Mark Albright, from the Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington writes:
Many of us saw the exaggerated headlines about the “massive heat wave” gripping the USA over the past weekend of 20-21 July 2019:
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/heat-wave-2019-extreme-heat-advisory-warning-deaths-latest-weather-forecast-us-nyc-2019-07-20/
Well , there is an explanation, it’s called mid-summer.
Climatologically speaking, the two warmest days of the year were this past weekend: July 20 and 21.
Nationwide, Saturday averaged +0.8 F above climatology while Sunday averaged -0.2 F below climatology based on data from the Climate Reference Network:
https://atmos.uw.edu/marka/crn.2016/usa48/201907.usa48.txt
On Saturday morning, two sites in the Pacific Northwest dropped to below freezing, Stanley ID with 29 F and Meacham OR with 31 F.
And on Sunday morning (21 July 2019) the temperature dropped to 38 F at Great Falls MT, the coldest July temperature of the past twenty years!
Alarmists do so love the “heat index”, as it kicks up the numbers.
Where ever I am in my travels around this great nation I note that the local weather man/women announces temperatures as above “normal” or below “averag.e”
subliminal but effective for the propagandist.
Half the people I know are below average.
below median
On TV here they like to say “we should be at ….” whatever the average temperature is for the date. Of course we shouldn’t be anywhere but where we are.
It was hot over the weekend, here in Southern Illinois, but it did NOT set any records! Just a few years back we had some REAL hot weather, so hot it killed some of our mature trees! It was well over 100 degrees, WITHOUT any fake ‘heat index’! When the temps are only in the mid to upper 90’s, it’s not hot, yet! The so-called ‘heat index’ is just some phony baloney invented by Warmists’ to make us believe we are having RECORD, UNHEARD of high temps! It just isn’t so! A few people may die in the heat, but it has ALWAYS been like that, in the SUMMERTIME!? When it gets hot, sensible people stay in OUT of the heat! Morons, on the other hand, will over-exert themselves and pay the consequences!
A heat index is probably a much better value to monitor rather than temperature alone. The temperature of the air is only one indication of how much heat the air contains. Humidity level is a much bigger factor in the overall heat content of the air.
As humans we do not sense temperature. We sense heat flux (heat transfer in or out of our bodies). That is why a metal table top sitting in the same room as wooden chair ‘feels’ colder even though each is exactly at the same temperature. Because while the table and chair have the same temperature the metal has a much greater heat capacity and will continue to absorb added heat (from your hand) much faster than the wooden chair.
So, humans need to know how much heat they will be exposed to when outdoors and how quickly will this heat be absorbed by their bodies or conversely how little the atmosphere is willing to absorb the added heat their bodies are emitting.
That being said the average person has little to no comprehension as to any of this and merely needs to be told things far more simplistically. So temperature as imperfect as it stands is what gets reported.
It is the thermal conductivity of the material that makes the metal feel colder. Woods thermal conductivity is at least a couple orders of magnitude smaller than metals.
+1
A rocket scientist ought to know the distinction between heat capacity and thermal conductivity.
I recommend leather.
+2. H/T to Greg F. for his succinct statement of the actual facts and physics of the analogue posed and incorrectly answered by (Obviously Not a) Rocketscientist. Should have studied a bit harder.
Me thinks it is Concerned4ReputationofScience ā¦ā¦ that should be studying a bit harder.
Rocketscientist knows very well what he was talking about.
“As humans we do not sense temperature. We sense heat flux (heat transfer in or out of our bodies). ”
I do not think this statement stands up to scientific scrutiny.
Just sayin’.
When it is 90 but feels like 105, what does that mean?
How hot does 105 feel?
Typically in the Midwest or Northeast US in mid Summer, when it is 90 it is also humid.
So 90 has always felt hot.
When did 90 start to feel like 105?
When did 90 used to feel like 90?
When did the 105 it feels like ever feel like it was 105?
And what about wind?
No matter the temp and/or humidity, if it is windy or even breezy and you are in shade, it is much different than standing in Sun w/ no wind.
When will they add in the feels like temp for standing in the Sun?
Or the feels like temp for a day which is less breezy that average (Or is it normal?).
Here is the truth: When it is humid, it feels more uncomfortable.
But only for people and some other animals: Plants hate it when it is hot and dry.
They love it very humid when it is hot. So the higher the heat index BS, the more crops like it.
Here is another truth: Media outlets are deliberately obscuring the fact that they are reporting heat index fake temps as if they were a real thing.
It is not a real thing, because in Summer in most of the US, when it is 90 it is also most commonly humid.
So to simply say 90 feels like 105 due to the humidity of the 90, without also giving a humidity of the 105 it feels like, is bullsh!t.
105 and low humidity does not feel that bad.
Specially not w/ a nice breeze.
Same fake thing as “wind chill factor.” Yeah, if you stand out in the cold wind buck-naked and soaking wet, its gonna feel “colder,” right? Takes “smart” people to make this stuff up!
The real problem is the “weather report,” played for maximum mortal drama, is a very reliable source of clicks, eyeballs, and therefore advertisers.
Being more or less uncomfortable due to factors besides the temp is a real thing and everyone knows it.
