The Week That Was: 2019-11-02 (November 2, 2019)

Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)

The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “Climatology is becoming an increasingly dubious science, serving a political project… the policy cart is leading the scientific horse.” – Judith Curry, City Journal, Winter 2019.

Number of the Week: 30 to 40°F (17 to 22°C) below average

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Appropriate Models: Mathematics is the language of science, but that does not mean that mathematical models correctly describe physical phenomena. Or that a mathematical process in a model used in analyzing physical evidence (data) from observations and / or experiments suitable for one phenomenon is suitable for other phenomena. The model may or may not describe the subject phenomenon. That is one reason why Richard Feynman stated that hypotheses (guesses) must be tested against all relevant data. Experimental data is preferred because other possible influences are controlled to the extent possible, but observational data may be necessary.

For example, Euclidian geometry generally fit the concepts of the day, until Newtonian mechanics were needed to better described the orbits of planets in classical physics. But Newtonian mathematics, which included calculus, did not describe Brownian motion and the movement of electrons around an atom. Eventually, Quantum mechanics (physics) was developed to better explain such motion. This field requires a far more highly specialized forms of mathematics than Euclidian mathematics. (Describing Brownian motion has to do with statistics: numbers of molecules bumping into macroscopic particles like dust, knocking them around in random directions with random speeds. Relativity also required specialized mathematics.)

A similar problem appears to be rising in the study of climate. Mathematical models used to study weather are improving over short time periods, say one to seven days. But they blow apart in about 10 days. The wished-for goal of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is to predict extreme weather events 30 days out – but success is doubtful. Mathematical chaos develops in models of coupled dynamic nonlinear systems, of which the atmospheric fluid in an example.

It is becoming apparent that the mathematical models developed for forecasting weather may not be suitable for forecasting future climate, which requires long-range predicting / forecasting capability. On his blog, Meteorologist Cliff Mass, who is not a climate sceptic, describes the difficulties of forecasting beyond two weeks, sometimes beyond one week. As he states:

Such poor forecasts even a month out are not unusual. UW graduate student Nick Weber and I evaluated the skill of the main U.S. long-term forecasting model (the CFSv2) and found that skill is typically lost after roughly 2 weeks (see below and published in the peer-reviewed literature). This figure shows the forecast error (root mean square error) at 500 hPa—about 18,000 ft, a good level to view atmospheric predictability. The situation is the same over Washington [State], the western U.S., the continental U.S. or global. Skill is rapidly lost the second week out.

While meteorologists struggle to produce improved forecast skill past two weeks, we have gained a great deal of skill at the shorter time ranges, particularly for days 3-8.

So why is our skill improving rapidly for the shorter periods, but not the longer ones?

Because the forecasting problem is very different at the different temporal scales.

For the short periods, forecasting is an initial value problem. We start with a good description of the 3D atmosphere and our models simulate how things evolve. Because of weather satellites and other new data sources, our initial description of the atmospheric has gotten MUCH better. And our models are much better: higher resolution, much better description of key physical processes, and more. That is why a plot of the skill of the 1-10-day forecasts of the European Center has improved greatly over the past decades (see below [a graph is given])

But small errors in the initial description of the atmosphere and deficiencies in our models inevitably lead to growing errors, and by 2 weeks such errors swamp the forecast. The forecasts are not much better than simply using the average conditions (or climatology).

[Boldface in the original, Mass illustrates the problems with two graphs that are omitted in the above.]

According to NCAR-UCAR, the Japan Meteorological Agency has the best set of reanalysis data used for initiating daily forecasts:

“Spanning 1958-present, JRA-55 is the longest third-generation reanalysis that uses the full observing system (in contrast, products like ERA-20C and NOAA 20CR assimilate a very limited set of observations while NCEP R1 uses an antiquated model and assimilation scheme).

“KEY STRENGTHS:

· Longest-running full observing system reanalysis with 4DVar

· Incorporation of several new observational datasets, new radiation scheme, and variational bias correction results in many improvements over JRA-25

· Two companion datasets are available that allow users to address the impact of data assimilation: JRA-55C using conventional observations only and JRA55-AMIP using no data assimilation

“KEY LIMITATIONS:

· As with most reanalyses, diagnostic variables including precipitation and evaporation should be used with extreme caution

· Dry bias in upper and middle troposphere and in regions of deep convection

· Time-varying warm bias in the upper troposphere”

Again, we see there is no ideal dataset. But JAR-55 gives a long-term record of weather that becomes a record of climate change. Yet, important to weather modelers, it is ignored by climate modelers.

When pressed on why climate models diverge so widely, a typical excuse used by climate modelers is “different initial condition.” Why the initial conditions vary so widely is not explained? See links under Seeking a Common Ground and https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/jra-55

*****************

Escape From Model-Land: On her web site, Judith Curry brings up an amusing and sad essay published in an economic one-line journal Escape From Model Land:

“Model-land is a hypothetical world in which mathematical simulations are evaluated against other mathematical simulations, mathematical models against other (or the same) mathematical model, everything is well-posed and models (and their imperfections) are known perfectly.”

The abstract of the paper states:

“Both mathematical modelling and simulation methods in general have contributed greatly to understanding, insight and forecasting in many fields including macroeconomics. Nevertheless, we must remain careful to distinguish model-land and model-land quantities from the real world. Decisions taken in the real world are more robust when informed by our best estimate of real-world quantities, than when “optimal” model-land quantities obtained from imperfect simulations are employed. The authors present a short guide to some of the temptations and pitfalls of model-land, some directions towards the exit, and two ways to escape.”

The paper further states:

“Model-land is a hypothetical world in which our simulations are perfect, an attractive fairytale state of mind in which optimising a simulation invariably reflects desirable pathways in the real world. Decision-support in model-land implies taking the output of model simulations at face value (perhaps using some form of statistical post-processing to account for blatant inconsistencies), and then interpreting frequencies in model-land to represent probabilities in the real-world. Elegant though these systems may be, something is lost in the move back to reality; very low probability events and model-inconceivable “Big Surprises” are much too frequent in applied meteorology, geology, and economics. We have found remarkably similar challenges to good model-based decision support in energy demand, fluid dynamics, hurricane formation, lifeboat operations, nuclear stewardship, weather forecasting, climate calculators, and sustainable governance of reindeer hunting.”

This is followed by an imaginary “map” of Model-Land, stating the only way out is via the black hole in the middle.

It is appropriate that economists write such a parody. For years macro-economic modelers have dominated discussions of economic policy, invoking the name of Keynes in Keynesian Analysis, though they go far beyond anything he wrote. Perhaps the biggest travesty was the balanced-budget multiplier. An equal increase in government spending and tax revenues will expand prosperity. Taken to its logical conclusion, this concept would predict that the Soviet Union was the most powerful economic system ever conceived – until it imploded.

As Judith Curry discovered when she began to question climate models, leaving model-land can be a painful experience. What Christopher Booker described as groupthink is very much enforced. Curry’s overview is instructive. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2018/02/Groupthink.pdf

*****************

Cloudiness: As Richard Lindzen and others have discussed, one of the major deficiencies in the reports of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its global climate models used is the inability to treat clouds. An international program, the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) was established to address this issue. It’s web site states:

“ISCCP was established in 1982 as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) to collect and analyze satellite radiance measurements to infer the global distribution of clouds, their properties, and their diurnal, seasonal, and interannual variations. Data collection began on 1 July 1983 and is currently planned to continue through 30 June 2010. The resulting datasets and analysis products are being used to improve understanding and modeling of the role of clouds in climate, with the primary focus being the elucidation of the effects of clouds on the radiation balance. These data can also [be] used to support many other cloud studies, including understanding of the hydrological cycle.

