Climate Alarmist Deception Distorting Long Established U.S. Heat Wave Data

Guest essay by Larry Hamlin

The “gold standard” for EPA heat wave established data in the U.S. over the last 125 years is the U.S. Annual Heat Wave Index for 1895-2020 shown below which is Figure 3 from the EPA’s recently modified climate change heat wave indictors website.

The EPA notes the following description of the clearly obvious record high heat wave multi-day extreme heat event occurrences of the 19030s depicted in Figure 3 above as follows:

“Longer term records show that heat waves in 1930s remain the most severe in recorded U.S. history (see Figure 3). The spike in Figure 3 reflects extreme, persistent heat waves in the Great Plains region during a period known as the “Dust Bowl.”  Poor land use practices and many years of intense drought contributed to these heat waves by depleting moisture and reducing the moderating effects of evaporation.”

“Figure 3 provides another perspective to gauge the size and frequency of prolonged heat wave events. It shows the U.S. Annual Heat Wave Index, which tracks the occurrence of heat wave conditions across the contiguous 48 states from 1895 to 2020. This index defines a heat wave as a period lasting at least four days with an average temperature that would only be expected to occur once every 10 years, based on the historical record. The index value for a given year depends on how often such severe heat waves occur and how widespread they are.”

“Temperature data are less certain for the early part of the 20th century because fewer stations were operating at that time. In addition, measuring devices and methods have changed over time, and some stations have moved. The data in Figure 3 have been adjusted to the extent possible to account for some of these influences and biases, however, and these uncertainties are not sufficient to change the fundamental nature of the trends.”

Figure 3 of the EPA heat wave index reflects heat wave outcomes for the U.S. over the last 120+ years that is consistent with and supported by data presented in the Climate Science Special Report, Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I report which presents an authoritative assessment of the heat wave climate science, with focus on the United States. 

Chapter 6 of the report titled “Temperature Changes in the United States” notes time related changes in the U.S. for Coldest and Warmest Temperature averages for the period from 1900 to 2018 as follows:  

“Time series (bottom) depict the area-weighted average for the contiguous United States. Estimates are derived from long-term stations with minimal missing data in the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily dataset.”

The Climate Science Special Report further notes:

Since the mid-1960s, there has been only a very slight increase in the warmest daily temperature (Warmest Temperature graph above) of the year (amidst large inter annual variability). Heat waves (6-day periods with maximum temperature above 90th percentile for 1961-1990increased in frequency until the mid-1930’s, became considerably less common through the mid-1960s, and increased in frequency again thereafter (Figure 6.4 below). As with warm daily temperatures, heat wave magnitude reached a maximum in the 1930s. The frequency of intense heat waves (4-day 1-in-5-year events) has generally increased since the 1960s in most regions except the Midwest and the Great Plains.” 

Figure 6.4

EPA changed its Climate Change Indicators page for Heat Waves after Biden and the climate alarmist Democrats took power in 2020 with the new manufactured alarmist graphics trying to portray increasing heat waves while concealing the “gold standard” Heat Wave Index as shown below.

The “gold standard” measured data representing the prior 125 year period of U.S. heat wave occurrences and intensity was hidden in a tiny thumbnail size Figure 3 in the lower right corner and replaced with a page providing politically driven increasing heat wave climate alarmist deceptive graphics that excluded the period prior to 1960 thus removing over 60+ years of measured heat wave data from view (Joseph Stalin era disappearing act) as summarized below.

“A typical example is the indicator for heat waves. This is illustrated in the left panel of the figure below, depicting the EPA’s representation of heat wave frequency in the U.S. from 1961 to 2019. The figure purports to show a steady increase in the occurrence of heat waves, which supposedly tripled from an average of two per year during the 1960s to six per year during the 2010s.

Unfortunately, the chart on the left is highly deceptive in several ways. First, the data is derived from minimum, not maximum, temperatures averaged across 50 American cities. The corresponding chart for maximum temperatures, shown in the right panel above, paints a rather different picture – one in which the heat wave frequency less than doubled from 2.5 per year in the 1960s to 4.5 per year in the 2010s, and actually declined from the 1980s to the 2000s.

This maximum-temperature graph revealing a much smaller increase in heat waves than the minimum-temperature graph displayed so boldly on the EPA website is dishonestly hidden away in its technical documentation.”

“A second deception is that the starting date of 1961 for both graphs is conveniently cherry-picked during a 30-year period of global cooling from 1940 to 1970. That in itself exaggerates the warming effect since then. Starting instead in 1980, after the current bout of global warming had begun, it can be seen that the heat wave frequency based on maximum temperatures (right panel) barely increased at all from 1981 to 2019. Similar exaggeration and sleight of hand can be seen in the EPA indicators for heat wave duration, season length and intensity.”


“A third deception is that the 1961 start date ignores the record U.S. heat of the 1930s, a decade characterized by persistent, searing heat waves across North America, especially in 1934 and 1936. The next figure shows the frequency and magnitude of U.S. heatwaves from 1900 to 2018.

The frequency (top panel) is the annual number of calendar days the maximum temperature exceeded the 90th percentile for 1961–1990 for at least six consecutive days. The EPA’s data is calculated for a period of at least four days, while the heat wave index (lower panel) measures the annual magnitude of all heat waves of at least three days in that year combined.

