The Week That Was: 2021-10-23 (October 23, 2021)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool. …” – Richard Feynman
Number of the Week: Twenty Years
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The drumbeat for war on reliable energy continues to build from the UN and its supporters. Numerous studies are pouring out of the UN, Washington, and Britain emphasizing the need to abandon reliable electricity generation because burning fossil fuels produces carbon dioxide which adds to the greenhouse effect. Yet, without the greenhouse effect, we would not exist.
Without CO2, plant life would not exist, and we would not exist. Thus, without the greenhouse effect and CO2 it is unlikely humanity would exist. The issue is: are we getting too much of a good thing? There simply is no compelling physical evidence that we are.
This TWTW will focus on the work of Ross McKitrick because his work goes to a failure of the IPCC process in attributing climate change to humans. McKitrick discusses it simply in a paper he prepared for the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) that clearly discusses the important emphasis the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) places on calculation of probabilities using a faulty method for calculation of probabilities. McKitrick’s work was criticized by one of the founders of the new method for assigning probability of human influence on natural events. McKitrick’s critic, Myles Allen claimed that many more studies have been made, all with the same technique. Richard Tol demolished that argument.
Next week, TWTW will focus on the presentations by William Happer and Tom Sheahen at the Heartland Conference. Happer’s talk was philosophical, but his work is critical for understanding the Greenhouse Effect (better called the Atmosphere Effect) and SEPP Chairman Tom Sheehan discusses why he is confident it is sound physics. Also, it will take up other presentations by directors of SEPP, including Pat Michaels, David Legates, Willie Soon, and Howard Hayden.
Please note that the Global Warming Policy Foundation’s web site, the Global Warming Policy Forum, has changed to Net Zero Watch.com., emphasizing the extremely high cost of the UK moving to net zero CO2 emissions. Fortunately for the US, the UK is considerably ahead of it in the brave new world no CO2 emissions. This gives the American public the opportunity to learn from the folly, though it appears the Biden Administration and those who follow it are incapable of learning anything that questions their ideology.
TWTW established a new category Energy Issues – UK to highlight the lessons the UK may learn. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Mars and https://marsed.asu.edu/mep/atmosphere
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Failure to Test: Ross McKittrick, a Professor of Economics at the University of Guelph, Canada. He has expertise in statistical inference, a subject that is important in economics, psychology, climate, and others that involve analysis of data. He introduces his new paper on a statistical technique relied on by the IPCC by stating (footnotes omitted):
“In 1999, Myles Allen and Simon Tett published an article in the journal Climate Dynamics (henceforth denoted ‘AT99’), which formalised a procedure – optimal fingerprinting – for attributing observed climate changes to underlying causes, with a specific focus on forcing due to greenhouse gases. They also proposed a method called the Residual Consistency (RC) test, for ascertaining if the statistical model was valid.
“Optimal fingerprinting, which is sometimes called optimal detection, was instantly embraced and promoted by the IPCC in its 2001 Third Assessment Report (TAR), and has been referenced in every IPCC Assessment Report since. TAR Appendix 12.1 was headlined ‘Optimal detection is regression’, and began:
“’The detection technique that has been used in most ‘optimal detection’ studies performed to date has several equivalent representations…It has recently been recognised that it can be cast as a multiple regression problem with respect to generalised least squares (Allen and Tett, 1999; see also Hasselmann, 1993, 1997)’
“In 2014 a group of authors led by Jara Imbers, which included Myles Allen as coauthor, pointed to the impact the statistical method had had over the intervening years:
“’The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) ‘very likely’ statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability…as simulated by [climate models].’
“The IPCC’s promotion of and reliance on optimal fingerprinting continues today.4 It has been used in dozens and possibly hundreds of studies over the years. Wherever you begin in the literature in the field, all paths lead back to Allen and Tett (often via the follow-up paper Allen and Stott 2003). Furthermore, the literature has relied almost exclusively on the RC test for checking the validity of results. So, the errors and deficiencies in the paper matter acutely, even two decades later.
The introduction demonstrates the lack of rigor in applying the scientific method by the IPCC. If it finds something it believes works, it will apply it repeatedly without exhaustive testing. The method relies on the Generalized Least Squares Theorem (GLS) by Gauss-Markov (GM) which entails advanced mathematics including matrix algebra. The goal is to develop estimates (samples) of a population using the best linear unbiased estimates (BLUE). The key word is unbiased. In studying regression analysis to eliminate errors, students of econometrics are taught these conditions, which McKitrick teaches, but, apparently, no one with the IPCC understands them, or at least did not speak out.
Among the conditions are that the values (parameters) are linear (or can be made roughly linear), the sampling is random, the independent values are not correlated (closely related to, or dependent upon each other), the independent values are not dependent on the term that is being explored (called exogeneity), and that the scattering of the variables is similar (roughly constant, called homoscedasticity).
Using the example of the slope of a regression analysis, on page 4 and 5 of his new paper McKitrick states:
“Statistical theory tells us that as long as the regression model satisfies a certain set of conditions, there is a 95% probability that the true value of the slope (the one you’d get if you were able to sample the whole population) is within approximately plus or minus two standard deviations of the estimate of the slope. This is called the 95% confidence interval.
“So, we can use regression methods to fit a line through a sample of data – say hurricane frequency and temperature – and if the slope estimate is more than two standard deviations above zero, we can say we are ‘confident’ that an increase in temperature leads to an increase in hurricanes. If it isn’t, we say that the relationship is positive but statistically insignificant.”
In discussing the error of the Allen and Tett paper which the IPCC accepted unquestionably, McKitrick states in pages 7 and 8 of his new paper:
“Allen and Tett’s argument was something like this. They noted that applying a weighting scheme makes the fingerprinting model similar to a GLS regression. And since a properly specified GLS model satisfies the GM conditions, their method (they said) yields unbiased and efficient results. That slightly oversimplifies their argument, but not by much. And the main error is obvious. You can’t know if a model satisfies the GM conditions unless you test for specific violations. AT99 stated the GM conditions incorrectly, leaving an important one out altogether, and failed to propose any tests for violations.
“In fact, they derailed the whole idea of specification testing by arguing that they only needed to test that the climate model noise covariance estimates were ‘reliable’ (their term—which they did not define), and they proposed something called the Residual Consistency (RC) test for that purpose. They didn’t offer any proof that the RC test does what they claimed it does. In fact, they didn’t even provide a mathematical statement of what.it tests; they only said that if the formula they proposed pops out a small number, the fingerprinting regression is valid. In my paper, I explained that there can easily be cases where the RC test would yield a small number, even in models that are known.to be misspecified and unreliable.
“So, in summary, Allen and Tett’s method failed to ensure the GM conditions were met, and so failed to assess whether their estimates were reliable. In fact, as I argued in my paper, the Allen and Tett method, as set out in their paper, automatically fails at least one GM condition, and probably more. So, the results must be assumed to be unreliable.
“In the years since its publication, however, no-one noticed the errors in the AT99 discussion of the GM conditions, no-one minded the absence of a derivation of the RC test, and none of the subsequent applications of the AT99 method were subject to conventional specification testing. That means we have no basis for accepting any claims that rely on the optimal fingerprinting method.”