“Data are collected from the suite of weather satellites operated by several nations and processed by several groups in government agencies, laboratories, and universities. For each operational satellite, a Satellite Processing Center (SPC) collects the raw satellite data and sends it to the Global Processing Center (GPC). The Correlative Data Center (CDC) coordinates the delivery of other satellite and conventional weather data to the GPC. The Satellite Calibration Center (SCC) normalizes the calibration of the geostationary satellites with respect to a polar orbiter satellite standard. All ISCCP data products are archived at the ISCCP Central Archive (ICA) and at NASA Langley Research Center (LARC).”

The Russian Academy of Sciences published a paper by O. M. Pokrovsky of the Russian State Hydrometeorological University. The Abstract states:

“The results of analysis of climatic series of global and regional cloudiness for 1983–2009. Data were obtained in the framework of the international satellite project ISCCP. The technology of statistical time series analysis including smoothing algorithm and wavelet analysis is described. Both methods are intended for the analysis of non-stationary series. The results of the analysis show that both global and regional cloudiness show a decrease of 2–6%. The greatest decrease is observed in the tropics and over the oceans. Over land, the decrease is minimal. The correlation coefficient between the global cloud series on the one hand and the global air and ocean surface temperature series on the other hand reaches values (–0.84) — (–0.86). The coefficient of determination that characterizes the accuracy of the regression for the prediction of global temperature changes based on data on changes in the lower cloud, in this case is 0.316.”

On her web site, Jo Nova posted two graphs from the Russian study. One graph showed a sharp decrease in Percentage of Global Cloud cover from almost 68% in 1986 to less than 64% in 1999-2000. One may recall that in the 1998-99-time frame there was a spike in satellite temperatures. The second graph gives a scatter gram of the relationship between surface-air temperatures and percentage cloudiness with a line drawn by a regression analysis.

“The regression linear approximation model suggests that a 1% increase in global cloud cover corresponds to a global decrease in temperature of about 0.07ºC and vice versa.”

The relationship in the graph is important but not compelling. There may be many independent variables explaining changes in temperatures other than cloudiness. A coefficient of determination (the correlation coefficient squared) is valuable but the data is very scattered. For example, it is not as compelling as the relationship between the solar activity proxy of Carbon 14 and the climate proxy of oxygen 18 shown in the 2008 report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), page 14. In that graph both variables move significantly, yet together.

What makes the relationship in the Russian report more compelling is that it is reinforced by other studies as discussed by Kenneth Richard in No Tricks Zone. Richard brings up five other studies showing changing cloudiness or changing solar intensity and surface temperatures: Herman et al., 2013; Goode and Palle, 2007; Loeb et al., 2018; Hofer et al., 2017 and Simpkins, 2017.

The Russian paper is another example why the IPCC and its followers have little basis for expressing high certainty in their products and the models on which their assertions are based. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

*****************

Scientocracy: Climate model critic Norman Rogers reviews a book called Scientocracy, a play on the word aristocracy. The scientocracy depends on the honest reputations of past investigators of the nature world. However, the scientocracy serves bureaucrats and will fake science and evidence to serve their goals. Specific examples are given in the eleven essays covering different parts of science. What happens when the credibility of science is damaged and destroyed appears to be of concern to the scientocracy. See links under Health, Energy, and Climate.

*****************

Wind Blown Travesty? The International Energy Administration (IEA) is an autonomous organization established in 1974 under the Organization for Economic Development (OECD) to address the 1973 oil crisis caused by the Arab Oil Embargo. Member states include most of North America, western Europe, and developed states in Asia. China and Russia are not members. TWTW frequently cites studies by IEA

On October 25, IEA issued Offshore Wind Outlook 2019: World Energy Outlook Special Report. This report ranks with the special reports issued by the IPCC. It is difficult to separate science from science fiction because the part of the report available for review is largely free of physical evidence supporting critical details such as storage and corrosion from saltwater spray.

The Conclusions are:

“• Offshore wind is set to be a $1 trillion industry over the next two decades, but the promise of growth hinges on government policies and industry strategies

• Policy makers need to provide long-term visibility for supply chains to be efficient, and need to manage maritime planning and onshore grid development

• Offshore wind can become one of the most competitive sources of electricity if market conditions are right and technology cost reductions materialize.

• Offshore wind contributes to electricity security and makes energy transitions more affordable. Hydrogen and further innovations, such as floating turbines, expand opportunities

• The IEA will continue to focus on ‘all fuels and all technologies’ to provide the world’s best energy data, independent & rigorous analysis & real-world solutions”

If the reports of actual experiences from Germany and United Kingdom of wind generation in the North Sea are considered, there will be a major problem from over-generation part of the time and no generation part of the time. The California Duck Curve may apply. On his blog, Paul Homewood summarizes the promotion of this report well:

“What the IEA do say, and which the Mail does mention further down, is that offshore wind capacity will increase 15-fold in the next two decades.

“Given that it only accounts for 0.3% of global generation, this would increase its share to a still tiny 4.5%. And that assumes that total demand does not increase, which is highly unlikely.

“Somehow I don’t see it saving the world!”

Human imagination regarding reports such as this is boundless See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up, Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind, and Energy Issues – US.

*****************

California Fires: The California fires driven by winds from the east continue but appear to be subsiding in Northern California, above the San Francisco Bay area. In the northern areas the winds are called Diablo winds in the south Santa Ana winds. One of the confusing issues is that these warm, dry winds appear to be driven by cold, dry air from Canada moving into the Great Basin. The Great Basin is the area between the Sierra Nevada Mountains and the Rockies, between Oregon and Arizona, centered near the Great Salt Lake. The Great Basin does not drain into the sea.

In brief, the cold, dry air from Canada pushes the warm, dry air over the mountains, causing the warm, dry air to flow down canyons on the other side, resulting in dangerous fire conditions. If anything, carbon dioxide-caused global warming will result in fewer incidences of cold, dry air moving into the Great Basin, thus lessening the threat of these fires. See links under Changing Weather and California Dreaming

*****************

Number of the Week: 30 to 40°F (17 to 22°C) below average According to meteorologist Chris Martz, on October 29 cold air from Western Canada caused temperatures to drop some 30 to 40°F below average in the Rockies and the Great Basin. This cold air caused high winds in California.

NEWS YOU CAN USE:

Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?

25 for 25

By David Archibald, WUWT, Oct 29, 2019

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/29/25-for-25/

[SEPP Comment: So much for the predictive capability of the National Science Foundation and NASA. Will they recognize their incorrect predictions about the sun?]

