By Paul Dorian
Overview
Temperatures have already peaked today in Fairbanks, Alaska and are currently right around the zero degree mark and they are very likely to stay below zero during the entire time for at least the next 7 days or so. In fact, low temperatures this weekend are likely to be near 25 degrees below zero in the midst of an on-going intense cold spell that may last right into December. While Alaska is normally quite cold this time of year, these temperatures are well below normal in many cases and also quite a bit different from recent years. Some spots are likely to end up with their coldest November on record.
Details
Some of the recent winter seasons in Alaska have been warmer-than-normal, but this year is getting off to a very different start with persistent intense cold in the 49th state. This is not your typical cold for Alaska and some spots are liable to end up with their coldest month of November ever recorded.
In Fairbanks, temperatures are likely to stay below zero from later Tuesday through at least the next 7 days or so. The normal high temperature in Fairbanks this time of year is +8 degrees (F) and -10 degrees (F) is the normal low and this upcoming weekend could feature temperatures bottoming out at 25 degrees below zero. Another example of the relentless cold comes from King Salmon (Bristol Bay region of southern Alaska) where the average daily temperature has ranged from 15 degrees to 31 degrees below normal for 13 straight days. In fact, it looks quite certain that this will finish up as the coldest November on record in King Salmon as relief is not expected anytime soon. Numerous Alaska towns have experienced record low temperatures this week including Bethel, Cordova and Alyeska with two days in each location and Homer with three days this week of record low temperatures.
Alaska’s biggest city, Anchorage, is not escaping the intense cold with Tuesday’s temperatures in the single digits and likely to peak near the +10 degree (F) mark. The normal high temperature in Anchorage on this date is +26 degrees (F) and the normal overnight low is +15 degrees (F). In fact, temperatures this weekend are likely to bottom out near 15 degrees below zero which is 30 degrees below the normal for this time of year.
One of the likely causes of the intense cold being experienced this month in Alaska is the colder-than-normal water sitting off the west and southern coastlines. This area of colder-than-normal water has been quite persistent in recent months and is quite a dramatic change from recent winters. Last year and in some of the prior winter seasons, the water was quite a bit warmer-than-normal in the northeastern part of the Pacific Ocean – likely playing a big role in some of the recent warmer-than-normal winters in Alaska.
With the persistent and intense cold and the colder-than-normal water temperatures, sea ice has responded accordingly and has grown quite rapidly – in some cases to its greatest extent this early in the season since 2012. For example, “ice-over” in the Chukchi Sea has already exceeded 95% of the basin which is the earliest on this date since 2012 and some four or five weeks earlier than the past 9 years. The Bering Sea ice extent is also off to its fastest start for this early in the winter season since 2012.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Another quirk of climate vs. weather: Weather fluctuates. Climate only goes from bad to worse. Weather is only annoying. Climate is a one-way road to doomsday. (Wink, wink)
Arctic freezing ‘unexpectedly’ now Alaska, and in few days N.W Europe, it sounds we are at tipping point but not in direction predicted. Nature will punish unprepared disrespectfools**.
No tipping point. Just weather doing what weather does.
Cold in November is not that remarkable. Anymore than a heatwave in June.
We are at tipping point every second half of March and September.
20+ departures for such a stretch is impressive regardless of the time of year! If it was anomalous warmth, I guarantee you would have heard about this from several “trusted” media sources; however since were are experiencing cold anomalies, one needs to read WUWT to learn of these impressive departures from climo!
“however since were are experiencing cold anomalies, one needs to read WUWT to learn of these impressive departures from climo!”
Yes, hardly a peep from the leftwing Media about this. Typical. They report what is favorable to the leftwing position, and don’t report anything that is unfavorable to the leftwing position.
Bet me that NOAA/NASA and the boys won’t hype the record colds.
Nonsense. Nature is not a person. The past temperature changes are a guide to the future ‘climate’ change. The sun has and is changing from the past cycles. The changes are consistent with the sun going into a Maunder minimum state. During a Maunder minimum there is an increase GCR created ions in the atmosphere which results in an increase in cloud formation and hence cloud cover.
Maunder minimums in the past lasted 50 to 75 years in duration. This is the solar minimum cooling for decades. The effect of the GCR change is greatest in the higher latitudes where the GCR is not effectively blocked by the earth’s magnetic field. This mechanism explains why the Greenland Ice sheet cyclically warms and then cools. The sun caused the warming and then the cooing.
