Cooking Until You Freeze

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

I keep reading that the freezing cold weather in Houston, Dallas, and the central US is the result of “global warming”.

When I heard that, my first thought was, … “Whaaa?? How would that work, that getting warmer would make it colder?”

Following up on that logic, my next thought was, “I wonder just how much colder the world would have to get in order for Houston to never freeze again?”

That sounded like a great thing to me, no more ice and snow, because I’m a tropical boy. After two decades of living on lovely warm Pacific islands, when I see the ice jumping out of my nice drink with the little umbrella in it and running around covering up the landscape, I call that “Water behaving badly!”.

So I thought I’d take a look and see just how cold the globe would have to get for the US to stay warm all the time. I figured I’d see how many days of the year it’s been freezing in Houston, to see just how much “global warming” was increasing ice and snow there. Here’s that graph:

Hmmm … doesn’t look like “global warming” has increased freezing in Houston. But undeterred, I kept looking. I figured that Dallas must show some sign of the dreaded “global warming” making icy streets and frozen pipes more common …

Well, it was starting to seem like the theory that “global warming” makes things colder wasn’t looking all that good. But I reckoned that surely, in the heart of the US this mystery phenomenon could be found. So I looked to Oklahoma City to show me the truth …

Sixty days a year below freezing? As a tropical boy, I can only say YIKES! But I digress …

Now, to be clear, this is just three cities. So I suppose it’s possible that “global warming” is making some city somewhere icier, making frost and burst pipes more common someplace … but it sure isn’t happening in Houston, Dallas, or Oklahoma City.

Here on our Northern California hillside with a tiny bit of the Pacific visible in a gap between the hills, I live in a climate anomaly. The area between about 600 to 800 feet (180 – 240 m) elevation on the western face of the first range of hills in from the ocean in this stretch of the coast is called the “Banana Belt” because it stays warm. We’re at about 700 ft elevation, and we can grow guavas and avocados on our land.

But a mere quarter-mile (half a kilometre) from my house, on the eastern side of the ridge, it routinely freezes every year. Me, I can’t recall the last time it froze where I live … go figure. The world of climate is a weird and wonderful place.

My warmest and least icy regards to all, and good will and prayers for the afflicted folks in Texas.

w.

PS—Misunderstandings are rife on the web. So when you comment, PLEASE quote the exact worlds you are referring to, so we can all understand who and what you’re discussing.

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February 19, 2021 6:08 pm

neat. do days above 100

Mr.
Reply to  billtoo
February 19, 2021 7:02 pm

where?

Reply to  Mr.
February 19, 2021 7:05 pm

same places

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  billtoo
February 19, 2021 8:21 pm

Well if you do “days above freezing” you’ll get the opposite.

Would be good to see Tmax graphs

The actual Tmax, before adjustments

tonyb
Editor
Reply to  Pat from kerbob
February 20, 2021 12:06 am

Here are the population numbers for Houston

In 1900 around 44,000 in 1940-the start of Willis’s chart 348,000, in 2013 over 2 million and according to the 2020 figure somewhere around 2.3 million.

It would be interesting to know where Houston temperatures are measured. That population increase and the urban sprawl must have some effect

Tonyb

tonyb
Editor
Reply to  tonyb
February 20, 2021 12:06 am

Sorry, here is the link

coh_hist_pop.pdf (houstontx.gov)

Sweet Old Bob
February 19, 2021 6:09 pm

Hummm …. graphs look a bit like “EPA heatwave index”

😉

Last edited 3 months ago by Sweet Old Bob
Kenji
Reply to  Sweet Old Bob
February 19, 2021 7:41 pm

Hasn’t NASA already declared this the hottest February EVER in TX?

Redge
Reply to  Kenji
February 19, 2021 11:38 pm

Not yet, but wait until temperatures are adjusted

James
Reply to  Redge
February 21, 2021 1:58 am

Adjust for what? Temperature?

John Tillman
Reply to  Kenji
February 20, 2021 8:04 am

The sun so hot I froze to death!

James
Reply to  John Tillman
February 21, 2021 2:00 am

“It rained all night the day I left,
The weather it was dry,
The sun so hot I froze to death;
Susanna, don’t you cry.”
Stephen Foster – Oh Susanna
Seems it’s been happening for a while!

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Kenji
February 20, 2021 9:06 am

Yes, and it was confirmed already by the doomsday clock handlers.

Steven Fraser
February 19, 2021 6:17 pm

Thanks for the kind wishes, Willis

February 19, 2021 6:22 pm

I had a no power situation 17 years ago due to ice and snow….a gas water heater saved me from having to leave for a day – temp was maybe 25F. I would fill all sinks and tubs and some large pots with hot water and repeat when it cooled. I see Callyfornia wants to get rid of natural gas too. There are natural gas powered electric generators for homes and businesses.

Mohatdebos
Reply to  Anti-griff
February 19, 2021 6:49 pm

Good time to invest in companies that manufacture backup electricity generators.

Ron Long
Reply to  Mohatdebos
February 20, 2021 1:43 am

Mohatdebos, I own one of the backup generators and it is a great security blanket. The generator doesn’t care what the grid problem is, heat, cold, blowing winds interacting with power lines, flood, drought, it is always there good to go. Highly recommend this security blanket, but be sure to keep gas in an approved container and change it twice a year.

Rick Kargaard
Reply to  Ron Long
February 20, 2021 8:48 am

And make sure that gas does not contain ethanol.

AndyHce
Reply to  Mohatdebos
February 20, 2021 4:03 am

Even when fossil fuels are banned? Maybe you will need to shop wood.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  AndyHce
February 20, 2021 4:44 am

But wood will be banned too!

LdB
Reply to  AndyHce
February 20, 2021 6:08 am

They tried that in the 20 and 30’s with alcohol … history teaches lessons 🙂

Doonman
Reply to  LdB
February 20, 2021 11:40 am

No it doesn’t. Alcohol was banned in the 20’s due to shrieking women and wealthy CEO’s with agendas funding them. Nothing has changed about that.

BARRY HOFFMAN
Reply to  Mohatdebos
February 20, 2021 6:44 am

Back up generators running on natural gas are a great back stop…. as long as the natural gas supply can keep up with demand. Once the demand reduces the major supply line pressures to dangerous low levels, gas supply will be rationed with rolling gas outages. And if we are headed into a trough of significant global cooling, it’s hard to imagine the infrastructure getting ahead of the curve. Remember, politicians are picking the winners and losers, not the free market.

Gunga Din
Reply to  Anti-griff
February 20, 2021 4:20 pm

Didn’t AOC promise fossil-fuel free backup generators?
All you have to do is plug them in!

John Adams
Reply to  Anti-griff
February 21, 2021 3:20 pm

Callyfornian politicians are sooo STUPID! Berkley is banning gas connections in new construction.

Tom Abbott
February 19, 2021 6:27 pm

So nothing unprecedented.

We find that a lot when we look at actual numbers.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 19, 2021 6:48 pm

when you beat the record cold by 25F, it might be unprecedented

Pflashgordon
Reply to  billtoo
February 19, 2021 9:17 pm

This cold spell in Texas set some records, but not by 25F. More like a degree or two.

Ron Long
Reply to  Pflashgordon
February 20, 2021 1:44 am

How about record cold when viewed over a weeks time?

Alan Robertson
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 4:47 am

In Oklahoma City, about 3 hours North of Dallas, local weather stations listed temps at one point as 54 degrees below average for date and either just beating, or a tie with cold record for date, set 99 years before.

FWIW, the coldest temperature ever recorded in Oklahoma was 20 below zero(F), a record set within the past 10 years.

Last edited 3 months ago by Alan Robertson
2hotel9
Reply to  Alan Robertson
February 20, 2021 5:13 am

I was at Ft Sill ’82-’84 and remember a very bad winter, lows in teens with windchill below zero. Had a large field exercise that got cancelled because of it, volunteered to remain in field to secure equipment. Was never so glad to be in a gamagoat with the engine running as that during that two weeks. Brutal.

Alan Robertson
Reply to  Alan Robertson
February 20, 2021 5:47 am

Correction/update.
The lowest temp ever recorded in Oklahoma was -31F, set in Feb., 2011, and the Monday’s previous daily record low of -15F was broken with a -22F in Kenton, OK.

