$5 trillion in 2021 global debt/equity raised (so far), “divest fossil fuels” in full swing, the world running short of natural gas/coal, and winter is coming

Reposted from Public Energy Number One

Posted by Terry Etam on October 3, 2021

As an independent energy voice, I have no corporate editors or lawyers or hand-tailored silver haired senior management muting commentary. It is often fun, being able to say what many are thinking in a direct and unfiltered way. 

And yet, even with that freedom, I am at a loss to describe the mayhem going on in the energy world. It’s not that I’m afraid of stepping on toes, it’s just that the macro scene is so ludicrous that it defies description or common sense. And the world’s governors and media are terrified to say so, because they are now held hostage by the climate cartel.

Think I’m nuts? Hear me out. It won’t take long. 

At present, Europe, China and India are in a mad scramble to secure hydrocarbon supplies before winter. Natural gas and coal prices are at record highs, and oil is at a 3 year high. Spot LNG cargoes are subject to bidding wars. More than half of India’s coal fired power plants have less than 3 days’ supply, when their government recommends having at least two weeks. 

And winter is looming. The problem could be catastrophic.

At the same time, observe what is happening in capital/debt markets. For purpose of this discussion, two points are of note. First is that the ‘divest fossil fuels’ movement is remaining strong. Institutions around the world proudly jump on the bandwagon; fund managers race to set up green funds and turn their backs on anything to do with hydrocarbons. Pipeline projects are being shelved because builders simply don’t want to face the headache (see Penn East gas pipeline for an example).

At the very same time, according to an article in the Financial Times, companies have tapped debt and equity markets with a vengeance in 2021. Global share shales topped $1 trillion, and almost $4 trillion of bonds have been issued. Those tackling equity markets include big retailers, EV manufacturers, banks, telecom companies, etc. – a veritable who’s who of industrial giants.

Yet the world is running short of the very fuels they all require to function. Global supply chains are in tatters, and will get much worse very soon, if hydrocarbon prices continue to rise. 

In the bigger picture, it adds up to this – the very fuel the world is short of, that it is desperate to acquire, that it requires for survival within months – producers cannot access capital markets, while all the users of that fuel tap debt and equity markets to fuel further growth, which will require more hydrocarbons. 

Global governments are standing by, pretending there is minimal “transitory” inflation, pretending that the trillions going into green energy are doing anything at all, and sweating profusely at the thought of this all unravelling. Central banks have no clue what they are doing, as evidenced by their openly silly talk about being ahead of the inflation problem.

Within a few months, the “divest fossil fuels” campaign is going to look like the dumbest movement in history. 

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Chris Hanley
October 18, 2021 2:09 pm

Within a few months, the “divest fossil fuels” campaign is going to look like the dumbest movement in history.

Could it be called a renewable energy ‘tipping point’?

Last edited 1 month ago by Chris Hanley
Allan MacRae
Reply to  Chris Hanley
October 18, 2021 3:16 pm

Global cooling is here – told you so 19 years ago.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/12/arctic-blast-has-arrived-in-the-eastern-usnumerous-record-low-temperatures-by-early-wednesday/#comment-2845511
(excerpt)
Well, there it is – the perfect Trifecta – my work here is done.

BEIJING SUFFERS LOWEST OCTOBER TEMPERATURE IN HALF A CENTURY AS CITY FREEZES 20-DAYS EARLIER THAN NORMAL, + RARE SPRING BLIZZARDS BATTER ARGENTINA
October 18, 2021 Cap Allon
A fierce cold wave has plunged temperatures across China to unprecedented levels for the month of October, increasing the heating demand on an already stretched energy sector.

RickWill
Reply to  Allan MacRae
October 18, 2021 3:49 pm

The Chinese FGOALS model does not contemplate warming – global warming is inconsistent with the CCP doctrine. In fact Global Warming is more Euro-centric with their MIROC model but that may change by the end of this boreal winter.

Note how MIROC already has a lot more Global Warming dialled up than the FGOALS model.

CMIP6_Compare.png
Allan MacRae
Reply to  RickWill
October 19, 2021 7:11 am

Thank you Rick.
Excerpt from my current draft paper:
“Severe flooding in China in 2019, 2020 and 2021 has destroyed crops and caused major concerns about food supply.”
from
“SCIENTIFIC COMPETENCE – THE ABILITY TO CORRECTLY PREDICT”

A few analysts (not many) say this Chinese food crisis is the root cause of the Covid-19 release – that the virus did not jump – it was pushed. Dark thoughts…

John V. Wright
Reply to  Allan MacRae
October 18, 2021 6:34 pm

I was with you then Allan and I’m with you now. Antarctic cooling well under way and has been for 40 years according to Die Kalte research.

