Lessons In Woke “Science”: Covid-19 And Climate

From The Manhattan Contrarian

Over time, I have had many posts on the scientific method, most recently in January 2021 here. You posit a falsifiable hypothesis. Then you collect and examine the evidence. If the evidence contradicts your hypothesis you must abandon it and move on. Really, that’s the whole thing.

Then there is woke “science,” most visible these days in the arenas of response to the Covid-19 virus and of climate change. Here the principles are a little different. In woke “science” there is no falsifiable hypothesis. In place of that, we have the official orthodox consensus view. The official orthodox consensus view has been arrived at by all the smartest people, because it just seems like it must be right. The official orthodox consensus view must not be contradicted, particularly by the little people like you. Based on the official orthodox consensus view, those in power can take away all your freedom (Covid) and/or transform the entire economy (climate). After all, it’s the “science.”

But what if evidence seems to contradict the official orthodox consensus view? I’m sorry, but as I said the official orthodox consensus view must not be contradicted. Today’s news brings a couple of extreme examples of that, one on the virus front, and the other relating to climate. Both of these are from Europe, so you may not have seen them.

On the virus front, we consider the case of Germany. For some reason, Germany has been relatively lightly hit by the virus, at least so far. According to the latest from Worldometers, Germany has had 940 deaths per million population to date. This compares, for example to 2,593 deaths per million in Czechia (worst of all countries), 1,864 in the UK, and 1,732 in the U.S. But starting in about mid-March, Germany has seen a renewed “surge” of cases. Why? Some might say that the virus is just going to get you sooner or later. But on March 23 German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a new three-week “lockdown” of the strictest variety, which included the forced closing of most stores from April 1 – 5. And with that three-week period about to expire, the website No Tricks Zone (German speakers) reports today that even further extensions are under consideration:

The German government is looking to impose even stricter lockdown measures. Liberty has been suspended indefinitely in Europe.

The problem here is that if the proposition that lockdowns work were a falsifiable hypothesis, it would have been falsified by now. The most striking data come from here in the U.S., where strict lockdown states like New York (2642 deaths per million as of today), New Jersey (2800), Illinois (1878) and Michigan (1759) continue to get shown up by wide open places like Florida (1584) and Texas (1705). Try to find any actual data for the efficacy of lockdowns, and you can’t. That is, except for their efficacy in generating an unemployment rate of 13% in New York City versus 4.8% in Florida.

But Germany, like the blue U.S. states, operates by the alternative principles of woke “science.” After all, data or no data, all the smartest people know that lockdowns must work. No Tricks Zone reports today on a news conference that took place on Friday (April 9) in Germany. An independent journalist named Boris Reitschuster got a chance to pose a question to Oliver Ewald, a spokesman for the German Ministry of Health. Here is the question (translation from NTZ):

Herr Ewald, [a journalist] at the WZ wrote in a report that the German government has no proof of the effectiveness of lockdowns. So my question is: what scientific studies do you have?Thank you.”

And here is the initial response, plus some further back and forth:

Ewald: Herr Reitschuster, you know that as a fundamental rule, we do not assess comments from journalists, and so here I will stick to that.”

Reitschuster: There’s a misunderstanding, Herr Ewald, I only brought up a quote and then followed it up with a stand-alone question, and this question has nothing to do with the quote. I’ll gladly repeat the question once again; what scientific study…”

Ewald: When you read one sentence from this comment here and request an assessment without, so to speak, providing further context or basis, I can’t say anything on that.”

Reitschuster: Completely without the sentence, for the third time, what scientific study does the German government have? Thank you.”

Ewald: I’ve said what I have to say say on that!”

NTZ comments: “We all know there is no study that supports lockdowns, and so spokesman Ewald is clearly trapped.” However, you should expect the lockdown to continue in Germany.

Over to the subject of climate change. As you may have read, last week brought record-breaking cold to much of Europe which, given that we are well into April, caused substantial damage to crops in their early stages of Spring growth. Actually, it’s likely that you didn’t read about that at all. That’s because the U.S. mainstream media mostly only report on record warmth, not record cold. As an example, I can’t find any mention of the subject of Europe’s cold snap in the New York Times (although I do find an article in the Washington Post).

But, particularly given the extensive crop damage, let alone the readership personally experiencing the bitter cold temperatures, the European press can’t avoid reporting on the subject. Doesn’t this extreme cold kind of undermine the official orthodox consensus view that the climate is rapidly getting warmer?

Here is the story from France’s Le Figaro, April 9 (my translation):

A bout of severe frost struck numerous crops this week in France. Temperatures plummeted, in some places, below 0 degrees C (32 F) at a speed never seen since 1947 for the month of April.

Quick, somebody needs to explain how that is consistent with “global warming.” Le Figaro calls in one Thierry Castel, identified as a “climatology researcher.” Here’s his explanation:

This is well linked [to global warming]. The differences in temperatures between the polar zones and the mid-latitudes are decreasing. That process modulates the undulations of the jet stream (the fast winds over the North Atlantic that play a big role in atmospheric circulation). Because of that, we are faced with the descent of cold Arctic air, and the more important northward movement of warm air.

Sure, Thierry. Meanwhile, the UAH guys report another substantial drop in world atmospheric temperature in March 2021. The global temperature anomaly for the month is -0.01 deg C (as against the 30 year average of 1991-2020). That brings us back down to about the same temperature we had back in 1988. Needless to say, Le Figaro was way too polite to confront M. Castel with this information.

Read the full article here.

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Warren Inman
April 13, 2021 6:06 pm

You can’t let the facts get in the way of woke science.

Scissor
Reply to  Warren Inman
April 13, 2021 6:31 pm

It’s existential man, at least that’s what Joey says.

beng135
Reply to  Scissor
April 16, 2021 9:06 am

It’s ah, um, uh, exitial, man, uh, duh — (whispers to aid by side) & where the frack is my, uh, script card to read? Get with it, man. And don’t forget to bring that cute little girl into the back room afterwards.

S.K.
Reply to  Warren Inman
April 13, 2021 9:00 pm

Woke science is not science, it is a dogma/religion claiming to be science.

Xinnie the Pooh
Reply to  S.K.
April 15, 2021 9:56 pm

We used to call it Lysenkoism

M Courtney
Reply to  Warren Inman
April 14, 2021 12:18 am

You mean like, “We all know there is no study that supports lockdowns“.

Here is a fact that proves this article is politicised science. It’s a study that supports lockdowns working.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0

And here’s another, a pre-print but not modelling (having waited for observations):
https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/85703/10/react1_r8_full_preprint_1.1.pdf

Nelson
Reply to  M Courtney
April 14, 2021 1:40 am

I think you should read the articles. The nature article doesn’t say what you think it does.

H. D. Hoese
Reply to  Nelson
April 14, 2021 8:15 am

Yes he should read the Nature article. The question I have been asking is what if there had been no unusual treatments (lockdowns/masks) or even a vaccine?

“Because the heterogeneity of the effectiveness of individual NPIs across countries points to a non-independence among different NPIs, the impact of a specific NPI cannot be evaluated in isolation……However, such radical measures have adverse consequences.” Such I hear from my doctors among others.”

And they point out what seems potentially more worrisome than the current virus. (“We find strong support for the effectiveness of border restrictions. ”)
It is called quarantine.

Reply to  M Courtney
April 14, 2021 2:25 am

I think the issue is not about “studies that support lockdowns”, we are asking for studies that PROVE lockdowns have a beneficial effect on public health and wellness. WELLNESS.
https://www.greenpets.co.za/index.php/en/2-greenpets-natural-happiness/267-holy-communion
And please don’t quote morbidity/ mortality numbers, even the CDC has admitted the numbers are inflated/ conflated/ concocted and stuffed with dead diabetics…
So both your very politicised article are based, not on suspect science, but pure, unadulterated sciencery.

Reply to  paranoid goy
April 14, 2021 6:46 am

The WHO said years ago that lockdowns were not appropriate under ANY condition of disease. It makes too much sense that destroying every aspect of a person’s life with a lockdown—they do get to breath and sleep— is going to beneficial to anyone at all. Having the economy to generate resources rather than a lockdown that negates resources is clearly a better strategy. Nope, the evidence against lockdowns, social distancing, and masking are across the board negative.

Negative except when it’s from the Imperial Col UK, home of the idiot who made egregiously wrong prediction of deaths in the UK and US. The ONLY study saying that masks work is from the CDC who did a crappy study on mannikins—can you say “biased study.”

TonyG
Reply to  Charles Higley
April 14, 2021 10:54 am

The WHO said years ago that lockdowns were not appropriate under ANY condition of disease.

THIS is the biggest problem I have with the Covid response. Decades of established medical procedure and collected knowledge thrown out, because “this time it’s different?”. 60 years of studies on the effectiveness of universal masking (concluding NOT), and suddenly in 2020 all the studies show how great it is? But if you even think of raising any of that information, you’re branded a heretic.

Jeffery P
Reply to  M Courtney
April 14, 2021 11:46 am

If lockdowns work, why do we see no clear evidence when we look at places under lockdown and places that aren’t? Florida is doing as well as New York state. Texas ended all restrictions and has no spike in cases. Sweden never went into lockdown or imposed mask mandates.

PMHinSC
Reply to  M Courtney
April 14, 2021 1:50 pm

My layman’s interperation of the “nature” study reference by M Courtney is hardly an indorsement of lockdowns. Out of 46 NPIs listed, 42 reported an up to -0.35 delta Rt; basically anything you do works. Figure 4a of the study shows “National lockdowns” result in a delta -.03 Rt in the first week and a positive delta Rt after 3 weeks; which I interperate as meaning they don’t do anything statistically significant. 

Blackall
April 13, 2021 6:06 pm

‘Woke’ science is what Jerome Ravetz first coined as Post Normal Science.

Reply to  Blackall
April 13, 2021 9:47 pm

“Go woke, go broke” rolls off the tongue a lot easier than, “Go Post-normal science, go broke.”

Redge
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 13, 2021 11:59 pm

“Go post-normal science, get plebeian compliance”

Russell
Reply to  Blackall
April 14, 2021 1:06 am

What comes after PNS? Methinks PSS = Post Stupid Science.

Abolition Man
Reply to  Russell
April 14, 2021 8:26 am

Dumb-as-a-post Dunce Science= DDS!? Oops, that one’s already taken!
How about Sciency Stuff for Dummies=SSD!?
The possibilities are as vast as Einstein’s measure of human stupidity!

April 13, 2021 6:19 pm

“Listen to the science”, I guess. That’s what the President of the USA said for us to do. Listen to the science.

AWG
Reply to  Chaamjamal
April 13, 2021 7:11 pm

Or the subservient version: “Follow The Science”, because if judging the modern day rainbow colored yard phylacteries of the Woke, science has been reified – “Science is Real”.

Ed Zuiderwijk
Reply to  Chaamjamal
April 14, 2021 1:51 am

Listen to the green perversion of science. That’s what it means. But Joe doesn’t know that because he is scientifically illiterate and therefore can not distinguish between real science (or real scientists) and pseudo claptrap (or charlatans). Sancta Greta is in the same boat.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
April 14, 2021 4:43 am

Joe doesn’t know anything nor does he have any original thoughts or ideas. He is just a puppet figurehead.
Every time you see him in public think “Weekend at Biden’s”.

Barnes Moore
Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
April 14, 2021 4:50 am

Joe is not just scientifically illiterate, he is functionally incapacitated. At some point, he will no longer remember how to read the words put in front of him.

