The Week That Was: 2019-08-24 (August 24, 2019)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “I learned very early the difference between knowing the name of something and knowing something.” ― Richard P. Feynman
Number of the Week: 116 Stations
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
August Fad II – Amazon Burning: Some organizations considered scientific are feeding the popular press with highly dubious claims. Last week, TWTW discussed NOAA’s claim that July 2019 “was the hottest month measured on Earth since records began in 1880.” The record is highly questionable. Also, other commentators made very appropriate remarks and Tony Heller demonstrated how the process of homogenization distorts the surface record. Also, the comprehensive atmospheric record demonstrates that NOAA’s claims are unfounded. NOAA is losing scientific credibility by making such claims.
This week, the press fad is the burning of the Amazon. For example, the newspaper The Hill ran articles stating:
“As wildfires continue to engulf the Amazon rainforest at a record pace…”
“Ahead of the Group of Seven summit in France, French President Emmanuel Macron called the situation in Brazil an ‘international crisis’ and vowed to make it a priority point of discussion.”
NASA’s Earth Observatory has an animation of fires on earth from March 2000 to June 2019. It is a cartoon depicting where fires are occurring. As NASA states:
“The fire maps show the locations of actively burning fires around the world on a monthly basis, based on observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite.”
Jesse Ferrell of AccuWeather stated the situation clearly:
“The Earth is burning, but it always has been.
“Thousands of fires are continually burning across the Earth every day of every year, and they always have. They have an animation of the last 20 years of this data. You won’t see much of a change, except that fires are worse in some areas and better in others from year to year.”
“You can’t actually “see” the fires or the damage they do, looking at the globe from space.
“So why does it look like the whole Earth is on fire in the maps above? That’s a great question, and it leads to exaggeration of the true size of what’s burning. As I understand it, this data is composed of “warm pixels.” This means the satellite has detected what it thinks could be a wildfire based on its temperature, and I assume, other algorithms. NASA warns on their website:
“’Don’t be fooled by sizes of some of the bright splotches on these maps. The colors represent a count of the number of fires observed within a 1,000-square-kilometer area.’
“This means you’re not looking at actual fires, you’re looking at pixels which represent the number of satellite-detected fires within 1,000 square-kilometers of a location, and that data can be represented with smaller pixels, but if you zoom out to show the whole Earth, as above, you wouldn’t be able to see them. It’s analogous to looking at a map of NWS Storm Spotters, where each car is the size of Rhode Island. When you zoom way out, it will look like cities are clogged with cars, but the reality is that a car is a lot smaller than Rhode Island, and when you get down to that level, they are very far apart.”
Apparently, many journalists have difficulty understanding the difference between animation and reality. See links under Fear of Fire and Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
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The Greenhouse Effect – NOAA Models: The influential 1979 Charney Report published by the National Academy of Sciences stated that a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) would result in a net increase in temperatures of 3 ºC plus or minus 1.5 ºC (about 6 ºF plus or minus 3 ºF) This figure has been retained for 40 years through five major assessment reports and many minor reports by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and four National Assessments by what is now called US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). Yet there has been no rigorous testing of these findings by these government groups against independent data.
The Charney Report did not test its conclusions against independent data, instead it relied on models. It states:
The independent studies of the CO2 /climate problem that we have examined range from calculations with simple radiative-convective models to zonally and vertically averaged heat-balance models with horizontally diffusive heat exchange and snow-ice albedo feedbacks to full-fledged three-dimensional general circulation models (GCM’s) involving most of the relevant physical processes. Our confidence in our conclusion that a doubling of CO2 will eventually result in significant temperature increases and other climate changes is based on the fact that the results of the radiative-convective and heat-balance model studies can be understood in purely physical terms and are verified by the more complex GCM’s. The last give more information on geographical variations in heating, precipitation, and snow and ice cover, but they agree reasonably well with the simpler models on the magnitudes of the overall heating effects. [Boldface Added.]
It is understandable why the models were not tested, because the data were not available. Although satellites began collecting comprehensive atmospheric data that could be used to calculate temperature trends in December 1978, the procedures to make such calculations were not published until 1990, and some slight adjustments were required to adjust for orbital decay and drift.
The Charney Report referenced major models used primarily to reach its conclusions: 1) the model developed by the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton; and 2) the NASA-GISS model. The NOAA GFDL model is briefly discussed today. Next week, TWTW will discuss another model supported by the National Academy of Sciences.
Based on a quick review of the NOAA-GFDL model and examination of some details, it appears that the primary effort over the past 40 years has been to increase the resolution of the models but not to test the models against the expanding data bases from real world observations. According to NOAA-GFDL grid resolution has been largely determined by computer power. Increased computing power allows simulation of smaller scale physical processes, details, and animations from the models without the need for observations from satellites, etc.
The models are divided into four components: atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice. For the ocean grid, in the 1980s, at the equator the east-west grid had 96 divisions and the north-south gird had 40 divisions, yielding a total of 3840 grid boxes. In the 2009 version, at the equator the east-west grid had 1440 divisions and the north-south gird had 1070 divisions, yielding a total of 1,540,800 grid boxes.