Quiet sun sets new record for spotless days

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Nov 1, 2019

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/01/quiet-sun-sets-new-record-for-spotless-days/

Climategate Continued

Climategate: Nearly ten years later

By Kelvin Kemm, WUWT, Nov 1, 2019

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/01/climategate-ten-years-later/

Censorship

Biased ‘Fact-Checkers’ Offer Bogus Cover for Facebook Censorship

By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Oct 28, 2019

https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/colorado-davis-ipcc-cru/2019/10/28/id/938979/

Suppressing Scientific Inquiry

The UVic, Susan Crockford Story Continues

Refuse to talk to the reporter. Afterward, accuse her [the reporter] of ‘multiple factual inaccuracies.’ [Without addressing the issue.] Isn’t academia grand?

https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2019/10/30/the-uvic-susan-crockford-story-continues/

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf

Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Download with no charge:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Climate-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Volume-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Download with no charge:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/publications/SeaLevelRiseCCRII.pdf

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Climate Change–The Facts

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 28, 2019

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/10/28/climate-change-the-facts/#more-41887

Escape from model land

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 29, 2019

https://judithcurry.com/2019/10/29/escape-from-model-land/#more-25366

Link to paper: Escape from model-land

By Erica L. Thompson and Leonard A. Smith, Economics E-Journal, March 8, 2019

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/194875/1/1662970102.pdf

New study settles it: Global Warming and the pause was driven by changes in cloud cover, not CO2

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 1, 2019

http://joannenova.com.au/2019/11/new-study-settles-it-global-warming-and-the-pause-was-driven-by-changes-in-cloud-cover-not-co2/

Cloud Changes in the Period of Global Warming: the Results of the International Satellite Project

By Pokrovsky OM, Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Journal is in Russian, Eco-Vector.com, 2019, Copyright , 2019 Russian Academy of Sciences

https://journals.eco-vector.com/0205-9614/article/view/11444

See paper: Aerosols and Incoming Sunlight (Direct Effects)

By Staff, Earth Observatory, NASA, Nov 2, 2010 [H/t Jim Karlock]

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Aerosols/page3.php

Link to program: International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project

Project Overview, By Staff, Accessed Nov 2, 2019

https://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/describe/overview.html

Scientists: The Entirety Of The 1979-2017 Global Temperature Change Can Be Explained By Natural Forcing

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 28, 2019

https://notrickszone.com/2019/10/28/scientists-the-entirety-of-the-1979-2017-global-temperature-change-can-be-explained-by-natural-forcing/

Climate Challenge

Identify which of the 1,081 storm tracks were caused by “climate change.”

By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Oct 31, 2019

https://realclimatescience.com/2019/10/climate-challenge/

TV star Johnny Ball says plants-in-the-ocean theory calls into question man-made climate change

By Michael Alexander, The Courier, UK, Oct 30, 2019 [H/t GWPF]

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/uk-world/1006622/tv-star-johnny-ball-says-plants-in-the-ocean-theory-disproves-man-made-climate-change/?utm_source=twitter

Retired Aberdeen University geoscientist and emeritus senior lecturer (geography, geology, physics and mathematics) Dr Michael Wood said:

“’I am shocked how the so-called ‘science’ of climate change is scaring the world – including poor children like Miss Thunberg,’ said Dr Wood, who says he has never been a climate change denier as the climate changes all the time, but he is a ‘real scientist’ sceptic.”

“’This is especially relevant as there has been very little global temperature change since the late 1970s. Using the official NASA Aqua satellite data, the global climate trend since December 1978 is only +0.13 C per decade – insignificant. The current level of CO2 in the atmosphere is very low – barely 410 ppmv – parts per million by volume – and CO2 makes up only 0.04% of the atmosphere. A tiny amount. But it is essential for plant life.’”

Data, Satellite Photos Expose Climate Activist’s Lies. Facts: Sahara Shrinking, Arctic Ice Robust, Lake Chad Growing

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 27, 2019

https://notrickszone.com/2019/10/27/data-satellite-photos-expose-climate-activists-lies-facts-sahara-shrinking-arctic-ice-robust-lake-chad-growing/

Defending the Orthodoxy

1000 UK Academics Demand Career Breaks So They Can ‘Save The Planet From Climate Change’

By Staff, The Daily Telegraph, UK, Via GWPF, Oct 30, 2019

https://www.thegwpf.com/academics-demand-career-breaks-so-they-can-save-the-planet-from-climate-change/

Link to letter, Universities must act swiftly and independently on climate change

An open letter from academics and campaigners to sector leaders

By Staff, Times Higher Education, Oct 29, 2019

https://www.timeshighereducation.com/opinion/universities-must-act-swiftly-and-independently-climate-change

“Over 700 British professors and lecturers have signed an open letter to vice-Chancellors and research funding chiefs warning that ‘the very future of life on earth is in question’ (sic!) if ‘climate breakdown’ is not addressed.’”

Ex-California governor: Wildfires ‘only a taste of the horror’ of climate change

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 28, 2019

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/467731-ex-california-governor-wildfires-only-a-taste-of-the-horror-of

Ocasio-Cortez points to California fires: ‘This is what climate change looks like’

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 28, 2019

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/467699-ocasio-cortez-points-to-california-fires-this-is-what-climate

Questioning the Orthodoxy

The World Is Not Going To Halve Carbon Emissions By 2030, So Now What?

By Roger Pielke, Forbes, Oct 27, 2019

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/10/27/the-world-is-not-going-to-reduce-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-50-by-2030-now-what/#3f8138e43794

Sour milk, sourer grapes and the unnatural greenhouse effect

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Oct 28, 2019

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/28/sour-milk-sourer-grapes-and-the-unnatural-greenhouse-effect/

After Paris!

Chile cancels Apec summit, Cop 25 climate meeting amid wave of protests

By Staff, Reuters, Oct 30, 2019

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/americas/chile-cancels-apec-summit-climate-meeting-in-santiago-amid-wave-of-protests

Expensive Climate Policies Sparked Chile Riots and #COP25 climate conference cancellation

By: James Taylor, WUWT, Nov 1, 2019

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/01/expensive-climate-policies-sparked-chile-riots-and-cop25-climate-conference-cancellation/

The Pain and Pointlessness of the Paris Accord

By Alistair Crooks, Quadrant, Nov 1, 2019

https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2019/11/the-pain-and-pointlessness-of-the-paris-accord/

“Firstly, on close examination of Figure 3, you can easily see that over the 38 years from 1980, the EU’s emissions declined by just a little. On the other hand and over the same period, US emissions were also almost flat.”

[SEPP Comment: According to an October 10, 2019 report by the Union of Concerned Scientists using data from the IEA, in 2016 China produced 9056.8 MT of CO2 from fuel combustion (29%), the US 4833.1 MT (16%) and India 2076.3 MT (7%).]

https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emissions

Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide

Maybe with more CO2?

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 30, 2019

https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/10/30/maybe-with-more-co2/

“The UN just solved the climate crisis, for a mere $300 billion. Which is hardly chump change but at least doesn’t require major changes in lifestyle. And here’s the dirt on it: dirt. It seems we can just lock all the naughty extra CO2 into the soil if, Bloomberg News reports, we just grow more plants on about half of the 2 billion hectares of land “that has been degraded by misuse, overgrazing, deforestation and other largely human factors”. Say, what a great idea. Grow more plants. As apparently we have been doing since the 1970s by providing them with more of what they really need: CO2.”

[SEPP Comment: See link immediately below.]

These U.N. Climate Scientists Think They Can Halt Global Warming for $300 Billion. Here’s How

By Adam Majendie and Pratik Parija, Bloomberg, Via Time, Oct 24, 2019

https://time.com/5709100/halt-climate-change-300-billion/

[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Maldives to open five new airports in 2019

By Staff, Maldives Insider, May 20, 2019 [H/t GWPF]

https://maldives.net.mv/31166/maldives-to-open-five-new-airports-in-2019/

“Over a million tourists from across the globe visit the Indian Ocean island nation every year to holiday in one of the 120 resorts and 400 plus guesthouses located in all corners of the country. The multi-billion dollar tourism industry, which is the country’s main economic activity, relies heavily on the domestic transport infrastructure, especially air travel.

