Who is at risk from the Chinese Virus? Some hard data at last #coronavirus

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

As the old saying goes, In God we trust: all others bring data. At last, we have some decent – if not yet peer-reviewed – data on who is most susceptible to the Chinese virus. A large survey of patients hospitalized with the infection has just been published.

Features of 16,749 hospitalized UK patients with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterization Protocol is full of useful facts of which governments can take advantage.

Perhaps the most startling results were that a third of all hospitalized patients died, 17% are still in hospital and only half have been discharged. Almost half of all intensive-care or high-dependency patients and more than half of all ventilated patients died. Almost half of those admitted to hospital had no comorbidities: age seems to be the most important risk factor.

Those aged 50-69 were 4 times likelier to die than those under 50: those in their 70s were 10 times likelier to die; those over 80 were 14 times likelier to die; females were 20% less likely to die than males.

Since the paper is not yet peer-reviewed, an outside expert opinion was sought from Dr Derek Hill, Professor of Medical Imaging at University College, London, who said:

“This is an extremely impressive preprint describing the characteristics of nearly 17000 patients with confirmed COVID-19 in UK hospitals. Important to note it only covers those admitted to hospital, and that it is a snapshot of outcomes: many patients included are still in hospital so their outcomes are not yet known. Therefore all the mortality and survival numbers are subject to change.

“This is an especially large study, so it provides helpful insights into the symptoms of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital.  As has been reported many times, this is not like flu in who gets seriously ill or in mortality: young children seem to have low risk and pregnant women do not have a increased risk of serious illness, and it is deadlier than flu. 

There are several distinctive clusters of symptoms, with a significant number of patients not having the characteristic cough and  fever symptoms.  If extrapolated to the community, this might suggest some deaths due to COVID-19 might be missed in untested people.  This work also highlights the link between obesity and poor outcome from COVID-19.”

Policymakers devising strategies for phasing out lockdowns will find the following table summarizing the results useful. For instance, since those under 50 are unlikely to die of the infection and the risk of death even for those in their 60s and 70s is quite small, continuing to lock down the entire economy is no longer necessary.

Instead, there will need to be better procedures for protecting old and sick people in hospitals and in care homes from infection. Outside these settings, old people are canny enough to take their own precautions.

Screenshot 2020-05-03 16.52.18

Our daily graphs of growth rates or declines in estimated active cases and growth rates in cumulative deaths shows all countries tracked bar Sweden and Ireland with active-case rates declining, and all but Canada with daily cumulative deaths growing at 3% or less.

clip_image002[4]

Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in estimated active cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 1 to May 2, 2020.

clip_image004[4]

Fig. 2. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 8 to May 2, 2020.

Ø High-definition Figures 1 and 2 are here.

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Vuk
May 3, 2020 2:12 pm

Obese and overweight adults of any age.

William Astley
Reply to  Vuk
May 3, 2020 2:35 pm

Yes, because almost all obese and overweight people are severely, Vitamin D deficient.

From the paper linked to below.

“Strikingly, 100% of ICU patients less than 75 years old had Vitamin D insufficiency.”

Vitamin D deficiency is the common factor. Same explanation as to why 3 times as many dark skin people died from covid than white skin people.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1

The VDI (Vitamin D Insufficiency) prevalence in ICU patients was 84.6%, vs. 57.1% in floor patients.

Strikingly, 100% of ICU patients less than 75 years old had VDI. Coagulopathy was present in 62.5% of ICU COVID-19 patients, and 92.3% were lymphocytopenic.

Conclusions: VDI is highly prevalent in severe COVID-19 patients. VDI and severe COVID-19 share numerous associations including hypertension, obesity, male sex, advanced age, concentration in northern climates, coagulopathy, and immune dysfunction.

Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19

The overall prevalence rate of vitamin D deficiency was 41.6%, with the highest rate seen in blacks (82.1%), followed by Hispanics (69.2%). Vitamin D deficiency was significantly more common among those who had no college education, were obese, with a poor health status, hypertension, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, …. (all P < .001). Multivariate analyses showed that being from a non-white race, not college educated, obese, having low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, poor health, a revalence and correlates of vitamin D deficiency in US adults

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21310306

Comment: The supplement required is 4000 IU/day. A glass of milk has 110 UI, fortified.

This chart gives an overview of the issue.

Chart summarizing the results of Vitamin D studies. Roughly 60% reduction cancer, type 1 diabetes, multiple sclerosis, and so on. There is also a strong correlation with dementia in elderly people and Vitamin D deficiency.

https://www.grassrootshealth.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/disease-incidence-prev-chart-051317.pdf

Vuk
Reply to  William Astley
May 3, 2020 2:43 pm

In the UK vitamin D3 supplement (25 micrograms or 1000IU) is currently difficult to get hold of.

John Dawson
Reply to  Vuk
May 3, 2020 3:06 pm

Interesting Vuk – just checked my usual vendors and the the first time ever it is indeed out of stock. Luckily for me I replenished my supply six weeks ago! I have been taking 1000IU every day for the past year or so and what’s left will last me 6 months.

William Astley
Reply to  John Dawson
May 3, 2020 3:59 pm

John. A 1000 UI/day of Vitamin D supplements is not enough. There are US studies that have proven that.

The amount of Vitamin D supplement required is 4000 UI/day. That amount gets most people into the range to protect for cancer and to stop most common diseases. (See the above chart).

US Studies have been done with Vitamin D supplements from 1000 UI/day to 10,000 UI/day. There were no observed problems due to Vitamin D supplements in that range.

4000 UI/day is the recommended maximum by one US medical board.

I take 6000 UI/day, however, I am doing research on the activation of a system which energizes the core of the body and another system which repairs the brain.

The initiation of the body core system starts at 4000 UI/day which explains why people lose 40 to 60 lbs when they correct their Vitamin D deficiency.

The body core system is controlled by the lower brain. Vitamin D is a proto hormone that turns on and off genes and is known to be used in 200 body processes.

When the body core system is turned on the host’s core is activated, the spine strengths and tries to return to its natural position, as the core system is turned on to a higher level.

This core system when it is activated, also generates heat, warming the core of the body.

When you look at people who are all of similar age it is very easy to see who is and who is not vitamin D deficient, based on the activation of this core system. The people who are not vitamin D deficient, look 10 to 15 youngers, they feel better, and they have better posture.

There is a significant correlation with depression and vitamin D deficiency.

John Tillman
Reply to  John Dawson
May 3, 2020 4:33 pm

Those doses would be expensive.

But if worth the cost, then I can just buy cheaper booze.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  John Dawson
May 3, 2020 7:37 pm

I am grateful to Mr Astley and many others for having provided information about Vitamin D deficiency in Chinese-virus patients. This series has already provided evidence from a meta-analysis of clinical trials on 10,500 patients that the one prophylactic already proven to work against respiratory infections is sufficient Vitamin D3. Thanks to this additional information, I shall devote a future posting to this topic.

terry
Reply to  John Dawson
May 3, 2020 8:00 pm

To the author of this article.

PLEASE consider doing a full article on this protocol from EVMS and all its ramifications

https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_public/departments/internal_medicine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf

Short url evms.edu/covidcare

Read and absorb page 9

William Astley
Reply to  John Dawson
May 3, 2020 8:27 pm

Big Al

Strange comment for a troll.

icisil
Reply to  John Dawson
May 4, 2020 1:20 am

“Those doses would be expensive. But if worth the cost, then I can just buy cheaper booze.”

It’s not that bad. I pay less than $10 for a 3 month supply @ 4000 IU per day (1000 IU per tablet). What I don’t like about most vitamin D products is that they are softgels, which means unnecessary consumption of soybean oil the vitamin is dissolved in. So I get a tablet form.

Van Doren
Reply to  John Dawson
May 4, 2020 7:07 am

I’ve been taking 5000IU/day for years. VD Level of at least 30ng/ml is needed for prevention, and for that one need to take 4-5 thousand units. This is known empirically and can also be calculated from the known pharmacokinetic properties of VD. My vitamin D level is btw 60ng/ml.

Van Doren
Reply to  John Dawson
May 4, 2020 7:23 am

Expensive? Vitamin D? I’ve got my 5000IU daily dosage for 0.06€ – https://www.amazon.de/gp/product/B077M63BN3/ It was however 21.90€ back then.

Robert W. Turner
Reply to  John Dawson
May 4, 2020 7:58 am

I prefer the old fashioned method of getting my vitamins from food. Sea food, eggs, and mushrooms for vitamin D.

And anyone that has been to Japan can tell you that they eat a lot of all three of those foods (the whole country smells like shitoki), and I suspect the same is true for Korea and other nations that are now being said to have been spared the virus’ wraith due to masks.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  John Dawson
May 4, 2020 2:06 pm

It is likely that supplements are better than no supplements, but no amount of them is as good as exposing your skin to direct sunlight for a little while every day.
If you can lie out for an hour, you can feel the change in your body.
If you are deficient, you will feel a euphoria stronger than an intense runners high as your body makes what it needs for free.
Note that there are numerous minerals and vitamins and other nutrients you need, and no amount of one thing will make up for a deficiency of any one of the others.
IOW…do not focus on one aspect of nutrition.
You have to understand the full catalog of nutritional requirements and then make sure you have ZERO deficiencies.
Also…you will never be able to absorb supplements if you do not know a few things.
The most important is to take them with food.
If you do not, you need to know exactly how each nutrient is absorbed and make sure you are not taking it in such a way that it is passing right through you.

We did not evolved for billions of years taking a vitamin D3 pill…we evolved outside in the sun making a crapload of it via UV shining onto our skin.
Unless you think such biochemistry is very simple, you will understand there is more to vitamin D than can be replaced by taking oral D3

beng135
Reply to  John Dawson
May 5, 2020 9:06 am

The amount of Vitamin D supplement required is 4000 UI/day.

Exposure to sun on a significant area of bare skin for 15+ minutes should supply that.

PaulH
Reply to  Vuk
May 3, 2020 3:54 pm

I bought a bottle of 1000IU D3 when this nonsense started, and I’ve been taking 1 per day. But some “experts” say you need 5000IU – 10000IU per day? That seems like a lot, wouldn’t excess D3 simply pass through your system? Should I take 2 or 3 per day? Or should I sit in the sun for a couple of hours with a cool drink?

brians356
Reply to  PaulH
May 3, 2020 4:38 pm

My doctor tells me, based on annual blood panel. I take 4000 IU per day, bringing my “Vit D, 25 hydroxy, total, serum” to 43.0, with > 30 “optimal”.

Bill_W_1984
Reply to  PaulH
May 3, 2020 5:37 pm

Vitamin D is a fat soluble vitamin so it does not pass in the urine and it is possible to overdose on if taking large doses over a long time period (shark and cod liver oils have huge amounts of Vit. A and D so if one were to take a lot of these it is possibly to get too much, especially of Vit. A). The medical community was obsessed with this for years and decades ago were reluctant to prescribe extra Vitamin D. Over the last 20 years, they have realized that is is not that easy to overdose on Vitamin D and that it is needed for many more processes than they knew. And they starting finding that many older people and heavy people have lower levels of Vit. D. If you have extra fat, the Vitamin D gets diluted into your fat tissues. They also in the US, have increased the RDA several times over the last decade or so. The generic Centrum I take daily used to have 400 IU but then they increased to 800 IU and now they contain 1000 IU. On top of that (since I was tested and had low Vit. D) I take an extra 2000 to 4000 per day and I eat salmon or tuna at least once a week. Just the 1,000 IU/day for 1 year only raised my serum level from a low 260 to a low normal 340 which is why I added the 2000 to 4000 extra per day.

William Astley
Reply to  PaulH
May 3, 2020 5:46 pm

I personally would not take more than 6000 IU/day of Vitamin D and there is no health reason to go beyond 10,000 IU/day.

Also, if you are getting full body sun exposure in the summer or at low enough latitudes for roughly hour per day, there is no reason to take Vitamin D supplements.

For most people, however, it is not possible to get sufficient daily sunlight. 4000 UI/day is good as recommendation for the general population as there is a US board that has stated that is there recommended maximum and it is still high enough to make a difference, as long as BMI is average.

