The Week That Was: 2021-11-20 (November 20, 2021)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “There is nothing more frightening than ignorance in action.” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe [H/t John Garrett]
Number of the Week: 99.9% Consensus
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The Glasgow Follies are over and Western politicians had their opportunities to strut on the world stage, pledge how they will punish the ordinary people for their excesses and have gone home to explain to the ordinary people how they did not mean what they said. Discussed below are a few of the many descriptions of what occurred. The few true leaders of countries to emerge were those from India, China, and others in East Asia, and a few in Africa who understand the needs of their people and are not persuaded by the elaborate, shabby science used by the UN and other agencies to declare a climate crisis or emergency when there is none.
Fossil fuels are needed to lift the poor from extreme poverty, as China has clearly demonstrated. Fuels such as coal, so plentiful in many countries, can burn cleanly and generate reliable electricity to better provide for the heating and cooking needs of ordinary people than is possible from dung, wood, and other biofuels. Reliable energy, electricity is required for industrialization.
Anyone who has followed hourly, daily, weekly, monthly generation from wind and solar knows that claims that these sources can replace fossil fuels are a travesty. There are no energy storage systems (batteries, pumped-hydro storage, compressed air, etc.) big enough to cover the huge gaps in generation, and there is no proof-of-concept that wind or solar can replenish the storage in a timely manner.
For the US, Francis Menton summed it well:
“At this point, the biggest risk is that Biden and the Democratic Congress together put through enough of a ‘Green New Deal’ to effectively destroy the U.S. energy sector and leave the world with no clear shining example of energy success. It’s getting less and less likely but could still happen.”
The Biden administration may find it cannot bribe its way out of a hole it has dug no matter how generous the promised subsidies.
In addition, this TWTW will discuss the presentation of Willie Soon at the Heartland Conference covering research by many on the disagreements of impact of solar changes on the earth’s climate. The UN and its followers ignore these crucial differences to claim the impact of variation in the sun is miniscule, about zero. In another paper, Soon explains why, after thirty years of study, he is now sufficiently confident in the patterns his group has uncovered to make predictions of solar variability for the near future.
*******************
The Global Age of Shams: Walter Russell Mead discussed the Glasgow display of ignorance well. He writes:
“If there is one thing the world should take away from the Glasgow COP26 summit, it’s that the most dangerous greenhouse-gas emissions come from the front ends of politicians, not the back ends of cows. Pandering is much more dangerous to human civilization than methane, strategic incompetence a graver threat than CO2; and dysfunctional establishment groupthink will likely kill more polar bears than all the hydrofluorocarbons in the world.
“The 19th-century writer Thomas Carlyle wrote of an Age of Shams in prerevolutionary France, when the chattering classes and political leaders had so fundamentally lost contact with the underlying realities of the day that they could no longer understand the political challenges facing the French social order, much less respond to them. The elaborate rituals of court life in Versailles persisted, the ministers and bureaucrats went through the motions of governance, and intellectuals sparkled in the salons—while the French monarchy sailed, like the Titanic, toward its rendezvous with destiny.
“COP26 was the kind of hollow ritual that characterized Carlyle’s Age of Shams. As one politician after another committed their countries to carefully crafted unenforceable pledges, none had the bad manners to observe that no country anywhere fully honored the climate pledges made with such fanfare in Paris six years ago. Even the pledges are insufficient to meet the stated goals of the U.N. climate process, and nobody is keeping the pledges.
“The intellectual and political disarray on display in Glasgow was terrifying. President Biden boasted about America’s new climate goals and its dedication to them. Yet in the same week he begged OPEC+ to bail out the world economy and his presidency by pumping more fossil fuels. Let future presidents face the rough contours of a world without fossil fuels; this one means to get re-elected, no matter how much greenhouse gas spews into the sky.
“Emerging-market countries had their own demands. The old magic number of $100 billion in annual climate finance to emerging markets has been discarded as pathetically insufficient. India alone now asks for $1 trillion by the end of the decade, and the total annual bill for emerging economies is estimated at $1.3 trillion. The only thing certain about this bill is that it will never be paid.
“On the positive side, as more than one breathless journalist reported, after 30 years of intense United Nations negotiations over climate change, the final declaration in Glasgow mentioned fossil fuels for the first time. Admittedly, those 30 years of patient diplomacy have seen an inexorable rise in greenhouse-gas emissions, but that is a minor detail. One trembles with excitement to contemplate the wordsmithing breakthroughs from the next 30 years of international conferences.
“No one should be surprised that COP26 failed to solve the climate problem. No coherent strategy for addressing a major, technically complex and politically sensitive issue has ever emerged or will ever emerge from a gathering of 30,000 people representing more than 190 countries and uncounted industry and nongovernmental groups.
“Like much of what happens in international life, COP26 was less about solving difficult problems than helping politicians survive their inability to provide effective leadership on issues that matter. European and North American politicians bask in the coverage of their pledges and their declarations of concern; Asian and African leaders make sure the folks back home know how hard they are fighting for that trillion-dollar payout. Emissions continue to rise.”
Mr. Mead then discusses other political issues which are not of concern for TWTW. In addition, an editorial in the Wall Street Journal discusses how unreal the situation is. See Article # 1 and Article # 2.
