The Week That Was: 2021-07-17 (July 17, 2021)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Nobody understands quantum mechanics.” – Richard Feynman
Number of the Week: – 301 in 1913, up 17.6% by 1988, up 39.2% by 2021
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Fit for 55: In an article titled “Europe’s Climate Awe and Shock” the editors of the Wall Street Journal summarize the latest green scheme from the leaders of Europe. They begin:
“Brussels wants you to know that Europe’s finest bureaucrats are Thinking Big about climate change, and on Wednesday they released a comprehensive regulatory and spending plan to prove it. Call it an awe-and-shock strategy: They hope voters will be so awe-struck at its grand ambitions that they won’t have time to be shocked by what’s in it.
“Called ‘Fit for 55,’ the European Commission says the aim of its program is to reduce the European Union’s carbon emissions by at least 55% from 1990 levels by 2030. This is supposed to put Europe on track to become ‘the world’s first climate-neutral continent’ by 2050. The big Brussels reveal consists of hundreds upon hundreds of pages of proposed legal changes and spending commitments. [Isn’t part of Russia in Europe?]
“The trouble will be what’s in the fine print. The headline pledges will be difficult enough. Brussels wants to ban sales of new internal-combustion cars by 2035 and subject aviation to the EU’s emissions-trading system—good luck taking a vacation on a budget.
“Another proposal requires enormous expenditures to boost energy efficiency. There’s a renewable-energy directive, and an update to the regulation on land use, forestry, and agriculture (requiring, among many other things, planting three billion trees by 2030).
“Most of this won’t happen soon, or in this form. Industry groups started furiously picking Fit for 55 apart before it was even released. They’ll be sure to tell the national governments that have to approve this legislative Hydra about all the ways this package will be bad for job creation. They have a point, especially for industries such as aviation already nearly bankrupted by the pandemic. Governments will quail at the costs as they struggle to manage pandemic spending and debt.
“So why propose something so preposterous? Don’t underestimate the extent to which EU bureaucrats—and Europe’s national leaders—truly believe in the cause of eliminating carbon emissions. This is especially true in Germany, where voters and their politicians still pray to the climate gods despite the mounting costs.
“But don’t underestimate more cynical explanations. The backdrop for all of this is a new U.S. Administration that also wants to talk about its climate virtue. Brussels may hope that, by talking up its own climate ambitions, it can goad President Biden into inflicting on the U.S. economy costs similar to those that already hobble European industries. And if that doesn’t work, Fit for 55 includes a proposal for a carbon tariff as a diplomatic stick.”
The critical thinking exhibited by the European Union to “fight” climate change is reminiscent of the critical thinking exhibited by the European powers as they rushed off to fight in the glorious World War I, without a compelling threat. The threats were largely the product of propaganda coupled by vanity and arrogance. So is the threat of carbon dioxide-caused climate change. Germany came close to executing a brilliant plan but fell short and four years of destruction and human slaughter ensued. See links under Problems in the Orthodoxy and Article # 1.
********************
Blue Planet In Green Shackles: An outstanding response to the EU climate package came from former Czech president Vaclav Klaus. Lubos Motl provided a translation. In part, Klaus wrote:
“This climate package is not bold. It is stupid and nonsensical. It is unrealistic, and if it were to be implemented, it would be a completely destructive package. Completely destructive to the lives, freedom and living standards of the people of Europe.
“That this package can do any good for the planet is something only green activists, only the advocates of the utterly unsustainable doctrine of climate alarmism, can think. Only people who believe in an immediate linear or even exponential relationship between the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and the average global temperature. I am not one of these deluded individuals who have managed to garner such absurd media coverage. Man’s role in the evolution of global temperatures over the long term is completely negligible. Moreover, CO2 has already played its potential role in influencing temperatures. The intention of carbon neutrality is an anti-human policy. It has almost no connection to temperature.”
As Klaus implies, the physical evidence shows that human additions of CO2 have a minor impact on earth’s temperature and climate. This has been shown in numerous experiments since John Tyndall in 1859. The experiments are confirmed by observations of the atmosphere. The speculated amplification from increased water vapor embodied in global climate models remains speculation. Global atmospheric temperature trends show no such amplification.
Born under Fascism (Nazism) and coming of age under Communism, Klaus has articulated how destructive authoritarian governments can be, regardless of what one labels such belief systems. The Amazon description of his book is.
“The largest threat to freedom, democracy, the market economy, and prosperity at the beginning of the 21st century is no longer socialism or Communism. It is, instead, the ambitious, arrogant, unscrupulous ideology of environmentalism. So writes Vaclav Klaus, [former] president of the Czech Republic, in Blue Planet in Green Shackles: What Is Endangered – Climate Or Freedom? In this brilliantly argued book, Klaus argues that the environmental movement has transformed itself into an ideology that seeks to restrict human activities at any cost, and that policies being proposed to address global warming are both economically harmful — especially to poor nations — and utterly unjustified by current science.”
See link. under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Planet-Green-Shackles-Endangered/dp/1889865095
********************
23 Out Of 25: Researchers from Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China, estimated the energy related greenhouse gas emissions from 167 cities and found 52 percent of the world’s urban greenhouse gas emissions come from only 25 megacities. Under the ranking by most emissions, Moscow is ranked 7 and Tokyo is 17. Twenty-three are in China (including Hong Kong) and Guangzhou is ranked 13. The highest-ranking US city is New York at 26, just ahead of Manilla and Bangkok. The highest-ranking EU city is Frankfort, Germany, at 33, just below Istanbul, Turkey, and ahead of Jakarta, Indonesia. The authors recognize the study has limitations:
“Some limitations and uncertainties should be noted. First, the definitions of ‘urban unit’ are diverse and sometimes inconsistent from cities to cities, which makes it difficult to assess cities within the same geographical scale (inclusion of urban areas) and organization status (forms of local administration), given the current data. This may introduce uncertainties to the carbon accounts and budgets.” An example is given.
