A snapshot of melting Arctic sea ice during the summer of 2018

CELL PRESS

IMAGE
IMAGE: THIS FIGURE SHOWS THE SEA ICE CONCENTRATION AND THICKNESS IN THE ARCTIC ON SEPTEMBER 23RD 2018. view more CREDIT: JUHI YADAV

As sea ice in the Arctic retreats further and melts faster every decade, scientists are racing to understand the vulnerabilities of one of the world’s most remote and unforgiving places. A study appearing July 29 in the journal Heliyon details the changes that occurred in the Arctic in September of 2018, a year when nearly 10 million kilometers of sea ice were lost over the course of the summer. Their findings give an overview at different timescales of how sea ice has receded over the 40 years of the satellite era and show how the summer’s extensive decline is linked to global atmospheric processes as far south as the tropics.

At the peak of its melting season, in July 2018, the Arctic was losing sea ice at a rate of 105,500 square kilometers per day–an area bigger than Iceland or the state of Kentucky. “On the ground, I am sure it would have looked like an excellent summer month in the Arctic, in general, but over the past four decades, September sea-ice loss has accelerated to a rate of 12.8% per decade and 82,300 square kilometers per year,” says co-author Avinash Kumar, a senior scientist at the National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR) in India.

The researchers followed the warm water currents of the Atlantic north to the Arctic Ocean and tracked the ice as it subsequently retreated through the Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, Kara, and Barents seas. Thanks to higher temporal resolution and greater satellite coverage than had previously been available, they could also measure the ice’s decline through variables such as its thickness, concentration, and volume in addition to its extent throughout the Arctic. This dramatic loss of sea ice culminated at the end of the boreal summer, when in September, the ice had been reduced to a mere third of its winter extent.

Then, the team compared the decline to the previous four decades of data. “In the summer of 2018, the loss of sea ice was three times higher than the reported loss at the beginning of the satellite era,” says Kumar. “Our study shows that both the minimum sea-ice extent and the warmest September records occurred in the last twelve years.”

“Every year, news pops up of a new record of high temperature or fastest loss of sea ice in the Arctic region, but in the global system, each portion of the planet receiving climate feedback will lead to changes in the other parts as well,” Kumar says. “If the sea-ice decline continues at this pace, it can have a catastrophic impact by raising air temperatures and slowing down global ocean circulation.” These global impacts are partly why he became interested in trying to decipher the mysteries of the polar regions as a doctoral student studying the coastal zone in India. Now, he works at NCPOR, whose scientific programs, he says, are “truly trans-hemispheric, cutting across from north to south.”

The researchers also turned their attention to the atmosphere, where they were able to gain insight into the processes that contribute to the loss of Arctic sea ice. They found not only that September of 2018 was the third warmest on record, but that there was a temperature difference within the Arctic itself: the temperature of the air above the Arctic Ocean (~3.5°C) was slightly higher than that of the Arctic land (~2.8°C).

Their findings provide further evidence that ocean warming around the globe has influenced the natural cycle of the wind and pressure patterns in the Arctic. El Niños, or warm phases in long-term temperature cycles stemming from tropical regions, have long been known to drive extreme weather events around the world and are occurring with greater frequency as the world warms. El Niño cycles in the equatorial Pacific Ocean can carry warm air and water from tropical circulations to the Arctic, spurring the sea ice to melt. As the ice retreats, it cascades the Arctic into a positive feedback loop known as Arctic amplification, whereby the reduced ice extent gives way to darker ocean waters that absorb more of the sun’s radiation. As it retains more heat, temperatures rise and more ice melts, causing the Arctic region to heat up faster–about four times so–than the rest of the world.

“If the decline of sea ice continues to accelerate at a rate of 13% per decade in September, the Arctic is likely to be free of ice within the next three decades,” Kumar says. And just as sea-ice retreat is largely the result of anthropogenic pressures from across the globe, its impacts will be felt worldwide: this work adds to the mounting body of evidence that changes in the Arctic sea ice could be detrimental to weather patterns spanning the globe. He says, “The changes taking place in the Arctic can lead to other changes in lower latitudes, such as extreme weather conditions. The world should be watching tropical countries like India, with our research center saddled close to the beaches of Goa, and trying to understand–even in a small way–more about climate change and the polar regions.”

