Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Renew Economy claims my native Australia, at 1.4C warming above pre-industrial, stands on the brink of the dreaded 1.5C threshold. My question, when should we expect to see something unusually bad happen?
Scientists issue desperate climate warning: Australia already at 1.4°C
Michael Mazengarb 9 August 2021
Scientists have delivered a stark warning to the world about the impacts of climate change, saying that extreme heat, flooding, and drought are being observed in every region of the world and that these will increase in their intensity extreme unless rapid action is taken to reduce emissions.
…
The report – the first of its kind in eight years – “unequivocally” confirms that global warming is occurring, attributed to human-caused increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases.
…
The shocking news for Australia – already criticised for doing little on climate change – is that average temperatures have already risen 1.4°C.
The authors say that the current and future impacts of global warming are now well understood with unprecedented levels of certainty thanks to improved climate observations and advances in the scientific understanding of the human influence on the world’s climate.
“This report is a reality check,” IPCC Working Group I co-chair Valérie Masson-Delmotte said. “We now have a much clearer picture of the past, present and future climate, which is essential for understanding where we are headed, what can be done, and how we can prepare.”
…
Read more: https://reneweconomy.com.au/scientists-issue-desperate-climate-warning-australia-already-at-1-4c/
Climate alarmists are taking a big narrative risk by bringing us to the brink of the magic threshold. Author Stephen King once offered the following advice for fiction writers in his story and essay collection Danse Macabre – advice which I believe climate alarmists will soon regret not heeding;
What’s behind the door or lurking at the top of the stairs is never as frightening as the door or the staircase itself. And because of this, comes the paradox: the artistic work of horror is almost always a disappointment. It is the classic no-win situation. You can scare people with the unknown for a long, long time (the classic example, as Bill Nolan also pointed out, is the Jacques Tourneur film with Dana Andrews, Curse of the Demon but sooner or later, as in poker, you have to turn your down cards up. You have to open the door and show the audience what’s behind it. And if what happens to be behind it is a bug, not ten but a hundred feet tall, the audience heaves a sigh of relief (or utters a scream of relief) and thinks, “A bug a hundred feet tall is pretty horrible, but I can deal with that. I was afraid it might be a thousand feet tall”….
Sooner or later the hero has to reach the top of the staircase, and face the monster. 1.4C warming must become 1.5C warming, tipping points have to tip. And when nothing much happens, when life goes on as normal, what then? How will alarmists deal with the narrative plot dead end they have created for themselves?
Stephen King himself sadly appears to have fallen for climate alarmist narratives. But who knows, perhaps in time the great author will will recognise the climate crisis for what it is – amateurish, poorly written horror fiction.
The 1.5C thing is about global mean temperature
I don’t think anyone missed the 1.5 refers to global mean temperatures, but if the argument is that 1.5 worldwide is problematic, then looking at a place that’s already at 1.4 should be insightful into what could happen. And the answer is, almost nothing bad and definitely some good (greening).
“then looking at a place that’s already at 1.4 should be insightful into what could happen.”
No:
+1.4C locally now is not “insightful” as to what impacts will occur locally when the whole globe is averaged out at that.
?itok=V9wA5N5U
The Arctic is currently warming at 2x the global average.
So what you’re saying is that CO2 didn’t specially affect the Arctic compared to the global average from pre-industrial times until a couple of decades ago? But now it is doing so?
Couple you please explain why that is, and show your math?
Thanks,
w.
“Couple you please explain why that is, and show your math?”
Yes – that is what the data shows.
And you well know that the +ve radiative forcing of CO2 didn’t really break away from the -ve ones of aerosols that followed the resurgence of industry after the 2WW until the 70’s and since then CO2 forcing has tripled.
Feedbacks Willis.
You know – the reduction in sea-ice extent and warm open waters during Autumn and early winter.
Look up the Atlantification of the Barents FI.
And why should I show “my maths” for observations, that others have made?
They speak for themselves.
I simply stated, as does the science, and as do observations, that the Arctic is warming at 2x the rate of the GMST.
Do you disagree?
If so please “show your maths”
Thanks
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/phoc/48/8/jpo-d-18-0003.1.xml
Anthony Banton August 11, 2021 1:50 am
I do love people telling me what I do and don’t know.
Your own graph shows that total forcing has been rising since 1800, with an acceleration starting around 1950. Despite that, the Arctic didn’t start warming faster than the globe until the last two decades, and the Antarctic hasn’t warmed at all.
That’s what I know. What I don’t know is why …
w.
Since the Arctic ignored CO2 until after 2000, sounds like the Arctic has been warming faster due to the urban heat island effect of all the extra scientists and researchers and their bases, equipment and roads.
Feedbacks.
You know – melting sea-ice largely.
Doesn’t happen in synchrony with radiative forcing.
Except melting sea ice isn’t a positive feedback, it’s a negative one.
