By Andy May
It’s official, the IEA believes that coal-powered electricity generation will rise 9% in 2021 to an all-time high, once the final numbers are in. For the details see their new report here. It is not paywalled.
The rise is driven by China and India, these countries account for two-thirds of global coal consumption. The IEA expects coal use in China and India to grow dramatically in 2022 driving global consumption to a new record of 8,025 million tonnes. They also expect coal production to plateau after 2022, but they always predict that. The problem is renewable energy growth cannot keep pace with global electricity demand growth. Possibly, natural gas production and nuclear could, but will it happen?
In 2021, coal production worldwide failed to keep pace with exploding demand due to financing and regulatory restrictions, causing Newcastle coal futures to rise from less than $100/tonne in January 2021 to over $250/tonne in October 2021. Currently they are $203/tonne. Rising prices should stimulate more coal production, we’ll see. The pressure on governments to limit coal mining and the pressure on banks to limit lending to coal companies is high.
Coal power generation also increased in the U.S. and Europe, but these increases were small and not expected to last. The growth in China and India is what is driving coal markets around the world. China’s share of global coal consumption was 53% in 2020, and India’s was 12%, since their use of coal is rising significantly, declines in the rest of the world don’t matter much. See Figure 1.
Given the large number of people in the world that have no reliable source of electricity, it seems more likely that coal use will continue to increase, the declines in the U.S. and Europe are tiny in comparison. However, the desire to move away from coal is likely to increase demand and prices for natural gas, and it may spur the construction of more nuclear power plants. One thing is clear, the future is not in wind and solar.
Worldwide coal production declined about 5% in 2020, with large declines in the United States and the European Union. China accounted for about 50% of the total production. Coal production should increase about 5% in 2021, once the final numbers are in. Coal stocks are depleted and will need to be replenished, especially in China, which suffered energy shortages over the past year. So, Chinese production should increase in 2022, but it is not expected to keep up with growth. As a result, Chinese imports of coal will increase, driving up coal prices. Production should set an all-time record for the year. Coal production is expected in increase rapidly in India, see Figure 2.
When will the unreliable renewable energy lobby fight back and reject subsidies for profit and get those installations producing more electricity?
sarc.
When the omniscient ones pull their airheads in and it might finally be happening-
Ricky Gervais says public are sick of ‘virtue-signalling’ celebrities (msn.com)
I love Ricky’s comedy- but he’s not currently just another bloke (I live that Brit word) complaining about the rich and woke – I read somewhere he’s now worth about $90 million bucks. Not that I have a problem with that. With him and Bill Maher dumping on the woke- a lot of people are noticing.
get into king Coal
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal
up 25% on month
up 250% on year
Biden promises to invest in 100 yard long propellers.
Peabody Energy in 2020 at $1.20 in November, when I bought Exxon at $35. It was a better deal, but who knew? Anyway, energy is still a good buy, the banks and governments are going to have to stop whipping them at some point or we will all be freezing in the dark.
In the USA, the limitations on drilling drove up natural gas prices and made the economics of burning coal for electric generation much more favorable, even with the rise in coal prices. Guess what? This also increases CO2 emissions. Unintended (and stupid) consequences from people that have no idea of what they are doing. God help us if they figure it out.
I wonder if we will see governments of coal supply countries start hoarding coal?
In Australia they stopped an unvaccinated person from playing tennis….tennis.
The latest news is that he is cleared to play.
Did he clear the Victorian Government 1 minute diagnostic test?
https://newcatallaxy.blog/2022/01/08/maters-mischief-7-weve-been-tasting-it-for-nearly-two-years/#comments
The latest on this is that Novax seems to have made a false declaration on his entry form by claiming he had not travelled in the 2 weeks prior to his arrival in Melbourne. That claim is at odds with dated images in his social media accounts.
Potential penalties for lying on an immigration entry form range from deportation, denial of reentry for 3 years, imprisonment for 12 months, or execution by hanging. OK, delete that last one, we don’t do that any more. But border officials don’t like being lied to.
Some people have even suggested that him getting the virus on 16 Dec was remarkably convenient. Lying about the results of a self-adminstered quick covid test? Really?
Get ready to see him booted for not meeting conditions of entry into Australia..unvaxxed and false declaration about travel as well. The USA would do exactly the same thing.
It had nothing do do with being unvaccinated. He should have been allowed because he’d already had covid. It was all about whether his visa was valid. It turned out that the heavy-handed border force (a law unto themselves) illegally interviewed and detained him before he could contact his lawyer as requested, so the judge let him go.
Is it true that a Ministry head can overrule the court based on his “discretion?” If so, Australia has an interesting judicial system.
