The Week That Was: 2019-12-07 (December 7, 2019)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “The real problem in speech is not precise language. The problem is clear language. The desire is to have the idea clearly communicated to the other person. It is only necessary to be precise when there is some doubt as to the meaning of a phrase, and then the precision should be put in the place where the doubt exists. It is really quite impossible to say anything with absolute precision, unless that thing is so abstracted from the real world as to not represent any real thing.” – Richard Feynman (New Textbooks for the “New” Mathematics)
Number of the Week: Minus 89,000. Down from plus 13,442,000 b/d
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Embarrassment of Riches: This week there were several publications which need careful discussion, too much for an individual TWTW because it becomes too long and confusing. This TWTW will discuss the history of Climategate by statistician Steve McIntyre and economist Ross McKitrick. McIntyre and McKitrick broke the infamous “hockey-stick” by Mr. Mann, which was used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to erroneously claim that the globe experienced little temperature change for 900 years prior to the Industrial Revolution, starting in the late 1800s.
In “Climategate: Untangling Myth and Reality Ten Years Later,” McIntyre and McKitrick (M&M) discuss how members of the Climate Establishment have attempted to “gloss over” the deliberate efforts to mislead the public about their significant errors, therefore abusing the public trust. This is significant, because the UN is demanding a $100 billion per year in “protection payments” to stop “dangerous climate change” – all based on erroneous work that does not stand up to scrutiny. The findings of dangerous global warming from increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) are more science fiction than science.
The other important papers were a discussion of the greenhouse effect by W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer (W&H) of the CO2 Coalition in “Methane and Climate” and a paper by Richard Lindzen “On Climate Sensitivity” with assistance from Roy Spencer. These papers are based more on what is actually happening in the atmosphere than on what is speculated to be happening by the Climate Establishment and their modelers. These papers will be discussed more fully in the next TWTW.
But it is important to note at this time, that the W&H paper has already been subject to yellow journalism turned green. As discussed in last week’s TWTW, environmental (green) organizations have aligned themselves with the IPCC and are heavily supporting their goals. In short, the characteristics of yellow journalism are found in much green journalism, of which the IPCC special reports and summaries are a part. In an editorial in the once respected Science Magazine, a reporter for the green news service, E&E News, attacked the W&H paper. It is evident that the reporter and, perhaps, the editors of Science do not understand the greenhouse effect, which is the basis of the claim that CO2 is causing dangerous global warming.
It is also important to note that many types of measurements cannot be made with sufficient precision to understand or fully know many types of human and natural influences. As Roy Spencer states in his post on the atmospheric temperature record from satellites expressing that 2019 may be the third least-chilly year in the record. As Spencer wrote:
“This is fully consistent with the science, since the global energy imbalance necessary to explain recent warming (about 1 part in 250 of the natural energy flows in and out of the climate system) is much smaller than [the uncertainty of] our knowledge of those flows, either from either theoretical first principles or from observations.”
It is the presumption of knowledge by the IPCC and its modelers that may be worst abuse of the principles of the scientific method.
See links under Climategate Continued, Challenging the Orthodoxy, Measurement Issues – Atmosphere, and Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
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Climategate – A Sad Revelation: Climategate, a set of emails released beginning in late November of 2009, revealed to independent observers that Climate Science, was not necessarily science rigorously using the scientific method to objectively understand the influence of greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, on the earth’s climate. The history given by M & M is important and will be quoted extensively. Climategate revealed:
“The evidence of scientists cutting corners, playing down uncertainties in their calculations and then covering their tracks by being secretive with data and suppressing dissent suggests a systemic problem of scientific sloppiness, collusion and endemic conflicts of interest, but not of outright fraud.” p 3
At the time commentators asserted it cannot happen again.
“However, rather than confronting the corruption and misconduct apparent throughout the Climategate emails, the climate academic community shut their eyes to the affair, eventually even persuading itself that the offending scientists were victims, rather than offenders.”
“This re-framing was made possible by numerous myths propagated about the affair, of which the following were especially important:
“Myth #1: The Climategate scandal arose because ‘cherrypicked’ emails were taken ‘out of
context’.
“Myth #2: The Climategate correspondents were ‘exonerated’ following ‘thorough’ and impartial investigations.
“Myth #3: Scientific studies subsequent to Climategate have ‘confirmed’ and ‘verified’ the original Mann hockey stick.
“These are only the major myths from a veritable tsunami of disinformation from the academic community. The myths are untrue, and, in this article, we will explain why”.(pp 3 & 4)
The original tree-ring data from the Polar Ural Mountains showed a strong Medieval Warm Period, overturning published conclusions. McIntyre’s requests for the data for the new findings were “stonewalled.”
The inquiries that supposedly exonerated the researchers didn’t look at the key data. It was a “whitewash.” For example:
“…The Muir Russell panel dismissed all these concerns [regarding excluded data] on the basis that they were not published in academic journals. This was ridiculous reasoning since, first, much of the battle involved getting the journals to enforce their own data disclosure policies but this typically does not lead to an article in the journal, and second, by refusing to disclose the data Briffa was making it impossible for papers critical of his analysis from being published.”. p 5
TWTW comment: Very simply, the investigations were useless and encouraged similar behavior in the future. We are seeing such a future now, in what is termed the PAGES2K study which is claimed to support the hockey-stick version of history over the past two thousand years. As stated by M&M:
“• PAGES2K and similar studies remain primarily dependent on problematic and inconsistent tree ring data, many of which go down in the last half of the 20th century. In order to extract a Hockey Stick shape from inconsistent tree ring data, climate academics, including PAGES2K, have resorted to ad hoc methods (ex post screening, ex post orientation) which are condemned by mainstream statisticians and in statistical literature, but which enhance the hockey stickness of the resulting reconstruction. The ex post screening and manipulation even extends to data used in seemingly technical reports
“• Use of tree ring widths as a temperature proxy is made even more problematic by the impact of the extraordinary worldwide ‘greening’ during past 30 years, primarily attributed by specialists to carbon dioxide fertilization, on ring widths – an effect which is not disentangled in PAGES2K.
