Quote of the Week: “Aqueous vapor [water vapor] is a blanket, more necessary to the vegetable life of England than clothing is to man. Remove for a single summer-night the aqueous vapor from the air which overspreads this country, and you would assuredly destroy every plant capable of being destroyed by a freezing temperature. The warmth of our fields and gardens would pour itself unrequited into space, and the sun would rise upon an island held fast in the iron grip of frost.” – John Tyndall (“Heat: A Mode of Motion”, 1861) [H/t William Happer]
Number of the Week: Daily change of 100⁰C (or daily change of 180⁰F)
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Greenhouse Warming: Last week, TWTW focused on a new book by Peter Webster, Dynamic of the Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans, reviewed by his spouse Judith Curry, formerly the chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. There are many issues that we do not understand about the tropics, which render climate modeling used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highly questionable and the US climate modeling efforts highly doubtful.
Writing in No Tricks Zone, Kenneth Richard brings up a new paper by Richard Lindzen, “An oversimplified picture of the climate behavior based on a single process can lead to distorted conclusions.” A retired professor at MIT, Lindzen was last year’s recipient of the Fredrick Seitz Memorial Award for exceptional courage in the quest for knowledge. The current work is an example of his courage. [Unfortunately, the paper, published in The European Physical Journal Plus, is paywalled, and TWTW relies on what was reproduced in No Tricks Zone.] Lindzen begins:
“Although it is often noted that greenhouse warming has long been found in the climate literature, it turns out that this was not generally considered a major cause of climate change until the 1980s.
“Many factors, including fluctuations of average cloud area and height, snow cover, ocean circulations, etc. commonly cause changes to the radiative budget comparable to that of doubling of CO2. For example, the net global mean cloud radiative effect is of the order of – 20 W/m squared [minus 20 watts per meter squared] (cooling effect). A 4 W/m squared forcing from a doubling of CO2, therefore, corresponds to only a 20% change in the net cloud effect.
“The ‘consensus’ assessment of this system is today the following:
“In this complex multifactor system, the climate (which, itself, consists in many variables – especially the temperature deference between the equator and the poles) is described by just one variable, the global averaged temperature change, and is controlled by the 1—2% perturbation in the energy budget due to a single variable (any single variable) among many variables of comparable importance. We go further and designate CO2 as the sole control Although we are not sure of the budget for this variable, we know precisely what policies to implement in order to control it.
“How did such a naïve seeming picture come to be accepted, not just by the proponents of the issue, but also by most skeptics?”
Lindzen gives his views on how this came about and discusses problems therein. In the blog Richard highlights certain points presented in the full paper:
“1. Doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration from 280 ppm to 560 ppm results in just a 1-2% perturbation to the Earth’s 240 W/m² energy budget. This doubled-CO2 effect has less than 1/5th of the impact that the net cloud effect has. And yet we are asked to accept the ‘implausible’ claim that change in one variable, CO2, is predominantly responsible for altering global temperatures.
“2. A causal role for CO2 ‘cannot be claimed’ for the glacial-to-interglacial warming events because CO2 variations follow rather than lead the temperature changes in paleoclimate records and the 100 ppm total increase over thousands of years produce ‘about 1 W/m²’ of total radiative impact.
“3. Climate science didn’t used to be alarmist prior to the late 1980s. Scientists were instead sufficiently skeptical about claims of climatically-induced planetary doom. That changed during the years 1988-1994, when climate research centered on CO2 and global warming received a 15-fold increase in funding in the US alone. Suddenly there was a great financial incentive to propel alarming global warming scenarios.
“4. Concepts like ‘polar amplification’ are ‘imaginary’.
“‘The change in equator-to-pole temperature difference was attributed to some imaginary ‘polar amplification,’ whereby the equator-pole temperature automatically followed the mean temperature. Although the analogy is hardly exact, this is not so different from assuming that flow in a pipe depends on the mean pressure rather than the pressure gradient.’”
In short, although considered complex, the climate models oversimplify critical parts of the climate system, making the models unreliable. Lindzen’s findings are similar to those of Webster in last week’s TWTW: Critical parts of the climate system are over-simplified, and a minor part (CO2) is over-emphasized. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy
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The Shape of Water: In an open access paper in The European Physical Journal Plus, Geoffrey Vallis of the University of Exeter, brings up the problems of modeling water vapor and methane which have phase changes. According to his web site, the interests of Vallis “are in climate dynamics and planetary atmospheres, and my work varies between basic research in geophysical fluid dynamics and more applied modeling of various aspects of the oceans, atmospheres, or climate, although distinguishing between these subfields can sometimes be quite arbitrary.” The abstract of the article “The Trouble with Water: Condensation, Circulation and Climate” states:
“This article discusses at a basic level a few of the problems that arise in geophysical fluid dynamics and climate that are associated with the presence of moisture in the air, its condensation and release of latent heat. Our main focus is Earth’s atmosphere, but we also discuss how these problems might manifest themselves on other planetary bodies, with particular attention to Titan where methane takes on the role of water. Geophysical fluid dynamics has traditionally been concerned with understanding the very basic problems that lie at the foundation of dynamical meteorology and oceanography. Conventionally, and a little ironically, the subject mainly considers ‘dry’ fluids, meaning it does not concern itself overly much with phase changes. The subject is often regarded as dry in another way because it does not consider problems perceived as relevant to the real world, such as clouds or rainfall, which have typically been the province of complicated numerical models. Those models often rely on parameterizations of unresolved processes, parameterizations that may work very well but that often have a semiempirical basis. The consequent dichotomy between the foundations and the applications prevents progress being made that has both a secure basis in scientific understanding and a relevance to the Earth’s climate, especially where moisture is concerned. The dichotomy also inhibits progress in understanding the climate of other planets, where observations are insufficient to tune the parameterizations that weather and climate models for Earth rely upon, and a more fundamental approach is called for. Here, we discuss four diverse examples of the problems with moisture: the determination of relative humidity and cloudiness; the transport of water vapor and its possible change under global warming; the moist shallow water equations and the Madden–Julian Oscillation; and the hydrology cycle on other planetary bodies.”
