Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Despite humans being tropical apes, we apparently find it very difficult to survive outside of temperate zones where average annual temperature ranges from 52F – 59F (11C-15C).
Climate change could bring near-unliveable conditions for 3bn people, say scientists
Each degree of warming above present levels corresponds to roughly 1bn people falling outside of ‘climate niche’
Steven Bernard, Dan Clark and Sam Joiner
Up to 3bn out of the projected world population of about 9bn could be exposed to temperatures on a par with the hottest parts of the Sahara by 2070, according to research by scientists from China, US and Europe.
However, rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could halve the number of people exposed to such hot conditions. “The good news is that these impacts can be greatly reduced if humanity succeeds in curbing global warming,” said study co-author Tim Lenton, climate specialist and director of the Global Systems Institute at Exeter university.
The report highlights how the majority of humans live in a very narrow mean annual temperature band of 11C-15C (52F-59F). Researchers noted that despite all innovations and migrations, people had mostly lived in these climate conditions for several thousand years.
“This strikingly constant climate niche likely represents fundamental constraints on what humans need to survive and thrive,” said Professor Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University, who co-ordinated the research with his Chinese colleague Chi Xu, of Nanjing University.
…Read more: https://www.ft.com/content/072b5c87-7330-459b-a947-be6767a1099d
The abstract of the study;
Future of the human climate niche
Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, and Marten Scheffer
All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth’s land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.Read more: https://www.pnas.org/content/117/21/11350
My home in Queensland, Australia, experiences an average annual temperature of around 77F (25C), 18F above the alleged human climate niche.
Last time I checked our state enjoyed a prosperous agriculture and mining economy, with vibrant cities full of happy people who mostly don’t own heavy overcoats.
The far North of Australia which includes some of our most prosperous agricultural and mining regions, are even hotter.
Then you have nations like Singapore, Indonesia, Kenya, and Colombia, all established or up and coming economic success stories which sit right on the equator. Venezuela used to be successful, but their problems have nothing to do with global warming.
These glaring exceptions to the “human environmental niche” should be considered strong evidence that prosperity is possible outside the 52F – 59F zone where the bulk of people live. But the authors dismiss this, arguing there is a ongoing causal element to human distribution.
The Question of Causality.
Why have humans remained concentrated so consistently in the same small part of the potential climate space? The full complex of mechanisms responsible for the patterns is obviously hard to unravel. The constancy of the core distribution of humans over millennia in the face of accumulating innovations is suggestive of a fundamental link to temperature. However, one could argue that the realized niche may merely reflect the ancient needs of agrarian production. Perhaps, people stayed and populations kept expanding in those places, even if the corresponding climate conditions had become irrelevant? Three lines of evidence suggest that this is unlikely, and that instead human thriving remains largely constrained to the observed realized temperature niche for causal reasons.
First, an estimated 50% of the global population depends on smallholder farming (19), and much of the energy input in such systems comes from physical work carried out by farmers, which can be strongly affected by extreme temperatures (20). Second, high temperatures have strong impacts (21⇓–23), affecting not only physical labor capacity but also mood, behavior, and mental health through heat exhaustion and effects on cognitive and psychological performance (20, 24, 25). The third, and perhaps most striking, indication for causality behind the temperature optimum we find is that it coincides with the optimum for economic productivity found in a study of climate-related dynamics in 166 countries (12). To eliminate confounding effects of historical, cultural, and political differences, that study focused on the relation within countries between year-to-year differences in economic productivity and temperature anomalies. The ∼13 °C optimum in MAT they find holds globally across agricultural and nonagricultural activity in rich and poor countries. Thus, based on an entirely different set of data, that economic study independently points to the same temperature optimum we infer.
Altogether, it seems plausible that the historically stable association between human distribution and temperature reflects a causal link rather than a legacy, contingent on ancient patterns reflecting agrarian needs or still-more-ancient hunter-gatherer preferences. This supports the view that the historically stable and tight relationship of human distribution to MAT represents a human temperature niche reflecting fundamental constraints on human populations.
…Read more: https://www.pnas.org/content/117/21/11350
I mean I guess its possible all this mild weather is bad for my health. Perhaps all the comfortable year round temperatures and our harsh diet of BBQ meat, fresh salad, beer, beach parties and outdoor living all year round will eventually finish us. But in my opinion the authors need to present stronger evidence than a demographic map, and a failure to address exceptions to their environmental niche hypothesis.
Update (EW): Added the full study discussion on “Causality”.
Why bully gee! We in Texas must be fixing to die, and all those people moving in from colder climates must be suicidal.
The huge majority of people i know spends tons of money to spent their holidays in warmer regions (and the only reason they spent their holidays in colder regions is skiing)
and those regions are usually the most frequented by tourism,
be it in Asia,Europe,America.
Even the only communist country that didn’t look like it got its life sucked out by a grey agony is Cuba (and that’s probably the reason why they got along without any significant democide or mass starvation which are integral part of communism)
Either people are generally suicidal or climate science fiction is full of assholes.
We will get the answer in a few month when the artificial Biden created food shortage will be blamed on AGW instean of Joe Brandon.