“• The controversial stripbark bristlecone series, relied upon by Mann et al 1998, continue to be used in PAGES2K reports, even though the 2006 NAS panel recommended that such data be ‘avoided’ in temperature reconstructions.
“• In their zeal to obtain a hockey stick, PAGES2K authors, like Mann et al 2008, have introduced sediment series without taking care to ensure a physical link, leading to a series of embarrassing gaffes arising from series contaminated by construction run-off and even used upside down [graphs].
“Ex Post Screening/Orientation of Inconsistent Tree Ring Data
Even before Climategate emails, there had been considerable controversy over Mann-style reconstructions using tree ring data.
“As early as 2006, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, an eminent scientist and now the chair of IPCC
Working Group 1, told us privately that she found persuasive our critique of multiproxy temperature reconstructions, primarily relying on tree ring data, and that, in her opinion, the only way forward for the field was the development of new and better proxies – a process that, in her opinion, could easily take 20 years. Although 14 of the 20 years have now passed, the PAGES2K multiproxy reconstructions continue to predominantly rely on tree ring data. Tree ring
chronologies made up 83% of the PAGES2K (2013 network used in IPCC AR5 (PAGES2K 2017 – 60%).
“If there were a consistent ‘signal’ in tree ring site ‘chronologies’ (ring width time series), the ‘signal’ could be easily recovered by simple averaging. But that’s not what was done in PAGES2K, which has thrashed about frenetically in the impossible task of extracting temperature estimates from inconsistent tree ring data.” pp 25 & 26
M&M discuss problems with North American Tree Ring Proxy Network,
“In other words, 85% of the ‘carefully chosen’ North American tree ring chronologies used in PAGES2K (2013) did not correlate positively with temperature, even with four chances (entire year or growing season, local or regional). Some of these series came from the sites used in the original Briffa reconstruction – with its disquieting decline in the last half of the 20th century.”
In conclusion M&M state:
“Climategate did not arise from a few emails being taken ‘out of context’. It was exactly the opposite. The emails provided behind-the-scenes and very disquieting context for troubling statistical and scientific practices which had, for the most part, already been identified by us and others in published articles in scientific journals and blogs.
“The contemporary whitewashing and ultimate sanitization by climate academics are itself an interesting and mostly untold story. Climategate exposed bad practices; the fake inquiries whitewashed them, and now the story is being retold so the villains are not only innocent but are to be embraced as heroes. It is an almost classic example of what Alexander Pope famously observed in his Essay on Man (1733) nearly three centuries ago:
“’Vice is a monster of so frightful mien
As to be hated needs but to be seen;
Yet seen too oft, familiar with her face,
We first endure, then pity, then embrace.”
Not discussed, is the great uncertainty of proxy data, it is noisy, giving many differing signals. Separating the different signals is difficult, and often misleading. Unfortunately, the public has been given impression that tree rings are precise measurements, which is not correct. We can use tree rings to discover that something happened in (say) 1200 AD. They do not tell us what happened, increasing warmth, greater moisture, or, recently, CO2 fertilization. Thus, we can have annual dates on what happened but not why.
As discussed below, it appears that the IPCC and the climate modelers will use the vice exhibited by Climategate to create even greater fears of carbon dioxide-caused warming. See links under Climategate Continued.
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The Next Generation of Fears: Writing in Carbon Brief, Zeke Hausfather, an environmental economist formerly of the Berkeley Earth project, discusses the next generation of global climate models which have an even greater estimate (guess) of the sensitivity of the globe to increasing CO2 than the current models, which greatly overestimate the warming of the atmosphere to increasing CO2. Hausfather begins impressively:
“Climate models are one of the primary means for scientists to understand how the climate has changed in the past and may change in the future. These models simulate the physics, chemistry and biology of the atmosphere, land and oceans in great detail, and require some of the largest supercomputers in the world to generate their climate projections.
“Climate models are constantly being updated, as different modelling groups around the world incorporate higher spatial resolution, new physical processes and biogeochemical cycles. These modelling groups coordinate their updates around the schedule of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, releasing a set of model results – known as ‘runs’ – in the lead-up to each one.”
Later Hausfather states:
“While the results from only around 31 CMIP6 models have been published so far, it is already evident that a number of them have a notably higher climate sensitivity than models in CMIP5. This higher sensitivity contributes to projections of greater warming this century – around 0.4C to 0.9C warmer than similar scenarios run in CMIP5 – though these warming projections may change as more models become available. Researchers are still working to assess why sensitivity values appear higher in the latest generation of models.”
But Hausfather fails to mention one critical issue needed before any of these models, or model runs, be considered as meeting the requirements of the scientific method – repeated testing against all relevant physical evidence, especially atmospheric temperature observations. Without this testing, the modelers will remain in their own special world, apart from the physical world.
Other reports indicate that the justifications for higher climate sensitivity to CO2 are coming based on PAGES2K, the new hockey-stick. If this becomes the case, then the discussion by M&M, above, is much needed and timely. The modelers will be doing little more than expanding on a myth. See links under Climategate Continued and Model Issues.
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Modelers Have It Right! The same Hausfather, as above, two researchers at MIT, and Gavin Schmidt of NASA/GISS published a paper claiming that climate models correctly describe the warming of the earth.
Greenhouse gases, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, are responsible for a rise of nearly 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit in global mean temperatures since 1880, two-thirds of that since 1975.
This may be numerically correct, assuming that greenhouse gas warming occurs on asphalt or immediately above it. They ignore the far more comprehensive atmospheric temperature observations, where the greenhouse effect occurs. With surface temperatures, they cannot separate greenhouse gas warming from increased asphalt or similar human influences. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
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COP Festivities: The 25th annual Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is scheduled to end on Friday, December 13. No doubt there will be grand announcements of what was accomplished and why it will be critical for the world to continue these events, which accomplish little of benefit to humanity. TWTW will comment after the current noise has dimmed. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy, After Paris, and Below the Bottom Line.
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Green – The New Yellow Journalism: An article in World News Daily brings four distinct periods over the past 125 years when scientists and other climate experts were predicting dangerous climate change. First was a new ice age starting in the 1890s, replaced by a warming in the 1920s, replaced by a cooling in the 1970s, and a warming in the 1980s. Now, we see articles that those predicting a dire warming are emotionally upset because others won’t believe them? They fail to give solid evidence why they should be believed. Models can be used to create predictions. It’s the testing that counts.