The new atmospheric model CM 2.5 has grid box cells that are approximately 50 km on each side, with 32 vertical levels. The surface grid size is approximately the surface grid size of the ocean component model. Thus, for the ocean and atmospheric components there are 49,305,600 grid boxes. The NOAA-GFDL website discusses the difficulty of making all the calculations needed:
“The model uses increasing levels of parallelism to run efficiently on modern supercomputers. For example, the model was able to simulate 12 model years per day when using approximately 6000 processors on the NOAA Research Supercomputer (GAEA) located at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory.”
But it is not the computing power used that is the issue. A more important issue is the source of the data. The only possible source is from satellite measurements, yet as John Christy and his colleagues have shown, the US global climate models greatly overestimate the warming of the atmosphere.
One of the statements under Climate Modeling addresses the issue of their use:
“Why Do We Believe Them? [The models]
“Although there is some level of disagreement among climate models, these models are based on well-founded physical principles either directly for simulated processes or indirectly for parameterized processes. The results of one experiment are extensively checked by a large community of modelers and researchers around the world (for example, as part of the IPCC), which reduces uncertainty. Generally, models produce simulations of current and past large-scale climates that agree with observations. Climate models have also produced an accurate hindcast of 20th century climate change, including increased warming partly due to CO2 emissions. This gives us confidence in using these models to project future climate change.” [Boldface added.]
This leads to the key issues: the testing of the models against independent data and validation of the models. Apparently, as with the Charney Report, the models are tested only against other models, and validation has not been accomplished. The greenhouse effect occurs in the atmosphere. Until the models have been shown to predict atmospheric temperature trends, the science is far from settled.
Also, it is interesting to note that in the depiction of the “Basic structure of GFDL’s Earth System Model” the dominant greenhouse gas, water vapor, is not mentioned. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and Model Issues.
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Revaluating the Questionable Consensus: Michael Oppenheimer and Naomi Oreskes are lead authors of a new book titled “Discerning Experts: The Practices of Scientific Assessment For Environmental Policy.” The book blurb states:
“Discerning Experts assesses the assessments that many governments rely on to help guide environmental policy and action. Through their close look at environmental assessments involving acid rain, ozone depletion, and sea level rise, the authors explore how experts deliberate and decide on the scientific facts about problems like climate change. They also seek to understand how the scientists involved make the judgments they do, how the organization and management of assessment activities affects those judgments, and how expertise is identified and constructed.
“Discerning Experts uncovers factors that can generate systematic bias and error and recommends how the process can be improved. As the first study of the internal workings of large environmental assessments, this book reveals their strengths and weaknesses, and explains what assessments can—and cannot—be expected to contribute to public policy and the common good.” [Boldface added]
Michael Oppenheimer is closely associated with the NOAA-GFDL model discussed above. But it is doubtful one can discover in the book why US global climate models greatly overestimates the temperature trends of the atmosphere. Oreskes made severe claims against four distinguished scientists, including Fred Singer and Fredrick Seitz of SEPP, without providing evidence substantiating the claims. Probably, the book is short on hard evidence. Given these shortcomings, it is doubtful the Oppenheimer and Oreskes are experts on the greenhouse effect.
Judith Curry politely summed the issue:
“In seeking to defend ‘it’s worse than we thought’ about climate change, Oppenheimer, Oreskes et al. have opened up a welcome can of worms. Consensus seeking and consensus enforcement have trivialized and politicized climate science for decades.
“It has been clear for some time that the conclusions of the IPCC Assessment Reports are too tame for the activist/alarmists. In fact, quoting the IPCC is a favored strategy of the so-called ‘contrarians’ (including myself). It remains to be seen if Oreskes can drop the 97% consensus rhetoric (I doubt it).” To Curry’s comments one can add: If “the science is settled” was true years ago, why are things always “worse than we thought”? See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy
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Oh’ Mann: Michael Mann lost his litigation against Tim Ball, who recognized the importance of the detailed weather records of the Hudson Bay Company, covering much of north-central North America. Mr. Mann will be required to pay court costs, but it is unclear what that entails. Mr. Mann appears to be well financed in order to undertake the personal lawsuits he has. Mr. Ball is too much a gentleman to speak harshly. Mark Steyn, another of Mr. Mann’s targets, is not so inclined. It will be interesting to see what develops. See links under Litigation Issues.
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New Web Site: Craig Idso has posted for the Institute for the Human Environment. Idso is an authority on the benefits to the environment from carbon dioxide. His weekly reviews of papers are a valuable source for dispelling the popular mischaracterization of increasing CO2. The first post for the Institute presents a clear discussion why increasing CO2 is not the danger to human health the EPA and others claim. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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One New Rule: Australian Jo Nova describes a new rule for electrical grid operators in establishing priority of bids. From many examples, due to their low variable cost (cost of operation) wind and solar can be low cost providers of electricity, when they work. But they are very unreliable and cannot be depended upon. Due to their low variable costs, they can price out reliable providers, when they work.
According to Nova: Terry McCrann, writing in The Australian, Business Review, proposes if a generator wishes to sell power into the grid, it will have to guarantee a minimum level of supply and guarantee that minimum level of supply 24/7. “And critically, that minimum level can be no lower than 80 per cent of the maximum amount of energy you will be permitted to sell into the grid.” This is an idea to ponder. See link under Energy Issues – Non-US.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
The voting is closed and the winner who most closely meets the qualification is being selected. No missing shards here, one hopes.