The phase changes of water require or give off considerable heat. Under a standard atmosphere, the melting of ice, alone, requires 79.7 calories per gram (cal/gm) or 334 kJ/kg, which does not include heating of the ice to bring it to melting temperature. The vaporization of water to water vapor (steam) requires 539 cal/gm or 2260 kJ/kg, which does not include the heat required to bring water to a boiling (vaporizing) point.
Except in a laboratory, there is no such thing as dry air on earth, much less “dry fluids”, yet climate modelers assume their existence, then try to guess at what the influence of physical air and water, including phase changes, would be on their models after they created the models using imaginary air. This is a major reason why climate models must be tested against physical evidence, not against similar models. See links under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Heat Exposure: The JAMA network, formerly known as the Journal of the American Medical Association produced a “peer reviewed”, highly questionable meta-analysis claiming that heat and pollution present serious health risks particularly to black expectant mothers. It appears to be another meta-study lacking rigor. Have issues such as smoking, alcohol intake, drug use, pre-natal care, body weight and BMI of the mother been eliminated? Steve Milloy writes:
“While it is true that African-Americans as a group have suffered at a proportionately greater rate from COVID-19 – as well as many other illnesses – than other population groups, this has nothing to do with the environment so much as it does with poverty, education and the increased rate of co-morbidities that go along with those two problems.”
The heat issue prompts one to ask how humanity survived in the tropics, where it evolved? Also, the combined pollution and heat issue prompts the question, how did African-Americans survive in the American South, without air conditioning, and the roads were unpaved,
dusty, until the 1960s and 70s? See links under Health, Energy, and Climate and Other News that May Be of Interest.
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Tree Rings, Again? As discussed by Paul Homewood, a review of a new book, Tree Story: the History of the World Written in Rings brings up how tree rings may provide answers to questions about history.
“Unlike carbon14-dating, which can only offer a temporal range, tree rings pinpoint the conditions for a precise year, even the beginning or end of the season. Cross-referencing with known events has helped add a missing climate element to history. The disappearance, for instance, of the pioneering English colony at Roanoke in North Carolina had long baffled historians; after three years, in 1590, a relief ship arrived to find everyone gone. Tree-ring analysis has confirmed not only the intervening years as ones of drought but as the most extreme dry period on the eastern seaboard in the last eight centuries.
“Dendrochronology has also helped explain such curiosities as a dip in Caribbean piracy in the 17th century (a spate of hurricanes), riots in Ptolemaic Egypt (rain failure), the Ottoman crisis of the early 17th century and the rise and fall of the Mayan, Mongolian and Uyghur empires. When, a few years ago, Stradivari’s famous Messiah violin was deemed a copy, it was analysis of the rings in its wood that confirmed its authenticity.”
Unfortunately, the reviewer for the UK Spectator falls into the Mann trap, the hockey-stick. As Homewood writes:
“Somehow what starts as a perfectly sensible review morphs into Michael Mann and his discredited hockey stick!
“But, as the review itself admits, tree rings tell you more about rainfall than temperature, Indeed, in a much better review in Newsweek, we read how the book reveals in detail the effect that a long period of drought had on the declining Roman Empire in the 4thC.
“In fact, Mann’s Hockey Stick was hopelessly flawed in many ways. (I would recommend Andrew Montford’s book, ‘The Hockey Stick Illusion’, for anyone interested.
“For a start, the Hockey Stick was based on shonky [questionable] statistics, which were guaranteed to produce a hockey stick curve regardless of the data fed into it. This was because of the way Mann used Principal Component analysis. In simple terms, Mann’s statistics blew out of all proportion any data which showed a hockey stick effect and ignored all other data.
“Secondly, as far as tree rings were concerned, it was heavily dependent on bristlecone pines. It has long been known that the marked increase in bristlecone growth in the 19th and 20thC is due to CO2 fertilization, not temperature. When bristlecones are taken out of Mann’s analysis. the hockey stick disappears.
“Thirdly, when tree ring and other proxy data diverged from rising temperature data in the late 20thC, Mann ignored the proxies and spliced the temperature data onto his graph.
“There are also a whole host of other major flaws in the Hockey Stick, not related to tree rings. Homewood links to works by McKitrick and McIntyre. See links under Oh Mann!
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
Since 2012, SEPP conducted an annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
- The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
- The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
- The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
- The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.
The eight past recipients, Lisa Jackson (12), Barrack Obama (13), John Kerry (14), Ernest Moniz (15), Michael Mann (16), Christiana Figueres (17), Jerry Brown (18), and AOC (19) are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on June 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you.
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Largely ignored in the global warming controversy is how important greenhouse gases are in keeping the land masses of Earth inhabitable. Yet in 1861, greenhouse gas pioneer John Tyndall understood the critical role the major greenhouse gas, water vapor, plays in keeping land masses warm enough for life on Earth. (See Quote of the Week) This knowledge has been lost in the noise of global warming fears since the 1980s.
Thus, it is useful to recognize the stability greenhouse gases give to Earth by comparing the temperature swings near the equator of the Earth with a nearby planet that has limited greenhouse gases, Mars. Mars has a daily rotation of 24.6 hours, similar to that of Earth. The primary gas in the atmosphere is carbon dioxide, 95% and it has very little water vapor, while the atmosphere of Earth is 0.04% carbon dioxide with about 1.5% water vapor (ranging from about 1% to 4%)
Since 1997, there have been 4 US rovers on Mars. The first one lasted a few months, the second one landed in January 2004 and operated until March 2010, the third one also landed in January 2004, and operated until June 2018, the fourth one landed in August 2012 and continues to operate.
Based on measurements, near the equator of Mars, the daily temperature fluctuation is about 100⁰C (180⁰F), from a high of about 21⁰C (70⁰F) at midday to minus 79⁰C (minus 110⁰F) the same night. [During polar winters, not on the equator, surface frost can form at night, giving evidence of limited water vapor.]