In a presentation to the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness, Willie Soon describes strategies used to frighten people being used by Greenpeace and other environmental groups. He gives clear examples of erroneous assertions and the considerable funds raised by false claims. Greenpeace receives over $350 million per year following a simple plan: 1) invent a problem, 2) invent a simple solution, 3) pick an enemy, and 4) dismiss alternative solutions. Of course, heavy advertising is needed to promote the program.
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Number of the Week: Minus 89,000 Down from plus 13,442,000 b/d. According to the November 29 release by the US Energy Information Administration, in August 2006 the US Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products were 13,442,000 barrels per day (b/d). In September 2019, they were minus 89,000 b/d – meaning net exports. The change has been a net 13,531,000 b/d from imports to exports. Yet, green pressure groups and politicians ignore this remarkable change and talk about the growth of wind and solar. See links under Energy Issues – US and https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=m
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
NASA’s Parker Solar Probe sheds new light on the Sun
By Sarah Frazier for GSFC News, Greenbelt MD (SPX), Dec 05, 2019
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/NASAs_Parker_Solar_Probe_sheds_new_light_on_the_Sun_999.html
Climategate Continued
Climategate: Untangling Myth and Reality 10 Years Later
Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, McKitrick’s Blog, Dec 5, 2019
https://www.rossmckitrick.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/climategate.10yearsafter.pdf
10 Years Ago Today
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Dec 4, 2019
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2019/12/04/10-years-ago-today/
Some Climategate Recollections
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Dec 2, 2019
https://www.masterresource.org/climategate/climategate-recollections/
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/publications/SeaLevelRiseCCRII.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, CO2 Coalition, Nov 22, 2019
On Climate Sensitivity
By Richard Lindzen, with Review Assistance from Roy Spencer, CO2 Coalition, 2019
http://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Lindzen_On-Climate-Sensitivity.pdf
“Not Worthy Of Any Consensus” …4 Renowned Scientists Expose Major IPCC Shortcomings: “Models Clearly Erroneous”
The Munich Climate Conference 2019
By Dr. Andreas Mueller, (Summarized by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Dec 6, 2019
“How dare you!” Will Happer “calls methane ‘irrelevant’ to climate”.
By David Middleton, WUWT, Dec 4, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/12/04/how-dare-you-will-happer-calls-methane-irrelevant-to-climate/
UN Chief Warns Global Warming ‘Point of No Return’ Is Hurtling Toward Us
By Aritz Parra & Frank Jordans, AP, Dec 2, 2019
Early climate modelers got global warming right, new report finds
By Robert Sanders, Berkeley News, Dec 4, 2019
Link to paper: Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections
By Zeke Hausfather, Henri F. Drake, Tristan Abbott, & Gavin A. Schmidt, Geophysical Research Letters, Dec 4, 2019
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL085378
[SEPP Comment: Assuming the effect of greenhouse gases occurs on asphalt.]
Climate Change Models Were Right About Global Warming 30 Years Ago – Including That of NASA Scientist James Hansen
By Rosie McCall, Newsweek, Dec 5, 2019
https://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-models-right-global-warming-1475660
COP25 really is the ‘point of no return’ in the climate emergency. Here’s why
By Ivana Kottasová, CNN, Dec 2, 2019
https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/02/world/cop25-explained-intl/
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Hausfather et al. Paper Not What It’s Cracked up to Be
By Patrick Michaels, CEI, Dec 6, 2019
https://cei.org/blog/hausfather-climate-model-paper-not-what-it%E2%80%99s-cracked-be
“The point is if you are going to adjust model output for revised science, you must adjust all the relevant variables that later science has revised. Hausfather et al. didn’t do this. If they had, it would have invalidated their result.”
[SEPP Comment: Isn’t partially right, right enough?]
Alarmist PIK Refuted, New Published Papers Call Claim Mass Migration Is Climate-Related “Misleading”…”Simplistic”
PIK under fire: Concept of a climate-caused mass migration not tenable
By Kalte Sonne (German text translated/edited by P Gosselin), Nov 30, 2019
Climate News – December 2019
By Alan Moran, Via Geoff Brown, The Australian Climate Sceptics Blog, Dec 5, 2019
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2019/12/climate-news-december-2019.html
“Australian Labor Party icon, Theo Theophanus calls for a carbon tax on pets that would raise $100 million for carbon credits in Victoria alone. No sign, however, that current MPs share such suicidal thoughts.”
Scientists: Mars Has A 95% CO2 Atmosphere…But ‘There Is Little To Retain Heat On The Planet’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 2, 2019
[Note: Left out water vapor and atmospheric pressure at the surface.]
Fighting fire with words
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 4, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/12/04/fighting-fire-with-words/
“Instead it [failure of past resolutions] triggers a curious reflex determination to make yet more promises, utter yet more warnings, issue yet more rallying cries and set even more ambitious targets than the ones nobody is meeting anyway.”
After Paris!
Madrid
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Dec 2, 2019
https://judithcurry.com/2019/12/02/madrid/#more-25458
“How have we arrived at this point? For the past three decades, the climate policy ‘cart’ has been way out in front of the scientific ‘horse’. The 1992 Climate Change treaty was signed by 190 countries before the balance of scientific evidence suggested even a discernible observed human influence on global climate. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol was implemented before we had any confidence that most of the recent warming was caused by humans. There has been tremendous political pressure on the scientists to present findings that would support these treaties, which has resulted in a drive to manufacture a scientific consensus on the dangers of manmade climate change.”
Why COP 25?
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Dec 03, 2019
https://ddears.com/2019/12/03/why-cop-25/
Climate Reality Forum from COP25
By Staff, The Heartland Institute, Dec 3
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgnnPnL9OL7EaccZkYPuPRpoNJELxU2KY
Videos of skeptics expressing their views
Climate Futility at COP 25: The China Syndrome
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Dec 5, 2019
https://www.masterresource.org/united-nations-conferences-climate/madrid-futile-crusade-china/
“As the world turns attention to the UN climate meetings this week, news from China has captured global headlines: From January 2018 to June 2019, the country added 43 gigawatts (GW) of net new coal power capacity to its existing 1,000 GW coal fleet, while the rest of the world collectively reduced coal capacity by 8 GW.”
