Due to unforeseen trials and tribulations of life, weather, geography, and health, we will be a few weeks late announcing and publishing the essay contest winners.
Feel free to use this post as an open thread.
Essay Contest Results Delayed a Bit-And Open Thread
I found a strong correlation between the greening of earth and warming.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/01/28/scientists-and-media-outlets-increasingly-scolded-and-pressured-to-blame-extreme-weather-on-humans/#comment-3442715
Anyone interested in discussing it here?
Let me copy and paste that comment about the correlation between warming and greening here:
Sara,
I like your jokes. But this is no joke. This is serious:
Arjan asked me (on the Dutch blog)
Henry, can you quantify the warming due to greening?
Henry says:
Arjan, you hit the hammer on the nail. I also first thought that it might not be significant.
Here is the abstract from the report from John Christy et al from 2006:
The debiased segments are then merged, forming a complete regional time series. Time series of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for stations in the irrigated San Joaquin Valley (Valley) and nearby non-irrigated Sierra Nevada (Sierra) were generated for 1910–2003. Results show that twentieth-century Valley minimum temperatures are warming at a highly significant rate in all seasons, being greatest in summer and fall (> +0.25°C decade−1). The Valley trend of annual mean temperatures is +0.07° ± 0.07°C decade−1. Sierra summer and fall minimum temperatures appear to be cooling, but at a less significant rate, while the trend of annual mean Sierra temperatures is an unremarkable −0.02° ± 0.10°C decade−1. A working hypothesis is that the relative positive trends in Valley minus Sierra minima (>0.4°C decade−1 for summer and fall) are related to the altered surface environment brought about by the growth of irrigated agriculture, essentially changing a high-albedo desert into a darker, moister, vegetated plain.
So:
0.09 + 0.65 + 0.18 +0.5 / 4 = 0.36K/decade.
This is 300% of the warming reported by Spencer &….. But obviously, we only looked at a few areas where we know that it became a lot greener.
Amazing, is it not?
Yes you would Henry – about 6,000 years too late.
OK, maybe the other way around..
The thing to notice is how the Holocene Warm Period came to a very abrupt end at exactly the same time the Sahara Desert came into being
The answer is below yours, mine and everybody’s feet.
Where there are living plants, there are masses of dead and decomposing plants in the top 6, 12, 20 or 30 inches of soil/dirt.
And all that cellulose and lignin clings onto epic amounts of water and that water clings onto and stores epic amounts of water.
The most significant effects of that are a lowering of the Lapse Rate due to the humidity that it and the plants create but also that that water keeps you warm at night.
Just like a hot water bottle you might take to bed with you.
Henry, keep beating the drum that says “Water controls climate”
That climate starts under all ours feet and not up in the sky.
What sort of bizarre physics – physics that violate both Entropy and the 2nd Law – physics that says that a warming troposphere does NOT mean a cooling Earth
Peta
All that you say and have said so far makes sense. Pity that no one has ever investigated this before. However, I just want to check with you or anyone. I can see from the report by Christy et al 2006 that the heat is most predominantly trapped during the night in the seasons when growth is at max.
I vaguely remember from my biology class that there are two reactions concerning plant life.
The one takes place during the day, under the influence of UV. Apparently this reaction is endotherm.
The other reaction (with CO2) takes place during the night – this is when the sugars are made and growth takes place. I believe this reaction is exotherm.
I think it is the latter reaction that does most of the trapping of heat during the night.
Peta, are you mixing cause and effect?
just wondering- how do you get the comment number to add to the article link- to link just to the comment?
There is a comment link for every comment in the right hand top corner. It looks like a skew 8.
There is a comment link for every comment in the right hand top corner. It looks like a skew 8.
If you click on it, it automatically copies the link to the clip board. Then you just paste it where you want it.
duh… got it- thanks
We had a discussion the first time you posted this. Your problem is that you didn’t like what most of the people had to say about your idea.
Is this the 5th or the 6th time you’ve pulled this stunt. Give it up.
MarkW
You and your ilk did not have anything constructive except to say that you (I) cannot tell the climate where to warm and where not. So I am telling you that I can predict where the climate will get warmer and where it will cool.
Need hep finding the question mark key on your keyboard? Or is your “Is this” a typo where you meant to say “This is” instead? And could you prove there were four or five prior “stunts,” if your reputation depended on it?
Russel, I think it was only on Willis’ post and I did that to just let Willis know about my findings. Never mind MarkW. Just ignore.
To those who insist on seeking out the truth, on speaking the truth, whatever the consequences, who give a forum for truth,
Thank you.
right- too bad Socrates didn’t have such a forum, so he had to kill himself
I wish some people using this forum would kill themselves. Figuratively, people, figuratively!