It’s funny how after just a few days, my memory of what I thought I’d heard on the weather report was so different from what actually happened. That goes along with Willis’ request above, for links to actual info and data, rather than individual takes, relying on swiss cheese memory.

https://oklahoman.com/article/5682412/oklahoma-winter-weather-a-look-at-the-records-broken-so-far

Last edited 3 months ago by Alan Robertson
Lonnie E. Schubert
Reply to  Alan Robertson
February 20, 2021 8:31 pm
Tom Abbott
Reply to  Alan Robertson
February 20, 2021 5:55 am

Here in eastern Oklahoma at my house, it got down to -10F,

The old record at my house was -5F.

I think Oklahoma as a whole barely broke some cold records set back in 1905 and 1918.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 6:55 am

Historic cold in D-FW: A look at the record-breaking past few days | wfaa.com

first link in my search confirms a shattering 14 degrees. just my first link. I’ll find more for you.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 7:02 am

Monday: High of 25°, low of 8°

  • New record low temperature for Feb. 15 (old record: 38° in 1909)
  • New record cold high temperature for Feb. 15 (old record: 20° in 1909)
  • Wind chill dropped to -7°

from:
A Full List of All The Record Cold Texas Temperatures (baynews9.com)

Curious George
Reply to  billtoo
February 20, 2021 9:51 am

“New record low temperature for Feb. 15 (old record: 38° in 1909)”
New record for Feb 15? Who are you kidding?

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 7:26 am

OK. one more. numerous double digit record shatterings

Numerous records broken during this historic winter storm | KTXS

Reply to  billtoo
February 20, 2021 8:37 am

ok heck. one more. wish i could slow or pause the cine loop, but it is what it is.
look for the numerous black dots that signify “all time record low” and deep blue “monthly record low”

(Unofficial) Record-breaking temperatures across the Globe (coolwx.com)

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  billtoo
February 20, 2021 5:13 pm

When one examines the graph of the daily temperature means and extremes for a given location, a very obvious pattern emerges, and the graphs are mostly smooth curves.
However, many such graphs have irregularities that indicate that we do not have enough years of data yet, for record lows and highs for a date and location to be a very good guide to how cold or hot it might get during an extreme weather event.

IOW, if the record low for a given place is 20° for February 12th, 13th, 16th, and 17th, but 28° for the 14th, and 31° for the 15th, no one should take it as some huge surprise when it gets down to 20° on the 14th and 15th.
Similar inferences about what the actual climate norms are can be obtained by comparing nearby locations.

Beyond that, am I the only one who finds it beyond deceptive to see a headline that says “Historic low temperatures are the lowest since 1989”?
If it was colder in 1989, what exactly is historic about it?
The answer is nothing.
It is just sensationalistic headlines and story writing.
It is not journalism.
More like yellow journalism.

And speaking of yellow journalism…how about some of the headlines from the New York Times today?
Blaming what happened in Texas on Climate Change.
For everyone wondering if this event would change anything, there is the answer.
The warmistas will not let a good tragedy go to waste…they will use it to try to double down on the failed policies that contributed mightily to the worst consequences of the Arctic outbreak.

Last edited 3 months ago by Nicholas McGinley
Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  billtoo
February 20, 2021 5:31 pm

Here is the NWS graph for the daily means and extremes for Abilene.
The spiky nature of the graph shows that there is no where near enough data gathered yet for a new record to be very significant, especially if it falls within the curve delineated by existing record lows and highs.
It might take 1000 years to get a smooth curve…or it might never be smooth, if during the 1000 years, there are even more extreme events which only occur rarely at that time scale.

Abilene TX means and extrmes..PNG
Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  billtoo
February 20, 2021 1:21 am

The Coldest Night in Texas History
If you think it’s cold this week, let us tell you a story of record cold temperatures that were experienced in the past history of Texas.
February 1899 was a very cold month, thanks in part to a bitterly cold outbreak from the 11th through the 13th. In fact, nothing in the history of Texas quite compares to February 12th 1899.
Some of the coldest weather to ever hit Texas occurred on February 12th of that year. The lowest temperature ever recorded in the state occurred at Tulia in Swisher County in the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. The thermometer dropped to 23 degrees below zero. However, there were unofficial reports that were even colder. Low temperatures of 30 degrees below zero were measured that night at Wolf Creek and at a site southeast of Perryton, both in Ochiltree County in the northern Panhandle. This cold air spread throughout the state with reports of a thin layer of ice coating most of Galveston Bay.
The all-time record low temperature that was established at Tulia was tied years later when Seminole, in Gaines County in West Texas, reported a temperature of 23 degrees below zero on February 8, 1933.
Many Texas cities established all-time record low temperatures In February 1899. Below is a list of the record lows at various cities across the state.
 
Abilene………….9 below zero…set in 1947
Amarillo………..16 below zero…set in 1899
Austin…………..2 below zero…set in 1949
Beaumont……..10 degrees……set in 1906
Brownsville……..12 degrees……set in 1899
Corpus Christi…..11 degrees……set in 1899
Dallas/Fort Worth….8 below zero…set in 1899
Del Rio…………10 degrees……set in 1989
El Paso………….8 below zero…set in 1962
Galveston………..8 degrees….. Set in 1899
Houston………….5 degrees……set in 1930 and 1940
Lubbock…………17 below zero…set in 1933
Midland/Odessa…..11 below zero…set in 1985
San Angelo……….4 below zero…set in 1989
San Antonio………0 degrees……set in 1949
Waco…………….5 below zero…set in 1949 and 1899
Wichita Falls……12 below zero…set in 1947″

The Coldest Night in Texas (weather.gov)

Capture.PNG
Tom Abbott
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
February 20, 2021 6:03 am

Isn’t it odd that 1933 had one of the coldest days of the year, and yet 1933 was also one of the hottest years in US history.

How can this be? Both the hottest and the coldest?

It depends on how the jet stream is configured.

During the summer of 1933 a high pressure system hovers over the center of the US bringing very hot temperatures to all areas underneath the high-pressure dome.

Then, the high-pressure system drifts to the west and is centered over California, instead of over the center of the US, and this configuration allows for cold arctic air to come down into the central United States on the east side of the high-pressure system.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 20, 2021 4:36 pm

I think 1936 was an even more dramatic example of this.
Also during the 1930s in the US, some of the worst dust bowl years also had horrific flooding over the eastern US in the same years.
It may seem odd, but as you said, what causes one condition causes the other as well.
The average temp of the whole planet does not change by large numbers of degrees over short spans of time, but local and regional temperatures can and often do vary by many tens of degrees from average.
For both things to be true…small change in global temp but large change in regional temp, and large changes in temperature have to be counterbalanced by the opposite variance somewhere else at the same time.
Large heat waves probably mean that some other place on the globe has below average temperatures.
Similarly, if it is extremely dry over one region, someplace else is almost surely abnormally wet, or so it seems to me, and so it has been apparent when I actually look at the particulars.
The reason is that the amount of water evaporating from the surfaces of the ocean is probably constrained to be similar from one year to another, and even from one month to another and one decade to another.
The TSI does not vary much, the GAST does not vary by many degrees, and although cloudiness can and does vary a low, the fact that climatic data shows long term averages of precipitation to be stable tells me that clouds average out and the amount of moisture evaporating from the oceans does as well.
And so if there is drought over some large area, there is almost surely someplace nearby that is getting all of the rain the drought area is missing.
And that is what I have found to be the case whenever I have looked.

So it has been very far below average over a large part of North America for over a week now.
If we look we should be able to find some place or places in the northern hemisphere with temps far above normal.
How to check on that?

