Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t Breitbart; According to Russia’s TASS news agency, China and Russia are negotiating a 100 million ton coal deal. This is in the wake of a 40 million ton coal deal with India.
Russia, China work on agreement for supplying 100 mln tonnes of coal — Energy Ministry
18 FEB, 19:45
It is reported that consumers’ needs to be obtained
MOSCOW, February 18. /TASS/. Russia and China are developing an intergovernmental agreement on the supply of coal in the amount of 100 mln tonnes, Head of Department of Foreign Economic Cooperation and Fuel Markets Development at the Russian Energy Ministry Sergey Mochalnikov announced on Friday.
Mochalnikov recalled that in October 2021, Russia and India signed a memorandum on the supply of 40 mln tonnes of coal to India as part of the Russian Energy Week. “Now an intergovernmental agreement with the People’s Republic of China is being developed, and the figure is 100 mln tonnes,” he said.
“In the coming years, consumers should receive as much coal as they need,” Mochalnikov said.
As follows from Mochalnikov’s presentation, the share of Russian coal in the Asia-Pacific market in 2021 was 12%. At the same time, since 2010 this figure has increased by 8 percentage points – from 4% to 12%).
Read more: https://tass.com/economy/1405789
China suffered severe energy shortages in 2021, thanks to their ill considered geopolitical games with imports of Australian coal, and Premier Xi Jinping’s 2021 attempt to power the Chinese economy by magic, perhaps in an effort to look good on the world stage during COP21.
With rising industrialisation in Africa, with China, India and other Asian powers engaging in a naval and military arms race, ramping up their military industrial production in preparation for the coming military confrontation in the South China Sea, and floods in China in 2021 likely causing long term damage to coal production in some districts, global demand for coal likely to remain strong for the foreseeable future.
Reports of the death of King Coal were greatly exagerated.
Ole King Coal was a merry old soul, and a merry old soul was he.
He called for his pipe and he called for his bowl, and he called for his fiddlers three.
Yes, the alarmists should give it up. There’s no way they are going to reduce the amount of CO2 going into the atmosphere. The tiny reductions the West is making will be offset by the increases everywhere else.
The West is spinning its wheels when it comes to reducing CO2 worldwide.
Happily, this will make no difference to the Earth’s weather because there is no evidence CO2 has anything to do with it in the first place.
Considering LNG prices in Europe, it looks likely they will return to coal as well. The major reason coal is declining in the US was a combination of fracked gas, and the political risk of investing in an asset that is subject to political hazards.
it’s like reading Foundation And Empire in the news
“back to coal and oil, are they?”
superstition and ignorance take many costly forms
Sorry for being facetious, but I had to laugh. Just downthread Hari Seldon showed up!
I read the Foundation trilogy before high school, and I think Asimov’s historical generalizations left me better informed about human incentives throughout history than any class. To this day.
I can only confirm your statement: Also for me has been the Foundation Trilogy revealing, and maybe it has been the most useful book in my life. Two things:
—I am almost completely sure, that we are very close to a Seldon-crise: See using the “CO2- und climate hysteria” and its consequences (trying to enforce a world rule by the globalists)
—I am also surprised, that bis dato no any movie exists on the basis of the Foundation Trilogy
There is a series made by Appletv, called Foundation, and it is loosely based on the Foundation books. I watch it on Plex. If the climate hoax pimps succeed, we will indeed all be terribly impoverished.
Yes and the political risk came first. We had a huge power generation building boom around 2001, well before the fracking revolution. We built about 200,000 MW of new capacity all at once — all gas fired. Coal was clearly on the way out at that point. Fracking then saved us but it was not planned at the time.
I wouldn’t worry about it, Vlad the Terrible is about to persuade the Germans to start digging again, and the Poles are looking forward to ship Mega tons of it to the UK, far easier to load and offload than LNG.
Let’s see tomorrow, now Olympics are over comrade Xi can’t wait, if I was Taiwanese I would be brushing up on mandarin.
EU court orders a Polish coal mine to pause operations
Poland generates about 70 percent of its electricity from coal, mined by a dwindling but still politically powerful mining sector.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-court-orders-polish-coal-mine-to-pause-operations-lawsuit/
Sounds like the EU plans to drive more countries out of the EU.
