The Week That Was: 2021-04-10 (April 10, 2021)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Arrogance comes in a variety of forms. The arrogance of great wealth, the arrogance of great power, the arrogance of great beauty, and the arrogance of a great master are bearable because they rest on an acknowledged and measurable base. The arrogance of ignorance, however, is unbearable because it is rooted in smug satisfaction with being isolated from the facts of the case.” –Biologist W.V. Mayer [H/t Jim Buell]
Number of the Week: – One chance in one hundred thousand.
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Russian Roulette Anyone? Last week TWTW discussed Richard Feynman’s book, What Do You Care What Other People Think? Further Adventures of a Curious Character which described Feynman’s experience on the Rogers Commission investigating the explosion of the Space Shuttle Challenger. The book provides a description of the turmoil and difficulty in getting administrators in Washington to realize the importance of making necessary corrections in policies as evidence is compiled that the policy is headed in the wrong direction and may become disastrous. Engineers were crossing their fingers every time the Space Shuttle was launched. Meanwhile NASA administrators were assuring politicians that the Space Shuttle was safe. Feynman described the situation as administrators playing Russian Roulette with the lives of astronauts and civilians on the shuttle.
A similar situation exists today. Ken Haapala knows that senior administrators of NASA have been informed that carbon dioxide is not causing dangerous warming, a so-called “climate crisis.” Yet they took no steps to correct members of NASA from claiming such. The director of NASA-GISS, Gavin Schmidt, is a member of President Biden’s special Climate Team promoting fear of CO2-caused warming. The contrived fear has been promoted for about 25 years by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and various other government entities such as the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and modeling entities such as the US National Center on Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
As demonstrated in the work of William Happer, Richard Lindzen, Howard Hayden, and others, decades of experiments and observations show that CO2 is only a bit player in changing climate. As importantly, the experiments and observations show that the effectiveness of CO2 on increasing global temperatures is logarithmic, which means that by its nature it is self-limiting. That is it takes an increasingly larger concentration to cause a given effect as the concentration increases. Even before the industrial revolution, or about 1850, which is the starting point for many studies claiming human-caused global warming, the effectiveness of additional CO2 on increasing temperatures was small. The generally accepted value for CO2 concentrations in 1850 is about 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv). As atmospheric CO2 increases, its effectiveness in increasing temperatures by delaying radiative cooling diminishes significantly. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is now about 410 ppmv.
The fear of CO2 causing dangerous warming and the political movement supporting it is creating ever increasing absurd proposals for “controlling” climate change. The enormously wealthy Bill Gates has advanced a proposal for diminishing sunlight, and the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine issued a book: Reflecting Sunlight: Recommendations for Solar Geoengineering Research and Research Governance. Apparently, it has never dawned on either Gates or the National Academies to search for the physical evidence demonstrating that CO2 is causing dangerous global warming. If they did, they would find the physical evidence weaker than the evidence used to claim the world is about to run out of oil and natural gas. Further, whatever evidence they may find is bound to be very weak, and strongly contradicted by compelling physical evidence.
Just as senior NASA administrators played Russian Roulette with the lives of those on the Space Shuttle, the Biden Climate Team and many in Washington are willing to play Russian Roulette with the lives of millions of people world-wide. They are unwilling to ask the needed question: What is your physical evidence? See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy.
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What Happened? The 1979 Charney Report speculated that a doubling of CO2 would cause global temperatures to increase by 3 °C +/- 1.5 °C (about 3 to 8 °F). There have been thousands of papers based on the high estimates, including many exaggerations. However, actual measurements of the atmospheric temperature trends show that even the low end of the estimated range may be too high. The Charney Report relied on claims by some numerical climate modelers that a small warming from CO2 would result in a far greater warming from increasing water vapor. This far greater warming is not being observed in the atmosphere where it should take place. The question is why are we not seeing it?
Ten years ago, Meteorologist Chuck Wiese posted on WUWT a criticism of claims by Al Gore:
“Gore claimed:
“’These warmer air masses (which Gore claims result from human carbon emissions that create atmospheric CO2) act like a sponge to moisture and soak it up until they hit a patch of cold air.’
“Gore then claims that this ‘extra moisture’ contained in the warmer air causes more intense precipitation and thus heavier snowfall and is all consistent with a warming earth.
“These statements by Gore are sheer nonsense. While it is true that warmer air can hold more moisture than cold air, the temperature of the air has nothing to do with how much water vapor will ultimately be evaporated (or as Gore puts it ‘soaked up’) into it. That is determined solely by what is called the vapor pressure gradient that exists between a sample of air that may overlay a plane of water. To examine this, we need to introduce the physical concept of vapor pressure.