“Maldives, the most dispersed country on the planet with 1,192 islands spread over roughly 90,000 square kilometres, already has 11 airports, including three international airports. The government has contracted both local and international companies to develop additional domestic airports across the archipelago in a bid to boost tourism.”

[SEPP Comment: Will all the activities require scuba gear?]

Bundesbank boss rejects climate objectives for ECB

By Staff Writers, Frankfurt Am Main (AFP), Oct 29, 2019

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Bundesbank_boss_rejects_climate_objectives_for_ECB_999.html

Global Travel Revolution Challenges Climate Targets

By John Kemp, Reuters, Via GWPF, Oct 31, 2019

https://www.thegwpf.com/forget-paris-global-travel-revolution-challenges-climate-targets/

Seeking a Common Ground

Extended Forecasts are Not Reliable

By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Oct 31, 2019

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/10/extended-forecasts-are-not-reliable.html

How Lord Monckton’s Conundrum can be used to calculate maximum climate sensitivity to CO2 Thought Experiment

By Bob Irvine, WUWT, Oct 27, 2019

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/how-lord-moncktons-conundrum-can-be-used-to-calculate-maximum-climate-sensitivity-to-co2/

Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

This C4 Plant Responds to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment Like a C3 Plant

Li, P., Li, B., Seneweera, S., Zong, Y., Li, F.Y., Han, Y. and Hao, X. 2019. Photosynthesis and yield response to elevated CO2, C4 plant foxtail millet behaves similarly to C3 species. Plant Science 285: 239-247. Nov 1, 2019

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/nov/a1.php

“It is often claimed that C4 crops will remain relatively unresponsive to future atmospheric CO2 enrichment, as they possess a CO2 concentrating mechanism that allows them to achieve a greater photosynthetic capacity than C3 plants at the current atmospheric CO2 concentration, particularly at high growth temperatures. However, this view is far from correct, evidenced by the many studies revealing significant CO2-induced growth enhancements in C4 plants highlighted in our Subject Index (see the subheadings under C4 Plants) and throughout our Plant Growth Database. The most recent study to prove as much comes from the Asian research team of Li et al. (2019).”

The Response of Rice to Elevated CO2, Temperature and Drought Stress

Padhy, S.R., Nayak, S., Dash, P.K., Das, M., Roy, K.S., Nayak, A.K., Neogi, S. and Bhattacharyya, P. 2018. Elevated carbon dioxide and temperature imparted intrinsic drought tolerance in aerobic rice system through enhanced exopolysaccharide production and rhizospheric activation. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 268: 52-60. Oct 31, 2019

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/oct/a18.php

“In summing up these several findings, Padhy et al. write that in the future, ‘elevated CO2 and temperature (2-3°C rise) could impart additional drought tolerance to aerobic rice,’ adding ‘their positive impact would be manifested by enhanced soil water holding capacity by producing higher exopolysaccharides and better mineralization of nutrients in rhizosphere through enhanced labile carbon allocation and enzymatic activities.’ And that is great news for this key agricultural crop grown and consumed by billions of persons across the world.”

The Not-so-favorable Outcome of Reducing Atmospheric CO2

Temme, A.A., Liu, J.C., Cornwell, W.K., Aerts, R. and Cornelissen, J.H.C. 2019. Hungry and thirsty: Effects of CO2 and limited water availability on plant performance. Flora 254: 188-193. Oct 30, 2019

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/oct/a17.php

“Given the above, it is highly unlikely that human society or nature could survive a return to glacial maximum CO2 concentrations without massive repercussions, including the widespread destruction and possible extinction of numerous species. And although no one in their right mind is presently advocating for a return to those conditions, clearly, the relationship in this graph reveals that any reduction in the CO2 content of the air (relative to today) would reduce plant biomass and negatively impact humanity and the natural world.”

The Interaction of Elevated CO2 and Nitrogen Supply on Wheat Grain Yield

Li, X., Ulfat, A., Shokat, S., Liu, S., Zhu, X. and Liu, F. 2019. Responses of carbohydrate metabolism enzymes in leaf and spike to CO2 elevation and nitrogen fertilization and their relations to grain yield in wheat. Environmental and Experimental Botany 164: 149-156. Oct 28, 2019

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/oct/a16.php

Models v. Observations

Climate change threatens biodiversity inside Earth’s conservation areas

By Brooks Hays, Washington DC (UPI), Oct 22, 2019

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Climate_change_threatens_biodiversity_inside_Earths_conservation_areas_999.html

[SEPP Comment: The gas all green plants need is reducing the biodiversity of plants and animals?]

Measurement Issues — Surface

Shrinking Stevenson Screens cause global warming (and peeling paint, long grass…)

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 28, 2019

http://joannenova.com.au/2019/10/shrinking-stevenson-screens-cause-global-warming-and-peeling-paint-long-grass/#more-66992

Australian legislator uncovers that country’s Bureau of Meteorology fiddling with temperature records to hype warming

By Thomas Lifson, American Thinker, Oct 26, 2019

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/10/australian_legislator_uncovers_that_countrys_bureau_of_meteorology_fiddling_with_temperature_records_to_hype_warming.html#ixzz63e0hg8rE

The Australian Bureau of Met hides 50 years of very hot days

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 26, 2019

http://joannenova.com.au/2019/10/the-australian-bureau-of-met-hides-50-years-of-very-hot-days/#more-67066

Climate Emergency Tour: Cambridge Bay Edition

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 30, 2019

https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/10/30/climate-emergency-tour-cambridge-bay-edition/

Measurement Issues — Atmosphere

UAH Global Temperature Update for October 2019: +0.46 deg. C

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Nov 1, 2019

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/11/uah-global-temperature-update-for-october-2019-0-46-deg-c/

“The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for October 2019 was +0.46 deg. C, down from the September value of +0.61 deg. C.”

Changing Weather

Mother Nature, Not Global Warming, is Causing the Wildfires in California

By Chris Martz, His weather Blog, Oct 29, 2019

https://chrismartzweather.com/2019/10/29/mother-nature-not-global-warming-is-causing-the-wildfires-in-california/

California Wildfires, Climate Change, and the Hot-Dry-Windy Fire Weather Index

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Nov 1, 2019

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/11/california-wildfires-climate-change-and-the-hot-dry-windy-fire-weather-index/

Do wet winters mean bad summer fire seasons in California? Not usually, according to history

By Paul Rogers, Bay Area News, June 1, 2010, updated Aug 13, 2016

https://www.mercurynews.com/2010/06/01/do-wet-winters-mean-bad-summer-fire-seasons-in-california-not-usually-according-to-history/

[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]

Extreme Winds in California–and Soon in the Columbia Gorge– Are Being Driven by Unusually Cold Air

By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Oct 27, 2019

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2019-10-29T20:14:00-07:00&max-results=1&start=1&by-date=false

“During the past decades, cold air outbreaks have weakened, partially due to global warming. And long term climate models show that global warming will increasingly weaken the cold air outbreaks that drives the strong easterly winds that drive CA wildfires in the autumn. Global warming has all kinds of negative effects, but one of them is NOT the strong easterly flow that drives the big wildfires we have seen in recent years.”