###

This work was supported by the National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research, Goa, the Ministry of Earth Science, New Delhi, and the University Grants Commission, New Delhi.

Heliyon, Kumar et al.: “Global warming leading to alarming recession of the Arctic sea-ice cover: Insights from remote sensing observations and model reanalysis” https://www.cell.com/heliyon/fulltext/S2405-8440(20)31199-3

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Bob boder
July 30, 2020 6:08 am

“If the decline of sea ice continues to accelerate at a rate of 13% per decade in September, the Arctic is likely to be free of ice within the next three decades,” Kumar says. And just as sea-ice retreat is largely the result of anthropogenic pressures from across the globe, its impacts will be felt worldwide: this work adds to the mounting body of evidence that changes in the Arctic sea ice could be detrimental to weather patterns spanning the globe. He says, “The changes taking place in the Arctic can lead to other changes in lower latitudes, such as extreme weather conditions. The world should be watching tropical countries like India, with our research center saddled close to the beaches of Goa, and trying to understand–even in a small way–more about climate change and the polar regions.”

I love the IF at the begining

AMO Anybody

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Bob boder
July 30, 2020 6:43 am

If I select the correct numbers, I will win the lottery.

philincalifornia
Reply to  Bob boder
July 30, 2020 8:09 am

Could someone tap Kumar on the shoulder and let him know that summer sea ice minimum extent has been stable, to very slightly increasing since 2007 in the real world.

Do these people get their data from BBC gobsh!tes. It’s one click away in the sidebar here.

Bryan A
Reply to  philincalifornia
July 30, 2020 8:49 am

But…there is a kernel of truth in their statement if you look at the data…
1989 minimum was slightly less than 1979 minimum
1999 minimum was slightly less than 1989 minimum
2009 minimum was slightly less than 1999 minimum
2019 minimum was slightly less than 2009 minimum
Though you do need to pick a few cherries for it to work
Other start years and subsequent decade data yield different results

Reply to  Bryan A
July 30, 2020 9:18 am

From statistical point of view, what a shapshot may tell us ??
Maybe griff has an idea ?? 😀

Reply to  Krishna Gans
July 30, 2020 9:29 pm

What is the impact. Please, please , tell us the “impact”!!

John Tillman
Reply to  Bryan A
July 30, 2020 9:25 am

Summer minima in 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014 and 2013 were higher than in 2012. Minima in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 were higher than 2007.

For instance.

August and September Arctic cyclones made 2007, 2012 and 2016 the three lowest years of the past 13. IOW, weather.

Climate, OTOH, is why Arctic sea ice was low in the 1920s to ’40s, high in the ’50s to ’70s and low in the ’80s to ’00s. It’s now gaining again from its 2012 low (the precise year based upon weather).

boffin77
Reply to  philincalifornia
July 30, 2020 9:58 am

According to http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent Northern hemisphere sea ice extent has been decreasing linearly by 47,000 km2 per year since 1979 when the chart begins. Given that total ice extent is about 11 million km2, that is a decline of about 0.4% per year. Unless I’m missing something this means, at this rate, ice would disappear in 250 years ??
Note in the NOAA graph the right-hand axis is labelled incorrectly / use the left axis label, which matches the data tables.

Phil.
Reply to  boffin77
August 1, 2020 8:40 pm

Both axes are correct, one is in sq km the other in sq miles.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Bob boder
July 30, 2020 8:51 am

Still don’t know why I should care about less sea ice. Albedo is a canard, and not enough of an effect to worry about. If it were, then we would slip into a glacial during those winters were much of the northern hemisphere is covered in snow and ice.

boffin77
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
July 30, 2020 10:29 am

Jeff,
On the one hand I agree: why worry about something that you literally cannot control. On the other hand, reflecting the sun’s energy before it becomes heat is effective and painless, so clouds and contrails and ice and desert sand are our friends.

John Tillman
Reply to  boffin77
July 30, 2020 10:41 am

Assuming that cooler is better.

