The Week That Was: 2019-10-05 (October 5, 2019)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week – “Man, once surrendering his reason, has no remaining guard against absurdities the most monstrous, and like a ship without rudder, is the sport of every wind. With such persons, gullibility, which they call faith, takes the helm from the hand of reason and the mind becomes a wreck.” —Thomas Jefferson (1822)
Number of the Week: Almost 64%
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Contradiction in Studies: The latest report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes, The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, contains many dire warnings of alarming sea level rise from oceans warming much faster than “previously thought” and Polar Ice melting much faster than “previously thought.” Of course, who “previously thought” what is not clear, though the word previously surely refers to a time when the “science was settled.”
In the approved Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC study are numerous graphs showing dire sea level rise of almost 5.5 meters (18 feet) by 2300 – 280 years from now.
Assessments of projected future changes in this report are based largely on CMIP5 climate model projections using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). RCPs are scenarios that include time series of emissions and concentrations of the full suite of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols and chemically active gases, as well as land use / land cover. RCPs provide only one set of many possible scenarios that would lead to different levels of global warming.
This report uses mainly RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in its assessment, reflecting the available literature. RCP2.6 represents a low greenhouse gas emission, high mitigation future, that in CMIP5 simulations gives a two in three chance of limiting global warming to below 2°C by 2100 15. By contrast, RCP8.5 is a high greenhouse gas emission scenario in the absence of policies to combat climate change, leading to continued and sustained growth in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Compared to the total set of RCPs, RCP8.5 corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. The underlying chapters also reference other scenarios, including RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 that have intermediate levels of greenhouse gas emissions and result in intermediate levels of warming. (p. SPM-7)
Table SPM.1 provides estimates of total warming since the pre-industrial period under four different RCPs for key assessment intervals used in SROCC. The warming from the 1850–1900 period until 1986–2005 has been assessed as 0.63°C (0.57 to 0.69°C likely range) using observations of near-surface air temperature over the ocean and over land. Consistent with the approach in AR5, modelled future changes in global mean surface air temperature relative to 1986– 2005 are added to this observed warming. (p. SPM 7-8)
For the lowest scenario, a table shows that the near term (2031 to 2050) likely warning increase in temperatures is 1.1 to 2.0 degrees C (2 to 3.5 ºF) and the end-of-century (2081 to 2100) is 0.9 to 2.4 degrees C (1.6 to 4.3 ºF note the projecting a cooling in the lower extreme from 2050 to 2100).
Correspondingly, for the highest scenario, the table shows that the near term (2031 to 2050) likely warning increase in temperatures is 1.5 to 2.4 degrees C (2.7 to 4.3 ºF) and the end-of-century (2081 to 2100) is 3.2 to 5.4 degrees C (5.8 to 9.7 ºF).
Further, the SPM states assuredly that:
It is virtually certain that the global ocean has warmed unabated since 1970 and has taken up more than 90% of the excess heat in the climate system (high confidence). Since 1993, the rate of ocean warming has more than doubled (likely). Marine heatwaves have very likely doubled in frequency since 1982 and are increasing in intensity (very high confidence). By absorbing more CO2, the ocean has undergone increasing surface acidification (virtually certain). A loss of oxygen has occurred from the surface to 1000 m (medium confidence). (p. SPM-8) [Boldface italics in original.]
Global mean sea level (GMSL) is rising, with acceleration in recent decades due to increasing rates of ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (very high confidence), as well as continued glacier mass loss and ocean thermal expansion. Increases in tropical cyclone winds and rainfall, and increases in extreme waves, combined with relative sea level rise, exacerbate extreme sea level events and coastal hazards (high confidence) (p. SPM-10)
There is a problem with the statement that it is virtually certain that global oceans have persistently warmed: a key study used has been retracted for statistical errors. After persistent efforts by independent researcher Nic Lewis, retired from finance with a background in mathematics and statistics, Nature has withdrawn the paper known as Resplandy, et al. The retraction notice states:
“Shortly after publication, arising from comments from Nicholas Lewis, we realized that our reported uncertainties were underestimated owing to our treatment of certain systematic errors as random errors. In addition, we became aware of several smaller issues in our analysis of uncertainty. Although correcting these issues did not substantially change the central estimate of ocean warming, it led to a roughly fourfold increase in uncertainties, significantly weakening implications for an upward revision of ocean warming and climate sensitivity. Because of these weaker implications, the Nature editors asked for a Retraction, which we accept. Despite the revised uncertainties, our method remains valid and provides an estimate of ocean warming that is independent of the ocean data underpinning other approaches. The revised paper, with corrected uncertainties, will be submitted to another journal. The Retraction will contain a link to the new publication, if and when it is published.” [From a post by Lewis in Climate Etc.]
Despite the assertion in the retraction, whether the central estimate of ocean warming is accurate remains open. However, the virtual certainty claimed by the IPCC is unsupported. The IPCC has the excuse that it does not do research and relies on peer-reviewed journals. As demonstrated by the correspondence revealed in Climategate, the quality of the peer-review is questionable. Also, the selection of research used by the IPCC is questionable. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy.
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Further Issues With the IPCC: Writing in Quadrant Online, Australian geologist Michael Kile discusses a number of other issues concerning the latest IPCC report and the claims of some of its authors. As Kile states:
“The assessment reports are described as ‘neutral, policy relevant but not policy prescriptive’. Translation: we are not telling you what to do but encourage you to do what we are telling you. They are drafted and reviewed in several stages. This byzantine process with its own jargon – ‘a calibrated language for the communication of confidence’ – apparently ensures ‘objectivity and transparency’. The IPCC does not conduct its own research.”
Kile illustrates how byzantine the process is by discussing a September 26 interview of Professor Matthew England, Deputy Director of the UNSW Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC) in Sydney, and a contributing author on two earlier IPCC Assessment Reports, broadcast by the government controlled Australian Broadcasting Company. The subject was “tipping points.”
[Interviewer] Eleanor Hall: So, you’re saying that even scientists are often not aware of when we’re approaching a tipping point?