Across the world the words have changed, but the game remains the same.
a rather unattractive guy who ranted about the glories of the blond, blue eyed Teutonic master race
His mother loved him.
How can you be sure?
Did your mother love you, Clyde?
Money, as well as power, can play that keyboard. Rich Leftists (e.g. Soros and his ilk) predominately play that keyboard.
Is it too late to enter the contest? I never saw an announcement.
just look at the image at the top right of every screen for this blog
Another thing I keep banging on about (apologies for the length of the post):
This coming year 300,000 children will die, not because of climate change, because of a lack of clean water.
Turn on the tap in developed countries and instantly there is a flow of clean, parasite-free, we take water for granted.
We are so used to our abundant water, many people turn on the tap to brush their teeth and leave the tap running. We water our gardens, wash our cars, brew beer, and play in our swimming pools without acknowledging this easy access to freshwater is a luxury.
In some parts of the world, safe water is not so easy to access.
The figures make for stark reading.
According to the World Health Organisation:
Diarrhoea is mostly preventable and yet we waste billions of dollars every year “fighting” climate change, arguably a fight that has only claimed energy-poor victims. Not a single person has on their death certificate “Cause of Death: Climate Change”.
The demand for more money to fight climate change has risen inexorably to the extent we are projected to spend trillions of dollars on a non-issue, whilst the annual cost of a genuine, fixable issue providing clean, safe water is estimated at $22.6 billion.
I accept recorded temperatures are rising. I don’t accept the mild warming we are experiencing in some parts of the world will be anything but benign.
Our species was born in Africa, only migrating out of Africa around 60,000 years ago when the climate became dryer and colder. We seek warmth, which is unsurprising since we are essentially hairless apes.
My issue with recorded global temperatures being lumped together on an annual basis and presented as a catastrophic road to hell is, I don’t think there is a global average temperature. I’m not even sure if there is a local average temperature. There are local average daytime temperatures and average nighttime temperatures for days, weeks, and possibly months of the year. The concept of a single global average temperature for a whole year seems far-fetched to me.
A global average temperature is a complete red-herring.
Helping the clean water impoverished millions is a relatively cheap and easy task compared with “fighting” climate change, a fight only nature will win.
Climate change doesn’t kill 300,000 children annually.
So why aren’t we doing it?
“So why aren’t we doing it?”
Isn’t Bill Gates working on this?
Bill gates:
All people want is clean water
What the Gates Foundation is doing is giving money to companies to experiment
Companies such as One Foundation are digging wells
For those of us who drink bottled water, simply switching our bottles to One Water helps saves lives
I don’t remember the details, but didn’t some nut doctor in the NW U.S. or SW Canada put (or advocate putting) “climate” on death certificates during the recent warming spell?
Yeah, I remember that too – politically motivated doc
Know what helps getting clean water to people? A good consistent supply of electrical power. Coal , natural gas and nuclear power plants. If these were being built in these undeveloped places, electricity, good jobs, and healthier people would all follow.
Well said
With the added benefit that people have jobs and children’s time is freed up. Instead of walking miles for fresh water, they can get educated
Win-Win 🙂
Because denying clean water, refrigeration, and clean cooking fuels will continue to reduce the population of the types of people we don’t want too many of, to paraphrase Justice Ruth Bader-Ginsburg, while inventing a crisis allows the elite to control the masses with bogeymen, a process that is inevitably lucrative for the myth makers.
How do you propose to make us rich selling basic plumbing to deplorable brown people, Redge? Will there be subsidies so that we make money even when water isn’t being used? There seems to be a much higher return on investment wrecking grid stability with bird choppers.
Similarly with the cholera angle. Wouldn’t it be more profitable to invent a patentable pill that costs $1000 a dose than to spend that money on a well and cannibalize the market for cholera treatments?
Ideally the government will buy our pills and we can outsource the production to Viet Nam or something.
Am I cynical? Perhaps a tinch.
Nope, realistic
“Turn on the tap in developed countries and instantly there is a flow of clean, parasite-free, we take water for granted.”
Isn’t Flint, Michigan in a developed country? I started distilling my drinking water when we got a “boil water” warning in Calgary some decades back. And aside from killing Giardiasis, distilling water gives one very solid evidence of what else is in the water whenever one cleans out the boiler.
When I butchered my first elk and learned about liver flukes, I also stopped drinking from ‘pristine’ mountain streams except when I could filter the water. I’ve known all sorts of very experienced back country hikers who don’t know that you can get both Giardiasis and liver flukes from the most pristine mountain streams.
