“Surprising” And “Statistically Significant” Cooling Trend Over Entire Continental Antarctica

From the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin on 17. September 2021

East Antarctica, which covers two thirds of the South Pole, has cooled a whopping 2.8°C over the past 4 decades; West Antarctica approximately 1.6°C. ..only tiny Antarctic Peninsula saw statistically insignificant warming.

German climate website Die kalte Sonne posted its 64th climate video here and examined a new paper on Antarctica by Zhu et al (2021): “An Assessment of ERA5 Reanalysis for Antarctic Near-Surface Air Temperature

The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) released its latest ERA5 reanalysis dataset in 2017 and Zhu and his researchers compared the near-surface temperature data from ERA5 and ERA-Interim with the measured data from 41 weather stations.

They found that the temperature trend from ERA5 is consistent with that from observations. The result: a cooling trend dominates East Antarctica and West Antarctica while a warming trend exists in the Antarctic Peninsula. Note that the regions of east and West Antarctica combined are vastly larger than the tiny Antarctic Peninsula.

Substantial cooling 

The results are summarized as follows (cropped from Die kalte Sonne):

The table above shows East Antarctica, which covers two thirds of the continent, saw a cooling of 0.70°C per decade over the past 40 years. In total that particular region has cooled about 2.8°C since 1980.

West Antarctica has cooled at a rate of 0.42°C per decade over the past 40 years.

Die kalte Sonne finds the results “surprising” and “statistically significant”. And though the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed moderately, Die kalte Sonne sees nothing significant happening over this comparatively small region.

This of course should be seen as  good news for the global warming alarmists who fear the South Pole might melt.

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September 17, 2021 6:06 pm

Presumably, the Antarctic ice mass is increasing ?
Not holding my breath to see this in the mainstream media or hearing it from the mouth of any politician.

Dave
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
September 17, 2021 6:34 pm

Dice Antarctica is almost always below freezing, and mass changes very little based only on sub-zero temperatures, mass depends on precipitation. Could be less precipitation with colder temperatures.

RickWill
Reply to  Dave
September 17, 2021 9:22 pm

There needs to be evaporation somewhere before there can be precipitation elsewhere.

Broadly the balance of precipitation minus evaporation is confined to the hemispheres. Tropical North Atlantic currently moving into higher evaporation cycle during boreal summers but cooler boreal winters as the precession cycle moves on from the peak sunlight in the Southern Hemisphere to peak sunlight in the Northern Hemisphere in 12,000 years.

North Atlantic has increasing evaporation for the next 12,000 years. But cooler winters means more snowfall. The current cycle of glaciation began 400 years ago. Not yet noticeable apart from maybe a little more flooding over the land masses surrounding the North Atlantic. That water will be dropping out later in the year as snowfall within this millennium.

observa
Reply to  RickWill
September 18, 2021 5:25 am

There needs to be evaporation somewhere before there can be precipitation elsewhere.

Well you can always see that in the land of droughts and flooding rains as the Darling fills the Menindee lakes to overflowing-
7NEWS Sydney – Menindee Lakes brought back to life only months after drought | Facebook

Bumper crops should be coming off the land soon in South Australia due to widespread healthy winter rainfall although farmers don’t want late rains once wheat and barley ripens.

Greg
Reply to  observa
September 18, 2021 6:59 am

Bumper crops in the beginning of spring ?!
What are they growing down there ?

Alan M
Reply to  Greg
September 20, 2021 5:04 am

Winter crops 😉 As observa stated wheat and barley plus canola over here in the west

Greg
Reply to  Dave
September 18, 2021 6:58 am

This of course should be seen as good news for the global warming alarmists who fear the South Pole might melt.

Oh no ! It can stop going wrong until we’ve all surrendered and agreed to do exactly what they tell us to do.

That’s their biggest nightmare.

RMT
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
September 19, 2021 8:39 pm

It makes better TV to see glaciers and ice masses falling into the ocean than to watch ice form over weeks, months, years.

Ron Long
September 17, 2021 6:14 pm

“…Cooling Trend Over Entire Continental Antarctica.”I hope the penguins don’t freeze, they have enough trouble avoiding polar bears.

