
http://web.archive.org/web/20210906114530/https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/09/07/the-international-disaster-database/

In other words, most disasters were simply never officially recorded prior to 2000. To put it into some sort of perspective, EM-DAT define a disaster below:

image
https://www.emdat.be/sites/default/files/whats%20new/wn_disastersinnumbers_2021.png

How many disasters would have been officially logged by the UN or any international body fifty years ago, when the threshold was so low? Indeed many much bigger disasters don’t appear in EM-DAT in those early years, such as the Red River Delta flood in Vietnam, which killed an estimate 100,000 people in 1971:

image

https://worldhistoryproject.org/1971/8/1/red-river-delta-flood-of-1971

Yet EM-DAT ignore this flood entirely:

image

Every year the UN publish a fraudulent report like this one. And each year it is faithfully reported by the media, who have no interest in telling the public the real facts.

5 14 votes
Article Rating
54 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
atticman
April 27, 2022 2:04 pm

It all depends what you mean by a “disaster”…

Gregory Woods
Reply to  atticman
April 27, 2022 2:15 pm

Climate alarmism is a disaster…

Scissor
Reply to  atticman
April 27, 2022 2:17 pm

C’mon man, I haven’t seen so many disasters since Jimmy Carter moved from Plains to DC.

TonyL
Reply to  Scissor
April 27, 2022 4:16 pm

You have not been keeping up with current events, I see.
Now I am going to give you a disaster scenario that will scare you witless. By the end of it, you will be wishing for the good old days when it was only “Worse Than We Thought”.

Disaster Scenario:
Historically, Jimmy Carter was given the label of worst president in modern times.
Joe Biden makes Carter look good by comparison.
President Kamala Harris makes Biden look good.
President Nancy Pelosi makes Harris look good.

Old Man Winter
Reply to  TonyL
April 27, 2022 5:59 pm

Brandon & San Fran Nan lost a bit to aging. So Giggles should be last as lately she
has given AOC a run for her money. That’s saying a lot as AOC single-handedly put
an end to dumb blonde jokes!

HotScot
Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 28, 2022 2:18 am

I have it on good authority AOC dyes her hair dark brown.

HotScot
Reply to  TonyL
April 28, 2022 2:17 am

Biden makes Boris look like a genius.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  HotScot
April 28, 2022 3:36 am

No. Boris isn’t intent on destroying his nation.

Alan
Reply to  atticman
April 27, 2022 2:20 pm

Really, is an F-1 tornado that damages a mobile home a disaster? I can see where they’ll claim every weather event that causes any damage is a disaster.

Richard Page
Reply to  Alan
April 27, 2022 2:52 pm

How many people were in the mobile home?

DonM
Reply to  Richard Page
April 27, 2022 4:10 pm

3 adults, 5 kids, 4 dogs and 2 cats.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  DonM
April 27, 2022 9:31 pm

Ah, mostly empty

CoRev
Reply to  Alan
April 28, 2022 5:22 am

“I can see where they’ll claim every weather event that causes any damage is a CLIMATE disaster.”

There fixed for Ya.

Nicholas McGinley
April 27, 2022 2:18 pm

Things are better than ever, but everything is about to become worse than ever.

Or so alarmists would have everyone believe.
It seems to be something ingrained into the psyche of a certain type of person, because such alarmism has existed as long back as we have records.

When I saw this story in the news yesterday, I did not even have to read it to know it is just one more example of these same people and their ceaseless efforts to scare people, and they have long since resorted to “making stuff up” as a modis operandi.

April 27, 2022 2:19 pm

It’s official – climate change increases the risk of the reappearance of the deadly Madgeburg unicorn – ancient enemy of humanity:

https://youtu.be/bqBAk-8V328

TonyL
Reply to  Phil Salmon
April 27, 2022 4:28 pm

With those massive front legs and those “elephant feet”, the best description of the front of the animal might be a 2-legged hippopotamus with a great big unicorn style horn.
One hell of a biped.

Like the “nightmare creature” from Forbidden Planet, this thing could only be the product of someone’s really bad dream.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  TonyL
April 28, 2022 3:39 am

Forbidden Planet: One of the better science fiction movies, especially considering when it was made.

Bob
April 27, 2022 2:22 pm

The UN needs to change it’s study title to “An Increase in the Number of Disasters Reported”.

Mike McMillan
Reply to  Bob
April 27, 2022 3:08 pm

You could probably bake a pie with all the picked cherries.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Mike McMillan
April 27, 2022 3:41 pm

True, but it will be really had to swallow any of it.

Frank from NoVA
April 27, 2022 2:24 pm

‘If current trends continue the world will go from around 400 disasters per year in 2015 to an onslaught of about 560 catastrophes a year by 2030,…’

Who makes up these units of measurement for the progressives? Is there a conversion table somewhere? It’s bad enough when they cite energy in terms of ‘Hiroshimas’ and ‘homes’. Sheesh.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
April 27, 2022 3:36 pm

They hit their own self-defined jackpot when one of them realized they can rename “bad weather” as “climate change”, and after a while, they can call the existence of bad weather a “climate crisis”.

