By Joseph Somsel
The Philippines is a tropical country of 113 million, with beautiful beaches, dense rainforests, 11,000 islands, and a smiling, industrious, educated population. English is an official language, unifying its multitude of native languages and dialects, allowing its “overseas foreign workers” to return billions in remittances and savings annually to the country’s economy. What it doesn’t have is ample indigenous energy resources; high electricity prices have hurt it competitively against its Southeast Asian neighbors.
What they also have is a roaring democracy – the Filipinos put the “party” back into “political parties.” With elections coming up on May 9th, high electricity prices and unreliable service have become a campaign issue. The outgoing Dutarte Administration has been criticized by major presidential candidates for not doing enough about these high prices (presidents serve but a single 6 year term.). While President Dutarte is most famous internationally for his “extra-judicial treatment” of shabu (methamphetamine) dealers to restore civil order and for his delicate geopolitical balancing act between China and America, his administration has been active behind the scenes preparing for an eventual adaptation of nuclear power into the generation mix. This has included a detailed cost study by the Koreans of restoring and bringing into service the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP), placed in caretaker mode in 1986 having never gone critical. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) also was invited to lay out a governmental action plan that has already been partially enacted. The government has further tentatively identified 10 sites for possible new reactors. The capstone was when Dutarte formally issued Executive Order No. 164 in late February that flatly stated “The National Government commits to the introduction of nuclear power technology into the State’s energy mix for power generation.”
There are two major causes of the long-term rise in electricity prices. One is the rapid depletion of the country’s major offshore natural gas field, currently fueling 20% of generation. Further investment in expanded exploration and development in the South China Sea is hampered by the aggressive attitude of the Communist Chinese toward resources ownership in the area, be it fisheries, coral reefs, or oil/gas. The second was the signing by the prior administration of Benigno “Noynoy” Acquino of the Paris Accords in April 2016. He pledged that the Philippines would forego permitting of new coal plants not already in the regulatory pipeline. In exchange, the Philippines was promised developmental financing of alternatives; the moneys have not been forthcoming to date. Coal currently provides almost 60% of the kWh sold and is mostly fueled by Indonesian bituminous at a fuel cost of about $3 USD per million BTU.
The Dutarte’s Department of Energy’s future energy plan, released in January 2022, expected that path forward (sans nuclear) would be a huge shift to imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) and a massive expansion in photovoltaics (PV). Spot market LNG deliveries in Tokyo Bay have been running at $8 USD a million BTUs (long-term contracts might be a bit lower) before the Ukrainian War caused massive disruptions in demand and prices. Some expansion in hydropower was forecast but recent calls for more projects failed to get expected bidders even at attractive “feed-in-tariffs.”
How will the candidates seeking to succeed Dutarte hope to lower electricity prices when the present options under the Paris Accords are replacing $3 coal and $2 natural gas with $8+ LNG and Chinese-made PV? An aggressive nuclear power program might not immediately reduce current bills but will at least provide some stability of price and supply while still reducing CO2 emissions. The Germans and the Filipinos might today be sharing the same regrets about their prior decisions to shutter nuclear.
Joseph Somsel is a nuclear engineer (with an MBA) and long-time public analyst of energy policy. Further elaboration of the Philippines energy situation can be found in the April 2022 issue of Nuclear Engineering International Magazine.
It is encouraging that the eyes of the world are, at long last, being opened to nuclear–the only reasonable energy source for nations that worry about carbon dioxide. I hope the nations of the world will also recognize soon that the worry about “carbon” is entirely misplaced.
In 2009 The EU planned to phase out Nuke Power within two decades. The phase out actually happened faster in Germany. The issues were not just green. Security and cost were valid concerns. The other issue was the specter of cheap LNG from USA and Brazil using in two and tree tier turbine generation systems. What happened? Putin happened and the climate change propaganda blitz that has been upon us since 2014. Since then, Brazil’s NG industry has been shut down under a matrix of regulation as Brazil aligned itself with Putin. Additionally, the USA LNG export business was slowed under a similar politicization of hydrocarbon energy commerce. Europe needs LNG ports in the Black sea asap. Nukes power can return later.
