Flex Alert + CA Recall = Timing

The essence of humor is timing. Months ago I wondered what the chances were of a blackout on the day before or day of the California recall election. Probably not gonna happen. But at least there are some reminders of the state of the California energy grid within the electorate’s short term memory period. Is Gavin Newsom punching the walls today? Five days until election.

From the California ISO

For immediate release | Sept. 9, 2021

Flex Alert issued for today due to widespread heat in West
Consumers urged to reduce energy use from 4-9 p.m. to relieve grid stress

FOLSOM, Calif. – The California Independent System Operator (ISO) has extended a statewide Flex Alert for a second day, issuing a call for voluntary electricity conservation for today, Sept. 9, from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m., because of hot weather affecting much of California and the West, and tight energy supply margins in the market.

Today’s Flex Alert follows yesterday’s conservation call, also due to above-normal temperatures in the western states. During a Flex Alert, consumers are urged to conserve electricity from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. by setting their thermostats to 78 degrees or higher, and deferring use of major appliances and unnecessary lights during that time.

The ISO also issued a system-wide Restricted Maintenance Operations (RMO) order for today and tomorrow from noon to 9 p.m., delaying routine maintenance of generation and transmission equipment so that all available resources are online for the critical evening time.

The Flex Alerts have been issued due to above-normal temperatures leading to high electricity demand in California and parts of the western US, narrow margins of supply, and cloud cover creating uncertainty for renewable generation forecasts.

Temperatures in the Northern California inland region are forecast to be 3-10 degrees warmer than normal. In Southern California, temperatures are expected to be 5-10 degrees warmer than normal through the weekend, primarily for the interior, although coastal regions are forecast to see some warming as well.

Above-normal temperatures throughout much of the interior western US are also expected this week, with some cities seeing a potential for record-breaking heat. Widespread heat waves affecting other western states limits the California ISO’s ability to import energy from neighboring power grids.

The ISO is predicting an increase in electricity demand, primarily from air conditioning use. The increase can stretch electricity supplies thin and cause strain on our power grid, especially in the late afternoon and evening, when solar production goes offline and wind generation is uncertain, however, temperatures and electricity demand remains high.

Consumers are urged to conserve electricity, especially during the late afternoon and early evening, when the grid is most stressed due to higher demand and solar energy production falling.

Reducing energy use during a Flex Alert can help stabilize the power grid during a time of tight supply conditions, and prevent further emergency measures, including rotating power outages.

For information on Flex Alerts, and to get more electricity conservation tips, visit FlexAlert.org.

During a Flex Alert
• Set thermostat at 78° or higher, if health permits
• Avoid using major appliances
• Turn off unnecessary lights
• Use fans for cooling
• Unplug unused items
Learn more about Flex Alerts and what you can do to prepare before an alert (Tips available in ESPAÑOL and TIẾNG VIỆT )

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September 9, 2021 6:04 pm

Would Governor Hair Gel manipulate the alert system to save his sorry self? Sure. Has he? God knows.

The Dark Lord
Reply to  Tom Halla
September 9, 2021 6:47 pm

ahh this hurts him … it reminds everyone of his bad management …

AndyHce
Reply to  The Dark Lord
September 9, 2021 9:45 pm

I would be happy to see him go, even though who ever replaces him is likely to be just as bad, but while he seems to be fully plugged into the delusion (or the scam to save the state employee pension system?), does he really have any power to significantly effect the out of control trolley car?

Reply to  AndyHce
September 9, 2021 10:06 pm

Last I was, talk show host Larry Elder was the leading candidate for replacement. He is a very sharp black guy who understands many current issues and their solutions.

Eric Vieira
Reply to  JimK
September 10, 2021 1:14 am

His main problems will be the large D majority CA legislative and most of the media against him. He will probably have major problems to get anything done. I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes if he gets elected. But Newsom has to go… any change has at least a chance of being for the better.

rah
Reply to  Eric Vieira
September 10, 2021 2:07 am

One thing he may be able to get done is put a hold on the socialist BS that comes out the legislature there. The other is serve as an example that there is a limit to what even a Democrat governor in CA can get away with.