Wayne
Reply to  Barnes Moore
April 14, 2021 6:06 am

Wasn’t Stalin also referred to as “Uncle Joe”. Just wondering,

Neo
Reply to  Wayne
April 14, 2021 8:26 am

But Joe Biden seems to fit better into the Weimar Republic scenario, as President Paul Ludwig Hans Anton von Beneckendorff und von Hindenburg, an aged weak politician. I’ll leave it to you to figure out who fits into the role of Chancellor.

Last edited 5 months ago by Neo
Ryan
April 13, 2021 6:40 pm

They sit there trying to sell this idea that the average temperature going up some microscopic amount is some fatal thing yet I, (we all) live temperatures going up and down from day to night as much as 30°F and nobody dies. Where I live, it has gotten as low as -25°F and 104°F in the summer and nobody dies in this 6 month time of winter to summer “climate change”. I can’t even begin to take any of this climate science seriously.

Lockdowns don’t work. People living carefully and smartly does. I haven’t had Covid yet. Some of my relatives have. All that have had it are still alive so far. My elderly aunt ended up in the hospital. I’m not living in fear in any way. I’m living in disgust. These so called smart people have lost all credibility and woke is a joke.

eyesonu
Reply to  Ryan
April 14, 2021 2:33 am

Ryan,

What you wrote is the ‘killer’ when confronting someone about “global warming”! I have been using the very same argument for years and it will immediately cause anger in one whose belief in CAGW as there is no possible credible response! And smiling or laughing at their anger really sets it off!

My local temp span is -0F to +100F in 6 months (winter to summer) and you can bet on single digit winter and +95F summer temps.

Izaak Walton
April 13, 2021 6:57 pm

There is plenty of evidence that lockdowns work if done right. Look at NZ where the death rate per million people is just over 5. In NZ the government imposed a lockdown the moment there was evidence of community transmission, instituted rapid testing and did not let up until 2 weeks of zero new cases. And since then when there have been new cases of community transmission there is the same immediate rapid response.

Much of the issue is that what is called a lockdown in one place would not be regarded as a lockdown somewhere else. So it becomes very hard to compare like for like. But overall the counties that had harder and earlier lockdowns have performed significantly better than ones that imposed restrictions only after COVID was widespread in the community.

AWG
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 13, 2021 7:14 pm

Enjoy your Prison State. May you live for eternity.

fred250
Reply to  AWG
April 13, 2021 7:41 pm

Izzy-dumb’s mind is LOCKED in a perpetual state of self-imprisonment

Its the only way it can get through the “existential” threats of everyday life.

Simon
Reply to  AWG
April 13, 2021 10:34 pm

Prison state? Huh? It’s quite the opposite. Life is practically back to normal and has been for quite some time.

fred250
Reply to  Simon
April 13, 2021 11:13 pm

But Izzy-dumb and the climate glitterati DESPERATELY want those lockdowns or something similar to continue so as to keep CO2 emissions lower.

Don’t you pay any attention whatsoever to your climate cult priests and priestesses are saying !?

You better, or you will be cancelled/ostrichised…

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2021/03/03/report-world-needs-equivalent-of-pandemic-lockdown-every-two-years-to-meet-paris-carbon-emission-goals/?sh=7c20da376dee

https://www.wbcsd.org/Overview/Panorama/Articles/Avoiding-a-climate-lockdown

Its all about CONTROL…. That is the end game.

Graemethecat
Reply to  Simon
April 13, 2021 11:42 pm

Presumably then, NZ will have to isolate itself from the rest of the World indefinitely to prevent any recurrence.

Mariner
Reply to  Graemethecat
April 14, 2021 12:07 am

Same as Western Australia. We have minimal personal lockdowns, instead we lockdown the whole state.

Peter
Reply to  Graemethecat
April 14, 2021 9:31 am

No! NZ just has to isolate until their population is vaccinated. But they’re not totally isolated, people can enter the general population after completing a quarantine program.

It’s a similar story in Australia. I live in the state of Queensland in Australia. We also locked-down until the virus was eliminated. It took 6 weeks for Queensland (in NZ it took 4 if I remember correctly). Once the virus was eliminated* in the whole of Australia life returned to more or less what is was like before the pandemic. But with the exception that we need government approval to go overseas and those returning from overseas must complete a hotel quarantine program (mandatory two weeks isolation in usually a 4 star hotel room).

*We have had a few outbreaks (less then 10) of the virus since elimination arising from quarantine failures with people entering from overseas. In my home state there has been two such outbreaks- which were both dealt with by a 3 day lock-down and extensive contact tracing. The other states have similarly handled their outbreaks. Australia currently has no community cases.

ross
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 13, 2021 7:16 pm

NZ is a small island nation thats relatively isolated so like other similar islands its relatively easy to have effective lockdown unlike larger countries with multiple borders. Each country is unique.

Izaak Walton
Reply to  ross
April 13, 2021 8:37 pm

So what you are saying is that “effective lockdowns” work but ineffective ones don’t. NZ has had a lot of advantages when it comes to COVID but it still shows that lockdowns work.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 13, 2021 10:58 pm

You really are quite dense, Izzy. It’s little wonder why you have so much difficulty discussing sciency stuff here. If you can’t understand why NZ is not a good model to assess the efficacy of social distancing, there’s really no hope for you.

fred250
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 13, 2021 11:15 pm

WRONG as always, Izzy-the-dumbest..

Totally lacking in basic comprehension and understanding. !

Graemethecat
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 13, 2021 11:44 pm

Explain the relative mortality rates of Texas and Florida versus New York and New Jersey.

TonyG
Reply to  Graemethecat
April 14, 2021 10:58 am

Explain the relative mortality rates of Texas and Florida versus New York and New Jersey.

The “explanation” I’ve seen is that Texas and Florida are lying. So, basically flat-out dismissal of the discrepancy.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  TonyG
April 14, 2021 2:33 pm

Who thinks they are lying?

Climate believer
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 14, 2021 1:05 am

You have a very myopic view of the world Mr Walton.

It’s like when Socialism doesn’t work, the problem isn’t Socialism, it’s that it wasn’t done right.

Lockdowns don’t work, the problem isn’t lockdowns, it’s that they weren’t done right.

Reducing down the many, many factors that could potentially change the outcome of a pandemic in diverse regions and cultures of the world, to one rather weak strategy that has already been condemned by the WHO, and actually increases other medical and societal problems, is complete puerile thinking.

97% of people recover, I realise it is not just a nasty flu for some, but neither is it Ebola.

My own personal viewpoint is that the only time a draconian measure such as lockdowns should be used is right at the beginning, (and for the shortest period possible), to allow authorities time to set up effective public health systems. Once that is accomplished, all lockdowns should be lifted and other precautionary rules can be implemented.

Trying to Play Nice
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 14, 2021 6:30 am

Closing the borders is not the same as a lockdown. A lockdown is when the inhabitants are not allowed to go about their daily business. Of course, sealing off the borders will keep the virus out, but only until NZ decides to join the rest of the world again. You really should try to understand the meaning of words and use logic before you make such stupid statements.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 13, 2021 7:59 pm

NZ is a remote island(s). When COVID-19 struck, there was a hard border shutdown. Returning citizens were forced in to quarantine for 14 days. That is what stopped the spread, not lock downs. Once international borders are open again, you will see a spike in cases.

Izaak Walton
Reply to  Patrick MJD
April 13, 2021 8:40 pm

Patrick,
That is only part of the reason. There was an immediate lockdown in NZ when the first evidence of community transmission appeared. Otherwise shutting the border would not have stopped anything since cases could still spread in NZ. The border shutdown since then has kept COVID out.

shortie of greenbank
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 14, 2021 12:40 am

The lockdown itself does not stop the spread. It’s only use it in track ‘n’ trace measures. We saw in the state of Victoria draconian lockdowns (on some at least the police selectively enforced it on some people) but due to incompetent track and trace the virus continued to spread whereas whenever an outbreak occured in NSW or QLD, sure lockdowns were employed but once track and trace is complete they actually do open up. This is a means of days not weeks or months.

We even have had spread confirmed from vaccinated quarantine staff.

The unfortunate effect of these is that the government being able to track your every move will now be pushed harder due to in part the containment by using effective track and tracing measures. It also helps that these islands don’t have massive illegal immigrant issues etc.

Simon
Reply to  Patrick MJD
April 13, 2021 10:37 pm

Once international borders are open again, you will see a spike in cases.”
Once the borders open most kiwis will have had their vaccination so will be fine.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Simon
April 13, 2021 11:00 pm

You’re assuming that any of the “vaccinations” are gong to be effective. No one knows that.

Simon
Reply to  Rory Forbes
April 13, 2021 11:18 pm

You’re assuming that any of the “vaccinations” are gong to be effective. No one knows that.”
What? Are you not reading how good they are?

Reply to  Simon
April 14, 2021 1:44 am

It shows up, that even with two shots you may die from COV-19

Leo Smith
Reply to  Krishna Gans
April 14, 2021 2:19 am

Everybody who died yesterday died after drinking water. THAT is a scientific FACT. Why aren’t we banning water?
</sarc>

Neo
Reply to  Leo Smith
April 14, 2021 8:38 am

I had heard that it was tomatoes.

“Everybody who eats tomatoes will die”

Ed Zuiderwijk
Reply to  Krishna Gans
April 14, 2021 5:41 am

Evidence?

Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
April 14, 2021 5:53 am

Seven Corona deaths despite double vaccination
They were vaccinated twice and still died of Corona: Seven people have met this fate in MV since the beginning of the year.
Neubrandenburg –
149 cases of Covid-19 infection despite being vaccinated twice have been reported in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern so far (figures apply to vaccinated people whose second vaccination took place at least 14 days ago). Now the Nordkurier has learned from official sources: Seven affected persons have even died from the infection.
Of the 149 Covid cases that occurred despite double vaccination, 74 people had mild courses with undramatic symptoms of illness such as sore throat and rhinitis (0.11 percent of twice-vaccinated people), according to Lagus.

Twenty-two of 149 vaccinated individuals experienced severe courses and required hospitalization for Corona infection (0.03 percent of twice-vaccinated individuals).

Twice-vaccinated individuals who required hospitalization suffered from shortness of breath and “shortness of breath along with cough,” among other symptoms, according to Lagus. Pneumonia, one of the feared complications of covid infection, also occurred.

Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
German source

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Krishna Gans
April 14, 2021 3:24 pm

It shows a picture of the Pfizer vaccine in a bottle, but does not actually say what vaccine they are talking about.
They also never say if perhaps some of these people already had the virus when vaccinated, or what amount of time had elapsed after vaccination until becoming infected.
It is well known that no vaccines provide immediate protection, as it takes time for the immune system to create enough antibodies to be protective.
Also, if someone has a compromised immune system, like if they are on chemo or any of over a dozen other reasons, they have no ability to make protective antibodies.
In fact, the “read more” article says this:
“Alle Personen waren zwischen 78 und 93 Jahre alt und wohnten allesamt in Alten- und Pflegeheimen.”

(translation:All persons were between 78 and 93 years old and all lived in old people’s and nursing homes)

Why does the article you linked to omit this obviously highly salient fact?
Everyone knows that nursing home patients have a high percentage of people with cancers and COPD and all sorts of other end-of-life stage ailments. That s why they are in them, in many of not most cases!

I also find this statement quite odd:
“74 had mild histories with dramatic symptoms such as sore throatanda (sic) and colds (0.11 percent of twice vaccinated people)…”

Funny how vaccine opponents can simultaneously think a sore throat or cold is “dramatic symptoms”, while also claiming that no one need get vaccinated because a disease that causes a high rate of viral pneumonia is nothing to worry about so why get vaccinated and reduce the risk of getting by a factor of 10,000!