Alan the Brit
Reply to  Allan MacRae
October 19, 2021 12:08 am

I was in Hong Kong back in 2008 in January, attending my Institution’s centenary international meeting. When not attending every day, the sessions were staggered for every other day, I’d watch the tv in the hotel room mainly the news channel. They were covering the worst winter in southern China for 50 years, by the end of the week it had been bumped up to the worst in 100 years, a year before the 2009 Copenhagen climate booze fest!!! Mother Nature is a most discourteous lady by refusing to comply with puter predictions ranging a century ahead with disaster & doom amok!!!

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Alan the Brit
October 19, 2021 5:48 am

Mother Nature is now competing with Lady Luck for the title of Most Fickle Companion.

ATheoK
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
October 19, 2021 2:26 pm

Mother Nature isn’t fickle at all.

Lady Luck is fickle in why she bestows her favors.

Mother Nature is the Lady of an environment where the finest and best survive. All others become food for worms or worse.

While Lady Luck may be fickle when allowing something further life and continuance, Mother Nature’s thinking, “Next time, you are mine”.

Allan MacRae
Reply to  Alan the Brit
October 19, 2021 8:56 am

Excerpt from my draft paper:
“SCIENTIFIC COMPETENCE – THE ABILITY TO CORRECTLY PREDICT”

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0273117721002465
[excerpt]
In addition, our ML model forecasts a new phase of extended solar minima that began prior to Sunspot Cycle 24 (ca. 2008–2019) and will persist until Sunspot Cycle 27 (ca. 2050 or so). 

Drs. Herrera, Soon and Legates in 2021 used a novel analysis and reached a similar conclusion, for cooling from ~2008 to ~2050. I published that there was a period of global cooling that started in ~2008 at the end of Solar Cycle 23, and this cooling ended circa 2013.

Peta of Newark
Reply to  Allan MacRae
October 19, 2021 3:14 am

Yes Allan’
Yet me you anyone will be called ‘crazy denier’ for suggesting, telling actually, that deserts are = Cold Places

2 examples:
1/ There was much chatter round here recently about the Holocene Optimum, a warm period of 6 or 7 thousand years ago
Wasn’t it strange that it came to an end about the same time as The Sahara Desert was created – and further reinforced by the destruction of the Fertile Crescent.
Isn’t it odd that that desert now extends all the way from Dakar to Beijing and that slap bang in the centre is Syria = where sheep originated

How exactly do sheep fit into Natural Vagations let alone Mankowitch Cycles. How does The Sun affect sheep and goats – more or less hungry& destructive?

2/ Contemporary Times and my collection of Wunderground Stations
Why is Western England cooling when it faces and has prevailing winds coming of a supposedly warming ocean?
While at the same time Eastern England is getting warmer/hotter – are ever increasing crop yeilds much to do with Natural Variation or a sign of increasing desertification?

Enquiring Minds really do want some answers here
Real Answers, not computer generated self-pleasurement.

Last edited 1 month ago by Peta of Newark
ATheoK
Reply to  Peta of Newark
October 19, 2021 2:40 pm

slap bang in the centre is Syria = where sheep originated”

Utterly meaningless.
Many animals originated in the Americas and sub-populations migrated to Euro-Asia.
Quite a few of those family lines died out in the Americas. Just as other animal lines originated in Euro-Asia and sub-populations migrated to the Americas.

Sheep are currently endemic to North America just as they are to Euro-Asia. They may have originated in the Middle East, but their ancestors migrated to the Americas and survive to this day.

As you point out, the latitude where Sahara is located is a desert latitude right now. When the ice age returns, the weather patterns that allowed the Sahara to green lushly may return as weather patterns shift.

Steve Case
Reply to  Chris Hanley
October 18, 2021 5:14 pm

Could it be called a renewable energy ‘tipping point’?
___________________________________________
Unfortunately the tipping point was passed some time ago, and it is this: “
Climate Change” has achieved “Too Big To Fail” status.

