By Kirye
and Pierre
The meteorological winter, defined as December 1 to February 28, has just ended and the data for mean winter temperature are available for the Pacific island nation of Japan up to 2022.
So are winters getting colder, or are they getting milder like the media like to have everyone believe?
Tokyo winters see no warming in 37 years
First we look at the mean DJF winter temperature for Tokyo going back 37 years, using the untampered data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA):
Source: JMA.
Had we cherrypicked and started the plot in 1988, i.e. excluded the colder 1985-87 winters, then we would see Tokyo winters have gotten colder and harsher – the opposite of what CO2 climate alarmists are claiming. Everything looks completely natural.
Hachijō-jima island no warming in decades
Next, also using the data from the JMA, we plot the mean annual temperature of the Tokyo island of Hachijō-jima, located about 287 kilometers south of Tokyo – away from urban sprawl and heat island affects:
Data: JMA.
Though the last two winters were mild, the winter trend since 1948 at Hachijō-jima has been cooling. No warming going on here.
Japan winters have been cooling
Concerning the entire island country of Japan as a whole, here’s the plot of mean winter temperatures going back to 1988 (up to 2021):
Source: JMA.
There hasn’t been any sign of warming in Japan since all the hype began in 1988. Go figure.
8 Western Electric Rules for noisy systems
So what can we say about data from Japan? Interested readers could check to see if the data pass all of the 8 “Western Electric Rules”, meaning the system is statistically stable and the year-to-year variability is just statistical noise.
Japan Sees NO WINTER WARMING In Decades
Well, no surprise there.
Japan is surrounded by water with high thermal capacity, with no notable extra input from the sun, no ocean’s warming should be expected.
CO2 is just a money gravy train for non jobs or ‘get a grant’ chance spinning wheel.
Guardian reports:”Carbon dioxide will have to be removed from air to achieve 1.5C, says Adair Turner, chair of the UK’s Energy Transitions Commission thinktank, the former head of the CBI and ex-chair of the UK government’s Committee on Climate Change”
May be he should consider stop exhaling about 500 litres (1kg) daily of the said carbon dioxide.
” Tokyo winters see no warming in 37 years ”
That is a long period. It is probably the Japanese Pause; five times longer than The PauseTM
Since 1995 there has been a strong warming trend…just look at the last graph. Confirming whatever one wants to cherry pick.
And you certainly “cherry picked” yourself! Good way to show how the warmist cabal comes up with their computer model results!
Attached is a graph of the heating degree-days from one Toyko measuring station beginning in Jan, 2000
I see no indication of a strong warming trend.
Nice cherry picking, D ! I wonder if you have grasped the concept of “trend”…
Don’t you suppose it means something that one can take these temperature records, and depending on where one starts, can find whatever trend one wants to find?
Averaging only smooths over the natural variability, like the old joke about standing with one’s feet in hot water and head in the freezer, and proclaiming an average temperature of whatever.
That much variability in the system means that all of these statistical games being played with global temperatures are meaningless.
So are winters getting colder, or are they getting milder like the media like to have everyone believe?
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Here in Milwaukee winters seem to be milder. Anyone born before 1955 sure knows that the winters in the ’70s were damn cold. There’s a reason the media was bleating about Global Cooling back then. Minus fifteen Fahrenheit or lower was a regular occurrence in those years. Since 1991 there have been only four years, 1994 -20°, 1996° -26°, 1999-15°, 2019 -22° Source that it got that cold in Milwaukee, and it wasn’t for more than a day or two. In the ’70s cold snaps lasted for days on end.
The IPCC does tell us that nights, winters and the Arctic will see warming. Not everything that the IPCC says is bullshit. Jesus said, “Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar’s, and unto God the things that are God’s.” Well, “Agree with the IPCC those things that they are correct about and take them to task when they are wrong.
Yabut … 1970 was 52 years ago. The article points out that:
So, have Milwaukee winters warmed since 1984?
If the story was that, globally, winters haven’t warmed in the last 37 years, that would be way more meaningful.
The more provisos you attach to something, the less meaningful it is.
That could mean our small town is very very woke, or it could mean that our town is pretty normal and a bunch of random stuff happened at the same time.
“Tokyo Winters Haven’t Warmed Since 1984!” is an anecdote. On the other hand, if we get enough anecdotes, we’ve got data. 🙂
So, have Milwaukee winters warmed since 1984?
