Geopolitics, Oil, And The Ultimate Inevitable Celebration Of The Oil Sands

Reposted from Public Energy Number One

Terry Etam

Decades ago, when the west cared about energy security, weird things happened around the world. Major new hydrocarbon discoveries in various undeveloped corners of the world led to instant new ‘friendships’ – hey look everyone, we just signed a new trade deal with Angola! And a generation of political pundits scrambled for their atlases. Political alliances were formed with virtually anyone that helped with petroleum supply (I bet there were even instances where hard-core pro-war ultra-conservative military-industrialists raised their eyebrows and said “Really? That guy? He’s nuts.” But they supported him anyway…).

The phenomenon is of course not unprecedented – big powers have always sought out what they needed to survive. Petroleum was just the most recent commodity, in desperate demand as the west’s lifestyle spiralled up and out. And it only spiralled up and out because of affordable hydrocarbons.

Now that the west has been brutally afflicted by comfort – perpetually full supermarkets, ultra-reliable energy, endless leisure options – some circles have lost interest in reliable, secure energy in the ignorant belief that it can simply be replaced by renewables. It can’t, and we will find that out after some as-yet-undetermined level of damage, but the interesting part here is the repercussions for current hydrocarbon supplies.

The petroleum-supply geopolitical machine that the west once relied on has been tossed on the scrap heap due to a belief that US shale supplies will provide a hundred years’ of supply, and by the notion that we won’t be relying on hydrocarbons for much longer anyway because of the ‘energy transition’. 

The latter in particular is changing the west’s petroleum outlook, to the extent that rabid activists are trying to hound Big Oil out of existence. They may succeed; recent court cases and shareholder activists are changing the course of large multinational oil companies. These slow-moving behemoths are being forced to adopt new green strategies, cut exploration budgets, and  exit oil production as fast as possible. They seem to have few friends in the house, anywhere, except of course the faceless and endless stream of consumers that rely on their products for survival. (It may soon be illegal to say that, so just getting in while I can.)

But from a global perspective, it is as though we are moving back in time 70 years, with different players. China, India, other parts of Asia, and Africa are on a development trajectory much like North America and western Europe were in the middle of the last century. They are now the ones looking to secure energy supplies (China being the most aggressive; places like Africa simply want to develop the reserves they have). There is one huge difference, of course – those regions in combination have a population ten times that of North America.

India and Africa have recently made it clear that they intend to develop and utilize hydrocarbon resources to the maximum extent possible, for as long as they see fit. China has said something else – pledging carbon neutrality or some such metric by 2060 – but for any rational person their promises should have the credibility of a manic pro wrestler. (Despite what China says about plans to slash emissions, the country is building new oil refineries, building tens of thousands of kilometres of hydrocarbon pipelines, and constructing new coal-fired power plants).

So, in the coming years, we can expect to see these regions – Asia and Africa, predominantly – with their combined 4 billion citizens scooping up all the properties the west is being forced to sell (for example, Shell will be hounded out of Nigerian oil production sometime pretty quickly). They will buddy up with the Middle East’s key cantankerous players, in the name of energy security. They will act to guarantee supply.

The west? We will be in trouble. We are going to need hydrocarbons for many decades as well, no matter what a hundred thousand academic sociologists and climatologists and soft-science PhD politicians say. We will be forced to look in unsavoury places for our hydrocarbon fix.

The ultimate irony out of this? Mark these words: In 30 years, Canada’s oil sands, recently decried as a ‘carbon bomb’ and killer of the world’s climate, will be the most valuable asset in North America. It is an unbelievably huge, landlocked resource that will be available for another hundred years, long after today’s hot shale plays are drilled up like Swiss cheese.

Energy security will one day be popular again, and we will be grateful for what we have in our own back yard.

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October 30, 2021 2:09 pm

Oh, US shale development should go well, as the Democrats are likely to lose both the House and Senate, upending the policies of whomever Biden is fronting for.
Canadians were unable to remove Trudeau in the recent election, but his group seems uninclined to suicidal behavior on energy, unlike some countries in Europe.

Steve Case
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 30, 2021 2:26 pm

Democrats are likely to lose both the House and Senate
_____________________________________________
And Trump was likely to win last year. Democrats are going to pull the same shit they did last November now that they know they can get away with it.