“The equation that governs this is called the Clausius-Clapeyron equation for the vapor pressure of water and was named after the two chemists that derived it.”
Without TWTW going into the mathematics, Wiese explains that it is the difference in vapor pressure between the air mass immediately over the water and the large air mass passing over it that results in the absorption of water, not the temperature difference. If there is no big difference in vapor pressure, there is no significant increase in absorption of water, regardless of temperature differences. Wiese gives good illustrations of this phenomenon, and how big differences in vapor pressure result in what is commonly called “lake effect snow” that takes place each winter in areas bordering the Great Lakes, such as around Buffalo, New York.
The comments by Wiese led to a search of papers on the boundary conditions along the tropics where the Charney Report and climate modelers speculated significant absorption of water vapor would lead to the tropical “Hot Spot,” which has not been found even though it dominated the second IPCC assessment report (AR2, 1995). Wiese further commented on 1990s research called the Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment (CEPEX). The abstract of one study on “Atmospheric boundary layer over the central and western equatorial Pacific Ocean observed during COARE and CEPEX” published in the Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres states:
“The present study is based on aircraft data collected in the western and central equatorial Pacific as a part of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) and the Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment (CEPEX). The purpose of this discussion is to provide some insight into the coupling of the atmosphere to the ocean in regions of light winds and high humidity, as well as near deep organized convection, and to compare and contrast these climatically important tropical regions. The results presented use both the aerial extent of cold cloud top temperatures and surface layer similarity to highlight the variation of the surface fluxes as a function of convective regimes. A wide range of convective conditions were encountered during the 5 months of COARE and CEPEX, ranging from deep, towering anvils to shallow trade cumuli. The variety of conditions sampled has provided a unique set of turbulence data over open ocean, which are compared to fundamental spectral forms. Results suggest that assumptions regarding surface layer processes based on a large-scale assessment of the convective conditions are likely to be inaccurate.” [Boldface added, the abstract gives examples.]
One of the purposes of the CEPEX experiment was to investigate what is called the thermostat hypothesis including a super-greenhouse effect. One can reasonably assume that if strong evidence for the super-greenhouse effect were found, it would have been widely announced. There appears to be no continuation of the experiment, perhaps due to satellite measurements.
Last week, TWTW discussed that since 1975 NOAA has been using satellites to measure Outgoing Longwave Radiation from the Equator, 160E to 160W. These 55 years of data show wide variations but no trend. Without changes in Outgoing Longwave Radiation from the Equator there is no evidence of a super-greenhouse effect over the tropics in the Pacific. See link under Measurement Issues – Tropics
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More Blackouts? One way in which Washington may be playing Russian Roulette with the American public is by subsidizing unreliable wind and solar power. In Master Resource, Robert Bradley presents arguments about what went wrong in Texas. He presents his view which needs to be emphasized:
When the system loaded up on renewables, who would have known that low-to-negative marginal-cost pricing would have ruined the economics of baseload generators and natural gas peakers, existing and prospective. I was an adamant critic of wind power in the old days (1997) and just did not foresee this.
Reliable electricity did not arrive until many cities were built, but it is a critical part of urban living. Destroying reliable electricity by subsidizing unreliable electricity will make urban living more difficult and more dangerous. Many politicians and “experts” seem to be unaware of the importance of reliable electricity. Instead, they promote unproven devices to disguise the faults of wind and solar. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.
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Solar Caused ENSO? The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) results in El Niños (sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific warmer than normal) and La Niñas (sea surfaces in the central Pacific cooler than normal). The effects of El Niños were probably observed by natives along the coast of Peru before Europeans arrived. For some time, scientists have speculated that the variance is driven by the sun. Researchers with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) found a correlation between the termination of solar cycles, every 22 years, and the largest swings in ENSO. The correlation is not as “tight” as desirable, moving in lockstep. But it is far better observed than the relationship between CO2 and surface temperature trends, or CO2 and atmospheric temperature trends.
If the finding holds, then it will provide a significant improvement in forecasting these events which change weather patterns throughout much of the world. See links under Science: Is the Sun Rising? and Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
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14th ICCC Rescheduled: The 14th International Conference on Climate Change presented by The Heartland Institute has been rescheduled to October 15 to 17, 2021, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. See https://climateconference.heartland.org/
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
- The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
- The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
- The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
- The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.