Scissor
Reply to  Ron Long
September 17, 2021 7:18 pm

And worse, Eskimo Pie was discontinued because of its “inappropriate name.”

Tedz
Reply to  Ron Long
September 17, 2021 7:40 pm

The penguins and polar bears keep warm from runnning away from the eskimos that hunt them down there.

Farmer Ch E retired
Reply to  Ron Long
September 17, 2021 8:06 pm

Penguins should avoid polar bears as long stay in opposite hemispheres.

Mike McMillan
Reply to  Farmer Ch E retired
September 17, 2021 10:50 pm

They will.

Very few polar bears will survive a penguin swarming attack in the open ocean.

Shanghai Dan
Reply to  Farmer Ch E retired
September 18, 2021 11:10 am

But but but…

Polar bears can swim!

LdB
Reply to  Shanghai Dan
September 19, 2021 12:14 am

Yeah but the number of kamakzi penguins will take the battle 🙂

SxyxS
Reply to  Ron Long
September 18, 2021 2:15 am

No need to worry about the pinguins,my deer.
I’m pretty sure that antarctic polar bears went extinct during the ice age scare.
And the north pole penguins were genozided by Trump- that’s why the polar bear population went up.No more bullying and mobbing by german nazi penguins.

Ron Long
Reply to  Ron Long
September 18, 2021 6:04 am

I’ve thought about the implied scenario, climate refugees, like this: Global Warming Climate Refugees head south to south polar regions to escape the heat, and Antarctica Global Cooling Refugees head north to escape the cooling, and when they pass each other, they say to their friends “those guys are crazy”.

Tom Halla
September 17, 2021 6:16 pm

Oh my! Something else that does not fit the narrative.

philincalifornia
Reply to  Tom Halla
September 17, 2021 6:48 pm

The data has never fit the narrative. To counter that, It started out as voices in the head science (simple physics, it must be melting blah blah blah) and morphed to The Antarctic Peninsula is the driver of all things temperature in Antarctica. The climate liars have never had to feel any shame from this, their abject failure, as they have the cover of both the stupid and malevolent media, and even once good Journals (remember the Steig et al front cover of Nature?

In case you don’t, here it is (biggest image I could find, maybe they’e on the way to disappearing it).

http://faculty.washington.edu/steig/nature09data/cover_nature.jpg

Last edited 2 months ago by philincalifornia
Mike McMillan
Reply to  philincalifornia
September 17, 2021 11:03 pm

The Steig 2009 paper managed to smear the peninsula temps across most of the continent.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/08/rcs-dr-eric-steig-boreholes-himself-on-antarctica/

Ron Ginzler
September 17, 2021 6:28 pm

The South Pole is a point, not a continent. But good to hear that neither is melting.

Scissor
Reply to  Ron Ginzler
September 17, 2021 7:21 pm

Certainly if it were made out of bamboo, it wouldn’t melt.

SxyxS
Reply to  Ron Ginzler
September 18, 2021 2:17 am

You have a point.

September 17, 2021 6:37 pm

So Arctic Amplification only applies to the Arctic. There’s no amplification in Antarctica and the reason should be obvious. Antarctica is upside down, so the physics is all reversed.

Sweet Old Bob
Reply to  davidmhoffer
September 17, 2021 6:51 pm

😉

commieBob
Reply to  davidmhoffer
September 17, 2021 7:20 pm

As far as I can tell, polar amplification does only apply in the arctic. The antarctic is isolated from the rest of the world’s climate by strong circumpolar winds and ocean currents.

If the antarctic is getting colder then my first guess would be that the circumpolar circulation is getting stronger and making that continent more isolated. Of course there’s also the distinct possibility that I have the situation bass ackwards. 😉

Martin Cropp
Reply to  commieBob
September 17, 2021 10:21 pm

Bob
The increase in Tropical convection since 1980 has increased the circumpolar winds, which in turn cause the cooling at surface and altitude by default. This is the default outcome at this point in the 40,000 year cycle, and solar cycle etc.

Polar Amplification works in both a positive (warming) and negative (cooling) and we are seeing that currently.