Despite the differences in definition, it’s abundantly clear that heat waves over the last few decades – the ones publicized by the EPA – pale in comparison to those of the 1930s, and even those of other decades such as the 1910s and 1950s. The peak heat wave index in 1936 is a full three times higher than it was in 2012 and up to nine times higher than in many other years.”

The EPA also prominently featured a misleading and erroneous deceptive temperature display highlighting the numbers of daily high and high daily low temperatures over the period 1910 to 2020 as shown below.

However, comparisons of this deceptive data trend of numbers of daily high and daily high low temperatures compared to the “gold standard” measured heat wave index occurrence and intensity relevant trend data shows the numbers display scheme trend is clearly inconsistent with the measured U.S. EPA Heat Wave Index data trend by trying to hide the clearly dominant 1930s peak and exaggerate the post 1980 period as shown below. 

This deceptive temperature numbers scheme trend is also clearly inconsistent with the “Warmest Temperature” data trend presented in the Fourth U.S. National Climate Assessment Report that shows little increase in Warmest Temperatures after the 1960s as shown in the graph below.

The National Climate Assessment Report “Warmest Temperature” trend data graph above shows that the average maximum temperature during any given heat wave has declined in the U.S. from 101°F in the 1930s to 99°F since the 1980s. 

The deceptive temperature numbers scheme trend is also clearly inconsistent with the “Warm Spells” (heat wave) data trend over the 1900 to 2018 period presented in the Fourth U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by trying to conceal the clear record high heat wave occurrences and intensity of the 1930s and exaggerate the post 1980s period as shown in the graph below.

The National Climate Assessment Report average duration of “Warm Spells” (heat waves) shown above has declined from around eleven days during the 1930s to 6.5 days during the 2000s. In other words, the average duration of heat waves have declined by nearly 41% since the 1930s.

The same complete lack of trend consistency is also present in another deceptive graphical portrayal using the record daily high and record daily low ratio data to falsely suggest increasing temperatures and heat wave trends compared to the “gold standard” heat wave occurrence and intensity data trend as shown below. 

This same clear inconsistency exists in comparisons of record high and low ratio data trend schemes compared to “Warmest Temperature” data trend and “Warm Spells” (heat wave) data trends respectively from the Fourth U.S. National Climate Assessment Report by these schemes trying to hide the peak temperature and heat wave period of the 1930s while exaggerating the post 1980 period as shown in the graphs below.

The use of politically contrived deceptive schemes using number of daily highs and high daily lows and ratios of number of daily high and lows are completely inadequate and inappropriate to substitute for measured warmest temperature and heat wave data trends in defining the climate behavior over time in the U.S. that  long established and superior scientific assessments by the EPA Heat Wave Index data trends and National Climate Assessments Report Warmest Temperature and Warm Spells data trends have provided.   

However, comparisons of the number of daily U.S. maximum temperatures above 100- and 105-degrees F over the period from 1895 to 2018 (with that data showing that very hot days in the U.S. over 100 degrees F were much higher in the 1930s than at any other time in the last 125 years) is clearly consistent with the U.S. “gold standard” heat wave occurrence and intensity data trend as shown below.

Additionally, the USCRN temperature network maximum temperature anomaly measurements for the contiguous U.S. also provides consistent agreement with the EPA heat wave index data trend associated time interval as shown below from a prior WUWT article      


“NOAA measurements of temperature anomaly data across the contiguous 48 U. S. States (Parameter: Maximum Temperature Anomaly; Time Scale: 1-Month; Months: All Months) using its most reliable USCRN temperature anomaly measurement data system establishes that the U.S. is not experiencing increasing “extreme heat” as presented and established below using NOAA temperature anomaly data which clearly shows that the nations maximum temperature anomaly measurement data has no increasing trend and in fact has declined since temperature anomaly peaks in years 2006 and 2012.”

Biden and the Democrat’s Administration scientifically unsupported “extreme heat” politics is promoting climate alarmist advocates to manufacture politically contrived  deceptive propaganda schemes using graphically devised presentations that are both misleading and erroneous in falsely portraying that the U.S. is experiencing increasing “heat waves” and “extreme heat” to push its massively costly, bureaucratically onerous, scientifically flawed and completely real world meaningless climate alarmist agenda.   

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n.n
October 25, 2021 10:02 am

A handmade tale.

whatlanguageisthis
Reply to  n.n
October 25, 2021 11:03 am

In carbon we trust
May your wallet open
Under her eye

stare.jpg
Allan MacRae
Reply to  n.n
October 25, 2021 11:29 am

A very good paper – exposing the fraudsters.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Allan MacRae
October 25, 2021 11:51 am

The Biden EPA ought to be sued for defrauding the American people about climate change.

The Climategate Charlatans attempted to erase the Medieval Warm Period and other warm periods in the past and now the Biden administration is trying to erase the heat of the 1930’s.

That’s hard to do since evidence of these temperatures is everywhere you look, including at the EPA. The problem is the general public does not know this because the Biden administration in conjunction with the Leftwing Media are distorting the facts of the situation in an effort to scare people into wasting money on climate change boondoogles.

What does it mean if the temperatures were as warm or warmer in the recent past than they are today? It means that CO2 is not the control knob of the Earth’s temperatures and is at best a minor player, and it means we don’t have to worry about spending money on trying to regulate CO2.

In other words, if it was just as warm in the recent past as it is today, then this blows up the Human-caused Climate Change narrative, since it is no warmer today than in the past, yet there is much more CO2 in the air than then, so CO2 does not have a discernable effect on the Earth’s temperatures.