Nuclear was never expensive – it’s cheaper than coal, and even when natural gas is reasonably priced (not now), it’s still no more expensive than gas. It’s much more reliable and stable than any other source of electrical energy, with the highest up time of any thermal power plant type. Security is not an issue, and neither is nuclear waste disposal, despite all the political yammering by the antis.
The issue in Europe (outside France) with nukes is just liberal NIMBYism.
Where are they going to get the money? The last (ruler) moron’s old lady spent it all on shoes.
That was in the 80s
Get it like everyone else,borrow it
nuclear power is the only future for power for humanity and for Earth. The green climate scammers resistance to nuclear power will ultimately fail in the face of reality.
Climate is not the enemy of the planet. Socialism is.
Geothermal is the ONLY future power for humanity and for the earth. Virtually infinite and pollution free.
Pesky development and ruinous maintenance costs to the contrary notwithstanding?
Nope – geothermal is not practically or economically feasible and available in but a few places on earth that are extremely active volcanically – which also happens to be where few people live.
Nuclear is available anywhere and everywhere. Uranium and especially thorium are among the most abundant and easily extracted minerals in the earth’s crust. The technology is extremely mature now, and both safe and inexpensive and totally reliable.
Survey assessments show some future resources for geothermal development in the Philippines but not as much as one might think. They do pretty well already but geothermal wells deplete rapidly in most cases and generally stink of rotten eggs.
Geothermal remains a limited option.
What institution were you indoctrinated at? Geothermal is at best a local phenomena with serious metal fatigue issues and negative cost benefits. Reminds me of the Hydrogen Fantasy. All talk and no walk.
Yes, the Filipino’s probably have more democracy in their 7,107 islands and 42,046 Barangays (municipalities) than the rest of the world combined. But it is a very messy democracy, and corrupt to the core. Having lived there and witnessed elections first hand gives one insight on how corruption works at every level. From getting a local electrical/building permit to extending your visa, money helps everything, including purchasing votes or fixing the vote tabulation, or having your opponent disappear. As long as you don’t get involved in the local politics, which is illegal, you are usually left alone.
While the Philippines is very seismically active, if they don’t make the same mistake that Japan did with building their Fukushima nuclear plant at near sea level, can probably be designed to be earthquake proof. But I doubt it will ever happen for several reasons, as the Philippines has also turned into an eco justice style environmental region. And there is an active campaign of climate misinformation going on there now, more so than ever with local and foreign NGO’s, and Dutarte only came around recently to nuclear. I doubt there would be public support, just because of their democracy and everyone having an opinion. Nor could they raise the capital on their own, and a lot of the Chinese development loans never materialized for their promised infrastructure build out that Dutarte was promised from China. And probably won’t if the Philippines pivots back to America and marginalizes China which hopefully will be the case. Although looks like Bongbong Marcos Jr. will probably get elected with ‘assistance’ from China and Smartmatic/Dominion voting software/machines. He could build a few nuclear plants with the gold and cash the Marcos family plundered.
It would be decades before anything ever actually got built, and would cost twice as much just to pay off the graft. Although I agree it is a good start to begin the long term narrative to the positive about nuclear, so as when Gen 4 modular nuclear is more advanced, can be readily plugged into the grid, and on several of the main islands with their undersea cables supplying the smaller islands, as they do now. Perhaps floating modular Gen 4 reactors, just as they have now with floating diesel back up barges to supplement the grid, or after a natural disaster.