The interesting part is that during any given year (more pronounced since the year 2000) the NH high latitude warming and and SH cooling (>50S) occur simultaneously. This is because both poles are controlled by the same initial atmospheric dynamic. No one has identified this previously.

Given the warmer NH ocean temperature cycles over the past 40 years, and the weakness of the Arctic to atmospheric entry, the Arctic has given the appearance of “warming” at a rate of 2 to 3 times faster than the rest of the Globe. That “warming” is fleeting and quickly overtaken by cold again.

Don’t be fooled. What is being measured in the Arctic is the result of a heat pulse originating from lower latitudes. This Arctic aberration of “Global Warming” is overstating the satellite global average temperature increase by about 0.5C compared to the thermometer period. That same “pulse” also cools the 50S to 75S latitudes, simultaneously.

No one understands what is being recorded in the 2meter temperature record, or what controlled the movement. The only thing that is debated is the accuracy of the value.

Going forward, what will be interesting is the delay in “global average” 2meter temperatures in relation to lower solar activity and ocean cycles, given the heat mass the oceans store.
Regards

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Martin Cropp
September 18, 2021 1:06 am

Sounds like you could be right. Do you have expertise in this area?

B Clarke
Reply to  commieBob
September 18, 2021 1:54 am

“The antarctic is isolated from the rest of the world’s climate by strong circumpolar winds and ocean currents.”

Yep you can see this on the radar weather graph the continent is surrounded by cyclonic masses of snow bearing clouds it looks pretty weird, its there whatever time of year you look.

Last edited 2 months ago by B Clarke
B Clarke
Reply to  B Clarke
September 18, 2021 2:37 am

Radar showing bobs circumpolar winds,currents,clouds

Screenshot_20210918-095757_Chrome.jpg
Jay
Reply to  B Clarke
September 18, 2021 6:25 am

Almost like Antarctica and/or the Antarctic Ocean is the Earth’s Heat Sink…

SxyxS
Reply to  commieBob
September 18, 2021 2:25 am

You are spot on bob.
That’s exactly what happens in all the king kong movies where the island is always surrounded by a wall of clouds and fog.
Circumpolar winds created by the farts of kong are the reason.
But who is responsible for the antarctic winds?
Considering that Tokyo is doing well for too many years i’d say Godzilla.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  davidmhoffer
September 18, 2021 1:05 am

🤣

Yooper
Reply to  davidmhoffer
September 18, 2021 4:55 am

Ha! When I was on a business trip to Australia many years ago, I couldn’t find my way around the block. My brain was programmed that the sun is to the South, not to the North….

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  davidmhoffer
September 18, 2021 6:32 am

Griff told me it’s because the hot air drops off the bottom.

Last edited 2 months ago by Andrew Wilkins
CD in Wisconsin
September 17, 2021 7:02 pm

If this posting is true, we can all be rest assured that this will be buried so the public and the politicians don’t find out about it.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  CD in Wisconsin
September 18, 2021 1:07 am

It was posted some time ago on ? Notrickszone ?

Paul Tikotin
Reply to  CD in Wisconsin
September 18, 2021 5:53 am

It has already been buried. I have already forgotten it.

Gordon A. Dressler
September 17, 2021 7:12 pm

Concluding sentence of above article:

“This of course should be seen as good news for the global warming alarmists who fear the South Pole might melt.”

Nahhh . . . this news will be totally ignored by the AGW/CAGW alarmists until they’ve had sufficient time for their “science” experts to adjust the data to show that the observed Antarctic cooling is actually caused by global warming climate change.

RickWill
September 17, 2021 7:21 pm

“Surprising” And “Statistically Significant” Cooling Trend Over Entire Continental Antarctica

Only if you do not understand Earth’s orbital mechanics.

Southern Hemisphere is already 400 years into the current 12,500 year cooling trend.

markl
Reply to  RickWill
September 17, 2021 7:44 pm

It’s the sun stupid 🙂 (not you, just the saying)

September 17, 2021 7:57 pm

No contrails, no warming..

Reply to  E. Schaffer
September 17, 2021 9:13 pm

The case for increased aircraft traffic causing warming is probably as good as, if not better than CO2….