As published by the GWPF, Myles Allen and Simon Tett responded to the criticism by McKitrick. Richard Tol of the University of Sussex and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam wrote:
The debate between Ross McKitrick on the one hand and Myles Allen and Simon Tett on the other is a difficult one. It is about a detail in statistical theory. Most people try to steer clear of statistics, let alone the inner workings of estimators that are robust to heteroskedasticity.
Allen and Tett worked on a method developed earlier by Klaus Hasselmann, now a Nobel laureate. Regression analysis consists of a model and an error term. It maximized the similarity between model and data, minimizing the error. Ordinary least squares, the standard regression method, assumes that all errors are the same. If this assumption is violated, the standard errors of the estimated parameters are biased even if there are infinitely many observations. The test whether there is a climate signal in the data relies on those standard errors. That test is therefore wrong.
Allen and Tett were aware of this problem and proposed a solution in their 1999 paper. Unfortunately, their list of references shows that they did not consult much statistical literature. They did not visit Oxford’s excellent departments of statistics or econometrics either – where they would have learned that Halbert White had published a solution in 1980, a solution that was in every textbook by 1990.
The solution proposed by Allen and Tett does not solve the problem. On the contrary. Ordinary least squares would have done better. The estimated standard error is still inconsistent. Worse, McKitrick shows that the estimated parameter is now biased. Allen and Tett also proposed a test of their method. McKitrick shows this test is wrong as well: It finds too many false positives. That is, Allen and Tett published a non-solution that made matters worse plus a way to cover it all up.
In his reply, here and elsewhere, Myles Allen makes light of his mistake. It was so long ago. He also reveals that he does not understand the issue. Allen argues that there are now much more data. This would overcome all statistical problems. Nothing could be further from the truth. The Allen and Tett estimator is biased. More data just means that you have greater confidence in the wrong result. [Boldface added]
From a statistical standpoint, one can say that the confidence the IPCC expresses in its work that humans are responsible for climate change is unreliable. Others have estimated that about 10,000 studies use IPCC estimates of CO2 emissions that are far too high and unreliable. The same can be said for studies that follow IPCC’s assertions that humans are responsible for climate change. For years, TWTW and others have been stating that the claims of certainty in IPCC work are false, now we can clearly show why. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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How Much? At the Beginning? The government of UK Prime Minister “Build Back Better” Boris Johnson broke a cardinal rule of climate activism, by releasing its realistic preliminary estimates of how much it will cost to replace the current system of reliable electrical generation with unreliable renewables. Reporter Joseph Sternberg writes in the Wall Street Journal:
If Prime Minister Boris Johnson didn’t appear to believe so sincerely in the virtues of tackling climate change, you’d assume he was trying to sabotage the crusade against carbon-dioxide emissions. The bold plan he released this week for the U.K. to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 breaks the cardinal rule of climate activism: Never, ever, under any circumstances whatsoever, tell the public in one go how much they’ll have to pay and how much of their ordinary lives they’ll have to change to rein in emissions.
It’s not so much that this program is quantitatively different from climate-action agendas that other governments have implemented over the years. The British government admits it doesn’t know how much it will spend on the wide range of greenhouse-gas mitigations it proposes. But then neither does anyone else. No one has managed to total Germany’s spending on its long-running energy transition, although one credible guess pegged it at €120 billion for merely the five years leading up to 2018. U.S. Democrats resisted putting a price tag on their climate fever dream, the Green New Deal.
Rather, Mr. Johnson’s plan is qualitatively distinctive in foisting substantial changes on the section of the energy market voters notice most: the proverbial last mile between the national energy system and households.
The centerpiece of his plan is a program to replace home heating systems en masse, pushing homeowners to abandon gas-fired boilers in favor of green heat pumps with some subsidy but at considerable personal expense. There’s also a vague plan to tie preferential mortgage rates to green home improvements, and dozens of other promises (or threats) such as to increase the average occupancy per vehicle on British roads, presumably by encouraging more carpooling or use of buses and the like.
A companion fiscal report from the British Treasury, meanwhile, explains in greater detail than anyone has before exactly how taxation will change in a green economy. Around £37 billion a year will have to be found to replace the fuel taxes that electric-car drivers no longer will pay. That amounts to roughly 1.5% of U.K. gross domestic product a year in lost revenue by the 2040s. This means either cuts on other spending items or alternative taxes such as road-usage charges.
Talk about an experiment. The great unknown in climate debates has always been exactly how much voters are willing to bear in pursuit of reduced greenhouse-gas emissions. Mr. Johnson seems determined to force an answer.
The reporter then discusses possible reactions among voters and concludes.
They [voters] wildly overestimate the carbon benefits of abandoning plastics and underestimate the relative impact of Britons’ penchant for jetting off on vacations abroad. They also underestimate the carbon gains to be had from reducing the number of children per family—quite possibly because the idea of sacrificing one’s family, literally, for the climate is so preposterous it rarely features in these debates.
These perceptions have persisted because up to now politicians have been highly effective at creating the impression among voters that environmentalism is something someone somewhere else in the economy does. Mr. Johnson is starting to disabuse Britons of that notion with this week’s plan, and he may well discover there’s a reason few others have been willing to try.
See Article # 1 and links under Energy Issues – UK
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More Non-Science: Agencies of the US Federal Government are releasing reports on addressing dangerous global warming. These reports blindly follow the unreliable findings of the UN IPCC. The lack of critical thinking is similar to when the US committed hundreds of thousands of ground troops into Vietnam. A political fad is not a well-thought-out plan. See links under Change in US Administrations.
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Number of the Week: Twenty Years. For twenty years, from the time the IPCC published AR3 in 2001 to its publication of AR6 in 2021, it has uncritically accepted faulty science, as demonstrated by Ross McKitrick’s publication of the faulty statistical methods to attribute climate change to humans.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
New study confirms Sun/Cosmic-Ray climate connection
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Oct 12, 2021
Link to paper: Atmospheric ionization and cloud radiative forcing
By Henrik Svensmark, Jacob Svensmark, Martin Bødker Enghoff & Nir J. Shaviv, Nature, Scientific Reports, Oct 11, 2021
“A new study published in Nature Scientific Reports by researchers at the Danish National Space Institute at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) and The Hebrew University of Jerusalem suggests that the Sun’s activity in screening cosmic rays affects clouds and, ultimately, the Earth’s energy budget with concomitant climatic effects.”
Climategate Continued
4 More New Reconstructions Affirm The Medieval Warm Period Was ‘Warmer Than Today’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 14, 2021
Steve Koonin & The Factcheckers
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 10, 2021
“These factcheckers have no interest in facts. Their only concern is that views are not expressed which run counter to their extremist outlook, which is not based on fact and hard data, but on theories, models and prejudice.”
Google demonetizes climate skeptics and bans “denier” ads because skeptics win over too many people
The only people worth silencing are those who are right
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 9, 2021
Injunction Ruling Against YouTube/Google Censorship! Removal Of Lockdown-Critical Videos “Illegal”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 13, 2021
[SEPP Comment: According to the Cologne Regional Court.]
Big Tech is censoring the climate change debate
Fossil fuels are a miracle, but don’t go trying to say that on YouTube
By Daniel Turner, Spectator, Oct 12, 2021 [H/t Jim Buell]
Google Bans Ads That Spread Climate Misinformation
The new rules could put pressure on Facebook to take similar steps
By Corbin Hiar, E&E News, Via Scientific American, October 8, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Such as exaggerating greenhouse gas warming as claimed by Scientific American?]