MarkW
Reply to  boffin77
July 30, 2020 11:41 am

At those latitudes the difference in albedo between water and ice isn’t much to begin with (especially in the winter). As the ice ages and starts getting covered in dust and soot, the difference becomes even more insignificant.

Any way, the less ice there is, the more easily the water can lose heat to space, so loss of ice is a strong negative feedback.

John Tillman
Reply to  MarkW
July 30, 2020 12:55 pm

Yup. Albedo of Antarctic sea ice is far more significant than Arctic because it extends so much closer to the Equator.

William Astley
Reply to  MarkW
July 30, 2020 3:24 pm

Albedo of Antarctic sea ice

And the albedo of the Antarctic ice is greater than the tops of low level clouds.

The very high speed Antarctic winds break the ice crystals which increase the albedo of the ice.

This explains the Polar see-saw which is the phenomena that during the small warming and cooling cycles, the Antarctic Ice sheet warms when the Greenland ice sheet cools and vice versa.

Svensmark has proven the Polar see saw is caused high latitude cloud changes.

In the Northern Hemisphere the Greenland ice sheet albedo is less than clouds and the Greenland Ice sheet does not create a polar vortex.

Svensmark got detailed temperature data for the last 6000 years from the two ice sheets from a papers that has used the direct ice temperature method which captures small changes and is accurate that length of time.

This is a link to Svensmark’s paper that is an easy read where he explains the simple proof and data.

http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0612145v1

The Antarctic climate anomaly and galactic cosmic rays

…If changes in cloudiness play a part in climate change, their effect changes sign in Antarctica. Satellite data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) are here used to calculate the changes in surface temperatures at all latitudes, due to small percentage changes in cloudiness.

The results match the observed contrasts in temperature changes, globally and in Antarctica.

Evidently clouds do not just respond passively to climate changes but take an active part in the forcing, in accordance with changes in the …

John Tillman
Reply to  MarkW
July 30, 2020 3:45 pm

William,

Thanks!

Much I hadn’t considered.

philincalifornia
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
July 30, 2020 1:54 pm

“Still don’t know why I should care about less sea ice.”

My own personal experience is that no one actually does give a s*** except for phony climate virtue-signaling. Over the past 30 years I’ve flown the San Francisco-London route and back, many many times. I find looking out of the plane’s window at the beautiful ice, icebergs and snowy mountains of Greenland is really wonderful. I guess other people don’t, because I’m the only one on the plane doing it.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  philincalifornia
July 31, 2020 9:08 am

I’ve only flown trans-Atlantic twice (once for the Army US to Germany then back a while later in 1981, and once to the UK in 1992 for a pleasure trip). Seeing the sea ice was pretty amazing, but then I thought of the shipping…

Pat
Reply to  Bob boder
July 30, 2020 12:55 pm

Why waste all this science on non-science?

“The climate emergency isn’t about science, it’s about justice,” Holthaus wrote on July 28, 2020.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/30/alert-warmist-eric-holthaus-admits-it-the-climate-emergency-isnt-about-science-its-about-justice/

John Tillman
Reply to  Bob boder
July 30, 2020 3:41 pm

You know you’ve lost the Mandate of Heaven when…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cc6Rdi1A9DY

On the heels of so many other disasters.

Summer snow in China at the same time as Arctic sea ice turned a corner.

Steve Keohane
July 30, 2020 6:12 am

Going from no ice to some ice over the past 5K years as sea level has dropped six feet, is going to have a lot of short-term (decades/centuries) variation at this beginning phase of re-glaciation.

Joseph Zorzin
July 30, 2020 6:29 am

Off subject but interesting item in the BBC.
“Siberia’s enormous hole in the ground is getting bigger”
https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p08lmh4z/siberia-s-enormous-hole-in-the-ground-is-getting-bigger

Of course such “holes” must have occurred numerous times as the glaciers advanced and retreated- so it’s no great eco tragedy. And, no mention of what the future might hold for that “hole”- namely, it’ll turn green with vegetation and many species of wildlife will arrive there, sooner or later.