Here is one source, linked below.
And a quick look shows at least two places, both over oceans, where very warm air seems to be abnormally far to the north for the middle of Winter.
Looking further, China looks to be rather mild, as does Western Europe

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions (nullschool.net)

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
February 20, 2021 4:41 pm

BTW, through most of this Winter, including the last week, Florida has been very warm…hot even.
We had some frosty nights a few weeks ago, and today was cool day for the first time in over a week.
Mostly we have been in the mid 80s the past two weeks.
We will be back to 80’s by Monday, and the forecast for the next ten days keep us in the 80s into March.
March is a warm month in South Florida…it is nearly Summerlike by the end of March.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  billtoo
February 20, 2021 1:27 am

Record cold…lately.
But including periods that are not lately…

  • “10. 1951 ICE STORM – JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2, 1951 (TIE)THE TEMPERATURE IN HOUSTON DROPPED BELOW FREEZING ON JANUARY 29 AND DID NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL FEBRUARY 2. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DURING THIS 123 HOUR PERIOD WAS 28.0 DEGREES
  • 1.42 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION FELL DURING THIS COLD SPELL PRODUCING ONE OF THE WORST ICE STORMS IN CITY HISTORY RESULTING IN TREMENDOUS AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK LOSSES
  • COLLEGE STATION REMAINED BELOW FREEZING FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS AND GALVESTON REMAINED BELOW FREEZING FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS”
  • “9. ARCTIC OUTBREAKS OF DECEMBER 1983 AND 1989DECEMBER OF 1989 WAS THE COLDEST MONTH IN HISTORY FOR GALVESTON… HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION. DECEMBER OF 1983 WAS THE SECOND COLDEST MONTH FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS
  • ON DECEMBER 22 1989…HOUSTON RECEIVED 1.7 INCHES OF SNOW WHILE GALVESTON RECEIVED AN INCH; IT WAS THE LAST MEASURABLE SNOW FOR EACH LOCATION
  • COLDEST DECEMBER TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED ACROSS THE AREA. ON DECEMBER 23 1989…COLLEGE STATION HAD A LOW OF 2 DEGREES…HOUSTON HAD A LOW OF 7 DEGREES AND GALVESTON HAD A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES
  • IN 1983…HOUSTON REMAINED BELOW FREEZING FOR ALMOST FIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WHILE COLLEGE STATION HAD MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR FIVE CONSECUTIVE MORNINGS”

100 Years of Southeast Texas Weather

Records get broken…all the time.
Warm and cold records.
Record for the date, record low high temp, record for one city but not others nearby, record for most locations reporting a daily low temp record, all time record low for a town, all time record low for a state…
These all count as record lows.
And we often find even with such reports, that it only means recently.

One thing is for sure…if it happened before, it will happen again.
Everyone here knows warmistas are full of crap and making it all up.
We are in a warm period, nothing more.
Multidecadal oscillations and temperature patterns are the rule, not exceptions, particularly in mid latitudes.
And we only have sparse records going back a little over a hundred years for many places.
Who ever said the last 130 years is a representative sample of how much the weather can vary?

Last edited 3 months ago by Nicholas McGinley
Mason
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
February 20, 2021 4:27 am

Houston and Galveston both had heavy snow on December 24, 2004, Christmas Eve. Victoria Texas had 12 inches. As I recall, Galveston was near 12 inches.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Mason
February 20, 2021 6:23 am

Keep in mind that snow can happen at fairly warm temperatures, so is not really a measure of how cold it is.

Tombstone Gabby
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
February 20, 2021 5:43 pm

Who ever said the last 130 years is a representative sample of how much the weather can vary?”

Probably no one. But from the above comments I get the idea that both hot and cold records have been set across the country over that time frame with reasonably accurate measurements.

So, with the figures that are apparently available, what would a plot, by year, of the number of new “record highs” and new “record lows” across the US show. Are we currently setting more record lows per year than record highs compared to the past 130 years, or the opposite?

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  billtoo
February 20, 2021 1:45 am

A couple of years back, Illinois set a new all time record low temp.
People froze to death in their kitchens.
One guy froze to death, a college student, walking from the door of his dorm building to his car a hundred feet away.
Another guy died outside his house when he went out to see about something in his garage.
But other states did not set such records.
That same Winter, California set all time snowiest Winter records.
Locations in the desert Southwest had snow that no one could recall anything like it.
The Great Lakes were 100 percent frozen over.
The Potomac was frozen in March.
A few years before, the ocean froze as far south as Delaware and Maryland, maybe further.
Icebergs washed ashore in Mass.
The Eastern US has notably had several of the worst snowstorms on record in the past decade.
But some storms in history sound so insane we have to wonder if they are true. They probably are, and will eventually repeat.

Even in northern locations, ice storms are famous for causing widespread power outages that can effect many whole states and take months to repair.

One thing is for sure…no one ought to be surprised that it will still get cold, and it can get as cold or colder than anyone thinks likely in any place there is, and can do so at any time…although mid February is a likely time for really bad cold weather.
No seriously…it is.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
February 20, 2021 1:53 am

Recall this?
Why would anyone think that it is not getting cold anymore?
From coast to coast the list of amazing Winter severity in just few years is long.

Amazing Footage of the Atlantic Ocean Frozen Solid at Old Silver Beach in Cape Cod, Massachusetts (laughingsquid.com)

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 20, 2021 2:10 am

In fact it was less than ten years ago that cold weather knocked out power across Texas.
Arctic outbreaks hitting Texas are not rare.
Losing power over whole states due to cold is not even unheard of recently, not even in Texas:
Texas Was Warned a Decade Ago Its Grid Was Unready for Cold – Bloomberg

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
February 20, 2021 6:44 am

And Texas wasn’t the only ones having problems, the whole Southwest Power Pool, a group of 14 western States, were having rolling blackouts to one degree or another.

I would like to know if these rolling blackouts in the Southwest Power Pool were caused by increased demand alone, or did they have problems similar to Texas with conventional generation systems and with their windmills?

We know that none of their solar farms were working, since the whole area of the central US was covered by snow, but what about their windmills? Some claim windmills can be rigged so they don’t freeze up at all, and we do have situations where they work in cold weather, but is this always the case? What are the limits of windmills and cold weather?

I would like to see how well the windmills did that were located north of Oklahoma. Oklahoma’s windmills all froze, so did they freeze north of us?

George
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 20, 2021 7:30 am

I was working the DFW Metroplex from the 10th through the 18th. The low temps I encountered starting with the morning of the 11th were 29, 25, 18, 12, 5, -1, 18 and 22. Some of those could have been daily records but certainly not Winter records.
It would seem to me that the duration of cold temps combined with snowfall amounts were unusual. 1989 had similar snowfall but without the long duration cold temps. My recollection is 1903 had similar snowfall and cold temp duration.

Last edited 3 months ago by George
Latitude
February 19, 2021 6:38 pm

so far they’ve blamed everyone from Trump to Cruz…..but China gets a free pass again

Mohatdebos
February 19, 2021 6:46 pm

Cliff Mass https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/ has an excellent commentary on his weekly podcast.

Herbert
February 19, 2021 6:53 pm

Willis,
“The odds are that what we can expect as a result of all this global warming is more of a pattern of this extreme cold.”
-Dr.John Holdren -20/1/2014.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Herbert
February 20, 2021 4:47 am

War is Peace. Freedom Is Slavery. Ignorance is Strength.”

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 20, 2021 6:54 am

George Orwell tells a scary story. And it’s getting scarier because it is getting more real.

Conservatives and freedom lovers need to step up now. We have a narrow window of opportunity.

I think I just saw a new conservative star in Rachal Campos-Duffy, who hosted an hour on Fox for the last week. She did a fantastic job. Fox executives need to hire this woman and give her, her own show.

I see a lot of young conservatives like her starting to express themselves.

Rush taught us well. It’s time to pass the torch to a new generation. Defend our freedoms from the attacks of the totalitarians.

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 20, 2021 5:16 pm

Joseph:
My new T-shirt that I had made says: “Make Orwell Fiction Again”
I did not originate the saying, but it is very appropriate.
Orwell is one dead white man who should be required reading in
all Humanities & Social Science departments.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Bill Zipperer
February 21, 2021 4:04 am

Yuh, I think they’re now too busy with ethnic and feminist studies. (nothing wrong with that only there’s too much of it)

Mr.
February 19, 2021 6:55 pm

The world of climate is a weird and wonderful place.

Willis, that’s because there are dozens, if not hundreds of climates around the planet.

To talk about just one homogenous climate is arrant nonsense.

Last edited 3 months ago by Mr.
Rory Forbes
Reply to  Mr.
February 19, 2021 9:08 pm

Thank you for confirming that fact. I’ve been repeating nearly the same words for years and people seemingly ignore it as unimportant. From grade 11 geography over 60 years ago …

“Climate is the average weather of a particular location over time”

That pretty much rules out climate being global. Our planet isn’t a “black body”, either any more than CO2 is a “well mixed gas” … and all things will never be equal. We’re fed a steady diet of generally accepted dreck and meant to pretend it’s science.

George Tetley
Reply to  Mr.
February 20, 2021 1:53 am

Idiots do not know basics, two (2) thirds of our planet. Is covered by water, and at the present. time in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, sweater report is ???????