Here in Wisconsin they have been banging away at Senator Ron Johnson with political hit ads for the entire year so far. I’m rather sure they will be using other now “tried and true” methods come November 2022.

Reply to  Steve Case
October 30, 2021 2:33 pm

I doubt the absentee ballot game will work twice in a row. As the variations on bills Pelosi has tried to pass to allow for ballot harvesting and the graveyard vote have not, and probably will not pass, that scam is a bit stale.

DMA
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 30, 2021 3:12 pm

The ballot harvesting was rampant but a minor part of the fraud. Look a Doug Franks work. There was active manipulation of the on the internet before,during and after the election in every state. He has developed the unique equation for each state that was used and can predict all county voting demographics from the census and eligible voter rolls. We simply cannot use these machines again.

Reply to  DMA
October 30, 2021 3:25 pm

Given the truly remarkable “turnout increases” in some close states, it was variations on the graveyard vote.

DMA
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 30, 2021 3:48 pm

See https://rumble.com/vmxm52-the-registration-key-to-montana.html
He has done this for every county. They were all corrupted.

Izaak Walton
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 30, 2021 9:25 pm

That would also imply that Trump’s vote was fraudalent. He gained far more votes than the polls predicted and far more votes than most (if not all) presidents seaking relection.

paul courtney
Reply to  Izaak Walton
October 31, 2021 5:59 am

Mr. Walton: That would imply that the dems are better at fraud than Trump and R’s combined. Thank you for confirming this, but we knew it already.

MAL
Reply to  paul courtney
October 31, 2021 8:24 am

Sorry you wrong, Dimm cheat, Republicans think the can follow the rules and win. That the way it always been. Why do us conservative like to call the Republican elite stupid. it because they are. We would prefer no cheating like voter ID and only voting on election day anything else introduce fraud, and what we have today is ripe for massive fraud. We are one of the few “democratic elections systems” that don’t require voter ID. Every wonder why your party is against it.

Last edited 2 months ago by MAL
DMA
Reply to  Izaak Walton
October 31, 2021 6:33 am

IW
The point is it was fraudulent and grossly so. That election should be decertified and redone without machines that can be hacked.

Burl Henry
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 30, 2021 8:30 pm

Tom: Halla

Watch the Virginia election carefully–they are desperate and may try the same fraud again.

Reply to  Burl Henry
October 30, 2021 8:35 pm

They tried to do the magic drop box game again, and failed. I do not think the same game will work on an alerted target. I hope.

Robert Hanson
Reply to  Burl Henry
October 31, 2021 9:05 am

They have already been caught with McAuliffe staffers wearing false flag “right wing” costumes at Youngkin rallies.

ATheoK
Reply to  Robert Hanson
October 31, 2021 8:52 pm

The best part of that scam is that because six McAuliffe staffers were false flagging at the Youngkin rally, it cut the McAuliffe attendance in half.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Burl Henry
October 31, 2021 12:32 pm

The Republicans in Virginia say they have a good eye on the problem voting districts in Virginia. Apparently, only a few districts need watching, so maybe the Republicans can stay on top of things.

The Republican candidate is ahead by about eight points in the polls so even with the Democrats cheating, he might win.

Chraya
Reply to  Steve Case
October 30, 2021 5:07 pm

Is Ron Johnson going to run for re-election?

Steve Case
Reply to  Chraya
October 30, 2021 6:07 pm

The Democrats are spending oodles of money on TV ads, so it looks like they think he is. After a short search I find this tidbit:

 He’s the lone Senate Republican on the ballot in 2022 LINK

Mr.
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 30, 2021 2:32 pm

Tom, I think the Biden and Trudeau handlers fully realize that they won’t be able to control demand for oil, gas and coal from the general populace, so their next line of attack is to disenfranchise the consuming public, and so ultimately control the means of production & distribution through powers of environmental agencies.
By any means possible.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 30, 2021 3:10 pm

From your lips to God’s ear as they say, Tom…but

A month is a decade in politics so there’s still over a century of political time before the mid-terms.

Twelve plus months of the propaganda ministry spinning and shilling for Demorats and sliming Republicans. Twelve plus months to perfect their schemes of post-mortal, non-citizen, and virtual human franchise. It’s not even safe to bet on the Virginia election coming in a little over 48 hours.