[SEPP Comment: The importance of energy density.]
Interview: China “leading the way” in fighting climate change, says UN official
By Yuraon, Xinhua Net, Dec 4, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-12/04/c_138605191.htm
Link to Global Coal Plant Tracker, 12,648 coal-fired units
By Staff, EndCoal, Accessed Dec 4, 2019
The Paris Climate Agreement Was Doomed Even Before the United States’ Withdrawal
The U.S. was far from the worst offender against the climate agreement.
By H. Sterling Burnett, The American Spectator, Nov 30, 2019
The U.N. Is Holding Its 25th Climate Conference — Please Don’t Let There Be A 26th
Editorial, Issues and Insights, Dec 6, 2019
26,000 junkets now in Spain at the UN Climate Change COP 25. Largest delegations? Ivory Coast and Congo
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 6, 2019
Change in US Administrations
Principled Inaction in the Face of Climate Change Extremism.
President Trump’s courageous commitment to America first on the issue of energy emissions.
By Gregory Wrightstone, Human Events, Dec 2, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
https://humanevents.com/2019/12/02/principled-inaction-in-the-face-of-climate-change-extremism/
“It takes a lot of courage to do nothing.”
Senate confirms Brouillette to replace Perry as Energy secretary
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Dec 2, 2019
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
The Fortuitous Link Between CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth
The Greening of Planet Earth–Confirmed! Video Series
By Staff, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Dec 2, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/video/confirmed/gdp.php
Transcript: http://www.co2science.org/video/confirmed/gdp.pdf
Problems in the Orthodoxy
EU Climate Leadership in Doubt as Bloc Set to Miss 2030 Goal
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 4, 2019
“Both here and in the EU, the low hanging fruit has been picked, albeit at obscene cost. Phasing out of coal power, to be replaced by gas and small amounts of heavily subsidised renewables is not that clever.
“But to make the next transition is another story, involving decarbonising heat and transport, dealing with industrial emissions and running power grids with a high proportion of intermittent renewable energy.
“None of these can be achieved without radically altering citizens’ lifestyles and standards of living.”
EU crisis: Bloc admits failing at almost EVERY green goal – ‘Get our OWN house in order’
The European Union is failing at almost every one of its environmental goals, a shock study by the European Environmental Agency has warned.
By Joe Barnes, Express, UK, Dec 4, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
EU Parliament’s ‘Climate Emergency’ Will Lead to Disastrous Consequences – Former UN Expert
By Staff, Sputnik News, Dec 1, 2019
Analysis: Global fossil-fuel emissions up 0.6% in 2019 due to China
By Zeke Hausfather, Carbon Brief, Dec 4, 2019
Carbon Dioxide Emissions on Steady Upward Trend
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 4, 2019
“But, according to the UN, to keep temperature rise below 1.5C (measured from pre-industrial), emissions would need to be 55% lower than in 2018 by 2030. Clearly a drop of 5.5% a year is pie in the sky, even if emissions stopped increasing now.”
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Recent Trends in Terrestrial Gross and Net Primary Productivity
Yu, T., Sun, R., Xiao, Z., Zhang, Q., Liu, G., Cui, T. and Wang, J. 2018. Estimation of global vegetation productivity from Global Land Surface Satellite data. Remote Sensing 10: 327, doi:10.3390/rs10020327. Dec 4, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/dec/a1.php
“The above enhancements in GPP and NPP [Gross Primary Productivity & Net Primary Productivity] indicate the health of the terrestrial biosphere has been improving over time, which observation has also been noted in several other studies of the subject archived on our website under the heading Biospheric Productivity (Global: The Recent Past). The significance of such observations cannot be overstated; despite the occurrence of many real (and imagined) assaults on Earth’s vegetation over the past few years and decades, including wildfires, disease, pest outbreaks, deforestation, and supposedly unprecedented climatic changes in temperature and precipitation, global terrestrial GPP and NPP is not diminishing. And, as evidenced in several other studies of the subject (see the reviews posted here), it increase or improvement is primarily caused by growth-related benefits associated with earth’s rising atmospheric CO2 concentration.”
Model Issues
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained
By Zeke Hausfather, Carbon Brief, Dec 12, 2019
Measurement Issues — Surface
New Video : Rewriting History, One State At A Time
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Dec 4, 2019
https://realclimatescience.com/2019/12/new-video-rewriting-history-one-state-at-a-time/
Questioning the verification for Colorado’s new hottest day.
The Mysterious Warmth at Mackay
By Michael Chase, WUWT, Dec 6, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/12/06/the-mysterious-warmth-at-mackay/
Seal takes ocean heat transport data to new depths
By Esprit Smith, NASA’s Earth Science News team, Pasadena CA (JPL) Dec 05, 2019
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Seal_takes_ocean_heat_transport_data_to_new_depths_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Years ago, many in the public were outraged when it was revealed that the US Navy was considering using dolphins to track submarines.]
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for November 2019: +0.55 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Dec 2, 2019
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/12/uah-global-temperature-update-for-november-2019-0-55-deg-c/
Links to map and graph: Global Temperature Report
By Staff, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, November 2019
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2019/NOVEMBER2019/201911_map.png
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2019/NOVEMBER2019/tlt_201911_bar.png
2019 the Third Least-Chilly in the Satellite Temperature Record
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Dec 6, 2019
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/12/2019-the-third-least-chilly-in-the-satellite-temperature-record/
Changing Weather
Atmospheric rivers cost American West $1 billion a year in flood damage
By Brooks Hays, Washington (UPI) Dec 5, 2019
“’This is a reminder that weather and climate matter,’ [researcher Corringham said. ‘Every step we take now to stabilize the global climate system stands to reduce future adverse impacts on our economy.’”
[SEPP Comment: Would CO2 control have stopped the heavy rains of 1850, 1861 & 62, and 1880? According to contemporary accounts, the native Indians knew what was coming.]