The past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz, Michael Mann, Christiana Figueres, Jerry Brown, AOC, and Neil Ferguson are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on July 31. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you. For a list of past recipients and their accomplishments in earning this honor see http://www.sepp.org/april-fools-award.cfm
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Number of the Week: – One chance in one hundred thousand. In his book, Richard Feynman has a chapter titled “Fantastic Figures” in which he describes some of the estimates by NASA administrators that the Space Shuttle was safe to fly. NASA told the officer who decided whether to put destruction charges on the shuttle that the probability of failure was one in ten to the fifth power – 1 in 100,000. Feynman commented:
“That means you could fly the shuttle every day for an average 300 years between accidents—every day, one flight, for 300 years—which is obviously crazy!”
The response from the officer was:
“’Yes, I know, I moved my numbers to 1 in 1000 to answer all of NASA’s claims—that they were much more careful with manned flights, that the typical rocket isn’t a valid comparison, et cetera—and put the destruction charges on anyway.’”
Based on reviews of the climate modeling by NASA-GISS, 1 in 100,000 is the chance that NASA-GISS climate models are even remotely correct.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
New study ties solar variability to the onset of decadal La Nina events
Authors apply a 22-year solar clock to find an elusive correlation
Press Release, National Center for Atmospheric Research / University Corporation for Atmosphere Research, Apr 5, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
Link to article: Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Tropospheric Variability
By Robert J. Leamon, Scott W. McIntosh, and Daniel R. Marsh, Earth and Space Science, Feb 24, 2021
The Sun’s climate role confirmed
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Apr 6, 2021
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Sunspots and El Nino Part Two
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Apr 7, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Questioning the findings stated above. Also see below]
The Sun Also Sets
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Apr 6, 2021
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
The Happy Warrior Saves His Best Climate Writing for Last
By Patrick J. Michaels, Real Clear Energy, April 06, 2021
The Imaginary Climate Crisis: How can we Change the Message? A talk by Richard Lindzen
By Richard Lindzen, Clintel, Apr 5, 2021
48 Of 79 ‘Catastrophic Climate Change’ Predictions Have Failed…The Other 31 Just Haven’t Expired Yet
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 8, 2021
Link to: List of Climate-Related Apocalyptic Predictions
By David Rode, Paul Fischbeck, Aug 27, 2019
Link to paper: Title: Apocalypse now? Communicating extreme forecasts
By David C. Rode; Paul S. Fischbeck, International Journal of Global Warming, Jan 20, 2021
“Abstract: Apocalyptic forecasts are unique. They have, by definition, no prior history and are observed only in their failure. As a result, they fit poorly with our mental models for evaluating and using them. However, they are made with some frequency in the context of climate change.”
Dangerously Stupid Science: Solar Geoengineering
By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Apr 5, 2021
http://landscapesandcycles.net/dangerously-stupid-science-solar-geoengineering.html
Link to: Reflecting Sunlight: Recommendations for Solar Geoengineering Research and Research Governance
By Staff, National Academies Press, 2021
[SEPP Comment: See first link under Defending the Orthodoxy]
Opinion: Just When You Think It Cannot Get Any Worse
By Gordon Fulks, The Northwest Connection, Mar 31, 2021
“Real scientists bear some of the blame for failing to oppose mad scientists promoting nonsense.”
[SEPP Comment: Includes comments about an idea by Bill Gates to disrupt sunlight.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
A sun reflector for Earth? Scientists explore the potential risks and benefits
Press Release by Graduate Center, CUNY, Apr 5, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth
By Phoebe L. Zarnetske, et al. PNAS, Apr 13, 2021
From the press release: “Nine of the hottest years in human history have occurred in the last decade. Without a major shift in this climate trajectory, the future of life on Earth is in question. Should humans, whose fossil-fueled society is driving climate change, use technology to put the brakes on global warming?”
“The Climate Intervention Biology working group is funded by the National Science Foundation and will host sessions at two upcoming scientific conferences: “”Biosphere Responses to Geoengineering” at The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Annual Meeting this month, and at The Ecological Society of America in August, 2021.”
Reflections and projections on a decade of climate science
Various writers, Nature Climate Change, April 1, 2021
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Marine species increasingly can’t live at equator due to global heating
Study suggests it is already too warm in tropics for some species to survive
By Graham Readfearn, The Guardian, Apr 7, 2021 [Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Global warming is causing a more pronounced dip in marine species richness around the equator
By Chhaya Chaudhary, PNAS, Apr 13, 2021
The ‘Church of Climate’ Fights Back
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Apr 6, 2021
“Virtually impossible”: Australian scientists sound alarm over Paris climate goals
By Andrew Freedman, Axios, Apr 6, 2021
Link to report: The risks to Australia of a 3°C warmer world
By Staff, Australian Academy of Science. March 2021
[SEPP Comment: It appears that the staff of the Australian Academy of Science doesn’t understand the logarithmic relationship between CO2 and temperatures.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Taking America Over The Cliff
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 9, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Showing contradictions in past government claims and new government claims.]
