Air Conditioners on apartment walls. Jason Kuffer from East Harlem, USA [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Climate Study: Air Conditioning Will Outstrip Grid Supply by 2030

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

According to the AGU, a massive surge in demand for air conditioning could overload the grid in the next decade.

US household air conditioning use could exceed electric capacity in next decade due to climate change

by  American Geophysical Union

Climate change will drive an increase in summer air conditioning use in the United States likely to cause prolonged blackouts during peak summer heat if states do not expand capacity or improve efficiency, according to a new study of household-level demand.

The study projected summertime usage as global temperature rises 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) or 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, finding demand in the United States overall could rise 8% at the lower and 13% at the higher threshold. The new study was published in Earth’s Future, AGU’s journal for interdisciplinary research on the past, present and future of our planet and its inhabitants.

Human emissions have put the global climate on a trajectory to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the early 2030s, the IPCC reported in its 2021 assessment. Without significant mitigation, global temperatures will likely exceed the 2.0-degree-Celsius threshold by the end of the century. 

Technological improvements in the efficiency of home air conditioning appliances could supply the additional cooling needed to achieve current comfort levels after 2.0 degrees global temperature rise without increased demand for electricity, the new study found. Increased efficiency of 1% to 8% would be required, depending on existing state standards and the expected demand increase, with Arkansas, Louisiana and Oklahoma on the high end.

“It’s a pretty clear warning to all of us that we can’t keep doing what we are doing or our energy system will break down in the next few decades, simply because of the summertime air conditioning,” said Susanne Benz, a geographer and climate scientist at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, who was not involved in the new study. 

Read more: https://phys.org/news/2022-02-household-air-conditioning-electric-capacity.html

The abstract of the study;

Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming Climate

Renee ObringerRoshanak NateghiDebora Maia-SilvaSayanti MukherjeeVineeth CRDouglas Brent McRobertsRohini Kumar

First published: 29 December

Abstract

Soaring temperatures and increased occurrence of heatwaves have drastically increased air-conditioning demand, a trend that will likely continue into the future. Yet, the impact of anthropogenic warming on household air conditioning is largely unaccounted for in the operation and planning of energy grids. Here, by leveraging the state-of-the-art in machine learning and climate model projections, we find substantial increases in future residential air conditioning demand across the U.S.—up to 8% with a range of 5%–8.5% (13% with a range of 11%–15%) after anthropogenic warming of 1.5°C (2.0°C) in global mean temperature. To offset this climate-induced demand, an increase in the efficiency of air conditioners by as much as 8% (±4.5%) compared to current levels is needed; without this daunting technological effort, we estimate that some states will face supply inadequacies of up to 75 million “household-days” (i.e., nearly half a month per average current household) without air conditioning in a 2.0°C warmer world. In the absence of effective climate mitigation and technological adaptation strategies, the U.S. will face substantial increases in air conditioning demand and, in the event of supply inadequacies, there is increased risk of leaving millions without access to space cooling during extreme temperatures.

Read more: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021EF002434

Naturally the study uses RCP 8.5.

I think there will be a surge in energy use, which might create serious pressure on the grid. Not because temperatures will suddenly soar to ridiculous extremes, but because the AI / home robot / technology revolution will send our energy demand through the roof.

Either way, one thing for sure – luxury virtue signalling non solutions like renewables have no place in a world of skyrocketing demand for reliable energy.

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Right-Handed Shark
February 4, 2022 10:08 am

The way it’s going in the UK, charging my shaver could overload the grid in 2030.

Last edited 7 months ago by Right-Handed Shark
Bill Powers
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
February 4, 2022 10:45 am

R-H. If we simply turn off all those computers, modeling climate, you would have enough energy to charge you razor. Then, clean shaven, we could go to work dismantling the massively subsidized EV Vehicle market. Voila now we save your telly, toaster, fridge and your microwave. We could even throw in a dishwasher for good measure.

roaddog
Reply to  Bill Powers
February 4, 2022 12:33 pm

And if we quit subsidizing “scientists” to lie to us, we’d likely balance the budget as well. Last I looked the “middle of the road” climate model (or, more accurately, fantasy) over projected warming by 500 to 600%.

Bryan A
Reply to  roaddog
February 4, 2022 2:09 pm

Considering that most houses already have some form of Electric A/C (window unit or Central A/C) the only real additional demand will come from New Developments. A/C will have little impact on Grid Supply in the next 1/4 century. Government mandates though WILL over-tax the grid with mandated…
Electric Heating
Electric Cooking
Electric Water Heaters
Electric Vehicles
Electric Busses
Electric Trains
Electric Airplanes
Electric Trucks
And Electric Boats
This will cause a minimum 300% increase in Grid Demand and likely more than a 500% – 1000% increase without any of the minimal increase in A/C loads factored in for the DRASTIC 0.2C temp increase likely by 2030.

