Reposted from Polar Bear Science
Posted on September 10, 2020 | This is a very good short paper on the current state of the Covid-19 epidemic by two UK respiratory disease researchers that is well worth the read, with a good coverage of the problems with models and PCR testing that is encouraging some governments to renew the panic and restrictions initiated back in March.
Understanding Covid-19 is pertinent to this blog topic, not least because virtually all polar bear field research has been shut down for the year worldwide, with no indications restrictions will be lifted over the next few months: an entire year’s worth of data will be missing for all kinds of studies. Small Arctic communities that traditionally provided essential logistical support for these studies also tend to have a high proportion of vulnerable citizens and so remain closed to the outside world. Restrictions on travel – the border between the US and Canada remains closed to all but essential traffic – and limits on size of gatherings mean that the government response to this illness has severely impacted my public activities. Have a look at this important referenced essay: I’ve copied the Executive Summary below.
Executive Summary
Evidence presented in this paper indicates that the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic as an event in the UK is essentially complete, with ongoing and anticipated challenges well within the capacity of a normalised NHS to cope. The virus infection has passed through the bulk of the population as a result of wholly natural processes and evidence indicates that in the UK and other heavily infected European countries the spread of the virus has been all but halted by a substantial reduction in the susceptible population. This has occurred because the level of infection required to introduce enough immunity into the population to reduce the reproduction number (R) permanently below 1 occurred at markedly lower infection rates and loss of life than had been initially anticipated. The evidence presented in this paper indicates that there should be no expectation of a large scale ‘second wave’ with smaller localised outbreaks when the virus contacts pockets of previously uninfected populations.
Current mass testing using the PCR test is inappropriate in its current form. If it is to continue, then results and reporting should be refined to meet the gold standard of testing methodology to give clinicians improved information so that they are able to make appropriate clinical decisions. Positive tests should be confirmed by testing a second sample and all positive tests should be reported along with the Cycle Threshold (Ct) obtained during the test to aid assessment of a patient’s viral load.
It is recommended that a greater focus be placed on evidence-based medicine rather than highly sensitive theoretical modelling based on assumptions and unknowns. Current evidence allows for a greatly improved understanding of positive infectious patients and using the evidence to improve measurements and understanding can lead to sensitive measurements of active cases to give a more accurate warning of escalating cases and potential issues and outbreaks.
Read the entire paper here.
Every Covid article should come with a disclaimer…
China lied about it….the WHO lied about China lying….they both tried to cover it up….and then tried to cover up the fact they covered it up with more lies
Not True you do not cry epidemic because a few cases have appeared but here is the timeline showing WHO published warning on 5th January
December 31st 2019 Chinese authorities confirmed they were treating dozens of cases of pneumonia of an unknown cause. Days laters researchers in China identified a new virus that had infected dozens of people. There was no evidence that the virus was spread by humans.
China contacts the WHO and informs them of ‘cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology’ detected in Wuhan
no evidence for human to human spread and who informed
1 January 2020 WHO had set up the IMST (Incident Management Support Team) across the three levels of the organization: headquarters, regional headquarters and country level, putting the organization on an emergency footing for dealing with the outbreak.
January 2nd 2020 Central Hospital of Wuhan banned its staff from discussing the disease publicly or recording them using text or image that can be used as evidence
Chinese damage limitation – not called for
4 January 2020 WHO reported on social media that there was a cluster of pneumonia cases – with no deaths – in Wuhan, Hubei province.
5 January 2020 WHO published their first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.
It’s almost like you too basically everything word-for-word from https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/27-04-2020-who-timeline—covid-19 but somehow missed posting a link or providing quotations.
“…5 January 2020 WHO published their first Disease Outbreak News on the new virus. This is a flagship technical publication to the scientific and public health community as well as global media. It contained a risk assessment and advice, and reported on what China had told the organization about the status of patients and the public health response on the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan…”
The “risk assessment and advice” said “WHO does not recommend any specific measures for travelers” and “WHO advises against the application of any travel or trade restrictions on China based on the current information available on this event.”
https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unkown-cause-china/en/
Sounded really serious, lol.
The same people who play the “acute respiratory illness and pneumonia outbreaks happen and there was no cause for concern” card are also playing the “WHO says it was deadly serious for the very start” card.
“December 31st 2019 Chinese authorities confirmed they were treating dozens of cases of pneumonia of an unknown cause. “
Hahaha coming from a Ghalfrunt who promotes drinking bleach.
Derg”Hahaha coming from a Ghalfrunt who promotes drinking bleach”
He wasn’t the only one….
No kidding, you probably did it too.
Over 250,000 people a year die in China from pneumonia. Perhaps a new pollutant caused an unknown exosome to appear in the bodies of those exposed to a new airborne man-made toxin as the bodies were fighting it and “spewing out” the destroyed toxin as an exosome. This results in PCR testing finding an exosome we, perhaps, had not discovered in the past.
PCR cannot find disease. If the inventor, Kerry Mullis (who won the Nobel Prize in biochemistry for this tool invention) were still alive he would argue the same.
Lastly, NO ONE (yes, no one) has isolated the “virus” (that is: separated it from everything else). So, we cannot even prove there is a virus, only the leftovers of something which has been attacking people — and even then, we have not done the studies to show these “leftovers” are the same “leftovers” in each person.
https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/09/10/covid-diagnostic-test-worst-test-ever-devised/
But, let’s not forget to remember that the CIA “confirmed” this came from a Chinese lab, too. Just like the CIA spread the rumour of the Soviets “spreading HIV” in the 80’s and 90’s.
Though I disagree with the President in most of the reaction to “covid” since about mid-April, he never even suggested anyone should drink bleach — what a bunch of rubbish.
Regards
AK in VT
It was actually the MSM that created the term ‘drinking bleach’ after the press conference when the president discussed UV treatment research, then later referred to the UV treatment as ‘the disinfectant’. Which it is.
The CPC are congenital liars. Plus Occam’s Razor test tells us that the Wuhan “flu” leaked from a Chinese virus lab. The virus origin in the “wet market” explanation was pathetic but many were happy to accept the “dog ate my homework” explanation rather than face down the Chinese dragon.
Ghalfrunt:
You’ve never successfully addressed the obvious objection to your argument:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/24/democrats-green-new-deal-would-make-us-reliance-on-china-much-worse/#comment-3039141
and the follow-up:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/24/democrats-green-new-deal-would-make-us-reliance-on-china-much-worse/#comment-3039529
Game, set, match. Thanks sycomputing.