John
Reply to  Chris Hanley
October 18, 2021 6:20 pm

I think you meant the “Tripping Point” where they fall flat on there face and come up bloody and crying

LdB
Reply to  Chris Hanley
October 18, 2021 6:35 pm

Looking stupid is nothing new for the financial sector you only have to go back to 2007-2008 GFC caused by the housing bubble. The sector easily gets fooled into believing complete lunacy and will always have massive corrections when reality bites.

Alan the Brit
Reply to  LdB
October 19, 2021 12:12 am

I recall Lehman Brothers commissioned two “climate” reports in quick succession telling us what the climate would do in the next one hundred years, trouble was, they hadn’t commissioned a report to tell them what their business would do in 12 months time, perhaps they had their priorities wrong!!!

MarkW
Reply to  LdB
October 19, 2021 7:44 am

You have to remember that the law required banks to give loans to people who didn’t have the ability to pay back those loans.

Reply to  Chris Hanley
October 18, 2021 10:31 pm

About time, if it is…

Carbon Bigfoot
Reply to  Chris Hanley
October 19, 2021 12:19 pm

The five Trillion is Monopoly Money because the Gold-Back Quantum Financial System is now in place which will the only currency when Nasara/Gesara is implemented—very soon.

ResourceGuy
October 18, 2021 2:18 pm
SxyxS
Reply to  ResourceGuy
October 18, 2021 2:36 pm

Xi has already his COPsta….Policestate,
he doesn’t need to go to such meetings nor does he need to hide his tactics behind
climate actions.
This shitshow is only necessary for those countries where the illusion of democracy is still strong and the transfer hasn’t been officially completed.

Last edited 1 month ago by SxyxS
Streetcred
Reply to  ResourceGuy
October 18, 2021 4:33 pm

He’s causing so much anti-China around the world that he may be deposed whilst he is away … just a thought.

Disputin
Reply to  Streetcred
October 19, 2021 2:19 am

Yes, my thoughts exactly.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Streetcred
October 19, 2021 5:52 am

True, but not because of any poor opinions the “white devils” may hold regarding China. It’s all about the internal struggle for power, and holding on. I still can’t believe that Xi has let himself get into this position. There are any number of inventive ways he could lift the emission targets and save face, I’m sure.

ATheoK
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
October 19, 2021 2:49 pm

Xi can blame others and execute them or simply, as he has done with others, strip them of money and holdings.

It is also likely that the advisors, who convinced Xi he was doing a good thing, are already replaced.

October 18, 2021 2:22 pm

Voltaire said, “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” Many were led to believe witches caused the Little Ice Age, and they kept killing witches until they figured out the theory was wrong. It only took them 200 years and 50,000 dead witches to figure it out.

RickWill
Reply to  John Shewchuk
October 18, 2021 3:42 pm

It only took them 200 years and 50,000 dead witches to figure it out.

Do you have proof it has been figured out? It appears the whole exercise has been rebranded and witches replaced with CO2 now responsible for anything that could be classed as “bad” weather. The news media make daily claims that some weather related loss was caused by CO2 – be it flood, fire of famine; even plague. You name it, CO2 claims it. CO2 is orders of magnitude more powerful than a handful of witches.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  RickWill
October 18, 2021 3:53 pm

Amazing stuff.
I want some more please.

Reply to  RickWill
October 18, 2021 4:09 pm

The “Left” has their proof that CO2 is evil, it’s evident from the “altered” USHCN data. All you have to do is change the data to fit the theory.

USHCN.jpg
Rory Forbes
Reply to  RickWill
October 18, 2021 9:39 pm

Some local farmers have indisputably linked “climate change” to huge losses in their pumpkin crops … local propaganda news networks claim.

Alan the Brit
Reply to  Rory Forbes
October 19, 2021 12:34 am

Is there a possibility of some taxpayers money in the air for compensation perhaps???

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Alan the Brit
October 19, 2021 10:18 am

They can but try. 🙂

(However, field rot is fairly common in squash when a damp Fall follows a dry Summer.)

Alan the Brit
Reply to  RickWill
October 19, 2021 12:33 am

I loved the rational & logical thought process in the whole business, they’d seize some poor woman young or old, strap her to a ducking stool, keep dunking her under the water to extract a confession from her. If she drowned she was innocent because she was clean & the water accepted her. If she survived, she would be dragged off, stood on top of a pile of sticks, tied to a central pole, then burned alive, it was a win-win situation for the authorities that ran the show back then!!! Slightly worried about voicing aloud my faith in the CO2 climate dial knob theory, some attitudes to descent never changes, this is England after all!!!

