Guest “Are you now, or have you ever been, a member of the Renewable Energy Dogmatism Party?” by David Middleton
Renewable Energy Dogmatism Is Turning the World Red. Just Ask Ukraine and Taiwan
By Patrick Hynes
December 15, 2021In the current day and age, energy security is a prerequisite for national security. When America became energy independent in 2019, it freed us from the political whims of unstable countries. But dogmatic leftists across the world have made it clear that they will sacrifice energy security for their idea of necessary climate policy, seemingly undisturbed by the transfer of that security to communist and authoritarian regimes in China and Russia. As a result, the world might see a Red Revolution before it ever sees a Green one.
While in recent years the US has embraced its liquified natural gas (LNG) boom, European countries steered the other way, ramping down fossil fuel production and increasing their dependence on fossil fuel imports. They have justified this as a “necessary” sacrifice until solar and wind deployment catches up. They are seemingly unconcerned that Russia has become the EU’s largest supplier of fossil fuels, supplying around 40% of the EU’s LNG and coal.
This over-reliance on Russian gas has finally caught up with Europe in the form of a self-inflicted energy crisis. They now rely on Putin to save them through the winter.
[…]
Armed with this newfound political capital, Putin has wasted no time aiming for his most desired prize: Ukraine. A master of political chess, Putin has patiently waited for the right opportunity to continue what he started with Crimea in 2014. Europe’s energy crisis has presented that opportunity, as evident by the buildup of estimated 175,000 troops along the Ukraine border. Since he essentially has the power to turn off the lights this winter for many Western Europeans, he knows that NATO countries will think twice about helping Ukraine, and he is right.
For Taiwan, too, tensions are at an all-time high. Much like with Russia and Ukraine, China does not recognize Taiwan’s independence. The West does, but the West is interested in developing renewable energy, like wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicles. The manufacture of such goods requires rare earth minerals. The International Energy Agency estimates that in order to reach net-zero by 2050, “demand for rare earths, primarily used for making EV motors and wind turbines, increases by a factor of ten by 2030.”
Guess who controls nearly 70% of the world’s rare-earths market.
[…]
The West recognizes this issue — it’s far too dependent on China for renewable energy developments — but red tape and lack of expertise make it impossible to compete. Therefore, as the West goes all-in on renewable energy, it will be increasingly dependent on Chinese supply chains wrought with slave labor and carbon-intensive mining. It’s hard not to see Xi Jinping take this as an opportunity to expand China’s global dominance, starting with recapturing Taiwan.
[…]
If Democrats get their way, we’ll end up in the same position as Europe. China will control renewable supply chains, and Russia will control the fossil fuels needed as backup. Energy crises will be more frequent, especially if the weather becomes more erratic with global warming. And communism will spread globally like wildfire. Maybe that is what progressives want.
Patrick Hynes is a Young Voices contributor and an editorial associate at The Conservation Coalition. He also serves as chairman of the Libertarian Party of Washington, DC, and ran for DC’s Delegate to Congress in 2020. Follow him on Twitter @PatrickHynesDC
RealClearEnergy
If Putin seriously wants to seize Ukraine, this winter will probably be his best opportunity. With the US saddled with a dementia-ridden “president” and even less competent “vice president,” and a Congress controlled by left-wing zealots for at least the next 12 months, coupled with Putin’s ability to turn off Europe’s supply of natural gas on a whim, he is literally in the “catbird seat.” (Yes, I know I just wrote that Putin is literally in an idiomatic phrase.) That said, why would Putin risk triggering World War III? It’s not that there’s a long history of perceived weakness among Western democracies triggering wars in the past…
While we are heavily dependent on Red China for “renewable supply chains,” they are dependent on imported coal, LNG and oil. This might deter Red China from moving on Taiwan, unless they also militarily enforce the claim that the entire South China Sea is part of their territorial waters.
Red China’s claim was ruled invalid under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.
Beijing ignored the ruling.
What’s so important about the South China Sea?
This EIA analysis was published in 2013.
SOUTH CHINA SEA
Overview
The South China Sea is a critical world trade route and a potential source of hydrocarbons, particularly natural gas, with competing claims of ownership over the sea and its resources.
Stretching from Singapore and the Strait of Malacca in the southwest to the Strait of Taiwan in the northeast, the South China Sea is one of the most important trade routes in the world. The sea is rich in resources and holds significant strategic and political importance.
The area includes several hundred small islands, rocks, and reefs, with the majority located in the Paracel and Spratly Island chains. Many of these islands are partially submerged land masses unsuitable for habitation and are little more than shipping hazards. For example, the total land area of the Spratly Islands encompasses less than 3 square miles.
Several of the countries bordering the sea declare ownership of the islands to claim the surrounding sea and its resources. The Gulf of Thailand borders the South China Sea, and although technically not part of it, disputes surround ownership of that Gulf and its resources as well.
Asia’s robust economic growth boosts demand for energy in the region. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects total liquid fuels consumption in Asian countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to rise at an annual growth rate of 2.6 percent, growing from around 20 percent of world consumption in 2008 to over 30 percent of world consumption by 2035. Similarly, non-OECD Asia natural gas consumption grows by 3.9 percent annually, from 10 percent of world gas consumption in 2008 to 19 percent by 2035. EIA expects China to account for 43 percent of that growth.
With Southeast Asian domestic oil production projected to stay flat or decline as consumption rises, the region’s countries will look to new sources of energy to meet domestic demand. China in particular promotes the use of natural gas as a preferred energy source and set an ambitious target of increasing the share of natural gas in its energy mix from 3 percent to 10 percent by 2020. The South China Sea offers the potential for significant natural gas discoveries, creating an incentive to secure larger parts of the area for domestic production.
[…]
EIA
- “More than 30% of global maritime crude oil trade moves through the South China Sea” EIA
- “Almost 40% of global liquefied natural gas trade moves through the South China Sea” EIA
Note: Click to enlarge. Total includes small flows (less than 0.1 million barrels per day) not shown on map. EIA
Note: Click to enlarge. EIA
Control of the South China Sea would secure Red China’s oil & LNG imports and enable them to shut off the supply of oil & LNG to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
Among the US Navy’s primary missions are Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS), heavily focused on the South China Sea.
7th Fleet Conducts Freedom of Navigation Operation
08 September 2021
From U.S. 7th Fleet Public AffairsOn Sept. 8, USS Benfold (DDG 65) asserted navigational rights and freedoms in the Spratly Islands, consistent with international law. This freedom of navigation operation (“FONOP”) upheld the rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea. USS Benfold demonstrated that Mischief Reef, a low-tide elevation in its natural state, is not entitled to a territorial sea under international law.
[…]
U.S. forces routinely conduct freedom of navigation assertions throughout the world. All of our operations are designed to be conducted in accordance with international law and demonstrate that the United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows—regardless of the location of excessive maritime claims and regardless of current events.