Carl Friis-Hansen
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
July 30, 2020 7:01 am

Fascinating hole, it nearly took the little house with it.
Maybe this hole opens up for discovery of ancient animals once living there. Surely Melissa Hogenboom will report on this too – if it goes through the BBC censorship.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
July 30, 2020 8:53 am

Someone will have a contest to name the hole, and the winner by a large margin will be: Holey McHoleface.

Where’s my prize?

kwinterkorn
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
July 30, 2020 10:25 am

I think the hole should be nicknamed “Greta’s Logic”.

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
July 30, 2020 10:02 am

So it was caused by humans cutting trees for firewood? Maybe they should’ve burned coal instead.

rbabcock
July 30, 2020 6:33 am

Let’s see how we come out of the upcoming winter with the warmer water temperatures in the northern Pacific, Gulf of Alaska and between Canada and Greenland. The northern Atlantic is already cooling. The equatorial Pacific has lost its warm water and will not be feeding the waters north of it until the ENSO flips warm again. There is a lot of heat to give up but the NH winter in the higher latitudes will take a lot of it. It should be just a matter of time.

The southern hemisphere oceans seems to be cool and parts of the land mass there are having a cold winter.

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Dennis G Sandberg
Reply to  rbabcock
July 30, 2020 7:16 am

Ice free Arctic in three decades. OK but only for about one month. So what? Two months in 60 years? In 90 years we’ll be 90% nuclear and the fossil fuel global warming demon will be slain. Don’t worry, be happy

John Tillman
Reply to  rbabcock
July 30, 2020 11:15 am

Chile’s winter has been colder and much wetter than usual so far.

MarkW
July 30, 2020 6:39 am

If I didn’t know better, I would think the authors of this study are actually surprised to find out that arctic ice melts in the summer.

Andy Pattullo
July 30, 2020 6:39 am

Like watching your kids begin to ascend in a Ferris wheel and assuming they will eventually reach the moon.

Carl Friis-Hansen
July 30, 2020 6:47 am

What came first, the chicken or the egg?

… this work adds to the mounting body of evidence that changes in the Arctic sea ice could be detrimental to weather patterns spanning the globe.

I mean, is it the melting Arctic sea ice that determines the global weather patterns or is it the global weather patterns that determine the fate of the Arctic sea ice?

And the another thing:

The changes taking place in the Arctic can lead to other changes in lower latitudes, such as extreme weather conditions.

If the researchers assume a warmer arctic, it would lower the differential value between tropic and arctic, thus lowering the average potential for storms and other bad weather.
Tim Ball explained this millennia ago, but I suppose many researchers don’t want to listen to basic knowledge.

MarkW
Reply to  Carl Friis-Hansen
July 30, 2020 7:55 am

It’s interesting to note that they automatically assume that any change must be detrimental.

Reply to  Carl Friis-Hansen
July 30, 2020 8:11 am

Following Marcel Leroux, the Arctic determines the global weather patterns.
Mobile (Moving) Polar Highs and the Weather

Northern world from geostationary Meteosat 9

Dennis G Sandberg
Reply to  Krishna Gans
July 30, 2020 11:02 pm

Krishna Gans, Arctic determines the global weather patterns? That can’t be correct, no way, absolutely not. A few meters variation in ice thickness or kilometers of ice extent might cause a couple degree centigrade somewhere but nothing major.
Libs always confuse cause and effect. This is just example 9, 223 or some such value.

Reply to  Dennis G Sandberg
July 31, 2020 3:25 pm

You didn’t read Leroux ?
I ptovided links, have a look.
it’s not the question of more or less ice, but Leroux is speaking about the Mobile Polar Hights, what is completely different, but may determine the weather patterns.

fred250
July 30, 2020 6:47 am

yep, there sure is a LOT OF sea ice up there.

Biodata shows that there is far more sea ice now , than for most of the last 10,000 years.

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This is most probably because the planet is actually in a pretty COOL period compared to the rest of the Holocene.

Reply to  fred250
July 30, 2020 8:00 am

“fred250 July 30, 2020 at 6:47 am
yep, there sure is a LOT OF sea ice up there.

Biodata shows that there is far more sea ice now , than for most of the last 10,000 years”

Thank you, fred250.