Waiting for YouTube
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 20, 2021
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Plain English Lost on the High Court of Australia
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Oct 13, 2021
“There needs to be major punishment against universities for infringement of academic freedom of speech, such as fines or losing their accreditation. There needs to be active policing and investigations of the universities to make sure they comply and do not threaten academics with expensive legal action to stop the university’s behaviour becoming public.”
Peter Ridd case: James Cook University wins, proving we can’t trust their research as staff can’t speak freely
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 13, 2021
Top Berkeley Scientist Resigns, Says School Excludes Scientists Based on Political Views
By Laurel Duggan, The Daily Signal, Oct 19, 2021
COVID, lockdown and the retreat of scientific debate
Error-strewn attacks in the British Medical Journal show what awaits academics who challenge prevailing views
By Martin Kulldorff, Spectator, Oct 15, 2021
It’s Official: Dissident Academics Are Fair Game
By Augusto Zimmermann, Quadrant, Oct 15, 2021
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Heartland’s 2021 Climate Conference, Oct 15-17
Video, Multiple Speakers, Accessed Oct 21, 2021
Suboptimal Fingerprinting? A debate about climate statistics
By Staff, GWPF, Oct 18, 2021
Link to simplified paper: Suboptimal Fingerprinting?
By Ross McKitrick, GWPF, 2021
Welcome to Net Zero Watch
By Benny Peiser, Net Zero Watch, Oct 11, 2021
Thunderous New “Atmosphere” Publication: “Warming Of Last 20 Years Mainly Caused By Cloud Changes”
Warming of the last 20 years mainly caused by cloud cover changes
By Fritz Vahrenholt and Hans-Rolf Dübal (Translated, edited and subheadings by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Oct 9, 2021
Link to paper: Radiative Energy Flux Variation from 2001–2020
By Hans-Rolf Dübal, and Fritz Vahrenholt, Atmosphere, Oct 4, 2021
Radiative energy flux variations from 2000 – 2020
By Fritz Vahrenholt and Rolf Dubal, Climate Etc. Oct 10, 2021
2001-2019 Warming Driven By Increases In Absorbed Solar Radiation, Not Human Emissions
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 18, 2021
Link to first paper: Satellite and Ocean Data Reveal Marked Increase in Earth’s Heating Rate
By Norman G. Loeb, et al. Geophysical Research Letters, June 15, 2021
Irish Climate Scientist Speaks Out
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 12, 2021
The 2000 National Climate Misassessment
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 10, 2021
Video How many dire predictions made twenty years ago came true?
Energy in the 21st Century: Resources, Conversions, Costs, Uses, and Consequences
By Vaclav Smil For University of Manitoba, Real Clear Public Affairs, May 1, 2020
Link to study: ENERGY IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY: Resources, Conversions, Costs, Uses, and Consequences
By Vaclav Smil, Annual Review, Energy and Environment, 2000
“Bottom Line: Humankind’s economic advances in the 20th-century are correlated with an unprecedented rise in energy consumption, especially oil. Improved technology, extraction, and transportation significantly reduced energy prices over this period. Hydrocarbons are at the heart of that evolution.”
Green energy is five to ten times more expensive than fossil fuels yet gov’ts falsify the data
The goal of reducing CO2 emissions can be better met by building nuclear plants, but nuclear is blacklisted by the environmental lobby.
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Via Life Site USA, Oct 22, 2021 [H/t Richard Courtney]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Climate change threatens more than 100 mn people in Africa: UN
By Agnes Pedreo, Geneva (AFP) Oct 19, 2021
Link to UN report: Climate change triggers mounting food insecurity, poverty and displacement in Africa
By Staff, WMO, Oct 19, 2021
EM-DAT Disaster Database Creating Data Disasters
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Oct 21, 2021
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above!]
Fossil fuel production must be cut in half to control global warming: study
By, Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 20, 2021
Link to press release: Governments’ fossil fuel production plans dangerously out of sync with Paris limits
By Staff, UN Environment Programme (UNEP), Oct 20, 2021
UN climate report: Africa’s rare glaciers to disappear within two decades
By Jordan Williams, The Hill, Oct 19, 2021
Link to report: State of the Climate in Africa 2020
By UN World Meteorological Organization, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Everything is worse in Africa! The UN no longer talks about extreme poverty in Asia, because the problem has been solved by the use of fossil fuels?]
WHO Calls Climate Change ‘Single Biggest Health Threat Facing Humanity’
By Carlie Porterfield, Forbes, Oct 11, 2021
Obama joins YouTube special on climate change action
By Judy Kurtz, The Hill, Oct 18, 2021
[SEPP Comment: If he believed in the need, why did he buy a home on the waterfront in Nantucket?]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
More than 99.9% of studies agree: Humans caused climate change
Press Release, Cornell University, Oct 19, 2021
Link to paper: Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature
By Mark Lynas, Benjamin Z Houlton, and Simon Perry, Environmental Research Letters, Oct 19, 2021
The abstract begins: “While controls over the Earth’s climate system have undergone rigorous hypothesis-testing since the 1800s, questions over the scientific consensus of the role of human activities in modern climate change continue to arise in public settings.”
[SEPP Comment: Typical survey nonscience. What controls? What testing? Why did climate change before humans? Why not ask if human emissions of CO2 cause 1 to 2 % of climate change, should we stop using fossil fuels?]
Climate purity alarm goes ding! 99% of scientists “believe” because the others got sacked
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 21, 2021
[SEPP Comment: See links immediately above.]
The Irrelevant Climate Change ‘Consensus’
By Anthony Watts, American Thinker, Oct 20, 2021
[SEPP Comment: See press release from Cornell above.]
Claim: Climate change caused the devastating floods in part of Brazilian´s Southeast region, study says
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 19, 2021
The Need for All Hydrogen
By Kristine Wiley, Real Clear Energy, October 19, 2021
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Much Pain for Net Zero Gain
By Alan Moran, Quadrant, Oct 13, 2021
Marc Morano Takes on Climate Alarmist Reporter at ICCC-14
By Dan Becka, WUWT, Oct 20, 2021
Video
Column: Do you rip off your shingles before finding out if new ones are available? It’s painful to watch those that do
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Oct 19, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
Too poor to cut coal use but rich enough to launch hypersonic weapons?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 20, 2021
Gradually and then suddenly
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 20, 2021
Link to: Federal Climate Adaptation Plans
Office of the Federal Chief Sustainability Officer, Council on Environmental Quality, Oct 7, 2021
“Damage and Destroy” Climate Zealots’ Final Solution?
By Richard W. Fulmer, Master Resource, Oct 21, 2021
La la la we can’t hear you
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 20, 2021
“Perhaps they have come to think that genuine climate action means doing without, not solving the problem. Because greens have developed a weird preference for strategies known to fail.”
The Wreck Of The Global Warming Narrative
By I & I Editorial Board, Oct 22, 2021
Would the Real Climate Change Hypocrite Please Stand Up!
By Kevin Mooney, Real Clear Energy, Oct 12, 2021
“‘ExxonMobil, along with the American Petroleum Institute (API), is deluding itself if it thinks that by supporting a price on carbon it will escape further regulation of its emissions and other so-called climate impacts,’ Cohen [of the National Center for Public Policy Research] said in an email. ‘If the Biden administration, congressional Democrats, and green energy providers get their way, the oil and gas industry will get more taxes and more regulations.’”