In regard to your “either/or” statement, I vote for “full of assholes”. Thank you.
Yup … that must explain why all the northern tier states in the USA are losing their population to the southern tier states … they’re all trying to escape those “ideal temperatures” up north. Here in Florida alone we’ve gained nearly 3 million more residents than we had in the 2010 census. Everybody knows it hot in Florida.
Oh, and where did the human species arise? Yup, in hot-as-hell east Africa.
And where on the planet did civilization and agriculture first arise? Yup again, in the hot-as-hell “Fertile Crescent” of the deserts of present day Iraq, followed by the cultures of the Egyptians, Hittites, etc. of – you guessed it, the hot-as-hell Sahara desert and Sinai desert.
Clearly hot climates are fatal to humanity.
They are still trying to push the LIA as some sort of golden age.
Ah, the Little Ice Age, where women wore NINE CONFOUNDED PETTICOATS, plus a forepart (underskirt) and an overskirt, plus the shift under it all – and this was ONLY so that they could stay warm once they moved away from the fireplace. I made one of those get-ups for a Ren Faire event and was glad I did, because the temperature plummeted on that particular day from 72F to about 45F, with a cold blast that also brought us drifts of rain. I was, at least, warm under all that puffery.
And those “pumpkin pants” that men wore? Same thing: filled with an insulating material such as oats or wheat (yes, grain does do that) to keep warm, in addition to woolen hosen and leather boots that went up over the knees. And that also includes the undershirt, the jerkin, the long sleeves on the bodicer (borrowed from women’s clothing) and a long cape that was lined to keep the wearer WARM.
Yes, it was quite a “golden age”, as long as the fires – which are full of “golden” flames – kept burning.
I think I read that a typical New England farm house, back in those good old days, would have to burn 20-30 cords of wood each winter. That’s a lot of work- plus, the forests of New England were wasted.
I read a book a couple years ago, can’t recall the title just now, about the initial European colonization of North America in the late 16th/early 17th century. The author’s main thesis was that Europeans, particularly from the British Isles, Spain, and France, all enjoyed relatively mild winters in their homelands due the effects of the Gulf Stream. They generally assumed that what later became the northeastern and mid-Atlantic United States, and the maritime provinces of Canada, being on the same latitudes as their homes in western Europe, would have a similar climate.
Thus when the came to colonize North America they suffered a rude awakening because of the very cold continental climate there, which was of course exacerbated by the Little Ice Age. Consequently most of the European colonists starved and froze, with failed and nearly failed colonies even in relatively southern and mild weather areas of Virginia (the nearly failed Jamestown colony with its infamous “starving time”, and North Carolina (the failed Roanoke colony). We don’t think of the mid-Atlantic as being a frigid climate -but it was in 1600 +/-.
“Consequently most of the European colonists starved and froze…”
Well, it toughened the herd- made those early Americans very tough indeed.
Well all significant ancient civilizations (sumer,babylon,egypt,india)originate in hot regions.
Even the isolated newer old civilizations on the american content (Aztecs,mayas etc)are located in the same climatic regions
so this whole claim is total bs from an idiot with a degree who discovered the way to kiss the right butts but not the way to use his brain.
Just saw something on TV about how Austin is booming- mostly northerners.
It is. I live just west of Austin.
Incredible all the CRAP they publish in order to virtue signal, and sound sciency. They see the world thru very odd filters. Very telling what the Left obsess over.
The greatest task for the “climate change” true believer is to convince the populace that near ideal conditions and improving weather events is somehow a negative and potentially deadly.
I bet many in the left don’t really believe it- I think they’re just getting in line for the trillions to be spent to “save the planet”.
Increased temperature causes the increase in Margarita consumption..
Could be a cause of premature death.
But cold can cause increased consumption of Schnapps and Sake. Humm.
Actually look at the Roman warm period and the Mideval
Warm periods. Not bad times to be alive.
If you do some research into the basis of songs like “Margaritaville” and “Tequila Makes Her Clothes Fall Off” you will find that increased consumption seems to correlate more to an increase in sexual activity than death!
My personal research, which I pursued all the way to Mexico, seems to corroborate this finding!
Thank you for your selfless research.
If only other researchers showed the same amount of commitment then the world would be a better place.
Oh, they do
Just not when it comes to real science
Why isn’t the mainstream media all over this?
Increases in temperature can also create a severe need for large pitchers of iced tea with lemon slices and cookies on the side, or c-c-c-cold soda with freshly popped popcorn. I can personally confirm that myself.
Also, increases in temperature tend to bring out the outdoor cooking crowd, whose pursuit of bounty knows no boundaries, including the consumption of barbecue ribs and potato salad.
I’ll worry about what the warm-mongers say just as soon as there is any human who lives in the global average temperature—which requires some human other than any human who has ever lived so far. Meanwhile, if your areas actual weather becomes unlivable follow the late Sam Kinison’s advice, “Get a U-Haul! Move somewhere else!”
While move somewhere else is a pleasant idea, it is beyond the financial means of most, even in the USA. Of course, if it were a matter of life vs. death, then giving up every material thing and arriving after a long struggle would still hold appeal.