At those angles, as much sun reflects off the water as reflects off ice. When the ice is older and has gotten dirty, water may reflect even more sunlight.
Ice is an insulator, less ice means more heat from the water gets radiated to space.
Of course, 1.5 C warming in Australia will only impact Australia if is is also 1.5 C warmer in Spain.
How silly of me, I forgot the logic of climate change.
Ross McKitrick wrote this in April 2019:
And so we get reports with charts and graphs to tell us about the changes we didn’t notice. Remember last summer when the media hyped a report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warning that warming 1.5 degrees Celsius (compared to preindustrial times) was a disaster threshold we must avoid crossing at all costs? Now we learn that Canada warmed 1.7 degrees Celsius since 1948. Far from leaving the country a smoking ruin, we got wealthier and healthier, our population soared, and life improved by almost any measure of welfare you can imagine. If only every so-called catastrophe was like this.
His article: https://financialpost.com/opinion/ross-mckitrick-hold-the-panic-canada-just-warmed-1-7-degrees-and-thrived
My synopsis: https://rclutz.com/2019/04/15/climate-hearsay/
1.5 not scary enough. Just a second, we’ll homogenise the historical records again, & make it 2.5. Will that do the trick?
Weather though is always local.
If 1.5C is bad for the planet, then by definition, it is bad for individual locations on the planet.
Conversely, if there are no places on the planet where 1.5C creates a problem, then by definition, 1.5C doesn’t create a problem for the planet.
There you go trying to apply logic to really, really scary stuff. This is serious. =or- 1.5C is TWICE all it takes to trip your thermostat or AC to ON.
Possibly.
I once changed the settings on my air con by 1.6C and nearly died. Shocking.
The point being made here is that within the article being discussed the author claims that Australia has increased 1.4C from ‘Pre-Industrial’ (whatever that really means) and that…
Well actually the article in question uses a lot of word salad to give the impression that something related to 1.4 and the extra 0.1 and the end of the world. Despite the click bait headline there doesn’t seem to be any scientists quoted as saying actually giving warnings related to this magical 1.4C Australian mark.
Everything else is just selected quotes from the last IPPC novel repeating vague generalisations about general vaguely defined and hard to prove (or disprove) events.
Smoke and mirrors.
Pre industrial? Is that MWP? Roman WP? Or the Eemian?
All of which were warmer than today.
It is probably based on the ACORN-SATv2 homogenized data (1910 to present) for surface air temperatures, which is known (unequivocal) to be full of errors, it is not even self consistent, errors (most of which exaggerate warming) can be seen easily by comparing data for a station with its near neighbors. Most of the errors arise as invalid temperature corrections.
https://diymetanalysis.wordpress.com/acorn-sat/
you’re supposed to ignore the bad magician’s failed sleight of hand and not ruin the trick for the children.
It would appear that the “pre-industrial” period they rely on is an average of select temps between 1850 & 1900.
Now during that time the Stevenson Screen was implemented (1864) & further modified 1884) – but critically did not become the gold standard in much of the world until after 1910.
SO measurement are skewed strongly towards a euro-centric world temperature – which was only just at the end of the LIA following on from the Maunder Minimum, when Temps had been historically cold.
As I recall the original goal posts were set at 2C above present temperatures in the 1990s based on zero evidence that 2C was of any real significance. But it became clear that the observational data was not going to support such an increase so they moved the goal post to ‘pre-industrial’ temperature which instantly produced about 1C of warming and thus allowed for only 1C more. This had the additional advantage of reference to a time when there was not reliable instrumental data available so they could claim any baseline temperature they wanted. But the data didn’t cooperate and by 2015 they moved the goal posts again to 1.5C. So now we’re almost to their arbitrary meaningless limit and nothing has happened that hasn’t happened regularly over the last several millennia. Me thinks they’ve outsmarted themselves.
I think “pre-industrial” is considered to be around the year 1750.
They moved the “official” pre-industrial date from 1850 to 1750 in order to add a couple of tenths of a degree to existing (post-adjustment) warming levels. This is the only logical purpose that we can infer for the change. It was a tactical mistake because we are now almost at the dreaded 1.5° and the world hasn’t ended. The Emperor’s new clothes are starting to look a bit translucent.
However, with the enthusiastic support of the media, they avoided painting themselves into a corner by declaring that the world is actually (in the early stages of) ending …. NOW!!!. Now it’s fire and floods. In a few weeks, the Atlantic hurricane season will be on us again. I predict a torrent of publicity for “unprecedented” wind speeds and storm damage on the US east coast and in the Caribbean. Before the actual landfalls of course, in case they turn out to not be that bad. “Unprecedented” in this context actually means “worse than last year”.
They have achieved the impossible – they got covid-19 off the front page!
And, as emergency backup, we now have (evidence-free) predictions of the “imminent collapse of the Gulf Stream” and the return of Younger Dryas conditions to western Europe. Don’t throw away your winter clothes yet!