“Second, the population data are collected to match with the carbon data and could be subject to some extents of inconsistency.”
During Chairman Mao’s Cultural Revolution (1966 to 1976) urban areas were purged “of capitalist and traditional elements,” millions were massacred, and famine to the point of cannibalism occurred. It is doubtful that the leaders of China will purge their cities to satisfy the arrogance and vanity of EU Greens. They will probably smile politely and wonder what type of fools lead the EU to economic destruction. See links under Problems in the Orthodoxy.
********************
Failure to Correct: Roger Pielke Jr. and Justin Ritchie describe how out of date the scenarios used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are and how out of touch with reality are those who use them. This lack of reality applies to most studies using global climate models. Published by Issues in Science and Technology the authors write:
“A failure of self-correction in science has compromised climate science’s ability to provide plausible views of our collective future.
“The integrity of science depends on its capacity to provide an ever more reliable picture of how the world works. Over the past decade or so, serious threats to this integrity have come to light. The expectation that science is inherently self-correcting, and that it moves cumulatively and progressively away from false beliefs and toward truth, has been challenged in numerous fields—including cancer research, neuroscience, hydrology, cosmology, and economics—as observers discover that many published findings are of poor quality, subject to systemic biases, or irreproducible.
After giving an example of erroneous research on breast cancer, the authors continue:
“In 2021, climate research finds itself in a situation similar to breast cancer research in 2007. Our research (and that of several colleagues) indicates that the scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the end of the twenty-first century are grounded in outdated portrayals of the recent past. Because climate models depend on these scenarios to project the future behavior of the climate, the outdated scenarios provide a misleading basis both for developing a scientific evidence base and for informing climate policy discussions. The continuing misuse of scenarios in climate research has become pervasive and consequential—so much so that we view it as one of the most significant failures of scientific integrity in the twenty-first century thus far. We need a course correction.”
After a lengthy discussion on errors embodied in the science produced by the IPCC and its followers, the authors state that restoring integrity in climate science will be difficult:
“The consequences of pervasive, implausible climate scenarios extend far beyond the IPCC process and the academic literature these scenarios have enabled. A continued focus on implausible emissions scenarios in climate research is a failure of science’s supposed internal quality assurance mechanisms and thus a failure of scientific integrity. The persistent use of implausible scenarios introduces error and bias widely across climate research. They are now woven through the climate science literature in ways that will be very difficult to untangle.”
After additional remarks, the authors conclude with:
“Good science works to bring society the best possible images of the real world. The emissions scenarios of today’s climate science are delivering distorted pictures that compromise both understanding and well-informed policymaking. Until the climate science community addresses this fundamental problem of scientific integrity, its potential to contribute to pragmatic solutions for the vexing, extraordinarily difficult challenge of climate change will be unnecessarily compromised. Climate change has been solved countless times in fanciful models, but it is the real world that matters.” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy
********************
Fractional Attribution of Risk (FAR): Last week’s TWTW presented the latest effort to divert attention away from facts that expose the false predictions of climate alarmists, Fractional Attribution of Risk (FAR). Writing in Quadrant Online, Michael Kile describes how World Weather Attribution (WWA) uses this technique to claim the extreme heat in the northwest US and southwest Canada was human-caused (by CO2 emissions). Kile also gives a brief history:
“It all began with ACE, the Attribution of Climate-related Events initiative. ACE’s inaugural meeting was held in Boulder, Colorado, January 26, 2009, at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). ACE released a four-paragraph statement. Its mission would be “to provide authoritative assessments of the causes of anomalous climate conditions and EWEs”, presumably for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
“ACE’s ‘conceptual framework for attribution activities’ would be: ‘elevated in priority and visibility, leading to substantial increases in resources (funds, people and computers).’ Everyone had to sing from the same song-sheet:”
Kile uses the false “Antarctica’s hottest day” as an example. As discussed in last week’s TWTW, the weather station involved is outside the Antarctic Circle. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
********************
Flawed Heatwave Report: US Pacific northwest meteorologist Cliff Mass goes through a technical examination of the World Weather Attribution report. Mass states that its main findings are not supported by scientific evidence or the materials in the report. He emphasizes certain claims within the report are contradicted by other claims within the report. Mass also brings up the IPCC global warming scenarios, which as Pielke explains above, are worse than useless, they are misleading.
“It is clear that this attribution study was not intended to serve as an objective examination of a scientific issue (e.g., the contribution of global warming to the Northwest heatwave) but rather is an advocacy document.
“It is easy to demonstrate this. For example, the first section of the paper calls for immediate policy changes, including adaptation and mitigation. The final section “Recommendations” promotes policy changes and specific adaptation recommendations. The inconsistency between the dramatic claims of the first sentence and the more nuanced material within the document suggests a clear intention to highlight a message that promotes notice and action.”
It is important to note that NCAR, where the Attribution of Climate-related Events initiative began, is principally financed by the National Science Foundation. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
********************
Pogo Stick Power: For the past several weeks, TWTW reported on the changes in wind power generation as reported by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), which includes the Columbia River Gorge “where the wind always blows.” The total nameplate generation is 27,879 MW of which 79.5% is hydro and 10.5% (2930 MW) is wind.