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  George Tetley
February 20, 2021 2:15 am

That is.
An interesting wa. Y of writing that you.
Have introduced us to.
I am, curious: About where you.
Learned, Pun.
Ctucation.
?

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  George Tetley
February 20, 2021 2:20 am

Oh, yeah, and I will see your Middle of the Pacific Ocean Sweater report, and Raise You a Sahara Desert Mohair Tunic exposition. With a pair of red stiletto heals.

philincalifornia
February 19, 2021 7:12 pm

Where I live (Oakland/Berkeley Hills, i.e. libtard central), apparently we believe in science. It must be true, because I read it on more than one garden sign. Thank our lucky stars that we’re only pretending to make the world colder, although the money could be better spent on more important things than the human parasites who pretend they own calculators.

Thanks Willis, great graphs..

Curious George
Reply to  philincalifornia
February 20, 2021 10:02 am

You’ve made my day, thanks.

bethan456@gmail.com
February 19, 2021 7:16 pm

You are looking at the wrong data Willis. Graph the variance/std deviation across the time period.

(You are caught once again, you will be banned yet again) SUNMOD

Last edited 3 months ago by Sunsettommy
bethan456@gmail.com
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 19, 2021 7:21 pm

You want to find out how “extreme” the deviation from average(s) is/are.

bethan456@gmail.com
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 19, 2021 7:26 pm

If the variability increases over time, you will see higher highs, and lower lows.

Komerade Cube
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 19, 2021 7:33 pm

variance from what?

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 19, 2021 8:18 pm

That was in the 1930s
Hotter highs and colder lows

fred250
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 19, 2021 8:23 pm

And if the variance DECREASES, and is affected by Urban Heat..

…. you will see what exactly we see now in the USA

Percentage of high temps DECREASING

comment image

Low temps becoming less cold in urban areas. (see Willis’s graphs for 3 large urban areas)

bethan456@gmail.com
Reply to  fred250
February 19, 2021 9:24 pm

UHI will increase the variability (variance)

fred250
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 19, 2021 10:57 pm

WRONG yet again

And NO EVIDENCE

As ALWAYS !!

Graemethecat
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 20, 2021 3:34 am

On the contrary, UHI should increase night-time lows without affecting daytime maxima, thus reducing variance.

tty
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 20, 2021 8:37 am

No. UHI raises minimum temperatures much more than maximums.

MarkW
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 20, 2021 8:55 am

Completely wrong as usual.

fred250
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 19, 2021 8:14 pm

Yes, it has been EXTREMELY COLD the last several days.

Cold records broken by WHOLE degrees or more.

Is that the point you are trying to make ???

Warming records are usually by tiny fractions of a degree in urban affected areas.

You are such a nil-educated twit…. why does Willis have to do your work for you ?

Last edited 3 months ago by fred250
Rory Forbes
Reply to  fred250
February 19, 2021 9:10 pm

Warming records are usually by tiny fractions of a degree in urban affected areas.

They’re fractions so small they fall between the margins of error for measurement. In other words they’re as likely to be – as they are +.

bethan456@gmail.com
Reply to  fred250
February 19, 2021 9:26 pm

I don’t have to do any work, because Willis is not looking at the proper statistic. PS I will not call you a degrading name even if you are wrong about fractions of a degree.

fred250
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 19, 2021 10:58 pm

Highlighting the FACT that you are INCAPABLE.

Thanks, but you have made that blatantly obvious. !

fred250
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 19, 2021 11:01 pm

“even if you are wrong about fractions of a degree.”

.

Except… I’m NOT WRONG.

You poor little sock….. just waiting for a hand so you can become a muppet. !

Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 20, 2021 12:01 am

Beth @ phishing trap

You’re quirky use of the word “proper” suggests you’re from England, somewhere south? Proper job!

philincalifornia
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 20, 2021 3:02 am

I think what you meant was “I don’t have to do any work, because I’m incapable of it ……”

I think you might have a credibility issue on here dude.

MarkW
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 20, 2021 8:57 am

Once again, bethan just declares that she is right.
She’s highly insulted that anyone would ask her to back up her claims.

Gunga Din
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 20, 2021 5:03 pm

Define “average” temps. Over what time span? Since records were kept? A 30 year block of time that changes as time passes?
What do you mean by “average” temps?

Mr.
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 19, 2021 9:52 pm

LOL you’re so polite Willis.
Anthony would have said words to the effect of “f – off Bethan”
(But his blog – his rules. Gotta work with that.)

geo
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 12:16 am

We all are a work, Willis. I enjoy your posts and especially your responses.

eyesonu
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 6:24 am

As a ‘reformed cowboy’ you still kick ass’s but some are too stupid to know that they had theirs’s kicked!

Abolition Man
Reply to  eyesonu
February 20, 2021 11:00 am

As a ‘reformed cowboy’ and retired carpenter I have found that many creatures (mules, horses, burros, apprentices, libtards) really need a pop with a 2X4 to get their attention!
I’m not sure that the bethantroll has the IQ to qualify for idiocy!
Thanks, Willis, for all your clear, concise and easily understood posts

philincalifornia
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 20, 2021 2:58 am

I’m sure this dealt with below, but why don’t you graph it, idiot?

eyesonu
Reply to  bethan456@gmail.com
February 20, 2021 7:07 am

bethan,

Willis just ‘handed you your ass’ yet again. I’m beginning to think you have it (your ass) well greased and fitted with a quick release for the frequency you have it handed to you!

Joel O'Bryan
February 19, 2021 7:16 pm

“So I thought I’d take a look circle back and see just how cold the globe would have to get for the US to stay warm all the time.”

Get with the lingo Willis.

John Shotsky
February 19, 2021 7:24 pm

Thanks for confirming what logical people already know – warming does not cause cooling. COOLING causes cooling. Displaced arctic air can definitely cause cooling. But not warming.

tonyb
Editor
Reply to  John Shotsky
February 20, 2021 12:22 am

Dear John Shotsky

Thank you for your application to join the Met Office climate team

Unfortunately all the answers you gave were incorrect. Warming causes cooling. Extreme warming caused by man creates extreme cooling. These are well known scientific facts

I regret to inform you that we will not therefore be offering you a job in the climate modelling team at the Met office.

We do have some vacancies for cleaners though.

Yours

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  tonyb
February 20, 2021 5:17 pm

Hey, if the position comes with a key to the server room, he should take it!

commieBob
February 19, 2021 7:47 pm

War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Global warming is cooling.

I stumbled over this dandy definition of delusions:

Delusions are false judgments held with extraordinary conviction and subjective certainty, resistant to contrary experience and counter-argument, whose content is impossible-or at least not verifiable. link

Someone suffering from a delusion will go to any lengths to maintain their delusion. You know the alarmists are delusional when they will try to use absolutely anything to prove CAGW.

I wish I could find the link but it was a quip by Bill Clinton that Al Gore would argue that the sun rising in the east is proof of global warming.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  commieBob
February 19, 2021 9:12 pm

I’m still waiting for ANYONE to prove AGW … never mind CAGW. Hell. I don’t even see any evidence for it.

Paul
Reply to  commieBob
February 20, 2021 4:04 pm

Somehow when reading anything about how climate change needs to be prevented my mind wanders to the book 1984 by George Orwell.

Mr. Lee
February 19, 2021 7:48 pm

R values would have been nice.

Mr. Lee
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 3:19 pm

thank you.

February 19, 2021 7:51 pm

So your graphs in fact show that global warming is a fact?

Days below freezing are in fact falling…

Did you really mean to show that?

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Leo Smith
February 19, 2021 8:15 pm

Have you not been following the debate.

The “warming” is supposedly the global average temperature but what it hides is that nights and winters are slightly warmer
Exactly what the graphs show.

It is not hotter like people think, which is why they use the average.

If Willis performs the same analysis for days above 100 it will also show decrease.

Do you think less days below freezing is bad?

This is discussed daily around here

Last edited 3 months ago by Pat from kerbob
fred250
Reply to  Leo Smith
February 19, 2021 8:18 pm

Notice the places chosen are large, expanding URBAN centers.

What it is showing is the UHI effect.

Days above 100C and above 95C are also falling in the US.

comment image

comment image

Last edited 3 months ago by fred250
MattSt
Reply to  fred250
February 20, 2021 8:25 am

I’m thinking you meant degrees F Fred..

MarkW
Reply to  MattSt
February 20, 2021 9:00 am

I sure hope so.

Gunga Din
Reply to  MarkW
February 20, 2021 5:17 pm

It’d be a pretty flat graph if meant days over 212F!

(Fred, please forgive us for having fun with typos.)

fred250
Reply to  Gunga Din
February 20, 2021 9:47 pm

You’s all forgiven

But I won’t forget… }-]

fred250
Reply to  MattSt
February 20, 2021 4:32 pm

D’OH !! yes, “degrees F”

Streetcred
February 19, 2021 7:58 pm

Facebook continues to censor the distribution of WUWT articles in Australia. WUWT is not an Australian news site.

fred250
Reply to  Streetcred
February 19, 2021 8:20 pm

Don’t use Farcebook…. it is a haven for PETTY, ultra-left virtue-seekers.

LdB
Reply to  Streetcred
February 20, 2021 6:18 am

The response being mooted by Australia authorities is to block all banking transactions to these companies like is done for terror groups. That will take their Australian advertising revenue down to zero and probably force them to pull out of Australia.

Mike Dubrasich
February 19, 2021 8:06 pm

A fog-belter, eh? Artichokes? Bougainvilleas? Date palms? Prolly not.

I don’t blame you for not complaining about some minuscule warmth. The sun came out briefly today in the Willamette Valley for the first time this year. We jumped up to 50°F. I almost peeled off my outer layer. But by lunch time it was raining again, and we lost 10 degrees in a minute and a half.

Still there is hope that Spring will arrive eventually. Warmer is better. I like it warm, the garden likes it warm, the cat likes it warm, and the dog is always happy no matter what.

I wonder why so many people dread and despise warmth. Why else install windmills in the Petroleum Capitol of the World except to virtue gesture wildly that they are doing their phony part to lower the global thermostat? As if warmth was something to fear and loath. Mass insanity isn’t pretty, and woke is a joke. Try Awakening instead, people. Get with Warm.

Pat from kerbob
February 19, 2021 8:24 pm

Willis, are these trends mostly just a confirmation of Roy Spencer’s recent posts on UHI?
These are big and ever growing cities. The trend follows population density that he pointed out?

Can you do same analysis but for three rural Texas/Oklahoma sites with little or no UHI?

rah
February 19, 2021 8:40 pm

Meanwhile according to DMI Arctic Sea Ice extent is greater than it has been in 6 years.
Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut (dmi.dk)

Antarctic just had the coldest January since 1978 and the Southern Hemisphere is having the coolest summer it has had in almost 10 years.
Antarctica set to coldest January since 1978, Southern Hemisphere hasn´t been so cold almost 10 years – mkweather

John Kerry and Al Gore along with various air head Hollywood types have crawled out of the woodwork now that the democrats are once again in charge and are flying around in their private jets preaching the same old “climate change” Gospel that if we don’t do some radical things we’re all gonna die. Biden has had the US rejoin the Paris Climate Accords despite Germany and France failing to meet their declared CO2 reduction goals by considerable margins while the US has out performed both in CO2 production and economic growth.

It is not and never has been about saving humanity from itself. It is, and always has been about control and domination, just like “gun control”.

have crawled back out of the wood work since the democrats have control

richard moore
Reply to  rah
February 19, 2021 9:51 pm

Resolute Canada, 75 N , Mostly clear-

Mason
Reply to  rah
February 20, 2021 4:41 am

Kerry just pronounced that we only have 9 years, here we go again. PS, Thanks Willis as always for the analytical reasoning!

robert sjoberg
Reply to  Mason
February 20, 2021 9:05 am

9 years until we move the goalposts again.

Abolition Man
Reply to  robert sjoberg
February 20, 2021 11:09 am

Nah, they’ve installed wheels on the goalposts now so they can be moved at moments notice! The climate alarmists will NEVER admit that their fanatical, religious delusions are not real; their whole universe revolves around their belief system, no facts necessary!

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  robert sjoberg
February 20, 2021 12:51 pm

New location of goalposts:

Moving the goal posts.jpg
Gunga Din
Reply to  robert sjoberg
February 20, 2021 5:26 pm

They’ve blown through so many goalpost you’d think they would have scored something by now!

February 19, 2021 8:48 pm

Well, all this is complicated. Requires decisions.
So 21 years ago decided to move to the beach in Fort Lauderdale.
Somehow, my desire to visit my original townhome in Chicagoland lessens each year since. Something about warm/cold.

Pflashgordon
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 19, 2021 9:29 pm

Rud, you helped illustrate the truism with your feet. Warm, good; cold, bad. If a degree or two of global warming is such an existential crisis according to the warmunists, then explain that to northern retirees who voluntarily and excitedly experience 10-15C of warming in moving south to Florida, South Texas or the Gulf Coast.

rah
Reply to  Pflashgordon
February 19, 2021 9:46 pm

And they aren’t all Americans either. Quite a few Canadians retire to Florida.

fred250
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 20, 2021 1:32 am

But Rud, aren’t you getting flooded out by sea level rise every day ???

MarkW
Reply to  fred250
February 20, 2021 9:03 am

Didn’t bethan assure us that Miami is already under water?

BobM
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 20, 2021 5:36 pm

“Something about warm/cold.”

… and possibly the murder rate?

Wim Röst
February 19, 2021 9:25 pm

Willis, your first graphic (the green one for Houston, closest to the Caribbean) is telling two stories. First: up to the mid-eighties there is a rising number of days below freezing. Then, from the beginning of the nineties we see a new trend: starting very low, there is an upward trend in days below freezing. Keep in mind the number of freezing days that 2021 will add to the graphic.
 
What we in fact see is changing weather patterns. Wavy vortexes over the US enable cold outbreaks southward. From the nineties a northward warm wave over the East of the US and over the West of the Atlantic was dominant and a large quantity of warmer than normal water has been pushed into the Arctic. This pattern enforced itself by the low pressure areas that could develop above the NE Pacific/Arctic (Barents Sea). That development of low pressure areas was stimulated by melting sea ice. Ice-free seas were freeing more water vapor above water that enabled the air just above the water to become 20 degrees warmer than the air above the ice before. Warmer air and more water vapor in that warmer air caused more low pressure areas to develop. The low pressure areas further battered the remaining sea ice and mixed the cold fresher water on the upside with the warmer and saltier subsurface Atlantic water below: further surface warming and less sea ice were the results. The pattern of diminishing sea ice over decades (the time needed for warmer water to go round the Arctic) is well visible in the graphics of Arctic sea ice content. See the decades in the following graphic:
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
 
Right now the warmer than normal subsurface Atlantic water reached East Siberia: the currents below the ice are from the north of Norway eastward along the northern Siberian coast and then follow their way around the Arctic to Alaska. In the summer of last year we saw the changing wind patterns that followed the progressing warm waters: warm and dry air was sucked in all the way from the Sahara over Arabia and over the dry Asian grasslands to the North of East Siberia, causing many wildfires over Siberia and extreme summer heat. A change in wind pattern.
 
Over Western Europe in recent years more high pressure areas could build up, starting in early summer and progressing to the end of the winter. From the eighties, the Western European winters were characterized by a continuous warm south-western flow. Low pressure areas above the Barents Sea sucked in the warm air from Cape Hatteras to the Arctic, taking with the flow extra low pressure areas to the North. But the winter pattern changed bit by bit.
 
This year (2021) the first time the low pressure areas were not strong enough to prevent the build up of a High Pressure system over Scandinavia in wintertime. A high pressure area over Scandinavia / the British isles in early February (just before the cold wave was visiting Texas) caused eastern winds in Western Europe: cold and dry winds from the East created the downward jump in temperatures well visible in the graphic below. Shortly after this happened, the cold outbreak in the US became visible.
 
https://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/klimatologie/maand-en-seizoensoverzichten/lopende_maand
 
Wind patterns in the mid-latitudes are changing. For Western Europe and the US this means that in the next years more cold outbreaks probably will follow. Arctic sea ice will stabilize and grow again, be it on a somewhat higher temperature level than 60-70 years ago. Until the next big step downward will become visible – hopefully not. We won’t like a next Little Ice Age, although changes in obliquity and long-term ocean cooling (since 5000-6000 years) suggest that this further cooling is what is going to happen in the centuries to come. Colder times show larger variations in global temperatures because the influence of ice and snow (reflecting solar) is growing. More wavy patterns in wind flow, at least on the time scale of thousands of years belong to a cooling trend. Understanding what was happening in the Arctic last decades is key: a higher variability with periods of stronger warming followed by periods of stronger cooling. And in Texas the city of Houston which is closest to the Caribbean shows most directly the change in wind patterns over oceans. It will be interesting to follow Houston’s winter temperatures in the decades to come.

rah
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 19, 2021 9:56 pm

No that can’t be! Texas will soon face driest conditions of last 1,000 years | NSF – National Science Foundation

Of course they are some of the same Bozos that in 2011 that Texas was in a “perma-drought”, shortly there after as it not uncommon Texas had a deluge and there was massive flooding in Houston. Fact is that Texas is wetter than now than anyone alive can remember. Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (noaa.gov)

rah
Reply to  rah
February 19, 2021 10:21 pm

Sorry about the errors in the post above. Time to go to bed. Been a very long day and I’m about cross eyed with fatigue.

