By Kenneth Richard on 31. January 2022
Since 2019,there have been over 350 peer-reviewed scientific papers published showing no warming in the modern era and/or much warmer temperatures than today when CO2 levels ranged from 180 to 280 ppm (Holocene, Pleistocene).
Below is the link to the updated (now including 2021) database of non-hockey temperature records from locations across the world.
These hundreds of papers suggest a) Earth was multiple degrees warmer than today throughout much of the last 11,700 years (Holocene), and b) there has been nothing unusual about temperature changes in the modern era.
The first 8 papers on the 2021 list are shown below as samples.
Over 350 Non-Hockey Sticks (2019-2021)
Zhou et al., 2021 South China Sea ~4°C warmer SST during the Middle Holocene…1994-2004 coldest temperatures of the last 6000 years
Tarasov et al., 2021 (full paper) Arctic Siberia was 3.5 to 5°C warmer than today during the peak of the last glacial (180 ppm CO2), providing year-round grass grazing for large herbivores
Environments during the spread of anatomically modern humans across Northern Asia 50–10 cal kyr BP …. Northern Asia (here, the Russian Federation east of the Urals) played a key role in the spread of anatomically modern humans (AMH) across the Eurasian continent during the Upper Palaeolithic (UP). … Contrary to the long-standing view of a generally colder-than-present last glacial climate, these proxy records reveal evidence that summers were warmer than today by several degrees Celsius, providing additional advantages for human activities. Another benefit for large herbivores, and thus human subsistence, were the generally low winter precipitation levels (similar to those of the modern steppe regions of Mongolia), which sustained year-round grazing grounds. These factors apparently outweighed the harsh colder-than-present winter conditions and promoted habitation of AMH in Northern Asia even during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ca. 30‒18 cal kyr BP. … [R]econstructed mean July temperatures 12°C for most of the last cold stage in the study area, where modern mean July temperatures are about 7°C … [A]t least 3.5°C higher-than-present summer temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum [CO2 180 ppm] in the southern part of eastern Siberia
Wetterich et al., 2021 Siberian Arctic had “warmer-than-today temperatures (by up to 4–4.5° C)” during the last glacial (180 ppm CO2), or between “39 and 31 cal kyr BP”
Between 48 and 38 cal kyr BP, the chironomid fauna is dominated by typical aquatic taxa although chironomid counts and diversity decrease considerably between 46 and 44 cal kyr BP when the reconstructed TJuly rises up to 1.5°C above modern. The period between 44 and 41.5 cal kyr BP is characterized by the highest diversity and concentration of chironomids. The communities are dominated by the Heterotrissocladius grimschawi-type that occurs in oligotrophic lakes and is indicative of moderate conditions with temperature optima of 11–12°C. … Reconstructed TJuly slightly varies around modern with warmer-than-today TJuly around 41 cal kyr BP. … At about 51 cal kyr BP and 40 cal kyr BP in the Bykovsky record, the occurrence of the temperate aquatic plant Callitriche hermaphroditica provides evidence of mean TJuly of 12° C or more, while the finding of the steppe taxon Thesium dated to 51 cal kyr suggests TJuly of 15°C or more. The chironomid-based TJuly reconstruction for MIS 3 from the Sobo-Sise Yedoma record shows some variation (Figure 5) and points to warmer-than today (>11° C) temperatures at about 51 cal kyr BP, 46-44 and 41 cal kyr BP showing a general agreement with the plant macrofossil-based TJuly estimates from the Bykovsky Yedoma record (Kienast et al., 2005). … TJuly reconstructions from the western part of the Yana-Indigirka lowland (east of the study area) reveal similarto or warmer-than-today temperatures (by up to 4–4.5° C) and higher-than-today annual precipitation (by up to 50–100 mm) between about 39 and 31 cal kyr BP (Pitulko et al., 2017)
Civel-Mazens et al., 2021 22,000 years ago (180 ppm CO2) Southern Ocean surface temperatures peaked at 13.6°C, which is ~4-5°C warmer than today (~9°C)
Cruz et al., 2021 Argentina 1.7°C to 4.4°C warmer than today during the 1800s
The paleoclimatic history of Tixi Cave (Table 3, Figure 4), compared to the present, indicates a colder (−3.3°C) and dryer (−274.6mm) climate for the Pleistocene-Early Holocene transition (12,287±212–11,609±218ca BP). These cold and dry conditions remained during the Middle-Holocene (5592±79ca BP) with lower mean annual temperature (−2.4°C) and lower precipitation (−201.2mm) than the present. The change happened during the Late-Holocene IV (3496±81ca BP) with warmer and humid conditions than the current conditions, showing an increase in average annual temperature (+3.5°C) and annual precipitation (+90.8mm). These warm and humid conditions were kept during the rest of Late-Holocene III–I (1656±96–160±120 ca BP) with an increase in mean annual temperature between 1.7°C and 4.4°C and annual precipitation 27.5–263.6mm, higher than the current.