A better short term solution is to ensure they have access to their West Philippine Sea EEZ resources which contain a lot of natural gas, which could be basically tapped into immediately, if not for Red China and their 9 Dash Line. This is the next global hotspot that needs addressing, and if not for Obama abandoning Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal to the Chinese in that 2012 stand-off, and allowing their 7 island military dredging expedition when Obama claimed he was pivoting to Asia, we wouldn’t be in this mess in the South China Sea we are in. But clearly, the Philippines has full rights to develop their EEZ and resources as they wish. That is what we should be fully assisting the Philippines with, in exchange for bringing back our full scale military bases to the Philippines. This is the only real hope for the survival of any type of democracy in SE Asia, given the Chinese juggernaut.
O bummer really screwed the pooch on the S China sea.
Really? How? What did he do or not do, and how exactly is the South China Sea anything other than a disputed area, having been disputed for thousands of years.
Thanks for your nitty gritty report of what’s really going on there & in the
region- relevant stuff us outsiders know nothing about.
Earthling2, good to hear some “hands-on” information. The seismically-active aspect of the Philippines, they’re on the Ring of Fire, means that they not only need to site nuclear reactors above sea level, they need electricity failure adaption, one of which is about half of the fuel rods descending into underground tubes when the power fails. Sensible adaption to local environments should be the lead-in to all nuclear siting studies, after that, press on!
It’s not hard at all to deal with seismic issues and nuke plants. What Japan – possibly the world’s most seismically active areas on the planet – did was fail to provide proper analysis and protection from tsunamis for the Fukushima complex. The actual earthquake didn’t damage the plant – it was the flooding of the plant from the tsunami. If they had simply built it on higher ground or further inland, or provided some specific flood proofing of the plant, it never would have had a problem.
All they had to do was put the back up diesel gensets up on the hill instead of down by the water
Then “Fukushima” would never have occurred
I have also lived in Philippines, and still visit. I have a house in Luzon.
The two earthquakes I experienced while living there were both undersea just of the Bataan peninsula. So I have no idea why they want to put a nuclear power plant there.
My general thoughts on nuclear power is that developed countries should develop significant nuclear power to reduce the demand for fossil fuels, thus making them cheaper for developing nations.
My principal residence was in the Province of Bohol. They had an earthquake there in 2013. Some of my Filipino friends down the road a 1/4 mile lived near the ocean front and are fisherman. On the day of the earthquake, they were out gathering up their boats and fishing in hip deep water about 500 feet off shore, and within a minute, the entire ocean floor uplifted about 5-6 feet and they were sitting high and dry on the coral ocean floor. They were so stunned, they didn’t even think about the tsunami risk, which luckily, that 7.2 magnitude quake didn’t cause much of a wave. But it sure decimated the island, and now they just got hammered with Typhoon Odette last November. No electricity for over 2 months, couldn’t even wire any money for several weeks as no cell phone coverage. If not for bad luck, sometimes I think the Philippines wouldn’t have any luck at all.
That’s a pretty cynical view of Filipino politics and culture!
A messy democracy for sure, and officials just have more opportunity for corruption than most, but it works for them.
As to Marcos, I’ve been asking expat Filipinos and provincials, and 9 out of 10 want Marcos. I don’t have a legitimate opinion nor a vote so its their choice.
I’ve written elsewhere about the balancing act required of the country: https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2019/09/the_philippines__the_poland_of_the_pacific_comments.html
Excellent essay Joseph, (American Thinker) and essentially correct in my opinion. The Philippines has a choice to make now, and might determine the fate of South East Asia and the western Pacific in general. At least in either containing China going forward, or China hegemony in the region.
After seeing the ‘riding in tandem’ motorcycle murder of a friends wife, who was a local lawyer, just for taking on a client that was in opposition to the Gov’t on a local land deal, makes one cynical. As you know, most of the corruption is at the Barangay level, or every town also having a major, vice mayor and a legion of councillors. This why I say it probably has the most democracy on the good Earth. And that can me more of Cock Fight. Politics (locally) is a blood sport in the PH.