A Surge of Cold, Dry Air Envelopes the Northwest and Now Threatens California

By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Oct 29, 2019

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/10/a-surge-of-cold-dry-air-envelopes.html

Are Hurricanes Getting Worse?

By Patrick Michaels, Washington Times, Via CEI, Oct 14, 2019

https://cei.org/content/are-hurricanes-getting-worse

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Two million-year-old ice provides snapshot of Earth’s greenhouse gas history

By Staff Writers, Corvallis OR (SPX), Oct 31, 2019

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Two_million_year_old_ice_provides_snapshot_of_Earths_greenhouse_gas_history_999.html

Link to paper: Two-million-year-old snapshots of atmospheric gases from Antarctic ice

By Yuzhen Yan, et al. Nature, Oct 30, 2019

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1692-3

[SEPP Comment: The abstract and the article fail to mention that changes in CO2 concentrations lag behind changes in temperatures, especially cooling occurring before a decrease in CO2.]

CO2 Emissions Tripled During 1961-2002 As Greenland Cooled And Gained 1.35 Trillion Metric Tons Of Ice

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 31, 2019

https://notrickszone.com/2019/10/31/co2-emissions-tripled-during-1961-2002-as-greenland-cooled-and-gained-1-35-trillion-metric-tons-of-ice/

Photos taken century apart show stark Mont Blanc glacier melt

By Amelie Bottollier-Depois, Paris (AFP) Oct 24, 2019

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Photos_taken_century_apart_show_stark_Mont_Blanc_glacier_melt_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Did the 18^th century priests called upon to stop the glaciers do their job too well?]

Changing Earth

What makes the Earth’s surface move?

By Staff Writers, Paris, France (SPX), Oct 31, 2019

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/What_makes_the_Earths_surface_move_999.html

Link to paper: What drives tectonic plates?

By Nicolas Coltice, et al. Science, Oct 30, 2019

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/10/eaax4295

Un-Science or Non-Science?

300 million face annual coastline flooding by 2050: study

By Marlowe Hood, Paris (AFP), Oct 29, 2019

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/300_million_face_annual_coastline_flooding_by_2050_study_999.html

“Using a form of artificial intelligence known as neural networks, the new research corrects ground elevation data that has up to now vastly underestimated the extent to which coastal zones are subject to flooding during high tide or major storms.”

[SEPP Comment: Does artificial intelligence in modeling lead to artificial evidence?]

Why are big storms bringing so much more rain

By Staff Writers, Princeton NJ (SPX) Oct 31, 2019

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Why_are_big_storms_bringing_so_much_more_rain_999.html

Link to paper: Causes of large projected increases in hurricane precipitation rates with global warming

By Maofeng Liu, et al, Nature, Oct 18, 2019

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-019-0095-3

“A recently developed high-resolution climate model at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), HiFLOR, can accurately reproduce the observed spectrum of TC intensity, allowing us to further explore the impact of TC intensification on storm rainfall.”

[SEPP Comment: GFDL models greatly overestimate the atmospheric warming over the tropics, so a higher resolution GFDL model should be accepted as better?]

Scientists determine an explosion of Antarctic sea ice may have sent the world into an ice age 2.5 million years ago

Computer simulations find previous ice ages may have been cause by sea ice

Sea ice acted as a lid on the ocean, blocking it from releasing carbon dioxide

Less CO2 in atmosphere creates a reverse greenhouse effect and cool the earth

By Stacy Liberatore, Daily Mail, UK, Nov 1, 2019

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-7631115/Explosion-sea-ice-levels-spark-ice-age-time-2-MILLION-years.html

[SEPP Comment: Apparently the computer modelers do not understand that cold water absorbs more CO2 than warm water.]

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

The Conservatives’ climate change conundrum: Don Pittis

Tories facing the difficult task of building a voter-friendly plan to cut greenhouse gases

By Don Pittis, CBC News, Canada, Oct 23, 2019

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/conservative-climate-election-1.5330347

“There are still plenty of Albertans who refuse to accept the simplest principles of climate change, including the mayor of Medicine Hat, who recently insisted carbon dioxide is not pollution but rather one of life’s building blocks.” [Boldface added.]

[SEPP Comment: The reporter is described as a former forest firefighter. Apparently, he does not understand CO2 is needed for the forests to grow.]

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Time to panic

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 30, 2019

https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/10/30/time-to-panic/

“The second odd point is that if Oreskes et al are to be believed, scientists have been issuing hair-raising warnings for decades. Yet now she and her coauthors say scientists haven’t been doing anything of the sort because they are timid. So if scientists aren’t sounding the alarm, what science are you relying on to say they should be?”

Offshore Wind Can Supply All The World’s Power–Claims Daily Mail

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 26, 2019

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/10/26/offshore-wind-can-supply-all-the-worlds-power-claims-daily-mail/

Albatross Dying Out Because Of Climate Change–Latest Attenborough Fake News

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 28, 2019

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/10/28/albatross-dying-out-because-of-climate-change-latest-attenborough-fake-news/

Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.

Naomi Oreskes – the gift that keeps on giving, Pt 1

By Charles the moderator, WUWT, Nov 1, 2019

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/01/naomi-oreskes-the-gift-that-keeps-on-giving-pt-1/

Link to Original, Naomi Oreskes – the gift that keeps on giving, Pt 1

By Russell Cook, The GelbspanFiles.com, Oct 31, 2019

http://gelbspanfiles.com/?p=9222

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda

The Myth of the Apolitical Scientist

It’s absurd to say scientists are only now speaking up. Reuters’ publishes egregious climate propaganda.

By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Oct 28, 2019

https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2019/10/28/the-myth-of-the-apolitical-scientist/

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda

World Leading Climate Scientist: “Greta’s Message Is Ridiculous”…”Something Of An End-Of-World Sect”

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 29, 2019

https://notrickszone.com/2019/10/29/world-leading-climate-scientist-gretas-message-is-ridiculous-something-of-an-end-of-world-sect/

Greta Thunberg turns down top environmental honor: ‘The climate doesn’t need awards’

By Owen Daugherty, The Hill, Oct 30, 2019

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/468062-greta-thunberg-turns-down-top-environmental-honor-the-climate

Communicating Better to the Public – Protest

Extinction Rebellion Co-Founder Calls For 1800 Protesters To Go To Prison

By Gaia Fawkes, His Blog Oct 28, 2019 [H/t GWPF]

https://order-order.com/2019/10/28/extinction-rebellion-co-founder-calls-1800-protesters-go-prison/

Climate protesters occupy Pelosi’s office over California fires

By Miranda Green, The Hill, Oct 30, 2019

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/468140-climate-protestors-occupy-pelosi-office-over-california-fires

Expanding the Orthodoxy

UN Climate Body Celebrates 11 Years Indoctrinating Future Business Leaders

Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 28, 2019

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/28/un-climate-body-celebrates-11-years-indoctrinating-future-business-leaders/

Academics Demand More Time Off From Work to Save Planet From Climate Change

By David Middleton, WUWT, Nov 1, 2019

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/01/academics-demand-more-time-off-from-work-to-save-planet-from-climate-change/

Why climate change activists are coming for your binge watch

By Hannah Sparks, New York Post Oct 28, 2019

https://nypost.com/2019/10/28/why-climate-change-activists-are-coming-for-your-binge-watch/

Link to paper: How to stop data centres from gobbling up the world’s electricity

The energy-efficiency drive at the information factories that serve us Facebook, Google and Bitcoin.