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Number of the Week: 116 Stations: Assisted by Kirye of Japan, Pierre Gosselin writes:
“It is a fact that land surface temperature records going back before 1900 globally are very few and sparse. Worldwide there are only 116 stations Version 3, unadjusted datasets that go all the way back to January 1880 – most of them are in USA and Europe (northern hemisphere).”
TWTW has not done such an analysis but is not surprised. Further, Kirye and Gosselin state that there are only 12 such stations in the Southern Hemisphere, seven in Australia, one below the equator in Africa, Cape Town, and one below the equator in South America, Bahia Blanca, Argentina. These records are from a NOAA database.
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
New Study Shows Southeast Asia Climatic Variability Over Past Two Millennia, Likely Solar Driven – Deflate CO2 As Main Driver
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 17, 2019
Censorship
Blacklist by Nature follows defamation by BioScience: journals reject ethics of science
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Aug 17, 2019
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Critique of “Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians”
By Nir Shaviv, ScienceBits, Aug 18, 2019
Link to paper: Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians
By Alexander Michael Petersen, Emmanuel M. Vincent, & Anthony LeRoy Westerling, Nature, Communications,
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09959-4.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/publications/SeaLevelRiseCCRII.pdf
Re-evaluating the manufacture of the climate consensus
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Aug 21, 2019
https://judithcurry.com/2019/08/21/re-evaluating-the-manufacture-of-the-climate-consensus/
Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Aug 22, 2019
https://judithcurry.com/2019/08/22/climate-change-whats-the-worst-case/#more-25104
Why CO2 is Not the Control Knob of Global Temperature and Observational Proof it is Not Causing Dangerous Warming
By Staff, Institute for the Human Environment, Accessed Aug 23, 2019
http://www.human-environment.org/climate/co2primer/co2primer.php
Looking behind the scenes of the well-orchestrated climate hysteria
By Sanjeev Sabhlok, The Times of India, Aug 22, 2019
“Our party is keenly aware of the intense hatred these “white” elites have towards India’s poor. We won’t let them get the upper hand. Scientific debate won’t work with them. So we call upon the Modi government shut down the IPCC.”
Listen to the Trees!
By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Aug 20, 2019
http://landscapesandcycles.net/listen-to-the-trees.html
“There are too many fear mongering politicians pushing an “existential climate crisis”. I find the climate history told by the trees far more trustworthy, and the trees are whispering there is no crisis.”
Petitioning Against Climate Alarmism Goes Global
By Larry Bell, Newmax, Aug 19, 2019
https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/eu-ipcc-carbon/2019/08/19/id/929031/
The Greatest Scientific Fraud Of All Time — Part XXVI
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Aug 20, 2019
Defending the Orthodoxy
Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment
Report of an Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate
Woods Hole, Massachusetts, July 23-27, 1979
To the Climate Research Board, Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Research Council
https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12181/carbon-dioxide-and-climate-a-scientific-assessment
Bernie Sanders indicates climate plan will require nationalization of US energy production
By Sam Dorman, Fox News, Aug 23, 2019
Dessler’s “Introduction to Modern Climate Change:” Suggestions for More Interdisciplinary Scholarship, Less Advocacy
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Aug 21, 2019
https://www.masterresource.org/debate-issues/dessler-into-to-modern-climate-change-i/
New study offers roadmap for detecting changes in the ocean due to climate change
Some impacts — like sea temperature rise — are already in progress; others expected to occur within next century
Press release, Princeton University, Via Eurek Alert, Aug 19, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-08/pu-nso081919.php
Link to paper: “Emergence of anthropogenic signals in the ocean carbon cycle,” was published in Nature Climate Change
By Sarah Schlunegger, et al., Nature, Climate Change, Aug 19, 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0553-2
[SEPP Comment: Do they understand the difference between natural climate change and human-caused climate change?]
Unique climate change has no natural cause
By Tim Radford, Climate News Network, Via Physics World, Aug 23, 2019
https://physicsworld.com/a/unique-climate-change-has-no-natural-cause/
“Other historic changes – the so-called Medieval Warm Period and then the ‘Little Ice Age’ that marked the 17th to the 19th centuries – were not global. The only period in which the world’s climate has changed, everywhere and at the same time, is right now.”
[SEPP Comment: There were no Ice Ages when North America down to Manhattan was covered by thousands of feet of ice?]
Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment
Report of an Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate
Woods Hole, Massachusetts
July 23-27, 1979
to the Climate Research Board, Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Research Council
https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12181/carbon-dioxide-and-climate-a-scientific-assessment
Questioning the Orthodoxy
And death will be a relief
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 21, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/08/21/and-death-will-be-a-relief/
Can’t imagine why
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 21, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/08/21/cant-imagine-why/
“Ambition. That’s what we need. More ambition. And more certitude. And more smugness. And more attitude.”
Never shake thy Gore-y locks
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 21, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/08/21/never-shake-thy-gore-y-locks/
“What James Taranto of the Wall Street Journal years ago dubbed ‘poor political hygiene’ also applies in science and, indeed, in the politicized science that now constitutes climate orthodoxy.”
