HEAT WAVES ARE 100% NATURAL – PART 5: HOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONTROL CLIMATE
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Heat waves provide the perfect optics for those who want to push climate alarmism that the world is dramatically overheating. Using rock-soild physics and published peer reviewed evidence, I conclusively show heat waves are all natural. I examine how natural shifts related to El Nino and other natureal oscillations induce wave trains of hot and cold affecting the location and duration of high-pressure systems that cause mild and deadly heatwaves.
A transcript is available at
https://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2022/02/heat-waves-are-100-natural.html
Jim Steele is Director emeritus of San Francisco State University’s Sierra Nevada Field Campus, authored Landscapes and Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism, and proud member of the CO2 Coalition.
Let’s see: record heatwaves in 2021… NW USA/Canada, Sicily, Greece… all setting new temperature records, exceeding existing records by some margin (e.g new record for Europe in Sicily)
6 heatwaves in the USA, record heat in large areas into December… heatwaves in E Europe, across whole Mediterranean, Turkey, Middle East Iran…
record individual temperatures in Siberia and Greenland
Two 40C plus heatwaves at start of 2022 in large areas of S America.
That’s just a quick summary… the last 9 months have seen an exceptional number and scale of heatwaves.
and note:
More than 400 weather stations beat heat records in 2021 | Extreme weather | The Guardian
And these heatwaves are, of course, more likely to have occurred thanks to human caused climate change.
Oh dear. No wonder Griff has such a problem with reality – he reads the Guardian!
I think he’s an intern
It’s easy to claim the “Exceptional number” of heat waves in modern records when historic records have been manipulated to be cooler.
He who controls the historic record controls the narrative
You are what you read.
And now start with comparing record breaking coldwaves.
Following your thoughts they have to be of natural origin.
What’s wrong with your synapses ??
😀
There is something amiss with the “leetle gray-cells” of der grifffffff, oui.
Griff, how long is your record?
His record has a chip in one of the grooves and keeps repeating the same bit of track over and over again.
Holds up Pinkie Finger and proclaims 9″
At least 2 400 cold temperature records broken or tied in the U.S. from February 12 to 16, 2021
https://watchers.news/2021/02/18/2400-cold-temperature-records-broken-or-tied-us-february-2021/
You come with 400 a year, here we have 2400 in less one week.
And there are more over the globe.
But aren’t those caused by global warming also? 🤔🤔
Who cares ?? 😀
Extreme heat is climatic
Extreme cold is meteorological only
Griff
And yet arctic sea ice is at the second highest its been in the last 18 years.
Meaningless yes, not unlike all the nonsense you put up here.
It recently surpassed the maximum extent that was recorded in 1974. It’s been trending down the past several days, but typically its yearly maximum extent occurs around the end of February or early March.
https://cornwallalliance.org/2021/02/record-cold-of-2021-reminds-us-be-wary-of-climate-predictions-and-energy-priorities/
Japan reported 13 deaths and hundreds of hospitalizations in the past week due to the intense snowfall in the country. Residents in Spain were in awe over the record snowfall in their streets. Here in India, Delhi experienced one of its harshest winters in recent memory, with intense cold waves.
Delhi does seem to be experiencing frequent above-average winters recently. Winter of 2019-20 was such. One day below maximum temperature below 10 C. I think after many decades. This winter the lowest maximum has been 12.1 C.
In the US, if you look at temperature records state by state, it is quite clear that they have not all happened since 1980. U.S. state and territory temperature extremes – Wikipedia
I went to the link you provided and didn’t see your graphic. What’s more there was only one extreme temp in the 1940s (Guam), while there were numerous extreme high temps in the 1930s. How come your graphic shows the 1940s to be much hotter than the 1930s?
I put all of the data from the link into Excel some time ago. The x-axis labels are the ending year of the decade, so where it says 1940 is actually the decade of the 30’s. Perhaps not the best way to show it.
In other words, the 1930s had over 3X the extreme temps as the two decades tied for second place.
I would label it with the year starting the decade, so that 1930 through 1939 would be the column labeled 1930. Yea, I know that there was no year 0, but that was 2000 years ago and I don’t care. I care about making the chart easy to understand.
