Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Naughty China, India and Saudi Arabia have missed the date for submitting their climate change COP26 homework to the UN.
UN: Climate pledges put world on ‘catastrophic pathway’
By FRANK JORDANS
BERLIN (AP) — The world is on a “catastrophic pathway” toward a hotter future unless governments make more ambitious pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions, the head of the United Nations said Friday.
A new U.N. report reviewing all the national commitments submitted by signatories of the Paris climate accord until July 30 found that they would result in emissions rising nearly 16% by 2030, compared with 2010 levels.
Scientists say the world must start to sharply curb emissions soon and add no more to the atmosphere by 2050 than can be absorbed if it is to meet the most ambitious goal of the Paris accord — capping global temperature rise at 1.5 Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) by 2100.
“The world is on a catastrophic pathway to 2.7 degrees (Celsius) of heating,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said.
Experts say the planet has already warmed by 1.1 C since pre-industrial times.
Dozens of countries, including major emitters such as China, India and Saudi Arabia, failed to submit new pledges in time for the report.
Espinosa called for leaders at next week’s annual U.N. gathering in New York to put forward stronger commitments in time for the global body’s upcoming climate summit in Glasgow.
“Leaders must engage in a frank discussion driven not just by the very legitimate desire to protect national interest, but also by the equally commanding goal of contributing to the welfare of humanity,” she said. “We simply have no more time to spare, and people throughout the world expect nothing less.”
…Read more: https://apnews.com/article/europe-business-climate-environment-and-nature-paris-0d8ceb2d9805c3803e14c0070142ff59
My question, how long will China and India continue to play this emissions reduction charade?
There is no chance either of them will agree to a significant drop in emissions. China is determined to build the most powerful navy in the world, by some measures their navy is already more powerful than the USA. India is desperately racing to match the Chinese military buildup. Other powers in the region are not sitting on their hands, while everyone else tools up.
All that military buildup, and the industry which is required to support such efforts, should ensure CO2 emissions rapidly surge higher for the foreseeable future.
If Chao Baiden would simply give Taiwan to mainland China, they wouldn’t need to build all those ships. Humanity could be spared. C’mon, man!
Don’t forget BoJo is part of this deal, whatever he touched turnes into ‘hot air’. On more serious note, there is panic in the UK mass media this morning, and this is not a joke: ‘British government is considering importing CO2 due to serious and unexpected shortages’.
Incredible but true !
Daily Telegraph:”On Friday night, the meat industry said the disruption of the supply of carbon dioxide had “plunged the industry into chaos”. It warned that carbon dioxide stocks would run out within two weeks.”
Reality trumps theory
This one-page Summary published 1Sept2021 compares the Covid-19 scam with the Global Warming Scam – note all the similarities between these two political frauds.
I made similar points in my last paper, first published in March 2021.
CLIMATE CHANGE, COVID-19, AND THE GREAT RESET
A Climate, Energy and Covid Primer for Politicians and Media
By Allan M.R. MacRae, Published March 21, 2021, Update 1e published May 8, 2021
Our politicians are swimming up to their necks in bullsh!t. They seem to think we don’t see through their global scams. At least some of us do.
Their stupidity would make me weep, if I weren’t laughing so much!
Laugh till you cry then you’re covering all bases! 🤓
Whereas it would make me laugh if I weren’t crying so much.
Blame it on China
He pulled a Biden on Kerry; looking at watch at inappropriate moments.
Except that Xi knew what he was doing!
China merely sees the South Pacific and Indian and Southern Oceans to be extensions of the South China Sea. Why can’t people comprehend that?
Yes, apparently when they complete construction of new island bases they will fill in the areas between.
You’d think Hank Johnson would warn China their new islands might tip over and capsize.
They do. They just know the Chinese are lying.
The best measure of navy’s size is its weight. The US Navy is double the displacement tonnage of the Chinese navy.
I would have said ‘capability’. If weight was the criterion, the Yamato would have beaten all those light aircraft…
The US Navy has a lot of it’s tonnage tied up in aircraft carriers whilst the Chinese have been concentrating mainly on smaller missile carriers – it’s fairly obvious that they see massive missile barrages as the way to eliminate the carrier threat.
