Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t Dr. Willie Soon; IPCC Lead Author Glen Peters and friends are dismayed some people have misinterpreted a call for immediate emissions reductions to mean that we still have a few years to act.
Climate change: Key UN finding widely misinterpreted
By Matt McGrath
Environment correspondentIn the document, researchers wrote that greenhouse gases are projected to peak “at the latest before 2025”.
This implies that carbon could increase for another three years and the world could still avoid dangerous warming.
But scientists say that’s incorrect and that emissions need to fall immediately.
…
“Global greenhouse gases are projected to peak between 2020 and at the latest by 2025, in global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5C,” the summary states.
Most media outlets including the BBC concluded that meant emissions could rise until 2025 and the world could still stay under 1.5C.
“When you read the text as it’s laid out, it does give the impression that you’ve got to 2025 which I think is a very unfortunate outcome,” said Glen Peters, from the Centre for International Climate Research in Oslo, and an IPCC lead author.
…
So what went wrong?
…
“Because models work on 5-year increments, we can’t derive statements with higher precision,” said Dr Joeri Rogelj, from Imperial College London, and an IPCC lead author.
…
Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61110406
I can understand Glen Peters and Dr. Joeri Rogelj’s disappointment. I mean, they go to all the trouble of writing what is probably the bleakest, most doom laden climate report in history, only to accidentally leave a sliver of hope, an excuse to delay climate action. And like water falling through a leaky bucket, even the BBC slipped through the crack in their narrative.
Better luck next time alarmists.
Better ban the IPCC and followers from flying everywhere in executive jet aircraft and even commercial flights immediately.
Repeal the EU exemption on emissions tax for fellow travellers, they all must make the sacrifice now before it’s time to move the goal posts again.
The IPCC uses the Soviet model of governance: “to each according to their needs”.
Translation: gang/cult leaders have very huge needs!!! 😮 😉
Next time the climate COP will be held in Cannes or Monte Carlo, so all the world’s MEGA-YAGHTS would assemble there; yachts held in custody would be temporarily released!
The John Kerry $billionaires would bemoan the end of the world by 2030, while eating FREE Russian Caviar, at $500/lb, on the rear deck
The poor slob peons would be allowed to admire the $billionaire gliterati from afar.
Zelinski and his $billionaire friend/backer Kolomoisky would also be there to round up $support for rebuilding the totally ruined Ukraine into a paradise of environmental virtue
The end is nigh. After hearing this yearly, or more, for the past 35 years you’d think a body would be sick of it – I’m not. My weekly entertainment.
Predicting imminent doom is more like a 58 year history, with Silent Spring. The Green Blob just changes subjects.
It’s ironic that wind turbines are now a major threat to bats and birds, especially raptors. I wonder what Rachel Carson would think.
Ooops!
Beats finding another job that pays as well and without the prestige and power
I see it in all bureaucracies – keep the golden goose alive no matter what the cost. The EPA is great example. 25 years ago pollution in my area was a real issue but now their goal is to eliminate every ppb then it will be ppt and then ppq.
MY GOD, MEN, OUR PHONY BALONEY JOBS ARE AT STAKE!!
Terry, these alarmists need to suffer some more, they should move to northern Canada and spend the winter there soaking up all their muted Arctic warming at their leisure, Maybe then they will get a proper perspective on life as normal people know it and welcome warmer Spring weather as it is now in the UK.
As for the Extinction R types, they should be sent to Rwanda or the Congo to enjoy the heat they are so worried about and try to survive in the jungle without their modern technology. Perhaps we could make a soapy out of their trials !
Bravo Bob! When are bona fide climatologists going to stand up and put an end to this climate doom nonsense? The current level of atmospheric CO2 is the equivalent of four cents out of a hundred dollars. That tiny amount can have no noticeable effect on World temperature regardless of forcing, flux or formidable looking equations.
So 3 years till ManBearPig’s #ClimateScientology kills us all?
I’m not worried. I have one of those prepaid funerals.
All warmists should stop breathing out, right now. To save the planet…
I can understand the concern GHGs ought already to have past the peak.
Do the Chinese realize that, as they continue to spend huge sums on what will very soon become stranded assets like the recently completed coal-dedicated 1,813.5 km (1,127 mi) Haoji Railway that carries 200 million tons of coal per year from Mongolia to Central China 😱?