One thing is for sure is Gavin and a lot of dems and their press are acting worried, But that doesn’t mean the fix isn’t in! I mean after all we just saw his opponent attacked and those that would do that will help the dems cheat anyway they can,

MarkW
Reply to  JimK
September 10, 2021 4:22 am

The biggest long term impact Larry Elder may have to fully expose the racism that is at the heart of most leftists.

Can you imagine the outrage in the media had a liberal black been attacked by a person wearing a gorilla mask?

Can you imagine the outrage in the media had a liberal black been accused of being the black face of white supremacism?

These have all happened to Elder, but crickets from the media and government officials.

J Mac
Reply to  Tom Halla
September 10, 2021 8:11 am

The Al Gore Effect lives on!

John F Hultquist
September 9, 2021 6:11 pm

Can someone check to see if the ACs are turned off in Sacramento?

Spetzer86
Reply to  John F Hultquist
September 9, 2021 8:04 pm

Hey, it worked for Mann.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Spetzer86
September 9, 2021 8:58 pm

Hansen, I believe.

Rhee
Reply to  John F Hultquist
September 10, 2021 10:36 am

governor hair gel doesn’t stay in sacramento, his time is spent at his luxe vineyards in napa

Tim Gorman
September 9, 2021 6:12 pm

Don’t you dare charge your EV in the evening! Just walk to work in the morning. (in CA?)

Mr.
September 9, 2021 6:37 pm

narrow margins of supply, and cloud cover creating uncertainty for renewable generation forecasts.

This should never be a “well, who’d have thought?” moment for any competent electricity generator / supplier.

Iain Russell
Reply to  Mr.
September 9, 2021 6:54 pm

Beat me to it! Clouds? Never thought of them…..

Eric Vieira
Reply to  Iain Russell
September 10, 2021 1:16 am

Do you mean clouts ???

Thomas Gasloli
September 9, 2021 6:57 pm

CA being CA it is likely he will survive. CA, like OR and WA, is just too far gone.

Paul Penrose
Reply to  Thomas Gasloli
September 10, 2021 9:22 am

Yeah, this is likely CA’s last chance to pull back from the brink, but I don’t think that will happen.

Klem
September 9, 2021 7:22 pm

He’s not worried, he knows Dominion has his back.

niceguy
Reply to  Klem
September 10, 2021 7:51 pm

Voting machines are state of the art, ultra secure, “golden standard”.

https://www.cyberscoop.com/election-security-experts-trump-voter-fraud-baseless/

In other news, possible leak of a password means that many machines can’t be used ever again as it made them fundamentally unsecure.
Also, leaking a software image is a risk for these ultra secure machines (what???) for the recall.

lee
September 9, 2021 7:29 pm

So what is the “normal” temperature for North and South Cali?

eck
September 9, 2021 7:56 pm

As I usually do when there’s one of these alerts, today I delayed my energy usage until I got home about 5 PM. Resist!!

Peta of Newark
September 9, 2021 7:59 pm

Never mind the Smell of Napalm in the morning, just get a whiff of all that Roast Turkey

& on the off-chance anyone fancied some ‘stuffing‘ – that list of ‘things to do‘ would be a perfect guidebook for those with ‘Civil Disobedience’ on their minds

(You can make the gravy this time. Be careful, the recipe calls for both Salt and Fat, it might will make you clear-headed, quick-witted & intelligent. A babe magnet also)

Hey why not some disobedience? The Elected Chosen Ones are being mendacious, un-civil and disobedient.
Sod conventional ‘elections’ via hacked voting machines and Chinese servers, send a message via every on/off switch in your house, home and office.
Switch everything on and leave it there. Might get a better/faster and more effective result

And double double double hey why not‘, it’s what the Eco-Loony-Greenies actually want = Unreliable Electricity.
Let ’em have it.