Chraya
Reply to  Rich Davis
October 30, 2021 4:58 pm

The most important factor in 2022 is Trump taking a low key approach and staying out of the campaigns (especially not attacking Republicans he doesn’t like).

The party in the WH almost always loses seats in the midterm. If the elections are about Biden’s track record, the Republicans will do well. If Trump gets involved, the independents and suburban voters who abandoned Trump in 2020 but are unhappy with Biden will have to choose who they like less. And that makes it a toss up.

Democrats will want to use Trump as the boogeyman in 2022 because they have nothing else. They are doing exactly this in Virginia, an election that has nothing to do with Trump. Republicans need to avoid that trap but it all depends on Trump himself being willing to stay low key.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Chraya
October 30, 2021 6:28 pm

First of all, the Dems are going to use Trump to fire up their base even if he disappears completely. Whether he says anything or not, they will resurrect old clips and tweets if that’s all they have. Even if he says all kinds of self-deprecating conciliatory stuff, that will never be allowed to be the narrative. You might say that he could make clear that he doesn’t intend to run in 2024 and that would change things, but that would be wrong. Whoever is the front-runner will be portrayed as the new Trump who is allegedly under his thumb, etc., etc. And oh by the way, worse, so much worse, than Trump ever was.

I’m not so sure that you’re right about the impact that he would have on Independents at this point, given Brandon’s collapse. In any case, it’s a long long way to Tipperary. Next November is completely unpredictable.

PCman999
Reply to  Rich Davis
October 30, 2021 10:15 pm

Well then Trump, if the Democrats are going to use him as a propaganda tool, should just give up and join Team Biden, using every photo op to praise him, say things like “we’re in complete agreement”, “we’re pals” , “we think alike”.

Robert Hanson
Reply to  PCman999
October 31, 2021 9:08 am

🙂

MAL
Reply to  Rich Davis
October 31, 2021 8:30 am

Does it matter if Trump is around or not the Dimms have called every Republican a Nazi, dumb, Racist and another thing they can since I been alive after all Goldwater was going to get us in a war.

Mr.
Reply to  Chraya
October 30, 2021 7:22 pm

Agree.
I don’t get to vote in US elections, but I reckon it would be a good strategy for the Republicans to run a presidential candidate other than Trump, just to be able to cast the Dems as having nothing current or future to offer – living in the past.

Michael S. Kelly
Reply to  Mr.
October 31, 2021 6:48 am

Anybody on Earth (even those no longer on Earth) can vote in US elections. Don’t sell yourself short.

Last edited 2 months ago by Michael S. Kelly
Tom Abbott
Reply to  Mr.
October 31, 2021 12:42 pm

The Republicans are gong to say who runs and who doesn’t run for president. Trump is currently favored by 78 percent of Republicans. Noone else even comes close.

I’ll vote for Trump if he runs. I like his personality, and I definitely like his policies. I think it’s just what is needed to fight back against the Democrats.

A lot of things can happen between now and the elections of 2022 and 2024. It will be interesting to watch.

BallBounces
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 30, 2021 6:01 pm

I will not stand for this bad-mouthing of the Canadian Prime Minister; he’s every bit as committed to suicidal energy behavior as any woke western leader — more so!!!

Reply to  BallBounces
October 30, 2021 6:21 pm

FidelJr has been in office long enough to show his tendencies as a Prime Minister, and judging Canadian politics from Texas, he has had enough time to show any serious Jimmy Carter tendencies to always do the wrong thing.

David Blenkinsop
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 30, 2021 8:33 pm

Considering that Trudeau has now shuffled his woke climate change minister to now become the minister of natural resources, it remains to be seen how much damage Canada’s government is about to do to the oil industry.

Canada traditionally depends on the oil sector. Given all the taxes and employment that this generates, it might be easy to assume that Trudeau, et al, wouldn’t wreck the oil industry “golden goose”. However, our federal level ‘schemers’ here in Canada aren’t behaving that much differently than the current crop of U.S. Democratic party ‘wreckers’! As in the U.S., jobs in the ‘flyover’ regions appear to account for far less than any comparable number of Eastern region jobs.

With all the so often stated virtue signalling on the part of our great leaders, who is to say that the resulting bad judgement won’t continue to outweigh even the need for economic growth for our entire countries as such?