After Paris!
U.N. Climate Summit: A Meaningless Meeting Of Useless People
By I & I Editorial Board, Oct 19, 2021
Little Progress On New Climate Targets For COP26
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 22, 2021
Russian President Putin Another COP26 No Show
By Eric Worrall, WSJ, Oct 22, 2021
“In 2014, during the G20 summit in Brisbane, Australia, the Russian embassy was asked why they had parked a fleet of warships just outside Australian territorial waters. The Russian embassy explained the warships were performing global warming research, though they had a secondary role providing security for the Russian President.”
Here is The Hidden $150 Trillion Agenda Behind The “Crusade” Against Climate Change
By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, Oct 14, 2021
Department of Defense Climate Adaptation Plan
By Staff, Office of the Undersecretary of Defense (Acquisition and Sustainment). Sep 1, 2021.
Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security Through 2040
By Staff, National Intelligence Council, 2021
Exclusive: Kerry says legislation not essential to climate goals
By Sara Schonhardt and Jean Chemnick, Climate Wire, Oct 15, 2021
[SEPP Comment: The administration has other ways and doesn’t care if they are Constitutional.]
Biden’s Environmental Plans Aren’t Serious Solutions
By Kat Dwyer, National Review, Oct 5, 2021
“The Biden administration’s climate plans seem to be more about pleasing interest groups than helping the environment.”
Climate-fueled disasters are increasing, FEMA chief warns
By Benjamin J. Hulac, Phys.org, Oct 6, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
“With climate change fueling ever more weather-related disasters, the country needs to move away from basing its emergency preparedness plans on historical precedent and seek new models for future threats, Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell told lawmakers Tuesday.”
Even If Global Warming Reverses, Climate Alarmists Won’t Let Reality Sway A Useful Narrative
By Chuck DeVore, The Federalist, Via Texas Public Policy Foundation, Oct 7, 2021
It’s the 1970s all over again, and Joe Biden is the new Jimmy Carter
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 17, 2021
[SEPP Comment: An opinion in the Washington Post!]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Developing Countries Say No To Net Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 22, 2021
“Twenty countries, Algeria, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bhutan, China, Cuba, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe, make up the LMDC group, which has just published this statement:”
China Backtracking?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 16, 2021
Climate summit chief sets up fight over Paris Agreement’s goal
COP26 President Alok Sharma wants to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, but others are aiming for 2 degrees.
By Karl Mathiesen, Politico, Oct 12, 2021
Seeking a Common Ground
How to rev up the UK’s innovation engine
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Oct 14, 2021
“One of the key elements that is required for innovation to flourish is freedom. By that I mean the freedom for trial and error, particularly the freedom to experiment, to be wrong, to fail, to start again. This freedom for entrepreneurs was a feature of 17th to 19th century Britain, not just the North East where I live, but across the UK, making it quite distinct from continental Europe (except Holland).”
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Figueres: First time the world economy is transformed intentionally
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 21, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Towards poverty for all but the privileged!]
NIH Admits to Funding Gain-of-Function Research in Wuhan, Says EcoHealth Violated Reporting Requirements
By Caroline Downey, National Review, Oct 21, 2021
Why Bad Climate Legislation Is Worse Than No Climate Legislation
Moderate Democratic Senators Joe Manchin & Krysten Sinema Are Right to Oppose the Clean Energy Performance Program
By Michael Shellenberger, His Blog, Oct 17, 2021
Measurement Issues — Surface
Transport Of Tropical Ocean Heat Causes An Over Estimation Of The Global Average Temperature
By Jim Steele, Video, WUWT, Oct 19, 2021
Transcript: How Transport Of Tropical Ocean Heat Causes An Over Estimation Of The Global Average Temperature
By Jim Steele, A walk On The Natural Side, Oct 17, 2021
The U.S. Could Have Wildfire Smoke Radar
Imagine the ability to determine the three-dimensional distribution of wildfire smoke across the United States in real-time.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 10, 2021
Inconvenient Tornado Data Disappears
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 13, 2021
[SEPP Comment: NOAA at it again!]
Study warns of extreme heat in growing cities
By Jordan Williams, The Hill, Oct 21, 2021
Global urban population exposure to extreme heat
By Cascade Tuholske, et al. PNAS, Oct 12, 2021
[SEPP Comment: But no need to adjust urban thermometers for this urban extreme heat when calculating global surface temperatures!]
Changing Weather
Weatherbell winter outlook
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 20, 2021
Analysis: Hurricanes Have Not Gotten More Intense, Frequent Over Past 170 Years
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 10, 2021
No increase in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1860
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 20, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Also discusses how NOAA is manipulating tornado data.]
Update on the Strongest Coastal Cyclone in Northwest History and an Introduction to Pacific Cyclones. All in my New Podcast
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 22, 2021
Podcast, Major mid-latitude cyclone coming to US Pacific Northwest driven by significant north-south pressure gradient. Stronger storms occur in the Gulf of Alaska, but not offshore of the US Pacific Northwest. Two days out, the weather models do not converge, making prediction of worst impact impossible.
Very Powerful Storm To Impact The West Coast From Sunday Into Monday…Same System Can Result In A Mid-Week Severe Weather Outbreak And An East Coast Storm By Late Next Week
By Paul Dorian, WUWT, Oct 22, 2021
Saving California
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 19, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Most reservoirs are far below historic norms.]
Weather vs. Alarmism
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Oct 20, 2021
Changing Climate
Figuring out the lack of connection between CO2 and ice ages
By Ralph Ellis, American Thinker, Oct 12, 2021 [H/t Jim Karlock]
[SEPP Comment: Another issue is the ending of warm periods, when cooling occurs first followed by decline in CO2.]
Changing Seas
Bogus De-Oxygenation Crisis
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Oct 10, 2021
Video: Discussing Dead Zones, (Eutrophic areas) ICUN, Upwellings increased off Peru
Low oxygen levels along Pacific Northwest coast a ‘silent’ climate change crisis
By Michala Garrison, Seattle Times, Sep 28, 2021 [H/t Mark Albright]
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above debunking the claim.]
GBR, Indian Ocean, South China Sea Corals Have Experienced No Obvious Modern Warming
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 21, 2021
Link to one paper: Assessing multiproxy approaches (Sr/Ca, U/Ca, Li/Mg, and B/Mg) to reconstruct sea surface temperature from coral skeletons throughout the Great Barrier Reef
By Yang Wu, et al. Science of the Total Environment
Link to second paper: El Niño–Southern Oscillation and internal sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Indian Ocean since 1675
By Maike Leupold, et al. Climate of the Past, Jan 15, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Slight rise in Max and Min temps with data going back to 1871 contradicting PAGES2k nonscience in UN IPCC AR6 SPM.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Antarctic Temperatures Were ‘Up To 5°C Above Modern’ From 12,000–2,000 Years BP
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 7, 2021
Link to new study: The Dependence of Internal Multidecadal Variability in the Southern Ocean on the Ocean Background Mean State
By Liping Zhang, et al. Journal of Climate, Feb 1, 2021
How Antarctica Caused Global Cooling or Why Earth Remains in Ice Age Mode for Next 200 Million Years
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Oct 10, 2021
[SEPP Comment: An unusual presentation of the importance of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current influencing the general cooling over the past 50 million years,]
Churchill problem polar bear reports finally completed and posted online
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 8, 2021
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Increase Meat and Dairy Prices to Tackle Climate Change, Cambridge Report Demands
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 11, 2021
Lowering Standards
But but the models…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 20, 2021
“The chair of the Nobel Committee for Physics, Thors Hans Hansson, waved away the uncertainty by insisting that ‘We can predict what is happening with the climate in the future if we know how to encode the chaotic weather’. But we reply as the Spartans did to Philip of Macedon, ‘If’. (In fact we will add that the IPCC’s admission was not just that weather is chaotic but so is climate, which makes the challenge infinitely harder.) And we’ll believe it when the predictions are more accurate than random guesses rather than worse, as they typically are now.”