What?????? Move away from the icy blasts of cold, bitter air off Lake Michigan? Move away from digging a parked car out of a snowbank and then finding out that is NOT where you parked after all? Move away from 4’7″ of snow piled up against my door, heavier than cement and twice as nasty, and having to wait for my neighbor to dig me out?
Are you completely nuts, sir?
I’ve been making plans to leave Canada since Justin got elected. If the South is depopulated I guess land will be cheap and I’ll have a big spot o put my lounge chair.
Right on- however, I have to admit, I love snowshowing in very deep snow- except in those rare times I happen to fall forward and bury my face in it- then with awkward movement of arms and legs, try to get up- with the snowshoes pointing straight down- not easy. It really is a lot of fun, though- and great exercise.
Since the global average temperature falls between 52F and 59F, doesn’t that mean that the entire globe is the preferred average temperature for humans? Funny things these “averages.”
I’m pretty sure the actual daily highs and lows are what humans use to determine livability.
George Carlin kinds hit the nail on the head. If 55F is the average, half are below that and half is above. Most people don’t have a clue about what a mean is or what it describes. They don’t realize that is a made up temperature that describes nowhere on earth.
For the same reason, the concept of an average global temperature is complete bunk.
People aren’t killed by averages, but by the extremes on the tails of the temperature distributions. Therefore, the variance can be more important than the mean.
Beware of averages. The average person has one breast and one testicle. – – – – – – – Dixie Lee Ray
the average person has two breasts.
(maybe dixie actually meant to say ‘boob’)
Or a ‘Global Climate’ for that matter, otherwise we could just toss the Köppen climate classification system altogether.
The concept of a global climate always makes me laugh.
Washington state has an average temp of 59F that would seem to make just about everything South of it uninhabitable. I’ve always thought that it was this averageness that made so many of the people from there so crazy.
That’s why no one goes to Las Vegas in February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September and October.
Yogi Berra-“Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded”.
Also, “If people don’t want to come to the ballpark, you can’t stop ’em”.
I gotta get a book of Yogi’s sayings- the guy was a genius.
“I didn’t say half the things I said.” -Yogi Berra
My dad spent time in the N. African desert during WW2. He was stunned by how cold it got at night, close to freezing. They’re probably not far off that average. Blatantly dishonest propaganda from people who purport to be scientists. Makes you wonder what the average honesty of human beings is that’s bearable.
I am shocked, shocked I tell you, that humans living in the tropics haven’t already died out!
But I am happy to learn that those who fly to Hawaii or other balmy destinations are doing so as a kind of self-mortification!
The authors need to be put on the list of those waiting for space in Antarctica to open up; hopefully Club Med: Ross Ice Shelf will be completed soon!
Not only are those unfortunate denizens of the Tropics surviving, it’s shocking to discover that it was ‘the cradle of man’. Even more shocking is the large number of temperate zone inhabitants who choose to holiday in the Tropics … for pleasure.
A bit like self-flagellation. Its done to purify the soul.
Hmmm … I see. Valid reason.
Rory: “Even more shocking is the large number of temperate zone inhabitants who choose to holiday in the Tropics … for pleasure.”
Oh my! No end to the supply of nutters, eh?
(Said as H.R. packs to Snowbird in Florida for the Winter.😜 )
You’ve been warned … ‘science’. You’re taking a big risk.
Strange that I seem to remember from back in the days of old, when the truth was told, that the ideal temperature for humans was 28 degrees C.
I suggest that the ideal temperature for humans is where the least energy is required to maintain core temperature … (approx. 28 C)
Perhaps a bit cooler to allow for heavy exertion. Not everyone can sit around drinking lemonade in the shade. 28 C was about the temperature of my pool in Phoenix in Summer, and about the air temperature at sunrise.
You’re right, of course, but whenever it’s more comfortable to be wearing clothing for other than modesty it’s a hint temperatures are below optimum.
Yes, 28C is just about perfect, thank you. It does depend on humidity, though. In low humidity we can tolerate a lot of variation. Even at 40C life is quite tolerable without cooling, just a hat and plenty of water.
And sunscreen, don’t forget the sunscreen!!!!
You are probably better off if you do forget it permanently.
Low humidity and of course wind velocity at any time of year.
I can work comfortably all day long on a sunny 10%RH winter day in Idaho at -5C in a long sleeve cotton shirt as long as there is little if any wind.
Working all day long outside on a 37C summer day at 15%RH with a mild breeze is just fine as long as I remember to wear a ball cap to shade my brow.
I remember from somewhere 84 degrees F being the minimum average daily temperature for unclothed humans, i.e., early modern humans living near the Equator. Seems like it is still a good temperature for unclothed humans.
Come on dude,you are so 70ies – the 28 degrees were the truth during the ice age scare when super expert Schneider blamed the cooling on Aerosols and 50 experts who met at Brown University in dec 1972 wrote a letter to Nixon,urging him to save us from the ice age by melting the arctic ice by covering it with soot – which is an aerosol.
The mean average annual temperature of New York is 11.9C (53.4F).