“Protect Our Winters” (Snow a thing of the past?)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Apr 7, 2021
“Why just not say ‘we do not know’ about macro and micro weather–and put climate science in its place while doing so? False knowledge is worse than no knowledge when it comes to global warming, global climate change, or ‘global weirding.’”
An anti–global warming hysteria book is driving Norwegian warming hysterics nuts
By Gordon Tomb, American Thinker, Apr 9, 2021
“Mr. Wrightstone, recently named executive director of the Arlington, Virginia–based CO2 Coalition, responded with a letter of his own, noting that he has been accepted as an expert reviewer by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”
After Paris!
Global Net Zero Climate Change Targets are ‘Pie in the Sky’
By Mike Shedlock, Mish Talk, Apr 5, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
India tells Kerry: We’re meeting Paris targets, but where are the $100 billion Obama promised?
By Staff, AP, Via GWPF, Apr 8, 2021
Change in US Administrations
If I had a trillion dollars…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 7, 2021
Biden touts trains as fast as planes, supersonic jets in infrastructure push
By Steven Nelson, New York Post, April 7, 2021
[SEPP Comment: In the desert perhaps, or with totalitarian powers.]
Joe Biden wants to spend $2 trillion on infrastructure and jobs. These 4 charts show where the money would go.
The plan includes everything from road repairs and electric vehicle stations, to public school upgrades and training for the clean-energy workforce.
By Javier Zarracina, Joey Garrison and George Petras, USA Today, Apr 6, 2021
SEC chief grabs control
By Andrew Vollmer, The Hill, Mar 31, 2021
“Shortly after taking office in January 2021, the new acting chair began to divert the resources of the SEC to integrate climate, environmental, and social considerations, usually called ESG, into the agency’s broader regulatory framework. The acting chair directed the division responsible for corporate disclosures ‘to enhance its focus on climate-related disclosure in public company filings.’ Other divisions also shifted attention to climate and ESG-related areas.”
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
CO2 is Greening Planet Earth
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 6, 2021
Carbon Dioxide Fertilization and Biotech Crops Are the Keys to Ending Hunger
By H. Sterling Burnett, The Heartland Institute, Apr 8, 2021
Problems in the Orthodoxy
China’s carbon reduction target looks elusive as banks keep throwing cash at coal mines and power plants, undercutting Xi Jinping’s plan to slash fossil fuels
By Eric Ng, South China Morning Post, Apr 3, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
China’s carbon reduction target looks elusive as banks keep throwing cash at coal mines and power plants, undercutting Xi Jinping’s plan to slash fossil fuels
By Staff, South China Morning Post, Apr 3, 2021
China still weighs climate summit RSVP a week after Joe Biden’s invitation
Collaboration on environmental issues might help the China-US relationship but larger unrelated issues could hamper their ability to work together, say analysts
Beijing has declared it is willing to act, but the international community is watching to see how committed it is to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060
By Shi Jiangtao and Jacob Fromer in Washington, South China Morning Post, Apr 1, 2021
Daniel Yergin: China has strategic calculation on zero emissions
Beijing’s concerns are climate change, urban pollution and rising oil imports
By Hidemit Su Kibe and Nesreen Bakheit, Nikkei Asia, Mar 29, 2021
Seeking a Common Ground
Let Private Markets Assess the Financial Risks of Climate Change
By Marlo Lewis, Jr., CEI, Apr 2, 2021
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Interactive Effects of Warming and Elevated CO2 on a Tropical Forage Species
Alzate-Marin, A.L., Rivas, P.M.S, Galaschi-Teixeira, J.S., Bonifácio-Anacleto, F., Silva, C.C., Schuster, I., Nazareno, A.G., Giuliatti, S., da Rocha Filho, L.C., Garófalo, C.A. and Martinez, C.A. 2021. Warming and elevated CO2 induces changes in the reproductive dynamics of a tropical plant species. Science of the Total Environment 768: 144899, doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144899. Apr 9, 2021
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V24/apr/a4.php
CO2 Enrichment Effects on Chickpea Growth and Seed Quality
Lamichaney, A., Tewari, K., Basu, P.S., Katiyar, P.K., and Singh, N.P. 2021. Effect of elevated carbon-dioxide on plant growth, physiology, yield and seed quality of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) in Indo-Gangetic plains. Physiology and Molecular Biology of Plants 27: 251-263. Apr 7, 2021
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V24/apr/a3.php
CO2 Impacts on the Rhizosphere Microbial Community of Korean Red Pine