Even worse, their 4 billion ton a year coal burn is headed for 5 billion tons. If there is a peak the Chinese are still climbing and nowhere near the top.
No, no. That’s wrong! Mongolian coal and Chinese power plants = Good.
It is only Western coal and power plants=Bad!
Didn’t you get the memo?
But didn’t they promise to start reducing their FF emissions by 2030?
No, they promised in 2030 to CONSIDER whether or not to taper off, subject to achievement of economic goals.
Negotiated by VP Joe Biden and SoS John Kerry,
Remind me again what the US go in that bargain?
Lunch?
No wait. We probably paid for the lunch.
Chris, the Chinese do not believe they are going to be stranded assets. Of course they do not. They do not believe in global warming, they have no intention of lowering their emissions.
They are not positively planning to increase emissions. They just don’t care either way about them. Increased emissions are an accepted and inevitable consequence of what they really do care about, economic growth.
They do care about real air pollution, particulates etc, and especially in cities, and they will reduce them. Because its a bad look and it leads to discontent and health issues. But CO2 emissions? They are not a factor in their decision making. As your railway example shows.
As for coal, they already mine and burn more coal than the rest of the world put together, and they are increasing their installed base of coal fired power generation at a huge rate every year. And financing it in other countries.
Yep, dig coal, burn coal, make electricity, run manufacturing plants, build windmills and solar panels cheaper then anyone else can and sell to idiots. That’s China way.
Wrong! They very much believe in global warming as a major business and political power play opportunity that our liberal politicians are presenting to them on a silver platter.
“Global greenhouse gases are projected to peak between 2020 and at the latest by 2025, in global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5C,” the summary states.”
The sentence above is written by academics. If I wrote this at work, someone would write back on Teams “WTF dude, just write we project greenhouse gases to peak between 2020 and 2025.”
But they get paid to produce words.
Ah but they are not projecting the peak, just reporting what the (or some) models show it would have to be, which it will not be.
My read on the report is this:
https://www.cfact.org/2022/04/08/the-dread-1-5-degree-target-is-dead/
That peak is not possible!
I guess the argument is that we cannot emit more than 500 Gigatons after 2020. We (the world) are currently going at the rate of 37 a year and rising. Probably by 2030 we will be doing around 45 a year. Say for the next ten years the average is 40. Then in only 2032 we’ll be over the supposed limit.
In fact, by 2040 we will probably have done close to double of the 500 which they are claiming must not be exceeded on pain of global disaster.
You’re right, its obviously going to happen. And it will be interesting to see how the movement reacts. My own forecast is that it will be with strengthened and more fanatical belief and commitment.
What its going to take to extinguish it is a combination of things, economic and social disasters from Western attempts to enforce Net Zero on their mutinous electorates, continued disregard by China, India etc, and failure of the promised global climate disasters to materialize.
But I am afraid this insanity is going to take a long time to work out. I think we probably have 15-20 years of it, and the infliction of huge misery on the poor of the West as the elites persist regardless.
The UK in the last few days has had an influential voice proposing the legal banning of the purchase of all home heating boilers. Heat pumps should be made mandatory (or no-one will buy them). This doesn’t strike the author as being any reason for doubting the policy of moving everyone to them.
This is not just anyone advocating banning boilers. This is Sir John Armitt, Chairman of the National Infrastructure Commission.
The way to look at this is, its an instance of Mass Psychogenic Illness. Or Group Think. Like a stock market bubble, or an instance of religious mania. Or those poor fools in Africa who listened to their mad children and slaughtered all their cattle and then starved.
Mass hysteria among a a small group of the well connected in the West, is what we are looking at.
And we are also inxreasingly seeing the reality of what they are proposing to inflict on us.
Net zero and zero Covid are equally stupid. My are leaders so dumb 😔
Crazy times. There seems to be a little of one stone, two birds happening in Shanghai.
On the 15th April 2021 CO2 was 418ppm. This year on April 15th 420ppm. Every ppm is 5.5 GtCO2. 26GtCO2 is sequestered by August.
Global temperature on 15th April as a decline from same date last year.
Isn’t it weird that [CO2] and temperature are out of sink on almost all timescales?
Good point.
from the text “global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5C,”
Yes, many people are missing the context.