Future control of the seas will depend more on the “silent service” rather than tonnage of surface ships Letting Australia operate some of our fast attack subs signals China that they are not going to be in control.
The nuclear-powered submarines can run much quieter than a diesel submarine, and has a lot more range, so it is a bigger threat to the Chicoms.
I see where the New Zealand leader has said Australian nuclear-powered submarines cannot park in New Zealand. Knee-jerk stupidity.
I read the Collins class subs are much quieter than nuclear. Do you know if that’s true?
Apparently yes Tom, but only when submerged and running on batteries. But they can’t do this for very long.
Sorry, I don’t know the answer to that.
No. If they think carriers are vulnerable to missile barrages, why are the building carriers?
It doesn’t matter if US has ten times the tonnage.
China can and will use it and try to win.
With Biden as Chief and the likes of Thoroughly Modern Milley, just guess who will win?
When was the last US win?
Electric powered planes will have a short flight time but a hell of a weapon for a kamikaze pilot. Could you imagine the difficulty in extinguishing the battery fire upon crashing. Put the fire out then it reignites; time-after-time.
No pilots. Remote controlled planes. UAV’s.
Makes sense Bill. I bet you’re not Hank’s relative.
Similarly, thermite is almost impossible to extinguish. Like the blood from the Alien, it burns through almost anything.
Please don’t equate the incapability of Biden with the capability of the U.S. military.
If the U.S. military has a good leader, it can kick the ass of any opponent, and does on a regular basis, when called upon, just ask the guys on the receiving end. It’s not the U.S. military’s fault that on occasion the American people elect really stupid leaders.
Experience in battle and a tradition of winning battles is what the U.S. military brings to the table. The Chicom military hasn’t won a battle since the Middle Kingdom. Murdering innocent, helpless Tibetans or Muslims doesn’t count as a battlefield victory.
The Chicoms had the U.S. outnumbered during the Korean war, too. It didn’t do them any good. It won’t do them any good now, if the U.S. has a good leader, because the U.S. *always* has good fighters. We’ve had plenty of practice.
Come and get it!
Following UN goals, Macarthur decended Sth Korea against the North which tried to re-unify Korea by force. Macarthur then invaded the North and tried to reunify the country by force. The Chinese came to the North’s defence and Macarthur/US lost the subsequent battles.
You’re making Xi smile.
“Finally!” the military said, “Someone we can beat!”
The Roman Empire didn’t collapse from lack of manpower and equipment, they collapsed because their leaders totally lost the plot.
I thought is was climate change that caused the demise of the Roman Empire! Is history repeating?
The Roman Warming transitioned into the Dark Ages, which didn’t do them any favours with crop failures. They also suffered a series of major plagues. But a major factor was increasing centralisation and an out of touch kleptomaniac senate, increasingly composed of people who had no military experience and made poor defence decisions, a massive influx of barbarians, who came into conflict with the locals, and massive state debts and collapsing tax revenues.
I think there is strong evidence that good leadership could have fixed the other problems, when you look at the brief recoveries under leaders like Charlemagne, only to have all their gains undone by the folly of their successors.
Sounds like your thinking about the EU . But really the whole Western free’ ? World appears to be heading in the same direction . Turn the power off and we would be in the dark ages , no internet or media .
Someone like Trump could be that leader but he was too realistic for most to realise .
Charlemagne came around when things began to warm up a bit and monks had invented 3 phase crop rotation that vastly improved harvests.
Rome was built on expansion providing new sources of slaves and soldiers and glory. The forested area between the Rhine and Danube; deserts in the Mideast and south, and the Atlantic in the west, were all natural barriers to expansion, along with the sheer size slowing down regional coordination. Once the expansion stopped, the only path left for the ambitious was fighting over who was emperor. That coincided roughly with climate cooling, which reduced resilience — crop failures were more widespread, regions couldn’t support each other, and the ambitious were too busy fighting over a decreasing pie.
The only real mystery is how they lasted so long, 1100 years, and that was probably mostly the luck of climate warming being timed with their initial expansion.
Don’t forget the Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantium) lasted till 1456 when Constantinople finally fell to the Muslims.
Actually the lack of manpower, after several disastrous plagues, is probably the main reason. Of course the core of the Persian empire being in the way to further expansion in the east could also be a factor.