UK out, 15 more to go
Turow is a brown coal (lignite) mine. One cannot transport lignite over a large distance. Besides, the issue is nonexistent anymore:
https://www.vlada.cz/en/media-centrum/aktualne/the-prime-ministers-of-the-czech-republic-and-the-republic-of-poland-signed-an-agreement-to-address-the-impacts-of-mining-activities-at-the-turow-mine-194312/tmplid-81/
Taiwan will be a tough nut to crack- far more difficult than Ukraine. Think of how well Japan held off a huge American invasion of Iwo Jima. Taiwan has been preparing for over 70 years. Much of Taiwan is mountains and I bet they’re well dug in- and commy China knows it. I should think Taiwan must have a vast supply of anti aircraft and anti ship missiles even if they have a small army. Russia and China both need to cool off- invading other countries isn’t in their long term interest.
Not to mention that the TSMC chip foundry, the crown jewel of Taiwan’s industry, is extremely vulnerable and not likely to survive and invasion.
“Taiwan will be a tough nut to crack- far more difficult than Ukraine.”
I think so, too, and Ukraine is not going to be such an easy nut to crack, either. The Russians can go in, but after they are in, is when it’s not going to be so easy for them. The Ukrainians will be picking them off one at a time. Putin will be dealing with more Russian bodybags going home to the unhappy relatives of those in the bodybags.
It’s soon going to be “mud season” in Ukraine. Not a good time for tanks and trucks.
Hm, why should GB buy coal from Poland? GB has own coal reserves even for some hundred years.
Hari, when you are into virtue signaling, mining is a no-no, and mining coal is a double no-no (no-no-no-no), but importing coal and using it to generate electricity is only a no. Guess which wins?
AKA California?????
“The United Kingdom imported over three million U.S. dollars worth of coal from Poland in 2019. Since 2010, imports of coal briquettes and similar items have decreased, falling from a peak of 71.9 million U.S. dollars in 2011”
Indeed. Partly because we have demolished all but 2(?) of our coal power stations. If Poland shipped us coal, how would we use it?
Drax was a coal plant converted to wood chip, it can be converted back to what it use to be.
and sited on top of its own coal mine for efficiency.
Drax is not on top of its own coal mine and never was.
The highly successful Selby mine complex was fairly close, but was (ridiculously) closed down 20 years ago.
The mine shafts at Wistow, Stillingfleet and Riccall were capped but not filled. The shafts at North Selby and Whitemoor and the top sections of the mine drifts at Gascoigne Wood (where the coal was actually raised and exported to Drax and many other users) were all filled and sealed.
Mine gas has been continually extracted at Stillingfleet for local electricity generation since closure, extremely profitably, but amounts extracted decline.
Of course, the coal seams under and close to Drax remain and could have been accessed by the Snaith Prospect. A prospect aborted by genius politics.
Eggborough Power Station (in the vicinity) is yet to be competely demolished but will be soon.
But where are Mining Engineers and Coal Miners to come from? China?
And the UK Government is still racing full throttle towards the cliff edge.
What’s not to love?
What language do you think they speak in Taiwan?
George Friedman points out the logistical, and political, and economic difficulty of invading Taiwan. link
The other thing that makes it hard for China to invade Taiwan is that the Taiwanese have seen what China is doing in Hong Kong. That will stiffen the Taiwanese backbone for sure.
China has way more enemies than friends. Taiwan, on the other hand has all the neighboring countries who aren’t willing to see China pick them off one by one.
I don’t have a crystal ball but I would be very surprised if China were to attempt an invasion.
A 110 nm wide Taiwan Strait makes any invasion plan extremely difficult … combined with the fact that there is only a relatively small beach on the west coast of Taiwan, meaning all defenses can be concentrated on that small area … unlike the 200+ miles of beach that the Germans had defend from Normandy to the Netherlands. The Germans were tricked by the allies into believing the invasion force would land at Calais, instead of Normandy.
Taiwan is a small island. China doesn’t need beaches, all it needs to do is to bomb the place till everything is destroyed. I suspect that China doesn’t give a toss whether the island is then worth anything or even whether anyone is still alive – by ending Taiwan’s separateness the Chinese save face, and that’s always the top priority.