Wim Röst
Reply to  rah
February 19, 2021 10:32 pm

rah: “Fact is that Texas is wetter than now than anyone alive can remember.”

Looking at your graphic it is clear that the colder periods show drier years and much higher variability in rainfall. With that in mind the near future for Texas might be drier on average and much more variable both in rainfall and in temperatures, being less affected from the warmer and more humid south and more from the drier and colder north. This will happen when indeed there is the change in the medium term trend (60-70 year cycle) that I think to see.

Wim Röst
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 19, 2021 11:16 pm

Willis: “What units are used to measure the “waviness” of vortices? People keep talking about the waviness of the jet streams and of vortices, but how is that measured?”

WR: I am often looking to patterns of anomalous temperatures like found on climatereanalyzer: https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/?mdl_id=gfs&dm_id=world-ced&wm_id=t2anom

Starting at the Arctic polar circle you can draw lines between the red and the blue areas over the mid-latitudes. Right now those lines show a very wavy pattern and that pattern coincides with winds from respectively the South and the North. So for me the air movements at the surface are showing the waviness, well reflected in temperature anomalies.

About the cause of the larger/minor waviness I can’t say anything. The ‘chain of events’ as you call it very well is causing a shift in pressure areas. They can grow or diminish in strength and/or position. Relatively small changes in oceans cause other patterns of wind flows. Looking at your graphics Houston is showing more differences in winter temperatures than the more inland cities of Dallas and Oklahoma City.

The Antarctic is incredibly stable, causing a constant high pressure area over its high and ice cold ice sheet with ice cold winds flowing over the surface on all sides from the south pole into the direction of the equator, keeping temperatures low and stable over the southern high latitudes. What is called ‘global’ warming needs to come from the Arctic region. That is where ‘global’ temperature changes originate. Oceans do the work, stimulated by low pressure areas that are dependent on warm water that is evaporating water vapor. When the ‘winter train’ of northward directed low pressure areas over the North Atlantic stops, there is room for outbreaks of colder air from the north. As a kid in the fifties in wintertime we always followed the weather forecasts to hear whether there was a high pressure area developing over Scandinavia. If so, we could prepare our skates: cold winds from the cold land in the east would follow.

The winter of 1956 followed a pattern like we saw this year in Western Europe: a rather sudden ice-cold period in February. In the fifties more cold winters followed, culminating in the three months of winter cold of 1963 over Holland and over most of Western Europe. Last week looking over a frozen Dutch Braassemermeer I remembered the skating tours over that lake long ago and I remembered the 1963 parking place for cars on the lake itself. I would not be surprised to see in the coming years more variable and on average colder winter weather.

Last edited 3 months ago by Wim Röst
saveenergy
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 12:31 am

The SI unit of wave measurement is the ‘Sombrero’

comment image

The scale range is … S, M, L, XL, XXL.

Derived from –
‘The Mexican Wave’
&
‘Mexican immigrants come in waves, wearing Sombreros’ .

So the science is settled.

Reply to  saveenergy
February 20, 2021 4:03 am

The conclusion is the same – time to move south!

Doonman
Reply to  saveenergy
February 20, 2021 1:18 pm

Best post of the year so far. “Hats off” to the newest SI unit.

Wim Röst
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 5:06 am

Willis: ” you absolutely need to say how much wavier they are

WR: OK, now I understand better that you want to quantify the waviness exactly. Looking at your graphics above, the cold from the north could reach Oklahoma City, Dallas and Houston in varying degrees. For Dallas and Oklahoma City there is a relatively small decrease in cold days during the last decades. Cold waves still could reach them relatively well. But not so for Houston. From the mid-eighties rather abruptly freezing days became rare. With your three graphics you yourself showed how deeply south the cold fronts reached. Probably the number of days with frost or the number of freezing days (the whole day below zero Celsius) is a good indication of the waviness during winter. For the warm waves northward another temperature can be chosen for the more northward locations. While northward flows of warm air often result in precipitation it could be that the latitude the rain fronts know to reach (for a certain month) also is a good indication of waviness.

Last edited 3 months ago by Wim Röst
Wim Röst
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 5:33 am

Willis: ” you absolutely need to say how much wavier they are

WR(2). A second option is to take an isotherm map as a basis.
Isotherms are lines that connect all places with the same average temperature for a specific period (month or season or year). For locations north and south of the isotherm it can be checked how often in a specific period a cold or warm wave of air passes that isotherm, reflected in the temperatures of the locations respectively south or north of the isotherm. Of course also the extent (to how far north or south) the waves pass the isotherm can be checked.

Steve Reddish
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 5:01 pm

Willis, jet stream is usually marked by a line circling the globe, yes? That line is displaying the path of the winds with the highest speed, or the center of the wind stream. You could take the lattitude of most northerly point in the loop compared to the most southerly point, noting the difference as the value of the waviness, expressed in degrees of lattitude. If there are multiple waves, the number of waves could be a qualifier.

Alan Robertson
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 21, 2021 11:33 am

One measurement method is to count the warmunist press releases touting polar vortex waviness, as proof that colder is the new hotter.

Reply to  Wim Röst
February 20, 2021 12:24 am

Willis, Wim

There are parameters that define departure from circular shape. One (not perfect but at least a start) might be eccentricity e, the parameter defining an ellipse. This is essentially the ratio of the distance between the foci of the ellipse and the major axis. (A circle has zero eccentricity since the foci are at the center and not separate entities).

Or, you could use a parameter the “un-shape index”, here the un-circle index. This is the ratio of the perimeter of the shape to the perimeter of the area-equivalent circle. This parameter would show nicely both the dumbel-like distension of, or even the splitting in two of them by polar vortex.

C59CEBC1-C33F-4BD8-B9A4-D32F4D26D6E0.jpeg
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 7:21 am

It’s OK for a square to have an un-circle index of 1.3. It sort of means 30% different to a circle, in terms of perimeter to area ratio. OK the parameter does not give any information about shape specifically, just the degree of complexity and difference from a circle (the circle has the shortest perimeter to bound its area). In practice there are not many shapes of the polar vortex – circle, dumbell or blobby L shape or two circles. Un-circle index would give a reasonable parameterisation of the degree of distortion of the PV.

fred250
Reply to  Hatter Eggburn
February 20, 2021 1:35 am
Reply to  fred250
February 20, 2021 7:23 am

Yes – could still be approximated as an ellipse.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 12:57 pm

“… how anyone can claim that such “waviness” is either increasing or decre(a)sing.”

Well, for that I have the answer:
Get government funded climate research grant.
Make up whatever you want.
Lather, rinse, repeat.

Wim Röst
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 1:22 pm

Willis: “I’m still in mystery how this can be quantified, or how anyone can claim that such “waviness” is either increasing or decreasing.”

WR: Looking at the pictures I see more clearly what you mean. There is another problem: the elevation where things happen. ‘What’ happens ‘where’ is always my central question and it is unclear for me what is continuously happening in the three-dimensional field. Besides it is difficult to discover what is ‘the cause’ and what is ‘the result’

For that reason I myself concentrate on the effects of what is happening at the surface. When there are more cold outbreaks southward or warm outbreaks northward I think to see a rise or slowdown in waviness but to be honest I don’t have a clue about what is happening exactly on high(er) elevations (upper troposphere, stratosphere).

Still it feels more safe to look at high pressure and low pressure patterns than to rely on ‘vortexes’. The development of patterns of high and low pressure is well explaining what is happening at the surface. Knowing the pressure patterns gives a good indication for the wind direction (and strength) to expect and wind is what transports the flows of warm and cold air. The surface flows are observable wavier this winter. China (Peking for example) earlier had its cold outbreaks.

