UAH6.0 Global Mean Temperature. Source Wood for Trees.

Shivering Europeans Urged to Keep the Faith on Global Warming

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

As the global temperatures continue their obstinate refusal to conform with alarmist predictions, climate scientists are urging people experiencing last month’s bitterly cold European Spring weather to keep believing.

2021 European Cold Spring Does Not Mean Climate Change Is Fake

Emanuela Barbiroglio
May 19, 2021,04:14pm EDT

April 2021 was the coldest since 2003 for Europe, with a monthly average temperature 0.9°C below the 1991-2020 average. What should you say to family members doubting climate change because they see snow around them?

First of all, April 2021 was not the first April month since 2003 that was colder than average. In April 2017, Europe experienced wintery conditions that bear a lot of resemblance to what we saw last month, with a Europe-wide monthly temperature 0.7°C below average.

Also, globally, April 2021 was 0.2°C warmer than average, although not as warm as in the past 5 years (2016-2020) and as in 2010.

According to climate reanalysis scientist Julien Nicolas, who is working on temperature monitoring at the EU Copernicus climate change service (C3S), “one should not lose sight of the big picture”.

Nicolas points out that “the cold April weather in Europe came on the heels of a warm spell in late March that brought record high temperatures in parts of Europe” and adds: “the fact that the climate is warming does not mean that Europe cannot experience cold April months, it means that such months are becoming less and less likely”.

Read more: https://www.forbes.com/sites/emanuelabarbiroglio/2021/05/19/2021-european-cold-spring-does-not-mean-climate-change-is-fake/

Of course, only cold weather events are treated as local anomalies. Heatwaves are part of the big picture, right? Back in March, the localised heatwave weather in Europe was treated as unequivocal evidence of global warming.

Monthly temperature records smashed in Europe beneath sprawling heat dome

At least three countries broke all-time March records

By  Matthew Cappucci April 2, 2021 at 3:06 a.m. GMT+10

Temperatures in much of Europe are running 20 degrees or more above average as an early-season heat dome, a strong high-pressure system several miles up in the atmosphere that traps heat below, remains parked over the area. Monthly records have fallen in at least three countries as the region gets a taste of what could be another anomalously hot summer in store.

It’s the latest in a series of heat records that are disproportionately outpacing the occurrence of cold extremes, largely the product of a changing climate and a planet whose temperatures are skewed hot.

Read More: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/04/01/europe-record-warm-heat/

If people who predict imminent cooling are right, we can all look forward to more backflips and hilarious efforts to reassure the climate faithful in years to come.

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Rory Forbes
May 23, 2021 10:29 pm

I hate to rain on anyone’s parade, but I have to say it; that graph doesn’t shed any light on “climate” of any stripe. But then, I’ll warrant it was not intended to. To an honest person it just indicates a reasonably common cross section of natural variability, something one could find with nearly any 30 year sample of the past century and a half. To a warmunist it’s a disaster.

n.n
Reply to  Rory Forbes
May 23, 2021 10:41 pm

So, no parade, no pride, no lion, lionesses, and their cubs. Misinformation… Nye, disinformation.

Loydo
Reply to  Rory Forbes
May 24, 2021 12:19 am

Considering the forcing trend over the last few decades, honest person wouldn’t present some brief, localised cold weather as evidence of globalimminent cooling” either.

Graemethecat
Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 12:27 am

So, next time there is a heatwave, you won’t lecture us on the warming trend?

Loydo
Reply to  Graemethecat
May 24, 2021 12:54 am

Graeme, sharing data is not lecturing. Here is some more “imminent cooling” data for you to roll around on your tongue.

http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/images/2020/figures/SoTC2020_Temp_Heatevents.png

Graemethecat
Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 2:15 am

You honestly believe the BOM? Really?

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/19/in-australia-faulty-bom-temperature-sensors-contribute-to-hottest-year-ever/

There is plenty of other evidence for BOM’s mendacity if you want it.

MarkW
Reply to  Graemethecat
May 24, 2021 5:56 am

Loydo believes whoever she’s paid to believe.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  MarkW
May 24, 2021 5:38 pm

Alice laughed: “There’s no use trying,” she said; “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”

If you’re a warmulist, believing impossible things is effortless.

Reply to  MarkW
May 25, 2021 8:51 am

And Loydo slinks back into the shadows.

Richard Page
Reply to  Graemethecat
May 24, 2021 7:03 am

2 things about that – If BOM told me it was raining and cold out, I would automatically assume I should wear shorts and sunglasses. Also the BOM Australian thermometers are not faulty – they are deliberately set up to capture temperature spikes that other thermometers everywhere else in the world are set to average out over a 5 or 10 minute series of measurements.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 4:22 am

🤣

Yooper
Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 6:22 am

…Late-season snow across the northern Rockies slowly winding down today
but resuming Tuesday night…

Farmer Ch E retired
Reply to  Yooper
May 24, 2021 6:05 pm

Not to mention the USCRN of state-of-the-art weather stations – No warming trend to be found. It’s not just the Europeans that need to “Keep the Faith.”

Climate Evaluations jpg.jpg
Last edited 3 months ago by Farmer Ch E retired
meab
Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 8:13 am

You’re picking and choosing, LoyD’oh.

Here’s the data from the U.S. Note that the unsmoothed data shows peaks in the high temperature records (hot daily highs) in the 1930s, 1950s, 1980, 1988, and 2012. What this shows is weather is highly variable, and even when the data is smoothed, the 1930s had as many extreme hot days as now. It’s the daily lows that are clearly warming. Nothing to get your knickers in a twist over.

comment image

Last edited 3 months ago by meab
philincalifornia
Reply to  meab
May 24, 2021 4:00 pm

Thanks for posting that. I’ve seen a lot of the hot daily lows talked about, without any data or attribution given. One thing though – I think I’ve got it but, just to be sure, could you or anyone else expand on exactly what the y-axis legend means? TIA.

Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 12:38 am

Remember that Loydo. As the power blackouts hit next winter during “global warming” and Germans freeze in their dark electric-only homes I will remind you the consequences of weather whilst believing in climate change nonsense. I can wait.

Loydo
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
May 24, 2021 1:00 am

 “..;.the oh too obvious cool summers and cold winters.”

Mmm, see Nick’s graphs below.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 4:24 am

We will expect a year long grovelling apology if the Grand solar minimum people are right.

MarkW
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
May 24, 2021 5:57 am

Like most leftists, by the time the scam finally falls apart, they have moved on the the next scam and will deny that they ever supported the previous scam.

Kent Clizbe
Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 5:04 am

“…the forcing trend over the last few decades…”

As Lenin so elegantly couched it: “Who, whom?”

Who/What is forcing whom/what?

Yes, “forcing” occurred over the last few decades.

The forcing is political not climactic.

MarkW
Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 5:55 am

This from the guy who proclaims every warm blip as proof of global warming.

David Noel Chorley
Reply to  MarkW
May 25, 2021 4:41 pm

Could someone address the warm blip that the Independent (sic) is claiming is warming up the Permafrost IN SIBERIA AND WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE BECAUSE MASS EXTINCTIONZ

Tom Kennedy
Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 6:48 am

There is something really strange about Australian warmunists.

Loydo – the following looks normal to you right?

¿ʇɥbıɹ ‘noʎ oʇ ןɐɯɹou sʞooן sıɥʇ

Peter Plail
Reply to  Tom Kennedy
May 24, 2021 8:35 am

Oh, he’s Australian. That explains everything.

Mr.
Reply to  Peter Plail
May 24, 2021 10:31 am

Or nothing.

Lrp
Reply to  Peter Plail
May 24, 2021 12:32 pm

And lives in far North East Queensland, probably Townsville; probably a public serpent with a local council

Richard Page
Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 7:08 am

Loydo – don’t you listen to people here trying to tell you what to believe. You do your own thing and if that means never using your intelligence or thinking then that’ll work for you. Never forget that you are a wonderful individual in your own right and your opinion is as equally valid as someone that actually knows what they’re talking about. You do your thing.

Leo Smith
Reply to  Richard Page
May 24, 2021 7:37 am

Ooh. You bitch!

Mega LOL

Eoin Mc
Reply to  Richard Page
May 24, 2021 5:08 pm

Richard… Thats hilarious… Beautuful example of gas lighting. Hopefully Loydo is a snowflake who will be triggered by your genius

Graemethecat
Reply to  Eoin Mc
May 25, 2021 12:37 am

Loydo is far too dumb to detect the sarcasm.