*******************
Humiliating Failure: Paul Homewood presents excerpts from numerous UN documents which went into the preparation of COP 26. He recognizes that the UK prime minister Boris Johnson staked a significant part of his reputation on its success. He then shows the significant difference between pledges for 2030 and current emissions as compared to the 2015 Paris Agreement. Homewood concludes:
“The end of the road.
“In my view, we have seen the beginning of the end for the UN’s climate agenda.
There will no doubt be many more COPs to come. And there will be annual warnings from Prince Charles that we have 12 more months to save the planet.
“But the writing is now on the wall. Developing countries around the world are standing up and refusing to cut back on fossil fuels, because they know they have no alternative if they want to grow their economies and give their people a better life.
“They have got off the Climate Train.
“So should we.”
In his essay describing COP 26 and its goal for global central planning, the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) president Kent Lassman concludes with a quote from Shakespeare describing the Glasgow Follies:
“Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.” — Act V, Scene v, Macbeth
But there is always next year. COP 27 is scheduled to take place not in cold Glasgow, but in warm Sharm al-Sheikh, Egypt, on the Sinai Peninsula, a coastal resort on the Red Sea. There the glimmering rich can show their concern for protecting the earth to ordinary people, not using jet fuel to fly in by luxury private jets, but by using diesel to cruise in on luxury yachts. So much more tasteful and fashionable. See links under After Paris!
*******************
The Role of the Sun: At the 14th International Conference on Climate Change, Willie Soon presented research he is doing with others on the role of the sun on earth’s climate. The first part of the lecture discussed the paper he wrote with twenty-two co-authors including many other experts in solar physics: “How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate.” Published in Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics, the paper discusses an important controversy in evaluating the influence of changing solar radiation on surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. If we do not know the natural influences on surface-air temperatures, we cannot hope to use them to estimate the influence of CO2. The beginning of the abstract reads:
In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends, it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. Sixteen different estimates of the changes in TSI since at least the 19th century were compiled from the literature. Half of these estimates are “low variability,” and half are “high variability.” Meanwhile, five largely independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using: 1) only rural weather stations; 2) all available stations whether urban or rural (the standard approach); 3) only sea surface temperatures; 4) tree-ring widths as temperature proxies; 5) glacier length records as temperature proxies. The standard estimates which use urban as well as rural stations were somewhat anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates, suggesting that urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets – despite the conclusions of some earlier studies. Nonetheless, all five estimates confirm that it is currently warmer than the late 19th century, i.e., there has been some “global warming” since the 19th century.
Demonstrating their ignorance of solar physics, the censors at Facebook attacked the paper. The September 11 TWTW discussed the paper and incident. The paper by Soon, et al. was based on the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5, 2013). About the same time the IPCC came out with its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021) with its foolish Summary for Policymakers featuring a hockey-stick style graph of 2000 years claiming to show roughly steady temperatures until modern times. This has been discussed in recent TWTWs, thanks to the efforts of Steve McIntyre exposing how poor the underlying studies are. (The Technical Summary (Figure TS.10) of AR6 also features a return of the missing “hot spot” starting about 2081, with no physical evidence.)
Figure TS:15 (p. 129) shows that the role of the sun in changes in global surface temperature from 1750 to 2019 is miniscule. To claim that the solar dynamo has no role in changing global temperatures for over 250 years is absurd.
In his Heartland presentation Soon went into the use of machine learning to reconstruct gaps in sunspots as reported in the World Data Center’s newly constructed annual sunspot time series (1700–2019; Version 2.0). The abstract of the paper states:
“The retrodiction and prediction of solar activity are two closely-related problems in dynamo theory. We applied Machine Learning (ML) algorithms and analyses to the World Data Center’s newly constructed annual sunspot time series (1700–2019; Version 2.0). This provides a unique model that gives insights into the various patterns of the Sun’s magnetic dynamo that drives solar activity maxima and minima. We found that the variability in the 11-year Sunspot Cycle is closely connected with 120-year oscillatory magnetic activity variations. We also identified a previously under-reported 5.5-year periodicity in the sunspot record. This 5.5-year pattern is co-modulated by the 120-year oscillation and appears to influence the shape and energy/power content of individual 11-year cycles. Our ML algorithm was trained to recognize such underlying patterns and provides a convincing hindcast of the full sunspot record from 1700 to 2019. It also suggests the possibility of missing sunspots during Sunspot Cycles −1, 0, and 1 (ca. 1730s-1760s). In addition, our ML model forecasts a new phase of extended solar minima that began prior to Sunspot Cycle 24 (ca. 2008–2019) and will persist until Sunspot Cycle 27 (ca. 2050 or so). Our ML Bayesian model forecasts a peak annual sunspot number (SSN) of 95 with a probable range of 80–115 for Cycle 25 between 2023 and 2025.”
Initially TWTW was skeptical because Bayesian statistics have been misused in many misleading studies, often because the researchers do not understand their limitations for making forecasts. However, Soon’s co-authors, particularly Velasco Herrera, have an understanding of the limitations of statistics. The mathematics is beyond the scope of this week’s TWTW. The authors state in the paper under “Results of hindcasting and forecasting solar activity cycles”:
“4.1. Quality criterion of the Bayesian sunspot model.