The main problem with polluted drinking water is consumer ignorance. I spent some time in Zurich, Switzerland a few years ago. And not having a distiller handy, I went to a pharmacy to buy some distilled water. They wanted a fortune for a pint, and when I told them I was looking for something affordable as drinking water, they told me that distilled water is toxic!
I’ve had a celebrated tea “expert” tell me that distilled water is not as good as Montreal tap water to bring out the tea’s taste. I would have liked to give him a bit of my distiller residues to mix in his teacup.
There are more affordable/accessible ways to filter water effectively than distillation, but the essential element is knowledge, first of the dangers the local water supply represents, and secondly how to neutralize them. Putting your faith in higher authorities gives you Flint, Michigan.
The UK Mail online-the worlds largest circulation online paper-has got the story (at last) on the Canadian truckers with lots of photos.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10456147/Justin-Trudeau-flees-secret-location-50-000-Freedom-Convoy-truckers-hit-Ottawa.html
I expect the BBC will have a 1 hour documentary on it tonight. Naw, only joking
tonyb
The BBC has an article mentioning “dozens of truckers” causing problems in Ottawa! They really are the masters of misinformation and fake news! Just too stupid for words!!!
Yep 1,667 dozen to be more precise.
Ottawa will be very interesting. People have come from far and wide to make their voices heard. It’s a giant game of chicken; can the people inflict pain on themselves without a paycheck?
Speaking of Canada, what do the Montreal Canadiens and the Titanic have in common?
They are both at the bottom of the Atlantic.
(Hockey fans will understand)
WOW!
On Radio 4 around 30 mins ago, the BBC mentioned the F-word hinting UK fracking should be reconsidered!
Was I still dreaming?
I am impressed anyone is still able to stomach listening to the BBC and the Radio 4 morning moanathon too. Redge we salute you! As for fracking, the Luddites don’t intend to allow any positive energy extraction to take place so talking is about as far as the BBC will allow.
How any government can ignore domestic energy supplies and instead mandate importation of those very same energy resource is just mind blowing stupidity.
lol
Look at New York State. We have gas and could frack instead of importing our gas from Texas or wherever and be energy independent (maybe)
Support Joe Rogan against the old hippies for censorship
Yeah, Rockin’ in the not free to express an opinion at all world Neil.
Rogan: “If you’re a healthy person, and you’re exercising all the time, and you’re young, and you’re eating well…like, I don’t think you need to worry about this.”
…he added “that the argument that young people need the vaccine for other people made sense, but that’s a different argument,”
Why would you throw your bandana out of the pram over such an innocuous, and frankly widely held opinion?
What a dumb way of thinking.
Imagine if Neil Young (76) now dies of covid, he’d become a saint for the authoritarian left.
I bet one or two of C, S and N may be looking forward to that
It was known from the very beginning that these “vaccines” could prolong the pandemic, in other words make matters worse.
https://redwave.press/it-was-all-there-in-the-eua-why-couldnt-they-see-it/
Neil Young now looks like an old drunk sleeping in the street. Rather disgusting.
a few music big shots don’t represent all the old hippies- most old hippies never heard of Joe Rogan or Spotify- or if they have heard of him, they probably like him since he’s very likeable- I speak from being an old hippy – Spotify is mostly about a young crowd who probably never heard of Neil Young, etc. Since Spotify paid Rogan 100 million dollars, they don’t mind losing Neil Young, etc.
I happen to like Rogan- he’s quite the mix of macho but smart- not intellectual- but smart in a street sense- I think the majority of the public like that combination, far more than dweebs like Bill McKibben and other climatistas. I never heard of Rogan a year ago- but after he started interviewing UFO folks I started watching him- now I watch most of his videos. It’s good entertainment.
“a few music big shots don’t represent all the old hippies”
They don’t represent me. And I’m not taking my catalogue off of Spotify
since this is an open thread and anything goes- tell us about your catalogue or give a link
I wondered how you got your name, mate
Yes, please explain then name!
That’s not for me to explain, Rich, I’ll leave that to Fretslider
Against an old man looking at his life, alot like many other old hippies.
No matter what Health Problems you may have (or have but don’t know about), follow Linus Pauling’s lead, example, research results and work.
i.e. Munch down at least 2 grams ## per day of Vitamin C – divided into multiple small doses taken at no more that 2 hourly intervals
## Synthetic Vitamin C, as bought in supermarkets is perfectly good but it contains, is made of, equal amounts of ‘cis’ and ‘trans’ Vitamin.