Using Wikipedia, TWTW reviewed the reported temperatures of locations, near the equator, near the centers of land masses of Africa and South America. The results are:
Kisangani, Democratic Republic of Congo, from BBC Weather Centre (No time period given)
0 degrees, 31 minutes North
Elevation 447 m (1467 ft)
Population 1,602,144 (2015)
March average high 31⁰C (88⁰F) average low 21⁰C (70⁰F) Mean monthly hours Sunshine: 187
June – average high 30⁰C (84⁰F) average low 21⁰C (70⁰F) Mean monthly hours Sunshine: 150
September– average high 29⁰C (84⁰F) average low 20⁰C (68⁰F) Sunshine hours: 186
December– average high 30⁰C (84⁰F) average low 20⁰C (68⁰F) Sunshine hours: 155
Heaviest rain period September to November with October 218mm (8.6 Inches)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kisangani
and
Boa Vista, Brazil from Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (1981-2010 normal)
2 degrees 49 min N
Population 375,374
Elevation 90 m (300 ft)
March average high 34.2⁰C (93.6) average low 24.3⁰C (75.7⁰F) Sunshine hours: 142
June – Average high 31.2⁰C (88.2) average low 23.1⁰C (73.6⁰F) Sunshine hours: 93.5
September– average high 34.2⁰C (93.6) average low 24.2⁰C (75.6⁰F) Sunshine hours: 200.7
December– average high 33.8⁰C (92.8) average low 24.3⁰C (75.7⁰F) Sunshine hours: 173.5
Heavy rain in the May to August, 321.3 mm (12.65 in) in June
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boa_Vista,_Roraima
CONCLUSION: Compared to Mars, with little atmosphere and the primary gas being CO2, the stability (lack of variation) of daily temperatures on Earth is remarkable. As Tyndall implied, without the greenhouse effect, the nighttime temperatures on Earth’s land masses would be well below freezing, preventing growth of vegetation. Yet the UN IPCC and others claim a small increase in the greenhouse effect, occurring at night, will be dangerous to human health?
See links:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_rover
https://mars.nasa.gov/mer/spotlight/20070612.html
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Censorship
Twitter Censorship Update
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 17, 2020
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/06/twitter-censorship-update-2/
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/publications/SeaLevelRiseCCRII.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy
MIT’s Dr. Lindzen Pokes Fun At The ‘Naïve’, Well-Funded ‘Scientific Reasoning’ That 1 Factor – CO2 – Controls Climate
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, June 15, 2020
Link to paper: An oversimplified picture of the climate behavior based on a single process can lead to distorted conclusions
By Richard S. Lindzen, The European Physical Journal Plus, June 3, 2020
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00471-z
Climate Statistics 101: see the Slide Show AOC Tried, and Failed, to Censor
Video, By Caleb Rossiter, CO2 Coalition, Via WUWT, June 18, 2020
Climate Matters: A Climate of Fear about Climate Conversations (w/Michelle Stirling)
45 minute video, June 18, 2020
Seeking if the science is settled.
[SEPP Comment: Interrupted by ads. Ms. Stirling discusses Risky Business built on the most extreme scenario by the IPCC.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
World has six months to avert climate crisis, says energy expert
International Energy Agency chief warns of need to prevent post-lockdown surge in emissions
By Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, June 18, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to report: Shaping a secure and sustainable energy future for all.
By Staff, EIA, 2020
“In a report published on Thursday, the IEA – the world’s gold standard for energy analysis – set out the first global blueprint for a green recovery, focusing on reforms to energy generation and consumption. Wind and solar power should be a top focus, the report advised, alongside energy efficiency improvements to buildings and industries, and the modernisation of electricity grids.”
[SEPP Comment: The “world’s gold standard for energy analysis” may be selling fool’s gold.]
UN: Covid-19, Climate Change and Racial Justice are all Linked
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 15, 2020
Covid-19 pandemic is ‘fire drill’ for effects of climate crisis, says UN official
Lise Kingo says social equality issues must be part of sustainable development agenda
By Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, June 15, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to UN Global Compact Leaders Summit, June 15 & 16
https://www.unglobalcompact.org/
A War Against Climate Science, Waged by Washington’s Rank and File
By Lisa Friedman, NYT, June 15, 2020
“A case in point: When John Crusius, a research chemist at the United States Geological Survey, published an academic paper on natural solutions to climate change in April, his government affiliation never appeared on it. It couldn’t.”
[SEPP Comment: Insisting the place of employment of the author not appear on a paper is equivalent to censoring it? Perhaps there has been too much non-science from NASA-GISS and NOAA contradicted by physical evidence.]
Restrictions on science not limited to Trump administration’s highest ranks: report
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, June 15, 2020
See link immediately above. [SEPP Comment: Is each complaining employee saying his / hers work is pure science? Far too much EPA work is political science, not related to physical evidence.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The Climate Campaign Is Less And Less About The Climate
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, June 18, 2020
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-6-18-biyb4kqu2wfj71beidexgg8exbk437
[SEPP Comment: Does a US District Judge in Montana have jurisdiction in Virginia?]
The Green Civil War
By Joel Kotkin, Real Clear Energy, June 18, 2020
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/06/18/the_green_civil_war_496728.html
[SEPP Comment: Partly reviewing Michael Shellenberger’s new book, “Apocalypse Never.”
Congrats! US, Sweden, Australia have more climate “deniers” than anywhere
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 17, 2020
Wealth: It is a difficult concept
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 17, 2020
“Politicians being famously good at saying one thing, doing another and thinking a third, the EU response to the wealth-destroying impact of climate policies has been to fudge, for instance exempting the aviation industry from tough rules in the hopes of reviving tourism.”
Deep Learning’s Climate Change Problem
By Rob Toews, Forbes, June 17, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robtoews/2020/06/17/deep-learnings-climate-change-problem/#55d9b2256b43
“The bottom line: AI has a meaningful carbon footprint today, and if industry trends continue it will soon become much worse. Unless we are willing to reassess and reform today’s AI research agenda, the field of artificial intelligence could become an antagonist in the fight against climate change in the years ahead.”
[SEPP Comment: Unreliable power is of no help. With a power outage, what is being processed disappears.]
After Paris!
