The Week That Was: 2021-02-27 (February 27, 2021)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “For every problem, there is at least one solution that is simple, neat – and wrong.” ‒ attributed variously to H.L. Mencken, Peter Drucker, Mark Twain, and others [H/t Richard Lawhern, ACSH]
Number of the Week: – 4 GW Short
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
No Reserves Sir! Last week TWTW focused on the failure of utility operators in Texas and California to provide reliable electricity during extreme weather events, cold in Texas and heat in California. In Texas, the finger-pointing continues with no one willing to accept responsibility. As the “Planning Engineer” wrote in Climate Etc.. there are no market incentives for reliable capacity in Texas.
Independently, Donn Dears who predicts expanding blackouts in the US arising from poor policy decisions, Paul Homewood who analyzes energy issues in the UK, and Bill Peacock who has written extensively on Texas power issues, analyzed the data and came to similar conclusions: there was sufficient capacity in Texas to address the extreme weather event, but it was of the wrong type. It was nameplate, paper capacity, mainly in wind and solar rather than dispatchable, reliable capacity mainly in coal, gas, and nuclear. Promoters of wind and solar have done a great job in confusing the public into believing these two types of capacities are similar when they are not. Furthermore, over-reliance on just-in-time natural gas led to electricity shortages as demand for gas for heating increased dramatically and freeze-ups occurred at gas wells where water produced along with gas froze.
Cliff Mass of Weather Blog explains that states in the Great Plains can expect occasional wild swings in temperatures as cold comes in from the Arctic. Winter weather in Texas is often influenced by warm winds off the Gulf of Mexico, sudden drops in temperatures with extreme winds called Blue Northers can occur. It can be 80 °F (27 °C) at noon and 15 °F (minus 9 °C) at midnight. This is all part of the natural weather and it is due to geography of the U.S., Great Plains, and the Gulf of Mexico. (Similarly, tornadoes are more common to the Great Plains and the southeastern US than most areas due to the geography.) As Homewood writes:
“And it is obvious that in building the infrastructure of Texas–from power generation, to transportation, to water storage and transport— there must be a consideration of the potential, if not the certainty, of big temperature swings.”
The utilities in Texas and the politicians who set polices need to prepare for wild swings in temperatures and winds. Clearly, they were not prepared. As discussed in TWTW last week, no one is responsible for assuring appropriate capacity is available for an extreme weather events. Further, the system is not winterized. As discussed in a Wall Street Journal linked below even grid systems that are winterized experienced shortages, but not as severe. A big problem in Texas is overreliance on gas turbines, which provide short-term peaking power, but are not efficient for providing sustained power for hours or days. Combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT), coal, and nuclear are far mor appropriate for sustained power. Due to lack of planning for extreme weather, consumers experienced blackouts and possible huge bills for short-term power.
Donn Dears presents a clear graph “Reserve Margin Composition” illustrating what has gone wrong. As electricity use in Texas has increased, nearly all the reserve power is in unreliable wind and solar, not in reliable coal and nuclear.
When faced with no reserves to meet heavy demand, The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) was forced to selectively shut down or experience massive failure. It is like a European World War I general calling up the reserves in a major battle only to be told there are no reserves. See links under Science, Policy, and Evidence, Changing Weather, Questioning Green Elsewhere, Energy Issues — Texas
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Naming Games: Given the lucrative Federal tax credits that can be transferred to other businesses or individuals that solar and wind developers receive, probably there is little the politicians and utility regulators in Texas can do to prevent the Federal incentives. However, Jim Peacock has specific recommendations that Texans can accomplish:
“Fortunately, there is a simple path to reform.
“First, the Texas Legislature must this session eliminate all subsidies and benefits for renewables in Texas. These include the state’s renewable energy credit program, property tax abatements under Chapters 312 and 313 of the Texas Tax Code, and subsidized transmission across hundreds of miles of Texas.
“Second, the Legislature must direct the PUC [Public Utility Commission] to require that wind and solar operators rather than consumers bear the costs their intermittency and federal subsidies impose on the grid. Texas cannot stop renewable generators from reaping federal subsidies, but it can stop most of their harmful effects.
“Third, the Legislature must end the PUC’s constant intervention in the Texas electric market. It can start by eliminating the electricity tax and other so-called “reliability adders” that do nothing more than distort market operations. On top of that, the Legislature can also eliminate price caps, restrictions on generation ownership, and archaic antitrust measures that hinder investment in the Texas market.
“In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Texas created something no state and few nations had ever accomplished before–a competitive (though still regulated) electricity market. It has functioned well over the years, providing Texans with a reliable and affordable supply of electricity. However, the fact that special interests and overzealous regulators have slowly compromised the ability of the market to meet the needs of Texans is now on full display. The Texas Legislature must act decisively this year to implement free-market reforms or the situation will only get worse.”
In addition, it is the responsibility of the legislature to assure that the sources of power be able to handle cold emergencies as well as heat contingencies.
In correspondence, Practicing Geophysicist Norm Kalmanovitch discusses another issue concerning Texas regulations.
“When a gas well is frac’d the initial production (called “flush production”) is at a high rate, but after a relatively short period of time the flush production at a high rate and high well head pressure drops to a steady production at a much lower rate and lower well head pressure.
Gas pipelines operate at much higher pressure than the well head pressure of frac’d gas wells requiring that the gas from frac’d wells be compressed to pipeline pressure before it can be transmitted by the pipeline.
“The normal intelligent practice is to use the natural gas being compressed as the energy source to drive the compressors but in Texas following climate change doctrine the ‘less than intelligent’ (i.e., stupid) practice uses electricity to power the gas compressors for the political cosmetic of “reducing emissions”.