Nazarova et al., 2021 (full) East Russia 1.5°C warmer than present during Medieval Warm Period (750-1250 AD)
The Medieval Climate Optimum (Nara–Heian–Kamakura stage in Japan) reconstructed for the eastern part of Primorsky Krai in the period from 1250 to 750 cal years BP featured a humid climate with summer temperatures ca. 1.5°C higher than at present. The period between 750 and 250 cal years BP correlates with the Little Ice Age: summer temperatures had dropped to 1.5–2°C below the modern one.
Shuttleworth et al., 2021 Sub-Antarctic Atlantic ~2°C warmer (see diamonds) ~4000 to ~5000 years ago
Allan et al., 2021 Greenland 5-7°C warmer (4-5°C vs. 10-12°C) than today from 7,500 to 5,500 years ago.
There is a relatively stable temperature during an interglacial period until there is a drop to a relatively stable temperature in a glacial period until there is a rise to a relatively stable temperature in an interglacial period…..🤓
There seems to be (in the CAGWers) a misconception that the periods of warm and cold are “steady state”, which they are not. Cold periods are interrupted by warmth, and warm periods are interrupted by cold. It’s both seasonal changes and periodicity, dependent on how much the Sun does for us in the way of keeping the planet a tad warmer than Mars in winter.
If there’s a way to “disabuse” them of the steady state stuff, please let me know. I have yet to run into anyone who is babbling “Earth will burn up!” or something like that. But if we are 18,000 years into this warm period, which has had repeated interruptions of COLD climate episodes, however brief they might be, interglacial periods take place during prolonged warm periods, and warming periods (which allow civilizations to flourish) take place during prolonged cold periods. This planet does not have a ‘steady-state’ physiology. Neither do the other planets in our system. We’re all lucky to have a warm climate right now.
And despite their desperation, the Warmunistas don’t seem to understand that this particular warming period is working in everyone’s favor. Without it, we’d all be hunkered down in caverns, making bowstrings our of sinews and trying to figure out how to shut the howling wind coming in through the cave entrance.
Maybe if the grants money stopped…. What??? I can speculate, can’t I?
Obviously they were not picking the right places. Final Nail should be along any moment with his thermometer that reads 1.439999.
The issue i have is, isn’t this all obvious? It was a well known fact until Mann and the climategate hockey team started rewriting history to support the narrative?
I mean, isn’t there endless physical evidence all over the world with sea levels, treelines being much further north where its now frozen tundra and much higher up mountain ranges, forests, villages and farms and churches and mines all being revealed under existing glaciers?
If there is so much endless evidence, why is there even a moments debate over the “hottest ever” bullshit?
Is this all a game to them?
It is a very profitable game to them.
It also gives governments an unfixable problem that they can use as a policy initiative that just keeps giving.
The rot in knowledge is so deep now that no one seeking elected office even attempts to offer an alternate view on the evils of CO2.
Imagine Boris going to the Queen and telling her she will need to rescind her statements on climate change because the science consensus was wrong. Imagine Biden acknowledging that Trump had it dead right on CO2.
It is going to take a loooong time before reality prevails. We now live in the metaverse and make-believe is king. The era best described as the “king has no clothes”. Who is brave enough to stand up and call out this garbage about “greenhouse gasses” and the way they supposedly control earth’s energy balance – pure tripe that so many people have swallowed, hook line and sinker!
Meanwhile before reality prevails we will have splurged our wealth and resources on useless boondoggles, a bit like the Easter Island statues.
“Imagine Boris going to the Queen and telling her she will need to rescind her statements on climate change because the science consensus was wrong.”
He could show her this graph and they could have a jolly good chuckle over a lovely cup of tea and live happily ever after.
“The rot in knowledge is so deep now that no one seeking elected office even attempts to offer an alternate view on the evils of CO2.”
Here in Corruptachusetts, anyone running for office who offers an alternative view will be tarred and feathered.
Rick, the worst is that they, too (now) know they are wrong about Global warming. They believed it and even made testable predictions back in the late 1980s and 90s. When the predictions (belatedly changed to “projections”) failed miserably, and the Dreaded Pause set in.
Two things happened, a) a number of climate scientists were struck down with career ending psychological depression known as the “Climate Blues” (all that studying and 20yrs invested in clisci falsified!). b) The rest set about egregiously adjusting temperatures to fit the meme, had station moves and station exclusions to weed out those that weren’t supporting the cause and shifting goalposts to ‘correct’ the record.
Not a few commenting here are aware that the 1998 super el Niño did not set a new record. The late 1930s still held the record high temperature until it was pushed down a full degree C by J Hansen of GISS in 2007, on the eve of his retirement. “Father of Global Warming” indeed! So, yeah, they knew very well.