And if/when the Green Police come after you, all you say is that you didn’t get the message because the electricity, phone and Interweb were all off
Plus: you didn’t have any batteries or solar panels because of the slaves and pollution those things create nor want to electrifry any firefighters when Code Red Global Heating sets your house roof alight.
Cheer up, it’ll make some nice Roast Taties to go with the turkey, stuffing and gravy. Now: What else do we need for a Real Feast? Maybe some Brussels Sprouts? The resulting blast of wind will give Santa Ana a run for her money

But by being as thick, well-intentioned and vindictive as greenies are, will probably use a discarded spliff to burn your house down anyway.
The Kindergarten Rule Of Thumb will apply:
i.e.

  • If you have something nice, I want it…
  • If I can’t have it, I will trash it so nobody can have it.

Mmmmm: A lot like California and its electrikery doncha tink

Cue this morning’s Wonderation:
Do you get “Zombie Turkeys”. I’d wager ‘not’ – turkeys have prolly got vastly more intelligence than most peeps give them credit for.

e,g, Margarine was invented for them to eat and thus get big, fat and stupid in time for Xmas/Thanksgiving.
They wouldn’t touch the stuff.
So people ate it instead and got fat & stupid in time for every day of the year.
Epic stupidity, Simply epic

old engineer
September 9, 2021 9:01 pm

Nothing unusual here. I lived in Southern California from 1961 to 1965. The first two weeks of September were always the hottest weeks of the year.

Chris Hanley
Reply to  old engineer
September 9, 2021 9:27 pm

The lower table has the max temperature recorded at Los Angeles each year 1921 – 2009 (C), no obvious pattern there, considering the population in 1921 was around half a million and is now around 4 million.
The temperature prediction for Friday is a moderately warm maximum of ~30C (86F).

Juan Slayton
Reply to  Chris Hanley
September 10, 2021 5:10 am

Others have made the point that temperature patterns are local. I am getting an on-line prediction of moderately warm 89 for Los Angeles, 92 for Azusa, rising to 94 and 96 the next two days. As old engineer says, “Nothing unusual here.”

Reply to  old engineer
September 10, 2021 1:11 am

Yet they had planned maintenance running at this time!!!!

Retired_Engineer_Jim
September 9, 2021 9:06 pm

However, a large number of people have already voted, so ti won’t have much of an effect on the result. But Biden is coming Monday to stump for Newsom (in Long Beach). Might that have an effect? And Lizzie Warren was already here. Did that have any effect?

stinkerp
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
September 10, 2021 12:43 am

How about Kamala Harris showing up to make it a triumverate of unpopular politicians stumping for Gruesome. I think I can hear Larry Elder praying, “Make it so! Make it so!”

nailheadtom
Reply to  stinkerp
September 10, 2021 7:52 am

Is it part of Harris’ job description to campaign for California politicos while she’s on the federal payroll? Or is she taking some comp time for this?

Steve
September 9, 2021 9:17 pm

What a joke…As predicted by anyone with half a brain. Finally we are starting to see the results of total energy mismanagement.

MarkW
Reply to  Steve
September 10, 2021 4:25 am

But didn’t griff assure us that since such blackout/brownouts hadn’t happened in the recent past, this proves they can’t happen in the future.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  MarkW
September 10, 2021 9:15 am

I’m still swatting bugs in the desert Southwest after all the rains. Griff said we were in permanent drought. It’s the Griff effect and pesky.

Abolition Man
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 10, 2021 1:07 pm

ResourceGuy,
This has been the wettest monsoon I’ve seen in the high desert Southwest since I made my escape from Commifornia almost a decade ago! But I distinctly remember that late August to early September was the hottest time of year in the SF Bay Area back in the late 60s! That’s when we had two-a-day football practices; out on the field for four to six hours and the temps would break the century mark, but it was all good with a half gallon of A&W root beer, and a couple of burgers, before going home to a full dinner!

Dean
September 9, 2021 9:41 pm

“The increase can stretch electricity supplies thin and cause strain on our power grid, especially in the late afternoon and evening, when solar production goes offline and wind generation is uncertain, however, temperatures and electricity demand remains high.”