“Wind and solar power generation only work when the wind is blowing, and the sun is shining which is why conventional power generation is always maintained at a level to compensate for power lost when wind and solar fail.
“Texas has more than enough conventional power generation capability to supply all of Texas with electricity but stupidly added enough wind turbines to supply up to 24% of the Texas electric power.
“On paper this 24% of Texas power from wind, places wind above coal as a power generating energy source second only to natural gas of which a large percentage is now produced by horizontal drilling and multistage frac’ing of massive shale reservoirs.
“This has set up the perfect scenario for a major blackout as just occurred in Texas with the natural gas power generation dependent on electricity for the compressors and this electricity suddenly not being generated by frozen wind turbines and snow-covered solar panels.
“Under normal circumstances failure of wind and solar power generation is easily compensated by increased power generation from coal and natural gas, but in this case the sudden shut down of wind and solar also shut down the compressors feeding natural gas to the gas fired power plants preventing them from compensating for the power loss from frozen wind turbines and snow-covered solar panels.”
It is amazing that natural gas wells that can generate electricity from their product at far lower costs than electricity from the grid are forced to shut down when electricity from the grid is not available. Yet in part, the needed electricity from the grid depends on natural gas.
To this, TWTW may add that economists have come up with a very imaginative plan to tax plant food, carbon dioxide, called the Social Cost of Carbon [Dioxide]. Surely after the blackout, economists in Texas can come up with an imaginative plan to tax wind power when it is needed but not delivered, say the social cost of phantom power?
Generally, the Energy Information Agency classifies types of electric power generation into dispatchable, which can reliably generate electricity when needed such as by coal-fired power plants; and non-dispatchable, which cannot reliably generate electric power when needed, such as wind power. However, the public seems to be confused by terms such as dispatchable and non-dispatchable.
TWTW readers are encouraged to submit their ideas on what to call electrical capacity that cannot be relied upon. Phantom power? Paper power? See links under Questioning Green Elsewhere.
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NYET! After the victory in Europe during World War II, the Charter founding the UN was signed on June 26, 1945. The Charter entered into force on October 24, 1945, after Japan surrendered ending World War II. The Charter provided for 5 permanent members of the Security Council which had veto power over the UN’s actions, the Republic of China, France, the Soviet Union (Russia), the UK and the US. Students of the Cold War may remember that Russia often exercised it veto power with a firm Nyet, No!
This week, the UN discussed whether climate change, global warming, is a threat to global security. Russia said NYET!
Students of the Cold War who realize that climate change has been ongoing for hundreds of millions of years, and that carbon dioxide is a bit player in this ongoing change, may consider it ironic that Russia vetoed the latest UN effort, proposed by western leaders, to undermine the prosperity of the West by attacking reliable fossil fuels. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
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Sea Level Rise: Increasing sea level rise is a frequent topic by alarmists. Full tidal records from geodetically stable tidal gauges, such as those in Newton, Cornwall, England, show that satellite measurements indicate a greater rate of rise than actual gauges. These two sets of data indicate that the satellite estimates are not fully calibrated with physical measurements. More importantly, stitching past tide-gauge data together with satellite data makes a graph that shows a fictional acceleration in sea rise. If the acceleration were real, all geodetically stable tide gauges would show it. In fact, none do.
A similar problem is occurring in estimates of sea level rise by different satellites. Unfortunately, a popular graph from the University of Colorado runs four different data sets together, even though they were taken by four different satellites. The graph does not use the complete data sets and does not show overlap.
Anthony Watts reviews work showing the complete datasets. The overlap shows a disparity in the trends as calculated from different satellite measurements. Individual trends do not show an increasing sea level rise. The University of Colorado graph is an example of poor science that has become popular. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Conveyor Belt Changing? At or near the surface of the Atlantic, the Gulf Stream is an important part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). It keeps Western Europe warmer than it would be otherwise. The Gulf Stream was first observed in 1513 by Ponce de Leon. It was charted, roughly, by Benjamin Franklin in the early 1770s after taking a few crossings of the Atlantic, measuring the Gulf Stream, and listening to sailors.
Climate modelers are claiming that the AMOC is the weakest it has been in 1000 years!
These claims are based on assumptions of great precision of their models for calculating deep moving water. Yet, the models have not been validated and fluid dynamics involves problems which have not been solved. Using modern instruments, researchers have developed an overturning model that includes deep circulation. Unlike the climate modelers, the developers of the deep circulation model have found no decline in the AMOC over the past 30 years. People in Western Europe need not fear that increasing CO2 is causing Europe to freeze! See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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14th ICCC Rescheduled: The 14th International Conference on Climate Change presented by The Heartland Institute has been rescheduled to October 15 to 17, 2021, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. See https://climateconference.heartland.org/
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Number of the Week: – 4 GW Short. Based on his calculations from ERCOT data, Paul Homewood writes, “… demand peaked at 68 GW on Sunday evening, Texas only has 64 GW of 24/7 dispatchable power – CCGT, coal and nuclear.” The grid was 4 GW short, and the grid operator, ERCOT, acted appropriately by instituting blackouts. Homewood continues:
“Peakers [natural gas turbines] are fine for operating for an hour or two at times of peak demand but should not be relied on for continuous operation. (In summer, for instance, demand cycles from around 45 GW at night to 65 GW late afternoon. Peakers are ideal for meeting this predictable surge in demand for an hour or two each day).
“ERCOT got itself into this mess because of a naive belief that wind power would always be available in large quantities. This was an accident waiting to happen. And it will happen again if Texas does not get at least another 10 GW of proper dispatchable capacity.” See links under Energy Issues – Texas.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Censorship
Big Tech “Deplatforming” Becomes Ever More Audacious
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 22, 2021
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Google Fires Ethics Heads for Questioning the Global Warming Impact of AI
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 23, 2021
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
“Acceleration” in Sea-Level Rise Found to Be False – An artifact of Switching Satellites
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Feb 26, 2021
“This could explain why former President Barack Obama and Bill Gates [and Al Gore] felt secure when they each bought ocean front property. They proclaim loudly that seas are rising dangerously, but like the many of climate alarmists, their actions belie their words because they know the data is badly flawed. The data shows seas are not rising at an accelerated rate.”
