[UPDATE: As many users noted, I posted last month’s update in error. I have added the current update on top.~charles]
UPDATE2: This simple repost has been troublesome, I’ve updated the graph image to be locally hosted rather than hot-linked….which fails. I apologize to our readers. – Anthony
UAH Global Temperature Update for August, 2021:+0.17 deg. C.
September 1st, 2021
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for August, 2021 was +0.17 deg. C, down slightly from the July, 2021 value of +0.20 deg. C.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 has now dropped slightly, at +0.13 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).
Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 20 months are:
YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST
2020 01 0.42 0.44 0.40 0.52 0.57 -0.22 0.41
2020 02 0.59 0.74 0.45 0.63 0.17 -0.27 0.20
2020 03 0.35 0.42 0.27 0.53 0.81 -0.95 -0.04
2020 04 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.35 -0.70 0.63 0.78
2020 05 0.42 0.43 0.41 0.53 0.07 0.84 -0.20
2020 06 0.30 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.26 0.54 0.97
2020 07 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.28 0.44 0.27 0.26
2020 08 0.30 0.34 0.26 0.45 0.35 0.30 0.24
2020 09 0.40 0.42 0.39 0.29 0.69 0.24 0.64
2020 10 0.38 0.53 0.22 0.24 0.86 0.95 -0.01
2020 11 0.40 0.52 0.27 0.17 1.45 1.09 1.28
2020 12 0.15 0.08 0.21 -0.07 0.29 0.44 0.13
2021 01 0.12 0.34 -0.09 -0.08 0.36 0.50 -0.52
2021 02 0.20 0.32 0.08 -0.14 -0.65 0.07 -0.27
2021 03 -0.01 0.13 -0.14 -0.29 0.59 -0.78 -0.79
2021 04 -0.05 0.05 -0.15 -0.28 -0.02 0.02 0.29
2021 05 0.08 0.14 0.03 0.06 -0.41 -0.04 0.02
2021 06 -0.01 0.31 -0.32 -0.14 1.44 0.63 -0.76
2021 07 0.20 0.33 0.07 0.13 0.58 0.43 0.80
2021 08 0.17 0.27 0.08 0.07 0.33 0.83 -0.02
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for August, 2021 should be available within the next few days here.
The global and regional monthly anomalies for the various atmospheric layers we monitor should be available in the next few days at the following locations:
Lower Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
Mid-Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt
Tropopause: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt
Lower Stratosphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt
THE OLD UPDATE BELOW
August 2nd, 2021 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for July, 2021 was +0.20 deg. C, up from the June, 2021 value of -0.01 deg. C.
REMINDER: We have changed the 30-year averaging period from which we compute anomalies to 1991-2020, from the old period 1981-2010. This change does not affect the temperature trends.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).
Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 19 months are:
YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST
2020 01 0.42 0.44 0.40 0.52 0.57 -0.22 0.41
2020 02 0.59 0.74 0.45 0.63 0.17 -0.27 0.20
2020 03 0.35 0.42 0.27 0.53 0.81 -0.95 -0.04
2020 04 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.35 -0.70 0.63 0.78
2020 05 0.42 0.43 0.41 0.53 0.07 0.84 -0.20
2020 06 0.30 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.26 0.54 0.97
2020 07 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.28 0.44 0.27 0.26
2020 08 0.30 0.34 0.26 0.45 0.35 0.30 0.24
2020 09 0.40 0.42 0.39 0.29 0.69 0.24 0.64
2020 10 0.38 0.53 0.22 0.24 0.86 0.95 -0.01
2020 11 0.40 0.52 0.27 0.17 1.45 1.09 1.28
2020 12 0.15 0.08 0.21 -0.07 0.29 0.44 0.13
2021 01 0.12 0.34 -0.09 -0.08 0.36 0.50 -0.52
2021 02 0.20 0.32 0.08 -0.14 -0.65 0.07 -0.27
2021 03 -0.01 0.13 -0.14 -0.29 0.59 -0.78 -0.79
2021 04 -0.05 0.05 -0.15 -0.28 -0.02 0.02 0.29
2021 05 0.08 0.14 0.03 0.06 -0.41 -0.04 0.02
2021 06 -0.01 0.31 -0.32 -0.14 1.44 0.63 -0.76
2021 07 0.20 0.33 0.07 0.13 0.58 0.43 0.80
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for July, 2021 should be available within the next few days here.
