I am headed over to COP25 in Madrid. I’ll be making reports as I can and posting reports of others who are there with Heartland.
This is my first ever conference…it will be interesting to see the alarmism and largesse in action.
There will be a live stream video on Tuesday and I’ll post details links as soon as I can.
More later -Anthony
Hi Anthony,
Here are the events I will be speaking at:
Tuesday 3rd Dec
15.00- 16.30. Room 6 What if we miss the target? Africa, South America and South Asia beyond 1.5°C.
Weds 4th Dec
1000-1115 – UK Pavilion – How is the UK building the evidence for a climate resilient future?
Friday 6th Dec
1430-1545 – UK Pavilion – What are the key climate ‘tipping points’ and how can we avoid them?
Come and say hello!
Richard
By what mechanism would tipping points be triggered in the present warming when they weren’t during recent warmer periods, e.g. Roman and Minoan periods?
Do targets lower than natural variability even make sense?
(How is James Lovelock doing?)
Climate Tipping points occur regularly.
Nature gives 4 climate tipping points every year to many climates around the world – we call them seasons.
Nature gives 2 climate tipping points every day to most places on Earth – we call them sunrise and sunset.
Nature builds in resilience to Climate change all by itself. Delta CO2 not required.
I just removed 2 feet of tipping point from my driveway. White Christmas, my aunt Fanny.
Give it few minutes it will melt by itself
“Global heating is technically more correct because we are talking about changes in the energy balance of the planet ….. I’ve been in this for 25 years. I hoped we’d be beyond here by now.” – Richard Betts
Your snow removal efforts are an adaptation strategy that allows you to occupy that environmental niche thru the winter season. Snow-birds have learned a migration strategy.
And if you used a fossil fuel power snow blower, that’s even more so on the adaptation to that TP.
I exceeded a tipping point in a canoe once, and the girl with me was as upset as Greta. Makes me an expert, I guess?
I exceeded a canoe tipping point with my Father in the canoe…
After he finished yelling, he started laughing. He thought it was funny long after we tied the canoe back on the car and headed for home.
A few years later we competed in a series of canoe races. Tipping canoes was expected as part of the course run. Easy peasy!
Snow-birds are climate refuges …twice a year.
Careful where you place it or Tipping Point could become Tripping Point
The seasons are not irreversible. Winter/summer weather more or less cycles back and forth.
I think Richard Betts is referring to irreversible tipping points in which feedbacks lead to rapid and out of control temperature increases and related effects.
My question relates to the fact that these have not been observed previously, even when temperatures (and CO2 in distance past) were higher.
✂️,
You mean like the Malinkovitch cycles? Nature adapts to those as well. Homo sapiens became resilient, adaptable, and highly mobile in the face of Glacial-Interglacial cycling.
Nassim Teleb refers to this kind of stressing as anti-fragile. Anti-fragile is a concept beyond resilience. It means stressors make the system stronger, more resilient, more adaptable.
I know of two things in nature that are irreversible.
– Entropy of the universe.
– Biological death of a living organism.
In physics and biology I trust.
Climate Science… not so much. And anything else that has become corrupted by politics.
Don’t forget about taxes.
Joel O’Brien – Are you really sure that Entropy of the Universe is irreversible? What if the Big Bang is one of a series?
“Definition of irreversible:
irreversible adjective ir·re·vers·ible | \ ˌir-i-ˈvər-sə-bəl \
Definition of irreversible
: not reversible”
“The seasons are not irreversible”; substitute the definition for the word in the sentence: “The seasons are not not reversible”.
Which indicates that ‘Scissor’ believes seasons are reversible.
Do tell.
ATheoK, the discussion concerned tipping points which supposedly lead to irreversible runaway warming. The seasons oscillate back and forth.
may the Farce be with you, Richard !!
Richard Betts
So Tuesday is explaining to our African, South American and South Asian brothers why it is that they have to remain literally benighted whilst China can burn as much coal and gas as they can get hold of. Without a murmur of criticism from anyone.