Atlantic’s ‘conveyer belt’ shows no sign of declining, new study shows
By Emma L. Worthington et al. (2021), Ocean Science, Via GWPF, Feb 26, 2021
Media Launches Texas Counter Attack
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Feb 23, 2021
Cold Snaps Expose Climate Science Fragility
By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Accessed Feb 26, 2021
CO2 sensitivity: the polar solution
By Alan Longhurst, Climate Etc. Feb 26, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Long post including efforts to get rid of inconvenient data.]
HadCRUT5 shows 14% more global warming since 1850 than HadCRUT4
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Feb 21, 2021
UN Security Council hears of climate threat, does nothing
Russia warns against any move to recognize warming as a threat to global security.
By Karl Mathiesen, Politico, Feb 23, 2021
John Kerry: Climate Inaction is a “Mutual Suicide Pact”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 24, 2021
Link to article: ‘Mutual suicide’: US issues stark warning on climate change
‘Our heads in the sand at our own peril,’ US envoy for climate warns, as leaders discuss security implications of global warming.
By Staff, Al Jazeera, Feb 24, 2021
Possible irreversible changes to sub-systems prior to reaching climate change tipping points
By Bob Yirka, Phys.Org, Feb 24, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points
By Christoph Heinze, et al. PNAS, Mar 2, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Like the sailors of old fearing that if they went too far from land, they would fall off the edge of the earth!]
UN calls for contraction and convergence to low living standards
By David Wojick, CFACT, Feb 23, 2021
Link to report: Making Peace With Nature: A scientific blueprint to tackle the climate, biodiversity and pollution emergencies
By Staff, UNEP, Feb 18, 2021
Texas Launches Probe of Power Companies After Blackouts
By Derrell Proctor, Power Mag, Feb 20, 2021
“Dr. Arshad Mansoor, president and CEO of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), in a statement this week noted his group recently published a technical report about the impacts of extreme weather events on the power grid. Mansoor said, ‘My heart goes out to the EPRI employees and millions of Texas residents and businesses struggling to keep their light, heat and water on during this massive winter storm, during a global pandemic. So much of our economy already rests on the electric sector, but as more of our economy becomes reliant on electricity, and our grid continues to integrate more low-carbon renewable resources, we must change the way we assess the reliability of our system.’”
[SEPP Comment: To make failure expected and acceptable?]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Bill Gates, Climate Warrior. And Super Emitter.
The billionaire’s new book, a bid to be taken seriously as a climate campaigner, has attracted the usual worshipful coverage. When will the media realize that with Gates you have to follow the money?
By Tim Schwab, The Nation, Feb 16, 2021
Future ocean warming boosts tropical rainfall extremes
Press Release by Institute for Basic Science, South Korea, Feb 22, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Increasing ENSO–rainfall variability due to changes in future tropical temperature–rainfall relationship
By Kyung-Sook Yun, et al. Nature Communications, Feb 22, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Using models that fail when tested against existing atmospheric temperature trends to predict the future for 2050-2099?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The good news on climate
By Andrew Montford, The Spectator, Feb 21, 2021
“Of course, Dr Goklany’s pointing this out will make not the slightest difference to the scientists, whose livelihoods depend on keeping politicians firm in a belief that the world is about to end.”
Not a myth: State of the Polar Bear Report shows 2020 was another good year for polar bears
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Feb 24, 2021
Link to full report: State of the Polar Bear Report 2020
By Susan Crockford, GWPF, 2021
Ross Clark: Why is there always a round of climate scaremongering after the weather changes?
By Ross Clark, The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Feb 27, 2021
“Hysteria, though, has a life of its own, far removed from proper scientific study of the climate. It is largely driven by what kind of weather we happen to have had recently. Last year, when we had floods in February, they, too, were a warning sign – in this case of much milder, wetter winters to come. This year, we had a cold spell – so now we’re doomed to a freezing future instead.”
The Absurdity of Climate Hysteria-Erl Happ
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 25, 2021
[SEPP Comment: From an Australian grape farmer and wine maker.]
A Mom’s Research (Part 2): Texas Freezing and Global Warming
By Jean Chen, The Epoch Times, Feb 21, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Recognizing that the final report coming out of the UN IPCC is a highly altered version of the physical science. The altered version promotes authoritarian government, by whatever term used to identify it. Without greenhouse gas warming, the earth would be barren. Whether human emissions of CO2 are causing dangerous warming is another issue. There is little physical evidence supporting that myth, strongly advocated by the UN.]
We told you we told you so
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 24, 2021
“In the debate over the philosophy of science, an initial emphasis on the idea that theories could be tested by confirming hypotheses was refined with more attention to ‘falsifiability’. The really compelling test was to use a theory to predict an unexpected result and then see if you could refute the prediction by gathering evidence. If not, you had at least a provisional eureka.
“In that spirit, we ask those who insist that AGW is a crisis to tell us: What evidence would persuade you that it was not? What would have to happen, or fail to happen, before you would consider abandoning the theory instead of refining it? And as a follow-up to those particularly dug in on the front lines, what would have to happen, or fail to happen, before you would consider refining the theory, admitting things were more complex than you had claimed, instead of insisting that it’s perfect as is and only rogues and fools claim otherwise?
“For instance an ice storm in Texas during what was billed as the latest, greatest hottest year ever.”
