More storms like Hurricane Sandy could be in the East Coast’s future, potentially costing billions of dollars in damage and economic losses.
AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION
CREDIT: NASA GODDARD
WASHINGTON—By the late 21st century, northeastern U.S. cities will see worsening hurricane outcomes, with storms arriving more quickly but slowing down once they’ve made landfall. As storms linger longer over the East Coast, they will cause greater damage along the heavily populated corridor, according to a new study.
In the new study, climate scientist Andra Garner at Rowan University analyzed more than 35,000 computer-simulated storms. To assess likely storm outcomes in the future, Garner and her collaborators compared where storms formed, how fast they moved and where they ended from the pre-industrial period through the end of the 21st century.
The researchers found that future East Coast hurricanes will likely cause greater damage than storms of the past. The research predicted that a greater number of future hurricanes will form near the East Coast, and those storms will reach the Northeast corridor more quickly. The simulated storms slow to a crawl as they approach the East Coast, allowing them to produce more wind, rain, floods, and related damage in the Northeast region. The longest-lived tropical storms are predicted to be twice as long as storms today.
The study was published in Earth’s Future, which publishes interdisciplinary research on the past, present and future of our planet and its inhabitants.
The changes in storm speed will be driven by changes in atmospheric patterns over the Atlantic, prompted by warmer air temperatures. While Garner and her colleagues note that more research remains to be done to fully understand the relationship between a warming climate and changing storm tracks, they noted that potential northward shifts in the region where Northern and Southern Hemisphere trade winds meet or slowing environmental wind speeds could be to blame.
“When you think of a hurricane moving along the East Coast, there are larger scale wind patterns that generally help push them back out to sea,” Garner said. “We see those winds slowing down over time.” Without those winds, the hurricanes can overstay their welcome on the coast.
Garner, whose previous work focused on the devastating East Coast effects of storms like Hurricane Sandy, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic, said the concern raised by the new study is that more storms capable of producing damage levels similar to Sandy are likely.
And the longer storms linger, the worse they can be, she said.
“Think of Hurricane Harvey in 2017 sitting over Texas, and Hurricane Dorian in 2019 over the Bahamas,” she said. “That prolonged exposure can worsen the impacts.”
From 2010 to 2020, U.S. coastlines were hit by 19 tropical cyclones that qualified as billion-dollar disasters, generating approximately $480 billion in damages, adjusted for inflation. If storms sit over coasts for longer stretches, that economic damage is likely to increase as well. For the authors, that provides clear economic motivation to stem rising greenhouse gas emissions.
“The work produced yet more evidence of a dire need to cut emissions of greenhouse gases now to stop the climate warming,” Garner said.
Co-author Benjamin Horton, who specializes in sea-level rise and leads the Earth Observatory of Singapore at Nanyang Technological University, said, “This study suggests that climate change will play a long-term role in increasing the strength of storms along the east coast of the United States and elsewhere. Planning for how to mitigate the impact of major storms must take this into account.”
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Notes for Journalists:
This research study was published with open access and is freely available. Download a PDF copy of the paper here. Neither the paper nor this press release is under embargo.
Paper title:
“Evolving tropical cyclones tracks in the North Atlantic in a warming climate”
Authors:
- Andra J. Garner (corresponding author) Department of Environmental Science, Rowan University, Glassboro, New Jersey, USA
- Robert E. Kopp, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey, USA
- Benjamin P. Horton, Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
JOURNAL
Earth s Future
DOI
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
22-Nov-2021
So the US only needs to spend trillions of dollars to save billions … greentard logic right there.
That is distant future they like to predict, but can’t predict present a month ahead. This made me laugh:
“Dozens of ships stuck in Arctic as ice freezes early in reverse of recent warming winters
Shipping firms blame the Russian Met office for a forecast that failed to predict the early ice.
More than two dozen cargo vessels are stuck in Russia’s Arctic ice, waiting for ice-breakers to come to their rescue, after an inaccurate forecast from the country’s Met Office.”
Of course Russians knew about it, but Putin likes to keep his icebreakers busy and earning dosh.