Early snow cover record set for USA – a foot of snow in 25 states!
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 3, 2019
[SEPP Comment: New Ipswich, in southern New Hampshire, got three feet!]
A Wet Autumn For South Yorkshire
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 6, 2019
The Most Boring Late Fall in Years
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Dec 4, 2019
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-most-boring-late-fall-in-years.html
Changing Climate
Climate Emergency Tour: Interglacial Edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 4, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/12/04/climate-emergency-tour-interglacial-edition/
“By the alarmist’s reasoning the previous four interglacials had to have been non-stop emergencies, since they averaged 1-3 degrees warmer than the current one.”
McGill-led research unravels mystery of how early animals survived ice age
By Staff Writers, Montreal, Canada (SPX) Dec 03, 2019
Link to paper: Subglacial meltwater supported aerobic marine habitats during Snowball Earth
By Maxwell A. Lechte, PNAS, Dec 2, 2019
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/11/26/1909165116
Changing Seas
NASA, French Space Laser Measures Massive Migration of Ocean Animals
By Staff, NASA Global Climate Change, Accessed Dec 6 [H/t WUWT]
Dead woman tells a tale
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 4, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/12/04/dead-woman-tells-a-tale/
New maps of salinity reveal the impact of climate variability on oceans
By Staff Writers, Paris (ESA), Dec 03, 2019
Link to abstract: ESA Sea Surface Salinity Climate Change Initiative (Sea_Surface_Salinity_cci): Version 1.8 data collection
Press Release, CEDA, Accessed Dec 5, 2019
https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/9ef0ebf847564c2eabe62cac4899ec41
Cartology Affirms Relative Sea Levels Were Similar To Or HIGHER Than Now During The Little Ice Age
By Kenneth Richards, No Tricks Zone, Dec 5, 2019
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
In the Arctic, warming means cooling
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 4, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/12/04/in-the-arctic-warming-means-cooling/
Ryrkaypiy ‘over-run’ by >50 polar bears is probably due to more Chukchi Sea bears
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Dec 5, 2019
[SEPP Comment: And the fat on the bears “proves” they are starving.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
GM Crops Like Golden Rice Will Save the Lives of Hundreds of Thousands of Children
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Dec 1, 2019
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/gm-crops/
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Grid reliability under climate change may require more power generation capacity
New study reveals the importance of climate-water impacts in electric grid planning
Press Release, NSF, Dec 2, 2019
https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=299645&WT.mc_id=USNSF_1
[SEPP Comment: If you believe the results of poorly tested models.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
In unpublished paper, former White House climate adviser calls methane ‘irrelevant’ to climate
By Scott Waldman, E & E News, Via Science Mag. Nov 27, 2019
How Wrong Can One Article Be?
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Dec 6, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/12/06/how-wrong-can-one-article-be/
The Democratic Party’s ultimate coup d’etat
David Kupelian on how leftists’ ‘solutions’ to climate catastrophe are actually their ‘atomic bomb’ for destroying capitalism
By David Kupelian, WND, Dec 1, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Convincing Frozen People They Are Burning Up
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Dec 4, 2019
https://realclimatescience.com/2019/12/convincing-frozen-people-they-are-burning-up/
David Attenborough Accused Of Misleading Public About Polar Bears, Again
Release, Global Warming Policy Foundation, Dec 2, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/david-attenborough-accused-of-misleading-public-about-polar-bears-again/
Blaming Climate Change: Bogus Wildlife Videos
Nature videos from National Geographic, Netflix, and the BBC can’t be trusted.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Dec 2, 2019
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2019/12/02/blaming-climate-change-bogus-wildlife-videos/
Claim: Climate Change Causes Premature Births
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 2, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/12/02/claim-climate-change-causes-premature-babies/
Link to paper: The impact of high ambient temperatures on delivery timing and gestational lengths
By Alan Barreca and Jessamyn Schaller, Nature Climate Change, Dec 2, 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0632-4
[SEPP Comment: Humans evolved in the tropics, therefore warmth is harmful to them?]
The science is rubbish
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 4, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/12/04/the-science-is-rubbish/
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Sherelle Jacobs: The UN’s ‘Woke’ Climate Propaganda Is An Insult To Science
By Sherelle Jacobs, The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Dec 3, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/sherelle-jacobs-the-uns-woke-climate-propaganda-is-an-insult-to-science/
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
New Video: ‘UN Fundraising By Frightening Children,
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Dec 5, 2019
https://realclimatescience.com/2019/12/new-video-un-fundraising-by-frightening-children/
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
British yacht skipper, 26, wiped out the carbon emissions saved by Greta Thunberg’s sail across the Atlantic by flying out to the US to help her
By Jemma Carr, Daily Mail, Dec 2, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
John Kerry launches ‘World War Zero’ climate activism coalition
By Marty Johnson, The Hill, Nov 30, 2019
John Kerry Recruits Bill Clinton, Leonardo Dicaprio for New Climate Coalition
By Joshua Caplin, Breitbart, Nov 30, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Previously, Kerry declared climate change is simple physics. Radiative transfer is simple physics? Does he, or his recruits, know the types of mathematics required to describe this “simple physics”?]
Kerry: Fight against climate change should be treated like a ‘war’
By Rebecca Klar, The Hill, Dec 1, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Like Vietnam, with which he made his political fame by speaking against it and insulting honorable soldiers?]
Bank of England Mark Carney to Head a UN Climate Action Effort
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 1, 2019
Mason scientist develops game to arm users against climate change ‘fake news’
New game builds resilience against misinformation; ‘inoculates’ users against fake news on climate change; gamifies critical thinking
Press Release, George Mason University, Dec 3, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-12/gmu-msd120319.php
[SEPP Comment: The “Mason scientist” is an expert on the subject, especially fake polling such as his 97%.]