Hard to expand in the west because of the lack of dry land, and conversely, hard to expand the southern border in North Africa due to the excess of extremely dry land in the south.
Why the Romans were unable to expand in the north-west direction has always puzzled me, however.
Their military was used to open areas, not heavy forests like northern Europe. It’s not that the Romans didn’t know what trees were, but almost every place they conquered was pretty wide open, with small wooded areas at most, compared to northern Europe.
Same reason the Khans couldn’t get past central Europe — they were horse soldiers and ran out of steppe.
Does Hadrian’s Wall provide a clue?
…a clue that that there wasn’t anything worth conquering in Scotland? 🙂
My point was that it seemed the emperors didn’t seem to value anything up north, focusing their energies east – inspite of the fact that it was on Augustus’ wishlist and would have removed a war front. Surely the Persians were a greater power than the German tribes, why not take out the weaker power on your doorstep.
But the US Navy would have to take the fight to China, whilst the Chinese would be fighting in their own front yard. The supply chains would be enormous for the US but not the Chinese. Plus the US Navy has been plagued with problems in recent years – it’s not a simple problem.
I doubt the Chinese navy will last long against nuclear attack subs.
In a hundred years, the world powers will be China and India, with the US being yesterday’s news, just like the previous world power, Britain, is today, and many before them in history…..
Nah, the UK is already considering a wind powered aircraft carrier, an underwater flagship and unmanned attack boats as future fighting vessels for the Royal Navy. Some of the ideas from young engineers from UK Naval Engineering Science and Technology. Hail the coming resurgence.
And Russia? Are you writing them off?
Russia was yesterday’s news the day after the Berlin wall fell….not really written off….the wannabe powers can still kick the new block bully a good one in the shins…just would be stupid to risk the consequences….the time to start calling Big Jim “boss” is only about a decade away….Big Xin already runs the UN….
China will play the Climate Charade as long as it is politically useful to them. The same would happen here in US if Democrat/Marxists succeed in seizing complete political power, as the CCP has in mainland China including now HongKong.
The climate scam is about political power, both at the national level and at the UN hoping to be the Kingmaker in a NWO.
But when (not “if”) the energy poverty that comes with the climate scam starts to threaten the Marxist-Democrat hold on power they will dump the climate scam and begin digging up and burning every lump of coal that can be mined in order to maintain political power. This is happening now in the UK with the planned use of coal fired generation as a winter 2022/22energy crunch looms and the political class understands how a severe energy crisis in the dead calm of a cold winter night would threaten their legitimacy.
“China will play the Climate Charade as long as it is politically useful to them.”
Or as long as the EU, the USA, etc., will push for the charade to continue. The charade exists because there is some/one/thing promoting it.
China actively pushes the climate and eco-activism charades on gullible-do-gooder-useful-idiots with a view to cripple US and European manufacturing capabilities, hinder access to oil and gas, mines, minerals, and chemical production, while dramatically increasing their own capabilities in those same areas. It is about world domination, not saving the environment.
China, India and Saudi Arabia are doing the right thing. The leaders of the US, EU, and 100+ countries are ignoring real science and pushing fraudulent politics and Agenda 2030. Humans cannot control CO2 concentration. Atmospheric CO2 concentration today is the same as it would be if humans never existed. Full stop.
Atmospheric CO2 concentration is controlled by Henry’s Law which determines the solubility of CO2 gas in ocean surface. The dominant variable in the Henry Law phase-state equilibium equation is temperature of ocean surface. On a global average, it is the area of ocean surface at a given temperature that controls CO2 gas concentration in air and CO2 gas concentration in ocean surface. Ocean surface Area above 25.6 C emits CO2 gas. Ocean surface area below 25.6 C absorbs CO2 gas. The rate limiting step in the flux is the migration rate of aqueous CO2 gas in ocean surface. The source of the CO2 is not a variable in Henry’s law. The solubility partition ratio of CO2 gas in ocean water versus CO2 gas in atmosphere above the water is independent of the source of the CO2. There is a reservoir of CO2 in the atmosphere of about 800 gigatons, and a reservoir of CO2 gas in ocean surface of about 1000 gigatons. There is a flux of CO2 gas from ocean to air of about 90 gigatons per year and another flux of CO2 from air to ocean surface of about 90 gigatons per year. For reference, human CO2 emissions from all sources are estimated at about 8 gigatons per year and these emissions are mixed both chaotically and systematically with air and ocean surface reservoirs. These fluxes occur continuously year round. At the same time, there is a CO2 gas hydration reaction which is removing CO2 gas from the Henry’s Law equilibrium reaction stoichiometry, wherein an amount of the aqueous CO2 gas in ocean surface hydrates and becomes carbonic acid H2CO3. This causes the Henry’s reaction to re-equilibrate, which removes more CO2 gas from the atmosphere to rebalance the Henry’s phase-state stoichiometry for the surface temperature, alkalinity, salinity and partial pressure in each specific location. https://budbromley.blog/2021/08/18/henrys-law-controls-co2-concentration-not-humans/
That is my view but I wonder what has happened to the two objections often promulgated here in the past that:
The isotope proportions of CO2 in the atmosphere do not support oceanic emission and
The action of Henry’s Law would not produce enough emissions from the ocean to account for observations.