I added the following supplement and found a significant increase in core activity and general energy.

There is also correlation Zinc deficiency and sever covid cases also.

I believe the Vitamin D activates a microbiological system that when there is free Zinc in the body stream enable a tiny amount of Zinc into our cells.

In vitro tests have shown the Z+2 ion makes the ACE-2 molecule in our cells slightly positive which stops the covid virus from replicating.

I take the standard supplement of (one pill) Calcium 333mg, Magnesium 167 mg, and Zinc 17 mg.

Calcium helps activate the Vitamin D and Magnesium helps with the absorption of calcium. Vegetarians are Zinc deficient.

Vegetarians had more sever Covid cases than non-vegetarians which is odd as in most health cases they do better due to their diet’s, high fiber which feeds syngeneic microbiological entities that live in our lower intestine.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2973827/

Zn 2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture

Zinc deficiency linked to immune system response, particularly in older adults

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/150323142839.htm

Zinc helps against infection by tapping brakes in immune response
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/02/130207131344.htm

Big Al
Reply to  PaulH
May 3, 2020 7:23 pm

I have been on a D3 journey for over seven years. First a warning concerning High Dose D3. Vitamin K complex MUST be taken also. To really get your level elevated need to take at least 8k with vit K. Best taken with high fat meal. EVERY day. I went from 37 blood level to 80 today. In yearly days a lot of hand wringing about overdosing. Toxic. Turns out hard to OD on Vit D3. 5000 with vit K is the very lowest IU for OK health I started out slow. Took me years to really increase my D3 level. I have RA and get blood tested every 3 months. Two months ago I was at 80. Before tested 67. One has to take ALOT to really reap the benefits of the wonder vit D3, With vit K Complex. And YES, BIG improvement in my health. Along with my home made silver water and nasty oil oregano spray. Carrot juice is last resort. I still cycle colds. Instead of suffering for six weeks now six days of very, very mild symptoms. I am 68 and laugh at chinees virus.

Robert W. Turner
Reply to  PaulH
May 4, 2020 8:18 am

50:50 carrot/orange juice is actually quite tasty. I drink this and a tbs of chia seeds every morning, better than any multivitamin.

mario lento
Reply to  PaulH
May 6, 2020 1:44 pm

I read some posts about Carrot juice. There is no measurable amount of vit D or vit K in carrots from what I understand, though there are certainly health benefits – lots of good carotenoids. Be careful with juiced carrots if you do not want a significant amount of sugar.

otropogo
Reply to  Vuk
May 4, 2020 9:11 pm

It appears there are no D3 supplements sold in Canada with more than 1,000 iu per dose. I found only one vendor of D3 powder, and their website says it’s out of stock. Health Canada prohibits the importation of D3 supplements containing more than 1,000 iu per dose.

mario lento
Reply to  Vuk
May 6, 2020 1:34 pm

Do your best to get sun from through the low level of English insolation… Get enough of your body in the sun. To calibrate, if you turn a little pink, you got too much. I cannot find out how many equivalent IUs are made, but it was something like 20,000 IUs if I recall correctly

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20072137

Editor
Reply to  William Astley
May 3, 2020 2:49 pm

Strange the study doesn’t mention that the BAME community are hugely over represented in the number of deaths. William references this just above but it’s a huge factor

Tonyb

Scissor
Reply to  Tonyb
May 3, 2020 3:02 pm

Wouldn’t that be racist?

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Scissor
May 4, 2020 3:54 am

no, factual, but some will see it as such;-( snowflakes abound

Observer
Reply to  Tonyb
May 3, 2020 5:20 pm

What’s also peculiar is having such poor resolution in the 50-69 range. I mean, if that’s where risk starts picking up, you’d think it would be good to break it down in to (say) 4 x 5 year groups, not one giant stonking 20 year cohort. Even the “seventies” get a resolution of ten years.

If I were conspiratorially-minded I’d be wondering if they’re going to use this as an excuse to keep 50+ y/o people in isolation.

John
Reply to  Observer
May 3, 2020 11:28 pm

A few points , regarding BAME, vitamin D and the 50-69 age resolution.
Certain ethnicities have a higher risk of co-morbidities at a younger age than Caucasians, e.g diabetic risk in southern Asian population aged 25+ is the same as the Caucasian risk aged 40+. Type 2 diabetes is more prevalent in these populations, therefore their risk from CoViD19 is higher for longer.
These same groups also have a tendency to be vitamin D deficient for longer in the year as their skin tone reduces the production of vitamin D from sunlight at high latitudes.
One of the essential precursors for vitamin D production from sunlight is cholesterol, which has been wrongly demonised by Ancel Keys as causing coronary heart disease.
I am a nurse practitioner working in an urgent care centre In the U.K. that is seeing CoViD19 patients only, but because I am male, over 50 I cannot continue to work as I am high risk. A female has a similar risk over the age of 60.

Terry
Reply to  John
May 3, 2020 11:43 pm

John what back end protocol was your hospital using when a patients immune system put them in septic shock covid style?

See evms.edu/covidcare it is why I ask

John
Reply to  Observer
May 4, 2020 1:22 am

Terry, Sorry I can’t answer your question as I have no knowledge what happens in secondary (acute) care. Urgent care centres are primary care and if a patient presents as poorly then they are transferred to the emergency department. The criteria for transfer are Heart Rate > 130; Respiration rate > 24; Oxygen Saturations < 92% on air (non-COPD patients) 38.5. This is indicative of of a Cytokine storm or in a bacterial infection severe sepsis.
If a patient has 100 < heart rate <130, 20<respiration rate<=24, 92%<=Saturations <95% then we provide prophylactic antibiotics.
I'm not sure whether patients in ITU are intubated on ventilators in an induced coma or attached to CPAP/BiPAP machines (which is what I think Boris Johnson was on).

Terry
Reply to  John
May 4, 2020 3:46 am

John
When did you start anti infamation and anti coagulation treatments
Immediately???

JimW
Reply to  Tonyb
May 4, 2020 4:50 am

Tonyb, its also ‘strange’ that anyone with the ONS stats could have, and some did, get the results posted today by ‘his lordship’ some time ago.
Its been very very clear who is at risk and why.
In the UK the lockdown has been an unmitigated disaster. Locking up the healthy who need to get out and [pass on infection, and creating hot spots of infection in generah hospital wards and care homes.
Now today apparently new is that BoJo and the rest have sold out to Gates and won’t go back to sanity until a vaccine is available.
The real problem is that the BoE produced a money tree in 2008, and now its done it again. So everyone is jumping on the bandwagon to get something for nothing and 50% ( at least) of the population is happy to sit on the arses collecting funny money as long as its given out, and to hell with the consequences , because they are all so precious.
The UK is doomed. And its not helped by advisors such as ‘his lordship’ .

Waza
Reply to  Tonyb
May 4, 2020 5:20 am

Dr Roger seheult of mecram who treats covid patients only takes a precautionary 2500 iu of vitamin d
See medcram update 59 for his vitamin schedule

johnbuk
Reply to  Waza
May 4, 2020 12:08 pm

He also takes Quercetin a Zinc ionophore.

Waza
Reply to  Tonyb
May 4, 2020 5:26 am

I am shocked there isn’t a team entering all this data daily.
Especially in New York. Matching the breakdown of patient co morbidities in each country is essential. Is the pattern of patient co morbidities the same in New York as uk ?

Adam
Reply to  William Astley
May 3, 2020 3:47 pm

I’m guessing nursing home residents don’t spend much time in the sun.

Sommer
Reply to  Adam
May 3, 2020 4:05 pm

Nursing home residents don’t get nearly enough sunlight!

Scissor
Reply to  Adam
May 3, 2020 4:55 pm

It makes me angry thinking about what this lockdown is doing to our elders.

Mister Bitcoin
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2020 5:45 pm

I’m guessing a lot of people who live in London are vitamin D deficient (lack of sun)

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2020 7:43 pm

Obesity does not appear to be a major comorbidity. In this respect, the result confirms a similar conclusion from an earlier study of 2249 hospitalized patients by the Office for National Statistics.

JohnM
Reply to  Scissor
May 4, 2020 12:28 am

Given that immunosenescence is also doing things to our elders…..and is also certainly the sole cause of higher morbidity among the old…

Ian W
Reply to  Adam
May 4, 2020 7:49 am

Nor do nursing home residents get sufficient minerals and micronutrients in their diet. Adding D3, zinc and selenium, perhaps with quercetin (ginko biloba extract) and they would probably be effectively immune to corona virus infections. But nobody seems to care.

Stevek
Reply to  William Astley
May 3, 2020 4:12 pm

Of course the corrupt FDA and NIH will never stress the importance of vitamin D as it will interfere with their Big Pharma friends making maximum profit.

JohnM
Reply to  Stevek
May 4, 2020 2:31 am
A C Osborn
Reply to  JohnM
May 4, 2020 4:00 am

Where does that article mention taking Vit D for COVID-19, nowhere, because it is 8 Years old.
So why no reminder at this critical stage?

Scissor
Reply to  William Astley
May 3, 2020 5:03 pm

I ride my bicycle outside for about an hour regularly in the sunshine. Assuming I’m getting good exposure, should I skip my 5000 IU VD supplement that day?

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2020 5:12 pm

Not if you are using sunscreen on exposed skin…high altitude UV risk. I do 6000 regardless of sun.

Scissor
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
May 3, 2020 5:40 pm

Thanks. I generally use sunscreen on my knees, nose, cheeks, ears and neck and wear a hat (plus long or short sleeves, shorts, socks and shoes).

brians356
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2020 5:39 pm

Don’t you get a comprehensive physical exam yearly, with a complete blood panel? My panel (analysis through Cleveland HeartLab) reports Vitamin D3 serum level. Based on that my doctor recommends 4000 IU daily.

Mister Bitcoin
Reply to  William Astley
May 3, 2020 5:42 pm

vitamin D deficiency

very informative

thank you for sharing

I need to take my vitamin D capsule now

Peter
Reply to  William Astley
May 3, 2020 6:16 pm

Vitamine D is known to be needed for a good immune system. We also know that due to less outdoor activities (specially now with all the lock downs all over the world) we are not getting much exposure to the sun so our skin can produce vitamine D. With all this, I find it very strange that no government, health agency or disease control organization is recommending to strengthen the immune system by taking some extra vitamine D (and C).

I am also taking my extra D’s.

Steven Mosher
Reply to  William Astley
May 3, 2020 8:21 pm

I got my vitamin D shot the minute I left China in Jan.

Cheap, easy, precautionary principle.

I also got a pneumonia vaxx. Why? did not want to come down with regular old pneumonia
and have to visit a hospital and end up catching covid.

pls
Reply to  Steven Mosher
May 4, 2020 10:30 pm

Be careful about vitamin D injection. They tend to be D2 rather than the human form D3. D2 is much more toxic that D3 and less effective. It should not be considered suitable for mammal use.

Do you know which form you received?

John
Reply to  William Astley
May 3, 2020 10:58 pm

In the U.K. we have had glorious sunshine for most of the Lockdown.. Sunbathers wanting to top up their Vit D have been fined. The Stay Home Stay Safe mantra has been criminally insane.

JohnM
Reply to  John
May 3, 2020 11:46 pm

Nobody has entered my garden to tell me not to sunbathe. Nobody has entered anyones garden to tell them the same. Only those who insist on sunbathing in parks or open spaces have been told to depart.

I have noticed though, that this site seems to be infected with the same sort of people who make-up the twitter-bot comment section…..always against anything, and everything, no matter what.

Newt2u
Reply to  JohnM
May 4, 2020 12:45 am

John, you are lucky to have a garden. Not everyone is so lucky. If you live in a flat or bedsit, the park is the only option for you to get some sunshine… but it is currently not an option. More shame on the government/police for this situation!

Greg
Reply to  JohnM
May 4, 2020 1:00 am

You seem to assume that everyone has a garden just like you. A rather self – centred view of life.