1750 had a world population estimated at 350million! This is down from ~ 1 billion during Medieval Warm Period after a loss of 30% or so from the Black Death in 1348-1351 (which also decimated Asia) and the rest from the Little Ice Age cold and famine. It was pretty puny industrial beginnings to to set goalposts that spent 25 of the last 30yrs in1950.
It’s getting warmer – great!
No, it’s “climate heating” now.
Do try to keep up.
Either +1.4C is not that bad at all, even good, or +1.4C is fake.
I vote fake.
NASA and NOAA show the year 2016 to be 1.0C above their global baseline, and the temperatures have cooled about 0.5C since that time, so I have a hard time believing Australia is approximately 1.0C warmer than the rest of the world. it’s winter time in Austrailia, isn’t it?
Sounds like data manipulation to me. Of course, I may be a little overly sensitive to such things. 🙂
Fake
Of course it is – we’ve grown up with the comment that ‘1C cooling will send us into another ice age’ – created some time just before the global cooling scare of the 70’s. So, the climate enthusiasts have had to go one better – obviously 1.5C hotter is scarier than 1C colder.
“Scientists issue desperate climate warning: Australia already at 1.4°C”
Perhaps these so called “Scientists” should tell China to cut it out, as it is burning Australia.
What happens at +1.5 ? Will Australia’s remaining coal stocks auto-combust or what?
Yes! When the temperature is at +1.499999, everything will be just fine. But when it gets to +1.500000 all hell will break loose. It will be a disaster of Biblical proportions. Fire and brimstone raining down from the sky, rivers and seas boiling, earthquakes and volcanoes, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!
Doncha just hate it when a decimal lands in the wrong spot.
Or you forget to proof-read?
Fixed the decimal. Also, you can edit your comments. Hover over the text, click on the gear that appears in the lower right corner, click “Edit”.
w.
When I first came out to Australia in 1974 from the UK I found it a tad warm but then I was living in Brisbane Queensland. In 1980 I moved to Sydney where I’ve lived ever since and since that time until now I have not noticed much of a difference temperature wise apart from 1998 which was the super El Nino event and a very hot summer.
So if were are only 0.1C away from the tipping point bring it on I say.
Rex, I’ve lived mostly in Adelaide for 67.705 years and nothing has changed. I am seriously dreading the extra 0.1 degree. We are expecting record crops after other recent record years but sadly I guess this will all change with the extra 0.1 degC and we will all die hungry in a fire and all our ashes will be washed away in a flood.
It really isn’t ‘well’: look at the drought/heatwave/cyclone pattern.
Griff you should know better than to trust BBC coverage of photogenic problems. Droughts and heatwaves and cyclones are a normal part of our violent weather cycle, and have been since before settlement. Most of us were not significantly affected by last year’s fires. Australia is a big place.
Eric Worral, please correct me is I am wrong, but I read somewhere online that the Australian fires were a result of conservationists/environmentalists demanding local governments ban the clearing of natural debris such as fallen branches & leaves, & once dried out create excellent fuel for fires? There was even a possibility that some were started deliberately! Thank you in anticipation.
There is definitely a problem with greens opposing burn offs. But there are other factors, for example our pyromaniac birds of prey have been photographed deliberately setting fires to flush out easy food. And of course our vicious rain cycle, during a hard drought its pretty nearly inevitable a fire will start somewhere.
Australia has their fair share of firebugs and on the increase. Not sure if it’s associated with extreme climate activists.
The irony is that local police and authorities actually know who most of these people are but seem to not do much about them.
Knowing who they are and proving it in court are two different things.
I don’t know if it is the same in Australia, but here in the US, DA’s aren’t bothering to charge and try what they consider to be minor offenses. And even when they do, judges have been given little to no punishment.
So unless someone dies, or an entire town gets burned down, it’s not worth it to go after arsonists.
What you would find is if a greenie was found to have started a fire and they get a lenient judge from say inner city Melbourne then they will basically be fined $1.
A man in Victoria was fined AU$50,000 by the local council for clearing brush/bush/trees etc on his property some years ago and when the bushfires ripped through his property was the only one of a few that survived.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/fined-for-illegal-clearing-family-now-feel-vindicated-20090212-85bd.html
Didn’t I read recently about unusually cold weather somewhere in Australia?
Mid Coast NSW – definitely, it’s been a cold winter here, I am almost out of firewood again, second truckload, about half a truckload more than I used last year.
Last summer wasn’t that hot but this winter I am feeling it now so much so I wear two pairs of socks, two jumpers and have two heaters on pretty much all the time.
Now hold on a second, griffter. I thought Climate Change ™ was causing flooding in Germany and the UK last week? Australia’s a lot wetter than it was in 1901. It’s always been a dry, hot place.