Anyway, not to be too pessimistic, maybe there are ways for the North American West to fight back, hope against hope, I suppose..

Dennis
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 30, 2021 6:03 pm

Substantial shale oil deposits in Australia are now protected inside UN registered, previously state owned forests and land, now National Parks.

One of the largest natural gas and oil reserves at Cooba Pedy South Australia is quarantined.

Mr.
Reply to  Dennis
October 30, 2021 7:36 pm

Frac it.
Just pretend you’re after opals.

MAL
Reply to  Dennis
October 31, 2021 8:32 am

Most of our low sulfur coal was locked up by Clinton.

Larry
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 31, 2021 8:47 pm

Trudeau is very much inclined to energy suicide. He hates Alberta and has appointed a green peace activist as the new energy and climate change minister

Nick Schroeder
October 30, 2021 2:30 pm

As I said elsewhere, I’m in Seattle.
Hour and a half on I-25 and 70 w hundreds of others.
Three hours in 737.
There and back again.
And no local family outing is under an hour round trip.
And the level of traffic just astounding.
Massive disruption in our fossil fueled life would turn our routines up side down.
Seattle is one center of this progressive green hysteria.
But the lying, fact free, fake news MSM has everyone’s head solidly up their butts!

John Hultquist
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
October 30, 2021 9:14 pm

I-5 and I-90 are known in Seattle.
I-25 and I-70 not so much.

Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  John Hultquist
November 1, 2021 2:51 am

Right, I-25 and I-70 run through Denver. He is right about one thing, however, traffic around Seattle is brutal and the 5 is often a parking lot.

Walter Pate
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
October 31, 2021 12:33 am

I’m near Tacoma & there is no I-25 or I-70 within 500+ miles of here. Not sure you looked at a map recently but you seem to be in Colorado…

Last edited 2 months ago by Walter Pate
markl
October 30, 2021 2:35 pm

With known reserves and yet-to-be-discovered and tapped (they seem to come out of the woodwork) I think we have way more than 30 years. The death of the oil industry due to CC ideology is overrated. The world won’t acquiesce to doing without energy and falling back a century in lifestyle.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  markl
October 30, 2021 3:17 pm

Markl, you need to read my stuff. There are three ways to estimate remaining undiscovered conventional oil fields. The best (but most laborious) is creaming curves by basin. That method says over 75% of all the conventional oil ever to be discovered already has been. Most of the rest is likely expensive deepwater (Brazil subsalt) or Arctic (ANWR).
Unconventional oil (heavy, shale) provides less future supply than you probably assume because of comparatively low TRR. Read the conventional energy essays (first of four groups) in Blowing Smoke for factual enlightenment on these matters.

The Dark Lord
Reply to  Rud Istvan
October 30, 2021 8:20 pm

and those 3 ways are wrong by definition (key word undiscovered) … they are guesses … mostly wild rear end ones …

Maureen
Reply to  markl
October 31, 2021 5:29 am

The Saskatchewan side of the oil sands haven’t really been touched for development

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Maureen
October 31, 2021 5:37 pm

Yea
But my people sing a new song

And they grow smartur

Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  markl
November 1, 2021 3:00 am

We have to hope that these F-wits wake up soon to just how much their lifestyles are dependent on the evil fossil fuels. Most of us on this list know how grim a future without them is, getting that message across to the snowflakes may take some doing. We need more articles online detailing just how much the average Green is immersed in fossil fuel from the ground up starting with their pricey cross-trainers. Modern fabrics no longer scream POLYESTER and some are nearly indistinguishable from the wool, cotton, linen, and silk that they mimic. Computers and the games so many are addicted to, social media, mobile phones, reliable supplies of food and drink, the very electricity to make all the great stuff work. Without fossil fuels the world is a very dark and unhappy place.