[SEPP Comment: To Philip’s statement: “If I invade Lankonia you will be destroyed, never to rise again.” Sparta’s reply was simple: “If”!]
NSF Statement on 2021 Nobel Laureates in Science
Press Release, NSF, Oct 12, 2021
The Nobel Prize In Climate
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 21, 2021
Video, from 2007 to 2021, it makes no difference if predictions are true
Adapt or Die, Warns [UK] Environment Agency
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 13, 2021
Net-zero Carbon is Harming the Poor in Africa
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 15, 2021
“Natural gas is in short supply in Europe, while huge reserves are ready for development in Africa.
“Why aren’t European companies, which represent 4 of the 5 largest holders of reserves, actively engaged in developing these badly needed natural gas reserves?”
AEP Falls For The New IEA Outlook
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 18, 2021
Link to: Report extract: Executive Summary: A new global energy economy is emerging, but the transformation still has a long way to go
By Staff, World Energy Outlook, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Sample of the IEA gibberish: “At the moment, however, every data point showing the speed of change in energy can be countered by another showing the stubbornness of the status quo.”]
Met Office Forecast Wetter/Drier & Colder/Warmer Winters
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 8, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Rich should pay for greater carbon footprint: study
By AFP Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), Oct 21, 2021
[SEPP Comment: A search of the web site of the World Inequality Lab at the Paris School of Economics failed to reveal a recent study on the topic. However, it revealed the following]
Climate Change & The Global Inequality of Carbon Emissions: 1990-2020
By Lucas Chancel, World Inequality Lab, Oct 18, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Punish industrialized countries for making plant life flourish.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
New European Rainfall Record?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 9, 2021
No, CNN, Wildfires Will Not Be Destroying Times Square, New York City
By James Taylor, Climate Realism, October 15, 2021
AEP Loses The Plot (Again)!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 22, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Headline of story by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is “Technology saves us: Oxford sees a $26 trillion gain for net zero; Decarbonisation is no global burden, but a bonanza for those quick to seize it.”]
The Scotsman Lies About Sea Level Rise
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 12, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Half of America doesn’t even want to spend $1 a month extra on green electricity or fuel
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 15, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Who are the Deniers?
By Staff, Governor’s Office of Planning and Research, California, Accessed Oct 11, 2021
Opening sentence: “If the experts agree on the existence and causes of climate change, why do some public opinion polls find that only about half or less than half of the American public is convinced that emissions from human activities bear responsibility?”
Second and third sentences: “A small but vocal group has aggressively spread misinformation about the science, aiming to cast doubt on well-established findings and conclusions. Their goal is to create confusion and uncertainty, thereby preventing meaningful action to remedy the problem.”
Joe Manchin accused of lining his pockets instead of listening to West Virginians on coal
By Barnini Chakraborty, Washington Examiner, Oct 14, 2021
New York Times Threatens Senator Manchin With Witchcraft If He Obstructs Democrat “Climate” Agenda
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 19, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Protecting the ozone layer is delivering vast health benefits
Americans will be spared 443 million skin cancer cases, 63 million cataract cases
Press Release, NSF, Oct 21,2021
Link to report: Protecting the ozone layer is delivering vast health benefits
Montreal Protocol will spare Americans from 443 million skin cancer cases
By David Hosansky, NCAR/UCAR, Oct 6, 2021
Link to study: Estimation of Skin and Ocular Damage Avoided in the United States through Implementation of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer
By Sasha Madronich, et al. ACS Earth Space Chemistry, Aug 10, 2021
[SEPP Comment: The Montreal Protocol as adjusted prevented exponential growth in US melanoma starting in 2020! But the claimed “ozone hole” is increasing. More NSF funded statistical drivel used to show a false need for international agreements!]
Rex Murphy: This energy crisis has been 30 years in the making. Why is anyone surprised?
None of the elite bound for the grand climate shindig in Glasgow have to worry about unmeetable energy bills
By Rex Murphy, National Post, Canada, Oct 13, 2021
“Winter is coming and the grim iceberg is heading towards the great ship.”
Despite Media Hype, This Year’s Wildfires Don’t Top One You’ve Never Heard Of
By William D. Balgord, Townhall, Oct 8, 2021
Parasitic Ingrate Journalist? Well-Paid German Public Television Director Ecstatic Over Painful Energy Prices
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 19, 2021
The “director at ARD German public television, which is funded in most part by legally mandatory license fees levied on every German household” said:
“It’s there, the price shock. Good! Only when oil and gas are markedly more expensive, will we be able to get global warming under control. More wind and solar energy? We can’t wait that long, and so we should be happy that we are being forced to alter our consumer production, heat more sparingly. use less energy for the household, no short flights…”
Fifty Years Since The Demise Of The Great Barrier Reef
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 21, 2021
Ironbridge–The Birthplace Of Climate Change!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 17, 2021
“Now the Ironbridge Museum has gone woke!”
Most Chukchi Sea ice in 20 years means no walrus feasts for polar bears at famous Russian cliffs
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 20, 2021
Prince Charles Adds to His List of Climate Last Chances
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 13, 2021
Sky News Doomsday Climate Report Flooded with Misleading Sea Rise Claims–Guido
By Gaia Fawkes, His Blog, Oct 12, 2021 [H/t Paul Homewood]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
The weeping voice of misled youth
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 20, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Greta Blames Britain For Climate Change
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 19, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Britain started the Industrial Revolution, and according to the UN IPCC, climate change did not start until the Industrial Revolution!]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Millions of lives could be saved by aggressive efforts to cut emissions: doctors
By Jordan Williams, The Hill, Oct 21, 2021
Link to Lancet Countdown: The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and
climate change: code red for a healthy future
By Marina Romanello, et al. Lancet, Oct 20, 2021
Questioning European Green
Where the policy of decarbonising the economy is taking us
Commentary by Alexander Tomský, The Reference Frame, Oct 11, 2021
“The ideology of total decarbonisation of the world is totally unrealistic, it is the science fiction of a sick mind, even the Western advanced economy is not capable of completely replacing fossil fuels at today’s technical level, unless – and this is an incomprehensible question – we return to building nuclear power stations, which ideological unreason forbids.”
Opinion: Europe made its energy bed and now must sleep in it — shivering
Price spikes have consequences
By: Mark Milke and Lennie Kaplan, Financial Post (Canada), Oct 13, 2021
What Green Job Revolution?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2021
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Why NY’s proposed ‘Green Amendment’ could devastate the state’s economy
By James B. Meigs, New York Post, Oct 20, 2021
Green Jobs
UK’s Johnson outlines 30,000 green jobs boost
by AFP Staff Writers
London (AFP) Oct 18, 2021
Johnson said the project off the east coast of England, involving Iberdrola subsidiary Scottish Power, would supply enough energy to power 2.7 million homes, and create 7,000 jobs.