The United States upholds freedom of navigation as a principle. The Freedom of Navigation Program’s missions are peaceful and conducted without bias for or against any particular country. These missions are rule-of-law based and demonstrate our commitment to upholding the rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea and airspace guaranteed to all nations.
Freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea are a part of daily operations of U.S. military forces throughout the region.
US Navy
The only forward deployed aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific, CVN 71 USS Theodore Roosevelt was knocked out of action by COVID-19, shortly after Red China unleashed it on the rest of the world… Coincidence?
Cue Shirley Bassey “That’s it’s all just a little bit of history repeating.”
While I seriously doubt that the two nations who suffered most horribly during World War II would intentionally start World War III, why does this remind me of the 1930’s? Substitute Russia for Nazi Germany and Red China for Imperial Japan, toss in a healthy dose of western weakness… and the similarities are eerie.
Anyway, I think it’s time for The Kinks...
‘Cause there’s a red, under my bed
Ray Davies, 1981
And there’s a little yellow man in my head
And there’s a true blue inside of me
“China does not recognize Taiwan’s independence. The West does….”
Really? I don’t think so. Almost every nation agrees Taiwan and The People’s Republic of China are one nation. In theory anyway.
Taiwan does not seem to think so.
Tibetans don’t seem to think the same about Tibet.
Oh, by your definition they are not nations….
Now I wonder what the Poles believed about their ‘nation’?
Its not my definition- America, Europe and most of the world OFFICIALLY have declared that there is only one China. It’s “de facto” independent if it can keep it.
ZZW
The Kuomintang (Nationalists) who ran the ROC from its inception until 2000 still hold to the One China Policy. The Democratic Progressive Party currently in power flirt with independence. The US and most other countries officially consider Taiwan to be a part of China just as the KMT does.
Tibet is a different case, more like imperialist oppression.
There is a difference between recognition of independence and recognition as a country and yes the article is misleading but so is your comment. At it’s core if your suggestion was true why would the USA defend something it didn’t believe.
Uh, LdB, as a citizen of the U.S. I don’t believe we are defending Taiwan as an entity separate from China. I believe the U.S. is saying we won’t accept force as a method for reunification. You know, human rights and all that.
We can see from the UK’s acceptance of China’s assurances related to the “reunification” with Hong Kong that the integration of Taiwan into the Chinese (ChiCom) mainland will proceed with the observation of basic human rights. Just ask the Uyghurs or the Tibetans.
This matter is spiny and tricky.
Accepting, for the sake of argument, your distinguishing “defending an entity separate” from “force as a method for reunification”.
In either case: what would/should the USA do: just declare its position on the matter or intervene (militarily or otherwise)? If the answer is the second: what makes the USA a nation “higher among equals” to allow it to take action on third parties just to uphold and guarantee the triumph of its ideas (having in mind that in this case there is historical long amd strong links between China and Taiwan, but none between USA and Taiwan)?
In other words: what is the meaning of the verb you used, “to accept“? Declare non-acceptance or opposing the move (by the use of power in whatever irs form)?
“having in mind that in this case there is historical long amd strong links between China and Taiwan,”
There are strong, historical ties between Japan and Taiwan, too.
President Carter opened the door for China to swallow up Taiwan.
Swallowing Taiwan may be harder and more problematic than the Chicoms think.
How many people will Xi’s ego cause to be killed? He appears to be like Joe Biden: No empathy for the little guy.
Biden can cause 25 million Afghans to starve to death and he doesn’t bat an eye. What’s the difference between Xi and Biden? I don’t see any. Both have a total disregard for innocent human life, when it doesn’t fit their political agenda.
There is a major difference. Xi is a brilliant man. a leader with a vision but still a dictator. Biden is an idiot, a demented one at that.
Wow, Joao. I guess U.S. intervention in WWII and the cold war was only to prove the U.S. was “higher among equals.” Could the “triumph of its ideas” might have something to do with universal ideas about the freedom of man?
Dave Fair,
No. There was USA involvement – not “intervention” – in WW2. The involvement was induced by external forces acting against the US and not by any internal US desire to “prove” anything.
US entry into WW2 was a response to Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbour and the associated declaration of war by Japan’s ally. Germany. (An analogy is the US response to 09/11.)
And US involvement in the Cold War was response to political repercussions of WW2. (For analogy think of the search for Saddam Hussein).
Richard
Richard Courtney gave my answer already.
That said, I once again declare in here (WUWT) my admiration for the cost in human lives and otherwise that the USA had in the European Theatre; and, being an European, how I feel ashamed when European politicians act or make declarations ignoring the role of the American soldiers in getting this continent rid of the fascists and nazis: the American presence in Europe in WWII was determinant. But that was not my point.
The UK should have returned Hong Kong to Taiwan due to the leaseback agreement made with the legitimate Chinese government in Taiwan approaching its end. However, politics is a dirty world where “good relationships” with powerful nations carry more weight (and more tangible incentives for politicians – just ask the big guy).
We do NOT have a treat with Taiwan to defend it but we will to some extent with weapons and possibly direct action, but not by treaty.
I was going to highlight the same sentence. There are now only 14 countries out of 193 that recognise Taiwan as a sovereign state. The flip side is that 179 countries, by default, recognise Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan.
The largest of those that recognise Taiwan is mighty Paraguay.
Taiwan is not recognised by the UN. Taiwanese passports are not recognised by the UN. China achieved that in 1979.
Taiwan does not compete at the Olympics under that name.
Any military action under CCP orders in Taiwan would be viewed as a civil war. I doubt UN Security Council would dare intervene.
Japanese are probably the most concerned about a CCP takeover of Taiwan (apart from Taiwanese of course) yet they still do not recognise Taiwan as a separate state from China.
ROC passports are recognised by 146 countries for visa-free travel.
Unfortunately there are a lot of countries that would sell their soul to have better relationships with communist dictators.
That’s what is happening here. The world is full of cowardly leaders. Dictators take advantage of cowardly leaders. It’s in their nature.
Joseph, like a broken clock you are correct from time to time. To my knowledge, there are no international bodies that recognize Taiwan’s independence. I guess the U.S. will always be part of the UK.
You mean it’s not? Wow!
Next people will tell me that New Zealand has seceded from Australia!
The relationship between America and Britain is like that of the Romans and Greeks. We are the younger brother that got much bigger; not as sophisticated in many ways but good to keep around when times get tough.
Joseph, sophistication always gets one into heaps of trouble.
Sophistication usually boils down to liking the same things I like.
Certainly not! We don’t want it it back. We had to do a fairly sophisticated “false operation” to get rid of them last time. /s
Zig, you always zag when you shouldn’t.