Geoff Sherrington
October 30, 2021 3:19 pm

Those with hands-on experience in the minerals industry generally have views similar to those of the author, for the simple reason that understanding increases with such experience. I have not met anyone in the industry who is primarily motivated by promises of personal profit. They are motivated because they can envisage the chaos, even warfare, that would be caused by a sudden exit from fossil fuels.
So far as one can gather, the zero carbon advocates seldom show much experience or understanding of the mineral industries. Often they only utter words like toxic, polluting, global threat, rapacious – you have read these activist attack words and more. They are not measured, lacking mature concepts like economic costs and benefits, preferring abusive doggerel. In short, they have no argument beyond the fabrications of their minds.
The advertising sector is now an integral part of the net zero thrust. They have little understanding of the realities as they dream along with the usual tactic of convincing the public that impossibilities are possible, even virtuous. This method has now peaked as we see widespread use of “GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY”. By definition, gambling is not able to be done responsibly, so call in the advertisers and all will be well. But, what is the next peak for the advertisers to conquer after they have played this ultimate card?
The focus on net zero has to be less effective from now on. There are no easy concepts left once the gambling one is played. Especially when its promoters are nearly devoid of the necessary experience. Geoff S

Rich Davis
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
October 30, 2021 4:18 pm

Interesting comment about “gamble responsibly”, Mr. S. If I’m not off my nut, I recall you’re in Oz. I’m in Connecticut pretty much on the opposite side of the rock. But this past week we have been inundated with gambling advertisements as the result of sports betting being legalized here. Is it a global phenomenon? We also have signs on the highway for cannabis shops. Seems like we are returning to a period of bread and circuses, ruled by the barking mad.

But I have to disagree on one point. About 15 years ago I flew through Las Vegas on the way to Phoenix and happened to have a quarter in my pocket. I put it in the slot machine and lost, then I boarded my flight. I have not so much as purchased a lottery ticket since. I reckon that’s gambling responsibly. (1.7 cents per year and falling)

Reply to  Rich Davis
October 30, 2021 4:57 pm

In UK we have been inundated with gambling advertisements for yrs, all saying “gamble responsibly”, (like that’s what they really want you to do !! ), gambling debt is a huge problem & getting worse.

John Bell
Reply to  Rich Davis
October 30, 2021 5:33 pm

SO MANY gambling ads here near Detroit Michigan! jeeze louise!

Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  Rich Davis
November 1, 2021 3:12 am

Gambling is a human weakness, too many smell the potential of great wealth if only they pick the right numbers. So they line up every week when the jackpot is huge and buy their tickets. I’ve strolled though a lot of casinos on the way to the all-you-can-eat-lobster buffet. They always force you to pass through the slots and tables to get to the restaurant. Ranks of unsmiling people, mindlessly stuffing their money into machines, it is very depressing and nothing like in the movies or on TV, where gambling is promoted as being tons of fun. I may have the odd vice or two but am ever so grateful that the desire to throw away money gambling it on random outcomes is not one of them!

Chraya
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
October 30, 2021 5:04 pm

The zero carbon advocates ignoring minerals is ironic given that wind, solar and batteries are heavily dependent on mining.

MAL
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
October 31, 2021 8:37 am

“Often they only utter words like toxic, polluting, global threat, rapacious” To bad for them those words apply to all the EVs we now have. The same for solar panels. The environmental clean from that stupidity will be massive. 

Keith Harrison
October 30, 2021 3:28 pm

How many have read Russel Conwell’s book or speech, “Acres of Diamonds” the proceeds which fund the establishment of Temple University in Philadelphia?

https://web.archive.org/web/20130101215120/http://www.temple.edu/about/history/acres-diamonds

It speaks directly to Terry’s final paragraph and his prediction

Eric Vieira
October 30, 2021 3:31 pm

I sometimes wonder if the “divesting strategies” against fossil fuel companies isn’t just a ploy by big investors to sell now when their stock is still high, then drive the stock prices far down, and then to rebuy them at a discount, and thus gain total control of the energy sector.

Andrew Wilkins
October 30, 2021 3:38 pm

Speaking of politics and probably OT I see AOC has gone full retard (again) https://www.shorenewsnetwork.com/2021/10/29/in-16-years-whole-regions-of-america-could-be-uninhabitable-aoc-predicts/

Gilbert K. Arnold
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
October 30, 2021 4:50 pm

There is a reason that AOC’s nickname is Alexandra Occasional Cortex.

Ray
Reply to  Gilbert K. Arnold
October 30, 2021 6:47 pm

I usually go with occluded cortex but it all works.