John Endicott
Reply to  JohnM
May 4, 2020 8:32 am

Nobody has entered my garden to tell me not to sunbathe

Speaking of a “twitter-bot” style posting, the self-centered view expressed in yours certainly qualifies. Not everyone has their own personal garden space, contrary to what you post seems to imply. What’s the poor apartment dweller to do? go to the local park… only to get yelled at by drone, snitched on by busybodies and/or threatened with fines and jail!

A C Osborn
Reply to  John
May 4, 2020 4:05 am

But the previous 2 monthsin the UK virtually no sunshine with storm after storm.
So everybody was low on Vit D, especially those with darker skin tones.
So lock them up in doors and make it even worse.
You know what they say about governments, they treat the people like Mushrooms, keep them in the dark and feed them bull sh!t.

Dodgy Geezer
Reply to  William Astley
May 4, 2020 8:33 am

“…From the paper linked to below. “Strikingly, 100% of ICU patients less than 75 years old had Vitamin D insufficiency.”……..”

Interesting. But note that low levels of Vitamin D are VERY common in Western countries – pretty much everyone has a Vitamin D insufficiency. So we need a bit more than correlation. After all, I suspect that pretty much 100% of ICU patients less than 75 years old had two legs as well…

Ian W
Reply to  Dodgy Geezer
May 4, 2020 10:50 am

So did pretty much 100% of patients that did not go to ICU have 2 legs. Vitamin D insufficiency is a discriminator. As those not in ICU have higher vitamin D levels than those in ICU.
The entire reason for ‘elderly’ having worse outcomes could be due to insufficiency of many vitamins and minerals as ‘nursing homes’ do not tend to provide high enough levels of these nutrients in meals.

Cliff Hilton
Reply to  William Astley
May 4, 2020 11:32 am

William

Does VDI develop in the hospital or were the patients VDI before infection? VDI is not uncommon while “in” the hospital.

I developed VDI while getting my heart bypass. This happened in four (4) days. It went away as I was able to get back to my routine in three weeks.

pls
Reply to  William Astley
May 4, 2020 10:19 pm

WRT coronavirus, none of this tells you which direction causality runs.

An activated immune system consumes vitamin D. Were these people deficient before they got infected, or are they now deficient because the infection has used up their vitamin D?

yarpos
Reply to  Vuk
May 3, 2020 2:45 pm

Did you look at the data?

J Mac
Reply to  yarpos
May 4, 2020 9:52 am

Yes! It shows the folks with no comorbidities were 47% of the people included in the study. 53% had at least one comorbidity. Not much difference there! I don’t understand Vuk’s misdirected opening comment….

jtom
Reply to  Vuk
May 3, 2020 3:11 pm

Yes, everyone says that, but this study shows obesity was a comorbidity in only 8%. What is the obesity rate in the general population?

Perhaps those who were obese were the ones who died. Those figures aren’t shown.

Charlie
Reply to  jtom
May 3, 2020 4:55 pm

I find it interesting – troubling – that the comorbitities of those who died is not listed. That is really the most important information. Those are the people who need to know this.

Steven Mosher
Reply to  Charlie
May 3, 2020 5:26 pm

yes,

These medical studies never supply the complete data.
What you really want to see is the cross tab of age and morbidity.
Along with a few other things .

They have the data. Its already been anonymized. But they all just release results.

Frustrating as hell

Earthling2
Reply to  Steven Mosher
May 3, 2020 6:17 pm

Race and even genetics within individual ethnic groups also have a big sway one way or the other, whether you stay asymptomatic or whether you go on to develop the full blown disease. Was also reading about some people and the meds they were on interacting, especially blood thinners assisted in not clotting for heart attacks, strokes and lower lung pneumonia clotting, and maybe not as bad as may have been had they not been on a blood thinner. So many variables and combinations of issues to consider, which we hardly know anything about. Yet. Hopefully someone is taking notes.

Daniel J Hawkins
Reply to  jtom
May 4, 2020 10:23 am

In the US, obesity runs about 40% for adults 20 and over.

Hexe Froschbeing
Reply to  jtom
May 5, 2020 3:13 am

Obesity is one thing, but it’s only a symptom of the problem of constantly eating (regardless of the amount consumed), with lots of snacking between mealtimes — causing lots of insulin spikes.

I think that spending more time in the fasted state could help anyone, including obese people.

Consider:

https://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2019/05/29/what-happens-when-a-person-with-prediabetes-get-a-viral-infection-new-study-provides-in-depth-look/

and

https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/04/15/Glucose-metabolism-may-play-key-role-in-illness-with-flu-COVID-19/1721586968769/?sl=4

then look into what happens to the body when fasting — insulin levels and blood pressure go down, you get a spurt of Human Growth Hormone, and autophagy occurs(all at different times). Fasting it also used to regenerate the immune systems of people who undergo cancer treatment and some people’s fatty livers are fixed over time and their metabolic health improves. It seems to be very beneficial in general, whether you are overweight or not, and some say that fasting leads to a longer life. It certainly saves a lot of time not cooking and eating all the time, and, also, it cuts down on thinking about what and when to eat all time, along with obsession if one is overeating.

I’m not a doctor, just someone who has used fasting with very good results overall, so this is just a guess!

Hexe Froschbein
Reply to  Hexe Froschbeing
May 5, 2020 3:21 am

Addendum: I forgot to say that blood sugar goes down, it takes about 12 hours of fasting. So just skipping breakfast every has a good effect here.

Pft
Reply to  Vuk
May 3, 2020 3:43 pm

Most old people are not obese (even if they were when younger), the obese generally kick off early from other diseases.

This disease kills off mainly old people. Over 50% of deaths in MA for example were in nursing homes with average age of 80

DonK31
Reply to  Pft
May 3, 2020 4:35 pm

In any given non-Covid year, what is the per centage of nursing home residents over the age of 80 who die in any given year? How does that compare with this year?

brians356
Reply to  DonK31
May 3, 2020 6:20 pm

Yes, how many “excess deaths” in that 80+ cohort?

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  brians356
May 3, 2020 7:45 pm

Since a very high proportion of the deaths associated with the Chinese virus are in care homes, it is likely that the excess mortality from the virus in this sector is very high.

FundMe
Reply to  brians356
May 4, 2020 9:56 am

The epitaph of WB Yeats

Cast a cold eye
on life, on death
Horseman pass me by.

Which brings me to the point when all is said and done the only way we will know the severity of the Wu-Flu is by the average age of death, or life expectancy. It will lower by probably about 2 weeks. In other words you will be expected as a man to live for 77.94 years post Wu Flu as apposed too 78 years now.

Reply to  Vuk
May 3, 2020 4:24 pm

The tabular chart list obesity comorbidity as 8%.
Diabetes at 6%

Not overwhelming contributions.

As with other claims regarding obesity, I do not see any indication the totals accounted for the general population’s obesity percentage.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  ATheoK
May 3, 2020 7:41 pm

ATheoK may have missed the 19% “diabetes without complications” comorbidity in the table. Taken with the 8% “diabetes with complications”, some 27% of the sample had diabetes as a comorbidity.

Mister Bitcoin
Reply to  Vuk
May 3, 2020 5:40 pm

YES!

High body mass index and the maladies associated with it such as diabetes, hypertension,

rickk
Reply to  Vuk
May 4, 2020 7:15 am

Christopher Monckton of Brenchley wrote “Those aged 50-69 were 4 times likelier to die than those under 50: those in their 70s were 10 times likelier to die; those over 80 were 14 times likelier to die; females were 20% less likely to die than males.”

Do we really know this for sure? Do we really know the incidence and prevalence? One would assume we have have this number by now but alas not!

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  rickk
May 4, 2020 9:14 am

In response to Rickk, the figures I have cited are from the source I have cited. They are consistent with similar work carried out by Britain’s Office for National Statistics. If Rick has any contrary evidence, perhaps he will be kind enough to provide references to it.

old white guy
Reply to  Vuk
May 4, 2020 10:53 am

The same people who are at risk during the seasonal flu. Us old folks and those with underlying medical conditions.

huls
Reply to  Vuk
May 5, 2020 11:47 am

No. Only 8% had that comorbidity. If you use BMI as a means of assesing obesity than is has no meaning. By the way this was most definitely coincidence because 47% had no comorbidity. That’s half or the toss of a coin.

The disease caused by the Chinese virus is not more lethal when a comorbidity is present. That’s what the data tells us.

Bro. Steve
May 3, 2020 2:19 pm

We still need to know the total proportion of in the population who have been exposed to the virus enough to have developed antibodies for it. The data presented here are valuable for supporting the conclusion that, if you get a bad case of coronavirus, serious enough to require hospital care, then you have a serious risk of dying. What the data don’t tell us is whether maintaining a national state of house arrest is helping enough to justify its staggering cost. If we could know that half the population has already been exposed to the virus, then we’d be ready to make some educated extrapolations about what the risk would be of getting everyone back to work.

Reply to  Bro. Steve
May 3, 2020 2:54 pm

Even worse, we don’t know the total proportion of in the population who have been exposed to the virus and have not developed antibodies for it (also known as a natural immunity). This seems to be a bat virus, and people are naturally immune to many animal diseases.

Russ R.
Reply to  Curious George
May 3, 2020 3:33 pm

No antibodies, no immunity. There is no such thing as “natural immunity”. This is a Novel Virus.
We have no immunity in the population. Only those that have been exposed to it, and developed immunity through the production of antibodies.
You are confusing asymptomatic infection versus symptomatic infection.

Reply to  Russ R.
May 3, 2020 4:14 pm

Did you have an asymptomatic hoof-and-mouth disease?

Russ R.
Reply to  Curious George
May 3, 2020 5:02 pm

I am not going to play your game.

When a virus enters the body, it triggers the body’s immune defenses. These defenses begin with white blood cells, such as lymphocytes and monocytes, which learn to attack and destroy the virus or the cells the virus has infected. If the body survives the virus attack, some of the white blood cells remember the invader and are able to respond more quickly and effectively to a subsequent infection by the same virus. This response is called immunity. Immunity can also be produced by getting a vaccine.

For a person to have immunity for a Novel virus they must go through this process. There is no documented “natural immunity” to this virus. If you know of one produce it.

Reply to  Curious George
May 3, 2020 5:33 pm

Darling, should you have googled “natural immunity”, you would have found at
https://medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/natural+immunity:
“natural immunity The ability to resist infection that does not depend on prior experience of the invading organism and the resultant production of antibodies or amendment or selection of LYMPHOCYTES. Natural immunity is a general and non-specific resistance to infection possessed by all healthy individuals. Also known as natural resistance.”

Play your own game, use your toys, but don’t tell me that my toys don’t exist.

You are absolutely right, there is no documented natural immunity to this virus, that’s exactly what I am objecting to – apparently, no one is looking for it.

Reply to  Curious George
May 3, 2020 5:42 pm

As I understand it, natural immunity is a general immunity to all diseases, but not a specific immunity to a particular disease.

And what they are referring to here is that humans do not have a specific immunity to the disease.

Russ R.
Reply to  Curious George
May 3, 2020 5:57 pm

And it doesn’t apply to a Novel virus. This is immunity we have acquired as a species that is inherited. Do you think a crocodile would only gain immunity to all the viruses it is exposed to, through the infection process?
Our systems do not recognize this virus because it has not infected us as a species before. So no natural immunity.
Some children may have temporary immunity, but that does not fit the definition of what immunity is.

Reply to  Curious George
May 3, 2020 6:35 pm

So you don’t believe that you are naturally immune to the hoof-and-mouth disease. Nor do you believe that people with one gene for a sickle-cell anemia are naturally immune to malaria. Live long and prosper.

Russ R.
Reply to  Curious George
May 3, 2020 9:29 pm

I didn’t say any of those things. Why do you feel the need to make up stuff and say that is what I think??
What I said is there is “no natural immunity to a novel virus”, which you stated needed to be counted.
0
I just counted it.

icisil
Reply to  Curious George
May 4, 2020 1:09 am

“Our systems do not recognize this virus because it has not infected us as a species before. So no natural immunity.”

