The Math Of Epidemics

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Watts Up With That is about more than just the climate. It’s also about interesting things in the world. So if you’re looking for just climate, this isn’t the post for you. However, it’s an interesting peregrination through the world of the mathematics of illness.

We’ve been hearing a lot about “exponential growth” in relation to the cases, spread, and mortality of the Wuhan Virus. And to be sure, it is indeed a global health crisis, one we need to take very seriously.

The curious part is, “exponential growth” doesn’t actually describe the progress of a given disease. Exponential growth never stops—it just gets larger and larger, going up and up without end. But that’s not what happens with a disease. 

For example, here’s what has been happening with the total number of Wuhan Virus cases in South Korea.

Figure 1. South Korean total cases of Wuhan Virus since the beginning of the epidemic. SOURCE

We see the same shape of curve regarding the total number of deaths in China.

Figure 2. Total deaths in China from the Wuhan Virus since the illness took hold. SOURCE

Now, this particular “s-shaped” curve is called a “Gompertz Curve”. It is a curious curve, in that it is not symmetrical. It goes up faster than it levels off. Here’s an example.

Figure 3. A typical Gompertz Curve, which describes the evolution of the number of total cases or the number of total deaths in an epidemic.

So I thought I’d see how well those two graphs in Figures 1 & 2 could be fit by a Gompertz Curve. First, here’s the graph of the South Korean total cases, along with the best-fit Gompertz Curve:

Figure 4. Total Wuhan Virus cases, South Korea, along with the best-fit Gompertz curve for the data.

You can see why the Gompertz Curve is used to describe epidemics—it’s a very good fit to real-world epidemiological data. And because any given Gompertz Curve ends up at some maximum value that it doesn’t exceed, it also allows us to estimate the part of the curve that hasn’t happened yet. So far, there have been some 7,362 cases in South Korea. The Gompertz Curve estimates that the final total will be on the order of some 8,100 cases or so. 

Now, that’s not a hard number, of course. All kinds of things can happen to bend the curve either up or down. But it’s better than just making a blind guess.

Next, here is the same kind of look, data plus best-fit Gompertz Curve, but at the deaths in China.

Figure 5. Total Wuhan Virus deaths, China, along with the best-fit Gompertz curve for the data.

Again, with the same caveats as before, we can take an educated guess at what the total number of deaths is likely to be. By the end, the Gompertz Curve estimates about 3,500 deaths. 

Finally, let’s take a look at the deaths in South Korea. It’s still early, deaths are still happening, so this will be more uncertain.

Figure 6. Total Wuhan Virus deaths, South Korea, along with the best-fit Gompertz curve for the data.

Although the uncertainty in this one is greater, it looks at present like the final total of deaths in South Korea will be on the order of one hundred, give or take.

Conclusions

On my planet at least, this is very good news. Deaths in China look like they will be on the order of 3,500 lives lost. Cases in South Korea are near to peaking. And although it’s early to do this kind of analysis on the number of deaths in South Korea, to date there have only been 60 deaths, and the best fit Gompertz Curve peaks out at a hundred deaths.

Please be clear, though, that I’m not minimizing the danger. A virus of this nature can do immense harm if we don’t stay ahead of it. What I’m saying is that China and South Korea show that we indeed can stay ahead of it.

So let me suggest that we take all precautions, wash hands, social distancing, canceling large gatherings, testing as and when required, self-quarantine, it’s very important to slow the virus down … and that we also dial way back on the hysteria and the politicization of the issue. I assure you, assigning blame to one political party or the other and buying six cases of toilet paper won’t help end the epidemic. Although I must confess, thanks to the web I finally understand the panic buying of toilet paper. I read that it’s because when one person sneezes, a hundred people soil their underpants … so don’t be one of them. 


Here on my hillside, I don’t need social distancing. I’m a hermit anyhow, have been for a while now. I hate going to town, and I love my forest home. The plum trees in our entry were fooled into blossoming by the warm dry February.

But then the plum trees got surprised by the March rains. The ground underneath them looked like a local snowfall, there was not a blossom left on the limbs … we’ll see if we get any plums in the fall.

I spent the day using the weedwhacker to give a haircut to the flowers and greenery growing up through the bricks on the patio I built … perhaps I should have put down geotextile fabric, but I do like the way the plants never stop shouldering their way up through the tiny crevices. I take it as a sign of hope, that life endures no matter the obstacles.

My best to all, wash your hands, stay well in these parlous times.

w.

As Usual: I ask that when you comment you quote the exact words that you are responding to. This avoids endless misunderstandings and disagreements.

Data: All of the data is from the Worldometer site.

For Math Geeks Like Me: The Gompertz Curve is defined as

y(t) = α * exp(-β * exp(-k * t))

where

t = time
alpha = upper asymptote
beta  = growth displacement
k = growth rate

On Political Correctness: Yes, I know that the wokerati have taken up the cry that calling it the “Chinese Coronavirus” or the “Wuhan Virus” is RACIST!!!, their go-to accusation to try to discount anyone they don’t like. Consider it my small blow for freedom of speech and not bowing to political pressure. Me, I’m the least PC guy imaginable, and I was brought up in a household where racism was simply not tolerated in any form, so trying to bust me for being RACIST!! just doesn’t work. I know who I am.

And if you think that the people who are claiming that this is RACIST!!! actually believe it and it’s not just sleazy political maneuvering, consider the following two tweets, six weeks apart:

Followed by …

However, if you insist on taking that route, before you bust me for calling it the Wuhan Virus because it originated in Wuhan, please let me know your racism-free politically 100% correct alternative names for each of the following illnesses, all of which are named for their place of origination:

  • Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever
  • Lyme Disease
  • Marburg Fever
  • West Nile Virus
  • Valley Fever
  • Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)
  • Ebola Virus
  • German Measles
  • Lassa Fever
  • Ross River Fever
  • La Crosse Encephalitis
  • Legionnaire’s Disease
  • St. Louis Encephalitis
  • Heartland Virus
  • Bornholm Disease
  • Junin Virus
  • Nipah Virus
  • Rift Valley Fever
  • Zika Virus
  • Norovirus

I mean, we don’t want to be RACIST!! regarding the people of St. Louis or the inhabitants of the Rocky Mountains, do we? …

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Earthling2
March 13, 2020 10:11 pm

The Spanish Flu epidemic didn’t really start in Spain either, although there may be some debate where it actually got going first. I don’t really understand the part of racism of calling it the Wuhan virus. Isn’t that an exact description? That is where it started, and is undeniable. Wouldn’t it be racist to call Chinese food, Chinese food if we use that metric?

Ferd III
Reply to  Earthling2
March 14, 2020 1:16 am

10 dead in the UK, 0.03% death rate – all the deaths are older people. BoJo promises piles of dead, families torn apart etc etc.

30.000 dead this past winter from the ‘common’ flu. Everyone yawns.

Fake News, Fake Science conclusion. ‘Common’ flu is not a problem. Mass hysteria over a stronger flu with pneumatic symptoms, dangerous to the elderly means the end of the economy, social destruction, indeed the end of the world. Buy toilet paper.

Corona (and globaloneywarming) just proves how easy it is to whip up the peasant mass into herds of frightened crying sheep. Yes this flu may be stronger than the ‘common’ flu, but given that the common flu kills literally, hundreds of thousands each year world-wide, why isn’t that a ‘pandemic’ and why isn’t there a plan to remediate?

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Ferd III
March 14, 2020 10:57 am

Ferd III
Yes, it is interesting how cavalier the world’s population is about seasonal flu when so many die each and every year. I suppose part of the reaction is a result of not knowing just how bad COVID-19 is or could be. The irony may be that if world economies are ruined by the extreme measures being put in place, and people lose their jobs, and supply-lines are disrupted, there is the potential for more people dying of starvation and unavailable medical care than from COVID-19.

Earthling2
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
March 14, 2020 1:21 pm

Clyde…I think it possible that many healthy young people might commit suicide when all hope is lost when the economy tanks big time, and healthy people losing their jobs and homes/cars and can’t pay back their consumer debt. Some cures are worse than the disease, just as you say.

I understand the need to flatten the curve so as not to overwhelm the health system, the next few weeks/month and we temporarily suspend travel and social interaction to buy time. But a virologist expert I heard talking about this said that if we want to really slow this thing down, ultimately we need to build up the herd immunity in the general population asap so as the virus itself becomes unavailable to transmit in large numbers. The would mean quarantining the elderly/vulnerable at risk populations and allow the general population to acquire the antibodies so as to slow the virus ability to both infect and mutate. It might be unpleasant for the majority of healthy people, but the cat is out of the bad and sooner or later probably the vast majority of us will catch this, just like a common cold going around.

old orange
Reply to  Earthling2
March 20, 2020 12:10 pm

Check out the TB mortality worldwide per year even today, about 1.4 million(?) as it has been slowly reducing yoy. And lets not even mention china’s 23,000,000 (23 MILLION) abortions a year.

Eric H
Reply to  Ferd III
March 14, 2020 11:02 am

Looks like you need a bit of data Fred.

The infection rate is basically double the normal flu. So for example if 10 million get the flu in the US, we should expect 20 million to get Wuhan. The death rate of the flu is 0.1% so 10,000 would die. The estimated death rate of Wuhan is from 1-3% so 100,000-300,000 would die. This is bad, but not the worst part…

The hospitalization rate for the flu is 0.5% so 50,000 people require a bed. The hospitalization rate of Wuhan is estimated at 20% so 2 MILLION people would need a bed….do you think we have that many beds?? Also, hospitalization for this virus per WHO definition means the person needs oxygen or ventilation.

We dont have the healthcare capacity for these numbers, no where does. Why do you think China built hospitals in 10 days. You see at what is happening in Italy with triaging cases based on age and ability to survive.

Wake up! This is not “Just the flu, bro”…

PMHinSC
Reply to  Eric H
March 14, 2020 1:14 pm

According to the CDC during the 2017-18 flu season 35,000,000 people got the flu, 810,000 required hospitalization, and 61,000 died; and most of us didn’t notice. So far this year, the CDC says 35,000,000 have had or have the flu, 490,000 have required hospitalization, and 34,000 have died. Estimates for the the future of COVID-19 reminds me of Yogi Berra: “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Hoser
Reply to  Eric H
March 14, 2020 1:21 pm

We have no solid idea what the hospitalization rate is for COVID-19. How many people get it and don’t realize it was that virus and not a bad cold? It’s then unreported. I think I had it. Almost certainly. Sick for a month, deep chest cold. I wouldn’t mind being tested, but other people need testing more than I do.

It also strikes people of different ages very differently. Almost no deaths among children under 10. Rates low until hit 60 y. Then 2/3 of deaths among those over 70. Most have a pre-existing health condition.

So for most people, it is like a bad flu. There is no good reason to destroy the economy, unless you are a Dem and believe ruining the economy will help keep Trump from getting re-elected. There is otherwise no chance Biden will win.

The hysteria is manufactured, just like the hysteria around the “climate emergency” is manufactured.

Non Nomen
Reply to  Hoser
March 14, 2020 4:10 pm

What have Biden or Sanders to offer? Support? Fresh ideas? Constructiveness? Nothing at all, just foul-mouthed Kindergarten criticism. God bless America, God bless DJT.

holly elizabeth Birtwistle
Reply to  Eric H
March 14, 2020 1:46 pm

No Eric H. You will not get anywhere near those death numbers from Covid-19. It is NOT Influenza, it behaves differently because unlike Influenza, we are not a natural host for Covid-19. The infection is NOT double Influenza, it is much much lower. It is harder to contract, and does not spread like Influenza, it also only kills the elderly and weak, like most viruses. Did you not read Willis’s article on the Gombertz curve? Covid-19 is following it exactly. You can see that Covid-19 deaths in China are peaking at about 3500, although it is too early to say that for sure yet. Ferd III’s comments are accurate, yours are not. Where on Earth are you getting your information? I suggest you listen to the CDC.

Eric H
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 14, 2020 4:06 pm

Willis

Very much respect all of your research and writing on this site. Have been on here since Climategate, and dont usually post.

IMO the Korean experience is a best case scenario. I also dont believe the numbers out of China, I think they are too low. The numbers I cited were based on preliminary numbers from WHO and if you look at the numbers out of Italy they track closer to that than Korea does. Italy may be more in line with what the US will experience, as Koreans were quick to lock down and start wearing masks.

https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/

RobR
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 17, 2020 4:28 pm

Willis and Eric,

The Korean statistics are not reliable due to tests kits returning large false positives. During the Whitehouse briefing today, one of the doctors indicated inaccuracy rates of 50%.

Jeff Id
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 23, 2020 2:34 am

I’m more scared of the government response than the Wuhan flu itself.

RobR
Reply to  Eric H
March 17, 2020 12:55 pm

Darn straight! Why is this so hard for people grasp.

Reply to  Eric H
March 25, 2020 3:47 pm

Everything you point out is correct. But it’s difficult to compare (apples to apples) the Flu which has a vaccine with the Coronavirus which has no vaccine. I would imagine the Flu death rates and contagion rates would be much higher than the 0.1% reported value if there were no treatment measures and vaccine for the Flu. Conversely the death rate for Coronavirus would be lower if we had a vaccine and proven treatment options. Therefore the severeness and the death rates between the two illnesses might not be very different if these conditions existed.

Reply to  Eric H
March 25, 2020 3:48 pm

Everything you point out is correct. But it’s difficult to compare (apples to apples) the Flu which has a vaccine with the Coronavirus which has no vaccine. I would imagine the Flu death rates and contagion rates would be much higher than the 0.1% reported value if there were no treatment measures and vaccine for the Flu. Conversely the death rate for Coronavirus would be lower if we had a vaccine and proven treatment options. Therefore the severeness and the death rates between the two illnesses might not be very different if these conditions existed.

Scissor
Reply to  Ferd III
March 14, 2020 11:40 am

There are efforts to remediate influenza, such as development of drugs like Tamifu, and development of flu vaccines. It’s difficult to say how effective these efforts are. They do not appear to be very effective.