As you mention the start of 2022 and talking about Turkey etc…. 😀
https://saudigazette.com.sa/article/616516
https://menafn.com/1103589676/Cold-wave-grips-Greece-snowfall-disrupts-traffic
https://electroverse.net/sea-freezes-in-greece-arctic-blast-sends-u-s-nat-gas-futures-to-record-highs-covid-narrative-crumbling/
Frozen sea in Mediterranean NW Greece
I must say that griff is very effective. If you assume that griff is Anthony Watts or Charles Rotter assuming a persona of a clueless tool so that many good arguments are presented countering the nonsense.
But if griff is a real human, well, not so much.
I have suspected for years that Griff might be a sceptic who likes to propound the alarmist viewpoint just to show how ridiculous it is.
Lol, I can picture Anthony hitting himself in the head with a hammer just to get the right feel then starting to type is Griff troll pieces.
Same about Simon. If Simon is real then he is real human 💩
Those are all rare weather events, this is not climate.
This is not climate or climate change either, it is weather:
https://greekreporter.com/2022/01/24/greek-islands-snow/
Yeah, it’s just weather, Griff.
You can make up a similar list next year, too. No doubt there will be plenty of extreme weather events, just like there always are.
Clearly, you did not watch the video.
griff rarely reads past the headlines. Quite a few times he has cited an article in which the headline appears to support him, but the body of the article doesn’t.
I think you missed a spot on your list, griff.
Records are being set at the Winter Olympics in Beijing. It must be global warming.
You apparently don’t realize that there is no such thing that has ever been observed as a world wide heat wave. All heat waves are local to regional, covering but the tiniest slice of the world’s surface, and are completely balanced out by cold waves elsewhere on the planet at the same time.
It is nonsense to say as you do “there were X number of heat waves this year” when there had to be at least the same number of cold waves at the very same time.
Apparently you failed your high school physics classes, or your college level thermodynamics course. If a given place heats up by 10 deg C, it is obvious that the entire planet could not possibly have heated up by 10 deg C at the same time. Not even the most insane RCP models project that occurrence.
Math is racist.
Griff
this may shock you, for the rest of us it’s no surprise.
The UK requires significant wind capacity growth in order to reach challenging 2030 & 2035 decarbonisation targets. This renewable rollout comes with challenges however, with the grid already required to cope with periods of wind generation above 14 GW, and below 1 GW. Low wind events (which are often synchronised across NW Europe) have been driving prices upwards in an already high price environment, with only 3 GW of average wind generation coinciding with a NatGrid electricity capacity market notice called on 24th Jan (the shaded grey area on the chart) and a £110/MWh day on day increase in DA prices.
https://timera-energy.com/wind-intermittency-driving-requirement-for-uk-flexibility/
“of course”
really?
Lie spewing liar spewing lies. Why? It is a lie spewing liar, thats why.
Even if you accept that garbage griff and feel terribly guilted … What are you going to do about it?
You already know emission control is never going to fly so what is your plan B?
The best you have come up with so far is sending LED lights to Africa because that is going to make their lives so much better.
Those are meaningless numbers without context of the past history or percentages. It is difficult to know whether you are logic challenged or willfully lying to advance your agenda.
You assume, without conclusive proof, that “human caused climate change” is real. Even if humans contribute, the proportion of contribution is critical to establish the influence on heat waves.
“There are none so blind as those who will not see.”
Embrace the power of and.
Sicily is hotter than the rest of Europe.
Stop the presses, griff has discovered something never before seen in the annals of European fantasy.
Given the growth of the cities in Europe, the fact that they occasionally hit new records is not remarkable. Beyond that, we are still warming up from the Little Ice Age, so it’s hardly surprising that temperatures are a smidge warmer than they were 50 years ago. Once again, it has nothing to do with CO2.
There are 10’s of thousands of recording stations all over the world. The fact that a few of them set record highs or lows each year is once again, nothing unusual.
There used to be a great site called Ice age now. Every day or week it would flag up new cold records broken.