Questioning European Green
Even Faster, More Powerful Than Climate Change… Europe’s Movement To Ecological Tyranny Emerging Rapidly
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 4, 2019
Next week, Czech PM plans to block the EU gretin plans
By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, Dec 5, 2019
https://motls.blogspot.com/2019/12/next-week-czech-pm-plans-to-block-eu.html#more
The plot against fracking
How cheap energy was killed by Green lies and Russian propaganda [in UK]
By Matt Ridley, The Critic, UK, Dec 2019
https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/december-2019/the-plot-against-fracking/
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Good Sense Sold Up the River
By Alan Moran, Quadrant, Dec 6, 2019
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2019/12/good-sense-sold-up-the-river/
You had me at 210
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 4, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/12/04/you-had-me-at-210/
Link to report: Bridging the Gap: Real Options for Meeting Canada’s 2020 GHG Target
By Chris Ragan, et al., Canada’s Ecofiscal Commission (a private group), November 2019
Funding Issues
U.N. Cries Poor [Again]: Issues Unprecedented $29 Billion Emergency Funding Appeal
By Simon Kent, Breitbart, Dec 4, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
The Political Games Continue
Are Climate, Energy, Enviro Justice for the Left Only?
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Dec 2, 2019
https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/ipcc-creighton-warren-green/2019/12/02/id/944090/
Climate Litigation and Politics 2020: A Tale of Two Media Blackouts
By Kevin Kirchner, Climate Litigation Watch, Dec 4, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
“As CNBC put it, ‘Bloomberg News will not investigate Mike Bloomberg or his Democratic rivals during primary’.”
“This means that only one presidential candidate will be subject to Bloomberg News ‘investigative journalism’.”
Pelosi: Congress has ‘iron-clad’ commitment to climate crisis
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Dec 2, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Even though the Senate has not approved the Paris Agreement as a treaty?]
Democrats fly to Madrid to conceal Paris Agreement’s colossal failure from Americans
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Dec 3, 2019
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Natural gas companies call for carbon tax
By James Osborne, Houston Chronicle, Dec 4, 2019
“The Natural Gas Supply Association said it is not yet lobbying for any one specific proposal, but broadly supports putting a price on carbon while also eliminating existing regulations on carbon and delivering revenues not to government but directly to American consumers.”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
The “Everybody Gets a Car!” Act
By Kenny Stein, American Energy Alliance, Nov 26, 2019
https://www.americanenergyalliance.org/2019/11/the-everybody-gets-a-car-act/
Wind and Solar Tax Credits: Special Interest Subsidies
By Marlo Lewis, CEI, Dec 6, 2019
https://cei.org/blog/wind-and-solar-tax-credits-special-interest-subsidies
Energy Issues – Non-US
Some Facts About Energy
By Wallace Manheimer, WUWT, Dec 5, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/12/05/some-facts-about-energy/
Green Energy Catastrophe: Zimbabwe ‘Turning Into A Desert’ As Poor Cut Down Forests For Fuel
By Staff, The Times, Nov 30, 2019
Russia’s $400 Billion Pipeline Project Launches Today
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Dec 2, 2019
“The presidents of Russia and China will today officially inaugurate the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline that will eventually deliver 38 billion cubic meters annually to China, with the full capacity to be reached some time in 2025.”
[SEPP Comment: The construction took $55 billion, the balance is the calculated worth of the project, including delivery of gas. This gives Russia a source of revenues if it decides to cut off Europe to apply political pressure.]
Russia cements role as gas ‘kingpin’ with three new pipelines
By Staff, EURACTIV.com with AFP, Dec 2, 2019
Is coal power winning the US-China trade war?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 1, 2019
“Although China is under international pressure to increase its climate ambition in 2020 and accelerate its energy transition, Chinese policymakers still see coal as the bedrock of the country’s energy security, playing a major role in the 14th Five Year Plan.”
Energy Issues – Australia
Jeopardy: What happens when your single largest generator is uncontrolled and coordinated by clouds? Watch Western Australia
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 1, 2019
The Next Shale Oil Battle
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Dec 6, 2019
https://ddears.com/2019/12/06/the-next-shale-oil-battle/
Link to paper: Sustainable Produced Water Policy, Regulatory Framework, and Management in the Texas oil and Natural Gas Industry: 2019 and Beyond
By John Tintera, et al., Texas Alliance of Energy Producers, 2019
Contrast Of Climate And Energy Policies, And Economic Results, In The U.S. And Germany
By Franics Mention, Manhattan Contrarian, Dec 6, 2019
Return of King Coal?
In China, coal creeps back in as slowing economy overshadows climate change ambitions
By David Stanway, Reuters, Dec 2, 2019
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Germany is closing all its nuclear power plants. Now it must find a place to bury the deadly waste for 1 million years
By Sheena McKenzie, CNN, Nov 30, 2019
https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/30/europe/germany-nuclear-waste-grm-intl/index.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Renewables Can’t Offset Growing Need For Fossil Fuels
Editorial, Mining.com Via Oil Price.com, Dec 4, 2019 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
The Limits of Clean Energy
If the world isn’t careful, renewable energy could become as destructive as fossil fuels.
By Jason Hinckel, Foreign Policy Sep 6, 2019
Link to report: The Growing Role of Minerals and Metals for a Low Carbon Future (English)
By Arrobas, Daniele, et al. World Bank, June 30, 2017
Renewables are not making electricity any more expensive
Wholesale prices are dropping, though mostly due to natural gas.
By John Timmer, ARS Technica, Nov 21, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Apparently the author believes reliability has no value or cost.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Playin’ By The Rules – Regulations Spark A Bevy Of U.S. Renewable Diesel Projects
By Amy Kalt, RBN Energy, Dec 5, 2019
https://rbnenergy.com/playin-by-the-rules-regulations-spark-a-bevy-of-us-renewable-diesel-projects
[SEPP Comment: The link may be paywalled.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
The half-mile electric car charging queue in the US
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 6, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/12/the-half-mile-car-charging-queue-in-the-us/
“Looks like Tesla owners need a back-up ‘baseload’ type car in the garage all year to be able to enjoy those special days. There go those fuel savings.”
California Dreaming
Why Worse Wildfires, part 2
By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Dec 4, 2019
http://landscapesandcycles.net/why-worse-wildfires-part-2.html
California Farmer Fights Government Claim That Dirt Is a Pollutant
By Kevin Mooney, The Daily Signal, Dec 3, 2019
Health, Energy, and Climate
Study shows link between precipitation, climate zone and invasive cancer rates in the US
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Dec 3, 2019
Oh Mann!