Change in US Administrations
US Sleepwalking Into Clean Energy Disaster
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 25, 2021
“Biden’s plan to install 500 million solar panels, is equivalent to 125 GW, assuming 250 watt panels. Current capacity is about 71 GW, so solar output would still remain tiny, which suggests his main target is to massively increase wind power.”
Biden returns to Obama-era greenhouse gas calculation
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 26, 2021
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
NASA Vegetation Index: Globe Continues Rapid Greening Trend, Sahara Alone Shrinks 700,000 Sq Km!
By P Gosselin, NO Tricks Zone, Feb 24, 2021
Trees like CO2?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 24, 2021
Problems in the Orthodoxy
UN: Emission reduction plans ‘fall far short’
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 26, 2021
China’s US coal imports jump 748% amid Australian trade dispute
By Robert Vergara, S & P Global, Feb 9 (?), 2021
[SEPP Comment: In the fourth quarter of 2020. Still minor at 1,019,000,000 tonnes (metric tons) compared with India at 3,574,000,000 tonnes.]
Seeking a Common Ground
Intellectual Humility vs. Passionate Certainty
By Declan Mansfield, Quadrant, Feb 27, 2021
Lessons for the States on Energy Security
By Brenda Shaffer, Real Clear Energy, Feb 23, 2021
Environmental Justice Risks from Hyper-Local Monitoring are Exaggerated
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Feb 23, 2021
Media Launches Texas Counter Attack
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Feb 23, 2021
The Learning-Impaired Managers of Bushfire Risk
By Peter Rutherford, Quadrant, Feb 23, 2021
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Large Increases in the Water Use Efficiencies of Three Tropical Forest Trees
Rahman, M., Islam, M., Gebrekirstos, A. and Bräuning, A. 2020. Disentangling the effects of atmospheric CO2 and climate on intrinsic water-use efficiency in South Asian tropical moist forest trees. Tree Physiology 40: 904-916. Feb 26, 2021
Field Studies Matter in Ocean Acidification Experiments
Foo, S.A., Koweek, D.A., Munari, M., Gambi, M.C., Byrne, M. and Caldeira, K. 2020. Responses of sea urchin larvae to field and laboratory acidification. Science of the Total Environment 723: 138003, doi.org/10.1016/j.scitoenv.2020.138003. Feb 24, 2021
“Consider, for example, if this study had only been conducted in the laboratory (as nearly all ocean acidification studies are). If that was the case, then the results would have been such that the authors would have concluded rising CO2 (i.e., ocean acidification) is detrimental to A. lixula larval growth. Yet, by incorporating field treatments into their study, the future outlook flipped from a completely negative assessment to one that is entirely positive. Oh what a difference a properly designed and implemented experiment can produce!”
One Hundred and Fifty Years of Peatland Carbon Sequestration in Southwest England
Lunt, P.H., Fyfe, R.M. and Tappin, A.D. 2019. Role of recent climate change on carbon sequestration in peatland systems. Science of the Total Environment 667: 348-358. Feb 22, 2021
Models v. Observations
‘Problem of missing ice’ finally solved by movement of the earth’s crust
A new global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80,000 years
Press Release, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Feb 23, 2021
“Their new model explains past local sea levels that are lower than today by incorporating the relative motion of the sea surface and Earth’s crust. In this way, past local sea levels that are much lower than today, can be modelled without requiring an unrealistically large global ice mass. The solid Earth motions would do the trick!”
Latest Computer Climate Models Run Almost as Hot as Before
By Ralph Alexander, Science Under Attack, Feb 22, 2021 [H/t Paul Homewood]
Model Issues
Scientists say…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 24, 2021
“Wait, how can there be basically a 50/50 split among climate scientists over the question of how they build their models, when there’s a supposed 97% consensus on everything else?”
Measurement Issues — Surface
Chinese scientists discover significant warming due to land use changes
By Pengke Shen & Shuqing Zhao, Climatic Change, Via GWPF, Feb 27, 2021
Cooling Winters…January Mean Temperatures Have Been Mysteriously Falling At A Number Of Locations
By Kirye and Pierre Gosselin, Feb 23, 2021
Changing Weather
The Extreme Temperature Changes of Texas
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Feb 25, 2021
A reader comment: “My dad grew up in Texas. He says ‘there’s nuthin between Texas and the North Pole but a bobwahr fence.’”
What’s behind the extreme cold in Texas?
By Jeff Berardelli, CBS News, Feb 20, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
[SEPP Comment: The article starts with noting that in early January, meteorologists noted a natural phenomenon called Sudden Stratospheric Warming. Then, the article degenerates into claiming wavy jet streams are caused by climate change. Rossby waves are planetary waves, naturally occur in rotating fluids. Within the Earth’s ocean and atmosphere, these waves form from the rotation of the planet. They were identified in 1939 by Carl-Gustaf Rossby. Long before significant human emissions of CO2.]
1929/1931 Droughts Caused Starvation In Australia And The US
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 26, 2021
Hugo v Laura
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 21, 2021
Virtue Signaling Doesn’t Keep People Warm
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 26, 2021
Changing Seas
‘Slow’ Atlantic Ocean may cause climate chaos–Or There Again Maybe Not!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 27, 2021
Munging The Sea Level Data
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Feb 21, 2021
Yet Another Model-Based Claim Of Anthropogenic Climate Forcing Collapses
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 25, 2021
“Consequently, the cooling in the North Atlantic can no longer be dismissed as a response to an anthropogenically-weakened AMOC.
“Something else is driving the cooling.”
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Antarctica Has Been COOLING Over The Past Quarter Century, NASA’s Surface Station Data Show
NASA mean annual temperature data going back a quarter century show no warming over Antarctica
By Kirye and Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 26, 2021
[SEPP Comment; All 13 stations evaluated are near or outside the Antarctic Circle in the seismically active West Antarctic. They do not include measurements from East Antarctica, where snow and ice are accumulating.]