All’s fair in lust and abortion.
The CO2 Science website has plentiful evidence about the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). link
There are papers documenting the MWP on almost every square inch of the planet. Under the headings, there are summaries. Here is the summary for Global.
The evidence that Mann’s hockey stick is fraudulent is overwhelming.
Check out this interactive map of papers covering the MWP.
Often there is an argument that the MWP was localized (whatever that means) and did not have global implications like the current warming trend (whatever that means).
A single paper with a single proxy was allowed to write out the entire MWP. Undermining the research, data and gained knowledge of 100’s if not 1000’s of scientists!
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?usp=sharing_eid&mid=1akI_yGSUlO_qEvrmrIYv9kHknq4
“The evidence that Mann’s hockey stick is fraudulent is overwhelming.”
Yes, it is.
Maybe WUWT should offer awards to any MSM that tell the truth about climate.
Good idea. And it won’t cost WUWT a penny. **nudge, nudge, wink**
there could be gold, silver and bronze awards
and maybe diamond, for any of the cardinals of climate “science” like Mickey Mann who repent- diamond being 100% carbon of course :-}
It’s a game, because The They can’t win without cheating and The They don’t like losing.
It is awful that these papers were not approved by Dr. Mann otherwise it would be a disaster to the AGW cult.
Snicker….
It seems this can all be reconciled if one assumes the various proxies are accurate to +/- 4 C…
tree ring thermometers are accurate to 4 decimal places /s
In which direction from the decimal? Lol!
are we still talking about that 1 degree….inflated on the y axis
Compare any of the above graphs with this one. I would file it under natural variability denialism. It’s like the cartoonist applied a huge low pass filter to the historical data and then took it off for the modern data. He’s either dishonest, or not as smart as he thinks he is.
The #1 natural variability denier would be Dr. Michael Mann whose made-to-order scientism really should end him up behind bars.
The entire paleoclimate community stands indicted. They have no excuse for the hockey stick fraud continuing for decades. Lying or enabling liars is the same thing.
“The entire paleoclimate community stands indicted.”
Yes, they do.
Any reasonable person familiar with climate data would reject the claims of Mann and his Hockey Stick team. The evidence is all there including written, regional surface temperature charts which put the lie to Mann’s and Phil Jones’ Hockey Stick distortions of reality, where they claim we are experiencing unprecedented warming today, when the evidence shows that is not the case.
Any climate scientist who thinks we are living in the “hottest times evah!” is either not very smart, or is in on the climate change scam.
There is no unprecedented warming today. The only thing showing unprecedented warming is Mann’s/Jones’ bogus, bastardized Hockey Stick charts, which were created in a computer whose rules were set by dishonest climate scientists (Mann-Jones) with a political agenda.
The U.S. has been in a cooling trend since the 1930’s, as has the rest of the world.
Yep. I grew up on stories about the Dirty Thirties on the Great Plains. I believe in natural climate change.
This graph/chronology is disgraceful “science”. I’ve never seen a worse example.
I think (hope) you’re being sarcastic and I like it. I think I would argue that the best science is always “disgraceful”, as it thumbs its nose at conventional thought and shines a light forward to new and scary truths.
I think that happens naturally when you compare proxies, which a highly smoothed, to thermometer readings, which a highly un-smoothed. If for example one takes the average of the past fifty years of thermometer readings and still those numbers on the end of a proxy series, there is nothing to be alarmed about.
You also have problems when your proxies and thermometers are going in opposite directions. Remember Mike’s Nature Trick? In any respectable field of human endeavor that should have ended his career.
His graph is really smooth prior to the invention of thermometers in 1714….But up until then his “line” should be about 3 C wide followed by about 1 C wide until about 1850….
“The #1 natural variability denier would be Dr. Michael Mann whose made-to-order scientism really should end him up behind bars.”
Yes, just think of all the damage Mann’s climate change lies have done to humanity. His deceptions are a crime against humanity.
Tarasov and Wetterich is mind blowing. Siberia 5-15C warmer in July than today, during the Last Glacial Maximum? That opened way for migrations into Asia and the Americas. But that was mostly pre-Holocene.
The average June insolation over the northern land masses 12,000 years ago was 507W/sq.m. It is now down to 467W/sq.m., which is less than 1W/sq.m above the minimum of 400 years ago.
Climate is never the same on planet Earth. Reducing atmospheric CO2 to stabilise Earth’s climate is in the same category as sticking pins into a doll to harm an individual – voodoo science.
“The average June insolation over the northern land masses 12,000 years ago was 507W/sq.m. It is now down to 467W/sq.m”
That has to be significant. It certainly doesn’t portend a warming world.
I’ve got a funny feeling that the ”unprecedented modern warming” claims are bullshit.