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Here’s a nice graph from the Wisconsin Climatology Office:
I look at that, and it looks like a warm-up since 1960 right on through to the present. 2021 and 2022 don’t show on that graph yet, but you can click on those years under the [Daily High and Low Temperatures] from my link above.
The reverse, the IPCC’s claim about heat waves does not seem to be true for a large area of the United States:
People accuse me of cherry picking May to October, but that is the warm part of the year and that’s where you should look for heat waves if you want to find them. November to April wouldn’t be productive. But it’s true summer afternoons in much of the eastern United States have cooled down. That graph is a few years old now and needs to be re-done.
The NH land masses are now getting 0.7W/sq.m less sunlight in August and September than in 1970. However April and May have increased by 0.8W/sq.m. There should be an overall upward trend in temperature but most notably in spring with late summer actually getting cooler.
Good temperature records show the orbital trend.
Winter sunlight over NH land masses has only declined in December. Both January and February have got more sunlight in the last 50 years. Eventually the winter sunlight will decline in all three months.
I grew up on the banks of the Ohio River near Wheeling, WV, and I remember seeing the river frozen from bank to bank in the late 1970s. Friends of mine from the Baltimore-Annapolis area remember the Magothy River freezing over during that time so much that they drove out on it in cars.
It was, to use a highly technical term, BALDY-ASS cold back in the late 1970s.
On the other hand, what about he increase in floods and landslides caused by an increase in exceptional rain?
The Japan Meteorological Agency has termed recent (summer 2021) rainfall levels as “unprecedented” as they have damaged homes, disrupted transportation and caused a landslide in the southern part of the country. It also alerted of heavy rain and mudslide warnings in the Kyushu region to other parts of Japan, including Hiroshima, as the rain front slowly moved eastward. While in the whole of 2020, the Ureshino town, located in the Saga prefecture, had experienced about 3.3 metres of rain, it has about one metre of rain in just four days.
On the other hand, what about he increase in floods and landslides caused by an increase in exceptional rain?
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Changing the subject is a well respected way of avoiding answers that a person doesn’t like.
Yep, while America sleeps, Griff spends our nighttime moving goalposts. I hate to think of the size of its carbon footprint. Yuge!
I have to respectfully disagree. Changing the subject isn’t a “well respected way…” It’s a commonly used ploy… I agree with the rest.
Please, allow me: not “respected”. Perhaps “still tolerated”. Actually, “shameless”.
Look – squirrel!
For the attention of the useful idiot…
“No statistically significant long-term trend is observed in annual or seasonal precipitation over Japan.”
“No long-term trend is observed in the number of typhoons approaching or making landfall on Japan. “
“No long-term trend is observed in the number of strong typhoons or in their percentage among all typhoons”
“No statistically significant long-term trend is observed in the frequency/intensity of storm surges along the Japanese coast.”
“No statistically significant change is observed in the Antarctic Sea ice extent”
– Japan Meteorological Agency.
Griff is making things up (lying) to justify his faith, as usual.
Yes, as usual.
I downloaded the precipitation data from Sasebo, about 40km from Ureshino, just to see what the Grifter had got his/her knickers in a twist over.
As usual, nothing to see.
Thanks for confirming Griff’s dishonesty.
Idiot, definitely. that doesn’t make him useful.
“On the other hand…”
You’re really stuffed for an answer, aren’t you, griff.
Thanks for the laugh.
You keep using that word (unprecedented). I don’t think it means what you think it means.
Griff
The only thing that is unprecedented is your idiocy.
Griffter’s twisted perverted slanted view is beginning to change my opinion – NOT!
Yea, you accidentally got something right Griff. There has been an increase in winter SNOW coverage in the NH according to Rutgers.
You know that white stuff Viner said British children would never see.
griff, after seeing what Climate believer cited from the Japan Meteorological Agency, it came to my mind that your knowledge of the Japanese language is somewhat vague…
The important thing to remember about the data coming from Japan is, NASA/NOAA can always adjust it to make it reflect a preferred picture…..
Obviously that is the case. Further, prediction is hard.
It used to be a given that meteorological organizations were wrong much of the time. Now, however, they are paid to spin a narrative and the leftists who have infiltrated such organizations don’t have the morals to resist doing so.