International relations has been a favorite topic of mine since I read Rise and Fall of the Third Reich as a high school freshman in ’64. But, walking around the school carrying that book didn’t get me any points with the hot chicks. :-}
“But, walking around the school carrying that book didn’t get me any points with the hot chicks. :-}”
Don’t do that, then. 🙂
Joseph, put a potato in your pants to make points with the hot chicks. Just be sure to put it in the front, not the back. Otherwise, learn to dance.
You are correct, the West does not recognize Taiwan. Out of 193 countries, only 14 countries and the Holy See recognize Taiwan as a separate country. None of the countries that recognize Taiwan are of any consequence.
Guatemala
Honduras
Haiti
Paraguay
Nicaragua
Eswatini
Tuvalu
Nauru
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Saint Lucia
Belize
Marshall Islands
Palau
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-that-recognize-taiwan
Most of the remaining 179 countries are of little consequence as well. When living in China and watching CCTV9 and hearing the agreement of these countries to the ‘One China Policy’, I couldn’t help but laugh. Coming to an agreement when a cheque is in the balance. What sort of agreement is that?
I knew then that it was a long-term plan by the Chinese to get countries to agree to unification and get them to put pressure on Taiwan. None of that has happened and the Chinese are miffed.
Taiwan is prosperous, has access to US armaments and has other countries fighting for their freedom. All of that would be particularly galling to China.
“Most of the remaining 179 countries are of little consequence as well.”
So true. Certainly in this situation.
“I knew then that it was a long-term plan by the Chinese to get countries to agree to unification and get them to put pressure on Taiwan. None of that has happened and the Chinese are miffed.”
Is it the Chinese, or is it just Xi? There wouldn’t be a problem if Xi wasn’t pushing it. There is no real need for China to take over Taiwan other than to satisfy Xi’s ego. Is Xi’s ego worth a nuclear war to China? China will certainly suffer greatly if a nuclear war breaks out. China can have Xi to thank for their misery.
I think the downvoters have reading comprehension problems, or down voted you because they missed the cynicism. Let me translate for you so they can understand better. Taiwan has been thrown under the bus (the bus of crony capitalism making a buck in mainland China). The bus hasn’t driven over it yet but it’s really only getting lip service. Why would the west ever agree in principle that the free people of Taiwan should become part of China? Did they vote to become part of China? So why have the west pulled recognition of it? Because of past ownership? So then the USA is a British Territory then? India too? Or all of Europe belongs to Italy? The people currently on the island of Taiwan want nothing to do with the regime in Bejing that was never elected, and the west should recognize it as an independent nation and help it anyway possible.
Very good, as far as you go, but politeness suggests we use correct titles, ie “The Republic of China”, rather than [the island of] ‘Taiwan’. And upon the inevitable dissolution of the evil CCP, a legitimate government of Mainland China, under the sound and appropriate 1947 Constitution of the Republic, may re-convene, with or without the co-operation or involvements of the Government of the RoC. Long live Peace, Justice, Mercy and Civilisation for all.
“Why would the west ever agree in principle that the free people of Taiwan should become part of China?”
Only cowards would make such a deal. Unfortunately, we had/have a lot of cowards in leadership positions.
Noone is willing to stand up to the bully, so the bully runs wild, as would be expected. It’s basic human nature.
A bully will push his envelope as far as he can until someone stands up to him and smacks him in the nose. If a bully thinks you can hurt him, he will leave you alone. If a bully thinks you can’t hurt him then he will torture you constantly.
The key to handling schoolyard bullies and international bullies is to convince them they will be hurt if they try their bullying on you. If they believe they will be hurt, they will leave you alone. It’s basic human nature.
When did noone become a substitute for nobody? My spellchecker doesn’t even like it.
“When did noone become a substitute for nobody?”
When was it not?
At first I thought it was somebody misspelling “no one.” I have come to understand it is used in countries using another English language. 😁
Tom Abbott,
You claim.
“The key to handling schoolyard bullies and international bullies is to convince them they will be hurt if they try their bullying on you. If they believe they will be hurt, they will leave you alone. It’s basic human nature.”
A succession of wars that culminated in WW2 indicates your claim did not apply to Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin and etc.
In reality, governments act in support of their national interests. “Bullying” has nothing to do with it. So, what overriding national interest do you think nations (other than PRC) have to oppose an invasion of Taiwan?
Richard
These “successions of wars” was Italy and Germany attacking weaker countries. Yes, countries act in support of what they perceive to be their national interests, however for many countries that means attacking those who they perceive to be weaker than themselves in order to take the stuff they need.
Italy, Germany and Japan are perfect examples of Tom’s point, not yours.
It’s not a matter of “becoming part of China”. The Chinese people who retreated to the island province of Taiwan were the rulers of all China prior to 1949. Essentially the losers of the civil war.
It’s probably a good thing that we are not the diplomats responsible for China policy. The point of the One China Policy is essentially to avoid having the Chinese civil war come to a conclusion with a total victory for the CCP. It’s not a statement of high principles. It’s pragmatism and power politics.
Guys, guys, guys – It’s all settled. The NFL (national football league) has issued their international map &, as shown below, Taiwan is definitely deep red. It’s only a matter of time before the NBA (national basketball association) gets done taking a knee and informs their printer.
But Northern Ireland is not part of the UK.
And America doesn’t even exist!
I saw that. China’s leadership are laughing their heads off. They said Chinese don’t even watch American football. And here’s the American National Football League Kowtowing to the Chicoms. Pitiful. Even the Chicoms think so.
Free Tibet and Free Hong Kong
good luck with that one!
Thanks, Joseph. Force does work. Just think of Europe in the 1930s.
No kidding, Free Tibet ruined Richard Here’s career…well I was not a fan
Gere…stupid autocorrect
Pretty soon we’ll be saying “Free Bhutan”.
What’s the matter with you knee-jerk down-voters? JZ is 100% correct. It has been US policy since forever. The One-China Policy.
The Republic of China on Taiwan is the same government that used to have its capital in Nanjing (aka Nanking). The Chinese civil war never formally ended in 1949. It’s only the US Navy that has prevented the CCP from finishing the job.
by the way, I was born on the day mainland China became the People’s Republic- 10/1/1949- so I’ve been interested in China- a must read is Kissinger’s “On China”
Interesting. I know someone who was born on the Fourth of July.
I guess that you have more people celebrating your birthday than he does.
“If Putin seriously wants to seize Ukraine, this winter will probably be his best opportunity.”
Maybe but it’s not a great opportunity- if Ukraine is willing to fight. It’s actually a pretty big country. Of course Russia can smash Ukraine, but then what? The consequences will be horrific for Russia.