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 18, 2021 1:08 am

Einstein disproved CO2 in his 1917 paper.

noaaprogrammer
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
September 18, 2021 4:21 pm

E≠MCO² ?

Anon
September 17, 2021 8:55 pm

“Houston, We have a Problem.”

Why Is the South Pole Warming So Quickly? It’s Complicated

The South Pole is warming at a rate nearly three times faster than the global average, scientists have discovered. And much of that warming is linked to climate cycles happening thousands of miles away in the tropics.

The findings were published yesterday in the journal Nature Climate Change.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-is-the-south-pole-warming-so-quickly-its-complicated/

So, I put a call into NASA about this and they said that the old Apollo 13 team is working on a patch/solution and they are specialists in dealing with rising carbon dioxide levels. The same team that figured out how to put a square filter into a round hole:

https://youtu.be/1cYzkyXp0jg

And preliminarily, it involves the same thermodynamics dynamics as an Ice Cream Cone. The idea came to one of the team members after watching Joe Biden eat an ice cream cone on the campaign trail, during a warm day. It is going to be called Sequential Polar Warming, where the top of the cone (Arctic) melts first; then the cold drippings from the top of the cone lower the temperature at the bottom (Antarctic) of the cone.

The new theory will be broken on a special edition of Bill Nye Saves the World, with an Emergency Use Authorization from Michael E. Mann and the FDA (for the cones).

Last edited 2 months ago by Anon
Mike McMillan
Reply to  Anon
September 17, 2021 10:32 pm

“watching Joe Biden eat an ice cream cone”

comment image

Dave Fair
Reply to  Anon
September 18, 2021 2:51 pm

Fascinating. One year ago Energy and the Environment and Scientific American stated that the Antarctic was warming three times faster than the global average. Today, we are assured it has been cooling for 40 years. What changed in one year? The data must have been there all along.

September 17, 2021 10:56 pm

From NTZ here
“They found that the temperature trend from ERA5 is consistent with that from observations. The result: a cooling trend dominates East Antarctica and West Antarctica while a warming trend exists in the Antarctic Peninsula.”

Ah, WUWT! Just yesterday, the BBC was being slammed for using ERA5:
“The key sentence concerns the use of ERA5, which is essentially a computer model. In other words, the BBC is not using actual data at all, merely the outworkings of a model.
Their analysis is only fit for the bin,”

Today ERA5 is the hero. But not in the Chinese paper cited, which is doing a comparison between ERA5 and surface data. They do note correlation, but say:
“The variability in annual and seasonal mean temperature can be reproduced by ERA5, although bias occurs. Over the whole of Antarctica, ERA5 presents a cold bias with the exception of JJA, while ERA-Interim shows a cold bias in all annual and seasonal means.”

“We conclude that ERA5 performs well in Antarctica, but it is necessary to correct the biases to improve the reanalysis.”

Of course, NTZ do not do that.

David Guy-Johnson
Reply to  Nick Stokes
September 17, 2021 11:29 pm

You are such a sad little boy.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
September 18, 2021 12:09 am

At least half of all climate publications involve climate models. And most of those models have a warming bias.

So research with biased climate models is entirely orthodox in the scientific community at the present time.

For example, previous research has shown that due to the peculiar climate of Antarctica including a surface temperature inversion, the “greenhouse” effect of CO2 goes into reverse and cools, not warms, Antarctica. This is not a marginal skeptic view but mainstream science published in Nature journals:

https://ptolemy2.wordpress.com/2021/05/16/negative-greenhouse-effect-over-the-high-and-cold-antarctic-plateau/

However in response to this, alarmed alarmists have hit back with a study, based solely on a (no doubt biased) computer model, to reassure the faithful that all is well and that CO2 does after all warm Antarctica. (Even though the continent is cooling except the western peninsula sitting on a row of active volcanoes.)