Thanks to you, Jim!
Latitude September 14, 2020 at 2:29 pm
“Every Covid article should come with a disclaimer…
China lied about it….the WHO lied about China lying….they both tried to cover it up….and then tried to cover up the fact they covered it up with more lies.”
And don’t stop there… then Trump lied about how dangerous it was even though he had been told it was “the biggest threat to his presidency.” One big mass of lies it seems.
And Simon lied that Trump didn’t close the borders…and then it became Trump didn’t do it fast enough and then…well its Simon. Lying is what Simon does.
Derg
“Lying is what Simon does.”
Even if your statement is correct…. I am not the president of the United States who is now responsible for the deaths of 200,000 people.
You are a sick individual Simon. This crisis starts and ends with China.
Liar
Hey Simon
Do you watch CBC? Because here in Canada all they can talk about is trump.
Of course, our federal health minister admitted they knew about this from Taiwan in December, she said this on TV, yet they did nothing until March except call out anyone as racist who talked about wuflu
And that is AOk but trump is evil?
At least he did something
Just don’t mention how effective the HCQ cocktail is in early treatment, so the Mosh and Nicholas don’t drive by with their “studies” of how it doesn’t work.
Forget HCQ, something far more effective has been used and it is even cheaper and more plentiful – Vitamin D.
I’ve known since April that vitamin D is a prophylactic, now it turns out a direct high dose of the active hormone (end pathway of the ingested vitamin) calcitriol is extremely effective, to the point we might as well call it a cure. It has the same mechanism as both HCQ and Ivermectin, but it’s far more effective.
It’s actually calcifediol, the 2nd stage prehormone, that they treated with.
Pretty amazing results in that study.
Though since both groups got the HcQ it is possible the vitamin D plus HCQ has synergy
It needs to be replicated.
If you convert the doses described in the paper to IU, they’re huge. Since calcifediol is several times as effective as straight vitamin D3, you’d have trouble eating enough tablets. 🙂
Steven Mosher pointed us at this Israeli study which confirms what we already knew, ie. vitamin D deficiency is correlated with coronavirus infection. The paper says the acquisition liquid vitamin D supplements are correlated with a decrease in coronavirus infection and tablet with an increase. Anyway, it sounds like normal vitamin D doses might not do much if you become infected.
The other thing to note is that all the Spanish study patients received HCQ and azithromycin. Based on the study, we don’t know for sure if calcifediol would work by itself.
With regard to the bit about liquid vs. tablet vitamin D supplements, I strongly suspect there are lurking variables. In any event, you have to take enough supplementary vitamin D to raise its concentration in your blood to a useful level. You might want to have a chat with your doctor.
If the Spanish study is replicated, I think that’s it for the pandemic. The consequences of an infection would be reduced to no more serious than a bad cold. We wouldn’t even have to worry about a vaccine.
Pending replication of the Spanish study, I am cautiously jumping-up-and-down excited.
I do not know if they are using any of the “good” stuff in Canada. I doubt it. As far as I know they are not even into Vitamin D. There is some supposed study now but they do not expect results until year end ( when covid will be done). Some are excited about a vaccine (Trudeau).
Vaccine is just prophylactic for the continued lockdowns
The idea of it is what counts for our idiot PM
I’m confused by the droplet vs tablet cohort portion of that study. They datamined all of the information from a health database and the entire study is model based. Who is buying their supplements from a pharmacy counter where such data is kept? The only way it would make sense that tablet form D supplements are associated with a higher risk of catching SARS-CoV-2 is if the vitamin is not being absorbed because they didn’t take it with a meal containing a sufficient amount of fat, which they would then probably stop taking them altogether because that would lead to bloating and they’d blame the supplements. Drops don’t have that complication because they are already dissolved in olive oil, not to mention typically a higher dose.
There are many things not to mention, among them:
Also don’t mention that anyone under the age of 40 is at pretty well zero risk of death, and from age 40 to 60 at slightly elevated risk from zero. Children are at zero risk of death and transmission. It seems that a large proportion of the many government ‘dashboards’ don’t show breakdown of death by age, they concentrate on ‘cases’.
Positive test of infection is NOT a ‘case’. Test results are an interesting number, but basically useless because most infections are defeated by the immune system without intervention, or even the knowledge of the infected person.
Cases would be infections requiring treatment.
Anyway, this thing was over by July. Especially don’t mention that. Infections are up somewhat, but deaths are still minimal, as they have been for over a couple of months. Every chart everywhere shows it.
snip
Are deaths following like the 1st wave?
This is the point.
snip
MODS This is a bogus user name stolen from me.
PLEASE REMOVE IT
TY
Look at the world of meter numbers for France and Deaths.
2 months ago the uptick started, infections per day is higher than March and April.
No uptick in deaths.
That’s exactly what the studies above are trying to say.
You can see the same in Spain.
Which means what?
Today’s ONS figures for England & Wales (w/e Sept 4) show Covid deaths down 22% on the previous week (78 from 101) and all-cause deaths 1,400 down, 16% below the five year average, and — except for Christmas week, which appears to be an outlier most years — the lowest all-cause weekly figure since June 2012!
Make of that what you will.
The paper this links to is well worth reading even for the scientific semi-illiterate like me.
Deaths in USA not good compared to the EU:
Are you the Ghalfrunt that tells people to ingest bleach?
Shame on you.
Derg if I quote the POTUS about bleach then how can you claim I promoted bleach injestion?
You must be suggesting that the POTUS promoted bleach ingestion
No you clearly told people to take bleach. I didn’t take it out of context.
The problem is how different jurisdictions tally coronavirus deaths. I prefer excess deaths as being more straightforward. link
At the end of August, America had an excess death rate of -20%. That means 20% fewer deaths than would be predicted by the five year average.
The upcoming election means the OrangeManBad folks will do anything to make him look worse. Bad news for them, it looks like vitamin D therapy will effectively end the pandemic.
Hi Bob,
I agree – Excess Deaths is the most credible measure of the Covid-19 illness.
The problem with your cited paper is the authors (Giattino et al, 2020) have used the wrong timing, which greatly biases the result. That paper is at:
ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
Typically, Excess Winter Mortality is measured during the Flu Season – which in the UK is total deaths from 1Dec2019 to 31Mar2020, compared to half the total deaths for the adjacent four months. Some countries use a longer flu season but you get the idea. We published a paper on this subject in 2015, to counter all the false nonsense about “We’re all gonna die from global warming!”. We revised our paper to include the huge excellent study by Gasparrini et al::
COLD WEATHER KILLS 20 TIMES AS MANY PEOPLE AS HOT WEATHER
by Joseph d’Aleo and Allan MacRae, September 4, 2015
friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf
Peak flu deaths usually occur around New Year’s Day but peak Covid-19 deaths occurred several months later – typically mid to end April 2020 in North America and Europe, where Covid-19 deaths were typically near-zero by end-August 2020.