The sun has almost lost its ability to produce a sunspot. The mechanism which produces sunspots has stopped producing large long lived sunspots. The sunspots produces are are tiny pores (which are not sunspots… there are what is produced when the sun is changing to a Maunder minimum) which have a life time of days as compared to normal sunspots which are massive objects that had an average lifetime of 22 days.
The recent warming is a Dansgaard-Oechger warming event. D-O events are mysterious unexplained warming periods that occur in both interglacial and glacial periods. The D-O past warmings disprove the concept of CO2 being the forcing of the past and current warmings.
The past D-O warmings were followed by abrupt cooling. And every 6k to 8k years Heinrich events.
Greenland ice temperature, last 11,000 years determined from ice core analysis, Richard Alley’s paper.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif
Of course all this cold weather in Alaska is entirely caused by “carbon” your all encompassing climate controller
Minus 50C in parts of Russia. Minus 40C equals minus 40F equals too damned cold. Without face protection your boogers freeze in your nose – a very strange feeling.
When you take a piss, it steams and freezes in mid-air, forming pissicles – beware frostbite and frozen mitts.
La Nina looks locked-in, so prepare for extreme cold in late January and February.
SCHOOL CANCELLED IN YAKUTIA, RUSSIA AS TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO -50C (-58F), RARE LATE-SNOWS HIT ARGENTINA, + PARTS OF ANTARCTICA ARE HOLDING UNUSUALLY COLD
November 23, 2021 Cap Allon
Russia’s early-season polar cold hasn’t just been confined to the land, either — at least 20 ships remain stuck in unusually thick Arctic sea ice, awaiting icebreaker assistance.
Soon it will be coming to a place near you.
It hit 43F in Florida tonight… I was wondering why my elbows were hurting inside my long sleeve shirt and sweater.
I know this feeling well.
Happens every time when global warming hits me.
Just in: British Army decided to move their training base from Canada to deserts of Oman, presumably to get ready for the effects of catastrophic global warming.
The circulation over Alaska will not change, due to a stable polar vortex pattern (ozone blockade in the north of Pacific).
And…. Antarctica just recently recorded its coldest six months on record. So, what’s happened to all this globull warming???
Don’t worry. Temperatures will be homogenised and adjusted until they comply with the narrative.
When they “homogenize” the temperatures will they also re-attach the frozen body parts that fell off?
Nope, lays on the ground.
Listen Noob.
That’s reversed global warming.
It’s 10 * worse than the standard global global and therefore needs 10* higher taxes and greener newer deals.
It comes along with 2 hockeysticks and and a dozen new apocalyptic scenarios and doesn’t even need co2 to exist.
Haven’t heard anything in the general news about that.
Recently booked a cruise to Alaska in June 2022.
Must be the Gore effect in action.
Let us know how the glaciers in Glacier Bay are doing when you return. They started melting in the 1800’s.
Well. Someone finally noticed how cold we are having it in Alaska. Here in Cantwell, which since 2011 has not had a NWS station, my PWS recorded 2 days with lows of 1F in late Sep. Oct was just the normal miserable cold. But Nov has resumed September’s trend (which actually started in April; we had -31F 4-10-21 and similar temps were recorded all over the interior). Sat night 11-20-21 we had -31.4F; a friend, Chris, who is the commander of the Trooper Station in Tok, recorded -40F. This comes after Mon 11-15-21 Cantwell having a low of -28F.
The coldest Cantwell Nov ever, at least since 1983, was 11-20-13, when we hit -40.5.
Out of curiosity what is your net zero plan? Are you relying on solar or wind?
😜
That’s funny!
I expect there will be more uninhabitable places when net zero is achieved.
Burn more coal. Or flap my tires and snowbird south…
Well I have to say that this is good news . .
Not that I wish any ill will to those living in Alaska.
Quite the contrary; this means freezing over of those Artic Tundra regions (permafrost) once again and so the end of those terrible methane emmissions. This will save Alaska and indeed the whole world I’m sure. Alaskans can return to their normal lives without the fear of catastrophic climate change. People and animals alike can ‘dig in for the next 6 months and stay warm’.
This is a classic sign of Global Warming.
This is what has been predicted.
Warming causes cooling. This is proof.
Right. Entirely consistent with Climate Change ™
That does not look nice.
Alaska Temperature: Ventusky Wednesday 24Nov2021 @ 2 pm
what you should be noticing is how anomalous this is compared to the last decade.
and that it is a one off, not a turning point.
Griff,
“it is a one off, not a turning point”
How do you know it’s a one-off? Can you see the future?
Disputin,
The griffter shook his Magic Weather 8-Ball, and looked into the little window; that’s how he knows!!