It isn’t a judicial system matter the minister has the right to refuse or allow a person to enter the country at his/her discretion. It isn’t a matter of justice it is the powers that have always been reserved by the minister. Few Australian have issues with it because if you write a law people can push the envelope and then the decision is left up to judge lotto as it is a sole judge ruling and then endless appeals.
Given the build up refugees seeking to enter the USA southern borders Biden and Harris might actually like those powers 🙂
Biden, as POTUS, has that power. Several lefty judges blocked TRUMP! from using that power, and eventually were slapped down by the SCOTUS.
A fact for which I’m exceedingly grateful. Our immigration to Australia was blocked for 10 years because my wife is disabled. After every avenue was closed (a requirement for the appeal), we appealed to the minister, and he let us have permanent residency.
The Federal Court Judge decided to allow the tennis player to enter Australia overturning an Immigration decision to deport him on procedural grounds, not that he complied with requirements to enter Australia.
The procedural error was Border Force Officers not providing the player with sufficient time to seek legal advice given the time of day that he was interviewed at the airport after he arrived.
That isn’t what is being discussed it is the discretionary power of the minister. You can do everything right and a judge rule in your favor and you can still be deported by the minister. That is the way the Australian system works the minister has the absolute say.
I wonder what the “emminent” Doctors said? “He has had it once- he can’t get it again”. “Oops, he has had it twice and cannot get it again”.
“He abides by COVID protocols and only mingled with children etc when positive”
Photographs and other images of him out and about in public at home at the time he claims to have been required to quarantine are now emerging. When his mother was talking to a media gathering she was asked to explain and she immediately shut the meeting down and left.
Fully vaccinatedYou are considered to be fully vaccinated for travel to and from Australia if you have completed a course of a vaccine approved or recognised by the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA). This includes mixed doses. Current approved or recognised vaccines and dosages accepted for travel are:
The TGA is evaluating other COVID-19 vaccines that may be recognised for inbound travel to Australia in future.
At least 7 days must have passed since the final dose of vaccine in a course of immunisation for you to be considered fully vaccinated. Mixed doses count towards being fully vaccinated as long as all vaccines are approved or recognised by the TGA.
If you have not been vaccinated with the above doses or schedule, you do not meet Australia’s definition of ‘fully vaccinated.’ This includes instances where the dosing schedule or vaccine eligibility differs in your country of origin. There are some exceptions to this as outlined below.
He got an exemption because he’d already had covid.
If you believe that the ‘vaccines’ are more effective than getting covid, you’ve been brainwashed by those seeking to profit massively from the fear that they themselves generate.
That’s not true at all. He has won a reprieve on a procedural technicality…he was not interviewed illegally, in fact he was accommodated more than any other and this is what ultimately got the govt into trouble. He was still entering illegally, unvaccinated and with no valid medical certificate and they have now found a false declaration on his entry card. He will go.
He was interviewed, and then detained, in the middle of the night before he could get to his lawyer, which he repeatedly requested. How is that accommodation?
He was given an exemption because he’d already had covid.
Border Force are bent out of shape for being called out, and are desperate to pin anything they can on him. They don’t care about safety, they care about being shown up, and are vindictive sons of bachelors.
People denied entry after arrival in any country are placed in detention and deported on the next available flight if they arrived by aircraft.
If the person wants to appeal against that Immigration decision they must remain in detention and now quarantine until their appeal can be processed, typically asylum seekers.
The fact is that a worldwide requirement for double vaccination and a certificate is required from international travellers, foreigners and citizens, in all countries. Decades ago when I began overseas travel we had a vaccination booklet because a number of different vaccinations were needed depending on country we were visiting.
He probably suffers from needle phobia (like a good proportion of anti-vaxxers). Pity.
Indonesia has ceased exports.
All international airports worldwide require a vaccination certificate with passport, and other entry requirements.
Don’t believe everything the media presents, I have followed this matter closely and especially foreign media, but also in Australia, sensationalism has pushed facts into the background.
Nope, who has the infrastructure to hoard coal??????
IEA just confirms what we already knew. As long as India and China won’t play ‘climate change’, all the COPXXs in the world will not matter. How distressing to the Greta Thunbergs of the world.
Good for Australian exports. Pity the US west coast loons won’t allow a Pacific US coal export terminal. Would be good business.
There is a very sizeable coal terminal on the West coast, just not in the US. It’s 30 miles south of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada and serves as gateway to the Indo-Pacific for all US coal mined in the Western US. Plus Canadian coal, of course.
Coal exports for both countries are fully signed for well into 2023.