Bryan A
Reply to  roaddog
February 4, 2022 5:41 pm

Considering that most buildings currently have air conditioning, either window mounted, Central Air or Swamp Coolers, any appreciable Air Conditioning load increase would need to come from New construction. To have an affect on Grid Capacity from AC loading it would require a minimum 50% increase in Air Conditioned building construction as AC units are far more efficient today than they were 20 years ago.
What will have a negative effect on Grid Capacity is the electrification of all current non electric energy requirements like
Heating
Cooking
Hot Water
Autos
Busses
Trucks
Shipping
Airlines
Taking natural gas, gasoline and diesel energy out of service will require more than 1000% increase in Grid Capacity by 2030. Any potential Air Conditioning load increases are meaningless compared to the demands of government mandated electrification

Bryan A
Reply to  Bryan A
February 4, 2022 8:44 pm

Apologies for the nearly duplicated post BUT the first one vanished into moderation 5 hours ago

whiten
Reply to  roaddog
February 5, 2022 2:21 am

Let me correct the story that you have being sold;

Last I looked the “middle of the road” climate model (or, more accurately, fantasy) over predict warming by 500 to 600%.”
(assuming that by “climate model” you mean GCM simulations)

Warning: GCMs do not do predictions of climate.

When it comes to GCM results, these are projections, projections of optimal thermal swing of the atmosphere in correlation with the optimal CO2 atmospheric concentration swing.

So in line with this particular given explanation of GCM projections, the story line shall be described as something like;

Last I looked the “middle of the road” and any other climate model (or, more accurately, the GCMs results) down project the optimal climatic warming by
300 to 400%.”
(and also over project the optimal CO2 atmospheric concentration variation
by ~200%)

According to paleo climate data, the optimal climatic warming stands at 8-12C.
And
The optimal CO2 atmospheric concentration variation stands at ~100ppm.

cheers

Vuk
Reply to  Bill Powers
February 4, 2022 12:35 pm

There is bit of concern about all those EVs at No.11 Drowning (s/c) Street. Apparently 25% of all newly sold cars in the UK have a charging plug/socket, and such are free of the road tax charges, depriving Her Majesty’s treasury of many millions of pounds, soon to grow into billions.

Reply to  Vuk
February 4, 2022 1:53 pm

Not a problem…it’s all good…the Great Green UK Experiment is for the World.

RLu
Reply to  Vuk
February 4, 2022 10:41 pm

No problem.
That’s what Autobahn Maut and GPS milage registration is for. As soon as EVs become affordable to plebs, toll will be implemented to exploit the new tax resourse.

2hotel9
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
February 4, 2022 7:38 pm

Pretty sure you overloaded the grid just by posting this comment. 😉

bill Johnston
February 4, 2022 10:10 am

“state-of-the-art machine learning and climate model projections”. So does that make everything official now?

Robert B
Reply to  bill Johnston
February 4, 2022 11:02 am

“Human emissions have put the global climate on a trajectory to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the early 2030s, the IPCC reported in its 2021 assessment. Without significant mitigation, global temperatures will likely exceed the 2.0-degree-Celsius threshold by the end of the century. ”

It’s a over a degree, according to GISS LOTI about 1.2 since the late 19th C. If it warms 0.3°C per decade, it will be well over 4 by the end of the century.

Why does it read as if scribbled during a liquid lunch with a brief to provide “scientific proof” that climate change is the bogey man when climate change policies screw up the grid?

Mr.
Reply to  Robert B
February 4, 2022 11:37 am

As I understand it, the world is claimed to have warmed ~ 1C from the industrial revolution up to about the 1950s.

So, in terms of extra aircon required since the 1950s (when hardly anyone had aircon), we’re only going to have to install enough to handle 0.5C extra temp.

(That’s my take on this, and why I’m not mothballing my aircon)

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Mr.
February 4, 2022 4:45 pm

The warmest point in the satellite era is 2016, whose highest temperature was supposedly 1.1C above the baseline.

The current temperatures are 0.7C cooler than 2016. So that nasty 1.5C above the baseline, alarmist tipping point is getting farther away, not closer.

comment image

Last edited 7 months ago by Tom Abbott
Dave
Reply to  Mr.
February 4, 2022 5:22 pm

or allow the indoor temp to increase 0.5C. I suspect we could learn to adjust to that, though it might be simpler to build a few nuclear power plants.

roaddog
Reply to  Robert B
February 4, 2022 11:40 am

I believe the 1.5 was drawn from a hat. The important media message is that “We’re all going to die.”

Graemethecat
Reply to  roaddog
February 4, 2022 11:45 pm

The real message was, “Give us all your money”.

Joao Martins
Reply to  bill Johnston
February 4, 2022 12:24 pm

Seems so. It looks like settled science.

roaddog
Reply to  bill Johnston
February 4, 2022 12:34 pm

Lipstick on a pig.

roaddog
Reply to  bill Johnston
February 4, 2022 1:18 pm

Garbage-in, garbage-out.

What’s the current turn of phrase surrounding the Covid frenzy and the OmyGod variant, mass psychosis formation?

All the old saws apply.

Ian Magness
February 4, 2022 10:11 am

Yep, here in Britain the temperature could fall and we would still be chronically, pathetically short of grid energy due to Net Zero policies. Why? Under Ner Zero, the electrification of cars and household heating will lead to a 5 to 10 times increase in domestic electricity use (certainly by 2050), contemporaneous with the removal of all but intermittent renewables and a sliver of nuclear as power sources. Oh and the odd interconnector from Europe on the rare occasions that they can spare the juice. Just where the hell do they think all this electricity is going to come from? The maths is so bad that you couldn’t make it up – but the government ploughs on regardless, with “more renewables needed” the battle cry to avoid power cuts.
Beam me up Scotty!