He even sprang for the deluxe, Mickey Mann edition; with signatures from St. Greta and Al Goracle, the Dread ManBearPig, to increase it’s blessed accuracy!
What proof do you have!?
Proof? Proof?? Why should I need a Proof? Griff doesn’t!
Of course he can! In Soviet England, just like Mother Russia, the future is certain. Only the past is unpredictable.
Weather when it’s cold, climate when it’s warm.
Except when it’s CO2 caused cooling due to the CO2 caused warming, eh, mate?
Yeth Marthstur.
IPCC, AR6, Annex VII “Glossary” :
Take it up with the IPCC, not me (or anyone else here at WUWT).
Will you say the same thing when there is a heatwave somewhere? I doubt it.
We already know the answer to that question, all we have to do is go back to any heat wave during the past summer.
Yea, as we know that illustrious tree ring reader had declared the cycling of the AMO to not be a major factor in determining weather pattern in the Arctic and northern temperate zone. And so despite many decades of temperature records, Gia will now comply with master Mann’s edict and thus thus cold in Alaska is anomalous. Eye roll.
Hey! I gotta red mark down. Must of touched an alarmists last nerve. I like it!
Maybe a Gaia worshipper upset with your spelling effrontery. Imagine misspelling the name of the goddess! How dare you?
If griff didn’t have double standards, he would have no standards at all.
All summer long griff has been proclaiming every anomalous warm event as proof positive that CO2 was about to kill us all.
Stupid is as stupid says.
There you go again with that random chance on each data point. A cycle is not composed of random dots.
PDO MonthlyIndexSince1979 With37monthRunningAverage.gif (880×475) (climate4you.com)
Funny how you did not describe the flooding in the Ahr valley in Germany earlier this year as being ‘anaomalous’ considering that the long-term trend was no flooding in the Ahr valley.
Wildly variable and wonky (in the short medium and longer terms) weather = what you get in deserts
Sorry peeps, those are the sorts of things a climatologists wants, needs and should be knowing
All your pretty little graphs (plg) are – are just that. Pretty. Little. Things.
Artists’ impressions of Dancing angels
What is the point of them all?
Surely Shirley and we all know by now, for every plg you generate, your detractors will throw ten of their plgs straight back at you
Life’s Too Short
Peta I love your whimsical contributions. You have a wonderful Luna Lovegood flavour. Keep up the fight against The Mann who must not be named. Nice to have a cold spell too and I am praying for a real stinker of a winter in the UK so Boris can freeze his Nut-Nuts off
Judging from the sat temp maps, things were cooling down to below avg in Alaska by Sept. Click on the map links.
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/archives.html
Don’t worry!
As our beloved climatologist griff has declared yesterday, it is nothing but “a freak weather event”
Pointing to Relatively warm winter weather in in Alaska was Griff’s go to over the last several years when the weather elsewhere was not supporting the climate change narrative. He’ll now have to look somewhere else.
I like watching the shows that chronicle the people in that state living in the bush. Several of those that live the hunter-gatherer life have commented on how the weather of the last few years had changed the migration patterns of the caribou and behavior of various other game they rely on. Hope they’re happy now.
And of course there’ll always be somewhere else. Somewhere there will be a heavy rain, or a stationary high pressure system in July, or a hurricane, or a tornado, or a patch of open water in the Arctic. The griffter will let us know. No need to pay too much attention.
Joao,
How many times does the griffter have to explain this to you benighted heathens! Colder temps are just weather; only warmer temps and heat waves are climate!!
Sheesh!! It’s all right there in Climastrology Today! Don’t you even read!?
Yes, I very well understood griff’s enlightening lecturing, that is why I started to say “Don’t worry!”…
Looks to me more like the start of the next ice age, which I have been predicting ever since I saw that conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn in the evening sky last December.
Oh. My. God. It is cold in Alaska in November?!?!?! We are all going to die!!!!!!!!!
Claiming that a 10th or 20th of a degree difference in temps from year to year proves anything other than temps are different from year to year is asinine. One more time for the simpleminded leftist idiots of the world, climate changes constantly, it always has and it always will, humans are not causing it to change and cannot stop it from changing.
Yes that’s cold, especially when you look at anomalies 30 °C below average.