Despite pandemic China increases coal production, has 5,000 coal mines, and a glut of new plants
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 19, 2020
China’s New Coal Push As Relations With West Sour
By Staff, Bloomberg, Via GWPF, June 16, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/chinas-new-coal-push-as-relations-with-west-sour/
India Unleashing Coal: PM Modi Announces New Coal Boom, Privatisation Of Coal Mines
By Staff, IANS News Service, Via GWPF, June 18, 2020
Change in US Administrations
Toward Serious Reform of Benefit/Cost Analysis Under the Clean Air Act
By Benjamin Zycher, Real Clear Markets, June 17, 2020
Trump administration sued over marine monument rollback
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 17, 2020
“President Trump issued a proclamation this month that would reopen the Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monument, 130 miles off the coast of Massachusetts, for commercial fishing.”
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Disclosure of climate-related financial risks not enough to drive action
News Release, by Griffith University, June 15, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2020-06-disclosure-climate-related-financial-action.html
Link to paper: Climate-related financial disclosures in the public sector
By Edwards, Yapp, Mackay & Mackey, Nature Climate Change, May 25, 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0785-1
Seeking a Common Ground
Mass spectrometry and climate science. Part I: Determining past climates
By Roland Hirsch, Climate Etc. June 16, 2020
Some Random Quantum Thoughts
Guest post by Rud Istvan, WUWT, June 19, 2020
The Trouble with Water: Condensation, Circulation and Climate
By Geoffrey K. Vallis, The European Physical Journal Plus, June 8, 2020
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00493-7
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Sky News: Aussie Royal Commission to Investigate how Climate Activists “Hijacked” Forestry Management
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 19, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Highlights the difference between studying the physical world as compared with studying the modeled world!]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Long-term Carbon Accumulation Rates of Two Alaska Peatlands
Taylor, L.S., Swindles, G.T., Morris, P.J., Galka, M. and Green, S.M. 2019. Evidence for ecosystem state shifts in Alaskan continuous permafrost peatlands in response to recent warming. Quaternary Science Reviews 207: 134-144. June 19, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/jun/a9.php
“The greatly enhanced sequestration of carbon by the peatlands in modern times was attributed by the authors to the recent warming observed since the end of the Little Ice Age, leading them to conclude ‘our work demonstrates that some Arctic peatlands may become more productive with future regional warming, subsequently increasing their ability to sequester carbon,’ adding that ‘as the Arctic continues to warm, peatlands in the continuous permafrost zone may become an increasingly important carbon sink.’ And this latter conclusion is a far cry from the model projections cited by the authors of the Arctic becoming a net carbon source by the mid-2020s!”
A 423-year Moisture Reconstruction for San Luis Potosi, Mexico
Villanueva-Díaz, J., Stahle, D.W., Therrell, M.D., Beramendi-Orosco, L., Estrada-Ávalos, J., Martínez-Sifuentes, A.R., Astudillo-Sánchez, C.C., Cervantes-Martínez, R. and Cerano-Paredes, J. 2020. The climatic response of baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum Ten.) in San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Trees 34: 623-635. June 17, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/jun/a8.php
“The observed cyclic nature of the reconstruction, coupled with what appears to be an absence of any trend in the data, suggests that rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2 have had no measurable impact on droughts or pluvials in the region of San Luis Potosi over the past 423 years. And that suggests no vindication for the models’ projections on moisture. Rather, it points toward their invalidation in this regard!”
No Response of a Toxic Algae to Ocean Acidification and Warming
Li, P.F., Yang, G.P., Liu, C.Y. 2020. Combined effects of elevated temperature and pCO2 on the production of DMSP and DMS in the culture of Amphidinium carterae. Journal of Applied Phycology doi.org/10.1007/s10811-020-02058-8. June 15, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/jun/a7.php
“The above findings represent good news given the toxic nature of this species and its ability to cause red tides. But you probably won’t find any acidification alarmists publicizing or rejoicing at it!”
Model Issues
We caught bacteria from the most pristine air on earth to help solve a climate modeling mystery
By Kathryn Moore, Jun Uetake and Thomas Hill, The Conversation, Via Phys.org. June 19, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2020-06-caught-bacteria-pristine-air-earth.html
“But due to how remote the Southern Ocean is, there have been very few actual studies of the clouds there. Because of this lack of data, computer models that simulate present and future climates overpredict how much sunlight reaches the ocean surface compared to what satellites actually observe. The main reason for this inaccuracy is due to how the models simulate clouds, but nobody knew exactly why the clouds were off. For the models to run correctly, researchers needed to understand how the clouds were being formed.”
Model Failures: Inflated Pandemic Estimates Weaken Climate Forecasts
By Adam Creighton, The Australian, Via GWPF, June 17, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/model-failures-inflated-pandemic-estimates-weaken-climate-forecasts/
“It’s remarkable we put so much faith in expert models, given their history of failure.”
Video: How simple math can help predict the melting of sea ice
By Charles Rotter, The Conversation, Via WUWT, June 16, 2020
Measurement Issues — Surface
Beware of Crazy Snowpack Percentages!
By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, June 18, 2020
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/06/beware-of-crazy-snow-totals-percentages.html
This Date In 1917 – 128 Degrees At Ojai, California
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 16, 2020
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/06/this-date-in-1917-128-degrees-at-ojai-california/
1919 or 2019? Kingston Edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 17, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/06/17/1919-or-2019-kingston-edition/
Changing Weather
What has caused more extreme summer heat events over northeast Asia?
News Release by Chinese Academy of Sciences, June 15, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2020-06-extreme-summer-events-northeast-asia.html
Link to paper: Attribution of the record-breaking heat event over Northeast Asia in summer 2018: the role of circulation
By Ren, Zhou, and Zhang, Environmental Research Letters, May 12, 2020
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8032
Massive Saharan dust plume headed for the Gulf of Mexico, Florida
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, June 18, 2020
Are Weekends Wetter than Weekdays?
By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, June 13, 2020
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/06/are-weekends-wetter-than-weekdays.html
Changing Seas
Mangroves at risk of collapse if emissions not reduced by 2050, international scientists predict
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 17, 2020
Link to paper:Thresholds of mangrove survival under rapid sea level rise
By N. Saintilan, et al. Science, June 5, 2020
From the write-up: “They reviewed data on mangrove accretion 10,000 to 7000 years before present, when the rate of sea level rise was even higher than today as a result of glacial ice melt. Their analysis suggests an upper threshold of 7 millimeters per year as the maximum rate of sea level rise associated with mangrove vertical development, beyond which the ecosystem fails to keep up with the change.”