Healthy immunity is able to detect things that don’t belong in the body, whether innate or adaptive immunity. How do you think millions of infected people have survived? Their innate immunity protected them.

MarkW
Reply to  Curious George
May 4, 2020 8:07 am

Most animal viruses can’t infect humans because humans lack the protein that the virus takes advantage of. This is not a “natural immunity”, whatever the heck that is.

Mark Luhman
Reply to  Russ R.
May 3, 2020 10:37 pm

There my be some “immunity” due to exposure of the other four COVID out there that my explain why the young are less affected they have had one of the other COVIDs recently were us old folk have not had it for years, there not enough COVID antibodies left in our bodies to make a difference.

JohnM
Reply to  Mark Luhman
May 3, 2020 11:42 pm

Plus, the aged immune system is inherently defective due to the degeneration of the thymus gland.

Ian W
Reply to  Russ R.
May 4, 2020 8:05 am

Nonsense – you only need to look at the figures what percentage of the UK population has been infected by this virus that is claimed to be extremely contagious? 3% 5% if that. With the underground in London with 5 million passenger journeys a day crammed together – all of London should be infected – it isn’t. That is because all animals have innate immunity that will prevent infections even before the adaptive immunity needs to get into action.
It appears from the discussion that Vitamin D and Zinc are part of this. Intracellular Zinc interferes with the virus attempt to hijack the RNA replication mechanism to multiply. That is not an accident, those protohumans with this mechanism survived better than those without. Similarly, generation of vitamin D in the skin is part of the same innate immune system.
The adaptive system only needs to get involved when the innate system fails – and in COVID-19 when the adaptive immune system gets involved it can cause worse problems by initiating a cytokine storm.

Dylan
Reply to  Russ R.
May 4, 2020 11:15 am

Natural immunity seems to be a way of saying that a virus does not possess the particular “key” it needs to enter cells. That is why some viruses have no effect on some organisms. COVID-19 does have the keys to enter some human cells, so there is no natural immunity.

pls
Reply to  Russ R.
May 4, 2020 10:36 pm

Not saying you’re wrong, Russ R., but I’m wondering how you know that.

I’ve seen researchers stating (speculating?) that the COVID antibody test cross reacts with anitbodies for other coronaviri, and that infection with some other coronaviri confers a degree of immunity to COVID-19. That, in fact, this is the reason there are so many symptomless COVID-19 cases.

Do you have evidence the above is false?

Steven Mosher
Reply to  Bro. Steve
May 3, 2020 5:58 pm

“If we could know that half the population has already been exposed to the virus, then we’d be ready to make some educated extrapolations about what the risk would be of getting everyone back to work.”

New York STATE stands at around 13% infected.

Total cases ~ 19M * .13 = 2.5 Million infected people
Total cases reported = 325K

New York city is higher ~20-25%

The Percent infected wont ever be used to determine the end of lock downs.

However, it can help in modelling hospital burdens

icisil
May 3, 2020 2:19 pm

I bet the highest risk factor is being ventilated.

Dr. Paul Mayo, perhaps New York City’s most illustrious critical care doctor expressed the risks [of ventilators] pithily: putting a person on a ventilator creates a disease known as being on a ventilator.

Ventilators aren’t a panacea for a pandemic like coronavirus
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Ventilators-aren-t-a-panacea-for-a-pandemic-like-coronavirus

M Courtney
Reply to  icisil
May 3, 2020 2:51 pm

Or maybe, they don’t waste precious ventilators on those not at the greatest risk.
Hence the correlation.

icisil
Reply to  M Courtney
May 3, 2020 3:22 pm

I’m sure that depends on the hospital. Many doctors and hospital administrators intubate out of fear of aerosolization.

Yesterday, an ED doc says “if they don’t do well with 6 liters by NC, we tube them. Not risking exposing staff to aerosolization with higher flow O2.” oy…

https://twitter.com/signaturedoc/status/1250072724057264128

I imagine there’s also financial incentive to intubate in the US because Medicare pays 3x more for an intubated patient than a non-intubated covid patient, and intubated patients require much less work and attention.

archie
Reply to  icisil
May 3, 2020 4:11 pm

That’s manslaughter not to continue nasal O2 but intubate because the staff might get the disease.

Reply to  M Courtney
May 3, 2020 4:33 pm

Really, M. Courtney?

Than the totals only reflect areas where hospitals do not have sufficient ventilators. Not an issue here in the USA.

Ventilation requires that the patient is paralyzed so that the ventilator does not cause significant internal damage.
Patients that survive ventilation require weeks to month of therapy to:
A) deal with paralytic drug withdrawal
B) recover muscle strength and stamina
C) and possibly most important, allow the other affected internal organs to heal and recover, if then can.

terry
Reply to  ATheoK
May 3, 2020 7:51 pm

I may have to put how i want to be treated if i go into hosptital in my heath care directive.

I will want to understand their covid septic shock protocol…

Terry
Reply to  terry
May 3, 2020 8:04 pm

An earlier post did not show up, I do not believe

There is nothing in this about the covid sepsis shock treatment these patients received.

With out knowing that, numbers do not mean much

MarkW
Reply to  icisil
May 4, 2020 8:10 am

Overall death rate 39%. Death rate for those on ventilators around 50%.
Considering that only the sickest are put on ventilators, the numbers don’t support your belief.

icisil
Reply to  MarkW
May 4, 2020 9:08 am

Ventilator death rates run as high as 80+%. In many places, patients are put on ventilators simply because doctors and administrators don’t want to risk virus aerosolization that can result from higher flow therapies. Many times doctors simply follow protocol instead of conforming treatment to an illness they don’t understand. That’s all documented by doctors and experts, so I think the evidence very much does support my belief. Basically you have no evidence to support your own belief and are just running your mouth, as usual, to take a swipe at me for some reason. So while you’re trying to blow smoke up my ass, you can just go ahead and kiss my ass.

Rod Evans
May 3, 2020 2:19 pm

Christopher,
Do you have any information on how the antibody test regime is progressing?
Has an effective antibody test been perfected yet, or is the general corona virus antibody test still the only one available.
If that is still the case, then we are no further forward in knowing precisely how many people have contracted Sars Cov 2 aka Covid 19 in the general population.
We need the specific Covid 19 antibody test to enable us to know what the herd condition actually is.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Ron
May 3, 2020 8:00 pm

In response to Mr Evans, I have no recent information on the development of antibody tests, which has generally proven more difficult than expected because it is difficult to achieve specificity by distinguishing between this and other coronaviridae.

This, almost more than anything else, is why it was so criminally irresponsible of the Chinese Communist Party to attempt to suppress the news of this new and fatal infection for six weeks before letting the world know about it, and then to lie in conspiracy with the World Death Organization to the effect that human-to-human transmission was not occurring for a further six weeks.

Ron
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
May 4, 2020 5:03 am

Roche claims to have developed an antibody test with 100% sensitivity and 99.8% specificity.

3,000,000 units will be available in Germany in Mai. 5,000,000 per month afterwards.

Will hopefully give a reliable overview how wide the virus has spread.

John
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
May 4, 2020 7:45 am

I can’t wait to be tested. I am convinced I caught the virus in the UK on 24th December.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  John
May 4, 2020 9:22 am

And how will the test tell you that that was when and where you became infected – if you became infected?

Pat Frank
May 3, 2020 2:24 pm

Any data on levels of plasma Vitamin D3 in these groups?

Vuk
Reply to  Pat Frank
May 3, 2020 2:41 pm

In the UK vitamin D3 supplement (25 micrograms or 1000IU) is currently difficult to get hold of.

The Contemptible
Reply to  Vuk
May 3, 2020 11:43 pm

Empirical evidence suggests not. Holland & Barrett have it in stock: I just ordered 2 x 250 tablets.

View from the Solent
Reply to  Vuk
May 4, 2020 2:10 am

Vuk,
UK multivitamins typically have 20-25 micrograms of D3.

Reply to  View from the Solent
May 4, 2020 12:40 pm

I have purchased today, to replen my stock, Vit D3 4000iu/100ug. 365 tablets. £8.95. Last time I bought, they were £6.95.

icisil
Reply to  Pat Frank
May 3, 2020 2:50 pm

I want to know what pharmaceuticals they were taking. Quite a few prescription drugs deplete zinc.

Scissor
Reply to  Pat Frank
May 3, 2020 3:16 pm

From an Indonesian study: Majority of the COVID-19 cases with insufficient and deficient Vitamin D status died. When controlling for age, sex, and comorbidity, Vitamin D status is strongly associated with COVID-19 mortality.

dmackenzie
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2020 3:34 pm

Link to study please.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2020 8:03 pm

In response to Dr Frank, I do not yet know whether the study monitored Vitamin D3 levels. It certainly should have done. Likewise, there is no data in this study on dark skin (which, in northern climes, tends to exacerbate Vitamin D3 deficiency) as a co-factor, though other studies have shown that black people are twice as susceptible to the Chinese virus as white people.

Pat Frank
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2020 10:28 pm

Thank-you Viscount Monckton.

I’ve read of the increased covid-19 mortality among darker skinned people, too. It seems an advisory on Vitamin D3 ought to go out. Low cost, possibly real benefit.

MrGrimNasty
May 3, 2020 2:28 pm

Still pretty incomplete/problematical data in all honesty.

But mortality profile appears much like the 2015 influenza A(H3N2).

The lockdown always was a crazy overreaction, now the government is trapped, waiting fro some occurrence like an effective treatment or a vaccine so they can get out of it fully without looking like idiots.

We’ll probably still be making crucifix signs at each other in the streets 18 months from now.

What a fiasco.

Kenji
Reply to  MrGrimNasty
May 3, 2020 2:58 pm

Absolutely. The overreaction in America is because a certain political party adores a good crisis. Mmm mm mm … give the left a “shocking” crisis … and they’re head over heels giddy with excitement. The woke leftists like nothing better than “saving” you from yourself. Saving you from a crisis. Crises bestows unlimited POWER upon leftist politicians like CA’s Gavin Newsom. Crisis triggers his inner fascist to come gurgling out of his evil gullet. SHUT DOWN the (conservative) Orange Co. Beaches! You’re not “safe” on a beach! “You’re not socially distanced on a beach”. Arrrghh!!

Sorry to argue with the guest author here … but the American Left does NOT believe old people are “canny enough to look after themselves”. Oh no! They need a nation of ‘Karens’ telling them what to do, and how to do it. Sorry … wrong kind of a mask. Sorry, you’re wearing your mask wrong. Sorry, Joe Biden, it’s no longer safe to sniff little girls hair. Yes … life is going to be quite different now that the leftists have SEIZED emergency powers. They’ve got us all … right where they want us.

Scissor
Reply to  Kenji
May 3, 2020 4:04 pm

I’m not sure how we get out of this mess.

Remember the stories of Biden swimming nude in the presence of female SS agents? Have you seen any of the videos of government officials unable to demonstrate how to put on a mask?

Stevek
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2020 4:14 pm

SS code name for Biden was micro man.

Scissor
Reply to  Stevek
May 3, 2020 5:20 pm

🙂

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Stevek
May 3, 2020 7:56 pm

In response to those who complain that lockdowns were unnecessary, that issue has been decided by governments in the worst-affected countries (typically, countries with dense populations and little sunshine). They introduced lockdowns because otherwise their hospitals and morgues would have been overwhelmed, as London and New York very nearly were because the lockdowns were so late.

It is data such as those in the head posting that will guide the way out of lockdowns in those territories that have them. The most important data are 1) that young people are not much at risk; 2) that Sweden, with low urban population density and a small mean household size and a generally sensible population, has done just as well as many lockdown countries in controlling the pandemic (though its numbers are worse than for locked-down Scandinavian countries); 3) that the one proven prophylactic against respiratory infections is Vitamin D3, which is inexpensive and should be made compulsory, particularly for the over-50s.

Alessandro
Reply to  Stevek
May 3, 2020 9:01 pm

“difficult to achieve specificity by distinguishing between this and other coronaviridae.”