The Real News about Climate: CO2 Is No Threat
Guest Post by Just Beau, Carlin Economics and Science, Aug 17, 2019
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/5108
After Paris!
Adaptation: Think about It (a ‘free-market jihadist’?)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Aug 20, 2019
https://www.masterresource.org/climate-policy/adaptation-think-about-it-am-i-a-free-market-jihadist/
China Criticizes Australia for Not Doing Enough about Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 21, 2019
Developing nations surging energy use shatters UN & California’s climate alarmism crusade
Guest essay by Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Aug 22, 2019
Change in US Administrations
BLM issues final plan for reduced Utah monument
By John Bowden and Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Aug 23, 2019
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/458542-blm-issues-final-plan-for-reduced-utah-monument
[SEPP Comment: When President Clinton announced the formation of the Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument, the press conference was held at the Grand Canyon, not at the new Monument where reporters would have traveled over miles of barren wastes without finding anything significant.]
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Save 7 million lives per year by increasing access to hydrocarbon fuels
By Chris Wright, Washington Examiner, Aug 16, 2019
Seeking a Common Ground
The Bigotry of Environmental Pessimism
By Michael Shellenberger, Quillette, Aug 15, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
https://quillette.com/2019/08/15/the-bigotry-of-environmental-pessimism/
Why you can’t trust your eyes
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Aug 23, 2019
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/08/why-you-cant-trust-your-eyes.html
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Enhanced Transport of Riverine Carbonate Alkalinity Over the Past Forty Years
Drake, T.W., Tank, S.E., Zhulidov, A.V., Holmes, R.M., Gurtovaya, T. and Spencer, R.G.M. 2018. Increasing alkalinity export from large Russian Arctic rivers. Environmental Science & Technology 52: 8302-8308. Aug 23, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/aug/a8.php
“Consequently, more research should be conducted in this area so as to determine the impact of this enhanced riverine carbonate alkalinity on future projections of ocean acidification in the Arctic and elsewhere. It may be that the buffering capacity of the world’s oceans at shorter timescales is greater than anticipated. And that has important implications for a potential slow-down and partial mitigation of predicted ocean acidification impacts.”
A Transcriptome-based Analysis of the Interactive Effects of Elevated CO2 and Herbivory Attack on Grapevine
Reineke, A. and Selim, M. 2019. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations alter grapevine (Vitis vinifera) systemic transcriptional response to European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) herbivory. Scientific Reports 9: 2995, DOI:10.1038/s41598-019-39979-5. Aug 22, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/aug/a7.php
“In light of these encouraging findings, it should come as no surprise that Reineke and Selim conclude by saying their study ‘indicates that future elevated CO2 concentrations will affect interactions between grapevine plants and one of its key insect pests, with consequences for future relevance of L. botrana in worldwide viticulture.’ And, gratefully, that relevance will likely be greatly diminished, leading to more robust growth and grape harvests in the years and decades to come as the air’s CO2 concentration continues to rise.”
A 2000-Year History of Temperature on the Southern Tibetan Plateau
Guo, C., Ma, Y., Meng, H., Hu, C., Li, D., Liu, J., Luo, C. and Wang, K. 2018. Changes in vegetation and environment in Yamzhog Yumco Lake on the southern Tibetan Plateau over past 2000 years. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 501: 30-44. Aug 21, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/aug/a6.php
“But if not CO2, what is or could be the cause of the 20th century warming? Based on additional analyses performed by Guo et al., it was their conclusion that changes in solar irradiance ‘played the most important role in influencing the climatic variabilities over the STP on a multi-centennial timescale.’”
Elevated CO2 Improves the Growth of Two Mangrove Tree Species
Jacotot, A., Marchand, C. and Allenbach, M. 2019. Increase in growth and alteration of C:N ratios of Avicennia marina and Rhizophora stylosa subject to elevated CO2 concentrations and longer tidal flooding duration. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 7: 98, doi: 10.3389/fevo.2019.00098. Aug 19, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/aug/a5.php
Measurement Issues — Surface
Earth Surface Temperature Data Too Scant, No Certainty. Southern Hemisphere Stations Show Cooling Since 1880!
By Kirye and Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 23, 2019
How Much Hotter Are The Oceans? The Answer Begins With A Bucket
By Rebecca Hersher, NPR, Aug 19, 2019 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper; Correcting datasets leads to more homogeneous early-twentieth-century sea surface warming
By Duo Chan, Elizabeth C. Kent, David l. Berry & Peter Huyber, Nature, July 18, 2019
Northern Europe July Temperature Sees NO WARMING Over Past Decades. Global July Not A Record High!
By Kirye and Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 20, 2019
New York Times Explains Why The Global Temperature Record Is Useless
By Tony Heller, The Deplorable Climate Science Blog, Aug 21, 2019
Model Issues
Earth System Models
By Staff, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Accessed Aug 19, 2019
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/earth-system-model/
Changing Weather
Baked Alaska – the real causes and how 2012 was forgotten
By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, ICECAP, Aug 19, 2019
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool/baked_alaska_the_real_causes_and_how_2012_was_forgotten/
[SEPP Comment: To get the story broadcast: forget the cold, focus on the warm!