“Because solar activity is a highly variable, complex system, and because ML model estimates are limited by an uncertainty principle (Velasco Herrera et al., 2015), only probabilistic ranges can be specified for the annual average number of sunspots.
“To create a unique model for forecasting future solar cycles, the model must have (a) information on the patterns of the sunspot cycles found in the spectral analysis, as well as (b) information on variability that induces solar activity maxima and minima. A model with an artificial intelligent algorithm can never reproduce 100% of the objective data because this scenario leads to undesirable overtraining.
“Here, we show that with the analyzed sunspot time series, a ML model can be constructed that meets both the requirements (a) and (b). We used the Bayesian model firstly to obtain a model that can accurately hindcasts sunspot patterns and can be used in forecasting sunspot counts over the next several cycles.
“Since it is not possible to forecast the exact number of annual sunspots, we have applied the Bayesian ML model to reproduce the patterns of annual sunspots for forecasting subsequent solar cycles.”
Under conclusions they state:
“Our model yields a reliable reconstruction of the sunspot record observed from 1700 to 2019, as well as probabilistic forecasts of the sunspot time series from 2020 to 2100.”
This may become a significant improvement in forecasting the changing intensity of the sun, but only nature (the future) can tell.
As Soon pointed out in his lecture, Andrei Monin, the Russian physicist, applied mathematician, and oceanographer, who made significant contributions to statistical theory of turbulence and atmospheric physics stated:
“The greatest attention should be devoted to the question whether there is a connection between the Earth’s weather and the fluctuation in solar activity. The presence of such a connection would be almost a tragedy for meteorology, since it would evidently mean that it would first be necessary to predict solar activity in order to predict the weather.”[Boldface added]
See links under Science: Is the Sun Rising? and Defending the Orthodoxy.
*******************
Red Team Missing: Jim Steele discusses the inferior quality of the recent report on climate being a threat to national security by the Department of Defense. In his discussion he mentions a 2003 DoD report on the importance of Red Teams for critical thinking needed for planning. It states in part:
“We argue that red teaming is especially important now for the DoD. Current adversaries are tougher targets for intelligence than was the United States major cold war foe. Red teaming deepens understanding of options available to adaptive adversaries and both complements and informs intelligence collection and analysis.”
The disaster of committing hundreds of thousands of ground troops into Southeast Asia without a strategic plan is an example of the need for red teams. Let’s hope the current Pentagon leadership will not follow the lead of the “best and the brightest” of the Pentagon “whiz kids” sixty years ago. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Expanding the Orthodoxy.
*******************
Number of the Week: 99.9% Consensus. On his blog, Tony Heller quotes a statement by UK environmentalist Mark Lynas:
“Have signed this letter calling for social media networks to take strong action against climate misinformation and disinformation. Given that we now know the climate consensus is 99.9% in the scientific community, there is no room for denialism.”
Apparently, the clueless Lynas has never heard of those scientists discussed in TWTW. Ignorance is bliss. See link under Below the Bottom Line.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Studying the Role of the Sun on Climate
By Willie Soon, 14th International Conference on Climate Change, October 16, 2021
How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate
By Ronan Connolly, et al. Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 2021 [Free Article]
PDF: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1674-4527/21/6/131/pdf
Does Machine Learning reconstruct missing sunspots and forecast a new solar minimum?
By V.M. Velasco Herrera, W. Soon and D.R. Legates, Advances in Space Research, August 2021
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Thugocracy: Science in the Postmodern World (Roger Pielke Jr. as victim)
By Richard W. Fulmer, Master Resource, Nov 18, 2021
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
It’s time to cancel the climate crisis
By Steve Koonin, AEIdeas. Nov 12, 2021
Let’s not let finance and banking turn green
Let’s not make old mistakes
By former Czech President Klaus, Via The Reference Frame, Nov 17, 2021
Lazard Wind and Solar Costs, Part 2
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Nov 16, 2021
“Wind and solar cannot replace coal and natural gas on a one for one basis … They are not interchangeable LEGO pieces.”
Still waiting for cheap offshore wind
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Nov 17, 2021
The Palaeoclimate Problem
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Nov 18, 2021
[SEPP Comment: The post discusses more trickery, combining model results with proxy data without establishing a standardization period when the model is compared to data. Then, extrapolating to previous eras without showing that other variables were comparable during the extrapolated period to those during the standardization period.]
Sea Level Rise Misinformation: Fear Mongering By Cop26, DOD, NPR & Mainstream Media
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Nov 17, 2021
Video 3.5 feet by 2050?
The Denigration of the Department of Defense By Climate Crisis Politics
By Jim Steele, A Walk On the Natural Side, Nov 13, 2021
Link to: “The Role and Status of DoD Red Teaming Activities”
By Staff, Defense Science Board Task Force, Sep 1, 2003
The Death of Democracy. America is Ruled by The Bureaucrats for The Bureaucrats
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 18, 2021
Defending the Orthodoxy
IPCC AR6: Low-likelihood, high-impact [LLHI] events, unspun edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 17, 2021
“In summary, the future occurrence of LLHI events linked to climate extremes is generally associated with low confidence, but cannot be excluded, especially at global warming levels above 4°C.”