The global and regional monthly anomalies for the various atmospheric layers we monitor should be available in the next few days at the following locations:
Lower Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
Mid-Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt
Tropopause: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt
Lower Stratosphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt
July data? It is September?
Mean anomaly for first seven months of 2020: 37.9 C. For same months of 2021: 7.6 C.
Global cooling trend since February 2016 steepening downslope, due in large part to Las Niñas.
That’s a very worrying anomaly. What base period are you using?
Roy has switched to the new baseline, but it makes no difference, as the prior anomalies are brought in line. Shape of the trailing average is the same.
You’re saying the anomalies are over 7°C and were over 30°C last year. I’ve no idea where you are getting these values from. The actual anomaly for August 2021 was 0.17°C using the new base period and 0.30°C using the old. For August 2020 it was 0.30°C or 0.43°C depending on base period.
I got them from the data in this post, plus the August anomaly.
Please check my arithmetic. Add up eight months and divide by eight. But just eyeballing it, you can see that the averages are at least ballpark. High figures last year, but lower, to include negative, for this year.
As noted, UAH uses the updated 1991-2020 baseline.
I think you’ve got a decimal point in the wrong place. The mean of the first 8 months of 2020 is 0.369°C, and for 2021 it’s 0.088°C.
Yes. Decimal point is wrong. Still an over four-fold difference.
Four-fold “difference”? I’m confused. The difference is 0.281. Suppose next year is 0.281°C cooler. Then the anomaly would be negative at -0.193 °C for a ratio of -0.88/0.193 = -0.456.
That makes no sense. What you you trying to demonstrate?
36/9 = 4.
This year’s average will be far lower than last year’s.
And if the cooling keeps up, how will you describe next year’s ratio? In centi-degrees 36/9 will become 9/(-19).
Last year was boosted by El Niño of 2019-20, while this year was depressed by La Niña, with another possibly shaping up.
If today is 4°C, and tomorrow is 16°C, is tomorrow four times hotter?
Or since 4 degrees is not what anyone would call hot, is it actually four times less cold?
Such semantics make no sense.
Neither does using such language to compare anomalies.
I agree with Rick Werme.
Yes, but…. If today is 4°C, that’s really 39.2°F and if tomorrow is 16°C, that’s really 60.8°F, which means 60.8/39.2 = 4.
Of course, if we were real scientists, we’d be doing this in kelvins.
With August, 36.9 C last vs. 8.78 C this year.
John Tillman ????????
0.378 *not* 37.8
0.076 *not* 7.6
I think you have a bit too much Global Warming going on.
Some like it hot.
In hundredths of degrees C.
Definitely going to one of the hottest years ever…wait for it…
Only in the Adjustosphere.
What I want is the updates for Pacific and Atlantic ocean temps. Those date back to May!
August update is over on Dr. Roy’s website. Aug. anomaly is down from 0.2 C to 0.17 C, and a 0.13 C/decade trend, down from 0.14 C/decade. This should extend the latest pause.
Pause will be 2 months longer than it was in July, but still 2 months shorter than it was reported to be in June.
August temp is +0.17
Error bars? Map? So we can see where they were guessing the temps because there are no thermometers in the Amazon, central Africa, or Australia.