Perry Smith
Reply to  Ian Magness
February 4, 2022 12:31 pm

“Beam me up Scotty! No sign of intelligent life down here.”
FIFY

Insufficiently Sensitive
February 4, 2022 10:12 am

In the next DECADE??

With temps creeping up at 1.5 degrees C per 120 years, per NOAA? This headline is hogwash.

Duane
Reply to  Insufficiently Sensitive
February 4, 2022 11:06 am

From 1850 to 2032 is 182 years, not 120 yrs.

Nobody in a non-laboratory setting can measure atmospheric temperatures to such a precision level … ie, to 8 thousandths of a deg C per year, or 8 hundredths of a degree C per decade.

roaddog
Reply to  Duane
February 4, 2022 12:44 pm

Duane, I have a question for you. I very much believe the homogenization of the temperature of the entire planet to a single number is, in a practical sense nonsensical. Have I got hold of anything of substance there? Much appreciated.

Jim Gorman
Reply to  roaddog
February 4, 2022 12:53 pm

Let’s put it this way. If you measured every Clydesdale horse to the nearest inch and every Shetland pony to the nearest inch and then converted their growth rates to anomalies and then averaged them, exactly what would you make of the mean?

RED EX
Reply to  Jim Gorman
February 4, 2022 1:15 pm

It would either be a Shetsdale or a Clydeland.
An very hairy average sized horse with big strong legs.

Bryan A
Reply to  RED EX
February 4, 2022 2:14 pm

It would be a Shite-load

roaddog
Reply to  Jim Gorman
February 5, 2022 2:55 pm

I do so badly want a pony. I’ll be training him to pull a cart, quite useful once the Biden destruction of the energy supply chain is complete.

Jim Gorman
Reply to  roaddog
February 8, 2022 8:14 am

Get a donkey instead.

MAL
Reply to  Duane
February 4, 2022 5:08 pm

Nobody in a non-laboratory setting can measure atmospheric temperatures to such a precision level” I also know it very hard to achieve that kind of precision. To bad the rest of the world does not.

Graemethecat
Reply to  Duane
February 4, 2022 11:48 pm

Climate “Science” is performed exclusively on computers by people with no training in Physical Sciences or Engineering.

TonyG
Reply to  Insufficiently Sensitive
February 6, 2022 9:33 am

“This headline is hogwash.”

Doesn’t matter. It has achieved its desired goal. Now people will be screaming about this for years.

Bruce Cobb
February 4, 2022 10:29 am

Total crap. The grid is in no danger from “climate change”. It is, however, in danger from climate change hysteria and the idiotic energy policies resulting from that.

jeffery p
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 4, 2022 12:53 pm

I’ve always believed the most dangerous people are the ones trying to save us. No, I don’t mean the Jehovah’s witness at your door is dangerous. But people whose identity rests upon a crusade to save the world are capable of anything.

Rocketscientist
Reply to  jeffery p
February 4, 2022 12:59 pm

But people whose identity rests upon a crusade to save the world are capable of anything.”

Rarely anything good.

Dave
February 4, 2022 10:39 am

Nonsense, of course, and even if there was any validity to it, wouldn’t the increase in home A/C due to people working out of the house be offset by the empty offices that don’t have to be cooled?

jeffery p
Reply to  Dave
February 4, 2022 12:56 pm

And less heat from ICE vehicles. And less need for more asphalt or concrete roads and parking lots (that’s American for car park).

roaddog
Reply to  Dave
February 4, 2022 1:00 pm

Dave, that brings to mind something we haven’t touched on in these comments, which is the new breed of programmable thermostats. Certainly, when properly programmed they should reduce energy consumption.

Mother got a new oil-burning furnace last Friday, to replace a beast that had trudged honorably along for 60 years. I don’t think I’m far out on a limb suspecting the new unit will be more efficient than its predecessor. Every day replacements and upgrades like that occur all across the First World, but modeling it would probably approach the complexity of factoring the influence of clouds into climate models. LOL

Swinging a much broader brush, I find it hard to take seriously major corporations that have climbed onto the Climate Nutter bandwagon with all 4 feet (standard equipment on all donkeys) but maintain whole fleets of 20 to 50 story office buildings where all floors are completely illuminated 24/7.

MAL
Reply to  roaddog
February 4, 2022 5:14 pm

Funny here in Arizona every furnace I replaced was going to be cheaper to run that the Freon 12 models and the Freon free models after that. Not true, each model consumes more. Getting the last once of energy out of fuel works on heating, using less efficient coolants for air conditioning does not. Global warm due to CO2 is a farce, so was Freon causing the Ozone hole. All are just methods to fleece the working man.

MarkW
February 4, 2022 10:43 am

Even the IPCC is only claiming about 0.17C per decade. Now these guys are claiming that we are going to see 1.5 to 2C in just 8 years?

If you are going to lie, why not claim temperatures will go up by 10 to 20C? Lets make the number actually scary.