Professor England: Yes. Tipping points come about due to the non-linearity of the [climate] system. What I mean by that is you get a small change triggering a larger impact. You can get breaking up of an ice sheet and a rate of sea-level rise that we are [initially] comfortable to adapt to. At the moment, we have had only 15 cm of sea-level rise over the last 30 to 40 years. That has already caused a lot of damage to the coast. But 15cm is a very tiny fraction of the five metres being forecast by 2300. (3.55min.)
I should say 2300 does sound like a long, long time away but it’s only six or seven generations. That’s why we’re seeing all these protests from students today. They’re recognising the fact that we’re leaving them with a huge debt. [Underline in original]
So, without physical evidence that a global warming “tipping point” even exists, Professor England is claiming we are approaching one by 2300. Further, TWTW strongly disagrees with the “15 cm of sea-level rise over the last 30 to 40 years.” On average, sea levels are rising by no more than 8 inches (20 cm) per century. For Kile’s further comments on the latest IPCC report see links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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What Is Science? Reviewing IPCC reports, and reports from its followers such as the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), prompts the questions whether the authors even know what modern science is. What are its processes, and what are its limits? There are numerous textbook answers to this question, but not completely satisfactory.
Possibly the most comprehensive and understandable answer came in a lecture by Nobel Laureate in Physics Richard Feynman, a brilliant lecturer who insisted on teaching students. Feynman addressed this critical question at the fifteenth annual meeting of the National Science Teachers Association in 1966 in a humorous, self-depreciating manner. The salient conclusion is:
“So there came a time, perhaps, when for some species [humans?] the rate at which learning was increased, reached such a pitch that suddenly a completely new thing happened: things could be learned by one individual animal, passed on to another, and another fast enough that it was not lost to the race. Thus, became possible an accumulation of knowledge of the race.
“This has been called time-binding. I don’t know who first called it this. At any rate, we have here [in this hall] some samples of those animals, sitting here trying to bind one experience to another, each one trying to learn from the other.
“This phenomenon of having a memory for the race, of having an accumulated knowledge passable from one generation to another, was new in the world–but it had a disease in it: it was possible to pass on ideas which were not profitable for the race. The race has ideas, but they are not necessarily profitable.
“So, there came a time in which the ideas, although accumulated very slowly, were all accumulations not only of practical and useful things, but great accumulations of all types of prejudices, and strange and odd beliefs.
“Then a way of avoiding the disease was discovered. This is to doubt that what is being passed from the past is in fact true, and to try to find out ab initio [from the beginning] again from experience what the situation is, rather than trusting the experience of the past in the form in which it is passed down. And that is what science is: the result of the discovery that it is worthwhile rechecking by new direct experience, and not necessarily trusting the [human] race[‘s] experience from the past. I see it that way. That is my best definition.
“I would like to remind you all of things that you know very well in order to give you a little enthusiasm. In religion, the moral lessons are taught, but they are not just taught once, you are inspired again and again, and I think it is necessary to inspire again and again, and to remember the value of science for children, for grown-ups, and everybody else, in several ways; not only [so] that we will become better citizens, more able to control nature and so on.”
After discussing beauty in science, Feynman further states:
“Another of the qualities of science is that it teaches the value of rational thought as well as the importance of freedom of thought; the positive results that come from doubting that the lessons are all true. You must here distinguish–especially in teaching–the science from the forms or procedures that are sometimes used in developing science. It is easy to say, “We write, experiment, and observe, and do this or that.” You can copy that form exactly. But great religions are dissipated by following form without remembering the direct content of the teaching of the great leaders. In the same way, it is possible to follow form and call it science, but that is pseudo-science. In this way, we all suffer from the kind of tyranny we have today in the many institutions that have come under the influence of pseudoscientific advisers.
“We have many studies in teaching, for example, in which people make observations, make lists, do statistics, and so on, but these do not thereby become established science, established knowledge. They are merely an imitative form of science analogous to the South Sea Islanders’ airfields–radio towers, etc., made out of wood. The islanders expect a great airplane to arrive. They even build wooden airplanes of the same shape as they see in the foreigners’ airfields around them, but strangely enough, their wood planes do not fly. The result of this pseudoscientific imitation is to produce experts, which many of you are. [But] you teachers, who are really teaching children at the bottom of the heap, can maybe doubt the experts. As a matter of fact, I can also define science another way: Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”
“When someone says, “Science teaches such and such,” he is using the word incorrectly. Science doesn’t teach anything; experience teaches it. If they say to you, “Science has shown such and such,” you might ask, “How does science show it? How did the scientists find out? How? What? Where?”
“It should not be “science has shown” but “this experiment, this effect, has shown.” And you have as much right as anyone else, upon hearing about the experiments–but be patient and listen to all the evidence–to judge whether a sensible conclusion has been arrived at.
“In a field which is so complicated [as education] that true science is not yet able to get anywhere, we have to rely on a kind of old-fashioned wisdom, a kind of definite straightforwardness. I am trying to inspire the teacher at the bottom to have some hope and some self-confidence in common sense and natural intelligence. The experts who are leading you may be wrong.
“I have probably ruined the system, and the students that are coming into Caltech no longer will be any good. I think we live in an unscientific age in which almost all the buffeting of communications and television–words, books, and so on–are unscientific. As a result, there is a considerable amount of intellectual tyranny in the name of science.”
The freedom to question is missing in climate science, and it has become an intellectual tyranny. This description applies to US government entities as well as the IPCC. See links under Censorship and Seeking a Common Ground.
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Number of the Week: Almost 64% — According to the EIA:
“Heat rate is one measure of the efficiency of electrical generators/power plants that convert a fuel into heat and into electricity. The heat rate is the amount of energy used by an electrical generator/power plant to generate one kilowatthour (kWh) of electricity.” The heat rate is (but for the units) the reciprocal of efficiency. The EIA measures heat in units of British Thermal Units (BTU). One kWh, dissipated as heat, is equivalent to 3,412 BTU. So, a typical heat rate for electrical generation is given as 9,000 BTU/kWh, equivalent to an efficiency of 39%.