[SEPP Comment: How many non-green jobs will unreliable part-time electricity destroy?]
Funding Issues
Investors Are Steering Away From Oil & Gas
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 14, 2021
“It goes to the heart of the energy crisis:”
Litigation Issues
Norwegian wind farms violate rights of Sámi reindeer herders, says court Access to the
By Euronews with AFP, Oct 11, 2021
“The Roan and Storheia wind farms in western Norway are part of Europe’s largest onshore wind energy project and were first unveiled in 2010.”
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
World leaders [OECD] reach landmark deal on a global corporate tax rate
By Silvia Amaro, CNBC, Oct 8, 2021
“Yellen applauded the many nations who ‘decided to end the race to the bottom on corporate taxation,’ and expressed hope that Congress will use the reconciliation process to quickly put the deal into practice in the U.S.”
[SEPP Comment: The OECD is the world? Did US Secretary of Treasury Yellen ever see an expansion of tax and spend she opposed?]
World Faces Fiscal Problems Much Worse Than Those From Covid, OECD Warns
By William Horobin, Bloomberg, Oct 19, 2021
Australians voted for “No Carbon Tax” but may get Net Zero deal anyhow. Thank China, and US Voters (who probably didn’t vote for it either)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 18, 2021
Green taxes on home heating could cause a public health crisis and trigger social disaster, Boris Johnson is warned
By Staff, GWPF, via Net Zero Watch, Oct 9, 2021
It’s Time for America to Embrace Carbon Border Adjustments
By Bob Inglis & John Sweeney, Real Clear Energy, Oct 21, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Inglis, a former Congressman from South Carolina, frequently used eggs pickled in vinegar to falsely warn against CO2 causing acidic waters. Apparently, he had no idea that many “black water” streams and bogs in South Carolina had true acidic waters, yet non-specialized amphibians, fish, and other wildlife thrive there.]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Useless Green Energy Hitting The Wall
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 13, 2021
Link to report: The International Energy Outlook 2021
By Staff, US EIA, Oct 6, 2021
“If current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption and energy related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050 as a result of population and economic growth.”
Global Warming Alarmism Threatens Era of Energy Poverty
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Markets, Oct 1, 2021
‘Tis The Silly Season With A Looming Winter Of (Energy) Discontent
By Tilak Doshi, Forbes, Oct 11, 2021
Treasury Net Zero Review
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2021
Link to: Net Zero Review Final Report
Analysis exploring the key issues as the UK decarbonises.
From: HM Treasury, Oct 19, 2021
“They rightly agree that we cannot possibly forecast what the economy will be like in thirty years time, but then proceed anyway to discuss possible economic growth and green jobs that might result from the Net Zero agenda.
Telegraph Calls For Referendum On Net Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 22, 2021
Net Zero Damp Squib
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 22, 2021
Link to: UK’s path to net zero set out in landmark strategy
The Net Zero Strategy sets out how the UK will deliver on its commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
By Staffs, Multiple Agencies, Oct 19, 2021
“reducing Britain’s reliance on imported fossil fuels will protect consumers from global price spikes by boosting clean energy”
[SEPP Comment: And when “clean energy” does not deliver on a still night?]
Energy rationing is on the horizon, warns GWPF
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2021
Link to: Survival of the Richest: Smart Meters and Energy Rationing
By Andrew Montford, GWPF, 2021
Review Of Heat Pump Running Costs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 21, 2021
“Time then to review the costs, given the rise in energy costs this year.”
[SEPP Comment: A tutorial on efficiency of heat pumps in Britain.]
Government’s years of irresponsible neglect has left Britain “at mercy of Putin”
By Staff, Net Zero Watch, Oct 18, 2021
Government refusal of North Sea natural gas field is irrational
By Staff, GWPF, Via Net Zero, Oct 8, 2021
The Heat Pump Con
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2021
Can the UK decarbonise power by 2035?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 11, 2021
Briefing: The Heat and Buildings Strategy
By Staff, Net Zero Watch, Oct 19, 2021
Britain faces bleak winter of soaring energy costs: Gas prices rise by 37% TODAY pushing more firms to brink of collapse, National Grid boss warns of electricity shortages and experts predict bills will soar to £1,700 a year
By Martin Robinson, Daily Mail, Oct 6, 2021
Business Secretary misleads on Net Zero costs
By Staff, Net Zero Watch, Oct 21, 2021
Energy Issues – Australia
Coal power will exit early say experts as two largest countries on Earth battle over coal supplies
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 12, 2021
What Coal Price Surge? Climate Council Predicts 20,000 Jobs to Go
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 13, 2021
Queensland Government Backs Coal and Green Hydrogen
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 11, 2021
Energy Issues — US
Challenges of the clean energy transition
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 22, 2021
More Unreported Hidden Costs
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 19, 2021
[SEPP Comment: New NGCC plants could operate at a capacity factor (CF) of about 80% yet forced to back-up solar and wind they are far less efficient with an average CF of 57%. A clear waste of energy.]
Will The U.S. Be Spared From The Global Energy Crisis?
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Oct 12, 2021
“The United States simply has not had to rely on the rest of the world to provide its energy supply, and that’s really what Europe’s problem has been.”
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
U.S. Likely to Ask OPEC for More Oil Supplies, Yergin Says
By Gerson Freitas Jr. and David Westin, Bloomberg, Oct 11, 2021
[SEPP Comment: If it happens, it is a demonstration of an incompetent administration.]
Return of King Coal?
Vijay Jayaraj: Coal Shortages Threaten Blackouts for 2.7 Billion Chinese and Indians
By Vijay Jayaraj, Reactionary Times News, Oct 11, 2021
“Analysts say that major contributors to this shortage are China’s restrictions on coal use, the higher coal price, and the post-pandemic increase in electricity demand.”
“Nevertheless, rising coal prices will cause headaches that likely will worsen with the approaching winter, when China burns the highest amount of the fuel. So far in 2021, global coal prices have registered a 249% increase over last year.”
BBC Climate Expert Explains How Australia Could Live Without Coal Exports
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 22, 2021
Massive Floods add to China’s Climate Policy Coal Crisis
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 12, 2021
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Suddenly Nuclear Energy is popular
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 13, 2021
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Transition to Nowhere
California’s switch to a primarily solar and wind-powered grid is a dead end.
By Mark P. Mills, City Journal, Oct 20, 2021
Wind Speeds Drop As They Speed Up!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 9, 2021
Climate Change Causes EXTREME CALM!
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 12, 2021
Crabs are just another victim of Wind turbines thanks to EMF pollution from undersea cables
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 16, 2021
The promise and perils of the solar energy boom
India’s solar power capacity is growing, and quick. And its struggle to meet ambitious targets is a global problem
Lou Del Bello, Wired, Oct 15, 2021
“This is Bhadla Solar Park in India’s Rajasthan state, currently the biggest such facility in the world. It has a capacity of 2.25 gigawatts (GW) spread across over 56 square kilometres – at full capacity it can power four and a half million homes. Bhadla has ushered in a golden age of cheap, abundant solar energy in India. It’s a beacon of success – but also a warning.”