By Nicola Jones, Nature, Sep 13, 2019

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06610-y?utm_source=commission_junction&utm_medium=affiliate

[SEPP Comment: Data centers have made deals to buy electricity from solar or wind getting the support of the greens. Of course, no one discusses that data centers need reliable power and where they get that power when alternative sources fail, as they do frequently.]

Questioning European Green

German court rejects farmers’ legal challenge over Merkel climate policy

A Berlin court on Thursday threw out a case brought by three farmers against Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government over its failure to meet climate protection targets, hyped by campaigners as the first such legal challenge in Germany.

By Staff, AFP, The Local, DE, Oct 31, 2019

https://www.thelocal.de/20191031/german-court-rejects-farmers-legal-challenge-over-merkel-climate-policy

German City Of Aachen Cuts Down Over 600 Acres Of Natural Forests To Install Seven 200-Meter Tall Wind Turbines!

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 30, 2019

German City Of Aachen Cuts Down Over 600 Acres Of Natural Forest To Install Seven 200-Meter Tall Wind Turbines!

[SEPP Comment: Did the trees say: We all must sacrifice to save the environment?]

Questioning Green Elsewhere

“Electrify Everything” policies would eliminate gas heating and cooking

By Steve Goreham, The Invading Sea, Nov 1, 2019

https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2019/11/01/electrify-everything-policies-would-eliminate-gas-heating-and-cooking/

“Last year, from 2017 to 2018, renewable energy sources increased only from 8.6 percent to 8.7 percent of the country’s energy consumption. Between those two years, natural gas consumption rose from 28.7 percent to 30.6 percent of U.S. energy needs.”

Eco-imperialists impose a biomess on Africa

By Duggan Flanakin, WUWT, Oct 30, 2019

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/30/eco-imperialists-impose-a-biomess-on-africa/

Is it climate socialism – or eco-fascism?

By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Oct 28, 2019

Green New Deal climate alarm socialism is really intolerant, totalitarian eco-fascism

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/28/is-it-climate-socialism-or-eco-fascism/

Litigation Issues

The Shameless Hypocrisy Of Cities Suing For Climate Change ‘Damages’

By Horace Cooper, I & I, Oct 31, 2019

https://issuesinsights.com/2019/10/31/the-shameless-hypocrisy-of-cities-suing-for-climate-change-damages/

“A major driver of legal precedent denying the use of nuisance ordinances comes from an Obama-era Supreme Court ruling. In the 8-0 American Electric Power v. Connecticut decision in 2011, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that corporations cannot be sued for greenhouse gas emissions because the Clean Air Act specifically tasks the Environmental Protection Agency and Congress with the proper regulatory authority. Put another way, only the executive and legislative branches – not the judicial branch – may regulate and impose climate change policy.”

Green Fog: The Coming Climate Change Bond Crisis The Narrative vs. The Numbers: A GAI Investigation

By Staff, Government Accountability Institute, Oct 2019 [H/t WSJ]

http://www.g-a-i.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Green-Fog-Climate-Change-Report-GAI-Investigation.pdf?mod=article_inline

“Bonds are rated and their coupon interest rates are determined by financial officials in these cities who must disclose all significant risks to the value of the bonds, by law. Do bonds floated by cities at the greatest risks from climate change pay higher interest than bonds from cities at no risk?”

Massachusetts Sues Exxon Over Climate Change, Accusing the Oil Giant of Fraud

Exxon is facing allegations of deceptive advertising, misleading investors and actions that threaten the world economy. It’s already on trial in New York.

By David Hasemyer, Inside Climate News, Oct 25, 2019

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/24102019/massachusetts-sues-exxon-climate-change-investor-fraud-misleading-advertising-healey

NY AG Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Week

By Spencer Walrath, Energy in Depth, Oct 27, 2019

https://eidclimate.org/the-new-york-attorney-generals-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-week/

Tillerson denies that ExxonMobil defrauded investors

By Staff, AFP, Oct 31, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]

https://www.afp.com/en/news/15/tillerson-denies-exxonmobil-defrauded-investors-doc-1lv6kg2

Environmental groups sue Trump administration over drilling plan

By Rachel Franzin, The Hill, Oct 30, 2019

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/468254-environmental-groups-challenge-trump-administration-drilling-plan

“The Sierra Club and the Center for Biological Diversity sued the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) over the plan to open more than 700,000 acres of land to oil and gas lease sales.”

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes

Proof That Carbon Taxes Work

By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Oct 30, 2019

https://realclimatescience.com/2019/10/proof-that-carbon-taxes-work/

EPA and other Regulators on the March

Drexel researchers develop coal ash aggregate that helps concrete cure

By Staff Writers, Philadelphia PA (SPX), Oct 30, 2019

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Drexel_researchers_develop_coal_ash_aggregate_that_helps_concrete_cure_999.html

Link to paper: Potential use of lightweight aggregate (LWA) produced from bottom coal ash for internal curing of concrete systems

By Mohammad Balapour et al. Cement and Concrete Composites, Jan 2020

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0958946519301593?via%3Dihub

[SEPP Comment: See links immediately below.]

EPA to Roll Back Rules to Control Toxic Metals from Coal Plants

By Lisa Friedman, NYT, Via Seattle Times, Oct. 31, 2019 [H/t Cooler Heads]

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/epa-to-roll-back-rules-to-control-toxic-metals-from-coal-plants/

[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above. Proper disposal of coal ash is a continuing problem. Prohibiting its use in products such as concrete only adds to the problem. Contrary to the claims in the article, if market forces prevent coal-fired power plants, they will not be built.]

Energy Issues – Non-US

Smog-plagued Warsaw to limit access by car, coal heating

By Staff, AP, Oct 30, 2019

https://apnews.com/3590a79ad346408c853aac622ca0f2a5

“The city is also subsidizing families and small business with up to 200,000 zlotys ($52,000) when they change over highly-polluting coal heaters to non-coal ones.”

Tories ‘are set to announce ban on new fracking’: Moratorium to be unveiled amid concerns anger at the drilling could hit election hopes

By Jason Groves, Daily Mail, UK, Oct 31, 2019

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7632797/Tories-set-announce-ban-new-fracking.html

[SEPP Comment: Waving the green flag of surrender?]

Energy Issues – Australia

ScoMo [Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison] spends $1 billion on another band-aid subsidy for failing grid

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 30, 2019

http://joannenova.com.au/2019/10/scomo-spends-1-billion-on-another-band-aid-subsidy-for-failing-grid/#more-67110

“The Prime Minister’s office has announced $1 Billion boost for power reliability which translates as a billion dollars spent on emergency measures we wouldn’t need if we hadn’t spent billions recklessly and artificially on a transition we didn’t need to have.”

A Billion Reasons to Despair

By Alan Moran, Quadrant, Oct 30, 2019

https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2019/10/a-billion-reasons-to-despair/

“Subsidising more transmission might avert near term calamities of power outages but will do nothing to restore the once-prevailing low prices. Indeed, it will exacerbate longer term problems. Government financing of the delivery of electricity to the southern states, will deter new commercial investment.”

Energy Issues — US

The Incredible, Amazing Duck

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 29, 2019

https://ddears.com/2019/10/29/the-incredible-amazing-duck/

[SEPP Comment: Explaining the California Duck.]