Mother nature will have its revenge on disrespectful.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/22/dozens-ships-stuck-arctic-ice-freezes-early-reverse-recent-warming/
Vuk,
They’re Marxists, they can’t predict ANYTHING accurately! Not even their own certain failures in all their endeavors! Fortunately, they have developed a philosophy to tide them over the rough patches:
“One man’s death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic!”
If one remembers that this is the basis for virtually ALL of their actions, everything starts making a great deal more sense suddenly! That, and never letting a self-made crisis go to waste, should be seen as the prime directives of their cult religion!
Save what? The real costs of storm damage are vastly less today than a century ago, or a half century ago. Between improved stormwater management systems, improved coastal armoring, buildings that are much more resistant to hurricane force winds, etc. etc, it is virtually guaranteed that storm damages will continue to plummet over this next century.
So even if the author’s GIGO computer (unreal) forecast were correct – it’s clearly not – its predictions of greater storm damage are utter BS.
“…there are larger scale wind patterns that generally help push them back out to sea,” Garner said. “We see those winds slowing down over time.”
So I guess that that is bad news for at-sea windmills?
“We see those winds slowing down over time.”
We do? Please give us some evidence.
Come on Griff, here’s your chance.
It’s like….it’s like these storms have minds…..and they are determined to show man that that warming the climate must stop …or else. Bad man must stop the warming now.
I recall, some year ago, an article about what the ~30 year shift of persistent pressure areas over the north Atlantic (Atlantic multidecadal oscillation?) would bring. One major expectation, based on general mechanics and previous cycles, is that certain persistent wind patterns that blow away from the east coast will reverse direction towards the coast.
The article predicted, among other things, that this does, and would again, increase high tide depths along much of the northeast coast, which would lead to false claims of sudden sea level rise. Perhaps storms directed more inland, or having a harder time running out to sea, might also be a result of this shift?
Since this is apparently common knowledge among meteorologists, the warmists might consider it a good chance to make a prediction that might actually come true.
Tropical Storm Sandy.
Please don’t confuse the CliSciFi experts with the correct terminology.
Yes, these “experts”, who pretend they can forecast the behavior of hurricanes in future, can’t even accurately describe their past behavior.
Besides , it has never been unusual for those storms to stall, loiter, or loop around and that steering or lack there of, is determined by weather!
It wasn’t even a tropical storm any longer since it had a cool core.
“post-tropical cyclone”
“While Garner and her colleagues note that more research remains to be done to fully understand the relationship between a warming climate and changing storm tracks”
Translated as: Our computer simulations have created yet another “scientists say”, “worse than we thought” headline for your alarmist propaganda machine, if you want more of the same, send money now.
…but back in reality….
Not a single Category 3-strength storm has roamed the tropical oceans since Sept. 25.
The absence of storms of this intensity at this time of year hasn’t occurred in at least 65 years.
All across the world, the tropics have been devoid of significant cyclone activity. Not a single hurricane-strength storm has formed anywhere on the planet since Oct. 29, a calm occupying both the northern and southern hemispheres.
Aha! Climate Change.
Sssssssh! Don’t disturb the narrative!
“In the new study, climate scientist Andra Garner at Rowan University analyzed more than 35,000 computer-simulated storms. To assess likely storm outcomes in the future”
Are those the same models that give storm tracks three states wide? And are even then often wrong?
Yep!
The nice thing about computer simulated storms is that the researchers never get wet studying them.
“35,000 computer-simulated storms”.
There are even more computer-simulated alien invasions being modelled by citizen scientists across the world.
We really should focus on the bigger computer-simulated threat.
They had to use computer models, because they can’t find any support in real world data.
“The work produced yet more evidence of a dire need to cut emissions of greenhouse gases now to stop the climate warming,” Garner said.
I wonder if this is the real motivated reasoning behind the findings in this paper??
To my best belief this “work” produced no evidence at all.
My immediate thought. Computer simulations are not evidence of anything. They do not constitute “facts” or “data” or “evidence” or, for that matter, science.
“analyzed more than 35,000 computer-simulated storms.”
And then took an average? They usually do
They include sorted (preferred) imaginary storms.
250 km is 155 miles.