IPCC AR6 Technical Summary
Multiple Authors, IPCC, Accessed Nov 20, 2021
Cop26 took us one step closer to combating the climate crisis
By Christiana Figueres, The Guardian, Nov 15, 2021 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
“Compromise was inevitable, but still the conference increased the speed of action with three important developments.”
John Kerry says US ‘won’t have coal’ by 2030
By Kyle Morris, Fox News, Nov 10, 2021
Natural feedback or human activities? A new study points to agricultural and industrial sources as the main cause to the soaring atmospheric methane
Press Release, Via WUWT, Nov 18, 2021
Link to paper: Anthropogenic emissions are the main contribution to the rise of atmospheric methane (1993-2017)
By Zhen Zhang, et al. China Science Publishing & Media Ltd. Via National Science Review, Nov 11, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Meaning little.]
Scientists Skeptical on How Alive 1.5 Temperature Limit Is
While world leaders hail the Glasgow climate pact as a good compromise that keeps a key temperature limit alive, scientists are much more skeptical.
By Seth Borenstein, Associated Press, Nov 14, 2021 H/t Bernie Kepshire]
[SEPP Comment: The concept was fabricated by the UN.]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
The Rich World — Not Sub-Saharan Africa — Needs to Lead on Decarbonization
By Seaver Wang, Vijaya Ramachandran, and Zeke Hausfather, Breakthrough Institute, Nov 15, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Complete with propaganda photo of emissions from chimneys blackening the sky, but CO2 is invisible! False dilemma. Erratic wind and solar do not provide energy security!]
50 years of predictions that the climate apocalypse is nigh
By Post Editorial Board, New York Post, Nov 12, 2021 [H/t Hugh Kendrick]
Hansen: 4-6 Degrees US Warming By 2020
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 18, 2021
Questioning the Orthodoxy
On Belief in the Tooth Fairy: The Battle of Britain’s Climate 2021-2030
By Iain Aitken, WUWT, Nov 18, 2021
Requiem for COP26: James Watt (‘the king said sail, but the wind said no…’)
By Pierre Desrochers and Joanna Szurmak, Master Resource, Nov 16, 2021
So, about those penguins
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 17, 2021
The silly science of climate alarmism
By David Wojick, CFACT, Nov 19, 2021
COP26 Ends In Humiliating Failure
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 14, 2021
The absurdly pathetic “result” of COP26
By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, Nov 14, 2021
At COP 26, Scant Mention Of Those Dying From Extreme Energy Poverty
By Robert Bryce, Forbes, Nov 12, 2021
Be Thankful That COP26 Has Ended
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Nov 14, 2021
It’s all over
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 17, 2021
“The overpromising organizers seem not to have realized China and India needed coal power and would not give it up. How did they reach such a place of impenetrable ignorance after 26 years of these conferences?”
After Glasgow, 1.5 Is Dead – Get Over It
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, Nov 14, 2021
[SEPP Comment: It seems the UK political leadership is willing to destroy its economy to show leadership in climate.]
Here’s why COP26 was a total waste of time, money, and carbon
By Paul Nuttall, RT, Nov 15, 2021
COP 26: The UN climate conference in Glasgow was everything we expected: Bountiful laughter
By Dr. Jay Lehr, Robert Lyman, CFACT, Nov 15, 2021
COP 26 Cables: The Glasgow Pact Is a Cry for Central Planning
By Kent Lassman, Nation Review, Nov 16, 2021
COP26’s UK Hosts Peddle Climate Misinformation
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Energy, Nov 17, 2021
COP 26: With Biden’s help the COP goes wild
By David Wojick, CFACT, Nov 12, 2021
COP26: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Glasgow
By Staff, Carbon Brief, Nov 15, 2021
Change in US Administrations
How the House spending bill addresses climate change
By Tik Root and Dino Grandoni, The Washington Post, Nov 19, 2021
“The credit on electric vehicles, for instance, would increase from the current maximum of $7,500 to $12,500 for cars that are manufactured in union-organized factories in the United States. Car buyers would get the rebates right at the time of sale, instead having to wait until they’ve filed their taxes.”
The Most Wasteful Infrastructure Bill Ever?
By Ben Lieberman, CEI, Nov 12, 2021
“For example, the bill provides $7.5 billion in subsidies for electric vehicle charging stations and includes requirements that poor inner-city neighborhoods get their share. Yet, few residents in these communities have electric vehicles, and there is little reason to expect that to change. Most likely, these expensive charging stations will sit unused in the middle of communities with more pressing needs.”
[SEPP Comment: Can the intercity poor take advantage of the generous tax breaks with immediate write-offs that buyers of high-cost EVs get?]
Biden sends 2016 climate treaty to Senate for ratification
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Nov 16, 2021
Problems in the Orthodoxy
India and China Set Aside Differences to Resist Carbon Imperialism
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Markets, Nov 19, 2021
Massive gap found between nations’ reporting, actual emissions: analysis
By Mychael Schnell, The Hill, Nov 8, 2021
[SEPP Comment: A surprise?]
Seeking a Common Ground
Climate Retreat: Thomas Friedman on COP26 (energy density, anyone?)
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Nov 17, 2021
Science, Policy, and Evidence
A Class Act Expelled From School
By A Victorian Teacher, Quadrant, Nov 19, 2021
“The lunacy of it all is that the protected are demanding that the unprotected partake of the protection that the protected have used, because the protection that the protected have used isn’t protecting them from either the protected or the unprotected. It’s like something out of a Monty Python movie.”