That’s why the promoters of Human-caused Climate Change try to erase the heat of the past. It exposes their climate change hoax. They want you to think we are living in the hottest times in human history. We are not, and the written record proves it.

Last edited 1 month ago by Tom Abbott
Rory Forbes
Reply to  Tom Abbott
October 25, 2021 1:35 pm

That’s exactly true. Furthermore, it’s usually pointless getting into too much scientific detail when it’s so obvious they’re not even following the science.

spangled drongo
Reply to  Tom Abbott
October 26, 2021 2:46 am

So true. The silliness about this western world search for zero emission to prevent global warming is shown up by the fact that this warming is just not happening.

If the world was warming then the oceans would be rising from net ice melt yet the latest Fort Denison mean sea level in September 2021 is showing that the Pacific, the worlds biggest ocean, is 223 mm LOWER than it was at the first recording in May 1914:

http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO70000/IDO70000_60370_SLD.shtml

Vuk
Reply to  n.n
October 25, 2021 11:45 am

Question is: Why the USA had 1940’s heath waves?
I think it could be for same reason that 1970s had cold spells. At both periods the N.Atlantic and the sunspot activity were in phase as it is shown in this graph

AMO - SSN.gif
SxyxS
Reply to  Vuk
October 25, 2021 12:26 pm

Who would have thought that the thing that is responsible for 99.99% heat on earth could be controlling the climate
and not 0.01 % “man made” co2 in our atmosphere?

Everyone except experts.
And it takes a lot of “scientists” to ignore the elephant-stampede in the room and to successfully blame all the broken furniture on a mosquito.

Alan the Brit
Reply to  SxyxS
October 26, 2021 12:58 am

That is simply because “climate change”, or “global warming” as it used to be called in the good old fashioned days, cannot & must not under any circumstances be seen to have a natural component otherwise people might just start to ask questions & challenge the orthodoxy of manmade warming, & that will never ever do. Welcome to the great “Reset” in Western society, the Neo-Feudalism that the, past its sell by date, UN seeks!!! Oh on top of being responsible for 99.9% of the heat on Earth, it also possesses 99.9%+ of the mass of the Solar System, & these “independent” scientists are paid to come to the negative conclusions that they publish!!! Entire university departments have been created using this public funding to come to those conclusions!!! When someone’s salary is based upon not understanding something, they will continue to not understand it, regardless of the evidence before them!!! Don’t forget the great cop-out clause that will be invoked, “we were simply basing our conclusions on the best available science at the time!”.

HotScot
October 25, 2021 10:06 am

As mad as pedo Joe.

HotScot
Reply to  HotScot
October 25, 2021 12:44 pm

The EPA nonsense, not the article……

Pamela Matlack-Klein
October 25, 2021 10:26 am

And people will believe that these adjusted numbers are accurate because it comes from a source we are supposed to be able to trust. Unfortunately, it has become harder and harder to trust anything out of D.C. because they so seldom tell the truth. The EPA lost any credibility they might have had when they came out with the Endangerment ruling against CO2.

Spetzer86
Reply to  Pamela Matlack-Klein
October 25, 2021 11:01 am

One of the most amazing things in today’s world is how many people continue to trust and parrot what the MSM and governments drip out. Nothing seems beyond the pale to lie about or simply twist beyond all recognition. I saw where the estimated average time between “conspiracy theory” and proven fact is down to 60 days now.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Spetzer86
October 25, 2021 11:59 am

Unfortunately, many people are easily influenced.

Joel
Reply to  Tom Abbott
October 26, 2021 7:41 am

I think most people go along to get along. They just don’t care.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Spetzer86
October 25, 2021 12:45 pm

One of the most amazing things in today’s world is how many people continue to trust and parrot what the MSM and governments drip out. Nothing seems beyond the pale to lie about or simply twist beyond all recognition.

This is my thought too. We have two articles today describing provable data manipulation. Firstly to lie about how much it has warmed, and secondly to lie about how much the proposed solution will cost.

The only solution I can see is catastrophic cooling and extended power cuts, and then rational adults can take over again. Unfortunately, people will die because of these lying scum.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
October 25, 2021 2:17 pm

I see no soft landing for the warmunist madness. Greta, Kerry, and AOC are too far gone. Facts are ignored and they are immune to logic. They have created a vast grant beholden dishonest ‘science’ community to feed their ‘scientific’ delusions despite:

It hasn’t warmed much so the meme was shifted to climate change.
Arctic summer sea ice hasn’t disappeared.
Sea level rise isn’t accelerating.
Intermittent renewables are ruinous, as Texas showed Feb 2021.
China and India don’t care.

Doc Chuck
Reply to  Rud Istvan
October 25, 2021 10:31 pm

Rud, have you missed the whole existentialist drive to address a troubling philosophic emptiness by replacing unwelcome material facts with creative, poetically relativist, scenarios that subjectively seem to better affirm some meaning to one’s life through the supreme authenticity of affecting humanity’s future? It lately threatens to prevail as ‘woke’ but has been brewing for around a century now.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Doc Chuck
October 25, 2021 11:18 pm

Let’s go, Brandon.