New Study Finds A 79% Rise In Polar Bear Sightings Since 2005 As Their Arctic Habitat Dramatically Expands
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 22, 2021
“Research on polar bear sightings using a systematic ‘regional marine mammal sightings programme’ during 2005-2018 reveals there were 1,433 polar bears sightings from 2005-2011 compared to 2,569 during 2012-2018 around Svalbard.”
UPHEAVAL review: ‘First class geological fiction’
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Feb 24, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Crockford presents a review of her new novel.]
Lowering Standards
NOAA’s Climate Disaster Claims Are A Sham
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 20, 2021
“The best way to monitor this is by looking at GDP, not CPI, which says that $1 in 1980 is now worth $3.32:
“GDP however has risen from $2857bn in 1980, to $21433bn in 2019, which is 7.3 times as big.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
The farcical climate ‘fact-checkers’ who don’t check facts
By Andrew Montford, The Conservative Woman, Feb 25, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Not only are the neo-Puritans too busy to live the austere life they demand of others; they are too busy to check the facts in their important prophecies.]
The Media is Now Malevolent
Democracy is not served by censorship, malice, derision, and denunciation.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Feb 24, 2021
‘The windmills failed.’ Texas crisis fuels climate attacks
By Adam Aton, E&E News reporter, E & E News, Feb 17, 2021
In face of global warming, the climate scepticism of the UK press is finally starting to melt
The new green face paint of the British press is not simply a consequence of public opinion. It’s also a response to new Government policy
By Ian Burrell, iNews, Feb 21, 2021
“Such journalism has consequences. Bob Ward, of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, has often been frustrated in challenging articles by a cadre of climate sceptic writers, including Melanie Phillips and Viscount Ridley, because editors and the press regulator, Ipso, defend an op-ed columnist’s right to their point of view.”
[SEPP Comment: If skeptics produce evidence contradicting false claims, censor them.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Warming turns your face red
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 24, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
The battle over climate change’s most important number
By Bryan Walsh, Axios, Feb 17, 2021
“The bottom line: Where we set the social cost of carbon tells us how we gauge a future-focused threat — and how much we value the generations to come.”
[SEPP Comment: One sided accounting!]
Scientists explore how to recalculate the social cost of carbon
By Brooks Hays, Washington DC (UPI), Feb 19, 2021
[SEPP Comment: If it does not include the benefits of added carbon dioxide, it is like calculating rising sea levels from watching the incoming tide and ignoring the outgoing tide.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Guardian Wants To Make Ecocide An International Crime
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 25, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Prophets of Doom & the risks of communicating extreme climate forecasts
By Staff Carnegie Mellon University, Via GWPF, Feb 26, 2021
See links immediately below!
The risks of communicating extreme climate forecasts
Press Release, College of Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Feb 24, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
Link to paper: Apocalypse now? Communicating extreme forecasts
By David C. Rode; Paul S. Fischbeck, International Journal of Global Warming, Feb 8, 2021
Climate Propaganda burns out: neither hope nor doom works on audiences anymore
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 24, 2021
Attenborough twisted the truth about dying walrus: why believe him on climate change?
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Feb 23, 2021
Expanding the Orthodoxy
The Guardian: “The Paris Agreement is Failing”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 24, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Start a war to prevent ecocide?]
Questioning European Green
High electricity cost drives German high-tech industry to Asia
By Staff, GWPF, Handelsblatt & Clean Energy Wire, Feb 23, 2021
Lenk to article: Chipmakers lament high taxes and levies on electricity in Germany
By Julian Wettengel. Clean Energy Wire, Feb 23, 2021
More Green Blackouts Ahead
Editorial, The Wall Street Journal, Via GWPF, Feb 24, 2021
Only Free Market Reforms Can Repair the Damage of the Texas Blackouts
By Bill Peacock, Excellent Thought, Feb 21, 2021
The blackouts have only just begun
By Isaac Orr and Jason Hayes, The Hill, Feb 20, 2021
Green Jobs
The myth (and phony math) of ‘green’ jobs
By Duggan Flanakin, WUWT, Feb 22, 2021
Non-Green Jobs
Why Biden’s New Dawn of Net-Zero Is Looking Like a Dark Day for Labor
By Vince Bielski, RealClearInvestigations, Feb 18, 2021
“But many fossil fuel workers won’t be riding the renewable energy boom. Most new jobs will be in the construction of wind and solar farms, which is temporary work and often not in the same regions that provide fossil fuel employment. The pay is significantly lower too. The median wage for a solar installer is about $45,000 a year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“Once the wind and solar facilities are up and running, they won’t be hiring many fossil fuel workers. A coal plant employs a couple hundred workers, paying about $82,000 for a skilled operator. A renewable facility mostly runs by itself.”
Funding Issues
How Wokeness Captured Big Business
A Review of Stephen R. Soukup’s “The Dictatorship of Woke Capital”
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Books, Feb 23, 2021
Litigation Issues
The Return of Sue and Settle
By Chris Horner, WUWT, Feb 23, 2021
Link to motion: State of New York v. EPA
US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
GWPF welcomes Boris Johnson’s U-turn on carbon border taxes
Press Release, GWPF, Feb 20, 2021
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Green Homes Grant to be scrapped
Disappointment for UK homeowners waiting for affordable green home upgrades
By Lucinda Herbert, In Your Area, Feb 26, 2021 [H/t GWPF]
Energy Issues – Non-US
James Burke’s Technology Trap
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 20, 2021
“Back in the 60s, James Burke realised the utmost importance of building a foolproof grid. Sadly our leaders and bureaucrats have now lost sight of that. And the public, comfortable in the midst of all the things technology now brings them, have no idea of the perils that await.”