Peter Plail
Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 8:32 am

It wasn’t presented as evidence of cooling, you are seeing something that isn’t there.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 10:45 am

I understand your confusion. It comes from years of listening to BS and believing it is science. Clearly you haven’t the vaguest idea what climate is or how to look at data and gain insight. You just stay triple masked in your little corner of the world and wait for your next instructions.

Lrp
Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 12:25 pm

What forcing? What forces what?

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Lrp
May 24, 2021 5:40 pm

“Forcing” is what causes turds (or so I’ve been lead to believe).

Robert of Texas
Reply to  Rory Forbes
May 24, 2021 10:07 am

Cherry picked start date as well. Show all of the data, not some tiny chunk of it.

Somewhere in an article on the site a person (or persons) predicted back around 2018-2019 there would be cooling starting in the early 2020’s. I cannot wait to see what next year brings – if they pegged this I will be impressed.

Richard Page
Reply to  Robert of Texas
May 24, 2021 2:05 pm

I might agree with you. Somewhere at the back of my mind is a conversation I had with someone several years ago in which they mentioned that there were repeated patterns in the warm/cold cycles which showed up in the temperature record on a fairly regular interval. He indicated that we should probably see the current warm temperatures dropping off to a lower level, staying fairly much at that level for some years (20-30 odd years I think) then a gradual decline into a cold period after that.
Wish I could remember where I saw it now.

Last edited 3 months ago by Richard Page
Rory Forbes
Reply to  Robert of Texas
May 24, 2021 5:45 pm

We can but wait and see … but so far things have not been going well for the AGW true believers. More and more people are on to them. They’ve cried wolf too many times to be as trusted as they were.

May 23, 2021 10:32 pm

The ability to predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence.
Climate doomsters have a perfect NEGATIVE predictive track record – every very-scary climate prediction, of the ~80 they have made since 1970, has FAILED TO HAPPEN.
 
“Rode and Fischbeck, professor of Social & Decision Sciences and Engineering & Public Policy, collected 79 predictions of climate-caused apocalypse going back to the first Earth Day in 1970. With the passage of time, many of these forecasts have since expired; the dates have come and gone uneventfully. In fact, 48 (61%) of the predictions have already expired as of the end of 2020.”
 
To end 2020, the climate doomsters were proved wrong in their scary climate predictions 48 times – at 50:50 odds for each prediction, that’s like flipping a coin 48 times and losing every time! The probability of that being mere random stupidity is 1 in 281 trillion! It’s not just global warming scientists being stupid.
 
These climate doomsters were not telling the truth – they displayed a dishonest bias in their analyses that caused these extremely improbable falsehoods, these frauds.
 
There is a powerful logic that says no rational person or group could be this wrong for this long – they followed a corrupt agenda – in fact, they knew they were lying.
 
The global warming alarmists have a NO predictive track record – they have been 100% wrong about every scary climate prediction – nobody should believe them.
 
The radical greens have NO credibility, make that NEGATIVE credibility – their core competence is propaganda, the fabrication of false alarm.
 
Source:
CLIMATE CHANGE, COVID-19, AND THE GREAT RESET
A Climate, Energy and Covid Primer for Politicians and Media
By Allan M.R. MacRae, Published May 8, 2021 UPDATE 1e
Download the WORD file
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/climate-change-covid-19-and-the-great-reset-update-1e-readonly.docx

___________________________
 
Allan MacRae published in the Calgary Herald on September 1, 2002, based on communication with Dr Tim Patterson:
 
3. “If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
 
MacRae updated his global cooling prediction in 2013, based on cold events that occurred starting circa 2008 near the end of Solar Cycle 23:
 
3a. “I suggest global cooling starts by 2020 or sooner. Bundle up.”
 
In 2019, expert meteorologist Joseph D’Aleo and I co-authored a paper describing the late planting in 2018 and 2019 and the huge Great Plains crop failure of 2019 due to cold, wet weather.
THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED  October 27, 2019
Planting was ~one month across the Great Plains of North America for crop years 2018 and 2019. In 2018 the growing season was warm and the crop recovered, but in 2019 there was a huge crop failure across the Great Plains. In 2019 fully 30% of the huge USA corn crop was never planted because of wet ground. Much of the grain crop across the Great Plains was severely harmed because of early cold and snow in the Fall.
 
We saw these very-cold weather patterns due to the instability of the polar vortex at the end of SC23 circa 2008, and this enabled me in 2013 to re-calibrate our 2002 global cooling prediction from “2020-2030” to “2020 or sooner”, at the end of much weaker SC24. A huge crop failure across the Great Plains of North America occurred in 2019. Now we have this brutal winter and very cold spring in 2020-2021. Nailed it.
 
Crop losses are already significant this year. Worrisome.
 
Best regards, Allan
 
Meanwhile, back at the ranch…
 
COLORADO BREAKS MULTIPLE COLD RECORDS + DENVER SUFFERS ITS SECOND-LONGEST SNOWFALL SEASON SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
May 12, 2021 Cap Allon
You’d forgive CO residents for thinking the climate was actually cooling!–But I’m sure they know better than to trust their own eyes and real-world observations — after all, it’s those ‘supercomputer-generated’ climate models that dictate reality, not natural variability, not the Sun… (sarc!).
 
CENTRAL RUSSIA EXPERIENCES RECORD SPRING SNOW, AS CRIMEA SUFFERS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD APRIL
April 30, 2021 Cap Allon
Global warming’ continues to be demonized by the IPCC, the MSM, and those hokey pop-scientists, yet heat has only-ever proved beneficial for life on our planet — it’s the cold that gets us.
 
EARLY-SEASON BLIZZARDS HIT AUSTRALIA + A POWERFUL POLAR OUTBREAK IN THE FORECAST
May 13, 2021 Cap Allon
In recent years, Australia’s climate has been changing — for the cooler and wetter. And early-season snows have become far more common. #GrandSolarMinimum
 
HISTORIC COLD SPREADS ACROSS THE U.S. BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FROM THE 1800S
May 13, 2021 Cap Allon
Plus, Europe looks set for more unprecedented lows and historic late-May snows. Bundle up. Spring 2021 is a no show.
With the official start of summer less than 40 days away, an unseasonably cold air mass is currently gripping large areas of the United States, dropping temperatures some 25 degrees F below seasonal averages.
As reported by CNN weather, these temperatures are more in line with what you should expect in mid-March, not mid-May.

1

U.S. HAS SET 17,450 NEW LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS THIS YEAR VS 13,886 HIGH + SINABUNG EXPLODES INTO THE STRATOSPHERE
May 17, 2021 Cap Allon
Furthermore, the U.S. ALL TIME records summary reveals that 223 new unprecedented, never-before-observed low temperature benchmarks have been busted this year, versus the solitary 1 for all-time record highs. This disparity between cold records and hot records has only been increasing in the month of May.
Told you so, 19 years ago…   Nailed it.
 
FIVE MAJOR DATASETS SHOW GLOBAL COOLING, AS CARBON BRIEF IS CAUGHT LYING TO THE PUBLIC
May 17, 2021 Cap Allon
Climate Change headlines are built around narratives, not facts. Most sheeple are easily fooled by illogically-linear charts and phony correlations.
The Global Lower Tropospheric Temperature Anomaly has cooled 0.64C in 14 months, from an anomaly of +0.59C in February 2020 to only -0.05C in April 2021.
 
RECORD BREAKING COLD BLASTS AUSTRALIA AND CANADA: “GLOBAL” COOLING
May 20, 2021 Cap Allon
Arctic air continues to descend unusually-far south, while Antarctic air continues to ride anomalously-far north. The culprit is low solar activity, namely its weakening of the jet streams, and the upshot is COOLING across the lower-latitudes (where us humans reside).
Not since the year 1967 has Sydney experienced a colder streak in May.
In Kamloops and the Okanagan, British Columbia, record-breaking overnight lows for this date were logged.
 
DELHI, INDIA SUFFERS COLDEST MAY DAY IN 70 YEARS + EARTH HAS COOLED 0.8C SINCE 2016
May 20, 2021 Cap Allon 
This COOLING trend is expected to accelerate over the coming months and years as the Sun continues its relative shutdown. Prepare for the Grand Solar Minimum.
 