According to press releases, the latest in the current line of GE combined cycle gas turbines have a net efficiency approaching 64%, a level being approached by competitors Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems and Siemens Gas and Power. See link under Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past? and https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=107&t=3
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Cosmic Rays Are Nearing a Space Age Record
By Staff, Spaceweather.com, Oct 3, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=03&month=10&year=2019
55 New (2019) Scientific Papers Link Solar Activity To Climate Change
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 3, 2019
Svensmark on Venus: Mystery of the Unknown UV Absorber Solved?
By John Tillman, WUWT, Oct 3, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/03/svensmark-on-venus-mystery-of-the-unknown-uv-absorber-solved/
[SEPP Comment: Holes in the claim that Venus is an example of runaway greenhouse effect.]
Censorship
The University of Washington Should Not Censor Faculty Social Media
By Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog, Oct 1, 2019
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-university-of-washington-should-not.html
“Another faculty member, who was originally from China and lived through the Cultural Revolution told me it was exactly like the shaming sessions of Maoist China, with young Red Guards criticizing and shaming elders they wanted to embarrass and remove.”
The Climate Inquisition
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Oct 3, 2019
https://realclimatescience.com/2019/10/back-to-the-dark-ages-of-science/
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/publications/SeaLevelRiseCCRII.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy
The IPCC’s Seldom Mentioned ‘Uncertainties’
By Michael Kile, Quadrant, Oct 5, 2019
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2019/10/the-ipccs-seldom-mentioned-uncertainties/
Why Haven’t the Tropics Warmed Much? A Tantalizing Piece of Evidence
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 28, 2019
Resplandy et al. Part 5: Final outcome
By Nic Lewis, Climate Etc. Sep 25, 2019
https://judithcurry.com/2019/09/25/resplandy-et-al-part-5-final-outcome/#more-25271
Top climate scientist breaks ranks with ‘consensus’
‘Our models are Mickey-Mouse mockeries of the real world’
By Art Moore, World Net Daily (WND), Sep 30, 2019
https://www.wnd.com/2019/09/top-climate-scientist-breaks-ranks-consensus/
Net-Zero Carbon Dioxide Emissions By 2050 Requires A New Nuclear Power Plant Every Day
By Roger Pielke, Forbes, Sep 30, 2019
Confessions of a climate scientist
By Larry Kummer, Fabius Maximus website, Oct 1, 2019
https://fabiusmaximus.com/2019/10/01/confessions-of-a-climate-scientist/
[SEPP Comment: Excerpts from Confessions of a climate scientist (2019) by Mototaka Nakamura.]
New Video : “The Earth Began In 1960”
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Oct 4, 2019
https://realclimatescience.com/2019/10/new-video-the-earth-began-in-1960/
[SEPP Comment: Demonstrating the art of chartsmanship, choosing dates so the straight lines will show the desired direction.]
Understanding the Climate Movement Part 2: Noble Cause Corruption.
By Paul Rossiter, WUWT, Oct 2, 2019
“George Orwell was very prescient in his book 1984:
“’Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship’”.
Defending the Orthodoxy
The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
This Summary for Policymakers was formally approved at the Second Joint Session of Working Groups I and II of the IPCC and accepted by the 51th Session of the IPCC, Principality of Monaco, 24th September 24, 2019
Summary for Policymakers
https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_SPM_Approved.pdf
‘I would like people to panic’ – Top scientist unveils equation showing world in climate emergency
By Staff, Horizon, The EU Research Y Innovation Magazine, Sep 24, 2019 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
“Prof. Schellnhuber, founder of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, has devised a formula that defines the level of emergency as risk multiplied by urgency. To calculate risk, he used the insurance industry’s approach of multiplying the amount of damage done by the probability of the event. For urgency, he followed the model used by air traffic controllers, which divides the time needed to react by time left for intervention.”
“‘If we go into a runaway climate effect, the damage may be between €100 trillion and the loss of civilisation,’ he said. ‘The probability, I would say, is about 10% that this is going to happen. And when it comes to the urgency of decarbonising society and keeping the forests alive, we need at least 20 years. We have only 30 years left to do this.”
[SEPP Comment: If the probability approaches zero, it all becomes a waste.]
German Public Television Editor, Green Party Leader Calling For A Little Dictatorship To Solve The ‘Climate Crisis’
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 1, 2019
Today’s Pickup: The Netherlands is shutting Europe’s largest gas field in a push for renewables
By Vishnu Rajamanickam, Staff Writer, Freight Waves, Oct 3, 2019 [H/t Craig McCluskey]
South African Climate Activist Desmond Tutu Calls for Fossil Fuel to be Outlawed
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 3, 2019
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The Cynical Plot behind Global Warming Hysteria
By John Eidson, American Thinker, Sep 30, 2019 [H/t John Dunn]
Climate emergency? Not here, not now!
By Paul Homewood, The Conservative Woman, September 30, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/climate-emergency-not-here/
“While daily temperature extremes are not rising at the top of the scale, extremely cold days have become much less common. In short, UK temperatures have become less extreme.”
The Problem with ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming’
By Ferdinand Bardamu, American Thinker, Oct 4, 2019
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2019/10/the_problem_with_anthropogenic_global_warming.html
‘There Is No Climate Emergency’: Scientists Call for Reasoned Debate
By Richard Trupek, The Epoch Times, Oct 2, 2019 [H/t Cooler Heads]
“Two: ‘Climate models have many shortcomings and are not remotely plausible as policy tools. Moreover, they most likely exaggerate the effect of greenhouse gases such as CO2. In addition, they ignore the fact that enriching the atmosphere with CO2 is beneficial.’”
Oh that climate strike
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 2, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/10/02/oh-that-climate-strike/
Activist biologist filled with eco-anxiety shares unfounded fear of polar bear catastrophe
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 29, 2019
After Paris!
The UN asked for climate plans. Major economies failed to answer
Delivering on a goal of net zero emissions is a ‘daunting’, ‘civilisational’ task, which a summit on Monday showed leaders do not have plans to meet
By Chloe Farand, Climate Home News, Sep 24, 2019 [H/t Cooler Heads]
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/09/24/un-asked-climate-plans-major-economies-failed-answer/
“What you are starting to see is governments reorganising themselves,” Kyte said [the UN secretary general’s special representative for sustainable energy]
[SEPP Comment: For what?]