What with all the failed crops, people collapsing of heat exhaustion, and the death, destruction, and mayhem that we are all experiencing everywhere on the planet, won’t you please tell us in which time period would you prefer to live your life?
[__] Benign low CO2 1675-1750
[__] “Dangerous” CO2 1950-2025
Griff, mate, we keep inviting you to submit an article backed up by real evidence but to date, you haven’t bothered
Time to put up or shut up on these “problems”
Another instance of griff trying to pretend that history started 20 years ago.
griff August 10, 2021 3:03 am
Griff, you really should know that scientists have little confidence that human influence has affected trends in meteorological droughts in most regions.
There is also little confidence in projected precipitation changes in the South American and Australian-Maritime Continent monsoons.
Finally, there is little confidence in long-term (multi-decadal to centennial) trends in the frequency of all-category tropical cyclones.
In other words … it’s called “weather”.
w.
What we always need a stupid Brit telling us how things are in our own country.
The pattern of these events look typical to me, y’know, someone who actually lives in Australia.
What? Every single location in the nation is 1.4 degrees warmer than it used to be every single moment of every single day? Or some are much warmer and others less so?
Tell you what. Name one single location. Tell us what its climate used to be and what it is now.
Once we have that I’m happy to talk.
Most of Australia was warmer 100 y ago , but that just because they did not know how to use thermometers at the time.
So I hear. Maybe they were better at reading rain gauges and anemometers.
I’m happy if somebody picks a date 30 years ago to start. We can talk about 100 years ago later on.
We were a lot shorter then and the thermometers were positioned too high and we didn’t understand parallax. No chance of getting it right.
The Bureau of Meteorology does not use historic weather records data earlier than 1910 because the warmer conditions ruin their creatively accounted modelling of a warming trend.
You hit the nail on the head, Forrest. All climate is local.
when 0.0 was the LIA and the Ice Age cometh with neo-glaciation, no one should listen to the IPCC. In practical terms, China, India, and Russia sure as hell aren’t listening to the IPCC while the industrialized West destroys itself.
The fatal mistake for the middle class in the West is for it to not realize the Climate Change scam being rammed down our throats has nothing at all to do with climate or science. Like COVID lockdowns and masks, we’re just supposed to accept it all because our “betters” tell us to.
I don’t accept “pronouncements” on any subject. The only presentation that works is a detailed description of what is being studied and how.
Without a detailed report you ain’t go nothin’.
A 1.5°C increase from when it was naturally cold is akin to worrying about the increase in temperature from winter to summer of from night to day.
A New York retiree moving to Florida is hoping for about 10 deg C of personal life warming. Or a wealthy London businessman moving to southern Spain or the south of France. I personally live in southern Arizona because New England climate sucks the Big Loydo.
In my opinion, it’s the combination of high humidity with whatever the temperature is on the East coast that ruins one’s comfort and makes the West the best.
Point well taken.
Here today (Front Range Colorado), the difference between the low and the high temp will be about 20°C. In the summer, a comfortable temperature range outside is usually reached sometime in the morning and sometime in the evening.
Not surprisingly, in the summer, AC is used to lower the indoor temperature during daytime. In the midst of winter, heating is on nearly continuously. From the energy usage for heating/cooling perspective, it needs to be hotter outside on average to reach the optimum temperature.
As COVID doesn’t allow aussies to fly to Bali or Phuket we need to burn fossil fuel somehow.
We are buying 4x4s like crazy
What’s the use of a ute if you’re not allowed out of the house ?
Some of us are. Only half the population is under house arrest. 100% of us are detained and prevented from leaving the country, however. Apart from politicians and celebrities, apparently…
What is happening in Australia is unlawful in the guise of a state of emergency. New South Wales relies on a Ct value of 40 in the PCR “test”, which basically means they can find whatever trace of DNA they are looking for. We have about 100,000 getting tested daily with resulting positive case numbers of less than 400.
Thousands are queuing up to get jabbed. People who work in the health sector are being told “No jab. No job”. There are rumors that other employers in other sectors are considering the same.
The acts of the CHO in NSW are criminal, in breach of not only the Nuremberg Act of 1947 but other acts such as The Privacy Act. Our CHO is a doctor as she is constantly referred to. Trouble is her doctorate was in law, not medicine.
People who work in the health sector are being told “No jab. No job”
The only way that can possibly be stopped is mass disobedience but I don’t see that happening in Australia. I don’t even see it happening in US really.
“Apart from politicians and celebrities, apparently….” noticed that – money will always find a way.
Utes are good things to talk about when you’re locked inside drinking beer
We are constantly told we must reduce CO2 levels. I believe the global average atmospheric carbon dioxide level, in 2019, was 409.8 parts per million (ppm) ± 0.1 ppm. We are also told that Carbon dioxide levels today are higher than at any point in at least the past 800,000 years.