By starting the total deaths data on 1Jan2020, your cited study makes Covid-19 look much worse than it actually was. I wrote about this fraud here:
wattsupwiththat.com/2020/09/13/covid-19-evidence-shows-that-transmission-by-schoolchildren-is-low/#comment-3083365
Spot the BIG LIE from the German government:
eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.26.2001214?emailalert=true#html_fulltext
“Figure 2 shows the weekly and cumulative pooled excess all-cause mortality estimates observed during the COVID-19 pandemic in comparison to the previous 4 years, from week 1 to week 18. At the peak level of mortality, in week 14, an excess of 35,802 deaths across all ages was estimated, of which 32,815 (92%) were persons aged ≥ 65 years. In comparison, the highest excess mortality in any week during the previous 4 years reached 16,165 deaths (all ages) in week 2 in 2017, i.e. during the severe 2016/17 influenza season [11]”
(Figure 2A).
Most flu’s start in early fall and end in late spring, and flu deaths are typically counted between those dates. Here is the German government fraud:
The above Figure 2 analysis starts counting flu deaths on January 1, 2020, greatly decreasing the number of flu deaths from seasons other than 2019/2020.
The real situation is as depicted in Figure 1 – the area under the curve shows total deaths from all causes:
Covid-19 was no more dangerous than the seasonal flus of 2014/15, 2016/17 and 2017/18 that nobody remembers. The full-Gulag lockdown for Covid-19 was a huge error and probably a fraud.
Regards, Allan
Derg and Ghalfrunt
The bleach hoax is easily falsified.
If that’s the best the Democrats can come up with they’re dog meat in November.
Ghalfrunt has been spinning that lie for quite a while here.
ghalfrunt, I’m not sure how they count covid deaths in Europe, but in the USA, the CDC totally dropped the ball with their guidance to count deaths from covid, deaths with covid, and deaths presenting covid-like symptoms but no formal test to confirm all in the total covid death count. It’s pathetic what the CDC did. Maybe that’s a cause of the discrepancy.
Horace
No one dies from the flu so the CDC wild guesses flu deaths with a computer model. The death certificate will not say flu directly as the cayse of death. It in nor one of the 110 CDC causes of death.
Ghalfrunt:
Your comment’s a bit confusing. You say, “[d]eaths in USA not good compared to the EU,” but then you post a graphic comparing deaths/million between the two.
In actuality, total deaths aren’t far off at all. If we include the UK, total deaths in the EU are 184,284 compared to the US at 199,148.
Austria: 757
Belgium: 9927
Bulgaria: 729
Croatia: 230
Cyprus: 22
Czechia: 465
Denmark: 633
Estonia: 64
Finland: 339
France: 30,950
Germany: 9,437
Greece: 310
Hungary: 646
Ireland: 1,784
Italy: 35,624
Latvia: 35
Lithuania: 87
Luxembourg: 124
Malta: 16
Netherlands: 6,258
Poland: 2,227
Portugal: 1,875
Romania: 4,236
Slovakia: 38
Slovenia: 135
Spain: 29,848
Sweden: 5,851
UK: 41,637
EU: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
US: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Your deaths/million are lower at +/- 359 (184,284 deaths / 513,262,603 population) compared to 602 US, but our results are skewed by the failure of some 14 Democrat progressive run states (i.e., the top of the list when sorted by deaths/million) to effectively manage the outbreak.
E.g., the top 6 states for deaths/million are governed by Democrat progressives and account for almost twice (lower scale: 1015) to over 3 times (highest scale: 1819) the average deaths/million (602) of the other 44. The top two states are NJ (Governor: Phil “Most Deaths Per Million” Murphy) at 1819 and NY (Governor: Andrew “Senior Slayer” Cuomo) at 1703. Their despicable, chaotic failure to manage the pandemic combined with other blue states in the top ranks for death/million skews that statistic upward along with total deaths.
Once again using the example in NY, there’s 33,128 deaths attributable to the “Senior Slayer” Cuomo alone. That’s about twice the next highest. Add the highest state for deaths/million (New Jersey) and its total deaths (2nd highest in the nation) at 16,158, that’s 49,286 or about 1/4 of total deaths in the US from those two states alone.
I think we’d be doing pretty well if it weren’t for Democrat progressive liberal politicians who don’t seem to care for the poor unsuspecting slobs who’ve been foolish enough to elect them to power.
The State of Ohio has been waiting more than 21 days for that lagging indicator to actually climb, to any relevant degree. It remains at 2% of CASES, and we know that cases means “positive tests”, and we know there are “presumed COVID” deaths in that list. How far does this death indicator lag, more than a month?
Did you take the time to read whole article, you should, you will learn a lot.
Why don’t you link to EXACTLY what you are talking about instead of just mentioning the name of a site? You are wrong but it’s hard to know why if you don’t say what you are basing your claims on.
Deaths lag by about 2 weeks. The rise in UK “cases” which are not cases ( ie patients becoming ill ) but PCR positives. PCR results have been rising in UK, Spain and France for about 2 months, still not increase in deaths.
The article explains exactly what is going on. I suggest you follow Dr Crockford’s recommendation and READ it before making misinformed comments here.
MODS PLEASE REMOVE THIS BOGUS USER NAME STOLEN FROM ME.
The important things to follow are the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) and the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate).
As PCR tests are deployed, the number of cases will go up. This informs us of the denominator number (deaths/thousand). If case numbers go up yet death numbers do not, the CFR will go down. We end up with a Case-demic second wave, not an epidemic second wave. It is looking like the epidemic is over.
An educational video:
https://youtu.be/8UvFhIFzaac
Correct – thank you Richard G.
Death AND hospitalization rates are down and dropping.
And that without universal practice of the inexpensive methods shown in numerous studies to decrease severity of Cov19.
The problem with these highly sensitive PCR tests, as I understand it, is that they magnify many times over what can be fragments of dead virus and not necessary viable live virus. So you get someone being counted as a “case” who actually had an asymptomatic case weeks or months ago. People panic because so much testing is being done and new “cases” turned up, without any meaningful comparison to the number of tests being done or the nature of the “infection”. Innumeracy is rampant.