Big Gov Octopus squeezes Russia into sending very mixed messages
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 30, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/09/big-gov-octopus-squeezes-russia-into-sending-very-mixed-messages/
“Because of the fallout from the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s emissions are 25% less than they were in 1990. So Putin could brag about that if he wanted too. Doesn’t count for anything though. It’s not how much CO2 you produce, it’s how much you say you care about it….”
Climate Champion China Ramping Up Government Funding for Fossil Fuel
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 29, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/29/climate-champion-china-ramping-up-subsidies-for-coal-and-gas/
[SEPP Comment: Presenting the real dilemma for greens: if renewable energy is cheaper than coal, even without government subsidies and assistance, as many green organizations claim, why is China financing so many coal-fired power plants?]
Change in US Administrations
Here’s How Trump’s Environmental Legacy Stacks Up With Obama’s Record
By Chris White, Daily Caller, Sep 27, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.dailycaller.com/2019/09/27/trump-obama-environment-legacies/
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Nothing to sea here
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 2, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/10/02/nothing-to-sea-here/
“Although Lewis has published a number of technical papers in climatology journals, were he to speak to a typical Canadian reporter on the subject, he’d be shut down because he’s precisely the sort of “amateur” journalists insist has no business discussing the subject. They’d sniff that ‘he’s not a climatologist.’”
Is climate alarmism tearing itself apart?
By David Wojick, CFACT, Sep 28, 2019
https://www.cfact.org/2019/09/28/is-climate-alarmism-tearing-itself-apart/
Seeking a Common Ground
What is Science?
By Richard Feynman, Blog, The Physics Teacher vol 7, issue 6, 1969, Accessed Oct 5, 2019
http://www.feynman.com/science/what-is-science/
The “climate doom” timeline
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 29, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/29/the-climate-doom-timeline/
Listen to the scientists
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 2, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/10/02/listen-to-the-scientists/
[SEPP Comment: Brief review of past predictions that failed.]
New research puts Australia at forefront of blue carbon economy
In world-first research, Edith Cowan University researchers and an international team of collaborators have accurately quantified the amount of greenhouse gasses — or ‘blue carbon’ — being absorbed and emitted by Australian marine ecosystems
Press Release, Edith Cowan University, AU, Oct 1, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-10/ecu-nrp092619.php
Link to paper: Australian vegetated coastal ecosystems as global hotspots for climate change mitigation
By Oscar Serrano, et al. Nature Communications, Oct 2, 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12176-8
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Elevated CO2 Stimulates Earthworm Growth in a Sweetgum Forest Plantation
Sánchez-de León, Y., Wise, D.H., Lugo-Pérez, J., Norby, R.J., James, S.W. and Gonzalez-Meler, M.A. 2018. Endogeic earthwork densities increase in response to higher fine-root production in a forest exposed to elevated CO2. Soil Biology and Biochemistry 122: 31-38. Oct 4, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/oct/a3.php
Elevated CO2 Helps Mitigate the Negative Effects of Water Stress on Soybean Growth and Yield
Wang, A., Lam, S.K., Hao, X., Li, F.Y., Zong, Y., Wang, H. and Li, P. 2018. Elevated CO2 reduces the adverse effects of drought stress on a high-yielding soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) cultivar by increasing water use efficiency. Plant Physiology and Biochemistry 132: 660-665. Oct 3, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/oct/a2.php
Elevated CO2 Helps Ameliorate Salinity Stress in Cucumber
Li, S., Li, Y., He, X., Li, Q., Liu, B. and Ai, X. 2019. Response of water balance and nitrogen assimilation in cucumber seedlings to CO2 enrichment and salt stress. Plant Physiology and Biochemistry 139: 256-263. Oct 2, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/oct/a1.php
Two Decades of CO2 Enrichment Data for a North American Grassland Ecosystem
Pastore, M.A., Lee, T.D., Hobbie, S.E. and Reich, P.B. 2019. Strong photosynthetic acclimation and enhanced water-use efficiency in grassland functional groups persist over 21 years of CO2 enrichment, independent of nitrogen supply. Global Change Biology 25: 3031-3044. Sep 30, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/sep/a17.php
The Response of 24 Soybean Cultivars to Elevated CO2
Li, Y., Yu, Z., Yang, S., Jin, J., Wang, G., Liu, C., Herbert, S.J. and Liu, X. 2019. Soybean intraspecific genetic variation in response to elevated CO2. Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science 65: 1733-1744. Sep 27, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/sep/a16.php
Projecting Future Winter Wheat Yields in the North China Plain
Rashid, M.A., Jabloun, M., Andersen, M.N., Zhang, X. and Olesen, J.E. 2019. Climate change is expected to increase yield and water use efficiency of wheat in the North China Plain. Agricultural Water Management 222: 193-203. Sep 26, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/sep/a15.php
Measurement Issues — Surface
Who knew? The Australian Bureau of Met (BOM) just made last summer hotter, and history colder (again)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 2, 2019
“The cheapest way to prevent man-made global warming is stop the BOM altering the data.”
Australia: 2019 was not the hottest summer say satellites — it was just as hot in 1991
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 4, 2019
Which expert put a thermometer on a hot tin roof for 40 years?
By Ken Stewart, Jo Nova’s Blog, Oct 3, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/10/which-expert-put-a-thermometer-on-a-hot-tin-roof-for-40-years/
Messing With Texas
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Oct 4, 2019
https://realclimatescience.com/2019/10/messing-with-texas-3/
[SEPP Comment: NOAA’s National Climate Data Center cooking the records.]
Climate Emergency Tour: Hamilton Edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 2, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/10/02/climate-emergency-tour-hamilton-edition/
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Record Antarctic Stratospheric Warming Causes Sept. 2019 Global Temperature Update Confusion
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 4, 2019
UAH Global Temperature Update for September, 2019: +0.61 deg. C (see update, below)
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 1, 2019
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/10/uah-global-temperature-update-for-september-2019-0-61-deg-c/
September 2019: Maps and Graphs
By Staff, Earth System Science Center, UAH, Oct 2019
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/
Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2019/september/201909_map.png
Graph: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2019/september/tlt_201909_bar.png
[SEPP Comment: See the two links immediately above.]