Is this not part of the CV riddle where as I understand it the labs are yet to isolate a specific virus able to pass Koch’s Postulates? If this is the case how then can we call it novel and rely on the current testing regime?

Alessandro
Reply to  Stevek
May 3, 2020 9:04 pm

I had heard nano-man

PJF
Reply to  Stevek
May 4, 2020 4:22 am

…and should be made compulsory…

And again you reveal your true self, Monckton of Brenchley.

Reply to  Stevek
May 4, 2020 9:34 am

The year was 1968. The flu was the Hong Kong flu. According to the CDC (as of yesterday) an estimated 100,000 Americans died of that flu, and one million worldwide.

The year was 1968. 9.2 million people visited Disneyland, from all over the world. Did they shut down Disneyland? No, they did not. Did they shut down restaurants? No, they did not. Did they ban flights? No. Did they even stop people from smoking on flights? No. Did they force people to show signs of obedience by wearing face masks? No.

People can decide for themselves how they want to handle something similar to a bad flu: we’ve done this before. They may make the wrong decisions, and that would be an evil. But a greater evil is the heavy hand of government– from the left or the right– coming down and deciding what’s best for the people, because this power, if exercised in an extraordinary manner as in this crisis, can easily lead to abuse: we need only recall that Hitler’s Enabling Act was called a “Law to Remedy the Distress of People and the Reich.” Those were emergency powers in 1933.

Letting people decide for themselves how they want to protect themselves from a bad flu is the lesser of two evils. Any government overreach should have been stopped dead in its tracks, but instead we had a world-wide assent to government-imposed lockdown. Flues come, people die. Get over it.

If the hospitals were to be overloaded, then that’s too damn bad: get the resources to build new hospitals if you need to, and ask the Chinese if you don’t know how to do this. It’s too damn bad that we had to wreck the economy and impose a worldwide quasi-police state, too. We had no choice in deciding which “too damn bad” we preferred. The heavy hand of governments world-wide decided for us. We are now their children, and they will tell us when we can go out, what kind of mask we have to wear, and how far apart we have to stand. It’s for our own good, so they tell us, and they took a page right out of Hitler’s playbook to remedy our distress, only it wasn’t a new law; they just went ahead and did it. They did it by 24/7 fear mongering so that the people assented, and said, “yes, take away our freedoms, this is better than dying!”

Now all they have to do is say “boo!” and we’ll go crying back to our caves. Nice job!

Kenji
Reply to  Stevek
May 4, 2020 10:52 am

My own personal physician is a strong believer in D3 … and I have been supplementing with it for years now. Smart man, my doctor.

Kenji
Reply to  Stevek
May 4, 2020 10:55 am

Well said Don 132

Reply to  Kenji
May 3, 2020 5:49 pm

The leftists have seized emergency powers and we have a President that is on the right side of the spectrum. And we have Republicans controlling the senate.

How do people come up with this nonsense?

Reply to  davidgmillsatty
May 3, 2020 8:43 pm

Karens vote. And infect twitter, and nextdoor.com …

MarkW
Reply to  davidgmillsatty
May 4, 2020 8:17 am

Typical socialist response.
Assuming that the only politicians that matter, live in DC.

Reply to  MrGrimNasty
May 3, 2020 3:09 pm

I have ordered my Plague Doctor Mask and an herbal sachet from AmaXon. They obviously worked 400 years ago, certainly as effectively as cheapo virtue signaling masks.

Adam Gallon
Reply to  Doug Huffman
May 4, 2020 7:59 am

Careful, you’ll have the police looking for you, to “Give advice”!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-52456180

Sommer
Reply to  MrGrimNasty
May 3, 2020 4:11 pm

“The lockdown always was a crazy overreaction, now the government is trapped, waiting fro some occurrence like an effective treatment or a vaccine so they can get out of it fully without looking like idiots.”
The lockdown in rural remote communities was not necessary. Situational leadership would have recognized that from the start.
Instead we had top down broad based directives. The financial harm to local living economy is serious. Was this intentional?

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Sommer
May 3, 2020 8:06 pm

In response to Sommr, paranoia is understandable during an emergency of this kind, but is not helpful. Typically, governments impose statewide restrictions because otherwise there would be substantial migrations from heavily-affected and hence heavily-restricted urban population centers to the countryside, helping to ensure that the infection is spread everywhere.

Scott
May 3, 2020 2:32 pm

Interesting, listing to a hospital doctor from the New York area on one of the news programs mentioned a significantly large % of Covid 19 patients that died were obese, far more than in the results from the UK study.

might be worth a follow up

yarpos
Reply to  Scott
May 3, 2020 2:47 pm

The basic number of obese people in the US is probably higher than the UK. They have been working on it for longer.

Kenji
Reply to  yarpos
May 3, 2020 3:05 pm

Last I looked, the UK actually had a higher rate of type-2 diabetes than the US. This suggests a higher obesity rate than the US. But the “people of Walmart” meme dies hard. I guess the fatties of America are more visible than the fatties of England. That’s because all the fatties live in the godforsaken north of England, eh? Or does the fattie-zone stretch allll the way down to the midlands?

Is there a YouTube showing the “people of wimpy’s”?

Tony Jackson
Reply to  Kenji
May 3, 2020 3:43 pm

I think they probably look harder for diabetes in the UK than they do in the USA. Given an equal screening effort who knows?

JohnM
Reply to  Kenji
May 3, 2020 11:53 pm

“Results Among those aged 20-64 the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes was lower in England (2.7%) than in the USA (5.0%). The proportion with diabetes receiving treatment was similar for the two countries. However, the mean HbA1c in England was 7.6%: in the USA it was 7.5% for those with insurance and 8.6% for those without insurance” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1557885/

Kenji
Reply to  JohnM
May 5, 2020 9:18 pm

Why not use the INTERNATIONAL Health “experts” … the WHO …

USA:
https://www.who.int/diabetes/country-profiles/
Diabetes (men and women): 9.1%
Diabetes (men): 9.8%
Overweight (men): 74.1% (women):65.3%
Obesity (men) 33.7%

UK
https://www.who.int/diabetes/country-profiles/gbr_en.pdf
Diabetes (men and women): 7.7%
Diabetes (men): 8.4%
Overweight (men): 71.1% (women): 62.4%
Obesity (men) 28.5%

OK … America is … SLIGHTLY … fatter and more diabetic than the U.K. … slightly. I’d dare say nobody would notice the difference between 71% of the Men of Wimpy’s -vs- 74.1% of the Men of Walmart as fatties. Meh. Yeah … the UK men are 3% “leaner” than we FAT Americans … yawn.

May 3, 2020 2:32 pm

What blood type is more susceptible? I have O+ positive blood type…

– JPP

Russ in the Peoples Republic of California
Reply to  Jon P Peterson
May 3, 2020 2:57 pm

You’re in luck!
According to the one study I read A is most susceptible, O is least. (I’m A)

Kenji
Reply to  Jon P Peterson
May 3, 2020 3:10 pm

I’m A+ … which I believe is the absolute worst for CHICOM-19. I’m hiding in my home like a shut-in … I even sleep with my mask on, and have stuffed rags under my bedroom door. Why? Because the geniuses at MIT said 6ft social distancing is “not enough” … we need 21ft minimum. And since MIT is … science … well … I’m in permanent hiding till “science” builds a cure for the Chinese killer virus

Reply to  Kenji
May 4, 2020 5:14 am

Kenji I wouldn’t worry too much 21 feet if someone coughs or sneezes, which you would be aware of. Viruses don’t have muscles where they could leap from person to person, the virus spreads by touching a contaminated surface and then ingesting the live virus. Covid 19’s high mortality and morbidity is due to the higher longevity of C19 on surfaces compared to other viruses.

Scissor
Reply to  Jon P Peterson
May 3, 2020 3:12 pm

Type O is less susceptible to getting into serious trouble due to less clotting propensity.

Stevek
Reply to  Jon P Peterson
May 3, 2020 4:16 pm

Type O also about 8 percent less risk of cardio vascular disease.

richard
May 3, 2020 2:33 pm

The extraordinary thing is 92% of deaths were in 11, mainly , 1st world countries without anyone knowing whether these deaths were “with” the corona virus or “of” the corona virus.

That’s what you get when you do the equivalent of estimating temp data. You can start to convince the world there is a problem.

Scissor
Reply to  richard
May 3, 2020 3:35 pm

The sad state of science and medicine is remarkable. Still, not that long ago, fat patients would be virtually non-existent and their cure would be to drain them of their blood.

icisil
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2020 4:04 pm

It wasn’t that long ago that doctors recommended blowing smoke up near-drowned persons’ bungholes to resuscitate them. I’m so glad I know where that expression comes from now.

TOBACCO SMOKE ENEMAS
https://www.bcmj.org/special-feature/special-feature-tobacco-smoke-enemas

Scissor
Reply to  icisil
May 3, 2020 8:16 pm

I can’t imagine that was a very popular job. It sure couldn’t help with getting the ladies.

“Excuse me miss, I’m a doctor and wondered if you would like to go out on a date.”

“Oh, what kind of doctor, surgeon?”

“No, I blow smoke up people’s ass.”

Kenji
Reply to  icisil
May 5, 2020 9:21 pm

Surely a current fad “health” treatment among Hollywood Actresses?

Tom in Florida
May 3, 2020 2:34 pm

The thing that stands out in the U.S. is that the majority of positive cases and deaths occur in large, older cities and their immediate surrounding area. I did some research on Michigan this morning before commenting on another site.
The entire State of Michigan has 4020 recorded deaths from COVID-19. (as of 5/01/20)
The City of Detroit accounted for 1085 of those deaths.
In Wayne County, where Detroit is located, there were 799 deaths in addition to those in the City of Detroit.
46.9% of all COVID-19 deaths in Michigan are in that area.
Two adjacent Counties, Macomb and Oakland, accounted for 625 and 745 additional deaths each.
Nearby Genese County, where the City of Flint is, has recorded 196 deaths.
That brings the total deaths in that area to 3450 out of 4020; 85.8 % of all deaths in the entire State of Michigan. 87% of those deaths were over the age of 60. There was no data on pre-existing conditions.
Yet the Governor of the State has locked down and continues to lock down the ENTIRE State.
To me that makes no sense.

yarpos
Reply to  Tom in Florida
May 3, 2020 2:49 pm

Its simpler to implement and enforce and avoids having to think

Reply to  yarpos
May 3, 2020 3:10 pm

We must ensure that such petty tyrants cannot come to power again, they must be punished with great prejudice.

Scissor
Reply to  Tom in Florida
May 3, 2020 3:45 pm

The demographics in those areas would show a large proportion of blacks living on public assistance, and obesity in Michigan, especially among blacks, is among the worst in the nation. Those areas also constitute the democratic governor’s base (in addition to Ann Arbor, Lansing and a few other areas).

Could it be that her base thinks they are being taken care of by the governor?

Kenji
Reply to  Scissor
May 5, 2020 9:25 pm

So you’re ADMITTING! This is a RACIST virus!? Ohhh mammaaa … Chinese virus passed into the black community by WHITE CIA agents … just like with … the crack. Racists!!

zurab abayev
May 3, 2020 2:34 pm

this virus is mild, but it activates in genetically predisposed individuals SIRS(systemic inflammatory response syndrome), which actually kills patients. once we figure out why some people are prone to such out of proportion response, we will master not only these but also sepsis of any kind. gimsilumab, gelsolin- this is only the beginning of massive revolution in medicine

Tom in Florida
Reply to  zurab abayev
May 3, 2020 4:19 pm

It would then follow that those with SIRS should be given immune suppressants and they will survive. But what doctor would do that? What if they died anyway and it was blamed on a suppressed immune system?

Stephen Lindsey
May 3, 2020 2:34 pm

How can their be a median in the seventies when there have been infants hospitalised?

richard
Reply to  Stephen Lindsey
May 3, 2020 2:45 pm

CDC report-
“For children (0-17 years), COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than influenza hospitalization rates during recent influenza seasons”

Children die of flu. Not of Corona.