TheFinalNail
May 23, 2021 10:37 pm

As the UAH chart starts at the peak of a big El Nino and ends in the current La Nina trough, it looks quite flat. However, that disguises warming of +0.11C per decade over the period shown. This becomes more obvious when the trend line is added.

UAH since 1998 with trend.JPG
Reply to  TheFinalNail
May 23, 2021 11:11 pm

+1.1 ºC/century. Call me “unimpressed.”

Ron Long
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
May 24, 2021 2:24 am

Also call it recovery from the Little Ice Age.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
May 24, 2021 9:11 am

HADCRUT NH & UAH

to_1979.png
Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
May 24, 2021 9:19 am

And if we superimpose the AMO index on top of that:

HADCRUT plus UAH plus AMO.png
JamesD
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
May 24, 2021 9:26 am

Nice. Also, change the Y axis range from +1 to -1, and the natural cycle really pops out.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
May 24, 2021 1:18 pm

Looks awfully like a sin wave if remarkably stable, natural variability, doesn’t it?

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Rory Forbes
May 24, 2021 11:09 pm

Mmmm, yup.
Sure does.

Julian Flood
Reply to  TheFinalNail
May 23, 2021 11:18 pm

Yes it rather understates the warming rate by 0.3 deg C, a longer period would show around 1.4 per century.
Wasn’t there an hysterical forecast of over 3 deg by someone or other?

JF

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  TheFinalNail
May 24, 2021 12:27 am

Normal recovery from the LIA. See MWP.

Peter K
Reply to  TheFinalNail
May 24, 2021 2:36 am

Start the trend line from 0.35, where it should be, and see the difference.

Weekly_rise
Reply to  Peter K
May 24, 2021 6:12 am

You don’t just start trend lines from wherever feels good, the trend is calculated as the line that minimizes the square of the differences between each point in the series and the line.

Herbert
Reply to  TheFinalNail
May 24, 2021 2:54 am

From 1998 to date, you are acknowledging a decadal rate of 0.11C over the period.
Go to woodfortrees.org and click on “Notes”.
Now scroll down to “Temperature trends- pick a timescale, any time scale.”
“After many requests,I finally added trend lines,(linear least-squares regression) to the graph generator. I hope this is useful,but I would also like to point out that it can be fairly dangerous….
Depending on your preconceptions,by picking your start and end times carefully,you can now “prove”that-
.Temperature is falling!
.Temperature is static!
Temperature is rising!
.Temperature is rising really fast!”
He then shows all of the trend lines, GISSTemp,HadCru4,RSS mean,UAH6 mean,etc.
“If you look at the trend data,you can see the current trend in degrees C, between 0.13C-0.17C/ decade, or,if it continues at the same rate,between 1.3C and 1.7C per century.”
Or in your post,1.1C per century.
How does the UN IPCC justify the claim we are “on track” for 2C by 2050 or even by 2100?
A blatant deception.

Peter K
Reply to  Herbert
May 24, 2021 3:22 am

Sorry I am not a fan of “woodfortrees”. The temperature data back to 1880 keeps being altered. Also the “sunspot” graph is in fact a graph using “solar flux” data.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  TheFinalNail
May 24, 2021 3:42 am

Last month was no warmer than the warmest month of 1980.
But 1980 was at the bottom of a 30 year global cooling trend.

The overall big picture is, that we are not in any long term trend one way or another, but rather, all signs point to an ongoing series of cyclical fluctuations.
IOW, exactly what people like me and other skeptics have been saying for the entire length of this decades long charade.

Only the various “adjustments”, and other lies, would lead anyone to believe otherwise.comment image

An unbiased look at what has been measured by all means over more than a hundred years, shows little if any over all trend.
And all of this is vs the backdrop of a large and abrupt upswing in atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Name one warmista who allowed for the possibility of April 2021 matching any month in the cold 1970-1980 period.
There are none who did so.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_April_2021_v6.jpgcomment image

dbstealeyco2vst.png
Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
May 24, 2021 3:46 am

Spice this onto the UAH graph and what must one conclude?comment image

UAH_LT_1979_thru_April_2021_v6.jpg
Richard M
Reply to  TheFinalNail
May 24, 2021 5:49 am

One can only wonder if you are intentionally trying to mislead people or simply not very bright.

The first few months of El Nino are more than offset by nearly 3 years of La Nina conditions afterward. The last few months of La Nina are more than offset by 6 years of primarily El Nino caused warmer oceans.

It isn’t just the first few months that have a large influence on the trend. Overall, ENSO influence is to add to the warming seen in the trend.

MarkW
Reply to  TheFinalNail
May 24, 2021 5:58 am

Let’s see what the trend line looks like when the rest of the 1996 El Nino is added to it.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  TheFinalNail
May 24, 2021 11:55 am

Thanks for showing me directly how climate trolls build that strawman up to knock it down. I have only seen that trick from the propaganda team and not on WUWT where the starting spike is omitted. Such tricks don’t work here.

Lrp
Reply to  TheFinalNail
May 24, 2021 12:45 pm

0.11 is measurement error

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Lrp
May 24, 2021 2:05 pm

Ah … but they never fail to use an arbitrary multiplier to make it appear larger. They add an order of magnitude and say … 1.1 degrees in ONLY ten years. It isn’t what you report, but HOW you report it.

Last edited 3 months ago by Rory Forbes
Carlo, Monte
Reply to  TheFinalNail
May 24, 2021 6:17 pm

Where is the hockey stick?

n.n
May 23, 2021 10:38 pm

It’s Her choice. Gaia’s choice. To humanity’s relief, not that Choice.

That said, In Stork They Trust to deliver them from their “burden”.

Neil Jordan
May 23, 2021 10:44 pm

With reference to the previous post on climate change alarmism as class war, crop failures in a cooling world can be prevented by refrigerating spring wheat seeds, converting them to winter wheat seeds. For readers who have learned history, \sarc is not needed. For readers who have no clue about history, \sarc will not help.

gringojay
Reply to  Neil Jordan
May 23, 2021 11:17 pm

There are different genetics in spring and winter wheat. For example: spring wheat has at least 1 (up to 3) dominant genes, while at those same loci there are recessive alleles in winter wheat. Their respective genetics would not be “converting” due to refrigeration.

Reply to  gringojay
May 24, 2021 12:00 am

Gringojay, you get ✔++ for knowing your wheat seed genetics.

Reply to  gringojay
May 24, 2021 5:53 am

Gringojay is in need of re-education in the Gulag, if he is ever to be shaped into a New Soviet Man.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Neil Jordan
May 23, 2021 11:34 pm

Annnnnnd….

The first comment did indeed miss the entire point!

May 23, 2021 10:55 pm

The next several years are going to give the Climate Alarmists and the various national-level Adjustment Bureaus fits with keeping up the narrative and pushing propaganda against the oh too obvious cool summers and cold winters.
Expect this “colder is still climate change” charade and volume of rhetoric from the adjustment bureaus to get worse as nature doesn’t give a crap about climate pseudoscience’s religious dogma and IPCC scriptures.

Even here in Tucson Arizona at the moment, it’s a Sunday night in late May and the air temp is 65 ºF and headed to about 55 ºF by just before sunrise under a very bright waxing gibbous Moon. I’m sitting on my patio drinking a malted adult beverage throwing the ball for my two Malinois into the dark grass area and wearing a hoodie sweatshirt to keep from getting the chills. Totally bizarre for late May in Tucson, but I love it as it means my electricty bill will stay below average as this coolness continues in this coming week.

John V. Wright
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
May 23, 2021 11:19 pm

Yes Joel – and here in the UK (where April was indeed a colder-than-average month with 25 days of frost) we are also experiencing a dismal, chilly and rain-soaked May. I keep telling my sad-eyed friends at the golf club: “What do you expect guys – the glaciers are on their way…..”.

Reply to  John V. Wright
May 24, 2021 1:09 am

Rain-soaked in Burgundy as well. To date this month the rain gauge is showing 180mm.
MeteoFrance has both maxima and minima below the long-term average.
Just weather of course. Same as the heatwaves are just weather. Does anyone really believe that atmospheric CO2 controls temperature?