[SEPP Comment: It does not work at night?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Can Biofuels Replace Jet Fuel?
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 12, 2021
Getting the Vapours Over ‘Green’ Hydrogen
By Peter O’Brien, Quadrant, Oct 16, 2021
Hydrogen boiler revolution ‘pretty much impossible’, says minister
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 10, 2021
From oil to renewables, winds of change blow on Scottish islands
By Veronique Dupont, Lerwick, United Kingdom (AFP) Oct 18, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Another attempt at tides generating electricity.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
On the storage of renewable electricity
By Professor Peter Edwards FRS & Professor Peter Dobson OBE, University of Oxford; Dr Gari Owen, Annwvyn Solutions, Net Zero Watch, Oct 12, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Building storage for “renewables” will cost more than the total UK annual budget.]
Carbon Schemes
Kemper Coal Gasification & Storage Plant Imploded (Obama’s climate ‘centerpiece’ bites the dust)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Oct 13, 2021
Lone CC&S Coal Project Closed (NRG rate base boondoggle)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Oct 12, 2021
“News flash: The billion-dollar Petra Nova Coal Carbon Capture System (CCCS) outside of Houston, enabled by a $190 million U.S. Department of Energy grant, has announced closure.”
Climate: Removing CO2 from the air no longer optional
By Marlowe Hood, Paris (AFP) Oct 19, 2021
“BECCS [bioenergy with carbon capture and storage] was penciled into IPCC climate models more than a decade ago as the theoretically cheapest form of negative emissions but has barely developed since.”
California Dreaming
Net Zero California Governor Just Banned Backup Generators and Fire Pumps
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 11, 2021
GE Gas Turbines Installed to Support California Power Supply
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Oct 6, 2021
Health, Energy, and Climate
EPA U.S. Heat Wave, Heat & Cold Death Rate Data Exposes & Destroys Biden & Democrats “Extreme Heat” Propaganda
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Oct 12, 2021
A timely reminder that cold kills
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 20, 2021
Other Scientific News
Researchers studying planets’ atmospheres reveal new information about Saturn-like exoplanet
Exoplanet’s atmospheric temperature and winds much higher than prior estimations
By Staff, NSF, Oct 19, 2021
Link to paper: Detection of Ionized Calcium in the Atmosphere of the Ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-76b
By Emily K. Deibert, et al., The Astrophysical Journal Letters, Sep 28, 2021
From the abstract: “Recent observations of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-76b have revealed a diversity of atmospheric species. Here we present new high-resolution transit spectroscopy of WASP-76b with GRACES at the Gemini North Observatory, serving as a baseline for the Large and Long Program “Exploring the Diversity of Exoplanet Atmospheres at High Spectral Resolution” (Exoplanets with Gemini Spectroscopy, or ExoGemS for short).”
[SEPP Comment: NSF funds NCAR, which ignores spectroscopy for study of the earth’s atmosphere, yet it funds studies using spectroscopy for studies of other planets?]
Helium: South Africa strikes new ‘gold’
By Linda Givetash, Virginia, South Africa (AFP) Oct 20, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Rare natural gas with up to 12% helium. Commercial helium extraction plants require 0.3% and the rare helium rich fields in the US may have concentration up to 5 or 10% with little methane.]
Other News that May Be of Interest
Origins of domesticated horses traced to north Caucasus region, study finds
By Brian P. Dunleavy, Washington DC (UPI) Oct 20, 2021
Link to paper: The origins and spread of domestic horses from the Western Eurasian steppes
By Pablo Librado, et al., Nature, Oct 20, 2021
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
When 2 Parents Tried To Make Their Young Daughter Practice What Greta Preaches…All Hell Broke Loose!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 15, 2021
Laughing at climate hysteria
By David Wojick, CFACT, Oct 22, 2021
Behold the walrus publicity stunt the WWF calls ‘science’
By Susan Crockford, Her Blog, Oct 18, 2021
Claim: Immigrants and Robots Can Ease the Climate Transition to a Reduced Population
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 11, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Will the robots be cuddly?]
ARTICLES
1. Oops, Boris Johnson Told the Truth About Climate
Voters are still in the dark about what they have to do to cut emissions. Finally a politician is telling them.
By Joseph C. Sternberg, WSJ, Oct. 21, 2021
TWTW Summary: The article is described in the main text.
2. Partisan Science in America
Scientists corrode public trust when they pretend to have authority on social and political matters.
By Gary Saul Morson, WSJ, Oct. 11, 2021
TWTW Summary: The professor of Slavic languages and literature at Northwestern University writes:
“Medieval thinkers pretending to infallibility often claimed to have received a direct revelation from God. Since the 19th century, secular thinkers have invoked science. As Anthony Fauci said in June, ‘a lot of what you’re seeing as attacks on me, quite frankly are attacks on science.’
“One can often tell that an appeal to science is unwarranted without knowing anything about the science in question. If science is treated as a solid block, each part of which is as indubitable as all the others, then science has been misunderstood. Science always contains some propositions less firmly grounded than others: on the frontier, newly discovered, based on experiments not readily replicated.
“Some parts of climate science have been tested countless times—like the greenhouse effect—but specific predictions about rising temperatures and their effects have often proved mistaken. Early last year we were treated to the delightful spectacle of Montana’s Glacier National Park removing signs that said its glaciers would be gone by 2020. Some scientific statements prove false; that’s how science works. Those who claim that to doubt any part of the consensus is to be ‘antiscience’ or ‘a denier’ are themselves being unscientific.
“Science operates by a process of criticism. Scientists don’t experience divine revelations, they propose hypotheses that they and others test. This rigorous process of testing gives science the persuasiveness that mere journalism lacks. If a scientific periodical expels editors or peer reviewers because they don’t accept some prevailing theory, that process has been short-circuited. Those who call for such expulsions have missed the whole point of how science works. They are the true deniers, far more dangerous to science than a religious fundamentalist who believes the world is 6,000 years old.
“When researchers fear losing a grant or being subject to personal attack if they question a predominant belief, that belief no longer rests on scientific grounds. True or false, it is superstition in scientific clothing. Science has been replaced with what the Soviets called ‘partisan science.’
“To doubt a scientist is not to doubt science. Quite the contrary, personal authority is precisely what science dispenses with, as much as possible. Dr. Fauci’s assertion of authority creates skepticism about all his assertions—legitimately, because the distinction between science and a particular scientist is essential. To be sure, nonscientists often have to trust scientists to inform them what the science has discovered. But that is all the more reason that scientists bear the responsibility of not letting political or other nonscientific criteria affect their explication.”
The author discusses possible sources of COVID, which Dr. Fauci tried to suppress and writes:
“Solidarity is a social, not scientific, category, and a judgment as to whether scientists in an authoritarian regime have been pressured is also not a scientific one. Anyone who has studied Marxist-Leninist regimes knows that it is possible that the ‘solidarity’ is not with the scientists but with the authorities supervising them.
“To explain their earlier statement, the scientists remind us that ‘we have observed escalations of conflicts that pit many parties against one another, including central government versus local government, young versus old, rich versus poor, people of colour versus white people, and health priorities versus the economy.’ To justify a scientific claim with such socially charged considerations is, again, partisan science. To the extent that scientific claims are informed by political considerations, they are no more well-founded than purely political ones.