Hide the Decline
Video By Staff, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 4, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/
Environmental Industry
All Green Cash and Not Very Peaceful: Endless Dirty Tricks and Hidden Secrets of Greenpeace
By Willie Soon, DDP Conference, July 20, 2019, Video Nov 29, 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdvM2qpffwg&feature=youtu.be
“Green Groups at COP 25 Warn Against Market-Driven Solutions to Climate Emergency”
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Dec 4, 2019
https://www.masterresource.org/climate-policy/cop-25-vs-market-driven-co2-control/
Other Scientific News
How ancient microbes created massive ore deposits, set the stage for early life on Earth
By Staff Writers, Vancouver, Canada (SPX), Dec 03, 2019
Photoferrotrophy, deposition of banded iron formations, and methane production in Archean oceans
By Katharine J. Thompson, et al. Science Advances, Nov 27, 2019
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/11/eaav2869
Other News that May Be of Interest
Fraud in Higher Education
By Walter E. Williams, The Daily Signal, Dec 4, 2019
The Stanford Paradox: An Oasis Of Scientific Achievement In A Desert Of Political Correctness
By Henry Miller, Issues & Insights, Dec 3, 2019
“The day after the November 2016 general election, for example, Stanford’s president sent an email to all faculty, students, and employees, asserting that there was widespread shock, anger, and fear following the election of President Donald Trump. He promised that there would be “safe spaces” and counseling available at various places on campus.”
[SEPP Comment: Stanford’s president expressing teen-age angst – fear and anxiety.]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
The Emotional Toll of Climate Change on Science Professionals
Earth scientists and communicators dealing with or studying climate change face many potential stressors. They need support and resources to maintain and improve their emotional well-being.
By Daniel Gilford, Susanne Moser, Becky DePodwin, Rebecca Moulton, and Sarah Watson, EOS, Earth & Space Science News, Dec 6, 2019 [H/t Mark Albright]
https://eos.org/features/the-emotional-toll-of-climate-change-on-science-professionals
An anti-climatic response to #okboomer and #COP25
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 2, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/12/02/an-anti-climatic-response-to-okboomer-and-cop25/
Oxford Word of the Year: “Climate Emergency”… Seriously?
By David Middleton, WUWT, Dec 3, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/12/03/oxford-word-of-the-year-climate-emergency-seriously/
Panic At The UN
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 4, 2019
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/12/04/panic-at-the-un/
Humorous Video
Will Greta Go By Donkey?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 6, 2019
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/12/05/will-greta-go-by-donkey/
“The generous offer comes from the Association of Neighbors in Toledo.”
“As the Association point out:‘Our ancestors have used it and it has been the most environmentally friendly in human displacement.””
ARTICLES
1. Requiem for a Climate Dream
If the world isn’t slashing CO2, blame overreaction to the Fukushima disaster.
By Holman Jenkins, WSJ, Dec 3, 2019
https://www.wsj.com/articles/requiem-for-a-climate-dream-11575417278?mod=opinion_featst_pos1
TWTW SUMMARY: The journalist writes:
“Rigor could be restored to mainstream climate journalism with a single clause. That clause consists of the words ‘if climate models are accurate.’
“A United Nations study issued in advance of this week’s climate summit in Madrid would appear in a different light, though still worrisome, and still a challenge to policy makers, if it were reported as saying: To avoid any chance of a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius, annual emissions cuts of 7.6% must begin next year if computerized climate simulations are correct.
“Such simulations, we should admit, are science. Their findings represent a legitimate pursuit of knowledge. The common failing in the media involves leaving out the necessary caveats. Such carelessness has ultimately enabled a new kind of science denial on the left, where advocates like Greta Thunberg and the U.K. group Extinction Rebellion increasingly talk about climate change leading to a human demise that is nowhere supported in the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or other scientific bodies.
“In my view, Al Gore bears heavy responsibility here. Name any important policy commitment in history—whether Social Security or Medicare or even fighting World War II—that required that all debate be silenced and all skeptics vilified before it could proceed. The Gore formula is good for stoking tribalism. It’s not good for making policy progress in a democracy. And so it has proved. Nobody remotely believes the supposedly necessary emissions cuts will take place. The only response left to the climate crowd is to ratchet up even more dire predictions.
“Let’s start over. If stated properly, the ‘scientific consensus’ would run as follows: climate models teach us to expect some warming from human-caused atmospheric CO2 increases, but disagree about how much. It’s hard to make cost-benefit judgments on such a basis, but happily the Green New Deal makes it easy—it would cost a lot of money and accomplish nothing since U.S. emissions are just 14% of the total and shrinking. India and China, not the U.S., will determine the fate of climate change.
“Cost-benefit analysis also tells us a bunch of things that might be worth doing even in light of the uncertainties. A tax reform based on a revenue-neutral carbon tax could make our tax system more efficient and pro-growth. Government investment in basic research tends to have a high payoff, and battery research is a particularly attractive opportunity. Rethinking nuclear power and regulation is another area of huge potential. Safer and cheaper nuclear technologies continue to advance on the drawing board even in today’s inhospitable political environment.
“And guess what? All the above would be easier to sell to other countries than Green New Deal masochism. Voters would readily gobble up new energy technologies and tax models that would make their societies richer and stronger.
“In honor of this week’s global climate gathering in Madrid, the New York Times aptly refers to the ‘gap between reality and diplomacy.’ International agreements, by their nature, are designed to put an imprimatur on what domestic politicians would do anyway, and that doesn’t include prematurely ending their careers by imposing on consumers the kind of crushing burdens the green left seeks.
“Look elsewhere for the turning points that actually matter. If climate change proves as severe as some scientists believe, the most damning moment will be one that passed largely unremarked except in this column: the Fukushima nuclear reactor meltdown after Japan’s 2011 earthquake and tsunami. Under Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany, the world’s sixth biggest emitter, chaotically and thoughtlessly announced within weeks that it would close all 17 of its nuclear plants. China and India, then pursuing ambitious nuclear expansions that should have become more ambitious, instead recommitted themselves to burning vast amounts of coal.