Washington’s Control of Energy

New Freight Regulations Would Derail US Energy Independence

By Oliver McPherson-Smith, Real Clear Energy, Oct 30, 2019

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2019/10/30/new_freight_regulations_would_derail_us_energy_independence_110484.html

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

The “Oil Age” is doing just fine, Bloomberg New Energy Finance notwithstanding

By David Middleton, WUWT, Oct 31, 2019

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/31/the-oil-age-is-doing-just-fine-bloomberg-new-energy-finance-notwithstanding/

Democrats Just Accidentally Sparked A Federal Fracking Boom

By Nick Cunningham, Oil Price.com, Oct 30, 2019

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Democrats-Just-Accidentally-Sparked-A-Federal-Fracking-Boom.html

Return of King Coal?

Southeast Asia: Coal Demand To Double By 2040

By Staff, Bloomberg, Via GWPF, Oct 30, 2019

https://www.thegwpf.com/southeast-asia-coal-demand-to-double-by-2040/

Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences

Keystone pipeline spills more than 350,000 gallons of oil in North Dakota

By Owen Daugherty, The Hill, Oct 31, 2019

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/468353-keystone-pipeline-spills-over-350000-gallons-of-oil-in-north-dakota

Nuclear Energy and Fears

Be Cautious with the Precautionary Principle: Evidence from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident

By Matthew J. Neidell, Shinsuke Uchida, Marcella Veronesi, National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2019 [H/t Paul Homewood]

https://www.nber.org/papers/w26395

“We estimate that the increase in mortality from higher electricity prices [from closing nuclear power plants] outnumbers the mortality from the accident itself, suggesting the decision to cease nuclear production has contributed to more deaths than the accident itself.”

Democrats aim to protect Grand Canyon from ‘imminent’ drilling threat

By Miranda Green & Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Oct 29, 2019

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/467833-democrats-aim-to-protect-grand-canyon-from-imminent-drilling-threat

“The legislation, Grijalva said, is designed to guard against forthcoming recommendations from The White House’s Nuclear Fuel Working Group. As early as next month, the group of government officials could recommend mining uranium near the Grand Canyon.”

[SEPP Comment: Drilling for uranium? Such statements demonstrates the poor reporting of The Hill on The Hill.]

Viewpoint: The climate crisis demands a role for nuclear

By John Gorman, WNN, Oct 28, 2019

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Viewpoint-The-climate-crisis-demands-a-role-for-nu

[SEPP Comment: If no climate crisis, then no need for nuclear?]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Offshore Wind Outlook 2019, World Energy Outlook Special Report

Signed by Fatih Birol, Executive Director, EIA, Copenhagen, Oct 25, 2019

https://www.iea.org/offshorewind2019/ (main page – key findings)

https://www.iea.org/media/presentations/OffshoreWind-Launch-Presentation.pdf (media presentation – press release)

https://webstore.iea.org/offshore-wind-outlook-2019-world-energy-outlook-special-report (main report)

Wind Turbines and Land Fills

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Nov 1, 2019

https://ddears.com/2019/11/01/wind-turbines-and-land-fills/

[SEPP Comment: Bury them at sea?]

Energy & Environmental Newsletter

By John Droz, Jr. Master Resource, Oct 28, 2019

https://www.masterresource.org/alliance-for-wise-energy-decisions/energy-environmental-newsletter-10-28-2019/

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

Laos hydro project switched on along dried-out Mekong

By Staff Writers, Bangkok (AFP), Oct 29, 2019

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Laos_hydro_project_switched_on_along_dried-out_Mekong_999.html

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage

Even with a $6000 gift, people don’t want batteries with their solar: SA [South Australia] scheme fails

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 31, 2019

http://joannenova.com.au/2019/10/even-with-a-6000-gift-people-dont-want-batteries-with-their-solar-sa-scheme-fails/

Carbon Schemes

MIT engineers develop a new way to remove carbon dioxide from air

The process could work on the gas at any concentrations, from power plant emissions to open air

Press Release by David Chandler, MIT News Office, Oct 25, 2019

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-10/miot-med102519.php

“In some soft-drink bottling plants, fossil fuel is burned to generate the carbon dioxide needed to give the drinks their fizz. Similarly, some farmers burn natural gas to produce carbon dioxide to feed their plants in greenhouses. The new system could eliminate that need for fossil fuels in these applications, and in the process actually be taking the greenhouse gas right out of the air, Voskian says.”

California Dreaming

California Power Outages — A Look Into The Future

By Kerry Jackson, I & I, Oct 30, 2019

https://issuesinsights.com/2019/10/30/california-power-outages-a-look-into-the-future/

California Democrats waste billions on useless climate alarmist schemes while the state burns

By Staff, ICECAP, Oct 29, 2019

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/california_democrats_waste_billions_on_useless_climate_alarmist_schemes_whi/

List: The 20 largest wildfires in California history

Since modern record keeping began in the 1930s, California has had dozens of major fires

By Paul Rogers, The Mercury News, Oct 28, 2019

https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/10/28/list-the-20-largest-wildfires-in-california-history/

Hooray, California is on fire

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 30, 2019

https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/10/30/hooray-california-is-on-fire/

“Not, you’d think, cause for celebration. But the New York Times Magazine runs a piece by Abraham Lustgarten saying at least the blackouts in California driven by a desire not to start more wildfires with ‘faulty transmission lines’ has ‘has made the apocalyptic future of the climate crisis immediate and visceral for some of the nation’s most comfortable people. It is easy to ignore climate change in the bosom of the developed world. But you can’t fail to notice when the lights go out.’”

Jarrett Stepman: California blackouts are a self-inflicted mess – Don’t just blame PG&E for the new Dark Ages

By Jarrett Stepman, Fox News, Oct 28, 2019

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/california-blackouts-pge-jarrett-stepman

Health, Energy, and Climate

Scientocracy Busts Open the Motivation behind Global Warming Politics

By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Oct 28, 2019 [H/t John Dunn]

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2019/10/emscientocracyem_busts_open_the_motivation_behind_global_warming_politics.html

Where to install renewable energy in US to achieve greatest benefits

Models offer guidance for state and national policymakers designing climate action plans

Staff Writers, Space Daily, Oct 29, 2019

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/10/191029080721.htm

Climate and health benefits of increasing renewable energy deployment in the United States*

By Jonathan J Buonocore, et al, Environmental Research Letters

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab49bc

From the Abstract: “Total benefits ranged from $2.2 trillion for 3000 MW of wind in the Upper Midwest to $4.2 million for 100 MW of wind in California.”

“Health was a substantial portion of total benefits in nearly all regions of the US Benefits were sensitive to methane leakage throughout the gas supply chain.”

[SEPP Comment: Methane leakage from pipelines is a concern that these calculations make trivial. To say there is a problem with the calculations as stated in the abstract is an understatement.]

Environmental Industry

95% Of Baby Food Tainted With Toxic Metals? Don’t Panic

By Cameron English, ACSH, Oct 22, 2019

https://www.acsh.org/news/2019/10/22/95-baby-food-tainted-toxic-metals-dont-panic-14354

“For one thing, the study was conducted by the non-profit Healthy Babies Bright Futures (HBBF), which counts Environmental Working Group and Center for Environmental Health among its partners. These groups have turned scaring parents into a cottage industry.”