Javert Chip
Reply to  Scissor
March 14, 2020 3:56 pm

Scissor

“…They [annual flu shots] do not appear to be very effective…”.

Full disclosure: I’m a retired CFO, not a medical doctor.

To research your comment (unclear if it was snide or analytical; you provided no reference), I’ve rephrased it as “what protection does the annual US flu shot offer”.

CDC studies indicate 57% of the US population receives the shot (43% refuse or are “too busy”); with this level of vaccine penetration, flu infection is reduced 40-60% (some directly attributable to an individual receiving a shot & some to the “herd” effect).

Yes, yes, yes; I understand the vaccine is more effective against some flus & some population are more or less susceptible (elderly, children), but 40-60% protection looks like a significant benefit.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm

niceguy
Reply to  Scissor
March 14, 2020 10:11 pm

Actually, both flu vaccination and Tamiflu present risks that may overwhelm, by very far, the very small benefit they would provide.

Like hep B, the flu is often an immunological danger. Being vaccinated against one flu appears to worsen the immunological problem with another flu.

Covid-19 also appears to be an immunological danger in healthy middle age people.

Of course, the immunological risk is always denied and only perfect proof (which does not and cannot exist) of it would be accepted as evidence of vaccine danger by the provax crowd, while small and non scientific “evidence” of usefulness of the vaccine is promoted hysterically.

The Big Pharma shilling press presents both vaccination and Tamiflu as safe, but neither are.

niceguy
Reply to  niceguy
March 15, 2020 3:36 am

“CDC uses mathematical modeling … These figures are then used to assess the burden of illness averted by flu vaccines”

LOL

The flu vaccine, like almost all vaccines, almost by definition, was NEVER TESTED like normal drugs are, and there is no evidence what so ever that it does any good, and lots of evidence it does no good.

It’s well known that the flu vaccine quite often cause a “flu” of one week: recently vaccinated people are sick for one week. The standard excuse is that the (normal, common) flu vaccine does not contain the disease and doesn’t cause it, so vaccinated people are never contagious (unlike with measles and other vaccines). That’s a relief! Still people feel like they have the flu.

Anyway it is not possible to determine that someone died “from” the flu. The correct description would that someone died with the flu.

Likewise, we don’t say that vaccinated people died from the vaccine. By the provax logic, we should say that!

That a vaccine protects other people is also doubtful and based on wishful thinking, not evidence.

Tamiflu has been shown to cause trivial, non individually measure decrease of hospitalisation time on average, and is linked with significantly increase flu death (and often hallucinations).

If you have one study that contains evidence of the usefulness of either, can you link to it?

Reply to  niceguy
March 15, 2020 6:23 am

There was some early speculation that a Chinese vaccination program caused enhanced vulnerability to the Wuhan Flu.

In a year or two our understanding will be much better.

Darrin
Reply to  niceguy
March 15, 2020 9:00 am

Willis,

No citation but month or so ago I was watching the news and they were discussing a new study out that says benefits of Tamiflu are non-existent to minimal. Doctor they were discussing this with recommended taking Tamiflu anyway. With only one new study saying this and no time by the medical community to digest the results I would have to agree taking Tamiflu would be the right thing to do.

niceguy
Reply to  niceguy
March 15, 2020 2:53 pm

“Being vaccinated against one flu appears to worsen the immunological problem with another flu.”

Now I wonder. Why was the “pandemic” H1N1 (apparently?) so bad in the US, when it flopped in Europe and elsewhere?

Would that be because Americans have so much “healthcare” (dangerous drugs esp. vaccines) that the flu triggered some very bad reactions?

Are Americans made more ill by their uber expensive healthcare?

Bruser
Reply to  niceguy
March 15, 2020 7:30 pm

The Cochrane Review is the gold standard for reviewing the efficacy of medications. Their report on Tamifly and Relenza is telling, and suggests they were ‘sold a pup’ by the manufacturers. Quote:
“Since 2002, governments around the world have spent billions of dollars stockpiling neuraminidase inhibitors (NIs) such as Tamiflu® (oseltamivir) and Relenza® (zanamivir) in anticipation of an influenza pandemic. … However, the original evidence presented to government agencies around the world was incomplete, raising questions about the accuracy of these claims and the efficacy of both preparations. … The review confirms small benefits on symptom relief, namely shortening duration of symptoms by half a day on average. However, there is little evidence to support any belief that use of NIs reduces hospital admission or the risk of developing confirmed pneumonia. The evidence also suggests that there are insufficient grounds to support the use of NIs in preventing the person-to-person spread of influenza. … Dr David Tovey, Editor-in-Chief of The Cochrane Library, commenting on the release of the updated Cochrane Review, said: “We now have the most robust, comprehensive review on neuraminidase inhibitors that exists. Initially thought to reduce hospitalisations and serious complications from influenza, the review highlights that [NIs are] not proven to do this, and it also seems to lead to harmful effects that were not fully reported in the original publications. This shows the importance of ensuring that trial data are transparent and accessible.””
https://www.cochrane.org/news/tamiflu-and-relenza-getting-full-evidence-picture

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  niceguy
March 16, 2020 4:07 am

Those drugs are not vaccines.
They are antivirals.

niceguy
Reply to  niceguy
March 16, 2020 9:05 am

“Those drugs are not vaccines.”

Relevance?

Editor
Reply to  Ferd III
March 14, 2020 12:41 pm

Ferd

I did some research in to UK flu deaths previously and was astonished that the numbers equates to 100 deaths a day during the 2017 flu season and 186 a day during the 2014 season.

Like you I am amazed that our newspapers have not been mentioning this virus at all but have become hysterical about the covid 18 virus. They both kill the most vulnerable, but to date the common version is much the worse. lets hope that remains the case.

tonyb

Steven Mosher
Reply to  tonyb
March 14, 2020 6:54 pm

“Like you I am amazed that our newspapers have not been mentioning this virus at all but have become hysterical about the covid 18 virus. They both kill the most vulnerable, but to date the common version is much the worse. lets hope that remains the case.”

FORGET COMPARING THIS TO THE FLU.

tony. its not about the death rate.
Your country has decided to “use” herd immunity as a defense.
Typically herd immunity is the result you GET when your prevention system fails.
But it seems the UK thinks it can “engineer” this thing

66 Million people

To achieve herd immunity, since covid has an R0 of ~3.5 you need 70% of the nation
infected. That’s basic math.

So with a goal of herd immunity to achieve that you NEED
46 Million Infected
with 46 Million infected ( and survived) then community transmission will stop
and you get Mr Gomperzt and not mr exponential. basically herd immunity always
puts an end to mr exponential.

So, 46 Million
The critical case rate ( needs ICU) is ~ 5%
The severe case rate ( Needs a hospital bed) ~10%

lets just say thats 5 Million needing a bed of some sort of hospital bed
A bed that will not be available for you.

It’s not the death rate that is your problem, that will only be 3 million or so.
you can stack the dead high.

it will be managing the load at hospitals

Toto
Reply to  Steven Mosher
March 16, 2020 5:45 pm

herd immunity… easier to build that if you have a vaccine. If you wait for mother nature to do it, it could take a long time, and mother nature does not care about you or your herd.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

Theoretically, maybe, but in actual practice, whoever manages the herd commonly opts for culling instead. Just get rid of the infectious animals, and if that is too much bother, just get rid of the whole herd. Call it a solution. When used on humans it has been called a “final solution”.

But if you do wait for nature to build that immunity, be prepared to wait a long time.
As an example, Seastar Wasting Disease. A few years ago, all the sea stars from Alaska to Baja died. Maybe a few survived, but “all” is pretty close for some species. They still don’t know what caused it and they have not recovered much at all.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/01/shocking-undersea-plague-obliterating-key-ocean-species
(It blames it on climate change)

Build herd immunity? Good luck with that. I think there are a whole bunch of issues we are still hoping for a miracle on. MRSP. C.Diff. VRE. CRE. CRKP. Necrotizing fasciitis… flu.

DocSiders
Reply to  tonyb
March 14, 2020 7:58 pm

The “most vulnerable” (elderly with predisposing conditions) are the most vulnerable for EVERY disease…and for death by all causes.

Virus epidemics end ONLY after enough of the population develops immunity BY HAVING THE DISEASE. So we NEED the hearty and the young to get the disease…and therefore immunity…WHILE SEQUESTERING most of our vulnerable elderly who would clog up the system.

In this case, the rate of spread must be slowed down so that the entire healthcare system isn’t overwhelmed as happened in some cities in Italy where large numbers of elderly WERE NOT SEQUESTERED since they didn’t know they had a problem until too late (and where the elderly were over 25% of local populations).

We are not likely to see that happen here on any large scale…just in a few pockets…where others can come to the rescue.

In the mean time don’t freak out when infection numbers hit over 10 million cases (actual milder infections will be multiples higher)…BECAUSE THAT MUST HAPPEN to get so called “herd immunity”. That’s how we win…gain enough herd immunity to really slow things down… then a vaccine in ~12-18 months will finish it off.

Paul
Reply to  tonyb
March 15, 2020 8:34 am

It is all political; to harm Trump re-election prospects.

Eric Eikenberry
Reply to  tonyb
March 16, 2020 10:51 am

COVID-19 is up to 92 deaths per day and climbing since Jan 1, 2020, on only 178,508 cases, as of 10:30 AM on March 16th, 2020. That’s a death rate of 3.94% worldwide, for those who like math. Total new cases on Sunday March 15, 2020 were over 10,000 worldwide. The issues the timeframe. We lack the manpower and resources to combat this all at once. The R0 is just too high for a bug with four bonding proteins on the outside of it. Quarantine. It works. Herd immunity is just group-assisted suicide for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. That’s the facts of the matter.

Old orange
Reply to  Eric Eikenberry
March 25, 2020 9:09 pm

Im not sure I understand when someone says quarantine will prevent death. Maybe this is only a fact if the number of those with severe acute reactions can’t get proper sufficient care, i.e. O2 or one of the country’s 65,000 ventilators, when they need it. Are you saying that the world mortality statistics from CV is all attributed to a lack of medical care? Flattening the curve just means you’ll get CV next year and die instead of this year if that cancer or copd hasn’t killed you first.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300972

james fosser
Reply to  Ferd III
March 15, 2020 2:33 pm
Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  james fosser
March 15, 2020 5:47 pm

“The regression convergence may fail for a pure initial guess or small data set. Therefore the method does not apply to the early stages of an epidemic…”
This is of course the very early stage of the pandemic, and data are awful.
No one has any idea of total cases.

Adam Gallon
Reply to  Earthling2
March 14, 2020 2:13 am

It’s called COVID 19.

Phoenix44
Reply to  Adam Gallon
March 14, 2020 3:05 am

No it’s not, that’s a shortened version of its scientific designation.

Believe it or not, Spanish flu has one of those too.

AngryScotonFraggleRock
Reply to  Adam Gallon
March 14, 2020 3:18 am

No, the Wuhan Virus imparts a reaction named COVID 19

jim hogg
Reply to  Adam Gallon
March 14, 2020 4:58 am

Covid 19 is the name of the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, the virus.

Robert W. Turner
Reply to  jim hogg
March 14, 2020 9:36 am

I prefer to call it what we have always called it – a bad cold.

Javert Chip
Reply to  Robert W. Turner
March 14, 2020 4:04 pm

One of the benefits of an education is to increase understanding and differentiation among various risks.

Calling everything a cold & behaving accordingly is generally behavior associated with the shallow end of the gene pool.

Robert W. Turner
Reply to  Robert W. Turner
March 14, 2020 9:14 pm

I would bet that the death rate actually decreases this weekend due to more people staying home. But acting like Chicken Little is the norm among the coddled.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Robert W. Turner
March 16, 2020 4:01 am

How many emergency room doctors have you known to have been put on life support due to an infection acquired from a patient with a bad cold?

Non Nomen
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
March 16, 2020 4:07 am

“How many emergency room doctors have you known to have been put on life support due to an infection acquired from a patient with a bad cold?”

My questions: How many are there, how many do you know? How many were there during the SARS incident?

niceguy
Reply to  Robert W. Turner
March 16, 2020 9:41 am

“How many emergency room doctors have you known”

You wrote that anyone who has not invented a vaccine has no business commenting on vaccines, so show your ER experience or shut up and go away, NPC.

David A
Reply to  Adam Gallon
March 14, 2020 5:55 am

Most people still call it the Coronavirus.

Two factors primarily affect the length of the steep rise middle portion of the Gompertz curve.

1. The middle portion is shortened by strong travel bands and effective quarantines.
2. It is lengthened by letting the virus burn through its fuel supply; which is you, me and everyone we know.

China’s numbers are FUBAR. They likely shortened the middle portion by massive poorly done quarantines that effectively raised the RO. Placing “potentially exposed” in group quarantine of thousands of beds with zero walls and or common air supply and group restrooms, and it locking in elderly resthomes and prisions, is democide, death by government. They accelerated the virus feed through some populations while separating others in real quarantine.

China shortened the time portion of the middle curve, buried the bodies, and destroyed the records. As China allowed zero observation, their credibility is gone, and the many hundreds of leaks and videos are valid evidence.

RobR
Reply to  David A
March 14, 2020 6:36 am

Agreed. The nexus of the outbreak in Iran corresponds to aftermath of the Soleimani killing.

One possibility: Iran requested immediate military technology assistance from China in a bid to even the score.

The Korean curve must be taken with a large grain of salt, as testing yielded a large number of false positives.

Steven Mosher
Reply to  RobR
March 14, 2020 7:02 pm

“The Korean curve must be taken with a large grain of salt, as testing yielded a large number of false positives.”

Err NO.

99% of those tested, tested negative. Testing here in Korea involves more than a single
simple PCR test

tty
Reply to  David A
March 14, 2020 6:37 am

“massive poorly done quarantines ”

Got any good ideas about what a “well done quarantine” would look like?

Dr Deanster
Reply to  tty
March 14, 2020 8:10 am

It’s beginning to look like the USA.

Looking at % increase spread defined as New Cases/Total Cases.

From March 5-10th, the % increased from 8% to 21%. Over the last three days, the numbers are 16%, 22%, and 21%. If this holds it will flatten out the slope of the curve as hoped and will lead to a much better outcome.

David A
Reply to  tty
March 14, 2020 5:05 pm

Seperate rooms, seperate air supply, private restrooms.

Not a convention center with 7 k beds, no walls, group restrooms. Not tiny room high rise apartments with common air circulation and everybody locked in, not elderly care single room living conditions.

Basically not a Crusoe ship or worse on land.

David 6
Reply to  tty
March 14, 2020 5:18 pm

Tty, of course, seperate rooms, seperate air, private bathrooms.

Not convention centers with thousands of beds with no walls, public restrooms. Not locked in elderly care facilities, high rise apartments that are like land locked cruise ships. Not prisions.

whiten
Reply to  tty
March 15, 2020 5:21 am

Concentration camps and gulags…
The Nazis considered their concentration camps as “well done quarantine” for what they considered as human vermin…

cheers

Ktm
Reply to  David A
March 14, 2020 9:26 am

Most people call it Coronavirus, but Coronavirus is a very common cause of the very common cold. We’ve all probably had Coronavirus multiple times before. Wuhan Coronavirus is a great descriptive name of this new one.

For those interested, go look at syndromictrends.com to see the seasonality and percentage of folks who have regular Coronavirus when they are being tested for the Flu. It even splits it up into a few different flavors of regular Coronavirus if you want to see that. it does NOT include Wuhan Coronavirus yet, since the test does not detect it, yet.

Steven Mosher
Reply to  David A
March 14, 2020 6:59 pm

“China’s numbers are FUBAR. They likely shortened the middle portion by massive poorly done quarantines that effectively raised the RO. Placing “potentially exposed” in group quarantine of thousands of beds with zero walls and or common air supply and group restrooms, and it locking in elderly resthomes and prisions, is democide, death by government. ”

Thats not what they did.

1. China has fever clinics all over the place.
2. If you had symptoms you had to go to fever clinic.
3. test for pnuenomia, and flu. IF Negative
A) white blood cell count,
B) CT scan. They have mobile units takes minutes, IF Positive
C) PCR test, If Positive
D) Quarantined and separated from your family.
Basically 80% of transmission was inside families. So they did NOT do quarantine
at Home.

Mark Luhman
Reply to  Steven Mosher
March 15, 2020 12:30 am

Steve God I hate to admit it you are right in this case. Yes China it is a economic power house yet in many ways it still a third world country.

David A
Reply to  Steven Mosher
March 15, 2020 5:59 am

Mosher you are wrong, China officialy did 4 quarantines. Definitely infected. Symptoms only, not tested. And potentially exposed. Four was general lock down.

The potentially infected was the big problem. Someone from your high rise apartment tested positive, you and everybody living there stay inside. Sometimes locked in.
Military enforced.

Convention centers full of mixed, potential and symptomatic, large halls of one million sq feet, rows of beds, zero walls, common restrooms. Those prefab hospitals, likely common air to all rooms.
Prisions. Elderly care facilities, quarantined.

Were you there Mosher?
Were any observers allowed?
Nope, just their military.
CCP credibility is zero.
Credibility of thousands of leaks, all risking arrest, and thousands of reports from Chinese citizens – considerable.

David A
Reply to  Steven Mosher
March 15, 2020 12:42 pm

Steven, let’s take your list one at a time…

“China has fever clinics all over the place.
2. If you had symptoms you had to go to fever clinic.”

Ok Steven, so take a large mass of people with a flu, some with just inflammation – bacteria, some with a common cold under 101,. Some with the Cov19 virus, Stick them all together in large rooms with common restrooms, Great! They are in quarantine. It’s called democide.

‘B) CT scan. They have mobile units takes minutes, IF Positive”.
Yep, late in the game however… February 22 I think, was a 8 day backlog jump to 15 k infected. Three days later they stopped recording these. BTW, has any nation instituted the pneumonia pathology test and recoded those cases as positive Cov19? ( Nope)

“C) PCR test, If Positive
D) Quarantined and separated from your family.”
Great, yet to where? Worldmeter starts on January 22. Hospitals in Wuhan were already overrun. City lockdown on January 23rd. Viral spread began in early December, if not late November.
Let’s call it mid December. By February 15th the case rate rise was slowing dramatically. Call it two months. Countless tales from doctors and patients about the great shortage of tests, triage to the hospitals, 1700 dead medical workers, endless patients not admitted so going home to live or die…

Spain, France , Iran, especially Italy, have only been active on the curve for less then one month, less then 50 percent of the time of China. Yet Currently their total case load per million population is 3 times China. Italy is almost eight times the infection per million. All these nations have lower population density, and greater forewarning. All started defensive protocols earlier then China. All are earlier in the exponential portion of the curve. All have a greater – steeper exponential then China.

Even South Korea. Stopped travel early, extensive quarantine, hospitals LESS overwhelmed, has about 3 times the infection rate per million , about 1/2 way through the time period of China’s exponential! In all nations the exponential is steeper then China’s.

Steve says…
“Basically 80% of transmission was inside families. So they did NOT do quarantine
at Home.”

True, Not of infected, ( I never said they did) but of exposed they certainly did.
On second thought, you are wrong again.
There were many, countlesss infected who were sent home from triage due to overwhelmed hospitals. Many stories of elderly going home to die. There are
Videos of welding shut building access, because someone in the building tested positive. There are Countless stories from those there. Almost 20 converted or assembled very large GROUP quarantine stations, etc… As China REFUSED observation of their four categories of quarantine, they lose ALL credibility. The witness survivors do not. They lived a night mare.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-funeral-house-director-hospitals-sent-bodies-marked-unidentified-pneumonia_3264598.html

https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-authorities-require-government-offices-to-destroy-data-related-to-coronavirus-outbreak_3257797.html

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-china-continues-to-hide-real-coronavirus-epidemic-figures-still-new-exposure-by-cai-xin-global-online-media

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/must-read-more-cases-being-reported-in-china-of-recovered-covid-19-patients-dying-suddenly

I do not have it with me now, but there is a peer reviewed report, based on the observations of spread to the world, that Wuhan had at least 75k infected when they claimed only 775.

Steven Mosher
Reply to  Steven Mosher
March 16, 2020 12:12 am

David

‘Were you there Mosher?
Were any observers allowed?
Nope, just their military.
CCP credibility is zero.
Credibility of thousands of leaks, all risking arrest, and thousands of reports from Chinese citizens – considerable”

yes I was in beijing.
Were you there?
WHO observers document the proceedure I described.
All the people I work with, we talk daily, describe the same proceedure.

Were you there?
have you talked to anyone who IS THERE NOW?

You saw shit on Infowars

Robert of Texas
Reply to  Adam Gallon
March 14, 2020 6:46 am

COVID 19 refers to the disease, not the virus. The virus is SARS-CoV-2.

A Virus can be named after the location it is first detected, so the virus could have been named “Wuhan coronavirus”, except today we live in a hyper-sensitive world where everyone takes exception to everything. Example: “Zaire ebolavirus”

It is not racist to name a virus after the location where it is first detected, it’s just a practice (now a forbidden practice apparently). Regardless of the name, it still has a location where it was first detected and all the political correctness in the world will not change that.

Scissor
Reply to  Robert of Texas
March 14, 2020 7:10 am

Even the CDC gets that wrong (calling the disease the virus) on public service announcements they’ve made.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Robert of Texas
March 14, 2020 8:01 am

Naming is done because it creates an easy reference to distinguish what one is talking about. This is the reason to name hurricanes. Everyone remembers Katrina and what happened with it. Years later we all know and can still recall based on that name. No one would remember Tropical System 11- 2005.

Bob boder
Reply to  Tom in Florida
March 14, 2020 9:06 am

Exactly by calling it Wuhan virus 20-30 years or more from people will be able to associate it with the events. COVID 19 won’t have the same affect.

James R Clarke
Reply to  Tom in Florida
March 14, 2020 11:48 am

Yes. It is why we name hurricanes.

noaaprogrammer
Reply to  Tom in Florida
March 14, 2020 6:33 pm

As a young married woman in her mid-twenties when hurricane Katrina landed, my daughter, (also named Katrina), was very upset that the hurricane and she shared the same name.

Even though the name Katrina is of Germanic origin, apparently political correctness does not extend to the naming of hurricanes with names of ethnic origins.

Now to be more inclusive, instead of just male and female names, are there any personal names yet which are indicative of the multitude of different sexual orientations?

M Courtney
Reply to  Robert of Texas
March 14, 2020 11:13 am

It is a forbidden practice because naming a disease after an area is dangerous.

It provides an incentive for the area to keep quiet about it and hope it gets named after the next area to fall stricken.

It’s not PC to forbid naming a virus after an area.
It’s commons sense to avoid incentivising risky practice.
Ignoring the early spread of viruses is very risky.

Javert Chip
Reply to  M Courtney
March 14, 2020 4:08 pm

M Courtney

BS

Loydo
Reply to  Earthling2
March 14, 2020 2:20 am

“The Spanish Flu epidemic didn’t really start in Spain either”

Covid19 didn’t start in the US but with the ongoing testing debacle and Trump’s crazy downplaying of the threat because he thought it might hurt him electorally, who knows, history might come to know it as the American Virus given the number it will infect.

jtom
Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 3:51 am

American virus? Only by idiots and paid Chinese trolls.

Loydo
Reply to  jtom
March 14, 2020 4:06 am

Vietnam first country to ban Americans bringing in their virus. Wont be the last.

rbabcock
Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 7:02 am

Interesting. Are they letting in the Chinese?

rah
Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 10:43 am

The Vietnamese hate the Chinese. They’ve been in an undeclared war on and off for decades. The only reason you don’t hear about it is because the Vietnamese keep handing the Chinese their heads.

Robertvd
Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 1:49 pm

The Irish hate the English. The Dutch hate the Germans. Feminists hate men, believers in man made global warming hate deniers, democrats hate Trump etc

Buckeyebob
Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 4:43 am

I can go to Facebook for idiotic comments like this. I expect better than that here on WUWT

John Adams
Reply to  Buckeyebob
March 14, 2020 10:40 am

+10

Loydo
Reply to  Buckeyebob
March 14, 2020 12:54 pm

The US’s response to Covid 19 is a complete shambles, a debacle from the top down, far, far worse than Italy. It wont seem so idiotic in a months time when victims are dying in the corridors of overwhelmed ICUs as they are in Italy.

In Ohio alone:
“More than 100,000 people are believed to be infected with the coronavirus in the state — about one percent of its population, health officials in the state said Friday.

“This is certainly an unprecedented time … we’ve never seen a situation exactly like this,” said Dr. Amy Acton, director of the State Health Department, at a news conference Thursday.
https://nypost.com

Trump: “hoax”, “it’s like the flu”, “it’ll magically go away”, “testing is going great”.
Only 11,000 Americans have been tested.

Disinformed American exceptionalists are in for a very nasty surprise from the combination of a corrupted health system, a nacrisistic sociopath for a leader and a deadly virus that doesn’t discriminate.

John Finn
Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 1:24 pm

You are right. The US, though was wrong-footed because of the flawed test kits.

The CDC had tried to be a bit too clever when with the manufacture of the kits. They developed a multi-test kit to test for a number of infections as well as CovID-19. Good idea – if they worked but they didn’t.

I’m not from the US but I actually like Trump. Unfortunately I think he could suffer badly in the 2020 election as the fallout from this becomes clear.

holly elizabeth Birtwistle
Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 2:07 pm

Loydo,
You are going to be disappointed when your resentful predictions don’t come true.
The truth is, the World is looking to America and President Trump for guidance on what to do next with Covid 19, and will be increasingly on how to survive economically as well.
In Canada, our State media, the CBC, who are big Trump haters, are now turning to President Trump for guidance. Even calling him President, instead of their usual “Trump” or “Donald Trump”. History is going to be very kind to President Trump, because he is a true Constitutionalist, a true ‘Man of the People’, and a tremendous force for good in the world.

Loydo
Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 2:55 pm

If my predictions don’t come true I will be greatly relieved and happy for the American people. Looking for guidance like his direct quotes above? You’ve got to be joking.

Here is another prediction: managing the US outbreak is being botched so badly that most other western countries will include Americans on their banned lists within 2 weeks.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 9:12 pm

The US already warned people not to travel overseas weeks ago.
We were the first to restrict travel to the US from a long list of countries that is growing every day as new info comes in.
The EU is all in a snit over them being banned from coming here, so it is laughable for you to suggest that Trump bungled the response and other countries will ban us, as if anyone here cares.
Why don’t you stop with the bullshit Lloydo, you hateful prick!?
People are lsing money, losing jobs, losing lives, and you spouting off about political lies with you head jammed straight up your loose @44hole.
So STFU, OK?
No one wants to hear your incessant disinformation at a time like this.
Do you ever have one single thing to do in your life which is in any way positive or can help anyone…EVER?
Because now might be a good time to take stock of what a completely useless sack of monkey turds you are, and just make a decision to stop it.

Karl Hungus
Reply to  Loydo
March 15, 2020 8:27 am

“If my predictions don’t come true I will be greatly relieved—”

No, you won’t.

Loydo
Reply to  Loydo
March 15, 2020 12:39 pm

mod is personal abuse and name calling accecptable these days?

Steven Mosher
Reply to  Loydo
March 20, 2020 1:38 am

“We were the first to restrict travel to the US from a long list of countries that is growing every day as new info comes in.”

Singapore actually probably beat the USA to the punch in IMPLEMENTING an effective ban.

Cube
Reply to  Buckeyebob
March 14, 2020 3:20 pm

Don’t expect better from Loydo.

GregK
Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 4:53 am

The Spanish flu may have originated in France, the US [Kansas] or even China but not Spain.

Wartime press restrictions prevented UK, French or US papers from reporting it but no such restrictions applied in Spain. Newspapers published reports of its “progress” in Madrid hence it became known as Spanish flu.

Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 4:56 am

Trump’s responses are based on his task force – Trump doesn’t pretend to be an expert himself. Most criticisms of Trump are pure political nonsense. It is the task of any leader to
try to subdue the ridiculously exaggerated hysteria over this virus, which occurs mostly from Trump haters like yourself. Telling people to calm down and think rather than emoting is the best advice. Incited hysteria accomplishes nothing – take a look at the global warming hysteria, were people are frightenned without anyclear idea of what thye should be afraid of. The crooked MSM, which can be considered the propaganda division of the Democratic Party, has not only exaggerated the dangers of global warming, but has proposed solutions which are ridiculously expensive garbage. These morons acctually reject (or are unaware of) the obvious future power technology of molten ssalt small modular reactors, an old technology made practical by new materials and, mostly, clever engineering. The cost of a transition is a small percentage of the projected costs coming from the ignorant estimators who look to useless wind power and impractical solar power.

Non Nomen
Reply to  ColMosby
March 14, 2020 5:34 am

+100
Couldn’t agree more.

AngryScotonFraggleRock
Reply to  ColMosby
March 14, 2020 5:53 am

👍 x100

Aeronomer
Reply to  ColMosby
March 14, 2020 6:29 am

Yeah, except OrangeManBad.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  ColMosby
March 14, 2020 6:42 am

“Trump’s responses are based on his task force – Trump doesn’t pretend to be an expert himself. Most criticisms of Trump are pure political nonsense. It is the task of any leader to
try to subdue the ridiculously exaggerated hysteria over this virus, which occurs mostly from Trump haters like yourself. Telling people to calm down and think rather than emoting is the best advice. Incited hysteria accomplishes nothing”

The Leftwing Media are hyping this Wuhan virus situation as much as they can. It’s pure fearmongering. It’s why some people are going into a panic. It’s the worst kind of reporting when the nation is in a crisis. Instead of calming the situation, the Leftwing Media are exaserbating the situation.

Contrast today’s Leftwing Media coverage of the Wuhan virus with their coverage of the H1N1 pandemic during the Obama-Biden administration, in 2009. Watching the coverage back then, you wouldn’t even know there was a problem. It was downplayed to the hilt and nobody was panicking even though H1N1 ended up infecting something like 60 million people and ended up killing over 12,000 Americans.

Obama and Biden waited so long to do anything about it that by the time they got organized it was already too late to prevent the infection from going out into the general public, so Obama didn’t need to place a travel ban on anyone because it was already too late, and obviously Obama and Biden didn’t get the federal agencies responsible geared up for mass testing of epedimic outbreaks because it was already too late to stop the infection.

Now the Leftwing Media wants to blame Trump for the federal government not being geared up for mass testing. Trump shouldn’t be criticized for having a problem crop up during this crisis, he should only be criticized over how he handles a problem after it is discovered, and going from yesterday’s news conference, it looks like Trump is getting things well in hand. Not that this will stop the Leftwing Media from their constant criticism and fearmongering.

The Leftwing Media are the Enemies of the American People. Their constitutional job is to provide accurate information to the American people so the American people can make the proper decisions about how to govern themselves and how to protect themselves, but the Leftwing Media has turned into a propaganda organ for the radical Democrat party and none of what they say can be trusted to be the truth. They are harming this nation with their constant politically-motivated lies. They are the Domestic Enemies the U.S. Constitution talks about.

DataDriven
Reply to  Tom Abbott
March 14, 2020 1:52 pm

Let’s be frank, H1N1 had a kill rate of 0.02% while COVID19 looks to be roughly 100x that. The MSM is biased but I’m not convinced it’s appropriate for Rush Limbaugh and others to compare H1N1 response to that of COVID19.

Phil.
Reply to  Tom Abbott
March 14, 2020 6:03 pm

Tom Abbott March 14, 2020 at 6:42 am

Contrast today’s Leftwing Media coverage of the Wuhan virus with their coverage of the H1N1 pandemic during the Obama-Biden administration, in 2009. Watching the coverage back then, you wouldn’t even know there was a problem. It was downplayed to the hilt and nobody was panicking even though H1N1 ended up infecting something like 60 million people and ended up killing over 12,000 Americans.

Obama and Biden waited so long to do anything about it that by the time they got organized it was already too late to prevent the infection from going out into the general public, so Obama didn’t need to place a travel ban on anyone because it was already too late, and obviously Obama and Biden didn’t get the federal agencies responsible geared up for mass testing of epedimic outbreaks because it was already too late to stop the infection.

Where do you get this junk from, Fox News?
The H1N1 was detected in the US by April 12 2009, Obama’s Director of Health and Human Services declared H1N1 a public health emergency on April 26 at which time there had been 20 cases confirmed in the US and no deaths. Two days later the administration made a fuding request to congress which resulted in over $7 billion allocated for vaccine etc. H1N1 was eventually declared a pandemic on June 11.

DataDriven
Reply to  Tom Abbott
March 14, 2020 9:34 pm

I have no axe to grind here.
I agree that there are certainly unrecorded cases.
That said, South Korea is testing extremely aggressively and it’s widely reported that their tests are producing “a lot” of false positives.
If there were, say, one unreported case floating around Korea for every reported one, one would expect continuous outbreaks around such carriers.
Also, while only 72 people have died in SK, only 550 people have “recovered” so how certain can we be about the death rate?
The CDC published this https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_article, reporting that in China even outside Hubei Province fatality rate is 1%.
Maybe I’m comparing apples and oranges but given that SARS killed 10% of it’s victims, I think COVID 19 will kill at orders of magnitudes more efficiency than H1N1’s 0.02%.
What is your fatality rate estimate?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Abbott
March 15, 2020 5:53 am

“Where do you get this junk from, Fox News?
The H1N1 was detected in the US by April 12 2009, Obama’s Director of Health and Human Services declared H1N1 a public health emergency on April 26 at which time there had been 20 cases confirmed in the US and no deaths. Two days later the administration made a fuding request to congress which resulted in over $7 billion allocated for vaccine etc. H1N1 was eventually declared a pandemic on June 11.”

I don’t recall any mass testing going on back then by the Obama-Biden administration. I don’t recall schools and stores shut down during that time period. How do you explain that? How do you explain that Obama-Biden allowed 60 million people to be infected and over 12,000 of them die if Obama and Biden were right on top of the situation from the beginning?

They showed a clip last night (on Hannity) of Biden wringing his hands over the H1N1 virus and then the next day the White House press secretary was walking Biden’s words back and saying everyone should calm down and that was just Joe being Joe.

So, according to you, Obama and Biden knew right away that there was an H1N1 epidemic bubbling up and they did nothing to try to prevent Americans from being infected by H1N1. No testing, no quarantines, no nothing. They just stood there and allowed millions of people to be infected and over 12,000 of them to die. Yeah, they were right on top of things, weren’t they. Too bad they aren’t in charge now. Right?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Abbott
March 15, 2020 8:31 am

“They showed a clip last night (on Hannity) of Biden”

Correction: That video clip appeared on the Watter’s World show, not Hannity. The Water’s World show will do a repeat tonight on Fox, so you can watch it again.

Jesse probably doesn’t mind me mixing him up with Hannity, considering Hannity is the highest rated show on cable tv. Jesse kind of reminds me of Hannity, a calmer, gentler Hannity.

niceguy
Reply to  Tom Abbott
March 17, 2020 8:52 am

“H1N1 had a kill rate of 0.02%”

In the US or globally?
How do we know that?

In France we are told that the flu kills 10 000 per year, or 86 in a very bad year. I’m wondering if they are making up it as they go…

Scissor
Reply to  ColMosby
March 14, 2020 6:43 am

Joe Biden explains how he and his team would have handled it differently. The question/statement at ~3:09 min is priceless.

Javert Chip
Reply to  Scissor
March 14, 2020 4:46 pm

Scissor

In my humble opinion, that’s not a technical problem with the audio, that’s just the way Joe thinks.

Just one man’e opinion.

Nate
Reply to  ColMosby
March 14, 2020 6:49 am

Except he takes no responsibility for anything that goes wrong. He just finds someone to blame, the last President, somone in HIS adminstration, and then claim ignorance about it.

The opposite of what a leader does.

Then there is the problem that very little of what he says turns out to be accurate. Most people have learned to distrust what he says.

Not what we need from a President in a crisis

Bob boder
Reply to  Nate
March 14, 2020 9:12 am

Take blame for what? He acted right away and canceled travel from China and got hammered by the Media and progressives. Even when he called for a travel ban for Europe he is getting hammered, even though every professional is saying it’s the right thing to do. Who are the real “anti-science” people? The panic and over reaction are the real danger, remember “the only thing we have to fear is fear it self”, take prudent action and it will pass.

Buckeyebob
Reply to  Nate
March 14, 2020 9:19 am

Clinton. Waco. Pot. Kettle. Black.
Obama. Benghazi. Fast and Furious. Obamacare. Porkulus. H1N1. Pot. Kettle. Black.
Carter. Iran Hostage Crisis. Afganistan. Pot. Kettle. Black.

rah
Reply to  Nate
March 14, 2020 10:37 am

Everyone knows where the buck stops but the leftist press is dealing in trivia mostly in their TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome).

It is obvious that much of what is happening right now with this event is politically driven. Crisis and chaos always serve the purposes of the left and in their current state of TDS the left and their press continually overplay their hands. They’re so desperate to take Trump out and it is so obvious. Come election time it is really going to be interesting. I have already told my boss I’m taking vacation days on Nov. 3rd and 4th. I will be set up with popcorn and Jack Danials and coke to watch what transpires. I Love the sight of leftist “journalists” their various talking heads and their so called “experts” as they suffer the effects of the egotistical TDS inflated bubble they’ve been living in bursting.

Does that sound mean and angry? Well your right! It is! I wouldn’t stop to urinate on any of that bunch if I were walking down the sidewalk and saw one of them on fire. They’ve been waging war on the Constitution and the values that hold the fabric of this nation together for decades.

Writing Observer
Reply to  Nate
March 14, 2020 1:44 pm

Let us know when some poor schlub of an obscure YouTube video producer has an FBI SWAT team smash through his front door.

In the meantime, thanks for playing.

DocSiders
Reply to  Nate
March 14, 2020 8:24 pm

Totally out of line, the press asked Trump at a breifing if he was to blame for the botched first run of testing…and the later delays. He fought back truthfully by saying NO.

The problem stemmed from poor CDC planning NOT TRUMP’s FAULT…and from technical problems with the reagent used to perform the tests NOT TRUMP’s FAULT. Presidents don’t do the actual test prep or design protocols (dumb ass press corp).

Only an ass would blame Trump for Govt. Agency incompetence. And the MSM are all asses…along with those dwindling numbers of asses who still believe them.

Trump is FULLY AWARE that the Government cannot be counted on to do their jobs well. But he cannot “stomp” on the incompetent bureaucrats right now. It Is the CDC’s job to be prepared for public health emergencies like this one…they should have been better prepared.

c_heale
Reply to  Nate
March 14, 2020 8:35 pm

Couldn’t agree more. Never seen such a narcissist. “It’s not my responsibility”. Yes, it damn well is. Who cut the pandemic team. Trump.

America needs a giant in the Whitehouse, and it has a midget.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Nate
March 15, 2020 5:15 am

“I Love the sight of leftist “journalists” their various talking heads and their so called “experts” as they suffer the effects of the egotistical TDS inflated bubble they’ve been living in bursting.”

Yes, that was delicious watching the leftist crybabies whining over Hillary’s loss in 2016, and I too, look forward to seeing them do it again in 2020.

niceguy
Reply to  Nate
March 15, 2020 4:38 pm

Haters, “never Trumpers” and the “resistance” people have been sabotaging President Trump from before day 1 of his presidency.

He had to fight judges who made up stuff, wrote rulings that made sense only if “dangerous countries” meant “dangerous land masses” (and not countries with gangs, no rule of law, no functioning gov), he was abused, he was attacked for doing what other Presidents did (without legal opposition), lawyers admitted that they would have blessed the exact same Executive Orders from other Presidents that they denied were legal “because Trump”, he was spied on, his campaign was infiltrated, the “Intelligence Community” (actually a bunch of Chris Hayes clones, but still) started a civil war against him, the “free press” made up a “right to have top level clearance” for these “former intelligence” anti Trump (actually more like Chris Hayes clones), he was “impeached” on a patently illegal basis with a claim of abuse of power and violation of Congress rights by Pelosi who herself started the impeachment illegally, abused her power and violated the right and processes of the Senate and the Constitution (so she is actually guilty of exactly all of what she accused President Trump of), he is still attacked by Congress committees that try to get his taxes, under patently dishonest pretexts, which is the most obvious case of abuse of power that can be, and these people are the one accusing him of abuse of power, and I could go on and on…

You have been nullifying the election since before the vote. You have been making Trump a President in Name Only who should submit to the “rule of law”, which is codename for whatever the latest demented fad of an interpretation of the stuff that pretends to be “the Law” in the US (*), valid EO have been blocked, lawless “judges” have been making up laws and effectively rewritten the Constitution, two SCOTUS judges have attacked President Trump without any criticism from the left…

(*) which from my POV looks mostly like over heated cheese, it can melt and take any shape… like “obstruction of justice” which can basically mean anything, probably even complaining to a cop that you are innocent and that investigating you is a waste of time, when you are innocent and investigating you is a waste of time

“Lawyers” (aka crackpots) have insinuated that Trump making fun of fake news outlets was illegal, an attack on free speech or God knows what and that those who helped him could be prosecuted. These people worried more about a fake funny prize than about the FBI literally making up evidence to justify the spying on people related to (firstly candidate, then President) Trump.

Nowadays when I find a patently absurd pretend legal argument “argument” on Twitter, that’s more like the result of someone who binged watched law TV series in random order of DVD chapters while taking crack, it’s more often from a blue check account from a “former federal prosecutor” than from a random Internet crackpot. Unless there is a massive number of fake former JAG/former DOJ prosecutors on Twitter, that’s terrifying. (I’m a categorically NOT a lawyer, but I can see what’s definitely not a sound law based argument.)

It’s one thing to have some bad faith attacks against your political opponent, but the way the anti Trump people have been siding with the narrated Russia (whether real Putin and Russia wanted any of that isn’t relevant here) described as the enemy of the US, according to the real testimony of anti Russia and anti Trump hero Fiona Hill (they can’t disown her, can they?) (though I have that feeling Hill might be a Russian agent)

“Putin, sadly, has got all of our political class, every single one of us, including the media, exactly where he wants us.”

and sided with China at all points, from before the inauguration to the “trade war” (it’s a WAR, it’s literally written in it) to the Wuhan virus crisis…

So sorry now “President” Trump can disown EVERYTHING. I don’t care what excuse he gives, it’s axiomatically valid for me. You can’t acclaim the “Resistance” (an insult to the French Résistance during WWII, by the way), you can’t say that “firing” (not even firing, moving) anti Trump people in the admin is an abuse of power, you can’t complain about the President “interfering” in the administration of the federal police or federal justice and then tell him to own anything in the admin. He doesn’t, by your own axioms.

So you OWN President Trump DISOWNING bad stuff that happened.

Simon
Reply to  ColMosby
March 14, 2020 1:26 pm

It is the job of a leader to listen to his/her advisors…. he didn’t, he went with his “gut” feeling. He minimised the danger despite being told not to, so putting large numbers of innocent people at unneeded risk. All so he could keep the economy running/looking ok and so help his chances in the election. He is a corrupt imbecile but he is no leader. And the longer this goes on, the more this will be obvious.

John Dilks
Reply to  Simon
March 14, 2020 5:25 pm

Simon,
You need to find a way to curb your hate. You also need to pay attention to what is really said and ignore what the media says was said.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Simon
March 15, 2020 5:20 am

“It is the job of a leader to listen to his/her advisors…. he didn’t, he went with his “gut” feeling.”

Simon is just making stuff up. How does Simon know what Trump’s “gut feeling” was? I don’t think it is possible for Simon to know this. Perhaps Simon could explain.

I think it is called delusion, Simon. Probably, in this case, it is TDS delusion.

Simon
Reply to  Simon
March 16, 2020 1:56 am

Tom Abbott
“Simon is just making stuff up. How does Simon know what Trump’s “gut feeling” was? I don’t think it is possible for Simon to know this. Perhaps Simon could explain.”
Nope
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/05/812519679/trumps-gut-collides-with-science-on-coronavirus-messaging

BigT
Reply to  Simon
March 17, 2020 3:46 am

Um…

“ Well, I think the 3.4% is really a false number,” Trump told Sean Hannity on Fox News. “Now, this is just my hunch, and — but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, ”

tty
Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 6:39 am

Much more likely “the EU virus”

Check where infection is running wild.

George Daddis
Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 7:01 am

Loydo is not only a climate expert, but also a mind reader!

“… because he thought it might hurt him electorally.”

It is the height of ignorance to assign motives based purely on one’s prejudices.

Rich Davis
Reply to  George Daddis
March 14, 2020 9:26 am

There’s a platinum/iridium bar in Paris that serves as the standard meter. But when it comes to the height of ignorance, we always have Loydo.

Scissor
Reply to  Rich Davis
March 14, 2020 11:44 am

That would be a steaming pile of it.

AndyL
Reply to  Rich Davis
March 15, 2020 12:52 am

> There’s a platinum/iridium bar in Paris that serves as the standard meter.
That was changd long ago
The SI definition of a Kg was changed from teh weight of a lump of platinum iridium on 20 May last year.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Rich Davis
March 15, 2020 1:23 pm

Andy, You can change the definition of the kilogram or the meter, but the only competition for the height of ignorance would be griff.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  George Daddis
March 14, 2020 11:13 am

George
I’d say, rather, “the height of arrogance,”

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 11:07 am

Loydo
You claimed, “… Trump’s crazy downplaying of the threat because he thought it might hurt him electorally, …” You know this how? Are you clairvoyant? Do you have an ‘off mike’ recording?

FDR famously said, “We have nothing to fear but fear itself.” I’d be more inclined [since I don’t read minds] to attribute Trump’s response to an attempt to calm the Chicken Littles of the country because panic can be destructive.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
March 15, 2020 6:22 pm

It was exactly as you say, and more.
The experts standing next to him gave their assessments, and then the press asked Trump for his opinion or asked for answers to inane questions that seemed to pretend that they had not heard from those experts a minute prior.
Instead of questioning the experts, they asked Trump what the risk was for the average person.
Everyone knows the death rate of those infected is in the low single digits, so when Trump said “The average person will be fine”, he was being factual.
But by the the time the Trump haters had redigested and spun that statement and others like it, they had Trump saying he was not gonna do a damn thing because there was nothing for anyone to worry about.
I watched the press conferences, listened to every word, and then the reaction in the MSM.
They are lying fools who take things literally when they should not, and decide to intuit what someone else was thinking when what they actually said was not at all untrue or damning in the least.
Trump did more than anyone to restrict people travelling from other countries in teh initial stages of the outbreak in China, and was lambasted for it by the same people that are now saying he did not do enough.
At the time all they cared about was the impeachment.
Maybe if that was not going on, some more time and attention might have been given to this outbreak when it might do some good.
Anyone who thinks a President is personally responsible for how CDC officials react to an epidemic is just being an idiot.
Who thinks test kits can be waved into existence?
Who thinks the President can order testing be free? The same people are very fond of pointing out only congress is authorized to spend money.
European leaders get offended by Trump banning flights from there, then say, thinking they are being logical “A virus does not respect borders”, as if that means people should not be restricted or travel be discouraged or banned.
It means the opposite.
The truth is this die was likely cast over two months ago when Chinese officials decided to minimize what was happening, silence people speaking up about it, and even when they knew it was spreading rapidly, refused to let the CDC and the WHO into China during a critical time.
When they locked down Wuhan, the mayor of that city said as many as 4 million people fled the city…on foot? By roads or trains or air prior after it was announced but before it took effect?
Who knows, but you cannot keep people from walking or riding a bicycle out of a city that has no wall around it.
In fact by then all that was being affected was how soon it would reach other places, not if it would.
People fly into and out of China in large numbers every day, and the virus was spreading around the city of Wuhan as early as the beginning of December and very likely earlier than that.
If it did come from an animal in that market, the animal was almost surely caught somewhere else and transported there, so at least one or a few people were exposed at that time in that other place and was spreading it.
Anyone can read anything about epidemiology written as many years ago as one cares to choose, and see what it says about containment: The first few days and the index patient are critical. The very early stage, days to a week or two at most, are the only time it is possible to contain an outbreak of a highly contagious disease. And only then if every contact can be traced and isolated, or if it is some remote location or some person who has no contacts or travels.
In a city where a virus was spreading widely for many weeks, there are 11 million residents, and flights, traffic, and trains, in and out every day, and some of those flights are international…there is no chance of containing a new disease.
This was a done deal before anyone knew anything about it.
It is only arguing about the details now.
People who are pointing fingers are themselves out spreading the virus to others.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
March 15, 2020 9:34 pm

Nicholas
+1

jackie hamrick
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
March 16, 2020 9:02 pm

+ 100

Simon
Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 11:26 am

Interesting fact: The Spanish flu was called that because although the Germans and British were dying, in their thousands they refused to acknowledge it (because of the war) and
Spain, who were neutral, were telling the truth about their death numbers… so it got called the Spanish flu (because it was perceived wrongly, they were carrying the bulk of the infection).

Non Nomen
Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 3:58 pm

There is no *real* threat. Look at the ridiculously small numbers compared to MRSA!

Javert Chip
Reply to  Loydo
March 14, 2020 4:16 pm

Loydol

You’re obviously an educated and discriminating commentator, so of course you can explain why Obama waited until after 1,000 American deaths from swine flu before declaring an emergency in 2009.

CDC tracking showed a total of 12,469 American deaths from H1N1.

I’m betting Trump finishes way under Obama’s death toll.

Loydo
Reply to  Javert Chip
March 15, 2020 12:47 am

“CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in… between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Some say Covid 19 will become endemic and that eventually everyone will have caught it. Until there is a vaccine, times that infected number by 1%.

Polski
Reply to  Loydo
March 15, 2020 2:27 pm

Hi Willis

I doubt we will ever know the real numbers. From CDC re H1N1, 2009-2010:

” From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.”

Ranges look like CO2 temp guesstimates!
As mentioned above I didn’t notice huge cancellations of events/commerce though many schools closed. Also:

“Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.”

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

I added this to an earlier Covid discussion with the question asking should we be getting ready for many, many more deaths if as some say this time it’s worse?

Loydo
Reply to  Loydo
March 15, 2020 7:59 pm

“The Korean data says about 1%.”

CDC says crude number is”0.9% in Beijing” https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_article

“Overall CFR among all infections was 1.6%”
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104v1

But when Loydo says…times that infected number by 1%

He gets this:

“you’ll have to flog your incessant attempts to gin up more hysteria on some other website. Here we do our best to deal with the truth and the science, and not fall for hype from folks like you.”

Subjective, politically blinded, overly sensitive bollocks.
Further…

“bullshit Lloydo, you hateful prick!?
head jammed straight up your loose @44hole.
So STFU, OK?
useless sack of monkey turds”

You seem to agree this is an appropriate response to polite dissent? What a gentleman.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Loydo
March 16, 2020 6:06 am

Since when is a tirade of smarmy lies about people you obviously hate called “polite dissent”?
A large number of the people who post here regularly have things to add that are informative, interesting, funny, or ask intelligent questions, or provide relevant information.
Another subset never have anything to say that is not combative, argumentative, unhelpful, insulting, rude, untrue, flat out wrong, or outright lies, and are in fact some combination of some or all of the above.
You are one of these people, Lloydo, and do not think for a minute that is lost on anyone.
You have never, as far as I can discern, made a single positive contribution to any thread, or had anything good or even neutral to say about anyone not a card carrying member of your little mutual admiration/lickspittle brown-noser society.
In fact you make a point of deliberately and obscenely antagonizing people for whom you have nothing but contempt.
Personally, I cannot imagine what kind of a person wakes up in the morning looking forward to seeking out people with whom one shares no common ground and making a loathsome pain in the ass of myself for days and week on end.

Polite dissent!
Hah!
Making up lies about people is not polite, and it is not dissent, it is just lying.
Telling a whole country they will be sorry because we are all gonna be dead soon because of how stupid we are is as offensive as any person could ever be, even if people were not actually dying.
I can tell you this, Lloydo: I made a suggestion to you, something you never do for anyone here.
You have chosen to ignore it, completely, and in fact are doubling down by suggesting you said nothing that was not polite. I reckon most boorish gadflies are aware of what they are, but you make it obvious some apparently have no idea how they are perceived.
Go read what I wrote to you again.
I meant every word of it, and in fact you deserve much worse scorn and condemnation.
You left out the most relevant part. But you did implicitly confirm what was glaringly obvious: You have nothing positive to contribute, ever, about anything, to anyone.
Think about that, and how you choose to spend your time here, instead of helping anyone.
Wherever you live, people are either dying, or they soon will be. What have you done to change anything in your own back yard? Who have you helped?
What is your suggestion, regarding anything?
Just one single suggestion, for one single thing?
One tiny detail, where your wonderful insight might make a difference no matter how tiny in even one single life.
Let’s hear it?
I bet you got nothing.

Mark Luhman
Reply to  Loydo
March 15, 2020 12:27 am

He had to much faith in the CDC, they failed not Trump. He corrected that, now anybody and any can now develop a test they only have to show it works. Prior to the the CDC was shutting down every other test not created by them. That was a mistake, Trump corrected that, quit blaming Trump put the blame where it belongs and that the bureaucracy. Of course useful idiot think the bureaucracy is all powerful, those of who are not useful idiot recognize most of the time a bureaucracy is and group of incompetents cluster in a group, protected from their incompetency by civil service

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Mark Luhman
March 15, 2020 5:29 am

“He had too much faith in the CDC, they failed not Trump.”

I don’t think it should be characterized as a failure of the CDC. Unfortunately, Dr. Fauci described it as a “failing” and naturally the no-good, Leftwing Media picked that word up and declared the Trump administration effort a failure. ,The CDC are being blamed for not having a plan for mass testing when there never was such a plan to begin with, not in the Trump administration or any previous administration.

As I said before, the measure of leadership is not about discovering a problem in your operation, it is about how you deal with the problem once it is discovered. Trump has mobilized the whole nation to fix this problem.

Patrick
Reply to  Earthling2
March 14, 2020 3:47 am

Because the PRC government takes 1984 as a “how to” book, rather than a warning.

Reply to  Patrick
March 14, 2020 6:59 am

Patrick wrote:
“Because the PRC government takes 1984 as a “how to” book, rather than a warning.”

Not just the PRC (China) – this is also the plan of the Liberal Party of Canada, led by our uber-leftist Prime Minister and his Marxist minions.

Leader of the Opposition Andrew Scheer told Trudeau in the House of Commons:
”George Orwell’s ‘1984’ was supposed to be a cautionary tale about the evils of big government, not an Instruction Manual for this Prime Minister.”

Scheer also noted Justin Trudeau’s public admiration for the “Chinese basic dictatorship”, Trudeau’s praise for mass murderer Fidel Castro, and stated that Trudeau put “progressive” unionist leader Jerry Diaz on a panel to decide which newspapers would get their share of Trudeau’s $600 million – public money used to buy the loyalty of the print media.

https://globalnews.ca/video/6500627/scheer-compares-recommendations-set-forth-by-yale-report-to-1984-as-he-spars-with-trudeau-during-question-period

If “Grandpa” Bernie Sanders were elected, he would soon be replaced by a ruthless dictator and the killing would start.

That is what happened in the 20th Century – a murderous socialist sociopath seized total control, destroyed the economy, killed his opponents, terrorized the population, and stayed in control for many decades unless he was toppled by war. I just described Lenin, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Castro and Pol Pot. Zimbabwe and Venezuela are more recent examples. Why does anyone think it will be different this time? It won’t.