My answers, often dismissed were:
Emissions from the oceans could pass through biological activity which would alter the isotope type and
Ocean overturning would bring enough fresh CO2 rich water to the surface to allow Henry’s Law to produce enough to account for observations.
Are those points now accepted?
Henry’s law is not the only way that CO2 is released to the atmosphere. When water evaporates (and cools the surface) the dissolved CO2 is released to the atmosphere. About 90% of that CO2 is C12 from decaying organic matter (phytoplankton). So when SSTs rise, so will atmospheric CO2 with higher fractions of C12.
CO2 release really doesn’t matter. Except plants love it.
Also, something that isn’t taken into consideration is that CO2 out-gassing with warming water will favor the lighter 12C isotope, thus it mimics fossil fuel combustion. Because the oceans have such a larger volume than the air, the slight enrichment in 13C in the oceans isn’t as easily measured as the 12C enrichment of the atmosphere.
Sorry, but you do not understand either science or history. 65 million years ago CO2 levels were much higher than at the start of our current warm period. As documented at
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html, CO2 has been rising as a result of human emissions. When the asteroid hit our atmosphere and killed the dinosaurs, it also created massive forest destruction world-wide and reduced CO2 levels as the former forests were buried, forming some of our current coal deposits.
During the ice ages, the world temperature decreases significantly and the oceans absorb some of the atmospheric CO2. As the ice ages end, the atmospheric CO2 increases again. This is well-documented in lecture 11 of “The Physics of History” available on DVD from “The Great Courses”
The overall amount of CO2 is fairly constant and is continually recycled by earth’s system outside of the likes of asteroid hits (see appropriately numbered lecture 13) and our burning of coal. Plate tectonics does the recycling as earthquakes bury ocean bottom sediment and volcanoes bring the carbon back up. The change in earth’s temperature is minimally affected by the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere; other factors are far more prominent in causing our warming and cooling, including the likes of solar activity as it affects our cloud cover and Milankovitch Cycles as they affect how and when the solar heat gets to earth (see again the referenced lecture for details.)
Further support for much of this is in Dr. Singer’s excellent co-authored book “Unstoppable Global Warming” and “Climate Change in Prehistory” by Burroughs.
That is NOAA’s and NASA’s working hypothesis. Some of us are questioning the validity of the assumption.
I think that the process of isotopic fractionation with out-gassing and precipitation of limy muds is not well-studied. Thus, there are several unstated assumptions that are being ignored.
Human contributions to the Carbon Cycle are only about 5% of the total carbon flux. It is just coincidence that the annual increase in atmospheric CO2 is about half of the anthropogenic emissions because the reservoirs can’t tell the difference between human and non-human fluxes. That explains why, when anthropogenic emissions declined 18+% in early-2020, there was no measurable decline in the rate of growth of CO2. Five percent of 18% is less than 0.01%!
It looks like our Establishment leaders will soon be in middle-ranking positions with India, China or Saudi….
They sure do, as the UK interest in why energy prices are through the roof, when wind and solar are providing nothing useful whatsoever, is prompting queries as to the feasibility of ‘net zero’, let alone its advisability.
Put the popcorn on your charcoal brazier, and settle in for an interesting winter..
Oops. thats not right
cant edit images in WUWT – big omission
“Put the popcorn on your charcoal brazier, and settle in for an interesting winter..”