Africa’s Shortterm Freshwater Trends Largely Driven By Natural Variability
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 21, 2019
Link to paper: Short-term trends in Africa’s freshwater resources: Rates and drivers
By MohamedAhmed and David N.Wiese, Science of the Total Environment, Dec 10, 2019(?)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719337908?dgcid=raven_sd_search_email
Snow in northern BC, Rain in the Northwest
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Aug 19, 2019
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/08/snow-in-northern-bc-rain-in-northwest.html
Is Western Washington Really in Severe Drought?
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Aug 23, 2019
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/08/is-western-washington-really-in-severe.html
This is the kind of year that ‘abnormally dry’ might be appropriate and the ‘D word’ might not be the best choice. Extreme drought seems over the top.
Changing Seas
Heron Island Corals: Still Constrained by Sea Level Fall
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Aug 20, 2019
https://jennifermarohasy.com/2019/08/heron-island-corals-still-constrained-by-sea-level-fall/
[SEPP Comment: Significant coral bleaching may come from sea levels temporarily falling during major weather events such as El Niños?]
New GBR Study: 400% Coral Recovery Since 2014 – With 2017 Growth Rates Comparable To The 1970s
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Aug 19, 2019
Sum-Of-Contributor Evidence Shows Global Sea Levels Have Recently Been Rising <1 Millimeter Per Year
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Aug 22, 2019
Climate change ‘could expose more ancient monuments and ruins’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 21, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Even if sea levels are rising?]
California King Salmon Rebound After Long Drought
By Staff, AP, Aug 22, 2019 [H/t Ken Schichte]
https://www.courthousenews.com/california-king-salmon-rebound-after-long-drought/
[SEPP Comment: There is strong evidence that Pacific salmon runs are cyclical, may be related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Don’t buy Arctic beachfront property just yet
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Aug 21, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2019/08/21/dont-buy-arctic-beachfront-property-just-yet/
[SEPP Comment: Unlike today, 1800s polar expeditions did not have modern equipment to know where openings in the ice were, if any.]
Changing Earth
Yellowstone ‘supervolcano’ eruption would be catastrophic, NYT op-ed says
By Brie Stimson, Fox News, Aug 22, 2019 [H/t William Dwyer]
Superdeep diamonds confirm ancient reservoir deep under Earth’s surface
By Staff Writers, Barcelona, Spain (SPX). Aug 17, 2019
Primordial and recycled helium isotope signatures in the mantle transition zone
By S. Timmerman, et. al., Science, Agu 16, 2019
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/365/6454/692
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Corn Belt Update Mid-August 2019
Guest Post by David Archibald, WUWT, Aug 21, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/21/corn-belt-update-mid-august-2019/
Monsoon rebound prepares ground for bumper harvest
Conditions are ripe for a good harvest of the kharif crop & higher farm incomes, which should boost demand.
By Rituraj Tiwari, The Economic Times, India, Aug 17, 2019
Fear of Fire:
Fire
By Staff, NASA Earth Observatory, Accessed Aug 20, 2019
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/global-maps/MOD14A1_M_FIRE
5 things the media won’t tell you about the Amazon fires
By Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather, Aug 23, 2019
NASA Say The Amazon Is Burning At Below Average Rates – Yet Many News Stories Say Record Rates – Which Is It?
By Robert Walker, Science 2.0, Aug 21, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Amazon Fires Update
News Brief by Kip Hansen, WUWT, Aug 23, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/23/amazon-fires-update/
Amazon Fire History Since 2003
By Les Johnson, WUWT, Aug 23, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/23/amazon-fire-history-since-2003/
Five things to know about the Amazon rainforest fires
By Justin Wise, The Hill, Aug 23, 2019
“That’s because the rainforest — a source of 20 percent of the earth’s oxygen — has served a vital role in carbon storage, absorbing a substantial amount of the 2.4 billion metric tons captured each year by forests worldwide. An increase in fires and deforestation in that region could markedly accelerate warming climates beyond South America.”
Brazil’s Bolsonaro tells world not to meddle as Amazon rainforest burns
By Aris Folley, The Hill, Aug 23, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Sea Level scare industry urges plans to panic and evacuate over 1mm rise
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 23, 2019
Climate change drives writer from skeptic to alarmist
Prognosis for Next Century Is Brutally Bleak
Review of The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming
By David Wallace-Wells, Reviewed by Dana Wilde, Island Institute, Maine, Aug 21, 2019 [H/t William Readdy]
“By the year 2100, the Earth’s sea level is almost guaranteed to rise by at least 4 feet, maybe up to 8 feet.”
Climate Change Is Already Amplifying the Affordable Housing Crisis
By Jared Brey, Next City, Aug 20, 2019
https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/climate-change-is-already-amplifying-the-affordable-housing-crisis
“Other areas of Florida were already facing challenging housing shortages. And earlier this year, as Next City reported, the state legislature once again pulled money from an affordable housing trust fund to pay for other programs, including disaster relief.”