“If scientists expect their statements to be trusted, they must themselves be trustworthy in making them. One had better be scrupulously honest before asking people to surrender their own judgment and simply believe what they are told. Scientists should be especially careful not to misrepresent political or policy judgments as being scientific. And they must protest vigorously and loudly when other influential people claim to speak in the name of science while misrepresenting it.
“Dr. Fauci admitted that he first stated that masks were ineffective in part because there was a shortage of masks and he wanted to preserve them for medical workers, who needed them most. He doesn’t seem to have considered: Once he shades the truth for a reason of policy, why shouldn’t reasonable people assume his other statements are based on policy considerations rather than science?
“Perhaps the clearest sign that a scientist, or anyone else, is misrepresenting science is a confusion of a science with political or social claims that it is thought to imply. That is what social Darwinists and Soviet dialectical materialists did. Such claims are never scientific. They are a clear sign of pseudoscience. One must argue for or against the social or political implications of a scientific discovery in the same way as for any social or political ideas.
“When President Biden, or a politician from any part of the political spectrum, claims he is only ‘following the science,’ one can be sure that he isn’t. Should we lock down? Lockdowns, like any other policy, entail costs as well as benefits. How do we weigh them? Not by epidemiology, which has nothing to say about the costs to children, small businesses, performing artists and human enjoyment generally. Science can inform a policy decision, but whatever judgment one makes, it cannot be based wholly on the science.
“When reasonable people cease to trust science in one case, how will one persuade them in another? By the end of the Soviet Union, almost no one trusted government statements about natural disasters or man-made catastrophes like Chernobyl. How will we handle the next crisis about which scientific understanding has something to contribute when scientists are known to base statements on policy preferences? That is part of the cost of the Lancet scientists’ accusation and of Dr. Fauci’s lack of candor.
“The greater danger to the public’s trust in science comes not from the uneducated but from politicians and journalists who claim to speak in the name of science. Still more, it comes from scientists themselves, either because of what they say publicly in the name of science or their failure to correct others’ misrepresentations of it.”
Another low from the north will reach the west coast. Authorities should prepare retention reservoirs.
Also, never, ever…. state how much effect your proposed measures will have on global emissions and on global warming.
The answer, as the UK is slowly coming to understand, is spend a fortune on measures which are impossible to implement, and which even were they possible will have no effect at all.
Both parties in the UK appear to have gone mad. There is no real political scrutiny of or opposition to this insanity.
Am I incorrect in thinking that the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere is .0004% not .04%?
No!
Yes. 400 ppm / 1,000,000 = 0.0004 x100 = 0.04%
Yes, you are right. I was thrown off by the double negative.
.04×1000000=40000
Why do you multiply .0004 by 100?
I see your point. .04% would be read as 4/100th of one percent.
The Svenmark paper on cosmic rays is huge if it’s accurate – it suggests 2 orders magnitude greater forcing (1.7 W/m2) from cosmic rays versus IPCC’s “high confidence” that it’s only 0.1 W/m2. Oops, IPCC, you may need to tweek those models again.
Oops myself – that should be *one* order of magnitude…
“Number of the Week: Twenty Years. For twenty years, from the time the IPCC published AR3 in 2001 to its publication of AR6 in 2021, it has uncritically accepted faulty science, as demonstrated by Ross McKitrick’s publication of the faulty statistical methods to attribute climate change to humans”
Ed Berry’s analysis of the effect of human emissions on atmospheric CO2 shows that the IPCC central physical assumption: 100%of the recent increase in atmospheric CO2 is human caused”, is also incorrect as it is about 25% not 100%
I have previously made the point that there is no evidence that the 2020 reduction in anthropogenic emissions, at least 18% in April, did not result in any measurable change in either the total seasonal high, or the rate of increase during the Winter ramp-up.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/06/11/contribution-of-anthropogenic-co2-emissions-to-changes-in-atmospheric-concentrations/
Today, there was a BBC article posted on Yahoo News that the 2020 “… amounts of CO2, methane and nitrous oxide rose by more than the annual average in the past 10 years.”
https://news.yahoo.com/climate-change-greenhouse-gas-concentrations-094707831.html
This suggests to me that if the agent supposedly responsible for increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 decreased during a given year, but the concentration actually increased, something else is driving the change!
This is anathema to the claim that humans are responsible for the annual increases in what is considered by alarmists to be the ‘control knob’ on warming.
The alternative scenario is that if the rate of CO2 build-up in the atmosphere had decreased in 2020, and the year had been cooler, then the course of action to reduce warming would be obvious. However, that isn’t what happened! In short, we are expected to accept the claims of alarmists without any corroborating evidence that required sacrifices will be rewarded with the hoped for results.
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/carbon-dioxide-levels-continue-record-levels-despite-covid-19-lockdown
“2020 Trends
The Global Carbon Project estimated that during the most intense period of the shutdown, daily CO2 emissions may have been reduced by up to 17% globally due to the confinement of the population. As the duration and severity of confinement measures remain unclear, the prediction of the total annual emission reduction over 2020 is very uncertain.
Preliminary estimates indicate a reduction in the annual global emission between 4.2% and 7.5%. At the global scale, an emissions reduction this scale will not cause atmospheric CO2 to go down. CO2 will continue to go up, though at a slightly reduced pace (0.08-0.23 ppm per year lower). This falls well within the 1 ppm natural inter-annual variability. This means that on the short-term the impact of the COVID-19 confinements cannot be distinguished from natural variability, according to the Bulletin.”
“This falls well within the 1 ppm natural inter-annual variability.”
Very true.
However, the one year 1 ppm cycle is quite regular, driven by the annual seasonal cycle and plant growth, primarily in the northern hemisphere.
Here we are in Oct., 2021. with the decrease some months behind us already. The decrease should be visible by now, and become even more apparent as more monthly data comes in, following the annual cycle.
But so far, nothing. Stay tuned.
However, that didn’t happen. A more sensitive test than the annual net change is the rate of growth during the seasonal ramp-up phase when the impact of sinks is minimal. Some years do show a pause in growth. However, not 2020!
As to the issue of the natural inter-annual variability, the graph for 2019-2020 is almost identical to 2018-2019, with respect to range and slope for the ramp-up phase. Differences are much less than the average annual variability; see Fig. 3.
Did you read my linked article, or at least look at the graphs? If so, you did not respond to the substance of my remarks, which is that the first-derivative of the monthly concentrations is more sensitive CO2 flux than the net annual change, which conflates two processes, source-emissions and sink-absorptions.
You might want to check the increase in SO2 versus CO2? La Palma has been smoking for over a month now. I wonder how the other volcanoes are doing.
You should have quit at “measurable change”. ALL of these short term, first derivative values are TSTM. Fussing over pandemic departures is a waste of time. My concern is over the multi decadal, man made increases.
Within two days, cold air over the Rocky Mountains will reach as far as Texas.
It certainly did, Ireneusz. Exactly spot on.
The animation below shows the rate at which the surface temperature of the Northeast Pacific is dropping as a result of the blocked circulation over the Bering Strait.
Due to the increase in solar activity (in the solar southern hemisphere), a further decline in the Niño 3.4 index can be expected.
The leading photo by Charles offers a nice view of the dynamics of the clouds. How much hiking does Charles do to get his awesome photos? Is someone standing in the shadow of the rocks with a blue garment or something draped over their left shoulder?