The mean average annual temperature of Miami is 25C (77F).
How come those that can shift to Florida?
New York taxes?
Outside of New York City and Long Island the rest of the state has annual averages less than 52. Give me some of that warming!
You know we are winning when obvious drivel like this makes PNAS during COP26. Very ridicule worthy.
We know by now that politicians can’t count. And we can’t count either……on them.
Why didn’t these guys not have had the idea to have a look at a globe, compare the landmass with a climate atlas and be astonished where people in general live.
Let me tell you:
Not in the Atlantic, not in the Pacific.
But there, were most of land is allocated.
And where do they find the regions with average temperatures they told us ?
May I guess ? 😀 😀 😀 Despite the temperature range they talk of.
Average temps / country
China has f.e. an average temp of 6.95°C
What the hell do they tell us where people live ?
None of the countries with most population is part of the mentioned temperature range.
I seem to recall Nigeria has one of the fastest growth in population. Who wants to go there and try to tell them the futility of reproducing?
I’m happy to go there to help with reproducing !! 😎
Selfless guys like you help humanity survive.
But i rather move to the east.
Too many big mamas in Nigeria,the skinny chicks live on the east coast.
Right, it is all about where the most real estate is located. Humans prefer warmth but needs must have room for agriculture and industry. Humans can adapt to every climate on the planet from the Arctic to the Equator but there is a reason why we migrate to warm places when we go on holiday.
If it ever gets that cold here, this tropical monkey becomes a Climate Refugee to warmer places toot sweet!
I’m not a climatologist, but what happens if you factor ‘availability of water’ into analyzing where people live? Does temperature retain any significance for the majority if you do?
While I’ve been alive, world population has gone from 2.5 billion to 7.9 billion. It seems to me that the best metric to graph that against is….hydrocarbon consumption. What is the implication?
And why is it so hard to accept that as life on this planet seems suicidal in sequestering CO2 as oil and coal making it unavailable for more life, that humans may have evolved to be the species that returns this trapped carbon to the carbon cycle making it available for more life?
After all, the 20 ton dinosaurs lived when atmospheric CO2 was many times what it is today; ammonites grew to 8 feet, not 8 inches. If scientists at Exeter university had a vision beyond ‘man is bad’ they might grasp the implications.
No chance,they are deeply into the cult.
PNAS used to be a respectable scientific publication. No more…
Unfortunately, that can be said about a lot of formerly respectable scientific publications! Probably most notably Scientific American.
And “Nature”, with all others that its economic potential has eswallowed.
All humans wear clothing the world around to prevent dying from exposure. Walk around naked at 52 deg F and see how long you survive.
These “scientists” are crackpots and nothing else.
Some of us don’t. Admittedly I wear clothes if I have to go out, but that’s just for the sake of decency.
It is my understanding that the Aborigines slept naked in temps below freezing. Likewise, I believe it was Magellan who observed that the natives occupying Tierra del Fuego wore little in the way of clothing and slept without benefit of jackets or blankets. Humans can adapt. After a warm Summer, I usually throw on a light coat the first day in the Fall when the temps get in the 50s, but after getting used to it, I have gone outside in a light T-shirt when the temp was at freezing.
I was once comfortable with only an unzipped windbreaker while waiting for the school bus when the rest of the kids were bundled in heavy coats, hats, gloves, scarves, etc. and complaining about freezing to death.
I unfortunately underwent a detrimental change later in life and requir a thyroid supplement but my mother remained immune to cold temperatures.
I had a friend who would wear only a t-shirt in even the coldest weather. If he put a coat on, it was *cold*.
Clothing is protective in many climates but not all humans have so far been corrupted to the point that they wear clothing. Since they survive and maintain a structured life, they must not be uncomfortable.
Another advantage of living in tropical North Queensland is the Covid virii don’t seem to like it, even in the depths of “winter”, when it can often drop to a bone-chilling +10°C, or even a horrific +6°C.
Don’t remind me of those scary single digit temperatures! Normally I manage to flee but for the past couple of years we (and North Korea) have not been allowed out of the country. Cape York was ok. Next winter I’m outta here, soon for good.
The one thing to learn in weather, biodiversity, horticulture, paleontology, geology, volcanology, solar, plate tectonics, climatology, astrology is most processes are not fundamentally constant.
Lets check the climate constants:
We are a tiny influence on the universe around us.
What A Crock Of Crap !
All this pontification about the ideal temperature range for humans! What do humans actually prefer? Someone should make a global survey of air conditioning settings around the world. This will show the range of temperatures actually preferred by humans.
And a great deal depends on what said humans are adapted to. Winter in the north usually comes with a few mild thaw days, everyone will don shorts and sandals and strut around in !3C because compared to last week’s -013C it feels tropical. And the opposite also applies, 10C feels bone-chilling if you are accustomed to 25C+.
Humans tend to adapt quickly, too. I was born in Arizona, but lived in New Hampshire for a few years. Visiting my family for the Christmas holidays, I ran around in just shorts. (Shirt and sandals if I went into public.)