I have searched but I am unable to find an answer to what level the UK’s reported contribution of £1.4 Trillion to CC will help reduce the levels of CO2. Will it be plant starvation levels of 100, 150, 200, or perhaps 250 ppm? Or will it, more realistically, be 405ppm?
Can someone, possibly at the IPCC, let us know the target figure (or does this totally depend on the Trillions of Dollars they need to top up their coffers and, of course, much increased salaries for the UN’s outstanding contributions to CC)?
How much CO2 (pollution!!) was saved in the depths of the global lockdown or did atmospheric levels actually keep on rising?
Well we burnt less but there was not detectable difference at MLO.
Truth be told, the case can be made that higher CO2 concentrations are better for everyone and everything.
Back in the 1960’s a book proved that by the 1980’s we would all be starving to death due to the projected increase in population. The increase happened, the starvation did not. The reason – the increase in CO2 increased plant growth!
And once carbon capture is a “paying” endeavor who will determine the stopping point? When CO2 is at 200 ppm! 150 ppm?
The next crisis will be the resulting crop production decrease that further threatens the world’s food supply.
You can’t make this $hit up…. oh, I guess they did.
That’s it – we’re all gunna fry. (:-(
Queenslanders before Tasmanians?
No, no, nothing will change in the tropics, but those poor Taz divils will suffer warmer nights and winters.
How I would like your words to be spoken by a politician in a position of influence.
Those roos are such posers. Mind you, if I had a nutsack like that I’d probably be standing on a rocky outcrop at dusk, profiling against the setting sun too.
There’s a gourd for that.
Buy a codpice. If you are strapped for cash just drop a potato in you drawers. Be sure, though, that you drop it in the front. A potato in the rear of your pants leads to many misapprehensions.
abc all over it like crap on a blanket today
typical of them
rather a LOT more going on globally to be spending and or worrying about
reckon most also feel that way too
Quote:”How will alarmists deal with the narrative plot dead end they have created for themselves?”
A: They will do what they have always done and what created this Climate Hideousity in the first place
They will fill their faces with sugar and in their resultant bloated and semi-comatose states, crash out on the sofa to waste a full 25% of their lives watching TV – perfectly self-brainwashing themselves into beleiving that Everything Has Never Been Better.
Who could argue with that – cozy, fuzzy warm easy-living with vast amounts of Dopamine circulating inside their heads
And in the utterly dysfunctional mind-state that the sugar creates, the actual worse things are, the better they are.
That’s how Chronic Depressives and all of Western Society now operates – in a Dopamine Dream.
Alcoholics are Chronically Depressed and just like drunks do, they will come out fighting when their drug supply is threatened –
Even if the production of same is what’s causing the observed Climate Changes – which are in fact (haha) nothing more than a dessication/drying of the landscape (farms, cities and deforestation. YES, that means deliberate burning to try prevent more burning)
Understand now why our ‘evolved diet’ of Saturated Fat fell out of favour?
Fat is a self-limiting food and does not work to release Dopamine
There is a reason for that. In the happy and dream-like state Dopamine induces, you easily fall foul to ‘predators’
And in these modern times, the Sabre-Tooth Tiger is replaced by frosts, floods, heatwaves, coldwaves and <add-your-own-fave-waves>
Sorry Australia, but when you insist on flogging a daed horse by growing wheat at one tonne per acre, You Are Inviting The Tiger To Your Door
It’s not the Average Climate that does the damage – it’s the random unexpected predator – IOW: Weather
I can show you very good data that have Australia warming by 0.6 degrees C between about 1900 and now. The official claim is more like 1.4 deg C per century, but that does not match more rigorous estimates we have done. Do readers here want to see such data?
I can show that our valued Great Barrier Reef has its sea temperatures measured in 1871 on a scientific survey. The same temperatures are still there today. That is, the GBR is in peril only if you ignore this old temperature measurement set. Are readers here interested in such data?
I can provide data showing that heat waves in most of Australia’s 6 State capital cities, home to more than 70% of our national population, have not become longer, hotter and more frequent, as the official line insists. Data going back to the 1960s. Are readers here interested in seeing that data?
I can show data that Australia’s homogenized data set named ACORN-SAT has artificially cooled the past to produce false warming trends. A very detailed analysis that utterly refutes glib claims that Acorn has a neutral effect. Are readers interested in seeing the data?
It seems to me that many readers of WUWT are here for the occasional fly-by comment to show their verbal skills more than their science skills. I can accept that many bloggers here are dismayed by the poor science behind the IPCC reports. Why, just try to find a figure for the very fundamental climate sensitivity relating CO2 and temperature, still missing in action after 40 years of expensive research.
But, I want bloggers to do their own research for their own locations around the world. I do not want people to avoid studies from Australia that I mention, because Australia “might be different”.
So, shall I write a WUWT article that shows these various pieces of data and analysis that cast a serious doubt over a lot of the IPCC AR6 release assumptions and assertions and guesswork? Or has this become just an armchair comment chat show?