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/31/1/jcli-d-17-0418.1.xml

Last edited 2 months ago by Hatter Eggburn
Jay
Reply to  Hatter Eggburn
September 18, 2021 6:28 am

It’s almost like Theology, Not Science…

Anthony Banton
Reply to  Hatter Eggburn
September 18, 2021 9:18 am

CO2 goes into reverse and cools, not warms, Antarctica. “

Thanks for that link Hatter:
The effect is even more marked than I supposed ……

Figure 4 shows the global distribution of the greenhouse effect of CO2 in 2006, averaged for the whole year, as measured from satellite. For most of the Antarctic Plateau, GHETES is close to zero or even slightly negative; i.e., the presence of CO2 increases radiative cooling. Over Greenland, the greenhouse effect of CO2 is also comparatively weak but invariably positive. An evaluation of monthly averages of GHETES shows that the increased cooling due to CO2 of Antarctica is strongest during austral spring and autumn; seasons when the stratosphere above 20 km is mostly warmer than the surface. Even though the surface is coldest in austral winter, the temperature difference between the surface and stratosphere is not at its maximum then. Consequently, GHETES does not reach its minimum in austral winter. The TES results demonstrate that the yearly averages of GHETES being negative are unique to the Antarctic Plateau and nowhere else observed on the planet. This is due to the fact that Antarctica is the only region on Earth where the surface is frequently colder than the stratosphere.”

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Nick Stokes
September 18, 2021 1:10 am

Huh? Try that again, in English.

John Mauer
Reply to  Nick Stokes
September 18, 2021 2:22 pm

And the measurements?

AntarcticaCoolingERA0221.png
Dave Fair
Reply to  Nick Stokes
September 18, 2021 2:55 pm

““They found that the temperature trend from ERA5 is consistent with that from observations. …” Biased or not, they still have the same cooling trends. It is the trend they are reporting.

TheFinalNail
September 17, 2021 11:29 pm

The table above shows East Antarctica, which covers two thirds of the continent, saw a cooling of 0.70°C per decade over the past 40 years. In total that particular region has cooled about 2.8°C since 1980.West Antarctica has cooled at a rate of 0.42°C per decade over the past 40 years.

Not quite. It only shows the ERA5 model reanalysis. It snips both the earlier EA-Interim model reanalysis and the actual station observations. See table 4 in the paper, the annual component of which is shown below (you may have to click on it for a clear view, sorry).

All 3 measures agree on statistically significant cooling in East Antarctica (1979-2018), with both computer models showing more cooling than station observations. Only ERA5 shows statistically significant cooling in West Antarctica over the same period. ERA-Interim shows less cooling than observations in WA, although all agree on ‘best estimate’ cooling. For the Peninsula, all 3 agree on ‘best estimate’ but not statistically significant warming.

UAH provides up to date data for lower troposphere temperatures above Antarctic land areas (SoPol_Land). Between Dec 1979 and Aug 2021 UAH shows a non-significant best estimate warming trend of +0.09C per decade.

So, as is often the case, rather more nuanced than NoTricksZone would have us believe.

Table 4 - annual.JPG
Last edited 2 months ago by TheFinalNail
John Phillips
Reply to  TheFinalNail
September 18, 2021 2:44 am

So, as is often the case, rather more nuanced than NoTricksZone would have us believe.”

But we know we can trust NTZ to be objective, because their ‘un-nuanced’ reports are equally biased towards warming and cooling, right?

LOL

Petit_Barde
September 18, 2021 12:34 am

That’s because the closer you get to the South Pole the more you have to read the data upside down.

fretslider
September 18, 2021 12:42 am

There ya go. global heating causes, er, cooling

Paul Tikotin
Reply to  fretslider
September 18, 2021 6:00 am

Absolutely correct. Energy into any system, a refrigerator or a planetary climate system can cause cooling. (Overall, there will be heating of course.)

Alan the Brit
Reply to  fretslider
September 18, 2021 8:21 am

That’s why they changed to expression from Global Warming to Climate Change, that way it doesn’t matter which way the temperature goes, it’s ALL the fault of Free Enterprise Capitalism perpetrated by the democratic free West!!! Socialism/Communism is THE only solution to the problem, whatever the problem is!!! Power, money, manipulation, & control!!!

2hotel9
September 18, 2021 4:55 am

Surprising? Really? Only to idiotic greentards.