BTW, 2C is going to break the grid? I guess it’s possible considering how much renewable power they are forcing on us.

tygrus
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 3:10 pm

They’re using the claimed 1.#C warming till now plus >0.2C per decade. The other assumption is that we’ll reach CO2 emissions sufficient to increase the mean temperature but it would take several decades after for the mean temperature to reach the new equilibrium. In terms of aircon power use, YMMV.
Hot days in Western Sydney have our aircon running at maximum, hotter days doesn’t increase daytime power usage but instead they increase the inside temp above 27C. Our aircon will then use more power overnight & we try to cool the house below 22C before the sunrises again for a new day.

Many people have older aircons with lower efficiency than newer models, so there is capacity to increase output by replacing those old models in the future.
Some people choose to stay with family or hang out at shops/cinema to avoid a hot house. More of us could plan for extreme weather & limited grid capacity (or high cost) by moving in with neighbours for a few days during blizzards/heatwaves. Hot air rises so it’s colder downstairs & warmer upstairs. People produce ~70w heat asleep & ~100w when watching TV.

MAL
Reply to  tygrus
February 4, 2022 5:17 pm

“Many people have older aircons with lower efficiency than newer models,” Here in the Valley of the Sun all the new models were not more efficient, Every one cost more to buy and to run. 

TonyG
Reply to  MarkW
February 6, 2022 9:36 am

2C is going to break the grid? I guess it’s possible considering how much renewable power they are forcing on us.

That’s the idea – get the excuses ready now.

John Pickens
February 4, 2022 10:45 am

The green blob wants to convert all modes of transportation from fossil fuels to electric, and we’re worried about a minimal to nonexistent increase in electricity use due to air conditioning? Madness…

Rud Istvan
February 4, 2022 10:46 am

Absurd on its face. ‘Leveraging AI and climate models’ to predict AC crashes the grid by 2030.
Temperatures are not soaring and heat waves are not increasing.

And, at climate.Copernicus.eu on page one they have a nifty plot of the CMIP6 ensemble global average temperatures. SSPS8.5 is about 14.8C in 2020 and about 15.2C about 2035. A difference of about 0.4C over a longer time period than this ‘study’ IS NOT going to crash a grid designed with 10-15% spare peak capacity.

Another stupid projection that cause ridicule when 2030 comes aroung.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 4, 2022 12:05 pm

Maybe the unstated assumption is that the grid will be supported only by unreliable ‘renewables’ and everyone will be buying EVs’. Then, every Watt will count!

Philip
February 4, 2022 10:49 am

If the grid fails it will be from electric cars, forcing people to go “electric “,and trying to depend on wind and solar. They will blame it on the air conditioners.
Same expensive stupidity the Marxist idiots keep trying to force on us.

Last edited 7 months ago by Philip
Machiko
February 4, 2022 10:50 am

The Ensteins at AGU did not address the increasing number of electric vehicles that also increase the drain on the grid.

Reply to  Machiko
February 4, 2022 11:49 am

They went woke, not Einstein.

GeologyJim
Reply to  Machiko
February 5, 2022 7:41 am

Remember that AGU had Peter Gleick (forger, fraudster, liar, scamster) on their Professional Ethics Panel at the time his deception about Heartland Institute was exposed.

And they kept him on the panel – without comment or censure.

BTW, why is American GEOPHYSICAL Union publishing such tripe totally unrelated to Earth science?

Brad
February 4, 2022 10:53 am

It is due to the Urban Heat Island Effect.
Quit building in dense configurations. The big cities did it to themselves…

jeffery p
Reply to  Brad
February 4, 2022 12:59 pm

Brad, I think it’s the UHI that enables the global warming hoax. The models and data adjustment underestimate (seriously underestimate, in fact) the effects of UHI.

MAL
Reply to  Brad
February 4, 2022 5:24 pm

Yep not only does it cost in UHI but in a large fire, the house light up one after another right down the roll. Yet the idiots blame the fires on climate change. Ten feet apart is to close, in a fire condition a hundred is only safe, funny my childhood home meet that 100 ft condition.

roaddog
Reply to  MAL
February 5, 2022 3:00 pm

Exactly what we just saw in Boulder and now 1,000 homes gone. Its not Climate Change, its horrible zoning regulations and complete absence of fire mitigation.

Reply to  Brad
February 4, 2022 7:58 pm

I have done an analysis of Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) for several cities: New York, Washington D.C., Vancouver, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Portland, Philadelphia, Baltimore and several more. You might find it interesting. Not surprisingly, UHIs are highly variable. Airports are some of the UHI hot spots, where many NOAA weather stations are located. My maps show some of the NOAA weather stations inside the UHI. Also, not all UHIs are getting warmer over the last 10 to 20 years.
The web site is, http://www.urbanhi.net

Tom.1
February 4, 2022 10:55 am

Just make everyone upgrade to a 25 SEER.

MAL
Reply to  Tom.1
February 4, 2022 5:25 pm

Sorry my personal experience shows those ratting are a joke.

Devils Tower
February 4, 2022 10:59 am

What crap, go to florida, example of 96f and 100% humidity. It is like that from march to sept/oct and has been since the beginning. It can not get more oppressive and it is a limiting condition. A/C makes it possible to be a useful economy. Before a/c it was for migrating snowbirds or beach huts.

Net zero will turn the world back to a bunch of homeless nomads migrating with the seasons.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Devils Tower
February 4, 2022 12:07 pm

Net zero will turn the world back to a bunch of homeless nomads migrating with the seasons.