[SEPP Comment: What about the period 16,000 to 9,000 years ago, when sea level rise was far more rapid?]
What if NASA’s new ocean satellite finds sea level rise isn’t the problem it’s touted to be?
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, June 16, 2020
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
My polar bear podcast interview with Anthony Watts from WUWT
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, June 19, 2020
No early breakup for W Hudson Bay sea ice again this year: polar bears still on the ice
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, June 14, 2020
Alaska Global Warming Update
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 19, 2020
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/06/alaska-global-warming-update/
Greenland’s Summer Melt Late Starting
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 19, 2020
A possible explanation for why West Antarctica is warming faster than East Antarctica
By Bob Yirka , Phys.org, June 15, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2020-06-explanation-west-antarctica-faster-east.html
Link to paper: The internal origin of the west-east asymmetry of Antarctic climate change
By Sang-Yoon Jun, June 12, 2020
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/24/eaaz1490
[SEPP Comment: Discusses feedbacks but not the possible cause of the warming such as geothermal activity in the West Antarctic under the ice.]
Natural Climate Change in Antarctica Is No News!
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, June 18, 2020
Changing Earth
Coal-burning in Siberia after volcanic eruption led to climate change 250 million years ago
News Release, Arizona State University, June 16, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200616135818.htm
Link to paper: Field evidence for coal combustion links the 252 Ma Siberian Traps with global carbon disruption
By.T. Elkins-Tanton, et al, Geology, June 12, 2020
From the news release: “Calculations of sea water temperature indicate that at the peak of the extinction, the Earth underwent lethally hot global warming, in which equatorial ocean temperatures exceeded 104 degrees Fahrenheit. It took millions of years for ecosystems to be re-established and for species to recover.”
[SEPP Comment: No relationship between CO2 concentrations and ocean temperatures presented! Speculation!]
Acidic Waters
Arctic Ocean acidification worse than previously expected
News Release, University of Bern, June 17, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-06/uob-aoa061720.php
Link to paper: Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century
By Jens Terhaar, Nature, June 17, 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2360-3
[SEPP Comment: Exaggeration greater than previously exaggerated? Use extreme language to claim extreme results from using extreme models of CO2 emissions – modern climate science?]
A carbon sink shrinks in the arctic
UD researchers show Canada Basin’s diminished capacity to absorb carbon dioxide
News Release, University of Delaware, June 15, 2020
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-06/uod-acs061520.php
[SEPP Comment: So Arctic waters are not absorbing as much CO2 and lowering pH as what was once feared?]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Could entomophagy end U.S. and African protein shortages?
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, June 16, 2020
Is There Bias In How We Judge GMOs?
By Chuck Dinerstein, ACSH, June 10, 2020
https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/10/there-bias-how-we-judge-gmos-14839
Lowering Standards
UK is no longer a ‘wet and rainy’ country, head of Environment Agency says
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 19, 2020
IEA: ‘Green’ coronavirus recovery would keep global emissions below 2019 peak
By Josh Gabbatiss, Carbon Brief, June 18, 2020
[SEPP Comment: The EIA and the World Bank display that their analyses cannot be accepted at face value.]
Rock around the thermometer
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 17, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/06/17/rock-around-the-thermometer/
“In ‘Climate Fwd,’ the megawoke newsletter of the New York Times, Kendra Pierre-Louis discusses increasing references to climate change in American popular music. Which is the sort of thing that tends to give the social sciences a bad name.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
We are all going to die
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 17, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/06/17/we-are-all-going-to-die/
“‘Collapse of Civilisation is the Most Likely Outcome’: Top Climate Scientists”.
“It’s because ‘reputable’ journalistic sources accept this ‘delicate balance’ claim that they cannot see through, and instead endorse, all these hysterical claims that one misstep and it’s all over, the thing is smashed, we’ve tipped over the tipping points and we… are… all… going… to… die.”
Amazing Noctilucent Clouds
By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, June 20, 2020
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/06/amazing-noctilucent-clouds.html
[SEPP Comment; Strongly question the graph showing hockey-stick style increases in atmospheric methane since the year 1000! How was atmospheric methane measured for the past 1000 years?]
Claim: Surgical General Anaesthetic is Contributing to Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, June 17, 2020
Link to paper: ‘Green-gional’ anesthesia: the non-polluting benefits of regional anesthesia to decrease greenhouse gases and attenuate climate change
By Mausam Kuvadia, et al, BMJ Journals, May 6, 2020
https://rapm.bmj.com/content/early/2020/05/06/rapm-2020-101452
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Claim: People Believe in Global Warming, But Choose Not to Act
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 20, 2020
The number of climate deniers in Australia is more than double the global average, new survey finds
By Caroline Fisher and Sora Park, The Conversation, Via Phys.Org, June 16, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2020-06-climate-deniers-australia-global-average.html
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
The Swedish Teenager Interfering in Canadian Politics
Democracy dies when activists wield more influence than voters.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, June 15, 2020
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2020/06/15/the-swedish-teenager-interfering-in-canadian-politics/
Questioning European Green
The European Green Deal is a Bad Deal
By Marcus Holtkoetter: Altenberge, Germany, AG Web, June 14, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.agweb.com/blog/european-green-deal-bad-deal
No Wind, No Sun–But Plenty Of Gas & Nuclear!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 19, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/06/16/no-wind-no-sun-but-plenty-of-gas-nuclear/
“And what do we get for £10bn worth of renewable subsidies?
“A load of capacity which often is next to useless, and a grid which still relies on gas and nuclear for 82% of demand, and a further 9% from biomass which could have been obtained at half the price from burning coal instead!”