Allan MacRae
Reply to  Pamela Matlack-Klein
October 25, 2021 11:26 am

MORE U.S. SKI RESORTS OPEN EARLY AS “SUPERSTORM” HITS, “COLD WAVE CONDITIONS” ALREADY SWEEPING INDIA, + LA NIÑA TO DEEPEN THE GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS WITH A BRUTAL WINTER
October 25, 2021 Cap Allon

Things are progressing exactly as we predicted – in 2002 and more precisely in 2013, as described in my latest paper:

SCIENTIFIC COMPETENCE – THE ABILITY TO CORRECTLY PREDICT”
by Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., October 2021
http://correctpredictions.ca/
(excerpt)

The ability to correctly predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence.
 
Following are the correct predictions of Allan MacRae and colleagues on two important subjects:
– GLOBAL WARMING ALARMISM
– COVID-19 LOCKDOWNS AND ”VACCINES”
 
Our scientific predictions on both these subjects are infinitely more accurate than the mainstream narratives, which have been false and baselessly alarmist to date.

Last edited 1 month ago by Allan MacRae
Tom Halla
October 25, 2021 10:26 am

People rarely use cut-off graphs to be honest.

Retired_Engineer_Jim
October 25, 2021 10:42 am

Isn’t there a US Federal Law addressing truth in data representations, and, if a particular publication is found to be erroneous, requiring a retraction?

If so, there would appear to be a cause for action here.

Jeff Reppun
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
October 25, 2021 11:27 am

OMB stipulate quality assurance requirements, particularly around issues of significant financial consequence, that these agencies are supposed to adhere to, but they do not and I have yet to see any of the skeptic experts challenge. Ultimately the lack of challenge only encourages further abuse and leaves WUWT as a preaching to the choir site.

4 Eyes
Reply to  Jeff Reppun
October 25, 2021 2:42 pm

Well here’s a chance for Big Oil and Big Coal to start sending out some cheques to to their legally qualified supporters who have been battling unpaid for them, no sarc intended

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
October 25, 2021 3:05 pm

There is federal law against stealing elections. There is not federal law supporting vaccine mandates. There is federal law against BLM riots destroying property. There is not federal law declaring parents protesting CRT in public schools domestic terrorists.
See a perverse pattern yet?

Rud Istvan
October 25, 2021 10:54 am

US Forest Service has done the same with forest fires. Disappeared everything before 1960. Once might be incompetence, but not twice. It is a concerted Biden plan to rewrite history. Perfect example of Orwell’s 1984 dictum. Biden controls the present, so controls the past (erasing it), so controls the future narrative.

1984 was supposed to be a warning, not a user manual.
Big Brother=Big Guy.

SxyxS
Reply to  Rud Istvan
October 25, 2021 11:38 am

1984 was not a user manual but an exposure of strategy.
George Orwells life did not end for no reason after the book was released.
Similar things happened to the directors of 120 days of Sodom and Eyes Wide Shot.

Tim Gorman
October 25, 2021 10:56 am

Attached is a graph from agacis.org for the year 2016 (supposedly a very hot year) from the Forbes AFB site (a UHI island) at Topeka, KS.

It confirms what is said above. 2016 only set 8 Tmax records over the entire year. The record starts in 1949. A significant portion of the record Tmax temps were set in the 1953-54 timeframe. The rest scattered throughout the time interval. This is consistent with the graph panels above showing the 50’s as a warm period

The frequency of intense heat waves (4-day 1-in-5-year events) has generally increased since the 1960s in most regions except the Midwest and the Great Plains”

That’s consistent with my graph.

I would only note that it looks like there was only one day in 2016 where the temp reached 100F or more. All other temps were below 100F. Not very good evidence for a warming environment when lots of Tmax records have been over 100F from June through Sept. Even this year there was only one day over 100F back in June. I can only find one period where temperatures were over 90F for 5 days or more.

The big question is why is the Midwest and the Great Plains seeing lower maximum temps than the rest of the continental US? Greater cloud cover? Increased plant growth (and why would this be happening)? Changes in wind patterns? Changes in frontal boundary movements?

agacis_year_2016.png
SxyxS
Reply to  Tim Gorman
October 25, 2021 11:42 am

Increased plant growth would be happening as result of more co2.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tim Gorman
October 25, 2021 12:06 pm

“The big question is why is the Midwest and the Great Plains seeing lower maximum temps than the rest of the continental US? Greater cloud cover?”

The central U.S. is getting more rain lately. It’s been raining frequently all summer here in Oklahoma. That’s not the norm for here. Usually it is hot and dry. This year it was hot (heat index) and wet.

October 25, 2021 11:19 am

NOAA continues to reinvent history with its ongoing fabrication of USHCN data.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  John Shewchuk
October 25, 2021 12:07 pm

This is called lying.

October 25, 2021 11:20 am

Does anyone realize the “dust bowl” was about drought, that is low humidity levels? Vapor down, temperatures.. up! How comes if vapor was such a strong GHG? I am afraid people have not yet realized the obvious, which is vapor does cool the planet.