It is interesting to have a look at a map of global seasonal patterns of high and low pressure areas. They are quite different for summer and winter. And they are never the same, being [an important] part of the continuously adapting systems of oceans and atmosphere and their mutual influence.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 19, 2021 11:27 pm

Great discussion. Dunno answer. But perhaps we can look at past ‘polar vortex’ episodes for an indication. Have begun that research.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 1:23 am

Ultimately waviness is expressed by the curl partial differential of calculus

fred250
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 9:49 pm

Sort of CHAOTIC loops. !

Gary Pearse
February 19, 2021 10:24 pm

When you have an outflow of frigid air funneled down onto the plains from the Arctic through Canada, you have to ask yourself how this can be caused by global warming when said Catastrophic AGW is touted by climate wroughters to cause Arctic Amplification – a warming rate that is 3 times that of the purported average global rate.

The only way a sane person could be convinced that this is possible would be if the global rate of warming was so tiny that the triple heating of the Arctic would not be palpable.

Certainly, after galloping catastrophic anthropo global warming since 1850, it should not be possible to break cold records by several degrees in Chicago (low minus 30s C) and a number of other places in the Midwest a couple of winters ago. Nor would sharks frozen solid in the sea off Massachusets be washing up on the beaches. Nor would Gulf of Mexico turtles suffering hypothermia need to be rescued and warmed back to life.

In over 80 years, I never heard of such events occurring before.

https://news.sky.com/story/frozen-sharks-wash-up-on-cape-cod-beaches-as-winter-storm-hits-us-east-coast-11196155

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Gary Pearse
February 20, 2021 8:44 am

We had aligators in southern Oklahoma that were found in several rivers, and they were frozen half-way in and half-way out of the ice. Their heads and necks were up out of the ice but the rest of their bodies were below the ice.

The aligators go into a type of hibernation phase during conditions like this and apparently recover as soon as it warms up. I guess it helps to have their heads out of the water when they freeze. 🙂

Peta of Newark
February 19, 2021 11:04 pm

I think we’ve re-discovered the Urban Heat Island
Would that be why the temperature graphs are all heading south = the cities are all getting larger
What about graphs of heat or energy content in the dirt, both the cities themselves and the land all around.
What I’m really fishing for is the soil moisture content and how it has changed over the last century
But, me being just a little devious, I’m really really wanting figures for Soil Organic Content.

Banana Belt seems entirely crazy, until, you get your head (and yourself ideally) around the Foehn Effect.
But you know already Shirley, from Santa Ana not very least

A large area of North East Scotland might count as a banana belt and seems quite insane considering how far north it is and that its up against The North Sea – a perishingly cold lump of water. Good place for growing all sorts of stuff you’d never thought possible

It was the craic about the ‘peeping ocean’ that said everything – you have a ‘particular arrangement’ of hills and mountainsides that cause the prevailing wind to reverse, in very localised spots.
Willis, you’ve got a Helm Wind
Are there ‘funny’ looking clouds sometimes?

Knowing weather in place: the Helm Wind of Cross Fell
I could do peeping, due South east ish, from my old place and see Cross Fell, its quite tall. Distinctive.

A typical Cumbrian July or August, I could have been cold damp raining foggy for days/week on end.
I could drive 10 miles due East, just over the top of the Pennines and be into Northumberland.
Combine harvesters, tractors and trailers would be moving around under crystal-clear blue skies. Apart from the clouds of dust they themselves were creating
Dust was virtually unknown in Cumbria

Last edited 3 months ago by Peta of Newark
Petit_Barde
February 20, 2021 12:25 am

Come on,

everyone knows that when you cook pasta in the kitchen, it starts to snow and freeze in the living room.

WXcycles
Reply to  Petit_Barde
February 20, 2021 1:21 am

When you turn on the hot water tap it can still be cold sometimes, but that depends on if you use wind or solar power. Thus natural variability is still involved … maybe a bit of natural-selection too.

February 20, 2021 12:30 am

I say it is getting cooler. Globally.

AntonyIndia
February 20, 2021 12:36 am

On coastal micro climate: here on India’s south east coast we found that the sea ‘s temperature influence can be felt up to 1.3 miles inland on light sloping (<100 ft) rural terrain.

Nice and warm and the sea shielding against extremes. Do stay in the shadow here though…

griff
February 20, 2021 1:03 am

Well if you prefer, its the result of climate change.

Which where I live results in flooding and heavier rainfall and more storms and only the occasional heatwave. And also the occasional sub zero event.

fred250
Reply to  griff
February 20, 2021 4:37 pm

Poor griff..

Its ACDS metal affliction still makes it think this is something other than NATURAL VARIABILITY

STILL WAITING for any evidence of global “climate change” due to human CO2

Remain in your ACDS abyss, griff, you will continue to be an LYING ignorant non-entity.

Loydo
February 20, 2021 1:26 am

“I keep reading that the freezing cold weather in Houston, Dallas, and the central US is the result of “global warming”.

“it was starting to seem like the theory that “global warming” makes things colder wasn’t looking all that good”

Come on Willis, don’t make out you don’t know the prediction is about more variation; warm and cool, not just cooler. Do one of your fabled analysis of whether say Chicago’s or Dallas’s temperature has become statistically more or less variable over time.

Last edited 3 months ago by Loydo
fred250
Reply to  Loydo
February 20, 2021 1:55 am

Come on loy-dodo, don’t make out that the so-called “predictions” cover such a huge range of outcomes……

… as to be TOTALLY MEANINGLESS.

PRODUCE something other than evidence-free gobbledy-goop !

You haven’t got the ability to do ANY of that, though, have you Loy-dodo

Stil the DESPERATION and DENIAL as you see your little fantasy AGW CULTISM crashing down around you.

Have you found any empirical evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2 yet ??????

Or are you still a total abyss…..

Here’s yet another chance for you to FAIL PRODUCE EVIDENCE..

1… Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?

2… In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human released CO2 causation?

Jim D
Reply to  Loydo
February 20, 2021 2:09 am

What prediction?

2hotel9
Reply to  Jim D
February 20, 2021 3:59 am

That loydo will post some warmunista drivel. So far? 100% accurate.

Reply to  Loydo
February 20, 2021 4:01 am

Typically according to climate history there is increased variation amplitude in temperature during periods of cooling, not warming.

So retreating from “global warming” and moving to “climate change” as more variation, is effectively an admission that climate has turned to cooling.

We’re both the warming and the cooling, the reduced and the increased variation, caused by CO2?

Is there anything that is not caused by CO2?

Loydo
Reply to  Hatter Eggburn
February 20, 2021 4:47 am

“there is increased variation amplitude in temperature during periods of cooling, not warming.”

Do you have a link to any supporting evidence for this? I’m not saying you aren’t correct but its a bit of a blanket statement, which cooling periods and how much variablity for example?

fred250
Reply to  Loydo
February 20, 2021 4:39 pm

ROFLMAO

Loy-dodo asking for evidence.. that is hilarious 🙂

You remain an EVIDENCE-FREE, ACDS mental patient, loy-dodo. !!

Loydo
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 12:48 pm

Thanks for your response. Re the allegation I apologise I didn’t intend it to be offensive.

“that getting warmer would make it colder?”

” just how much colder the world would have to get in order for Houston to never freeze again?”

“just how cold the globe would have to get for the US to stay warm all the time”

I meant it to be frank and blunt, but not offensive. Yes I know you were trying to be funny. Disputing the severity of AGW is one thing, but I suggest giving succour to ‘coolism’ is hardly the path to better understanding.

Back on the topic of temperature variation caused by polar jet waviness, recent research strongly disputes the idea:

“The well-publicised idea that Arctic warming is leading to a wavier jet stream just does not hold up to scrutiny.
“With the benefit of ten more years of data and model experiments, we find no evidence of long-term changes in waviness despite on-going Arctic warming.”
Professor Screen, an Associate Professor in Climate Science at Exeter.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200219152855.htm

Loydo
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
February 20, 2021 5:52 pm

Ok I thought I did: “recent research strongly disputes the idea”. I totally accept your findings in regard to the cities you looked at. I haven’t looked myself so I have no reason to dispute them.