Summary UK Weather Dependent Renewables: 2019
The 2019 UK Weather Dependent Renewables fleet: costs and comparisons
By Ed Hoskins, His Blog, Accessed Feb 22, 2021
Blackouts in energy-rich Texas are a wake-up call for knife-edge Britain
By Ross Clark, The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Feb 21, 2021
Follow the carbon molecule
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 24, 2021
Energy Issues – Australia
John Kerry Disappointed Australia Wants to Keep Exporting Coal
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 23, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Australia will not penalize the mining industry to appease Kerry?]
Energy Issues — US
Building Back Better Means Blackouts and Fragile Grids
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, Feb 26, 2021
Will America Trade Energy Independence for China Rare Earth Extortion?
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Feb 22, 2021
Michigan Gov. Whitmer: Hoisted by her own pipeline petard!
By David Middleton, WUWT, Feb 24, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Arbitrary government edicts. See links immediately below.]
New Report Explains How Electricity Grid Works to Deliver Power to Your Home
Mackinac Center primer shows how electricity is generated, transmitted and used in Michigan
By Staff, Mackinac Center, Feb 15, 2021
Link to report: Electricity in Michigan: A Primer
By Jason Hayes, Mackinac Center, Feb 15, 2021
Texas Blackouts–Critical New Data Revealed
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 24, 2021
Great Winter Storm of 2021 Will Live in Grid History
By Kent Knutson, Power Mag, Feb 21, 2021
[SEPP Comment: The graph: “ERCOT hourly electricity by fuel, Feb. 3-16, 2021, MWh. Source: Hitachi ABB Power Grids” shows nuclear remained strong, coal and natural gas stood up when challenged; wind and solar unreliable. Dispatchable natural gas becomes more important, requiring a capacity reserve or use of combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT)..]
Terence Corcoran: When the ice storm cometh
Texas crisis will reshape energy policy-making everywhere as wind-power collapse puts renewables under scrutiny
By Terence Corcoran, Financial Post, Can, Feb 19, 2021
A great lack of wind
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 24, 2021
“One place it comes from is citizens’ wallets. In Germany, subsidies for the energy of the future cost ratepayers some 30.9 billion Euros last year, and their power bills are the most costly in Europe, on average three times as expensive as Americans’. And before saying well, the Germans are notorious for their technological incompetence, let’s take a look at the engineering fundamentals.”
[SEPP Comment: During the big freeze, were Texans happy to pay German prices for electricity?]
Elon Musk slams Texas power grid operator for being unreliable
By Elizabeth Elizalde New York Post, Feb 18, 2021
Feed Me – Uri Scrambles Gulf Coast Gas Flows, Briefly Shuts Off Texas LNG Feedgas
By Sheetal Nasta, RBN Energy Feb 23, 2021
Texas’ Renewable Fail: Remember Georgetown’s Green New Deal Too
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Feb 24, 2021
Texas’s Power Grid Disaster Is Only The Beginning
By Staff, Revolver, Feb 17, 2021
“Why would America become less First World? That’s a simple question to answer: Because America is making itself less First World.”
What Really Happened in Texas
By Becky Klein, C3, Feb 21, 2021
Washington’s Control of Energy
Pressure Grows For Meaningful US Emission Cuts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 23, 2021
“It is not widely understood how little Obama actually committed to in Paris, with a 26-28% cut from 2005 emissions by 2025. This compares to the UK’s pledge to cut by 49% from 2005 to 2030. The comparison with 1990 levels is even more stark – UK’s 55% compares to the US 14% – as US emissions rose sharply between 1990 and 2005, while in the UK they dropped:”
Return of King Coal?
Non-Coal Makes Up Half of China’s Power Capacity
By Staff, Fitch Ratings, Feb 18, 2021
[SEPP Comment: This appears nameplate capacity not actual generation. According to EIA estimates, in 2015 coal generated 72% of electricity, with hydro expected to be the second major source.
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Belgium To Shut All Nuclear Plants
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 23, 2021
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Solar panels in Sahara could boost renewable energy but damage the global climate – here’s why
By Zhengyao Lu, Lund University and Benjamin Smith, Western Sydney University, Via WUWT, Feb 22, 2021
“The panels are usually much darker than the ground they cover, so a vast expanse of solar cells will absorb a lot of additional energy and emit it as heat, affecting the climate.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Progressives vs. Ethanol (criticizing Biden)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Feb 25, 2021
Drax Drops Gas Plant Plan
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 25, 2021
“Without all of these subsidies, Drax would of course be bankrupt. Their strategy now is to continue to build the biomass side of the business, and hope to get more government money to subsidise carbon capture.”
[SEPP Comment: Burn more forests!]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Why So Many Subsidies For Electric Vehicles?
By Ben Lieberman, Inside Sources, Feb 23, 2021
Public Chargers Will Increase Driving Costs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 22, 2021
“In their Net Zero Plan, the Committee on Climate Change claimed that savings from buying and running electric cars would go part way to offsetting extra costs of decarbonisation elsewhere.
“Clearly for anybody who regularly needs to use public chargers, this is adding insult to injury.”
Health, Energy, and Climate
Torture Data For Long Enough, You Can Make It Say Anything
By Red Lawhern, ACSH, Feb 21, 2021
[SEPP Comment: An example of meaningless extrapolation from weak results.]
Other Scientific News
NASA Missions Make Unprecedented Map of Sun’s Magnetic Field
By Miles Hatfield, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Feb 19, 2021 [H/t WUWT]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Remember, The British MET Called the End of Snow Last December
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 22, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Another example of: You cannot correct my work until after I’m dead.]