Rob_Dawg
April 27, 2022 2:29 pm

The phrase you will never hear: “per capita.”

Coeur de Lion
April 27, 2022 2:32 pm

“By 2030” is the key. Far enough away to forget. And the cause is of course global warming which has stopped for seven years and counting.

HotScot
Reply to  Coeur de Lion
April 28, 2022 2:21 am

If around 1ºC since pre industrial times, emerging from an ice age can be described as ‘warming’.

Rud Istvan
April 27, 2022 2:39 pm

This is one way you know they (UN IPCC and ilk) have got nothing. Same lies year after year, easily debunked year after year as here.

Arctic summer sea ice did NOT disappear by 2014. In fact the low was again over 4 Wadhams last summer.
Polar bears are thriving.
Sea level rise has not accelerated.
Maldives did not disappear.
CMIP6 models diverged more, not less, from reality than CMIP5.
Climate disasters (really weather) have not increased.

To paraphrase again Solzhenitsyn from Gulag:
We know they lie.
They know we know they lie.
We know they know we know they lie.
And yet they lie.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Rud Istvan
April 28, 2022 3:46 am

“Maldives did not disappear.”

Yeah, the tv program “The Price is Right” just gave away a vacation to the Maldives as a prize yesterday. I told my daughter, “See, they are still above water, and taking in vacation money”.

Life is good!

Nicholas McGinley
April 27, 2022 3:39 pm

Irrational desperation is an amazing thing to behold.

Question: Is there any lie a grifter will not tell to protect his racket from being disrupted?

All thieves are liars.

LdB
April 27, 2022 3:39 pm

You should overlay the trend data from the record history start of 2020 on their graph to make it more visual. This is sort of typical of Climate Science ™ and data they torture.

Elle Webber
April 27, 2022 4:23 pm

We did an awful lot of money collecting in school in the 70s to send to places like Biafra and India because of mass famines for that disaster graph to start at such a low level. And didn’t a Chinese dam burst in 1975 after heavy rains killing tens of thousands? To say nothing of 30% (300 million affected) of Chinese people in danger of starvation?

Maybe disasters affecting brown people weren’t counted then? Kind of non-woke of the UN to ignore them, I must say.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Elle Webber
April 28, 2022 3:51 am

The UN is flat-out lying to the people and they know they are lying. It’s a political game with very high stakes, so they blatantly lie counting on the fact that most people are not up to speed on the science. The UN is trying to scare people into doing the will of the UN.

Doug
April 27, 2022 4:24 pm

So far as California is concerned. I live here and the only way responsible government will take over is after greater catastrophes. I hope we have,hundreds of fires , no water or power …perhaps , finally real Americans will step up and drive the Democrats out of power and out of the state . I would welcome a dictatorship as a replacement

TonyL
Reply to  Doug
April 27, 2022 4:52 pm

I would welcome a dictatorship as a replacement

I got news for you. That is Plan A.
There appears to be a majority of Americans who are just too asleep to clean up the government they have. They opt for sleepwalking into disaster, then they will beg for someone, anyone, to clean up the disaster. Your preference for a dictator will be sounded out loud and clear by the majority. See for example, Venezuela, not long ago the richest and most prosperous country in Central and South America.

In this whole mess, California leads the way.
Just think, Governor Gavin Newsom recently survived a recall vote. They are doomed.
{Meanwhile, some Cal. residents are fleeing the catastrophe, and bringing their insane voting preferences with them. They are incapable of learning.}

DrEd
Reply to  TonyL
April 28, 2022 6:49 am

No, too many people want the “free stuff” from the government that is paid for by the producers in this country. And the evil Dems keep promising more to them to buy their votes. You know what, it’s working.

2hotel9
April 27, 2022 4:39 pm

The 24/7 “news” cycle has to be fed so everything is a disaster.

rah
April 27, 2022 5:02 pm

I get weary of their continual lying. When it comes to natural disasters this world has become a better fed, safer, and generally healthier place to live as man and his societies have evolved. In fact out of the three out of the four top killers in the last century were all man made with the 1918 flu being the only natural one.

Old Man Winter
April 27, 2022 5:37 pm

The biggest climate disaster occurred in 1988 when the IPCC was approved by the UN! 🙁

Alastair Brickell
April 27, 2022 5:55 pm

Many thanks for debunking this once again for us.

Climate believer
April 27, 2022 11:41 pm

“even more catastrophes colliding in an interconnected world,”

Get a grip dude… these UN technocrats are turning their BS up to 11 with their doom porn for the masses.