What does “biodata” mean in this context?

griff
Reply to  fred250
July 30, 2020 8:40 am

er… no.

Sea ice was at its last low 10,000 years ago: today July 30th it is at its lowest since that date

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 9:24 am

Amazing. I didn’t realize they had satellites 10k years ago.
Actually, it was likely as low, or lower during a period of the 20s thru 40s, for starters, and highly likely lower during the MWP and other warm periods. But of course, that goes against your Warmunistic Beliefs.

The Dark Lord
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 9:25 am

nobody knows what the sea ice was 10,000 ago … period … you are comparing a WAG vs a visual measurement today … useless and misinforming at the same time …

Gerald Machnee
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 9:32 am

It gained ice in the last 3 days.
Poor griff.

John Tillman
Reply to  Gerald Machnee
July 30, 2020 10:56 am

Yup. Soon Arctic sea ice will no longer be the lowest in the satellite record for that date. Yesterday, it was only about 200 K sq km below last year, ie 6.2 v. 6.4 M sq km, or one Kansas. Big whoop!

John Tillman
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 9:34 am

End of the Holocene Climate Optimum was around 5200 years ago.

But, yes, Earth has been getting colder since then, or at least the end of the Minoan Warm Period, some 3000 years ago. So enjoy the brief respite in the longterm downtrend offered us by the Modern WP, which is still chillier than the Medieval, Roman, Minoan and Egyptian WPs, and of course the HCO.

Arctic sea ice today is more extensive than for most of the Holocene, ie the past 11,400 years.

MarkW
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 9:57 am

When griff decides to lose his mind, he does it in a grand fashion.

At least griffie poo is finally admitting that ice levels were lower 10K years ago. For years he’s been claiming that ice levels are the lowest in history. In fact I believe he made that claim just yesterday.

Latitude
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 10:10 am

but the real question is….what was it 100,000 years ago

John Tillman
Reply to  Latitude
July 30, 2020 2:25 pm

D/O events linked to Arctic sea ice loss, 100 to 30 Ka, ie during the last glaciation before its maximum frigidity:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/02/190211164033.htm#:~:text=A%20new%20study%20on%20ice,much%20as%2016%20degrees%20Celsius.&text=major%20climate%20events.-,During%20this%20period%2C%20Greenland%20temperatures%20rose%20by,much%20as%2016%20degrees%20Celsius.

The genuflection to what “we know” about recent sea ice decline may be excused.

Steve Keohane
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 10:36 am

Where did the last six feet of sea level go?

Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 10:55 am

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/
What do you think, will come next ?

Editor
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 8:55 pm

Griff is LYING here, since me and others in various websites, have posted science papers showing evidence that there were periods of time in the early interglacial of little to NO summer ice.

Graemethecat
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 10:53 pm

Hey Griff,

So now you admit the Arctic was ice-free 10000 years ago (actually much more recently than that, but I’ll let that pass). We’re making progress! You’re starting to learn some real Science! Now explain how Polar Bears managed to survive without Summer ice.

beng135
July 30, 2020 6:49 am

Watching ice melt (along w/water boiling) is kinda boring……

philincalifornia
Reply to  beng135
July 30, 2020 7:08 pm

A watched pot never boils. That’s one of the Rules of Thermodynamics as I’m led to believe. That’s why it’s boring.

Watching the Charctic Sea Ice graph is definitely more exciting than watching paint dry and grass grow:

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Where did loydo go? She was more fun than Griff, if you’re into that kind of humor.

Coeur de Lion
July 30, 2020 7:15 am

I love all those LARGE NUMBERS of melting ice! And the 1979 cherrypick. Anyone taking my £100 bet that ice will bottom out over 4 million square kilometres the third week in September as very much usual? That’s sixteen times the area of U.K. if you want another silly statistic. Come on, easy money!

Rainer Bensch
Reply to  Coeur de Lion
July 31, 2020 2:45 am

It doesn’t just melt, it’s LOST! Can’t you see?
nearly 10 million kilometers of sea ice were lost

I stopped reading there…
EurekAlert

Graemethecat
July 30, 2020 7:20 am

Why is there ANY ice at the Arctic in 2020? After all, experts like Professor Peter Wadhams and Inventor of the Internet Al Gore told us the Arctic was going to be ice-free years ago. They couldn’t possibly be wrong, could they?