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Change How You Live
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, June 19, 2020
https://ddears.com/2020/06/19/change-how-you-live/
Time to Abandon Progressive Democrats’ Climate Change Wish Lists
By Frank Lasee, Inside Sources, June 18, 2020
https://www.insidesources.com/time-to-abandon-progressive-democrats-climate-change-wish-lists/
Green Jobs
Clean energy industry sheds 27,000 jobs in May
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 16, 2020
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/503022-clean-energy-industry-sheds-27000-jobs-in-may
“Energy efficiency, the largest clean energy sector, also lost a greater number of jobs than other parts of the energy sector, losing 18,900 jobs. Nearly y 4,300 jobs in renewable electric power generation were also lost.”
[SEPP Comment: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total US job loss in May was about 8 million! See link immediately below.]]
Non-Green Jobs
The U.S. Has Already Lost More Than 100,000 Oil And Gas Jobs
By Staff, Rystad Energy, Via Oil price.com June 14, 2020
Funding Issues
ROSS CLARK: From Ethiopian girl band to Kenyans listening to toads… how staff at Dfid spent YOUR millions
Boris Johnson made the call to abolish the standalone Department for International Development (Dfid)
Millions of taxpayers’ money has been going overseas to questionable sources
The Ethiopian ‘Spice Girls’, palm oil plantations and Nigeria’s solar industry have all benefitted from payments
By Ross Clark, Daily Mail, June 16, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
Trust us, it’s for your own good
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 17, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/06/17/trust-us-its-for-your-own-good/
Democrats unveil $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan
By Rebecca Bitsch, The Hill, June 18, 2020
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/503427-democrats-unveil-15-trillion-infrastructure-plan
Litigation Issues
Supreme Court ruling seen as boon to natural gas pipelines
By Amy Harder, Axios, June 16, 2020
“Justice Clarence Thomas, writing for the majority, said under the lower court ruling that Monday’s decision overturned, any pipeline crossing at similar “footpaths” controlled by the Park Service would need an act of Congress for approval.
“21 such footpaths exist across the country comprising at least tens of thousands of miles, per Thomas’ opinion, according to Gary Kruse, managing director of research at LawIQ, an energy regulatory analytics and advisory firm.”
[SEPP Comment: Not to mention the hundreds of roads, transmission lines, and even the Erie Canal!]
Supreme Court Decision Big Win for Energy—and America
Ben Lieberman. CEI, June 15, 2020
https://cei.org/blog/supreme-court-decision-big-win-energy%E2%80%94and-america
A Few More Thoughts On The Very Stupid Oil-As-Nuisance Litigations
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, June 13, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Explaining the legal tactics the litigation lawyers use to bring nuisance litigation against oil companies. And the lawyers call the companies greedy?]
Montana judge upholds ruling that canceled Keystone XL pipeline permit
By Timothy Gardner, Reuters, May 11, 2020
[SEPP Comment: The judge in question is the Chief United States District Judge of the United States District Court for the District of Montana.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Dummies Guide To Renewable Subsidies
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 13, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/06/13/dummies-guide-to-renewable-subsidies/
[SEPP Comment: How subsidies are paid.]
Dummies Guide To Renewable Subsidies–Part II
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 16, 2020
[SEPP Comment; How much the subsidies cost the public.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Criteria Pollutant Emissions and Precursors Decline 7 Percent Under Trump
By Marlo Lewis, CEI, June 12, 2020
https://cei.org/blog/criteria-pollutant-emissions-and-precursors-decline-7-percent-under-trump
EPA faces suit over plan to release genetically engineered mosquitoes
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 15, 2020
Several groups, including the Center for Food Safety, the International Center for Technology Assessment and Friends of the Earth filed a notice of intent to sue on Friday.
[SEPP Comment: Center for Food Safety wants mosquitoes?]
Energy Issues – Non-US
In-depth: BP data reveals clean electricity matched coal for the first time in 2019
By Simon Evans, Carbon Brief, June 18, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Mixing apples with oranges. As explained in the May 23 TWTW, the EIA cautions against comparing dispatchable generation with non-dispatchable. Only in a fantasy world do wind and solar work 24/7.]
German Power Prices Climb 116% Since Year 2000 …Government Levies, Taxes Tripled!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, June 14, 2020
Energy Issues – Australia
It Doesn’t Have to be This Way: Australia’s Energy Crisis, America’s Energy Surplus
By Alex Robson, The United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney, 2020
SA: Still at risk of blackout, one third of solar PV “switching off” to save state, needs $1.5b interconnector bandaid to NSW
Why do so few see the enormous subsidy cost of keeping the South Australian electricity experiment alive?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 19, 2020
“That’s a $1,500,000,000 repair bill for an unreliable system that cost a fortune to build, but is unsustainable without a giant bandaid.”
Energy Issues — US
Virginia’s latest folly — offshore wind power
By David Wojick, CFACT, June 18, 2020
https://www.cfact.org/2020/06/18/virginias-latest-folly-offshore-wind-power/
Colorado Utility Will Close Coal Plant 16 Years Early
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, June 16, 2020
CLIMATE CHANGED: Oregon bids goodbye to coal power
By Nick Rosenberger EO Media Group/Catalyst Journalism Project, June 13, 2020 [H/t Ken Schlichte]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Rolls-Royce triggers £250bn nuclear race: Huge boost for economy if UK consortium gets go-ahead to build fleet of mini reactor plants
By Neil Craven, Financial Mail, June 13, 2020
OPG Becomes First Utility to Snag Ownership Stake in Nuclear Microreactor Project
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, June 16, 2020
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
PM Modi’s mega international grid plan a key pillar of poverty alleviation, energy access agenda: Amitabh Kant
“This is a path-breaking project and has a big vision. Solar energy is the future, grid management will be critical. This is the future of energy in the coming era,” Kant said speaking at the ETEnergyworld Virtual Roundtable on Solar Energy Storage & Inter-Continental Grids
By Staff, Energy Times, June 20, 2020
“In phase I, the middle east, South Asia and South East Asia will be inter-connected. In the second phase, solar and other renewable energy resource-rich regions will be inter-connected. In the second phase, solar and other renewable energy resource-rich regions will be inter-connected.”
“’For example, the North Sea is rich in wind and the Sahara is rich in solar. And in the third phase, we would vie for the global interconnection of the power transmission grid to achieve the One Sun One World One Grid vision,’ he said.”