Texas to boost grid resilience with more wind & solar, according to Clean Technica
By David Middleton, WUWT, Feb 22, 2021
ARTICLES
1. California’s Climate Contradictions
New evidence that green policies punish the poor and subsidize the rich.
Editorial, WSJ, Feb 26, 2021
Link to report: Designing Electricity Rates for An Equitable Energy Transition
By Severin Borenstein, et al. Energy Institute at Haas, UC Berkeley for Next 10, Accessed Feb 27, 2021
TWTW Summary: The editorial states:
“The contradictions of green energy policies are becoming more obvious in the real world, and now comes more evidence in a new study of California’s electricity rates. The policies even contradict green climate goals.
“‘California has charted an ambitious course towards decarbonizing its economy,’ the study by nonprofit Next 10 and the University of California, Berkeley Energy Institute at Haas declares. ‘At the same time, California has among the highest electricity prices in the continental U.S. These two facts create a tension: decarbonizing the economy most likely requires electrification of transportation and space and water heating, but high prices push against such a transition. High prices also have troubling implications for equity and affordability.’
“No kidding. California’s myriad green-energy subsidies and mandates are baked into electric rates, which are now about 80% higher in northern California than the national average and twice as high in San Diego.
“The state requires renewables like wind and solar to make up 60% of electricity generation by 2030. The study says renewable prices (albeit with subsidies) are now roughly the same as other power sources, but utilities signed long-term contracts with solar and wind producers years ago when prices were higher. Utilities also need backup power when it’s cloudy, which adds costs. Yet the state sometimes has to pay Arizona to take its excess solar power to avoid overloading the grid.
“And here’s the kicker: Folks with solar panels get paid for surplus power they don’t use—sometimes at two to three times the rate of wholesale power. So California pays the well-to-do to generate solar power it doesn’t need and then pays Arizona to take it.”
The editorial states that the cost of solar power is paid by middle- and low-income people without solar panels through increased utility rates. It continues:
“Yet 25% to 30% of all residential electricity is discounted for low-income customers, and ‘the cost of this subsidy is borne by all other customers,’ the study says. In other words, the middle class ends up financing rate subsidies for the poor aimed at ameliorating the higher costs of solar subsidies for the well-to-do. California’s cap-and-trade program and utility ‘public purpose programs’ like battery subsidies add several more cents per kilowatt hour.
“The study concludes that the state’s electric rates are so regressive that they could discourage people from buying electric vehicles and electrifying their homes by replacing gas-fueled appliances. Instead of raising electric rates, the study suggests making policies more progressive by increasing income taxes to promote its climate goals. So subsidize the rich, then tax them more.
“This is especially hilarious since Democratic lawmakers in Sacramento leaned on utilities to finance their climate spending so they wouldn’t have to divert general fund revenues from social welfare. But the poor are being punished nonetheless.”
****************
2. How Many Jobs Will the ‘Stimulus’ Kill?
As many as eight million by our estimate, in part by gutting many of Clinton’s successful welfare reforms.
By Casey B. Mulligan and Stephen Moore, WSJ, Feb 25, 2021
TWTW Summary: The authors from the Committee to Unleash Prosperity write:
“President Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-relief package is being sold as an effort to ‘get America back to work.’ It will do the opposite. We estimate that between five million and eight million fewer Americans will be employed over the next six months if the bill passes.
“The bill would create one of the largest expansions in government welfare benefits since the birth of the modern welfare state. In combination with December’s $900 billion package, the new bill would expand the safety net to include six months of weekly $400 bonus unemployment benefits on top of the normal weekly benefits, a $3,000-a-child tax credit, an expansion of food stamps and rental assistance, $2,000-a-person checks, and expanded health benefits.
“The Biden plan is welfare reform in reverse. It would repeal many of the successful work requirements dating to the Clinton era, and it contains only minimal requirements in exchange for its cash payments and other benefits.
“There’s more. Unlike wages and salaries earned from work, many of these benefits are tax-free. So the after-tax equivalent of receiving a paycheck versus government benefits is even more tilted against working. There is no 7.65% payroll tax deducted from an unemployment check, as there would be on a paycheck. Unemployment benefits are subject to income taxes in most of the country, but six states don’t count them as taxable income.”
After giving illustrations based on Kansas and Massachusetts, the authors continue:
“The Biden package of benefits would exceed the wages and salaries of at least 85% of households.
“We support a safety net for people who lose their jobs, but benefits this generous are unfair to those who work full-time but get paid less than those on government assistance. Even in the poorest states, such as Mississippi, a family of four with kids could collect benefits of well more than $100,000 on an annual basis.
“Supplemental unemployment-insurance benefits in the range of $400 a week would offer roughly 60% of unemployed workers more money for not working than for returning to their jobs. During the last serious recession, in 2009, the supplemental benefits under the Obama stimulus were $25 a week.
“We predicted on these pages that when the original Cares Act passed in early 2020, the added benefit would reduce employment by millions when jobs came back. Sure enough, Labor Department statistics verified that millions of jobs went unfilled last summer even as unemployment was historically high.
“What will happen this time around? The combination of benefits are likely to reduce employment by five million to seven million jobs. The $15 minimum wage, if it stays in the bill, would bring the total to more than eight million.
“Many Americans will always choose the dignity of work over government handouts. But the Biden benefit package makes going back to work a money-losing proposition. If Mr. Biden and the Democrats want to encourage employment, they should suspend payroll taxes for jobs that pay $100,000 a year or less. This would provide all workers an immediate 7.5% raise and would cut the cost to employers of hiring unemployed workers back by the same percentage. This would cost the government less than $1.9 trillion.
“President Biden’s bill will make millions more Americans dependent on checks from the government, not an employer. Could that be the point?”