Winter? Closed doors and windows. Charcoal – indoors? Not recommended.
I’ve heard it said that death from carbon monoxide poisoning is an easy way to go, just go to sleep and never wake up.
This should be a great concern for Australia. Australia extracts more than half of the world’s iron ore.
Even with the iron ore price falling 40% in the past two months it is still highly profitable – exorbitant really. Australia has proven over the last two years that the country can sit on its backside and watch Netflix as long as iron ore, coal and gas is being loaded onto ships. It’s a great gig.
In fact, with the SKI generation confined to Australian borders, the current account has never been healthier:
On average, every Australia made the best part of AUD3,000 doing not much over the past 18 months.
How long before China recognises this inequality.where they actually have to work to make a living converting Australian iron to steel using Australian coal and gas then sending it back in the form of luxury items, including random energy generators, for the enjoyment of the woke set in Australia. Surely it would be easier just to take it!
For the record, iron ore has come down from a peak of ~US.165.00 to today’s price of US $119.96.
You are correct.It is still a very healthy price.
The Australian Treasury has done the forward budget based on a figure of ~$50.00 a tonne.
That will give you some idea of how profitable iron ore exports have been for Australia.
That’s good news.
I doubt that most people realise how many types of minerals and energy are part of the enormous reserves being exploited and most not yet being exploited Australia has.
Then add all other exports.
Also what’s interesting is that Australia’s third largest export being education.
The irony is that a large proportion of the students are Chinese.
Its getting harder and harder to ignore the real world. They are all going to show up to COP26 accompanied by a blizzard of advance publicity from the NYT, PBS, NPR, the Guardian, the BBC.
All this is promoting the idea that global CO2 emissions are going to destroy human civilzation on planet earth and must be reduced. From, say, 37+ billion tons to something like 5 billion, and quite rapidly. This is, according to the activists, what it will take to save us.
But, they are increasingly confronted with the refusal of China and India, the leading and fastest growing emitters, to reduce or even consider putting a ceiling on their emissions. China, mining and burning more coal than the rest of the world put together. The West static or declining, and anyway only doing about 25% of global emissions. This is getting impossible to deny.
So its going to be very interesting. This time its going to be impossible to conceal the significance of the decisions. They are between a rock and a hard place. If they demand real reductions from China, they will get a flat refusal. If they accept that China carries on growing, they make a nonsense of the whole thing.
Lay in popcorn. The crunch is coming.
Of course the other crunch which is underway is the complete lack of any climate emergency or catastrophic warming….
Should Indians start clubbing the UK / France with Poland / Romania or the US with Russia?
Asia is BIG and very diverse.
Clubbing India with China for emission size wrongly (pp & abs) but next correctly stating that PR China burns more coal than the rest of the world together: your sentence doesn’t make sense.
India has one of the lowest CO2 emissions pp in the whole world – and thus regularly black outs. Electricity is not too expensive due to plenty of coal and some nuclear base load. Wind spins only during 4 months of summer monsoon, which is also quite cloudy on the solar panels – it is not a desert here.
RCP puts it very well.
Add race and sex orientation to the climate change posturing and movies are now unwatchable.
“Experts say the planet has already warmed by 1.1 C since pre-industrial times.” Experts say the planet has already warmed by 1.1 C since end of the Little Ice Age. There, fixed it.
That must be why the ice is melting.
And Antarctica has got 2 degrees C COLDER since 1980..
And the Earth has cooled by 0.5C since the “hottest year evah!, 2016, so that 0.5C should be subtracted from any figure such as this given by an alarmist. The alarmists still think we are living in 2016. Time has moved on and the temperatures have cooled.
Oh well, the UN IPCC will need to lean harder on Australia to do the heavy lifting instead.
Have to agree, if people do what these UN morons keep screeching should be done it will end in catastrophe.
Like another Biden-supervised exit from Afghanistan — only worse!
There is one thing and only one thing leftards can do, f**k up everything they touch. Got a 100% record on that.