Wednesday brings some truly expert advice about “building” evidence. Well the MET, CRU, Tyndale etc. are world renouned at that.
Then Friday comes, a few hints about how to avoid the Tipping Points consequences when the public realise that your fellow ‘Climate Psyentists’ have set out to destroy the West with solutions that don’t work to problems that are either grossly exaggerated or don’t actually exist.
Should be fun.
Anthony, have a great time and keep safe.
If you shake hands with any of these people, count your fingers afterwards
Keeping in mind that UNFCCC heads, along with many others have declared that the real reason for proclaiming various climate dooms is to rework world governments into unelected socialist tyrannies.
Richard, you must be aware that CO2 global warming or not, we are going to go ahead and carry out this CO2 experiment with Asia and Africa building tens of thousands of coal fired plants. Even Germany is going to be burning Russian Gas and more of their own coal.
Europe can cut their ‘C’ to zero and yet we will, come hell or highwater, double pre industrial CO2 and more before 2100. We are going to know exactly what ECS is. Your work, the IPCC and the consensus and its alarms and policy ideas are now moot and academic.
I’m looking forward to the great experiment. All indications since ~2000 are that we will have a “Garden of Eden Earth” with bumper harvests and global prosperity, and dare I suggest, global peace all dovetailing with peak population. I don’t believe you have considered this possibility in your own legacy and what part you played. It will be written down one day.
You’ll be easy to recognise, you’ll be the third clown on the left.
Hey, Richard. Been a while since I’ve seen you here. Good luck with your talks.
Are you flying or sailing to Madrid?
Try to get Gretta’s autograph!
Neither, Antony is going by weather balloon./SARC
Sorry Anthony, I could not resist that one 🙂
Whichever way I hope he took a lot of tissues because there is going to be plenty of crying from the lefties.
Safe journey. I’d say you’ll beat Whats-Her-Name to the conference.
Enjoy! At least your use of evil air travel won’t be hypocritical. Can’t say the same for for the Green Lemmings, the ones that don’t get there by rowboat.
Assuming one has to go to Spain, Anthony’s personal share of the airliner’s fuel has a bit less carbon footprint than say the personal carbon footprint of say Christopher Columbus for ship provisioning…..
Have fun, and give my greetings to Greta. Remember, this is a gathering for fun. It only pretends to be serious.
Good luck and safe travels.
Have fun, Anthony, and be safe.
Sincerely,
Bob
Have a great trip!
Is the world ready to end the coal era and embrace clean energy?
https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/11/1052271
29 November, 2019
Excerpts:
The UN is ramping up pressure on countries to end their reliance on coal, with Secretary-General António Guterres unambiguously spelling out the Organization’s position in his recent declarations.
The UN chief has called for taxes to be placed on carbon emissions, an end to the trillions of dollars’ worth of estimated subsidies for fossil fuels, and for the construction of coal-fired power stations to be halted by 2020, if we are to stand a chance of ending the climate crisis.
1. If there were a “Climate Crisis” the draconian means you outline for developed countries would not “end it” (using UN assumptions and agreements in the calculations).
2. No one has shown that the possible net impact of increased CO2 is a “crisis”, let alone something not beneficial (e.g. another climate optimum).
3. There must be a rational economist within the vast UN structure who can explain the difference between subsidies and normal tax depreciation expenses.
Exactly, what climate crisis was also my thought 2 articles back.
Here’s what I found.
Climate Data API
https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/902061-climate-data-api
The Climate Data API provides programmatic access to most of the climate data used on the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Web developers can use this API to access the knowledge portal’s data in real time to support their own applications, so long as they abide by the World Bank’s Terms of Use.
The World Bank has consolidated data from 15 GCMs to deliver a projection of temp. and moisture by country or basin to 2100.
Pick a country or river basin and you can see the GCM projections.
Here’s an example of how The Climate Data API can be used and or abused. The API could be used on WUWT in numerous positive ways.
Climate Change effects by country
https://climarisk.com/climate-change-effects-by-country/#ccg
“trillions of Dollars worth of estimated subsidies for fossil fuels”?- – -Maybe you should prove that assertion, John- – –
Excellent request leo belill!