Then, the gretas of the world, some with smaller brains than others, eat up their shit.
The Japanese weather models have outperformed the US and European all winter.
Yeah. I don’t know which station/s for Tokyo were used in this article’s graph, but my plot of the NOAA GHCN-Monthly adjusted data did not match up all that well.
This is a disaster.
As has been explained here many times before, it is the Colderization that causes the Warmuling. In this case we have an Unprecedented 37 years of Colderization which has built up. It is now obvious (and trivial to show) that we now have the corresponding 37 years of Warmuling In The Pipeline. Once the Tipping Point Tips, all that Warmuling will be released ALL AT ONCE.
It Will Be:
A Disaster.
A Catastrophe.
A Catastrophic Disaster.
A Disastrous Catastrophe.
It will be way Worse Than We Thought.
Enjoy the cherry blossoms in Tokyo while you can and try not to remind yourself as to who caused all this.
It will be way Worse Than We PREVIOUSLY Thought.
There, I fixed it for you (-:
Yup!
No warming in 37 years? We have an algorithm for that.
You could apply my recently announced data correction procedure of Pasteurization which is adding heat to a data set to achieve the desired result. But doing so at this point would interfere with my thesis that in this case the Colderization causes the Warmuling.
Science!
“Pasteurization” 😂
BEST (or GISS or whatever hissing liars you want to cite): Uh, er ahem! We, uh, we homogenized, but, that didn’t do the trick. We must now PASTEURIZE to get the, uh, the bugs out.
Where would the Denier narrative be without desperate attempts at cherry picking as per this example…? All these silly little gestures still don’t obfuscate the simple reality that the planet continues to warm, sea levels continue to rise, and atmospheric CO2 levels continue to climb.
And, so what? You believe none of this has never happened before? Really?
The climate is changing! The climate is changing! We’re all gonna diiieeee!
Throughout the planet’s history, the natural temperature has been driven by seismic/geological, carbon, Milankovitch, and solar cycles. (And of course there have been impact events scattered in.) The temperatures and CO2 levels have varied as a result of these cycles.
But the current spike in global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are well outside of any natural cycle. And we know that human activity is behind this, with the widespread burning of fossil fuels increasing the greenhouse effect by driving up the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The science is rock-solid. There is no debate at this point. https://thelogicofscience.com/2016/06/06/global-warming-isnt-natural-and-heres-how-we-know/?fbclid=IwAR2v1Oig0BSjIkP9I8SswXLV-QdDXkJqfPpbyjOtNzzQBeZGyhQhbB7Z65g
” burning of fossil fuels increasing the greenhouse effect by driving up the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The science is rock-solid.”
The only thing rock-solid that I can see, is your faith.
”But the current spike in global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are well outside of any natural cycle.”
What ”spike”?
“But the current spike in global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are well outside of any natural cycle”
Really? You think it has never been hotter on Earth than it is today?
You can’t be certain of that because the farther one goes back in time, the lower the resolution of both the time measurement and the measurement of the variable such as temp or CO2. Thus, the uncertainty envelope increases and the slope of the changes becomes uncertain.
There are lots of things wrong with the claims in your link, which I’m not going to take time to address in detail. However, look up Occam’s Razor.
This is what Occam’s Razor looks like, Clyde.
http://railsback.org/FQS/FQSCO2&Temperature-Holocene02.jpg
No, Occam’s Razor speaks to explanations for why something happens. It isn’t a method of extrapolating or splicing measurements.
The graphs you present are instrumental measurements spliced to proxy estimates. That is exactly the problem I was talking about above. Done properly, the instrumental measurements would be smoothed. Actually, all the data should be smoothed with a kernel that approximates the best estimate of the oldest data in the time series.
Importantly, the seasonal variations in CO2 are highest for the Arctic, lowest for the Antarctic, with Mauna Loa intermediate. Yet, all the data are thrown together. It is akin to providing the average weight of cherries, apples, and watermelons.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Occams-razor
Your sophomoric grasp on philosophy is bad enough. That you attempt to warp it beyond all recognition in an attempt at pretense is just downright amusing. There’s no graceful way out of this exchange for you, Clyde. Occam’s razor is clearly articulated in the overwhelming volume of data establishing the causation of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 as a result of burning fossil fuels on global temperatures. That’s not even remotely up for debate, even for bathroom-stall philosophers.