Independent
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
October 30, 2021 4:52 pm

According to her previous comments the world is going to end in 2030 anyway, so who cares what happens in 2038? The congresswoman should go take some more selfies and leave the serious policy discussions to the adults.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
October 30, 2021 5:56 pm

Unfortunately, she’s right. In 16 years, whoke* regions of the USA will be uninhabitable. These will probably mostly be in California, and all major cities.

(*another unintended auto-correct that is amusingly appropriate)

PCman999
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
October 30, 2021 10:23 pm

Hey, you coined a new word! What happens when the Woke take control and end up choking the economy and society in general – you’ve been Whoked!

Anon
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
October 30, 2021 6:02 pm

I have to agree with AOC here, if she is basing that on what her party’s policies did to the Rust Belt. (lol)

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
October 31, 2021 5:34 pm

My wife says it’s not cool to insult retards in that manner.

They are just neurologically delayed. In many cases permanently.

John Bell
October 30, 2021 3:51 pm

Every green energy scheme they try always requires MASSIVE amounts of money and fossil fuels to make happen, then it fails as it is shown to be inadequate, and then they fall back on the fossil fuels again, thinking that they will do it right the next time.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  John Bell
October 30, 2021 5:54 pm

thinking that they will do it right the next time.

Not surprisingly those same people view socialism in the same way … “next time is he charm.”

Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  Rory Forbes
November 1, 2021 3:24 am

I have heard that in some schools in the States (Arizona?) former residents of Socialist/Communists countries are brought in to speak of their experiences to the students. I hope this is true and becomes widespread. No one can trash Socialism/Communism so well as a former sufferer! Even ordinary citizens who have escaped such regimes are full of gratitude to no longer be under the thumb of tyranny. Or maybe it is the ordinary citizens who suffer the most. We have sizable populations of Russians and Ukrainians in Portugal and all these expats now revel in the ability to start businesses and become successful. None of these folks think Socialism works if only it is done right. They know the truth, it already works exactly the way it is supposed to work for the ruling elites!

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Pamela Matlack-Klein
November 1, 2021 9:53 am

We have sizable populations of Russians and Ukrainians in Portugal.

As we do here in Canada also … not to mention a very large contingent of Chinese from the Mainland. I have been closely associated with both communities over the years, so I have been getting a 1st hand assessment of the socialist world for many years. The trouble is, people here are so used to our luxuries they can’t imagine how others live, especially from the socialist countries. They actually believe Marxist hell holes would all be utopian societies if it wasn’t for nasty capitalism spoiling everything.

Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  Rory Forbes
November 1, 2021 11:14 am

It makes me sad when I take Ukrainian friends to the places we take for granted and they are amazed at how much stuff is available for sale! They all take pix and send home. We in the west simply cannot imagine going into a shop and not seeing abundance. For those living in Socialist/Communist countries, this is unheard of. Don’t know about China, do they have shops full of stuff to buy?

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Pamela Matlack-Klein
November 1, 2021 11:55 am

I haven’t been to China, but my friends tell me there was lots of high end luxury goods. When I was in Russia, many ears ago, there were Barioska shops for foreigners and Russians with “hard” currency. It’s all changing so fast now it’s hard to keep up. However, your point is well made. None of them have the sheer abundance of ‘stuff’ readily available in our shops.

John Robertson
October 30, 2021 4:50 pm

Well,Can Ahh Duh and the Eastern Airheads,fronted by Justine the First,have made it very plain.
They do not want the OilSands and they despise and fear the people who work them.
There is no place in Confederation for productive fiscally responsible citizens.
British Columbia and Quebec have both attempted to block Alberta and Saskatchewan ‘s exports.
This current Liberal Government rushed through laws blocking Oil Tanker traffic from carrying Alberta Oil,stymied the Kinder Morgan Group from expanding their pipeline to BC ports and eventually bought said pipeline.(To ensure it will never be completed?).

Law and contracts have become very fluid,when the Liberals hold power.

I expect Western Independence will emerge before the projected 30 years are up,failure to break free from the Freeloaders and Posers who currently rule us,will result in a Western barren lands.free of all investment and private business.

PCman999
Reply to  John Robertson
October 30, 2021 10:28 pm

But what are you going to do, you’re land locked!

Every one in Alberta is going to have to buy a Liberal membership and take it over from the inside – and the NDP too, those ultra-woke traitors would throw Alberta under the first bus they could find, even if it was not electric!