A new satellite to understand how Earth is losing its cool
By Staff Writers, European Space Agency, Sep 24, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
[SEPP Comment: If the data do not support dangerous global warming, will the EU use them?]
Changing Weather
Rainfall Trends in India Show No Climate Fatigue
By Vijay Jayaraj, WUWT, Oct 3, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/03/rainfall-trends-in-india-show-no-climate-fatigue/
“The rainfall pattern in India has never been stable. There have been small epochal trends lasting a few decades, but their onset is unpredictable.”
Snowing on their parade
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 2, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/10/02/snowing-on-their-parade/
Changing Climate
Dust in ice cores leads to new knowledge on the advancement of the ice before the ice age
Press Release, University of Copenhagen [H/t WUWT]
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-10/uoc-dii100419.php
“It is a precondition for the feasibility of the method that bare land exists in the vicinity of the drill site, so dust particles can be found. This was the case during the last interglacial as the temperature then, app. 115,000 years ago, was up to 8 degrees C. warmer than today, according to a former study from the Niels Bohr Institute.”
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
2019 Arctic Ice Demise Deferred Again
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Oct 1, 2019
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2019/10/02/2019-arctic-ice-demise-deferred-again/
Wadhams Wrong Again!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 4, 2019
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/10/04/wadhams-wrong-again-2/
New Study: Modern Arctic Sea Ice Cover Is Present MONTHS Longer Than Nearly All Of The Last 8000 Years
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 30, 2019
Link to paper: Evolution of sea‐surface conditions on the northwestern Greenland margin during the Holocene
By Myriam Caron, et al. Journal of Quaternary Science, Accepted August 23, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Note that the study applies to a section of northwestern Greenland.]
Changing Earth
Eocene Climatic Optima: Another Clean Kill of Carbon Dioxide-Driven Climate Change Hypothesis?
Guest geology by David Middleton, WUWT, Sep 30, 2019
“When I was studying geology, way back when The Ice Age Cometh in the 1970’s, we were taught to avoid getting hooked on paradigms or ‘ruling theories’. Geology, as a science, has very few unique solutions.”
Four earthquakes rattle Texas in less than 24 hours, geologists say
By Dawson White, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Oct 1, 2019
https://www.star-telegram.com/news/nation-world/national/article235663322.html
Lowering Standards
Forbes: Global Warming to Blame But Definitely Not Linked to Early Snow in the Rockies
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 30, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Ocean plastic waste probably comes from ships, report says
By Ivan Couronne, Washington (AFP), Sept 30, 2019
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Ocean_plastic_waste_probably_comes_from_ships_report_says_999.html
“Many of the plastic bottles had been crushed with their tops screwed on tight, as is customary onboard ships to save space, said report author Peter Ryan, director of the FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology at the University of Cape Town in South Africa.”
[SEPP Comment: Is the practice common to recycling programs in the EU?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Shellfish growers fight to keep species thriving amid rising acid levels in Puget Sound
Growers at Taylor Shellfish farms in Jefferson County are working to keep shellfish alive, by testing water for acid levels and growing algae for them to eat.
By Eric Wilkinson, K5 News, Seattle, Sep 30, 2019 [H/t Ken Schlichte]
“Rising acid levels in Puget Sound due to climate change are threatening the Northwest’s shellfish population,…”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
‘Stop Scaring the Children’
By Steven Moore, Townhall, Oct 1, 2019
New polar bear horror emerges out of advice to parents on eco-anxiety in kids
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 29, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Vladimir Putin: Greta Thunberg Is a ‘Poorly Informed Teenager’
By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Oct 3, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2019/10/03/putin-greta-thunberg-is-a-poorly-informed-teenager/
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Luckily you have no soldiers anyway
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 2, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/10/02/luckily-you-have-no-soldiers-anyway/
[SEPP Comment: Fuel efficient tanks?]
Questioning European Green
Poland stokes dispute over net-zero emissions price and meaning
By Sam Morgan, EURACTIV.com, Oct 3, 2019
Dutch Farmers’ Uprising Is Latest Signal Europeans Are Getting Fed Up With Environmental Overreach
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 2, 2019
Farmers — tired of being blamed for climate change — drive tractor convoy to The Hague, causing record-breaking rush hour in the Netherlands
A plow on the front of one tractor was spray-painted with the words, ‘How dairy you’
By Breck Dumas, The Blaze, Oct 1, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The Liberals’ Covert Green Plan for Canada – Poverty and Dictatorship
By Allan M.R. MacRae, WUWT, Oct 1, 2019
Green Dream to End Fossil Fuels Also Means Going without Plastics
By Brian Tomlinson, American Thinker, Oct 2, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Use paper instead? Trees for fuel, trees for paper, any trees left?]
No Need to Greenwash: Fossil Fuels Winning (Kudos to Chris Skates, Southern States Energy Board)
Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Oct 2, 2019
“There is no need to greenwash. There is reason to wholly reject the so-called Green New Deal. Wind turbines, solar panels (on-grid), electric vehicles, and ethanol (past the oxygenate additive) are no match for what consumers naturally prefer.”
Funding Issues
George Soros Emerges as Major Funder of ‘Global Climate Strike’ Groups
By Thomas Williams, Breitbart, Sep 28, 2019
Litigation Issues
Dundee Law
By Andrew Montford, GWPF, Sep 30, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/dundee-law/
“’Lawfare’ – the practice of seeking climate reparations through novel litigation approaches – is a growing enthusiasm among the climate-concerned, so the recent conference on the subject at the University of Dundee Law School promised to be a fascinating chance to see what was going on in the field.”
“I came away from the conference with the impression of having been embedded in the middle of the metropolitan elite for a couple of days: comfortable, well-fed, intellectually cocooned, and either oblivious or contemptuous of the outside world and its manifold hopes and desires. They will seek to make the law work in the favour, regardless of what voters choose. If you are among the world’s poor, or among the world’s democrats, these are dangerous people.”