Enjoy..

https://greenhousedefect.com/basic-greenhouse-defects/the-cloud-mess-part-3-data-data-data

meab
Reply to  E. Schaffer
October 25, 2021 4:43 pm

Don’t get me wrong as I’m the first to say that the “Climate Crisis” is a scam, but it’s well known that desert temperatures (low humidity) can get very hot during summer days (Phoenix can get to 120F) but they also cool off rapidly at night (down ~40 deg F from daytime highs). Humid climates don’t get nearly as hot during summer days (New Orleans gets to mid 90s) but they cool off much slower at night (down only ~15 degrees from daytime highs). The humid climate may actually have an average temperature, day and night, which is roughly similar to drier climates but almost always has significantly fewer extreme temperatures. This is a most obvious example of the greenhouse effect of water vapor that has been known forever. It is also visible in seasonal averages where most of the slight warming that has taken place since 1980 has been in winter and overnight temperatures. Note that this is not evidence that vapor cools the planet as the amount of energy needed to vaporize water is exactly returned when it rains. However, Climate Alarmists don’t want you to know that GHG’s mostly just dampen temperature extremes.They’re always whining about the global average temperature going up (in truth only slightly), but the average doesn’t matter very much at all.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  meab
October 25, 2021 7:20 pm

Note that this is not evidence that vapor cools the planet as the amount of energy needed to vaporize water is exactly returned when it rains.

Yeahbut…

The fact is that heat energy is absorbed on evaporation of water on the ground level, and released at the very high level where it condenses again. That cools us down here, and ultimately allows the energy to be radiated more quickly.

Convection trumps radiation every time.

Reply to  meab
October 26, 2021 7:43 am

“Note that this is not evidence that vapor cools the planet as the amount of energy needed to vaporize water is exactly returned when it rains”

If that was so, vapor would have no effect on the lapse rate. Which it does. It is true however there is a phenomenon I call “rain chill”, which is statistically significant. I mean if we look the cloud/temperature relation, we see clouds are warming, with the artefact of “rain chill” towards intense cloudiness. For example Hanover, Germany 1950-2019:

comment image

“it’s well known that desert temperatures (low humidity) can get very hot during summer days (Phoenix can get to 120F) but they also cool off rapidly at night”

That is not a “known”, but a “belief”, and it is wrong. Actually an urban myth. Most non-maritime climates shows min/max spreads of up to 20K with clear skies. Except for the abundance of clouds, there is really is nothing specific with desert climates when it comes to air temperatures.

What is different are soil temperatures. Sand has low thermal conductivity and thus gets very hot in the sun (up to 60, even 70°C), and equally cold in the night. But again, that is soil, not air temperature.

If may be confusing for people believing in the orthodoxy, but in reality clouds ware warming and vapor is cooling.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  E. Schaffer
October 26, 2021 9:12 am

Mormon Flats near Phoenix shows lots of days with 20K or higher swings in summer temps. Locations like Burlington, IA, show only swings of 12K during the summer. That is quite a difference in min/max swings.

Reply to  Tim Gorman
October 26, 2021 9:58 am

You have any data?

Tim Gorman
Reply to  E. Schaffer
October 26, 2021 10:41 am

here is iowa

agacis_burlington_ia_2021.png
Tim Gorman
Reply to  E. Schaffer
October 26, 2021 10:44 am

here is mormon flats

agacis_mormon_flats_2021.png
Tim Gorman
Reply to  E. Schaffer
October 26, 2021 10:46 am

fishooks! I got the same graph both times.

Try this one.

agacis_iowa_2021.png
Reply to  Tim Gorman
October 26, 2021 12:47 pm

Thx a lot. With Arizona it is up to ~35°F, well in line with my “prediction”. And of course there are mostly clear skies.

Iowa seems indeed a bit restricted, even with clear skies. I still wonder why that is. Did you take it from here..?

https://agacis.rcc-acis.org/

Tim Gorman
Reply to  E. Schaffer
October 26, 2021 1:06 pm

Yep.

I suspect it has a s much to do with humidity as clouds. Clouds are just visible humidity, just like when you have ground fog. You can have higher humidity in IA without there being a large amount of cloud cover.

In both cases however, it seems to be *minimum* temps that are affected most. Which, of course, raises the mid-range temp. It’s why the GAT, which is really nothing more than a conglomeration of mid-range temps, is so meaningless. The GAT tells you nothing about what is actually happening. The climate scientists and politicians just choose to believe thee GAT going up means max temps are going up – it’s a useful meme for scaring the people and gaining money/power!

Last edited 1 month ago by Tim Gorman
Reply to  Tim Gorman
October 26, 2021 1:21 pm

Well again, it is not due to humidity. Things do not work like people believe. I have done a lot of analysis on the subject and I know where the mistakes are, and what the data say for real.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  E. Schaffer
October 26, 2021 1:41 pm

Enthalpy (heat content) depends on pressure, temperature, and absolute humidity. Humidity does have an impact.

At night there are three objects in the thermodynamic system to be considered: earth, atmosphere, and space regardless if you are in Phoenix, AZ or in Burlington, IA. The atmosphere impacts any thermodynamic flow between the earth and space. Since humidity is an attribute of the atmosphere, it has *some* impact on the heat flow.

Since the temperature drop at night is larger in Phoenix than in Burlington to what exactly do you attribute the difference to?

2hotel9
October 25, 2021 12:05 pm

Once again, with feeling, when lies are all they have they simply screech them louder.

Tom Abbott
October 25, 2021 12:13 pm

What would be interesting is to have a comparison of the configuration of the high pressure systems and the low pressure systems during the decade of the 1930’s, over the U.S., and compare them with subsequent decades.

My guess is persistent high-pressure systems were more persistent during the 1930’s, than subsequently, which caused the area underneath them (half the United States) to heat up and eventually dry out, and it went on year after year during the 1930’s.

We haven’t seen anything like this since that time.

Duane
October 25, 2021 12:31 pm

This is the same old, same old trick of the propagandist, otherwise known as “cherry picking”.