They can pick up extra income picking fruit and vegetables as they migrate with the seasons.

roaddog
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
February 4, 2022 1:24 pm

Ah, finally those Green Jobs Obama promised.

Gums
Reply to  Devils Tower
February 4, 2022 1:39 pm

@Devils…

Forida is not all 96* and high humidity all the time , and we in the Panhandle have actual four seasons plus freezes in December, January and February. A better example is New Orleans where I grew up.

You must talk with folks my age – 70 to 90 years old. In the 50’s we saw 95 deg all the time in summer, but rarely below 35 deg in winter. Air conditioning was something for department stores and a few groceries. We only had two homes on my street with window units, and the rest of us had whole house fans. Guess what? We all survived and went on and prospered.

Mankind evolved in very warm climates ( not weather) and did just fine as it populated the world in very cold climates/weather as well in warm, tropical conditions.

I have to see the data, i.e. records, of the pain and misery of a population that was forced to endure an increase of 1 degree in average temperature within 50 years.

Gums wonders…

MAL
Reply to  Devils Tower
February 4, 2022 5:29 pm

Sorry live in Arizona, been in Florida in July. It may be humid but it not like stepping in 110 + temps period. The panhandle it is nice in the summer on can actually be outside midday.

Duane
February 4, 2022 11:01 am

Idiocy. The temperature rise over the next decade, if anything at all, will be minuscule if measurable at all.

Given that air conditioners only last about 10-15 years, and that new units replacing old units are significantly more energy efficient, the greater probability is that electrical energy consumption due to AC use will decrease, not increase.

roaddog
Reply to  Duane
February 4, 2022 11:45 am

Now Duane, there is no such thing as continuous improvement.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  roaddog
February 4, 2022 12:12 pm

To paraphrase Dirty Harry, an air conditioner has to know its limits. One-hundred percent efficiency is not obtainable. Almost all systems have an efficiency or cost curve characterized by a region of decreased rate of improvement, asymptotically approaching the theoretical limit.

roaddog
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
February 4, 2022 1:06 pm

Which doesn’t stop us trying. In similar fashion, an excerpt from the old Native American chief who accompanied Josey Wales, “Endeavor to persevere.”

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  roaddog
February 4, 2022 2:33 pm

That was the funniest movie Clint ever made. Will always be a classic.

“I notice that when you get to disliking people they aren’t around for too long either”.

roaddog
Reply to  Pat from Kerbob
February 5, 2022 3:02 pm

Yes, there was some fantastic very dry humor in that one.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  roaddog
February 6, 2022 6:52 pm

Which doesn’t stop us trying.

However, it is a fool’s errand to try to achieve more than is possible. It is also not rational to invest a lot of money to try to improve efficiency once the point of diminishing returns is reached.

MarkW
Reply to  Duane
February 4, 2022 3:38 pm

Every AC unit that I have ever owned or used has lasted well past 10 to 15 years.
The current unit is over 30 years.

MAL
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 5:30 pm

Believe me the next one is going to cost more to run, been there done that.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  MAL
February 6, 2022 6:55 pm

Often it is more economical to keep something that is old and inefficient rather than pay the up front cost to replace it. One has to take into account the amortization of the replacement cost when the cost of operation is calculated.

gringojay
February 4, 2022 11:13 am

No Problem-o: everybody can just get into their electric vehicle and turn on the air conditioning if they feel too hot.

8A9400CF-7AE7-4671-816D-68B7345F5A68.jpeg
Bryan A
Reply to  gringojay
February 4, 2022 2:19 pm

you should insert a picture of AOC next to the pair of asses

Last edited 7 months ago by Bryan A
joe
February 4, 2022 11:13 am

not to worry, rolling black outs to the rescue.

Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 11:18 am

“as global temperature rises 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) or 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, finding demand in the United States overall could rise 8% at the lower and 13% at the higher threshold.”

duh! let’s see, it’s slightly warmer so we’ll increase our AC from 8-13%??? And this was published by a science organization and not the Sierra Club? What are they tripping on? More people have AC every year thanks to the price for air conditioners getting cheaper every year- so maybe total power needs for AC goes up, but not do the climate change- but now that Biden wants to wipe out cheap energy- more people will go into poverty and do without AC- not the wealthy of course

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 12:14 pm

AGU has no restrictions on membership. They will even allow Sierra Club members to join.

I’m reminded of the joke by Groucho Marx: “I wouldn’t want to belong to any club that would have me as a member.”

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 5, 2022 7:25 am

They used RCP 8.5 which Roger Pielke jnr has completely debunked and Zeke Hausfather said was being “misused” by climate scientists. Even the BBC has acknowledged it is “exceedingly unlikely” and ” no longer plausible”

Yet they continue to trot the rubbish out

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Dave Andrews
February 5, 2022 7:34 am

we’re all drowning in a sea of climate bullshit- I’d draw it as a cartoon if I could better than a 3 year old, but I can’t- it was better half a century ago when all we had to think about was WWIII- at least that was a “clear and present danger”- though of course it was exagerated too- good for the military industrial complex and something to yap about by politicians- we must be ever vigilant against this nonsense

Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 11:20 am

“It’s a pretty clear warning to all of us that we can’t keep doing what we are doing or our energy system will break down in the next few decades, simply because of the summertime air conditioning,”

it wouldn’t break down if we stayed with fossil fuels and nuclear- only with wind/solar, it probably will- it sounds like she understands this all too well

Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 11:23 am

“leveraging the state-of-the-art in machine learning and climate model projections, we find substantial increases in future residential air conditioning demand across the U.S.”

wow, I wonder if those fancy methods understand that more people can afford them- and more people have moved to warm regions- nah, too stupid for that

Peter W
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 4, 2022 4:31 pm

Some of us have moved to a warmer climate in order to get away from that terrible global warming up north (see recent low temperatures there for examples of “global warming”.) Think of the savings in energy and CO2 emissions as we no longer have to heat up north!