Models v. Observations
CO2 and Temperature
By Andy May, CO2 Science, Nov 16, 2021
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V24/nov/a1.php
See link immediately below
Autocorrelation in CO2 and Temperature Time Series
By Andy May, CO2 Science, Nov 16, 2021
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V24/nov/a2.php
Model Issues
New Study: There Was Less Arctic Sea Ice In The 1700s-1800s Than From 2002-2006 [In September]
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 15, 2021
Link to paper: The contribution of melt ponds to enhanced Arctic sea-ice melt during the Last Interglacial
By Rachel Diamond, et al. The Cryosphere, Nov 9, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Based on simulations using the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3)].
Scientists improving the ‘crystal ball’ for better climate predictions
By Nick Klenske, Horizon: The EU Research & Innovation Magazine, Nov 17, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
“The model will also improve our understanding of how much the world will eventually warm if atmospheric carbon dioxide levels double from those of pre-industrial times.”
“The models have spoken… now it’s time to act”
[SEPP Comment: Another model contradicted by physical evidence.]
Measurement Issues — Surface
Heat Waves vs. Observed Data
By John Entwistle, WUWT, Nov 19, 2021
“What is clear is that a distance of approximately 300 miles and an altitude difference of 780 feet has produced very different temperature [trend] data in these two locations.”
Changing Weather
1771 Floods
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 18, 2021
1935 – Malibu Devastated By Forest Fire
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 18, 2021
1920 or 2020? Northam Australia Edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 17, 2021
Changing Climate
Natural variability in Pacific Ocean drives decade-long intensification in Pacific Walker circulation
by Li Yuan, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nov 15, 2021
Link to paper: A very likely weakening of Pacific Walker Circulation in constrained near-future projections
By Mingna Wu, et al. Nature Communications, Nov 11, 2021
From the abstract: “We find the phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which is an internal variability mode related to the Pacific, accounts for approximately 63% (~51–72%) of the observed PWC strengthening.”
[SEPP Comment: Based on model simulations, not observations.’
Stalagmites as key witnesses of the monsoon
Greenland meltwater stopped Gulf Stream and weakened Indian summer monsoon more than 100,000 years ago
Press Release by Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Nov 18, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
Link to paper: Penultimate deglaciation Asian monsoon response to North Atlantic circulation collapse
By Jasper A. Wassenburg, et al. Nature Geoscience, Nov 18, 2021
Pacific Ocean, not ice sheet, shifted West Coast storms south
By Staff Writers, Boulder CO (SPX), Nov 15, 2021
Link to paper: Air-sea coupling shapes North American hydroclimate response to ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum
By Dillon J. Amaya, et al. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Nov 12, 2021
Changing Seas
Climate Alarmists Are Planning To Ruin A Whole Village
By Staff, Congressional Insider, [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Sea Level Alarmism Unravels As Earth’s Coastlines Are Observed Expanding Since 1984
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 18, 2021
Link to paper: Efficient measurement of large-scale decadal shoreline change with increased accuracy in tide-dominated coastal environments with Google Earth Engine
By Yongjing .Mao, et al. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Nov 2021
The Great (Climate) Migration
By Chuck Dinerstein, ACSH, Nov 12, 2021
[SEPP Comment: The author fails to grasp the difference between normal sea level rise and claimed acceleration using data that has not been standardized with previous data.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Two icebreakers are on the way to rescue ice-locked ships on Northern Sea Route
Some 20 ships are either stuck or struggling to sail, as waters in the East Siberia Sea froze earlier than in recent years.
By Atle Staalesen, The Independent Barents Observer, Nov 10, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
About that big Greenland melt
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 17, 2021
Greenland Sees Significant Snow, Ice Mass Loss Slowdown Over Past Decade, Danish Data Show
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 14, 2021
Chukchi Sea ice that didn’t melt this summer is now 2+m thick between Wrangel Island and the shore
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 18, 2021
Polar bear habit more extensive in most areas of the Arctic compared to previous years
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 14, 2021
So about those glaciers
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 17, 2021
Lowering Standards
Freezing to Death? Don’t Worry, It’s Good for the Environment!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 17, 2021
From the Economics correspondent: “Where we don’t need to burn energy and do so, for example, because we prefer the house to be at 21 C (70 F) rather than a perfectly habitable 16 C (60 F), higher energy costs will make us think twice.”
[SEPP Comment: Why stop there? Water pipes don’t freeze until 0 C (32 F).]
BBC: Blackouts in Venezuela Prove Fossil Fuel is No More Reliable than Renewables
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 18, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
The facts: reporters exploit normal weather to fan climate fear
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Nov 16, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Claims including warmest month or year are in reality politically driven fictions
By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, ICECAP, Nov 17, 2021
Aussie ABC: “A renewable energy revolution is powering Australia’s $720bn mining and resources industry”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 15, 2021
Climate change: Seven ways to spot businesses greenwashing
By Beth Timmins, BBC News, Nov 8, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Symptoms include headaches, irritability
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 17, 2021
“Still, the possibilities here are endless. Should someone drown, well, climate change made the water deeper, wavier, grimmer or something. If they starve, climate change is killing the crops. It’s also apparently making kidney stones worse. And poison ivy. And poison oak. And what if, faced with all this fearmongering, people commit suicide?”