On July 12, wind power went to zero at mid-day, bounced to over 1500 MW at midnight, back down close to zero mid-day on July 13, then bounced around for a few days. On July 15, at midnight, it was above 2000 MW and bounced between 1800 and 2500 MW until July 17. Then it fell dramatically to near zero at midday and bounced up to about 1500 MW at midnight.
In attempting to find BPA’s answer to a question by engineer Paul Kenyon on how the BPA balances the load without destroying the turbines, TWTW was unsuccessful. However, it did find a transcript of a discussion between Doug Johnson, Public Affairs Specialist and Brian Silverstein, Senior Vice President for Transmission Services, BPA, titled “Value of the River – Transmission” dated October 12, 2012. One paragraph is particularly germane:
“Anyone who’s traveled through the Columbia River Gorge in recent years knows that the Northwest is rich with wind power. But because the amount of energy that the wind produces can fluctuate up or down, moment to moment, it can be a challenge. BPA’s system operators are constantly balancing wind power with energy from the dams to avoid disruptions or power outages. But the hydro system is at its limit as the sole source of balancing, so BPA and others in the energy community are seeking innovative solutions to meet this challenge.” [Boldface added]
The BPA has problems balancing Pogo Stick Power. See links under Energy Issues – US and https://www.bpa.gov/pages/results.aspx?k=how%20does%20bpa%20balance%20wind%20power%3F
********************
Dam Removal: The greens have motivated Indian tribal leaders to call for removal of dams on the Snake River, which includes some of the dams BPA uses for balancing wind power. The false claim is to save salmon and orcas from extinction.
“Neither Snake River sockeye, nor any of the other 12 runs of salmon and steelhead since listed for protection under the ESA in the Columbia and Snake, have recovered despite more than $17 billion spent to save them.
The relevant Corps of Engineers web site states:
“The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Walla Walla District owns and operates the four lower Snake River dams, all of which are multiple-use facilities that provide navigation, hydropower, recreation, and fish and wildlife conservation benefits.
“Because of their locations, size and ability to help meet peak power loads, these four dams do much more than generate energy–they are key to keeping the system reliable and helping to meet its multiple uses — including supporting wind energy. The Snake River dams lie east of the other federal generators, so they provide a significant technical contribution to transmission grid reliability.
“The Lower Snake River system of locks and dams deliver a significant economic benefit to the nation. Barging on the inland Columbia Snake River System moves, on average, approximately 10 million tons of cargo valued at over $3 billion each year. Forty percent of the Nation’s wheat transits through this system.” [Boldface added.]
Salmon runs change from year to year and as demonstrated by the fisheries students who uncovered the Pacific Decadal Oscillation change every 20 to 30 years or so. The website has graphs showing yearly counts of adult fish returns for Chinook, Steelhead, Sockeye, Coho by dam as well as the count for lamprey. What is surprising is how well these fish have recovered after fish passage improvements were made. Also, according to NOAA Fisheries, Chinook salmon are the preferred fish for southern resident orcas. West Coast Chinook salmon have increased in the past 50 years. Further, those calling for removal of the dams make no mention of the increase of protected seals at the mouths of the river systems. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science and Energy Issues – US.
****************
14th ICCC: The 14th International Conference on Climate Change presented by The Heartland Institute will be October 15 to 17, 2021, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. See https://climateconference.heartland.org/
****************
39th Annual Meeting of DDP: The Doctors for Disaster Preparedness will hold their 39th annual meeting “Renew, or ‘Reset’?” in Tucson on July 30 to August 1, 2021 at the Doubletree at Reid Park. Three SEPP directors will be giving presentations: Willie Soon, Sunspots: Hindcasting and Forecasting the Solar Cycle; David Legates, Bloom energy: the Theranos of Thermodynamics; and Howard Hayden, The Magic Trick of Climate Science. Register at http://www.ddponline.org/
****************
SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
The voting will close on July 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. The awardee will be announced at the DDP meeting on July 31 or August 1. For a list of past recipients and their accomplishments in earning this honor see http://www.sepp.org/april-fools-award.cfm
****************
Number of the Week: – 301 in 1913, up 17.6% by 1988, up 39.2% by 2021. The hottest temperature recorded on Earth was 134 F (56.5 C) Death Valley, California on July 10, 1913, at Greenland Ranch. According to NASA-GISS estimates the CO2 concentration in 1913 was 301 ppmv (parts per million volume). The tracking of CO2 concentrations at Mona Loa, verified by data taken elsewhere, peaks each year in May.
June 23, 1988 – James Hansen testified to the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, triggering the political fear of global warming. the May peak CO2 concentration was 354 ppmv, up 53 ppmv, 17.6%, since 1913.
In 2021 the May peak CO2 concentration was 419 ppmv, up 188 ppmv, 39.2%, since 1913
It appears that nature does not obey global climate models and climate pessimists.
https://www.currentresults.com/Weather-Extremes/US/hottest.php, https://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/ghgases/Fig1A.ext.txt, https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_mm_mlo.txt, and https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2764/Coronavirus-response-barely-slows-rising-carbon-dioxide
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
Tree rings show record of newly identified extreme solar activity event
Press release by Morgan Rehnberg, American Geophysical Union, July 13, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: A Single-Year Cosmic Ray Event at 5410 BCE Registered in 14C of Tree Rings
By F. Miyake, et al. Geophysical Research Letter, June 1, 2021
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Will the people rise up against the EU?