I don’t understand the Filipino’s wish to have the Marcos family back in control of the Philippines. Would Bongbong be more aligned with China than the West? He doesn’t need the money, so maybe he might be more pragmatic and return to his western roots and education and see the threat to all of SE Asia by a bellicose China. However, he is also part ethnic Han and maybe sees China as the ascending power, and one that won’t try and cancel him as long as he does their bidding. The Philippines is between a rock and a hard place.
That was their demise when Marcos Sr. ran the country into the ground and debt, and then absconded with all the loot. Philippines used to Pearl in the Orient prior to the Marcos plunder, and used to be an economic leader in SE Asia just behind Japan in the 1960’s and early 1970’s.
With having Dutarte’s daughter (Sarah) running as Vice President with Marcos Jr. it seems they will have a lock on the election, maybe fair and square. Which will protect Rody from prosecution by the ICC. Sometimes I don’t understand the Filipino mind, although a majority of the population now were not alive to live through the Marcos destruction of the Philippines. Maybe Jr. will want to redeem the troubles his father brought upon the Philippines. Maybe Stockholm syndrome. I hope it works out for the good people of the Philippines, including future safe affordable nuclear energy. They have some of the highest electricity prices in SE Asia.
My sense is that what the Filipinos want and need most of all is a strong government, answerable to the broader population – “law and order” is the first business of government. Dutarte is beloved by so many because he suppressed the Chinese-supplied drug trade. In the 6 years I’ve been visiting, I’ve seen a huge change in the sense of safety and security amongst the population, all to the better.
Marcos Sr. is still beloved by many for creating what they remember as Golden Age for the country. Liberals and Leftists despised him, as they despise Dutarte, for his heavy-handed-ness and opposition to the Leftist project. Remember there is still a low intensity shooting war between the government and the Communist-inspired New People’s Army as well as with the Islamists.
Like Mark Twain once said, “If you don’t read the papers, you are uninformed. If you do read the papers, you are misinformed.” The view on the ground here is a lot different from what one gets from US and international media.
Dutarte cleaned up some of the corruption as best he could. You have undoubtedly heard about going through customs prior to his election, and the customs officer would find a ‘bullet’ in your luggage, and for a mere 5,000 peso, it could disappear. That sort of stuff doesn’t happen anymore. And other elements of the petty crime networks were also severely curbed, especially around tourist hotspots, such as Bohol. As long as you stayed out of the Southern Islands, or parts of Mindanao, I generally felt fairly safe.
Although Abu Sayyaf (ISIL) Islamist militants tried to raid Bohol in 2017 looking to capture tourist hostages for ransom, about 7 miles from where I was staying, but most were quickly dispatched as they had been tracked leaving in 3 pump boats from Sulu. Several of the terrorists evaded capture for several weeks and were dispatched or arrested just a mile from where I was where they held a couple hostage in their house. Two Canadians and a German had just been beheaded further south in the island chain several months earlier which was international news. Nasty bunch of people.
So that was a little unnerving, although fairly rare recently. And then in 2021, the NPA had a shootout near the Chocolate Hills (interesting geological formations) with the army, and were also dispatched fairly quickly. I associated with a lot of expats from all over the world, so learned a lot.
Probably much safer than Chicago New York or LA. Good luck in your endeavours in the Philippines, and hope to hear of nuclear ambitions in the PH. If they want low carbon energy, then nuclear is the solution.
Just bought my Filipina wife a large lot near Alona Beach in Panglao for our retirement home.
Lots of cultural adjustments, like she packed my warm flannel shirts for the trip and I’m still shy of eating with my hands in public, but I’ll be happy here in retirement.
My uncle was a missionary on Negros for 30 years. My aunt is a very classy lady.
Being earthquake-proof seems a rather important requirement for any significant structure in The Philippines.
The Bataan Nuclear Plant is right on the coast on a peninsula, and sits about 90 feet above sea level.
“…and Smartmatic/Dominion voting software/machines.”
Just a minor query. Can anyone think of anything with “smart” in its title which is anything but terminally thick?