Stephen Lindsey
Reply to  richard
May 3, 2020 3:53 pm

This is about hospitalisation raters not death raters

richard
Reply to  Stephen Lindsey
May 4, 2020 12:10 am

“For children (0-17 years), COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than influenza hospitalization rates during recent influenza seasons”

ozspeaksup
Reply to  richard
May 4, 2020 4:22 am

usually pneumonia from flu
not the actual flu itself
which is odd cos Prevnar is pretty good as far as vax goes
and few kids escape it

jtom
Reply to  Stephen Lindsey
May 3, 2020 3:17 pm

Half were seventy or over, half were seventy or under.

icisil
Reply to  Stephen Lindsey
May 3, 2020 4:16 pm

Hardly any infants have been hospitalized, but lots of people in the 70s and 80s have been.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Stephen Lindsey
May 3, 2020 4:32 pm

What’s the median of this set?

1, 3, 70, 71, 73
Answer: 70

What’s the average?
Answer: 43.6

SMS
Reply to  Stephen Lindsey
May 3, 2020 5:00 pm

If you go to Powerlineblog.com you can find the data on Minnesota deaths due to the Wuflu. The average age at death is 83 and something like 70 – 80% of those deaths are from nursing homes. But those fatalities (of the total number of deaths in Minnesota) having comorbidities is 99.24%. A pretty stunning percentage of deaths can be associated with age and ill health. The young and healthy have almost nothing to worry about.

MarkW
Reply to  Stephen Lindsey
May 4, 2020 8:23 am

Look up the difference between median and average.

Robert of Texas
May 3, 2020 2:38 pm

Some of these statistics can be misleading to people not familiar with understanding them – for example it appears from the above statistics that people with diabetes and no complications are more likely to die then people with diabetes and have complications, but I am sure that isn’t right.

What is missing is what ratio (or percentage) each set of commodities is of the total population in the data set. So I expect that people with diabetes and complications makes up a much smaller subset then does people with diabetes and no complications – in fact I would hazard a guess that diabetes+no complications has *more* than 3 times the number of people in it then diabetes+complication…that or there is something really weird going on with the disease.

Dementia is another really strange correlation to track – I suspect it is highly correlated with age and therefore higher risk of death but not actually part of the cause of death. One could just as easily correlate gray hair with risk of death.

There are other correlations that seem unrelated but could actually be interesting: Color of eyes, hair, and skin. I would not be surprised if certain human populations are more or less susceptible to this disease and eye+hair+skin color might uncover these. (Note: I avoid the term “race” as it seems too broad and careless to be useful).

The difference in outcomes based on sex is interesting, but likely is a correlation to some other sex-difference like heart disease, hypertension, etc.

John Tillman
Reply to  Robert of Texas
May 3, 2020 2:52 pm

People with darker complexions living in temperate rather than tropic zones make less vitamin D in their skin, which is why lighter complexions evolved, via two different mutations.

whiten
Reply to  Robert of Texas
May 3, 2020 3:58 pm

Robert of Texas
May 3, 2020 at 2:38 pm

for example it appears from the above statistics that people with diabetes and no complications are more likely to die then people with diabetes and have complications, but I am sure that isn’t right.
———————

Maybe, just maybe, people with diabetes and/+ extra other complications or complexities with their health and immune situation are more careful and more responsible, therefor more “insulated”, within the medications, treatments and possible therapies they take,
than people that simply have only diabetes.

cheers

A C Osborn
Reply to  whiten
May 4, 2020 4:31 am

Some of them may not have even realised they had diabetes, as they didn’t differentiate what type it was.

Pat Frank
May 3, 2020 2:42 pm

Non-peer reviewed at MedRxiv: Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19

Abstract:

Background: COVID-19 is a major pandemic that has killed more than 196,000 people. The COVID-19 disease course is strikingly divergent. Approximately 80-85% of patients experience mild or no symptoms, while the remainder develop severe disease. The mechanisms underlying these divergent outcomes are unclear. Emerging health disparities data regarding African American and homeless populations suggest that vitamin D insufficiency (VDI) may be an underlying driver of COVID-19 severity. To better define the VDI-COVID-19 link, we determined the prevalence of VDI among our COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) patients.

Methods: In an Institutional Review Board approved study performed at a single, tertiary care academic medical center, the medical records of COVID-19 patients were retrospectively reviewed. Subjects were included for whom serum 25-hydroxycholecalcifoerol (25OHD) levels were determined. COVID-19-relevant data were compiled and analyzed. We determined the frequency of VDI among COVID-19 patients to evaluate the likelihood of a VDI-COVID-19 relationship.

Results: Twenty COVID-19 patients with serum 25OHD levels were identified; 65.0% required ICU admission.The VDI prevalence in ICU patients was 84.6%, vs. 57.1% in floor patients. Strikingly, 100% of ICU patients less than 75 years old had VDI. Coagulopathy was present in 62.5% of ICU COVID-19 patients, and 92.3% were lymphocytopenic.

Conclusions: VDI is highly prevalent in severe COVID-19 patients. VDI and severe COVID-19 share numerous associations including hypertension, obesity, male sex, advanced age, concentration in northern climates, coagulopathy, and immune dysfunction. Thus, we suggest that prospective, randomized controlled studies of VDI in COVID-19 patients are warranted.

Stevek
Reply to  Pat Frank
May 3, 2020 4:19 pm

Pat, unfortunately we never hear this from the Big Pharma shill Fauci.

Pat Frank
Reply to  Stevek
May 3, 2020 10:33 pm

It would be a sorry thing if you’re right, Stevek. An advisory wouldn’t hurt, would it.

Stevek
Reply to  Pat Frank
May 4, 2020 5:24 am

Yes Pat, I would be happy just if they did advisory.

Ron
Reply to  Pat Frank
May 3, 2020 4:57 pm

Causation and correlation problem.

People with VDI might just not be as healthy and mobile so not going out and getting into the sun as much.

You need very detailed data to rule this out.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Ron
May 3, 2020 5:53 pm

In an emergency? Is lots double-blind testing for D3 supplements really necessary?

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
May 3, 2020 8:08 pm

I am most grateful to Pat Frank for the link to the Vitamin D3 study. I shall feature it in an upcoming column.

Pat Frank
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
May 3, 2020 10:48 pm

Thank-you for that, Chris. For your use, here are a couple more perhaps authoritative references.

Jonathan M. Rhodes1, et al., (2020) Invited Editorial: low population mortality from COVID-19 in countries south of latitude 35 degrees North supports vitamin D as a factor determining severity, Aliment Pharmacol. Ther. 00:1–4. here

P. E. Marik, et al., (2020) Does vitamin D status impact mortality from SARS-CoV-2 infection? Medicine in Drug Discovery Journal pre-proof, accepted, but prior to publication, here.

Both propose a link between low serum vitamin D3 and increased covid-19 mortality.

I’ve attached pdf versions in an email to you.

Ron
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
May 4, 2020 5:10 am

“In an emergency? Is lots double-blind testing for D3 supplements really necessary?”

You should treat VDI in any case. That’s not the issue.

But it is important to not jump to conclusions in regard to COVID-19 susceptibility.

Richard Hughes
May 3, 2020 2:45 pm

I can’t see from the data any particular link to obesity unless that is obesity that had not been previously identified as a morbidity. I have no clue what chronic heart disease is – sounds like a catch all term. I am assuming someone somewhere has done some work, as Pat Frank asks, onVitamin D3. I would like explaned why ethnic groups across different countries have different outcomes and I cannot believe it is entirely down to socio eocnomic factors.

And, of course, the most important thing which the study does not address is, in broad terms, where and how was the infection acquired?

Scissor
Reply to  Richard Hughes
May 3, 2020 4:27 pm

Mentioning obesity would be fat shaming, so is not tolerated. Actually, there has been a lot of anecdotal mentioning of obesity being a negative factor.

Eliza
May 3, 2020 2:45 pm

Some Corona numbers for you guys. Interesting that Sweden – the only one of the below territories to not lock down and instead try for “herd immunity” – Has the lowest % of population affected, and the second lowest for the % of deaths. The strategy seems to be working for them. Also interesting that despite the media narrative of how hard the US has been hit, it has the lowest % of population deceased, yet NY has the highest % of population deceased. Could it be the way NY treat their patients? how they record their autopsies/stats? Didn’t have time to check out other countries like AU, Italy, Spain etc. Stats taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ dated 26 April

yarpos
Reply to  Eliza
May 3, 2020 2:53 pm

On another blog I visit there are a cluster of people huffing and puffing about what a disaster Sweden is. When I look at it they seem to be tracking mid stream in Europe without crippling themselves. I guess it comes down to predictions of doom.

A C Osborn
Reply to  yarpos
May 3, 2020 3:38 pm

Try looking at Czechia who have the 10 million population.
Also look at the other small population Nordic countries.

Charlie
Reply to  yarpos
May 3, 2020 5:06 pm

I’ve seen data comparing Sweden to Michigan. They have similar demographics. Michigan, where you can’t buy plant seed for your garden, appears to be doing slightly worse.

Peter Pandemic
Reply to  Charlie
May 3, 2020 5:46 pm

You can buy plant seed in Michigan now. That order was rescinded a week ago. What’s wrong in Michigan is you can’t get your hair cut. If you’re a contractor, you can’t get permits for construction. You can’t go to a restaurant to eat. As was mentioned in an earlier comment, most of the outbreak in Michigan was in Detroit and its suburbs. Some restrictions in those areas might have made sense. But the rest of the state didn’t need them. And we let the Governor know that by protests in Lansing.

GregK
Reply to  yarpos
May 3, 2020 7:11 pm

Sweden’s death rate per million population is higher than for the US.
Swedens confirmed cases per million population are lowere than for the US but the Swedes haven’t done much testing. And the other Nordic countries have done better than Sweden.

It seems most wealthy, small, culturally homogenous countries have done better than larger, more culturally diverse countries.
Compare Latvia, Lithuania, Croatia, Greece, Singapore, South Korea with UK, France.
India ? We’ll see. Russia is also on the up.

There are obviously other factors at work as well…compare Germany and Switzerland.
Belgium compared with everybody else

jtom
Reply to  Eliza
May 3, 2020 3:27 pm

If the numbers were correct, the conclusion would be that locking down a community increases the infection rate. That, of course, is illogical. Further, if you compare Sweden’s deaths to their infections, it is far higher than most other countries.

I suspect they simply are not testing and counting the number of infections the same way as other countries. Who knows? Everything is a best (and not so best) guess.

Scissor
Reply to  Eliza
May 3, 2020 3:27 pm

Sweden is on the high end for normalized infection and death rates not the low end.

Nevertheless, the situation is not out of control or extreme. Still, one must wait longer for a meaningful analysis of the effectiveness of their strategy.

whiten
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2020 4:40 pm

Scissor
May 3, 2020 at 3:27 pm

“Still, one must wait longer for a meaningful analysis of the effectiveness of their strategy.”
——————
Short time, direct impact by their own means shows to be effective.
They done their best, in not destroying their economy, but you see they too depend on global.
A global economical, manufacturing, production and trade collapse will frack them too.
You know there is a very clear sound warning in the history of this world;
It is devastating wars and mass collapse of social-civic structures that causes plague diseases, the real blossom of death, not the other way around.

Sharp and steep decline of living standards, of or in the “herd”, is a very certain way to jeopardize what known as herd immunity.
Global imprisonment of the “herd”, if persisted for long enough could very much so lead to such as herd immunity double jeopardy… kinda a situation where death really get wings,
due to a significant, sharp and steep downturn in living standards of the
global “herd” (population). (kinda the “Slaughter House” instead of “Animal Farm”)

Swedes can afford what they doing, very easily, with no much regard about the opinion of the rest, but still cannot afford the rest fracking up big time.

A situation where really one got to seriously and carefully consider “what is wishing for”.

cheers

Scissor
Reply to  whiten
May 3, 2020 5:37 pm

Unfortunately, you are correct.

Ron
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2020 4:50 pm

Sweden really seems to mitigating the impact. That one could potentially be said.

But if this strategy is superior in the long run in comparison to other countries that contained the spread is still an open question. So far it doesn’t look like it.