MarkW
Reply to  Graemethecat
July 30, 2020 7:56 am

This time, they are going to get it right.
If you don’t believe me, just ask them.

Peter Morris
July 30, 2020 8:05 am

Ice free in thirty years, huh?

Well I see they’ve learned at least something from the more immediate pronunciations of doom. That’s long enough time where everyone will forget when it’s wrong.

Andy Espersen
July 30, 2020 8:17 am

I feel sure the authors are right about global weather/climate being an interconnected, incredibly complicated system with arctic ice being an important factor. And investigating this, trying to find the decisive factors here is great science. It would be fascinating if we could only know how much arctic ice was lost during the climatic optimum about 8000 years ago when sea levels were ca. 2 meters higher – or even 1000 years ago when global temperatures were higher than now.

Bruce Cobb
July 30, 2020 8:18 am

“As sea ice in the Arctic retreats further and melts faster every decade, scientists are racing to understand the vulnerabilities of one of the world’s most remote and unforgiving places.”
Stopped reading after that opening tidbit of Alarmist hype and emotionalism.

Petit_Barde
July 30, 2020 8:18 am

Indeed, what happened to the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice since 1979, the coldest year of the 20ht century is staggering :

http://www.climate4you.com/images/NSIDC%20GlobalArcticAntarctic%20SeaIceArea.gif

Reply to  Petit_Barde
July 30, 2020 8:42 am

It can’t be mor dramatic 😀

Michael Lemaire
July 30, 2020 8:27 am

There is a National Center studying polar ice in Goa??? I would expect India to spend their research funds on more relevant (for India) topics, just saying…

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  Michael Lemaire
July 30, 2020 10:13 am

Yes, some of the world’s best beaches are in Goa, and the locals will fetch and carry for you for a small tip. You don’t need to go to the coldest regions of the planet to make stuff up, errrr, I mean conduct research, when you can do it in your swimsuit whilst being served cocktails and fresh crab.

griff
July 30, 2020 8:36 am

I’ll just point out again that 2020 arctic sea ice is still at a record low for this date in July….

Where’s the article on that?

Svalbard is seeing record temperatures… again…

I’m still waiting for the recovery so many have prophesied in these comment columns…

Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 8:46 am

Any links about or just saying something ?

David Kamakaris
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 9:17 am

How long is your record, Griff?

MarkW
Reply to  David Kamakaris
July 30, 2020 9:59 am

Don’t you know, history started in 1979.

Reply to  David Kamakaris
July 30, 2020 10:01 am

From one mouth corner to the other 😀

Coeur de Lion
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 9:55 am

Griff, you would like to take my bet? Bank transfer preferred.

Phil.
Reply to  Coeur de Lion
August 1, 2020 8:58 pm

Coeur de Lion Arctic sea ice area is already below 4 million sq km.

MarkW
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 9:59 am

Didn’t you just finish saying that ice levels were lower 10,000 years ago?
So how can you claim that today’s levels are the lowest ever?

Scissor
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 10:08 am

I’ll wager a million that it’s not ice free this year or next.

John Tillman
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 10:45 am

Have you learned nothing from always being wrong in the past?

What matters to minimum summer Arctic sea ice extent is weather in August and September, not June or July. The record low year of 2012 experienced high winter maximum extent, but suffered a bad cyclone in late August, which spread out and piled up the ice, leading to the summer minimum low.

beng135
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 11:00 am

grifter says:
waiting for the recovery so many have prophesied in these comment columns…

Who’s done that? In fact, I predict late summers will be nearly ice-free in the year 2525, if man is still alive, if woman can survive.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  beng135
July 30, 2020 11:38 am

Yeah, but what about the year 3535?

beng135
Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 31, 2020 5:48 am

Taking alittle artistic license:

In the year 3535
Ain’t gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lies
Everything you think, do, and say
Is in the twitter-feed you plugged into your brain today

ht/ Zager and Evans

MarkW
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 11:45 am

Remember, this is the same griff who routinely proclaims that since Germany got 30% of it’s electric power for one second, once, then this proves that Germany is getting 30% of it’s power from electricity.