Just pick a set of dates that is convenient to your propaganda, and ignore everything else, or downplay it if mentioned at all.

The warmunists do this routinely, whether it is picking “heat extremes” that begin a couple of decades after the highest of the last century or more … or if it is picking 1850 as a convenient starting date for “global warming”, given that that year represents the end of the “Little Ice Age” … or picking 1979 as the starting date for Arctic sea ice, given that that was the last year of a 30 year cooling period.

The media, of course, buy it because it reinforces the narrative of a climate in crisis … which of course not only satisfies their naturally pro-DemoCommie leanings but is also great for selling mouse click and ratings points – because if “it” can be described as a crisis, it sells eyeballs.

But as much as they huff and puff and try to blow the house down, virtually all opinion polls even today show global warming or climate change as like the 20th most significant problem real humans have to deal with.

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  Duane
October 25, 2021 4:35 pm

20th out of 20.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Duane
October 26, 2021 12:07 pm

And is only ON the list because the “surveyors” PUT IT ON the list. Ask for people’s own “fill in” answers and “climate change” doesn’t even make the list of most.

MarkW
October 25, 2021 12:59 pm

If at first you don’t succeed, make your lies bigger and bolder.

Climate Science in a nutshell.

Ron Long
October 25, 2021 1:24 pm

Washington state Governor Inslee, who passed and signed an “Environmental Justice” bill and a carbon offset bill, just announced, in a TV interview, that he is going to push to advance a “Climate Justice” bill. Sounds like they’re coming for us.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Ron Long
October 25, 2021 7:29 pm

I too want justice for the Climate! That poor vilified CO2 has never had a proper trial. It’s accused of everything, and summarily convicted without any evidence.

We need CO2 justice, now!

Climate believer
October 25, 2021 1:42 pm

Climate Alarmist Deception Distorting Long Established U.S. Heat Wave Data EVERYTHING

4 Eyes
October 25, 2021 2:33 pm

Thank you for this. Let’s hope that at least one inquisitive journo who values statistics from the MSM latches on to this.

TonyG
Reply to  4 Eyes
October 26, 2021 10:30 am

If there were such an “inquisitive journo” they would be an “unemployed journo”

Anon
October 25, 2021 3:59 pm

What do I do with my t-shirt?

I SURVIVED THE DUST BOWL OF 2021 – HOTTEST YEAR EVER !!!

I SURVIVED COVID19 – WORST PLAGUE SINCE BLACK DEATH !!!

I SURVIVED JAN 6th – WORST ATTACK SINCE CIVIL WAR !!!

I felt so resilient surviving all of that, exceeding anything my grand parents ever did and now this article comes along. 🙁 🙁 🙁

Joe Gordon
October 25, 2021 4:22 pm

Next week: the NEA bans The Grapes of Wrath from libraries and classrooms for presenting a “misleading” representation of the climate before algoremageddon began.

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  Joe Gordon
October 25, 2021 4:36 pm

Please don’t give them ideas.

Geoff Sherrington
October 25, 2021 5:14 pm

Thank you, Larry, for these important remarks about deception in presentation of USA numbers.
Australia is one of the few other countries with a lengthy national collection of historical temperature data. The official line, repeated over and over, is that heatwaves are becoming longer, hotter and more frequent.
That is the lipstick. Here is the pig – that official summary is wrong.
Here is my simple study of Australian data for the 6 State capital cities since their official records began, the earliest in the 1850s. It uses both raw data and data adjusted by the ACORN-SAT version preferred when I did the study, since overcome by later versions.
State capitals were chosen for several reasons. Generally, they have among the longest historical records and hopefully, among the best kept. Second. more than 70% of Australian people live in these 6 cities, so the data are relevant to them. This is important for example in planning future hospitals to cope with heatwave health effects. Third, using my simple PC with Excel spreadsheets, it is slow work and 6 was enough stations to handle. If is logical that there will be stations elsewhere in Australia where heatwaves are becoming hotter or more frequesnt or longer, but if they are in remote places with few people then the practical implications are less relevant. Geoff S

http://www.geoffstuff.com/hw6capsjuly2021.docx

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
October 25, 2021 7:34 pm

more than 70% of Australian people live in these 6 cities

Wot about territories?

Edit: OK, you explain, and having looked at the file, it’s a huge amount of work already.

Last edited 1 month ago by Zig Zag Wanderer
Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
October 25, 2021 9:59 pm

Thanks ZZW,
Two additional comments.
There are severe problems for those who try to use historic weather data to forecast heatwaves for their region of interest. Melbourne, for example, has temperature records back to the 1850s but this has little to no use for forecasting future heat waves, because for a few days they typically blow in from the hot centre of Australia, 1000 miles away.
Second point, there needs to be a lot more effort from concerned citizen scientists and just plain thinking people. You need calculations more than just clever, pleasant prose. Sceptics all over the world should be doing these easy Excel calculations like I have done. Takes an hour or two to run a study of (say) the dates of the Top 40 of the 3-day heatwaves for your home town.
Heatwave horrors are one of the few remaining bogeymen left for activists to fib about. The real picture is easy to calculate and deals a knockout blow every time that heatwaves are being fibbed about.
Thank you for reading my suggestions. Geoff S

John McGoo PhD
October 26, 2021 2:16 am

There will be a day of reckoning. Time is the referee & Mother Nature will have the final word. Antarctica has recorded the coldest 6 months ever recorded since records started in 1957. An 1,100 mile fault line ERUPTING close to the Russian side of the Arctic was also found warming the Arctic circle. A La Niña will be off the North America coast this year climaxing around January 1. Climate Alarmist are in for VERY HARD TIMES IN THE NEAR FUTURE. Let’s see how they spin all of this and keep a straight face? I can not believe they have been able to get away with this HOAX FOR THIS LONG!