I’m betting the 150- 200 year drought in the US, a thousand years ago, beats today’s heatwaves in the US. Or when the Rhine, Loire and Seine rivers completely dried up back in the MWP.
Richard:
The MWP heating was because of a lack of volcanic eruptions and their cooling SO2 aerosol emissions. Only 31 eruptions in 300 years!
Through Net-Zero we are trying to eliminate the CO2 (and the SO2) from the burning of fossil fuels, so if there is ever a volcanic “drought” again (more than 3-5 years between at least VEI4 eruptions), temperatures will begin RISING
What caused the Roman, Egyptian and the Minoan warm periods?
What caused the Holocene Optimum that lasted at least 5000 years?
Undoubtedly for exactly the same reason–a dearth of large volcanic eruptions.
Recall that the Roman Warm period ended with the VEI6+ eruption of Llopango in 450 A.D, a Plinian eruption of Pelee the same year, and a VEI5 .eruption of Vesuvius in 472
The record in Sicily has never been confirmed by the WMO.
In my state, we just had 2 records broken on consecutive dates, for record snowfall. In the past decade, or so, there have been many cold records for- date broken, including the statewide all time cold record.
If If we just started keeping records one year ago, then every day would be a record- setting day.
If we had kept records for 2000 years, then there would hardly ever be a record broken.
What say you?
There are almost no records that extend into, much less past the Little Ice Age. With very few (perhaps no) exceptions, all temperature records occur during the time when the Earth is warming up from the Little Ice Age, which is still continuing.
The Central England Instrumental Temperatures data set extends from 1659 to the present, which includes more than a third of the LIA.
griff ? no “good grief”
See Electroverse.com Record cold the world over. Someone’s mistaken or it could be record cold and high temperatures are just normal.
Griff
As the Scientologists admit, it was cooler in 2021, so math tells you (or at least it tells me and others of the brain cell brigade) that if there were the heat waves you refer to them there must have been even colder cold waves, right?
No hottest year ever?
I suggest you consult Tony Heller, and brush up your history. You are clearly mis-informed.
Ah from Pravda on Thames. Red hot info.
Guess what Griff: Heat waves happen every your and hundreds of temperature records, hot and cold, are broken every year around the globe.
But by claiming what is happening today is unprecedented (it is not), alarmists are hiding the decline in severe weather over the last century. See Tony Heller’s post with actual data:
https://realclimatescience.com/hiding-the-decline-in-extreme-weather/
Forget it,this bloke Griff is a nutter!
Jim,
Thanks for the reference to Garrett (1992).
Garrett, C.W., 1992. On global climate change, carbon dioxide, and fossil fuel combustion. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, 18(5), pp.369-407.
According to our resident expert, griff…..
“Let’s see: record heatwaves in 2021… NW USA/Canada, Sicily, Greece… all setting new temperature records, exceeding existing records by some margin “
If we translate it back into the Queen’s English
“Let’s see: record heatwaves in 2021… NW USA/Canada, Sicily, Greece… all nothing new, really. Just a load of hype.
Yes, climate is natural, everything climate does is natural and normal. Climate changes, constantly, and that is totally natural. Humans are not causing it and cannot stop it.
BTW, humans too are natural 😀 😀
So, what humans do is natural, isn’t it ? 😀
Some of us are, can’t speak for Griff
Excellent article on Yale 360 Environment
It’s Not Just Climate: Are We Ignoring Other Causes of Disasters?
https://e360.yale.edu/features/its-not-just-climate-are-we-ignoring-other-causes-of-disasters
“Overlooks the poor policy and planning”
In plan English “it’s not my fault, it’s someone else’s fault”
For example, much has been made of recent floods in England, that were caused by a lack of maintenance in the flood control systems.
Yeah, but climate change is something we can’t do anything about.
All one has to do is follow the jet stream to know where storms and dry periods are separated. In the Northern hemisphere, in the summer, when a ‘ridge’ occurs, it sucks warm/hot air from the direction of the equator to the ridge. The longer that ridge lasts, the warmer it gets. Ridges get ‘stuck’ when blocking lows prevent them from moving. Just the opposite of the same location in winter, when polar air drops down through troughs and can persist when blocked.