Here is a list showing the top ten of an ascending sort of absolute temperatures recorded in Alaska by currently active USCRN stations (average of hourly data) for November:
AK_Tok_70_SE: 2011 11 20 -41.88
AK_Tok_70_SE: 2011 11 21 -37.66
AK_Ivotuk_1_NNE: 2018 11 25 -36.70
AK_Tok_70_SE: 2011 11 19 -37.38
AK_Tok_70_SE: 2013 11 21 -35.76
AK_Glennallen_64_N: 2013 11 20 -36.89
AK_Tok_70_SE: 2011 11 18 -35.46
AK_Glennallen_64_N: 2013 11 19 -34.40
AK_Ruby_44_ESE: 2016 11 29 -33.40
AK_Ivotuk_1_NNE: 2018 11 24 -34.85
AK_Ivotuk_1_NNE: 2015 11 16 -33.74
AK_Tok_70_SE: 2013 11 20 -32.60
AK_Tok_70_SE: 2017 11 26 -33.15
AK_Ivotuk_1_NNE: 2015 11 15 -31.87
AK_Toolik_Lake_5_ENE: 2018 11 24 -31.65
AK_Tok_70_SE: 2020 11 19 -32.87
AK_Tok_70_SE: 2017 11 21 -31.89
AK_Ivotuk_1_NNE: 2015 11 14 -32.34
AK_Ivotuk_1_NNE: 2015 11 17 -31.39
AK_Fairbanks_11_NE: 2011 11 21 -31.54
AK_Tok is somewhere in one of the coldest corners Alaskas, just near Canada:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/62%C2%B044'12.8%22N+141%C2%B012'29.9%22W/@62.7370573,-143.4451872,444879m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x2b5cba9164312b53!8m2!3d62.7369!4d-141.2083?hl=en
No wonder it records such cold temps.
Maybe I download the USCRN stuff next December again, we will then have a clearer look.
Ooops?! The sort looks a bit strange.
Back in the day when they had full service gas stations, the attendant was signaled by the cars running over a rubber hose and pneumatically ringing a bell.
I remember one year in the early 70’s that it got so cold that instead of compressing when a car ran over the, the hoses would shatter.
Aaaaack!! How dare you, Paul!
Are you trying to imply that lower SSTs lead to early and heavy sea ice formation? Surely it is just some after effect of the Magic Gas; CO2!
But not to worry; St. Greta is, as we speak, wending her way through the Northern Passage from Sweden to Alaska! Eschewing the nuclear ice breakers of Bad Vlad, the evil gas giant; she stands at the bow wielding her Holy Hairdryer, powered by solar panels with a unicorn fart backup system!
She should be arriving shortly unless they run into a spell of cloudy wetaher; I’ve heard the backup fuel is in short supply!
Is it really that cold if the NYT and LAT do not cover the story?
Did Al Gore visit Anchorage? Greta Thunderpants? The Pope?
wasn’t there a time not that long ago that even engine heaters didn’t work
SeeOhhDose strikes again!!!
All I know is CO2 wut done it. Only a return to agrarian subsistence living will save the planet from the human infestation .
oh…
/sarc
Surely not the old “Look, a squirrel!” trick again?
The map here shows that Alaska (AKA ‘ the squirrel’) is indeed currently much colder than average for the time of year. But the global average temperature is estimated to be +0.5C warmer than average for the time of year. So many more places globally must be warmer than average rather than colder than average. The Antarctic region is on average +2.5C warmer than usual for the time of year, for instance.
But we’ll deflect instead towards the colder than average regions and hope no one notices. The old ones never tire out.
Stupid response, because, bone-head, that kind of temp can be lethal in minutes and is a grave concern to anyone living there, and not some couple degrees above avg where no one would notice or prb’ly in fact welcome.
No they do not. (That is to say, no, you don’t)
Just so you know, here are the average monthly temperatures of four different locations in Alaska. (data: Alaska Climate Research Centre ACRC)
McGraph
Just so you know, here are the average monthly temperatures of four different locations in Alaska, over the last ten years. (data: Alaska Climate Research Centre ACRC/ACIS)
McGrath, Yakutat, Cold Bay, CH Springs, representing various climates over a vast area.
I’ve been told to notice how anomalous this all is, but all I see are natural cycles, and 10 years of data to back up that assumption. Go back another ten years, it still gives the same picture.
Your “squirrel” argument is weak and without substance.
McGrath
Cold Bay
.
Yukutat
Circle Hot Springs
But but, Antarctica and the Arctic are supposed to be the canary in the climate doom cave! You guys, always looking for an angle to try and make strawberry jam out of pig sh!t.
Yup, and that Alaskan cold often finds its way south and east sooner or later, sometimes way south and east. That cold has even chilled down the ocean water of the entire Gulf of Alaska.
“Yup, and that Alaskan cold often finds its way south and east sooner or later,”
Yes, we can count on it.
During the next few weeks, the temperatures across most of the U.S. will be fairly mild, but that next dip in the jet stream is in our future, and along with that comes the cold air.