By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, July 16, 2021
New Paper on Out-of-Date Climate Scenarios
How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch With Reality
A failure of self-correction in science has compromised climate science’s ability to provide plausible views of our collective future.
By Roger Pielke Jr. and Justin Ritchie, Issues in Science and Technology, Summer 2021
Link to pdf: https://drive.google.com/file/d/11UMwQ7yBNamp6GI0ONUPrXPpP8smz_xH/view
Flawed Heatwave Report Leads to False Headlines in Major Media
Last week we witnessed a major failure in science communication regarding the Northwest heatwave
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 13, 2021
Link to report: Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heatwave on the Pacific Coast of the US and Canada June 2021.
By Sjoukje Y. Philip, et al. World Weather Attribution, No Date
Heat waves and hot air
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. July 15, 2021
How Warmists Package Panic
By Michael Kile, Quadrant, July 15, 2021
[SEPP Comment: ICECAP also noted this analysis.]
Global Man-made CO2 emissions 1965 – 2020: BP data
By Ed Hoskins, His Blog, July 2021 [H/t WUWT]
“An excellent way to undermine Western economies is to render their power generation unreliable and expensive. That objective of Green thinking is progressively being achieved by Government policy but without popular voter mandate throughout the Western world.”
Eating less meat won’t ‘save the planet’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 16, 2021 (Video)
Inside the Sea Level Scare Machine
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, July 15, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Illustrations between observed and imaginary trends.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Greenland Votes to Suspend Oil and Uranium Exploration because Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 16, 2021
“Greenland suffers the highest rate of youth suicide in the world, endemic poverty, a total lack of opportunity, and rampant alcohol and drug abuse – possibly because they are mostly a government handout economy.”
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Biden administration seeks to reshape major climate report
By Andrew Freedman, Axios, July 14, 2021
“Such changes may include the development of visual or interactive features to show how climate change could affect local communities.”
[SEPP Comment: The last report claimed that the US corn (maize) and soybean production would suffer from warming and Canada will benefit. Yet, the biggest competitor of the US for these grains is tropical Brazil. Perhaps this time it will show flooding of FDR Drive in Manhattan as James Hansen predicted it would occur by now.]
Historic summit of tribes across Pacific Northwest presses dam removal on Inslee, Biden, Congress
By Lynda Mapes, Seattle Times, July 9, 2021
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Six Facts the Left Doesn’t Want You To Know About Global Warming
By David Simon, Real Clear Markets, July 12, 2021
Essential US Navy Petroleum Supplies
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, July 13, 2021
What Really Controls The Climate?
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 14, 2021
Earth Still Much Colder Than Optimum, Science Shows…Lives Can Be Saved By More Warming
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 14, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Who knows what the optimum is? A balance between cold- and heat-related deaths?]
Green Energy Failures Redux
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, July 16, 2021
Hottest June Ever (Part 2) (Video)
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 14, 2021
Part 1
Change in US Administrations
White House announces new head of climate assessment after ousting Trump-era pick
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, July 13, 2021
Biden wanted a climate alliance with Europe. He’s getting a fight.
The European Union’s leadership is set to unveil a proposal on Wednesday to tax imports from countries — including the U.S. — that lack aggressive carbon-reducing policies
By Zack Colman, Politico, July 14, 2021
Biden Administration Working To Undermine America
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 10, 2021
US and Germany launch climate partnership
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, July 15, 2021
Link to fact sheet: FACT SHEET: U.S.-Germany Climate and Energy Partnership
Press Release, White House, July 15, 2021
“Climate Action: The United States and Germany will push to raise global climate ambition and work bilaterally and multilaterally to accelerate reaching a net-zero future.”
[SEPP Comment: Global Climate Ambition?]
European Union rocked by wall of opposition over Net Zero costs
By Staff, Financial Times, Via GWPF, July 16, 2021
EU wades into battle over its green revolution
By Alex Pigman, with Julien Girault, Brussels (AFP) July 14, 2021
Just 25 ‘mega-cities’ produce 52 per cent of the world’s urban greenhouse gas emissions — and 23 of them are in China
By Ian Randall, Daily Mail, July 12, 2021 [H/t Paul deWitt]
Link to paper: “Keeping Track of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Progress and Targets in 167 Cities Worldwide”
By Ting We, Junliang Wu, and Shaoqing Chen, Frontiers in Sustainable Cities, No Date
Another Global Warming Fact Alarmists Want Buried
I & I Editorial Board, July 15, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Seeking a Common Ground
5 minutes
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. July 11, 2021
“We need to remind ourselves that addressing climate change isn’t an end in itself, and that climate change is not the only problem that the world is facing. The objective should be to improve human well-being in the 21st century, while protecting the environment as much as we can.”
Media, politicians, and scientists skew climate data
Obama official concedes it’s impossible to predict the risks of climate change
By Anthony Sadar, Washington Times July 7, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Review of Steve Koonin’s book]
Unsettling the apple cart I: Koonin on Climate
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 14, 2021
Comments on Koonin’s book by Ross McKitrick
Models v. Observations
Large-scale wetlands construction seen as effective treatment for farm runoff
Scientists model Mississippi Basin water quality
Press Release, NSF, July 14, 2021
Link to paper: Integrated assessment modeling reveals near-channel management as cost-effective to improve water quality in agricultural watersheds
By Amy T. Hansen, et al. PNAS, July 13, 2021
Scientists find that most nitrogen in the Gulf of Mexico comes from coastal waters
Discovery is important to understanding the Gulf’s food web
Press Release, NSF, July 13, 2021
Link to paper: Lateral advection supports nitrogen export in the oligotrophic open-ocean Gulf of Mexico
By Thomas B. Kelly, et al. Nature Communications, June 3, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Could it be that the nitrogen rich area at the mouth of the Mississippi, which environmentalists call a “dead zone,” actually benefit sea life in general? See link immediately above.]