When we hit 114F in Beaverton last year, it was a record, by 7F. It had absolutely nothing to do with climate, which is 30 years of weather, averaged out. It was a huge, stable ridge that brought hot air from the US Southwest up here. The ‘ridge’ was clear above Canada. Co2? Not so much. No one in their right mind suggests that Co2 affects weather. I suggest it does absolutely nothing.
OK, so Water (or the lack of it) and Convection create weather >> Climate
so far so good
Re: Circulations, Hadley Cells etc etc
Q: Is it true that where Sahara is now was, 6,000+ years ago, a rainforest/jungle with rivers and lakes. i.e lots of water
If= True, what became of the rising and falling air? What happened to that water contained in that jungle when the sun shone on it?
IOW: The maintenance of Sahara is explained, but not its creation.
(Same argument applies to all large deserts)
Maybe we wanna be careful here, because what’s being described is a Tipping Point – what ‘tipped’ the forest into desert?
Extra careful because, as explained, they are self-maintaining systems.
Thus begging the question, how did any greenery ever get started here on Planet Earth?
Thanks to Griffles for his input and why is it not valid?
Because what he’s pointing out is the creation of desert (but doesn’t seem to realise as much) and as Uncle Jim is telling us here, cities are deserts.
Next question: What about the, annually extra, 60 million new people – where are they living, what shelters do they build & out of what and what are they eating?
Esp, do they live in cities, do they use chainsaws, ploughs and goats to get their food because if they do, they are creating desert.
And as Uncle Jim tells us, once you’ve made one, it does not spontaneously revert to forest.
LIttle Nephew Peta,
Please get your facts. straight. The Sahara was never a “jungle” but a lush grassland during the Holocene Optimum. It was desert during the ice age and since about. 6000 years ago has been reverting to bigger and bigger desert in parallel with the cooling global temperatures of the Neo-glaciation.
All this was covered a short while ago in HOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONTROL CLIMATE PART 2: ITCZ, RAINFORESTS AND DESERTS
“Q: Is it true that where Sahara is now was, 6,000+ years ago, a rainforest/jungle with rivers and lakes.”
AFAK the Sahara was never in reasonably recent times a rainforest. At best it was savanna.
At least it was green, crocodiles lived in much more water that has been there in the warmer times. Crocos like it wet / humid as we all know.
“The situation was very different ten thousand years ago. At that moment the Sahara, now the largest non-polar desert on earth, was a savannah crossed by networks of rivers. Species such as hippopotamus, elephant and giraffe lived near the shores of mega lakes. Throughout the desert, archaeologists and palaeontologists have documented skeletons of crocodiles in areas as unlikely as Algeria, Libya and northern Mali, proving that crocodiles roamed in a greener Sahara thousands of years ago.”
https://blog.britishmuseum.org/sharp-of-teeth-crocodiles-in-the-ancient-sahara/
The Sahara was never a rainforest/jungle.
It was however a well watered savanah.
Actually deserts can and do revert to first grassland and then to forests, once the rains return.
I made one mistake by using the first record temperature at Lytton BC of 45.5 on June 27th. Over the next few days temperatures continued to rise in Lytton reaching 49.6C on june 29th 2021. Local temperatures nearby were 2 to 5 degrees lower.
that should have read 2 to 5 degrees lower
(Fixed) SUNMOD
From 1900:
“Atmospheric Radiation” by Frank W. Very
Pages 125 and 126
“The absorbent action of carbon dioxide and the permanent gases is almost invariable; but the absorption bands of aqueous vapour are much stronger in the summer than in winter, and the selective scattering of short waves also increases in summer. One result of this variation is that the direct rays of the midday sun, received upon a a normal surface, are more powerful in winter than in summer, in spite of the greater distance traversed by the sunbeam through the air in winter.”