On top of that, the article has apparently been badly proof read and edited, as glaring math errors exist that are unclear, without going back and reading the whole thing over, what was meant to be said…like here:
“22 out of 149 vaccinated people experienced a severe course and had to be treated in hospital for corona infection (0.03 percent of twice vaccinated persons)…”

Three one hundredths of one percent is three people out of ten thousand. They do not say what “severe” means, but in the clinical trials such terms were predefined, so no one can just call a case severe if if they want but not if they do not. Without defining the term, no one can know if it is the same definition of severe used in the clinical trial data.
We might have a clue from the naming of a sore throat a “dramatic” symptom. A sore throat, self reported, can mean just about anything, but it does not sound dramatic to me.
5 to10% chance of viral pneumonia does though.

So one has to wonder, why should anyone give such a terribly written and poorly sourced article, with no credibility (even if only from the standpoint of the incompleteness of the info given), glaring inaccuracies, and missing info, than the intricately documented clinical trials data which involved a far larger number of people?

Old people, very old, often have no ability for antibody production.
In fact, Moderna specifically tested on an older population to find out if it works well on older people, since it has been known for centuries that vaccines can fail in such people.
But we do not actually know from these articles what vaccines they got, and if maybe they were mass vaccinated in old folks homes and were already infected.

Now that millions of people have been vaccinated, and the some 20,000 ones that were vaccinated as part of the Moderna phase 3 clinical trial were dosed over 6 months ago, there is a lot more info available.

Here on a science site, we have people loudly proclaiming that the vaccine is useless, because one or a few in a million might die, and some of them might even die of the vaccine, while less than one in a hundred on most age groups die of COVID!
Now, we know math ability is not screened for in online commenters…anyone can say anything, even the math illiterati.
The relative risk is reduced by several orders of magnitude with the vaccine, enough to stamp out the ability for the virus to spread, and those who do get sick anyway have a vanishingly small chance of getting a severe case, which I assert is the only cases anyone really needs to be concerned about.
Another thing the vaccine opponents love to pretend does not happen, is that the deaths are a small number compared to those who get gravely ill and survive, but with anything from long term to permanent and life shortening injuries and bodily damage.
In some ways and for some people, having one’s body damaged badly can be worse than dying, as the dead are no longer suffering.

Antivaxxers, like warmistas, seem to have perfected the art of using bad arguments, outright lies, and made up crappola opinions, to prey on the insecurities of the poorly informed.
Only in this case, every person you convince to not protect themselves is a potential death that you have directly had a hand in causing.

Nice work, killer.

Last edited 5 months ago by Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
April 15, 2021 4:40 am

“Antivaxxers, like warmistas, seem to have perfected the art of using bad arguments, outright lies, and made up crappola opinions, to prey on the insecurities of the poorly informed.”

You remember HCQ+AZ+ZN and your way to discuss ?
All said, thx for nothing

Btw, who tells you, I’m an antivaxxer ?

Last edited 5 months ago by Krishna Gans
Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Krishna Gans
April 14, 2021 3:59 pm

“Deceased between 78 and 93 years old”According to the Robert Koch Institute, these individual cases exist in various federal states,” says Anja Neutzling of the State Office for Health and Social Affairs (Lagus). “In MV, seven such deaths have been reported to the Lagus so far. All persons were between 78 and 93 years old and all lived in old people’s and nursing homes.”
Neutzling emphasizes that all the deceased had severe chronic pre-existing conditions. And it calculates: Seven deaths – that is 0.01 percent of all people vaccinated twice in MV so far. (My bold-NLM)
22 vaccinated people experienced severe corona trajectoriesOf the 149 Covid cases that occurred despite double vaccination, 74 had mild histories with dramatic symptoms such as sore throatanda and colds (0.11 percent of twice vaccinated people), according to Lagus.
22 out of 149 vaccinated people experienced a severe course and had to be treated in hospital for corona infection (0.03 percent of twice vaccinated persons).
According to Lagus, double vaccinated people who needed hospital treatment suffered from shortness of breath and “shortness of breath along with coughing.” Pneumonia, one of the dreaded complications of Covid infection, also occurred.””

So, all were very old, in nursing homes and had severe chronic preexisting conditions, and the number of them was one in 10,000.
Again, vaccines are know to not work in people who have no immune system, and are just about always less effective, and sometimes completely ineffective, in the very old.
If these were people with cancer on chemotherapy who were also very old and about to die anyway, well…
So it sounds like no surprise at all when more details emerge.
But we could still know more, such as if any of them were already infected, or if it is known one way or the other if they were, or if not, did any get infected during the period that it is well known is required for the immunity to build up, even in young and strong and healthy people?

Many people have no immune system, and over 1 in 100 people are less than a year away from death in any large cross section of a population. That number is far higher than one in a hundred for old people with severe chronic conditions and living in nursing homes. The average life expectancy in the US is about 78-79 years old, so these were all people who were at or near the point that no one can be surprised if they die…even if they are not obviously sick.
The US social security administration gives data of the stats for the odds of dying at every particular age.
Someone at the age of 78 has an over 1 in 10 chance of dying within a year, overall. That includes the healthy as well as the ill.
For everyone who reaches age 92, over 1/3 will die in less than a year.
It hardly needs to be said, but stats for people who are really old and gravely ill, cannot be applied as a broad measure of what a health, or reasonably healthy, young or middle aged person can expect.

In fact no one thinks that zero severe cases in the initial data from the vaccine trials means that when millions of people get vaccinated, more info will not emerge.

If one is not trying to see bad news, this is excellent news.
No one who was not very old and very sick wound up with severe covid, and very few who were old and sick died, even if they got it anyway.
In MV: Sieben Corona-Tote trotz zweifacher Impfung | Nordkurier.de

(internet explorer includes an automatic translator built in.)

Last edited 5 months ago by Nicholas McGinley
Neo
Reply to  Simon
April 14, 2021 8:37 am

Not sure what good a “vaccine passport” will be when we don’t know how good the vaccines are.

Simon
Reply to  Rory Forbes
April 13, 2021 11:41 pm
Simon
Reply to  Rory Forbes
April 13, 2021 11:43 pm
very old white guy
Reply to  Rory Forbes
April 14, 2021 5:14 am

There are no vaccines. There is of gene therapy in the guise of a vaccine.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  very old white guy
April 14, 2021 4:10 pm

Wrong.

Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
April 16, 2021 5:02 am

To use Adeno vectors is usual practice in gen theraphy !

Last edited 5 months ago by Krishna Gans
Neo
Reply to  Rory Forbes
April 14, 2021 8:33 am

We have had the vaccines for just over 6 months now and our “woke” intelligentsia is barking that they are good for at least 6 months.

Thinking any 2 year old could understand.
Why do we need anybody other than this 2 year old ?

Makes you wonder why we need climate scientists when “the science is settled”.

Last edited 5 months ago by Neo
Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Neo
April 14, 2021 4:24 pm

What is actually being said is subtly different from what you just said.
What has been shown is that there is now proof from actual testing that a protective level of antibodies exist at a sufficient blood titer to be protective for at least six months.
But other forms of immunity, like memory cells and such, cannot even be tested for.
Many people will be protected for life by any vaccination or exposure and subsequent recovery. Even ones that “require” a periodic booster, like tetanus.
Because no one knows who is and who may not have enough protection to be immune, so the better safe than sorry approach is applied.
In the case of tetanus, what is known is simply that there have been recorded cases of an inoculated person getting the disease, but that in these cases, it is known the inoculation was many years prior. Tetanus boosters do not only contain vaccine (it is a type called a toxoid vaccine…yes there are different kinds of things that are properly called vaccines!), but may also contain protective immunoglobulins.
In the 1940s, before the vaccine, there were about 550 cases of tetanus per year in the United States, which has decreased to about 30 cases per year in the 2000s.[3] Nearly all cases are among those who have never received a vaccine, or adults who have not stayed up to date on their 10-year booster shots.”

I have already seen people reinterpret this to mean that the vaccine only lasts six months.

There are people who are going out of there way to only report what is known and proven, and others who are mixing up what is known and proven with erroneous interpretations of what this implies.

These same people do not include any such interpretation when they say other things.
Like talking about a less than one in a million incidence of a blood clotting disorder (it is actually, if I got it right, a condition that prevents new platelets from being made, and so prevents blood from clotting, in this latest case with the J & J vaccine), but not mentioning that this info is useless unless one can say that a one in a million chance of getting this condition is a unusually high rate.
Close to one million people in the US have some sort of blood clot every year.
One in a thousand women who take a certain birth control pill will develop blood clots (my sister almost died of something like this many years ago), and yet lots of women they take them anyway.

All medicines and medical care carry some risk of death or injury.
ALL of them.
The question is always what is the relative risk.

The general public may be able to get away with being blissfully unaware of such facts, but people who wish to be knowledgeable and scientific should not be ignorant of such basics.

Nothing works for everyone who takes it, and for any substance that exists, there are some amount of people that are harmed by it.
There are dozens of well known conditions in which a person will be killed or harmed permanently by substances that everyone else calls food.

Tetanus toxoid containing vaccines (DTaP, DTP, Tdap, Td, DT) may cause brachial neuritis at a rate of one out of every 100,000 to 200,000 doses.”

Last edited 5 months ago by Nicholas McGinley
DonM
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
April 15, 2021 11:45 am

“All medicines and medical care carry some risk of death or injury.
ALL of them.
The question is always what is the relative risk.”

WE DON’T KNOW THE RISK, RELATIVE OR OTHERWISE.

Pretending that we do, while watching our stock portfolio and applauding J&J vaccine demise would be a pretty scummy thing to do.

Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
April 15, 2021 3:03 pm

I give you a hint in concern of vector based vaccines, s.th. I found because of my curiosity: what deseases are based on Adeno virus.

Read that:

and that:

Last edited 5 months ago by Krishna Gans
fred250
Reply to  Simon
April 13, 2021 11:17 pm

ROFLMAO,

There’s that simon simplistic far-left non-thinking GULLIBILITY again. !

fred250
Reply to  Simon
April 14, 2021 12:05 am

Just to show everyone just how DELUSIONAL simple simon is.

.. here are vaccination stats for NZ as of 12th April

comment image

Neo
Reply to  fred250
April 14, 2021 8:41 am

Even California is doing better than that

Graemethecat
Reply to  fred250
April 14, 2021 11:35 pm

At that rate, NZ is going to be cut off from the rest of the World for years.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Simon
April 14, 2021 4:57 pm

Are 100% of New Zealanders going to get a vaccination when it becomes available to them?

R_G
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 13, 2021 8:00 pm

It was due to good contact tracing, and very little to do with lockdowns. Here in NSW we had few localized lockdowns but community spread of covid-19 was contained mostly by the excellent tracing contacts.

Abolition Man
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 13, 2021 8:24 pm

Izaak,
Please stop lying to us and yourself! Even the WHO has admitted that lockdowns are worse than the Fauxi ChiCom virus due to increased mortality from economic ruin and missed medical treatments and diagnoses! Why are you trying to kill so many people; especially the poor, and women and children? There are about two dozen studies of the harmful effects from the lockdowns; perhaps you should do a little study before you make any more ignorant statements that have no basis in the SCIENCE!
I would also ask you to look at the growing number of studies that show that therapeutics like ivermectin and HCQ are very effective for treating this virus! There was NEVER any reason to rush the vaccines to market except for the large profits being made! Tens, if not hundreds of thousands of people died unnecessarily because our medical system got politicized by some more interested in POWER than healing! Are you to be counted among those that continence mass murder for political gain?
Like the global warming scam, the Fauxi virus is being used to scare and frighten the ignorant and ill-informed to accept further erosion of rights and liberties, while the ruling elites amass dictatorial powers that may NEVER be relinquished! If you think that that is acceptable you are more than just an accessory to murder; that would make you a Fascist by definition!

Simon
Reply to  Abolition Man
April 14, 2021 12:13 am

Even the WHO has admitted that lockdowns are worse than the Fauxi ChiCom virus due to increased mortality from economic ruin and missed medical treatments and diagnoses!” Really? When did they say that? Oh that’s right, they didn’t, you made it up. And you accuse Izaak of lying.

“I would also ask you to look at the growing number of studies that show that therapeutics like ivermectin and HCQ are very effective for treating this virus! “
Umm no. HCQ is are virtually useless. Long been shown to be of no use whats so ever.

“There was NEVER any reason to rush the vaccines to market except for the large profits being made”
They are hugely effective. Do some reading.

“Like the global warming scam, the Fauxi virus is being used to scare and frighten the ignorant and ill-informed to accept further erosion of rights and liberties”
Is that why you are so worried?

Abolition Man
Reply to  Simon
April 14, 2021 8:41 am

Simplest Simon,
It took me all of about ten seconds to find the quote from WHO envoy, Dr. Arburro, who said that lockdowns hurt the poor by making them even MORE impoverished and hurt many poor nations that rely on tourism for keeping their economies afloat! He stated that they should only be used as a last resort, which is really odd because no serious study shows them to work!

Incidentally, I really like the picture of you and Izaak at the beginning of the article, but was wondering are you the one on the left or in the middle? If you’re the one in the middle; nice suit!

Simon
Reply to  Abolition Man
April 14, 2021 1:09 am

Tens, if not hundreds of thousands of people died unnecessarily because our medical system got politicized by some more interested in POWER than healing! “

Sadly the real risk is that many will die because they believe people like you, who spread misinformation about the vaccines, which are incredibly safe and highly effective. Well over 100 million doses given in the US and not a single death.

Wayne
Reply to  Simon
April 14, 2021 6:12 am

YET! An experimental vaccine that messes with genetical material is a ticking time bomb.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Wayne
April 14, 2021 5:10 pm

Wrong.
It has no effect on a person’s genetic material.
(I am speaking here of the two that are currently in use in the US)
MRNA never even enters the nucleus of a cell.
It is quickly degraded, and no longer is present in the body within a short time.
What it does do is make the body make antibodies against the spike protein.
The virus does the same thing.
Would you prefer a vaccine that contains inactivate or weakened virus, or pieces of actual virus?
Every day you get stuff in your body that causes an immune response.

How fragile do you think we are?

Abolition Man
Reply to  Simon
April 14, 2021 7:02 am

Not just simple Simon; you have now moved into the very stupid Simon realm! EVERY statement that I made that you tried pathetically to deny came from actual quotes and real scientific papers!
There are around thirty scientific papers that show ivermectin (90%+) and HCQ (75%+) are highly effective at reducing fatalities! The supposed papers that proved ineficacy were either withdrawn or could be disproven by an eight-year old as being improperly administered! But that would be far beyond your infantile reasoning!
Idiots like you and Isaac are sickening! Coming out in favor of MASS murder and SLAVERY makes you more than a mere accomplice; it makes you complicit! How does it feel? Does it make your mom proud?

Simon
Reply to  Abolition Man
April 14, 2021 12:14 pm

There are around thirty scientific papers that show ivermectin (90%+) and HCQ (75%+) are highly effective at reducing fatalities! The supposed papers that proved ineficacy were either withdrawn or could be disproven by an eight-year old as being improperly administered! But that would be far beyond your infantile reasoning!”

Bollocks. Lets see one paper that has been peer reviewed that says HCQ works against covid. All of the thorough studies show is had almost no effect which is why they dropped it. Now Mr “Honesty” let’s see your quote from the WHO and I bet you any money you like it does not say lockdowns do not work. And I bet it doesn’t say they “lead to increased mortality from economic ruin.” Your implication being that lockdowns kill more than they save. Seriously crazy some people are at times like these, bordering on evil spreading lies and nonsense.

Abolition Man
Reply to  Simon
April 14, 2021 4:43 pm

Simplest of Simons,
Do I have to do your internet searches for you, too! Are you admitting that you are actually that stupid!? I was able to find the quote from the WHO envoy in all of about ten seconds; is that beyond your intelligence or your attention span?
Finding the scientific papers will take a little longer because your Fascist lords and masters have tried to completely suppress them and ban them from the nets! But you know that, don’t you!? I would spend the time looking for you but I don’t think you have the courage to read them anyways; think how much opprobrium would be heaped on your poor little head if you were caught reading forbidden information! Besides, I need to change my guitar strings, so I’m rather indisposed for the day!

Simon
Reply to  Abolition Man
April 14, 2021 4:58 pm

So no quote. Thought not. I don’t know how or why you think it is ok to peddle such bs but seems you can sleep doing it. Trash.

Abolition Man
Reply to  Simon
April 14, 2021 5:23 pm

Simon of little brainpower,
I got bored of sitting around thinking about new ideas for silhouette targets so I went online and looked for studies about the use of ivermectin and HCQ for the treatment of the Fauxi ChiCom virus. In about ten minutes I was able to determine that I had been sadly mistaken! There aren’t thirty studies of therapeutics to be cited, now there are about ONE HUDRED and FIFTY!
You really must be a world-class moron if you are unable to find the data I am speaking about, or maybe your mommy puts filters on your computer to prevent you from reading anything that might bruise your feeble brain!
In a meta-analysis of HCQ that I was reading they came up with an estimate of ~750,000 excess fatalities due to the
suppression of this inexpensive drug by political entities like the CDC and NIH, and that does take into consideration the even more effective therapeutic; ivermectin! So we are talking about excess deaths in the MILLIONS and you seem to be too stupid to figure out who is actually full of BS! Incidentally, I do sleep pretty well at night because I spend many hours trying to ferret out the truth, instead of believing what anyone tells me! You should try it sometime so you don’t always sound like a complete idiot! Oh, and when I have have trouble sleeping I usually read a good book. You could try that and maybe learn something for a change!

Simon
Reply to  Abolition Man
April 14, 2021 5:39 pm

So no reference for that mindless made up number of 750,000. And you say you are after the truth. Haha. What a joke. If HCQ was any good it would have been used on Trump when he got sick… but they didn’t because they didn’t want to be accused of witch craft. Let’s not waste any more time on your mumbo jumbo. Believe what you want, but if you are going to spread lies that could cost lives, I’ll call you on it.

Abolition Man
Reply to  Simon
April 14, 2021 6:24 pm

Simon,
Seriously, you need to get a medical check up! I don’t know if you are following a vegan or vegetarian diet, or are just doing too many drugs; but, dude, you are in need of some serious help! Please reach out to some qualified professionals soon!

Please read this part slowly so you will be able to comprehend it fully! The data on HCQ and Covid is best located by keying “Covid HCQ studies” into your computer. I found the meta analysis the most interesting but there are 233 studies listed so you have your pick! You can even find some studies that used the HCQ improperly, so they will get the poor results you are hoping for!

To find studies on ivermectin try “ivermectin studies” instead! I would suggest using duck duck go or something besides google because I don’t think they want this data to get wide dissemination. The meta analysis of the 55 ivermectin studies shows an improvement of ~84% with early use; prophylactic use saw an 85% improvement!
Let me know if you need any more help finding your way around. Oh look, the short bus is here to take you home!!

Reply to  Simon
April 15, 2021 4:46 am

Ask Turkey – they used it from the first day – and compare Turkey with f.e. Germany.

Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 13, 2021 9:50 pm

Isolating an island nation from foreign travelers is not a lockdown as pertains to the population.

Graemethecat
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 13, 2021 11:46 pm

Bingo! Izaak Walton and Simon are lying, as usual.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Graemethecat
April 14, 2021 7:16 am

At which they both are so adept (even if the lies are transparent).

Simon
Reply to  Graemethecat
April 14, 2021 12:20 pm

Excuse me? NZ locked down in the early phases on the virus in exactly the way the US didn’t, which is why we knock it (the virus) on the head early and were able to get back to (almost normal life) sooner than many. We didn’t just shut our borders. Who is lying here?

Graemethecat
Reply to  Simon
April 14, 2021 1:17 pm

I find it strange that President Trump was criticised as r@cist by people like you when he tried to close the US borders at the outset of the pandemic, yet you are now arguing for just such a policy.

Simon
Reply to  Graemethecat
April 14, 2021 1:32 pm

Firstly I support the closer of borders. It is literally the one thing he got right although he botched that to some degree by not having a quality testing system in place for those returning, so they infected a huge number.

ross
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 14, 2021 1:23 am

Part of NZs lockdown was closing the borders

mikebartnz
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 13, 2021 10:16 pm

In NZ we have had 26 Covid deaths. We would need another 739 to match the 2015 flu/pneumonia deaths.
We are now going into winter which will likely cause a bit of chaos.
I am over 65 and couldn’t give a flying £uck about Covid. I have seen too many people doing absolutely stupid things because of their fear of it.

By the way I wish the “go to the top ” button could be moved elsewhere as I am often hitting it accidentally.

Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 14, 2021 12:21 am

You are wrong – follow the science !
Aerosol research just proved, I linked yesterday, that sperading COV-19 happens indoors, not outdoors, in so far, lockdowns are meaningless, in contrast, people meat more unseen indoors as outdoor meetings are better to observe.
They just wrote an open letter to Merkel to stop the outdoor restrictions.

Last edited 5 months ago by Krishna Gans
Izaak Walton
Reply to  Krishna Gans
April 14, 2021 1:26 am

Krishna,
I am not sure what you mean by lockdown but in NZ the lockdown meant that people were not allowed out of their homes except for excerise and essential activities (basically food shopping). So COVID would not spread except within households and when one member of a household was infected they were moved to quarantine facilities. The result was that after just over a month there were no cases and the country could open up again.

This idea of a short but very strict lockdown worked and certainly works a lot better
than the half-assed lockdown that the UK has tried.

Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 14, 2021 1:49 am

The curfews also promise more than they can deliver, in the view of the researchers. “They do not prevent clandestine meetings indoors, but merely increase the motivation to evade government orders even more,” they write. “Wearing a mask in the pedestrian zone and then having a coffee table in your own living room without a mask is not what we as experts understand by infection prevention.” With exit restrictions, politicians want to prevent people from meeting at all temporarily.
German source

What are alternatives to strict lockdowns?
Experts on aerosols – the air mixtures in which the corona virus also hovers – address politicians with clear words: 
“If you meet for coffee in the pedestrian zone, you don’t have to invite anyone into your living room”

Aerosol researchers: Corona contagions almost only indoors

Last edited 5 months ago by Krishna Gans
Leo Smith
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 14, 2021 2:28 am

that was exactly the same lockdown that the UK parctised.

Old Cocky
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 14, 2021 1:43 am

“Lockdown” seems to be one of those nebulous marketing terms so beloved of politicians.

Conceptually, it’s a variation on isolation and quarantine, which have been the mainstays of defence against infectious diseases for centuries.

Border restrictions to reduce the numbers coming in, allied with secondary quarantine of the incoming passengers have proven largely effective in NZ and Australia (including state border restrictions”.

Longer term, vaccination is a more recent defence against infectious diseases, and there are a number of vaccines of varying efficacy and risk now available.
Interestingly, NZ and Australian vaccination programs are slow getting started, probably as a combination of caution due to the lack of local cases and the effective border restrictions, and lack of supply.
In a country with effectively no cases, the blood clotting risk posed by the Astra Zeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are a concern – where infection rates are high, the benefits outweigh the risks by orders of magnitude.

Reply to  Old Cocky
April 14, 2021 3:17 am

Masks outside are crazy, to ask for is much worse, in in certain cities with high people traffic it’s obligated in Germany.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Old Cocky
April 14, 2021 5:46 pm

It will take a statistical analysis to determine if the vaccine is correlated with an increased risk of the condition in question.
When the sample size is seven million people, it proves nothing by itself to find 6 people with a rare condition.
Diseases are considered by some to be rather “rare” that occur in 1 in 200 people in the population.
The CDC defines a rare condition to be one that occurs in 200,000 or fewer people in the US, which translates to about one in every 1600 people.
That is around 625 out of every million.
This has happened to less than one in a million who got that vaccine, and we do not know if they were maybe predisposed to begin with, or how many get that condition every year to begin with.
There would be no medicines if one in a million people having a bad reaction meant it had to be banned.

Even if these six people would not have got that ailment if they had not gotten this vaccine, we would still need to know if it was random, or if they are genetically predisposed to getting it. Only if it is somehow random would the average person have to worry. If it is not random, can it be tested for ahead of time?
Probably not.
I have no idea why a vaccine that is so much less effective than the two already granted an EUA, was even approved for an EUA.
If J & J is only 75% (actual numbers are 72% in the US, 64% in South Africa, 61% in Latin America)effective, and seven million people got it, them 1.75 million of them are still vulnerable.
If almost everyone will eventually get exposed, and one in a thousand of them die, then that means that 1750 people out of that seven million will die despite being vaccinated. 250 out of every million.

Let’s use the better ones, is my view.
We will have more of them soon…there are 83 vaccines currently in various stages of human clinical trials, many of them at phase three, and some of them shown in early trials to be highly effective.
Examples:
“On March 11, Novavax reported that their United Kingdom trial determined an efficacy rate of 96 percent against the original coronavirus.”

CureVac in Germany is expected to release phase 3 data this month or early next month, from a trial that enrolled over 36,000 volunteers.

Also:
“In March, Moderna began a Phase 1 trial of a vaccine made specifically for the B.1.351 variant and a Phase 1 trial of a new, refrigerator-stable vaccine.

michel
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 14, 2021 11:20 am

I think the evidence is that the two lockdowns have worked in the UK. Twice. The latest one took effect before the vaccination program had a chance to kick in. They have been implemented in different seasons with exactly the same results, cases fell dramatically.

You can argue about whether this was worth the cost. I think it was, because they were on the point of running out of hospital beds in both cases, and the collateral damage of reducing treatment of urgent non-Covid conditions to deal with urgent Covid cases had a very high cost as well.

But whether or not it was worth the cost, i cannot see how anyone can look at the UK numbers and argue there is no evidence that lockdowns reduce infections. They obviously did. But don’t believe me, look and see for yourself.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Abolition Man
Reply to  michel
April 14, 2021 12:45 pm

michel,
With all due respect, you need to look at Hope-Simpson’s studies on respiratory virus patterns in different regions of the world! The Fauxi virus comes and goes seasonally, just like most corona viruses! The lockdowns have nothing to do with falling fatality rates; in England the rates were already falling from the seasonal change before the lockdowns were instituted!
In northern temperate regions this virus will recur in winter, when mucous membranes are irritated by lack of humidity, causing people to touch their faces more and spread the virus from their hands. The virus will become less and less prevalent as community immunity is reach; something the lockdowns and mask mandates do NOTHING to help!! If you follow the science, not the media propaganda, you will gain a better understanding!

Michel
Reply to  Abolition Man
April 14, 2021 1:46 pm

If you look at the data on the site, look at the detail, you will see that the first peak happened in April, and the fall in cases happened in May-June. So although this coincided with lockdown, your point would be plausible about this one.

But then look at the second peak. This one happened rose through December and hit a peak on about Jan 1, after which it started to decline. This was not a seasonal decline in respiratory infections. It was at the wrong time of year.

The question to ask is this. You are the Health Minister, and its mid-December. You look at the hospital admissions numbers in the link I cited. You see that if this carries on you run out of beds sometime in January.

Are you ready to take the chance?

They were not, and I think events proved them right. I cannot see any other reason for the decline in cases than the second lockdown.

You want more evidence, look at France. They did not lockdown. Same seasonal factors. They have not had the same decline.

Ruleo
Reply to  Michel
April 14, 2021 3:09 pm

Government website confirming its draconian goverment rules are effective.

Too cute.

michel
Reply to  Ruleo
April 15, 2021 12:10 am

Are you saying that the numbers are not correct? You need to get specific if so. Do you doubt the count of all infections, hospitalizations, deaths? Or do you think that only some of them are faked? If any of these, what do you think the real numbers are, and why?

I think there’s no reason to believe the numbers are not accurate, but more important, whether they are absolutely correct or not, they are comparable over time. So you can argue is the total of deaths correct and really attributable to Covid. But there is no argument to be made that the measure has been the same throughout, and so the curve and trend and comparisons are correct.

Or, if there is an argument to the contrary, you need to make it. Sneering is not argument.

michel
Reply to  Abolition Man
April 15, 2021 12:06 am

There is some support for your argument, and against my own, today in the Telegraph. For most people this will be behind a paywall…

There’s a study comparing the outcomes for the old vaccinated, compared to the old unvaccinated. Large numbers, 100-200,000. And the gap is very substantial.

So the argument is that the explanation of the fall in the Spring last year was the change in season, and the explanation of the fall in January onwards this year is vaccination.

I am not sure. I am certain that vaccination is indeed having a very significant effect – that after all is why they are rolling it out at such a pace. And its contribution to reducing hospitalizations must be very great. There is nothing else that could be breaking the link between cases and hospitalizations.

I am not however persuaded that there was enough vaccination in time to have produced the fall in cases that immediately followed the lockdown just after Christmas. Remember, this is mainly the AZ vaccine, and it takes three weeks for substantial immunity to develop. And it took them quite a while to scale up vaccinations. I doubt there were enough given early enough to account for the decline in infections. And it certainly was not the arrival of spring! Spring has only just started to arrive in the South of the UK, and the decline in cases has been well under way since January.

Pat Frank
April 13, 2021 6:59 pm

In woke “science” there is no falsifiable hypothesis. In place of that, we have the official orthodox consensus view.

These areas of science have succumbed to sociology and culture studies. They not only include Covid and climate change, but extend to gender dysphoria, critical race theory, white supremacy, intersectionality, implicit bias, systemic racism, efficacy of diversity/equity/inclusion (DEI; right-think/quota/prejudice), the root cause of crime, and on and on.

These areas make claims that political extremism and violent riots have leveraged to the status of knowledge. Pseudo-knowledge. Things not true that are accepted widely and hotly.

Their general category is the subjectivist narrative. They assume what should be proved, the assumptions are granted the status of evidence, and all the studies are self-confirmatory.

Equivocal language and the flabby tendentious thinking of critical theorists (academic third-raters, all) makes subjectivist narratives the perfect tool for the political demagogue.

This is where universities are headed. Intolerant, prejudicial mediocrity fiercely overseen by Commisars of right-think.

Overseen because university presidents and boards, and heads of national labs, will be judged by their commitment to right-think. If an unseemly interest in merit undercuts DEI, the Commisar will see to their exit. Today, disemployment; later on, execution.

To this, the halls of science have surrendered.

It seems far too many scientists are just methodological hacks. Unable to distinguish knowledge from pseudo-knowledge, the cultural theorists have effortlessly rolled them over.

AWG
Reply to  Pat Frank
April 13, 2021 7:30 pm

Truth. I no longer accept the claims of anyone who is a scientist outside of hard sciences (e.g. chemistry, geology, mathematics, physics). Everything else, I rely on those who are retired and don’t provide answers based on threats to their income and career.

Abolition Man
Reply to  AWG
April 14, 2021 12:51 pm

AWG,
You can rely on the claims of many doctors and epidemiologists, but mostly only if they’ve been memory-holed or banned by the social media! Those that parrot the official Party line are seen everywhere; trying to scare the sheeple into blind obedience and compliance with diktats from our Covid commissars! The actual experts are out there; they’re just a little harder to find!

Anon
Reply to  Pat Frank
April 13, 2021 7:53 pm

Or, it could be this:

Persuasion and the Prestige Paradox: Are High Status People More Likely to Lie?

Many have discovered an argument hack. They don’t need to argue that something is false. They just need to show that it’s associated with low status. 

The idea is that there are two paths, or two “routes,” to persuading others. The first type, termed the “central” route, comes from careful and thoughtful consideration of the messages we hear. When the central route is engaged, we actively evaluate the information presented, and try to discern whether or not it’s true.

When the “peripheral” route is engaged, we pay more attention to cues apart from the actual information or content or the message. For example, we might evaluate someone’s argument based on how attractive they are or where they were educated, without considering the actual merits of their message.

Our social brains process information not only by examining the facts, but also considering the social consequences of what happens to our reputations if we believe something.

https://quillette.com/2021/04/03/persuasion-and-the-prestige-paradox-are-high-status-people-more-likely-to-lie/

So, what that article seems to posit is that a certain portion of the population goes to University and on to STEM careers for the “social status” (I often see this in my premed students) and are not humble “truth seekers”. Therefore, when confronted with a controversial issue (eg CAGW) they will revert to their original motivations over seeking the truth. I was a bit surprised by this, as my involvement in science was out of intellectual curiosity (you go where the data takes you, whether you like it or not) but it does make sense.

It also might explain why scientists are most prolific during their twenties and thirties, not because the brain is more agile, but because young scientists have very little to lose as far as reputation. Where as, once you get established, you are more greatly rewarded as a “gatekeeper” than a rebel. I remember the story of Murray Gell-Mann, in his biography, of almost getting scooped for the discovery of quarks because of a paralyzing fear of being wrong.

So, apparently, social status plays an integral part in the STEM fields, and can supersede “truth seeking”; something I would have been loathe to acknowledge before reading that article.

RickWill
Reply to  Anon
April 13, 2021 11:14 pm

I have demonstrated the low level of predictive capability and poor hind casting climate models have for regions in the tropical oceans to the respective climate prognosticating institutions and have so far had two replies. Both offer the considered reply that their model is middle of the road. Any defence of the ridiculous output is based on model world not actual measured world.

The CISRO did pull back from their predicted warming in the Nino34 region to 314K by 2300 by suggesting that I should consider the 308K by 2100 as being more reasonable.

Climate modellers live in a pretend world where the physically impossible is always possible. They command an income as long as they maintain the faith – not really any different to any religious faith. Believers are rewarded infidels are crucified.

Antonym
Reply to  Anon
April 14, 2021 6:42 am

Examples or recently exposed high status habitual liars: Dutch PM Mark Rutte and Scotland’s FM Nicola Sturgeon, both during live cessions of their national parliaments.

Ruleo
Reply to  Antonym
April 14, 2021 3:17 pm

Cessions or sessions?

Izaak Walton
Reply to  Pat Frank
April 13, 2021 8:44 pm

Hi Pat,
Not sure what you mean by:
These areas of science have succumbed to sociology and culture studies. They not only include Covid and climate change, but extend to gender dysphoria, critical race theory, white supremacy, … and on and on.”
but last time I checked white supremacy was not a part of science. That sentence does not appear to make much sense.

Pat Frank
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 13, 2021 9:19 pm

You’re right, Izaak. But the claim of systemic white supremacy is given the knowledge-status of science. That was the point of my post. Try reading it again in that light.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Pat Frank
April 14, 2021 7:21 am

And they are using a newly minted term to signal it—equity.

TonyG
Reply to  Pat Frank
April 14, 2021 11:04 am

From what I’ve seen: Objectivity is considered a sign of white supremacy, and science requires objectivity, therefore science is white supremacy.

Just another excuse to give up rationality in favor of magical thinking.

DonM
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 13, 2021 9:20 pm

Izzy you dumb ass,

Have you seen the discussions about diesel & gasoline being racist?

Do you know that “These areas of sociology and culture studies” tie racism & white supremacy into everything just for effect?

Do you know that political science courses tie white supremacy into the concept of racism as systemic in our society?

YES you have & yes you do & yes you do.

Izzy you lying conniving dumb ass.

Davidf
Reply to  DonM
April 13, 2021 11:06 pm

And when the concept of a mathematically correct answer being colonial oppression is touted, it becomes abundantly clear that there is general decent into derangement.

Mr.
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 13, 2021 9:39 pm

I understood that ‘science’ was a method for researching stuff.

Could be applied to any notion that occurred to anyone motivated to discover “what explains this observation / idea / notion that I have?”

And the fundamental precept after exhausting the most obvious conclusions is – “how many ways have I got this wrong?”

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 13, 2021 11:12 pm

but last time I checked white supremacy was not a part of science.

You need to check more often. You’re sadly out of date. The terms “white supremacy” and “racism”, not to mention “white privilege” are all part of critical race theory, an up and coming addition to the “social sciences”. Covid and AGW are now thrown into the mix … the Marxist bag of demons used to destabilize Western society.

As I suggested earlier, the sentence makes perfect sense. You’re just to dense to grasp the obvious.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Rory Forbes
April 14, 2021 7:23 am

Or he is an agent actively promoting these ideas for ulterior motives.

Abolition Man
Reply to  Rory Forbes
April 14, 2021 7:25 am

Rory,
Izaak is more than out of date; he wears his horse blinkers proudly while sucking up his masters’ spew from the feedbag!
Like a horse, you can lead Izaak to water but you can’t make him think!

Peter D
Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 14, 2021 12:09 am

On the contrary, white supremacy has over years been very much part of science. It’s teaching followed the pattern of climate science. It has been shown again and again to be wrong over centuries, but that is irrelevant. It still rears its head in modern teaching that minorities are unable to compete in white societies.

Paul Penrose
Reply to  Peter D
April 14, 2021 9:47 am

“It still rears its head in modern teaching that minorities are unable to compete in white societies.”

I’ve often seen this referred to as “the soft racism of low expectations” which is why I’ve always found these notions to be insulting to minorities. I really don’t understand why any minority puts up with it, except maybe when they are paid off in some way.

Reply to  Izaak Walton
April 14, 2021 3:18 am

Not sure what you mean
You exactly describe your main problem 😀

Lurker Pete
Reply to  Pat Frank
April 14, 2021 12:05 am

Is it just a coincidence all those subjects follow a narrative dictated by non elected quazi-governmental organisations like the UN, WEF, and the associated clack of NGOs clinging to their tailcoats?

Pat Frank
Reply to  Lurker Pete
April 14, 2021 3:20 pm

The UN and NGOs would have no force without the backing of the academy and its incompetent scientists, abetted by the betrayal of willful silence by the scientific societies.

It’s true that the UN has far outlived its usefulness (if it ever had any). It should be defunded and shuttered (along with the EPA).

But the betrayal and abuse of science can be laid at the feet of the academy; our universities.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Pat Frank
April 14, 2021 7:41 am

VP HARRIS:

“Black women in our country are facing a maternal health crisis…we know the primary reasons why: systemic racial inequities and implicit bias.”

Insanity.

observa
April 13, 2021 7:11 pm

It’s a feel kinda thingy but apparently it helps if you’ve played dominoes-
Sudden Catastrophic Climate Events in The Past Had No Single Trigger. Here’s Why (msn.com)

jtom
April 13, 2021 7:22 pm

Face it, the scientific method is an elitist, racist, European, white-supremacist concept that must be consigned to the dustbin of history. What’s important is what facts, even if not found in the natural world, support ending capitalism and freedoms.

A fundamental element of capitalism is meritocracy. However, that prevents the ‘fair’ distribution of wealth. Everyone must have the same life in a just society. No one can deny that (or we will cancel them).

The concept of ‘survival of the fittest’ being key to natural evolution, likewise must be rejected, since that is nature’s form of meritocracy, i.e., only the best organisms for a given environment can survive and thrive. All of this is clearly racist and cannot stand. Science is rife with such discriminatory concepts. Science must no longer be taught as it has in the past.

What is really disturbing, though, is that a great number of noisy people believe the garbage I just wrote.

markl
April 13, 2021 7:30 pm

When you control the MSM you control the narrative and consequently public opinion. Only facts can sway public opinion but believing what are facts is the problem.

CD in Wisconsin
April 13, 2021 7:51 pm

“In woke “science” there is no falsifiable hypothesis. In place of that, we have the official orthodox consensus view. The official orthodox consensus view has been arrived at by all the smartest people, because it just seems like it must be right.”

I am no psychologist here and this is just my opinion…

It seems to me that this “woke” science is built on a foundation of fear and hate which is allowed to take over our thinking. The human intellect plays second fiddle to the fear and hate, and the COVID-19 lock-down and climate alarmist narratives are created in response to the latter.

When fear and hate take over, you can kiss good-bye to intellectual efforts like the scientific method and critical analysis. The narratives created are official state religion, and they are infallible because the believers must have action on their emotions. This of course plays right into the editorial thinking and policies of the mass media which has long had a habit of selling fear to the public along with the demonization of anything that does not conform to the required party line.

FDR said it himself at his inaugural address back in the early 1930’s: We have nothing to fear but fear itself. When science and the human intellect succumb to things like fear of diseases and hatred of fossil fuels, we shoot ourselves in the foot as we act on them mindlessly on a collective basis. The collective orthodoxy is never, never ever wrong….except when it is.

Mr.
Reply to  CD in Wisconsin
April 13, 2021 9:47 pm

An elegant hypothesis CD, but I posit a more basic explanation –
click-throughs from headlines.

Journals these days publish peer-reviewed content on the same basis as social media posts – views, shares & likes.

SAMURAI
April 13, 2021 7:58 pm

Leftists have all but abandoned the Scientific Method and replaced it with the logical fallacy of argumentum ad verecundiam…

The Woke Left no longer adhere to the Western Civilization axiom of Cogito, ergo sum (I think, therefore I am.) and have replaced it with: Sentio, ergo est (I feel, therefore it is.)

No society can survive long if there are no moral, ethical and empirical absolutes as it will surely descend into chaos and utter tyranny as we are seeing now.

Welcome to the Great Reset where the reality of: science, math, finance, morality, history, economics, language, laws, metaphysics, etc. are mercurial, and are arbitrarily determined by the Elites in power to maximize control over their citizens and steal as much of their wealth, freedom and dignity as possible.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  SAMURAI
April 13, 2021 11:23 pm

Leftists have all but abandoned the Scientific Method and replaced it with the logical fallacy of argumentum ad verecundiam

As we already have the evidence of Stalin’s pet agronomist, Trofim Lycenco, destroying Russian science for nearly 50 years, we know “The Left” abandoned the scientific method nearly a century ago. As you say; sentio, ergo est has indeed become the standard for the Woke society … and will be the maxim of “the Great Reset argumentum ad misericordiam. All they think about is feelings

ross
Reply to  SAMURAI
April 13, 2021 11:50 pm

You had me with logical fallacy

Paul Penrose
Reply to  SAMURAI
April 14, 2021 9:54 am

And with post-modern thinking declaring that words don’t have fixed meanings, but are “socially constructed” and may change at any time, depending on the speaker and/or listener, real meaningful communication is rendered impossible. When exchange of views and objective facts is no longer possible, we descend into tribal behaviors and endless warfare. That’s the real end of the world as we know it.

TonyG
Reply to  Paul Penrose
April 14, 2021 12:20 pm

Kinda like the “OK” sign being a “secret white supremacist signal” (some secret!) – but only when certain people use it.

Bill
Reply to  SAMURAI
April 14, 2021 7:27 pm

I think the Woke Left phrase is “cogito ergo sum rectum”…so to speak. 🙂

mbur
April 13, 2021 8:51 pm

It all sounds like ‘mass-sociogenic illness’ to me

Abolition Man
Reply to  mbur
April 13, 2021 9:14 pm

The inmates are running the asylum, while most of the citizenry have got their noses glued to their smart phone to better receive their daily dose of the official Party Truth and Wisdom!
It is rather daunting to see the number of useful idiots growing exponentially, while speakers of truth are bullied and attacked, or simply deleted when possible!

noaaprogrammer
Reply to  mbur
April 13, 2021 9:39 pm

‘mass-sociogenic illness’
It’s the Jim-Jones-Kool-aid syndrome.

Peta of Newark
Reply to  mbur
April 13, 2021 10:08 pm

Yes mbur
The words you could have used are: Chronic Depression

Not ‘sad’ depression, like where your Mum or favourite pet cat just died.
No.
The sort of depression brought on by consuming substances that promote the release of, especially, Dopamine in the human brain.
“Drugs” in the broad sense.

All “drugs” initially make you feel happy, bright and alert. They all do, that is why we consume them. The Dopamine does that.

But they all have side-effects.
Some make you more alert e.g. caffeine, nicotine, cocaine MDMA
Some make you sleepy e.g. alcohol, cannabis and not least, sugar
Sugar as both refined sugar you might put in coffee or soda-pop but also and especially, the sugar that comes from, that is, cooked starch.

The depressant effect comes from them all because, after the initial short spell of warm fuzzy happiness has worn off (the Dopamine is ‘re-absorbed’), the user/consumer finds themselves in a quite opposite state.
i.e. A spell of time with relatively low Dopamine levels
That is the depression.

Not especially intrinsic low Dopamine, relative low Dopamine caused by the artificially heightened level of the preceding hours, minutes even.

And that leads to everything we see going on.

  • Poor science
  • Crazy politics
  • Socialism = the desire to return to the womb & let someone else care for you
  • Buck passing & laziness
  • Deteriorating social skills, relationships & marriages
  • Belligerence & impatience leading to violence, physical, verbal and online virtual

All for the very simple reason that the human brain, having learned how to make itself (artificially) happy, constantly fixates on making itself happy again and, happy again as soon as possible.
It can not stop itself from doing so.

No, you can not ‘handle’ the booze. The instant anyone says that, the booze is handling them.
Same for every other drug.

Looking forward to the next ‘happy spell’ becomes The Priority – everything else, as listed above, falls by the wayside or is put off. Or finished in a hasty & slap-dash manner.
There is a never-ending race to get to the next Happy Time, no matter what.

And why things are so rapidly falling apart, why so many individual minds ## are fixated on Only One Thing, has been the demonisation of fat in our diet and its replacement with carbohydrate. i.e. Sugar

Because fat does not promote the release of Dopamine.
The alert reader will now understand why eating fat does not make you fat. Fat is self-limiting.
Sugar, because it produces happiness is not self limiting – is it actually possible to have too much happiness.