Oh dear; so many lies packed into one simple statement. First, notice the word “already”, implying that the warmup has been rapid, persistent, and ongoing, with the further implication that it is alarming. Then we have the double-whammy effect of the phrase “since pre-industrial times”. The Climate Liars love that, because it implies, via correlation, that man has been responsible. But, even the Climate Liars know that man’s CO2 emissions didn’t really start ramping up until after WWII. And what did temperatures do? Much to their dismay, we actually cooled some, so they have to invent “reasons” for that, like aerosols.
“Oh dear; so many lies packed into one simple statement.”
What about this tour de force of concentrated lies, courtesy of Espinosa?:
……..but also by the equally commanding goal of contributing to the welfare of humanity,” she said. “We simply have no more time to spare, and people throughout the world expect nothing less.”
If it wasn’t for 180-degree opposites, the left and bogus-left would have nothing to say.
Well, if looks like the UK and much of Europe are headed for a South Australia/Texas level electric crash, without the unusually bad weather as an excuse. It would appear that having over a certain percentage of the grid being weather dependent sources will result in a crash.
“It would appear that having over a certain percentage of the grid being weather dependent sources will result in a crash.”
Yes. I think this is starting to become abundantly clear to even the alarmists. And this problem can’t be fixed by just adding more windmills or solar.
Yes, we are getting close to reality intruding on the delusions of the alarmists.
“I think this is starting to become abundantly clear to even the alarmists”
Except for one, at least…
I misread the headline and thought the AP had suddenly come to its senses. The UN pledges, if met, would surely lead to disaster as economies fail and thousands freeze to death each winter. But nooooo, they meant the opposite.
Besides, Nancy Pelosi has said we must turn a blind eye to Chinese human rights abuses in order for them to make more phony climate pledges.
Nancy will do whatever it takes to keep those blue state votes locked in –
Thousands of illegals pouring over her southern border – all good.
A million or so muslims in Chinese labor camps – all good.
Drive-by abortion centers – all good.
Black lives (but not Blue or All lives) matter – all good.
Capitol rioters who caused not 1 death are the same as 9/11 terrorists 3,000 murdered – all good.
Need I go on?
“We simply have no more time to spare, and people throughout the world expect nothing less.”
It seems to me that we’ve had no more time to spare for quite some time now. I don’t recall off-hand when the “we’re-running-out-of-time” narrative started, but it reminds me of the Aesop’s Fable about the boy who cried wolf…..
“Even when liars tell the truth, they are never believed. The liar will lie once, twice, and then perish when he tells the truth.”
The whole CAGW narrative would be funny if it wasn’t pathetic.
If the Chinese don’t build more coal fired power plants, they won’t be able to build enough solar panels and windmills to cover the US and Europe with useless virtue signals.
There is a longer discussion of Chinese (PLAN) naval capability vs. the USN further down in the comments. So this does not get lost in that, some additional information. Block obsolescence is overtaking the USN. While we spent billions of dollars and many years building small Littoral Combat Ships (aka little crappy ships – some of which are now being retired at a very young age), China went on a ship building frenzy that is staggering by any measure. In a very short period, the PLAN took delivery of 72 Type 056 corvettes, 30 Type 54A frigates and 26 Type 052D/DL destroyers. While the USN is decommissioning (six scheduled next year) Ticonderoga-class cruisers (i.e. large destroyers), the PLAN has launched or commissioned eight massive Type 055 cruiser/large destroyers. Construction of Chinese carriers, large amphibs and submarines has not slowed, as in the US. All of these PLAN ship classes are very capable combatants. Also, keep in mind that the Chinese coast guard is the largest in the world, and China is unique in operating a Maritime Militia. Neither organization is shy about flexing their muscle forcefully in contested areas, using their new coast guard law to threaten firing on other nation’s ships.
China has a government that is focusing on the Big Picture.
Currently, the U.S. has leaders that don’t have a clue. The Democrats are a disaster in every way possible when it comes to U.S. national defense.
The U.S. Navy was in a run-down condition back a few decades ago and Ronald Reagan came along and increased the Navy’s capacity to up over 600 ships. I think we have about half that many now.
All the U.S. needs is some good leadership. We won’t have any for at least the next 15 months. Then we will slowly start turning this off-course ship back on the right course as Republicans regain control of the government.
Perhaps, after the American people have seen this unbelievable debacle of government by the Democrats unfold, they will decide not to elect Democrats to govern over them for a very long time into the future. It should be obvious that everything the Democrats touch turns to you know what.