[SEPP Comment: People moving from the north to Florida are creating climate change?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
See how climate science becomes alarmist propaganda
By Larry Kummer, Fabius Maximus website, Aug 18, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
https://fabiusmaximus.com/2019/08/18/misuse-of-climate-science/
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
A highly carbon-positive “prince” from a Swedish girl’s yacht
By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, Aug 20, 2019
https://motls.blogspot.com/2019/08/a-highly-carbon-positive-prince-from.html
Fear promoted by young activists is based on false walrus & polar bear narratives
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Aug 21, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Czechia: where TV debates on Greta are still possible
By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, Aug 23, 2019
https://motls.blogspot.com/2019/08/czechia-where-tv-debates-on-greta-are.html
Greta Thunberg and the Plot to Forge a Climate Warrior
By Dominic Green, The Times, Via GWPF, Aug 23, 2019
http://www.thegwpf.com/greta-thunberg-and-the-plot-to-forge-a-climate-warrior/
How green is St Greta’s Ark? Er, not very
By Michael St George, The Conservative Woman, Aug 20, 2019
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/how-green-is-st-gretas-ark-er-not-very/
Questioning European Green
Former National Grid Director Says Britain Should Impose Limits on New Wind and Solar Farms to Avoid Blackouts
By Staff, Sunday Telegraph, UK, Via GWPF, Aug 19, 2019
National Grid’s Preliminary Report On Blackout
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 20, 2019
UK blackout proved need for diverse energy mix, says business secretary
By Staff, WNN, Aug 14, 2019
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/UK-blackout-proved-need-for-diverse-energy-mix,-sa
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Big Wind’s Big Headwinds
By Robert Bryce, Real Clear Energy, Aug 16, 2019
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2019/08/16/big_winds_big_headwinds_110467.html
Plastic recycling piles up in Hobart as councils urged to drop service fees
By Staff, ABC News, AU, Aug 17, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
The Political Games Continue
Climate facts subject to rules on partisan advertising in Canada
By Brian Owens, Science Mag, Aug 20, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/08/climate-facts-subject-rules-partisan-advertising-canada
[SEPP Comment: Photo of a sign speaks loudly: “We Can’t Save the World By Playing By the Rules.”]
GOLDSTEIN: For climate alarmists ‘free speech’ exists only for them
By Lorrie Goldstein, Toronto Sun, Aug 19, 2019
Democratic National Committee Votes Down Climate Debate. Activists Vow To Fight On.
The vote came a day after the 2020 climate candidate Jay Inslee, who had been pushing for the debate, dropped out of the race.
By Alexander C. Kaufman and Chris D’Angelo, Huff Post, Aug 22, 2019
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/dnc-rejects-climate-debate_n_5d5cb8f0e4b05f62fbd7067d
Litigation Issues
BREAKING – Dr. Tim Ball wins @MichaelEMann lawsuit – Mann has to pay
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 22, 2019
Keystone XL Pipeline gets nod from Nebraska Supreme Court
By Miranda Green and Rebecca Klar, The Hill, Aug 23, 2019
Walmart suing Tesla
By Charles the moderator, WUWT, Aug 21, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/21/walmart-suing-tesla/
Link to the suit: 654765 2019 Walmart Inc v Tesla Energy Operations Inc Summons Complaint 1
Walmart is suing Tesla after its solar panels caught on fire at seven stores
Supreme Court of the State of New York
County of New York: Commercial Division
Walmart asks Telsa to remove solar panels from 240 stores and pay damages after 7 fires
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 21, 2019
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Let’s be Clear About Subsidies
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Aug 19, 2019
https://ddears.com/2019/08/19/lets-be-clear-about-subsidies/
[SEPP Comment: The Tax Reduction Act of 1975 repealed the percentage depletion allowance for major integrated oil companies.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA ordered to set stronger smog standards
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Aug 23, 2019
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/458608-epa-ordered-to-set-stronger-smog-standards
“The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit found that while the EPA’s current air quality standards for ozone are too weak to protect the environment, the standards do meet federal requirements when it comes to protecting human health.”
“Environmentalists and Democrats alike said the suit showed the importance of scientific evidence at trial.”
[SEPP Comment: What type of evidence? Speculation from unvalidated models?]
Trump admin erases key environmental enforcement tool
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Aug 21, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Many development projects have been loaded with expensive Supplemental Environmental Projects (SEPs), greatly benefiting the environmental industry.]
Just change one rule — so the world can see what Wind and Solar really cost
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 20, 2019
Telling the Story of a Blackout
By John Constable, GWPF Energy Editor, Aug 21, 2019
http://www.thegwpf.com/telling-the-story-of-a-blackout/
Blackout Fears Over National Grid Cables from Europe
By Staff, The Times, Via GWPF, Aug 19, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/blackout-fears-over-national-grid-cables-from-europe/
Renewable Energy Is a Blackout Risk, Warns Britain’s National Grid
By Staff, Mail on Sunday, Via GWPF, Aug 18, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/renewable-energy-is-a-blackout-risk-warns-britains-national-grid/
Canada pipeline construction to start within 30 days: company
By Staff Writers Ottawa (AFP), Aug 21, 2019
Energy Issues – Australia
Australian grid wars: MP says Queensland should cut off other states to make electricity cheaper
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 20, 2019
Bluescope spends a billion in US because “cheap energy”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 21, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/08/bluescope-spends-a-billion-in-us-because-cheap-energy/
“In the last few days Bluescope Steel (formerly BHP) has confirmed it will spend US$700m (AU$1b) to expand it’s North Star steel mill in Ohio.”