It gets much much worse because the brain compensates via Homeostasis.
It requires greater and greater amounts of the happy inducing chemical to generate the same (as before) degree of happiness. Almost like a logarithmic curve – you need 10 times the chemical to get twice the happiness

But, the degree of depression curve stays linear.
Thus, 10 times more drug only gives twice the happiness but produces 10 times the depression. Only increasing the urge to get to the next happy spell.
Things go downhill very very quickly because all the Dopamine producing chemicals have very detrimental physical effects on their users.
Anything does in large amounts in fact but usually the damage is recognised and consumption is reduced.

With Dopamine releasers, what we call ‘drugs’, the opposite happens.
The user succumbs to Magical Thinking, imagining that the substance doing the damage will in fact repair the damage, if sufficient is consumed.

Again, for the Alert Reader…
Do you see the urge to get everyone onto a meat-free diet?
It’s the Stepford phenomenon
It’s the urging, when you want to leave the party in the pub from the chorus of “Oh stay just a while longer, have One For The Road’
The Affected Ones want everyone to join them, to come visit Happy Land, to become socialists, to ‘see the light’, not to be a ‘party pooper’
To have another drink, to eat some more sugar.
To join, The Consensus.

Do you ‘see’ The Consensus now, do you see what is actually behind & driving it?
A chemically driven urge to be happy – with added benefit that the more chemical you eat, the happier you, and everyone, will become.
So so very tempting ain’t it…………

## Governments and large organisations are not immune and in fact, are even more susceptible.
Large organisations are made up of individuals and once a certain number are affected, everyone else inside that organisation get dragged in
A bit like a Critical Mass or Stepford Wives phenomenon
yes/no Does that sound to you like Climate Science?

Over to yo, to do your own research.
Start with “Gabor Maté CM”
On the toob

Then, put away the beer wine and whiskey, switch off the TV and computer, bin the papers and very simply, venture outside. See what you see.

Last edited 5 months ago by Peta of Newark
Martin Buchanan
Reply to  Peta of Newark
April 14, 2021 5:46 am

….so just how closely related to Carrie Nation are you?

DonM
Reply to  Peta of Newark
April 15, 2021 6:17 pm

“Same for every other drug.”

Don’t judge others by your lack of control.

I CAN handle the … aspirin, insulin, penicillin, lots of stuff …

Never use absolutes ….

Kit P
April 13, 2021 9:28 pm

You posit a falsifiable hypothesis. 

Here is mine. If you have to do a study, you do not have a problem.

No bodies, no smoking gun, no problem!

My last job in the navy was radiation safety officer. That was 40 years ago. One hypothesis is that low doses of radiation is good for you and another is that there is no safe level of radiation.

Clearly high exposure to radiation is a problem. In 1945, two cities in Japan had the problem. The rest of Japan had a problem of not enough food. Slow death of fast death. Big problem with lots of bodies.

In March of 2020 were being told that covid-19 was like the Spanish flu. It seemed a bit absurd to me that something that hadn’t happened in 100 years, was the conclusions world leaders were coming to.

I devised a test that would prove this false. I suggested to POTUS that a nuclear aircraft carrier to a port for R & R. Let sailers do what they do and see what happens when the crew is isolated when at sea. With no precautions, one 41 year old master chief died.

Not the Spanish flu. He is the only active military to die to date. There was a medical study done by the navy and published. It is not a secret, I have read it.

I live full time in an RV spending winters in the southwest. Nevada and Arizona provide statistics on covid-19 deaths. 90% old people and about 1% young people with a few inbetween.

Old people dying is not a problem. It is normal part of life. The problem is relatively young people at places like the CDC do not yet know this. They keep statistics so they can do studies so we can live longer.

What do the studies tell us? Getting old is the primary causal factor. There is no second place.

I purpose that we start a movement to list ‘getting old’ on death certificates for those over 70.

Mr.
Reply to  Kit P
April 13, 2021 10:17 pm

Here’s a similar idea –
when the births, marriages & deaths departments issue birth certificates, printed on the backs are death certificates, with just the “date” and “cause” lines left blank.

Saves paper & ink, and leaves everyone in no doubt as to what the outcome of being born is.

As that old saying goes –
“Life is the most dangerous journey anyone can take. Nobody comes out alive”

RickWill
April 13, 2021 9:54 pm

I happily endured the world’s longest lockdown in Victoria Australia. It did not impact financially because I am long retired. My middle son is a physician rostered into an empty Covid ward in May 2020 and his particular hospital peaked with two full wards of Covid patients and a third with suspected Covid awaiting confirmation (about 200 beds in total). He avoided contracting the virus being scrupulous with personal hygiene. It is job – his worst night was completing 10 death certificates, all Covid and all with other medical issues. His youngest death was a 72yo but there were younger ones who died in the intensive care unit. He was not rostered to intensive care and his patients who died were in palliative care.

Victoria is now operating without any restrictions other than signing in to visitor registers.

As far as I know there is no scientific write up on the results of Victoria’s lockdown. The rest of Australia simply slammed borders closed and managed hotel quarantine effectively so added all the drama that Victoria experienced.

The mounting issue in Australia is that all the new money injected into the economy is fueling unprecedented house price inflation exacerbated by growing tightness in the material supply chain so housing construction is slow. There is an emerging trend that has made suburban living more attractive than inner city living mostly the result of working from home. People want homes with good office facilities.

Kit P
Reply to  RickWill
April 14, 2021 8:24 am

“…an empty Covid ward in May 2020 and his particular hospital peaked with two full wards of Covid patients …

Is that ‘cold and flu season’ in your part of the world?

What the lock down in Las Vegas did was shift the peak cases, hospitalizations, and deaths into cold and flu season.

RickWill
April 13, 2021 10:12 pm

I have done comparisons of the skill level of a number of climate models in predicting the surface temperature in the Nino34 region. Thermostatically controlled warm pools at 30C drift in and out of this region meaning its temperature has been trendless at 27C for at least 10 million years – maybe a little down during glaciation when cooler water got further west than now and a little higher at the end of glaciation when water surface pressure was a tad higher.

The US climate prognosticators show both ways of producing a warming trend where there is none. GISS aligns with reality in 1980 and end ridiculously warm. NCAR start ridiculously cold and end in the ballpark of reality over this period but go on to show impossibly high temperature.

Knowing there is no “greenhouse effect” and knowing that sea surface temperature is limited to the range -2C to 30C enables the flaws in climate models to be clearly exposed.

Knowing that most OLR is emitted from Earth via ice in the temperature range 220K to 273K it is not surprising that the average radiating temperature is 255K but that is an outcome of predominantly cloud formation in response to the surface temperature. It is not a given but will move around as required to regulate the surface temperature and well able to cope with injection of trace gasses.

Chinese models are still wrong but they are not absurdly wrong like the other climate prognosticators.

Slide3.PNG
DMacKenzie
April 13, 2021 10:22 pm

It is ridiculous to say that lockdowns don’t work. At least to reduce the burden on the health care system, although the epidemic is extended, possibly allowing viral mutations to develop.
See figure 6, third graph down here in an ongoing experiment on several million people.
https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#total-cases
Lockdowns were invoked mid April, mid December, and again a few days ago due to half the cases being the new UK variant. Results obvious….No study required.

ross
Reply to  DMacKenzie
April 13, 2021 11:56 pm

Theres a host of lockdown side effects such as economic, employment and mental health just to mention a few. These are often omitted from the political narrative.

DMacKenzie
Reply to  ross
April 14, 2021 7:58 am

Yes, and when those effects cause more grief to society than the disease, then they need to be dropped by pragmatic people.

Paul Penrose
Reply to  ross
April 14, 2021 10:02 am

Yes, for example the suicide rate in the 12-18 year old group has skyrocketed in the US because all the schools were shut down for so long. Just the increase in deaths was 10x the death rate due to Covid-19 in that age group. We have done a grave disservice to our young people during the last year, and I fear the psychological damage and educational deficits will be with them for a long time. As a society, we will pay dearly for this.

Petit_Barde
April 13, 2021 11:05 pm

Lockdowns do not work :
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.604339/full

Abstract :

“We tested major indices from five domains (demography, public health, economy, politics, environment) and their potential associations with Covid-19 mortality during the first 8 months of 2020, through a Principal Component Analysis and a correlation matrix with a Pearson correlation test.”

“Stringency of the measures settled to fight pandemia, including lockdown, did not appear to be linked with death rate.”

Vincent Causey
April 13, 2021 11:56 pm

Unfortunately, it seems that woke science isn’t going to go away any time soon. When the last paradigm shift – the enlightenment – took over, it lasted from the late 17th century until the late 20th century. Based on that, we can look forward to 3 centuries of woke science.

Ed Zuiderwijk
Reply to  Vincent Causey
April 14, 2021 6:03 am

Nothing that WW III will not cure on day one.

M Courtney
April 14, 2021 12:21 am

Fascinating.
People who completely ignore the scientific evidence because they just “know” and yet who complain that the science isn’t based on evidence.

This used to be a sceptic site, An anti-bad science site.
But it’s now just an anti-science site. At least below the line.

Reply to  M Courtney
April 14, 2021 2:20 am

“But it’s now just an anti-science site”
Dunno, I think this site has lately attracted a lot of trolls, professional and paid freelance, to “muddy the waters”. There is still a lot of good science here, a lot of excellent layman contribution, and then there is Izaak Walton and his crew…
Have some patience with the amateurs, though, there are very few sites with this high academic standard that also cater to ‘ordinary people’. So sometimes we go a bit off, the opposition is totally off the whole time!

Paul Penrose
Reply to  M Courtney
April 14, 2021 10:05 am

M Courtney,
I’ll bet you can’t even accurately articulate what “science” is, let alone something complex like the difference between accuracy and precision, or the true meaning of what we call “temperature”. So your opinion on the value of this site is meaningless.

April 14, 2021 1:27 am

Population density and poverty/obesity are also factors.

saveenergy
April 14, 2021 1:57 am

In the UK, the conservative government probably killed between 40 – 60,000 by not closing the borders in Jan 2020 & bringing back people from covid areas (China, Italy etc.) then letting them spread around the country without quarantine or even a temperature test, a political decision taken against ALL medical advice.
Will anyone even be reprimanded for that … NO ! (Boris will probably get a knighthood)

Taiwan closed the borders early & had strict quarantine (nobody exempt), NO lockdowns, life carried on; they’ve had just 7 covid deaths.

Will we learn for when the next pandemic comes ?
I doubt it.

The UK covid death toll ~ 125,000, but many deaths from other causes (stroke, aneurysm, cancer) within 28 days of a positive covid test are registered as a covid death !!

On average seasonal flu kills ~20,000 annually in the UK
Flu deaths of people in England and Wales between January and August 2020 = only 394 !!!

(The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish a full breakdown of the deaths by flu and pneumonia for 2020 in mid-2021.)

Graemethecat
Reply to  saveenergy
April 14, 2021 4:56 am

Boris and the Conservatives in general have a mortal terror of being accused of racism. That’s the explanation for the failure to shut the borders at the beginning of the pandemic.

Leo Smith
April 14, 2021 2:16 am

Be very wary if how you interpret ‘deaths from Covid’ statistics.
In the UK it is ‘anyone who dies within 2 weeks of testing positive for COVID19’.

South Africa is also very lightly hit. But they havent the facilities to rest on any large scale.

I am very reluctant to put covid19 into ‘woke scare story’ status. Because even the politicians are obeying the rules. In a way they necver have with ‘climate change’.