Now I feel chilly again when the thermometer dips below 70…
Just considering some of the cradles of civilisation:
Egypt, Cairo MAT ~22°C
Mesopotamia, Baghdad MAT ~25°C
Indus valley, Lahore MAT ~24°C
Aztec, Mexico City MAT ~16°C
Ancient Peru, Chiclayo MAT ~21°C
…back to the drawing board professor.
Of course that “study” is nonsense, but…
Indeed there is a 3°C range where people are most comfortable. Outside that range there are more premature deaths, about 10 times more to the cold side than to the warm side…
The funny thing is that such a 3°C range is different for any town or country where you live…
Keatinge e.a. have examined that already in 2000, be it only for summer temperatures:
“Results: Mortality was lowest at 14.3-17.3°C in north Finland but at 22.7-25.7°C in Athens. Overall the 3°C minimum mortality temperature bands were significantly higher in regions with higher than lower mean summer temperatures”
“Conclusions: Populations in Europe have adjusted successfully to mean summer temperatures ranging from 13.5°C to 24.1°C, and can be expected to adjust to global warming predicted for the next half century with little sustained increase in heat related mortality.”
I only wonder how people adapt to a range where they live: is it by genetics, or simply because people adapt in a few days or weeks to another climate? I suppose more the latter: lots of people here get a new home in the far south of Spain when pensioning and get a long pleasant rest of their life by moving from rainy Belgium at average 11°C to 20°C in south Spain…
It’s definitely acclimatisation. I now find a 30C breeze relatively cool in summer. I’ve always preferred being warm, but I can get used to cold weather. Never liked it, though.
It’s definitely adaptation. Here in Aberdeen, we have pretty much the coolest summer temperatures in Europe yet people still complain about the heat when it gets “warm”. And by warm I mean a daytime max over 22°C.
A naked human dies of exposure in temperatures less than 80-85 F.
We heat/ cool our houses to 70-75 F. Trees turn their leaves to maintain a temperature of 70-75 F.
Humans can only survive temperatures of 52-59 F because of the domestication of fire.
Human habitation depends much more on the availability of water, not temperature.
Most cities of the world are located on water for transportation and drinking.
This limits human population, due to lack of fresh water in the horse and polar latitudes.
Temperature is simply an effect, not a cause of human civilization.
Regardless of temperature, if the water supply to a town dies the town dies.
The Fertile Crescent and Egypt were the centre of the developed world for millennia. Baghdad has an average high in August of 110 F, and 60 in January. Average daily temperatures from 50 to 95 F. Cairo is not as hot, with daily means from 57 to 83 F. They are the two largest Arab cities by population, 8-10 million.
Thriving areas of the ancient world because of warm to hot and dry climates with irrigation leading to an abundance of food, usually.
Greece and Rome prospered because of trade. Rome’s daily mean varies from 45 to 76, 59.5 F annually and most likely warmer during the RWP.
It seems that only recently have the cooler regions of Europe and North America, and more recently, China and Japan, become manufacturing power houses. Its probably not a coincidence that North England has average highs of 45 F in winter to 70 F in Summer and was the centre of the Industrial Revolution. Much easier to go to work in a factory when its cold outside.
The tropics don’t seem to have much in terms of industry, still. A bit harder to get motivated to go to work?
Too right, mate.
“You goin’ to work, Jim?”
“Nah, mate. Couldn’t be rsed. Crack another tube and join us in the pool!”
Eric ==> I looked at this study pretty thoroughly when it first came out. The authors and others misrepresent the findings….there are two nodes of, optimal human habitation, according to their results with a band right across that takes inmost of humanity:
Kip the entire premise is absurd. Tropical Indonesian subsistence farms are insanely productive, ditto farms in other tropical places.
I planted 5 cherry tomatoes under my front porch in our Winter, where they spend most of their time in the shadow of the porch, they’ve been producing a good handful of tomatoes every day for the last month. My lone lime and mandarine trees save us from buying Citrus 3 months per year, with 50-80 limes on the lime tree, and around 40 Mandarins – on neglected trees which are only 4 years old.
I bet if you delved into those bumps you would discover it was a geographic, historical accident. The only environment humans find challenging is lack of water or too cold.
Eric ==> The tallerhe other bump is bump is Northern Hemisphere, Europe, North America, Russia, etc. Southeast Asia, Africa, Tropical South America (Brazil etc). A horizontal box where the two blue boxes overlap is the Sweet Spot.
Strange that it’s bimodal for crops. I suspect it’s that arid regions have very cold minima so that the daily mean is not as high as places with more moderate weather and rain. Just shows that the methodology is flawed.
To bed ==> The funny low spot in the middle is an artifact of AVERAGING.
Well, that would seem to explain the Canadians:
Humans are tall and skinny (at least naturally), have no fur and sweat all over. Hardly cold weather animals. Given access to water, humans can tolerate considerable heat. It’s cold that kills us.
Ever since fire was invented. Without fire or modern alternatives, not so much.
Say 20-25C (70-75F). Colder at night if you have a good blanket.
You want to see real climate migration, turn off all the fossil fuels.
Their theory is just more BS and fra-d.