Can it expand its capacity by much or is it maxed out?
Just waiting here for Griff to chime in on how we all need to do our part regardless of reality…
The Gretas of the world are not “distressed” by CO2 emissions from countries that would jail them for opening their fat mouths.
The pressure is for the “western democracies” to follow suit. The only issue is which statements will be illegal.
Good update. That’s the future … coal, gas/oil, and nuclear too.
Where is COP 2030 and do we need to order ahead for beverages and aircraft parking space?
Don’t jump too far ahead, the world may end before 2030.
Next party is COP 27 – – – 7-18 November 2022
Sharm el-Sheikh, South Sinai, Egypt
Assuming that coal is the ‘dirtiest’ fuel as Greta Thunberg might say i.e. the most emission intense, the trends shown in Figure 1 from rapid use growth 2000 – 2012 then leveling off 2012 – 2021 seem to have had no effect on the measured trend in the atmospheric CO2 concentration that is near enough to linear over the entire period.
I’m not inferring anything, it’s just an observation.
True about the Keeling curve.
BUT, there are variations in natural sources and sinks; like more Arctic ice means less Arctic sequestration. But, coal use is inexactly measured (steel, cement). And so on. All such numbers have a fair bit of uncertainty.
“All such numbers have a fair bit of uncertainty.”
Ain’t that the story of “climate science”? So much complexity- all the many variables with uncertainty- and you’ve got a real mess pretending to be settled science.
Is that a rainbow flag?
Take a bow, Joe Biden, and you too, Lurch, for what you’ve accomplished your first year in office . . . hint: world coal-powered electricity generation up 9%!
Oh, and I think you’ve both got some ‘splaining to do to your Paris Accord buddies as well to the diminished audience sure to be at COP27, assuming you both will use the opportunity to jet-in for some nice sightseeing and good food in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.
They’ve been so humbled by COP26 private jet traffic jams, they’ll all be going by high-speed, electric powered trains to Egypt’s COP27.
Maybe the IPCC will try pyramid sales?
Pyramid sales. A pyramid selling scheme is one in which goods or services are sold and the participants in the scheme receive payment or other benefit for introducing other people into the scheme as new participants. As each new participant is introduced to the scheme, the original participant moves further up the ‘pyramid’.
Glad to see that Egypt is firmly back in the global elitist d-bag circuit https://ritzcarlton.southsinaihotels.com/en/
Given the approach of the next big ice age, an increase in CO2 emissions from burning more coal should be welcomed.
Keep in mind that coal consists of buried plants from the past which were so covered by debris that they could not decompose naturally. That is what you get when a large meteor hits earth, as happened some 65 million years ago with the extinction of the dinosaurs. Every time this happens, the earth becomes more carbon-deficient and plant growth suffers because of the lack of CO2 in the atmosphere. Many coal deposits are significantly older than 65 million years and provide the best quality coal due to age.
Like fine wine?
Peter W
“Keep in mind that coal consists of buried plants from the past which were so covered by debris that they could not decompose naturally. That is what you get when a large meteor hits earth, as happened some 65 million years ago with the extinction of the dinosaurs.”
Any evidence for the above assertion? Reference? Yes, burial and prevention of oxidation are required but I know of no significant coal resource created by the end of Cretaceous meteorite event including no significant coal beds created by burial beneath the meteorite impact debris.
“Many coal deposits are significantly older than 65 million years and provide the best quality coal due to age.” What is the basis for this statement?
Yes, many coal beds are much older than 65 million years. The processes that happen over geologic time are the controlling factors for coal formation, not time, alone.
See Lecture 13, “The Physics of History” from The Teaching Company, given by Professor David J. Helfand of Columbia University, and use your brain to think about it. There is also a relatively recent scientific paper titled “Age of Coal.”
That’s it?
Yes.
Glad to hear it. More poor people getting affordable, clean energy, instead of using biofuels that are polluting and denude the countryside. And CO2 is fertilizer.
I keep hearing and reading that CO2 is “carbon pollution”.
sarc.
Given the large number of people in the world that have no reliable source of electricity, it seems more likely that coal use will continue to increase
Why? In the last 50 years coal has not provided electricity for those people – why would it now?
Griff, 1250 coal and gas power stations are planned for Africa in the next decade. Africa has just started to industrialise and this is just the beginning of the gigantic increase in coal use planned for the future.
Fossil fuels to dominate Africa’s energy mix this decade – report (powerengineeringint.com)
Griff, here is an article by the BBC which shows that fossil fuels are the future preferred power source in Africa. Since this comes from the BBC, it must obviously be true.