Energy Issues — US
Vistra May Close 2 GW of Illinois Coal Power By Year’s End
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Aug 22, 2019
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
OPEC’s market share sinks – and no sign of wavering on supply cuts
By Alex Lawler, Reuters, Aug 22, 2019
US Shale Natural Gas: Lowering Global Prices and CO2 Emissions
By Jude Clemente, Real Clear Energy, August 22, 2019
Fracking has less impact on groundwater than traditional oil and gas production
Press Release, By University of Arizona, Phys.org, Aug 16, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-fracking-impact-groundwater-traditional-oil.html
Return of King Coal?
China provides $1 billion in ‘green’ finance to coal projects in first half of the year
By David Stanway, Reuters, Aug 19, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Do they paint the coal green before burning it?]
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Offshore Oil and Gas Production Leaks Virtually No Methane
By David Middleton, WUWT, Aug 20, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/20/offshore-oil-and-gas-production-leaks-virtually-no-methane/
Nuclear Energy and Fears
US launches advanced nuclear technologies demonstration centre
By Staff, WNN, Aug 19, 2019
https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/US-launches-advanced-nuclear-technologies-demonstr
Emerging From Darkness: Britain’s Mass Blackout Drives Push For Ever-Reliable Nuclear Power
By Staff, Stop These Things, Aug 21, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Duke Energy application points finger at solar for increased pollution
By Dan Way, North State Journal, NC, Aug 20, 2019 [H/t John McClaughry]
[SEPP Comment: NOx is commonly called a greenhouse gas. NO2 has a greenhouse effect, but N2O and NO do not.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
British MPs and Oxford dons say “No more cars for you”. Not even EVs!
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 23, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/08/british-mps-and-oxford-dons-say-no-more-cars-for-you-not-even-evs/
Ditch cars to meet climate change targets, say MPs
By Roger Harrabin, BBC, Aug 22, 2019
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49425402
Carbon Schemes
City Backs Deal for CCS Technology to Save New Mexico Coal Plant
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Aug 19, 2019
Farmington NM Fights to Save Coal-fired Power Plant and Mine
Guest cheer-leading by David Middleton, WUWT, Aug 23, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/23/farmington-nm-fights-to-save-coal-fired-power-plant-and-mine/
[SEPP Comment: After presenting significant background material, Middleton makes the argument that subsidizing reliable coal-fired power makes more sense than subsidizing unreliable wind and solar.]
Environmental Industry
War Against Meat: the Continuum
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Aug 19, 2019
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2019/08/19/war-against-meat-the-continuum/
Other Scientific News
Iron-60 discovery in Antarctic provides data on solar system environment
By Staff Writers, Munich, Germany (SPX), Aug 21, 2019
Link to paper: Interstellar 60Fe in Antarctica
By Dominik Koll, et al., Physical Review Letters, Aug 12, 2019
https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.123.072701
US DOE orders exascale computer
By Staff, WNN, Aug 15, 2019
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/US-DOE-orders-next-exascale-computer
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Elton John Pays Carbon Penance For Harry’s Private Jet–So That’s Alright Then!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 21, 2019
Funeral For An Icelandic Glacier
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 20, 2019
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/08/20/funeral-for-an-icelandic-glacier/
Solar road is $6m epic disaster — 4% capacity, broken and so noisy speed-limits were cut
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 19, 2019
THIS BITES Spiders are getting ANGRIER because of evolutionary trick to survive ‘climate chaos’
By Charlotte Edwards, Then Sun, Aug 19, 2019 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/9752305/spiders-getting-angrier-climate-change/
ARTICLES
Endangered Species Overreach
A new rule won’t put more fish and wildlife at risk.
Editorial, WSJ, Aug 16, 2019
https://www.wsj.com/articles/endangered-species-overreach-11565995897
SUMMARY by TWTW: The editorial begins:
“Perhaps you’ve been reading that the Trump Administration wants to make it easier to eliminate polar bears, spotted owls and other species from the face of the earth. As ever in Donald Trump ’s Washington, the reality is different, so allow us to explain.
“The uproar concerns a proposed new rule to revise some practices under the 1973 Endangered Species Act. For all the praise liberals shower on that law, it has achieved far less than advertised. A 2018 report from the Heritage Foundation’s Robert Gordon found that since 1973 the ESA has helped to recover only 40 species, and nearly half of those were mistakenly listed in the first place.
“Meanwhile, the law has become a legal weapon to strip property rights and block millions of acres from private development. Congress ought to rewrite the ESA but can’t break a partisan impasse. So this week Interior Secretary David Bernhardt tried to clarify regulation under the law to prevent abuses.
“The new rule restores Congress’s original two-tiered approach, killing the Fish and Wildlife Service’s ‘blanket rule’ that treated ‘endangered’ and ‘threatened’ species alike. This will devote scarce government dollars—and landowner attention—to the species most at risk. It will also provide states more flexibility to assist species that are struggling though not seriously endangered.