So according to the AGW crowd, the polar bears ought to be happy and in the best health of their life in this early onset of winter. I would love to see sea ice grow significantly this year…it’s fun to watch the propaganda police scramble.
“it’s fun to watch the propaganda police scramble.”
It really is. 🙂
I anticipate more of it in the future.
Paul Dorian ==> Snow cover fr the State of Alaska is also very high for this early in the season: https://www.weather.gov/aprfc/Snow_Depth (click on Snow Cover on the right of the image).
The cold temperature (to me) indicates a loss of energy upward, and ocean water freezing indicates moving energy from the water to the air.
If the air mass doesn’t move, the cold intensifies. This is the development of a Continental Polar (cP) air mass.
When this air mass does move, I hope it goes east-southeast. Sorry Canadian Prairies & North Dakota, I live in central Washington State. About mid-December, look for that intensely cold air moving someplace where it will be hard not to notice.
This airmass will probably move down the coast instead of Southeast. I’ve already seen a few forecasts and the reasons behind them showing BC, Washington, Oregon and NorCal getting the brunt of this. But then as you say, it is going somewhere ultimately and forecasts are not absolutes.
Is Europe ready to be hit by Arctic air? Very high pressure over Iceland.
It certainly looks that way. Not sure if we’ll get a sustained onslaught of Arctic air or, as in previous years, a flip-flopping between cold and warmer periods as the winds shift round. We’ll just have to see and take what comes.
Another test for the windmills.
Those high-pressure systems can give windmills a double-whammy: They can freeze the windmills, and/or becalm the wndmills.
I wouldn’t want to be depending on windmills to keep me warm.
We don’t have hurricanes in Europe. Otherwise, we would, in Germany, never have been able to produce over 100 TWh out of windmills last year:
The windmill installation process in the US (and also in France) was desastrous.
Heavy frost across the US Midwest as early as tonight.
The cold sits far to the south. … https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-93.86,43.17,506/loc=-113.309,34.667
Yes, this is the extent of the polar vortex.
Current temperatures (C).
PDO is plummeting.
There is no change in the north Pacific circulation and more waves of precipitation are reaching British Columbia, where a total of more than 4 metres of snow could fall in the mountains.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=ak&product=ir
Winter at the end of November will begin in Europe with full force. For starters, snowfall in Spain.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=europe×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
There you go, Anthropogenic Global Warming strikes again!
It’s not just this winter. Alaska has experienced colder temperatures over the past two years. This past summer barely broke 70 deg F. I can’t warm up.
I generated anomalies wrt 1981-2010 for GHCN daily Anchorage stations in JJA 2020/1 and obtained
US AK_ANCHORAGE_MERRILL_FLD______ 2021 7 -16.06 (°C)
US AK_ANCHORAGE_MERRILL_FLD______ 2021 8 -14.98
US AK_ANCHORAGE_INTL_AP__________ 2021 7 -14.78
US AK_ANCHORAGE_MERRILL_FLD______ 2020 7 -14.75
US AK_ANCHORAGE_MERRILL_FLD______ 2020 6 -13.82
US AK_ANCHORAGE_INTL_AP__________ 2020 7 -13.69
US AK_ANCHORAGE_MERRILL_FLD______ 2020 8 -13.65
US AK_ANCHORAGE_MERRILL_FLD______ 2021 6 -13.56
US AK_ANCHORAGE_INTL_AP__________ 2021 8 -13.52
US AK_ANCHORAGE_INTL_AP__________ 2020 6 -12.85
US AK_ANCHORAGE_INTL_AP__________ 2020 8 -12.61
US AK_ANCHORAGE_INTL_AP__________ 2021 6 -12.28
Reminds me Andalucia (Spain) in June 2019, where hotspot ‘Moron de la Frontera’ suddenly dropped 20 °C below the 30 year average 🙁
*
And NOAA’s forecast for Alaska within Northern America doesn’t look much better:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html
Hello La Nina…
But the climate cluckers will just say that global warming is causing colder winters…so you cant win with these knuckleheads.
Back in January 1989 when Alaska’s alltime statewide record low temperature was being threatened (but ended up being safe by 4 degrees F), I heard of that cold wave being a sign of lack of global warming. Since then, I have heard of other Alaska cold waves being pointed out (incorrectly) by global warming skeptics as “evidence” of lack of global warming. And, climate activists point out recent cold waves (mostly incorrectly) as “evidence” that temperature variance is increasing, while temperature variance (at least north of the Tropic of Capricorn) is actually mostly decreasing because the Arctic is warming more than the rest of the world.