More Crowd Sourcing Please

We would like to continue to take advantage of the brain trust in our audience to refine and harden the articles on the Everything Climate , one article at a time.

Please continue to contribute input to improve and tighten up both the Pro and Con sections, etc.)

We will start with one article at at time and if this works well, it will become a regular feature.

So here’s the Next one. Please give us your input. If you wish to email marked up word or PDF documents, use the information on this page to submit.

Pro: Climate Models Have Been Demonstrated to be Accurate.

From NASA

By Alan Buis,
NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory

An animation of a GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) climate model simulation made for the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, showing five-year averaged surface air temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius from 1880 to 2100. The temperature anomaly is a measure of how much warmer or colder it is at a particular place and time than the long-term mean temperature, defined as the average temperature over the 30-year base period from 1951 to 1980. Blue areas represent cool areas and yellow and red areas represent warmer areas. The number in the upper right corner represents the global mean anomaly.

Credit: NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies

There’s an old saying that “the proof is in the pudding,” meaning that you can only truly gauge the quality of something once it’s been put to a test. Such is the case with climate models: mathematical computer simulations of the various factors that interact to affect Earth’s climate, such as our atmosphere, ocean, ice, land surface and the Sun.

For decades, people have legitimately wondered how well climate models perform in predicting future climate conditions. Based on solid physics and the best understanding of the Earth system available, they skillfully reproduce observed data. Nevertheless, they have a wide response to increasing carbon dioxide levels, and many uncertainties remain in the details. The hallmark of good science, however, is the ability to make testable predictions, and climate models have been making predictions since the 1970s. How reliable have they been?

Now a new evaluation of global climate models used to project Earth’s future global average surface temperatures over the past half-century answers that question: most of the models have been quite accurate.

In a study accepted for publication in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, a research team led by Zeke Hausfather of the University of California, Berkeley, conducted a systematic evaluation of the performance of past climate models. The team compared 17 increasingly sophisticated model projections of global average temperature developed between 1970 and 2007, including some originally developed by NASA, with actual changes in global temperature observed through the end of 2017. The observational temperature data came from multiple sources, including NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) time series, an estimate of global surface temperature change.

The results: 10 of the model projections closely matched observations. Moreover, after accounting for differences between modeled and actual changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and other factors that drive climate, the number increased to 14. The authors found no evidence that the climate models evaluated either systematically overestimated or underestimated warming over the period of their projections.

“The results of this study of past climate models bolster scientists’ confidence that both they as well as today’s more advanced climate models are skillfully projecting global warming,” said study co-author Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies in New York. “This research could help resolve public confusion around the performance of past climate modeling efforts.”

Models that were used in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report can be evaluated by comparing their approximately 20-year predictions with what actually happened. In this figure, the multi-model ensemble and the average of all the models are plotted alongside the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature Index (GISTEMP). Climate drivers were known for the ‘hindcast’ period (before 2000) and forecast for the period beyond. The temperatures are plotted with respect to a 1980-1999 baseline. Credit: Gavin Schmidt

Con: Global Ocean Temperatures are Warming at Only ~50% the Rate of Climate Model Projections

Dr. Roy Spencer, a climate scientist from the University of Alabama, Hunstville examined the claims of accuracy of climate models by comparing them to actual measured temperatures.

From Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog

The plot below (Fig. 1) shows the monthly global (60N-60S) average ocean surface temperature variations since 1979 for 68 model simulations from 13 different climate models. The 42 years of observations we now have since 1979 (bold black line) shows that warming is occurring much more slowly than the average climate model says it should have.

Fig. 1. 68 CMIP6 climate model simulations of global average sea surface temperature (relative to the 5 year average, 1979-1983), and compared to observations from the ERSSTv5 dataset.

In terms of the linear temperature trends since 1979, Fig. 2 shows that 2 of the top-cited ocean temperature datasets have warming trends near the bottom of the range of climate model simulations.

Fig. 2. Linear temperature trends, 1979-2020, for the various model and observational datasets in Fig. 1, plus the HadSST3 observational record.

Deep Ocean Warming Could Be Mostly Natural

A related issue is how much the deep oceans are warming. As I have mentioned before, the (inarguable) energy imbalance associated with deep-ocean warming in recent decades is only about 1 part (less than 1 Watt per sq. m) in 300 of the natural energy flows in the climate system.

This is a very tiny energy imbalance in the climate system. We know NONE of the natural energy flows to that level of accuracy.

What that means is that global warming could be mostly natural, and we would not even know it.

I’m not claiming that is the case. I am merely pointing out the level of faith that is involved in the adjustments made to climate models, which necessarily produce warming due to increasing CO2 because those models simply assume that there is no other source of warming.

Yes, more CO2 must produce some warming. But the amount of warming makes all the difference to global energy policies.

Seldom is the public ever informed of these glaring discrepancies between basic science and what politicians and pop-scientists tell us.

Why does it matter?

It matters because there is no Climate Crisis. There is no Climate Emergency.

Yes, irregular warming is occurring. Yes, it is at least partly due to human greenhouse gas emissions. But seldom are the benefits of a somewhat warmer climate system mentioned, or the benefits of more CO2 in the atmosphere (which is required for life on Earth to exist).

But if we waste trillions of dollars (that’s just here in the U.S. — meanwhile, China will always do what is in the best interests of China) then that is trillions of dollars not available for the real necessities of life.

Prosperity will suffer, and for no good reason.

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Tom Halla
May 5, 2021 6:11 pm

I would tend to rate Dr Spencer much more highly than GISS, as GISS has credibly been accused of the cooking the records to fit their models, cooling the past to better fit CO2 levels as a driver of temperature.

Reply to  Tom Halla
May 5, 2021 7:07 pm

GISS is not involved in Roy’s analysis. It is CMIP6 models compared with ERSST.

Last edited 6 months ago by Nick Stokes
Greg
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 7, 2021 2:26 pm

Strange that there are 18 -ve votes on this comment without a single one of those persons posting a logical or factual criticism of Nick’s comment.

Boo, Nick Stokes, boo ! Why bother with facts.

Now let me guess. Are any of the 63 runs from 13 models anything to do with GISS?

For example: ‘CMIP6.CMIP.NASA-GISS.GISS-E2-1-G.1pctCO2’ ???

Last edited 6 months ago by Greg
Dave Fair
Reply to  Greg
May 9, 2021 6:47 pm

You miss the point. The GISS/model comparison is fabricated and Dr. Spencer’s analysis is based on established relationships. Nick’s comment depreciated/discounted Dr. Spencer’s analysis. To that is what the commenters were responding.

Robert of Texas
May 5, 2021 6:16 pm

They are saying there has been…1.7 degrees F (not C) of warming since 1970??? Am I reading this correctly? Why is the graph not labeled as “Figure 1”?

Last edited 6 months ago by Robert of Texas
Gino
May 5, 2021 6:20 pm

Since both pro and con are comparing models to data products, not raw measurements, any critique performed needs to address the adequacy/accuracy of the data product to ensure it is an appropriate reflection of the reality the models are supposed to forecast.

Rud Istvan
May 5, 2021 6:25 pm

Charles, three possible comments, all in my ebooks, which you now have permission to lift images from and then reproduce, with attribution, here.

  1. The absolute model temps are in violent disagreement, hidden by anomalies. Judith Curry chart origination.
  2. The model ECS is in such sharp disagreement with observational methods (Energy budget) that there is no consensus in AR5. ~3.2 versus ~1.7.
  3. Greening is real, the food crop emergency is contrived. See my first post here 2011.

Your to do to rewrite the thing with these potential adds.
Highest regards.

Greg
Reply to  Rud Istvan
May 7, 2021 2:33 pm

The only food crop emergency is the one due to taking food from the mouths of starving populations to burn it road vehicles in developed countries in order bourgeois socialists to pretend that this is somehow “saving the planet”.

Despite ethanol rotting the rubber hoses, rubber seals and diaphragms on my motorcycles, I can not even buy a true octane product in Europe now, that has not been polluted with ethanol made from someone else’s lunch.

Last edited 6 months ago by Greg
Lance Wallace
May 5, 2021 6:29 pm

I make it out to be about 1.8 F or exactly 1 C increase in 50 years. That’s 0.2 C per decade, about what the RSS satellites are predicting, and about 50% higher than the 0.14 C per decade that UAH is showing. Assume 70 years for doubling and that gives you 1.4 C per doubling–NOT the 3 C from the model mean.

Patrick Harcourt
Reply to  Lance Wallace
May 6, 2021 10:13 am

UAH shows +0.18C/decade over land and +0.14C/decade over sea since their satellite measurements started in 1979. These are lower than RSS but Roy Spencer argues that UAH has good agreement with radiosones. RSS revised their measurements upwards a couple of years ago

Patrick Harcourt
Reply to  Patrick Harcourt
May 6, 2021 10:17 am

Sorry, my error. UAH has +0.12C/decade over the oceans which gives an average for land and sea of +0.14C/decade

EdB
Reply to  Patrick Harcourt
May 6, 2021 3:13 pm

0.14C per decade matches the 1910 to 1940 warming rate.

1860 – 1880 0.16 C a 20 year rate per decade
1910 – 1940 0.15 C a 30 year rate, includes the dirty ’30’s
1975 – 1998 0.16 C a 20 year rate.

Trends source: Interview by the BBC with Phil Jones of the Hadley Center for Climate Change at East Anglia University

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8511670.stm

Ian W
Reply to  EdB
May 11, 2021 6:07 am

How do you get a precision of 0.01C when there were only about 100 thermometers in the Southern Hemisphere until after the 2nd World War 1945?
You trust HADCRUT Phil Jones after climate gate in a BBC interview of all things? The magic tree Briffra used was in Yamal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamal_Peninsula

Robert Lande
May 5, 2021 6:47 pm

How would NASA’s analysis turn out using satellite temperature data?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Robert Lande
May 6, 2021 3:58 am

How well do the hindcasting computer models match the temperature profile of the world’s regional surface temperature charts? Answer: Not at all.

The fact is the computer models don’t reproduce the temperature profile of regional temperature charts, all they reproduce is the bastardized temperature record profile of the fraudulent, instrument-era Hockey Stick charts. You can tell if it’s a fraudulent temperature chart if the chart does not show the Early Twentieth Century as being as warm as it is today. All regional charts show it was just as warm in the recent past as it is today, which means we are not experiencing unprecedented warmth today, as the alarmists claim.

So claiming the computer models perfectly hindcast the fraudulent Hockey Stick temperature profile is evidence that the computer models are junk science, because the Hockey Stick temperature profile is fraudulent science that does not represent reality, so the computer models don’t represent reality, either.

The “hotter and hotter” temperature profile of the fraudulent Hockey Stick chart does not resemble any unmodified, regional surface temperature chart from anywhere in the world. The Hockey Stick chart is all alone. It’s the only thing the alarmists can point to that shows any warming, and it’s all fraudulent, and it’s all deliberate fraud created in a computer.

These alarmists can read a regional surface temperature chart as well as anyone, yet they ignore them and act like they don’t exist and they do so in order to sell the lie that CO2 is overheating the Earth’s atmosphere. They could’t make that claim looking at a regional surface temperature chart. That’s why they don’t look, and they don’t want you to look, either. They want you to stay mesmerized by the lie of the Hockey Stick temperature profile.

CAGW is a lie, and these people know it’s a lie, and yet they keep on lying.

Meanwhile, CO2 is UP, and Temperatures are Down. Let’s see them lie their way out of that.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Abbott
May 6, 2021 4:16 am

Here’s a bogus, fraudulent Hockey Stick chart:

comment image

As you can see, it makes it appear that temperatures have been steadily climbing for decades, and that the temperatures are now the warmest in human history.

This is the Huge Lie that is being used to sell the Human-caused Climate Change scam.

As you can see, the hot part of the middle of the 20th century has been cooled to insignificance using alarmist computer tricks and shows to be much cooler than the current day, yet any regional surface temperature chart will show that this temperature profile does not repesent reality.

NASA’s James Hansen said that in the U.S., 1934 was the hottest year and was 0.5C warmer than 1998, which makes it 0.4C warmer than 2016. But you couldn’t tell any of that from looking at the bogus Hockey Stick chart.

Here’s Hansen’s U.S. chart circa 1999:

comment image

This U.S. temperature profile certainly does not resemble the fraudulent Hockey Stick profile. It shows the Early Twentieth Century was just as warm as it is today. All the other regional surface temperature charts have a temperature profile very similar to the U.S. chart. NONE of them look like the “hotter and hotter” Hockey Stick chats.

The Hockey Stick charts are computer-generated lies meant to sell the Human-caused Climate Change scam. It’s their only selling point and it’s all made up in a computer.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Abbott
May 6, 2021 4:45 am

Here’s a couple of regional surface temperature charts from different parts of the world, that show it was just as warm in the Early Twentieth Century as it is today.

I’ll limit myself to two charts as I believe posting more than that in one post causes the moderator to have to look at it, and we want to save them some unnecessary work, 🙂

Australia’s regional chart:

comment image

China’s regional chart:

comment image

They both show that it was just as warm in the Early Twentieth Century as it is today. They look nothing like the bogus, bastardized Hockey Stick charts.

The alarmists have created a scary false reality in which many of the people of the world are living.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Tom Abbott
May 6, 2021 4:58 pm

By combining land and ocean data, GISS makes it impossible to compare any one time period to another in order to obtain scientifically usable information. Ocean temperature evolution (at any particular depth) does in no way resemble that of any atmospheric layer.

Both at sea and on land, temperature measurement instrumentation type, accuracy, location and coverage have changed significantly over time. Added to sea/land temperature incompatibilities, those changes ensure that the GISS land/sea combined chart is meaningless.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
May 6, 2021 7:13 am

Good posts Tom Abbott, thank you.
 
CAGW has always been a lie, a fraud. I first published that CAGW was a false crisis in 2002, but I knew that in 1985, based on paleoclimatology. For a while, we thought the warmists were just technically mistaken, but their thuggish Leninist tactics exposed in the Climategate emails and their vile cancel culture soon made it obvious that they were deliberately lying.
 
The warmists have been lying since the beginning, circa 1970. To end 2020 they have made 48 scary climate failed predictions that have fully expired – the odds against that are 1 in ~283 trillion – no rational person or group could be this wrong, this obtuse, for this long – they know they are lying – they’ve known all along.
 
Thoughts from 2015:
 
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/23/weekly-climate-and-energy-news-roundup-206/#comment-1651447
 
This is worth reading:
 
Richard Lindzen, Will Happer and Patrick Moore:
 
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/prominent_scientists_declare_climate_claims_ahead_of_un_summit_irrational_b/
 
MIT Climate Scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen: ‘Demonization of CO2 is irrational at best and even modest warming is mostly beneficial.’ – ‘When someone says this is the warmest temperature on record. What are they talking about? It’s just nonsense. This is a very tiny change period.’
 
Princeton Physicist Dr. Will Happer: ‘Policies to slow CO2 emissions are really based on nonsense. We are being led down a false path. To call carbon dioxide a pollutant is really Orwellian. You are calling something a pollutant that we all produce. Where does that lead us eventually?’
 
Greenpeace Co-Founder Dr. Patrick Moore: ‘We are dealing with pure political propaganda that has nothing to do with science.’

Last edited 6 months ago by ALLAN MACRAE
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
May 6, 2021 7:53 am

Thoughts from 2013:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/10/the-sun-does-it-now-go-figure-out-how/#comment-1121415
[excerpt]

The popular debate in climate science suggests that this science is in its infancy. I further suggest that the majority of climate science has taken a giant step backwards in recent decades due to egregious political interference and scientific misbehaviour.

Notwithstanding all the wonderful data available especially since ~1979, we have an “ECS mainstream debate” that ASSUMES THAT CO2 SIGNIFICANTLY DRIVES TEMPERATURE and centres on the question of “climate sensitivity to atmospheric CO2” (“ECS”) that questions whether ECS is greater or less than 1 (that is, are there positive or negative feedbacks to increasing atmospheric CO2).

Since CO2 (changes) clearly LAGS temperature (changes) at all measured time scales, this ECS mainstream debate requires that, in total, “the future is causing the past”, which I suggest is demonstrably false.

To be clear, I suggest that atmospheric CO2 does NOT significantly drive Earth temperatures, and Earth temperatures clearly drive atmospheric CO2.

This does not preclude the possibility that the observed increase in atmospheric CO2 is primarily caused by some factors (natural and/or humanmade) other than temperatures, but such increase in CO2 is insignificant to Earths’ temperatures.

In summary, in climate science we do not even agree on what drives what, and it is probable that the majority, who reside on BOTH sides of the ECS mainstream debate, are BOTH WRONG.

It is also possible that I am wrong on this point ( possible, but not probable :-} ).

Regards to all, Allan

Last edited 6 months ago by ALLAN MACRAE
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
May 6, 2021 9:20 am

I don’t think that Climate Sensitivity (CS, ECS or TCS) even exists in practical reality. Atmospheric CO2 changes lag temperature changes at all measured time scales. (MacRae, 2008). Humlum et al (2013) confirmed this conclusion.

Kuo et al (1990) and Keeling (1995) made similar observations in the journal Nature, but have been studiously ignored.

Think about that: Kuo was correct in 1990, and for 31 years climate science has ignored that conclusion and has been going backwards!

Climate Sensitivity to CO2 is a fiction – so small, if it exists at all, it is practically irrelevant.

“The future cannot cause the past.” Here is the proof, from my 2008 paper:
https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/from:1979/mean:12/derivative/plot/uah6/from:1979/scale:0.18/offset:0.17

In the modern data record, the lag of atmospheric CO2 changes after atmospheric temperature changes is ~9 months. This is an absolute disproof of the CAGW hypothesis, which states that increasing CO2 drives temperature. “The future cannot cause the past.”

In my 2019 paper below I explained why the lag is ~9 months – it is basic calculus, the 90 degree (1/4 cycle) lag of the derivative and its integral, which is the ~3 year ENSO period.

My 2008 paper remains very important. My 2008 conclusion was duplicated and expanded by Humlum et al in 2013, for which I am grateful.

My 2008 paper has been cited by Ed Berry in his 2020 book and related paper, which is at the cutting edge of climate science.

“CLIMATE MIRACLE: THERE IS NO CLIMATE CRISIS – NATURE CONTROLS CLIMATE”
amazon.ca/Climate-Miracle-climate-crisis-controls-ebook/dp/B08LCD1YC3/

“CARBON CYCLE MODEL SHOWS NATURE CONTROLS CO2 LEVEL”
edberry.com/blog/climate/climate-physics/preprint3/

All warmists and most skeptics argue about the magnitude of climate sensitivity to increasing CO2, and whether the resulting CO2-driven global warming will be hot and dangerous or warm and beneficial. Both groups are probably wrong, because global cooling is happening now, even as CO2 concentration increases.

There is a high probability that the mainstream debate is wrong – a waste of decades of vital time, tens of trillions of dollars of green energy nonsense and millions of lives. Vital energy systems have been compromised, damaged with intermittent, unreliable wind and solar generation – a debacle.

Cheap abundant reliable energy is the lifeblood of humanity – it IS that simple. The green sabotage of our vital energy systems, whether innocent or deliberate, has cost lives and could cost very many more.

Scientific details here:
CO2, GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE AND ENERGY June 15, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/15/co2-global-warming-climate-and-energy-2/

Repeating, “The future cannot cause the past.”

Regards, Allan

Ian W
Reply to  Robert Lande
May 11, 2021 6:13 am

There’s not a lot of satellite data prior to 1960’s so that will not help in hiding the atmospheric temps of the 1930’s

Nick Schroeder
May 5, 2021 6:51 pm

All the models are fundamentally flawed.

Comments for the attached K-T diagram.

Upwelling 396 W/m^2 is 54 W/m^2 more than the gross 342 that arrived from the sun,

                       157 W/m^2 more than the net 239 after albedo,

                         236 W/m^2 more than the net 160 to the surface.

Rather egregious violations of 1st law conservation of energy.

The up/down/“back” 333 W/m^2 100% efficient loop leaves no energy behind

to warm the atmosphere and leaves no energy behind to warm the surface.

A 100% efficient perpetual energy loop violates thermodynamics.

The 333 W/m^2 (S-B 277 K, 4 C) downwelling from the cold troposphere, -40 (ALL directions S-B 167 W/m^2) to -60 C (ALL directions S-B 117 W/m^2), to the warm, 16 C, surface without the addition of work violates thermodynamics.

And as noted the -40/-60 troposphere cannot “back” emit at 333 W/m^2.

Not that it matters since the 396 W/m^2 is a theoretical ideal BB calculation with

ZERO physical reality and removing it from the diagram does not affect balance.

  

K-T Handout.jpg
DMacKenzie
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
May 6, 2021 7:06 am

Nick apparently feels that quantum mechanics as described by the Planck curve is fundamentally flawed and the “caloric” method should be used. However these were updated, circa 1980’s engineering undergrad curriculums, to explain to students how photons from cold microwave ovens and cold lasers could heat things up…..

Nick Schroeder
Reply to  DMacKenzie
May 6, 2021 10:26 am

Both of those devices plug into an electrical power outlet.
They are not powered out of thin air hocus pocus created by a “what if” S-B calculation.

mkelly
Reply to  DMacKenzie
May 6, 2021 1:34 pm

Photons from a microwave do not transfer heat. I can place a ceramic cup in a microwave turn on the it on and the cup will not heat. The air in a microwave barely gets warm.

Energy is transferred to molecules like water that rotate causing heat within an item. There were cold spots in older microwaves and that is why the plates rotate now for more even heating.

“The heat is produced by the microwaved object and not the appliance.”

RickWill
Reply to  DMacKenzie
May 6, 2021 8:49 pm

to explain to students how photons from cold microwave ovens and cold lasers could heat things up…..

Photons are so poorly understood that they should be omitted from any education curriculum. They are energy quanta. They only exist by virtue of the E-M field. Energy is unidirectional at any point in space and time.

Energy is emitted in all directions at the characteristic impedance of the media but once that object’s field equilibrates with all other objects in the field then the energy only goes from the high energy source to the lower energy sink. They are not like guns spraying bullets in every direction but more like pressure vessels with interconnecting hoses with fluid flowing one way from the highest pressure to the lowest pressure.

Viewing photons as being sprayed in all directions is the same as vieweing that there is fluid flowing in both directions in the pipe between two tanks but one flow is bigger than the other. That is what is being done when the difference terms in the S-B equation are separated.

RickWill
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
May 6, 2021 8:31 pm

ZERO physical reality and removing it from the diagram does not affect balance.

So true. The only part that matters from the energy balance is what occurs at the top of the atmosphere.

The “field” of climate science is filled with silly religious beliefs.

The so-called CO2 forcing is based on IR absorption in a US standard atmosphere.

Try to get MODTRAN to produce anything like the 180W/sq.m OLR from a tropical ocean surface at 303K.

Ice in the atmosphere plays the dominant role and reflection trumps absorption and re-emission by a good margin. When the ocean is its warmest that ice over the oceans results in net heat loss of 4.2W/sq.m/cm of water in the atmosphere. A very powerful cooling agent.

Charts_July.png
Meisha
May 5, 2021 6:52 pm

I don’t think these two articles are helpful to even a well-educated person, much less the average person, in helping them determine whether or not either approach is correct in its model evaluation. The main problem is that it is all but impossible, just from the articles, to know or figure out why they disagree so significantly.

To make these articles truly helpful, there needs to be a third part with the headline something like, “Why these two approaches to model evaluation are so different,” and then for the content, in layman’s language as much as possible to explain the primary reasons for their different assessments. Different actual temperature series? OK, what are they and why do they differ? If each temperature series were used with the other’s model results, what would happen? And/ or, do the two model sets/ means differ? If so, why and how?

Maybe there are other aspects of each analysis that are an important reason why different conclusions are drawn. If so, what are they and how do they affect each analysis?

Right now, all I get is the equivalent of an argument between two ten year olds: “Does too!” “Does not!”

Alastair gray
Reply to  Meisha
May 5, 2021 9:11 pm

I agree with meisha. no basis for preferring Hausfather over Spencer or viceversa. Apples and oranges too. Not helpful .what about including Christy work showing mid stratosphere comparison,and any direct contradictory evidence to that

Nick Schroeder
May 5, 2021 6:53 pm

Another example.

Percentage Balance.jpg
Nick Schroeder
May 5, 2021 6:56 pm

Try the annotated version.

Percentage Balance.jpg.png
Dave Fair
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
May 9, 2021 2:36 pm

The atmosphere is bounded by space at TOA and by the earth’s surface at the bottom. The Sun’s input is considered to be 100 at TOA.

Energy into the atmosphere as a % of Sun radiation at TOA:
Absorbed fraction of sun’s energy = 22.9
Absorbed fraction of earth’s energy = 104.4
Sensible heat = 5.0
Latent heat = 23.5

TOTAL ABSORBED 155.8

Energy out of the atmosphere as a % of Sun radiation at TOA:
Emitted by atmosphere at TOA = 49.6
Emitted by clouds = 8.8
Back Radiation to earth’s surface = 97.7

TOTAL EMITTED 156.1

ROUNDING ERRORS 0.3

The math seems to work out fine. This just shows that GHGs do result in energy retention by the atmospheric system. Nick, you seem to have left out the 42.7% Sun input to the surface in your “loop” analysis.

Editor
May 5, 2021 6:59 pm

I think it would be very helpful to show a summary of model forecast by date of forecast (the date on which the models were run). I appreciate that it’s a lot of work and I’m not volunteering for it(!). A major possible reason for discrepancy between the pro and con graphs is the different dates of forecast. It might be very informative to see the average model forecasts to say 2050 made in say 1979, 1984, 1989, etc against the measured temperatures. Averages only, to avoid clutter. I suspect that it would show decreasing slope in later forecasts, but maybe not?

Reply to  Mike Jonas
May 5, 2021 7:14 pm

the date on which the models were run”
All models in the CMIP series use a fixed date to switch from historic forcings to scenario. The last fig in the pro case marks this as 2000.

Allan Moluf
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 5, 2021 9:41 pm

Comparing the PRO and CON graphs is hard!

The PRO uses CMIP4 models to hindcast 1970-2000 and forecast to 2020, in deg. F, against GISS surface temps, with anomaly base 1980-1999 (20 years).

The CON uses CMIP6 models to hindcast 1979-2021 and forecast to 2030, in deg. C, against ERSSTv5 ocean surface temps, with anomaly base 1979-1983 (5 years).

I presume the PRO uses a common base for its simulations and GISS data, and similarly for the CON data, but perhaps this is wrong. Can we get the data on a common time base by just shifting by a constant temp difference or does the spatio-temporal variation between bases make this inaccurate?

Can we use Earth surface temps (perhaps both GISS and UAH data) consistently in either F or C? And display ERSSTv5 data as well, so we can see:
– how the CMIP4 and CMIP6 simulations compare to each other,
– how the observed temp products compare to each other, and
– how the simulations compare to the observations?

Dave Fair
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 5, 2021 10:18 pm

The study uses 17 models (out of how many?) developed between 1970 and 2007. It will be fun to see what the various estimated future CO2 concentrations are in the various models. Any bets on how similar or dissimilar they are to RCP8.5? Any bets as to how those concentrations compared to the ones used in the then-hyped model run outputs? Using different scenarios at different times for different audiences would be propaganda – no?

ATheoK
Reply to  Mike Jonas
May 5, 2021 7:29 pm

I think it would be very helpful to show a summary of model forecast by date of forecast (the date on which the models were run)”

Every run of the models during that period should be documented and presented.
The model owners and operators have a bad habit of running the model repeatedly. After which they select runs that they then “average”.

Lowell
May 5, 2021 7:02 pm

Decades ago I subscribed to a financial service that had a graph that predicted stock market changes,. Every month it was adjusted to accurately predict the past. Unfortunately it could never predict the future. My concern is that these climate models have the same problem. That the basic theory and parameters are so little understood that they have ended up hind casting the climate and are perfectly useless for predicting the future.

ATheoK
Reply to  Lowell
May 5, 2021 7:30 pm

Past performance is no guarantee of future performance…

Ken Irwin
Reply to  Lowell
May 6, 2021 12:27 am

This persistent adjustment is from a scientific perspective a conjuring trick – If you have ever used a satellite navigation system to get somewhere, it makes an estimate of your time of arrival at your destination. It keeps on adjusting this ETA and surprise, surprise, when you get to your destination the estimate is spot on (not its original estimate however).
To claim successful predictions from persistently adjusted models is nonsense ! They will always get you to where you are ! Just like SatNav does.
 
I find it totally unsurprising that computer models crafted about the premise that CO2 causes warming do in fact predict warming from CO2 increases. Especially when such modelling ignores most all other sources and causes of warming.     Abracadabra !

Ed Reid
Reply to  Ken Irwin
May 6, 2021 3:55 am

The most common causes of satnav ETA adjustments are rest stops, food stops, fuel stops and traffic. Our 8 hour (predicted) trip to Ohio typically takes ~9 hours because of the accumulation of such issues, which are not factors in the satnav ETA calculation.

Latitude
Reply to  Ken Irwin
May 7, 2021 6:05 am

sounds like a hurricane prediction to me Ken….and shock and awe….they are always spot on at land fall

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Lowell
May 6, 2021 4:58 am

“Decades ago I subscribed to a financial service that had a graph that predicted stock market changes,. Every month it was adjusted to accurately predict the past. Unfortunately it could never predict the future. My concern is that these climate models have the same problem.”

But the past the climate computer models are “accurately” predicting are not representative of the real temperature history. The computer models are accutately predicting temperatures that only exist in a computer model, not in reality. Reality doesn’t look anything like these computer models.

RickWill
Reply to  Lowell
May 6, 2021 8:58 pm

My concern is that these climate models have the same problem. 

My concern is the ease at which the past gets changed to suit the upward trend of the models.

This has become common practice for climate modellers. Absurd cooling of the past to maintain a warming trend.

Attached shows so much past cooling in the Nino34 region that the 1998 El Nion simp[ly could not have occurred.

I have pointed this out to climate prognosticators in Australia and the UK and their only response is that their models are middle of the road. They are long past reality.

Slide2.PNG
May 5, 2021 7:06 pm

You have chosen a pretty bad example to claim models are inaccurate in prediction. First and obvious is that the period 1979-2020 is not testing a prediction, and it is not of global warming, but SST.

But there are two major flaws in what was done. I have described them in a post here. They are

1. The post uses KNMI data, saying it is for 68 runs from 13 models. But if you go to the KNMI page, you can see that 50 of those runs came from one model, CanESM5. And that has the highest sensitivity of all the models. This plot shows the response of Roy’s chosen variable TAS, as in fig 1, but this time with CanESM5 runs shown in faint blue, and others red. As you see, the blue are at the top, and if you compare with just the red (the other 12 models), you see a very different picture.
comment image

2. The post matches with the wrong variable, TAS, which is the near surface air temperature. He is comparing with measured SST. But the models return a true SST variable, TOS. This has not yet been posted at KNMI, but some data has been at a repository at University of Melbourne. If you use the correct variable, it looks like this:
comment image

Again the two CanESM groups listed are at the top. I have compared with two major global SST indices, HADSST4 and NOAAsst. The picture is now very different. If the obs were models, you’d say they were mid-range, perhaps just a little below average, but probably right on if you exclude the CanESM runs. There is no indication of model inaccuracy, and certainly not by a factor of two.

Last edited 6 months ago by Nick Stokes
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 5, 2021 8:13 pm

A couple of links didn’t come through. The post describing the first graph is here
And the KNMI page is here

Chris Hanley
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 5, 2021 8:43 pm

At the link: I’m not sure what the acronyms mean (TOS TAS etc.) but if I’m reading the graph’s correctly most if not all the observations are at the lower end of the latest model spread, definitely below the ensemble mean.
From what I’ve read the CMIP6 models spread is wider that the previous CMIP5 so apparently the modellers have ‘learnt nothing and forgotten nothing’.

Reply to  Chris Hanley
May 5, 2021 8:52 pm

“are at the lower end of the latest model spread, definitely below the ensemble mean”
Yes, that can happen. It’s unlikely that observations come out dead centre, and about equally likely that they will be above or below. The point is that they are well within the range, which doesn’t refute the models.

“From what I’ve read the CMIP6 models spread is wider”

It is early days. One very “warm” model CanESM5 has produced a lot of runs early. See how it settles down as data comes in. 

Dave Fair
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 5, 2021 10:40 pm

The observations are not “well within the range.” It takes Super El Ninos to drive observations anywhere above the bottom of the range.

Also, please remember that the “experts” in the UN IPCC AR5 had to arbitrarily lower the CMIP5 projections because they were running so far above observations. CliSci models are not sufficient reason to fundamentally alter our society, economy and energy systems. Marxism fails.

Weekly_rise
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 6, 2021 6:24 am

It seems quite obvious to my eyes that the observations are within the range of model results. A bit below the mean but not on the lowest end. If you want to claim that the models have “gotten it wrong” you have to show that observations fall outside of the range of model results.

Shanghai Dan
Reply to  Weekly_rise
May 6, 2021 8:21 am

If your bank said your account was “300 +/- 100”, and you know it is actually 385, how reliable is your bank?

Now what if your bank said your account was “400 +/- 100” and you had that same 385?

In modeling, precision of the baseline matters. Gaussian distributions are important, and when you’re out on the tail-end of a distribution, it means your underlying assumptions that drive the mean are probably wrong – and you’re letting tolerance save you.

Weekly_rise
Reply to  Shanghai Dan
May 6, 2021 12:28 pm

In the first case I would say the balance falls quite obviously within the bank’s margin of error, and we can probably learn something from studying why it’s on the lower end of their range. In neither case would I say the banks estimates have been refuted.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Weekly_rise
May 6, 2021 11:17 am

Are your eyes calibrated for statistical significance, which you have previously shown a preference for?

Dave Fair
Reply to  Weekly_rise
May 6, 2021 12:41 pm

The “range of model results” does not reflect any physical properties; the global average temperatures of the different models vary by 3C. And each group of modelers tune individual models to get an ECS that “seems about right” (their statements) based upon their individual ‘noble cause’ estimations.

Outside the late 20th Century ‘tuning period,’ individual model hindcast and forecast outputs vary by huge ranges; large enough to be scientifically risible. If one model says 1940’s average temperature anomalies was ‘observed + 0.5C’ and other says it they were ‘observed – 0.5C,’ why would I believe the models’ average ‘equals observed’ proves the models are accurately representing the actual physics of global climate?

Numerous analyses by qualified scientists, modelers and mathematicians show that observed climate metrics consistently trend along the very bottom of the range of modeled metrics. Cherry picking models, forcings, time frames, etc. to prove models are accurate is evidence of scientific malpractice; they are done to convince, not to inform, average people. They are sophisticated lies.

Weekly_rise
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 6, 2021 12:55 pm

The range of model results encompasses the observations, therefore the observations do not refute the model results. Agree or disagree?

Dave Fair
Reply to  Weekly_rise
May 6, 2021 1:14 pm

I disagree. The huge range of model results invalidate the accuracy of most models. Each model is an independent entity; one cannot use their range to prove anything about their collective accuracy.

Weekly_rise
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 6, 2021 1:32 pm

If I throw 20 darts at a dartboard, the range of scores will not tell you anything about the collective accuracy of the darts as each is an independent entity, but it will certainly tell you something about the dart thrower’s grasp of the mechanics of dart throwing.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Weekly_rise
May 6, 2021 3:36 pm

What does it say about the individual skills of 20 different dart throwers? Especially if there are 20 different dartboards?

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Weekly_rise
May 6, 2021 8:20 pm

Weekly
You are basically arguing that if you double the radius of the dart board, and all the darts hit the board, it is a demonstration of the skill of the thrower.

Weekly_rise
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
May 7, 2021 7:04 am

I’m not making a commentary about model accuracy at all, but commenting on the fact that if your darts are hitting the board you can’t claim that the darts aren’t hitting the board, no matter how large the board is.

Jim Whelan
Reply to  Weekly_rise
May 7, 2021 7:43 pm

The goal is to hit the bulls-eye, not the board! The measure of success is how close the throws are to the bull eye. Being poorer than a random selection of points on the board is a very poor aim indeed!

Jim Whelan
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
May 7, 2021 7:42 pm

Deleted

Last edited 6 months ago by Jim Whelan
Bob boder
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 6, 2021 1:24 pm

Nick

I have been reading your post for as long as I can remember, I frankly can’t take it any more, if you want to play games and eliminate the model runs that are on the high side that’s fine but they are the same ones that climate the scare nuts use to prove the world is in danger. You know as well as anyone it’s not and that the warming is neither dangerous nor frankly harmful. RGB said it many times, if we could have run away warming then why hasn’t it ever happened before, simple it can’t. We have had run away cooling though and that is the life and society killer. Please just stop, you are fooling yourself and you are way too smart to let that continue. There are millions and millions of kids living with debilitating anxiety worrying about this nonsense, the harm that is being done is real and it’s time to stand up and be counted.

RickWill
Reply to  Bob boder
May 6, 2021 9:13 pm

Reality will prevail.

There is a desperate attempt to mask the obvious and the innocent, uneducated wokeful keep the belief alive.

There is only so much past cooling and failed doomsday forecasts that any generation can handle.

On the other hand, eventually the world will need to wean off fossil fuels and that challenge cannot be underestimated. You only have to look at the hopeful wokes who believe wind and solar are viable.

China has about 30 years of known coal reserves. Hopefully that will improve with more exploration but it does put some urgency on finding an alternative.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 5, 2021 10:33 pm

Actually, the observations are running along the bottom of the red curves. The models still fail.

Weekly_rise
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 6, 2021 12:26 pm

It’s because the two variables being compared are different things – the models are showing surface air temperature and the observations are of sea surface temperatures. You need to look at the second graph to see an apples to apples comparison.

Jim Gorman
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 6, 2021 7:47 am

You are trying to deflect away from the accuracy claim. Both of your graphs show a range in the models that is about 5 times the range of measured temperatures. Averaging model values that are inaccurate to begin with results in nothing approaching accuracy.

Example: Would you accept this from your stock broker? Why are climate forecasts any less important than stock forecasts?

Lastly, the regional breakdowns I have seen from these models are worse than a joke. If models can not accurately show regions, i.e., parts, how can the sum add up to an accurate whole? That’s like saying I know the final speed of an object but I have no idea of the mass or acceleration involved.

DMA
Reply to  Jim Gorman
May 6, 2021 11:35 am

The precision of the models is questionable due to the tuning needed to keep them in the same ball park even though they are incoherent. However their accuracy is unknown due to the propagation of the uncertainty in them. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2019.00223/full

Jim Gorman
Reply to  DMA
May 6, 2021 3:55 pm

I’ve written a number of posts on why the temperature databases and averages from them are subject to measurement uncertainty. The propagation of that uncertainty should be carried through to the calculations of anomalies but climate scientists have any number of mathematicians who incorrectly choose to use the error of the mean as a measure of accuracy and precision. It is ridiculous and any good tool and die maker or master machinist would tell you the same thing.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Jim Gorman
May 6, 2021 11:47 am

Jim

Back about 1996 I was working for the city of Scottsdale on a NASA grant, as the remote sensing team leader. Our task was to apply satellite remote sensing to urban problems, particularly trying to accurately estimate the impervious percentage of the city. We were using thematic classifiers of Landsat imagery. There was a flap when a subcontractor working for a nearby university, which shall go un-named, came up with an estimate that exactly matched the number I had obtained from manual photo-interpretation, 50%. I had shared my results with the city’s hydrologist, which he then apparently shared with others. Anxious to get more funding from NASA, and without checking with me, the managers of the grant put up on the city website that they had achieved 100% accuracy. This, when state-of-the-art thematic classifiers more typically provided something in the neighborhood of about 65% accuracy for Landsat classification of urban areas.

The point of the introduction is that there is an infinite number of ways to arrive at the number, which are all wrong. That is, potentially, the pervious and impervious could be reversed and still get 50%. As an example, patches of creosote bush often classified as dark asphalt paving, because of the large shadow component. More likely, some number of the pixels will be mis-classified and balance each other out, but still be wrong. This is critical because the hydrology computer models use hydrologic basins, not the the whole city.

A proper classification analysis takes into account errors of omission and errors of comission, at the pixel level, and a table is constructed showing two accuracy measures.

This brings us back to your remark, “If models can not accurately show regions, i.e., parts, how can the sum add up to an accurate whole?” They can sum up, but there is no guarantee that next time they will! That is, random errors can cancel each other, but there is little predictive value unless the sub-parts are accurate. As I have remarked before, the greatest sin in science is to be right for the wrong reason.

beng135
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 6, 2021 12:33 pm

Fine and dandy Nick, but HADSST4/NOAAsst are close by fudging parameters to get them close. Their values for aerosol forcing/TCS are way too high, countering each other.

Last edited 6 months ago by beng135
Reply to  beng135
May 6, 2021 5:28 pm

“Their values for aerosol forcing/TCS are way too high, countering each other.”
I don’t know what you think HADSST4 and NOAAsst are, but they have do not involve aerosol forcing or TCS. They are observed temperature indices.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 9, 2021 7:03 pm

I think he meant that UN IPCC CliSciFi modelers have been using aerosol forcing to match the adjusted datasets. I speculate that the new shift to playing with cloud feedback parameters in CMIP6 is related to people catching onto the aerosol forcing scam in parametrization.

I don’t take kindly to gamesters lightly playing with millions of lives and trillions of dollars. These are the stakes that CliSciFi practitioners so lightly throw out on the table. Evil at any level.

RickWill
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 6, 2021 9:16 pm

A challenge for Nick Stokes;
Take a look at all the model predictions for the Nino34 region then compare with the NOAA/NCEP SST data for the same region.

Then tell me why the models all show an upward trend where there is none and cannot be one!

Last edited 6 months ago by RickWill
ATheoK
May 5, 2021 7:19 pm

Hausfather is a member of the religious climate team and not trustworthy.

Reply to  ATheoK
May 5, 2021 8:02 pm

It’s pretty hard to run a pro/con argument if you dismiss any pro presenter on that basis

Redge
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 6, 2021 12:28 am

I agree with you, Nick.

Of course, it’s also pretty hard to have a pro/con debate when sceptics are de-platformed and the media enter into agreements to suppress dissent from the warming narrative.

beng135
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 6, 2021 12:35 pm

That would be true unless the pro presenter is a obvious decades-long apparatchik. Like you-know-who.

Last edited 6 months ago by beng135
Dave Fair
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 9, 2021 7:12 pm

I have mixed feelings about that, Nick. Personal attacks are always unacceptable. Having said that, the CliSciFi team has a dismal record in total honesty. From Climategate to other revelations of bias, people rightly question the objectivity of many of those involved in the climate change game. Having said that, if you don’t agree that Michael Mann is an odious person, I can’t go along with you.

Rick C
May 5, 2021 7:33 pm

In the PRO (GISS) section the animation shows the current anomoly as 0.77C while the chart shows about 1.2C. There are different baseline periods for all the data presented so difficult to compare between them. I do think is should be pointed out that Roy Spencer’s chart is for sea surface temperatures not air temperatures. To properly compare models to observations all data presented should for the same thing. Also, when model data is shown the RCP (8.5, 4.6, 2.4?) should be indicated.

Also think the NASA/GISS animation is deceptive as it does not indicate where historical data ends and model projections begin. If all is model results, the “tuning” period should be clearly marked as it is forced to match observations and hence does not demonstrate model prediction skill.

Last edited 6 months ago by Rick C
Stephen W
May 5, 2021 7:44 pm

Even if that NASA video was correct, which it’s absolutely not.
Is it even useful to make the visual for a 3 degree temperature range go from blue to red/black?
Can the average human even feel a three degree temperature difference? Let alone over their lifetime?

I think a more useful colour scheme would be those actually felt, say, the difference between winter and summer, So about a 20 degree range between blue and red.

But we know why they don’t use useful temperature ranges..

It sure was cold back in the 1900’s and 1930’s haha

Reply to  Stephen W
May 5, 2021 8:05 pm

It’s actually a 6° range. And that just happens to be the difference between now and the coldest of the glaciation.

Stephen W
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 5, 2021 10:05 pm

Don’t know where you get 6 degrees from.
Video started at -0.3 degrees, finished at 2.3 degrees.
So a 2.6 degree range.

Reply to  Stephen W
May 5, 2021 10:45 pm

The color scale, which was commented on, goes from -3° to 3°.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 6, 2021 12:45 pm

Why?

Abolition Man
May 5, 2021 8:06 pm

Charles (and Anthony,)
Why do we continue to flog the alarmists with wet noodles, when we have hammers and mauls at our disposal!? Arguing model accuracy is an interesting technical problem that MOST of the public isn’t interested or well schooled in! By allowing the Climate Media Complex to continue to lie about the current state of the planet and how it compares to the past we cede them way too credibility, which they have not earned in any way!
The globe is in an Ice Age! CO2 levels are STILL too close to starvation levels for most plants, and the natural processes that deposit carbonates as shells or rocks have not diminished a bit! We should be asking alarmists how THEY propose to deal with these REAL problems, not let them control the argument and make moderate warming that may be entirely natural AND beneficial be painted as an apocalypse!
Graphs like Global Surface Temperature Anomoly (Hansen,2008) and Cycles of Global Climate Change (Nahle, 2009) practically make our arguments for us! That Jim Hansen could produce a graph like he did in 2008 and still be an alarmist shows his questionable character, and there are probably dozens of other charts and graphs that could be used in presentations to the public. They don’t know the recent geologic history of the Earth and anyone who looks closely at the last 50 or 60 million years has got to wonder what the big fuss is all about!
Alarmists need to be asked why they want to spend TRILLIONS of dollars on actions that may endanger or KILL all life on Earth! I don’t think that there is a convincing answer to that!

Last edited 6 months ago by Abolition Man
Graemethecat
Reply to  Abolition Man
May 6, 2021 3:46 am

I agree. Ordinary people are unlikely to be moved by graphs like the ones above. However, they are far from stupid, and can use their own senses and memories to disprove the CAGW idiocy. Unlike the Guardian/CNN fanclub, they know when the elites are lying to them.

We really need to rub the Alarmists’ noses in all their failed predictions of Climate Disaster.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Abolition Man
May 6, 2021 5:05 am

I couldn’t agree more. AM!

Jim Gorman
Reply to  Abolition Man
May 6, 2021 7:55 am

I have found heating and cooling degree days to be a better argument especially when dealing with folks familiar with HVAC. Ask them if they have had to review their current and future systems to take CAGW into account!

It goes back to the sum of the parts questions. Most locations have local and regional info on heating/cooling degree days. Look and see what changes have occurred in local locations.

Simon
Reply to  Abolition Man
May 6, 2021 11:35 am

Alarmists need to be asked why they want to spend TRILLIONS of dollars on actions that may endanger or KILL all life on Earth! “
Kill all like on earth…..Sorry that’s just BS talk. Tell me who the alarmist is now?

Jim Gorman
Reply to  Simon
May 6, 2021 3:59 pm

It is no more BS talk than the predictions from the CAGW folks. We KNOW what will happen should CO2 fall to 150 ppm. Do you think 220 ppm is far away enough from 150 ppm to be confident of all life on earth disappearing?

Simon
Reply to  Jim Gorman
May 6, 2021 4:39 pm

It’s BS for either side to say “all life on earth will die” and no reasonable person in this debate says that. Life will carry on no matter what we do, the concern is the quality of that life for some who inhabit this earth may be affected.

Editor
May 5, 2021 8:16 pm

Gads –nonsensical ! The PRO talks about air temperature and uses only Hausfather’s single evaluation of models against one single GAST data set.

The CON section talks about Sea Surface Temperatures — which are questionable (not sure if we are talking Sea Surface Skin Temps from satellites or actual 0-10 meter sea surface water temperaturs).

In any case, the comparison is APPLES and LEMONS.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Kip Hansen
May 5, 2021 8:35 pm

Kip
I agree. This is a classic example of ‘apples & lemons!’ Both comparisons should use the same metric of Earth’s temperature. Because most of the catastrophic claims are related to what land-air temperatures are going to do, I think that should be the metric for comparisons.

Last edited 6 months ago by Clyde Spencer
Dave Fair
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
May 5, 2021 10:54 pm

Bulk atmospheric temperatures and humidity provide the only level playing field comparing apples to apples. One can jiggle observations of any other metric.

No observed tropospheric hot spot. An observed tropospheric 42-year temperature trend of only 0.14 C/decade, during a cyclical warming period. UN IPCC climate models are bunk.

Jim Gorman
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
May 6, 2021 7:58 am

Use heating/cooling degree days. Less likely hood of jiggering the values.

Reply to  Kip Hansen
May 5, 2021 8:54 pm

Kip,
True, but I think the greater difference is that PRO tests a prediction, while the CON tests hind-casting.

I do think this PRO/CON series needs to give more attention to whether the two are talking about the same thing.

dk_
May 5, 2021 8:27 pm

Of course mathematical computer models are accurate. The same software is also innaccurate. With computer models, you run a simulation many times, changing inputs and refining calculations, producing a wide variety of results. Wait until your next real world sample time, then select the results from the list that match somewhat closely with the measurement. Then you refine the model and run again.
This isn’t reliable prediction. Nothing in the NASA article says that they didn’t do it that way. A scientifically and statistically honest study must show their work, must be auditable, and must be reproducible. Is the model software source code (with change log, design documentation, and comment) available to audit or protected as copyright/proprietary? Is the software organization certified under ISO (or other) standard? Is the software organization under third-party supervision? Where are the failed trial runs and system test records kept? Our loving government masters graciously require these standards for other government agency software contractors. NASA doesn’t have a great record on this account.
The IPCC projection they picked was billed as an unlikely, low extreme. This is also gaming the result.
But it is nice to hear that even NASA verifies that Global Warming is really likely closest to, but less than, the best possible warming scenario. It is even possibly in the “noise” for data sampling, given the error in precision of readings, light sampling, and variability in the interpretation of recorded data. Good news all around.

Dave Fair
May 5, 2021 8:43 pm

Why does Zeke’s model/data comparisons end in 2017? Why not 2018? 2019? 2020? Do the models continue with significant warming after 2017? It appears we have another plateau post 2017. I’m going to continue to read and analyze this post.

Reply to  Dave Fair
May 5, 2021 9:06 pm

Zeke’s paper appeared in 2019

Dave Fair
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 5, 2021 10:58 pm

The post only said it had been approved for publication. It did not say that it had been published.

Reply to  Dave Fair
May 5, 2021 11:59 pm

It was. It appeared Dec 2019

Clyde Spencer
May 5, 2021 8:58 pm

Without an agreement, or at least a proposed definition on the meaning of accuracy, we are in the realm of arguing about how many angels can line-dance on the stem of a thermometer.

Generally, something in the area of +/- 10% is accepted as a good working-approximation. However, when one can say that a measurement is less than +/- 1%, it is getting into the area of what most would consider accurate, such as a high-precision resistor. Alarmists claim that they can measure the average global temperature to 0.01 deg C; that implies a standard deviation of about 0.005 deg C. Therefore, I’d suggest that a working definition of “accurate” to be a Business-as-Usual scenario providing a forecast that is within +/-0.01 deg C of the measured temps, which is two standard deviations.

If you want to work with anomalies instead of measured temperatures, then I’d suggest a forecast in the range of +/- 5% as the definition of “accurate.”

Last edited 6 months ago by Clyde Spencer
Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
May 5, 2021 9:13 pm

An alternative metric for accurate temperatures might be an OLS linear regression on the Business-as-usual scenario forecast that has a slope within +/- 5% of the observations, during the forecast interval.

The agreement for the historical, tuning phase is irrelevant to the accuracy of forecasts to be used for policy decisions. However, I suspect that it won’t meet the 5% criteria.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
May 5, 2021 11:03 pm

CliSci models miss the documented early 20th Century warming period.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 6, 2021 5:13 am

They miss it on purpose. Because the Early 20th Century warming doesn’t fit the alarmist’s “hotter and hotter” narrative. They can’t claim we are living in the warmest times in human history if they admit it was just as warm in the Early 20th Century. It blows up their “unprecedented warmth” claims and demonstrates that CO2 is not controlling the Earth’s temperatures.

Jim Gorman
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
May 6, 2021 8:09 am

I agree. What we have are mathematicians driving the scenarios who have no real world experience in physical measurements. Numbers can have any length of decimal places with no problem. Get one to tell you a PHYSICAL reason for the number of decimal places they use.

Show this to any tool and die maker and they will laugh their heads off.

Dave Fair
May 5, 2021 9:00 pm

The results of the referenced GISS AR4 (CMIP3?) model should be compared to various longer term and satellite era actual data sets. IIRC, CMIP3 model average forecasts diverged by factors of 2 or 3 from actuals, depending on the metric chosen. I do not have the skill sets required for that work. Anybody else?

Beware of the Pros [/s] dicking around with adjusting model outputs after the fact to compensate for changes in model input assumptions.

Boulder Skeptic
May 5, 2021 9:00 pm

Two thoughts…
1. Egads! This almost reads like a debate. I’m told by experts time for that is over!
2. Whatever the Pro folks are smoking, I may want some if that.

Clyde Spencer
May 5, 2021 9:01 pm

It is late, and I don’t have time to chase it down before I go to bed. However, the observations (red line) in the first graph, don’t look like the comparisons to model ensembles I have seen. There is something wrong here!

Last edited 6 months ago by Clyde Spencer
Bill Toland
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
May 5, 2021 10:48 pm

Clyde, the “observations” in the first graph come from GISTEMP. You can see how much credibility these “observations” have by looking at 1998 in the red line.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
May 9, 2021 8:40 pm

I thought that I had found what I was looking for here:
https://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/HHRG-114-SY-WState-JCristy-20160202.pdf
Unfortunately I get a 404 error and automatically directed to a current (2021) committee meeting! It appears to have been removed.
However, should you want to see the graphic, it can be found at Will Happers talk at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIMpjh_7-bw starting at 31:00

May 5, 2021 9:33 pm

We should not give a crap about a correlation claimed as causation in the natural science, i.e. a highly adjusted surface temp anomalies by an agency and comparing those anomalies to that same agency’s own model outputs. i.e. , NASA/GISS is a self-licking ice cream cone.

The CMIP 3/5 ensembles have made very specific predictions about GHG effects as a signature/fingerprint to look for. That prediction of GHG effect is a fingerprint of warming in a specific location in the mid-troposphere. That prediction has been falsified by both ensembles’s own predictions of a mid-tropospheric tropical hotspot ( @ 5km – 10 km alt, 8 km median) that is not observed by 3 decade+ of both weather balloon (radiosonde) data or by satellite (AMSU) measurement. This is an epic hypothesis failure that the climate scam community (NASA/GISS, et al) must gloss-over to keep the scam running.

When your hypothesis makes a prediction that is utterly and unequivocably not observed, science says the hypothesis must be chucked to the waste bin. In climate science case, data is simply altered now to keep the hypothesis viable for a few more years, and thus the climate scam chugging along, with socialist/marxists politicans enabling the climate charlatans and propaganda coming from NASA.

Last edited 6 months ago by joelobryan
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
May 5, 2021 10:38 pm

“a highly adjusted surface temp anomalies by an agency and comparing those anomalies to that same agency’s own model outputs”

I point this out endlessly, but GISS do not adjust temperatures. They use NOAA’s GHCN V4 adjusted (and ERSST). I also point out that I do my own calculation with unadjusted GHCN V4 and get very similar results to GISS (April was cool).

“unequivocably not observed”
It is observed

Dave Fair
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 5, 2021 11:15 pm

Nick, read Joel’s second paragraph.

Tom Karl’s 2015 adjustments to ERSST has been shown to be in error. They will eventually have to revisit the use of nighttime marine air temperatures (NMAT) to adjust SST; the divergence is becoming significant.

Newminster
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 6, 2021 3:34 am

Joel didn’t say GISS adjusted temperatures; he simply pointed out that the anomalies were adjusted. You do admit in your second sentence that the anomalies are adjusted.

This (occasionally struggling) layman agrees with Dave Fair (and Joel’s second paragraph):

“The CMIP 3/5 ensembles have made very specific predictions about GHG effects as a signature/fingerprint to look for. That prediction of GHG effect is a fingerprint of warming in a specific location in the mid-troposphere. That prediction has been falsified by both ensembles’s own predictions of a mid-tropospheric tropical hotspot ( @ 5km – 10 km alt, 8 km median) that is not observed by 3 decade+ of both weather balloon (radiosonde) data or by satellite (AMSU) measurement. This is an epic hypothesis failure that the climate scam community (NASA/GISS, et al) must gloss-over to keep the scam running.” (My emphasis)

It’s been stated in plain English and implied in the specificity of the prediction: no mid-troposphere hotspot, no AGW. End of! There is no climate emergency. There is no evidence that temperatures ~2°C above some plucked-out-of-the-air “pre-industrial” global temperature (which was never measured at all, let alone to the accuracy climate “science” believes possible) are anything other than beneficial. There is no real-world evidence that atmospheric CO2 concentrations affect temperature or that up to three or four times current levels would be anything other than beneficial.

To suggest, insist or predict otherwise is not scientific. The models themselves and their owners continue to prove that. They are simply playing computer games and pretending that the outcome has relevance to the real world. It doesn’t.

Weekly_rise
Reply to  Newminster
May 6, 2021 6:35 am

Nick points out that the tropospheric warming has been observed.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Weekly_rise
May 6, 2021 12:07 pm

But, the ‘Hot Spot’ has not, Captain Obvious!

Dave Fair
Reply to  Weekly_rise
May 6, 2021 12:55 pm

Misdirection, W_r. Minor warming is not the modeled significant warming.

Reply to  Newminster
May 6, 2021 7:48 am

“Joel didn’t say GISS adjusted temperatures; he simply pointed out that the anomalies were adjusted.”
He said
“a highly adjusted surface temp anomalies by an agency and comparing those anomalies to that same agency’s own model outputs”

“by an agency”, “that same agency”. Are you saying that same agency isn’t GISS?

Newminster
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 6, 2021 10:55 am

They use NOAA’s GHCN V4 adjusted ...” ‘Adjusted’ means ‘adjusted’ where I come from.

Lrp
Reply to  Nick Stokes
May 6, 2021 4:17 am

You really calculated that April was cool?

TheFinalNail
Reply to  Lrp
May 6, 2021 1:55 pm

Yes. According to Nick, down 0.165C from March and the coolest April since 2013. Did you not follow the link?

Mike McMillan
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
May 5, 2021 10:39 pm

I think the models quite accurately predict future adjustments to the climate datasets.

Graemethecat
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
May 6, 2021 5:47 am

The GHG Hypothesis has also been comprehensively falsified by the observation of declining temperatures between 1940 and 1980, at a time when CO2 was rising rapidly, and by the ice-core record, which shows that temperatures have always changed before atmospheric CO2.

Dave Fair
May 5, 2021 10:02 pm

When the actual study comes out, there are a number of areas to scrutinize. The biggest is the criteria for selecting only 17 models (out of potentially hundreds). Additionally, what were the forcing scenarios used in each? The propagandists use RCP8.5 as BAU, whereas this study may input model forcings of much smaller concentrations. The offensive unit of the CliSci Team uses exaggerated scenarios, while the defensive unit of the CliSci Team points to the reasonable information hidden in the bureaucratic verbiage of massive UN IPCC documents where the summaries contradict the buried science.