Well, corruption is pretty much the ruling thing in most of the world today but for a few western democracies that frown upon it for cultural reasons. All of Latin America, all of the Caribbean, most of Asia, all of Africa, and of course the corrupt Russian kleptocracy and their cohorts in Belorussia, etc.. Nuclear is no more susceptible to the effects of corruption than anything else – from power plants to roads to water systems to hospitals etc.
Corruption is not an argument against nuclear in the Philippines. Besides, the Filipinos can’t supply their own nuke plants anyway – the hardware, software, and IP involved would have to come from foreign contractors well experienced in delivery and operation of nuclear plant systems – that would include France, the UK, the US, and a few others.
Well good luck with that… Korean nuclear designs are likely to be quicker to build than woeful EDF stuff, but if you get anything within a decade you’ll be lucky. And it will in the end cost more than any possible alternative, renewable or fossil fuel.
Sounding a little salty there Grifter, nuclear is the only option, can’t wait for the great dismantling of un-reliables.
You sound a tad miffed, griff.
You can immerse yourself in the world you would have everybody live in, here…
Quite interesting- nice music, “all way” traffic from people walking in
the streets to horse-drawn double deckers to motorized ones…
many people looking at the camera… vendors… street sweepers…
very few “road apples”… Big Ben… Trafalgar Square. Neat!!!
Renewables are never an alternative for reliable, on demand nuclear.. or coal or gas.
Griff
I remain curious as to why you are antinuclear.
The only logical reason I can think of is that your concern about CO2 is a complete pretense and that the climate agenda is not really about CO2 at all, and never has been.
Your logic serves you well. It is a complete pretence.
I’m quite confident that reasonably minded people, who take the time to understand all that is required when producing true grid scale electricity, will take the path of nuclear versus wind/solar on all days that end in “y”.
Luck will play no role at all, unless Vegas is involved.
Kindly allow me to generalize. As there is absolutely no evidence that CO2 emissions have any detrimental effect upon the environment, people who really understand all that is required to produce true grid scale electricity will use fossil fuels and nuclear, when economic, versus wind/solar on all days regardless of spelling.
“What they also have is a roaring democracy “
I would imagine it’s also a lot cheaper than American democracy and – despite the corruption – every bit as fair as the British feudal model.
Democracy here reminds me of descriptions of American democracy in the early 19th century. Candidates are expected to host big parties for voters, paying for lots of lechon and San Miguel beer with live music and rousing speeches.
One hears marching bands and blaring sound trucks touting their candidates everyday. The public spaces are covered with posters showing the smiling faces of the aspirants. All great sport and entertainment – much like cock fights!
Half of all Filipino overseas workers work in Middle East.
The countries income is indirectly linked to the sale of fossil fuels.
Hello, George the horse, here.
I just want to thank fossil fuels for removing much of the burden on my species.
The whales are thankful, too.
Mmmmmm – Ring Of Fire eh?
(Better start making plans for the kids – that there Phlipolinos is gonna be The Last Habitable Place on this entire Earth before, at present rate, too long)
“ lovely fresh high fertile soil “
Loam alert…
The P.I.’s needs to lose their religion. These devout Catholics numbered ~36M in1970 and exported rice to Vietnam. They are now up to 110M and the rice train is reversed. Their main export is now $300/m maltreated indentured servants to the mideast and similar environs.
Is that a lament for islam?
“Is that a lament for islam?”
Just the opposite. Rather, advocacy for women’s rights for the reproductive freedoms denied by the catholic church.
Our cradle catholic families were both large and blue collar. 5 siblings for me, 7 for the missus. No family $ for college, obviously. If it wasn’t for GI bill and academic scholarships, no STEM “School of Mines” degrees for us. We finally snapped out of it after steering our 2 kids through enforced confirmation. Now, their small families are thriving.
Similar in the P.I.’s, but with a fraction of our advantages…
Re. trade flows, wasn’t there some sort of conflict in Vietnam about that time?