My personal opinion is that the outcome in the long run depends on the soon development and availability of a working vaccine.

People are not complaint to stay in shelter too long. That could compromise all efforts taken so far and drive other countries that performed way better so far down the same road of development as Sweden.

Cause it’s not about policies, it’s about people’s behavior.

Reply to  Eliza
May 3, 2020 4:56 pm

Sweden does very poor compared to Norway and Finland, both of which have locked down.

Sweden’s death rate is 2210 per million, Norway’s death rate is 1447 per million, and Finland’s death rate is 948 per million.

brians356
Reply to  davidgmillsatty
May 3, 2020 6:36 pm

That’s easy. “Ten t’ousand Svedes ran t’ru de veeds, pursued by vun Norvegian.” And the Finns are even tougher than the Norskies – on a hockey rink, anyway.

nobodysknowledge
Reply to  davidgmillsatty
May 4, 2020 12:27 am

Sweden has 265 deaths pr million, Norway has 39 deaths pr million, Finland has 42 deaths pr million from COVID-19 (worldometers.info). The last weeks Norway and Finland have negative numbers of excess deaths. The lockdowns and measures taken result in less than average deaths.

Greg
Reply to  davidgmillsatty
May 4, 2020 4:30 am

Many people seem to think this is like some kind of baseball batting score table. It is not.

You need to wait for the long term outcomes since the principal of confinement ( no one is in “lockodwn” ) is to DELAY the spread of infections, not prevent them. Come back in 6mo and tell us whether Danmark and Norway won the season batting averages in Scandinavia.

RickWill
Reply to  Eliza
May 3, 2020 7:55 pm

The country you should compare all others with is Taiwan; the wealthiest per capita country on the globe. They have so far 432 cases and 6 deaths with near zero economic impact from CV19. They had a plan that centred on closing border early. (They warned the WHO in December 2019 of the risks. ) They then effectively traced contacts of positive cases through all available means; mostly electronic. They eradicated the virus within 2 weeks of their peak in assessed cases.

Sweden has so far resolved 3684 cases. 2,679 (73%) of those cases were deaths. The simplicity of the Swedish strategy avoids the need to trace contacts. Inevitably those that are assessed as positive at hospital admission are already seriously ill, So most of them die. So far they have 22,317 cases. So if their fatality rate remains at 73% then they have already locked in 16,291 deaths from CV19.

South Korea, Australia and New Zealand were all slower than Taiwan to recognise the risk but all had effective contact tracing teams in place. These countries have all but eradicated the virus from within their borders.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  RickWill
May 3, 2020 8:12 pm

Rickwill is right: early action to test, track and trace is what defeats pandemics of this kind. South Korea and Taiwan did exactly the right thing, and South Korea’s government benefited by being re-elected with the largest majority in recent history.

Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
May 3, 2020 11:14 pm

How long do they have to continue strict border controls for? How susceptible to new outbreaks do they remain? What impact will this have on their ability to travel and receive visitors, their tourism industry?

RickWill
Reply to  Will Jones
May 4, 2020 9:49 am

International travel between Australia and New Zealand is already being sorted.

I expect there will be a growing club of countries that have eradicated the virus. Travel between them will be unhindered.

Travel from infected countries will require quarantine upon entry until there is a vaccine. Those entering could avoid quarantine if they are immune and not a potential carrier.

Precautions on interpersonal contact will continue but greater freedom of travel and association. The contact tracing teams will remain in place. Australia has taken up the Singapore developed contact tracing app. The contract tracing processes they have developed are very effective at tracking and isolating sources.

Countries seeking herd immunity will be at it for years unless there is an effective vaccine. The death rate in countries that have effectively eradicated CV19 is around 2%, which is one to two orders of magnitude higher than seasonal flu. So interpersonal contact will need to be restricted for years to avoid overloading the medical infrastructure until the virus is eradicated; there is 80% or so with immunity to naturally slow the spread or there is an effective vaccine. It is very hard to get the genie back in once it is out.

Terry
Reply to  RickWill
May 3, 2020 8:25 pm

With Taiwan basicly of a war footing with China, they were ready…

Countryman
May 3, 2020 2:46 pm

I can’t see from the table any particular link to obesity unless that is obesity that had not been previously identified as a morbidity. I have no clue what chronic heart disease is – sounds like a catch all term. I am assuming someone somewhere has done some work, as Pat Frank asks, onVitamin D3. I would like explaned why ethnic groups across different countries have different outcomes and I cannot believe it is entirely down to socio economic factors.

And, of course, the most important thing which the study does not address is, in broad terms, where and how was the infection acquired?

brians356
Reply to  Countryman
May 3, 2020 6:39 pm

FWIW:

“In God we trust. All others bring data.”

W. Edwards Deming

May 3, 2020 2:50 pm

The other day you commented that the non Covid-19 excess deaths in the UK were likely unidentified Covid-19 deaths. However Hector Drummond has analysed them and found they are 50:50 male female, making it unlikely as Covid-19 deaths split 60:40. Details here https://thecritic.co.uk/is-the-lockdown-killing-people/.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Will Jones
May 3, 2020 8:28 pm

In response to Mr Jones, the Office for National Statistics has concluded that the most likely reason for the excess mortality over and above the reported Chinese-virus infections is unreported Chinese-virus infections. A 50:50 distribution between male and female in the excess-mortality figures is not a large enough difference from 60:40 to call that conclusion into question.

MarkW
Reply to  Will Jones
May 4, 2020 8:32 am

Non-Covid19 excess deaths will naturally include both undetected Covid-19 deaths and a lot of deaths that had nothing to do with Covid-19, you can’t directly compare the male/female ratio between the two groups.

May 3, 2020 2:51 pm

This is a study of hospitalized patients, diagnosed with COVID-19.

I’m interested in a study of the whole population, where this specific segment is a subset.

People die in hospitals — not that unusual. Many older people die in hospitals — not that unusual. There are studies that focus on the issue of deaths in hospitals and trends in hospital deaths.

I’m not seeing how a study focused on hospitalized patients tells us a great deal more than we already realized about COVID-19. This study solidifies this realization, granted.

But I still have concerns about the accuracy of testing for the disease-causing pathogen and the correct appraisal of underlying cause of death.

Every little bit of info helps, for sure, but, so far, the info still seems to be about a limited population, namely the most severely affected population, located in sites that treat the most severely affected.

Lock downs and distancing have been instituted based on the most severely affected, tested and treated at locations designed specifically for the most severely affected — thereby punishing the whole population based on a segment of the population. Reminds me of teachers in my grade-school years who punished the whole class, because of one or two student’s behavior, or my high school track coach who made the whole team run extra laps, because a few misbehaving members didn’t meet his expectations.

Steve Reddish
May 3, 2020 3:20 pm

“Median” is usually used to designate the numerical middle point of some set of numbers.
In this case, a median age of 72 for hospitalizations simply means an equal number of patients were under 72 as over 72.
“Median” is not the same as the midpoint of the range of ages.
SR

rbabcock
May 3, 2020 3:31 pm

only 8% obese? I find that hard to believe. They must use a loose definition of obesity.

From a Vitamin D perspective, 15 minutes of body exposure of a higher angle Sun a day will give you plenty. For enough UV-B to get through the atmosphere, the Sun needs to be 35-40 deg or higher, which is a big issue for anyone above say Atlanta in the NH during Dec/Jan. In the UK that puts you at risk for half the year.

Scissor
Reply to  rbabcock
May 3, 2020 4:31 pm

The other day I heard a mother say that her 36 yo son died of CV-19 and he had no underlying issues, other than being a little overweight. He weighed 400 pounds.

Bill_W_1984
Reply to  rbabcock
May 3, 2020 6:04 pm

In the US, >40% have Vit. D deficiency and >80% African Americans.

niceguy
May 3, 2020 3:39 pm

No data on flu vaccine as a corona risk factor?

philf
May 3, 2020 4:42 pm

MofB: I have read all of your pieces. Why so little said here about HCQ?

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  philf
May 3, 2020 8:16 pm

In response to philf, I have mentioned hydroxychloroquine briefly in one or two previous pieces, but have explained that it should only be taken on the advice of a doctor because it has dangerous side-effects in some patients. Like many other nostrums that have been mentioned, if it works at all (and the literature seems to speak with forked tongue on that issue), it is only likely to work if administered in the very early stages after symptoms show.

Toto
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
May 3, 2020 10:15 pm

“it is only likely to work if administered in the very early stages after symptoms show”

Or even better, start taking it before then, from now until this is over, as a preventative.
That and Vitamin D and and a few other things.

At those low dosages, the side effects are grossly exaggerated.

And research which hospitals have treatment regimes that work. Just in case.

Terry
Reply to  Toto
May 3, 2020 10:31 pm

It is not the virus that kills you. It is your bodies immune system. Improper backend care of covid is the thing no one is discussing

icisil
Reply to  Terry
May 4, 2020 5:25 am

People are conditioned not to see iatrogenesis. It’s a huge paradigm shift for most people.

Chris Hanley
May 3, 2020 4:53 pm

That smoking is in only 5% of ‘comorbidities’ is counterintuitive (I gave up 45 years ago) but the cardiac disease, non-asthmatic lung disease and cancer categories may also include past or present smokers.

Mister Bitcoin
Reply to  Scissor
May 3, 2020 5:50 pm

I saw that in France (nicotine patches)

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Chris Hanley
May 4, 2020 4:26 am

might be but the fact is smokers arent high on the dying lists France is providing patches for patients
and copd and asthma arent the higher risks either

Bruser
May 3, 2020 5:10 pm

One critical piece of info missing from the data is how many of those who died in hospital had co-morbidities. We know that 53% of those who were admitted had co-morbidities, and 33% of those who were admitted died. But how many of those who died had co-morbidities?

Bruser
Reply to  Bruser
May 3, 2020 10:12 pm

Having accessed the actual paper, it does contain this info … quote: “The median age of those who died in hospital from COVID-19 in the UK was 80 years, and only 12% of these patients had no documented comorbidity.” So, 82% of those who died had co-morbidities on admission.

Alexander Vissers
Reply to  Bruser
May 4, 2020 1:43 am

100%-12%=88%?

Bruser
Reply to  Alexander Vissers
May 4, 2020 3:19 pm

It was obviously too late for me!

John
May 3, 2020 5:20 pm

Excuse me, I disagree with the term “C virus” used in the title of this article. The term brings about a negative connotation for people living in that country as well as the diaspora living elsewhere. Average people in the country and people with Asian heritage are innocent victims of the virus as well. Until we figure out what exactly happened, a neutral term of COVID-19 is more appropriate.

GregK
Reply to  John
May 3, 2020 6:35 pm

OVID-19?

The Dark Lord
Reply to  John
May 3, 2020 6:41 pm

its the virus that originated in China … it only brings about a negative connotation because you are crazy …

Mike From Au
Reply to  The Dark Lord
May 3, 2020 7:26 pm

If it is true a country can win in a war without firing a single shot, then ‘name calling’ is demonstrating exactly one of the processes of how this transpires, down to the finest detail.

Mike From Au
Reply to  John
May 3, 2020 7:05 pm

I agree John.
It is extremely poor form to start name calling and so forth when our collective existence depends on good relations, especially at this time when we are all so vulnerable.
Easily the most reprehensible behavior i have seen allowed to continue on this blog.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Mike From Au
May 3, 2020 8:21 pm

I call the Chinese virus the Chinese virus just as I call a spade a spade. It is important to remember throughout that this virus only spread worldwide because China dishonoured an international treaty requiring it to report new and fatal infections within 24 hours, and then lied to the effect that it could not be transmitted from person to person, the lie being echoed by the World Death Organization.

After this is over, it will be necessary to abolish the useless WHO and start again with a new, smaller, more high-powered body that is not wholly controlled by China, and to hold China to account so that the Communists do not commit crimes against humanity to the detriment of the global population ever again.

Mike From Au
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
May 3, 2020 9:01 pm

Perhaps you can satisfy yourself of this need to hold “China” accountable until after things settle somewhat.