It’s a quote from the UN news release link.
I agree, trillions in subsidies is absurd.
Fossil fuel subsidies.!! These are tax deductions for expenditure and development costs available to every business. Lets not lose sight of the diections of cash flows vis à vis governments. Governments receive tax revenues of 100s of billions from
oil and gas companies. The renoubles get enforced collection of money from reluctant customers that is two to three times what they would otherwise pay for power, plus the government also pays huge subsidies to renoubles also extracted from the same customers as taxes, plus carbon taxes paid in top of everything else – food, transportation, shelter, heating, cooling, plus more rip-off of taxpayers money to pay for well-to-dos subsidies on electrical vehicles that few can afford to buy.
I’m sure readers could add to the list of payment burdens to the growing ranks of the poor . Gîlets Jaunes, farmers in EU, the urban poor in Chile, Peru, Columbia and Ecuador (the list is still growing) are at last saying enough is enough.
Be safe. Please note how many “delegates” from poor countries attend meetings after they have received their stipends from the UN and/or EU.
I urge Trump to deny Pelosi from using government planes to go to the conference. He could say he is doing it to help save the planet.
Make them walk to save the planet!
“The United States will continue to participate in ongoing climate change negotiations and meetings — such as COP25 — to ensure a level playing field that protects US interests,” the US State Department said Saturday.
The US team will be headed by ambassador Marcia Bernicat, principal deputy assistant secretary of state for oceans and international environmental and scientific affairs.
Doing a quick search of her shows she is no better or worse than most career Diplomatic Corps members. Could not find if she is a believer in the religion of Man Caused Globall Warmining, her major education being focused on history and business we can only hope she is not stabbing America in the back during all this nonsense.
Makes no difference, neither she, nor Nancy, have the power to negotiate anything for the United States unless President Trump gives them authority to do so. And I doubt that he has done so.
They won’t have to do much China already has article 6 on it’s hit list to slice and dice because it violates it’s sovereignty.
“What if we miss the target? Africa, South America and South Asia beyond 1.5°C”
What about Nort Europe, Nort America and most of higher latitudes of the northern Hemisphere if the sun goes to a long Maunder type minimum? Solar and wind can’t keep warm millions of people.
We have another near zero sunspot count for November (0.5 SIDC, 0.3 Wolf); one more month with similar SSN count will make the current minimum deeper than the last one which was deepest for a century (see the lower graph here ) . The sun already had about 240 blank days this year and there is no sign of any sudden change in the current trend.
Some of the earliest predictions of 40-70 years of Global Cooling came from Russian and Chinese scientists.
I wonder what portion of China’s rent-and-purchase of African lands is based on hedging the bet of continued warming?
They already owe half of Australia, ask Eric Worrall 🙂
More SC25 ARs/spots likely in the solar SH will appear around 14-16 December (2 weeks) and persist for several Carrington rotations. SC25 will likely start picking up after that. I’m still in for a ~Jan 2020 SC25 start.
I’m not too sure about that, but if it does happen it would be remarkable, indeed, as that is what the SC23 did at this stage of the cycle.
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/SSN.htm (see lower graph)
If so, it appears that the sun suddenly has developed 10.4 year memory or, at least at this time, solar minimum has fallen under spell of the sun’s satellites.
p.s. my previous comment is somewhat ‘h’ deficient, so it was kind not to bring it to the wider public knowledge.
Yeah vukcevic, like the ‘wider public’ would understand the technical side of your conversation anyway.
Maybe now that you’ve piqued our interest you could say it in layman’s terms so that we could learn something new.
Many of us ‘less educated’ members of the public do nonetheless have opinions in regards to the affects of the sun on climate.
Hi Megs
There are very few people who are fully acquainted with the sun’s effects on global climate, regretfully I am not one of them.
Therefore anything I would say is of very little value and no more accurate that “Many of (us) ‘less educated’ members of the public” as you put it, would have to offer.
Vuk,
A Jan 2020 start for SC25 would make SC24 exactly 11.0 years.