Measurement Issues — Surface
The Truth About Heat Waves
By Jim Steele, WUWT, July 12, 2021
NOAA confirms last month was hottest June ever in US
By Sarah Polus, The Hill, July 9, 2021
Link to press release: June 2021 was the hottest June on record for U.S.
Nation has experienced 8 billion-dollar disasters so far this year
By Staff, NOAA, July 9, 2021
From press release: “The first six months of 2021 also brought eight-billion-dollar weather disasters, ranging from destructive severe weather to a historic deep freeze, according to experts from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.”
How these 5 cities became the most intense urban heat islands
By Adriana Navarro, AccuWeather, July 15, 2021
Link to report: Hot Zones: Urban Heat Island
By Staff, Climate Central, July 14, 2021
[SEPP Comment: There is no excuse for not identifying the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in US NOAA and NASA-GISS data. It needs to be identified.]
July 16, 1901
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 16, 2021
Includes graph of July 16 Precent of stations Above 95.0F (35.0C) Vs. Year 1895-2021
AT All US Historical Climatology Network Stations
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
A CO2 Puzzle
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, July 12, 2021
“So there’s the mystery. Between CO2, methane and minor greenhouse gases, water vapor, and cloud feedback, the percentage absorbed should be increasing far faster than it actually is … why isn’t it?”
[SEPP Comment: Nature does not obey man’s models.]
Heatwave Haze
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 11, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Photochemical smog is common in the southern Appalachian Mountains in August. It is largely from volatile organic chemicals produced from trees and other plants.]
Changing Weather
The deadly heat wave of July 1936 in the middle of arguably the hottest decade on record for the US
By Paul Dorian. Peraton Weather, Via WUWT, July 15, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Includes photos of the dust bowl and temperature records.]
The settled science of unsettled science
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 14, 2021
Why are Northwest Summers So Dry? And a Cool Forecast for the Next Week
Midsummers in the Pacific Northwest are dry on average.
Really dry. Drier than Phoenix. In my podcast, I tell you why.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 16, 2021
Old-school data suggests hurricanes in the Atlantic are not more frequent than in the past
By Bob Yirka, Phys.org. July 14, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century
By Gabriel A. Vecchi, Christopher Landsea, Wei Zhang, Gabriele Villarini & Thomas Knutson, Nature Communications, July 13, 2021
Remember Portland?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 14, 2021
Changing Climate
Melting Glaciers Revealing Ancient Tree Stumps from a Warmer Period
By Ronald Stein, WUWT, July 12, 2021
Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
Malthusian Myth Busting: Easter Island Edition
By David Middleton, WUWT, July 15, 2021
Changing Seas
Coral cells seen engulfing algae for first time
By Staff Writers, Onna, Japan (SPX), Jul 15, 2021
Link to paper: In vitro Symbiosis of Reef-Building Coral Cells With Photosynthetic Dinoflagellates
By Kaz Kawamura, et al. Frontiers in Marine Science,
Study Projects a Surge in Coastal Flooding, Starting in 2030s
By Carol Rasmussen for NASA Earth News, Pasadena CA (JPL) Jul 08, 2021
“Why will cities on such widely separated coastlines begin to experience these higher rates of flooding at almost the same time? The main reason is a regular wobble in the Moon’s orbit that takes 18.6 years to complete. There’s nothing new or dangerous about the wobble; it was first reported in 1728. What’s new is how one of the wobble’s effects on the Moon’s gravitational pull – the main cause of Earth’s tides – will combine with rising sea levels resulting from the planet’s warming.”
[SEPP Comment: Seas have risen by about 120 meters, 400 feet, in the past 20,000 years. Surely NASA can estimate sea level rise over the next 20 years based on actual levels, not imagined levels. Using local tidal gages for sea level rise, the floods can be calculated for various locations.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
New Study: A ‘Profound’ ~1°C Cooling Trend Across East Antarctica Since 1979 Is ‘Likely To Accelerate’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 12, 2021
Link to paper: East Antarctic cooling induced by decadal changes in Madden-Julian oscillation during austral summer
By Pang-Chi Hsu, AAAS Science Advances, June 23, 2021
NASA Space Lasers Map Meltwater Lakes in Antarctica With Striking Precision
By Staff Writers, Greenbelt MD (SPX), Jul 08, 2021
Link to paper: Illuminating active subglacial lake processes with ICESat-2 laser altimetry
By M. R. Siegfried & H. A. Fricker, Geophysical Research Letter, July 7, 2021
Greenland’s 2021 spring: more snow, less melt
Press Release, National Snow & Ice Data Center, June 26, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/2021/06/greenlands-spring-of-2021-more-snow-less-melt/
Russia races to build giant ice-breakers for Arctic dominance
By Marina Koreneva, Saint Petersburg (AFP) July 15, 2021
Changing Earth
To predict underwater volcano eruptions, scientist looks at images from space
By Staff Writers, Hiroshima, Japan (SPX), Jul 12, 2021
Link to paper: Trial of Chemical Composition Estimation Related to Submarine Volcano Activity Using Discolored Seawater Color Data Obtained from GCOM-C SGLI. A Case Study of Nishinoshima Island, Japan, in 2020
By Yuji Sakun, Water, Apr 16, 2021
Acidic Waters
What Is Calcium Carbonate?