Our poorest continent Africa’s (53 countries) population 1970 was just 363 million and life expectancy 46, but today pop is 1370 million and life exp is 63.
The global pop in 1970 was 3.7 billion and life exp 56.5, YET today pop is 7.8 billion and global life exp is 73.
And much higher in wealthy OECD countries. When will these donkeys WAKE UP?
What a crock of crap.
In the S.E. of England, my central heating functions in the range of 19ºC – 20ºC. If it’s below around 15ºC outside I’ll put a sweater (appropriate term) on to keep me warm.
Were my family and I able to comfortably survive in a temperature of 11ºC – 15ºC I would set my central heating to that temperature. It would be a lot cheaper for me.
What planet do these people live on?
The Ice Planet Hoth….
currentresults.com shows the average CONUS temperature (based on 1970-2000) at 52.7F, right in the 52-59 range. But the only states averaging between 52.0 and 59.0 in that period were Delaware, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Tenessee, and Virginia. California barely missed the cut (59.4), but it’s apparent that the CONUS population is not clinging to the ten states in the middle.
Nor do the population in those 10 states experience 52-59. At 55.6F Kentucky would seem to be right in the middle of the supposed butter range (and as the #15 state, it’s clear that more states are too cold than too warm for this metric). Clicking on Kentucky at the same sites shows every listed city in Kentucky has an average annual high above 59 and an average annual low below 52. Of what significance is the average when the average day is both too hot and too cold for the supposed optimal range. More to the point, like pretty much everywhere on earth with an “average” temperature in the 50s, it’s a temperate region with *seasons*. Going to another site I see that in the most populous city in Kentucky (Louisville) the average high in July is 89F and the average low in January is 27F. (Individual days will get hotter and colder than this, of course).
So despite being smack in the middle of a “narrow average temperature band”, the monthly averages for the biggest city in the state vary by over 60F between the highest average high and the lowest average low. The modest impacts of the modern warming period are hardly noticeable set against the usual variability of days and seasons, hardly suggestive of a “causal niche” confining humans to the 50s that most Kentuckians aren’t actually in when outdoors, and are practically never in when indoors.
Did they not get the memo? Don’t they know that we have to supplant the words “mean” and “average” with normal. Otherwise it doesn’t sound scary. And they call themselves scientists.
Note the constraining temperatures (52-57°F) are the loverly dank UK ones of Exeter England where this codswallop was spawned. Lugubrious hubris from the clime syndicate. Hell more than 6 billion people are already out side this range! And Britons head for beaches in Turkey and Spaon to dry out and warm up.
If I have my feet in the oven and my head in the fridge, on AVERAGE I’m feeling pretty comfortable.
Lies, damn lies and statistics
The logic is simple and irrefutable:
Beer keeps better when the outside temperatures remain between 52-59F. Beer is essential to mankind…therefore any average temperature outside this range is simply unacceptable.
Actually, beer can keep just fine down to about 34F, but then it’s too damn cold outside to enjoy it.
I hope this clears up an otherwise seemingly-arbitrary temperature range.
Aussies were early adopters of ice boxes and evaporative coolers ;-).
The ignorance of the history of the species Homo sapiens on Earth that is displayed by Chi Xu, et. al, and in turn parroted by authors Steven Bernard, Dan Clark and Sam Joiner in their http://www.ft.com article, is PHENOMENAL!
So far, the earliest finds of modern Homo sapiens skeletons come from Africa. They date to nearly 200,000 years ago on that continent. They appear in Southwest Asia around 100,000 years ago and elsewhere in the Old World by 60,000-40,000 years ago.
In comparison, the last glacial interval on Earth started about 110,000 years ago (during the Pleistocene) and ended about 15,000 years ago.
So Homo sapiens (ie., humans) have in fact survived/adapted to both glacial and interglacial conditions over the last 200,000 years, even without any use of technology (e.g., environmental control such as HVAC).
And the above cited authors are so bold/ignorant as to assert the species would find it very difficult to survive outside of zones where average annual temperature ranges from 52F – 59F (11C-15C) as seen over the last “several thousand years“.
No further comment is necessary.
You have got to be kidding. That’s 11 to 15 DegC. In Queensland, we only get that in the depths of winter. I would die living in such a cold climate.
With recent global cooling, I installed a wood heater. We use it up to 20 DegC.
We had a nice warm spell recently with temps around 35 DegC (95 F), go a lot of yard work done around the house, went on 20 km bike rides with wife, long walks.
Hot for me is 42DegC (108 F)
Yep, completely bananas – an important global crop which withers and dies in temperate climates.
I would say these people have invested in A/C sales but man even the best A/Cs cannot bring the temp down to this level in Florida
Going to go out on a semi snark limb here, but this is basically “White Supremacy”.
The West and The East? Not Hot
Therefore under the logic of these people it was actually an act of human kindness to move people from Hot locations to Not Hot locations.
At best there is a degree of arrogance in play with this report. At worse it is an attempt to diminish the cultural and social achievements of all those people who do not live in the ‘correct’ 52-59 regions.