Two solar hemispheres are getting further and further out of step
http://sidc.oma.be/images/wnosuf.png
sun is getting close to the end of a ~ 100 year asymmetry cycle which I identified some 15 years ago, with important implications for the global climate trends.
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/MM.htm
Vukcevic in regards to your response to me Dec2,
My comment was out of place. I went back through the feed and then things made more sense. I shouldn’t have interjected, I apologise.
I’m new to the site and I’m on a steep learning curve, this lesson has taught me to step back a little and observe. This is my first opportunity to be a part of actual conversations that fit with my beliefs, it’s the first time I’ve felt that I have a voice. Now I just need to choose more wisely when to use it. I love the humor that is so evident in the banter, I just missed that one.
I respect that you responded.
No problem. My advice to all is not to take anything for granted from my comments here or elsewhere, and dare I say, I may not be unique in that respect.
Weather forecast comparisons:
Madrid 🇪🇸 for the week:
Highs: 11 – 12 C all week.
Lows: 3 – 4 C all week.
Rain ☔️ on Wednesday.
And what might have been,
Santiago 🇨🇱:
Highs: 30 – 31 C all week.
Lows: 14 – 15 C all week.
Sunny.
COP 26 site, Glasgow, is below freezing.
So Gore is already there?
I’m still hoping for a -2C Wednesday with the rain to turn to snow with The Goracle there.
All in favor of COP 26 in Mogadishu vote Aye.
Aye!
Somali pirates don’t really say “Aye”.
They say “Allah be praised” as they spray you with bullets from their AK.
Nose
Nope I think Syria would be much better.
Perfect weather to prove Global Warming is a fact for a COP.
Just a little cooler and they could make another Thousands of Snowmen protest like Copenhagen
I am interested in any glimmerings that nuclear will be an actual solution as opposed to renewables which aren’t a viable solution.
Three Canadian provincial premiers are pushing a plan to build small modular reactors (SMR). link That would replace the federal government’s carbon tax. It would be good for the Canadian nuclear industry. They give lip service to wind/solar, but really the SMRs would replace the renewables.
People have been campaigning against nuclear but it’s far from dead. It will be interesting to see when/if the greenies accept that nuclear is the only solution to their supposed problem. On the other hand, it may force them to admit that their real problem is with capitalism.
Natural gas has killed nuclear. It will only be used in niche situations.
In a logical world that would be true. The lack of logic is demonstrated by the wind farms that blight the landscape in some jurisdictions.
The greenie neo-Marxists are pretending that CO2 is a problem. We can pretend that we believe them and build nuclear. They will lose interest in CAGW once it doesn’t work for them any more. Real science will prevail again and people will wonder why so many people believed in CAGW. Then we can go back to natural gas.
The trick is to keep the greenies from ruining the economy permanently.
As Christmas will be here soon, I believe that it would be most fitting for all of those that attend to receive a stocking with a nice big lump of coal.
Good luck and safe trip. Mainland EU countries let anyone in these days. You will have to deal with this;
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/our-war-against-nature-must-stop-un-launches-madrid-climate-conference-20191202-p53fvd.html
“What are the key climate ‘tipping points’ and how can we avoid them?”
Too many climate alarmists in a conference room is one of the most dangerous tipping points humanity will have to face ever :
– indeed, too high CO2 concentrations could dazzle and scare the participants, push them on one side of the room and make it tilt over.
How can we avoid this key tipping point ?
Too late, models show that this tipping point – related to alarmists ratio – has already been irreversibly triggered :
– most of the conference rooms will tilt over in the next 12 years.
/sarc
Hi Anthony,
Perhaps you could find out about Greta’s dad. Greta is expected in Portugal by Tuesday, landing in a harbour north of Lissabon. The Outremer51 catamaran, according the docu, sleeps 4 adults or 2 adults and 3 children. With the owners, the au pair, the baby and Greta the boat would be full. So where is her dad? Personally I think he sneaked back to Europe on a plane and will miraculously appear on the quayside when his kid arrives. But nothing about it in the newspapers. In fact the UK tabloids talk about Greta and her dad traveling together, which appears not possible and therefore a falsehood. If you think it worthwhile, why not whisper into the ears of one of the more openminded journalists which will undoubtedly attend as well?
Have a safe journey, don’t forget to visit the Prado, have some really good steak and give the wine a try. And have good meeting.
There are pictures of him aboard. See for instance Day 16 with both men together.
https://www.facebook.com/nikki.henderson.sailing
It appears I stand corrected. However, that begs the question where his bunk is. Have they added one? Or are the specs for the catamaran wrong on the site of its makers?
They could be hot bunking. Even a joy ride like this requires someone to stand watch once in a while.
Almost all the time there is at least one person on deck, sometimes two or three.
That explains it. Should have thought of that.
Very Cool. I hope everything goes smoothly for you. Looking forward to your reports and perspective.
Pretend you are a Canadian, you’ll get treated like royalty 🙂
good luck. beware of bullies. be safe.
Ask Greta why she’s late. She still has a minimum of 185 nm to go at 9 knots, which should take about 23 hours, assuming wind doesn’t slack or currents don’t set her. Such a shame.
And from Lisbon to Madrid is still about 600 km. That’s about a week walking, much less by bicycle but my guess is she’ll take a train and that’ll still take a good chunk of a day.
My guess is she will be there Wednesday morning.
About 30 hours sailing left to Portugal, if not too much head wind as the wind is slowly turning west.
The 11 hours train to Madrid, or even much longer if she is going by electric car.
Solution if she goes by electric car: Do like the Pony Express did, having a fresh electric car ready for every 150km.
In Lisbon, she’s been invited to attend a session in the Assembly of the Republic promoted by the Parliamentary Committee on Environment, Energy and Spatial Planning, so if she does attend, that could possibly delay her an extra day.
An hour delay max. Photo op out front, slip inside, stick her head into the assembly room, shriek “How dare you, you capitalist dogs?!” and dash out the back door to the V-12 limo.
It would be nice if you could sat Hi to Greta.
But I think we all know that her minders would not allow a notorious climate denier in the same room, let alone talk to her.
You might pollute the purity of her faith with facts she does not need to know!
You sir, are very brave, going into the Liar’s Den like that! Of course, you will be well-armed with actual facts, and backup from the other Heartland members, so should do fine.
Nikhil Desai, ex-WB econometrician and energy policy expert, says that the kerfuffle over the Paris Accord’s Article 6 and looks like it is leading to the complete unravelling of the UNFCCC’s carbon trading scheme. It is that which is supposed to be taxed to fund the various organisations that have to arise to manage the huge offsets and pay-as-you-go projects of the UNO.
See if you agree:
++++++++
Last year in Katowice,
“The Polish presidency also launched a declaration on “forests for climate”, highlighting the important role of forests in reaching Paris Agreement goals. However, some NGOs expressed concern that the declaration showed signs that Poland hopes to use carbon offsets from forests to delay efforts to reduce emissions. Others noted the declaration didn’t include any concrete near-term targets.”
What does “efforts to reduce emissions” mean but a direct attack on individual industry, criminalizing coal, then steel, then air travel, shipping, anything other than solar EVs and other fancies of the super-wealthy, $10 billion apiece nuke and a $100 billion per country nuclear fuel cycle before $100 billion an accident?
Forest offsets? What is the baseline and how does anybody know? What are “concrete near-term targets” when all emission factors are mere assumptions, and the fuel consumption data non-existent (except for some large users)?
Now UNEP have issued another Emission Gap Report claiming India and China are among the “20 richest countries”. Make no mistake. This is an imperialist Big Game.
++++++++++++
The most important meetings will be in the back room huddles trying to convince Brazil not to demand a slice of the carbon finance pie be set aside for developing countries. Brazil doesn’t want and CDM rules changes in the Paris Accord and others want to close all the loopholes that allow people to sell hot air – meaning CO2 reductions that would have happened without any carbon finance at all.