MAL
Reply to  Peter W
February 4, 2022 5:35 pm

Yes it was cold here in Arizona yesterday, a high of about 60, that beats the hell out of the high of -7 were I use to live. I would have to live over a billion to see winter temps even close to an average of 68F in Fargo North Dakota in February.

roaddog
Reply to  MAL
February 6, 2022 7:29 am

Yes, GITMO should really be in FARGO.

fretslider
February 4, 2022 11:23 am

It’s state of the art rubbish

And what a sorry state the modelling art is in

MarkW
Reply to  fretslider
February 4, 2022 11:41 am

To err is human

To really F things up, requires a computer

George Daddis
Reply to  MarkW
February 4, 2022 2:28 pm

Not according to Barack Obama.
Although I assume the WH comes equipped with a PC.

roaddog
Reply to  George Daddis
February 6, 2022 7:31 am

Barama’s first ACA website dramatically verified Mark’s claim.

James Allen
February 4, 2022 11:26 am

Huh, I wonder what the load from a couple million new electric vehicles would do to the grid? It would be nice if these fools worked on that problem too. Go nuclear or go home kids…

Gums
Reply to  James Allen
February 4, 2022 12:24 pm

Salute James!

you hit the biggie.

even with current (no pun intended) grid capacity, the influx of zillions of EV autos will overload the grid.

we ain’t even counting the zillions to enhance our infrastructure…..bigger cables to the neighborhoods, new junction boxes on our house or apartment garage, and the beat goes on.

Gums sends…

toddinsc
Reply to  James Allen
February 4, 2022 1:41 pm

Yeah; forget the air conditioning. EV’s will introduce a far larger load on capacity if acceptance rates increase if or when battery prices drop.

Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
February 4, 2022 11:27 am

Nonsense. The big expansion of air-conditioning in the US was in the 1960’s and 70’s. According to consensus climastrology, most of the warming will be in extra-tropical regions in the form of higher daily minimum temperatures, which will have minimal impact on A/C demand. Any resulting increased A/C demand will be more than offset by increased efficiency as older units are upgraded.

Meanwhile, nothing said about increased demand from EVs or bitcoin mining.

MAL
Reply to  Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
February 4, 2022 5:37 pm

The newer units are not more efficient, my most efficient I owned in Arizona was my first. It was over 30 years old, guess what the new ones only last ten years and cost more to run.

Reply to  MAL
February 5, 2022 7:31 am

Mal:
We had a different experience here in Mesa, AZ.
Our SEER 9 unit died [after 15 years] and the new SEER 14 unit
lowered our summer electric bill by > $200/month. But how
reliable remains to be seen.

ResourceGuy
February 4, 2022 11:29 am

What’s the multiplier effect of RCP 8.5 on the pub mill and academic advancement via models? I would say a multiplier of 8.0 but that might be too low.

roaddog
February 4, 2022 11:48 am

I know this is a bit circular, but there’s really nothing much going on here.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/02/03/uah-global-temperature-update-for-january-2022-0-03-deg-c/

Rick C
February 4, 2022 11:52 am

Do you suppose that these clowns are aware that the “global warming” they think is going to require greater A/C electrical demand is a result of:

  1. Less cool nights
  2. Warmer winters
  3. More warming in the polar region?

ASHREA (American Society of Heating Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Engineers) has tons of location specific data on heating and cooling degree days used to determine the proper sizing of heating, cooling and ventilation systems. I very much doubt that this historically based data has suddenly become obsolete because the projection of a bunch of SWAGs know as climate models project an insignificant increase in global average temperature. That’s not to say that the electrical grid won’t collapse when a serious heat wave occurs once reliable dispatchable generation is replaced by unreliable wind and solar. That, I’m afraid, is a certainty even if there turns out to be no global warming.

roaddog
Reply to  Rick C
February 4, 2022 12:14 pm

The basic premise of these Alarmist Reports is so often fatally flawed that they’re laughable. The phrase of this decade is “following the science,” but anything based on RCP8.5 is by definition not “following the science.”

We’re seeing mass migrations out of coastal and extreme blue states in the US, for political and financial motivations.(Notably much of this migration is into the Southeast, especially Florida, North and South Carolina, and Georgia; so the fear of warming temperatures surely isn’t resonating with the politically and financially oppressed!)

Surely if the members of one’s family start dropping off, its not inconceivable to order up a U-Haul and move in an appropriate direction. It was -6 below here yesterday morning.

Lastly, as Duane points out in his comments, continuous improvement is the order of the day. Surely the new air conditioners being brought on line are of much higher efficiency than older units.

roaddog
Reply to  Rick C
February 4, 2022 12:20 pm

And to your point, Rick, the B-52 in the ointment is the grid itself. The combination of still air, extreme cold and significant snowfall accomplishes the fossil-fuel-free Green New Death.
Winter is Coming.