By Staff, Industrial Minerals Association – North America, Accessed July 14, 2021
Flue Gas Scrubbing with Limestone Slurry
By A. Saleem, Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, 1972, Online March 15, 2012
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
‘Debate Rages Over Glyphosate’? The Conversation Publishes Terrible Roundup Article
By Cameron English, ACSH, July 7, 2021
Gizmodo: US Wheat Crop Devastated… Because Climate Change
By David Middleton, WUWT, July 14, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
2°C: Beyond the Limit
Extreme climate change has arrived in America
By Steven Mufson , Chris Mooney , Juliet Eilperin and John Muyskens, The Washington Post, July 13, 2021 [H/t Dennis Ortega]
[SEPP Comment: Much of the “dangerous warming” is in the northern part of the US. Will this stop Americans from moving south?]
Scare stories that didn’t happen
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 14, 2021
China steps up climate fight with emissions trading scheme
By Poornima Weerasekara, Beijing (AFP), July 16, 2021
“China launched its long-awaited emissions trading system on Friday, a key tool in its quest to drive down climate change-causing greenhouse gases and go carbon neutral by 2060.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Climate change to bring more intense storms across Europe
Press Release by Newcastle University, July 16, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Quasi-Stationary Intense Rainstorms Spread Across Europe Under Climate Change
By Abdullah Kahraman, et al. Geophysical Research Letters, June 30, 2021
From summary:” Here, using very detailed climate simulations (with a 2.2 km grid), we show that the storms producing intense rain across Europe might move slower with climate change, increasing the duration of local exposure to these extremes.” [Boldface added]
Human body size fluctuated in response to climate change over last million years
By Brooks Hays, Washington DC (UPI), Jul 8, 2021
Possible link to paper: Different environmental variables predict body and brain size evolution in Homo
By Manuel Will, et at. Nature Communications, July 8, 2021
[SEPP Comment: The rule states, that within a broad range, species of larger size are found in colder environments while smaller sizes are in warmer regions. Why are people in the US getting bigger?]
Putin says Russia, US have ‘common interests’ on climate change
By AFP Staff Writers, Moscow (AFP), July 14, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Russia agrees that the US should not develop resources in the Arctic?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
SMH: “If green hydrogen becomes competitive … gas prices will plummet”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 12, 2021
The climate over-under
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 14, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Pesticide Propaganda: A Guide To Spotting Activism Masquerading As Journalism, Part 1
By Cameron English, ACSH, July 12, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
A Teachers’ Guide to Miseducating the Young
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, June 28, 2021 [H/t Paul Homewood]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
NASA, European Space Agency join forces on climate change
By AFP Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), July 13, 2021
“’Climate change is an all-hands-on-deck, global challenge that requires action — now,’ said NASA chief Nelson.”
G20 Endorses Global Carbon Pricing
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 11, 2021
Questioning European Green
EU Kicks Off Biggest Push Yet on Climate, Braces for a Fight
By Staff, Investing.com, UK, July 15, 2021
EU Unveils Absurd Climate Change Targets “To Give Humanity A Fighting Chance”
By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, July 14, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Charles Moore: Why are we expected to abandon gas boilers when the expensive alternative won’t reduce emissions?
By Charles Moore, Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, July 10, 2021
Questioning Green Elsewhere
China will benefit when Biden caves to climate activists: Marc Morano
Morano believes Biden is ‘going to cave’ to progressives on the issue
By Staff, Fox News, July 13, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
Funding Issues
COP26 in trouble as Boris Johnson reneges on climate funds
By Staff, GWPF, July 12, 2012
[UK] Taxpayer Could Pay For Overseas Renewable Power Projects
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 16, 2021
Somalia is Furious They Have Not Yet Received their Climate Finance
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 15, 2021
Litigation Issues
23 Total States Join Lawsuit Against Biden Administration Over Keystone Pipeline
By Rusty Weiss, Political Insider, June 7, 2021 [Jim Hollingsworth]
Boulder Officials: Actually, Our Climate Lawsuit Is About Driving “Systems-Level Change”
By William Allison, Energy In Depth, July 14, 2021
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Arnold Schwarzenegger’s ironic warning over climate change rhetoric
By Susan Shelley, Orange County Register, July 11, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
“The cap-and-trade program operates like a tax. It increases the cost of gasoline, diesel fuel, electricity and heat, and it raises the price of everything that’s made or moved in California, where the high cost of living has contributed to the highest poverty rate in the nation, according to the Census Bureau.
“What has it done for the climate?
“Nothing.”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Business, labor groups teaming in high-speed rail push
By Mychael Schnell, The Hill, July 15, 2021
“’Rail is climate infrastructure,’ Ocasio-Cortez said at a press conference.
“’For every buck that we’re going to put into a car and a bridge, we want to put a buck into a rail. We want equity. That’s what we’re here to demand,’ she added.”
Energy Issues – Non-US
Our first big win: Ministers delay Net Zero heating plans following disagreements inside government
Press Release, GWPF, July 15, 2021
Energy Issues – Australia
Another Green Spruiker Takes AEMO’s Helm
By Alan Moran, Quadrant, July 17, 2021
“Levied on Australia’s annual 500 million tonnes of CO2 neutrality this is a national cost of $80 billion a year. All this to achieve an outcome that would also entail closing much of the primary and secondary industry which gives us our First World living standards!”