The whole UNFCCC COP process is destined to failure. As sure as the sun rises in the East, it will fail.
The IPCC ARs are built on lies and half-truths, on top of lies and more half-truths.
They purposefully ignore natural causes of CC.
When you build anything on lies and propaganda… schemes will always fail.
Doesn’t matter if it is a marriage, a small business startup, or global energy carbon-trade scheme. It’s all deception, half-truths to concoct, lies, more lies, and then more lies.
From there it’s turtles all the way down.
The “How” is always the popcorn “fun” part.
Don’t miss the other Madrid. It has great museums and history, great food and tapas to offer.
Thanks Anthony- Good to see you’re still milking your followers for cash and a nice little vacation. How about standing up and asking a question for once (before getting schooled)?
Steve, please list the top three subjects you have in mind where you think Anthony could get schooled:
1)
2)
3)
Got my Terradyne Gurkha loaded for the trip to COP25.
Well, we’ve all got to do our bit for the climate by not flying.
Need a lift Greta? You can travel in the back with Leonardo.
Are you being serious?
“Are you being serious?”
How dare you! You have stolen my Gurkha and my passengers with your empty words.
No, going to the Lake District in my Kuga, instead. Close decision, though.
This spring, while mowing, I will allow an oak tree seedling to grow, rather than cutting it down, in order to offset Anthony’s CO2 usage while flying to Madrid and back.
I would have done the same for Greta, if she had just asked, and then she wouldn’t have to be riding a roller coaster across the North Atlantic. But, it’s too late now.
Can someone open a window, please!
I am looking forward already to Anthony’s report from the COP25 talk-fest junket in Madrid. It will be good to get an impartial report on proceedings to offset the official wall of propaganda that is already being prepared.
If your organization is sending a number of delegates I suggest you try to get a wide range of accreditation as possible i.e. NGO, press, delegate from a particular country, or international organization, through various categories accredited by UNFCCC The COP is a big circus of groups and individuals with different agenda and interests. The best badge is to be a member of the delegation from a signatory country of the UNFCCC. This allows you maximum mobility to attend and participate in all types of events including close door meetings where the country is a member i.e. EU, Group of 77 plus China, etc A Press badge often limits the entry to press conference, opening , plenary and side events. It is for this reason a number of NGOs lobbied to be part of the delegation of member country. You may wonder why a very small and poor country could have tens or even close to hundreds of members in their delegation. Normally UN or through one of its agencies pays for only one or two delegates. Depending on the country’s protocol, the consular or embassy official closes to the venue is added to the delegation as often the ministry or department of foreign affairs will have to sign any agreement reached during the COP or MOP subject to review and approval of the higher officials in their capital. Outside the conference venue are often more interesting antics from all sides. This is were you get tents asking people to sign for petitions to ban di-hydrogen oxide, to smashing of effigies and may be XR will come in full force The meeting itself is rather bland as the working papers have been subject of discussions for the last 12 months by the mid level officials and specialists from the member countries then vetted and discussed in the capitals. It is not unusual for the focal agency of COP to present and give a summary of the agreement and critical issues in a cabinet meeting and get instructions before attending the COP and MOP. There will be few “unresolved” issues to keep the media interested and held the NGOs in anxiety that the COP will fail without any agreement. All COPs and MOP will always end with some agreement and some “unresolved issues” to continue and justify the series of meetings by the different working groups for the next next year COP or MOP.
Anytime, you see one of the alarmists getting their picture took, Anthony; stand somewhere in the background.
If we can get Anthony standing in the background of alarmists’ pictures, he can photobomb the entire bunch. They’ll quickly start skulking around searching for Anthony before quickly taking a picture. Looking like the guilty parties they are.
Anthony can become the “watcher” watching alarmists scam audience.
Via con Dios, as they say over there.
Actually its vaya con Dios. 🙂
Richard, do you have an email. I will be at COP25 a bit later but have a youth group there and I would like them to attend one of your talks. The NGO is called Kinderenergy.org
Thank you,
E. Delgado
Find out where all the private jets are parked.