OK S.
September 18, 2021 5:50 am

Speaking of the Artic 🙂 How is the Baby Ice doing this summer?

Lucia hasn’t had her contest in years, but it was fun to follow.

Jay
September 18, 2021 6:22 am

Wow! It’s almost like climate is Cyclical…

Jim Gorman
September 18, 2021 6:44 am

Hmmm? A continent the size of Antarctica has cooled 2.8 degrees. Where is the same size region that had warmed (2.8 + 1.5) = 4.3 degrees to make the Global Average Temp come out to +1.5 deg?

TheFinalNail
Reply to  Jim Gorman
September 18, 2021 11:44 pm

When it come to Antartuc land areas, I guess it depends on whether you trust the ERA5 model output (-2.8C cooling, 1979-2018) more than the UAH satellite data (+0.09C per decade warming, 1979-2021).

Usually at WUWT folks prefer UAH over model outputs, but I guess exceptions are made in certain circumstances.

Bob boder
September 18, 2021 6:47 am

So, if Antarctic is cooling at over .1 degrees per decade how does that figure in the global average especially since all those average calculations show a warming trend in Antarctica.

Anthony Banton
Reply to  Bob boder
September 18, 2021 10:03 am

The area of Antarctica is 2.7% of the Earth’s surface

And observations there are included in the computation of the GMST.
But not ERA5.

“how does that figure in the global average especially since all those average calculations show a warming trend in Antarctica.”

Since ’81 the GMST has warmed at ~ 0.18C/dec

If Antarctica has cooled at 0.1C/dec since ’81 then (by my calc) it has saved the Globe all of ~ 0.005 C/dec of warming.

Last edited 2 months ago by Anthony Banton
Bob boder
Reply to  Anthony Banton
September 18, 2021 1:34 pm

Except the models show warming Antarctica not cooling, every report is about catastrophic warming that cause runaway sea level rise. In fact it’s pretty much the only boogie man they have left in their scare bag.

Reply to  Anthony Banton
September 20, 2021 2:22 pm

Antarctica “punches above its weight” in the global climate due to its oceanic influence. It acts and the “Grand Central Station” of the Thermohaline circulation system:

A766844B-2E81-4B26-8878-DA6A4A452B29.jpeg
DMacKenzie
September 18, 2021 7:29 am

“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence”…..and I don’t think the results of their own re-analysis counts as evidence. Maybe they should have picked a different computer re-analysis run that showed .1 degrees per decade to be more believable.

Olen
September 18, 2021 9:02 am

To paraphrase Claude Rains in Casablanca I am shocked, shocked there is cooling in Antarctica.

JRo
September 18, 2021 9:22 am

Shhhhh! Don’t tell the climate worrying media, such as the BBC. They only report new high temperature records, not the new low temperature records which balance them out to maintain a static global balance.

SAMURAI
September 18, 2021 10:16 am

According to an ancient 2015 NASA report, Antarctic Land Ice has actually been Increasing at around 100 billion tons/year since 1992, which is consistent with this new paper showing Antarctica has been cooling significantly:

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses

Leftists hated NASA’s Antarctic Land Ice report so they made a new one showing it decreasing by 100 billion tons a year…

Leftists say they’re the party of science…. not so much..

rah
September 18, 2021 12:59 pm

“This of course should be seen as good news for the global warming alarmists who fear the South Pole might melt.”

But of course it won’t be considered good news by alarmists because it is evidence that they have been wrong. I don’t view it as “good news” for man kind either for obvious reasons.

ResourceGuy
September 18, 2021 2:48 pm

But claimed warming was good for Jerry Brown and his federal funding hunt.

Peter K
September 18, 2021 5:39 pm

This must a worry for the thousands of so called research scientists on their long term junk stay in Antarctica. I cannot believe the amount of presence, disturbance and pollution that many countries cause researching climate change, down there. The “science is settled”, so just go home.

TallDave
September 19, 2021 6:49 am

not really surprising

remember we originally launched the satellites to track the progress of the icecaps

had the rest of the world seen the same trend we’d be writing civilization’s epitaphs

RMT
September 19, 2021 8:39 pm

Well lets focus on that warming trend, rather than the cooling trend.

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