Jenkins concludes that countries cannot turn to nuclear due to the fears instilled by yellow (green) journalism following the Fukushima disaster. In the view of TWTW, he misses the importance of hydraulic fracturing, particularly in the US, and the fears instilled by yellow (green) journalism for the development of other sources of oil and gas.
**************
2. PG&E Had Systemic Problems With Power Line Maintenance, California Probe Finds
An investigation by state’s utilities commission concludes company failed to properly inspect and maintain transmission lines for years
By Russell Gold and Katherine Blunt, WSJ, Dec 2, 2019
TWTW SUMMARY: The reporters begin by stating:
PG&E Corp. failed to adequately inspect and maintain its transmission lines for years before a faulty line started the deadliest fire in California history, a state investigation has found.
“In a 700-page report detailing the problems that led the Caribou-Palermo transmission line to malfunction on Nov. 8, 2018, sparking the Camp Fire, investigators with the California Public Utilities Commission said they found systemic problems with how the company oversaw the safety of its oldest lines.
“State fire investigators had previously determined that PG&E equipment started the Camp Fire, which killed 85 people, and the company hasn’t disputed the findings. But the new report goes well beyond earlier findings, alleging numerous serious violations of state rules for maintaining electric lines and specific problems with upkeep of the transmission line that started the fire.
“The investigation’s conclusions corroborate many of the findings of previous Wall Street Journal articles, which found that PG&E deferred maintenance work on the Caribou-Palermo transmission line, along with numerous other older transmission lines.”
The article goes through detail in passing blame but does not identify who is ultimately responsible. As discussed in the November 16 TWTW, the Constitution of the State of California clearly assigns accountability and responsibility to the state government, namely the State Legislature. Section 3 of Article 12, the Public Utilities Section of the Constitution.
“Al Gore bears heavy responsibility here”
Please show some respect for Nobel Laureates and be kind. Thanks.
https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/31/a-nobel-prize-for-service-to-humanity/
In planning how to make best use of resources, particularly in regard to replacement of equipment or in changing industrial and manufacturing processes, one has to consider the do nothing option, or else risk a flawed analysis. Sometimes do nothing is the sensible approach. Even the adage first do no harm advises so.
Kevin,
Your philosophy could be aptly applied to a great many situations.
“It is fascinating to watch politicians come up with ‘solutions’ to problems that are a direct result of their previous solutions. In many cases, the most efficient thing to do would be to repeal their previous solution and stop being so gung-ho for creating new solutions in the future. But, politically, that is the last thing they will do.” Thomas Sowell
The McKittrick /McIntyre report on the effects of ClimateGate 10 years later is absolutely brilliant. Everyone who thinks ClimateGate is a “nothing burger” should definitely read it. And for anyone who already thinks ClimateGate exposed some of the worst examples of self-serving and scientific malpractice by the scientists and a biased-to-the-point-of-impeachment behavior by public officials, it’s a (pedantic, freedom loving, science loving nerd’s idea of a) rollicking good time. Some of the references led me back to forgotten articles at Climate Audit and their comment threads, which were some of the best public feedback on climate science in the world, in my opinion. Very few trolls, many serious, credible people aghast at what so-called academics and the bureaucrats who funded and supported them were up to. WUWT, JoNova, and a few other sites are the only media outlets in the world today where one can find similar “news” with a minimum of hysteria, and an appropriate level of righteous indignation over what public officials are doing with our tax dollars.
Regarding Mann and his infamous tree rings.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Priceless ClimateGate email 682: Tom Wigley tells Michael Mann that his son did a tree ring science fair project (using trees behind NCAR) that invalidated the centerpiece of Mann’s work
http://bit.ly/2N5HLJm
“……At 10:03 PM 6/5/2003 -0600, Tom Wigley wrote:Mike, Well put! By chance SB03 [Soon and Baliunas] may have got some of these precip things right, but we don’t want to give them any way to claim credit. Also, stationarity is the key. Let me tell you a story. A few years back, my son Eirik did a tree ring science fair project using trees behind NCAR. He found that widths correlated with both temp and precip. However, temp and precip also correlate. There is much other evidence that it is precip that is the driver, and that the temp/width correlation arises via the temp/precip correlation. Interestingly, the temp correlations are much more ephemeral, so the complexities conspire to make this linkage nonstationary. I have not seen any papers in the literature demonstrating this — but, as you point out Mike, it is a crucial issue. Tom.”
Hilarious. Irony lost on some.
This weekly roundup is probably the most important webpage of wattsupwiththat, but it’s too packed with info to be digested and commented upon by most readers of this blog, which is a pity. I like to go through it but I wish there were some kind of indexing so that one could refer to it when needed.
“I like to go through it but I wish there were some kind of indexing so that one could refer to it when needed.”
I AGREE, Michael!
Greenpeace budget is $10 million per year in the U.S.
Saaaaay. Just a thought. Climate change is the numero uno crises facing the earth, right? So why doesn’t Greenpeace fire almost all their staff, zero out almost everything, and devote every dime of that money to fighting climate change? A 1 MW solar farm costs roughly $1 million to install. You could be installing an additional 10 MW each year. Just give the installation away, for free to any local utility just for donating the land. That would sure make solar cheap.
A fast charger for EVs costs around $10k to install. You could install 1,000 per year for your budget. imagine how much that would encourage EV adoption? You could just donate the stations to whoever seems appropriate most department stores would be thrilled to add chargers for free. Maybe the city where they are in? Could be a nice money maker.
I can think of all sorts of worthy ways to spend $10 million each year to fight climate change. Lobbying governments ain’t one of them.
There IS a filing system, “wish there were some kind of indexing” –
“This TWTW will discuss the history of Climategate”.
Decide if you’re interested in NOW. And choose YOUR links.
“Embarrassment of Riches: This week there were several publications which need careful discussion, too much for an individual TWTW because it becomes too long and confusing. This TWTW will discuss the history of Climategate by statistician Steve McIntyre and economist Ross McKitrick. McIntyre and McKitrick broke the infamous “hockey-stick” by Mr. Mann, which was used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to erroneously claim that the globe experienced little temperature change for 900 years prior to the Industrial Revolution, starting in the late 1800s.”