Gee not even Nostradamus could have guessed this would be the case!

John Larson
Reply to  Dean
September 10, 2021 1:03 am

It’s so utterly normal and wearisome by late summer, that if he lived here, I’m not sure even Joe Biden could fail to see it coming . .

September 9, 2021 9:52 pm

Here is a 10 day forecast for Folsom. Temps are for the high 80s to mid 90s F for the most part. One day is forecast to hit 97 F. That doesn’t sound very serious to me. … https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/a8b8a1e647c632c93c97cd28577518856d8b18f1901e8d48d1793518a9eb087b

Reply to  Charles Rotter
September 10, 2021 7:44 am

Firefighting is a glamorous activity, if you are a governor. Posing with the background of burning forests or burned cities. Governor Newsom cut the fire prevention budget by 50% in 2020. Now we have an impressive 2021 fire season.

The fire prevention budget currently proposed is about $1 billion. $4 billion are budgeted for a high speed train Merced-Bakersfield that California needs so badly.

Last edited 1 month ago by Curious George
Serge Wright
September 9, 2021 9:57 pm

Meanwhile, Newsom will probably have all appliances running in his power hungry 12,000 square foot Fair Oaks mansion as will all of his virtue signalling progressive elite colleagues living in similar energy intensive style. Lights out is only a problem for the poor plebiscites that are instructed to make sacrifice for their elite rulers.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/01/18/newsom-family-to-move-from-historic-mansion-to-3-7-million-home/

Philip
September 9, 2021 9:58 pm

Ah! Utopia. Runs like a broken clock.

AndyHce
September 10, 2021 12:23 am

I have little to no interest in political news but occasionally I can’t avoid hearing it playing on a TV over which I have no control. Coverage of the recall election made it clear that it has nothing to do with the state’s electricity supply. It is all about the state’s social care programs. Some unemployment checks have not been produced on time.

Furthermore, on the same news program, there was something about a CA state committee and its considerations of energy usage in the state. I didn’t hear the goal year, or didn’t remember it because of what immediately followed the date in that sentence. It was the committee’s job to decide how to reduce energy usage in the state by that date that I missed – by 90% relative to current usage.

I know that sound hard to believe, and maybe it isn’t even remotely true, but the statement was made on an evening news program. With that idea in their heads, an amazingly extreme reduction in energy usage, why would they worry about difficulties providing everything through wind and sunshine? The committee’s announced solution is to make energy so expensive that more than 10% of today’s usage would be impossible for most people to afford.

G Yowell
Reply to  AndyHce
September 10, 2021 3:43 pm

Ab1395 This bill, the California Climate Crisis Act, would declare the policy of the state both to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, but no later than 2045, and achieve and maintain net negative greenhouse gas emissions thereafter, and to ensure that by 2045, statewide anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to at least 90% below the 1990 levels.

griff
September 10, 2021 12:57 am

The Flex Alerts have been issued due to above-normal temperatures leading to high electricity demand in California and parts of the western US

Or in other words climate change increases demand, there would still be an issue even with all fossil fuel.

Reply to  griff
September 10, 2021 1:39 am

High summer temps are climate change ?
Usually summer temps are higher than these in the rest of the year. Where is the change ?
Data ??

Disputin
Reply to  Krishna Gans
September 10, 2021 4:51 am

What?? You want data??

Reply to  griff
September 10, 2021 1:44 am

Usually warm weather is corellated with a lot of sunshine, so as “Green” state, where is the solar electricity production to fullfill the demand ?
Ahhh, lack of efficiency 😀
And dark evening and nights, somerhing goes wrong in the Californian state 😀

Mark BLR
Reply to  griff
September 10, 2021 3:11 am

Or in other words climate change increases demand …

US Census data for California (in millions, rounded to 2dp).

Year : Population
1990 : 29.76
2000 : 33.87
2010 : 37.25
2020 : 39.54

Increasing the number of people in a state by a third in just 30 years will have no effect whatsoever on its electricity demand.

The only possible “explantation” for any and all changes is, was, and can only ever be, “climate change” …

NB : “Change” = “Bad”.