In Soviet defector Yuri Bezmenov’s 1984 interview he predicts everything that is happening now.
https://youtu.be/bX3EZCVj2XA

Canada under Marxist Justin Trudeau is already far down that disastrous path. Trudeau has bribed failing Canadian print media with $600 million to gain compliance, and it is working. The Yale Report recently recommended licensing of Canadian media = total control.

Leader of the Opposition Andrew Scheer told Trudeau in the House of Commons:
”George Orwell’s ‘1984’ was supposed to be a cautionary tale about the evils of big government, not an Instruction Manual for this Prime Minister.”

“Scheer compares recommendations set forth by Yale report to Orwell’s ‘1984’ as he spars with Trudeau during Question Period”
https://globalnews.ca/video/6500627/scheer-compares-recommendations-set-forth-by-yale-report-to-1984-as-he-spars-with-trudeau-during-question-period

Canada is probably finished – our voters are sheep being stampeded by wolves.

Donald Trump is the great hope for the survival of democracy and free enterprise in the USA.

Janet L. Chennault
Reply to  Earthling2
March 14, 2020 10:42 am

There is actually a good reason for caution in naming a disease after a location: Syphilis was called ‘French disease’ in Italy, the ‘Italian disease’ in France, the ‘Spanish disease’ in England, the ‘Polish disease’ in Russia, the ‘Christian disease’ in Turkey…
This does no good for science or medicine: It is much better to call syphilis “Treponema pallidum” and have everyone use the same term.
Similarly, it is more accurate to call the current virus SARS-CoV-2 and its disease Covid-19; the former term links the virus phylogenetically to the similar SARS virus and the latter is a systematic disease name taken from the virus type and year.
Other than that, I totally agree with dissing political correctness and happily agree with the lifestyle of a hermit. My plum trees also suffered a similar rain-borne dismay to their early and beautiful blossoms. Oh well: weather is not ‘tame’ and I am glad we have rain.

Jan

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Janet L. Chennault
March 14, 2020 11:18 am

Mark Twain called it the “Sailor’s Disease.” There is reason to believe that it was brought from the New World by Columbus and subsequent early explorers, and was extremely virulent when first introduced into the Old World.

Reply to  Earthling2
March 14, 2020 7:47 pm

It’s actually not 100% sure if the virus originated in Wuhan. Patient 0 hasn’t been conclusively identified yet. And the name for the city nearest the origin of any virus is utterly irrelevant to its biological nature, or to the human question of “what do we do about it now”. Put the city in the description, not the definition or the name.

While I have a visceral dislike for CNN, I actually support the idea that infectious strands of RNA shouldn’t be named after places, or even people. The same is arguably true for fundamental equations in physics or math.

To be truly objective and universal, Science is best when detached from extraneous and superfluous details.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Wisdom Seeker
March 15, 2020 5:35 am

“While I have a visceral dislike for CNN, I actually support the idea that infectious strands of RNA shouldn’t be named after places, or even people.”

Except the talking heads at CNN were using the term “Wuhan virus” initially until some Republican used the name and then the CNN talking heads decided that saying “Wuhan virus” was racist. Could these people be any more dishonest? I don’t think so. And they couldn’t be more dangerous, either, distorting the truth and playing political games during this crisis.

Simon
Reply to  Tom Abbott
March 16, 2020 10:56 am

Tom Abbott
“Except the talking heads at CNN were using the term “Wuhan virus” initially until some Republican used the name and then the CNN talking heads decided that saying “Wuhan virus” was racist.”
I think you are the one who might be telling porkies. I call BS on this. Clip please?

Lance Wallace
March 13, 2020 10:19 pm

Willis–

Tonight on Rachel, David Ho (of AIDS fame) showed the beginnings of the Gompertz curve for NYC. Considering that we are getting a delayed start on testing, not that many ventilators, etc., maybe you can try your hand on estimating the curve for the US given the Washington State, New York, and California data. How much does beta have to change to get 100,000 deaths?

Greg
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 14, 2020 12:45 am

The curious part is, “exponential growth” doesn’t actually describe the progress of a given disease. Exponential growth never stops

I don’t think any expects a disease to be describe as an exponential throughout its entire course. The exponential is the initial spread and what makes it a problem “pandemic” or not.

The initial point of interest is when is it starting to break from exponential growth and flatten out .

A simpler way to see that is look at new daily case number, which is effectively the time differential of the total number of infections. Since the diff of exp is also exp it starts off looking the same but the break is more obvious. The differential, being a kind of low-pass filter makes changes more visible and suppresses longer term trends.

It is easier to see when the daily cases breaks from exponential phase than to eyeball whether the slope of the total is still steep enough to count as exponential.

This is what I did here:
comment image

Unfortunately things don’t always fit the simple maths and Germany had fairly constant new case figures for four days and then spiked again.

Thanks for the Gompertz curve. I will have to look into the reason for using that model. It is similar to another model I used for AOD after Mt. Pinatubo eruptions.

https://climategrog.wordpress.com/2017/08/16/an-analytic-function-for-aod/
λ1λ2 / ( λ1 – λ2 ) . ( exp-λ1t – exp-λ2t )

This is based on and exponential growth process fighting an exponential decay of the product of the former. I was thinking of applying this nCov for China and S. Korea but my main interest is when the growth breaks out of exp , rather than how long it takes to fade. Worry about that later.

Maybe these two expressions are equivalent, I’ll have to dig into it.

Greg
Reply to  Greg
March 14, 2020 1:48 am

Looking at that again, while it does fit Mt. P quite well it is not the same kind of process. The eruption was a pulse insertion with a rate process, so ( 1-exp ) growth, not an exponential growth like the viral spread. My bad.

Greg
Reply to  Greg
March 14, 2020 3:16 am

My suggestion would be fit the derivative, as mentioned this is more sensitive to change.

https://demonstrations.wolfram.com/TheGompertzSigmoidFunctionAndItsDerivative/

That should be more accurate than fitting to a rather smoothly changing curve.

comment image

That plot is using a,b,c as defined at wolfram and adding a delay to give calendar days from Jan 1st:

a=9000; b=-1/.38; c=-1/4.7; d=56;

How does that compare to the values you got from fitting Gompertz >

Scissor
Reply to  Greg
March 14, 2020 7:02 am

That’s a good way to describe it, exponential growth fighting exponential decay.

I’ve noticed that alarmists tend to shorten the doubling time and extrapolate the exponential part of the curve too far. They don’t consider decay until everyone is infected or dead.

Greg
Reply to  Scissor
March 14, 2020 8:57 am

someone lower down made the analogy to brewing. This is actually quite a good fit.

Initial exponential growth of both yeast cells and gas production activity : it’s time derivative ( both are exponential) . Then as sugar supply ( uninfected hosts ) diminishes the activity declines. Finally, with no more nutrient ( viral hosts ) the infection dies off.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Greg
March 14, 2020 11:24 am
David
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 14, 2020 6:38 am

Thanks, that’s what I wanted to know. When it does start to decelerate, can you update this post with an estimate? Would allow people to see the end of the tunnel…

Phil.
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 14, 2020 1:23 pm

Yes I’d been discussing this on one of David Middleton’s posts, I tend to use the logistic curve rather than the Gompertz but they’re both ‘s’-shaped curves. I tend to look as the S Korean data as a model given their superior testing regime. Their data has passed the growth peak and their parameters can be described now. The Italian and US data has not reached that status yet but the impression is that the inflection point will be later than the S Korean one.

StephenP
Reply to  Lance Wallace
March 14, 2020 1:17 am

We were taught the s-shaped curve at Cambridge in the 1960s in relation to the growth of animals.
The only problem that I can forsee is that we were told that overall animal growth consisted of a series of s-shaped curves, one following another.
Does this mean that the virus could mutate and provide a series of curves, building one on the other?

tty
Reply to  StephenP
March 14, 2020 6:42 am

No, it would start a new one from zero, if the mutation is large enough to nullify immunity.

Robertvd
Reply to  Lance Wallace
March 14, 2020 1:27 pm

China population 1,427,647,786 Total Deaths 3.193 = +/- 0,0000022 %
Italy population 60,317,546 Total Deaths 1.441 = +/- 0,000024%

John K.
March 13, 2020 10:24 pm

Great post. Thank you.

Here is a link to a 2 min video from the Media Research Center, showing additional evidence to your two tweet examples, that we cannot trust the biased media hypocrites.

https://youtu.be/5eZtCq1aj2g

n.n
March 13, 2020 10:29 pm

Progress is monotonic. No diversity, no color judgments. Stop and smell the flowers.

Steven Mosher
March 13, 2020 10:30 pm

we are at 8086 in Korea

our number is peaking because we are nearing the end of testing all the church member.
with 260,000 tests conducted.

there are 17000 tests still awaiting processing.

Then there will be more testing because outbreaks still continue

10 minutes ago I got another phone alert of a case within 5 minutes travel time of me.

here is how testing works going forward

1 person gets it in a building on the 10th floor. Everyone on floors 8 to 12 get tested.

Steven Mosher
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 13, 2020 10:43 pm

The issue is the death rate . its over taxing the health system
we will “take over” 7000 offices and convert them to care facilities.

In China you would not believe the steps they took to bend that curve
If you dont you end up with a rate of infection that is limited by herd immunity.
which you can calculate. its not good

So yes the curves WILL BEND. you can bend it early or let nature take its course

John Finn
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 14, 2020 5:47 am

Willis

There is some debate in the UK about the best strategy. Our medical and scientific advisers are suggesting we let nature take its course but ‘flatten’ the curve and do all b all we can to protect vulnerable groups. The reasons for this are

1. We will build herd immunity among the fit and healthy
2. The infection (and hospitalisation) peak will occur during the summer months when our health service is better able to cope.
3. There is emerging evidence that this virus is sensitive to temperature and humidity, i.e. it’s seasonal – like flu. See below

The early virus hotspots were Wuhan (China), Daegu (South Korea) and Qom (Iran). These 3 locations are in a narrow latitude band (30N-35N) and have similar climates. Despite considerable contact and travel from China to Thailand and other Countries to the South, the virus has had little effect there.

In the past few weeks the hotspot ‘band’ has moved further North. See the link

comment image/:/rs=w:1280

A lot of people are attributing the slowdown in cases in China & SK to the measures taken but it might have more to do with “climate change” (the seasonal type – at least :-)).

The bottom line is that the virus could re-emerge when climate conditions are more favourable. This would suggest the UK strategy is the best one to follow. Download the paper from the link. is here. It’s worth a read.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 14, 2020 8:00 am

Thank you John Finn and others, including Willis and Mosh.

This is not my area of expertise, so I have some elementary questions:

1. During the great Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-1919, did that flu disappear after two years because ~everyone on the planet had been exposed and had either died or developed natural immunity to the virus?

2. Is it accurate to state that current containment actions are intended to “flatten the curve” sooner – to reduce the number of people who are exposed to the Covid-19 virus?

3. Recognizing that containment will never be perfect, and assuming that nothing else is done (such as mass immunization with an effective vaccine), will containment merely extend the number of years that this virus will return and the total number of global deaths will be about the same, until the time when the global population is all naturally immunized and the illness is no longer a serious threat?

4. Alternatively, will containment also impact the “dose effect”, meaning that many people will be exposed to lower dosages of the virus, and will develop natural immunity without ever getting seriously ill?

No coffee yet so these questions might be pretty dumb.

David Blenkinsop
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 14, 2020 10:33 am

I’m particularly interested in John Finn’s observation that

“The infection (and hospitalisation) peak will occur during the summer months when our health service is better able to cope.”

To me, this seems like basically the ‘opposite’ of what I’m sure I’ve seen people hint at sometimes, that summer weather should *reduce* the incidence of viruses. Instead, if I take Mr. Finn at his word, we should expect there to be *more* cases, not less, as the season gets warmer, with services planning ahead for that, hopefully? Maybe we can’t know where the S-curve will top out until mid-May sometime?

As someone who lives in western Canada, I can’t help but make the observation here, anecdotal as it may seem, that I never ever seem to catch a cold, or anything, when it is minus 40 Celsius, or even minus 20, or something like that. It is always when the weather warms up significantly that you start to get the real flu and cold season. Say it goes up near freezing, or even above freezing and things start to melt, that’s when to watch out! Maybe it just has to with people becoming more mobile, traveling around more when the weather gets better, but I’d swear the effect is real, anyway.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 15, 2020 6:50 am

Since nobody has answered my questions, I will comment further in CAPS based on more reading – just my best guesses – informed comments welcome.

This is not my area of expertise, so I have some elementary questions:

1. During the great Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-1919, did that flu disappear after two years because ~everyone on the planet had been exposed and had either died or developed natural immunity to the virus?
YES – GLOBAL “NATURALLY ACQUIRED HERD IMMUNITY” DEVELOPED QUICKLY DUE TO A LACK OF CONTAINMENT. NOTE THAT ~~50 MILLION PEOPLE DIED WORLDWIDE FROM THAT AVIAN VIRUS.

2. Is it accurate to state that current containment actions are intended to “flatten the curve” sooner – to reduce the number of people who are exposed to the Covid-19 virus?
YES, BUT INITIAL CONTAINMENT HAS FAILED SINCE THE COVID-19 DISEASE CAUSED BY THE SARS-CoV-2 VIRUS HAS TRAVELED ACROSS THE WORLD. SECONDARY CONTAINMENT EFFORTS ARE NOW BEING IMPLEMENTED.

3. Recognizing that containment will never be perfect, and assuming that nothing else is done (such as mass immunization with an effective vaccine), will containment merely extend the number of years that this virus will return and the total number of global deaths will be about the same, until the time when global populations are all naturally immunized and the illness is no longer a serious threat?
CONTAINMENT SLOWS THE RATE OF TRANSMISSION AND REDUCES THE NUMBER OF CASES AT ANY GIVEN TIME, SO HOSPITALS ARE MORE ABLE TO COPE WITH SEVERE ILLNESSES, AND CONTAINMENT ALLOWS TIME FOR A (HOPEFULLY EFFECTIVE) VACCINE TO BE DEVELOPED. AN EFFECTIVE VACCINE SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE TOTAL MORTALITY. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF AN EFFECTIVE VACCINE, CONTAINMENT WILL INCREASE THE TIME BEFORE NATURALLY ACQUIRED HERD IMMUNITY DEVELOPS.