Gary Ashe
Reply to  Newminster
May 24, 2021 4:51 am

Yeah millions of millennials do.

MACK
Reply to  John V. Wright
May 24, 2021 3:47 am

Show them this:comment image Volatility is normal.

donald penman
Reply to  MACK
May 24, 2021 8:13 am

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
-0.05 up to yesterday the average CET so far.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
May 24, 2021 3:50 am

All the way down here in Southwest Florida this morning, the temp outside is a very cool 61°F, and the dewpoint is a very unseasonable 58°F.

May 23, 2021 11:07 pm

Here is the Copernicus graph associated with that report (lower one)
comment image

April was certainly a turnaround from March. But as cold months go, it was not exceptional.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 23, 2021 11:17 pm

Volks in Germany should be celebrating they don’t have to use as much of today’s quite expensive electricity to heat their homes in the 2021 Springtime as they did 20 years ago when electricity rates were still reasonable.

In 1985 and 1986 renting a lovely stream-side cottage in Kingsclere England near RAF Greenham Common, I froze my butt off in two miserable summers. I got to Tucson Arizona in March 1987 on reassignment and thought I’d gone to heaven with all the bikini clad young women all over the apartment complex pools as a young Air Force Lt.

Last edited 3 months ago by joelobryan
Editor
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
May 23, 2021 11:52 pm

Joel

I used to work at Greenham common and lived very close by. If only you had been there in 1975 and 1976. We had two lovely summers in a row.

Reply to  tonyb
May 23, 2021 11:56 pm

I was in Cambridge summer 75, and Swansea summer 85. It was indeed a contrast.

whiten
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 24, 2021 12:31 am

Tell us about your hair then, please please… Nick… indeed.

Reply to  tonyb
May 24, 2021 12:08 am

Oh I was there during the lovely “CND” years with all the beautiful “women” in camps surrounding the fence lines. I was one of those evil “finger on the launch button” types then. Fun times really for a young officer to be in the middle of all that drama. The convoys out to train for 2 weeks “camping” on Salisbury Plain with our missile TELs and armored launch control centers were quite the adventure.

Last edited 3 months ago by joelobryan
Coeur de Lion
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
May 24, 2021 1:49 am

Interesting. I always understood that the Greenham GLCMs were ‘single release’ ie the Brits weren’t involved so that the deterrence logic would involve the USAs central strategic systems, the whole point of the exercise.

griff
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
May 24, 2021 12:35 am

Germany just cut its green tariff… though most of what they pay is tax, not related at all to renewables. And they have more efficient appliances, etc, so use less electricity by far than US households, plus they often have solar panels or shares in a wind farm

Trying to Play Nice
Reply to  griff
May 24, 2021 6:01 am

Griff, I’ve seen the more efficient appliances in Europe. The refrigerators require a shopping trip every day and the washers and dryers require doing laundry every day. I prefer my large refrigerators and large washer and dryer. And my house is larger and more comfortable than most in Europe, so of course I expect to use more energy.

Last edited 3 months ago by Trying to Play Nice
Drake
Reply to  Trying to Play Nice
May 24, 2021 9:10 am

And if free enterprise was truly free, you would be provided with access to whatever “energy” you required at a reasonable price, and definitely less than you are currently paying with the government manipulating WHAT forms of energy you are required to pay for.

Our local paper (Las Vegas Review Journal) editorial today discussed the cost of the EPA required 10% minimum ethanol that adds upwards of 30 cents US to the cost of a gallon of gas. This hidden tax is more than the US highway taxes on a gallon of gas. With the fear that the OBiden EPA would increase the minimum to 15% and Musk’s desire to be able to sell ethanol offsets in addition to his fleet “carbon” offsets.

Max P
Reply to  Drake
May 24, 2021 1:03 pm

With that 10% ethanol you also get the added bonus of lower gas mileage on top of paying more per gallon.

And, to the ethanol groupies out there who will try and dispute the lower gas mileage claim I can only go by my own experience tracking the gas mileage of my own vehicles over time.

MaxP

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Max P
May 24, 2021 2:15 pm

Then add to that the ludicrous increase in corn based foods … because some moron decided to use food to fuel cars. Now a principle staple of the human diet is subject to the CO2 fraud.

Mardler
Reply to  griff
May 24, 2021 6:10 am

The appliances are not more efficient but newer ones are lower wattage under EU law. The great unwashed don’t understand the physics just 1500 watts must be better than 3000: you appear to be one of them.

Drake
Reply to  Mardler
May 24, 2021 9:18 am

Much of higher efficiency in refrigeration is the size of the coil. A lower watt refer can keep cool running for LONGER, similar energy usage overall, but runs more.

BUT, when the world temperature continues to rise, and those Europeans can’t run their household AC systems due to the incredibly high electricity prices, the lower watt refrigerator WILL NOT be able to keep the food cool due to the high ambient temperatures in the house during the more frequent and ever higher temperature hot spells.

I hope the sarc tag is not required for the rising temperature part.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Drake
May 24, 2021 2:19 pm

It’s not uncommon for AGW true believers to be deficient in fundamental physics. One doesn’t get to look at only one factor by cherry picking only the facts you want to look at.

Leo Smith
Reply to  griff
May 24, 2021 8:09 am

Germany? The European country that emits the most CO2 per country, per capita and per MWh? And whose electricity costs three times that of nuclear France?

I would be wary of using Germany as an example of anything except the utter faulure of renewable energy.

Climate believer
Reply to  Leo Smith
May 24, 2021 11:08 am

That’s probably the same Germany that couldn’t even produce 10GW of wind generated electricity over a 10 day period this month due to…well…a lack of wind.

That’s with a nameplate windmill park (inshore and offshore) of 63GW.

Good job their neighbours were there to help them out.

Lrp
Reply to  Leo Smith
May 24, 2021 12:58 pm

Yes, but the most virtue signalling country

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Lrp
May 24, 2021 2:25 pm

Vell, ist Churman efficiency, verstehen? Zere vill be no diskussion
.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Leo Smith
May 25, 2021 6:56 am

Thy do make the best cheat software for vehicles though.

Chris Hanley
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 23, 2021 11:30 pm

UAH April temperatures look somewhat colder at least for much of Europe:
comment image

Reply to  Chris Hanley
May 23, 2021 11:41 pm

May will be worse I suspect.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
May 23, 2021 11:58 pm

No, May is looking much warmer.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 24, 2021 12:15 am

maybe “slightly not as cold” would be a better descriptor. Summer could very well be ‘on holiday’ in much of Europe for 2021.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
May 25, 2021 7:47 am

As in solar minimum effects on NH summer

steve
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 24, 2021 1:28 am

Here in Dorset in southern England we haven’t had a single day that has reached over 19 degrees yet this year. It is nearly the end of May with the forecast that it is not changing just yet. Certainly a cold spring down here.

Renaud
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 24, 2021 1:53 am

And to continue on what Steve wrote, in Belgium we had only one day where temperature reached above 20°C (68F) in April (the 1st following that “heat wave” of 4 days end of March) and one day in May (the 8th, luckily a Sunday!) and no temperature forecasted where temperature will go, just for one or 2 hours above 20°C ) for the next week.

Temperature for last 30 days are 2.5°C below 30 years trend and that is the case since beginning of April (it was even 3.5°C below 30 years trend beginning of May) and we have the average 30 days temperature of the very beginning of May currently !

Where are all the titles in the media as when temperature are 3 weeks in advance ??

Derg
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 24, 2021 2:54 am

Warmest evah 😉

Gary Ashe
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 24, 2021 5:00 am

Utter bullshit, you forget we all know what last may was like as we were locked down and spent may in our gardens,…..

This year is dire compared to last year and i dont give a flying f. what your ”adjusted” data sources tell you nick.

Last edited 3 months ago by Gary Ashe
LdB
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 24, 2021 6:24 pm

It’s gonna be huge I tell you
How big Nick?
This big people |==================|

Editor
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 23, 2021 11:50 pm

Nick

Lets agree it was purely weather. However lumping in all European temperatures is a little like lumping together all global sea changes. It hides what is happening in various countries.

For example the April in the UK was said to be the coldest since 1922. In Germany and other countries they were also rather low.

In the CET we can see that since the turn of the century the trend is just about flat or very slightly rising but with a number of months bucking the trend.