Do they double count cases ? So what if I test positive one week and then positive next week, is this counted as 2 cases ?
This is reported in some states, such as Arizona. If you take a test 10 days in a row and each is positive, this is being reported as 10 news cases at some hospitals.
I’m sure some of this scam is motivated by getting more funds from the Feds.
Yup, in a nutshell. Unfortunately the nuts are running the show.
Correction: a few infections and a large number of false positive PCR test results.
It depends what they count.
In my country a positive PRC-test counts as being infected without an follow-up test to confirm. Lot to do about it, but works great in statistics.
With no rise at IC’s and death rate (lagging 2 weeks) you should be really wander what’s going on what that monster virus – not so deadly after all?
It’s better to focus on total mortality rates of excess deaths (euromomo.com) as being a better indicator.
Just assume our governments will not change their lines as the much awaited vaccins are already paid ahead.
They are not infections or cases. They are positive test results. Only about 1/5 of them are symptomatic (the symptom list being extensive and ambiguous). Further, the number of cycles used for the PCR test is so absurdly high (40-46), that the test is essentially meaningless. Using this many cycles guarantess many false positives, likely flags RNA fragments from previous infection successfully fought off by the immune system and gives absolutely no idea of viral load, infection or infectiousness.
Also, the number of cycles used by each lab is not revealed, making comparisons similarly meaningless.
Oh yes, and they’re doing many more tests. Why do they never publish the proportion of tests that are positive (flat from mid Jun to end Aug, awaiting data for past 2 weeks)?
Calling all positive tests “cases” is a lie.
Calling all positive tests “infections” is highly dubious.
Don’t panic.
I’ve not panicked since 1-31-2020 … when MY President shut down China travel. I’ve been careful, and cautious … but otherwise …my life is relatively unchanged. I did read voraciously on the topic, and adopted a D3 vitamin regimen … as most elderly should.
I’ve never felt better … and go everywhere I want … except my local barber of 40 years who has been prevented from working, by our FAKE leader – Gavin Newsom
Similar here, where the FAKE leader is Jay Inslee.
Take a multi-pill with Zinc, also.
John – Jay ‘Existential Threat’ Inslee can’t see the forest for the trees (and forest floor fuel buildup). His spittle-flinging rants (now muted by his constant wearing of a ‘face-diaper’) are an embarrassment to our once-great State of Washington, and when he is allowed to rant on National television, to our Nation as a whole.
As for me, since late February in addition to my regular multi-vit regimen that always included a D3 supplement, I’ve been imbibing a zinc tab and washing it all down with tonic water (for the minuscule amount of quinine). Just turned 62 in August, my take is these additions to my normal supplement regimen can’t hurt (as long as I don’t over-dose myself) and from what I’ve read have a more than an average chance of supporting beneficial outcomes for my overall health.
I’m sure the multi-headed hydra that are Griff, or the weirdo-LoyD’oh will chime in on this subject presently….
Stay safe,
Regards,
MCR
Michael:
You can say that again. Thank goodness our WA golf courses are open and we can get some semblance of sanity here, especially at the 19th hole where almost everybody spits at that Communist stooge Inslee!
In my field, anything that you “amplified” to that extent would be useless, since noise is amplified just as much as anything else. Once again, it’s remarkable that no upper limit on cycles was set in the first place, and that lab technicians did not set one themselves. Another example of a cavalier attitude to data, (presumed positives, slipshod testing, requests to add unrelated deaths to the tally, “rewarding” hospitals for treating cases and deaths, grouping tests, reporting every positive test as a “case”) which indicates to me there was never much clinical fear of this disease.
It really is the AGW of disease research.
An interesting article on PCR cycle threshold by the CEBM team at Oxford: https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/11QlCxf6WLVDpyeGi-Y5gN7YeP9zynac8f6IazSP_FfM/mobilebasic
If I want to try to get inside the collective mind of our elected officials and health-care bureaucrats, they see the increase in “new” “cases” as a direct path to increased hospitalizations and deaths that will make the explosive Second Wave. But with the recent increase in cases, we have yet to see a matching increase in deaths. OK, deaths is a lagging indicator. But deaths should catch up in about, what, 2-3 weeks? So by the first week of October we will know if the Second Wave is real.
My guess is the wave will fizzle and they’ll have to cook-up a new scare, but time will tell.
Shouldn’t we see hospitalizations related to Covid increasing now?
Hospitalizations are increasing because people are going back in and hospitals are only dedicating so many beds for The Covid. They want more profitable surgeries.
Check the official UK criteria for “COVID admissions.” It’s a positive test up to 2 weeks before admission, or whilst in hospital. All patients are (or should be) tested on admission for any cause.
Therefore rate of “COVID admissions” is as unrelated to COVID symptoms as the test results are, and as the deaths are (which are also derived from a positive COVID test within 28 days, not the cause of death).
Second wave of admissions and deaths therefore follows from increased testing alone.
As for the tests, I gather that HMG quietly slipped in a directive to obtain a second test to reduce false positives. But since testing capacity is now so compromised that many people are unable to obtain even one test, a false positive casedemic has no chance of being detected or corrected.
Hospital in Boston has ONE COVID patient all week.
Sowe need to now open up everything to normal operating levels. 60% of restaurants and bars in the US will never reopen. Even here in Texas, the bars are still closed. Direct targeting of an individual industry for shut down by the govt is obscene. Life savings evaporate. Bankruptcy ruining credit. Foreclosure of homes. This madness must end.
Casinos are opened. Churches are closed.
Shows us which god has the most followers.
Who’s making the call? I mean, I live in a state with a Republican governor too, and I swear he’s (mostly) acting like a Democrat with regard to certian things. Who’s telling these Republican governors what to shut down and what not to shut down? Are they all going on the advice of their DHS directors? What is the political affiliation of these DHS directors? IDK.
Oh, I’ve been enlightened. I now know why Arizona is handling the Coronavirus like it is. Here is the bio page of of our DHS director, Cara M. Christ. Note the last paragraph… explains everything.
https://directorsblog.health.azdhs.gov/about-the-director/
Texas’ Gov Abbott shut down bars and one other oddly specific business – tube rental companies for floating the rivers in central Texas. I strongly suspect that one of Abbott’s friends owns property adjacent to the Guadalupe River where crowds of folks floating on tubes have parties. Folks love owning riverfront property, but hate the floaters.
You can bring your own tube, but no company can rent you one.