Geoff S
Yes indeed, look out the window in your own back yard. Can it be shown that GISTEMP makes several hundred changes to their Land Ocean Temperature Index every month, and show how that adds up to a cool the past warm the current trend over the years? Or NOAA’s Climate at a Glance shows declining summer max temperatures? How ‘bout the folks running the satellite sea level record who moaned about the 2012 speed bump on the rise to higher seas?
I’m on an IPad in the woods, otherwise I’d put up the links to all of that.
Sounds like all good things that would be of interest. The more information put out there to show how dishonest the IPCC is, the better, though we all have different perspectives and opinions.
“I can show you very good data that have Australia warming by 0.6 degrees C between about 1900 and now. The official claim is more like 1.4 deg C per century, but that does not match more rigorous estimates we have done. Do readers here want to see such data?”
Yes – As Dr Roy’s UAH TLT v6 has measured more than that in 40 years!
(and it’s the outlier coldest global temp series of the lot)
“Summary: The monthly anomalies in Australia-average surface versus satellite deep-layer lower-tropospheric temperatures correlate at 0.70 (with a 0.57 deg. C standard deviation of their difference), increasing to 0.80 correlation (with a 0.48 deg. C standard deviation of their difference) after accounting for precipitation effects on the relationship. The 40-year trends (1979-2019) are similar for the raw anomalies (+0.21 C/decade for Tsfc, +0.18 deg. C for satellite), but if the satellite and rainfall data are used to estimate Tsfc through a regression relationship, the adjusted satellite data then has a reduced trend of +0.15 C/decade. Thus, those who compare the UAH monthly anomalies to the BOM surface temperature anomalies should expect routine disagreements of 0.5 deg. C or more, due to the inherently different nature of surface versus tropospheric temperature measurements.”
Australia was quite warm during the Federation Drought, so that’s entirely possible.
The late 1930s and WWII were also on the hot side.
Eyeballing the UAH chart, there are rather apparent endpoint effects on the slope. It’s an inherent limitation of OLSR, which could really benefit from sensitivity analysis using subsets. 1979 – 2004 and 1994 – 2019 would almost certainly show statistically significant slope differences.
Yes, please.
Jo Nova has published some subsets of that, but good solid articles are always of benefit.
Please do Geoff but understand the IPCC won’t spend a second reading your piece. You have get beyond the illusion that this is about climate change.
Absolutely Geoff, its just fantasy IMO – but its funny to hit them with their own numbers.
Yes!
The trouble with experts is that they can come up with isolated facts that bolster their chosen narrative.
Here’s an XKCD comic that purports that the temperature has risen nearly 1C in the author’s lifetime. It also purports that this was predicted in a 1982 EXXON report. Are those things actually true?
Even if the comic is correct, I would ask the author to describe the ways in which things have gotten worse over his lifetime. I’m sure he’s creative enough to come up with something.
Looks like Exxon is more accurate than NOAA.
The author should stick to drawing crappy, self-regarding comics rather than lecturing us on Climate.
I wonder why he doesn’t draw a comic about the global cooling from 1940 to 1980.
The comic needs to study the effects of Super El Ninos.
Bloody cold here in Sydney. Two jumpers, two pairs of socks and two heaters. I am originally from the UK. Where is the warming?
Surely you know it is “negative warming”? Maybe we need another change, similar to that used by the alarmists from “global warming” to “climate change” – eliminates those annoying F and R labels on every gearchange lever!
I had that problem too. Australian houses are just not built for winters for some reason.
I moved to the tropics, and still find winters cold. A doona and two blankets some times. I don’t go as far as wearing socks, though.
But that’s only because fortress Australia won’t let me take my annual trip to the boreal summer.
Regarding Stephen King’s Belief in climate change/crisis/catastrophe/code red, the left brain/right brain theory posits that those in more creative fields requiring more intuitive aproaches to things with less emphasis on logical analysis are right-brained. It’s a bit simplistic of course, but seems to bear out pretty well. I have a slightly different take on brainology though involving good brain/lamebrain. Needs further study though.
Bbbbut Giant Killer Magpies are already terrorising Australia because ClimateChange!
Australian Magpies can be very friendly birds living happily in trees in backyards of houses and feeding on grubs and other insects, but during the breeding season they can become very territorial and protective of their young birds. So they swoop down to frighten intruders regardless, people, dogs, cats and other birds.
But the ones that have lived in the same area for many generations do not attack their neighbours.
I have witnessed Magpies knocking their beaks on a house screen door where the occupants feed them small balls of mince meat occasionally calling for attention.
Swooping bicycle riders and horse riders by Magpies can be a nuisance, and for walkers. The most unfortunate and very unusual accident that resulted in the death of a baby recently is the first I have heard about.
Gee, and all of a sudden – nothing happened!!!