March was quite warm and May has been very chilly. I still turn my central heating on for at least an hour or two each day.

But it is just weather and whether there is any longer term significance we will not know until the longer term has been and gone

tonyb

Renaud
Reply to  tonyb
May 24, 2021 1:54 am

In Belgium, coldest April since 1986. Hey 1986 was cited as cold year above in other comments.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  tonyb
May 25, 2021 7:02 am

“Trend is just about flat” ……..as in turning point of the AMO? or bottoming of the solar minimum or both?

R E Barraclough
Reply to  tonyb
May 25, 2021 3:23 pm

For the CET area, April (6.43 C) was the coldest since 1986 (5.8 C)
1922 was even colder (5.5 C)

Mike
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 23, 2021 11:52 pm

And here are the temp graphs for C Europe going back a bit. What goes up must come down.

centraleuropetemps.JPG
Last edited 3 months ago by Mike
Renaud
Reply to  Mike
May 24, 2021 1:58 am

This is incredible and excellent ! A part from Paris, but Paris must be 10 times more populated than in 1800, it shows that temperatures around 1800 were not that different from current temperatures ! What about all this CO2 ?!

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Renaud
May 24, 2021 3:56 am

The entire US looks about the same: No trend over the entirety of the time series.

B Clarke
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 24, 2021 12:57 am

Not really ,the devil is in the detail, the first 10 days of march in the UK were below average temps ,only 5he last 3 days showed a anomalous of 24c max ,

Yesterday and Saturday it was 7c mid day and the rest of daylight hrs now thats a anomalous cold reading in a otherwise cool may ,

David A
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 24, 2021 2:59 am

…as all such manipulated cherry picked graphics, starts right at the peak of the ice age scare.

Climate believer
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 24, 2021 3:56 am

“But as cold months go, it was not exceptional.”

Cold months? you mean cold Aprils or any cold month?
What is your definition of exceptional, every 5,10, 15 or 20 years?

Over the last 20 years the extra 47ppm of CO² in the atmosphere seems to have had little effect on April temperatures in France. No trend whatsoever.

Why is that?

The graph shows average temps taken from 30 stations spread out all over France for April 2000-2021. It also shows average Max and Min for the same period.

Infoclimat-indicateur-national-moyenne.png
Climate believer
Reply to  Climate believer
May 24, 2021 4:24 am

May is the same:

Infoclimat-indicateur-national-moyenne (1).png
Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Climate believer
May 24, 2021 1:00 pm

May certainly looks like obvious downward trend

Reply to  Climate believer
May 24, 2021 8:44 pm

“you mean cold Aprils or any cold month?”
Either. March 2018 was quite a lot colder. And April 2017 seems almost as cold.

Mr.
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 24, 2021 9:07 am

Nick, as 200-year weather functions anywhere go, nothing being shown for the past 40 years is exceptional.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 24, 2021 6:25 pm

Let me try this again: where is the hockey stick?

Where is the emergency that requires emasculating all of Western society?

LdB
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 24, 2021 6:27 pm

There was no warming trend in that data either, analysis would say you are simply looking at wobble about a mean.

Redge
May 23, 2021 11:11 pm

As the global temperatures continue their obstinate refusal to conform with alarmist predictions

Eric, you know full well hot temperatures and cold temperatures are perfectly consistent with global warming predictions

Julian Flood
May 23, 2021 11:14 pm

It is, of course, just weather, as was the spring of 2017 where the cold dragged on and on. Then, as now, we had our central heating on well into what is normally early summer. Minister for Energy and Climate Change was saved from the collapse of the Gas Grid by the just in time arrival of two LNG tankers from the Middle East.
The UK has trillions of CH4 but refuses to allow its extraction. Last month the wind turbine fleet was regularly producing less than 1GW from a capacity of 24GW.

There is a new Minister in charge now. The old one was a polite young man called Matthew Hancock who didn’t even know that renewables require storage or backup, so not exactly on top of his brief. I wonder what happened to him.

JF

Editor
Reply to  Julian Flood
May 23, 2021 11:57 pm

Julian

I do think that Matt is the spiritual descendant of Tony Hancock. The antics of the govt and Matt in particular would have made a very good episode of “Hancock’s Half Hour.”

Hancock; “So you mean you can’t just store all this lovely renewable electricity in cardboard boxes and use it when needed? I had arranged with Sid to buy space in a warehouse he owns stuffed full of other boxes . Strange he won’t tell me what’s in them”.

tonyb

Dave Andrews
Reply to  tonyb
May 24, 2021 8:30 am

Sid can’t tell you what’s in the boxes because they contain out of date PPE that he’s waiting to offload whenever a pandemic comes along.

StephenP
Reply to  Julian Flood
May 24, 2021 12:09 am

I’m not sure whether you meant to imply an /s, but Matthew Hancock is now Minister of State for Health I.e. responsible for dealing with Covid 19.

Vincent Causey
May 23, 2021 11:30 pm

How do they explain the fact that if the global average temperature has gone done, then the heat must have left the planet (or gone into the deep blue sea). But climate alarmism is based on the notion that heat is trapped and accumulates, always being added to. If the heat can just disappear, then the whole theory is wrong. Say on a really cold year, an entire decade (or two) worth of heat can just leave the planet.

Reply to  Vincent Causey
May 23, 2021 11:53 pm

Trenberth’s: Lament of the Missing Heat.

  • Gone somewhere it has.
  • Yoda.
Rory Forbes
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
May 24, 2021 2:35 pm

That’s exactly what I was thinking …

“It’s a travesty”, I tell you. Nature must be sent a memo to get in line.

Oddly we don’t seem to hear much from Trenberth any more … a broken man?

Zig Zag Wanderer
May 23, 2021 11:33 pm

Every year will become warmer. Warmer than the next year, and last year will be warmer than this year.

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
May 23, 2021 11:36 pm

Our policies are working.

Reply to  Philip Mulholland
May 23, 2021 11:54 pm

Orwell is laughing somewhere.

Gary Ashe
Reply to  Philip Mulholland
May 24, 2021 5:12 am

Like a successful horse racing system.
”System going great please send more money”

JamesD
Reply to  Philip Mulholland
May 24, 2021 9:46 am

Post of the day.

Simon
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
May 23, 2021 11:41 pm

Every year will become warmer. Warmer than the next year, and last year will be warmer than this year.”
No one says that…. who knows the science.

Graemethecat
Reply to  Simon
May 24, 2021 12:33 am

Read it again more carefully.

Not terribly bright are you, Simon?

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Graemethecat
May 24, 2021 4:25 am

Simple Simon.

Derg
Reply to  Simon
May 24, 2021 2:57 am

Who knows the science?

Please give us 5 names please.

LdB
Reply to  Derg
May 24, 2021 6:37 pm

None of them would include any climate scientist.

Gary Ashe
Reply to  Simon
May 24, 2021 5:15 am

Yeah people like you sim[plet]on people really switched on to ”the science” no fooling you.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
May 24, 2021 2:36 pm

… and everywhere is warming twice as fast as everywhere else.

Matthew Sykes
May 23, 2021 11:36 pm

It was 2000 when I saw the 1C drop in global temperature in a year that I wondered if CO2 was really that powerful and 1C in 100 years was that extreme.

Of course it isnt.

Andy Espersen
May 23, 2021 11:43 pm

I do not think we need “imminent cooling” for the climate faithful to change their tune. Of course I know that during the next couple of thousand years (and possibly now), a new glacial period will commece.

We only need a continuing absence of warming – we only need the continued slow cooling since the climatic maximum about 8000 years ago – when eustatic sea levels were about 2 meters higher than now. Very soon all the inane, unfounded alarm will fizzle out – this is already happening.

You can fool all people some of the time – you can fool some people all of the time – but you cannot fool all people all of the time.

Reply to  Andy Espersen
May 24, 2021 12:55 am

I firmly believe Dr James Hansen at NASA/GISS understood in 1988 he had about 30 year warming climate window to pull off the climate scam with rising temps. Mind you, his intent was to shut down US coal mining, especially the mountain-top coal removal mining in West Virginia that Peabody Coal was doing then. The mountain top removal coal mining in West Virginia was their environmental movemment’s #1 target then.