Texas’ Wounded Grid: Reliable Generators Call for Public Subsidies (renewables distortion for all to see)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, July 12, 2021
[SEPP Comment: And wind promoters will still claim that wind is the lowest cost of generation, forgetting the need for reliable generation.]
Bonneville Power Administration
By Staff, BPA.Gov/transmission, Accessed July 17
BPA Balancing Authority Total Wind Generation, Near-Real-Time
BPA Balancing Authority Load and Total Wind, Hydro, Fossil/Biomass, and Nuclear Generation, Near-Real-Time
Lower Snake River Dams: A Value to the Nation
By Staff, Corps of Engineers, Walla Walla District, Accessed July 16, 2021
Southern Resident Killer Whales and West Coast Chinook Salmon
By Staff, NOAA Fisheries West Coast Region, 2018
Washington’s Control of Energy
Another Biden Administration eco-con
Mr. Biden will “preserve 30% of our land” – and blanket America with wind, solar and landfills
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, July 16, 2021
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Technology Triumph: Track 4A Is POWER’s Plant of the Year
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, July 1, 2021
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Futile fusion research
We must stop wasting money on tokamak fusion, and use if for programs with promise
By Robert Hirsch and Roger Bezdek, WUWT, July 13, 2021
Nuclear Energy: Systemic Risk or Climate Change Cure
Geoffrey Pohanka Real Clear Energy July 15, 2021
The World’s First Small Nuclear Reactor Is Now Under Construction
By Charles Kennedy, Oil Price.com, July 13, 2021 [H/t Paul deWitt]
[SEPP Comment: Land based, in China. Ignores that the Nautilus was commissioned in 1954.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Electricity demand growing faster than renewables: IEA
By AFP Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), July 15, 2021
California moves to end unfair $230/year rooftop solar subsidy for rich
By Paul Griffin, Energy Fairness, July 1, 2021
http://energyfairness.org/california-moves-to-end-unfair-230-year-rooftop-solar-subsidy-for-rich/
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
How Marginalized Communities in the South Are Paying the Price for Europe’s ‘Green Energy’ in Europe
By Majilie de Puy Kamp, CNN, July 9, 2021
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
UK’s giant battery ‘farms’ spark fears of explosions that can reach temperatures of 660C – even worse than the Beirut port blast – with one expert calling them ‘potential bombs’
By Amy Oliver, Daily Mail, July 10, 2021
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
It’s Time to Unplug the Hype Over Electric Vehicles
By Robert Bryce, Real Clear Energy, July 11, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Biden’s EV goals may be fantasy, but the profits the swamp is making are real
By Kelly Sadler, The Washington Times, June 29, 2021
For 40% Of The EU And US To Drive EVs, 56,000-70,000 Km² Of Land Must Be Cleared For Wind Turbines
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 15, 2021
Link to paper: On the sustainability of electric vehicles: What about their impacts on land use?
By Francesco Orsia, Sustainable Cities and Society. March 2021
California Dreaming
Reliability-Wary California Will Procure More Energy Resources to Get It Through Summer
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, July 8, 2021
“…the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) on July 1 declared a “significant event” and used its backstop capacity procurement mechanism (CPM) authority to issue a solicitation for additional capacity during the months of July, August, and September. However, CAISO officials in a July 2 call suggested the significant event may last through October.”
[SEPP Comment: The California Legislation is responsible for the lack of reliable generation.]
Health, Energy, and Climate
Global Warming Is Actually Sparing Lives …Cold Kills 17 Times More Than Heat, According To Lancet!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 13, 2021
Mistaken claims about malaria and global warming
By Staff, GWPF, July 9, 2021
Oh Mann!
He’s the Mann
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 14, 2021
Environmental Industry
Secret Otto Engine Car For German Green Party Minister…”Range Anxiety”…”In The Interest Of The Country”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 11, 2021
Other News that May Be of Interest
Israel and Jordan agree on major water sale, Palestinian trade
By AFP Staff Writers, Amman (AFP), July 8, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Unable to determine how much water comes from desalination, which has greatly reduced water shortages in Israel, the world leader in desalination.]
Novel smart cement can be used to build more durable roads and cities
Incorporating nanomaterials into traditional cement improves water and fracture resistance
Press Release, NSF, July 13, 2021
Link to paper: Fracture toughness of one- and two-dimensional nanoreinforced cement via scratch testing
By Ange-Therese Akono, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, June 21, 2021
[SEPP Comment: The term “smart cement” is ridiculous, but the improvement in durability of “the most widely consumed material globally” may be significant.]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Foreign Affairs: No Time for Nuclear Power to Save Us from Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 13, 2021
“Journalistic research fail? Foreign Affairs claims wrongly that ‘No country has developed this [nuclear] technology to a point where it can and will be widely and successfully deployed.’. But two countries, France and Sweden, did just that in the 1970s.”
Scare stories we could do without
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 14, 2021
Tourists fined for touching endangered seal in Hawaii
By Caroline Vakil, The Hill, July 14, 2021
“According to the husband, Stephen, it was the first time that he and his wife, Lakyn, had seen the animal, and they reportedly did not know the laws and enforcement around the endangered species. The couple has received death threats and asked that their last names be withheld, the news outlet reported.”
Whatever Happened To Acid Rain?
By Susan Goldhaber, ACSH, July 9, 2021
“The acid rain story should be studied by every person interested in environmental policy. The cap-and-trade approach is currently being used to help solve climate change in the U.S. and globally. For example, California instituted a cap-and-trade policy for carbon emissions, leading to a steady decline in carbon dioxide emissions.”