I had accepted the chain of causation viz: a a warmer pole > weaker gradient > wavier jet > more warm intrusions north and cold ones south. But as posted above, even that seems not to be the case, at least as far as a wavier jet goes.

fred250
Reply to  Loydo
February 20, 2021 4:46 pm

“Disputing the severity of AGW is one thing, but I suggest giving succour to ‘coolism’ is hardly the path to better understanding.”

.

There is NO EVIDENCE of any warming by human cause except UHI and minor land changes. But you know that, don’t you loy-dodo

You will NEVER understand that the world is starting to COOL, your deep-seated ACDS will not allow your feeble brain-washed mind to accept REALITY.

Giving “succour” to ACDS based “warmism” shows you have no understanding whatsoever.

Pretending that you have even the slightest understanding of anything to do with climate, is just plain WRONG.

You make it patently obvious that you are TOTALLY CLUELESS

You can’t even support the farce of warming by atmospheric CO2 with anything except empty , mindless rhetoric and blathering.

Last edited 3 months ago by fred250
fred250
Reply to  Loydo
February 20, 2021 4:56 pm

The Arctic is NOT warming except from the two major El Nino events

In Fact, between the 1979/80 major El Nino, the Arctic actually COOLED

comment image

And since 2000, after the effect of the 1998 major El Nino, ZERO trend until the 2015 El Nino/Big Blob event. ( gradually subsiding)

comment image

So yes, Arctic warming has not caused the jet stream waviness

In fact the wavy jet stream was evident in 1977 when NH was near its coldest since the 1940 peak

comment image

fred250
Reply to  Loydo
February 20, 2021 5:09 pm

“Back on the topic of temperature variation caused by polar jet waviness, recent research strongly disputes the idea:

“The well-publicised idea that Arctic warming is leading to a wavier jet stream just does not hold up to scrutiny.”

.

You do realise those are opposite causation statements, don’t you loy-dodo !

Lrp
Reply to  Loydo
February 20, 2021 10:03 am

It’s weather variability and trying to sell it as climate variability is fraudulent

Steen Rasmussen
February 20, 2021 3:32 am

Willis I am always excited to read you essays!

Following some of the comments to this thread I bumped into the Danish Meteorolgical Institute DMI which had an article why we were seening a very cold period from mid jan to mid feb 2021 here in Denmark. Their explanation in my translation:
Up high in the atmosphere over Arctic in the layer called stratosphere, you find the polar vortex. If the polar vortex is weakened it can result in hugh changes in the weather down beyond, which results in a longer cold period.

The stratosphere is the layer of the atmosphere which in the polar regions starts in heights of 6-8 km and continues up until 50 km. In the stratosphere in the polar regions there is every winter created a vortex called the polar vortex. The polar vortex creates a permanent wind system where strong winds are blowing typical from west to east in a approximate circular way around the north pole.

blob:https://wattsupwiththat.com/89a65f38-f082-4d82-b536-720384ca5afb
A strong (normal) arctic polar vortex to left and a suddenly stratospheric warming to the right.

When the polar vortex weakens, the strong winds in the height decreases and the stratosphere is warmed up. Sometimes the wind in the height can even change it’s direction and start to blow from east to west and in combination we see a huge warming of the stratosphere – up till 60C in a few days. This effect is called the suddenly stratospheric warming (SSW), and in a few weeks this can create dramatically weather changes over the nordic countries.
The weakening of the polar vortex is however not clearly understood.
The change of the wind directions and the following strong warming have impact on the lower laying jet streams and SSW sometimes creates a stationary high pressure north to east of Denmark and ice cold air will cover an area of a huge part of the northern Europe”.

Although the strong La Nina could have impact on the SSW, I do speculate if what is really happening here is a effect of the electromagnetic effect from the Sun – an effect IPPC now consider to take into account – an effect that could totally change our view of the energy balance of the Earth and may show that the Sun is the actual regulator of the climate on Earth.
kind regards
SteenR

Curious George
Reply to  Steen Rasmussen
February 20, 2021 10:32 am

“When the polar vortex weakens, the strong winds in the height decreases and the stratosphere is warmed up.” It should also turn pink, but it does not for reasons not yet researched 🙂

BTW, your link does not work.

Steen Rasmussen
Reply to  Curious George
February 21, 2021 1:58 pm

The imbedded pictures was in the up load process changed to the mysterious link
I will just try to add them once more thencomment image
They can be found at http://www.dmi.dk

2hotel9
February 20, 2021 4:02 am

Water behaving badly, love that one! Here in western PA we got up to freezing yesterday and everything was drippydrippy. Now, at 15F, all that water is behaving badly by icing over roads and bridges and sidewalks and stairs. Bad water, no biscuit!

wel
February 20, 2021 5:14 am

We all know windmills are an effective weapon in the fight against global warming. It’s just Texan’s being Texan’s went too big on the wind power thing. Wind was pulling 40% of load the day before the big freeze..

Trying to Play Nice
Reply to  wel
February 20, 2021 6:02 am

It doesn’t sound like windmills were very effective in Texas. If they went too big on wind power, shouldn’t it be real hot right now? I guess CAGW doesn’t live within the confines of mathematical logic.

wel
Reply to  Trying to Play Nice
February 20, 2021 6:53 am

it was supposed to be a joke. more wind power,less co2, less warming, but texas over did it resulting in big freeze

Tom Abbott
Reply to  wel
February 20, 2021 9:54 am

Wind and solar make up about 25 percent of Texas electricty production.

At the time of the cold front hitting Texas, the windmills were providing about 43 percent of the electricity consumed, so we have to assume that the Texas grid was producing at less than the maximum possible.

And, I assume that windmill electrons were given priority over electrons from other generation facilities, as part of the virtue signalling deal to promote wind and solar, and that is why windmills were providing 43 percent of the electricity being used at the time.

That’s my guess.

Last edited 3 months ago by Tom Abbott
John
February 20, 2021 5:33 am

Heard on a BBC news report about Texas today: “If there’s one thing the last few days prove, it’s that the US must act on climate change”.

Doonman
Reply to  John
February 20, 2021 1:31 pm

We already outlawed 100 watt incandescent light bulbs. What more could the BBC want?

Bruce Cobb
February 20, 2021 5:57 am

Pity the poor climate researcher, toiling tirelessly to come up with new climate concepts such as a “wavier polar vortex”, showing that it does in fact exist, and is “worsened by climate change” aka “global warming” to climatesplain™ the weather – I mean “climate events. Think of what a difficult enough time they have of it, without us sitting here, continually mocking them, and taking potshots at them. We should be ashamed.

04.gif
fred250
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 20, 2021 4:58 pm

Hardly a “new” concept !

comment image

Ferdberple
February 20, 2021 7:18 am

“It’s funny how after just a few days, my memory of what I thought I’d heard on the weather report was so different from what actually happened.”
=======
The power of adjustments (spin).

Editor
February 20, 2021 11:46 am

So I suppose it’s possible that “global warming” is making some city somewhere icier, making frost and burst pipes more common someplace … but it sure isn’t happening in Houston, Dallas, or Oklahoma City.

Willis, I sit between Houston and Dallas, and I can tell you, you are correct. No global warming here, but I’d sure like some right now. I moved away from Kansas in 1974, but it followed me down here this month. I want it to go back!

P.S. I can tell you aren’t a “climate scientist,” you look at real observations.

February 20, 2021 12:19 pm

(^_^) … “PS—Misunderstandings are rife on the web. So when you comment, PLEASE quote the exact worlds you are referring to, so we can all understand who and what you’re discussing.”

The word, “worlds”, is intentional, right? If not, and it’s a typo, it shouldn’t be a typo — it’s right on, because some people are not on THIS world.

February 20, 2021 1:43 pm

Headline on fake news.

“<b>Texas Crisis Exposes a Vulnerability to Climate Change</b>”

It was snow and low temperatures you idiots!

fred250
Reply to  Roger Surf
February 20, 2021 5:00 pm

Yes, but due to rampant ACDS, any variability in the WEATHER anywhere is now part of “climate change” and means that mum, or dad, can no longer drive the kids to school in the SUV. !

Last edited 3 months ago by fred250
Ghowe
February 20, 2021 6:11 pm

I think the sombrero analogy is pretty good guess for the “waviness” of the jet stream, but the circularity is problematic, as things don’t always “circle back” per se, if I may.
Now, my frito theory doesn’t have this problem….

fred250
Reply to  Ghowe
February 20, 2021 9:52 pm

A sombrero after a hard night on the town ! :-p

February 25, 2021 5:55 pm

I love Willis’s articles

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