Sounds like there’s enough people floating in the river to bother the riverfront property owners. If that’s true then why aren’t such parties an example of large crowds? Doesn’t seem like a mere few would make much difference for noise, etc.
Just curious.
There can be large crowds floating the rivers on summer days and weekends where weather permits. Most are young and have most likely exposed each other before arriving. Yes, they will definitely bother the riverfront property owners, but the same can be said for beachgoers bothering beachfront property owners. The rivers are public property in Texas.
Folks have been floating the rivers for decades. Property owners have complained for decades. Apparently, one of those property owners has the ear of the governor and got tube rentals shut down.
Hmm, maybe it’s just me but it sounds like if “[f]olks have been floating the rivers for decades” and “[p]roperty owners have complained for decades,” that the only real variable here is Covid rather than a single property owner “with the ear of the governor.”
Abbot’s been governor since 2015.
I am well aware of how long Abbott has been TX governor since I have lived here about 51 years. TX is like all other states where politicians get their ears bent by donors and long time friends. New Braunfels, where tubing is popular on the Guadalupe River, is just 48 miles south of Austin and was the fastest growing city in the US in 2019. Many folks who lived in Austin (state capital) have moved to New Braunfels. I suspect many of them are/were deeply involved in state government. I also suspect that a few of them bought property on the Guadalupe River. I further suspect that some of those folks do not like those tubers that float the Guadalupe.
This situation is rife with problematic decisions by Gov Abbott. He just yesterday extended the closing of all bars. With PPP money running out at the end of the month, this is a death blow to nearly all bars in TX. That is not an exaggeration. I suspect that nearly 90% of TX bars will close permanently.
Covid is no reason to prohibit tube rental companies from operating. The rivers and beaches in TX are public lands and are all open to the public right now. There are no restrictions in place for those locations. A person can bring their own tube and drop themselves into the river and float as long as desired.
If the concern was truly Covid, the beaches and rivers would all be closed. They are not.
Lots of suspicions, but no real evidence.
Okay, but bad decisions don’t presuppose someone “has the ear” of the governor. See here for why that’s bad reasoning:
https://www.txstate.edu/philosophy/resources/fallacy-definitions/Begging-the-Question.html
Will you also argue that, say, the Southern Baptists have the ear of Abbott and thus that’s why he extended the bar closings?
So says you. But let’s grant the assumption. According to you Covid is no reason to close bars either, but you’re not arguing someone has the ear of the governor on that matter.
Let’s grant this assumption as well. Sure if good decisions were dictating the day. But you’ve already agreed that bad decisions are being made without anyone having the ear of the governor, yet you’ve chosen to apply a logical reason (i.e., someone having the ear of the governor) to the bad decision to ban tubing. You seem to contradict yourself here.
Look you may very well be right, I can’t know. But your thought process is inconsistent and contradicts itself. Furthermore it’s quite a bit “Alex Jonesy” if you know your conspiracy theorists. I don’t really want to believe my governor is banning something as ridiculously minuscule in importance as tubing down a waterway just because some friends like it quiet. That seems out of character for Abbott.
Since you have the burden of proof here (and you have nothing but suspicions), and there’s an alternative explanation that’s much more reasonable than your conspiracy theory, I’m going with the more reasonable explanation.
On the BBC Radio 4 news @ 13:00 14th Sept.
News reader: “The policing minister said we should report on others if we seem them breaking the rule of six. Would you ‘dob in’ next door.”
Random unnamed person: “If my next door neighbour I found out was a terrorist, then I would report them, because they are potentially a killer. Now Covid 19 in my opinion is a killer, and therefore I think anybody who flouts the rules is basically the same as a terrorist walking down the road spraying a machine gun.”
Hopefully this person will meet such a terrorist so that he has the chance to learn the difference.
This is the most insidious part about the Covid-19 fear campaign: They have convinced a significant portion of the population that mere exposure to this virus is a near death sentence, akin to nerve gas. It’s hard to reason with people when they are gripped with that kind of fear. I know, I’ve tried.
Yesterday I sent critical email to guardian.readers@guardian.co.uk taking apart their covid “explainer” article and making some constructive suggestions and included a graph of UK fatalities. I got a boilerplate acknowledgement.
Today they actually put a graph of fatality data into an article.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/14/covid-19-french-regions-to-announce-new-restrictions
It appears that they do actually listen if you take the time to make informed points and back it up.
I am still wondering if this virus is natural or not. I initially pooh-poohed the idea it had escaped from a lab, but after reading some research on the genetic similarities to other viruses and what research they were doing in China, I can’t toss out the idea it was a deliberately manufactured hybrid.
I don’t think we will ever know for sure.
We sure won’t get any public admission and the whole of virology is circling their wagons to refute any possibility that their sorcerer’s apprentice experiments with genetically modified viruses may be the root cause of this disaster.
Any suggestion of that will be systematically wiped from farceBook , Utube etc.
However, “gain of function” experiments are an active area of study and involve forcing viruses to jump species in order to study them. There is published work starting from horseshoe bat corona virus, modified to infect bats, civets and even human airway cells in vitro. No coincidence the bats and civets are exactly the species they are trying to implicate in their myths about the Wuhan wet market. They know exactly what species are involved, they been working with them for years.
Check out Prof. Bret Weinstein on Joe Rogan he gives a good account of it.
There was one post possibly at WUWT where the writer( a doctor?) essentially dissected the code and said that one part of it could not have occurred naturally. So the conclusion is that it was released or escaped due to poor lab controls. And the USA knew about the poor lab controls.
Covid seems to be a deep state Marxoid plot to take over the world. Can Trump stop it? Doubtful. Fauci needs to be sacked for a start.
You know what I find interesting? The Fauci claimed he had the flu in late 2019 and that along with all the speaking he had done caused a polyp in his throat that needed surgery to remove.
Now how the eff does the leading epidemiologist in the world come down with the flu? I guess he was right, masks do not work.
Plenty of doctors smoke and die of lung cancer.
Bingo Greg
There is no virus. Or at least, no virus has been proven to exist. No published paper exists that shows a virus has been isolated and proven to cause COVID. Not a one. None have used the gold standard to proven causation – Koch’s Postulates. And the PCR test tests only for sequences “ASSUMED” to be from a corona-virus. No sequences have ever been proven to come from any virus at all. All are theoretical. None of this has been done to established medical standards.
Wolf Blitzer had the governor of Washington ST on CNN this afternoon.
The governor went into an anti Trump screed, accusing the president of being responsible for the “climate fires” in his state. That’s right, he’s decided to call them “climate fires”.