Gordon Pratt
Reply to  PCman999
October 31, 2021 10:16 am

In the long run, geography determines political boundaries.

Eventually there will be at least three countries in English-speaking North America, East Coast, West Coast and Midcontinent. There could also be some little countries in between the East Coast and Mid-Continent including possibly Old South and Rust Belt land. Midcontinent will stretch from Texas to the Northwest Territories in present-day Canada. Alberta, Saskatchewan, and most of British Columbia will be part of Midcontinent, a traditionalist nation with strong protection for the rights of the individual.

Western Canadians have long been ready to kiss Ontario and Quebec goodbye.

Felix
October 30, 2021 5:09 pm

This kind of silly hyperbole — “These slow-moving behemoths are being forced to adopt new green strategies, cut exploration budgets, and exit oil production as fast as possible.” — makes it hard to give any credence to everything else.

No, the oil companies will not be hounded out of business. All the EV-by-2030-40-50 and net-zero mandates will be ignored as reality shoves them aside. The world runs on oil and coal and natural gas, and people simply will not put up with third world volatile electric power. Even third worlders don’t like it, and their politicians know it.

Mike Dubrasich
Reply to  Felix
October 30, 2021 5:41 pm

Exactly. I haven’t heard one word from Big Oil about the skyrocketing prices. My guess is that they’re out of their minds with glee. They have a limited commodity. The higher the price the better. Constraining the supply (monopolistically) has always been their best strategy.

It turns out that CAGW hysteria works wonders for Big Oil, not against them. Beware the propaganda. Generally speaking, whatever the Radical Left says, the opposite is true. Follow the money.

Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
November 1, 2021 3:29 am

Wasn’t there a lot of hate being generated against oil companies under Carter because due to his foolish policies they were reaping huge “windfall” profits? In fact, their profits were fair but claiming they were raping the American consumers was more fun than admitting it was more the fault of the administration.

Andy Pattullo
October 30, 2021 5:33 pm

So well put. And we are among the most responsible and environmentally friendly producers of fuel. Remediate oil sands look like pristine boreal Forrest and much of the production now is SAGD with very minimal surface footprint. We should be both proud and supportive of what we have in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Joel O'Bryan(@joelobryan)
October 30, 2021 6:18 pm

Hallelujah!! All Hail Alberta! 🍁

Last edited 2 months ago by joelobryan
Rory Forbes
October 30, 2021 7:05 pm

I like to think of The Oil Sands as the most productive restoration of a natural oil spill ever undertaken. What was once a toxic eye sore polluting thousands of acres is now restored forest and meadows … and the whole project pays for itself c/w a nice financial reward for our efforts. It’s a win – win and a thumb in the eye of the crazy “greens”.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Rory Forbes
October 31, 2021 5:30 pm

Yes
I had a column length letter on that published in the Financial Post a decade ago.

Oilsands companies are environmentalist companies, cleaning a huge region of the largest natural oil spill in history, selling the waste product to finance continuing cleanup.

Brilliant solution to an intractable mess.
Only so many birch bark canoes you can patch with the stuff, glad we found better uses for it.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Pat from kerbob
October 31, 2021 8:51 pm

That’s good to know. That can’t be emphasized enough in the media, yet it isn’t even mentioned at all. All we ever get to hear are the crazies who want to shut it all down for “raping” the pristine countryside. Windmills and solar panels are far more evil.

The Dark Lord
October 30, 2021 8:15 pm

since shale plays are mostly natural gas I expext they’ll be around long after 30 years …

Burl Henry
October 30, 2021 8:35 pm

:

Just a test:

fluid new.png
PCman999
October 30, 2021 10:10 pm

There’s some new tech coming on stream soon that can free up the oil from the oil sands chemically, not involving a lot energy and the chemicals are recovered in the process. Not only Canadian oilsands will benefit but there’s trillions more barrels of oil sands in the US and China.