It really doesn’t matter whether they decide to fight or not – the entire Ukraine military would simply be a slight speed bump to the Russian military. The Ukraine military has suffered from 30-40 years of neglect and ignorance – their vehicles weren’t the latest at the time of independence and they’ve never been upgraded since. One Ukraine general, totally embarrassed at how fast his regular troops were defeated by Donbass rebels, accused Russia of supplying nuclear shells to the opposition in a far-fetched way of trying to dodge the blame. So far there’s more evidence of Ukraine military (1 pilot and plane) entering Russian territory than vice versa.
I have to say I’m no fan of Putin or Russia but Ukraine is a grafting, poisonous nest of greedy, self-serving parasites.
I can see a big guerrilla war breaking out in the Ukraine, if Putin invades. Putin can’t isolate Ukraine the way the Chicoms can isolate Taiwan, so Ukrainians would have access to weapon brought in from other nations, and the Ukrainians have no love for the Russians, so they will probably fight pretty vigorously against them. And I imagine European nations would be more than willing to supply the Ukrainians with weapons if Putin invades. Sadly, not before then, which might have kept an invasion from happening.
Putin got a lot of complaints from Russian citizens the last time he had a military adventure and Russian troops were sent home in boxes. He may be in store for a lot more of that, if he decides on a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Putin will need more than 175,000 troops to do the job. More like 750,000.
There’s many photos of Russian troops pretending to be Donbass rebels, and a significant amount of the ‘rebels’ equipment was not former Ukrainian materiel.
Putin doesn’t need to invade he simple needs to undermine support from EU and then ratchet up pressure on Ukraine until the people grow weary and return to the fold by vote. All of which he seems to be actually doing.
Doesn’t really matter – the government of Ukraine have the vote in the bag. Dissent is literally brutally crushed (hands and limbs, then moving to disappearances or example killings for repeat offenders) – it’s a pretty nasty regime, sort of the worst aspects of Russia but on steroids.
I wonder what the Obama administration was doing there…or CIA?
When Trump questioned why the US was sending money the entire DC apparatus went apoplectic.
That’s another thing the new Republican-controlled Congress should be investigating, 13 months from now.
They are going to be busy. Too many scandals, too little time. But we need to make time, and we will.
The Reckoning is coming.
Bullshit, Joseph. What were the “horrific” consequences of Russia’s conquest of Ukraine’s Crimea region? Of Russia’s conquest of Georgia? Of Russia’s funding and supplying military assets to Ukrainian separatists? Of Russia’s killing of Russian nationals on UK soil?
Dream on Joseph. Do you expect the Western world to react to expansionist authoritarian regimes any differently than it did to those in the 1930’s? The same political and economic reasonings still apply. We should have learned that the costs of ignoring authoritarian regimes’ expansionist lust are far greater than nipping them in the bud.
The world, under American leadership and funding, will have to militarily defeat both Russia and China in a repeat of 20th Century history (assuming America doesn’t piss away its natural advantages). All of that at great cost to precious lives and global resources.
Like all authoritarian regimes, Russia (thugs) and China (ChiComs) do not value the life and wellbeing of their citizens. Leftist Western governments are obviously rapidly heading in the direction of authoritarianism. I do hope democratic processes will reverse those trends.
I hope, when you sober up, that you won’t be too embarrassed by what you just said when you re-read your comment.
Alexy, in your sober assessment where do you see the situations in the Ukraine and Taiwan going?
A non-specific criticism does not serve to enlighten.
There is no Russian “conquest of Georgia”. The Georgian President made an ill advised military move on ethnic people of a northern region with different ideas of how they wanted to be governed. Russia stopped those military forces and did not
take over the country; yes Georgia has had people break away from central rule.
There was no Russian “conquest” of Crimea. When the power structure in Kiev changed the naval contingents and population refused to go along. There was subsequently a vote that led to the Russian legislature accepting Crimea’s petition to become part of Russia; the preponderance among native Crimean of Russian ancestry is because since 1783 it was Russia’s.
Russia simply does not want Georgia &/or Ukraine in Nato because then NATO missiles would be 5-7 minutes away from three of the most populous cities; that is not Russia being ‘expansionist”. There is no potential to “militarily defeat” Russia; they declare another war will not be waged on their soil and would deliver devastating attacks on the homelands of all combatants.
This is an exact replay off the Cuban Missile Crisis – the US had Jupiter missiles in Turkey within a few minutes of Moscow. Response – missiles in Cuba. It took JFK to defuse this, otherwise this conversation would not be happening.
Problem is, Biden is for sure no JFK. This time around their little pantomine is supposed to take place near Germany – and the new Foreign Minister has not cottoned on. Probably never heard of Jupiter Missiles, maybe is wondering what Iskander’s are, and Kaliningrad is still Koenigsburg?
Happily, the Russians had enough sense to ignore Fidel Castro’s calls for a first-strike nuclear attack on the U.S. from Cuba. Had it been left up to Castro, we would have had a global nuclear war in 1962.
I remember watching U.S. naval vessels interdicting Soviet ships (technically an act of war) hauling missiles to Cuba on a black and white television when I was young, and wondering if we were going to have a nuclear war. The Soviet ships turned around and went back home.
Fortunately, the Russians maintained control of the nukes in Cuba.
A good book about the Cuban Missile Crisis is: “One Hell of a Gamble”.
Fidel Castro was eager to kill millions of innocent Americans with nuclear weapons. A true madman.
There’s no more Castro, but there stil are the Mad Mullahs of Iran who would also love to kill millions of Americans with nuclear weapons, and Joe Biden is enabling their demonic dreams. So we are not out of the woods yet when dealing with maniacs in possession of nuclear weapons.
Königsberg
Did you get that straight from RT or do you work there?
Russia invaded Georgia to ensure that there wouldn’t be any unrest or attention so near to the Sochi Olympics.
“The consequences will be horrific for Russia.”
I think that’s right. I think Putin knows this. He may be hoping the West capitulates to his threats just because he has made them. It’s worth a try, and he doesn’t have to invade so he can just sit there and threaten and see what the other side does. It may work out favorably for him without using any force, considering the idiots currently in our collective leadership.
Putin doesn’t really need to do anything – thanks to the failures and mismanagement of successive regimes, Ukraine’s population is in serious decline with deaths exceeding births, badly deficient health services and widespread health problems in the population. If something isn’t done soon then there won’t be much of a population left.
I have read too much history, particularly of the 1930’s, to not be apprehensive. My first reaction was “how could they be so stupid”, but the current crop of politicians are every bit as bad.
“Peace in our time”
I expect Trudeau to be the new paper waving patsy this time around. I’ll stock up on the popcorn in anticipation of the coming WW2 remake.
guess I’m pedant of the day, but it’s “peace FOR our time” that Chamberlain said, quoting Disraeli.
Oh they are that stupid…just look at the vac passports….”papers please!”
“but the current crop of politicians are every bit as bad.”
Yes, they definitely are. And our current batch of leaders have much more information available to them and many more of history’s lessons than past leaders, yet they have appear to be clueless about which direction to go.