“The direct effect of the sun’s rays upon a normal surface is less in the tropics than in temperate regions, and less at sea level than upon a mountain top, owing to the difference in the aqueous component of the air; and the ability of the solar radiation to maintain a high temperature in the torrid zone or at sea level is due to the accumulation of the thermal energy imparted to the Earth’s surface by reason of the retention of the escaping radiation from that surface by a moist and highly absorbent atmosphere rather than to the direct power of the sunbeam.”
“As long as the mantle of water vapour remains unbroken, thermal fluctuations are kept within narrow limits. Storms may make inroads upon the continuity of this aqueous atmospheric envelope, but evaporation of moisture restores the rents.”
“The gradual accumulation of moisture in higher and higher atmospheric layers during the summer, clothes the temperate regions with so deep a protective covering of moist air, that summer conditions are prolonged in the autumn to a time which is astronomically the correlative of late winter. The absence of this deep protective layer, whose formation can only be effected gradually, permits late frosts in spring, long after the sun has resumed his ascendency.”
“…in addition to the large specific heat and mobility of water, conducing to the slowness of oceanic temperature changes; but more important as a retainer of oceanic heat is the extension of the great band (6,3 microns) to greater wave-lengths in the absorption of the layer of air nearly saturated with moisture, which always hangs over the water.”
“It appears certain that on our Earth surface temperatures lower than -73ºC., or 200ºK. can not occur, possibly because of the almost total absorption by the atmosphere of all radiations beyond 13 microns.
…the position of the normal maximum in the energy-curve for the lowest arctic temperature very nearly coincides with the great absorption band of carbon dioxide.”
https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/Atmospheric_Radiation/a8VT9eizfNsC?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover
Jim’s transcript: “Climate crises narratives ignore high pressure system dynamics of
1) clearer skies and increased solar heating “
On this point I agree with Jim Steele. I spent the last two years working with TEMIS UVI and Ozone data to find the recent heat waves resulted from long-duration cloudlessness due to lack of equatorial Pacific evaporation. From my two AGU posters on the subject, the second image below shows the dangerous UVI levels where heatwaves and heat deaths occurred last year in the NW US and parts of Canada resulting from the state of cloudlessness (and corresponding high pressure).
This situation was caused by the solar minimum’s tropical cooling effect.
Nearly all of the slight year-to-year increases in emission rates of CO2 and methane are also natural.
The heatwaves of 2003 and 2018 had the same driver type as the heatwaves of 1976, 1949, and 1934. The 2006 heatwave had the same driver type as in 1936 (US), and the major European heatwave of 1540, which was also the greatest recorded drought year in Ethiopia. They were all discretely solar driven, without which they would not have existed.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vQemMt_PNwwBKNOS7GSP7gbWDmcDBJ80UJzkqDIQ75_Sctjn89VoM5MIYHQWHkpn88cMQXkKjXznM-u/pub
Ulrich Lyons:
they all have one thing in common: all were caused by reduced levels of SO2 aerosols circulating in the atmosphere,
I don’t see the connection, but interestingly the name Burl means “knotty wood” or “tuft of wool”.
The Santa Ana’s are blowing here in LA and the news anchors and papers are freaking out…
Okay, I like the research and proposed theory. But the introduction about statistics countering land based US heatwave trend is not needed. This is not really the argument made by the “we’re all going to burn” climatologists. Modern heatwave trends are reported for coastal areas of Northern America, Northeast and Central Eurasia, and Southern Australia. E.g. as laid out in Nature: Increasing trends in regional heatwaves. So if comments are in need to be made, that’s the specific target you want.
Great stuff in the article itself. Thanks!
Heatwaves are 100% natural and 100% renewable energy.
Jim Steele is correct. The usual climate change hysterics made a big deal out of the Pacific Northwest heatwave in late June of last year and blamed it on human CO2 emissions. The hysteria started immediately following the record setting heat.
I wrote up that event and its causes and like all other heat waves, it was driven by natural high pressure blocking that was no more extreme than any other heat wave scenario on the west coast of the USA. But the timing did make a significant difference having occurred just past the summer solstice and highest sun angle. Records for many of the Northwest locations had occurred later in the summer rather than in late June:
Solar heat – not CO2 – caused the June 2021 heatwave – edberry.com
Great article, Jim. Many great points.