Oh dear Barry that’s very weak, you’re not on twitter here.
It IS, in fact, instructive to look at individual places. Doing that shows how highly variable weather and weather trends are from place to place. Look at enough places and you will learn that something close to a third of all weather stations show a stable or declining temperature trend.
The clear message to all climate alarmists, like you, BareRant, is that before you blame some local event, like a decline in Sake production, on the (fake) climate “crisis” you had better check to see if the local conditions actually show a warming trend. It very well might not.
Yet another “No Brain” response! Obviously Barry has no idea that “climate” is a cyclic pattern, based on solar variations!
guys remember that Barry here has to keep his religious beliefs going at all costs or he might be labeled a heretic.
With the current price of oil, too bad that Japan did all their warming between 1982-1984. They could have been a tropical paradise by now. It must have been all the cars manufacturing as the took over the American car market in the early1980’s, (tongue in cheek). Even with all that hot magna under the islands, they still didn’t heat up. Nothing more picturesque than hot springs imbedded in lovely Japanese garden snowscapes.
This actually is a strong indicator of the effect of Urban Heat Islands (UHI) on the temperature record. Japan is densely populated in most of its urban areas, and they havent been increasing in size for decades. Thus, the UHI effect would not be noticeable on the temperature record since its already maxed out.
The Western Electric Rules are the interesting thing presented here.
Drawing barely perceptible trend lines on such highly variable and selective (single season) graphs is, as I think the authors realize, is nonsensical even if the time period is over the climate-necessary 30 years. The absence of any significant warming (or cooling, btw) would be eyeball-apparent on a properly scaled graph.
Tokyo should be warming over that period due to the heat island effect increase from the intense urbanization of the Tokyo area, during which Tokyo has gained an additional 5 million people.
The variation is over a range of 4 degrees Celsius. I do not consider that large when absolute zero is -273C. Ocean temperature possible range is -1.8C to 32C. So even on that scale 4C is quite small variation.
The trend has significance but maybe not natural as the winter trend in sunlight over NH land masses should is slightly up not down over the last 50 years.
Yes, I was not acquainted with the WER and find them interesting.
Clyde ==> Cool uh? Very dependent on the time axis — so one has to be careful. suppose we look at decadal GMST — not the right scale. But daily temperature? Maybe. weekly temps in a single location? Maybe.
Production in your factory week by week? yeah.
Have to admire the honesty here.
“Had we cherrypicked and started the plot in 1988, i.e. excluded the colder 1985-87 winters, then we would see Tokyo winters have gotten colder and harsher…”
“There hasn’t been any sign of warming in Japan since all the hype began in 1988. Go figure.“
Wow, significant… how many other countries have the same weather records?
GISS agrees that there has been no winter warming since 1988 (Up to 2021 as current February not available.)
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
The Southern Ocean cooling reflects the downward trend in austral spring sunlight in the SH. Down almost 1w/sq.m in Sept, Oct and Nov. over the past 50 years. The thermal lag causes that to be reflected months later.
The decline in insolation over the SH oceans over the next 10,000 years is significant but increasing ice sea extent will temper the resulting cooling. The water beneath the ice will never be cooler than -1.8C and is insulated from heat loss by the ice above.
A friend has been looking at individual sites where you would expect Arctic amplification to show up. Many, many sites have little to no warming and some even cooling over a long period of years. Very similar to this. Not many sites with enough warming to offset this.
No, there is and never was “global warming.” And the argument for “climate change” misrepresents the weather. Activists for a cause always prioritize their own interests.
I guess the urbanization reached its peak decades ago and hence no more warming.
“Simples!” as another commenter-sage likes to say.
Are you quoting a Russian oligarch? For shame!
I think the Japanese have greater respect for carefully taken data than today’s end-justifies-the-ugly-means demogogue climateers. Japanese meteorologists reported basically the same thing for Irish, French and other EU countries.
There are certainly at least two reasons that Tokyo is seen to be cooling in line with the rest of the World. Firstly, Japan is a small island complex country, surrounded by water of great thermal capacity,. Secondly, Tokyo has now reached a plateau of urban structure where industrial and heating energy input is stable. There is no growing UHI in Tokyo, only weather..
We are sitting here in New Orleans having a freeze. In mid March. This is almost unheard of. You tell me!