In the UK the number of people in hospital and dying was approaching saturation point at one point in the first wave. Lockdown fixed that. When we relaxed a bit the second wave started.

Now post mass vaccination we are almost back to normal flu like death rates. Those are – as near as anyone standing ouside of a hospital ward can say – the facts.

Governments cannot wait until the science is solid. In the case of the UK the government faced a stark choice – being thrown out because too many people were dying and the NHS was almost overwhelmed, or being thrown out for implementing infeasibly harsh measures, until the science was better undersood.

Lockdown bought them time. But the case rates and death rates post lockdown implied some liklely sucess from it.

Masks? Well masks are cheap and its no big deal to ask people to wear them. Makes them feel better anyway.

I think in your analysis you are confusing two things – one is science, and the other is political crisis management.

We didnt stop publishing tables of artillery trajectories on the basis that the science of Newton might be superseded by Einstein.

It is of course unfortunate that certain political forces of te woke nature have found it conveneinet – as they di with climiate chgange. to use it as aan excuse to pursue a completely otrthogonal social agenda. But that doesnt invalidate the science that has been done, which is, when you ask the scientists – best guess, and comes with (sic!) a health warning, so to speak.

Look at it from a government perspective. I will talk UK only here

1/. People are getting sick and more than usual are dying, presenting with lung issues.
2/. People with microscopes identify a new corona virus is present.
3/. DNA analysis reveals it probably a mutated bat virus that gas crssed a species boundary.
4/. Pandemics sperad by personal proximity and contact, in the early stages will follow – must follow – an exponential risng curve, until enough peole have developed inmmunity or died, that case numbers fall. This isn’t even science. It’s basic math.

That was broadly all anyone knew back last spring.

The tools in the toolbox were very few.
(a) isolate the sick people.
(b) reduce interpersonal contact
(c) develop a partially effective vaccine – experience with flu viruses shows that it is unlikely that a one size fits all cvaccine would be proof againts mutations.
(d) improve personal hygiene.
(e) lie about it and pretend it wasnt happening.

test and trace and quarantine was already past its sell-by date – it works for a few isolated cases, but Covid was spreading like wildfire through the cosmopolitan urban centres.
Faced with the possiblilty of a politically unacceptable system of triage – simply leaving the worst cases to die in hospial reception areas and only fix the ones that had a chance of survival – the government pragmatically chose what was politically the lesser of two evils. And implemented lockdown as well as talking up perosnal hygeine, social distanceing and masks.

And for whatever reason it seemed to work. Case rates dropped. And the rules were relaxed somewhat. Until late summer and the run up to Christrmas when case rates started rising again.

And we went full on lockdown again.

Then vaccines became available, and by now with around 45% of the populatin having been vaccinated at least once, case rates are falling dramatically and we are able to get our hair cut again.

These are broadly the UK facts.

It is not a case of ‘the science is setled’ – in fact it never is – only in Michael Mann’s brain cell.

At least the UK government is prioceeding on a massively pragmatic and politically astute course, treading a line between unacceptably onerous restrictons on the population, and people dying in droves.
It is excerisng the well understod miltary principles of combat tactics and strategy, which are developed to provide guidelines on how to move and behave when you don’t know the facts at all.

And what that boils down to is ‘try a bit of X, if it works, try more, always remembering why you are in this situation at all, and assuming ‘works’ in terms of ultimately being able to get out of it with a strategic o rtactical objective achived. If X doesnt work, try something else…’

People here, so steeped in the realist philsophical perspective are as prone to fall for the skeptics ‘you haven’t proved it is so’ as for the alarmists ‘ everybody says so, so it must be true’.

BOTH of these are positions that Realism, with its insistence on right and wrong, truth and not truth, one dimensional Boolean thinking, makes ineveitable.

Here we are with Charles reminding us of Poppers criteria ‘science is not truth, its simply what works’ and in the same article criticising governments who are following exactly that advcice. In the fog of the ‘war against covid’, no one actually knows for sure, but we can’t do nothing.
We tried a little bit of lockdown and that seemed to work along with masks, social distancing and washing your hands.

The economic and and mental health price has been immense, but people seemed prepared to accept it. Mostly.

We also tried a bit of vaccination. That also seems to be working. Massively.

Science my well one day – as it did post every war I can think of, with perfect hindsight – show why such and such a measure was serendipitous, or useless.

But the generals in the thick of it dont have time for armchair experts and men in lab coats to do 20 years of testing before saying ‘the hypothesis seems to work, as far as we have done the tests’.

They have to do an on the spot ad hoc cost benefit analysis, and if they are politicians, that will include a clear assessment of the political damage it will do (in a democracy) as well as te damage it will do to the populatin. In a non democracy like the EU,. they are happy enough to not do anything at all, in case they get it wrong, becaiuse you can’t vote the ‘bar stewards’ out of office, anyway.

Anf of cpourse, in the end as the precious presidnet of the EU, Jean-Claude Juncker, said “When things get difficult, you just have to lie”.

Which is another politically pragmatic act. Faced with having completely failed to order enough vaccine in time,. they are now, ably assisted by competing pharmaceutical companies. suggesting that the ‘British’ vaccine, doesn’t work in the over 50s, is dangerous in the under 50’s and ‘we will confiscate it anyway because we should have had it first’….

In an ideal world, where there is only one actrual real world, and it behaves absolutely according to rigid principles of cause and effect, and human minds are so far above it and outside it that they can fully and exactly comprehend its nature, the science might indeed one day be settled, then we might do as suggested, and search for the Truth.

Meanwhile in this world, where we are not superanatural omniscient and omnipotent, all we have, are models. It’s models all the way down. There is no grain of provable truth, scientific or otherwise – in the game at all.

And I am equally disomissove of those who claim that there is and we have found it, as those who claim we havent yet, but science will in the end find it if done properly.

No. Charles, it wont. All it will find is models that work better. And if we are all dead by then, that isn’t a whole bunch of use, is it?

Spetzer86
April 14, 2021 5:26 am

This seems to be the “way of the future” or at least a reflection of where we’re supposed to want to go. The topic of an elite sub-group responsible for reviewing the data and issuing the group understanding is covered in Robin’s latest post at: http://invisibleserfscollar.com/neuroeducation-via-learning-standards-to-force-neuroliberalism-such-a-fruitful-site-for-intervention/

April 14, 2021 6:17 am

“If the evidence contradicts your hypothesis you must abandon it and move on.”

Karl Popper taught falsifiability as the boundary demarcation of science from nonsense in his Logic of Scientific Discovery.

Edwin Thomson Jaynes taught to maximize the entropy of naive subjective Bayesian priors, and to avoid ad-hockery. Make your assertion carefully and move on, don’t try to shore-up a failed hypothesis. Probability Theory: The Logic of Science

Coach Springer
April 14, 2021 7:00 am

If there is a political influence, it isn’t science. Simple enough.

Kevin
April 14, 2021 7:55 am

I thought it was the decline in the Gulfstream that was the cause of the cold weather in Europe.

It’s so confusing!

Neo
April 14, 2021 8:21 am

If you assume that the gating item to virus infection is Vitamin D, then locking people in their homes, out of the sun, is a losing proposition.

Pat from Kerbob
April 14, 2021 9:02 am

I think Covid19-21 is real, its just not the end of the world some suggest. It primarily takes off the old and the weak, and like any new bug it takes off a small number of perfectly healthy young as well. As does the flu.

Clearly it has mostly cured the flu, by taking all of those that would normally be lost to flu plus the next year victims and the others that have issues (one of the biggest reason for usa numbers is the general population is so unhealthy, obese, in the first place, Bill Maher is right about that).

I think looking back in 5 years we will see greater deaths than average thru 2020-21, but 2022-23 wiil be well below average since so many extra were taken off in 20-21.

The end result over 5 years will be average with small excursions depending on specific country situations.

Apologies to those who lost people

Mike Maguire
April 14, 2021 10:01 am

They still insist that we wear the almost worthless cloth masks and not the ones that work………….N-95 masks. Communities with long lived cloth mask mandates did no better than those without them. Many places are currently at 80% herd immunity, thanks to almost half the population having either been vaccinated or had COVID. It’s dumb to require people like that to wear almost worthless cloth masks.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/63115/

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Mike Maguire
April 14, 2021 10:29 am

Yes, but if we didn’t have government who would we go to for stupidity. Always 2 steps back of where they need to be

Mike Maguire
April 14, 2021 10:40 am

This is a great article and points about the scientific method Charles! Only when you are unable to prove yourself wrong………….can you have high confidence that you are right.

However, mainstream science today is all about having a theory, then looking for ways to use data that supports that theory. Then, creating convincing sounding narratives using subjectively interpreted data which only supports your theory(about CO2), while discarding everything that contradicts it.
When censored data and sources that contradict your theory sneak out………..smear and attack the sources……….instead of confronting them with evidence/proof that they are wrong and you are right. Because “The science is settled” and “The debate is over” as far as mainstream climate science is concerned. We want people to think that climate science is like………….gravity. Or photosynthesis……….oh, wait a second, they managed to redefine photosynthesis so that it now matches up with their theory about CO2.

Before: Sun + Water +CO2(beneficial gas) + Minerals = O2 +Food/Sugars
After: Sun + Water +POLLUTION(CO2) +Minerals = O2 +Food/Sugars +CLIMATE CRISIS
With a total emphasis on the POLLUTION(CO2) =CLIMATE CRISIS elements of the equation.

While authentic science continues to show that CO2 is a beneficial gas, politics has redefined it as carbon pollution in order to support a theory. CO2 is the building block for life for Pete’s sake. Calling it pollution is as anti science as you can get.

If those pushing the false narratives and their subjectively interpreted data about CO2 and the fake climate crisis would just use the scientific method…………that would quickly become clear to them.

Go back to 9,000 to 5,000 years ago for instance and note temperatures WARMER than this in the higher latitudes.What do we call that period? The Holocene Climate OPTIMUM(not crisis) because it was warmer, not in spite of it being warmer…………..and with less beneficial CO2 back then too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_climatic_optimum

Or note that that the planet is massively greening up:

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth

Those 2 facts, by themselves, should stop somebody in their tracks, that thinks humans are causing a climate crisis right now…………IF they were applying the scientific method to their thinking. At the very least, they would have to pause and take more time to research it before stating “The science is settled/debate is over”

michel
April 15, 2021 12:16 pm

An interesting piece in the Spectator is directly contrary to the point of view I have expressed. It concludes:

“So the most reasonable interpretation of the publicly available data seems to be that R was less than 1, and infections in decline, before each of the three full lockdowns to date. Measures short of full lockdown, and perhaps people’s own behavioural response to rising deaths, appear more likely to have been responsible for turning the tide of infection.

“Of course, data that are not yet publicly available, in particular from the NHS and ONS, could yet alter this picture in future. But using Imperial’s figures to claim that 20,000 lives were lost because lockdown was delayed is not valid. And if lockdowns were not essential to turning the tides of the epidemic, the question remains whether they were worth the collateral damage.”

So maybe I was wrong – it looks like I was – the piece and the study is done by a well qualified statistician who has analysed the data in depth.

Even so, it would have been a very brave Prime Minister who would have decided to let it run, in the faith that cases were about to start falling. I don’t think I would have dared take that risk.

TRM
April 15, 2021 7:25 pm

Great interview (60+ minutes) of Michael Levitt on Ivor Cummins show. They go over what they got wrong (honesty, what a concept!!!) and what they got right. Very refreshing.

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