Slowroll
Reply to  Rick C
February 5, 2022 11:57 am

I think you meant WAGs. Nothing scientific about it.

Doonman
February 4, 2022 11:58 am

Don’t worry, you can always sit in your air conditioned electric vehicle instead. No chance that they will overload the grid or the governments would not promote them.

Peter W
Reply to  Doonman
February 4, 2022 4:38 pm

A lot of people will be more likely to sit in their EV to warm up, the way things are going.

Clyde Spencer
February 4, 2022 11:59 am

The study projected summertime usage as global temperature rises 1.5 degrees Celsius …

Once again, the myopic alarmists use an annual global average as a benchmark, ignoring the well-known fact that most warming is at night and in the Winter. Furthermore, the average is biased by Arctic warming.

For a realistic assessment they should use a prediction of the average summertime T-Max for the latitudes where the majority of people live who can afford air conditioning. They should also not use RCP8.5!

This AGU study reminds me of a high school science project where the student’s science class is being taught by a music major because the district couldn’t find any qualified science teachers.

roaddog
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
February 4, 2022 1:17 pm

I believe its Michigan calling in the National Guard to backfill their current Covid-induced teacher shortage.

“Class, please first don your safety glasses. Next make certain the safety is engaged on your weapon; next remove the magazine; and finally, draw back the bolt to ensure that no round is chambered.”

H.R.
Reply to  roaddog
February 4, 2022 5:04 pm

When the National Guard fills in for the math teacher:

“If I have a full magazine and I use my weapon to disperse the crack dealers on the corner, how many bullets are remaining after the lookout, the seller, and the crack runner have been picked up by the coroner?

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?”

roaddog
Reply to  H.R.
February 5, 2022 3:08 pm

Which brings us around to the current debate about the meaning of “standard capacity magazine.” In my state a “standard capacity magazine” holds 30 rounds. Just to the south of us they’d jail you for that. Math is hard.

pat michaels
February 4, 2022 12:25 pm

Amazing. GHGs warm up the winter more than the summer, and the nights more than the days, and the more cold air there is, the greater the warming if the dewpoint is less than 0C. Published that in the refereed literature in 2001.

And yet we will need more a/c but less energy for heating? AGU’s peer review process is a laugh.

February 4, 2022 12:28 pm

Fighting back: https://www.cfact.org/2022/02/04/electric-power-reforms-gain-ground-in-virginia/

What the whole world needs. Steering away from renewable madness.

Rob_Dawg
February 4, 2022 12:37 pm

Any use of RCP 8.5 is criminal.

jeffery p
February 4, 2022 12:45 pm

Do you see those window A/C units in the picture? Just turn them around. If enough people do it, it’ll get cold outside.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  jeffery p
February 4, 2022 2:26 pm

Brilliant.
Except i already own the patent on that.
$100 please

MarkW
Reply to  jeffery p
February 4, 2022 3:43 pm

And if the house gets to warm, just leave the refrigerator door open to cool it back down.

jeffery p
February 4, 2022 12:50 pm

We’re not going to exceed the electricity supply because of global warming, demand is going to outstrip supply because of the lame-brain schemes to stop global warming.

Quit this carbon-neutral nonsense and there should be plenty of electricity. Should be assumes we will build enough reliable, economical, capacity to match increasing demand.

Hutches Hunches
February 4, 2022 1:14 pm
  • When will these green geniuses realize that their rollout of their EV revolution will necessarily crash their green grid when the sun doesn’t shine and wind the wind doesn’t blow?
  • Oh, I know the answer… They will welcome it. It will give them the opportunity to put their real goals in place. Force everyone into gritty cities with the only choice of travel being bicycles, buses and trains. That will solve the Maga problem as well as cement the Democratic hold on power. What could go wrong?
H.R.
Reply to  Hutches Hunches
February 5, 2022 4:27 am

Correct, Hutches. Collapsing the grid is a feature, not a bug, if your goal is to create a top-down centrally planned economy.

Can’t have options and people making decisions for themselves now, can we?

But Joe and Jane Six-pack might get a little miffed if you let on that your real goal is to control every aspect of their lives. So you have to make stuff up like, “We’re saving the Planet.”

Tom in Florida
February 4, 2022 1:28 pm

I wonder what temperature setting they are using to make the prediction. Is the A/C setting to cool homes down to 72F, 76F or 80F?
Personally, my A/C is set at 83F in the day and 80F at night. Ceiling fans provide an extra couple of degrees of feel like coolness.

Peter W
Reply to  Tom in Florida
February 4, 2022 4:42 pm

Think of all the electricity those ceiling fans use?

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Peter W
February 4, 2022 7:30 pm

Since you only put them on when you are in the room, very little.

Chris Hanley
February 4, 2022 1:40 pm

I remember the good old days when people bought electrical equipment because electricity was available.
In the 1940s we got rid of the old ice box (ice was delivered once or twice a week) and bought a refrigerator, the the old washing copper and mangle and bought a washing machine, a drying machine, vacuum cleaner and so on.
That was supply-side economics at work, apparently nowadays demand must be limited by the available supply.
Welcome to the Command Economy.