‘ It was nameplate, paper capacity, mainly in wind and solar rather than dispatchable, reliable capacity mainly in coal, gas, and nuclear. ‘ but it was the fossil fuel and nuclear plant which failed, wasn’t it? If Texas had had no renewables, it would STILL have seen the failures…
And we know they were warned to winterise in 2011…
(and in the rest of the world the turbines keep running in severe cold – Spain, for example, during its recent unusual snow event)
Why do you chose to make unsupported misleadingly dishonest claims over and over?
“…but it was the fossil fuel and nuclear plant which failed, wasn’t it? ” Griff really? Ask the people on the ground who played Texas blackout Baseball: Cold facts: # players on payroll: Wind-28755, Nuclear-5153. # players in uniform: Wind-7070, Nuclear-5153. World Series batting average: Wind-0.110, Nuclear-0.800. Who do you want on your team? ERCOT winter capacity and capacity factor by fuel type Ref: (EIA Hourly Grid Monitor and S&P Global Market Intelligence).
Three months ago it appeared that this minimum was well and truly over, but not so, the February count is back where it started about three years ago.
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/SSN-3-minima.htm
“The normal intelligent practice is to use the natural gas being compressed as the energy source to drive the compressors “
Perpetual motion rediscovered.
Not really. Not all the gas is used to power the compressors as it would in a perpetual motion machine. Only a small portion of the gas flow is used to power the compressors.
Ok, just so you only do it a little bit. 😀
A few articles mention gas peakers vs combined cycle plants, and advocated for the combined cycle plants option.
These are the same plants. Peakers are just turbines. Combined cycle plants add on a system to recover some of the heat from the gas turbine exhaust to make more electricity.
Peakers are cheaper and require less maintenance. Combined cycle plants are more efficient. Either one can run for 2 hours or 200 days straight.
Investors choose which type to install based on the economic return of the extra investment on the heat recovery equipment.
There is no right or wrong decision, just different market positions.
I have that photo as well albeit with more sunshine, not with a thunderstorm; first time I caught sight of the White Rim Sandstone. I appreciate how much of an out-of-the-way place one drives and hikes to, to get that view.
“Unlike the climate modelers, the developers of the deep circulation model have found no decline in the AMOC over the past 30 years”
Studies of sediments in the Florida Straits suggest that the Gulf Stream flows faster when warmer and slower when colder. This is completely reasonable regarding the viscosity of water. The fear should be from cooling waters, as the Gulf Stream would not only slow down from friction but also deliver less heat to Western Europe. Warmer waters means a warmer Europe.
Once again, most people are looking in the wrong direction.
The NYT is complaining that the growing season is getting longer!
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/climate/climate-change-pollen-season.html
“Achoo! Climate Change Lengthening Pollen Season in U.S., Study ShowsNew research suggests that climate change is responsible for longer pollen seasons in the United States and more pollen in the air, as well.”
Instead of seeing longer growing seasons as a positive thing- the article focuses on the increase in allergies.
I don’t care much for the increase in pollen as it plugs up my sinuses- but I’ve learned to mitigate the problem and otherwise, I much approve of longer seasons, here in cold, damp Massachusetts with very high energy costs.
“Decarbonizing Industry: Low-Carbon Production of Iron and Steel”
webinar at Columbia U.
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/events-calendar/decarbonizing-industry-low-carbon-production-iron-and-steel
“Iron and steel production is one of the largest and most important commodity sectors in the global economy, accounting for more than $2.5 trillion of sales and tied to millions of jobs around the world. The 1.8 billion tons of iron and steel made every year also contribute to global warming, accounting for more than 6% of global greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. Reducing emissions from this sector is a significant challenge, made more difficult because existing facilities will run for another 30-40 years on average and half the associated emissions are tied to the chemistry of iron production. Options to replace fuel and heat sources and reduce associated byproduct emissions are limited or expensive, and potential new solutions are not yet commercially available.
The Center on Global Energy Policy will host an event to explore the findings of new peer-reviewed research published in Joule, “Low-Carbon Production of Iron & Steel: Technology Options, Economic Assessment, and Policy Options,” focused on the dynamic landscape of net-zero energy systems in heavy industry. The research examines four potential approaches to decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors like iron and steel production: zero-carbon hydrogen, biomass, electrification, and CCS; and assesses the current, likely and projected costs.”
This is a “policy” meeting, so we should not expect realistic solutions to pour forth. Undoubtedly we are speaking of the half of emissions tied to chemistry as primary iron production, that is separating iron from oxygen in ores. It is darned difficult to do this without using carbon. Yes, we can use hydrogen, which has a great affinity for oxygen, but where does the hydrogen come from? There are no primary sources. With biomass we are actually using carbon, but from a source that draws from the atmosphere — so, supposedly good sources. What about the other three approaches? Unless the electricity comes from nuclear, then CCS, electrification and hydrogen are likely to be accounting gimmickry where offsetting entries to the carbon budget are hidden somewhere. One cannot run high temperature processes involving liquid metals with intermittant electrical sources.
Truly low carbon iron production would mean recycling, but it is exceptionally difficult, and probably expensive, to produce specialty steels without primary production and relying on recycling alone.
The article linked at “Great Winter Storm of 2021 Will Live in Grid History
By Kent Knutson, Power Mag, Feb 21, 2021″ I found to be a disappointment. These best example is right here in the conclusions…
This is so carefully worded to avoid identifying any part of the problem being tied to the huge “contribution” of wind to the Ercot grid, and being counted wrongly in reserves to boot. A reliable grid comes from not “a diversified resource mix” but from having 1) identified what reserves are adequate, and 2) making certain those reserves can be counted upon. Ercot failed to do either.
Knutson’s conclusions can be counted upon to increase demands for more wind power in Texas, and more ties to wind power in other places. We are being primed to accept the wrong conclusions.