PS I watched the BBC propaganda show last night about Climategate. It didn’t disappoint at all, it was as I predicted, a total white-wash, constantly reinforcing the “emails were stolen” meme, climate deniers, big oil/fossil-fuel industry collusion etc. Honestly you couldn’t have made it up better!!! No mention of a possibility of said emails being leaked, by an insider of all things, shudder the thought, this is Cambridge after all!!! Naturally the interviewees had been schooled thoroughly & stuck rigidly to the script!!!

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Alan the Brit
October 19, 2021 6:29 am

UEA (University of East Anglia} Norwich not Cambridge

Ron Long
October 18, 2021 2:22 pm

Waiting for the ultimate Green Virtue signaling: freezing, hungry, in the dark. Go for it.

markl
October 18, 2021 2:24 pm

When you own the MSM it’s easy to keep regurgitating propaganda to bolster your narrative. The “cancel culture” and “climate change” narratives feed on each other with the goal in mind to destroy Democracy and Capitalism. Politicians, elites, captains of industry, sports and entertainment figures, and educators have been targeted to support the message as well through intimidation and shaming that threatens their livelihoods.

Alan the Brit
Reply to  markl
October 19, 2021 12:46 am

“Politicians, elites, captains of industry, sports and entertainment figures, and educators have been targeted to support the message as well”!!!

Is there a possibility of some taxpayers money in the air for their support, perhaps???

As far as I am concerned, where entertainment figures, up to & including the acting profession, (not known for their IQs), are merely grand-standing to look good in front of their fans, felling the power of influence that they can wield!!! Emma Thompson is a classic grand-stander hypocrite!!! The very word comes from the ancient Greek, “hupokrinomai”, meaning to act in theatre!!! The word hypocrisy means a simulation of virtue, or, pretence!!!

lynn
October 18, 2021 2:34 pm

If the winter turns bad in the northern hemisphere early, watch out for sheer panic as electric companies buy everything in sight for fuel. They are already doing this but keeping it somewhat hidden. There will be public announcements to cut your electricity usage or face lengthy outages, etc.
BTW, when I worked at TXU in the 1980s, we spent 60% of our revenue on fuel to be converted into electricity for our customers. If anyone tells you that fuel is not important to electric companies, they are lying to you. We had 80% to 90% of our fuel as either corporately owned (Texas coal and lignite) or secured by long term contracts, it was that important to us. We owned natural gas pipelines to natural gas fields. We owned salt dome caverns to store 10 BCF (billion cubic feet) of natural gas in. We owned four million barrels (a barrel is 42 gallons) of fuel oil and diesel spread throughout our power plants. All very important to us as we supplied 40% of the electricity in Texas.

Last edited 1 month ago by lynn
RickWill
Reply to  lynn
October 18, 2021 4:06 pm

There is no panic buying of electricity ahead of any shortage but I bet it is hard to get firewood in northern latitudes. Probably not easy to get portable generators right now either. You still need to put fuel in them.
https://www.review10best.com/uk/top10/portable-generator.html
The 10 best – timely and probably due to rising demand!

The entire developed world is following South Africa and Lebanon into energy poverty through poorly directed investment.

It appears that eliminating fossil fuel is the easiest way to reduce CO2. We may all see if the old saying “necessity is the mother of invention” proves true.

Streetcred
Reply to  RickWill
October 18, 2021 4:36 pm

I think that in South Africa the “investments” weren’t so much “poorly directed” as much as STOLEN by that governments ministers and cadres.

HotScot
Reply to  lynn
October 18, 2021 4:31 pm

UK PM Boris Johnson has already mentioned a solution to keep the domestic lights on, shut down industry.

That should prove interesting…….

Stephen Skinner
Reply to  HotScot
October 19, 2021 12:34 am

Similar to the lockdowns that were to ‘save the NHS’. BJ had a very expensive education.

gringojay
Reply to  lynn
October 18, 2021 4:51 pm

Last year USA burned 436.5 million tons (“short tons”) of thermal coal. Industry predictions for the USA is in 2021 536.9 million tons of that type of coal will be burned. The country is fortunate to have extensive coal to mine.