Climate believer
Reply to  griff
July 30, 2020 12:47 pm

“Svalbard is seeing record temperatures… again…”

So according to this weather site which use WMO data: https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/norway/longyearbyen/historic

the highest temperatures for the same dates (25th, 26th, 27th, 28th July) for the last 10 years are:

2020: 21°c, 20°c, 21°c, 20°c max 21°c
2019: 10°c, 11°c, 13°c, 14°c max 16°c
2018: 11°c, 10°c, 9°c, 9°c max 12°c
2017: 8°c, 8°c, 8°c, 8°c max 13°c
2016: 11°c, 12°c, 11°c, 9°c max 14°c
2015: 7°c, 7°c, 12°c, 8°c max 18°c
2014: 7°c, 9°c, 9°c, 8°c max 12°c
2013: 8°c, 8°c, 8°c, 9°c max 15°c
2012: 9°c, 6°c, 7°c, 9°c max 13°c
2011: 11°c, 10°c, 6°c, 7°c max 13°c
2010: 6°c, 8°c, 6°c, 9°c max 13°c

Forecast for the next 14 days sees temperatures returning to monthly normes around 10°c, 9°c and 7°c.

John Tillman
Reply to  Climate believer
July 30, 2020 1:25 pm

Longyearbyen broke a 41 year-old record on July 27. Looks like weather to me.

Of course, its population has boomed in recent years.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2019/11/sharpest-population-growth-decade-worlds-northernmost-town

Dunno where the temperature measuring station is located. The airport is about three klicks from town center.

Climate believer
Reply to  John Tillman
July 30, 2020 2:51 pm

“Looks like weather to me.”

Me too.

I would hazard a guess the weather station would likely be at the Svalbard satellite station here in google maps: 78.229772,15.407786

If it is, it’s away from any built up areas.

beng135
Reply to  Climate believer
July 31, 2020 8:08 am

Huh. And that’s after a bitter cold winter & major sea-ice around Svalbard…..

Mr.
July 30, 2020 8:39 am

Sea ice around the poles seems to be a distinctly ephemeral phenomenon.

Just ask those intrepid “researchers” from “The Ship Of Fools” who got stuck in the allegedly melted Antarctic sea ice a few years back.

beng135
Reply to  Mr.
July 30, 2020 10:38 am

Right. Just wait 6 months….

July 30, 2020 8:56 am

“If the decline of sea ice continues to accelerate at a rate of 13% per decade in September, the Arctic is likely to be free of ice within the next three decades,” Kumar says.

I doubt that very much. The arctic sea ice is ultimately responsive to solar irradiance via the tropics

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It’s all getting an early start w/Nino negative anomalies & 2 years of SN < 4 (annually). Look for ice growth before 2023, and near the end of SC25. This is what the start of a mini-ice age looks like (mild so far). A strong SC25 and SC26 can change this direction before the ice has a chance to thicken back more after 2023.

MarkW
Reply to  Bob Weber
July 30, 2020 10:01 am

13% per decade times 3 decades works out to 39%. Less if you consider the fact that each decades 13% is coming off a lower level.

So how can they claim that ice will be gone in 3 decades. Unless they just don’t know how to do math.

Bindidon
July 30, 2020 11:24 am

No idea where the author got his Arctic sea ice data from.

Here is NSIDC data (with 2020 till July 25), stored at colorado.edu:

– absolute data
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-rIi_Ml6yinPkUWPDFPz4VEy9BUX4fZL/view

– anomalies wrt 1981-2010
https://drive.google.com/file/d/14aCVpLgGzGekeDDUmw6sNYu0rPRiXh4d/view

Source
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/

J.-P. D.

Bindidon
Reply to  Bindidon
July 30, 2020 11:55 am

SIDADS’ daily data is nice to follow year by year, but has the drawback to be restricted to sea ice extent.

To obtain the sum of ice extent (at least 15 % ice) and area (100 % ice) we must select SIDADS’s monthly data.