Here is a graph from the USCRN designed to be a more reliable network of weather stations for understanding climate change. Certainly no accelerating trend in average temperature. If the average temperature is the driver of extremes as alarmist argue, then there should be increasingly fewer extremes since 2016
Jim Steele is part of the problem when he speaks over his areas of expertise. His rock solid science is and has been missing critical science.
I was asked to co-present with Al Gore at GM Place in Vancouver. The BC Premier would introduce us to the 1000s at the stadium. I had to refuse based on global warming by man being very real but heat trapping gases(GHG) heating the atmosphere from the atmosphere down defies thermal dynamics. Have you ever gone for a ride in a cold air balloon? The balloon would never leave the ground.
Buildings are an intricately designed engineered product, not a hobby where people paint the building any color they want
Jim is from California and what he should do is put on his bathing suit to sit on a shingled or asphalt roof. I would advise having an ambulance on standby so they can treat his severe burns and transport him to a hospital.
Sciences compliment each other, they don’t compete. I have a quadruple science background as it relates to atoms and molecules don’t speak over my expertise. It took 6 years of vetting by health education admin before I was asked to submit a lecture for Continuing Medical Education credits. Medical professionals require ongoing education credits. It took another 7 years before health education admin added a title where I am chief of an international science advisory board. That board is 14,301 licensed health and consulting professionals that put on accredited medical education programs internationally. To date the accredited medical education is applicable to all health professionals in Canada and the USA. It will go global this year.
Our team imaged buildings in 7 provinces and 26 states with the same results. The same solar radiation(EMFS) that burns skin was interacting with absorbent exterior finishes of buildings. As a building engineering and electrical professional, it was alarming to see the exteriors of buildings generating heat close to boiling temperature. Buildings designed and insulated for a max of 35 deg. C were grossly exceeding design temperatures. 100 deg. C is boiling temp and some buildings were over 90 deg. C.
Once heat is generated, it can not be destroyed. Heat transfers and you have 90 deg. C radiating atmospherically as well as transferring inside buildings. Here is a link to 2 time-lapsed infrared videos showing solar impact right after sunrise. The second video is a 14 hour time-lapsed IR video from inside a building. Ideally there shouldn’t be differences to see.
Lumber isn’t a good conductor but it holds the heat for a long time. The inside of the building is actually heated by the framing members. That is the reason homes stay hot late into the night depending where you live.
Air conditioning is a nice name but it is liking calling Oxy medicine. Air conditioning is in FACT refrigeration using 1000s of watts per hour responding to symptoms of solar radiation impact. The building you will see in the time-lapsed video has a small AC unit that uses 3450 watts per hour. Think of 34 – 100 watt light bulbs running all day or night. Think of all the buildings and utilities are trying to meet the massive demand when it is a absolute waste. Using low-e exterior finishes or shade will eliminate the energy waste and literally every province, state and country could meet and exceed GHG reduction expectations.
https://youtu.be/EA3py3us5VM
Very creepy that you want me to put on a bathing suit, and then insult me. And awfully egotistical to simply tout yourself, without ever providing one single accurate criticism of the argument made in my video
I did an internet search for “Adjunct Professor Curtis Bennett” and based on what I read, came to the conclusion that he is not a real person.
He appears to be a real person, but the ‘Professor’ may well not be from any accredited institute of learning. He appears to be selling something called ‘energy medicine’ – so a quack/snake-oil salesman.
He may be a real person. In one of his blogs he claims to be an electrician with a Canadian red seal certificate. A book he is selling on line has “Professor Curtis Bennett” as author.
So what is your point “professor”? I don’t see that you’ve made one, but only attempted to denigrate Jim Steele.
The fact you volunteered that you were asked to co-present with Algore may speak volumes about what you really understand about GHG’s which wouldn’t be much.
You blather on about what you do that makes you some sort of climate expert but you didn’t state what degrees you hold and from where. Care to elaborate rather than insult?
“So what is your point “professor”? I don’t see that you’ve made one, but only attempted to denigrate Jim Steele.”
That was my impression, too.
And your point is? Did you perhaps intend this for LinkedIn and post in the wrong place?
I don’t know that having a “quadruple science background” has done anything for your writing ability.
His name has a link to something called thermoguy.com.
So I suspect his point is that he wants us all to go to his site and buy stuff from him.
Those who can, do;
Those who can’t, teach;
Those who can’t teach – become administrators.
“I am chief of an international science. . . . . ”
Devising bigger and better checklists.
Checklists are a modern day curse.
Any checklist with more than about half a dozen items is of low, or no, value.
Professor, your expertise in building is doubtless considerable . . . . But watts per hour seems to be a rate of change of power (developed, applied, whatever).
Auto
So, when it’s 100F outside, all you need to do to keep a building cool is to use low e materials?
Everything that happens on earth is natural, including anything humans do.
Why people think that the results of human behavior are un-natural and label it as such is beyond me. I have never heard a valid explanation of that thinking.
Agree doonman.
Nature, like energy, fills a void. All living things exploit an opportunity to survive and thrive in one way or another.
The 2019 European summer heatwaves were completely dependent on very negative North Atlantic Oscillation conditions, giving a meridional (wavy) jet stream pattern. Such brief Saharan plumes cannot occur with positive NAO conditions with a zonal jet stream pattern, which rules out any influence from rising CO2 forcing. Predictably, these Saharan plumes are more common during centennial solar minima, daily CET reveals several similar brief summer heat events during the 1880-1890’s centennial solar minimum.
To supplement Jim’s essay, here is the 2022 update of heatwaves in Australia’s 6 State capital cities. The aim was to produce evidence that it is WRONG to say that these cities have heatwaves that are getting longer, hotter and more frequent. (That is the official line, repeated over and over although it is wrong.)
I have calculated using official BOM Tmax numbers for every day, finding for each year the hottest groups over 1, 3, 5 and 10 consecutive days. I have graphed the average of these intervals against the year they happened. I have used both raw data (CDO) and the latest BOM adjusted data (ACORN-SAT version 2.2 released December 2021).
FINDINGS. There is so little variation in the temperatures that you can see any trend you want, but basically there is near-zero evidence of any pattern relatable to climate change (whatever version of climate change tickles your fancy).
Run your eyes over the 96 graphs I show, to see if you can find a climate change signature.
Those “experts” who write dire predictions, like Australia’s Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick who makes a living flogging this dead horse, have to explain their nuanced work with strange definitions of heatwaves, when it does not work for the Australian cities housing some 70% of our population. No need to build special hospitals for the future, because nothing real is happening, using this simple treatment of the BOM official figures.
Readers should do it for your home towns. It is elementary easy Excel. Geoff S.
………………………………..
http://www.geoffstuff.com/sixcity2022.xlsx
Heatwaves enjoy them while they last. This happened in the PNW this past summer. When a dome of high pressure sits atop of you don’t fret. It could be much worst if it was the opposite, a dome of cold arctic air. I will take warmth over cold any day. Just think of the truckers in Ottawa. This is weather, a weather pattern and nothing more. Instead of complaining, adapt and overcome.
Heatwaves are actually mostly not getting much worse. This is because temperature variance has been mostly decreasing while global temperature has been increasing. Climate activists have been wrongly making claims of temperature variance, jet stream instability & waviness, and severe winter weather getting worse. Only in recent years, climate activists have mostly quietly walked away from their false claim of tornadoes getting worse. There is still the matter that manmade global warming is for real, and it threatens maintaining or even (under debate by how much or how little) accelerating the sea level rise that the recovery from the Little Ice Age started. The main issue I see is threat of coastal cities and coastal coast-related industrial facilities (such as ports) having to move uphill, which would cost lots of terabucks.
I think it’s time to flip the script on this claim that citizens that disagree with CAGW are seditious. Realists should form a class action suit to sue the global warming/climate change supporters with sedition. Vet everything out in a court of law in front of a jury. I think it will be the trial of the century and the truth will prevail because the whole CAGW hypothesis is founded on junk science. CO2 is not an evil pollutant but rather a giver of life to our carbon based existence.