This is UAH6, temperature estimates of the bulk atmosphere for the entire globe, except for the poles. This is why I believe Dr. Roy Spencer, not the NOAA/NASA/HadCRUT surface dog’s breakfasts. Satellites, radiosondes and ARGO are the only near scientific-quality temperature series. And the manipulators add 0.12 C to ARGO estimates. Real scientific of them.
These are satellite observations.
The measurements are made around the 273K altitude in the atmosphere. They have some delayed linkage to the surface temperature but the trend is a good proxy for rising CO2.
There is no man made temperature measurement system that can measure the global surface temperature as precisely as it is controlled by the thermostatic processes that limit energy uptake and release from the oceans.
Just know that the long term trend is for cooling in the Southern Hemisphere and warming in the Northern Hemisphere. Overall energy uptake is in long term decline for the next 12kyr.
Measured ocean warming is the result of reduced net ocean surface evaporation slowing the circulation of deep water from the poles to the tropics – it is warming but caused by reduced cooling rather than increased warming through the surface.
Yes – what are the margins of error and how are they calculated?
So could someone explain why it’s wrong to ask for margins of error and the method of calculating them? Or do we simply have some trolls down voting?
Looks like WUWT linked to the July report. Here is Dr. Spencer’s post for August.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/09/uah-global-temperature-update-for-august-20210-17-deg-c/
We can conceded that over time the climate in Tucson, AZ is warmer than that in Boise, ID. It’s also true that these local climates warm and cool in roughy 30 year patterns. But “global average temperature” is some ridiculous proxy dreamt up specifically for the global cooling/global warming/climate change scam. No human, animal, or plant has lived in global average temperature in the history of Earth.
“But “global average temperature” is some ridiculous proxy dreamt up specifically for the global cooling/global warming/climate change scam.”
That’s right.
Here is Meerisportal’s current August sea ice extent. I would bet that the minimum will arrive early this season, maybe by the end of this week. …
It’s liable to be the fourth highest minimum since 2007. Only 2009, 2013 and 2014 are likely to bottom out higher. Depends upon when the melt ends.
Arctic trend is flat since 2007 and up since 2012.
Yesterday, Antarctic sea ice extent was the fourth highest in the satellite record since 1979. Only 2006, 2013 and 2014 were higher at that point in growth.
Trend is up from 1979.
No criticism goldminor, but the Arctic sea ice satellite record goes back to 1972. It shows the earlier years as having much less ice than that with the record beginning in 1979. CliSciFi won’t admit to the earlier data.
The downward trend in Arctic sea ice ended in 2007. That is about when the cyclical sea ice downward trend flattened.
The Antarctic sea ice extent has been stable-to-growing for decades.
CliSciFi won’t admit facts and obfuscates reality on the ground.
Oops, it appears that someone at WUWT posted the Roy Spencer’s July UAH update instead of the August Update. This July update was originally published here at WUWT on August 2nd:
UAH Global Temperature Update for July, 2021: +0.20 deg. C – Watts Up With That?
The August UAH global temperature update at Roy Spencer’s website is here:
UAH Global Temperature Update for August, 2021:+0.17 deg. C. « Roy Spencer, PhD (drroyspencer.com)
I suspect the problem will be corrected soon.
Sorry, but I don’t have that capacity to make corrections here at WUWT any longer.
Regards,
Bob
I could fix it, but I think it is better to just let this go and make a NEW post for the August update instead.
I will let the Administrator know about this.
August anomaly according to UAH was 0.17°C compared to the 1991 – 2020 base period. This makes it the 37th coldest August in the UAH data set, and the coldest since 2018. The “Monckton Pause” now starts January 2015.
Using the old base period of 1981-2010 this would be 0.30°C.
The trend would still be 0.13 C/decade. With that trend relying on a Super El Nino at the end, it does not bode well for the CAGW meme.
Now I’m going to show something with not exactly scientific approach:
Unholy alliance between solar activity periodicity and Global UAH quasi-periodicity, but I omitted first 10 years of data because it doesn’t fit.