In 1988, everyone believed “peak” oil and natural gas declines after year 2000 would take care of themselves as regards to CO2 emissions. But in US there are coal reserves that are 100’s of years of extraction capable proven reserves. It was the coal that Hansen wanted to shutdown. Hansen was always okay with nuclear power, to his credit. He wanted WV coal mining shutdown and was willing to lie about the CO2-warming scam to get that done.
But it has beem cheap abundant natural gas that has been the nail in coal’s coffin, not CO2 emissions. Hansen retired from GISS in 2014. He knew “cold” is returning. The only thing that has saved the alarmists butts to this date was the big 2016 El Nino propping up global temps for a few years. That is now long gone and the cooling has returned.

B Clarke
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
May 24, 2021 1:34 am

Yes well said Joel.

Loydo
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
May 24, 2021 3:36 am

“cooling has returned”

Returned? lol Dude you live in a deluded phantasy world.

comment image

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 4:01 am

Ocean heat content?
Haha…you so funny!
Correcting Ocean Cooling (nasa.gov)

Loydo
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
May 24, 2021 9:29 pm

So much “cooling” in the pipline. Bwa hahaha…the Thames will freeze over again at this rate

comment image

Graemethecat
Reply to  Loydo
May 25, 2021 12:47 am

According to your graph, the heat content of the oceans has increased from about 45 ZJ to 250 ZJ between 1980 and 2011, a nearly six-fold increase.

Think about that for a second.

Why do you post such arrant nonsense?

Loydo
Reply to  Graemethecat
May 27, 2021 1:43 am

Its anomaly you dingbat. Take a good hard look the graph again, and see how likely atmospheric “cooling” is anytime soon.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 4:13 am

For some perspective on ocean heat content, I like to refer to our good friend Willis Eschenbach on the subject:
The Ocean Warms By A Whole Little – Watts Up With That?
“It’s a marvelous system, and there are currently just under 4,000 Argo floats actively measuring the ocean … but the ocean is huge beyond imagining, so despite the Argo floats, more than two-thirds of their global ocean gridded monthly data contains exactly zero observations.
And based on that scanty amount of data, which is missing two-thirds of the monthly temperature data from the surface down, we’re supposed to believe that they can measure the top 651,000,000,000,000,000 cubic metres of the ocean to within ±0.003°C … yeah, that’s totally legit.”

“This means that IF we can measure the ocean temperature with an uncertainty of ±0.003°C with 4,000 Argo floats, we could measure it to one decimal less uncertainty, ±0.03°C, with a hundredth of that number, forty floats.
Does anyone think that’s possible? Just forty Argo floats, that’s about one for each area the size of the United States … measuring the ocean temperature of that area down 2,000 metres to within plus or minus three-hundredths of one degree C? Really?
Heck, even with 4,000 floats, that’s one for each area the size of Portugal and two kilometers deep. And call me crazy, but I’m not seeing one thermometer in Portugal telling us a whole lot about the temperature of the entire country … and this is much more complex than just measuring the surface temperature, because the temperature varies vertically in an unpredictable manner as you go down into the ocean.”

“Let me close by saying that with a warming of a bit more than a tenth of a degree Celsius over sixty years it will take about five centuries to warm the upper ocean by one degree C …
Now to be conservative, we could note that the warming seems to have sped up since 1985. But even using that higher recent rate of warming, it will still take three centuries to warm the ocean by one degree Celsius.”

Loydo
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
May 27, 2021 1:48 am

If you’re going to move the goalposts to “temperature” then narrow your focus to the mixed surace layer – that is what controls atmospheric temperature.

BruceC
Reply to  Loydo
May 24, 2021 7:30 am

Loydo’s scary graph = ~0.1C

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  BruceC
May 24, 2021 8:42 am

Exactly.
Over 60 years.
And to call it ocean heat content, itself seems almost like outright deception, when one takes into account the actual temperature average of all that water.
It might more descriptively be called “ocean coldness content”, if there was such a thing, for the very simply reason that, most of that water is frigidly cold.
The vast majority of the ocean volume is barely above freezing, and almost all of it is far below the average surface temperature.
So it is not like that “heat” could ever come pouring back out to warm the air, ever, at all.comment image

rugfb.png
Mr.
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
May 24, 2021 9:19 am

Selection of words is the essence of effective propaganda.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Mr.
May 24, 2021 2:45 pm

This is why the Left must always control the vocabulary and the dialogue.

Petit_Barde
May 24, 2021 12:21 am

one should not lose sight of the big picture” :

  • we are scamed since decades by a bunch of climate fraudsters.
griff
May 24, 2021 12:32 am

Every time there’s another UK flood, heatwave, storm I’m told this is just weather… so this spring is ‘just weather’, right?

and not as some people seem to think the start of an ice age…

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  griff
May 24, 2021 4:28 am

Hi Griff. Certainly is just weather ATM. Give it 30 years and it becomes climate, though.

Mr.
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
May 24, 2021 9:24 am

Why 30 years?

Is that just another “milestone” reference number that some WMO wallah pulled out of his arse?

Like the “2C tipping point” that some IPCC wallah pulled out of his nether region?

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Mr.
May 24, 2021 2:48 pm

That was a good catch. That “30 year” climate concept was indeed the result of a deep AGW anal search. It was a very convenient number.

philincalifornia
Reply to  Rory Forbes
May 24, 2021 7:48 pm

That’s why it’s so convenient for a climate priest to have his head up his arse. A quiet place for the voices in said head to reach a robust scientific consensus.

Last edited 3 months ago by philincalifornia
Rory Forbes
Reply to  philincalifornia
May 24, 2021 9:24 pm

His own private echo chamber …. where he can reflect on ‘fundament‘al principles and do deepanal‘ysis with ‘prob‘able expectation bias.

Graemethecat
Reply to  Rory Forbes
May 25, 2021 12:50 am

Thirty years is such a convenient number – long enough for the proponents of AGW to collect their salaries and pensions, not long enough to catch the following cooling era.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Graemethecat
May 25, 2021 10:56 am

It came as a shock after a lifetime of being told that ~60 years was the shortest period in which there was a meaningful climate signal. But 30 years really does work for the warmunists.

Jim Whelan
Reply to  Rory Forbes
May 25, 2021 1:36 pm

“after a lifetime of being told that ~60 years was the shortest period”

Exactly, the “SHORTEST”. In fact one, two and more centuries are required to even begin to have an idea of long term cycles.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Jim Whelan
May 25, 2021 2:49 pm

There are regions in the Atacama desert where conditions have persisted since the Triassic (200 million years ago). Numerous locations around the world experience centuries or even millennia long climate periods. 30 years??? Give me a break!

Reply to  griff
May 24, 2021 8:22 am

It’s not the start of an ice age?

Last edited 3 months ago by Hatter Eggburn
Rory Forbes
Reply to  Hatter Eggburn
May 24, 2021 2:50 pm

We’ve never left the ice age we’re in. Already our present interglacial has been cooling for over 8000 years since the Holocene Thermal Optimum and it’s already long in the tooth.

philincalifornia
Reply to  Hatter Eggburn
May 24, 2021 7:53 pm

Stop that, he’ll take his crystal ball home.

Richard Page
Reply to  griff
May 24, 2021 8:47 am

Oh Griff – I do so enjoy your posts. Very engaging and amusing on ever so many levels.
This time you are quite correct and on the ball – such a wonderful change of direction for you! This May does not, indeed, mark the beginning of an Ice Age – arguably the very beginning of the next Ice Age began the moment the temperature started to drop after the Holocene Climatic Optimum.
Have a gold star you clever, clever boy!

Graemethecat
Reply to  griff
May 24, 2021 9:04 am

Who said it was the beginning of an Ice Age? Certainly no one on WUWT (apart from trolls like you and Loydo who falsely attribute it to other posters).

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Graemethecat
May 24, 2021 12:29 pm

“Who said it was the beginning of an Ice Age?”

That was my question, too.

Griff seems to be indulging in a little exaggeration.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  griff
May 24, 2021 2:55 pm

and not as some people seem to think the start of an ice age…

No new ice age needs to start … it’s still with us. Our present interglacial has been cooling for over 8000 years since the Holocene Thermal Optimum. The present warming is a tiny blip. The only real issue is how much longer this interglacial can last. It’s already well past its prime. If only CO2 was able to do what you idiots believe it can.