Basically, any storm hitting the East Coast Mid-Atlantic to above Maine fits their selected “profile”.
Averaged, sorted, selected, all to promote their catastrophic anthropogenic global warming beliefs.
Do any of these clowns ever emerge from their window-less computer labs and take a walk outside in the real world?
If they did that, they couldn’t spend time with their simulated girl friends.
So we think we control hurricanes now.
I’m going to have to be rude:
models = complete bollocks
and in other fairy tales…
and indeed we already see rain systems parking themselves over areas for longer periods of time and dumping huge amounts of water.
We saw it this year in Germany
when life gives you lemons make lemonade
And in Saudi Arabia? Namibia? Peru? OK, we’d better average them.
Nitwit
We saw it this year in Germany
Did you griff?
What did you see in the UK in 1960, 1968, 1978 etc?
Over the last 500 years there have been over a dozen storms that exceeded that one. But for griff, history starts in 1979.
The 1987 hurricane was a once in 300 years event.
Imagine if that had happened this October what they would be claiming….
Actually, we didn’t. But as usual, griff will completely ignore history in order to better support what he wants to be true.
In fact we see nothing of the sort. There are long historical records, going back centuries, with the exact same profile as the events you mention. AGW true believers have found no unique weather attributable to human CO2 emissions.
you keep telling us that, mate, but when someone here gives you evidence to the contrary you can’t or won’t refute that evidence
WUWT?
Thanks for the report, Charles!
The authors failed to highlight High Priest Mickey Mann’s contribution to this study!
He stands, like Gandalf at the Bridge of Khazad-dum, holding his Holy Scepter high; and stops the Dread AMO in it’s tracks! I’m surprised that they didn’t find a computer model where a new, higher intensity hurricane forms and then sits, unmoved by cries of despair or prayer, directly over New York City!!
Maybe High Priest Mickey can venture into the modeling universe, where he is a Warrior of Great Renown, and drive the Holy Hurricane to cycle constantly from NYC to DC and back again, ad infinitude! That should solve a lot of our current problems; like the trash accumulating in the streets of NYC, and the garbage wandering aimlessly in the corridors of DC! If only it could pop over to Commifornia every now and again to wash the accumulated dust and poop off the streets of San Fransicko and LA!
Tremendous rant abolition man, great stuff. Thanks.
“By the late 21st century, northeastern U.S. cities will see worsening hurricane outcomes…”
But, the new mayor of Boston, will save that city from climate disaster because she signed an ordinance so that the city will divest in any company that makes more than 15% of its profit from fossil fuels. https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=mayor+of+Boston+not+invest+in+fossil+fuels
If they include making profits from anything made from fossil fuels, they’ll have to go back to stuffing the pension in mattresses.
So much for the stereotype of Asians being intelligent.
Several people ran for that office- I think NOT including any white males- mostly ethnic females. Very strange indeed. I always thought that job was reserved for Irish men!
Since when does Boston have money to invest? I would have assumed that they are constantly on the brink of bankruptcy and in need of ever-increasing state and federal aid from Chahlie Baekah and Dementia Joe.
It’s a wealthy city and it has high taxes. Probably mostly pension money.
“climate scientist Andra Garner at Rowan University analyzed more than 35,000 computer-simulated storms”
Were they dancing on the head of a pin?
Sorry I couldn’t read any more as I was losing the will to live.
Thank you, Jay!
I think in this case the computer models were dancing WITH pinheads!
More storms like Hurricane Sandy could be in the East Coast’s future, potentially costing billions of dollars”
Fine, now let’s see some evidence, you know, like they (used to) have in courtrooms
Since a storm like Sandy hits NYC every 70 to 80 years, I’m pretty confident that NYC will be hit again.
I’m equally confident that all this has nothing to do with “climate change” however you wish to define it. It’s just weather.
actually I think it is more frequent than that
Guess they will be looking for a good Broadway show
More hurricanes didn’t work out so well.
No more hurricanes but they will be more intense didn’t work out so well.
Now Computer Model Productions in association with RCP 8.5 brings you
Lingering Hurricanes. You must be afraid now.
It’s called whatever is going on outside your window that is “bad” = “climate change.”