Like the situation has been for at least the past century: the more oil we use the more we find (or, technically, move from the uneconomical to the proven reserves column)

October 31, 2021 1:35 am

The demonisation of fossil fuels is based on a lie. This lie is that the sun is too weak to create the climate because its perceived average radiant power intensity at the Earth’s surface is 168 W/m^2 (post Albedo and post atmospheric absorption). This solar radiant flux translates to a thermodynamic temperature of 233 Kelvin (minus 40 Celsius) using the Stefan-Boltzmann equation. Clearly this surface temperature is too low to melt ice, water vapour being the dominant greenhouse gas under the radiant flux paradigm of climate. Consequently, carbon dioxide gas is called in to “bootstrap the climate” to an atmospheric temperature that is high enough to melt water-ice.
 
The key error in this bizarre analysis is that the Sun NEVER shines on to the surface of the Earth at night. Therefore, the correct power of the lit hemispherical solar radiant flux being absorbed by the surface is 336 W/m^2 (Figure 7 An Analysis of the Earth’s Energy Budget – Update). Using Stefan-Boltzmann this surface solar flux equates to a thermodynamic temperature of 277 Kelvin (plus 4 Celsius), an average temperature that is sufficient to melt ice over the full surface area of the lit hemisphere leaving no role for atmospheric carbon dioxide gas.
 
If Carbon dioxide gas is irrelevant for the radiative paradigm, as water vapour can create the climate all by itself, then its demonisation can only be political in intent.
 

Last edited 2 months ago by Philip Mulholland.
Steve Reddish
Reply to  Philip Mulholland.
October 31, 2021 12:43 pm

Are you saying the temperature of the sunlit side would be 4C if the Earth wasn’t rotating? Or that the average temp would be 4C after an average sunlit day of 12 hours?

Reply to  Steve Reddish
October 31, 2021 12:55 pm

Or that the average temp would be 4C after an average sunlit day of 12 hours?

Steve,
These are instantaneous temperature values based on a flux measurement in Watts (Joules per second). These values apply irrespective of the rate of planetary rotation.

Maureen
October 31, 2021 5:25 am

Unless our idiot PM gives it away to China which is a real possibility

James F. Evans
October 31, 2021 9:18 am

The political-economy surrounding hydrocarbons is the issue, not geologic physical capacity.

The question at issue is whether everyday people will accept a reduced standard of living while the rich carry on as if nothing has happened.

Without political concerns, hydrocarbons will not reach so-called “peak” for another 30 years.

It’s all about centralized control of the world economy for the Globalists.

Giordano Milton
October 31, 2021 11:19 am

The one thing we’ve always had was a surplus of politicians. But for some reason their price keeps increasing

Pat from kerbob
October 31, 2021 5:24 pm

A hundred years?
At current extraction rates, and the real kicker, current technology, we have close to 400 years.
It is essentially limitless in terms of human lifespans.

I plan to continue making money off it forever

Doug Proctor
October 31, 2021 6:55 pm

I’m a Canadian oil and gas geologist. When Bush and Cheney came here they touted the Oil Sands as a critical part of “North American” energy security. Which we knew was “American energy security”. The development of the oil sands was subsequently hampered, while the hydrocarbon resources of the Arctic were stopped as a pipeline down the Mckenzie Valley to produce this resource was blocked. Meanwhile, pipelines to the west coast and east coast for exports were also blocked. U.S. “green” groups like Tidewater were heavily involved. Why?

The American government knows that foreign production of a limited resource will cripple foreign nations when it runs out or is too expensive. Which is when the US becomes okay to use those of “North America” (including Mexico).

The long game.

Canadian o & g professionals have known this a long time. The Canadian reserves are hardly explored relative to the American ones, and pipeline refusals like Keystone keep them underdeveloped … for the future US use.

Three powers will remain: Russia (natural gas), the United States (oil and gas) and China (coal). [The rest are too small to matter (Australia has the coal but only 25 million people)].

Maybe the mid-east also. They’re smart enough to know when to restrict exports, just keep it for themselves.

Bob Hunter
November 1, 2021 7:53 am

Canada’s Oilsands will not be North America’s most valuable asset as long as Central Canada & BC’s lower mainland control the CDN govt. ie those regions have no fossil fuels and they don’t care about the CDN Prairies, therefore, the product will not be able to get to market.
And when Venezuela gets rid (????) of their lunatic dictator, and develop their oilsands, the USA & Mexico will buy Venezuela oil.
ie a better chance in Venezuela than trusting Central Canada to do the right thing.

spock
November 2, 2021 1:41 am
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