Not the way I expected it (note SSN numbers are on inverted scale)
Here is the graph with the SSN on inverted right hand scale
Vuk – sea surface temperatures are saltatory but generally don’t follow SSN. The jumps are usually of 6-8 years.
Additional comment:
As the SC25 progresses towards its maximum extrapolation would suggest that during the next 5-6 years the global UAH should fall or at least not rise much from the current values.
There is a wide divergence in the GAT trend estimates since 1979 the beginning of the satellite record, UAH is the closest to the global SST trend.
Not only is UAH trend almost exactly the same. The temperature swings align very nicely with the SST data. The UAH data lags by about 4-6 months.
https://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:1979/to/plot/uah6/from:1979/to/trend/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1979/to/offset:-0.35/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1979/to/offset:-0.35/trend
This demonstrates that it is the oceans driving the atmosphere as most scientists always assumed until the climate cult appeared.
It is an a peculiar observation. UAH says land is warming 50% faster than the ocean while at the same time the UAH trend matches the SST trends.
New research by Will Happer and William van Wijngaarden on saturation of the “greenhouse effect” – more sophisticated than previous such studies – could “ki11 the climate emergency”:
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2021/09/01/greenhouse-saturation-research-could-kill-the-climate-emergency/
I’m a bit confused. Aren’t we continually told that global warming is accelerating, that it’s controlled by CO2 levels, sea level rise is accelerating, you know the drill?
If all that is true, shouldn’t I (a mere reader of all that tripe, not a climate ‘expert’) expect the linear warming trend from 1979 go _up_ over time, not down?
As the starting point for that trend line seems fixed at 1979, doesn’t any downwards change in the trend indicate that the rate of warming _isn’t_ accelerating, and as time goes on that the trend will get ever-more immune to short-term cooling periods?
When I see those graphs of CO2 in the atmosphere, I see the curve getting ever-steeper, so if CO2 is the control knob, shouldn’t I expect the trend line to go up?
Climate science says that global warming/cooling of the atmosphere is controlled by agents that perturb the planetary energy imbalance and all agents the modulate the transfer of energy to/from the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and land. CO2 is but one among many agents that are in play.
An acceptable method for determining the rate of change of the trend is to do an exponential regression and seeing if the x^2 term is positive or negative. The x^1 term can decrease even though the x^2 term remains positive. For the UAH dataset the x^2 term is very slightly positive. It is low enough that we can just call it neutral.
Regarding CO2 and the trendline…the answer no because as explained above CO2 is not the only thing that modulates the temperature in the lower troposphere. The only thing increasing CO2 does is yield a positive radiative force. But the heat uptake of the climate system and eventually the atmosphere is dictated by the net of all agents that yield radiative forcings. For example, if CO2 is caused +1.0 W/m2 of RF and aerosols produced -1.0 W/m2 of RF then the net RF, assuming all other things remain equal, is 0 W/m2. Furthermore, even if the net RF were positive that accumulated energy could be getting buffered somewhere other than the atmosphere like the cryosphere.
I can’t find anything in there to disagree with. 🙂
The last thirty year warming period ended about 2004. Since that time there is an obvious flattening of the temperature curve. Much is made of the increased temperature reading of 2016 but the temperature readings of 2008 and 2012 are further below the 2004 reading than the reading for 2016 is above the 2004 reading. The most recent temperature reading is lower than the 2004 reading. Thus, there is no indication of rising temperatures but rather strong reinforcement for the assessment that a period of pause in warming is happening.
Exponential regression says the x^2 term is slightly positive. It’s not positive enough to say the UAH warming trend is accelerating, but it’s definitely not decelerating.
My eyes and the temperature record going back to the 1880’s tell me that we are in the middle of a pause period that began around 2004 and will last for about thirty years, exponential regression or not.
The pause may extend for several more years, but I don’t see how it can extend for 30 years given the +0.8 W/m2 planetary energy imbalance.