Those claims are BS. Provably so. Unmodified, regional surface temperature charts from all over the world show it was just as warm in the Early Twentieth Century as it is today, and that’s just one example of warmer periods in our past.
OK let’s see if you can provide what you are saying Tom.
Have you got a an unmodified temp chart for Asia that shows what you are saying? Or Australia, or England, maybe Japan? My understanding is that the unmodified charts show more warming than the modified. And that none of them show any part of the 20th century were warmer than today. Certainly not the global ones. And please stick to the recognised ones. Not the ones in the back of some hillbillies shed.
“Have you got a an unmodified temp chart for Asia that shows what you are saying? Or Australia, or England, maybe Japan?”
Yes, I do. I’ve shown them a hundred times here. You’ve seen them. Yet you pretend you have not. Why is that? Are you being disengenuous, or are you just in denial?
Just one Tom… Can I choose? Lets see? An unaltered global temp chart for the 20th century?
You’ll have to settle for an unmodified regional chart, Simon.
Oh Tom you seem to have gone quiet……. I wonder why?
It’s not because I don’t have what I said I have, and you know it.
As I said, you have seen the Tmax charts I’m referring to on numerous occasions, yet you pretend you have not.
I’ll show them to you in a few days, when I get around to recovering a harddrive. Then you won’t have anything to say, just like all the other times i have shown you these charts. You have no answer.
Your comeupance will come. Be patient.
Here you go, Simon.
Tmax
U.S.
Australia
As you can see, it was just as warm in the Early Twentieth Century, as it is today, and this was the case all over the world where temperature readings were recorded.
So this means CO2 had added no additional warming to the atmosphere since that time, at least not enough to measure, and this means we have no need to bankrupt ourselves trying to regulate CO2.
And more.
Tmax
Norway
India
And I have a lot more where those come from.
I ran across this little tidbit while looking for charts.
“RAH… Here’s what Wigley wrote to Phil Jones about “correcting” SSTs…
At 06:25 28/09/2009, Tom Wigley wrote:
“Phil, Here are some speculations on correcting SSTs to partly explain the 1940s warming blip. If you look at the attached plot you will see that the land also shows the 1940s blip (as I’m sure you know). So, if we could reduce the ocean blip by, say, 0.15 degC, then this would be significant for the global mean — but we’d still have to explain the land blip.”
The “blip” in the late 1930s was a positive northern hemisphere anomaly of 0.6°C. Look at Figure A.6 from the 1975 NAS report “Understanding Climatic Change”: A program for action.”
So here we have Phil Jones and crony conspiring to distort the temperature profile of the globe.
We are being lied to, people. This lie is doing untold damage to our societies, making us think CO2 is somehow a danger to us. It’s not.
What do you have to say now, Simon?
Simon has nothing to say. I’m not surprised.
Great job of compilation. 100% of climate scientists agree that during periods in the past (recent to long ago) the globe was significantly warmer than today (roughly 99% of the last 230,000,000 years).
And yet here we are, not extinct. The biosphere did not melt, the seas did not boil, the Catastrophic End of All Life didn’t happen. In fact, the Earth and her denizens got along quite nicely.
Warmer was better. Warmth was not a problem. The entire edifice of CAGW is built on the false fabrication of fear over a possible happenstance with ample precedence that would be beneficial to life should it occur.
Maybe this is OT for this thread but…I was wondering if someone could explain the validity, or lack thereof of infilling temperatures. I drove home from my GFs house this AM. Fifteen miles over major paved roads, mostly rural. The (Fahrenheit) temperature began at 2 degrees, dropped to minus 7, rose again to plus 1, and ended at minus 9. Fifteen miles and that much variation. This is the typical range every morning. The total elevation variance is about 100 feet. Can anyone explain then how infilling can possibly be valid or useful?
” 105 More Non-Global Warming/Non-Hockey Stick Temperature Records Added To The Database In 2021 ”
They are authored by a fringe minority that is holding unacceptable views…
So what.
The science is settled. NO DISCUSSION ALLOWED, minds such as Mann’s are firmly closed.
My own estimate for the Holocene Optimum in NW Canada Arctic coast (Tuktuyaktuk) is +4-6°C above present Ts.The fairly large white spruce in the picture, still rooted, is dated at 5000ybp. It is 100km S to reach the present treeline and another couple of hundred km further S where living white spruce of this size live today. Considering Arctic enhancement of double global anomaly figures. It suggests Global avg T of 2-3°C warmer than today, with no tipping points in sight!
I’ve shown this photo to a number of believers in CAGW before asking them if they really believe temperatures are higher now than at any time in the recent past. Without exception, they go quiet.
“Arctic Siberia was 3.5 to 5°C warmer than today during the peak of the last glacial”
The MBH papers dont go back anywhere near that far! The last glacial? Oh come on!
These papers are interesting, but only those showing a warmer MWP are Hockey Stick busting.