Disputin
Reply to  gringojay
October 19, 2021 2:27 am

The country is fortunate to have extensive coal to mine.

So does Britain. Our only trouble is the “government” won’t allow it.

Kevin kilty
October 18, 2021 2:43 pm

As Schumpeter noted, it is only after the crash that an enormous amount of malinvestment looks very badly thought out.

I own a large fraction of a very nice oil prospect in Eastern Wyoming. The suppliers of capital for that project suddenly became fixated, maybe mezmerized is a better term, on ESG and have bailed on the deal. I am committed contractually for another 18 months or so, but nothing is likely to get done. Perhaps it will be even more attractive to someone 18 months from now, but hysteria can run for a long time — the dynamic of hysterias being that the true believers become even more committed to their erroneous myth when shown contrary hard data and proof.

Last edited 1 month ago by Kevin kilty
Chris Hanley
Reply to  Kevin kilty
October 18, 2021 5:00 pm

It’s all being driven by governments in the ‘old West’
As noted recently: ‘investors are short selling fossil fuels because they can make more money on taxpayer-guaranteed renewables’.

michel
Reply to  Kevin kilty
October 18, 2021 5:01 pm

“…the true believers become even more committed to their erroneous myth when shown contrary hard data and proof…”

Yes, this is very true. Read ‘When Prophecy Fails’ for a real life example. If you apply it to climate, in the next few years you’d predict fanaticism and intensity of belief will increase as the basic thesis becomes less and less plausible.

If you look at the latest antics of Insulate Britain in the UK, you can see this in action. Shut down GWPF is their latest great idea.

One of the characteristics of this phase is that the increasing amounts of contrary evidence are felt to be threatening. So attacks on the messengers, attempts to deny the evidence, violent attacks on dissidents, all increase.

You may think it ugly now. Wait until the great UK attempt to move to hydrogen, heat pumps, a wind powered grid without enough storage, and electric vehicles… wait till all that gets well under way. The rage and denial as the chickens come home to roost will be a sight to behold.

David Archibald
Reply to  Kevin kilty
October 18, 2021 5:06 pm

Please email me: david.archibabld @ westnet.com.au

Davidf
Reply to  Kevin kilty
October 18, 2021 11:29 pm

Well, that didnt work!

Last edited 1 month ago by Davidf
Serge Wright
October 18, 2021 2:49 pm

The crunch will come when oil becomes scarce as exporting countries hold on to their supplies for security. This will halt trade and then affect transport across countries without their own oil. When that occurs the shist hits the fan big time.

Anon
October 18, 2021 3:09 pm

More on this here:

Here is The Hidden $150 Trillion Agenda Behind The “Crusade” Against Climate Change


And here, the details behind the numbers, do we finally learn why the net zero lobby is so intent on pushing this green utopia – simple answer: because it provides an endless stream of taxpayer and debt-funded “investments” which in turn need a just as constant degree of debt monetization by central banks.

Drilling down on the absolutely staggering costs, at an estimated $150 trillion over 30 years, boosting funding sources to $5tn a year is equivalent to the entire US tax base, or 3x the COVID-19 stimulus this decade.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-hidden-150-trillion-agenda-behind-crusade-against-climate-change

So, what this has morphed into is a reason/justification to continue Quantitative Easing (QE), or in layman’s terms: money printing.

Last edited 1 month ago by Anon
RickWill
Reply to  Anon
October 18, 2021 4:24 pm

USA has been in the unique position of creating the global currency for half a century. USA now has USD15tr of its debt in foreign hands. Some of those hands are wondering what that paper is actually worth. It was once backed by military might and essentially the global protection racket where other countries produced stuff for the USA and those countries got US debt and US protection. When the US cannot protect Afghans against an internal menace then the ability to protect against more powerful menace comes into question. The world may be open to a new thug with bigger b lls. China is already spreading its stuff to gain favour and indebtedness of many developing countries.

The rest of the world is not going to keep taking USA debt for real stuff they produce. The privilege of creating the world currency has a use-by date that could very well be during the current Biden term.

Inflation is already occurring and will get worse as USA tries to live further beyond its means trading its debt for real stuff – currently running at almost USD200bn per quarter:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/current-account

Alan the Brit
Reply to  RickWill
October 19, 2021 12:59 am

Last I heard was that China was exporting a new product to Africa, it’s called Capitalism, only their version of it of course, however the global influence could be seriously damaging!!!