“save face” – I never understood why so much political capital was wasted by the Chinese on Taiwan. Beijing could have been all nicy-nice with Taiwan, all kinds of cultural, political and economic exchanges and links and Taiwan would be basically part of China already. It’s a waste of money for an invasion, China has already shown how much control it can exert in other countries, like US, Canada, those in Europe, etc., without firing a shot. Xi is an idiot and Deng a genius – the whole of democracy was with it’s guard and pants down until Xi took over and started making war noises, so 19th century. He doesn’t get it that it’s much easier and better just to buy and invest in your ‘enemies’ than to attack and invade them.
Has Xi some personal vendetta against Taiwan?
AFAIK his father was killed in a party purge, so I really can’t see why he gives a rats-ass about Taiwan.
All that freedom which invigorated the Chinese economy also manifested as political and ideological freedom, and that threatened the CCP’s hold on the country. Xi took it personally, got the CCP to make him dictator for life, making his decisions devoid of accountability, leading to inept decisions, and that backed him into a corner which he cannot get out of without losing face.
The next step was the usual: distract the populace from domestic problems with foreign devils.
He’s writing checks his military and economy cannot cash.
Excellent comment, PCman999.
Xi should have tried the non-beligerent approach. The Chicoms have almost managed to buy all the influential people in the United States without firing a shot and they could do the same anywhere there are greedy human beings, and presumabley there are greedy human beings in Taiwan, so there’s no reason they could not do their undermining there, too.
Look at the actor, Jackie Chan, for an example of how the Chicoms corrupt people. Sorry, Jackie, I don’t watch your movies anymore. I used to love you, but after you smeared the United States, cowtowing to the Chicoms, now, when I see you on tv all I see is a communist stooge, and I can’t suspend reality enough to enjoy your movies. So goodbye.
Xi needed a charm offensive instead of a military confrontation. But now it is too late as everyone sees Xi is not very charming at all, instead, he is a dangerous, ego-maniac. Ruthless dictators usually are.
Taiwan has a lot in common with Switzerland. That includes mountainous terrain and lots of lovely bunkers.
Hitler wisely kept his hands off Switzerland and China would be well advised to keep its hands off Taiwan. link
Xi will realize that failing in an invasion of Taiwan would be very bad for his career, and possibly his well being.
Anyway, given the geography, obliterating Taiwan with bombs wouldn’t be trivial.
But obliterating the TSMC foundries would be trivial.
Face 1: Has his ego rattled the Taiwan saber too much to leave room to back down?
Face 2: Is he prepared to lose more face with a failed Taiwan invasion?
Face 3: Is he prepared to lose even more face with a Taiwan invasion botched by losing the TSMC foundries?
I have often said that North Korea is not nearly the threat the US makes it out to be, precisely because the Kim and his top generals would rather keep their luxurious lifestyle than risk it all in a real war. I don’t know about Xi, but I would not be surprised if his generals feel the same and would rather depose Xi than lose everything in an invasion, successful or failed.
“I don’t know about Xi, but I would not be surprised if his generals feel the same and would rather depose Xi than lose everything in an invasion, successful or failed.”
I think that’s a possiblity. All this focus on incorporating Taiwan into China is from Xi. He, and his ego, is what is driving this, and others in the leadership may see the pitfalls in invading Taiwan.
We are living in those interesting times they talk about.
Mainland China understands that as long at Taiwan’s government continues to exist, it still has claim on the mainland. They fear that the world could again side with Taiwan and their claim to control of the mainland would be at risk. If they eliminate the government of Taiwan, there would be no-one to challenge their control of the government. It’s kind of like the fable of the elephant being afraid of a mouse however there is the unlikely possibility that the people of the mainland would overthrow the communist government and favor rule by Taiwan, the historical government of the mainland.
The communist party isn’t rational and it’s like giving a child a box of matches. They will do things without proper judgement that could be harmful to their own self interest because it makes them feel good. In the end it will cost the world a good deal to correct the problem. The biggest mistake the Nixon made wasn’t Water Gate but was China. I thought it was a bad idea at the time and unfortunately time has proven me correct.
If Nixon had recognized China without derecognizing Taiwan, that would have been much better. But I don’t know if Taiwan’s government would have accepted that. I don’t even remember if Taiwan was still a KMT dictatorship or had become a democracy. But it would have been a lot better for the world without Mao telling the US and the world who they could recognize.