And he insists that Trump is ignorant of science?
The funniest part was at the end.
For some odd reason, not related to a scientific application, with nobody else in the room(except the person operating the camera, that was some distance away) the governor was wearing a huge black cloth mask covering most of his face during the entire interview.
Cloth masks, don’t stop the virus from getting in or out but they do keep it from being projected for longer distances, mainly from an infected person that coughs or sneezes. So they are helpful, especially if accompanied by social distancing in places with multiple people…..to protect them from you, if you have the virus.
But this was on national tv and nobody there in the room with him. The virus is not able to jump from the air surrounding infected viewers watching on their tv’s at home and transport long distances to come out of the camera at his end and infect him.
Cloth masks do absolutely nothing to filter smoke, like that which is affecting residents on the West Coast because of the wildfires………..and of course, there was no smoke in his room.
So just as they were getting ready to rap it up, Wolf says: “One last question, why are you wearing the mask? Is it because of the smoke or is it because of the coronavirus?”
Governor: “I’m wearing it because of the coronavirus”.
The question was dumb(unless Wolf was making fun of him which is doubtful) because a cloth mask does exactly ZERO for smoke and maybe, if the governor knew he is infected with COVID, he might want to protect the camera person………….which is extremely unlikely. So wearing the mask in that environment was not just accomplishing exactly ZERO, it was in fact completely counterproductive and misleading if you are trying to convince people that don’t agree with wearing a mask of a legit reason to wear a mask.
He was demonstrating the wearing of a mask for absolutely no practical reason what so ever because he was not presenting any threat of spreading the virus to non existent people in the room.
If he can’t tell the difference between when one should wear a mask and when its not needed, then who is going to believe him about wearing one at all?
I went for a brief walk around my residential neighborhood late yesterday afternoon. Only a few others out walking, so very easy to keep a distance. Fresh air, sunshine, and a cool breeze. I spotted a 30-something mask-wearing fellow walking his dog. The dog-walker was on his own, no one around for blocks. Was he worried that a chance encounter with another human would lead to another “case”? Was he virtue signalling? Did his significant other insist that he wear a mask, or else? I have no idea.
I’m sure many of us have similar stories.
Oh, and there was the obligatory middle-aged bicycle rider blowing through the stop signs. I guess not all risks are created equal. 😉
I think the problem mostly has to do with far too many in the population look at the world around them as a univariate equation with binary results.
The Wuhan Death Miasma killed people. The single variable is wearing The Veil, the outcome is binary “I’m safe when wearing The Veil”.
I keep getting flashbacks of a woman in a bikini, heading into a lake on a hot day in July……with a face mask on. The beach was not crowded.
Sars-Cov-2, the virus formally from Wuhan, evolved and reached peak viability before the phobic response spread masks to socially distance, and physically distance rarerely and never, and after Planned Parent, and is now spiked in external factors and tamped down leverage. That said, don’t forget the goggle, the eyes are a window to social and viral contagion.
Keep one crocodile apart sign from down under.
?_nc_cat=100&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=pxscMCHtmNoAX8IjK86&_nc_ht=scontent.fric1-1.fna&tp=7&oh=6630579ed47d9ca6586e9afb97b94b00&oe=5F877947
Depends if it mutates. The 1918 flu mutated and the second wave was worse. The second wave particularly affected the under 35s oddly. So yeah, this isnt necessarially over even if the original virus is.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-is-covid-covid/ I posted this earlier but it was moderated? Anyway a good read re the RT-PCR test and cycle threshold. And probably backs up the NYT’s ‘90% false cases’ research.
So let’s try to get some perspective on the situation in France.
At the moment deaths per 100,000 people is 47.
The magnificent Melbourne Cricket Ground holds 100,000 cricket fans.
So what are the chances that you’re going to sit in one of the 47 seats out of the whole stadium, and remember 33 of those seats are reserved for people over 75 years old, so now (if you’re under 75) you need to avoid 14 deadly chairs.
If you’re under 20 you can sit wherever you like.
Don’t mean to sound flippant but this over reach by governments has to stop.
My mother in law put me onto this ( insert favorite Les Dawson joke here) about the use of Iodine to protect against Sars-Cov-2.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7341475/
It seems that Trump may have been onto something when he asked if there was a way to get disinfectant into the body.
Compounds containing chlorine are generally disinfectants. Hydroxychloroquine contains chlorine. Just sayin’. 😉
…rather than highly sensitive theoretical modelling based on assumptions and unknowns
Like a virus, this approach seems to be infecting more than just medical and climate science. “Models” are taken as gospel. Feynman would be having a fit.
Over, it ain’t over until (bad) Orange Man gone!
If Biden should
winsteel the election, we will see a shift in the narrative. By the time ofBiden’s inaugurationKamala Harris’ Regency, the crisis will be a non-story.Should Trump win, expect the crisis narrative to continue until they can invent another crisis or outrage.
The question if PCR testing makes sense is what do you want as a result from PCR testing, what is your purpose you are using it for.
Depending on your purpose it might not make any sense at all or it is exactly what you need.
One thing completely independent of PCR testing as a technique are the administrative procedures surrounding it which can render the testing completely useless for the purpose it is intended for.
People mix all of that together and say “PCR testing is bad”. That is utterly stupid. The world is more complex. Sorry to disappoint you.
Vitamin D (plus vitamin K2 to help absorption) is probably the best preventive available so far. Over 30 clinical trials are underway to study vitamin D, but the results won’t be available for months or even until next year. Meanwhile, the anecdotal evidence and small studies continue to grow. Vitamin D supplementation costs about six cents. Six. Cents. A. Day. I started taking vitamin D3 back in early April when the first promising studies appeared. Even Fauci mentioned vitamin D recently.
I think I am correct in summarising the PCR process as being like a replicator – in that if you start with a single item and double it -in this case for each of forty cycles, you get over a trillion (billion in traditional British English usage, but we tend to use the American version now). On a visualisation using a sugar cube at the size of one cubic centimetre, with 40 cycles of doubling, you end up with a cube of 100 metres (a running track) on each side, with many tonnes left over. This level of amplification makes the PCR test meaningless for diagnostic purposes.
I will return to this paper in a months time, by then we will know if this paper is junk. I can see overall mortality in UK at the moment is normal, but it wasn’t normal before lockdown by an order of magnitude.
My gut feeling is nobody knows much, we are asked to believe children have no role in transmission, this is an extraordinary claim, as every other infectious disease children spread it.