Peter Barrett
Reply to  Alan the Brit
October 19, 2021 7:28 am

Possibly more accurate to say they are exporting large scale unrepayable debt secured against vital national assets and the wealth of future generations.
Belt and braces, or something.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Anon
October 18, 2021 4:32 pm

Quantitative Easing (QE), or in layman’s terms: money printing.

Which will lead to rampant inflation if not curbed, and quickly.

Chris Hanley
October 18, 2021 3:23 pm

In the interest of balance I would like to hear from a past puffer for renewables, for instance Nick Stokes.
Hey Mr Stokes are you out there?

Richard Page
Reply to  Chris Hanley
October 18, 2021 3:43 pm

Doubt if you’ll get an answer soon. There appears to be a ‘stilling’ of trolling occurring on WUWT with many of the usual suspects keeping a very low profile. Perhaps they’re all off to the big COP party.

Rud Istvan
October 18, 2021 3:29 pm

It will take the pain of a hard cold winter to put another dent in the global warming/renewables madness. It won’t stop until people are literally dying of cold in the dark. Even then, AOC, BoJo, Dementia Joe, and Kerry will natter on.

HotScot
Reply to  Rud Istvan
October 18, 2021 4:27 pm

It’ll take more than one cold winter to do the job. If this winter is bad it’ll be explained away as just an unusually cold one. No doubt it will be proof of the mayhem of climate change, so we all need to hurry up and cut our CO2 emissions.

Only if it continues into the winter of 2022, then 2023 will eyebrows be raised by the public.

For me, the change to global temperatures was like a light switch. In the early 1970’s I was skating on Lochs across Scotland, we could see our local one, The Gadloch, from our front window. Within five years that stopped. That’s when I bought into climate change, it wasn’t until Gore’s movie was released I began asking questions because it was all to straightforward and coincidental.

What I’m wondering now is, will the light switch be flicked the other way over the coming five to ten years.

Perhaps it’s over the top, but I have bought a standby generator for the house to keep our Natural Gas central heating and essentials like a fridge and freezer going in case of blackouts. I had a foretaste of this in the 1970’s but that was local militant miners, restricting supply, there was no shortage. This time it’s global and when gas and coal become scarce, there will be cities enduring rolling blackouts at a time.

Boris is apparently seeking a deal with Putin. Good luck with that mate and get in line, the whole of Europe is joining the queue. Boris’ alternative, to keep domestic lights on? Black out industry instead. Like that’ll go down well when people are subject to three day weeks.

What Boris is very likely to do is call for more windmills to be built, at pace, over the coming years, which will just make matters worse if the light switch truly is being flicked. Nor will it be restricted to the UK of course. Most of the northern hemisphere will be in chaos, other than perhaps Russia.

The Biden regime will grit their teeth and hang out until 2024, but if bad winters persist, Trump will be hailed a prophet. And I don’t think even the Q followers predicted this when they say ‘nothing can stop what’s coming’.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Rud Istvan
October 18, 2021 4:36 pm

A few plebeian fatalities won’t stop this insanity. The only thing would possibly be severe cooling.

The problem with that is firstly that it will be hidden, to ‘save the planet’, and secondly, they’ll probably blame it on CO2 anyway. That poor sod never gets his day in court, but is mercilessly blamed for every bad thing ever.

n.n
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
October 18, 2021 4:59 pm

The Great Leap sacrificed millions during Planned Plebeian/hood, followed by millions more during Planned Parent/hood in two phases, first during one-child (State’s Choice), then selective-child (one-child, delegated). The Green Leap is following its precedent. Forward! to the past.

michel
Reply to  Rud Istvan
October 18, 2021 5:16 pm

Rud, I am afraid that the effect of a cooling spell will not be to diminish belief, on the contrary, at least in the short term, contrary evidence will actually increase fanaticism and lead to increasingly deranged attacks on anyone who draws attention to it.

This is just the way apocalyptic cults work. This shy you cannot expect to make any progress by rational argument and citing evidence.

It seems clear now that no-one outside the West is buying into it any more – neither China nor Russia seem to be even going to COP26. They are not even pretending to believe it any more.

But that too will only increase the faith and commitment of the believers.

At some point people will start to peel off gradually. ‘When Prophecy Fails’ details the process in one case. Or as another wise observer remarked, men go mad in crowds but come to their senses one at a time. But it will take a while. I do not think we are yet at the peak.