An ascending sort of the September months gives for the top ten:

Year mth ext area sum

2012 9 3.57 2.41 5.98
2007 9 4.27 2.82 7.09
2016 9 4.51 2.86 7.37
2019 9 4.32 3.13 7.45
2011 9 4.56 3.21 7.77
2008 9 4.69 3.26 7.95
2017 9 4.80 3.30 8.10
2018 9 4.71 3.30 8.01
2010 9 4.87 3.34 8.21
2015 9 4.62 3.42 8.04

Source

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/monthly/data/

J.-P. D.

Tom Abbott
July 30, 2020 11:24 am

From the article: “Then, the team compared the decline to the previous four decades of data. “In the summer of 2018, the loss of sea ice was three times higher than the reported loss at the beginning of the satellite era,” says Kumar.”

Well, that would make sense since it was colder at the beginning of the satellite era (1979), than it is now, so it should be expected that there is less ice now, at almost the peak of the current warming, than during a cold period like in the 1970’s.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 30, 2020 12:03 pm

And “Thanks to higher temporal resolution and greater satellite coverage than had previously been available, they could also measure …”
So it’s really not apples to apples.

Tom Abbott
July 30, 2020 11:41 am

OT: I hear Herman Cain died today of the Wuhan virus. God Bless his Soul.

John Tillman
Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 30, 2020 12:57 pm

RIP.

At least three high risk groups, regardless of general health.

John Tillman
Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 30, 2020 12:58 pm

Yet another great American falls victim to the Communist Party of China.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  John Tillman
July 30, 2020 4:16 pm

Yes, and I should add: God Damn the Chicoms who killed Herman Cain.

John Tillman
Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 30, 2020 5:20 pm

That seems to be happening. The genocidal ghouls seem to be losing the Mandate of Heaven, which is why they’ve been scooping property in CA, OR, WA and BC:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/signs-of-food-crisis-in-china-bizarre-phenomenon-sees-summer-snow-in-beijing-us-forms-new-alliance_3443636.html

As if pestilence, rebellion, floods, famine and economic downturn weren’t enough signs of the gods’ displeasure!

Coeur de Lion
July 30, 2020 12:43 pm

Come on Griff, take my bet. If it’s below 4 million square kilometres I pay you £100. O’wise u pay me.

Bob Evans
July 30, 2020 12:44 pm

To confirm what has already been said. The National Snow & Ice Data Centre, show very
clearly that arctic sea ice extent has slowly increased over the past two years. and the decrease has slowed since about 2014.
Although arctic ice is thinner off the Russian coast, It is close to normal off the Canadian coast.
Where are the BBC reporters this year showing the retreating ice, they would need an Ice breaker this year.

Heinrich Wolter
July 30, 2020 12:59 pm

Due to numerous predictions the arctic should have been ice-free since at least 10 years. Is there any indication that this prediction is any better? Nuclear fusion will be able to create energy in 50 years time. That is what I was told 1977 and stil today. Same tale.

Robert of Texas
July 30, 2020 4:16 pm

“In the summer of 2018, the loss of sea ice was three times higher than the reported loss at the beginning of the satellite era,”

Someone please remind these people that the beginning of the satellite era just happened to coincide with the end of a brief global cooling period – the 1970’s. I remember all the hype about Global Cooling no matter how much they try to deny it now.

July 30, 2020 4:28 pm

“A snapshot of melting Arctic sea ice during the summer of 2018” is an article designed to alarm readers and not to inform them. It is designed to rally ill-informed and panicked people to swell the ranks of the Alarmists.
It assumes that people will prefer cold weather to warm weather which is statistically baseless.

meiggs
July 30, 2020 6:21 pm

85F below zero today down at the SP, thank goodness for S Cackalack.

July 30, 2020 9:25 pm

So what if sea ice melts? What’s the consequence. Well, sea level will fall. Is that bad/

MarkW
Reply to  John Grosse
July 31, 2020 7:47 am

If sea ice melts, it has no impact on sea levels.

migueldelrio
July 31, 2020 5:11 pm

JP Morgan said it best: “It will fluctuate.”

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