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Ben Vorlich
October 26, 2021 3:31 am

First, the data is derived from minimum, not maximum, temperatures averaged across 50 American cities.

Surely just an artefact of UHI, wouldn’t an increase in minimum temperatures be expected as a result of several degrees (as per UK Met Office forecasts) during heatand cold waves when there is little wind to cool urban areas?

Anthony Banton
October 26, 2021 4:02 am

The “Dustbowl” 1930’s era in the US had known causes.
IE: prolonged La Niñas and  destructive agricultural practises, that caused feedbacks ….

https://www.history.com/topics/great-depression/dust-bowl

That there was, does not negate modern warming.
And nor is NOAA/EPA/NCA or whoever, “hiding” the heat of the 1930’s in that particular region.
The US does not comprise the “G” in AGW.
Nor cancel the fact that there are more heat records now than then (and “hot” lows are records just the same).

Because surface heat at a max is convected aloft, then the GMST rise comes primarily from the rise of nocturnal minima over land, as can be seen on the article’s graph that shows “hot lows”.
And so merely concentrating on maxima misses the full story – as the NASA graphs show.
For those with A/C, overnight lows do not matter but for those without the difficulty sleeping increases heat stress.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2664008/

ABSTRACT
The “Dust Bowl” drought of the 1930s was highly unusual for North America, deviating from the typical pattern forced by “La Nina” with the maximum drying in the central and northern Plains, warm temperature anomalies across almost the entire continent, and widespread dust storms. General circulation models (GCMs), forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the 1930s, produce a drought, but one that is centered in southwestern North America and without the warming centered in the middle of the continent. Here, we show that the inclusion of forcing from human land degradation during the period, in addition to the anomalous SSTs, is necessary to reproduce the anomalous features of the Dust Bowl drought. The degradation over the Great Plains is represented in the GCM as a reduction in vegetation cover and the addition of a soil dust aerosol source, both consequences of crop failure. As a result of land surface feedbacks, the simulation of the drought is much improved when the new dust aerosol and vegetation boundary conditions are included. Vegetation reductions explain the high temperature anomaly over the northern U.S., and the dust aerosols intensify the drought and move it northward of the purely ocean-forced drought pattern. When both factors are included in the model simulations, the precipitation and temperature anomalies are of similar magnitude and in a similar location compared with the observations. Human-induced land degradation is likely to have not only contributed to the dust storms of the 1930s but also amplified the drought, and these together turned a modest SST-forced drought into one of the worst environmental disasters the U.S. has experienced.” 

The following show 1934 stands out markedly on the global map ….

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Compared with 2020 …..

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That period in the US mid-west was even extreme in comparison with the most recent 30 year period (1991 -2020).

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In short, NV happens, alongside the overlying AGW warming – the world knows that the mid-west of the US had a prolonged heatwave in the 1930’s, that was unique unto itself and had natural climate variation (tropical Pacific SSTs) as a prime cause, modified and exacerbated by damaging ( see history link) farming practises.

It is entirely appropriate that NASA highlight the fact that the 1930’s was a “black swan” anomaly event by showing that modern warming (including “hot” lows) is occurring, though this place will forever use that period to deny current warming.
The “It happened before – so it’s not carbon dioxide” types.
No, it happened in a part of a country that comprises less than 2% on the Earth’s surface and for reasons we know of.
Current warming is happening globally, also for reasons we know of.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Anthony Banton
October 26, 2021 5:19 am

“General circulation models (GCMs), forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the 1930s, produce a drought, but one that is centered in southwestern North America and without the warming centered in the middle of the continent. Here, we show that the inclusion of forcing from human land degradation during the period, in addition to the anomalous SSTs, is necessary to reproduce the anomalous features of the Dust Bowl drought.”

So you are getting this from a computer model, implying that without human land degradation, there would have been no decades-long drought.

I would contend that a persistent high-pressure system hovering over the central U.S. for a sufficient period of time, would cause the drought all by itself.

And “anomalous SSTs”. That’s funny. I think maybe they are assuming too much.

Last edited 1 month ago by Tom Abbott
Tim Gorman
Reply to  Tom Abbott
October 26, 2021 7:22 am

From Banton’s “Abstract”: “As a result of land surface feedbacks, the simulation of the drought is much improved when the new dust aerosol and vegetation boundary conditions are included. The degradation over the Great Plains is represented in the GCM as a reduction in vegetation cover and the addition of a soil dust aerosol source, both consequences of crop failure. “

The “DUST” bowl didn’t occur because of crop failure. It occurred because of farmers ripping out windbreaks in order to expand land area used for crops. With no wind breaks the wind was allowed unobstructed access to the topsoil and picked it up and carried for hundreds of miles. The drought didn’t cause the wind nor did it cause the loss of windbreaks.

The only direct land degradation that happened due to human action was the removal of windbreaks. If those had been left in place every thousand yards or so there wouldn’t have been nearly as much top soil loss – which was the real land degradation.

Once again the “models” have proven to be useless, primarily because those designing the models did so in such a fashion as to get the answer they want – and to HE** with reality.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Anthony Banton
October 26, 2021 5:26 am

Btw, Anthony, none of those NASA links are working. They say “not found”.