4. Alternatively, will containment also impact the “dose effect”, meaning that many people will be exposed to lower dosages of the virus, and will develop natural immunity without ever getting seriously ill?
THIS CAN ALSO BE TRUE, SUCH THAT PEOPLE WHO PRACTICE GOOD PERSONAL HYGIENE WILL BE EXPOSED TO MINOR DOSES OF THE VIRUS AND WILL NOT GET SERIOUSLY ILL BUT WILL DEVELOP NATURALLY ACQUIRED IMMUNITY.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 21, 2020 3:55 am

Re my point 1 above:

World population in 1918 was ~1.8 Billion.

The 1918 flu pandemic infected about 500 million people around the world, killing 50 to 199 million of them. This was 3-5% of the world’s population at the time. This was one of the deadliest natural disasters in human history.

https://www.answers.com/Q/World_population_1918

whiten
Reply to  Steven Mosher
March 14, 2020 5:35 am

Steven Mosher
March 13, 2020 at 10:43 pm

Steven,
Even when considering that one of the factors in consideration of rate of infection happens to be herd immunity, still that factor does not consist as decreasing or increasing the rate of infection during an epidemic or pandemic.

The herd immunity over the time of epidemic or pandemic reduces the rate of severity and the rate of fatality.
Due to the over time stabilization of immune response to the mass infection.

Phoenix44
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 14, 2020 3:07 am

Testing is pointless. There are almost certainly tens of thousands who have it going untested because they are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. It’s a waste of time and resources once the virus has passed beyond any realistic containment phase.

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Phoenix44
March 14, 2020 5:48 am

Testing mainly helps to discriminate between different diseases for those who show symptoms. The number of false positives among the uninfected population will otherwise swamp the numbers, potentially leading toa misallocation of resources.

GregB
Reply to  Phoenix44
March 14, 2020 6:18 am

It certainly seems like that. Closing the barn door. But the stated policy is delay, not containment. If, as Dr Aylward claims, asymptomatic transmission is minimal there would be justification in taking containment measures in order to ease the strain on hospitals. If not, containment and lockdown will have been a complete waste of time and economic cost.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  GregB
March 16, 2020 3:58 am

As far as I have been able to discern, almost everyone who is infected has no idea how they became infected. These people are dispersed all over the globe.
So, why would this doctor think asymptomatic transmission is minimal?
It appears to me this is why we are seeing so many people getting it.
People who are very sick with a bad cold or flu typically do not go around infecting people, and other people spot such individuals readily and avoid them and, I would think in this particular circumstance, alert others that a sick person is apparently out and about when a pandemic is raging.
To restate, it seems to me most of the new cases are due to asymptomatic transmission.
And being widely dispersed, a large number of spreaders is not just implied, it is indeed virtually impossible to imagine how the disease has spread widely without assuming a large number of carriers and a certain percentage of super spreaders, and most of them asymptomatic.

Scissor
Reply to  Phoenix44
March 14, 2020 7:36 am

That’s certainly true at some point. People who aren’t familiar with testing and results also are naive with regard to uncertainty. For example, tests that are too sensitive will give a false positive and tests that are not sensitive enough will give false negatives. Besides these errors, personnel and machines doing the tests or even interpreting results make mistakes.

A super infector might not be discovered by testing and then might go about freely infecting more people than would have been the case without testing.

old engineer
Reply to  Phoenix44
March 14, 2020 3:41 pm

Phoenix44-

“Testing is pointless.” For the individual this is certainly true. If you have symptoms and get tested, will the treatment prescribed be any different if you are positive than if you are negative? The answer is no, since there is no specific treatment for the Wuhan virus (Thanks for name, Willis. As others have pointed out, there are problems with all the other names). The treatment for your symptoms will be the same.

However, it seems to me that from a public health perspective, it would be helpful to know if the cause of your symptoms was the Wuhan virus. South Korea seems to be an example of how useful data can be.

Scissor
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 14, 2020 7:28 am

The S. Korean population is younger than most also, so they have that going for them.

c_heale
Reply to  Scissor
March 14, 2020 8:37 pm

Couldn’t agree more. Never seen such a narcissist. “It’s not my responsibility”. Yes, it damn well is. Who cut the pandemic team. Trump.

America needs a giant in the Whitehouse, and it has a midget.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  c_heale
March 15, 2020 5:41 am

The Democrats don’t have a Giant among them. They only have Court Jesters.

Reply to  c_heale
March 15, 2020 7:16 pm

Kingston Trio
Merry Minuet

They’re rioting in Africa,
They’re starving in Spain.
There’s hurricanes in Florida,
And Texas needs rain

The whole world is festering
With unhappy souls.
The French hate the Germans,
The Germans hate the Poles;
Italians hate Yugoslavs,
South Africans hate the Dutch,
And I don’t like anybody very much! 🙂

Greg
Reply to  Steven Mosher
March 14, 2020 3:37 am

“Everyone on floors 8 to 12 get tested.”

Does it go through the floor? I don’t know what Korean society is like but do people really mix between floors beyond being in the elevators at that same time?

I suppose there is some kind of bell curve of the probability of crossing someone from an adjacent floor but someone on level 2 must have the same chance of meeting someone from any floor and for an equal amount of time. Someone on the top floor meets everyone with equal probability but for longer the higher ( thus nearer ) they are to the top.

Best wishes Mosh. Keep up posted.

Steven Mosher
Reply to  Greg
March 14, 2020 4:37 am

““Everyone on floors 8 to 12 get tested.”

Does it go through the floor? I don’t know what Korean society is like but do people really mix between floors beyond being in the elevators at that same time?”

Some evidence from China suggests airbourne transmission. tests are about 25 bucks a person.
They are exercising caution.

Jeff Besos could buy 400 million tests and not even blink

instead he is donating to climate change crap

In China you will get swabbed when you get off the plane if you are from a Hot zone

yirgach
Reply to  Steven Mosher
March 14, 2020 3:46 pm

but do people really mix between floors beyond being in the elevators at that same time?”

Could it be taking advantage of the elevator shafts?

John in Oz
March 13, 2020 10:31 pm

Does the curve allow for the deaths due to fighting for a toilet roll? Some of these brawls look pretty violent.

Can these deaths be attributed to the virus?

Is this the same as dying from a secondary effect of having the virus, as they claim will be the case for the ill/old/infirm if they are infected?

Don’t you love watching the madness of crowds, provided it is from a distance?

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  John in Oz
March 14, 2020 1:33 am

One death here, due to 20 tons of tinned food and loo roll, fell on him and killed him. 😂

Greg
Reply to  John in Oz
March 14, 2020 5:08 am

If I was expecting a run on toilet paper (no pun intended) I would buy myself a small square of flannel.

How sad our society has become when we think bog paper is worth fighting for.

GregB
Reply to  Greg
March 14, 2020 6:24 am

Says something more when anal hygiene is symbolic of health.

rah
Reply to  Greg
March 14, 2020 10:46 am

Herd mentality. Kid was suspended at school, before they closed it, for selling squirts of hand cleaner to his classmates. Now there is a future politician or globalist industrialist in the making.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  John in Oz
March 14, 2020 6:52 am

“Does the curve allow for the deaths due to fighting for a toilet roll? Some of these brawls look pretty violent.

Can these deaths be attributed to the virus?”

No, those deaths should be attributed to the fearmongering Leftwind Media who have driven some people into an unnecessary panic over the Wuhan virus..

Toto
March 13, 2020 10:32 pm

I know about the S-curve because of making wine. You add the yeast bits to the juice and they go crazy. But eventually (soon enough) they have eaten through most of the sugars and created too much alcohol for their own good. If the river was whiskey…

That said, the wine vine blight and the potato blight and the American chestnut blight did not level off at the “we can live with this level”. Although they do still exist because of places the blight did not reach.

Don’t panic, but be prepared.

Greg
Reply to  Toto
March 14, 2020 4:52 am

Fermentation is probably quite a good analogy.

Initial fermentation takes 7-10days and the long tail takes several months to really stop. I usually wait 2 months before putting my beer on lockdown. Wine can take almost a year to finally clear the infection.

Robert W. Turner
Reply to  Greg
March 14, 2020 9:54 am

Secondary fermentation is actually a completely different process, it’s malolactic fermentation from a bacteria converting malolactic acid to lactic acid.

Susan
Reply to  Toto
March 15, 2020 11:09 am

‘Trust in God and keep your powder dry’,
English Civil War quote.
Also applicable: ‘hope for the best but plan for the worst’.

John Tillman
March 13, 2020 10:34 pm

ChiCom and Iranian death “data” are packs of lies. Figures from Republic of Korea are as good as can be. Current Red Chinese lie is fewer than 3200 fatalities.

Yeah, right.

Can’t usefully fit an S-curve to fake numbers.

Phoenix44
Reply to  John Tillman
March 14, 2020 3:10 am

Yes, unless China somehow reduced the death rate by a factor of ten at least, there are ten times as many deaths as they claim. Assuming Wuhan has 5 million people and 3 million were infected, deaths there were 30,000.

Greg
Reply to  Phoenix44
March 14, 2020 4:57 am

Very easy to sound off about chinese govt lying but apart from personal bias what is death toll based on ?

Are you the first person who manages to work out the final death toll ?

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Greg
March 14, 2020 5:23 am

cremation is going to make the final toll whatever they say it is.
burials are harder to conceal

Greg
Reply to  ozspeaksup
March 14, 2020 9:02 am

So you strident declaration of “deaths there were 30,000” was pulled out of your fundament. I thought so.

Lowell
Reply to  Greg
March 14, 2020 12:42 pm

just looking at the normal death rate for a city of 10,000,000 people is
= population/70 years/365 days = 391/day
The crematoriums were running at least a 4x rate during the height of the crisis.
So (4x-1)x391 = a death toll of at least 1173 per day at the height of the crisis Wuhan in china

The china experts Ive listened to believe china underestimated by at least 10x

tty
Reply to  Phoenix44
March 14, 2020 6:49 am

If 3 million had been infected they would probably never have been able to contain it. And they freely admit that their statistics have presumably missed most mild cases:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593v1

By the way Wuhan has more than 10 million people.

Bob boder
Reply to  tty
March 14, 2020 9:21 am

The province it’s in has over 150,000,000. Yet even if 3,000,000 got it and 30,000 died it’s still in a similar category as the Seasonal flu. Bad, very much so, end of the world and panic worthy no.

jim hogg
Reply to  John Tillman
March 14, 2020 5:04 am

Evidence for these claims would be useful . . .

Steven Mosher
March 13, 2020 10:36 pm

be very careful with the Korean data.
its dominated by cases in Daegu and Gyeinbuk
Both have flattened ( testing ending)

In Seoul we are skyrocking 5 cases to 238 in 20days
same for Gyeonggi province 10 to 200 in 20 days

Greg Williams
March 13, 2020 10:38 pm

In year 12 Specialist Maths here in Western Australia, we study what is called the logistic model, which is modelled by the equation dP/dt =aP – bP^2. The “a” is usually much greater than the “b”, so while the population is small, the result is pretty much exponential, but once the population gets large, the smallness of the “b” is negated by the largeness of the P^2, and it starts to negate the exponential component and reaches a steady state.

wws
March 13, 2020 10:38 pm

I’m a bit surprised you didn’t include the SIR model, here’s a graphical representation of this basic
mathematical model for epidemics;

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/SIR_model

early on new cases increase exponentially, then they level off, then they being to drop, with a long tail. Once they begin to drop the most dangerous phase of the epidemic is over. Experiences in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Shanghai suggest that this virus goes through those phases in a 6 – 8 week time frame.

Greg
Reply to  wws
March 14, 2020 3:41 am

Useless bunk for WonkyPedia since it does not have the slightest mathematical formula !

John Finn
Reply to  Greg
March 14, 2020 5:55 am

There’s a couple of decent youtube videos which give a simple explanation of the S-I-R model. I’m not sure if this is one of them but you can try others if not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISHVGtEyBPs

Without examining your “logistics model” closely, at first glance it looks to have a similar format to the S-I-R model.

March 13, 2020 10:39 pm

“So let me suggest that we take all precautions, wash hands, social distancing, canceling large gatherings, testing as and when required, self-quarantine, it’s very important to slow the virus down … and that we also dial way back on the hysteria and the politicization of the issue. I assure you, assigning blame to one political party or the other and buying six cases of toilet paper won’t help end the epidemic. Although I must confess, thanks to the web I finally understand the panic buying of toilet paper. I read that it’s because when one person sneezes, a hundred people soil their underpants … so don’t be one of them.”

Thank you for this post and that succinct and logical advice above which I shared with friends.

LN
March 13, 2020 10:50 pm

Thanks for the Gompertz curve. Great tool.
Countries that have “controlled” the spread (China, S.Korea) seem to have peak cases about 15 to 17 days after the first sharp rise. The U.S. is about 12 days since the first sustained sharp rise. Our present event/school cancellations make me think we will be flattening in about five days.

Willis, I’m asking everyone: What is the false positive rate for the CV test? Is that the reason for the need for risk factors and a possible illusion of limited test availability?

Phil.
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 14, 2020 1:38 pm

Minor quibble Willis, the PCR tests check the RNA of the virus, like HIV, coronavirus has an RNA genome. When we do the PCR test we first have to convert the RNA to the equivalent DNA and then run PCR on that. My understanding is that the initial error in the first set of tests was the result of a fault in one of the components (probably the primers for those interested).

niceguy
Reply to  Phil.
March 15, 2020 1:24 am

What happened with the WHO tests?

Were they considered substandard?

John Burdick
March 13, 2020 10:50 pm

Would like to see Italy and Spain as additional examples which would indicate what happens in a less aggressive response to an early outbreak.