And, of course, there will be more of it. Until there isn’t. At which point, replace it with whatever is going on outside your window that is “bad” and repeat.
We must also start naming individual thunderstorms. We could have an exponential unprecedented increase in the number of named storms.
It’s not actually raining here, but I just looked out the window and saw a puffy little cloud that I decided to call storm Naomi.
So, just more of the same lies and fake science sh*t spew from the same liars and sh*t spewers who lie and spew sh*t endlessly without end. Got it.
CoveringClimateNow.org can pretty much show you what the coming week’s climate spew will be in the MSM….About 400 news outlets dedicated to climate apocalypse stories to increase media readership….possibly fully aware of their “useful idiots” status.
Sad part? They would increase that and make far more money by simply running soft porn content.
GIGO
’nuff said
I agree but disagree. I agree that hurricanes will increase but disagree to the reason. I believe the historical record shows hurricanes are worse in solar minimums and we are heading into one now. I am no longer a working scientist but have worked with/studied/watched sunspots since the late 1960’s including the time that these “scientists” were predicting the minimum that we are in now.
You might be that you no longer being paid for it, but if you are still thinking, you are still a working scientist.
Remember when the warm mongers took glee in the idea that warming-enhanced hurricanes would exclusively wreak their havoc upon red states in the south?
35,000 simulated storms. This sounds like an old Rowan and Martin skit from Laugh-In.
Ha, yes! Someone off camera turns on a big fan and throws a bucket of water on Goldie Hawn, simulating a storm.
Result is Goldie in a revealing wet T-shirt and Artie Johnson saying “Very Interesting” with a German accent.
I can see someone watching that simulation 35,000 times.
😜
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”, Yogi Berra, the the real climate scientist.
1) Gross assumptions.
2) Fantasy storms.
3) Run using IPCC’s impossible RCP 8.5 scenario.
All fantasies and delusions.
Did they arrive at this conclusion with computer models or chicken entrails?
that far out both are as accurate…
I’d actually give the edge to chicken entrails – at least they don’t have any bias.
They said could so it’s not definite.
If the affect is real, it should be visible in real world storms.
The fact that this affect can only be found in computer models and not in the real world should be your first clue that this is all fantasy.
Storms are not more violent or persistent…it’s just that more people move to and live in regions of the planet that experience these storms.
Did I miss the part where they compared any of their results or conclusions to reality, or are we just skipping that now?
So-called “climate science” has been divorced from reality for a long time – you aren’t keeping up.
From the article: “More storms like Hurricane Sandy could be in the East Coast’s future, potentially costing billions of dollars in damage and economic losses.”
Well, Hurricane Sandy was actually two big storm fronts, Sandy and a Noreaster coming out of Canada, that had combined over New York.
So you are saying more combination storms are in our future?
Silly American Geophysical Union and your “Peer-reviewed Publication.
Another Science Association promoting climate change propaganda.
Their leadership is totally corrupt.
Do you supposed they missed the fact that Sandy was actually two storms combined? I don’t. I think they are deliberatately misconstruing the events to make it appear that Sandy was a superstorm all in itself and more are to come.
Lies, distortions and climate change propaganda is what we get out of the American Geophysical Union. It’s members ought to resign in protest at the distortions of facts that issue from their organization.
I believe 100s already have, but they’re just ignored, gaslighted or cancelled.
Over the last 500 years, “authoritative” Wikipedia (cough) estimates that “Eighty-five tropical or subtropical cyclones have affected the state of New York”. So at an average rate of 17 storms per century, the authors’ >35,000 computer-simulated storms would in reality take over 200,000 years to occur. That alone shows the utter absurdity of their pseudo-research.
What the paper really demonstrates is the vast number of climate alarmist researchers lingering over northeastern cities.
From the article: ““The work produced yet more evidence of a dire need to cut emissions of greenhouse gases now to stop the climate warming,” Garner said.”
The work produced computer models, not evidence.
There is no evidence that CO2 will make hurricanes stronger, or linger longer than “normal”, and there is no evidence that CO2 is causing the Earth’s temperatures to climb.