The exercise is like folks saying what a cloud looks like. It might look like a giraffe, but it is just a cloud. A 1.5C pathway is a concept, more cloud-like than real.
Do they realize that to build the millions of new solar panels and wind turbines. we will need massive amounts of coal for the silicon in the panels, petroleum for the blades, cobalt for the turbine generators, not to mention the steel and concrete for the rest of them (I’m not even mentioning batteries). If we immediately stop emissions, we won’t have enough resources to make the things we need to stop the emissions. Catch-22 anyone?
I love the concept
.
greenhouse gases are projected to peak “at the latest before 2025”.
.
Currently they will still be increasing until well past 2030.
”“Because models work on 5-year increments, we can’t derive statements with higher precision,” said Dr Joeri Rogelj, from Imperial College London, and an IPCC lead author.”
It’s not the precision we care about dear Dr., It’s the accuracy. How’s that going for you?
Is that the climate mafia walk’n down the street?
Singin’, “Do wah diddy, diddy, dum diddy do”
They blow hot and cold…
“Incredibly, current climate pledges could keep heating below 2C – but our work isn’t over
The battle to get countries and companies to sign up to net zero is being won.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/14/current-climate-pledges-heating-below-2c-net-zero
They won’t be asking people what they think – they know
It’s worse than we thought … the world ended 3 years ago and no one noticed.
Bugger! What channel was that on? Can i find it on catch up – wouldn’t want to miss the end of the world. It will only happen once….oh, wait
As always, the question is: who is the ‘we’ that has such a short time to act?
You will notice that its the US, UK or Australia. Its never China, India, Indonesia, Russia.
If these guys were sincere they would be arguing that all countries, the entire globe, including the big emitters, must act now. In fact, they would be protesting most strongly against the world’s largest emitter, China.
But what they actually do is demand that countries doing around 25% of global emissions need to get to Net Zero now, and those doing 75%, well, its only fair they should carry on emitting and increasing.
Its like they demand ‘we’ stop mining and burning coal. China produces and uses more coal than the rest of the world put together. But none of them ever demand that China stops using and mining coal. No, its critically important to save the planet that the UK close half a dozen coal fired electricity plants. The fact that China is installing this year more coal fired plant that the UK’s total of all kinds, and twice as much of it next year?
Never even mentioned.
You left out Canada.
However short a time US, UK , Australia say we have left before doomsday, Justin will predictably predict that our time is even shorter.
He’s just that kind of guy who cares so much about ‘peoplekind’.
Because models work on 5-year increments, we can’t derive statements with higher precision,” said Dr Joeri Rogelj, from Imperial College London, and an IPCC lead author.
Models only “work” in the sense that they produce the GangGreen agit-prop they have been designed for.
As for “precision”, (or accuracy, for that matter), the models and the charlatans who construct them are just an extremely bad joke.
ZOMG!!!
It is not just DOOM!, it is DoomyDOOM!.
Worse than we thought barely even covers it. It is worse than you imagine. It is worse than you can even imagine, then it is even worse than that.
It is a Catastrophic Disaster, it is a Disastrous Catastrophe. That’s how bad it is.
Slight warming will mean lengthened crop growing seasons over huge areas of Canada, Europe, Siberia.
Horror!!!
A warmer world is a more humid world. Arid areas become less arid, promoting crop growth, reducing the need for irrigation.
More Horror!!!!
Carbon dioxide fertilization continues to promote more plant growth worldwide, to the benefit of the whole food chain.
More Horrible!!!
And nobody listens.
I cannot go on, it is just too horrible.
And it is all your fault.
Everything is mega these days so it would be megadoom
Nonsense. Recent global temperatures observed show no such danger. Since winter earth has warmed by 1°C and set to warm another 4°C till July before cooling back to winter.
+50°C in summer was hard to spot (where very little population exist) -50°C was better observed(excluding Antarctic) and effected more people. Ice lost in Arctic is replaced around Antarctic. Coldest temperature observed -64.3°C(Antarctic). Hottest 35.4°C(Middle East).
All this doom and more doom puts me in mind of Greta. What has happened to the juvenile doom monger in chief? She has not been in the headlines for quite a while. Has something happened that is being kept quiet? She hasn’t discovered oil is not the problem her minders have been telling her it is, by any chance?