The only one I can think of who wasn’t clueless about which direction he wanted to go was Donald Trump.
I think this is because Trump always looks at the Big Picture, and what’s good for the nation and the world, whereas nearly all our other leaders are focused on the next election, and what’s good for themselves.
We need more Big Picture leaders.
TRUMP!!!
We need that “Bull in the China Shop” back. There’s a lot of Leftwing china that needs breaking.
Russia tried to seize the Russian speaking Donbas region (most heavy industry) once before and failed using proxies (Russian mercenaries). Yes, they have European NATO over the proverbial energy barrel but that is an EU self inflicted wound. If Putin tries again using his regular forces, he loses in the end because he wakes up EU NATO on energy dependency.
And, since NordStream 2 will not get German approval to start before next July, a cold hard winter might wake the EU up no matter UKraine.
China does not presently have the naval and amphibious forces to take Taiwan. They are working to change that, but Japan and the US presently have superiority, and likely will for some years.
RE are an interesting strategic move. China controls 70% of primary production (and over half of downstream product fabrication) because they don’t care about the pollution caused by RE extraction from ore. US and Australia have very large ore reserves (rare earths aren’t actually rare). Mountain Pass had invested billions in new environmentally responsible extraction when China cut exports and prices rose, but got bankrupted when China resumed cheap exports. The solution is to declare RE a strategic resource, sharply tariffing China RE exports and downstream product exports, to let Mountain Pass and the like compete on a level playing field. Takes two-three years, but doable before China poses a real possible Taiwan military threat; but probably not happening under Biden. GND and open borders are more important to Dementia Joe and the Squad.
Much of what we see from both Putin and Xi is IMO (hopefully) simply probing the dementia Resident and his multidimensionally incompetent administration for tactical advantage.
Ukraine will fight to the last drop of American money. Most of the conflict in Ukraine has been overhyped by Ukraine government to get western money and goods into the country. If it was as serious as they say, why were they refurbishing hundreds of T-80 tanks with add-on armour, western electronics and upgraded systems just to sell on to Pakistan – Ukraine kept 3 prototypes only; Ukraine military were given reconditioned T-64’s. Similarly they modernised and refitted hundreds of BTR apc’s to sell to the Iraqi defence force, just keeping 3 or 4 of the ones that failed quality control for defending their country. Ukraine has screamed that the Russians are coming for years, enough to get lucrative deals from the west and markets for their goods – the oligarchs are making massive amounts of money from this, as they have always done in Ukraine, at the expense of the people.
As a side note, why hasn’t more been said in the MSM about the hundreds of young German men that went to Donbass? Everything went very, very quiet after that one interview when one of the men admitted he and his fellow fighters enlisted to fight against fascism.
Richard, please provide a real basis for your paranoia and anti-Ukraine tirade. It seems like the geopolitical equivalent of blaming the rape victim.
It seems that only perfect countries have a right to defend themselves.
Whatever that means, Mark.
I have provided several examples which you can search and verify for yourself which simply don’t fit the popular narrative. I fail to see why that should be such a problem – I’m simply pointing out that Ukraine is playing the victim in public whilst happily pocketing large sums for doing so. The people of the Ukraine are suffering badly under this and the last regimes mismanagement and corruption, with people like you seeming eager to ignore this completely and pat the Ukraine regime on the head for doing such a great job.
Donbas residents held a vote that they wanted to become part of Russia a few years ago. Russia turned them down on that offer.
Russia did not fail to “seize” the region years ago, rather insisted a so-called “Minsk Accord” (worked up among a couple of other European nations) was the legitimate pathway to resolve things between Donbas and Kiev. It was the newest Ukrainian politicians who relatively recently apparently ignored the “Minsk” format and declared that the Donbas shall be made to heel.
Russia is one of the Minsk signatories and contends it has obligations under Minsk Accords. Despite Western war mongering unless Kiev abrogates “Minsk” by full on attacking the Donbas it seems logical Russia will continue to refrain from a military incursion.
Maybe WUWT readers never heard the cry: “How dare Russia put it’s borders next to NATO!”
I wonder how the U.S. Federal government would react to Maine opting to join Canada? Especially if would abrogate the “San Juan” accords worked up among a couple of other North and Central American nations? Christ, Jay!
Ukraine had an election. The Obama administration supported a Kiev change of government. Donbas residents said they did not vote for anything like the Kiev regime that assumed power.
Kiev sent troops and irregulars to force Donbas to bend the knee to the newly empowered. Donbas workers rallied in self defense and the Kiev minions were not only repelled, but in some cauldrons Kiev’s ground forces were encircled. I suspect Russia aided Donbas fighters with some weaponry and advisors/combatants; similarly I suspect the USA aided the Kiev upstarts with money and advisors.
The Donbas, in a gesture of peace, let those attackers trapped return home and European politicians worked out some “Minsk Accord”. One facet of Minsk (Mink II, if memory correct) was the Donbas people and Kiev will peacefully work out the degree of Donbas autonomy.
The Kiev located legislature has not only failed to satisfy Donbas’ concerns, but in the last year issued a formal decree that Donbas shall be made to comply with Kiev’s position. Kiev, pursuant to that resolution, moved additional military equipment toward Donbas and pundits predicted once the boggy spring eastern ground dried enough Kiev could take the field.
Russia suddenly held a very large troop “exercise” with rapid deployment of equipment to a sector of Russia that demonstrated to Kiev they were close by. Kiev got the picture – there’s no “do over” for Kiev to subjugate Donbas.
Only two countries voted against UN resolution condemning Nazism – guess whom?This is what US tax dollars put into power under Obama and Biden.
Azov battalion flying Waffen-SS symbols on Volunteer Day in Kiev, Ukraine, March 14, 2020 © REUTERS/Gleb Garanich
Russia’s obligation is the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which they agreed to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity in exchange for the nuclear weapons that had been stationed there. The only legitimate pathway is for Russia to remove its special forces, agents, and equipment from both eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Any other claim is Russian propoganda.
America also signed the Budapest memorandum in which they agreed to “3. Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine to influence their politics.” The $5 billion spent on the Maidan uprising was also a clear breach of the memorandum – neither side has clean hands in this mess.
Rud, I normally agree with your analyses. But to assume that the current moves against Ukraine and Taiwan are simply tactical posturing ignores the clearly strategic thinking of Putin and the ChiComs. They are taking strategic advantage of Xiden’s feckless administration and the West’s drift into hedonistic myopia. The Ukraine and Taiwan moves are just the two most visible aspects of their strategic moves. The money-corruption of Western politicians and media are of greater strategic concern.