OK we have had a few floods here and few bushfires there, drought someplace else, winds hell west and crooked but nothing unprecedented. This is not to deny the impact of these events on communities, people and animals. They ARE disasters but natural disasters that have happened before and will happen again.
Mazengarb, a “journalist” who previously worked in the “renewable” energy business for ten years, now writing in a “renewable energy” trade emag. Paid propagandist for energy grifters. Intentionally misleads by conflating the alleged regional temperature anomaly and global average temperature anomaly.
Why be surprised at anything he would write? Of course, the only people other than WUWT readers who see his article might be his fellow “renewables” trough feeders. The far greater crime is the complete abdication of true journalism by the mainstream media and those who teach them. Truth and objectivity are foreign concepts to them. Words, sound and pictures are simply the propagandists’ tools of persuasion and coercion to serve their true master.
Mazengarb used to be a member of ACT Greens; the reddest comrades of them all.
Well to lose 1.5°C the easiest thing would be to jack the whole continent up 200 ft. and let the lapse rate take care of it…
What was it we used to say in the UK ? “To nullify the UK’s contribution to climate change, stand on a brick”
“+1.5C “
Don’t let the Met Office fool you, we could certainly do with some of that in blighty this year.
“Scientists issue desperate climate warning”
Warning’s are everywhere, being given at virtually every moment of the day; these poor climate souls are just doing their bob’s worth ‘for the cause’, as Mann would say.
And there’s still a couple of months before the CoP.(Argh) It’s almost enough to induce climate anxiety in anyone.
I think this more or less sums it up
“Apocalypse porn is everywhere. You can’t open a newspaper or switch on a tablet right now without being confronted with images of fire and floods. Plagues of locusts can’t be far behind. The front page of this morning’s Guardian is devoted to an image of an elderly Greek woman in a state of distress as an ‘inferno’ nears her home on the island of Evia. (Funny, I don’t remember the Guardian rallying behind the elderly Greeks who were pummelled by the distinctly manmade horror of EU austerity, but let’s not dwell on bygones.)
Footage of Greeks sailing away from a raging fire has been shared hundreds of thousands of times. ‘Very apocalyptic’, said one journalist. Not just apocalyptic, but really apocalyptic. We’re beyond Revelations – this is worse.”
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/08/10/apocalypse-porn/
REALITY CHECK:
Go to this website, search “Australia” and see many extreme COLD events, happening ~now:
https://electroverse.net/category/extreme-weather/
Don’t you just hate it when a few facts demolish a great scary global warming fiction?
They have to hurry up with their narrative of warming before people realise, that in reality earth started cooling.
Allan:
Why is it that you cannot seem to understand the phenomena of “weather” vs that of “climate”?
As in climate is a long-term temp trend (decades) and weather being the noise in the climate system as the Earth’s heat-engine moves that energy around.
Do you expect that all places will have an even temperature?
There HAS to be temporal/spacial deltaTs, else the whole Earth would have to absorb/emit TSI at exactly the same rate always !!
You do know of the 2nd LoT ?
You do realize that the planet has no climate, don’t you? As with weather, climate is also regional but averaged over a longer period. You do realize that the term “climate change” is equivocation (appeal to ambiguity), don’t you?
Why is it you cannot seem to understand these simple facts?
Anthony,
Funny, but you should ask yourself exactly the same question.
I do.
And arrive at the correct answer.
“And arrive at the correct answer.” Really? In that case, your correct answer would be, that if you’re worried by this year’s temperatures, wait several decades (3) to show an actual climate trend, then you will actually have something to be worried about. The rest of us aren’t concerned as there hasn’t been a constant 30 year trend in warming so far – the pause or hiatus finished off the last warming trend before it became significant. This is the only reason that the IPCC and climate enthusiasts are desperate to get some action nailed down; because they are aware that the recent La Nina heralded a return to cooler conditions that will scupper any chances of them scaring people after this. Enjoy COP26 – there may not be too many more after it.
IPCC AR 1; THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!
IPCC AR 2; THE SKY IS STILL FALLING! THE SKY IS STILL FALLING!
IPCC AR 3; THE SKY IS REALLY FALLING! WE MEAN IT THIS TIME!
IPCC AR 4; OMG!! WHY AREN’T YOU GUYS LISTENING? THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!
IPCC AR 5; THE FACTS ARE NOW CLEAR! THE SKY IS DEFINITELY FALLING!!!!!
IPCC AR 6; THE SCIENCE IS REAL THIS TIME. YOU SELL ALL THIS WEATHER WE’RE HAVING? THAT MEANS THE SKY IS DEFINITELY FALLING NOW!!!!
Meanwhile real climate scientists are warning that the globe may in fact be entering a period of cooling, but we are uncertain, because we continue to not understand how global climate works because we only study the falling sky (i.e. CO2).