As asked earlier, why end the evaluation at 2017? Additionally, why not compare model hindcasts to early 20th Century actuals? We know models don’t pick up significant warming during that period.

In addition to estimated (surface air?) GISTEMP data, what were the other “multiple” sources used to evaluate the models? Averaging many different sorts of data to arrive at a single global average temperature is fraught with many opportunities for noble cause bias.

Is this study meant to “prove” something rather than “explain” something? If the study makes it into the UN IPCC AR6, will rebuttals/comments be included also?

Paul Johnson
May 5, 2021 10:04 pm

This seems like an oranges-to-lemons comparison. We have two different suites of models compared to two different sets of “actual” observations, one in Celsius and one in Fahrenheit. At a minimum, plot GISTEMP and ERSSTv5 onto both sets of model results.

John Dueker
May 5, 2021 10:11 pm

I have a concern with the title conceding the position to the alarmist cause then having to work back. Instead of the article beginning “Pro: Climate Models Have Been Demonstrated to be Accurate.” I’d have the bold headline “How accurate are climate models” followed by some con arguments, then the Alarmist argument, then reiterate our argument, or something similar.

I understand trying to be completely balanced but many will read the headline and think the alarmist models are correct.

Another way might be to just flip the arguments. But it’s our document don’t hamstring truth. Don’t give away the initiative before the discussion even starts.

Petit_Barde
May 5, 2021 10:21 pm

Waooh …

The GISS clowns even made disappear the 1998 El Niño … that’s a great achievement in fakery and charlatanism.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Petit_Barde
May 6, 2021 5:28 am

The Temperature Data Manipulators had to make 1998 insignficant to enable them to be able to claim that year after year in the 21st Century was the “hottest year evah!”.

If the scam artists had left 1998 were it was originally, then they couldn’t have said “hottest year evah!” until 2016.

The Demoting of 1998, allowed the alarmists to continue their scary tale of unprecedented warming for years.

These guys are accomplished liars.

Fortunately, the UAH satellite chart keeps 1998 in the proper perspective with regard to subsequent years.

The UAH chart:

comment image

On the UAH satellite chart, the year 1998 is statistically tied with 2016, for the warmest year since the Early Twentieth Century (the margin of error of the measuring instrument is 0.1C).

NASA and NOAA couldn’t say “hottest year evah!” year after year, if they went by the UAH chart. They would have to keep their mouths shut until they got to 2016.

So NASA and NOAA modified their charts to allow them to lie to the American people and the world about the state of the Earth’s climate.

TheFinalNail
Reply to  Tom Abbott
May 6, 2021 2:03 pm

the margin of error of the measuring instrument is 0.1C

Is it an error of the ‘instrument’ or of the conversion process from radiances to temperature, which itself requires computer modelling?

Why would NASA and NOAA go by the UAH chart when they are measuring two different things? Also, if the used the RSS chart instead of the UAH chart then there would be good agreement.

Why such faith here that UAH is better than RSS, given the history? At least once RSS forced UAH to amend its record – towards warmer.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  TheFinalNail
May 8, 2021 3:46 am

“Why such faith here that UAH is better than RSS, given the history?”

Well, the weather balloon data agreeing with the UAH chart data would be one reason I would favor UAH over others. We have two different data sets that agree on temperature.

I woud be suspect of any data set that did not agree with the weather balloon data, which would include all the data sets except UAH.

Dave Fair
Reply to  TheFinalNail
May 8, 2021 8:09 pm

IIRC: 1) One of the satellite AMSU units (14?) was faulty and UAH removed its data and 2) UAH uses empirical data to adjust for satellite drift and RSS uses models. Finally, I think RSS’s Mears is a nasty twit to keep harping on errors corrected by UAH decades ago.

Gary Pearse
May 5, 2021 10:26 pm

“But if we waste trillions of dollars (that’s just here in the U.S. — meanwhile, China will always do what is in the best interests of China) then that is trillions of dollars not available for the real necessities of life.”

It’s far worse than this. The West’s “net zero” carbon policy will simply be to no effect in term of stated global CO2 emission reductions needed to meet intentions of the Paris Accord with the entire rest of the world (not just China) already building hundreds of new coal fired plants.

We are talking about ~5 billion people who are already on the road to prosperity (Bangladesh GDP is growing at 15% a year, Pakistan 9-10%, India has large coal reserves and they are going to tender on their massive development, Africa will be building dozens of power stations over the next few years). They have new coal gen stations. Both Al Gore and Kerry have spoken to some of these countries – all have said they are not going to compromise their growth.

Nevermind just the electrification of these countries. With prosperity they will be more than doubling the worlds automobile and truck fleet. They will be needing thousands of cement and lime plants, iron and steel plants,
mining operations for there construction boom over 30-40years. These folk will want air conditioning, travel, nice homes…. I think a rewrite with this very real, imminent foresight is required. CO2 emissions will accelerate and drown out the puny reductions the West’s talking about. The big CO2 experiment is underway and unstoppable.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Gary Pearse
May 6, 2021 5:35 am

“The big CO2 experiment is underway and unstoppable.”

That’s the bottom line. When wil the Western alarmists face reality and stop trying to put off the inevitable?

It’s not so bad: There’s no evidence that additional CO2 will cause us any harm. The only harm from CO2 will come from delusional Western leaders spending tax dollars trying to fix something that doesn’t need fixing.

Tom
May 5, 2021 11:07 pm

Which RCP is the basis for the model runs?

Dave Fair
Reply to  Tom
May 5, 2021 11:33 pm

Figures don’t lie, but liars figure [model].

Tom
May 5, 2021 11:31 pm

Truthfulness would demand that the model forecast vs actual include a second y-axis with the model vs actual CO2.

lee
May 6, 2021 12:05 am

“Moreover, after accounting for differences between modeled and actual changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide” – meaning the models passed after adjustment; we just don’t know all the adjustments.

May 6, 2021 12:05 am

I am not sure what mr. Rotter wants from us. Pro and con led me to believe I am about to see two points of view on an issue, and maybe a hypothesis/ synthesis at the end. What I see is two sets of data not provably related, and no hypothesis, conclusion or question to bind the two very separate chapters together. Besides, discussing climate on a fifty-year spread of data ignores all those perplexing cycles and subcycles and emergent spikes and geologic upheavals that visitors to this site love to endlessly discuss. In other words, there ain’t no nothing to talk about here.
Or am I being stupid again?

Last edited 6 months ago by paranoid goy
Chris Hanley
May 6, 2021 12:10 am

Since no-one knows (including the IPCC) how much of the observed warming is due to the increasing CO2 concentration while the models assume all the observed warming is due to CO2, there is no way the models can ever be validated by the observations.

Redge
May 6, 2021 12:32 am

Is there space for a discussion on the futility of determining an average global anomaly when the concept of a global average temperature is suspect?

Reply to  Redge
May 6, 2021 3:12 am

I just cut up a sheep and packed it into my freezer. I set the thermostat to -4 degrees Celsius, but the meat is not frozen. The thermometer reads 14 degrees between packets, but -6 at the funny riffled plate at the side of the frieezer.
I am also baking a birthday cake for my cat, the oven is set at 180degrees Fahrenheit.
The thermometer in my smartphone says the lounge table is at 23 Celcius, but in my sunny bathroom, it is 31.
What is the average temperature of my house?
Only a climastrologist could say…

Redge
Reply to  paranoid goy
May 6, 2021 3:35 am

If I were a climastrologist I would respond, “What answer do you want to support your agenda?”.

Steve Z
Reply to  paranoid goy
May 6, 2021 7:47 am

A climastrologist would use the oven temperature, since it maximizes the warming.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  paranoid goy
May 6, 2021 12:20 pm

The way the average temperature is calculated depends on the question that is to be answered. Finding the mid-range temperature, as is done for daily temperatures, is probably the least useful approach. However, the point is that the average temperature of the house probably isn’t germane to any practical problem. That is why I have long advocated for showing the range of temperature as two separate lines, and to do it for all the climate regions instead of the whole Earth. You have demonstrated that there is more useful information in the locations of the individual temperature measured in your house.

Hubert
May 6, 2021 12:49 am

no doubt about the model for last 40 years , BUT it will change next years due to AMO new cycle … wait and see … It’s the same if you look on a small portion of a sinusoid , you can just see a straight line ….

CO2isLife
May 6, 2021 5:09 am

I’ve been making the argument for years that we need Crowd-Sourced, Open Source Climate Models. Michael Mann’s Hockeystick would never have passed public scrutiny. Just look what Steve McIntyre did to it. That kind of scrutiny needs to be applied to all of Climate Change.

Also, WUWT should go to Dr. Spencer’s Blog and download the data:
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt

Sort the data by Month and then Year.

Create Monthly Charts for the South Pole Data.

You will see that if you remove Water Vapor and the UHI Effect, which is what the S Pole does, you will see that increasing CO2 by 30% has absolutely 0.00% impact on temperatures.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  CO2isLife
May 6, 2021 12:21 pm

In theory, you are arguing for peer-reviewed publication. Unfortunately, what was once peer review has been corrupted to be pal review.

D Boss
May 6, 2021 6:42 am

You cannot argue with folks who consistently put their fingers on the scale and “adjust” the raw data to fit their hypotheses. See here:

comment image

And furthermore, the “adjustments” plotted against CO2 is most revealing:

https://realclimatescience.com/2021/03/noaa-temperature-adjustments-are-doing-exactly-what-theyre-supposed-to/

Graemethecat
Reply to  D Boss
May 6, 2021 9:14 am

This is outright criminal behaviour. Who are the people who perpetrated this, and why are they not in prison?

Dave Fair
Reply to  D Boss
May 6, 2021 7:16 pm

With each successive year, the temperature adjustments compared to CO2 concentrations are getting larger and larger exponentially. This would normally imply that year over year measuring devices and/or observational techniques are becoming much worse as time goes along or that the relationship between the two is screwy. Am I not seeing something here?