Right-Handed Shark
May 24, 2021 1:01 am

Ah yes. The “science” tells us that the CO2 induced hottening causes the encolderization. As I sit here in the south of England, in the second half of May, shivering as I put a sweater on in the evenings, indoors.. I draw comfort from the knowledge that I would be warmer if it weren’t so damned hot, and once we get rid of the demon gas I WILL get warmer as it cools. Science!

LdB
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
May 24, 2021 8:31 pm

Yep climate scientists missed reading Orwell

“In times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.”

and

“If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.”

or

“What is needed is the right to print what one believes to be true, without having to fear bullying or blackmail from any side.”

Last edited 3 months ago by LdB
M Courtney
May 24, 2021 2:14 am

The point being that, no mate how bad AGW is, it’s nothing compared to the weather.

3° in 100 years is double what the trend shows – very much the worst case.
Yet the weather can vary by 30° year to year on any calendar day in any place.

Weather needs to be adapted to. We cannot control it through trace gas emissions. And if we can adapt to a 10x greater variability at 100x the rate then AGW is irrelevant.

We won’t even notice the end of the world.
We’ll just deal with it through infrastructure upgrades that are needed anyway.

May 24, 2021 2:42 am

If people who predict imminent cooling are right, we can all look forward to more backflips and hilarious efforts to reassure the climate faithful in years to come.

It will be effortless and brilliant.
The human intellect evolved to deceive, manipulate and control. Not to educate and enrich. This is what we do. Prepare for a “cooling means warming” masterclass.

fretslider
May 24, 2021 2:52 am

Keep the faith? The faith that now says the ground beneath my house will shrink and subside because of climate change?

It’s been raining for days and the ground is, er, waterlogged. Saturated.

We still have the [gas] heating on at night – might as well enjoy it while we can, eh – it’s that globally warm here. The Met Office hasn’t had much to say, but the Conversion, sorry, the Conversation ran a piece the other day… yes it’s been cold and wet but it’s really just a blip in a warming world:

“The best models we have can only predict the weather accurately up to two weeks in advance. The further ahead we go, the more unreliable these forecasts get, and the more uncertain these predictions become.

the forecast warm weather is part of a large trend of warmer summers and more droughts thanks to climate change.

So since the world is warming, on average most forecasts will predict normal to warm summers. If you need to make an educated guess, this would be the best choice.”

https://theconversation.com/europe-has-had-a-cold-and-wet-spring-but-will-it-last-through-summer-161299

Pimms on standby. But I’m not holding my breath.

Last edited 3 months ago by fretslider
Richard Page
Reply to  fretslider
May 24, 2021 9:53 am

Fretslider- you might be slightly out of date as regards the latest climate change communique’s – we may have to swap our Pimms for single malt Scotch instead. It’sh worsh than we thought, hic!

Tom in Toronto
May 24, 2021 3:29 am

“climate reanalysis scientist”

… no further comment needed.

Gary Ashe
Reply to  Tom in Toronto
May 24, 2021 5:29 am

xactly expect the reanalysis to cool the past and warm the future.
You dont need to be nostradamus kin to predict that.

Peta of Newark
May 24, 2021 4:33 am

Here’s a bit of brain-ache for y’all
A little table of 9 numbers which are the ‘output’ from my subterranean Lascar EL2 datalogger, here beside Sherwood Forest and about 18″ below the lawn of my very rural garden.
Basically recording the temperature of: The Surface Of The Earth

It doesn’t especially ‘do’ very much does it and thus the brain-ache is:
How do those recorded temperatures relate to either or both of the Green House Gas Effect and the observed, much talked about, temperatures of late?

Maybe move my garden 500 miles South to Central France, where surely Shirley the dirt would have been warmer, but where the wine-growers were using smudge pots to fend off Jack Frost recently.

How much faith can be put in the blizzard of well intentioned and carefully curated graphics we are endlessly, visually, assaulted by?
What are they all actually recording?

Newark Soil Temps - Copy.JPG
Peta of Newark
Reply to  Peta of Newark
May 24, 2021 4:45 am

PS to add the graph of the daily average for Mar 21
(Daily graphs are more boring than really boring things – monthlies not much brighter)

Mar 21 Daily Soil Temp.JPG
fretslider
Reply to  Peta of Newark
May 24, 2021 4:58 am

a bit of brain-ache for y’all

Use blue etc instead of yellow.

Michael in Dublin
May 24, 2021 4:47 am

Over fifty years ago an Irish friend introduced me to the songs of Flanders and Swan.

Their “A Song of the Weather” is particularly appropriate.

Both: January brings the snow,
Makes your feet and fingers glow.

February’s ice and sleet,
Freeze the toes right off your feet.

Welcome, March, with wint’ry wind,
Would thou weren’t not so unkind.

April brings the sweet spring showers,
On and on for hours and hours.

Farmers fear unkindly May,
Frost by night and hail by day.

June just rains and never stops,
Thirty days and spoils the crops.

In July the sun is hot,
Flanders: Is it shining?
Swann: No it’s not!

Both: August, cold and dank and wet,
Brings more rain than any yet.

Bleak September’s mist and mud,
Is enough to chill the blood.

Then October adds a gale,
Wind and slush and rain and hail.

Dark November brings the fog,
Should not do it to a dog.

Freezing wet December, then…
Both: b***** January again!

Both: (January brings the snow),
(Makes your feet and fingers glow!)

Ed Zuiderwijk
May 24, 2021 4:51 am

We had a week in April when we could sit outside with a beer, here in Liverpool. The temperature was just over 20C, in the low 70s. It was pimped as an early ‘heat wave.’ Before that 10 day spell it has been miserable wet and cold or just cold since at least last October. After I finished my pint the temperature dropped again and remained several degrees below normal ever since. Next week another ‘heat wave’ is supposed to begin with temperatures reaching 70.

Sunday funny: the BBC runs a program Countryfile. Last week in the same program they talked about the persistent cold, sandwiched in between items where invariably the impending climate doom caused by global warming made an appearance. The cognitive dissonance was just hilarious.

Kent Clizbe
May 24, 2021 4:59 am

“…climate reanalysis scientist…”

What?

Is this PC-speak for “data adjustment specialist?”

Richard Page
Reply to  Kent Clizbe
May 24, 2021 9:12 am

Temperature torturer?
Truth adjuster?
Data entry clerk from the adjustment bureau?
Data correction specialist?

philincalifornia
Reply to  Kent Clizbe
May 24, 2021 7:11 pm

Purveyor of scientific fraud ??

LdB
Reply to  Kent Clizbe
May 24, 2021 8:40 pm

AKA Spin Doctor

ResourceGuy
May 24, 2021 6:02 am
Richard Page
Reply to  ResourceGuy
May 24, 2021 9:15 am

The Czech Republic brought the case against Poland. As (I believe) both countries export lignite to Germany, it might be a power struggle over maximising profits.

LdB
Reply to  ResourceGuy
May 24, 2021 8:44 pm

This is just the tip of the iceberg as the EU tries to meet it’s emission goals. You will see EU countries start real arguments as the economic pain of emission control laws gets forced on them.

dk_
May 24, 2021 6:09 am

April 2021 was not the first ….

…since 2003 that was colder

…April 2017

And by my personal recollection 1987, 1992or3, possibly a few others. I’m for bringing back the discredited idea that there are near random cycles and/or emergent behavior in a complex system that no one can predict.

“Climate is what we expect, weather is what we receive.” -RAH

Stuart
May 24, 2021 6:38 am

The German cows cannot go to the Alps on time. Too cold. Too snowy.
https://www.dw.com/en/german-cows-must-delay-annual-trip-to-the-alps/a-57634712

Reply to  Stuart
May 24, 2021 8:19 am

There should be a “Far Side” cartoon about that and global warming.

Kent Clizbe
May 24, 2021 6:42 am

China hit by effects of excess CO2: 21 runners dead

BEIJING—Twenty-one people running a mountain ultramarathon died in northwestern China after hail, freezing rain and gale-force winds hit the high-altitude race, state-run media reported Sunday.
After an all-night rescue operation in freezing temperatures involving more than 700 personnel, rescuers were able to confirm that 151 people were safe, out of a total of 172 participants. Twenty-one had died, according to the state-run Xinhua News Agency, which said the runners suffered from physical discomfort and the a sudden drop in temperature.