Lee, H., Lee, W.Y. and Kang, J.W. 2021. Effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on rhizosphere microbial community of Pinus densiflora (Korean red pin). Forest Science and Technology, doi.org/10.1080/21580103.2020.1866089. Apr 5, 2021
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V24/apr/a2.php
Models v. Observations
New Study: Models Fitting Modern Period “Just An Illusion”… CO2 Role Much Less Than IPCC Claims
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 3, 2021
Link to paper: Reconstruction of the Interannual to Millennial Scale Patterns of the Global Surface Temperature
By Nicola Scafetta, Atmosphere, Jan 24, 2021
Measurement Issues — Surface
NASA GISS Keeps Warming The Data, And Mysteriously Comes Out With 104 New Stations Going Back To 1882
By Kirye and P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 6, 2021
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Global Temperature Report, March 2021 Maps and Graphs
By Staff, Earth System Science Center, UAH, Apr 1, 2021
Regarding Thermodynamics and Heat Transfer (Why Al Gore’s Comments to Bill O’Reilly at Fox News Are Wrong)
By Chuck Wiese, WUWT, Feb 17, 2011
Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment
By Staff, CEPEX, Accessed Apr 9, 2021
Atmospheric boundary layer over the central and western equatorial Pacific Ocean observed during COARE and CEPEX
By Yolande Serra, et al. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, October 1997
Changing Weather
La Nina is Collapsing
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 7, 2021
Australian Floods
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 6, 2021
Claim: Colorado River basin due for more frequent, intense hydroclimate events
Research News by Staff, DOE/Los Alamos National Laboratory, Via WUWT, Apr 8, 2021
Link to paper: Concurrent Changes in Extreme Hydroclimate Events in the Colorado River Basin
By Katrina E. Bennett, Carl Talsma and Riccardo Boero, Water, Apr 1, 2021
“Extreme events resulting in catastrophic damage have more than doubled in the last five years, costing hundreds of lives and thousands of homes, and heavily undermining regional economic stability. At present, most of these hydroclimatic extreme events are documented by the media as individual events; however, in scientific terms, many are better understood as concurrent events—concurrent extremes of both temperature and precipitation (e.g., drought, floods).”
[SEPP Comment: The authors cannot tell the difference between physical events and media reports of events!]
New Study: 100-Year Flood Events Are Globally Decreasing In Frequency And Probability Since 1970
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 5, 2021
Link to paper: Global Changes in 20‐Year, 50‐Year, and 100‐Year River Floods
By L. Slater, Geophysical Research Letters, Mar 9, 2021
March Weather Past & Present
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 8, 2021
Changing Seas
Study reveals uncertainty in how much carbon the ocean absorbs over time
By Jennifer Chu for MIT News, Boston MA (SPX) Apr 06, 2021
“Researchers found that the ‘gold standard’ equation used to calculate the pump’s strength has a larger margin of error than previously thought, and that predictions of how much atmospheric carbon the ocean will pump down to various depths could be off by 10 to 15 parts per million.
Researchers discover that ‘cryptic species’ respond differently to coral bleaching
Finding has implications for the long-term health of coral reefs
Press Release, NSF, Apr 5, 2021
Link to paper: Response diversity in corals: hidden differences in bleaching mortality among cryptic Pocillopora species
By Scott C. Burgess, et al. Ecology, Mar 10, 2021
Know Your Plates (Part 1)
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, April 4, 2021
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
“Evidence” Of Tipping Point For Pine Island Glacier
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 5, 2021
“From the ‘We are all going to drown department’”
Polar bear problems onshore in Svalbard before prime feeding season
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 5, 2021
Changing Earth
Subsidence In The Bangladesh Basin
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 7, 2021
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
How climate change affects Colombia’s coffee production
News Release, University of Illinois College of Agriculture, Consumer and Environmental Sciences, Apr 5, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
“The researchers analyze climate data from 2007 to 2013 across Colombia’s 521 coffee-producing municipalities and evaluate how temperature and precipitation affect coffee yield. Subsequently, they model anticipated weather conditions from 2042 to 2061 and future coffee production for each municipal area.”
“My family’s farm is about 1,900 meters above sea level. Twenty years ago, people would consider that an upper marginal coffee growing area. But now we’re getting significant improvements in yield,” he [researcher] says.]