What happens at the peak is that the leaders of the cult start to get nervous. This is because they can see that the membership is way out ahead of the likely outcome. The leadership for instance is predicting that there will be a second coming and rapture in the distant future. The membership starts to proclaim its definitely going to happen next Thursday, and they contact the press, sell their houses, go up into mountains to be ready.

We are getting to this point now. You can see from Extinction Rebellion and Insulate Britain’s antics, they are in their actions and rhetoric way ahead of even the most fanatical climate scientists. But we have a ways to go before the evidence that its not going to happen is undeniable, and people start to peel off from it.

And even then, mainstream global warming will continue to be a widely held belief. It will recover credibility by becoming more moderate.

Just as the Jehovah’s Witnesses do, after their various fringe end of the world prophecies failed to materialize.

RickWill
October 18, 2021 3:35 pm

If only anyone could build fairy fart extractors using fairy farts.

I am still confident the big winner from COP26 will be nuclear power. Those nuclear power backers wanting floor space at the conference might just be granted it now if they ask really nicely.

At some point “renewable energy” is going to be widely recognised as UNSUSTAINABLE. The broad populations of the developed world have been deceived.

All those wind generators lining shorelines and hilltops across the countryside have a guaranteed output of ZERO. Think about that – ALL of them at any single point in time could be net consumers of energy. What an incredible waste of resources.

Dennis G Sandberg
Reply to  RickWill
October 18, 2021 8:30 pm

If it were only true. “Those nuclear power backers wanting floor space at the conference might just be granted it now if they ask really nicely”. You think the corrupt political IPCC would ever admit to 30 years of sunshine and breezes deception? Not this year, not ever.

Reply to  Dennis G Sandberg
October 18, 2021 10:42 pm

Who knows: They are trying though

Robert Alfred Taylor
October 18, 2021 3:43 pm

Anyone else reminded of the Stark’s “Winter is coming …”

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Robert Alfred Taylor
October 18, 2021 3:58 pm

GoT had it right. Summers last a long time but when winter comes it socks in for a long time and ki!!s a lot of people.
Sort of like transitioning back into a LIA?

I would vote for Tyrion as PM of Canada in a heartbeat. Smart and funny

Davidf
Reply to  Pat from Kerbob
October 18, 2021 11:44 pm

One could only wish for the Red Wedding at CoP26

Admin
October 18, 2021 4:57 pm

A long time ago, a major merchant bank decided to hold a series of internal town meetings. I was a contractor, not staff, but I got invited to go anyway. I learned a lot about the world, one of the meetings was hosted by their former head of subprime mortgages, he wanted to pass on what he had learned from the GFC, about the limits of financial software models. Brave man, to face everyone who blamed him for ruining their job security and try to help make things right.

The oddest thing was, junior to mid level management staff kept asking questions about when the bank would embrace renewables.

Even I asked a green question. I was already a climate skeptic, but I hadn’t checked the mistruth about the North West passage, I thought it would shortly become a viable shipping route due to global warming, so I asked when the bank would start running freighters through the passage – the answer was “I think I’ll refer that one to Al Gore”. Silly me, lesson learned. The way you tell when greens are exaggerating is when their lips move.

The point is, senior management were obviously aghast at the ignorance of the mid management and juniors, they didn’t know what to do about it.

Now those senior people have mostly retired, and the mid level managers I saw asking ignorant green questions are now the people who are running the show.

Last edited 1 month ago by Eric Worrall
jtom
October 18, 2021 6:40 pm

They can tout divestment all they want, but profit sits on the bottom line. The largest coal company in the US is Peabody Energy (BTU). I read the writing on the wall a couple of weeks ago, and bought a considerable number of shares in that company.

They reported preliminary revenue numbers this morning, reflective of the current fuel crunch. The stock went up 23.18% TODAY. A lot of “divested” funds have found their way back.

I’m looking forward to a bitterly cold winter. Wood is stockpiled for my fireplace, have some fine sippin’ bourbon, and if things get really bad, will have a lot of money to burn.

Chad W Jessup
October 18, 2021 8:56 pm

“$5 trillion in 2021 global debt/equity raised (so far), “divest fossil fuels” in full swing, the world running short of natural gas/coal, and winter is coming.” Have a nice day.