You do it your way, and…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 2, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/10/02/you-do-it-your-way-and/
Dominion’s Atlantic Coast Pipeline Gets Supreme Court Hearing (2)
By Ellen Gilmer, Bloomberg, Oct 4, 2019
“The U.S. Supreme Court will consider jump-starting Dominion Energy Inc.’s proposed $7.5 billion Atlantic Coast Pipeline, agreeing to rule on a key permit that would let the natural-gas line cross under the Appalachian Trail.”
[SEPP Comment: If the US Forest Service, which owns the land in the specific location does not have the authority to permit a crossing of the Appalachian Trail, who does? No one?]
Courts Question Pipeline Builders’ Use of Eminent Domain to Take Land
Advocates argue the rush of natural gas pipelines isn’t what eminent domain was meant for. One ruling gives states a new way to challenge pipeline plans.
By Phil McKenna, Inside Climate News, Oct 2, 2019
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Activist Updates Climate Attribution Study to Aid Climate Lawsuits
By Spencer Walrath, Energy in Depth, Oct 1, 2019
https://eidclimate.org/activist-updates-climate-attribution-study-to-aid-climate-lawsuits/
Link to report: Carbon Majors: Updating activity data, adding entities, & calculating emissions: A Training Manual
By Richard Heede, Climate Accountability Institute, Sep 30, 2019
http://climateaccountability.org/pdf/TrainingManual%20CAI%2030Sep19hires.pdf
“I wish to thank my colleagues at Union of Concerned Scientists who encouraged me to write this Training Manual …”
“I also want to acknowledge the crucial nature of philanthropic funding from Wallace Global Fund and Rockefeller Brothers Fund.”
Bears Ears lawsuit to proceed, federal judge rules
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 1, 2019
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Northeast states takes first step in effort to reduce transportation emissions
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Oct 1, 2019
“At the heart of the draft proposal is an effort that would place pollution limits on middlemen who bring gasoline to U.S. consumers, forcing those companies to buy credits to compensate for pollution that will stem from their products.”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Trump announces deal to boost demand for ethanol, in boon for farmers
By Josh Siegel, Washington Examiner, Oct 4, 2019
Energy Issues – Non-US
Our climate policies: Futile and shockingly expensive
By Ruth Lea, the Conservative Woman, Sep 27, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/our-climate-policies-futile-and-shockingly-expensive/
[SEPP Comment: A review of possible costs of UK decarbonization, with little real benefits.]
Centrica to use customers’ hot water tanks to stop blackouts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 4, 2019
Buried beneath Brexit: Boris’s bonkers boiler ban
By Ben Pile, The Conservative Woman, Sep 30, 2019 [H/t Paul Homewood]
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/buried-beneath-brexit-boriss-bonkers-boiler-ban/
How Britain ended its coal addiction
The shift in the UK is an important victory for environmentalists in their fight against fossil fuels
By Nathalie Thomas, Leslie Hook, and Chris Tighe, Financial Times, Oct 1, 2019
https://www.ft.com/content/a05d1dd4-dddd-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc
[SEPP Comment: No discussion of cost to the consumer.]
Wind Power Fluctuating Wildly Today
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 4, 2019
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/10/04/wind-power-fluctuating-wildly-today/
“I have yet to see a rational explanation as to how CCGT can be replaced in this role of grid balancing from anybody in charge of our energy policy.”
Energy Issues — US
Cuomo’s war on pipelines has truly perverse results
Editorial, New York Post, Sep 26, 2019
https://nypost.com/2019/09/26/cuomos-war-on-pipelines-has-truly-perverse-results/
[SEPP Comment: Ban the safest way of transporting natural gas, then less safe ways will be found.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Trump administration pushes for Arctic drilling by arguing ‘there is not a climate crisis’
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Sep 30, 2019
Trump administration ends five-year oil and gas drilling moratorium in California
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Oct 4, 2019
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Peak Oil Postponed… Again: US EIA International Energy Outlook
By David Middleton, WUWT, Oct 1, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/01/peak-oil-postponed-again-us-eia-international-energy-outlook/
How ‘Climate Week’ Completely Missed The Boat On Natural Gas
By Jude Clemente, Forbes, Sep 26, 2016
US Shale Production Is Set For A Steep Decline
By Nick Cunningham, Oil Price.com, Oct 1, 2019
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Shale-Production-Is-Set-For-A-Steep-Decline.html
[SEPP Comment: Growth has plateaued; therefore, production will decline?]
GE Unveils New H-Class Gas Turbine—and Already Has a First Order
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Oct 2, 2019
“Because it integrates the latest advancements in manufacturing technology, and benefits from refined technology from previous models, the 7HA.03 will have a net combined cycle efficiency of 63.9%, which is a 0.4 percentage increase over its forerunner, the 7HA.02.”
Return of King Coal?
Coal to remain ‘King’ in Southeast Asia
By David Middleton, WUWT, Oct 4, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/04/coal-to-remain-king-in-southeast-asia/
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Childish Fantasies vs Real World Energy Needs
Transforming the world’s energy system is a vast undertaking. Of colossal proportions.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Oct 2, 2019
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2019/10/02/childish-fantasies-vs-real-world-energy-needs/
Those who “dream of powering society entirely with wind and solar farms” says Mills, are actually demanding “the biggest expansion in mining the world has seen.”
SF6: how unknown greenhouse gas may almost match, maybe trump the known one
By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, Oct 4, 2019
https://motls.blogspot.com/2019/10/sf6-how-unknown-greenhouse-gas-may.html
Energy & Environmental Newsletter: September 30, 2019
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Sep 30, 2019
https://www.masterresource.org/uncategorized/energy-environmental-newsletter-september-30-2019/
Wind Turbines in Court: What Are the Issues?
By Sherri Lange, Master Resource, Oct 3, 2019
https://www.masterresource.org/uncategorized/wind-turbines-in-court-what-are-the-issues/
How to ditch a used windmill
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 2, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/10/02/how-to-ditch-a-used-windmill/
[SEPP Comment: Pay someone to bury fiberglass blades?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
The Hydrogen Dream
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 1, 2019
https://ddears.com/2019/10/01/the-hydrogen-dream/
Germany Pursuing Hydrogen Solution
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 4, 2019
https://ddears.com/2019/10/04/germany-pursuing-hydrogen-solution/
[SEPP Comment: Time for a pipeline to Jupiter, almost 90% hydrogen? Or the sun, which is closer, and they can land at night?]