Harrabin Doubles Down
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 17, 2021
“The BBC has now seen that most of the world does not care a fig for climate change, and certainly is not going to impoverish itself to fight it. In turn pressure is starting to build at home as the public realises whatever we do on our own will have no effect at all.
“Harrabin knows he is losing the battle and is now having to resort to disinformation from the likes of King and Forster as he doubles down.”
BBC’s Fake GHGs Graph
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 15, 2021
Naomi Oreskes Slams Big Oil Climate Change Ads
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 19, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Rupert Darwall: After Glasgow we need a Net Zero referendum
The Glasgow climate conference represents a strategic defeat for the West and for Britain in particular.
By Rupert Darwall, Daily Telegraph, Via Net Zero Watch, Nov 15, 2021
“The West needed some sort of climate agreement to justify their domestic climate policies. Global warming is global. The West accounts for a declining share of global emissions.”
[SEPP Comment: A real poll not a trick survey?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Climate Activism’s Ugly Reality
You don’t improve the world via witch hunts, blacklists, and cruelty.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Nov 17, 2021
COP26: The truth behind the new climate change denial
By Rachel Schraer & Kayleen Devlin, BBC Reality Check, Nov 16, 2021
See link immediately below
Factchecking BBC’s “Reality Check”
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 18, 2021
“Why not ask the sceptics?
“We know that climate sceptics are no longer allowed on the BBC, but if they want to know what sceptics think, why did not the BBC actually ask some of them to contribute and have a proper debate with them, instead of fabricating the BBC version of denialism?”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
If You Read It In The Mainstream Media, It’s Wrong — Plastics Edition
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Nov 16, 2021
“When a religious or quasi-religious cause is in play, the human mind quickly becomes impervious to rational thought and appeals to evidence. That’s the essence of progressivism. I don’t expect the return of plastic bags or straws any time soon.”
Andrew Neil: BBC and Sky are acting as the ‘PR department of Greenpeace’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 17, 2021
But not for thee
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 17, 2021
“Hypocrisy is an issue. And not just a PR issue. It suggests that people are proposing solutions they know are not workable or, if workable, not tolerable. Which of course points to the big issue.
“It is that people who should know better frequently propose solutions with a proven track record of creating poverty and oppression, and it doesn’t trouble them because they know their wealth will insulate them from all the problems they inflict on others.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
The angry voice of youth
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 17, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Jailed Insulate Britain protester went globe-trotting in a gas-guzzling 4×4 pick-up truck
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 18, 2021
See link immediately below
Insulate Britain protesters jailed for defying road blockade ban
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 17, 2021
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Pentagon Spokesman Says Climate Change Is As Big A National Security Threat As China
The Biden administration’s refusal to distinguish between our principal military adversary and climate change is yet more evidence that the military is following ideology instead of winning our wars.
By John Lucas, The Federalist, Nov 16, 2021
Episode 77: Seeking Climate Justice from Space
With John Amos, Karen Jones, and Samira Patel, The Space Policy Show, Nov 18, 2021
“How can space satellites help identify pollution and unsustainable land use practices? From oil spills to methane super-emitters, the view from space can spotlight the worst polluters.”
[SEPP Comment; How about industrial wind and solar which fail frequently? Are they sustainable?]
Questioning European Green
Call to declare emergency as Britain faces energy crisis
By Staff, Net Zero Watch, Nov 18, 2021
Is Britain’s climate policy sustainable?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 15, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Is the planet that is in an Ice Age with frequent glaciations sustainable?]
The Net Zero Watch guide to decarbonising your life
By Andy Shaw, Net Zero Watch, Nov 11, 2021
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Green Murder — “Don’t let them get away with it” by Ian Plimer
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 15, 2021
Book review.
The GND has no plan to replace crude oil products [Green Neal Deal]
By Ronald Stein, CFACT, Nov 15, 2021
Funding Issues
Australia Begs for Foreign Investment to Fund Aussie Net Zero
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 15, 2021
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Net-Zero Gambit Sustainable Only by Gusher of Green Subsidies
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Nov 17, 2021
White House looks to rescue plan funding to ease burden of high heating costs
By Morgan Chalfant, The Hill, Nov 18, 2021
“The White House is encouraging states to quickly distribute assistance that was included in President Biden’s sweeping $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief law passed in March to lessen the burden of higher energy bills this winter.”
Governments risk ‘trillions’ in fossil fuel climate litigation
By Patrick Galey, Glasgow (AFP) Nov 12, 2021
“Kerry said trillions of dollars have been spent on subsidies ‘in the last five or six years. That is the definition of insanity.’”
[SEPP Comment: In oil rich countries, which ignore market price for the benefit of their public.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Milloy to EPA CASAC PM Subpanel: EPA’s assessment of PM2.5 is science fraud
By Steve Milloy, Junk Science.com. Nov 18, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Ideological Interests Fueling Global Energy Crisis
By John Hostettler, Life: Powered, Nov 9, 2021
As smog chokes Delhi, India struggles to ease off coal
Shrouded in toxic smog, New Delhi has shut down schools and workplaces. Though nations pledged to move away from coal at the UN climate summit, India is reluctant to replace the polluting fuel source.