Last edited 6 months ago by Dave Fair
Steve Z
May 6, 2021 7:32 am

On the top graph, where did GISS get an “observed” warming of about 0.8 to 0.9 C from 2000 to 2019? Haven’t we been in a “pause” since about 1998? Welcome to the GISS pseudo-scientific method: if the data don’t match the models, fudge the data.

DMacKenzie
May 6, 2021 9:44 am

“Obversations” is in the title of Fig 1…oops…

sailor76
May 6, 2021 9:45 am

If “Carbon Pollution” is a real thing, we should reject all forms of Carbon, right? I mean Carbon is just bad! How about that Diamond thing, every woman seems to want? It’s pure Carbon, should not be allowed!

Jim Whelan
May 6, 2021 10:46 am

“There’s an old saying that ‘the proof is in the pudding’,”

This is absolutely one of my pet peeves. The old saying IS NOT “the proof is in the pudding” the saying IS, “The proof of the pudding [is in the eating]!” Why can’t people get this right?

Paul Murphy
May 6, 2021 1:24 pm

1 – Nearly two decades ago I reviewed the source for one of the then major models and found: first, that most of the code related to using parallelism to increase apparent resolution; and, second, that the model itself largely consisted of a 1960s fortran card deck with thousands of grad-student style adhoc adjustments and improvements since – many of them effectively hard wiring in stuff to yield better hind casting results.

As a result I have believed ever since that the right way to model climate is to model energy flows into, and out of, cubic regions – i.e. diviy earth + Atmos into blocks of some number of cubic meters and start by trying first to measure and then to model energy flows in and out of those blocks. There are (?) no models like this, although the best practical forecasting tools incorporate some similar ideas.

2 – the pro/con model results cannot be interpreted because both rely on doubtful data, the assumption that “temperature anomalies” exist and are measurable, and “physics models” of the kind that start with a spherical chicken in a vacuum. If I assume that the creators of these charts are honest in their own contexts I’d guess both were completely correct and the apparent contradiction a result of the fact that they reflect different data, different conceptualizations of “anomalies” and different interpretations of past forecasts. Bottom line: neither tells us anything of value.

TallDave
May 6, 2021 1:39 pm

you’re missing the most jarring discrepancy between model and output: the tropical troposphere anomaly, which is supposed to be the driver of global warming

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/CMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20N-20S-MT-5-yr-means1.png

fortunately extending the graph to present presents no effort at all as the whole update fits neatly under the legend

Last edited 6 months ago by TallDave
Dave Fair
Reply to  TallDave
May 6, 2021 5:32 pm

Anybody, other than Dr. Spencer, know how to do it? If not, does anybody know Dr. Spencer?

Could it be posted to this Thread? Other archive?

Last edited 6 months ago by Dave Fair
TallDave
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 7, 2021 1:21 pm

do what? the graph is right there already

Dave Fair
Reply to  TallDave
May 7, 2021 1:59 pm

I may be a ‘short’ Dave, but I can reason with the best of them. The graph is not the data; new data must be developed to insert onto the graph. All of the inputs to the new data must be assembled and manipulated to be consistent with the procedures used to develop the existing graphed data. My mistake was assuming that all readers would know that.

Mark BLR
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 8, 2021 8:32 am

Just downloaded the latest UAH [ uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt, “TRPCS 20S-20N” column ] and RSS [ RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TMT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v04_0.txt, “-20.0/20.0” column ] data files (to April 2021) for something else.

Following the “Squares – Avg 2 Satellite datasets” and “5-Yr Running Avgs (Trend line intercept = 0 at 1979 for all)” indicators I get the following :
Year … (UAH+RSS)/2 … Averages … Trend_at_1979=0
1979 … -0.135
1980 … -0.017
1981 … -0.174 … -0.048 … 0.168
1982 … -0.151 … -0.107 … 0.109
1983 … 0.238 … -0.195 … 0.021
1984 … -0.433 … -0.221 … -0.005
1985 … -0.455 … -0.139 … 0.077
1986 … -0.305 … -0.195 … 0.022
1987 … 0.261 … -0.196 … 0.020
1988 … -0.041 … -0.115 … 0.102
1989 … -0.439 … -0.048 … 0.169
1990 … -0.049 … -0.118 … 0.098
1991 … 0.029 … -0.133 … 0.083
1992 … -0.093 … -0.065 … 0.151
1993 … -0.116 … -0.039 … 0.177
1994 … -0.097 … -0.071 … 0.146
1995 … 0.079 … -0.038 … 0.178
1996 … -0.126 … 0.113 … 0.329
1997 … 0.069 … 0.086 … 0.303
1998 … 0.639 … 0.032 … 0.248
1999 … -0.229 … 0.057 … 0.273
2000 … -0.195 … 0.076 … 0.292
2001 … 0.002 … -0.011 … 0.205
2002 … 0.163 … 0.052 … 0.269
2003 … 0.205 … 0.134 … 0.350
2004 … 0.086 … 0.152 … 0.368
2005 … 0.214 … 0.132 … 0.348
2006 … 0.091 … 0.040 … 0.256
2007 … 0.062 … 0.046 … 0.262
2008 … -0.251 … 0.075 … 0.292
2009 … 0.116 … 0.037 … 0.253
2010 … 0.360 … 0.008 … 0.224
2011 … -0.101 … 0.084 … 0.300
2012 … -0.085 … 0.090 … 0.306
2013 … 0.127 … 0.097 … 0.313
2014 … 0.147 … 0.233 … 0.450
2015 … 0.397 … 0.310 … 0.526
2016 … 0.580 … 0.310 … 0.527
2017 … 0.298 … 0.364 … 0.580
2018 … 0.130 … 0.384 … 0.600
2019 … 0.416
2020 … 0.494

By my reckoning (2018, 0.6) is in the “gap” between the “bottom 2, sky-blue and green, lines” and the “sky-blue + orange + sky-blue” ones at the middle-right of the graph, but YMMV …

Dave Fair
Reply to  Mark BLR
May 8, 2021 7:50 pm

Yeah, Mark, my Mk1 eyeballs tell the same story. We have temperatures driven high by a Super El Nino still below the “cloud” of model predictions. Additionally, temperatures over the last few years have been falling, further invalidating the UN IPCC CliSciFi models.

Thanks alot for helping out Mark.

By the way, what does the “Averages’ column signify?

Last edited 6 months ago by Dave Fair
Dave Fair
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 8, 2021 9:08 pm

Mark, it just struck me that your result is functionally the same as Dr. Roy Spencer’s depiction of the observed SST vs 68 CMIP6 model runs, above; the actuals plot along the bottom of the graph along with the “coolest” model result!

Mark BLR
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 9, 2021 6:49 am

“By the way, what does the “Averages’ column signify?”

They’re the “(5-year, centered, rolling) Averages” of the previous column [ (UAH + RSS) / 2, annual anomalies ], to provide as close a match as possible to the “5-Yr Running Avgs …” label on Dr. Spencer’s graph.

The last, “Trend line at 1979 = 0”, column should just be that “Averages” column with the “appropriate” fixed vertical shift.

– – – – – –

PS : I forgot that the “tmtglhmam_6.0.txt” UAH file contains monthly [ “GLOBAL”, “NH”, “SH” and ] “TRPC” area averages to three decimal places.

The “uahncdc_*” files have more “zones” (e.g. “USA48”), but the data is only provided to 2dp.

“There is a computer disease that anybody who works with computers knows about. It’s a very serious disease and it interferes completely with the work. The trouble with computers is that you ‘play’ with them.” — Richard P. Feynman.

Looks like I’ll be spending this Sunday “not working” on my computer …

Last edited 6 months ago by Mark BLR
Dave Fair
Reply to  Mark BLR
May 9, 2021 8:42 am

Thanks, again, for your “not working” so hard.

Peter
May 6, 2021 5:39 pm

Can we stop calling ERSST ‘observations’?

ERSST is a reconstruction involving various mathematical processes, interpolations, averages etc, largely based on the actual observations supplied by ICOADS (https://icoads.noaa.gov/). One doesn’t need to look very deep into that to see how variable (both in technoolgy and density) that data actually is, and indeed how actually sparse it is in many areas.

Because it is a reconstruction it necessarily has some assumptions baked in.

Gordon A. Dressler
May 6, 2021 8:34 pm

These two recent WUWT articles document two back-to-back “pauses” in global warming (a step shift between them occurring around CY2014), neither of which were predicted by any of the 68 simulations from the 13 computers models used in CMIP6 (see Figure 1 above):
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/03/rss-shows-no-global-warming-for-17-years-10-months/
and
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/05/03/the-new-pause-lengthens-by-two-months-to-6-years/

And one wonders why CMIP6 did not conduct model comparisons against more accurate and/or difference data sets, such as the ARGO float network for sea-surface—and near sea-surface—temperature trending, and NOAA’s U.S. Climate Reference Network for lower atmospheric air temperature-over-land trending.

Dave Fair
May 9, 2021 6:31 pm

I don’t get it. Schmidt & Company’s model shows a +0.75C anomaly from the average of the 1951 to 1980 period baseline to the average of the 2017 to 2021 period. My understanding is that the total change from the end of the LIA is only about +0.8C. WTF?

Dave Fair
May 9, 2021 6:40 pm

Dr. Spencer points out that the official estimated change in ocean heat content (OHC) is orders of magnitude less than our ability to measure. Do you want to bet your future based on scary stories?

Simon Marsden
May 10, 2021 8:51 am

I am not convinced that long-term climate simulation is possible (as opposed to simulating the weather). The NCAR-based Community Earth System Model (CESM) ran the same simulation 40 times for the period 1920 and 2100, changing the starting temperature by less than one trillionth of a degree each time. The results show staggering variability, to the point where you cannot even tell if winters in North America will get hotter or colder.

40 Earths: NCAR’s Large Ensemble reveals staggering climate variability | NCAR & UCAR News

The problem is the famous Butterfly Effect which seems to me to make the models fairly useless.

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