“The new rules clarify vague terms such as ‘the foreseeable future’ to mean only as far as the government can ‘reasonably determine’ a danger of extinction. This will make it harder for activists to use claims of vague future climate damage to declare many more species endangered.
“And the rules remind regulators they must use the same five criteria in deciding whether to delist a species as they did when listing one—destruction of habitat or range; overutilization; disease; inadequate regulation; or other natural or manmade factors. This will guard against special interests that move the goalposts every time a recovered population is proposed to be cleared.
“Another reform would limit the use of ‘critical habitat’ designations that tie up tens of millions of acres of U.S. land. The rules reinstate a requirement that agencies first evaluate acreage that contain the at-risk species before considering new, unoccupied areas. Agencies also must prove that unoccupied critical habitat contains ‘one or more of the physical or biological features essential to the species’ conservation.’
“The goal of all this is to return to a rules-driven, scientific approach to species management.”
The editorial discusses suits then continues;
“Many struggling species live on private land, and the cooperation of owners is crucial for recovery. Environmental laws and regulations should encourage stewardship, rather than penalize private partners. To the extent the rules improve private-public cooperation, the key deer and sage grouse will benefit. Which is supposed to be the point of the law.”
There has been a bit of warm weather in Alaska and media keeps pushing global warming as the cause of salmon kills in a few rivers/streams but to excessively warm water.
I just got back from a vacation there and saw healthy fish spawning in water bodies from Talkeetna to Homer.
As a former fire chief and forest fire warden, I lnow there have been huge forest fires that were under control and now flaring back up.
There is one item media has overlooked and I believe this may have played a role.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/grist.org/pollution/fire-retardants-are-great-at-killing-forest-fires-fish/amp/
With fires of that magnitude they have no choice but to use it.
My two cents.
Great :
“On the plus side, there are no reports that the dead fish caught fire.”
It’s a bit scary. What’s to await by undrowned trouts:
https://youtu.be/NZFG1yAxjdQ
https://www.google.com/search?q=trout+mask+replica+Moonlight+on+Vermont&oq=trout+mask+replica+Moonlight+on+Vermont+&aqs=chrome.
Environmental activism is like a crying baby two seats behind you.
In regards to the SEPP comment “Do they understand the difference between natural climate change and human-caused climate change?” in regards to the article “Emergence of anthropogenic signals in the ocean carbon cycle” — the entire article considers EXACTLY that question, it is the POINT of the article. When might climate change signals become large enough to eclipse natural variability? Answer: for some changes, it takes decades to centuries, for other changes, it is rapid (a few years to decades).
To directly address the question posed by SEPP: A scientist from a top university publishing in a top journal, writing an article specifically about the confluence of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change, likely understands the difference between the two. Now, as for the content creator of a hack-job conspiracy blog asking uninformed questions? Odds are unfavorable.
“A scientist from a top university publishing in a top journal, writing an article specifically about the confluence of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change, likely understands the difference between the two.”
“top university”
“top journal”
Your authorities have no standing. I’m from the 1960s, and I don’t trust authorities. You destroy your argument before you even make it.
SAVE 7 MILLION LIVES PER YEAR BY INCREASING ACCESS TO HYDROCARBON FUELS
By Chris Wright, Washington Examiner, Aug 16, 2019
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/save-7-million-lives-per-year-by-increasing-access-to-hydrocarbon-fuels
Highview Power has unveiled a modularised version of its pioneering “cryogenic battery”.
The company said the technology will be able to store “weeks’ worth” of renewable power at a time, providing a clean alternative to dispatchable thermal generation. It quoted a levelised cost of storage of $140/MWh for a 200MW/2GWh system.
To recover electricity, the air is removed from the containers and reheated, causing it to evaporate back into a gas and rapidly expand. The expanding air is used to drive a turbine and generate power.
Highview Power said the technology has multiple benefits over forms of long-range storage such as pumped-hydro or compressed air. It has a small footprint, can be installed in any location, and unlike many batteries, does not use any hazardous materials.
https://www.engerati.com/smart-infrastructure/article/battery-technology/highview-power-unveils-modular-‘cryogenic-battery’
Seriously ?….Is that a joke ?
To me it sounds like a joke:
“… The system uses surplus electricity to compress air and lower its temperature to minus 196 degrees Celsius. The air condenses into a liquid, which is then stored on low-pressure insulated containers. …”
How do they cool the air to -196?
Water vapor is liquid between 0 and 100 and the other compositions of air, will it be liquid?
All sound bull to me, but I could be grossly mistaken.
renewable wind energy operators how to cool air down to 196 degrees celsius –
https://www.google.com/search?client=ms-android-huawei&ei=H3RmXaehOuKyrgTAxa6QCg&q=Renewable+wind+energy+operators+how+to+cool+air+down+to+196+degrees+celsius&oq=Renewable+wind+energy+operators+how+to+cool+air+down+to+196+degrees+celsius&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-serp.
Re : NOAA Models
Such planetary models boil down t the differential for a voxel , then applied to each voxel in a 3D voxel map of the planet’s surface and atmosphere .
Where is ANY simple statement of that differential , ie: set of equations , for any of the myriad models ?