By Martin Kuebler, DW, Nov 16, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Sources of smog include coal-fired power plants, traditional biofuels, agricultural burning, and even fireworks. A partial solution is building additional clean, coal-fired power plants which will horrify environmentalists.]
Energy Issues – Australia
Net Zero Sellout Barnaby Joyce Plays Climate Skeptic
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 16, 2021
Energy Issues — US
Stop Methane Emissions Now to Power the Regenerative Future
By Chris Romer, Real Clear Energy, Nov 17, 2021
“The world’s energy transition needs to be carefully planned and managed so climate action doesn’t impede developing nations’ economic growth and create energy shortages and price spikes. Unfortunately, some of this is playing out in Europe and parts of the U.S. today, where shortsighted policies have undermined baseload grid capacity, forcing a rise in coal use or dependence on fuels produced under less-than-ideal environmental standards.”
[SEPP Comment: “Carefully planned and managed” by those who don’t have a clue?]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Biden calls for probe over potential ‘illegal conduct’ behind rising gas prices
The US President said there is ‘mounting evidence’ of anti-consumer behaviour by oil and gas companies
By Dimitris Mavokefalidis, Energy Live News, Nov 18, 2021
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
COP 26 Encore: “U.S. to hold huge crude oil sale in the Gulf of Mexico”… Irony can be so ironic!
By David Middleton, WUWT, Nov 17, 2021
Return of King Coal?
EXPLAINER: Why quitting coal is so hard?
A look at the role coal plays in climate change and the energy system
By Karl Ritter, AP, Nov 14, 2021
“It’s also a fuel that is relatively easy to replace: Renewable alternatives to coal-fired power have been available for decades.”
[SEPP Comment: Bunk! Other than hydro, name one renewable that is plentiful and reliable.]
Activist Investor Push To End Coal Mining Is Backfiring
Editor OilPrice.com, Yahoo.com, Nov 13, 2021
Coal creation mechanism uncovered
By Staff Writers, University Park (SPX), Nov 12, 2021
Link to paper: Methoxyl stable isotopic constraints on the origins and limits of coal-bed methane
By M.K. Lloyd, et al. AAAS Science, Nov 11, 2021
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Industry’s First Complete Accident-Tolerant Nuclear Assembly in Operation at Calvert Cliffs
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Nov 11, 2021
How an AP1000 Plant Is Changing the Nuclear Power Paradigm Through District Heating, Desalination
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag. Nov 1, 2021
“As envisioned, the phased ‘Shandong Haiyang Nuclear Energy Heating Project’ could provide 300–400 terajoules of heat per year and produce 30 million tonnes of fresh water.”
Thorium-Fueled Reactors Offer Huge Potential Benefits for the Nuclear Power Industry
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, Nov 11, 2021
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Liquid fuels from carbon dioxide
Electrocatalyst converts CO2 into multicarbon products
Press Release, Science Daily, Nov 15, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Ultrastable Cu Catalyst for CO2 Electroreduction to Multicarbon Liquid Fuels by Tuning C–C Coupling with CuTi Subsurface
By Prof. Fei Hu, et al. German Chemical Society, Oct 1, 2021
[SEPP Comment: How costly?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Column: Enthusiastic idiocy vs. infrastructure optimization – two strategies for an energy transition
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Nov 16, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
Ford invents cable that can charge electric cars in about 5 minutes
Patent-pending technology developed with Purdue University
By Gary Gastelu, Fox News, Nov 15, 2021
[SEPP Comment: A promotional piece with no detail. Is it the battery or the cable that is the more limiting component?]
Environmental Industry
Plans To Dig the Biggest Lithium Mine in the US Face Mounting Opposition
Resistance to Lithium Americas’ plans to dig an element critical to the energy transition at Nevada’s Thacker Pass shows that “clean” energy could face the same challenges as fossil fuels.
By Cayte Bosler, Inside Climate News, Nov 7, 2021 [H/t CEI]
“’Electric cars simply cause a different sort of harm: instead of the Gulf Oil Spill, we have the bulldozing of an increasingly rare desert habitat,’ wrote Wilbert, the Protect Thacker Pass organizer and author. ‘To save the planet, we have to stop destroying. A wound is a wound is a wound.’”
Other News that May Be of Interest
GE Splitting Into Three Companies, Will Spin Off Energy Group
General Electric (GE) has announced plans to split into three separate companies, breaking up into publicly traded groups for its energy, healthcare, and aviation divisions.
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Nov 9, 2021
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Banning Climate Misinformation
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 18, 2021
EU to Restrict Coffee Imports to Combat Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 18, 2021
EU to Restrict Coffee Imports to Combat Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 18, 2021
Should I spend a quarter of the value of my home to reduce its carbon footprint?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 15, 2021
‘Trans Nonbinary Liberation Is Eco-Justice!’
By Kevin Williamson, National Review, Nov 14, 2021
“In Glasgow, the substance of climate-change policy takes a backseat to the most useless kind of boutique social radicalism.”
ARTICLES
1. The COP26 Summit and the Global Age of Shams
The intellectual and political disarray on display in Glasgow was terrifying.