If you continue with this spade calling, it will only further enhance the control of those in power i fear, and so you are playing exactly into their hands with incredible efficacy.

You will find no ‘thanks’ from me.

george Tetley
Reply to  Mike From Au
May 4, 2020 1:42 am

I speak as New Zealander who lived and worked in China for 8 years (helecopters pilot Chinese government ) If you think that the political elight in China is.difrent from elsewhere? China has had hundreds of years more experience in decete than the rest of the world, just ask a Chinese. Thank you Lord Christopher

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Mike From Au
May 4, 2020 3:29 am

“george Tetley May 4, 2020 at 1:42 am

Thank you Lord Christopher.

He is no more a “Lord” than you or I. Refrain from using the term.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Mike From Au
May 4, 2020 3:34 am

“george Tetley May 4, 2020 at 1:42 am”

Yes. 5000 years or more to cook up fake stuff, even food. Ever wonder why you are always hungry after eating Chinese?

PJF
Reply to  Mike From Au
May 4, 2020 4:50 am

He is no more a “Lord” than you or I. Refrain from using the term.

Unless george Tetley and Patrick MJD are members of the peerage, then Monckton of Brenchley is, indeed, more of a lord than they. Just a fact on the ground.

Within the rules people are free to address others as they wish. For myself, unless I know them personally or there is an established alternative, I stick to the forum identity chosen by the one I am addressing or referring.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Mike From Au
May 4, 2020 5:12 am

“PJF May 4, 2020 at 4:50 am”

Genuflect away at said “Lord”. He is no lord of mine.

PJF
Reply to  Mike From Au
May 4, 2020 5:46 am

I don’t think my left knee is up to it, Patrick MJD.

Of course, pointing out realities doesn’t mean one likes them or agrees with them.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
May 4, 2020 6:44 am

Hear hear.

Steven Mosher
May 3, 2020 5:47 pm

Mob

‘Features of 16,749 hospitalized UK patients with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterization Protocol is full of useful facts of which governments can take advantage.”

I posted this up a while ago ( there is a another study coming out as well)

Now, let me take a minute to get on my hobby horse ( like Dr. Slop I suppose) and complain about the
actual lack of data in these types of reports.

The results are of course important but what is lacking is the ACTUAL data.

The actual data ( patient x, weight, age, co morbidity, etc, vitamin D level ) would allow
us to combine data from many sources. patient data from New York, from Korea, From France,
From Sweden, UK.

The actual data would allow us to calculate risk ratios for combinations of factors.

What are the odds ratios by age and weight? by age and comorbidity? by smoking age and weight
by vitamin d levels, by age and weight.

This data exists.

This data was used to create the results.

But we don’t have access to this data. We only get the tabulations.

So one study will tabulate ages by decades. 20-30 for example. Another study will cluster it 18-64
This is data madness.

If the WHO is good for anything it should be good for creating standards of reporting and collecting
and PUBLISHING anonymized patent data at the most granular level. Patient X.

It’s a fricking pandemic. We have a right to this data . we need to be able to combine data from
Multiple areas. Today we cant because researchers publish RESULTS and Summary stats.
the don’t publish the underlying data

I don’t want the young and healthy to remained trapped if the data shows that most of the risk is
to men X years old with BMIs over Y and low Vitamin D… For example.

there are MILLIONS of cases and hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations and recoveries.

We need the data. Not the results. you get the data published and 1000 data science experts
will hop on that data and in short order you will known what clusters of factors are most important

Reply to  Steven Mosher
May 3, 2020 7:24 pm

+1

terry
Reply to  Steven Mosher
May 3, 2020 7:36 pm

One other big point to make of all this.

What protocol was used to treat these patients as they go into septic shock covid style.

With out this info….

Is the WHO still recomending against anti inflammatory and anti coagulation drugs?

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  terry
May 3, 2020 8:25 pm

Mr Mosher is right: the useless WHO should have introduced proper reporting and data-handling protocols to a uniform standard long ago. Unfortunately, the organization is so wholly controlled by China that its mission throughout has been to protect the Communist regime rather than doing its job. It is time to abolish the existing organization entirely, forbid any of its current senior personnel from ever holding public office again, and start again from scratch with a smaller, more high-powered body that admits Taiwan as well as China to its membership.

Terry
Reply to  Monckton of Brenchley
May 3, 2020 8:30 pm

It is even worse with the WHO, they put out unwise treatment info that got a lot of people killed.

See my other posts on EVMS protocol page 9

A C Osborn
Reply to  Steven Mosher
May 4, 2020 4:34 am

You forgot ethnicity.

Berni3
May 3, 2020 5:51 pm

It was W Edwards Deming who made quote about God and data. His work was, to a large degree, responsible for the post World War 2 Japanese manufacturing and economic miracle

Peter Pandemic
May 3, 2020 6:05 pm

You can buy plant seed in Michigan now. That order was rescinded a week ago. What’s wrong in Michigan is you can’t get your hair cut. If you’re a contractor, you can’t get permits for construction. You can’t go to a restaurant to eat. As was mentioned in an earlier comment, most of the outbreak in Michigan was in Detroit and its suburbs. Some restrictions in those areas might have made sense. But the rest of the state didn’t need them. And we let the Governor know that by protests in Lansing.

Scissor
Reply to  Peter Pandemic
May 3, 2020 8:19 pm

Can you hunt for morels? It must be about their season.

Did you know that mushrooms tend to contain high levels of vitamin D?

Mike From Au
May 3, 2020 6:18 pm

While the author of this latest blog was looking at possible up and coming block buster studies, i was studying Dr Watson and Sherlock Holmes to find as to a possible reason hospitals are clinging to corona patients for dear life.

From: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/private-hospitals-running-at-just-33-of-capacity-says-hse-1.4241286
“Private hospitals are currently operating at only 33 per cent capacity, opposition parties were told by the HSE at a Covid-19 briefing on Wednesday.”

“Public hospitals are currently between 80 to 90 per cent capacity, according to three TDs who were present for the meeting.”

GUILLERMO SUAREZ
May 3, 2020 6:23 pm

“Half the patients admitted to hospitals had no co-morbidities .”I would like to see their admission criteria . Also discharge criteria fromER. Anecdotally ,in the hospital where I practice, of those admitted to ICU , much greater than 80% have co-morbidities.

May 3, 2020 6:29 pm

There may be a largely ignored benefit for countries such as Australia that imposed fairly rapid public lockdown and self-isolation regimes.

Lockdowns significantly reduce transmission of other communicable diseases (e.g. influenza, meningococcal, hepatitis, cholera, tuberculosis, malaria, syphilis, whooping cough, measles, meningitis, dengue, tetanus, etc).

Analysis of data from Australia’s National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (http://www9.health.gov.au/cda/source/rpt_1_sel.cfm) is interesting.

Among 67 diseases listed, excluding COVID-19, monthly notification totals show …

March 2019 – 147
March 2020 – 110.1

However, Australia’s self-isolation hadn’t fully kicked in until April …

April 2019 – 166.6
April 2020 – 51.8

The 67 diseases range from hepatitis to salmonella, tuberculosis, chlamydia, gonorrhoea, malaria and Ross River Virus.

Alternatively, the Immunisation Coalition (https://www.immunisationcoalition.org.au/news-media/2020-influenza-statistics/) has stats specifically on Australian influenza cases, currently updated to 27 April 2020 …

March 2019 – 11,158
March 2020 – 5,863

April 2019 – 18,667
April 2020 – 179

A caveat to the figures above might be that COVID-19 fears have discouraged some people from visiting GP clinics or hospitals, but they are very large reductions and logic dictates they are mostly due to social distancing.

According to the ABS, Australia had 3,102 deaths from influenza/pneumonia in 2018 and 1,255 deaths solely from influenza in 2017.

Although all Australian states will probably have ended social isolation measures in about a month, assuming there’s no COVID-19 resurgence and if the monthly disease figures above are accurate, an argument might be put that COVID-19 has been a lifesaver in Australia where the current COVID-19 death toll is 95.

Australia’s total health spending in 2017-18 was $185.4 billion. Notwithstanding possibly increased expenditure on cabin fever mental health issues and welfare for unemployed medical workers (I’m kidding -sort of), a very long public lockdown period should generate some savings from the suppression of non-COVID-19 communicable diseases – but certainly nowhere near enough to offset the economic cost if the issue is considered only from a financial perspective.

Countries with arguably slow implementation of lockdown measures have higher short-term COVID-19 fatality rates, but they also might see a reduction in other diseases. It may seem a heartless acceptance of COVID-19 deaths, but other diseases also cause unpublicised suffering and grief so their suppression should be included in any eventual analysis of the cost of the virus pandemic.

Monckton of Brenchley
Reply to  Chris Gillham
May 3, 2020 8:32 pm

Mr Gillham’s information is most useful, if not at all unexpected. Given that there ought to be a reduction in overall excess mortality from the factors that he mentions, the fact that there is very large excess mortality in recent weeks indicates still more strongly that the Chinese virus is the reason.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Chris Gillham
May 4, 2020 3:03 am

“Chris Gillham May 3, 2020 at 6:29 pm

Lockdowns significantly reduce transmission of other communicable diseases (e.g. influenza, meningococcal, hepatitis, cholera, tuberculosis, malaria, syphilis, whooping cough,…”

I call BS on that!

A C Osborn
Reply to  Patrick MJD
May 4, 2020 4:39 am

Why, it is a form of Quarantine, which has always reduced communicable diseases .
Are you a “history denier”?

Patrick MJD
Reply to  A C Osborn
May 4, 2020 5:17 am

Syphilis? Are you as mad as Hitler?

Reply to  Patrick MJD
May 4, 2020 6:16 pm

I can’t quite make head or tail of the BS and Hitler/syphilis responses to my earlier contribution.

With nightclubs, pubs and parties shut down for more than a month, good luck to the spread of syphilis, gonorrhoea and other sexually transmitted diseases. Couples stuck at home together might be bonking a bit more than usual (I doubt it) but if either suddenly has syphilis then the other can probably expect a divorce.

On a more serious note, the Australian Immunisation Coalition data (https://www.immunisationcoalition.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/4May-Aust-Flu-Stats-2020.pdf) has been updated to 4 May so it presumably now includes all influenza cases for the month of April.

April 2019 – 18,667
April 2020 – 262

It should be noted that 2019 was a very bad year in Australia for influenza and the previous four years from 2015 to 2018 averaged only 2,141 cases. Indeed, in 2009 there were only 275.

However, the drop from 18,667 to 262 remains a strong indicator that the lockdown has suppressed the transmission of communicable diseases other than COVID-19.

Australia’s National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (http://www9.health.gov.au/cda/source/rpt_1_sel.cfm) has also updated its April figures for 67 communicable diseases, excluding COVID-19, and there’s been a slight increase …

April 2019 – 166.6
April 2020 – 52.8

It’s way too early in the month to draw conclusions but the NDSS also has early figures for May, having been updated today – 5 May.

May 2019 – 224.7
To 5 May 2020 – 0.6

Way too early, as I say, because I don’t know how immediate is their notification system from state and territory health authorities. However, the early indicator is that Australia’s lockdown has put a big dent in the transmission of diseases other than COVID-19.

The Dark Lord
May 3, 2020 6:37 pm

the average age of deaths in Europe has been around 80 for last 6 weeks … didn’t need a “study” to tell us the old are the at risk, the death stats told us that …

this is just more experts telling us that the thing on the front of your face is actually a nose … after careful study of course …

these guys couldn’t get wet falling out of a boat …

The Dark Lord
Reply to  The Dark Lord
May 3, 2020 6:50 pm

Finally, hard data ? European countries have been publishing deaths by age for weeks now … daily … we have had hard data for awhile …

waiting for some “expert” to actually look at it seems to be pure folly on steroids …

the lockdowns were premised on certain assumptions …
we now have real data to substitute for those assumptions (most of which were wrong)

the facts have changed, why have the options/policies of policy makers not changed ?

Is it becasue they knew their assumptions where wrong all along and just an excuse for their policies ?

Monckton of Brenchley