Putin and Xi know that the ongoing losses to Western political and military capabilities are not repairable on any realistic timeframe given the political and economic inertia underlying the causes the West’s current decline. Additionally, their paid propaganda hinders any realistic public assessment of the dual threat of a resurgent Russia and a militant China. Sadly, it might take a shooting war to wake up Western public opinion.
I have strong doubts about a shooting war. Various ‘incidents’ may occur that would lead to nothing.
These so-called incidents have caused thousands of casualties already in Ukraine, and Crimea. For D.C. and London Ukraine is incidentally useful, until it’s not.
Your thinking has historically led to shooting wars, Alexy.
And treble the price of windmills and electric cars and i-phones?
My god, Rud, you will be suggesting NuclearPower™ next. And we all know where that leads! Selling nuclear waste to people only exercising their democratic right to protect themselves from harmful technology!
Good comment, Rud. Right on the money.
I think it’s correct that Putin and Xi are just responding to Dementia Zhou’s provocative fecklessness. From the pov of their national interests, they would be derelict if they didn’t push bayonets as far as they encounter mush. But thank goddess we have a trans general now.
Some believe electric vehicles are the future.
lmao… now that is funny
Because they are.
And always will be, in the future.
Even Prof. Brown’s auto was not quite electric :
No, Griff. The first snowstorm traffic fatalities will be the end of EVs.
I remember that:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/12/22/flooded-tesla-charging-station-in-a-floodplain-that-flooded-in-2003/
Apart from the fact that the land has been prone to floods from the river Loddon since 1066, and there is an actual road sign here which warns of potential flooding, they built it anyway…. go figure.
They finished the station at the end of summer 2019, and this happened in December, lol..
It surprisingly still seems to be in operation!
That is the least of EV problems: Imagine traffic jams in snowstorms. How about traffic jams at 100 degree F? Screw that, how about a few EVs running out of juice during any heavy commute period? Ideologues don’t think through their “simple solutions.”
“The West does, but the West is interested in developing renewable energy, like wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicles. The manufacture of such goods requires rare earth minerals. The International Energy Agency estimates that in order to reach net-zero by 2050, “demand for rare earths, primarily used for making EV motors and wind turbines, increases by a factor of ten by 2030.”
Guess who controls nearly 70% of the world’s rare-earths market.”
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I have reported on this once before here at WUWT, and I will do it again.
Research and development seems to be ongoing to find a commercially viable way of extracting rare earths (REs) from coal, coal ash and other coal waste here in the United States. There appears to be quite bit of info about it at various websites if anyone here is interested in the subject.
One of the most recent ones is here….
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/us-companies-tap-coal-waste-for-rare-earth-metals-66636092
“The U.S. Energy Department’s National Energy Technology Laboratory has touted three pilot-scale facilities producing small quantities of mixed rare earth oxides from coal products. Organizations, including a team of researchers at U.S. universities with DOE funding, are working on projects to extract rare earth metals from coal and its waste streams.
Cleaning up coal waste
Midwest Energy Emissions Corp., also known as ME2C Environmental, announced Sept. 15 that it completed an initial round of testing on its rare earth element technology through the Pennsylvania State University’s College of Earth and Mineral Sciences. The process captures rare earth materials from coal ash and wastewater produced by coal-fired power plants.”
********
I am frankly a little surprised that this gets so little attention since I believe it could be a significant game-changer for the U.S. to be sizable domestic producer of REs from whatever source. There appear to be a number of processes being looked at to extract REs from coal, coal ash and other coal wastes including one involving plasma.
This of course would preclude leaving coal in the ground — something the environmental movement would no doubt have a problem with. Being dependent on China for REs can easily be considered a national security issue, which is something the environmental folks and their friends in the mass media never seem to talk about. The list of products in which REs are used is (I believe) not insignificant. Military weapons systems are on the list.
This is just a suggestion, but I think it would be nice to see a WUWT posting on this.
Nobody is going to risk starting up a RE extraction operation in the United States.
Between the environmental groups which will use lawfare to stop you, and the EPA with it’s NPDES program, you won’t stand a chance. What is NPDES? It is the appropriately named National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System. Elimination, not Minimization. The program is intentionally set up to cause noncompliance through the setting of impossible to attain standards. It is one of the main reasons why extraction and refining of metals are being performed outside the US.
And do take a look at the huge number of new mines etc for lithium and other minerals now being planned worldwide.
when there’s a demand, it becomes economic/profitable to mine for that resource.
Please invest in US based mining and extraction companies. If they are planning to perform these activities in the US, they are doomed to fail due to compliance costs.
John: I realize that there will probably be legal and cost hurdles to be overcome before a coal-to-rare-earths industry becomes a commercially viable reality.
From what I’ve read, extracting the REs from coal ash and other coal wastes is actually part of a cleanup process that makes it all less toxic. I would think that this, along with the national security issue, would help get the industry past the legal hurdle.
I am generally opposed to the idea of govt subsidies for anything. But if a govt subsidy is needed to get this industry off the ground and deal with the costs, then I would be in favor of it — especially if the Chinese try to do this as well. Lord knows they must produce a lot of coal ash every year.
All we have to do is perfect the technology and store the plans on a government server. The Chinese will be up and running with it in a few weeks.
If you are an environmentalist Griffy-poo, are you not supposed to be opposed to mining? There certainly is plenty of opposition to mining among environmentalists here in the U.S. Is that not also true in the U.K.?
And I was talking about rare earths Griffy-poo, not lithium. Changing the subject does not address what I was talking about in my comment above. Do you have any idea how much lithium would have to be mined world-wide if we eliminate ICE automobiles and fossil fuel power plants all together? And what will happen to all those batteries at the end of their useful lives? Is there a process in place to recycle them all?
If the “other minerals” you are talking about are rare earths, we still need a domestic supply of them here in the U.S. for national security reasons. They are used in military weapons systems as I said. Do your homework Griffy-poo before you take a stand against anything.
Honestly Griffy-poo, I really don’t understand why you keep coming to this website when you seem unable to make any honest, educated, rationally thought out and worthwhile contribution to it. You are like a headache that won’t go away.
Isn’t coal the root of all evil?
IMHO, deciding whether coal is evil or not is subjective. It depends on who you talk to about it.
Good article David M – thank you!
Green groups are unmasked in these two articles – more than just “Useful Idiots”.
DOES THE CCP CONTROL EXTINCTION REBELLION?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/12/15/does-the-ccp-control-extinction-rebellion/
From: The GWPF
Sent: December-14-21 5:47 AM
CHINESE REGIME USING CLIMATE POLICY AS ‘WEAPON’ AGAINST THE WEST
[excerpt]
The Epoch Times, 13 December — The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has twisted the climate change movement into a political and economic weapon against the West, according to a new report by The Global Warming Policy Foundation, a London-based non profit.
Titled “CHINA’S ENERGY DREAM”, the report details the CCP’s manipulation of international climate agreements and comes to a startling conclusion: “China uses climate policy both as a way to strengthen its economy and as a weapon for weakening other countries.”