[SEPP Comment: No temperature data cited, was the improvement in yields from increasing CO2?]
India’s Food Productivity Slashed By 25% Claim
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 3, 2021
Lowering Standards
The Relationship between Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration and Global Temperature for the Last 425 Million Years
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 7, 2021
“Atmospheric concentration of CO2 is not correlated with temperature.”
“The absence of correlation proves conclusively the absence of causality “
“It can’t be any clearer than that.
“I think the BBC owes its audience an abject apology for misleading them so seriously. And perhaps next time they should get a proper scientist to host their Christmas Lecture
U.S. East Coast sea level rise in 20th century fastest in 2,000 years
Global increase from melting ice and warming oceans is most significant change since 1800
News Release, NSF, Apr 8, 2021
Link to article: Global increase from melting ice and warming oceans is most significant change since 1800
By Neal Buccino, Rutgers Today, Mar 23, 2021
Link to paper: Common Era sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast
By Jennifer S. Walker, Nature Communications, Mar 23, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Based on six sites on the subsiding coastal plain in mid-East coast US!]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Oh, scientists say, do they?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 7, 2021
“As Jerry Fletcher says in Conspiracy Theory, ‘A good conspiracy is unprovable. I mean, if you can prove it, it means they screwed up somewhere along the line.’”
Scientists say
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 7, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Fire is good! Fire is bad!]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Making The Pause Disappear
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 8, 2021
Climate change has slashed global food productivity by more than 20% in the past 60 years, study claims
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 3, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Using evidence to destroy false claims.]
BBC Say Bangladesh Farmers Are Suffering From Climate Change–As Production Triples
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 6, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Who Is the Phoniest of Them All?
By John Hinderaker, Power Line, Apr 3, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Perceptions of climate impacts at odds with scientific data
Press Release, GWPF, Apr 1, 2021
Climate alarmism is misleading the public
A new poll shows that many people think the planet is in a far worse state than it really is.
By Andrew Montford, Spiked, Apr 1, 2021
Science by press release
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 7, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Making Kids Shrill, Scared and Stupid
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Apr 3, 2021
Churning out a million little political activists
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 4, 2021
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Pro Big Government Economist Calls for a Renewable Energy Moonshot
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 5, 2021
“Leading economist Mariana Mazzucato isn’t the first to ask why, if humans can land on the Moon, they can’t also solve some of the huge challenges here on Earth such as climate change, poverty or a plastic-free ocean.”
[SEPP Comment: Obviously does not understand the difference between problems in physics and problems in social science! How does one stop climate change, which has been occurring for hundreds of millions of years? It has become a social problem by governments creating false fears based on false claims of understanding.]
Questioning European Green
Ross Clark: Net Zero’s spiralling costs will hit the poorest hardest
By Ross Clark, The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Apr 6, 2021
Belong To The Climate Club Or Get Penalized: The EU’s New Trade Protectionism
By Tilak Doshi, Forbes, Via WUWT, Apr 6, 2021
[SEPP Comment: It’s just not the “Ugly American” anymore!]
Net Zero targets could make millions of old homes unsellable
By Staff, The Times, via GWPF, Apr 4, 2021
Germany’s Windexit…Old Wind Turbines Dismantled Without Replacement…Looming “Massive Power Outage”?
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 7, 2021
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Biden’s Green Deal faces backlash from US states
By Staff, Financial Times, Apr 4, 2021
Funding Issues
NASA Awards Global Change Research Support Services Contract, Apr 8, 2021 [H/t William Readdy]
“The purpose of the USGCRP support contract is to acquire technical and administrative support for the USGCRP National Coordination Office (NCO), located in Washington. The NCO’s mission is to assist the nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.”
[SEPP Comment: Can it separate human-induced from natural process of global change?]
Infrastructure Bill To Fund Trojan Green New Deal
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Apr 7, 2021
Goldman Sachs has made big promises on climate policy — but where does the money go?
Giant investment bank has loudly trumpeted its climate commitments. Its actual record tells a different story
By Jon Skolnik, Salon, Apr 3, 2021
[SEPP Comment: For overwhelming evidence the report links to a three-year-old report in The Guardian!]
The Political Games Continue
Big Meat and Dairy Companies Have Spent Millions Lobbying Against Climate Action, a New Study Finds
The companies have been slow to make emissions reductions pledges, and have worked to undercut climate and environmental legislation.
By Georgina Gustin, Inside Climate News, Apr 2, 2021
[SEPP Comment: No link to the recent study.]