Gary Pearse
October 18, 2021 10:56 pm

A lot of commenters here see the Green ‘capitalists’ going further into mega investments in renewables and fossil fuels being further starved of capital.

No. A few things. This screwing up production of fossil fuels (FF) is actually the beginning of the end of Eurocentric Neomarxist madness. First, you need fossil fuels to mine materials, manufacture, transport and install windmills and solar panels. The prices for these fuels are going out of sight. Second, you need FF for backup power. The RE units will be more than double the cost to make (governments won’t be able to squeeze taxpayers for this) and with backup FF generators, individuals and companies wouldn’t be able to afford the power.

The FF crisis is responsible already for empty food shelves in Europe. The Pitchforks in the street factor when this cold winter hits (it’s already here in the NH!). I fear the cold and broken supply chains will result in appalling disasters, particularly for the poor, but even the normally well enough off will be in the dark and the economy and jobs will will grind to a halt.

Europe was already cutting back on subsidies for the Green power investments and the first mills and panels are now being decommissioned. There will be no appetite for replacing them after this marxist-made Little Ice Age takes it’s sad toll, even if they had the FF for doing it.

I think history will choose ~ 2017-2029 as ‘Peak’ windmills and solar panels electrical production, only unlike oil and gas it will simply drop off from the peak. Investments? Pipelines, O&G, Coal. You cant go wrong for growing your wealth.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Gary Pearse
October 18, 2021 10:59 pm

Oops 2017 to 2020 for peak

Stephen Skinner
October 19, 2021 12:37 am

The Climate Change ‘business’ is likely to rival the South Sea Bubble, Tulipomania, the Wall St Crash, the Sub Prime Mortgage crash…combined.

Last edited 1 month ago by Stephen Skinner
Philip
October 19, 2021 4:14 am

A very small collective of anti-industrial idealist were empowered by Westen democracies to destroy their own industrial success. And then, the very same idealism was used to bring most Western democracies to the brink of energy security failure. All of this failure is being touted among Western democracies as a success. They call it globalization.

This is my stop bus driver. Ding, ding, ding, ding… 😏

Ed Fox
October 19, 2021 5:03 am

Pretty much defund the police applied to fossil fuels.

ResourceGuy
October 19, 2021 5:56 am

Vote with your feet and your wallet…..to southern AZ and FL. Uh, it looks like a lot of others have done the same and the it will cost you more now. Get used to downsizing in the move, unless you’re from Europe where it will be a move up.

Olen
October 19, 2021 7:43 am

What has been done by the Democrats since Biden took office that in anyway benefits the country and it’s citizens? Weigh that against the harm being done.

c1ue
October 19, 2021 8:46 am

I don’t debate what is written above in the main article.
The question is: what will happen because of it?
Energy is core to everyday life. Will the 99% understand that their wildly inflating energy prices are due to government decisions on renewables at the cost of existing energy sources? Or understand that this did not have to be an either/or situation?
Will they then act?
Far from clear to me.

ATheoK
October 19, 2021 2:16 pm

A near incoherent article where the author throws lots of words around without any specific detail. Who what where why and when becomes sheer gruel when no one is named, actions don’t have specific participants or reasons and when is allegedly now, or just before now or maybe they meant last month or year…

The last sentence is delightful, except it also lacks detail, names, specifics, reasons, etc. etc.
Well just assume that sentence is correct, though we don’t know exactly when or why.

October 19, 2021 4:07 pm

Learn Russian or evolve fur.

Colin
October 19, 2021 4:20 pm

According to an article in Oil Price.com US coal consumption is set to jump 23% this year as utilities switch from unaffordable gas, same thing happening in Europe. With a commensurate increase in co2 emissions. All because the Green tyranny has starved investment in gas. Unintended consequence are indeed a thing! And still trying to block shovel ready oil and gas fields on our continental shelf. I’m writing from Aberdeen, the oil capital of Europe, where the economy is tanking because of the Green agenda. With skyrocketing energy prices adding insult to injury.

Robert W Turner
October 20, 2021 5:16 pm

Peabody Energy (BTU) has been heavily shorted the past two days. Their fundamentals aren’t the best after nearly going bankrupt last year, but Q4 and 2022 could be hugely profitable for them. Their market cap is still currently below their annual operating costs but I expect that to change after they report official Q3 numbers (already reported $900M in coal deliveries in Q3 with much of that being under market price due to hedges).

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