[SEPP Comment: Scaring parents is no longer a cottage industry but a big business.]

Block on GM rice ‘has cost millions of lives and led to child blindness’

By Robin McKie, The Guardian, UK, Oct 26, 2019 [H/t GWPF]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/26/gm-golden-rice-delay-cost-millions-of-lives-child-blindness

Climate Stalinism

Today’s radical green movement demands submission to an elite governing class—and its views are entering the mainstream

By Joel Kotkin, City Journal, Oct 25, 2019

https://www.city-journal.org/radical-green-movement

Other Scientific News

Apocalypse Not! How Science Is Distorted To Serve The Activist Agenda

By Henry I. Miller, I & I, Oct 28, 2019

https://issuesinsights.com/2019/10/28/apocalypse-not-how-science-is-distorted-to-serve-the-activist-agenda/

“Much of modern environmental activism, which owes more to zealotry than evidence, has spawned a nasty perversion — let’s call it the Pseudo-Scientific Method. As employed by environmental campaigners and the activist scientists who enable them, it has little to do with scientific discovery or the accumulation of knowledge; rather, it is ‘advocacy research’ that creates ‘evidence’ to support a pre-determined public policy — usually, inappropriate regulation or even bans.”

X-37B lands after 780 days in orbit

By Staff Writers, Washington DC (AFNS), Oct 27, 2019

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/X_37B_lands_after_780_days_in_orbit_999.html

Other News that May Be of Interest

Experts question study claiming to pinpoint birthplace of all humans

By Ann Gibbons, Science, Oct 28, 2019

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/10/experts-question-study-claiming-pinpoint-birthplace-all-humans

My Disastrous Meeting with the Soviets

On a 1983 conference of American Middle East experts and Soviet academics in Moscow

By Daniel Pipes, American Spectator, Via Daniel Pipes blog, Oct 30, 2019

http://www.danielpipes.org/19116/my-disastrous-meeting-with-the-soviets?utm_source=Middle+East+Forum&utm_campaign=041d1feec8-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_10_30_12_59&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_086cfd423c-041d1feec8-33640349

[SEPP Comment: Groupthink in action.]

Gee, Pain Pills Are Not Killers. And The Sun Rises In The East. Who Knew?

By Josh Bloom, ACSH, Oct 21, 2019

https://www.acsh.org/news/2019/10/21/gee-pain-pills-are-not-killers-and-sun-rises-east-who-knew-14349

Tech Giants Have Hijacked the Web. It’s Time For A Reboot

By Paul Vigna, WSJ, Via GWPF, Oct 10, 2019

https://www.thegwpf.com/tech-giants-have-hijacked-the-web-its-time-for-a-reboot/

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:

The Ship To Nowhere

By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Oct 31, 2019

https://realclimatescience.com/2019/10/the-ship-to-nowhere/

“Chile just cancelled the climate conference. These activists won’t get the opportunity to set civilization backwards by five centuries.”

[SEPP Comment: The ship sailed Oct 2]

Friday Funny: The complete Halloween climate scare roundup

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Nov 1, 2019

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/11/01/friday-funny-the-complete-halloween-climate-scare-roundup/

Treating Atmospheric Apocalyptic Anxiety

By Michael Kile, Quadrant, Oct 28, 2019

https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2019/10/treating-atmospheric-apocalyptic-anxiety/

New Video: The Big Switch

By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Oct 31, 2019

https://realclimatescience.com/2019/10/new-video-the-big-switch/

13-minute video on the fear of cooling changing to the fear of warming

ARTICLES

Senseless in Seattle

Students debate Seattle’s plan to ‘rehumanize’ K-12 mathematics with talk of ‘privilege’ and ‘oppression.’

Editorial, WSJ, Oct 29, 2019

https://www.wsj.com/articles/senseless-in-seattle-11572389070

TWTW Summary: A few of the responses to the Wall Street Journal question:

Editor’s note: This Future View is about Seattle’s plan to teach math with an ethnic-studies and social-justice twist.

‘Privilege’ and ‘Oppression’ Don’t Add Up

Coverage of the Seattle school district’s push to inject lessons of privilege, oppression and ethnic studies into K-12 math classes reads like the satirical writings of the Onion. Classroom questions such as “What is my mathematical identity?” and “Who gets to say if an answer is right?” make the curriculum into a joke.

The beauty of mathematics lies in its impartiality. Calculations can be misconstrued, but the numbers themselves are unbiased, representing factual, objective answers. Seattle’s curricular framework includes the question, “Can you advocate against oppressive mathematical practices?” But “oppressor” and “oppressed” share the same math—that’s the whole point.

Before this era of social-justice education, students may have read George Orwell’s dystopian novel “1984.” Winston Smith, the novel’s protagonist, is taught and ultimately convinced that “2 + 2 = 5.” Seattle educators, like the fictional regime in Orwell’s novel, hope to “complicate” whether an answer is right or wrong. How progressive!

— Aaron Schnoor, Campbell University, trust and wealth management

This Is Why We Need School Choice

If Seattle’s educators want to teach math with social-justice themes, that’s their decision. Education is best controlled at the local level. But parents should be given choices, too.

I’m willing to be persuaded that math should be taught differently. The remedial math courses at American universities are way too full for educators to say confidently they know how to teach math effectively in high school or earlier. Even if social-justice education doesn’t seem like the most promising solution, math should be taught in different ways at different schools—so long as parents and students can choose between schools to find the right fit.

School choice would help lower the stakes of curriculum decisions by expanding options. Seattle’s curricular framework is big news primarily because it threatens to trap a generation of children in social-justice math classes. There’s no reason for that. Seattle’s schools should teach math however they want, but they should also let parents enroll students wherever they want.

— Dominic Pino, George Mason University, economics

Revitalizing Math

Students often complain about math class because they fail to see its practical applications. That’s a shame—math is used in nearly every discipline. Introducing a holistic learning program that uses math to tell stories of power, privilege and oppression will make math a more engaging subject, encouraging students to pursue it further.

Social justice should be incorporated into mathematics education at a young age, helping to attract and form the next generation of social scientists. Calculating changes in incarceration rates over the course of the war on drugs is a good example of the practical use of math for facilitating discussion. Exposing children to the difficult realities of the world at a formative age is imperative to ending the covert racism and discrimination that is built into society. Students need to learn to think critically and identify problems in the systems that surround them, even if that provokes a bit of controversy.

Students need to learn to think critically and identify problems in the systems that surround them, even if that provokes a bit of controversy.

— Martin Ryan, Siena College, economics

Keep This Dogma Out

One of the central dogmas of social justice is that there are only two groups of people: the oppressors and the oppressed. Increasingly progressives sort people into these groups based on their race, sex, class or other identity groups. When incorporated into an educational curriculum, this ideology prods students to reduce other people to their identity groups—and ultimately to the binary of good and evil—rather than understand them as unique human beings.

The result is a dark, distorted view of our society that fosters unreasonable hostility and makes dialogue more difficult. It is troubling that our country’s youngest students, whose minds and views are most malleable, could be exposed to this ideology. Social-justice politics have no place in U.S. elementary and secondary schools, and especially not in math classes, which should be grounded in numerical reasoning and objective truth. The gloomy doctrine has already infected universities and, in many places, high schools. Following Seattle, will it now demand entry into primary schools, too?

— Jack Chapman, University of Texas at Austin, finance and government”

There were more responses reported