With the lack of an explanation or any evidence all sorts of people make all sorts of claims. One thing I can see is Boris looks very worried, he has nearly died from Covid so from that stand point pardon me but I will be worried as well.
“it wasn’t normal before lockdown by an order of magnitude.”
That’s because hospitals were busy killing off vulnerable people by shoving them onto ventilators. Now those vulnerable people are either dead or staying home, and the ventilator fad has died down, there are few people the virus or the NHS can kill.
sycomputing (September 15, 2020 at 9:38 am) — [1]
Your comment sounds correct at a first glance, but in fact is really flawed.
I don’t mean your rather destructive polemic against Dem states and governors: I’m an European person living in Germany, and therefore can’t care much about that.
I’m all but a fan of Mr Trump, but that is quite secondary here, because what I want to discuss is not ‘Who’s to blame?’ but ‘What did happen?’.
The major flaw in your argumentation is that you only look at the end of the COVID time series.
I suppose you won’t look at the last months or years in temperature, sea ice or snow cover time series, and hope that you will rather tend to obtain a view at at wider angle, encompassing as much as possible of such series.
And so we all should do wrt COVID data: the problem is by no means described by looking all the time at the end number of deaths per million. You have to consider how it came to these numbers, by looking at many months, and inspecting how the death toll moved over time.
Here is a first comparison of the daily death toll for various continents, to which Europe (excluding Russia, Belarus and Ukraina) and the US have been added:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LR-mCGPYTh_EUhR70YQlEM5FHUAu4zU6/view
Source : European Centre for Disease Control.
As you can see, the point is really not that the cumulative death toll for Europe is about half that for the US: the point rather is how the two countries reached their respective values, and – above all – what we have to expect in the immediate future, when looking at the slope of the respective plots.
But even the graph above still contains a flaw: it shows cumulative data instead of increments, what is shown by the graph below:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zbvbRzRgVXATllqG7KSBcvlU0Q5cbjqS/view
Here you see what really happened over time.
It is easy to do the same job when zooming inside of the US.
J.-P. D.
Source: ECDC
https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv
Bindidon:
Thanks for your comment.
By this I assume you mean in an evaluation of climate change I would not review only the last data. That’s true I wouldn’t. Only the last data wouldn’t tell us much about climatic events that happened over billions of years and thus that aren’t markedly affected by the actions of mankind during only the last 100 or so.
Pandemics don’t happen over billions of years. They tend to rise and fall relatively quickly, sometimes in a matter of just a few years or even less. Furthermore, in my opinion earth’s climate is not managed in any objectively verifiable scientific sense (yet) by mankind.
On the other hand, pandemics are managed in large measure by men and in the U.S. they’re managed by different types of men: 1) those who govern under progressive assumptions and 2) those who don’t. Thus I would argue pandemics and climate change are two very different natural scenarios and comparing the two is illegitimate, i.e., it’s an example of the False Comparison logical fallacy:
https://tinyurl.com/y4q4vpwe
Looking at the many months and how the death toll moved over time doesn’t give you (in the U.S. anyway) much more than a generic look at what happened. If you want to know more about how the numbers came to be then you dig deeper, e.g., you review the numbers state by state, county by county, city by city and see what you might glean from that analysis. Surely you’ll agree that differentiating the way in which Sweden managed Covid compared to other countries is more useful than lumping their data together with everyone else’s into a generic historical data line as you’ve offered in your graphs. I believe a good data set from which to start is here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
You’ll notice this data set does a pretty thorough job of breaking down the numbers state by state, county by county, city by city, etc., and by so doing, seems to confirm my argument that merely reviewing a generic graph such as the one’s you offer don’t tell us much at all, except for a generic look at what happened over time.
One doesn’t learn much by utilizing a mere overall historical review because the way the pandemic was managed wasn’t uniform in fashion. It changed based on jurisdiction. Each city/county/state handled the pandemic according to how their respective city/county/state governing bodies deemed necessary, with some overall outline rules coming from the governors and the county administrators. At least this was so in Texas.
Clearly the statistics indicate that the top 14 states in the US mismanaged in varying degrees the pandemic compared to other states. We also know this not only from the data, but from the fact that, e.g., Andrew “Senior Slayer” Cuomo committed the heinous atrocity of forcing Covid infected patients into nursing homes with heretofore uninfected elderly patients. The result was the unnecessary deaths of thousands of elderly Americans at the hand of a progressive murderer and he wasn’t the only one that did so.
So I would argue I am better considering “how it came to these numbers” by noting the stark difference in performance between those jurisdictions governed by progressives and those that aren’t. There’s a reason the worst performing states are governed by liberals. If not mismanagement, then what is it in your view? Especially considering the worst performing cities and states for crime, poverty, and overall human misery are progressive jurisdictions as well.
Unfortunately, I don’t see your point at all. E.g., I don’t see the “cumulative” death toll is half of the U.S., I see the deaths/million might be, is that what you mean? The cumulative death toll for Europe is surely more than the U.S. if my numbers for the U.K. and the U.S. are correct. Btw, another question, in looking at the orange and red lines on your graphs, who is “US” and who is “America”? Aren’t these the same?
And even if I grant your premise, your graphs don’t tell us anything particularly useful except for a generic look at what happened over time. The question is “WHY” did such and such happen over time? And for that, you need more than your graphs.
To sum up, I think I’m right in how I’ve analyzed the data for the reasons I outlined above. The first (and really the pillar) of which is that your comparison of climate change and pandemics is logically flawed and should therefore be rejected at the outset. But even given your comparison were valid, clearly breaking down the overall data into further and further sets of data by jurisdiction, and the subsequent analysis of that data to analyze what we can as to why what happened did happen is far more useful for future planning than your offering.
If you care to re-engineer your argument I’m here and listening.
sycomputing
” I believe a good data set from which to start is here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ ”
Jesus. Thanks for the hint, I follow Worldometers data since Mid February, and had some mail exchange with them.
” Unfortunately, I don’t see your point at all. E.g., I don’t see the “cumulative” death toll is half of the U.S., I see the deaths/million might be, is that what you mean? ”
Of course it is! How else could you compare whole continents? How else could you compare e.g. Portugal with Spain, or – yes – UK with US, or all four together?
Everybody doing stats concerning countries does that on a ‘per capita’ basis.
” The cumulative death toll for Europe is surely more than the U.S. ”
This is absolutely not interesting because Europe counts about 200 millions of inhabitants more than the US.