As for 2025 being the peak emissions year, well maybe they have factored in the Democrat policy of destroying capitalism. Thus no one will be able to buy anything if present policies are maintained. China’s ongoing CO2 positivity thanks to supplying the west, will come to a crashing stop by the end of the current Biden administration.
Old Joe is doing all the wrong things but not necessarily in the right order…..
She’s writing a new book (well, she’s organising the compilation of a book anyway) whilst trying to avoid actors on bicycles.
“ A Nasa scientist who went viral over his tearful protest on the climate crisis has told The Independent that his activism comes from a sense of desperation to “find something that actually has an impact and moves the needle”.
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/protest-nasa-scientist-rebellion-b2059042.html
Mental health seems to be their real problem
He seems to be mentally disturbed to the point of not being able to function rationally. That’s probably the reason he can’t even properly adjust the collar on his lab coat.
and has a taxpayer funded job at nasa
Lab coats are personal protective equipment (PPE). Yet he is wearing an ill-fitting one in public, outside of the laboratory. He is warning about global safety when he doesn’t even know the first thing about personal and workplace safety. I suspect he hasn’t worked in a lab or medical facility since undergraduate classes.
Somehow, for PR purposes, alleged climate scientists have decided that lab coats make them look sciency and credible rather than the fools that they are. No knowledgeable scientist or medical doctor should EVER appear in public wearing a lab coat.
Why would climate model fiddlers need to wear lab coats while they tinkle with their keyboards and stare at their flat screen monitors?
Quit banjoking around.
In my view, any so-called “scientists” wearing lab coats with the Extinction Rebellion logo on the coat should be viewed suspiciously by serious scientists. When those scientists put on a fake crying act while chained to the door of a building to protest climate change, the scientific community needs to consider whether these individuals have abandoned science completely.
Kalmus is not stupid based on his CV, but he’s obviously indoctrinated and perhaps suffers from nutritional deficiencies that contribute to a poor mental health.
He has given up flying, so he says, though he also says he emits less than 2 tonnes of CO2 annually, which I view skeptically.
https://peterkalmus.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/cv_peter_kalmus_full.pdf
He’s not stupid, he’s immature.
What a phrase, a key U.N. ‘finding.’ That’s when a self-interested so-called climate scientist finds his ass when searching for a hole in the ground. Of course, it only becomes a TRUE key U.N. finding when it’s pronounced that we’re all gonna die because of it. It would be sort of funny if it weren’t so friggin’ sad, and our tax dollars continued to be burned up by such a waste of human capital.
End the U.N. STOP FUNDING IT! Kick the idiot bureaucrats out of the USA and demolish that stupid HQ bldg. We can temporarily subsidize the working girls of NYC as compensation for their loss of income. THINK OF THE SAVINGS!
This is great news! The modeled world will end within 3 years!
With all this terrible doom mongering, I don’t understand why these people have not adopted David Bowie’s brilliant song “Five Years”. In great detail and with rising emotion he portrays the state of the world with just five years before inevitable doom.
It should be played every time Greta and friends are on the radio or TV – far more emotionally affecting than any of their doom laden words…
Just ask these clowns two simple questions: what is the correct CO2 concentration in ppm? And why?
There is not a single scientist of any kind who can answer the first question, let alone the second. But climate pundits claim they know, because they must if they know that concentration is too high already. So challenge them to tell us. And show them to be ignorant.
Glenn Peters is whining that an impossible goal, peaking emissions in 2025 is giving people hope?
What is wrong with him? He is supposed to be a scientist and yet can’t see the futility in trying to cut emissions in the “West” when the “developing” world, including China, are accelerating their fossil fuel power plant build out, with decades of plants in the works.
If he was a sensible environmentalist that actually believed in The Climate Emergency then he knows his is wasting time with emission reductions, and needs to go right to ocean fertilization.
The doomsayers will us, the climate will not.
Glen Peters and friends must show us their deep concern is real by ceasing forthwith
• to use gas powered automobiles and electric cars charged with fossil fuel electricity,
• to apply the same standards to all public transport,
• to cease flying and using ships for transport,
• to use no means of heating and cooking with a link to fossil fuels,
• to cease all farming and manufacturing dependent on fossil fuels,
• to reject cement, wind turbines and solar panels that need fossil fuels for their production
• to stop processing data with computers and abandon all electronic devices
and much more
in a word go back to the stone age.