Biomass not sustainable, subsidies must stop, say European scientists
By Staff, Dutch News.nl, Oct 3, 2019
“In the Netherlands no fewer than 628 biomass installations are being planned with a combined subsidy package of €11.4bn, the AD said. The government has said biomass has to become an important source of sustainable energy in order to achieve climate goals and compensate for the loss of gas production in Groningen.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Chinese EVs ‘worthless’ when it comes to resale
Discrepancy in technology, spotty after-sales service and inherent unreliability all contribute to poor residual value
By Dm Chan, Asia Times, Sep 29, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/09/article/chinese-evs-worthless-when-it-comes-to-resale/
[SEPP Comment: Part of the problem appears to be improved range and longevity of new EVs.]
Carbon Schemes
Algae might be a secret weapon to combatting climate change
By Ben Lamm, Quartz, Oct 1, 2019
https://qz.com/1718988/algae-might-be-a-secret-weapon-to-combatting-climate-change/
“We need to consider alternative options that are planet-effective, not just cost-effective.”
[SEPP Comment: An algae sequestration scheme rather than a carbon dioxide sequestration scheme?]
Oh Mann!
No Transparency Keeps Climate Hysteric’s Findings in the Dark
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Sep 30, 2019
https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/cru-ipcc-mann-ball/2019/09/30/id/934919/
Michael Mann Demands All Universities Declare a Climate Emergency
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 1, 2019
Other News that May Be of Interest
Enemy drone operators may soon face the power of Thor
By Staff Writers, National Harbor MD (SPX), Sep 30, 2019
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Enemy_drone_operators_may_soon_face_the_power_of_Thor_999.html
[SEPP Comment: A defense against a multiple drone attack, as used in Saudi Arabia.]
Global Extreme Poverty
By Max Roser and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Our World in Data, based on World Bank numbers, Revised March 27, 2017
https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
60 °C of global warming: tens of millions would survive just fine
By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, Oct 4, 2019
https://motls.blogspot.com/2019/10/60-c-of-global-warming-tens-of-millions.html#more
[SEPP Comment: Food may be difficult, but the concept is amusing.]
Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us
· Secret report warns of rioting and nuclear war
· Britain will be ‘Siberian’ in less than 20 years
· Threat to the world is greater than terrorism
By Mark Townsend and Paul Harris, The Guardian, Feb 21, 2004
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver?mod=article_inline
UK climate activists’ plan to spray government building with fake blood goes awry after losing control of machine
By Jessica Campisi, The Hill, Oct 3, 2019
ARTICLES
1. California’s Foreign-Oil Problem
Why the Golden State is dependent on the Saudis, unlike most of America.
Editorial, WSJ, Sep 30, 2019
https://www.wsj.com/articles/californias-foreign-oil-problem-11569884224
TWTW Summary: The Editorial states:
“Following the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities last month, many forecasters warned that gas prices would spike. Yet prices have hardly budged—except in California, where they are surging due to policies that have made the state more reliant on foreign oil.
“Gas prices in the Golden State have shot up 30 cents a gallon in the last week amid problems at in-state refineries to a statewide average of $4.03 a gallon and may be headed higher. Prices rose a mere 10 cents nationwide in the week after the attacks on Saudi facilities and have since ticked down a few cents.
“A big reason gas prices didn’t spike after the Saudi attack is growing U.S. shale oil production, which has doubled since 2012 to about 12.5 million barrels a day and added about six million barrels to global supply. This has more than offset the 5.7 million barrels that were temporarily knocked out of Saudi production.
“Yet oil production in California has declined about 18% since 2012 as older wells are exhausted and regulatory costs make it less profitable to drill new ones. California has made up for its declining domestic production by importing more foreign oil by tanker, especially from, you guessed it, Saudi Arabia—which emits more CO2.”
After a discussion of refinery closures caused by new regulations the editorial continues
“Thus when California refineries experience problems, retailers must import foreign gasoline at steep prices, a challenge partly exacerbated by the outages in Saudi Arabia. Add California’s 61-cent-a-gallon gas tax—the highest in the country—and this is why its gas prices are now nearly $1.40 higher than the U.S. average and $1.70 more than in Texas.
“Gov. Gavin Newsom recently remarked that ‘Saudi Arabia is showing us how dependent we are on foreign oil.’ By ‘we,’ he means the royal California.”
*******************
2. Greta Thunberg Has the Climate Alarmists’ Number
If they believed what they claim to believe, they’d do a lot more about it. She’s right—how dare they?
By Barton Swain, WSJ, Oct 4, 2019
The WSJ editorial page writer states:
“How to think about Greta Thunberg ? She is the 16-year-old Swedish environmental activist known for her articulate fulminations on climate change. At last month’s United Nations General Assembly, she scolded delegates. ‘I shouldn’t be up here,’ she said, her expression contorted with rage. ‘I should be back in school on the other side of the ocean. Yet you all come to us young people for hope. How dare you? You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. And yet I’m one of the lucky ones. People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!’
“It’s true that political causes discredit themselves by allowing children to make arguments they don’t understand. But ridiculing a child, however cynical her promoters, is dishonorable. I vividly recall the vicious mockery from supposedly responsible adults when Caitlin Upton mangled an answer about geography in the 2007 Miss Teen USA pageant. The spectacle of grown men ridiculing a well-meaning 18-year-old girl wasn’t an appealing one.
“Commentators who sympathize with Ms. Thunberg’s views are perceptibly conflicted about whether they should champion her activism or wish she’d go away. You sense the uncertainty in center-left punditry about her. She gets praise for her bold preaching on climate change, which the right can’t criticize without appearing boorish—great. But a political movement spoken for by a teenager can’t be taken altogether seriously.
“Yet Ms. Thunberg has a lesser-noted claim on our attention—not her expertise or her degree of alarm, but her insight into the global climate-change movement itself. She is aware—and has the bad manners to say so—that the vast majority of wealthy transnationals who intone rote demands that governments ‘take action’ on climate change don’t actually believe what they’re saying.