Wall St Journal story:
https://archive.fo/uOGM6#selection-4051.0-4055.351

Olen
May 24, 2021 7:28 am

It is bad news when you are trying to sell windmills and solar farms. Politicians are counting on the faithful.

Michael E McHenry
May 24, 2021 8:05 am

I never see error bars on these so called global temperature changes. The numbers are very small. I venture if error bars were shown the graph would be farcical.

Richard Page
Reply to  Michael E McHenry
May 24, 2021 9:23 am

They most certainly would. Those ‘temperature’ graphs are simply mathematical averages and, as such, the multiplication of error ranges in the data would cause the error bars to shoot off the top and bottom of the graph, far exceeding the ‘temperature’ recorded!

We could probably do with yet another post showing how error ranges SHOULD be recorded and how error ranges multiply and increase when you add them together to derive a statistical average.

navy bob
May 24, 2021 8:34 am

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!

ResourceGuy
May 24, 2021 10:39 am

Welcome to the combo world of solar minimum and AMO turn down. The end of solar minimum effects on NH temps and jet stream will be more than matched by further decline in the AMO. Better crank up the energy and power imports from Russia and eastern Europe, if they can spare it.

ren
May 24, 2021 10:41 am

May temperatures in Europe are also below normal and June promises to be wet.

Sara
May 24, 2021 10:50 am

What are you people bickering about now????? Last night, the temp started to drop and drop and drop and I wondered how far it would drop from 82F daytime to something completely different. I had all the windows open, just in case it did chill out.

Well, boys and girls, the outdoor temperature began to drop very suddenly as a cold front moved into my AO and I enjoyed it, as did my cat. By sleepy time, it had dropped indoors from 82F outdoors to 67F, about 4 hours, and I left the windows open to bring in that fresh, cool air. No need to run the A/C at all. By 5AM this morning, it was down to 62F. Comfy. I must be turning into a pelted wolf or bear if I like cold weather better than warm.

Has it stayed there? Nah! The Sun is doing a hot dance on the skies above, and it’s back up, BUT — and I use that word lightly — this sudden temperature drop, being WEATHER, is NOT a sign of climate change. It is WEATHER. What it is likely to do is push back mosquito season, which is fine with me.

The NWS forecast is for more of the same for the rest of the week – 60s overnight, low 80s daytime and then OOOPSSS!! 60s daytime and 50s nighttime for a week!!! We need rain more than anything else. My lawn is looking sad.

For those whose concept of “climate change” is connected to daily weather, try to understand that the short term is ONLY weather and nothing else. Tornadoes matter less than humidity. I do remember the midwest tornado outbreak in 1974. That was a swarm and it was caused by the collision of three different WEATHER patterns. Look it up.

Come Autumn, I’m guessing that the WEATHER in my AO will be warm and then abruptly cool off and we’ll get early snow. By early, I mean the end of September. Doesn’t have to lasts any longer than it takes me to get outside with a camera.

It is WEATHER and WEATHER has quirks and silly episodes and absolutely ZERO consistency from one season to the next, and ZERO consistency from one year to the next.

IF we ever get snow in August (anything’s possible), it is still WEATHER — UNLESS the temps do not rise back to “normal” and it snows and keeps on snowing. And that has to happen several years – nay, DECADES in a row.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

Tomsa
Reply to  Sara
May 24, 2021 11:57 am

Sara people are bickering a bit here. It’s our long Victoria Day weekend and it’s been wet and cold compared to last Monday to Wednesday when I went camping it was dry and 28-30C highs. We’ve also had a drought until the end of last week, smoke in the air from forest fires, and people complaining about climate change. As you say it’s just WEATHER. Now this week the high Wed is calling for 11C. Now if you take the 30 last Monday and average it with the 11 then that’s 20.5, the normal for here now is 21.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Tomsa
May 24, 2021 1:38 pm

You must be out west with me, was beautiful last weekend
Then couple nights below freezing now wet and cold

If it follows last year, we won’t now get any real hot weather until mid to late July.

I hope it’s different this year, am not a fan of cold and wet, or as Griff/Loydo term it, ideal weather

Tomsa
Reply to  Pat from kerbob
May 24, 2021 3:16 pm

Yes Pat out west in MB right on the border with US

Sara
Reply to  Tomsa
May 24, 2021 6:26 pm

Well, we are having a rather ragged entry into Summer up here in the upper Midwest of the USA. Look at the USA map and when you find Chicago, I’m north of there by the WI-IL state line. It is cooler up there than it is here in my AO, and Chicago is having rather rough heat, but the humidity is worse: far too high.

What WE need is rain. My lawn is telling me to either get out the sprinkler or do the rain dance before sunrise and sacrifice an English muffin with lots of butter and strawberry jam to the cause.

The lack of rain is disturbing because this is the time of year when rain is expected. So far: no go. But the house is nice and cool….

ResourceGuy
May 24, 2021 10:51 am

I’m sure those old, early adopter solar panels will work just fine. They’re not as good as the new slave-labor models but then Uncle Joe says you can have gas pipelines that we can’t seem to finish or even keep operating.

ren
May 24, 2021 10:54 am

The global sea surface temperature is falling again. This predicts another La Niña wave in the summer of 2021.comment image

Reply to  ren
May 24, 2021 12:35 pm

That will depend on the sun, and where the sunspots position themselves over the course of this year, imo.

ren
Reply to  goldminor
May 24, 2021 10:34 pm

An active sunspot has appeared.comment image

Bruce Cobb
May 24, 2021 12:04 pm

What should you say to family members doubting climate change because they see snow around them?

Oh, I dunno; What should you say to simpletons who use straw man arguments to push their Alarmist ideology?

Jim Whelan
May 24, 2021 12:55 pm

There’s this problem with science: It only takes ONE contrary observation to reject a theory but many supporting observations to “confirm” it (and confirmation is never certain). In other words, given a theory of warming, record cold weather can indeed reject it, but record warm weather doesn’t.

Pat from kerbob
May 24, 2021 1:03 pm

As noted before, in calgary 20 years ago I could start eating ripe tomatos in early august

Now I’m lucky to get some in September, if everything hasn’t froze.
It’s almost June and my peonies and hostas are barely out of the ground while some years past they would be in full bloom

Personally I would like some warming as it is long overdue around here.

“I want some more, please”

Or maybe just some?

Xnightx
Reply to  Pat from kerbob
May 25, 2021 6:00 pm

“In Calgary 20 years ago I could start eating ripe tomatos in early august
Now I’m lucky to get some in September, if everything hasn’t froze.”
I live in eastern France and for more than a decade the harvest of tomatoes is poor while before it was plentiful.
The change of temperature is impressive, springs and falls have become chilly and long, summers very short, it lasts only 2 months and we may even get cold snaps at the end of August.
When I was a child in the early 70s I remember my father harvesting the first potatoes on June 10, yesterday, May 25, their leaves haven’t emerged out of the ground ! Where are we heading ? I’m worried !

ResourceGuy
May 24, 2021 2:49 pm

Maybe they can burn fuel oil for power like Mexico.

Mexico to buy Shell share of Texas refinery for $600 million (yahoo.com)

Tom
May 24, 2021 3:49 pm

You know, I would like this thing to resolve itself one way or the other before my time is up. I would hate to go not knowing.

Jørgen F.
May 25, 2021 4:13 am

Repeat after me – It’s getting warmer – the Democrats didn’t steal the election – the Chinese didn’t develope Covid-19.

See - Owe to Rich
May 25, 2021 11:37 am

Never mind the cool April weather – May is being much colder relative to average in England, nearly 3 degC below 1990-2019 average. And a comment by a pundit for the Giro D’Italia said “ooh I haven’t seen snow in this area before on the Giro”.

I’d like a pleasant summer, but on the other hand further global cooling wouldn’t half stick it to COP26 in the UK! As if they’d even notice…

Mark E Shulgasser
May 25, 2021 9:01 pm

Ha! More frequent but ‘less likely’. Can’t argue with probabilities!

May 30, 2021 2:21 am

There was no global warming from 1998 to 2014/15, there is again no global warming since 2016, and the global temperature in April 2021 was even below the 1991-2020 average. This indicates a clear fail of all mainstream climate models.

https://galileoverschworung.wordpress.com/2021/05/22/klimawandel-macht-pause-keine-erwarmung-seit-2016/

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