“Re. trade flows, wasn’t there some sort of conflict in Vietnam about that time?”
Making my point. The P.I.’s were nurtured by us in the ’60’s and ’70’s. Most of their heavy industry and workforce training came from us. OTOH, Vietnam has never been. The biggest difference – the P.I.s have tripled their head count in the interim. Vietnam population is a little more than doubled.
Vietnam therefore has half the fraction of overseas workers, And they not only earn much more than their Filipino counterparts, but they are less likely to be cheated and maltreated. Also, since household size in the P.I.’s average 4.8, and those in Vietnam average 3.6, those larger remittances go even farther, by a factor of 3.8/2.6.
The “nurturing” goes back to the Spanish-American War in 1898 when America took over from the Spanish. We developed their political leadership and helped create the institutions that flourish today. We turned over the keys in 1946 making them fully independent. American-built infrastructure from the American Commonwealth era still serves the country.
BTW, if America hadn’t taken control in the Spanish-American War, the Philippines would have been scooped up by the Kaiser – Dewey exchanged gunfire with the German fleet after he sank the Spanish fleet in Manila Bay.
The number of OFWs are more of a function of the English-speaking portion of the population compared to Vietnam. Every poor girl from the province who speaks English can go to another country and get a relatively great paying job and return home to buy her family upgraded housing and maybe a coconut grove or a rice paddy. The global merchant marine is half crewed by Filipino too.
Good history lesson. Right up to the last, wishful, para. Very few of those expat workers are paid as well as the sea farers you’ve been watching on youtube. And the current exploitation of the vast majority of them reflects nothing more than this religiously sourced trend.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/PHL/philippines/population-growth-rate
I’ve consulted extensively for ARAMCO, post middle east conflict area rotating work, pre-retirement. I still remember the Filipino house boy in Dhahran who bragged to me about how he was in the running to escape his $300/mo. indenture and catch on as a rig floor hand. He might be able to make $29/DAY!!
Darn good money either way. My Filipina wife is paying her brother-in-law 500 PhP a day ($10) to clear her lot and worries that’s too much. We supplied the bolos and snacks.
You deny the law of supply and demand as well as denying the Filipinos agency.
That said, I’ve worked with and for Filipinos in my decades in the nuclear business who commanded my rates or more.
Brava Filapenos!
From the article: “In exchange, the Philippines was promised developmental financing of alternatives; the moneys have not been forthcoming to date.”
That’s about right. Empty bureaucratic promises.
Volcano’s, Earthquakes Typhons and Tsunami’s…might work but I would not want to live anywhere near Nuke plants in the Philippines Apart from the major metropolitan areas, nuke power will not be a solution without millions of miles of under water electric transmission cables. Philippines are building and LNG port and should be able to distribute CNG to the smaller islands. The Philippines has proven natural gas reserves equivalent to 31.4 times its annual consumption. Finally, NG infrastructure and conversion to CNG cars will help the Philippines. The conversion to CNG vehicles appears to already be underway.
Despite all the yammering about ideology and parties and personalities in politics, most elections come down to pocket book issues. Governments that deliver, or at least preside over economic prosperity tend to get reelected and those that don’t, don’t. Regardless of who or what is actually at fault.
It’s a tough sell for a party or candidate to say, “Hey, we know it hurts right now, but that’s as good as it gets”.
Nuclear is actually, contrary to what a lot of people say and believe, quite cost effective as a source of dependable electric power. And it’s stable in both supply and price, with none of the wild swings of hydrocarbons or inability to provide a stable baseload of power as with the case of PV and wind power.
Kudos to the Philippines 🇵🇭 for seeing sense about energy policy.
Making nuclear power safe, reliable and affordable is much, much less of a technological wild goose chase to nowhere than grid battery storage, or fusion.
The antinuclear holdouts are a shrinking minority of Germanic and Anglosaxon nations. Why this is:
https://ptolemy2.wordpress.com/2022/04/09/why-is-germany-anti-nuclear/