Remember, there are some places in the world that remove ‘black’ characters from movie posters.
And then the average annual temperature in Florida is about 75F and that of Maine is 42F, both quite successful States, nicely bracketing Steven Bernard’s ideal range. Where do such simpletons get such nonsensical ideas? It clearly is not from critical thought.
Must be that Angkor Wat, Borobudur, Baghdad, Cairo, Singapore and Miami, to mention a few, were built by Aliens. At least according to the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.
Original Australians have tight connection with the land that supports them and not much else. They had no need for anything but primitive shelter, primitive weapons and fire to survive successfully for thousands of years.
It is the cold climates that have spawned invention to survive against the weather odds.
The story exceeds silliness by a good margin; fodder for a round file.
Orbs, big brass ones, if the temp in our boat dips below 24C I receive complaints from SWMBO that it’s freezing in here. Obviously no women were consulted.
” We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, “
business-as-usual – – – Uff da! RCP 8.5 = schist
Anyone ask Inuits to give evidence? How about Berbers? How about Amazonian tribesfolk?
This total and utter claptrap is just made-up propaganda and the prostitutes calling it their own work should face consequences severe enough to make their successors attend more to basic truth and evidence…..
Hello from Finland. Our annual avg temp is about 4°C (39F).
Good to know … you’re now off my visit list.😎
You could always move!
Prior to the industrial revolution, many people living in the colder regions died young, barely surviving the harsh winters, whilst living in abject poverty.
I have no evidence for this, I think it’s likely the harsh winters and lack of sustenance were the drivers for innovation that led to the industrial revolution.
Post-industrial revolution, people live longer, eat better and have the freedom to pontificate about the ideal temperature being so low we need clothing and heating to survive
We’re a naked ape, we wouldn’t last a single winter if we didn’t have the ability to solve problems
It sounds to me, like a rehash of Sherlock Holmes observation that “once you have eliminated the impossible, what remains, no matter how unlikely, must be the truth.” Unfortunately, the obvious flaw in Sherlock’s reasoning is that you can never eliminate every possible causation and therefore, the impossible. All these apparatchiks have done, is picked on a few straw men in order to say they have eliminated the impossible, and what they have left – cooler weather – is the only possible answer.
How this can pass for science, as opposed, say, to an op ed in New Scientists, beggars belief.
I read something similar donkeys’ years ago. The authors were in Boston.
There seems to be just a tad of parochialism involved in both cases.
Due to the energy per cubic meter at ground/sea level being regulated by gravity the temperature means absolutely nothing. Temperature is non-linear to energy.
Another way of looking at this nonsense is to ask why are humans different to other animals requiring a niche environment? If it were the case then how can the elephants that are in the zoo near me (52 degrees north) manage to survive? Likewise the different great apes and monkeys?
Presumably, these folks managed to miss the ~1.3 Billion folk who live in India with an annual average temperature of >25C. No doubt that Indian folk have had their brains addled by the heat.
They might have checked out the correlation between human habitation and rainfall. It is noticeable that humans don’t tend to inhabit desert environments, hot or cold. I wonder why that is?
I note that this is a publication in PNAS, which as far as I know does not require peer review. This paper would have failed the chuckle test.
Along which latitudes do the most humans live? I suspect it is from the equator to the 49th parallel north and south.
¨…the coldest phase of the Little Ice Age in Europe (1560 to 1660 AD) has been causally linked to a peak of migration (1580 to 1650 AD) and a European population collapse to a minimum in 1650 AD…¨
Nuts. That was the 100 years War, called the 30 years War in polite company.
Same as today, migration is caused by war, economic collapse. To wash befouled hands with CO2 is the establishment tactic at FLOP26.
Someone please inform me WHERE do those numbskulls get that twaddle?
If we’re so very, very vulnerable to walloping highs and lows in temperature, how come people go skiing, snowshoeing, and sledding in the winter, and how come people go running off to beaches where they can wear skimpy “clothing” in the heat of a sunny day?
Please explain that to me, because I have managed to survive all the hellishly cold winters that the Midwest has ever had to offer since I was 5 years old and we moved from the sandy plains of Brownwood, TX to central Illinois. I can confirm that being stationed at NAVSTA Great Lakes in the winter is ABSOLUTELY NO FUN. It was misery in 1972 and you can ask anyone – including any recruits from sunny climes – just how much fun it is NOT!! Even so, we all managed to survive, and even the oreboat people who move stuff from the Mesabi taconite digs (shut down now because of Covid stuff) to other places functioned managed to somehow survive the beastly cold of the Great Lakes, never mind our surviving the beastly heat and humidity of Chicago-area summers.
So this is TOTALLY BOGUS, MAN!!!!
Also, I would like to know what planet outside our solar system those “experts” reside on? Only asking because they sure as all get-out don’t come from THIS planet.
“Why have humans remained concentrated so consistently in the same small part of the potential climate space?”
Because that is where the water is (mostly near the sea). People need water to drink, grow crops and run industries. Rivers and seas are also a significant factor in World trade. People live better if they trade with each other.
Fortunately, global warming is meant to make the Earth wetter so an increase in temperature will not kill us all.