[SEPP Comment: The proven technological solution for sulfur dioxide-caused acid rain was scrubbing flue gas with limestone slurry. There is no such proven solution for CO2 emissions.]
Warming, deforestation turn Amazon into source of CO2
By Marlowe Hood, Paris (AFP), July 14, 2021
Link to paper: Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change
By Luciana V. Gatti, et al. Nature, July 14, 2021
Link to commentary: Southeast Amazonia is no longer a carbon sink
Atmospheric measurements show that deforestation and rapid local warming have reduced or eliminated the capacity of the eastern Amazonian forest to absorb carbon dioxide — with worrying implications for future global warming.
By Scott Denning, Nature, July 14, 2021
From article” “The Amazon rainforest is one of a dozen so-called ‘tipping points’ in the climate system.
“Ice sheets atop Greenland and the West Antarctic, Siberian permafrost loaded with CO2 and methane, monsoon rains in South Asia, coral reef ecosystems, the jet stream — all are vulnerable to point-of-no-return transitions that would radically alter the world as we know it.”
[SEPP Comment: What does this do to companies buying carbon credits in rainforest to claim virtue in their actions?]
ARTICLES
1. Europe’s Climate Awe and Shock
Vast new plans that won’t happen but might fool the U.S.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, July 14, 2021
TWTW Summary: In addition to what is presented in the text above, the editorial states:
Expect more of this gamesmanship in the run-up to this autumn’s global climate confab in Scotland. China on Wednesday unveiled its own new emissions-trading system, which for now appears intended more to pacify U.S. climate envoy John Kerry than to reduce China’s carbon emissions. The United Kingdom’s government rolled out its own fanciful plans to reduce emissions tied to transportation.
The aim is to shame Washington into action. This is a trap for the unwary. Brussels’s announcement proves bureaucrats are happy to expend hot air talking about imposing new climate costs, but not that they’ll be able to implement them.
don’t forget that the disaster in Germany, Belgium, Netherlands was caused by truly exceptional summer rainfall and all the diversions about who warned whom can’t hide the exceptional nature of the event, that this is exactly as predicted by climate science, undoubtedly the result of climate change and that climate skepticism is dead in NW Europe now.
Reconstruction, as after the 2002 Elbe record flood, will decide the politics.
I don’t believe the 160 killed and the missing are all skeptics.
Climate Science doesn’t predict anything, never has, never will.
You know,what scenarios are ?
The rest is assumption, nothing else.
Learn science, a bit at least ! 😀
“that this is exactly as predicted by climate science, undoubtedly the result of climate change”
Based on who’s climate science? Please provide the scientific citation(s) and pages where this has been published to support your claim of “undoubtedly the result of climate change.”
NURSE! he’s out of bed again..
Not even S. Rahmsdorf, the doom prayer of Potsdam tells it can’t be attributed directly to CC, but then there is griff…..
Griff, you’ve been coming here long enough now to have glommed the fact that when someone makes a claim of a particular scientific conclusion, some credible references are required that confirm observation or experimentation that supports said claim.
You could go a long way to advancing “The Cause TM” by serving up some citations for us skeptics to choke on. So how about it? How committed are you to “The Cause”?
(PS – and similar claims about disappearing rainfall from manmade climate change at the same time, of which there are as many as for increased rainfall, are not acceptable)
https://twitter.com/gerryduker52004/status/1416928084146589696?s=21
Every summer there is a heat wave some where and Cli-Mann-ists cry Climate Change!……and then temps return to average and they say nothing.
From the post:”As Klaus implies, the physical evidence shows that human additions of CO2 have a minor impact on earth’s temperature and climate. This has been shown in numerous experiments since John Tyndall in 1859. The experiments are confirmed by observations of the atmosphere.”
If any of this were true then specific heat tables for air and CO2 would have an extra column listing how much energy is required when IR is present. Now there is only one entry.
It takes more energy to raise 2kg of CO2 one degree than 1kg. Disproves the doubling of CO2 nonsense increasing the temperature.
A big increase in 30-day SOI.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
Niño 3.4
They Feel So Threatened By The Truth | Graham Hancock – YouTube
“Perhaps this time it will show flooding of FDR Drive in Manhattan as James Hansen predicted it would occur by now.”
He was talking the West Side Highway. The FDR Drive is on the east side of Manhattan.
Like that’s never happened before.
“Unfortunately, [in ante-bellum NY] it wasn’t [only] the ground-water below that was contaminated with fecal matter. It was also the surface waters: the waters that lapped at the shores, flooded over the island, and stagnated in puddles on New Yorkers’ streets and in their cellars… Even before the city had been established, the low-lying, narrow island had been regularly inundated by the sea. The Lenape, the island’s [earlier] inhabitants, who’d been displaced by the Dutch, had been able to paddle their canoes from one side [the Hudson river] straight to the other at high tide. In the Winters, [this was still during the Little Ice Age], ice skaters could glide from today’s City Hall to Greenwich Village and out to the Hudson… 19th century… War and urban development had razed the high ground and blocked the streams and canals that might have carried flood-waters away. After the Revolutionary War, nearly half of the island’s trees had been burned down, in forest fires and in the frenzy of re-building that occurred afterward. The island, wrote George Washington in 1781, was «totally stripped of Trees, & wood of every kind». The only thing left was «low bushes». The Northern part of the island, which had been dotted with more than 500 distinct hills (inspiration for the Lenape name for the island, «Mannahatta», or «island of many hills»), was flattened.” — Sonia Shah 2016 _Pandemic_ pp64-65