#disbandtheUN

Pat Lane
April 27, 2022 11:56 pm

A disaster is any event that can be distorted to support the dangerous AGW hypothesis.

Editor
April 28, 2022 12:02 am

Officially, EMDAT says its data can ONLY be used for evaluating societal impacts, and NOT for determining if climate is changing. It can also be shown that impacts, in the form of mortality, is declining.

(edited for a typo)

EMDAT flood data and statement.jpg
griff
April 28, 2022 12:39 am

I point out that in just the last year we have had FIVE ‘1 in 1,000 year’ flood events covering Germany, China, western Canada, Australia and South Africa, with serious flooding in south America, plus a number of record heatwaves…

The real effects of climate change are definitely having a severe impact, no matter what Mr Homewood alleges

Climate believer
Reply to  griff
April 28, 2022 2:09 am

You might want to have another look at your cause and effect analysis on that one.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  griff
April 28, 2022 6:14 am

griff the Swiss Re institute recently published its annual report on natiional catastrophes with a headline you’ll love: ‘National Catastrophes in 2021: the floodgates open’ (30th March 2022).

“There has been an upturn in flood insured losses over the last 20 years (sounds good hey griff?)…………...”The main driver of rising flood losses has been exposure accumulation due to economic growth and urbanisation. However many other factors such as aging or lack of flood control infrastructure, ‘soil sealing’ in urban areas, more rainfall from tropical cyclones and climate change effects also impact loss outcomes”

So climate change has the least effect.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  griff
April 28, 2022 7:45 am

Have you surtailed your energy consumption yet Griff?
You certainly haven’t read the article

We have been down this road before. The data comes from EM-DAT the International Disaster Database. They only began publishing data in 1998, and in 2004 warned that earlier data was incomplete:

Where is the data for your five 1 in a 1000 year claim?

Reply to  griff
April 28, 2022 12:26 pm

wow that is low statistically we should have several more than that globally. you need help

marty
April 28, 2022 12:45 am

What goes down must go up! Its absolutely possible that disasters will clime since they declined last 20 years. Its the old game: hide the decline!

HotScot
April 28, 2022 2:14 am

Why is  EM-DAT even publishing data from before 1998 if it’s inaccurate?

Has anyone written to the author of this nonsense and demanded a retraction?

Chris Wright
Reply to  HotScot
April 28, 2022 3:20 am

Yes, Kip Hansen wrote to EM-DAT last October to question their data on global natural disasters, which appears to show a dramatic increase since 1970. EM-DAT’s response was honest, they confirmed the increase was due to an increase in reporting as Kip had surmised.
The WUWT post is here:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/10/21/em-dat-disaster-database-creating-data-disasters/
It makes very interesting reading. It also shows how corrupt the UN and their followers are.
EM-DAT’s data on deaths from extreme events shows a dramatic fall since 1900. Of course, if this database also suffers from early under-reporting then the fall in deaths would be even greater.

At the opening of FLOP25 Guterres, the UN General Secretary said:
“Climate related natural disasters are becoming more frequent, more deadly, more destructive, with growing human and financial costs”.
The EM-DAT data clearly shows that the UN General Secretary was lying.
Chris

Last edited 3 months ago by Chris Wright
Tom Abbott
Reply to  Chris Wright
April 28, 2022 4:05 am

Human-caused Climate Change is the biggest science con game in human history. It has done untold damage to human society.

D M
April 28, 2022 4:20 am

More US disasters are Mann made. The official definition of a disaster includes requesting help from the central government. Significantly, in the US, since the 1970s, communities and states have requested more and more frequently outside assistance to deal with natural events they traditionally handled themselves. They request help more frequently because it is more socially acceptable and because US officials are eager to make themselves look helpful.

MJB
April 28, 2022 4:23 am

Anyone else notice the switcheroo on stats for comparing past and present?

“If current trends continue the world will go from around 400 disasters per year in 2015 to an onslaught of about 560 catastrophes a year by 2030, the scientific report by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction said. By comparison from 1970 to 2000, the world suffered just 90 to 100 medium to large scale disasters a year, the report said.”

They juxtapose 1970 to 2000 with present values implying they are comparable, but then qualify the historic as only “medium to large” disasters while the present and future values are all disasters. Their own graph shows nearly every year from 1970 to 2000 was over 100 total disasters. This is not an accident and bordering on fraudulent in my opinion.

If a financial disclosure included similar language/logic it would likely run afoul of regulatory requirements and result in penalties.

Kevin kilty
April 28, 2022 7:49 am

I think there is a loop in this post. Perhaps my browser is acting funny, but the entire post seems repeated…

Andy Pattullo
April 28, 2022 10:58 am

I would love to see a registry of political disasters – harm done to a large segment of society by the idiotic decision-making of political elites who lack all vestiges of critical thinking. Now there would be a rising trend of concern.

%d bloggers like this: