The Week That Was: 2022-03-12 (March 12, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Learning never exhausts the mind.” – Leonardo da Vinci
Number of the Week: Down 10.8% From 13,000,000 BPD to 11,600,000 BPD
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: TWTW will begin by discussing a paper by W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer and a video by van Wijngaarden explaining why, based on physical evidence from the atmosphere, the world has nothing to fear from developing countries in Asia greatly increasing the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, particularly carbon dioxide the gas essential for green plant life on this planet.
TWTW will explain why it is so impressed by the work of van Wijngaarden and Happer as an outstanding example of using proper science to address a complex scientific problem, even though their work has not been published by a leading western scientific journal. As exemplified by Science Magazine since the mid-1990s, published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), western journals are more interested in political conformity than they are in competent advances in physical science. Van Wijngaarden and Happer are highly regarded experts in Atomic, Molecular, and Optical (AMO) physics which includes the study of how certain molecules absorb and emit electromagnetic radiation. Greenhouse gases transmit visible sunlight but absorb various infrared colors. Their work calculates transmission of infrared radiation through the atmosphere to outer space.
TWTW will then present the first two of eight essays by AMO physicist Howard Hayden and will discuss others in later TWTWs. While van Wijngaarden and Happer discuss details of the IR spectra, Hayden looks at the overall results. The 1860s pioneer of spectroscopy, John Tyndall, named the atmospheric gases that prevent land masses from entering a deep freeze at night as greenhouse gases. They are essential for life on land.
TWTW will conclude by discussing how foolish the Biden administration must appear to major oil producers as it tries to replace the importation of oil and petroleum products from Russia. At current prices, oil producers in North America are very capable of expanding production to replace Russian oil, but the administration appears to be so blinded by its false beliefs that it is incapable of recognizing this important industry.
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Greatly Exaggerated Effects: In their paper, “Relative Potency of Greenhouse Molecules,” van Wijngaarden and W. Happer cut through a lot of nonsense by climate scientists who do not understand the greenhouse effect and how various concentrations of greenhouse gases change the effectiveness of other greenhouse gases. The abstract reads:
The forcings due to changing concentrations of Earth’s five most important, naturally occurring greenhouse gases, H2O, CO2, O3, N2O and CH4 as well as CF4 and SF6 were evaluated for the case of a cloud-free atmosphere. The calculation used over 1.5 million lines having strengths as low as 10−27 cm. For a hypothetical, optically thin atmosphere, where there is negligible saturation of the absorption bands, or interference of one type of greenhouse gas with others, the per-molecule forcings are of order 10−22 W for H2O, CO2, O3, N2O and CH4 and of order 10−21 W for CF4 and SF6. For current atmospheric concentrations, the per-molecule forcings of the abundant greenhouse gases H2O and CO2 are suppressed by four orders of magnitude. The forcings of the less abundant greenhouse gases, O3, N2O and CH4, are also suppressed, but much less so. For CF4 and SF6, the suppression is less than an order of magnitude because the concentrations of these gases is very low. For current concentrations, the per-molecule forcings are two to four orders of magnitude greater for O3, N2O, CH4, CF4 and SF6 than those of H2O or CO2. Doubling the current concentrations of CO2, N2O or CH4 increases the forcings by a few per cent. A concentration increase of either CF4 or SF6 by a factor of 100 yields a forcing nearly an order of magnitude smaller than that obtained by doubling CO2. Important insight was obtained using a harmonic oscillator model to estimate the power radiated per molecule. Unlike the most intense bands of the 5 naturally occurring greenhouse gases, the frequency-integrated cross sections of CF4 and SF6 were found to noticeably depend on temperature. [Boldface added]
In his November 25, 2020, talk to the Irish Climate Science Foundation, van Wijngaarden discusses his work with William Happer, explaining in a different way why there is no climate crisis and that adding CO2 and methane (CH4) to the atmosphere will not cause one. In that talk van Wijngaarden explains that concentrations of greenhouse gases vary with altitude. Only the concentration of CO2 is constant with altitude. The EPA declaring that the influence of methane on temperatures is X times that of CO2 is absurd. The EPA does not understand the greenhouse effect of different gases.
In the Troposphere, (from the surface to about 5 to 9 miles [8 to 14.5 km]), as altitude increases, the temperature declines at the rate of 6.5 C/km. This is called the lapse rate. Above that, in the stratosphere, the concentration of Ozone (O3) increases, causing slight temperature rises with increasing altitude in the stratosphere. From the top of the stratosphere (about 86 km) to the top of the atmosphere is the Mesosphere, where the temperature goes down slightly.
In discussing methane as described by HITRAN Line Intensities, van Wijngaarden brings up the fact N2O and, primarily, water vapor, interfere with the effectiveness of methane as a greenhouse gas. They must be considered together to get an accurate understanding of their effectiveness.
About 14 minutes into the video, van Wijngaarden discusses how they use the results of weather balloons to double check their work. The balloons can contain spectrometers that can measure infrared intensities at high altitudes. CO2 absorbs in frequencies from about 500 to 750 wavelengths per centimeter. At lower frequencies there is a disagreement between the observations and the calculations. This is an example of the necessity of good researchers always checking model results with experiment (observations, physical evidence).
Van Wijngaarden then explains that near the surface, where there is a great deal of water vapor, significant infrared energy in the water vapor frequencies is absorbed, but at slightly higher altitudes the energy escapes to space. By contrast, for the frequencies at which CO2 absorbs energy, that energy is quickly absorbed by CO2, and only escapes to space when emitted at high altitudes near 86km (50 mi.). At some frequencies, no energy is absorbed by greenhouse gases.
He then explains the difference between the Planck blackbody curve with a transparent atmosphere and the irregular Schwarzschild curve with greenhouse gases. These are discussed by Happer and are important to understanding the essays by Howard Hayden.
Correspondingly, cutting methane to zero or doubling it makes little difference in outgoing infrared radiation. Methane is not an important greenhouse gas, despite EPA’s erroneous calculations. Van Wijngaarden’s presentation will be discussed further in next week’s TWTW. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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A Significant Contribution: TWTW is impressed by the approach used by van Wijngaarden and Happer because they address the greenhouse effect as directly as possible and do not go through the convoluted process of understanding the earth’s internal climate which has been changing for hundreds of millions of years. They use the appropriate field of physics, AMO, to address the issue. In earlier papers they use the appropriate mathematics, which includes calculus. Developed independently by Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz, calculus gave Newton a dynamic form of mathematics that explained the motion of the planets and gravity. Static calculations were not sufficient.
Further, van Wijngaarden and Happer use the appropriate evidence, the HITRAN database, which is compiled from atmospheric observations, where the greenhouse effect occurs. Since greenhouse gas theory is not fully developed and the greenhouse effect varies with cloudiness, altitude, and latitude, the Schwarzschild curve can be developed only through observations, not theoretical calculations.
Also, van Wijngaarden and Happer test their model (calculations) against independent physical evidence, as explained, in part, by van Wijngaarden about 14 minutes into his presentation and in last week’s TWTW. Nothing the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers have done approaches the rigor in identifying the changing greenhouse effect that van Wijngaarden and Happer have accomplished. To top things off, forty-two years of comprehensive atmospheric temperature observations by satellites show that the atmosphere is warming slowly, not significantly, contradicting claims of alarming global warming by climate modelers. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Basic Climate Physics: Howard ‘Cork’ Hayden, professor of physics emeritus in the Physics Department of the University of Connecticut, is editor of The Energy Advocate, a monthly newsletter promoting energy and technology.
A Colorado native, Dr. Hayden attended the University of Denver where he earned his B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. in Physics.
On receiving his Ph.D., he went to the University of Connecticut where he spent 32 years teaching and doing research. He did accelerator-based atomic physics, including measurements of cross-sections for various processes, measurements of energy loss in atomic collisions and of lifetimes of excited states, beam-foil spectroscopy, and ion implantation. He also performed a Trouton-Noble experiment that was 105 times as sensitive as the original.
He is writing a series on Basic Climate Physics, meaning all-inclusive physics that pertains to the subject of climate. He uses the approach used by van Wijngaarden and Happer and the numbers established by the IPCC to establish an upper bound for calculations by climate modelers on temperature change from a doubling of carbon dioxide. Even though some may disagree with IPCC numbers, as Hayden does, there should be no disagreement with those numbers by climate modelers who follow IPCC procedures.
The first two essays are posted on the SEPP website under scientific papers and others will be posted in the near future. In the first essay Hayden establishes a Planetary Heat Balance which should apply to all non-gaseous planets and their satellites that orbit the sun. In the second essay, he introduces the greenhouse effect and how it can be easily calculated. Strangely, the greenhouse effect as a numerical quantity was not used by the IPCC until the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021), after thirty years of Assessment Reports. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Strange Times: The Biden Administration seems to be so obsessed with the false climate crisis, which it proclaimed without any physical evidence, that it ignores that solutions to the problem of cancelling US imports of energy from Russia already exist in North America. Drilling in proven oil fields of the North Slope of Alaska and the oil sands of Canada can easily replace Russian oil. Gas fields of Texas and the Mid-Atlantic states can easily replace any natural gas the US receives from Russia. All the administration needs to do is to permit the development and transportation of these fuels.
Apparently, such a reversal of the policies of the administration are too much to expect. Instead, the administration has sent envoys to the Mid-East and to Venezuela in an effort to replace Russian sources. This has led Jason Kenney, the premier of the Canadian province of Alberta to state: “It’s replacing dictator oil with more dictator oil.” The climate does not care where the oil originates, and the physical science does not indicate that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere will cause a problem. The problem only exists in the imaginary world of climate models and their believers. See links under Change in US Administrations.
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Number of the Week: Down 10.8% From 13,000,000 BPD to 11,600,000 BPD. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, before COVID US Field Production of Crude Oil stood at 13,000,000 BPD (barrels per day) from January to March 2020. On March 4, 2022, it was 11,600,000 BPD, a decline of 10.8%.
Imports of Crude Oil and Products from Russia peaked in May 2021 at 26,171,000 bbl. per month and fell to 12,569,000 bbl./month in December 2021, totaling 245,194,000 bbl. in 2021.
Imports from Canada peaked in December 2019 at 148,319,000 bbl./month, then fell to 112,554 in June 2020. In December 2021 it was close to its previous peak. Annual imports peaked at 1,617,636 in 2019 and fell to 1,584,269 in 2021. Annual Alaska Field Production of Crude Oil peaked in 1998 at 738,143,000 bbl. and has fallen almost every year since due to the lack of permits. It now stands at 159,623,000 bbl., down to 21.6% of its high. The oil is there, the leases are there, but the permits to drill are not. Washington is strangling the US oil industry. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W,
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_d_nus_NRS_mbbl_m.htm, and
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Sun is Responsible Again
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Mar 1, 2022
“The sight of forty falling satellites is merely the latest example of how the sun affects the atmosphere.”
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Relative Potency of Greenhouse Molecules
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Jan 14, 2021
Methane and Climate Change
By William van Wijngaarden. Irish Climate Science Foundation, Nov 25, 2020
Video
Basic Climate Physics #1 & #2
By Howard “Cork” Hayden, SEPP website, March 12, 2022
http://sepp.org/science_papers.cfm
Michael Kelly Exposes The Implications Of Net Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 7, 2022
Link to report: Achieving Net Zero: A report from a putative delivery agency
By Michael Kelly, GWPF, 2022
Reliability is Everything
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Mar 8, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The reporters of the Wall Street Journal and elsewhere fail to grasp the importance of reliability in electricity.]
There is no climate crisis
If there were, the IPCC wouldn’t be quietly turning the dial towards one
By Rupert Darwall, Spectator, Mar 7, 2022
“The sole value of the new report is that it shows just how deeply the IPCC has sunk into the anti-scientific business of advocacy and green ideology. With its declaration that net zero creates the opportunity for societal transformation, the IPCC’s 1.5-degree special report was bad. This new one is even worse.”
Two weeks of War undoes thirty years of energy propaganda: Everyone wants fossil fuels
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 7, 2022
WUWT Contest Winner, Professional, 2nd Place – ‘Is there really a climate crisis?’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 9, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy
Guest Editorial: Misinformation is blocking climate action, and the UN is finally calling it out
By Los Angeles Times Editorial Board, Via Corvallis Gazette Times, OR, Mar 9, 2022
“Perhaps we are getting closer to a turning point, where public realization that we’ve been misinformed by polluting industries begins to overcome decades of planet-endangering deceit and delay. Having the world’s scientists finally begin to call out the problem certainly can’t hurt.”
[SEPP Comment: What about “scientists” who misinform the public?]
How to spot greenwashing
A huge 93% of GH readers think brands should be more honest about their sustainability claims. Here’s how to separate eco-friendly fact from fiction…
By Emilie Martin, Good Housekeeping [UK], No date
[SEPP Comment: Three of the four characteristics of greenwashing apply to promoters of wind and solar power: 1) Vague language; 3) proper disposal; and 4) what you are not being told!]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Tipping points in Earths geophysical and biological systems
By Robert Ellison, Climate Etc. Mar 5, 2022
[SEPP Comment: How has the earth ever come back from “tipping points?” The earth is a dynamic place, “tipping points” are a human-invented static concept.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The IPCC would have you know
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 9, 2022
“The problem is not merely bad reporting. The IPCC bears much of the blame for its own misrepresentations. Its Summary for Policymakers includes such gems as ‘Human-induced climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme events, has caused widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people, beyond natural climate variability’ which as we’ve repeatedly noted is not a claim sustained by past scientific publications of, what’s that thing called, the IPCC.”
Climate radicals fueled Europe’s reliance on Putin’s gas. Now they want to make it worse
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 10, 2022
Evil or just greedy? Time to talk about The WEF [World Economic Forum]
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 10, 2022
German Paper: “A Mild Additional Temperature Rise Of Around 1°K”… Drop Not Excluded By 2100!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 6, 2022
Fossil Fuels Should Evoke Pride, Not Pandering, From Supporters
By Gregory Wrightstone, Real Clear Energy, March 04, 2022
Has the war killed green, woke, other pathological leftist movements?
By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, Mar 6, 2022
Biden says he ‘can’t do much’ about rising gas prices, blames Russia
By Steven Nelson, New York Post, Mar 8, 2022
White House officials accused of helping Putin and letting down European partners
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Mar 11, 2022
“It’s an utter travesty that officials in the Biden administration are able to block desperately needed energy support for European partners struggling to fight off Putin’s energy war.”
What Ukranian Refugee Crisis?–John Kerry
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 10, 2022
Russia and Iran Helped by Biden’s Blunders as Ukraine Suffers
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Mar 9, 2022
Observations on Banning vs. Sanctioning Russian Crude Oil
By Benjamin Zycher, Real Clear Energy, March 08, 2022
“The incoherence of the Biden administration energy policies — a combination of artificial constraints on domestic investments in resource expansion and transportation infrastructure combined with supplications to OPEC+ and other overseas producers for expanded output — is not helpful.”
Jen, Joe… Is it 9,000 leases or 9,000 permits that oil companies are allegedly sitting on?
By David Middleton, WUWT, Mar 9, 2022
“Do they not know the difference between a lease and a permit? Or do they just toss these words and numbers out, assuming no one will bother to check them out?
“A mineral lease is the exclusive rights to the mineral resources under a tract of land or seafloor.”
“’In the debate, Biden listed a number of proposals aimed at the oil and natural gas industry.
“’Number one, no more subsidies for the fossil fuel industry, no more drilling on federal lands, no more drilling, including offshore, no ability for the oil industry to continue to drill, period, ends, number one,’ Biden said.” [Western Wire, Mar 17, 2020
” Biden halts oil and gas leases, permits on US land and water.” [Jan 21, 2021]
Clips of Energy Sec. Granholm laughing off gas price concerns resurface as pain at pump intensifies
The average cost of a gallon of gas broke 4 dollars on Sunday for the first time in 14 years
By Andrew Mark Miller, Fox News, Mar 10, 2022
Granholm calls on oil producers to boost output: ‘We are on a war footing’
By Olafhihan Oshin, The Hill, Mar 9, 2022
[SEPP Comment: While trying to hobble North American producers. See link immediately above.]
A Biden-Buttigieg Solution to the Energy Crisis?
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, March 08, 2022
Blinken welcomes UAE support for increasing oil production
By Laura Kelly and Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Mar 9, 2022
Problems in the Orthodoxy
With the Foreign Secretary batting for UK shale gas, Boris is warned not to bottle it
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Mar 10, 2022
“The UK has become critically exposed to natural gas because the naive renewables-only policies of the last twenty years have suppressed all other high-quality fuels in the market.”
Boris Johnson’s shale gas intervention welcome: Now he has to finish the job
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Mar 9, 2022
Seeking a Common Ground
Who is to blame for the mess the world is in?
By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, ICECAP, Mar 7, 2022
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/who_is_to_blame_for_the_mess_the_world_is_in5/
Science, Policy, and Evidence
‘Climate Alarmism and Corporate Responsibility’ (2000 essay for today)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Mar 11, 2022
“It was called corporate social responsibility (CSR) [in 2000]. Today, it has morphed into Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG).]
Model Issues
Climate Model Democracy
By Andy May, WUWT, Mar 11, 2022
Measurement Issues — Surface
The sunburnt lands up north: Hay River NWT
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 9, 2022
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
CO2 Emissions Hit Record High in 2021
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 9, 2022
From IEA: “Global CO2 emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes1 rebounded in 2021 to reach their highest ever annual level. A 6% increase from 2020 pushed emissions to 36.3 gigatonnes (Gt), an estimate based on the IEA’s detailed region-by-region and fuel-by-fuel analysis, drawing on the latest official national data and publicly available energy, economic and weather data.”
[SEPP Comment: Apparently, the IEA is unaware we can measure CO2 in the atmosphere!]
Changing Weather
Rainfall Not Unprecedented, Skill at Forecasting Dismal
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Mar 8, 2022
Wrongly built drainage system led to Stonehaven train crash, not climate change
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 10, 2022
Why are winds stronger during the day?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 6, 2022
Changing Climate
A new assessment of extreme weather trends: floods
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 9, 2022
“So, if you’re looking to decrease flood risk, it’s warming you want.”
New Study Suggests The Early Holocene’s Baltic Sea Temperatures Were 5-11°C Warmer Than Present
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 7, 2022
Link to paper: Co-evolution of the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem in the Holocene Baltic Sea
By Gabriella M. Weiss, et al. Climate of the Past, Feb 4, 2022
Well-preserved fossils could be consequence of past global climate change
Press Release, University of Texas at Austin, Via WUWT, Mar 8, 2022
Link to paper: Global controls on phosphatization of fossils during the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event
By Sinjini Sinha, et al. Nature Scientific Reports, Dec 16, 2022
Changing Seas
Rising Seas and Government Greed
By Jeffrey Folks, American Thinker, Mar 7, 2022
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Monitoring Arctic permafrost with satellites, supercomputers and deep learning
Researchers characterize large, unexplored parts of Earth
Press Release, NSF, Mar 10, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Too bad NSF has learned nothing from over 40 years of satellite monitoring of the atmosphere.]
Thawing permafrost could leach microbes, chemicals into environment
By Jane J. Lee & Andrew Wang for JPL News, Pasadena CA (JPL) Mar 10, 2022
Link to article: Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic
By Kimberley Miner, et al, Nature, Permafrost Reviews, January 2022
[SEPP Comment: What is the physical evidence it did so during the last interglacial period?]
Changing Earth
An ‘Enormous Contribution’ To Earth’s Energy Budget Arises From Bottom-Up Geothermal Heating
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 10, 2022
Link to latest paper: Geothermal heating and episodic cold-seawater intrusions into an isolated ridge-flank basin near the Mid-Atlantic Ridge
By Keir Becker, Nature Communications Earth & Environment, Oct 29, 2021
“15% of modern global warming (ocean) can be attributed to geothermal heat fluxes through the sea floor that persistently heat the ocean.”
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
A Cautionary Tale: Good Idea, Disastrous Results
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Mar 11, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Organic farming is not without risks.]
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Hurricanes linked to 33 percent surge in death rates after storms
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Mar 8, 2022
Link to article: Association of Tropical Cyclones With County-Level Mortality in the US
By Robbie M. Parks, et al. JAMA, Mar 8, 2022
From the paper: “Conclusions and Relevance: Among US counties that experienced at least 1 tropical cyclone from 1988-2018, each additional cyclone day per month was associated with modestly higher death rates in the months following the cyclone for several causes of death, including injuries, infectious and parasitic diseases, cardiovascular diseases, neuropsychiatric conditions, and respiratory diseases.”
[SEPP Comment: Shallow paper. The devastating 1900 Galveston Hurricane did not cause an increase in deaths after the storm was over?]
Lowering Standards
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
Two NOAA authors describe a recent report on climate change and how it is already affecting the world’s human and natural systems.
Press Release, NOAA Fisheries, Mar 3, 2022
[SEPP Comment: NOAA taking pride in gross exaggeration and advocacy – includes video.]
BBC Climate Advice: Misery for Ordinary Britons, to Avoid the Need to Frack
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 11, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
A cure for insomnia
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 9, 2022
45M Americans breathing dirty air due to redlining, outlawed 50 years ago: research
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Mar 9, 2022
Link to paper: Historical Redlining Is Associated with Present-Day Air Pollution Disparities in U.S. Cities
By Haley M. Lane, Environmental Science Technology, Mar 9, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The Hill goes full green with photo of chimneys belching black smoke! The journal has science in its name, therefor the article must be true?]
Don’t just sit there, you dolts
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 9, 2022
“Well, in an article in The Hill, a publication apparently devoted to balanced far left coverage of the world as seen from Capitol Hill in Washington, Stuart Mackintosh claims that, well, you’re an idiot. ‘The climate change problem is so large and so all-consuming we can fail to get our collective hands and minds around it.’”
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Russia warns of $300 oil, threatens to cut off European gas if West bans energy imports
By Sam Meredith, CNBC, Mar 8, 2022
“U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report on the real-world impacts of the climate emergency as an ‘atlas of human suffering.’
“Guterres said the IPCC’s findings once again make it clear that ‘fossil fuels are choking humanity.’”
[SEPP Comment: With such exaggerations, has the UN outlived its value to humanity?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
“We Can’t Just Drill Our Way to Lower Gas Prices”, Biden Edition
By David Middleton, WUWT, Mar 11, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Guest Post by Rafe Champion: Soviet Sabotage of our Energy Supply
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 11, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The story of suppression of Alan Carlin is too typical of science at EPA. Note, he is a friend of Ken Haapala.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Charge of the lightweight brigade
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 9, 2022
“The great German leader @Luisamneubauer: ‘There will be no real freedom or sustainable peace anywhere as long as there’s dependency on fossil fuels’.”
[SEPP Comment: Without the heavy use of fossil fuels, we will return to peaceful activities such as the Napoleonic Wars, the American Civil War?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Extinction Rebellion Promises to Disrupt UK Refineries
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 10, 2022
[SEPP Comment: What will the government reaction be; minor despite mob rule of the streets as in Seattle and Portland, or repressive against peaceful protests as in the Canadian trucker’s protest?]
Questioning European Green
Nigel Farage Demands Referendum On “Ruinous” Net Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 7, 2022
EU Doubling Down on Net-zero
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Mar 4, 2022
It’s time to drop the net zero agenda–Spectator
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 10, 2022
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Column: Turn on the taps? What taps? What’s the matter with you people?
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Mar 9, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
“The hydrocarbon sector is not, to my experience, a slave organization. Neither is it shying away from supporting a anti-Putin war effort. The issue is much simpler than that: production simply cannot be materially increased quickly. It is a tragedy that the world is going to suffer because of that – through sky high prices and possibly food shortages – but the geopolitical wunderkinds that steadfastly maintain hydrocarbons are a dead end must ultimately bear responsibility for the fact that those hydrocarbons are not going to be there when the world needs them most. Sad days indeed.”
The Green Immoralists
By Victor Davis Hanson, Townhall, Mar 10, 2022
The Political Games Continue
Try it anyway
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 9, 2022
Litigation Issues
CEI Submits Appeal of Lack of Peer Review for EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Endangerment Finding
By Devin Watkins, CEI, Mar 11, 2022
Social Cost of Carbon Litigation – Who Will Have the Last Laugh?
By Marlo Lewis, Jr. CEI, Mar 10, 2022
Shortsighted Fossil Fuel State Lawsuits Backfire
By David Jenkins, Real Clear Energy, March 07, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Doe the President of Conservatives for Responsible Stewardship recognize that increased carbon dioxide is causing a greening of the earth? Does he oppose it?]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
US announces new emissions standards for trucks and buses
By AFP Staff Writers, Washington (AFP), March 7, 2022
“The proposed new standards for gasoline- and diesel-heavy vehicles would place stricter limits on nitrogen oxides (NOx) that cause smog and soot and set new greenhouse gas standards from 2030.”
[SEPP Comment: Unlike Europe, nitrogen oxides are not an issue in the US thanks to the use of Urea added in fuels for diesel heavy vehicles. The real purpose is to regulate carbon dioxide and water vapor!]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Ukraine and the Great Energy Reset
If there were ever a time for energy realism, it is now.
By Mark P. Mills, City Journal, March 7, 2022
Link to study: “Strategic Response Options if Russia Cuts Gas Supplies to Europe”
By Gabriel Collins, et al. Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, February 2022
“The fact is, exhortations aside, the world cannot easily, overnight, walk away from Russian energy. Europe gets 25 percent and 40 percent, respectively, of all its oil and gas from Russia. For Germany, the shares are 35 percent and 70 percent, as well as 50 percent of its coal needs.”
Building The EastMed Pipeline Would Help Free Europe From Russian Energy
By Nicholas Aderinto, Real Clear Energy, March 07, 2022
“Freeze To Hurt Putin” Sounds Better Than “Government Rationing Gas,”… German Pols Look To Sell Hardship
By P Gosselin. No Tricks Zone, Mar 9, 2022
“But generating electrical power from coal and nuclear will not solve the German heating problem, noted Blackout News. ‘It is completely utopian to believe that the heating system in 50 percent of all households can be quickly converted.’”
Net Zero To Cost £50 Billion a Year
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 5, 2022
Net Zero is for the little people
By Connor Tomlinson, Net Zero Watch, Mar 10, 2022
Energy Issues — US
2021 Long-Term Reliability Assessment
By Staff, North American Electric Reliability Corporation, December 2021
“In the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) area, a reserve margin shortfall previously reported is advancing from 2025 to 2024.”
“In the California-Mexico (CA/MX) part of WECC, the planned retirement of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant contributes to declining reserve margins in the area beginning in 2026. However, energy risks are present today as electricity resources are insufficient to manage the risk of load loss when wide-area heat events occur. Risk is most acute in late afternoon since there are energy limitations as solar photovoltaic (PV) resource output diminishes.
“The U.S. Northwest and Southwest parts of WECC have increasingly variable resource
profiles, raising the risk of energy shortfalls.”
Peak Absurdity In Energy Policy: As Prices Soar, The Biden Administration Goes Full Speed Ahead In The War On Fossil Fuels
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Mar 8, 2022
FERC has gone from “evaluate proposed natural gas infrastructure projects as to ‘public convenience and necessity.’” To: “Climate change poses a severe threat to the nation’s security, economy, environment, and to the health of individual citizens. Human-made greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including carbon dioxide and methane, are the primary cause of climate change.”
Democrats Can’t Solve Energy Problems Because They Don’t Understand They Are Causing Them
By H. Sterling Burnett, The Heartland Institute, Mar 10, 2022
America Needs to Mobilize Domestic Energy to Help Families, Lower Inflation and Punish Putin
By David Holt, Real Clear Energy, March 09, 2022
America Was Wrong About Ethanol – Study Shows
Video explaining foolishness of using corn-based ethanol, other ethanol-based fuels. Ethanol boosts octane, important for modern automobiles with gas engines but other sources are available.. [H/t William Readdy]
Link to one study: Environmental outcomes of the US Renewable Fuel Standard
By Tyler J. Lark, et al, PNAS, Feb 14, 2022
Washington’s Control of Energy
Manchin: Biden could invoke Defense Production Act to complete natural gas pipeline
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Mar 10, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Apply it to Keystone pipeline as well.]
Biden Wars Against Domestic LNG (gas-by-rail)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Mar 9, 2022
“PHMSA [ Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration] admits the purpose of the Proposed Rule is not really about safe transportation of hazardous materials in interstate commerce. Rather, it is intended to indirectly regulate the extraction, production, and ultimately consumption of natural gas….”
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Canada Says Its Oil Could Replace U.S. Imports Of Russian Crude
By Tsvetana Paraskova, OilPrice.com, Mar 07, 2022
“Alberta’s Energy Minister Sonya Savage: Alberta is the answer to US Energy security. Real emissions reductions, reliable, right next door.”
“Officials from Canada’s largest oil-producing province Alberta said that Canada could replace American imports of Russian crude oil.”
Why are Gasoline Prices Rising?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 8, 2022
Return of King Coal?
Europe Turns To South Africa For Coal As It Shuns Russia
By Tsvetana Paraskova , Oil Price.com, Mar 4, 2022
Fossils To The Rescue? Dismantling Of Huge Hamburg-Moorburg Coal Power Plant Halted
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 5, 2022
“The Hamburg-Moorburg coal-fired power plant was controversial from the get-go as operator Vattenfalls ‘was in constant dispute and legal battles with environmental and climate protectionists,’ reports Blackout News. ‘In the end, the power plant cost around three billion euros and was in operation for just six years.””
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Update 15 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine
By Staff, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mar 8, 2022
Radiation expert: Ukraine war could pose greater nuclear threat than Chernobyl
Radiation countermeasures expert Dr. Alla Shapiro, a Chernobyl first responder, says war conditions make it harder to save lives in event of attack on nuclear power plant
By Renee Ghert-Zand, The Times of Israel, Mar 9, 2022
Schumer pushes for ongoing funding for Indian Point communities after NY plant shutdown
By Thomas C. Zambito, lohud, Mar 9, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Solar Power Noise and Dust: For the Record
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Mar 8, 2022
“While quiet transformers and inverters exist [to reduce pure-tone transformer noise], due to premium cost, it is generally not a specification point the solar facility designers are willing to consider…. There is a real need for acoustic evaluation and noise control with respect to nighttime operations of solar energy components.”
[SEPP Comment: Doubt if the EPA will employ the fanatical Linear No Threshold model for dust as it does for fossil fuels.]
Do wind farms change the weather?
By David Wojick CFACT, Mar 8, 2022
Largest solar energy facility in Oregon gets final approval after legal battles
Lake Oswego-based Obsidian Renewables received a permit to build a solar energy facility in the high desert of Christmas Valley. It will be the largest in the Pacific Northwest
By Alex Baumhardt, Oregon Capital Chronicle, Mar 8, 2022
[SEPP Comment: $500 million for 400 MW of part-time electricity in an area with low low-end Solar Irradiance potential of less than 4 kWm/m2 per day? What a deal! https://www.nrel.gov/gis/assets/images/solar-annual-ghi-2018-usa-scale-01.jpg]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Electric Truck Hydropower, a flexible solution to hydropower in mountainous regions
By Staff Writers, Laxenburg, Austria (SPX), Mar 08, 2022
Link to paper: Electric Truck Hydropower, a flexible solution to hydropower in mountainous regions
By Julian David Hunt, et al. Energy, June 1, 2022
“Results show that the levelized cost of the electricity truck hydropower is 30–100 USD/MWh, which is cheap when compared with conventional hydropower 50–200 USD/MWh.”
[SEPP Comment: How long will the trucks last?]
‘Electric Truck Hydropower’ – A Real Breakthrough or a New Sokal Hoax?
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Mar 9, 2022
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above. Gives more detail.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Latest Capacity Market Auction Fails To Build New Plant Needed
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 7, 2022
“Batteries have taken 1.1 GW of the auction, but these should never have been allowed to compete, as they are incapable of supplying capacity for more than an hour or two. As Timera point out:
“’The 3.3GW (1 GW derated) of successful battery capacity represents around 5GWh of storage volume’
“The Capacity Market is intended to guarantee standby capacity for days and weeks, not hours. The same criticism applies to Demand Side Response (DSR).
“This auction has gone through at £30.60/Kw, already a record. As more and more older capacity shuts, we could well see this cost rise to £70/Kw or more, judging by the bidding price spreads:”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Nickel price surge could add $1,000 to production of an electric vehicle
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 10, 2022
“It looks like we’re trying to reduce our reliance on Russian oil by replacing it with dependence on Russian nickel!”
The cold hard truth about electric vehicles in winter
By Joann Muller and Margaret Harding McGill, Axios, Mar 4, 2022
California Dreaming
Examining California’s Renewable Energy Plan
The misanthropic cruelty of these laws ought to be obvious
By Edward Ring, California Globe, Mar 8, 2022
“If you live in California, by now you’ve probably seen the ads, either on prime time television or online, exhorting you to ‘Power Down 4 to 9PM.’ These ads are produced by ‘Energy Upgrade California,’ paid for by “investor-owned energy utility customers under the auspices of the California Public Utilities Commission and the California Energy Commission.”
Biden Admin’s Reinstatement of California’s Power to Rig Auto Markets Deserves to Lose in Court
Press Release by Marlo Lewis, Jr., CEI, Mar 9, 2022
Health, Energy, and Climate
All bad all the time
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 9, 2022
Link to paper: Global mortality from outdoor fine particle pollution generated by fossil fuel combustion: Results from GEOS-Chem
By Karn Vohra, et al. Environmental Research, April 2021
[SEPP Comment: More Linear No Threshold Model statistical fanaticism.]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Biden Sells Alaska Back To Russia So America Can Start Drilling For Oil There Again
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 9, 2022
Biden Orders Report on Climate Risk of Cryptocurrencies
Digital tokens are produced using energy-hungry computers, contributing to greenhouse gas emissions
By Corbin Hiar, E&E News, Via Scientific American, March 10, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Particularly the geothermal power in Iceland where a great deal of cryptocurrency is produced?]
Fossilized vampire squid named after Biden
By Maureen Breslin, The Hill, Mar 9, 2022
“The researchers decided to name the fossilized sea creature after the president because they were ‘encouraged by his plans to address climate change and to fund scientific research,’ The Guardian reported.”
[SEPP Comment: No backbone, but a nasty bite?]
Flat Warming vs. Joe Romm’s September 2017 Alarm
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Mar 10, 2022
Higher Maximum Temperature Increases the Frequency of Water Drinking in Mountain Gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei)
By Edward Wright, et al. Frontiers in Conservation Science, Mar 10, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
The Citroen Ami mini EV — the covered mobility scooter
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 5, 2022
Video: “Is it car, a domestic appliance, or a family pet?” “Or a mobility bubble?” “Not much of a car, but one hell of an umbrella.”
ARTICLES
Biden’s Bizarre Oil Diplomacy
He courts Venezuela and the Saudis, but not U.S. or Canadian producers.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, March 7, 2022
TWTW Summary: The editorial writers state:
“President Biden is scrambling to contain soaring oil prices, which closed at more than $123 a barrel on Monday. It speaks volumes about this Administration that it’s seeking help from Vladimir Putin’s client in Venezuela and our estranged Saudi allies rather than U.S. shale producers or our Canadian friends.