Study: Hundreds of ‘protected areas’ threatened by renewable energy
Green agenda will create ‘increasing pressure’ on wilderness regions
By Staff, WND, June 14, 2020
Link to study: Renewable energy development threatens many globally important biodiversity areas
By José Andrés Rehbein, Global Change Biology, March 2020
In Iowa, conservative group looks to counter local wind, solar opposition
By Karen Uhlenhuth, Energy News, June 17, 2020
“‘We’re protecting private property rights,’ said Nick Boeyink, Land & Liberty’s Iowa field operations director. ‘There are lots of landowners that, with bad policy, wouldn’t have the freedom to receive income on their land. They should be allowed to do with that land what they please.’”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Green Haste Will Trash The Promise Of Hydrogen
Press Release, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, June 19, 2020
Link to report: Hydrogen: The Once And Future Fuel
By John Constable, GWPF, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2020/06/Hydrogen-Fuel.pdf
Call For UK Hydrogen Strategy
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 18, 2020
“There’s going to be a long queue forming for all of these billions of public funds promised to turbocharge growth. Yesterday it was the turn of the Hydrogen Strategy Now group to push their way to the front of the line:”
Hydrogen May Be a Lifeline for Nuclear—But It Won’t Be Easy
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, June 11, 2020
Germany’s Climate Friendly Hydrogen Strategy
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 22, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Estimates the energy loss of this scheme to be about 60%.]
Germany plans to spend billions funding green hydrogen
By Maz Plechinger, Energy Watch, EU, June 10, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
https://energywatch.eu/EnergyNews/Policy___Trading/article12209986.ece
Britain’s Dirty Secret Of Subsidised Wood-Fired Power Plants
By Staff, The Times, Via GWPF, June 15, 2020
Folly: Germany Plans To Convert Coal Power Plant To Burn 100-Year Old Trees In Minutes!
By Die kalte Sonne, (Translated/edited by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, June 16, 2020
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Climate emission killer: construction begins on world’s biggest liquid air battery
Exclusive: project will store renewable energy and reduce climate-heating emissions
By Damian Carrington, The Guardian, June 18, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
“The Highview battery will store 250MWh of energy, almost double the amount stored by the biggest chemical battery, built by Tesla in South Australia.
“The project will cost £85m, and Highview received £35m of investment from the Japanese machinery giant Sumitomo in February.”
[SEPP Comment: Peanuts compared to Bath County pumped hydro with 24,000 Megawatt hours (MWh) but it needs reliable nuclear and coal fired plants to recharge.]
Guardian’s Energy Storage Delusion
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 18, 2020
“As I revealed last October, this new Highview plant will store only 250 MWh. This, as anyone with the slightest knowledge of the power system will tell you, is a pitifully small amount. On a normal day, demand is close to 1 million MWh, so you would need 4000 Highviews to cover that if we did not have proper backup capacity for when renewables were not producing.”
See link immediately above.
Plunging Renewable Energy Prices Mean U.S. Can Hit 90% Clean Electricity By 2035 – At No Extra Cost
By Silvio Marcacci, Forbes, June 9, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Repeating the fiction by the Goldman School of Public Policy. The demonstration on El Hierro using wind with pumped hydro storage failed, but it will work in a nation 30,000 times the population? The demonstration on King Island using wind and solar, with multiple types of storage failed, but it will work in a country with 200,000 times the population?]
California Dreaming
PG&E pleads guilty to 84 felony counts of involuntary manslaughter in 2018 Camp Fire
By J. Edward Moreno, The Hill, June 16, 2020
ARTICLE XII PUBLIC UTILITIES [SECTION 1 – SEC. 9]
[SEPP Comment: According Article XII, Section 3 of the state constitution, as a public utility PG&E is a public utility subject to control by the legislature. Will the legislature be held accountable?]
In the Middle of a Severe Recession, California Prepares To Raise Its Gas Tax to 50 Cents a Gallon
The Golden State has the highest gas tax in the nation, and one of its worst-performing highway systems.
By Christian Britschgi, Reason, June 15, 2020
Climate Study: Black Expectant US Mothers Especially at Risk from Heat Exposure
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 19, 2020
Association of Air Pollution and Heat Exposure With Preterm Birth, Low Birth Weight, and Stillbirth in the US: A Systematic Review
By Bruce Bekkar, et al, JAMA, June 18, 2020
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2767260
COVID-19 and Environmentalist Injustice
By Steve Milloy, Real Clear Energy, June 16, 2020
Oh Mann!
Tree Rings & Michael Mann’s Hockey Stick
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 14, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/06/14/tree-rings-michael-manns-hockey-stick/
Environmental Industry
Conservative climate group runs pro-environment ads on Fox News
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 15, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Complete with chimneys belching black steam darkening the skies!]
Other News that May Be of Interest
Asphalt Paves the Way
By American Oil & Gas Historical Society, Via Master Resource, June 18, 2020
GE: Contra-Capitalism’s Toll (lightbulb unit sold)
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, June 15, 2020
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Collapsology: The Rise Of A New Doomsday Cult & The Return Of The Dark Ages
By Staff, The Sunday Telegraph, Via GWPF, June 14, 2020
“Demand to learn how to become a collapsologist is also rising, according to Rémi Richart, an IT expert who has been living a self-sufficient, low-carbon life with his wife and three children in the rural Cantal for 10 years. They have a pedal-driven washing machine and solar oven.”
We need a global treaty
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 17, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Time for action! Stop magnetic field change!]
Oceanfront Property In Arizona
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 12, 2020
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/06/oceanfront-property-in-arizona-2/
To Halt Climate Change, We Need an Ecological Leninism
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 17, 2020
Link to article: “To Halt Climate Change, We Need an Ecological Leninism
By Andreas Malm, Jacobin, June 15, 2020
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/06/andreas-malm-coronavirus-covid-climate-change
[SEPP Comment: Complete with firing squads, deliberate famine, and concentration camps?]
Vegans Fall Out Over Gretaburger
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 18, 2020
“The plant-based burger’s description on Uber Eats says it’s ‘full of hot air, light on facts and high in carbon monoxide’.”