Garboard
Reply to  Anthony Banton
October 26, 2021 7:07 am

13 all time state high temperature records were set in 1936 (23 in the thirties ) that still stand today . NOAA claims ‘21 was the hottest US summer ever tho no state heat records were broken . NOAA knows the press will run with the most patently false claims . NOAA is a joke . …soil depletion in the dust bowl was limited to parts of a handful of states : the drought and heat were nationwide and not primarily downwind of the dust bowl states . Just another weak attempt at obfuscation

Tim Gorman
Reply to  Garboard
October 26, 2021 8:52 am

Attached is a graph of temps from a site in Burlington, IA. It only goes back to 1964 so it doesn’t pick up the 20’s or 30’s. Still, most max temp records since ’64-on were set in the 60’s and 80’s, not in 2021. Late June through mid-Sept have had lots of days with temps over 100F. But not a single day in 2021 has reached that level. Only two days so far in 2021 have set a record max. In looking at the graph, it’s pretty obvious that the MINIMUM temps are what have seen a change. Big gap between 2021 minimums and the record minimums.

This is the problem with using averages. They hide the actual data. Anomalies make it even worse. The average for 2021 may be going up but is it going up because max temps are going up or because min temps are going up?

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Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tim Gorman
October 27, 2021 5:35 am

“Late June through mid-Sept have had lots of days with temps over 100F. But not a single day in 2021 has reached that level.”

That’s the same situation in Oklahoma. We didn’t have very many days over 100F this year, and I think this applies all across the country.

In the past, Oklahoma has experienced *weeks* of constant temperatures very much higher than 100F. Living today is like a walk in the park compared to the recent past. They would have to put Griff on oxygen if we were experiencing the kind of heat we experienced in the recent past in my lifetime.

Richard S Courtney
Reply to  Anthony Banton
October 27, 2021 5:15 am

Anthony Banton,

You say,
The US does not comprise the “G” in AGW.
Nor cancel the fact that there are more heat records now than then (and “hot” lows are records just the same).”

OK, in that case no part of the globe comprises the “G” in AGW.
Some parts of the globe are observed to have warmed and others to have cooled. It is hard to understand how those observations can be considered to be Global Warming.

Perhaps the “A” in AGW is instructive.
If Anthropogenic Global Warming is happening then the lack of observable temperature rise of all the globe may be because in some places (e.g. The US) natural effects are having a greater cooling effect than the warming effect of AGW. However, if that possibility is true then measurements indicate the AGW is insignificant because predicted AGW is for most warming in polar regions but this year Antarctica is experiencing its coldest temperatures on record.

“More heat records” may or may not be important but record cold temperatures certainly are instructive when they are happening where AGW is supposed to be causing most warming.

Richard

October 26, 2021 8:21 am

What do all the people in this thread and global academia of all countries have in common when it comes to temperature? We measure temperature, calculate for it as a critical consideration of all sciences but they are all blind.

I have a 43 year background specific to temperature except temperature for us starts at Absolute Zero(-496 deg. F, -273 deg. C). Thermal Radiation is the natural frequencies and vibrations of all matter above Absolute Zero.

My teams background is unparalleled in consulting for all industries, building envelope, energy use and Urban Heat Islands(extreme heat generators) I led a team that imaged buildings in 7 province and 26 states specific to solar radiation impact on absorbent exterior finishes.

Hot excited energy always transfers to cold and imaging buildings as hot as 94 deg. C(100 is boiling) Buildings are designed and built with critically important science of Regional Climatic Data. The code provides temperature extremes seasonally with a warning to watch out for solar radiation. Here is what it looks like in time-lapsed infrared videos from the exterior of the building and inside. Ideally we would expect to see no changes if the construction was done properly. Note: this is how I was introduced to Watts when they showed a weather station in an urban environment.

This imaging is accurate and when challenged by forestry, we were within 1/10th of a degree imaging stream temperature from a helicopter The Department of Fisheries and Oceans used our pilot study as their standard because we were the only consulting group that had achieved that.

Have you seen pictures of white washed buildings Europe or elsewhere? They don’t use AC as the buildings reflect solar radiation. AC called air conditioning is like calling Oxy medicine. Air conditioning is in fact refrigeration wasting 1000s of watts per hour per AC unit. People cook in their homes as the building framing has heated which keeps the building hot all night.
The first video is from outside the building and the inside one is a time lapsed. https://youtu.be/EA3py3us5VM

Here is work we did that initiated one of the largest evacuations in Canadian history August 21, 2003 when a forest fire interfaced with Kelowna, BC. The Public Fire Inquiry edited these images out of the inquiry due to political embarrassment. California and all are fighting their fires blind when thermal gradients can be seen in front of the fire.

As an addition to this, I am in government and utilities specific to microwaving the atmosphere for ease of communication. That is a wireless electrical circuit encapsulating the planet we all share. Microwaves heat and they are heating the atmosphere contributing to climate hell globally. The entire science used to substantiate safety of wireless is a plastic head called a Sam Phantom Model.

Is COP26 going to include microwaving the atmosphere billions and 100s of billions of times per second as an EMF emission superheating the atmosphere?

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WBrowning
October 27, 2021 6:08 am

Somebody’s been following Tony Heller, he publishes these charts and data pretty much daily, with historical newspaper accounts to back them up.

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