Only one of those actually works inside of us. That is totally No Problem but if you are really poorly with something, bear it in mind.
Up to 20 grams per day has no effect on anybody
But do it even if you feel ‘perfectly fine’ The constant low-dose regime builds resilience in your immune system and lets it do all sorts of ‘little housekeeping jobs‘ – so that if ‘something big’ comes along, you’re ready for it.
But do it especially if you have had any major dental work done – and that includes extractions of ‘big teeth’ such as wisdoms. Bits get left behind and they rot inside your gums without you ever knowing. In doing so, they inject a constant trickle of shit & bad bacteria into your bloodstream.
Sufficient Vitamin C ‘takes care‘ of them
Seriously. Really really seriously.
Bad Teeth Cause Heart Attacks
edit to PS
Vitamin C is The Major Anti-Oxidant. As such, it clears up the mess made when sugar molecules (Glucose) do as is their want = behave like little sticks of dynamite inside us in all sorts of places where they can do, they do do, very serious damage.
This will be permanent damage when they smash up nerve cells.
Vitamin C contains the blast and catches the shrapnel
He’s quite a remarkable man. I have a book with his autograph sitting on my desk at work (under a bottle of vitamin C).
apparently not everyone agrees with Pauling, who lived to be 93
https://www.vox.com/2015/1/15/7547741/vitamin-c-myth-pauling
I don’t trust what anybody says about health. I think the best thing is just common sense- to have variety in your diet, clean water, no cigaretts, only modest alcohol at most, some exercise and don’t do anything really stupid, like drive recklessly or pick fights with bigger guys built like Joe Rogan. :-}
Aristotle, Plato, Buddha, and even Christ advocated moderation. Do you think that maybe they were on to something?
Epicurus also, ‘an anonymous Epicurean who summed up Epicurus’ philosophy on happiness in four simple lines:
Don’t fear god,
Don’t worry about death;
What is good is easy to get, and
What is terrible is easy to endure’ (Wiki).
I see this whole “megadose of Vit. C” fad is back with the ChiCom/WuFlu pandemic scare. No science involved, but some guy living to 93 is proof positive. If I make it to 93 (currently looking as a possibility) I guess that years of heavy smoking, excessive drinking and womanizing is proof that you can make it to 93 if you do the same early in your lifetime.
Pauling was something of a genius. He got part way to the structure of DNA from theoretical chemistry, without the benefit of X-ray crystallography. So I take his recommendations about vitamin C very seriously. Didn’t stop me catching covid though. Perhaps it would have killed me if I hadn’t been doing the vitamin C thing, instead of which it just nearly killed me.
I have a hypothesis that ingesting vitamin C (which after all is an acid) lowers the pH of the fluid in your mucous membranes, making them less hospitable to viruses. I offer no evidence, but I point out that folk remedies for respiratory infections that rely on lemon juice, might also help by reducing your pH. Vitamin C’s anti-oxidant property is therefore (in my hypothesis) a completely different health benefit from its infection-fighting function.
Not sure if fertilizer prices or market prices for soybeans meant fewer acres of corn planted in my neck of the woods last year, central Iowa. It was obvious there were many more acres in beans, more than I’ve ever seen before. Knowing Nat Gas is used for producing Nitrogen fertilizer, can the Green Blob not see how much worse agriculture would fare if atmospheric CO2 was at pre-industrial levels?
Farming Insider Warns The Coming Food Shortages Are Going To Be Far Worse Than We’re Being Told | ZeroHedge
No, they can’t see it.
You could not make this up:
Headline:”Concerns over food shortages as CO2 deal ends
From BBC
iow: They have thrown money at a problem that they themselves created and now realised that the money is rapidly drying up.
Attempts to fill the void via new taxes are gonna see an election soon, with Heads On Spikes across Westminster Bridge
Poor old Boris, only been wed a few months and now thoughts of Unreasonable Behaviour are filling the head of his Princess
She’s late to the party, those thoughts have been filling the whole of the UK just after the pair of them moved into #10
Science Is Dead, Politics Are Dead and The World Really Has Gone Mad
More money coming soon. However, reduced crops this year because fertiliser is too expensive/in short supply will be unavoidable.
“Attempts to fill the void via new taxes are gonna see an election soon, with Heads On Spikes across Westminster Bridge”
Might be a good time to buy stock in companies making pitchforks.
Companies making yellow vests. You are so old-fashioned.
well as you can see- me and the little woman are prepared
You would be better prepared clothed in yellow vests and holding AR15s.
I was marveling this morning how the news threads, MSNBC in this case, are more bizarre than the dreams I woke from. Anybody for some Mencken?