Last edited 7 months ago by Chris Hanley
Reply to  Chris Hanley
February 5, 2022 7:39 am

Chris
And what about Smart Meters so the power company can manage your
electricity usage?

billtoo
February 4, 2022 1:41 pm

build more grid?

Steve O
February 4, 2022 2:09 pm

The obvious solution is to reduce our electrical generation capacity.

Pat from Kerbob
February 4, 2022 2:23 pm

Standard mis-information.
Even if the temperature gets to 2C rise, that is an average temperature and as we have seen its all nights and winters.
Its not getting hotter.

And as has been noted its almost all UHI so better designed cities will counteract all that, and things will continue on.

roaddog
Reply to  Pat from Kerbob
February 5, 2022 3:10 pm

I take it last year’s summer’s work by BLM was to make way for better designed cities?

dk_
February 4, 2022 2:27 pm

but because the AI / home robot / technology revolution will send our energy demand through the roof.

The biggest power demand for high-performance computing is cooling, so you are really falling for the same argument as the authors.

But neither proposal is correct — the grid will collapse due to 1) failure to expand to meet demand, 2) failure to maintain and modernize existing grid components 3) cyberattack of multiple vulnerabilities and points of failure 4) failure to provide reliable generation capability to allow for demand growth and compensate for mandated fake “renewable” energy sources, and probably 5) failure to take measures other than 1 and 2, above, to guard against natural and artificial high-energy events such as solar flare and EMP.

dk_
Reply to  dk_
February 4, 2022 2:29 pm

Add 4b) failure to compensate for idiotic attempts to integrate the grid with electric storage.

Tony Taylor
February 4, 2022 2:45 pm

EVs, ACs, AI… they better find more effective supply sources and upgraded networks quick sticks.

Olen
February 4, 2022 2:57 pm

Bringing in, illegally, large populations that are not needed will crash the grid with overload. In other words government can destroy a workable grid.

Tom Abbott
February 4, 2022 4:36 pm

From the article: “Climate change will drive an increase in summer air conditioning use in the United States likely to cause prolonged blackouts during peak summer heat if states do not expand capacity or improve efficiency, according to a new study of household-level demand.
The study projected summertime usage as global temperature rises 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) or 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, finding demand in the United States overall could rise 8% at the lower and 13% at the higher threshold.”

Yeah, but what if it doesn’t warm by 1.5C or 2C?

Climate Change Alarmists assume continued warming even though it is currently cooling. How long can they cling to the delusion?

roaddog
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 5, 2022 3:12 pm

I’m thinking they will cling to it eternally.

Dennis
February 4, 2022 7:14 pm

Add Electric Vehicles recharging.

Robert of Texas
February 4, 2022 7:53 pm

Yep. Air conditioning required to counter the 1F (or so) or warming is going to bring the grid down… Not the reliance on intermittent power sources or all the electrical vehicles plugged into the grid.

Chances are good that the constantly improving home insulation and air conditioning efficiency will completely counter any additional warming over that period. But you plug in a few 10’s of millions of electrical vehicles to charge and the power grid is going to notice.

Shoki Kaneda
February 4, 2022 7:59 pm

Unless it doesn’t, which is much more likely.

D Boss
February 5, 2022 5:29 am

Actually the problem with supply falling far below demand has been around for a long time. I can recall discussions with an old friend, who was an engineer making controls for Power Plants back in the 1980’s and even then the long term planning for grid supply and stability showed the NIMBY (not in my back yard) lobby killing plans for new power plants – whether they be fossil fuel or nuclear, would result in a dramatic shortfall of power supply. And once behind the 8 ball, you cannot recover without blackouts, rationing, etc.

We are catching up to those projections and the problems will become exponentially serious due to the lead time required to build more generating capacity (conventional – anyone who believes wind and solar are an answer to anything – puts faith in unicorn fairy dust and rainbows leading to pots of gold).

Kit P
Reply to  D Boss
February 5, 2022 9:42 am

Good utilities have long range resource management plans and educate public officials to get capacity built. They also have the best weather predicting people for day to day demand. It was my great pleasure to work with these people.

Also worked for a not so good utility in California. One day I get a phone call from a lady I was dating. She was irate because her A/C had been turned off. I suggested that she could go to our lobby or any one of many goverment office in Sacramento. Take a sweater, it will be cool.

The device fitted on her A/C should be mandatory for the governor, legislature, and utility CEO instead. Turn their power off first when they fail their public duty.

roaddog
Reply to  Kit P
February 6, 2022 7:38 am

“educate public officials” is a bit oxymoronic.

TonyG
February 5, 2022 1:57 pm

Looks to me like they know the “renewables” push is going to fall flat so they’re getting their excuses lined up in advance.

glenn holdcroft
February 5, 2022 8:52 pm

Nothing a few more gas or coal or nuclear power stations couldn’t handle .
Its the politicians and greenies we can’t handle .

Jack
February 6, 2022 7:04 am

This article forgets to say that during summer heat waves, cars and homes airconditionning warm the cities by several degrees, thus contributing to the Urban Heat Island Effect.
If the global warming is 1,5 °C on average in the surrounding landscape, the temperatures increase in an urban environment may reach up to 6 to 7°C more, thus obliging to spent much more electric power for cars and homes air conditionning.

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