West Turns Blind Eye
How has the CCP managed to do so little about emissions without protest from the world’s environmentalists? As Adams sees it, China has co-opted and corrupted the international climate change movement. In a paper published in 2020, she writes, “Like all western NGOs, green groups are only allowed to operate in China so long as they bite their tongues [about China’s problems].”
To work with China, climate change organizations must “turn a blind eye to the obvious: China does not honor its international agreements and has no intention of reducing fossil fuel consumption.”
“While the world has awakened to China’s abuses, Western environmentalists are silent,” Adams said in a press release accompanying the 2020 paper. “China plays them as useful idiots,” who cannot contradict Xi for fear of losing China’s participation in the global climate effort.
…
“Look at the direction we are headed,” said Adams of U.S. climate policy. While China continues to grow economically through its use of fossil fuels, the United States has “bans on fracking and new oil extraction, canceled pipelines, and unrealistic pushes for subsidized solar and wind power. These policies being encouraged by Western environmental groups threaten to destroy our economies.”
“China is involved in climate change to further its own goals. China has serious air and water pollution problems, but CO2 isn’t one of them. Climate policy doesn’t meet any of China’s internal environmental needs. It’s a powerful international issue that the CCP uses for its own benefit.”
“Among the US Navy’s primary missions are Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS), heavily focused on the South China Sea.”
Given the number of collisions the USN has experienced in the past few years, they might want to focus on basic navigation skills, but that’s not part of the woke agenda.
It gives the USN lots of practice dodging moving targets!
“With the US saddled with a dementia-ridden “president” and even less competent “vice president,” […]”
Kamala is so bad…
“How.Bad.IS.She?”
…she’s made pResident Brandon assassination proof.
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Brandon’s poll numbers are in the toidy, and hers are worse. Cane toads in Australia would poll higher than Kamala.**
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If you said OUCH! You get the drift. Gropin’ Joe is bulletproof.
It’s no longer your grandparents America out on the streets.
I see those mobs breaking into stores and I just wonder what one gunshot would do to that situation. I’m betting you would see a mob of people heading for the doors.
There’s a reason we don’t have “flash mob” robberies in Texas.
That’s what I’m talking about. 🙂
To be fair, the last several VP’s have acted as walking bulletproof (or at least impeachment proof) vests, poison pills that the other party would view as worse than the sitting President. Bush Sr. was probably the last one that could be viewed as a viable replacement.
And communism will spread globally like wildfire. Maybe that is what progressives want.
______________________________________________________________________
Maybe? Ha ha ha h ha! They’ve only been working at it 24-7-365 for the last 100 years.
Communism is effectively a dead force in the world…
Poor Griff. He is in fact part of what communism has become, and doesnt even know it!
Leo, he may be completely aware of it, but part of the current narrative/ pr campaign is that socialism is unrelated to communism.
Tell that to the ChiComs. How many people are under their rule? How much propaganda do they fund that affects you so? Griff, you ignorance (or paid propaganda) is manifest.
There is no shortage of dictators in the world, whatever label is attached to them.
365 weeks every year.
I wish this was a toilet:
Russia’s “Thousands of troops on the border of Ukraine” are actually on rotation through their long-standing base 160 miles away.
Gazprom works on long-term contracts and generally refuses to enter the monthly bidding that the EU prefers so that the spot market rules. eg, Gazprom has recently signed a 20-year contract with Hungary. There has been a general invitation to European customers who are on long term contracts to come and discuss variations to their contracts to get more gas. To my knowledge, only the CEO of the Italian company ENI has actually gone to Moscow and negotiated with the CEO of Gazprom. I don’t know whether politics is holding other fuel companies from doing the same. The EU commission investigated Gazprom’s supply when the howls of “Russia is weaponising the gas by reducing flow” came up. Said commission was forced to state that, upon investigation, Gazprom was fulfilling its contract to Europe to the letter.
The line through Ukraine that the EU is so focused on is an ancient soviet era system to supply East Germany when it was part of the USSR. Ukraine has not maintained it well, and indeed it has recently been derated. It may not even last until 2024.
When Russia is cut off from SWIFT, how will the EU pay for its gas?
The new German Foreign Minister comments recently show the Green Party intent to actually stop NordStream 2, no matter what the cost. This Minister is quoted as being ¨in sync¨ with D.C, Biden that is. Expect more belligerence.
Putin said recently if they pump more gas though Ukraine the system there would burst.
As Victoria Nuland said in 2014 the Ukraine Maidan coup cost $5billion, and another $2.4billion since, not a penny went into gas transit maintenance. Weapons are pouring in, and the army stuck in trenches will get no money Zelensky said. Just imagine the moral!
Ukraine is indeed the new Afghanistan.
Bonbon, you are criminally ignorant. Ukraine the new Afghanistan? Has the Taliban moved north?
“This Minister is quoted as being ¨in sync¨ with D.C, Biden that is.”
“In sync” with a delusional man. That doesn’t bode well.
Gary, are you being paid to produce propaganda or are you just ignorant?
For those using Epoch Times, the Falun Gong mouthpiece, here having a celebration in Taipei Taiwan :
Kinki, eh?
And everyone knows the only true democracies are Biden’s guests at the 2021 Democracy Summit :
https://www.state.gov/participant-list-the-summit-for-democracy/
Russia, China not invited, Taiwan as a state yes. Nicaragua not invited, decided to recognize Taiwan as part of China.
And the Rule of Law, here repeatedly referred to as ¨international law¨ of the Sea, being checked by subs bumping into underwater hills in the South China Sea, actually was never signed by the US because of GOP Senate opposition.
So we have the spectacle of nuke attack boat showing freedom of navigation, upholding a Law not signed by D.C. limping back to SD with the nose missing. Had to have been a 7000mile surface trip back.
To top this now Rubio et al want to engage the Dalai Lama with a ¨Tibet¨ retread.
The Tibetan Policy and Support Act, establishes that decisions regarding the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation are “religious in nature” and “belong solely to him and the Tibetan people.”
Looks like the Separation of Church and State doesn’t apply.
You’re misreading that, aren’t you?
It looks to me like Rubio is trying to separate the Chinese State from Tibetan religion, so the Separation of Church and State does apply if we go with Rubio’s plan.
“ back to SD”
What is SD?
San Diego.
Thanks
My guess is San Diego.
The guy should go out and learn. Russia is not “red”, it did not start anything in 2014, it reacted to Maidan, the west does not recognise Taiwan.
Too much of the Kinks as a kid….
And nothing happened in Tiananmen Square in 1989.
Chinese control of the South China Sea would not shut off oil supplies from the Middle East to Taiwan, S. Korea and Japan. The ships would certainly have to add a few days to each trip but they can go south of Sumatra and Java, up the Makassar Strait, east of the Philippines and up the western Pacific, deep enough water all the way.