“because we continue to not understand how global climate works”
Something the ‘modelling clubs’ just cannot admit to. Normally, one would call that delusional.
Actually I think it is the Brits that could do with some fictitious global warming, might even make the place seem more liveable. How many more nuclear power stations will Boris have to build to keep them warm, nothing like the nuclear “forever planet polluters” lecturing the rest of the world.
Ugh. We’ve got the ficiticious global warming, ficiticious extreme weather event’s and more – all courtesy of the mendacious Met Office. You’ve got BOM doing much the same over there with the crappy temperature records and other drivel. It’s all a pile of manure presided over by different con artists and crooks out to make money any way they can.
What??? Up here in the States, reporting from the IPCC and MSM had it that cracks first started appearing in the Australian skies upon reaching the 1.4°C warming point, and that there’s universal consensus that sky parts will be falling down at the +1.5°C tipping point.
🙂
Forget not that our Sun has been at extended Solar Minimum for an unprecedented amount of time. When the Sun rockets back toward Solar Maximum – and is definitely coming – increased UV radiation will heat the atmosphere. THEN global warming will be more likely to show serious effects. Time frame for this: about 10 years.
“increased UV radiation will heat the atmosphere.”
It doesn’t heat the atmosphere (as in the part that weather occurs).
It (UV) heats the Stratosphere.
And UV is a tiny part of TSI.
Really? Or are you just off your meds at the moment? Something more than just a brief comment might be refreshing – some sort of proof would even be downright welcome. Not that I think any will be forthcoming – but one has to give the benefit of the doubt before the inevitable disappointment sets in.
I go over the tipping point every day here in Calgary, some days I go 10-15 times over the tipping point if we have a nice high pressure ridge ensuring bright sunshine. Some deserts will go over the tipping point 20x the 1.5C mark daily.
I’m surprised I’m even here. Life must be a snitch more adaptable than the alarmists give it credit for being…
I tend to go for the tipping point every day at about 5pm. That’s the tipping of a beer bottle towards my mouth, tipping point.
I hear when you breach the 1.5C mark you turn into a pumpkin. Or something.
“The report – the first of its kind in eight years – “unequivocally” confirms that global warming is occurring, attributed to human-caused increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases.”
There is just one thing I need to know: Who shut off the natural climate drivers switch?
Don’t you realize that talking about ‘nature’ is heresy … that mentioning equivalent naturally occurring events in the past is not acceptable science? Science today is all bout FEELINGS.
Tried to comment at Renew Economy, but was promptly told I’ve “been banned”. Nothing like a healthy debate, eh?
“unequivocally” 😂 They will use every scare tactic to get our tax dollars 😐
Of which “seppos” do you mean? American or septic tank.
“Attribution” does not prove causation!
The authors say that the current and future impacts of global warming are now well understood with unprecedented levels of certainty…
I have to agree. CSIRO and BMO had a real ‘hands-on’ approach. You don’t get these results just letting actual readings hold away.
It also is a product of close cooperation with other research areas. For example how would the GBR researchers know how to model unmitigatable disaster for the corals if they didnt know that, although the observation record showed Australia cooling, the tireless work of the climate boffins reversed this and crafted a warming crisis with “unprecedented levels of certainty”.
Maybe you slept through all of 2019. I hope people punch you in the fcuking face when they see you in the street you dumb cnut.
The best thing about climate alarmists is that they’re all so peaceful and polite.
w.
Feeling the love Steve.
Perhaps a psychiatrist might help you.
You should be careful. All that shouting and swearing will get you hot and bothered – I’ve heard that could be a bad thing. Go outside and cool down a bit!
those who believe would struggle in a real fight, the soy is strong in this one. And yes in primates soy is associated with violent tendencies.
Australian average temperatures at 1.4C above pre-industrial levels and we are all almost doomed…
Here’s some temperatures to consider – Marble Bar January averages
1902 38.0C
1903 42.9C
1920 42.8C
1940 38.2C
1960 40.6C
1980 38.8C
2000 36.2C
2020 39.0C
A bit hard to pick a trend out of that lot let alone a 1.4 degree increase
It was sure hot in the summer of 1969 when I was doing fieldwork on some nickel prospects WNW of the IronClad Hotel. The temperature gauge in the Tojo went off scale at 50C. Frightened the bejesus out of us. Solved the problem by throwing the guage away.
It reminds me of the film ” The wizard of Oz “. The seemingly powerful wizard is eventually revealed as a little guy who speaks into a microphone, hiding behind a curtain.
It may have gone up by 1.4C but what does is the temperature we will feel?
“Seppo’s” – is that slang for suppositories? I can believe that!
So is Ingraham.
Australia receives the full force of the natural warming El ninos. Without a very strong El nino Australia and the world will cool. Are the very strong El ninos and higher than average solar activity linked? Will the very strong El ninos still occur during periods of lower solar activity?