They are working on totally unsubstantiated assumptions, and feeding these assumptions into their computer models and then think the output is evidence of something.
This is how Alarmist Climate Science is carried out.
You could harden the cities that will hypothetically experience these hypothetically “lingering” storms for a pittance compared with the trillions they want to spend cutting emissions that in reality do nothing to the hypothetical storms.
So there’s that.
The Build Back Better (for the northeast) Plan aka Schumer Rules plan accepts cash, check, crypto, and your next two generations of labor to pay for their regional wish list.
I wonder if this paper has been published in Mandarin or Hindi.
I read the article and all I can say is
HOGWASH
And Abraham waved his staff and the winds slowed and then Abraham waved his staff again and the Gulf Stream current slowed. Then Abraham addressed the UN and demanded all the bank granaries be opened or he would bring forth a……. Attention: Your 30-day free trial of the Abraham simulation game has ended.
Thirty-five thousand computer-simulated storms? At an average of 17 or so named storms in the Atlantic per year, have these people tried to simulate every anticipated hurricane until AD 4000? What about the next Little Ice Age, which may occur before then?
Nobody should try to blame “global warming” for the damage caused by Hurricane Sandy in late October 2012. Most hurricanes that move up the east coast of North America (north of Cape Hatteras) either never make landfall (the eye remains out to sea) or possibly make landfall in Newfoundland or Nova Scotia, or (more rarely) Long Island or Cape Cod.
About five days before Sandy made landfall (when it was still over Jamaica in the Caribbean), weather forecasters predicted that Sandy would be steered into the mid-Atlantic coast by an unusually COLD air mass over the North Atlantic (east of Newfoundland and south of Greenland). This turned out to be accurate, as the eye of Sandy struck near Atlantic City, New Jersey. Sandy also brought heavy snow to West Virginia, which was unusually early in late October.
The unusual path of Sandy was not due to global warming, but local cooling!
More computer games?
” … more than 35,000 computer-simulated storms … ”
Do these games have points and penalties? Who is getting the higher scores?
“From 2010 to 2020, U.S. coastlines were hit by 19 tropical cyclones that qualified as billion-dollar disasters, generating approximately $480 billion in damages, adjusted for inflation. If storms sit over coasts for longer stretches, that economic damage is likely to increase as well. For the authors, that provides clear economic motivation to stem rising greenhouse gas emissions.”
That bolded belief by the authors qualifies as 2021 Non-sequitur of the Year Award in my book. And it merely shows how climate change is a pagan religion based on blind faith and nonsensical belief.
Ending the construction of wood frame houses along the coast would save far more in “damages” than all the greenhouse gas emission reductions we could possibly make, which will do absolutely nothing about weather related damages.
Yet nobody proposes such common sense and risk free solutions.
So basically their proposal is “spend trillions we don’t have to spend and commit economic suicide and you could hypothetically save billions.”
It’s amazing what passes for possessing psychic powers these days.
I miss the crystal balls, madras tapestries and flickering candles that real psychics use.
From the paper:
Yes Virginia, they really are that dumb.
Why are they running simulations for the late 21st century? Everything on the planet will be dead well before then due to climate change or so I’ve been told.
Perhaps they ought to simulate who’s going to win the lottery for the same date.
Dr. Garner, lead author, is a Penn State graduate and is coauthor on at least one paper with Mann, so she appears to be a Michael Mann disciple/sycophant. Rowan University is a refocused former normal school (i.e., basic teachers’ college), and her department is staffed by kids barely out of diapers who have likely never had real jobs. This is confirmed by the utter nonsense being promoted by this pseudo-research paper.
We have far too many academic environmental sciences faculty and students in thousands of colleges and universities vying for a piece of the government pie. In general, an “environmental studies” degree isn’t worth the paper on which it is printed. These folks don’t make/build/manufacture anything useful to society, so most will have to be redirected into jobs in other fields. Time to defund these departments.
Lost interest as soon as I read “computer simulations” no matter how many of them were run.
More simulations of the expected outcomes. If they expected to find a magic grasshopper driving tornados they would simulate that. Useless drivel.
Wow a real turkey for thanksgiving
Video games. So what?