Mark BLR
Reply to  Mark BLR
September 10, 2021 7:37 am

Just noticed a counter-example of a “good” change :
“explantation” –> “explanation”

Rhs
Reply to  Mark BLR
September 10, 2021 9:08 am

What id like to see as well is MWH available at those same time frames.
I’d hazard a guess that recently, there is less MWH per person available than there used to be.

Mark BLR
Reply to  Rhs
September 11, 2021 6:14 am

What id like to see as well is MWH available at those same time frames.

That’s actually an “interesting” (to me !) point, and I have a bit of “spare time” …

The relevant California Energy Commission website page :
https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/california-electrical-energy-generation

The “Download data for California Electrical Energy Generation 2001 to current, Total Production, by Resource Type” link at the top of that page goes (indirectly) to an Excel file with “Total System Electric Generation” (and “Total In-State Generation” …) data from 2001 to 2020.

The “Go to Years: 1983-2000” link (just above the first table) actually gets you to a second Excel file with “Grand Total: California Generation plus Net Imports (GWh)” (+ “Other Imports” + “Direct Coal Imports” …) data from 1985 to 2018.

Combining that with the US Census data gives the following graph.

NB : Consumption per capita has been steadily declining since at least 1990, just more rapidly since 2008.

California-Electricity_1985-2020_V2.png
Last edited 1 month ago by Mark BLR
MarkW
Reply to  griff
September 10, 2021 4:27 am

griff finally comes out and admits it. In what passes for his mind, any temperature that is above normal is due to climate change.

beng135
September 10, 2021 1:10 am

• Unplug unused items

WTF?

Mark BLR
Reply to  beng135
September 10, 2021 2:41 am

Standby current =/= 0mA, especially for “smart” TVs.

Also note that the density of “iThing chargers” (each of which will draw a non-negligible current just to power the circuitry needed to activate the “Your device is now fully charged” indicator …) per square mile is significantly higher in California than many other states (/ countries).

goldmino
September 10, 2021 2:18 am

There has been a steady light rain for the last 6 hours here in Northern California. These rains will give the firefighters in the area welcome relief from the two large fires in the area. It will be great to see blue sky again in the days ahead. This is about as early a rain as one will ever see for Northern California. I remember the occasional Sept rains which used to be more abundant back in the 1950s/60s.

observa
September 10, 2021 5:57 am

“Consumers are urged to conserve electricity, especially during the late afternoon and early evening, when the grid is most stressed due to higher demand and solar energy production falling.”

There’s only one thing left to do if the deplorables procrastinate and won’t listen to the dooming and conserve-
‘nationalize the fossil fuel industry and ration oil and gas supplies’
Forget plans to lower emissions by 2050 – this is deadly procrastination (msn.com)

Stephen Goldstein
September 10, 2021 8:04 am

4pm to 9pm and avoid using major appliances . . . like electric ranges and ovens.

“Mom! Bologna sandwiches for dinner, again?”

Steve Keppel-Jones
September 10, 2021 9:24 am

I like how they call them “Flex Alerts”, because they sure as shootin’ wouldn’t want to call them “Blackout Alerts” 🙂

ih_fan
Reply to  Steve Keppel-Jones
September 10, 2021 11:09 am

All hail Gavin Newsom, the White Face of Black Outs.

G yowell
September 10, 2021 9:26 am

“Above normal” as a 30-year resident in Sacramento Ca, this normal hot weather for this time of year.

Hunter Paalman
Reply to  G yowell
September 10, 2021 10:45 am

Dittos on that ! I got to Sacto. in 1939 and spent k-12 there and the next ten years schoolin’ up in Pasadena and PaloAlto. The past 60 years were lived in the Walnut Creek where the number of really hot and really, really hot days have been diminishing. Same can be said about sanity in general and politics in particular. Oh, and let’s build a dam or two or three and RO sea water at the coast. Perhaps also build frack-gas topping power plants and stand-by capacity. But what do I know?

Last edited 1 month ago by Hunter Paalman
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