Climate change: Africa’s green energy transition ‘unlikely’ this decade – BBC News
So you think white people should dictate to Africans how they should source their energy?
Eco-colonialist!
Progress, Griffy-poo. Ever hear of it?
Why Now? Because China is willing to finance them now. There’s several reasons they feel in a better position to do that now, and western governments paying for solar panels with tax dollars is one of them.
For the same reason renewables haven’t either……..
You are such a dumb B.,.,.,d griff These countries in Africa have not had any electricity in many parts of their country side and towms because there has been little investment in power stations and power lines to outer districts .Go and have a look for your self and if you would like to live in those conditions emigrate .
“As of July 2021, China and the countries with the next five biggest pre-construction pipelines (India, Viet Nam, Indonesia, Turkey, and Bangladesh) account for over four-fifths of the world’s remaining pipeline. Action by these six countries could remove 82% of the pre-construction pipeline. The remaining pre-construction pipeline is spread across a further 31 countries, 16 of which have just one project.”
And in 2021 Vietnam, Turkey
And Bangladesh all announced large cancellations of new coal plant. Indonesia’s biggest utility has pledged to stop building new coal power plants beyond its current pipeline of projects.
New coal is being cancelled across the world: Japan, for example and there isn’t a single new coal plant in the pipeline in the EU now…
Coal ends with the current projects building for most of the world. As always with China – who knows?
Hmmm, yeah, the China thing is a problem isn’t it. Oh, and India Griff, don’t forget India – it’s that really large country south of China…sorry to burst your bubble…
“Coal ends with the current projects building for most of the world. As always with China – who knows?”
Who knows? Certainly not you, Griff.
These nations will continue to do what serves them best, while telling a few porkie-pies to palm-off the bellyaching Western greens.
Japan has plenty of new coal plants in its pipeline. Griff read a suggestion from NGO idiots and thought it counted as counted as official government policy.
Killing Coal
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78168/
How sad for the US with more proven coal reserves than any other country by far to be shutting down its coal burning power plants……the most reliable electricity generating source.
CO2 is well mixed in the global atmosphere, so China and India increasing their coal burning means that total global emissions don’t drop.
In a world where climate science was not hijacked that would make absolutely no sense.
However, in the world that we live in its totally by design. Kill fossil fuels in the western world and tell everybody its to save the planet….while the main environmental affect on the planet from burning fossil fuels has been a massive greening, while at the same time increasing food production by an amount that supports an extra 2 billion people when you include the fact that most nitrogen based fertilizer is produced using natural gas.
A lot of those reserves will evaporate because of the changed market conditions. Proven means economic at currently forecast prices. Deposits in the middle of the country will very likely be rendered uneconomic as domestic coal plants are shuttered and rail costs to access ports are too high.
Regulatory approval (or very likely to be approved) is also a requirement for proved reserves. This is a real issue going forward in many jurisdictions.
Well said Mike Maguire.
I used the coloured chart featured on the first page of world coal production in a presentation to our New Zealand’s government’s Zero Carbon Bill select committee hearings two years ago.
World coal production was stable at around 4,7 billion tonnes from 1999 until 2008 and methane atmospheric levels also flatlined over those 10 years ,since then methane levels have increased but are still under 2 pp million.
Our government wants to tax our live stock so that they look good to the elites of the world because of the methane they emit .For ten years methane levels flatlined so where was the problem with farmed livestock world wide .
There is a shortage of nitrogen fertilizer around the world and prices are rising but as you say Mike 2 billion more people are now being fed .
If the world runs out of nitrogen fertilizer there will be wide spread starvation and the anti frackers should get the blame.
These anti fossil fuel people do not have a clue how important the role of nitrogen fertilizer is in feeding the world.
EXCERPT from:
“BUILD BACK BETTER” WOULD COST $4.490 TRILLION OVER THE NEXT DECADE, IF PROVISIONS WERE MADE TO LAST 10 YEARS
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/build-back-better-would-cost-3-95-trillion-overt-the-next-decade
BBB Intended and Unintended Consequences
The BBB bill has a dual-purpose, 1) a society-transforming increase in social program spending, and 2) remaking the US energy sector. Democrats aim to use BBB to promote political patronage and transfers of wealth from lower- and middle-income taxpayers in red states, to upper middle-class and wealthy residents in blue states.
This approach is anything but progressive and likely would be reversed after the next election. See URL
BBB would:
1) Increase US energy costs, because of increased, already-generous subsidies (tax credits, rebates, grants) for:
– Unreliable, weather/wind/sun-dependent, variable/intermittent wind and solar energy, which would end up greatly increasing the costs of dealing with grid instabilities, as has happened in Germany, etc., which has the highest household electric rates in Europe. The increased subsidies largely would benefit wealthy, Democrat, coastal elites.