Litigation Issues
Appeals Court Upholds Dismissal of NYC’s Climate Lawsuit
William Allison Energy In Depth April 1, 2021
The Latest On The “Stupidest Litigation” In The Country
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 4, 2021
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Derev’ya derivatives
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 7, 2021
“By [Russia] selling carbon credits to international firms, they could put a massive dent in global warming without, and here’s the marvellous part, anyone having to do anything differently.”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Unplug Democrats’ Tesla Tax on the Poor
By Oliver McPherson-Smith, Real Clear Energy, April 06, 2021
Energy Issues – Non-US
Fossil fuels to dominate Africa’s energy mix this decade – report
By Staff, Power Engineering International, Jan 13, 2021
Why South Africa’s electricity blackouts are set to continue for the next five years
Hartmut Winkler, University of Johannesburg, Via WUWT, Apr 5, 2021
Home radiators will have to be 10 degrees cooler for Britain to reach climate targets
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 5, 2021
China’s bitcoin mining threatens climate goals as energy consumption overtakes that of European countries
By Staff, Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Apr 6, 2021
“Bitcoin mining in China will outstrip the energy consumption of European countries by 2024, scientists say, warning that the industry threatens climate change goals.”
Energy Issues – Australia
ABC tells 100% renewable Canberrans that electricity prices are rising $300 “because they are falling”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 8, 2021
Energy Issues — US
Texas Blackout: Costs, Blame Mount
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Apr 5, 2021
Time to Update Wholesale Electric Markets – But Don’t Forget the Benefits of Traditional Utility Regulation
By Bernard L. McNamee, Real Clear Energy, Apr 8, 2021
Until Something Better Comes Along, We’ll Need Base-Load Power for Grid Reliability
By Bernard L. Weinstein, Real Clear Energy, April 5, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Solar and wind are not reliable for critical backup.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
It Takes Lots of Permits to Save the Planet
Every new energy project has to go through a convoluted and unpredictable federal approval process.
By Mario Loyola, WSJ, Via CEI, Apr 4, 2021
Return of King Coal?
African nations planning 1250 new coal and gas power plants, study reveals
By Staff, GWPF & Power Engineering International, Apr 3, 2021
Nuclear Energy and Fears
UAE’s First Nuclear Unit Enters Commercial Operation
Emirates Nuclear Energy Corp. (ENEC) said Unit 1 of the Barakah nuclear facility has entered commercial operation, nine years after construction of the Arab world’s first nuclear power plant began.
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag. Apr 6, 2021
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Electricity Markets: Contrived/Distorted vs. Real (debating the Texas Blackout)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, April 8, 2021
Massive Solar Farm Will Serve Texas Grid
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag. Apr 6, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Which will do nothing to meet late afternoon / evening peak demand in August except erode the financial viability of reliable generators of electricity.]
Solar Energy in the Sunshine State: FPL Leads the Way
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, Apr 8, 2021
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Ethiopia to go on filling Nile mega-dam despite impasse: minister
By AFP Staff Writers, Addis Ababa (AFP), April 7, 2021
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
A new type of battery that can charge ten times faster than a lithium-ion battery created
By Staff Writers, St. Petersburg, Russia (SPX), Apr 07, 2021
Link to paper: The Fast and the Capacious: A [Ni(Salen)]‐TEMPO Redox‐Conducting Polymer for Organic Batteries
By Anatoliy A. Vereshchagin, et al. Chemistry Europe, Nov 17, 2020
New batteries give jolt to renewables, energy storage
By Staff Writers, Ithaca NY (SPX), Apr 06, 2021
Link to paper: Regulating electrodeposition morphology in high-capacity aluminium and zinc battery anodes using interfacial metal–substrate bonding
By Jingxu Zheng, et al. Nature Energy, Apr 5, 2021
Apple to build battery-based solar energy storage project in California
By Stephen Nellis, Reuters, Mar 31, 2021
Environmental Industry
Nepal Wildfires Worst For Decades (Well, Nine Years Anyway)–Greenpeace
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 8, 2021
Other Scientific News
Scientists achieve single-photon imaging over 200km
By Staff Writers, Beijing, China (SPX), Apr 06, 2021
Link to paper: Single-photon imaging over 200 km
By Zheng-Ping Li, Optica, Vol 8, Issue 3
First results from Fermilab’s Muon g-2 experiment strengthen evidence of new physics
By Staff Writers, Chicago IL (SPX), Apr 08, 2021
“The strong evidence that muons deviate from the Standard Model calculation might hint at exciting new physics. Muons act as a window into the subatomic world and could be interacting with yet undiscovered particles or forces.”