” Btw, another question, in looking at the orange and red lines on your graphs, who is “US” and who is “America”? Aren’t these the same? ”
Oh Noes… America is a continent, sycomputing. It ranges from Nunavuk till Chile…
Sorry, I think it’s better for me to keep away.
Thanks, J.-P. D.
Hey you bet bud! Take care now!
sycomputing (September 15, 2020 at 9:38 am) — [2]
Now let us look at what happens inside of the US, by analyzing COVID data provided on GitHub by the New York Times { no: they didn’t make the Dem states look better than they are 🙁 }.
Here is a comparison of Red and Blue on a cumulative basis:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1G_5x7e7-EmN7Tx0UmeoQfwbqut7YgL1N/view
and the same for the daily death toll increments:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1anDfR4srXRChW9QRtofacNg1yZl1pjA3/view
The worst we could do is to blame the blue states for their incremental numbers: simply because the blue plot looks quite similar to that for Italy.
No, sycomputing: Your aversion to the Dems is not a good guide.
The problem is by far much more complex, and starts with searching for an answer why
– Africa and Asia, although together they make up about 60% of the world’s population, hardly play a role in COVID;
– America conversely is so heavily affected by the disease.
Furthermore, coming back to the US, you rather should investigate, on the county level (provided by NYT as well), some factors possibly more relevant than blue vs. red, for example:
– population density;
– median income;
– ICU bed density;
– local ethnic distribution in the county’s population.
J.-P. D.
Source of NYT state data
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/master/us-states.csv
Trusting the New York Times isn’t wise Bindidon. They’ve become known liars for political purposes. Several of their editors have resigned over disagreements on how to handle the news, meaning, how to fairly handle the news of the day. I’m not sure how the news of the day isn’t fairly handled by merely reporting it, but I guess that’s just me. The fact that they need to argue over that is objective evidence of bias.
Moreover, I’ve already shown from the worldometer data how 102,500 deaths (as of yesterday) are directly attributable to 14 Democrat progressive governed states. So a mere 14 (of 50 total states) Democrat progressive governed states are responsible for +/- 51% of all deaths in the U.S. You tell me how I should interpret this fact?
Already done:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/17/open-thread-weekend-23/#comment-3038904
Agreed. It’s not merely “good,” but the BEST guide for the rational, thinking man.
Oops, my mistake.
For the DFW area county analysis see here instead:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/17/open-thread-weekend-23/#comment-3038375
sycomputing
I was sure you wouldn’t understand the hint: you are married to your narrative.
I repeat:
1. Daily death toll distribution
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1anDfR4srXRChW9QRtofacNg1yZl1pjA3/view
2. Furthermore, coming back to the US, you rather should investigate, on the county level (provided by NYT as well), some factors possibly more relevant than blue vs. red, for example:
– population density;
– median income;
– ICU bed density;
– local ethnic distribution in the county’s population.
Maybe you start thinking a bit about why the Dem state plot looks exactly like those of Spain and Italy (but when I see how superficial your reply looks, I have some doubt).
Keep shooting on ‘your’ Dems, it is really funny.
J.-P. D.
Bindidon:
It isn’t that I’m not listening.
It’s that I don’t believe you.
I tell you what – since you’ve drawn some alternative conclusions based on your research of the county level data, why don’t you post your results and show me where and how far I’m off in mine?
sycomputing
FYI, here is a quick sort of the cumulative deaths as published by NYT:
17 09 2020 New_York 36 451971 32669
17 09 2020 New_Jersey 34 200152 16057
17 09 2020 Texas 48 710423 14909
17 09 2020 California 06 776901 14807
17 09 2020 Florida 12 674448 13085
17 09 2020 Massachusetts 25 126128 9260
17 09 2020 Illinois 17 271370 8643
17 09 2020 Pennsylvania 42 152813 7978
17 09 2020 Michigan 26 126794 6956
17 09 2020 Georgia 13 284219 6328
As you can see, the numbers differ by very few (so do also those of ECDC: Worldometers has the quickest reaction of all COVID case/death reporters).
I had a look at your Texas analysis. You have to do that for the entire US 🙂 before obtaining any valuable answer.
It is absolutely evident to me that the Dem plot on the daily chart has NOTHING to do with the Dems, exactly as the daily increment chart for Europe has NOTHING to do with the political direction of Europe’s constituents, what a joke.
The European states have few in common alltogether; Italy and Spain have completely different governments.
Their local increment charts have to do with population density, income, median age of the population at the COVID starting places.
The lower the density AND the quicker the lockdown strategy, the lower the COVID curves: you see that when you compare ECDC’s numbers for
– Scandinavia without Sweden
– Sweden alone
– the UK.
J.-P. D.
St Deaths Deaths/1M pop
NJ 16,179 1,822
NY 33,163 1,705
MA 9,260 1,343
CT 4,488 1,259
LA 5,311 1,142
RI 1,085 1,024
MS 2,780 934
DC 619 877
AR 5,409 743
MI 6,955 696
IL 8,624 681
MD 3,861 639
DE 619 636
PA 7,994 624
Cumulative Democrat progressive governed state deaths in the top 14 of deaths/million:
106,347 of 202,237, or just above 50%.
So just using the top 14 in deaths/million, 28% of all US states are responsible for 50% of total deaths. Those 28% are blue (so far). I might go on and count each and every blue state death, we’ll see.
It is rather anecdotal, I’ll admit. But with the overall state deaths/million to total, and with the additional evidence that Democrat progressive policies like Andrew “Senior Slayer” Cuomo’s atrocious murder of thousands of elderly patients in NY along with several other progressive governors like him, I don’t see such a leap in logic as you do.
Hey whatever you say bud. I’m not so sure about your ability to reason effectively, given your tendency to employ logical fallacies in your reasoning:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/09/14/why-the-covid-19-epidemic-is-essentially-over-current-pcr-testing-protocols-are-pointless/#comment-3086425
IT’S OVER FOLKS. O-V-E-R, OVER. DONE.
Nobel-laureate Dr. Michael Levitt (Chemistry and structural biology at Stanford)
July 25, 2020: “US COVID19 will be done in 4 weeks [Aug 25] with total reported deaths below 170,000. How will we know it is over? Like for Europe, when all cause excess deaths are at normal level for week. Reported COVID19 deaths may continue after 25 Aug. & reported cases will, but it will be over.”
The CDC has a “total/excess” deaths page so we can all track it here. Scroll down to the chart:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
The week ending August 29th is at the 5 year average line. It might go a bit higher so Dr Levitt may be off by a week. LOL.