Nixon started the dialogue with the Chicoms.
Carter and Clinton started the big giveaway to the Chicoms. Carter for delusional reasons, and Clinton for personal monetary reasons.
China’s economy depends on global trade far more than its trading partners depend on China. Attacking Taiwan would dry up that trade immediately, and not recover for years. All the trading partners could switch to each other far easier than China could become self-sufficient.
Good point.
“China has way more enemies than friends. Taiwan, on the other hand has all the neighboring countries who aren’t willing to see China pick them off one by one.”
Good point.
Another thing for the Chicoms to consider is Taiwan may be in possesion of nuclear weapons. Something like that would sure throw a kink into Chicom invasion plans.
What if China’s slow game is to send immigrants to Taiwan?
And fentanyl.
At $90+ a barrel for oil, the coal to oil business could also start growing.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Coal-To-Liquid-Fuel-Could-Become-Much-Cheaper.html
I can see oil price going down if Russia invades Ukraine, considering that Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia.
As far as I understand well over 40% of it’s oil goes to Chine which may not be affected but nearly 50% that goes to Europe would be taken down to a trickle by sanctions.
Putin would have to flood Asian market with it to get some money coming in, because Europeans would have to boycott the Russian gas too. Bad news for Putin is that two out of three largest oil exporting terminals are in the Baltic sea, while third one in the Sea of Japan most likely take care of the Chinese needs. There is also Murmansk but that is in the Arctic Ocean.
Which is why it would be extremely dumb for Russia to invade Ukraine. Besides, Putin’s main objective is to split NATO, not own Ukraine. He has already failed, but is still stretching out the drama to try and extract concessions from NATO.
“is still stretching out the drama to try and extract concessions from NATO”
I think this is what Putin is doing. And it may get him somewhere as Biden says he will meet with Putin in the next few days if Putin will refrain from invading Ukraine.
Putin might refrain but Putin will want something for doing so. Biden can’t go to a future meeting and just repeat what he has said before, he is going to have to make a new offer.
I can see oil price going down if Russia invades Ukraine….
I can see Russia’s oil income going down–perhaps that is what you mean. The global price of oil would almost certainly go up if Russian oil was taken off the market.
The United States of America has one of the largest coal reserves in the world.
We should use it.
You will before long!
We will again.
Meanwhile it rests.
======
The real problem is that California, Washington, and Oregon keep Wyoming and Montana from exporting coal on the west coast. They block the construction of a coal terminal. Fortunately, the Canadian coal export terminal in Vancouver is being expanded, so exports can be made from there. Interesting that they facilitate our coal exports, while we won’t permit their Keystone XL pipeline. Either way, coal use will increase. Nothing can replace it but nuclear or natural gas. Solar and wind can’t even keep up with the growth in electricity use, which by the way, causes the emission of more CO2 than vehicles. See this chart of Bill Gates’ book:
“Interesting” How about the CDN Prime Minister shutting down CDN thermal coal production. Albeit 90% of Canada’s thermal coal is in the CDN Prairies. The PM’s base Quebec, Ontario & downtown Vancouver/Victoria have no thermal coal.
And yet Vancouver has no problem shipping Montana/Wyoming coal to Asia via their port. Stealing Yakov Smirnoff’s line “what a country”
Leftwing leadership is no leadership at all.
Leftwing leadership screws up everything it touches. They always do the wrong thing.
coal does not have a best before date. Unless you are talking in geological terms. A hundred years from now when we are still driving IC cars and oil is three hundred dollars a barrel, or more, those coal reserves will there to be converted into fuel, at a profit. Likely using a fully automated process.
The only way oil gets to $300/barrel in the next hundred years, is if Biden’s inflation isn’t contained.
Voters are stupid – maybe a hundred years from now Biden’s head is running the country from inside a specimen jar mounted on top of an android body. (they stacked the Supreme Court in the mid-2030’s so that only Democrat presidents can run for more than 2 terms, or at all).
Coal liquefaction costs much less than $300/bbl. Maybe $100. The same for nat. gas to liquids. You will not see long term $300/bbl oil price, other than inflation or short term price spikes.