– Expensive/unaffordable/less-useful electric vehicles, that are known to surprise by catching fire, 2) perform poorly and have low efficiency in colder climates.
According to University of Chicago research, most of the $18 billion in federal income tax credits disbursed to date were used for, a) weatherization of U.S. households, b) residential net-metered solar that produces extremely expensive electricity, and c) electric vehicles, including wasteful government experiments with electric school and transit buses.
2) Provide a tax cut for higher-income households, in mostly high-tax, blue states, by increasing the state and local tax deduction (SALT) from $10,000 to $80,000
Regressive Natural Gas Tax, on Top of Gasoline Price Increases, on Top of High Inflation
At a time when the Biden administration is panicking in an attempt to keep energy prices down, the US House has slapped a BBB “fee”, aka “stealth tax”, on natural gas and everyone who uses it.
The BBB bill results in an “escalating tax on methane emissions by oil and gas producers,” a new op-ed in the Wall Street Journal points out. The tax will hit $1,500 per ton by 2025, and the fee is supposed to be a contribution to recent promises made in Glasgow COP26 to curb methane emissions.
The cost of the fee will be passed along to the consumer, which will result in even higher energy prices than consumers are already struggling with. About 180 million Americans use natural gas for cooking and heating their homes, the report says.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated about 50% of US households that use natural gas will pay 30% more this winter, than last year. The methane tax would add another 17% on top of that.
The WSJ op-ed board calls it a “regressive tax” and states the “Department of Energy notes the average energy burden for lower-income families would be three times higher than for higher income households”.
The methane tax “exposes the contradiction at the heart of Democratic climate policy” and clearly violates President Biden’s promise not to raise taxes on those making less than $400,000 per year, the op-ed argues.
The op-ed concludes, once the methane tax is in place, it’ll be easy to increase it over time. Combined with new methane regulations, the cost of gas would increase even more.
The methane tax is “targeted, punitive, and will increase household gas bills,” the op-ed concludes.
Widespread Environmental Destruction due to BBB bill
If Biden’s $4.490-trillion BBB bill becomes law, there would be a vast amount of environmental devastation all over the US, including:
1) On hundreds of miles of pristine, 2,000-ft-high ridge lines, for mounting 500-ft high wind turbines, in New England. The video shows the massive destruction require to install 500-ft high wind turbines on ridge lines in New England.
2) On at least 100 square miles of New England meadow land for mounting solar systems, that would produce almost nothing for a few days, after a snow fall, and nothing from about 4 pm in winter, and 5 pm in summer, to about 9 am the next day. The video shows the massive destruction required to install a multi-MW solar system on a wooded area with wetlands.
Such destructions would be common-place, and would create huge turmoil among nearby people, all while China, India, etc., continue burning at least 8 billion metric ton of coal, each year, as agreed to during the Glasgow, COP26
If all of New England were to disappear, it would not make one bit of difference regarding global warming and climate change.
China consumes about 50% of the world’s coal consumption of about 8 billion metric ton
NOTE:
Warren Buffett Quote: “I will do anything that is basically covered by the law to reduce Berkshire’s tax rate,” Buffet told an audience in Omaha, Nebraska recently. “For example, on wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That’s the only reason to build them. They don’t make sense without the tax credit.”
This speaks to the remarkable staying power of coal, much to the both denial and dismay (they can’t decide which) of coal-haters. Despite the vicious, lie-spewing anti-coal campaign over the last decade or more, coal still keeps on, although certainly bedraggled and diminished. Perhaps a certain coughanchin future president will have the cajones to bring coal back, so that it is once again on a par with NG. Natural gas needs the competition.
I love coal and CO2
Having spent 30 years in the deep mined coal sector ensuring the lights remained on, reliably and affordably, it was a sad day when subsequent UK Governments closed the best energy industry in the world – now look at the mess they’re in!
long live King Coal
Historically economic theory relied on wars to eat up surplus productuon and prevent depression. Our lords and masters have now dreamed up a new strategy to get rid of the surplus. The green economy.
This is of course a terrible solution because it requires a large increase in fossil fuel usage to build the green economy,. An increase that otherwise not occur.
As such, the solution will simply make the problem worse. This prediction can be easily verified from total worldwide CO2 production. Otherwise countries will simply offset their CO2 production to other countries and claim a moral victory.
Coal and gas – it’s the future
the UK grid is currently running on 53% gas and 5% coal to keep the lights on