“Press Secretary Jen Psaki on Monday acknowledged reports that the Administration had sent emissaries to Caracas to discuss ‘energy security.’ The Administration may ease sanctions on Venezuelan oil to replace lost Russian supply, which buyers are shunning due to sanctions risk.
“The Trump Administration in early 2019 sanctioned Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA to squeeze Nicolas Maduro’s brutal regime, which has impoverished the country, persecuted political opponents and sent millions of refugees across the region.
But Venezuela continues to pump about 800,000 barrels a day with help from Russia and Iran. The Venezuelan has returned the favor by supporting Mr. Putin’s war on Ukraine and denouncing the West’s ‘economic war’ against the Russian people.
“Easing Venezuelan sanctions would be a strategic blunder that provides a financial lifeline to Mr. Maduro while doing little to ease the oil price spike. Venezuelan oil companies say they can increase production by several hundred thousand barrels a day in eight months. The war in Ukraine may be over by then.”
After discussing other bizarre behavior by the administration, the editorial concludes:
“Shale producers can increase production twice as fast as Venezuelan oil companies, and the profits would go to U.S. workers and shareholders rather than another dictatorship.”
Germany Is Responding to War in Ukraine by Accelerating Investment in Wind Turbines and Solar Farms | The New Republic
“…American oil and gas producers are hoping the European market will pivot toward them to replace Russian gas. But some in Europe, and specifically Germany, are eyeing a different path: rapidly accelerating toward 100 percent renewable energy…
…Last week (Germany’s climate minister) announced the government’s intention to expedite implementation of amendments to the Renewable Energy Sources Act, or EEG, providing a hard deadline of July 1, 2022. The EEG would double Germany’s onshore wind capacity from 55 to 110 gigawatts, while also increasing the offshore wind capacity to 30 GW….
…On the solar end of the spectrum, the EEG also aims to triple solar energy capacity to 200 GW by 2028 from the current 5 GW potential. The EEG will also suspend anticipated cuts to new solar panels on roofs, thus maintaining the economic incentive for private homeowners to invest in solar energy.”
Once again I point out to you that Europe’s response to cutting Russian gas is to double down on renewables roll out.
You forgot to mention that Habeck, the Green had to realise in public interview that security of energy is more important than the protection of the climate, that coal fired plants will continue to work as will the nuclear fired generators.
To increase wind and solar energy is only proof for actionism and the goal of wet dreamers like you are.
Also some intelligent people mention carpooling as adequat to punish Putin.
Published by an “universal” profesor ….
Idioty has no limits 😀
Germany in common with other European countries has to export to enable their population to enjoy a high standard of living.
But such manufacturing requires Energy. That is real energy, not the Greens dream of so called “”Clean”” energy.
Just building those windmills would generate far more CO2 than they the windmills would ever save during their short lifetime.
While the Green ministers will want others to go back to less affluent times, come the next election & the people will finally realise that the Climate Con is just that.
The people are slowly waking up.
Michael VK5ELL
As I read, they will not stop to import Russian NG because they need the energy and are dependant of.
Else they had to import Sibirian wood to burn it when there is no wind and sun.
That was a hint Putin made 10 years ago to his mate Merkel apropos German Energy Transition policy 😀
Re the work of
Harper & the Dutchman, let us not forget the work of David Coe.
A study of the gases actually in the World’s atmosphere is finally paying off, but the Greens will not want to know.
CO2 is all that they have, especially
as they cannot do anything about the effects of water vapour which is the main Greenhouse gas.
Michael VK5ELL
The leftard elite are insane. Much like you, griff.
From the “supporting evidence” selected by you …
Half of Europe’s wind plants will come to the end of their natural life by 2030 according to Wind Europe so Germany in particular will simultaneously be taking a lot of wind power out of service
Well, Germany has never been known for holding back on extreme lunacy.
And we have also the spectacle of Germans reviving the burning of brown coal to produce electrical energy. This underscores something I have noticed in many organizations, large and small. There are often, maybe always, two competing groups trying to advance very different agendas. For example, in all the COVID theater of 2020-now, there were conflicting statements coming from the CDC and WHO. One recognized that masks provided little to no benefit for the general public. This group had quite a lot of science on its side, especially scientific randomized clinical trials done before the COVID hysteria hit. The other group typified by Robert Redfield and Rochelle Walensky have continued to the present time to say that masks could reduce the probability of transmission by 85% and we must wear them. Now, such a reduction would drop R0 to a value less than one in any event and stop the exponential growth within 5-10days. No such thing was ever observed anywhere.
Another is the battle over Keynesian economic policies, and energy policy, and approaches to foreign aid, and welfare, and so forth.
One would wish that the more sensible of these competing groups would manage to press their agenda forward, but my observations indicate it is the less sensible group that always has the advantage — probably because their narrative fits better with impaired (i.e. stone age) cognition of masses of people.
Coal related trivia:
Bosnia is still using 5 steam engine trains built by Germany during WW2. They haul coal from a mine to a power station. Designed to last 10 years, these engines are still going strong 80 years later.
https://youtu.be/bH96yjd6BKU