Thiese IPCC types just don’t care about economics, which is what we care about.
More to the point, the IPCC types don’t care if anyone cares about economics. This may change if Marine Le Pen is elected in France and the flying political fallout hits their windmills.
None of this matters, since we all died in the ice age predicted a few decades ago,
From the above article: “IPCC Lead Author Glen Peters and friends are dismayed some people have misinterpreted a call for immediate emissions reductions to mean that we still have a few years to act.”
Well, author Glen Peters and friends have it all wrong: many people have just ignored a call of immediate emissions reductions, recognizing it for what it is—pure politics!
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” –H.L. Mencken
The Inquisition, you never expect it
The Spanish Inquisition as interpreted by Mel Brooks
Apparently “Colonialism” also causes climate change.
https://atmos.earth/ipcc-report-colonialism-climate-change
I mean, really?
Have we yet, finally, reached peak stupid?
Fearmongering is MONGIER than I feared!
Well the good news is that it will only take a few years to see how completely full of bull faeces they are. They’ll have to spend the few remaining years coming up with some other unrelated Armageddon fantasy if they want us all to forget how ridiculous this one is.
Just in time to support the Biden Administrations green policies. The use of could indicates not so urgent.
These people are pathetic, crying alligator tears because average global temperature might rise 1.5 Celsius above preindustrial times. What a crock. First it was 2 Celsius above preindustrial times. People weren’t getting alarmed enough so they simply moved the goal posts. They are disgusting.
What I don’t understand is that with all the fossil fuels being burnt since Roman times and earlier, massive increases in populations, industrialisation, exponential aircraft travel, motor vehicle use…..
why does CO2 increase by only 1 or 2 parts per million in the atmosphere annually?
I mean the reality is 999,998 parts per million in the atmosphere don’t change.
Even more bewildering is if you consider the COVID pandemic where there was a massive reduction in fossil fuel used there was no change in the CO2 atmosphere patterns
So we’ve gone from, ‘It’s worse than we thought,’ to ‘It’s doomier than we thought.’
Remarkable! Transformational!! Who said that climate science hadn’t advanced and that climate scientists were not creative?!
“emissions need to fall immediately“.
China.
Well this confirms it’s all a fairy tale. Windows of time in any large endeavor are measured in multi decades, not 3 yrs. The Panama Canal is a tree fort project compared to achieving Net Zero. At least for the canal, the technology was proven and ready to ship to the work site. For Net Zero, they did not even know (although sceptics did) 5 yrs ago that their ‘renewable’ tech wasnt going to work and they have only begun investigating batteries as a “patch” for over the past few years.
To their surprise (engineers are not surprised that patching a failed tech is a no-no) this turned out to raise concerns that batteries may have limits on scaling up (grid scale ones can fail spectacularly (2 out of two in S Australia) and a tripling of anticipated number of windmills is needed to meet the enormous demands of the patch for Net Zero! Moreover, a limit to the percentage of wind units in a grid seems to be emerging in California.
Re the haulage truck tech, the jury is still out on the tech to switch over to (H², batteries, or bio-diesel). Finally, anyone have a guess on the record tonnage that the global lithium output reached in 2021?
Well it was 100,000MT.
How long before a lockdown ala Covid is demanded to stop global warming? At sundown, all restaurants, pubs and entertainment must close, and people (except for essential services) must be in their homes by 9pm with only 2 lights permitted. No holiday travel by air or car permitted. After all, it’s an emergency right?
As the planet continues to cool as it has been, will we all get additional carbon allotments to offset the cooling? These idiots should be worried about crop losses due to a cooling climate. Oh wait they already worried about the coming ice age some 50 years ago…… nevermind.
Because models work on 5-year increments, we can’t derive statements with higher precision,” said Dr Joeri Rogelj,”
Joeri Rogelj holds a PhD in climate science from ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and an MSc in Engineering and a postgraduate degree in Cultures and Development Studies,
“experts”,”researchers”,”the worlds leading scientists”
The reality, some fucking engineer, who can’t even make up his mind what subject he wants to study.
Good Lord. How can anybody from the Imperial College London show their face in public after those ridiculous COVID-19 projections back in 2020 ?
Back in the day (2007) this blog gave a clear perspective of the alarmism.