ARTICLES
What Covid Models Get Wrong
Focus on the burden on hospitals, not on the oft-mistaken forecasts.
Editorial, WSJ, June 17, 2020
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-covid-models-get-wrong-11592435169?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
TWTW Summary: Much of what is said in this editorial, particularly about models, applies to the climate models as well.
Here we go again. The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has issued a new forecast that Covid-19 fatalities would spike over the summer in states that have moved faster to reopen. Cue the media drumbeat for another lockdown. Maybe someone should first explain why the models were wrong about so much the last time.
Take New York, where Gov. Andrew Cuomo locked down the state in mid-March based on dire warnings. His public health experts projected the state would need as many as 140,000 hospital beds and 40,000 intensive care units—two to three times more regular hospital beds and 10 times more ICU beds than were available. The UW model forecast that 49,000 regular beds and 8,000 ICU beds would be needed at the peak.
New York was hit hard, but Covid-19 hospital bed utilization in New York peaked at 18,825 and 5,225 for ICUs in mid-April. Even in New York City, hospital utilization never exceeded 85% of capacity and 89% for ICUs. Government-run hospitals in low-income neighborhoods with the most cases were unprepared, but they were ill-managed before the pandemic.
New York was the country’s frontline in the coronavirus attack, and caution was needed in the early days because so little was known about the virus. The original UW model, which was based on the experiences in Italy and Wuhan, assumed that strict lockdowns would curb infections, reduce hospitalizations and lower deaths faster than they actually did in the Northeast.
Asked last month about when fatalities and hospitalizations would meet state thresholds for reopening, Mr. Cuomo responded: ‘All the early national experts, ‘Here’s my projection model.’ . . . They were all wrong. They were all wrong. . . . There are a lot of variables. I understand that. We didn’t know what the social distancing would actually amount to. I get it, but we were all wrong.’
Hospital utilization by Covid-19 patients in New York City has fallen 94% since the peak, which has allowed some non-essential treatments to resume. New York City has 29% of its hospital beds and 34% of its intensive care units now available. New cases have fallen by about 40% and new hospitalizations by a third in the last two weeks, despite the recent protests.
Warnings about reopening states are also overblown so far. While Arizona has had an uptick in hospitalizations, about 59% of its emergency beds and 17% of ICU beds are unused. A month ago, 43% of hospitalized patients with Covid were in the ICU. Now only a third are, suggesting that better and earlier treatment is easing disease severity.
In Texas, hospitalizations have also been climbing, but weekly fatalities are down 40% from a month ago. Covid-19 patients occupy fewer than 5% of all hospital beds, and more than a quarter are available. Even in Houston—which has experienced the biggest increase in hospitalizations—Covid-19 patients occupy only 6% of hospital beds. More than 20% are unused.”
According to an accompanying graph, Arizona had the greatest share of ICU beds occupied by Covid-19 patients, slightly more than 30% as of June 16.
“Covid-19 patients take up a small share of ICU beds in most states that have reopened including California (16%), Texas (11%), Georgia (10%), Utah (9%), Wisconsin (8%) and Florida (7%). Nearly all states have ample hospital and ICU capacity.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom started easing his strict lockdown six weeks ago, and restaurants, hair salons, retail stores and gyms are now allowed open in most counties outside of the Bay Area. While new cases have been rising due to more testing and in some cases from community spread, hospitalizations and fatalities have been flat since early May. In Los Angeles, ICU utilization has fallen by about 15% in the last month.
‘We have to recognize you can’t be in a permanent state where people are locked away—for months and months and months and months on end—to see lives and livelihoods completely destroyed, without considering the health impact of those decisions as well,’ Mr. Newsom said Monday.
Yet national Democrats and the press are still promoting worst-case predictions, almost as if they’re hoping for worse so they can prove Donald Trump wrong. The University of Washington now projects that reopening will cause deaths to triple in California and increase six-fold in Florida and Arizona through September.
***
But as Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis explains in a new paper, most models have overshot in part by making faulty assumptions about virus reproduction rates and homogenous susceptibility. A Massachusetts General Hospital model predicted more than 23,000 deaths within a month of Georgia reopening but the state had only 896.
‘In the presence of strong groupthink and bandwagon effects, modelers may consciously fit their predictions to what is the dominant thinking and expectations—or they may be forced to do so,’ Mr. Ioannidis writes. ‘Forecasts may be more likely to be published or disseminated, if they are more extreme.’
A surge of new infections is inevitable as states reopen, and health officials will have to watch for and contain hot spots. But the Covid models aren’t destiny, and the cost of new lockdowns is too great to sustain. We have to live with the virus risks while fortifying the health system and protecting the most vulnerable.
“Although it is often noted that greenhouse warming has long been found in the climate literature, it turns out that this was not generally considered a major cause of climate change until the 1980s”
This is not true. The first such AGW paper, “based entirely on greenhouse warming”, was published in 1938.
Pls see
https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/06/29/peer-review-comments-on-callendar-1938/
I am looking forward to a scaled down version of the upcoming Micro Modular Reactor (MMR), the Household Nuclear Reactor (HNR). The Danish pop group Voxpop sang about the HNR back in the mid 1970’s.
Richard Lindzen quotes the alleged -20W/m2 or CRE a lot, but that he should not do. This figure is based on some highly unreliable models which claim to be “satellite data”. In reality however, it are just models which also get fed with some satellite data and the outcome totally depends on the modelling (aka assumptions).
Independent investigation of subject reveals that not just those model results are invalid, but that the CRE is indeed positive! A positive CRE of course marginalizes any role attributable to GHGs.
Just one preliminary chapter of groundbreaking climate science..
https://de.scribd.com/document/466536029/The-Strange-NASA-Map1
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-53140069
Siberia 1920 NY Times archive https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/06/21/world/europe/ap-eu-russia-siberia-heat.html?searchResultPosition=2
Wrong link sorry
“See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy”
Why not post them in your top-of-the-TWTW as well? That way I, and others, could copy-and-paste them in one go. Those copied items then become ammo I can use in disputes online. I need the links of course to do so. But if it’s a pain to get the links, I tend to skip copying the items entirely.