By Walter Russell Mead, WSJ, Nov. 15, 2021
The key points for TWTW are presented in the discussion in the main text, above.
*****************
2. Glasgow’s Climate of Unreality
The latest climate confab achieved little, which is for the best.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Nov 14, 2021
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins with:
“The latest global climate confab ended on the weekend in Glasgow having produced little of consequence. How could it have done otherwise? The conferees who warn that the Apocalypse is nigh absent draconian energy policies are disconnected from political and economic reality.
“The climateers couldn’t agree whether they had failed to forestall climate catastrophe or set the world on a new path to banning fossil fuels. The apocalyptics were gloomy that countries failed to make more firm commitments to reduce their greenhouse-gas emissions and failed even to agree to phase out coal after a last-minute intervention by India and China. Perhaps those nations noticed that even Europe is having to fall back on more coal power these days amid an energy crisis and rising prices.
“U.S. envoy John Kerry was more optimistic, as usual. You have to admire his ability to spin the media that ‘United States reclaims leadership role,’ as the Washington Post headlined it. He cited a statement by the U.S. and China that they will work together to reduce emissions.
“Mr. Kerry could hardly admit failure. The international commands from Glasgow are supposed to justify President Biden’s agenda to regulate and tax U.S. oil and gas production out of business, while spending $550 billion in green-energy subsidies.”
After discussing China building more coal plants, the editorial concludes:
“Also in the real world, it isn’t clear that even Western leaders can deliver on their anti-carbon pledges. Inflation caused in part by spiking energy prices is hurting Mr. Biden and the Democrats, who have been left begging the Saudis and Russians to drill more oil so prices fall. You can hear them laughing in the Kremlin.
“‘If [Mr. Biden] were asking them to boost their production over five years, I’d quit,’ Mr. Kerry told reporters, by way of trying to square this circle. ‘But he’s not. He’s asking them to boost production in this immediate moment.’ Lord, make us green, but not yet.
“The climate elites want the public to believe that only by turning over more of the economy to their political control can we avoid climate disaster. And by the way, the public will pay for this in higher energy costs and shortages as we leap toward the green Neverland. Whenever Western voters are honestly presented with this choice, they say no.
“That’s why Western climateers want to use the quiet coercion of financial regulations to allocate capital and squeeze fossil-fuel producers. This will do some harm, but it won’t matter at all to global temperatures.
“For that matter, neither will anything else that happened in Glasgow. What will matter is research in new technology, adaptation to cope with the uncertain effects of a changing climate, and whether or not the world grows wealthier to better cope with that uncertain future.”
There’s comprehensive roundups, and then there’s throw the kitchen sink at it roundups. After this roundup I am all rounded out.
If I may be allowed to précis…. “An energy policy without fossil fuels in the mix won’t work”
Just saying…_
“Fossil fuels are needed to lift the poor from extreme poverty, as China has clearly demonstrated.”
What really lifted China’s poor was/is Western corporations traitorously moving their businesses to China.
See history, United Nations Lima Protocol/Agreement with member nations signed in 1975 agreeing to allow “developing nations” to have many or most of each nation’s manufacturing industry to assist the people into prosperity. At first thought not a bad plan but thinking harder, and now in hindsight, just another example of UN undermining developed nations and their prosperity.
To undermine the capitalist system (free enterprise, free markets) as admitted by various UN Officials including Christiana Figureres on 15 October 2015 before the IPCC Paris Conference, that climate change is a diversion (not her words) from the real agenda.
The man who first discovered the huge Iron Ore deposits in Western Australia, Lang Hancock, was once asked how to help the poor. He replied by not becoming one of them. Meaning wealth creation and taxes help the poor.
And when nations move up the wealth ladder their populations stop rapid expansion. So when we all move back to poverty, we can entertain ourselves by pumping out more babies.
Some probably useless information;
“From the Ute tribe, meaning “people of the mountains.”
The Navajo Indians were referred to by the Apache as “Yuttahih” meaning “one that is higher up.” Europeans misunderstood this term to refer to the tribes living higher in the mountains than the Navajo, the Utes, and the territory was called the land of the Utes, Utah.”
I was rejected by the ute tribe because I had a LandCruiser 100 Series.
They did let me pull them over few sand dunes though.
Until not long ago I had a German Shepherd Dog who was professionally trained before I purchased him as an adult Dog (explosives detection and other training), his kennel name was Utah.
And he never chased utes.
With any luck, some terrorists will descend upon COP 27 and kidnap all the “climate dignitaries,” and the rest of the world can then tell the terrorists they can keep them and do to them whatever they please.
Going to take a lot of terrorists to corral 25,000 plus participants 🙂
I know the headchoppers are crazy, but I doubt they’re that crazy…_
You missed out the absolute highlight of the COP26 jamboree- in the British marquee where the great and good were holding court – a robotic dog was running around and greeting those in attendance – isn’t it good to know how our taxpayers money is squandered !!
To take a photo of someone taking your photo, I ask … is that a selfie by proxy?
My comment was in reference to the leading photo this week.
The link to the article above, Thugocracy: Science in the Postmodern World (Roger Pielke Jr. as victim) is not correct.
It should be:
https://www.masterresource.org/climate-cancel-culture/thugocracy-science-roger-pieklke-jr/