Yeah, just let the ChiComs control the South China Sea. There are no downsides since there are narrow sea routes one can use.
Taiwan would be totally cut off because China claims Taiwanese territorial waters as part of the SCS claim. If Red China attempted to militarily enforce its claims, a state of war would already exist.
Right now, they are trying to intimidate other nations into accepting the claims… https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/14/south-china-sea-dispute-accelerated-by-coronavirus/
The Biden administration had big plans and supreme confidence, and look how things have turned out. Sometimes things happen that upset the best laid plans of mice and men and Biden and Chicoms. And Putin, for that matter.
From the article: “The only forward deployed aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific, CVN 71 USS Theodore Roosevelt was knocked out of action by COVID-19, shortly after Red China unleashed it on the rest of the world”
It was not knocked out of action. If war had broken out the day the infection was discovered on the aircraft carrier, the virus would not have prevented the crew from doing their duty. They might have been coughing as they did it, but they would not have been incapacitated enough not to be able to fight the ship. These are for the most part young people, who handle the virus much better than older people.
Of the eleven currently commissioned US aircraft carriers, only five were deployed at the time. However, the forward-deployed USS Ronald Reagan was undergoing maintenance at Yokosuka, Japan and USS Theodore Roosevelt (The Big Stick) was docked in Guam due to the COVID-19 outbreak on board. This left the Western Pacific without an effective carrier strike group (CSG). Amphibious assault ships (LHA & LHD) generally carry six USMC AV-8B Harrier jump jets. The Marine attack squadrons are in the process of transitioning to the more advanced F-35B Lighting II. The amphibious assault ships (“Gators”) can be deployed as “sea control ships” with less helicopters and up to twenty Harriers or Lightnings.
With major freedom of the seas commitments from the Middle East to the Western Pacific, the US Navy was already spread thin when COVID-19 disabled The Big Stick…
https://news.usni.org/2020/04/27/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-april-27-2020#more-75805
Had Red China moved on Taiwan while Reagan & Roosevelt were in port, , for maintenance and crew replacements, we could not have quickly responded. France’s newest aircraft carrier was also knocked out of action by Covid at the same time.
https://debunkhouse.wordpress.com/2020/05/05/covid-19-the-new-normal-anti-ship-weapon/?preview_id=9168&preview_nonce=c055ee4229&preview=true
The US, would only need to blockade the South China Sea for all shipping, in and out of China proper. Attack subs sinking ANY ship attempting to run the blockade.
Russia would benefit greatly by providing and transporting goods overland but the China mainland with its billion plus mouths to feed would soon be wending their masses back into the fields to plant and harvest as fuel supplies dwindle.
Of course all the Eurocentric posters here should note that the EU has NO ability to do anything to help the ROC. And, of course, even if the EU did have some way to help, they would do NOTHING, so having no way to project military strength across the globe is of no consequence.
TRUPM! attempted to begin the process of bringing US troops home from Europe and ran into the massive military/industrial complex’s political poser to stop it. Next go round he WILL withdraw US troops from the EU, with any troops remaining paid for by the host countries as the Polish government would do.
Less than 1 year of the OBiden administration and all of their dictatorial behavior has, I am sure, made clear to TRUPM! that he can do about whatever he wants to do, starting with cleaning house of all the deeply imbedded leftists throughout the DC and Pentagon swamps. Hire back ALL of those fired due to the vax mandate, demote of fire all those involved in the Afghanistan fiasco,
Veto any spending resolution or increase in the debt limit and eliminate entire departments to balance the budget starting with the EPA.
I don’t think it would be that easy. While I am confident the US would win a naval war with Red China, it would be very costly. We would be operating within range of PLAF land-based air cover. Red China has very advanced anti-ship missiles and ASW capabilities. I think it’s very likely that we would lose our forward-deployed carrier fairly early in the engagement, if not sunk, so heavily damaged that it would require months in drydock.
With only 11 attack carriers, there are generally only 4 available. There are usually 2 in the Pacific (3rd/7th Fleets), 1 in the Atlantic (2nd Fleet) and one in the Middle East/SW Asia (5th/6th Fleets). The rest are in maintenance cycles. 1-2 could be surged in an emergency. The other 5-6 are months away from availability.
https://news.usni.org/2020/11/12/no-margin-left-overworked-carrier-force-struggles-to-maintain-deployments-after-decades-of-overuse
I agree that there would be substantial losses of the US side. With only one shipyard capable of building the current fleet carriers, there would be no way to replace those damaged of sunk in a timely fashion.
Surface ships of any type would be foolish to send near the mainland. A crash program to build 100 or more smaller nuclear attack subs is required NOW.
We should not be building the Cadillac subs and carriers we are now when we could build 3 or 4 or more for the price of one, just build killer subs, not the do everything subs that we build now. With sufficient battery backup for emergency operation, minimum crew, maximum ship to ship and air armament.
I love our carriers, they were great before the advent of hypersonic weapons. They can still serve a purpose of force projection against most enemies. However they are indefensible against China or Russia unless the US has developed laser or super high speed particle weapons that I have not heard about that are able to defeat hypersonic attack.
Like the air force building LOTS of the newest fly by wire variant of the F15 at a much lower cost than the F22 or F35 for use as weapons delivery vehicles, smaller subs can be built faster and in far greater numbers allowing the premium subs to be held farther from the most dangerous waters and serving command and control functions, etc.
Hypersonic weapons and drones have changed the battlefield of the future. Future meaning China will start being really aggressive once they have a reliable hypersonic delivery system. The US really needs to colonize the moon and withdraw from the stupid treaty that surrendered the US sovereignty of the moon. The use of the Moon as the ultimate high ground with the ability to deliver massive “hypersonic” dirt clods anywhere on earth SHOULD have a calming effect on belligerents the world over.
See: The Moon is a Harsh Mistress.
”USS Theodore Roosevelt (The Big Stick) was docked in Guam due to the COVID-19 outbreak on board.”
Hmm, makes one wonder about the CCP agenda with the COVID outbreak (or deliberate release) from China.
Kids have climate anxiety. I have commie anxiety.. The difference is that commies have killed hundreds of millions of people and imprisoned billions more. Climate has killed no one.
Certainly commies have responsibility for vast suffering, certain details of which I consider despicable. In the interest of clarity: Russia is not communist, although the USSR was 30 years ago. On 25 December it will be the anniversary of when, in 1991, the Soviet leader resigned and the Russian leader took down the hammer and sickle flag forever.
And the country is run by the former members of the KGB. Same guys doing the same things but using different bovine dejecta to explain them. And Lenin’s tomb is still in Red Square. Still commies.
The Chinese are still overtly communist. And they are a much bigger problem than the Russians.