Been there, done that and got the Jolly Roger T-shirt (metaphorically speaking). I mistrust everything coming from government, big corporations, media and NGOs. They are all selling the same Leftist-inspired crap.
Much is said about the global climate models. Are the models good for anything? Not for diagnosis or prediction of the impact of rising concentration of CO2 or other GHGs, in my view. But for generalized motion and properties of the atmosphere, a reanalysis model helps us see something very important.
How much energy is stored between us and space? How much change does it experience hour by hour?
The ERA5 reanalysis data is available for an impressive range of computed values on a 1/4 degree x 1/4 degree grid. ERA5 is a product of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).
For all of 2019, by hour, here is a time series plot of the Vertical Integral of Total Energy for a gridpoint near where I live in upstate NY. I have expressed the vertical axis in Watt-hours per square meter. Total Energy includes the latent heat of water vapor, kinetic energy, internal energy, and potential energy due to altitude.
See the point? The static warming effect experienced at the surface looking toward space of a doubling of CO2 concentrations since pre-industrial times is taken to be about 3.7 W/m^2. One can use the online MODTRAN model to confirm a similar value. This static effect can be expressed as 3.7 Watt-hours per hour per square meter. It is vanishingly thin in these plots in respect to the total value and in respect to the rapid changes in both directions. In other words, the atmosphere is obviously not static, and the effect of its dynamic operation is huge as experienced over a location on the surface.
So what? As I see it, the entire modeling effort which attempts to diagnose and predict the impact of CO2 emissions must assume this tiny incremental static effect can be isolated for computed analysis all the way from the surface to space through the huge, rapidly changing storehouse of energy in the atmosphere.
I’m not buying it.
Replying to my own comment to add a similar plot of just the latent energy of water vapor. Same point.
“Feel free to use this post as an open thread.”
I suggest having an open thread each week- so that we’ll be less likely go off topic.
Go ahead and say it. The real reason that the essay contest is being delayed is due to climate change. Just another casualty.
Based on my experience at WUWT and elsewhere I sense a pattern.
A cabal of high powered/profile PhDs (e.g. Pierrehumbert, Mann, Cook, Orestes, et. al.) with various agendas ‘splain w handwavium/hocus/pocus/jibber-jabber/jargon how on a quantum/molecular level GHGs uniquely trap/absorb/”back” radiate thereby “warming” the terrestrial surface.
There are not but three people on Earth who actually understand this scenario and the cabal and I are not among them.
So, who’s going to challenge them?
It’s back to first principles.
A Watt is power not energy, 3.6 kJ/SI h or 3.412 Btu/Eng h.
As far as the 1,368 W/m^2 ISR is concerned the Earth is a 6,371 km radius pin head disc with a cross sectional area of 1.27516E+14 m^2.
A total of 6.27991E+17 kJ/h bathe the Earth. That’s a considerable amount.
The 0.04% of the atmosphere that constitutes GHG molecules relatively speaking might gather up about as many of those kJ as a bee fart in hurricane.
And just where from do the GHGs get this magic “extra” energy in the first place?
From the terrestrial surface upwelling “extra” LWIR energy as a S-B black body which I have explained and demonstrated by experiment simply is not possible.
Legends in their own mind, all.
Nick back at the crank handle. Some things never change, despite evidence to the contrary.
Evidence?
Got some?
BTW the Earth is cooler w atmos/albedo/GHGs not warmer.
Disaster-de-jour from the Grauniad – all the birds are dying!!
Birds are remarkable and beautiful animals – and they’re disappearing from our world | Kim Heacox | The Guardian
Yes they need click-bait and they need donations, but seriously!?
This one will all too soon be an albatross round their necks.
There is a strong correlation between killed birds and wind turbines.
Over the past 6 or 7 years I have consistently maintained that the Control Knob for Earth’s climate is simply the amount of SO2 aerosols circulating in our atmosphere. I have provided links to my work which, prove my contention, but it is continually ignored, with long discussions on the effects of CO2, , back-radiation, possible natural effects, others hypotheses, etc. etc
This being an open thread, could someone please explain why a falsifiable(empirically testable) and validated “model” is totally ignored? Even Anthony will not print any of my efforts, the most recent being “Climate Change Deciphered”
It totally negates CAGW, which is causing much misery around the world in efforts to control its effects.
More Than 90% Of Scientists Agree
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZEmRLUFww8
another good one by Tony Heller- one of his best
I look forward to numerous geriatric rock stars cancelling Paul Ehrlich for spreading false information.
Here’s my submitted essay:
https://ptolemy2.wordpress.com/2021/11/13/climate-pandemonium/