Anyway, the idea that the average temperature is relevant is daft. A hot country doesn’t become more habitable just because it has a couple of months at -20 every year.
So, to summarise: Ever since humans learnt to control fire, they have been able to live in colder climates than are ideal for their comfort and survival. Advancements in construction and heating, along with exploitation of fossil fuels have led to human habitation in even colder climates.
At 52F I have to wear gloves, a winter jacket, hat, long pants. Hell I am cold at that temp.
Pretty much the stupidest scientific commentary I’ve ever seen. I thought “Global warming” was supposed to manifest itself primarily in the Northern latitudes. Have they even determined what the rise has been in the parts of the world that are warm already? I think the population of Nigeria alone is projected to hit a billion by 2100. Are they planning to move these people to the Arctic? Should we ask them if they want o go or just force them -for their own good?
These clowns just branded themselves as non-scientists and lousy activists, all in one shot.
If true, why have people stayed so long north of the Artic circle. Over a million people total still living there.
It also appears that the author is ignoring the human need to eat food and grow and harvest food.
Eric, this article was hilarious. I’ll trade you some fresh Oysters from Coos Bay for some of that BBQ Australian beef. OHHAHAHA. Keep it up my friend…
A colleague of Tim Lenton at Exeter is James Dyke who has recently published a book entitled Fire, Storm and Flood the Violence of Climate Change.
Says it all really
The latest Time Magazine is loaded with climate crap- the cover shows John “with a $700 haircut” Kerry- looking dapper in his expensive suit. Not the kind of guy to be trusted by working stiffs.
Has Time magazine ever apologized to the world for naming Greta Thunberg its “Person of the Year” in 2019?
The video of Greta’s rabble rousing outside the COP26 conference tells anyone all the need to know about the wisdom of that selection.
Mad Dogs and Englishmen by Noel Coward
In tropical climes there are certain times of day
When all the citizens retire
To tear their clothes off and perspire.
It’s one of those rules that the greatest fools obey,
Because the sun is much too sultry
And one must avoid its ultry-violet ray.
The native grieve when the white men leave their huts,
Because they’re obviously definitely nuts!
Mad dogs and Englishmen
Go out in the midday sun,
The Japanese don’t care to.
The Chinese wouldn’t dare to,
Hindus and Argentines sleep firmly from twelve to one.
But Englishmen detest a siesta.
In the Philippines
There are lovely screens
To protect you from the glare.
In the Malay States
There are hats like plates
Which the Britishers won’t wear.
At twelve noon
The natives swoon
And no further work is done.
But mad dogs and Englishmen
Go out in the midday sun.
It’s such a surprise for the Eastern eyes to see
That though the English are effete,
They’re quite impervious to heat,
When the white man rides every native hides in glee,
Because the simple creatures hope he
Will impale his solar topee on a tree.
It seems such a shame
When the English claim
That they give rise to such hilarity and mirth.
Mad dogs and Englishmen
Go out in the midday sun.
The toughest Burmese bandit
Can never understand it.
In Rangoon the heat of noon
Is just what the natives shun.
They put their Scotch or Rye down
And lie down.
In a jungle town
Where the sun beats down
To the rage of man and beast
The English garb
Of the English sahib
Merely gets a bit more creased.
At twelve o’clock
They foam at the mouth and run,
But mad dogs and Englishmen
Go out in the midday sun.
Mad dogs and Englishmen
Go out in the midday sun.
The smallest Malay rabbit
Deplores this foolish habit.
In Hong Kong
They strike a gong
And fire off a noonday gun
To reprimand each inmate
Who’s in late.
In the mangrove swamps
Where the python romps
There is peace from twelve till two.
Lie around and snooze;
For there’s nothing else to do.
To move at all
Is seldom, if ever done.
But mad dogs and Englishmen
Go out in the midday
Out in the midday
Out in the midday
Out in the midday
Out in the midday
Out in the midday
Out in the midday sun.
Taking at face value the commonly-cited 2 degree C increase in average global temperature expected to occur in the next century (next 50 years, next 9.5 years, whatever…the goalposts are endlessly moving), such an increase would be the equivalent of moving about 173 statute miles due south (in the northern hemisphere). So if you moved 173 miles south of wherever you are now (excluding people in places like Houston or New Orleans, who would drown in the Gulf of Mexico), would you starve to death as a result of no longer being able to grow food, or instantly burst into flames, or become a victim of “extreme weather?” Hardly.
The “climate change” that should be feared is global COOLING. I’ll see your dinosaur paradise and raise you half a continent buried under a mile of ice. We can easily adapt to warming equivalent to taking a short drive south today, but significant cooling would shorten growing seasons, reduce food availability, and possibly cause the very social unrest that “warmists” constantly fantasize will result “any time now” from a negligible increase in temperature.
Death from overeating takes longer than the opposite. Cf. today’s average life expectancy.
Average annual temperatures here in Aberdeen is a balmy 8.1°C, I look forward to the year 2100, when global warming will make my city inhabitable by humans, who will hopefully drive out the hairy troglodytes who currently reside here.