“At the U.N., Ms. Thunberg wasn’t speaking to rubes and oilmen and climate ‘deniers.’ She was speaking to the swarms of diplomatic elite who had earlier disembarked from jumbo jets and descended on Midtown Manhattan’s bars, restaurants and five-star hotels and clogged its streets with phalanxes of giant sport-utility vehicles. Ms. Thunberg appears to suspect—rightly—that these people don’t think we’re headed for doomsday. They enjoy the moral uplift afforded by their fashionable views; otherwise they’re along for the ride.
“Young children don’t see hypocrisy for what it is. They have faith in adults. When Ms. Thunberg was younger and she heard European politicians and leaders of nongovernmental organizations insisting that the world would experience cataclysmic environmental degradation unless governments imposed dramatic changes, she believed them. She couldn’t have understood that when the leaders she admired spoke of taking ‘dramatic’ and ‘immediate’ action to combat climate change, all they had in mind was the incremental transfer of political power to unaccountable regulatory agencies and transnational organizations in faraway capitals.”
After a brief discussion of Ms. Thunberg’s homelife the writer continues:
“They could argue with impeccable logic that there’s no point in making major changes to your lifestyle, since real progress requires that developed and developing nations all agree to huge decreases in carbon emissions. That, as everybody at the U.N. must know even if they pretend not to, will never happen: No national government can be expected to cripple its economy on the dubious promise that other nations will cripple theirs. So our climate leaders are happily reduced to making piecemeal demands for more regulatory powers—most of which will have no appreciable effect on global climate. [Boldface added]
“Ms. Thunberg grasps that if today’s climate leaders believed what they claim to believe, they would use their power to impose drastic reductions to greenhouse emissions, whatever other nations might do. They would also, if their convictions were genuine, engage in terrible and revolutionary deeds for the salvation of humanity: intimidation, brutality, sabotage. Instead they are content to trumpet the right opinions and otherwise persist in their ordinary habits of consumption as though none of it really mattered. Greta Thunberg has a point. How dare they?”
“No national government can be expected to cripple its economy on the dubious promise that other nations will cripple theirs.”
– Except, of course for the Australian government. All the little green apparatchiks do expect Australia to destroy its economy, and say so frequently.
Thank you for the Feynman quotes in the main article. What a brilliant mind in so extraordinary a communicator!
In a few days, the tropopause height in the Midwest will drop to just 6 km. This will cause a strong drop in temperature at night and a large temperature difference on the front.
Snow is also forecast to develop along with a dramatic temperature plunge over parts of Colorado, including the Denver area.
“Within 48 hours, Denver may go from 80 degrees and sunshine on Tuesday to 20 degrees and snow Wednesday night,” Sosnowski said.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snowstorm-rapid-freeze-up-to-create-dangerous-travel-over-rockies-and-high-plains-this-week/596373
I am interested in the answer to a simple question.
In 2009, when there was general agreement about a pause or hiatus, the Australian Chief Scientist answered 4 sceptical scientists’ query about no warming for a decade by saying-
(a) Periods of a decade or longer could be affected by natural forcing thus masking the underlying warming trend,
(b) As more than 85% of the Warming in the earth’s system occurred in the oceans, ( or 90%) that is where we should look to gauge the increase in global temperature.
Which brings us to the Argo Buoys in place since 2003/04.
What is the decadal rate of warming in the oceans shown by the Argo Buoys?
I recall Willis Eschenbach has nominated 4 one hundredths of a degree Celsius per decade(WUWT passim).
The Argo web site displays warming in terms of megajoules which is somewhat opaque.
Any contributions?
In fact, the ARGO buoys measured cooling, not warming.
This was then “adjusted” to warming by simply coming up with an excuse to erase what was measured and pencil in some numbers which conformed with the narrative of CAGW.
See here:
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/OceanCooling
For more on this, see any number of articles here on WUWT, including this very good one from Willis Eschenbach.
The comment thread is also excellent and informative reading:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/01/11/a-small-margin-of-error/
They use megajoules instead of degrees because a few hundredths of a degree (even if you believe it) sounds decidedly unscary.
Ocean temperatures were how the pause was adjusted out of existence, by the process dubbed “Karlization”, a complete sham in which fake data was simply conjured into existence and grafted onto the surface data to get the desired result of eliminating the inconvenient pause.
The “Pause Buster” :
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/27/dissent-in-the-climate-ranks-over-karls-pause-buster-temperature-data-tweaking/
Nicholas,
Thanks. Excellent summary.
Also regarding the ARGO buoys:
Although they began to be deployed early in the first decade of this century, the number of them did not reach what was considered to be the operational coverage until some time around 2008-2009, IIRC.
And each one represents 50,000 square miles of ocean. Not much granularity.
In other news today, this from the UN: They are out of money!
I think it is well past time for the US to refuse to give one more cent to this organization.
My opinion is that we should kick them out of the US.
Let’s see how they do someplace else.
Hosting this parade of haters on our soil is way beyond a bad joke.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/10/08/u-n-pleads-for-money-as-finances-poised-to-run-dry-by-months-end/
Nicholas,
Australia gave about A$300 million to the UN Green Fund under former PM Malcolm Turnbull in late 2016 shortly after signing the Paris Accord to the dismay of many Conservatives (Liberal Party members).
Publicity about that broke earlier this year and the new PM Scott Morrison announced no more money whatsoever for the Fund.
I seem to recall Obama also gave money, and this was cancelled by Trump, although my memory of this is fuzzy and I do not recall the amounts involved.
“Substantial blowing and drifting of snow is in store at the height of the storm Friday and in its immediate wake during part of this weekend.
The storm is forecast to bring a few inches of snow to northwestern Nebraska and western Minnesota.
In the wake of the storm, record low temperatures can occur over portions of the North Central states late this week and this weekend.”
I am seeing reports of as much as two feet of snow from this event, which is expected to be of a relatively long duration, and will have a widespread area with substantial accumulation.
Many entire states in the upper midwestern US.
This was as of last night.
Here is the latest from Weather.com:
https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2019-10-06-first-snow-of-season-rockies-plains-early-to-mid-october-forecast
Extremely cold air moves to Kansans and Nebraska.