These fish stole an antifreeze gene from another fish and became natural GMOs
Evidence suggests gene moved from herring to smelt in process similar to genetic modification in the lab
By Emily Chung, CBC News, Apr 6, 2021 [H/t Gordon Fulks]
[SEPP Comment: Does this mean that humans are genetically modified?]
Other News that May Be of Interest
America’s Recycling System Is Broken – AND Repairable
By John Hayes, Real Clear Energy, April 02, 2021
Since Nature Activists Brought The Wolf Back To Germany, Humans Threatened As Encounters Rise
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 2, 2021
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
This was written by a meteorologist?
By David Middleton, WUWT, Apr 8, 2021
“AUSTIN (KXAN) — While it’s now common knowledge that man-made greenhouse gas emissions trap more heat at the Earth’s surface…” [Boldface added]
[SEPP The greenhouse effect takes place at the surface??? Further comments on the foolish findings of NASA discussed in last week’s TWTW.]
British army readies solar farm to reduce emissions
By Ed Adamczyk, Washington DC (UPI), Apr 7, 2021
[SEPP Comment: How do they camouflage it?]
Melting Arctic Drove Beast From The East Claims Fake Study.
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 2, 2021
Some In California Want To Slow Rooftop Solar Adoption — Does That Make Sense?
By Zachary Shahan, Clean Technica, Apr 4, 2021
Article has ad: “Solar For No Cost At Install. Go solar for no cost at install and get paid over $2,039 after install.”
The ocean is becoming more stable: Why that might not be a good thing
By Phil Hosegood, The Conversation, Apr 8, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
The mushrooms of death
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 7, 2021
“A reader alerts us to the claim that fungi emit more CO2 than people. Some 85 gigatonnes annually by one estimate.”
ARTICLES
Sorry, the Economic Crisis Is Over
It’s getting harder for the White House and Federal Reserve to pretend that emergency policies are needed.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Apr 5, 2021
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins:
“It’s getting harder for the Biden Administration to claim we’re in an economic crisis that demands more spending. It’s closer to the truth to say the economy is growing in a way that calls for spending and monetary restraint.
“The latest evidence arrived Monday with the Institute for Supply Management’s news that its March survey for service businesses hit 63.7. That’s an all-time high, and it signifies rapid growth and optimism. The only problem is that many businesses say they can’t find enough workers or supplies to meet their order books.
“That follows Friday’s blowout employment report for March, with a net total of 1.07 million new jobs including revisions from the previous two months. Wage gains were bigger than they looked at first glance, given that many returning workers were those in lower-wage services jobs hurt by the pandemic.
“Other economic signals confirm that the economy is set to soar this year if new strains of Covid-19 don’t defeat the vaccines and the politicians don’t do anything dumb. The bottom of the recession may have been as early as last April, and the economy has been growing for at least nine months.”
The editorial concludes the economic crisis is political, to which TWTW adds so is the climate crisis.
From the post: “ The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is now about 410 ppmv.”
The increase from 280 to 410 effects several things.
1. What is the new mass of a mole of air?
2. What is the new specific heat of air?
3. What is the new lapse rate due to changed specific heat?
4. Why is the warming capability of CO2 not mentioned in specific heat tables, the Shomate equation, or the NIST data sheet?
My answer to all 4 of your questions is: it’s insignificant.🙂
Then you really don’t understand.
I don’t think you have a clue.
PR China made a rail connection to the EU through Kazakhstan and Russia for their exports. This can also transport Russian or Iranian oil.
Why would they need a road connection to Pakistan through the Himalayas in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir? Polluting, technically difficult and controversial, an geopolitical decision, not to get to Arab oil.
https://www.scirp.org/pdf/acs_2020041718295959.pdf
This experiment looks for and finds no significant CO2 forcing. wondering if it haas been duplicated anywhere
” As atmospheric CO2 increases, its effectiveness in increasing temperatures by delaying radiative cooling diminishes significantly.”
We need to be careful about using the term “increasing temperature”. This falls right into the usage that alarmists want us to use. I would say, “As atmospheric CO2 increases, its effectiveness in reducing cooling …”. Don’t validate their propaganda that CO2 raises the temperature. A cold atmosphere can not “raise” the temperature of the earth, only slow the cooling.
You can see the Arctic air attack in two days over the Great Lakes.
Not even that. No one ever showed CO2 is even a bit player in changing climate. If you think I’m wrong then cite empirical research which validates the claim “experiments and observations show that CO2 is … a … player in changing climate“.