Russia is hoping for lots of global warming so their several million square miles of Siberia might become a nicer place to live. It’s the future for Russia, not Eastern Europe.
just imagine Russia today if the 1940s-1970s cooling trend had continued unabated
Actually that’s a pretty ignorant comment if you knew how severe a winter we are currently having in north east Europe.
It started in October.
If the cooling of 1940’s to 70’s had continued, the severe winter would have been even more severe.
It’s early, but it kind of looks to me like we are currently at the beginning of a 1940’s-type cooldown. The global temperatures have dropped by 0.7C recently. If global temperatures dropped another 1.3C, then this would equal the cooling that took place from 1940 to the late 1970’s.
We’ll have to wait and see which way the temperatures go. Up or down? That is the question.
Here’s the U.S. chart (Hansen 1999). You can see the magnitude of the cooling and the warming.
Also note that after the highpoint of the 1930’s, that the temperatures cooled for a little while and then the temperatures heated up into the 1950’s, before the cooling finally settled in and dropped to the lowpoing in the late 1970’s.
The 1950’s kind of remind me of the highpoint in 1998, and cooling followed and then the temperatures jumped back up around 2016 and now the temperatures are starting to fall.
That will not happen and the Russians know it. Their Academy is about the only one not falling for the scam. But apart from that it would be the Chinese who would live there, not the Russians.
makes sense when you think it through
Democrats need to make Putin both rich and scary so they can get the FBI to pretend Putin “owns” Trump
pipelines, coal, the ukraine… they’re just shovelling everything at him
Nurse! Nurse!
One branch of the IEA issued instructions to stop coal and oil development, another published projections that coal consumption was not going down any time soon and another pointed out that we are going to need 4,400 times as much lithium as we are mining at present but there are no plans for the infrastructure required.
Interesting times indeed. Watch developments in Australia where coal power generators are playing chicken with the government by advancing dates of plant-closures in a situation where we have barely enough reliable base load as it is:) Three months out from a national election where both the major parties are committed to suicidal energy policies.
For two years the Energy Realists of Australia have regularly briefed 800+ federal and state political moochers on the reality of the situation but their green minders on staff probably decided the moochers didn’t need to read the mail. This is an incomplete list of the briefing notes – our new website is a work in progress. This work is done by unfunded volunteers as a community service. https://www.riteon.org.au/netzero-casualties/
Power to ya’.
=========
Western Europe, North America and Australia are lead and influenced by knuckle dragging numskulls. We need to wake up and get rid of them.
But they are knuckle dragging numskulls with degrees from Ivy League Universities, therefore, they are “The Elite.”😃
And they have lots of Chicom money in their pockets.
The people may not get what they want but they dam sher git what they d-serve. Whoever the “we” are that you are alluding to are, unfortunately, awake, brainwashed and dedicated to their own demise. Game over for the “we.”
That’s 1 for sane energy policy and economic vitality, and 0 for the insane “saviors of the planet” who hate humanity.
Russia has second largest coal reserves in world, after US. Makes sense to sell to its neighbors India and China, who don’t play the climate game.
China is buying more coal from Russia and less coal from Australia.
Gee, that was predictable.
India signed major arms supply contracts with Russia, that greatly disturbed the US by its overall scope, because it did not leave much for the US and others
The EU will sell less and less of its goods and services to Russia, if it implements more sanctions, including failure-to-implement RE sanctions
Russia doesn’t have relevant amount of money for “goods and services”. Its GDP is below South Korea now. Heading to North Korea level soon if they will start the invasion.
I read this morning of a new tactic to shut down coal in Australia. Billionaires plotting to take over AGL, Australia’s largest energy company, and shut its coal assets. WTF !
The dominance of renewables is inevitable.
I can’t tell if you are being sarcastic or not.
Barry IS NOT being sarcastic, he is a moron. I have seen his comments on other posts.
and yet outside china, everywhere new coal is being cancelled and plant is closing…
Why?
Griff describes the world the way he wants it to be, not the way it is.
King Coal is on the march. The puny efforts of the West to reduce CO2 will be undone by King Coal. Get used to it. You alarmists have lost the game. How long will it be before you alarmists realize it?
But India has recently contracted for 40 mil tonnes of coal from Russia.
What for??
World development will demand energy and coal will be the only reasonable answer. CO2 will be seen as plant food not an existential threat to life on earth. Science will get a divorce from politics and its media.