Scissor
Reply to  John Burdick
March 14, 2020 7:47 am

The median age in Spain and Italy are on the high side. All things being equal, this will lead to a higher percentage of deaths also.

March 13, 2020 11:04 pm

Benjamin Gompertz was an actuary and I am so old that I had to study his work to become an actuary myself. I think in 1825 his formula was quite relevant as many deaths, particularly at old ages then, would have been from opportunistic infectious diseases that invaded people with immune system that were compromised by heart and or lung diseases and cancers, which in turn were caused by polluted environments, poor lifestyles and diets.
The reason why epidemic curves eventually flatten out is that the reproductive rate R0 reduces over time because there gradually become fewer and fewer people to spread it to. This may be due to the pathogen either killing too many people, too many people becoming immune to the pathogen, or, in this case, community isolation policies. Immunity can happen through past infection or immunization via a vaccine. A vaccine for SARS-COV-2 is still many months away so community isolation is the only effective way of controlling this virus at this time. This is why community isolation measures are being adopted by most countries to stop this virus so that their hospital systems are able to cope because, unfortunately, some 5% to 10% of infected people become so ill as to require hospitalization and about half of them require intensive care treatment for 1 – 2 weeks. The triaging out of people over 65 in Italy and their subsequent high death rate from this virus is due to Italy not adopting effecting social isolation policies early enough in virus effected areas.
The initial R0 for this virus was calculated by Chinese epidemiologists at 4.08. This was before social isolation policies in China had had any time to work. Since then WHO has published many figures which are less than this. Measles has an estimated R0 of 15, which means that theoretically unless more than 90% (actually 93%) of the community is immunized a single case of measles imported from some country where people are not immunized could start a new epidemic.

niceguy
Reply to  Brent Walker
March 14, 2020 10:47 pm

That’s why you should hope your population is soundly measles immunized, by allowing it to spread among children, instead of improperly containing it with a vaccine that seems to protect in the age range where it’s safest to catch it, and starts to fade in the 20ties, as epidemic among vaccinated crowds proved (which was insanely used by insane vaxxers to promote the vaccine – but we all know vaxxers are insane).

Stephen Rasey
March 13, 2020 11:08 pm

The most important parameter in the fitting of curves is when the rules of social distancing changes. So long as one infected person can infect 10 others before being diagnosed, the curve has explosive growth.

Once people change their behavior to limiting close contact to a hand full of people over a span of weeks does the growth of new infections go negative. There is a time lag before the number of diagnosed cases decline.

Phoenix44
Reply to  Stephen Rasey
March 14, 2020 3:11 am

The Rzero appears to be 2-4.

tty
Reply to  Phoenix44
March 14, 2020 7:12 am

Recent data from Wuhan suggests 3.5-4 when uncontained.

mario lento
March 13, 2020 11:15 pm

This is a much needed post. People use the word exponential incorrectly a lot… and you’re right. The virus if novel, new, has a green field of potential new non immune hosts, which get diluted as saturation starts or if and when opportunities are infringed upon due to several reasons. Nice Willis!

John Broadbent
March 13, 2020 11:33 pm

Willis, I would like to know how testing actually affects the curve?
For a virus that can have relatively mild symptoms and was not the subject of an existing regular testing program, the sudden publicity, the availability of a test and the sudden rush to test may create such a curve. The curve flattens if the virus is relatively benign and the rate of testing catches up with with those infected in the community. The mortality curve could be similarly affected as Authorities begin testing for an assigning deaths to the disease.
Old age was once a common killer of forty-five year olds!

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  John Broadbent
March 14, 2020 12:11 pm

John

You claimed, “Old age was once a common killer of forty-five year olds!” Not so! The oft repeated claim of a life expectancy of 45 years was the average for those who lived through the first year. However, childhood diseases ravaged the very young, and warfare and childbirth took a heavy toll among young adults. Hence, the AVERAGE was only 45. That implies that approximately half the population lived more than 45 years, which was most of those who didn’t die in childhood. Indeed, there is evidence that, for those who made it past the high-risk early years, they didn’t have the risk of modern cancers and diabetes and might live longer than a modern person of the same age.

John Broadbent
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
March 15, 2020 1:32 am

Dear Clyde
Nice decoy run!
Love to have a discussion about Old Age being a listed historically as the cause of death in the absence of our knowledge of other causes. I understand your point is correct from my knowledge. My analogy was people used to die from old age not cancer, etc. Now, only chickens get old and die around my place.

My question is how does the equation for the diagnosis or mortality curve account for the complete absence of a diagnostic test , the publicity, the gradual availability of tests, etc ?
This has still not received the attention I believe it deserves.
Happy to be corrected.

Tony
March 13, 2020 11:56 pm

This maths video gives more detail:

John Broadbent
March 14, 2020 12:08 am

Willis, I would like to know how testing actually affects the curve?
For a virus that can have relatively mild symptoms and was not the subject of an existing regular testing program, the sudden publicity, the availability of a test and the sudden rush to test may create such a curve. The curve flattens if the virus is relatively benign and the rate of testing catches up with with those infected in the community. The mortality curve could be similarly affected as Authorities begin testing for an assigning deaths to the disease.
Old age was once a common killer of forty-five year olds!

Apologies if this is a repeat.

March 14, 2020 12:11 am

Thanks Willis for Gompertz curve graphs.
For logarithmic vs linear graphing of total cases reported see
<a href=https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6.Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Dashboard – lower right graphs
Currently global cases are following about exponential growth
(per about a linear slope on the logarithmic graph.

Dominic Moorhouse
March 14, 2020 12:16 am

The graphs have Total Deaths on the y axis.
I think you you mean Total Cases.

Derg
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 14, 2020 5:17 am

My motto is perfection is the enemy of good enough…but I work in non life threatening software 😉

Joey Gough
March 14, 2020 12:17 am

In China and Korea (and Italy) the reduction in infection rate has followed the introduction of draconian constraints on travel and social interaction. The big question is, “What is going to happen when those restrictions are lifted.”

My guess is that the infection rate will accelerate again. The current restrictions can’t remain indefinitely or these countries will destroy their economies. The subsequent reduction in wealth and tax intake will limit their ability to fund health services with susequent loss of life from this collateral damage. Managing that is going to be a fine balancing act.

The UK is currently not puting much restriction in place. My guess is that they are going to allow the pandemic to spread a bit further so that when they do put the restrictions in place they will have a greater absolute effect and will reduce the peak which will improve the ability of health services to cope. Puting the restricitons in place early, when say only 1% of the population has been infected will delay the peak, but not reduce it by much.

It will be very interesting to look back in six months or a year and see who was right.

Phoenix44
Reply to  Joey Gough
March 14, 2020 3:15 am

The UK is assuming we cannot contain it and that it will be endemic anyway. Therefore flatten the curve now so that hospital resources don’t get overwhelmed and we get herd immunity for the future.

jim hogg
Reply to  Phoenix44
March 14, 2020 5:11 am

Whitty, Vallance and Johnson have all made statements which when combined with the actions suggested make it fairly clear that they are not bothered about containing it. Herd immunity needs at least 60% infection spread – probably higher – and this is what they have in mind as an acceptable, possibly preferable outcome. Their superficial ramblings about containment don’t square with the underlying policy. This is social darwinism or moral decay (depending how you see it) elevated to political policy. They’ll almost certainly be obliged to back-track, though it’s more likely that Sars_cov_2 will run out of steam before they achieve their herd immunity threshold – a pointless aim if it doesn’t return seasonally, and definitely pointless if the HI threshold isn’t reached and lives that could have been saved by appropriate steps were expended in vain.

GregB
Reply to  jim hogg
March 14, 2020 6:41 am

Herd Immunity Threshold for flu is purportedly as low as 33%.

Lives have an economic cost. We don’t know how many are at stake due to the novelty of the virus. So the precautionary principle is being applied. Time will tell whether is being misapplied.

tty
Reply to  Phoenix44
March 14, 2020 6:56 am

“Therefore flatten the curve now so that hospital resources don’t get overwhelmed”

Which is almost certainly impossible. Requires lowering R0 to just over 1.0 (but not below it, because then the epidemic will trail away and you will never get herd immunity) and drag the epidemic out over many months, perhaps years. The economy will collapse completely long before that and you will get a runaway epidemic, but under much worse circumstances.

whiten
Reply to  tty
March 14, 2020 8:18 am

tty
March 14, 2020 at 6:56 am

In consideration of a very high rate viral infection, either it been new or not,
herd immunity gain or profit, happens to be and is a certainty, at a very high level of success and expectation, regardless of all else.
No one alive today or ever can change that as per matter of nature.

nature shows that a viral infection either is very highly infecting, aka pandemic, or it is very highly severe or fatal,
not both at the same, either as per matter or time…

In all we know in science of epidemiology, the side effect of high or very high rate of viral infections, to the point that the epidemic or the pandemic can not be stopped,
the side effect happens to be;
a low or a very low rate of severity and the same for the rate of fatality, at the end of the day.

Is like put there in stone.

In the end of the day, this herd of ours will get the benefit of this immunization,
due to what it may be considered as an implemented natural “vaccination” of the herd.
No way to stop this.
Like it or not.

cheers

-d
March 14, 2020 12:21 am

Thanks.

I wonder if enough data are available to plot infection and mortality in Italy?

I think you may have missed Spanish and Russian flu.

paul rossiter
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 14, 2020 12:43 am

Surely not yet over 15,000 deaths in Italy. Maybe over 15,000 cases?

Jimmy Haigh
Reply to  paul rossiter
March 14, 2020 1:49 am

According to the list something like currently in Italy there are approx. 17000 cases and 1266 deaths…

jim hogg
Reply to  Jimmy Haigh
March 14, 2020 5:21 am

Yeah, 250 deaths yesterday alone in Italy. Actual cases,of infection as opposed to certified cases, must be much higher – probably 35,000 plus judging by the death toll so far, though that’s higher than it would otherwise be because the healthcare system has been so overwhelmed.

whiten
Reply to  Jimmy Haigh
March 14, 2020 8:33 am

Jimmy Haigh
March 14, 2020 at 1:49 am

In the way the Italy has overreacted to such a condition, it simply means that any info or data from that very hot crazy place happens to be non reliant and highly “toxic” and polluted.
Non reliable or with any meaning, unless for the Italy and the Italians!!!!!
And their self inflicted economical harakiri.

cheers

Petit_Barde
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 14, 2020 1:06 am

The title of the graph seems to be wrong : it shows rather cases, not deaths.

Scissor
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 14, 2020 7:58 am

The y-axis should be total cases.

In any case, as of yesterday in Italy, no one died who was under 30 and only one under 40.

Jimmy Haigh
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 14, 2020 10:34 am

Excellent post as usual Willis. Why not plot cases and deaths on the same chart?

Robert W. Turner
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 14, 2020 9:59 am

Yeah that type of misinformation is part of the overhype of this cold.

Eddie
Reply to  Robert W. Turner
March 21, 2020 6:01 pm

793 deaths in Italy in a single day. Yeah, a cold.

Rod Evans
March 14, 2020 12:48 am

My take on this, is, the world has been developing a hair trigger mentality to risks, ever since some wag suggested humans via CO2 were determining the planet’s future climate.
The herd has been prepped to feel at risk, and hey presto, along comes a new virus, some media input and we end up shutting the world down, shutting sport activity down, shutting travel down and destroying the economics that keep us all safe?
If the media hype had not driven this anxiety into the public and establishment’s minds, then this season’s new virus would have been just another virus, it happens, it will always happen.
Sadly, the established behaviour now to a new virus, is to destroy commerce and destroy peoples livelihoods. The overreaction currently happening in many places will be taken as acceptable behaviour to save…..the planet, or should that be people? How can they not adopt the same mental approach to next years virus? When the out turn from this Covid -19, thanks to the bold actions of coordinated world authority, has been so successful with so few (relatively) deaths, how can they not do the same for all new viruses?.
If you overlaid the current Covid-19 cases, over this seasons winter virus infections that happen every year, you could not detect the Covid-19 component in the numbers.
I have decided to self isolate to avoid being infected by the madness… let me know when its clear to venture out.

GregB
Reply to  Rod Evans
March 14, 2020 6:55 am

You have a point. The economic cost of zero carbon emissions seems to have been discounted by alarmism. Similarly, the economic cost of containment is regarded as of lesser importance. Worst case scenarios are the overriding concern. Time will tell whether its overblown.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  GregB
March 14, 2020 12:20 pm

GregB
Trump has been criticized by the Left for worrying about the economy. He probably has a better grasp of the situation than they do!

tomg
Reply to  Rod Evans
March 14, 2020 7:30 am

Agreed. Even worse are all the “caring” emails I’m getting from business trying to get attention from the hysteria. I kid you not, I received COVID emails from a shoe company, realtor.com, and a company that sells wildflowers. This is beyond deranged.

Robert Bissett
Reply to  Rod Evans
March 14, 2020 10:07 am

Right. It may occur to “world authority” that the same actions should be applied to the regular seasonal flu which is far more deadly yet we do nothing. Wipe out the flu in our lifetime. And deal with human CO2 emissions at the same time. And establish a world government in the process. Utopia.

John Broadbent
March 14, 2020 12:48 am

Willis, I would like to know how testing actually affects the curve?
For a virus that can have relatively mild symptoms and was not the subject of an existing regular testing program, the sudden publicity, the availability of a test and the sudden rush to test may create such a curve. The curve flattens if the virus is relatively benign and the rate of testing catches up with with those infected in the community. The mortality curve could be similarly affected as Authorities begin testing for an assigning deaths to the disease.
Old age was once a common killer of forty-five year olds!

Hivemind
March 14, 2020 12:52 am

Not meaning to be a stick-in-the-mud, but Legionnaire’s Disease wasn’t named for the location, but because it originally hit the 1976 American Legion convention in Philadelphia.

But otherwise your basic point is strong.

j
Reply to  Hivemind
March 14, 2020 6:15 am

True, but the point that the common names of many previous virus outbreaks could be seen by the overly sensitive to impugn some country, area, or group remains valid.