Calling it a “temperature” is fake news.
Putting up maps of this made up conflation under headlines screaming about the temperature is deliberately misleading.
Humidity does not change the temperature.
And as I said, other factors are important if someone is outside in hot weather, like if there is a breeze, or if one is standing in the sunshine, like many people do when they are working outside, or playing sports, or just walking down the road.
Wind of course operates to move air past the body and enhance evaporative cooling, no matter what the temperature is. Being bundled up in heavy clothing makes it hard to cool the body, as does being dehydrated.
Responsible reporting on hot weather reminds people to avoid the hottest part of the day outside, stay hydrated, wear loose fitting and light colored clothing when outside, and seek relief indoors whenever possible.
Adding wind as a factor: If the air is cooler than 98.6 F, then a wind may help people to feel cooler. If not, the wind will merely heat people up faster. Fifty years ago (roughly) my wife and I spent some July weeks in Solon Springs, WI, off Highway 53 and maybe a dozen miles from Lake Superior. On July 4 it got to 106 degrees F, and we decided to go to the festival’s baseball game (where, of course, there was no shade). It was windy–steady at 25 to 30 miles an hour with stronger gusts. That wind gave no relief whatever from the heat; it was hotter than our bodies and merely dried us out. We did last through the game, but were exhausted and felt a bit like we has slight heat stroke or the like. Not fun.
Nicholas McGinley – July 24, 2019 at 11:41 am
Humidity is water (H2O) vapor, and water (H2O) vapor is a radiant (GHG) gas, so āyesā, its presence does affect the air temperature.
If the same quantity of CO2 was in the near-surface air as is the quantity of water (H2O) vapor then one could truthfully state that ā¦ā¦ āCO2 changes the air temperatureā.
The humidity (water vapor) in near-surface air will absorb IR radiated thermal energy from the surface or other radiant gasses thus causing the temperature of the water molecule (humidity) to increase.
When I was a kid they would report temperatures “in the shade” and “in the sun”. (Late 1950’s). More people worked outdoors back then, I suppose.
āYUPā, humidity is the most potently powerful global warming āgreenhouseā gas in earthās atmosphere.
Thus, the Heat Index is determined by the amount of humidity in the air, ā¦. therefore the announced Heat Index is ALWAYS greater than the announced air temperature.
It always āfeelsā hotter when the Heat Index is greater than the temperature because the high humidity of the surrounding air ā¦ā¦ retards water (sweat) evaporation from the personās epidermis.
Sweating āsweatā that doesnāt readily evaporate off the skin causes the skin temperature to increase.
do humans perceive temperature or heat-flux (or both …)
https://www.google.com/search?client=ms-android-huawei&ei=aSQ5XYDEF-zhrgSCgpgg&q=do+humans+perceive+temperature+or+heat-flux+%28or+both+…&oq=o+humans+perceive+temperature+or+heat-flux%3F+%28or+both+…&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-serp.
Sweat – the salt / water osmosis mechanics:
Fish regulate buoyancy by changing body weight. The air bladder always holds the same air mass. Per osmosis the fish can uptake water into the body, the air bladder gets compressed, the fish sinks.
Per osmosis the fish can drain off water, the fish rises in environment.
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Humans use the salt / osmosis mechanism to drain body fluids that evaporates from the skin: thermo regulation.
So regardless of air humidity the body should always be accommodated to air temperatures, provided enough salt uptake.
So the alternatives are: body temperature fitting to environment, REAL temperature observation OR die.
https://www.google.com/search?q=water+osmosis+definition&oq=Water+osmosis+&aqs=chrome.
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Everyone feel free to correct me where I’m wrong.
Johann Wundersamer – July 24, 2019 at 10:20 pm
I think you got it āarse backwardā.
Just because humans evolved āsalt emitting sweat glandsā in the epidermis (skin) covering their entire body (head to feet) surface ā¦ā¦. doesnāt prove that said āsalt emitting sweat glandsā evolved as a means of 1) ā draining body fluids, ā¦.. or 2) provide evaporative thermo regulation.
DUH, the human body has an evolved kidney and bladder for draining waste fluids rather than secreting that āwasteā (water) from every pore on the exterior surface as well as from the lungs.
The lungs also excrete water but they donāt excrete water (H2O) as a means of āthermo regulationā, now do they?
The literal fact is, ā¦ā¦ the human body did not evolve the use of salt to drain/flush excess fluids (water) from within its self via evaporation from the skin. A little too much water is not ālife threateningā so the bladder works just fine.
On the contrary, the biological fact is, the human body evolved salt emitting āsweat glandsā over its entire epidermis in order to rid the body of excess salt (NACL). A little too much salt at the cellular level IS ālife threateningā ā¦ā¦.. and it must be gotten rid of poste haste. Too little or too much ingested salt will kill you dead.
It makes no logical sense to claim that H. sapiens sapiens evolved on the āhot-nā-dryā African savannahs ā¦ā¦. and also claim they evolved āsweat glandsā for cooling their body from the Solar heat thereon by said āsweat glandsā emitting copious amounts of water and salt, ā¦..the two (2) most critical nutrients needed for survival thereon said savannahs.
So, ya sweat out your āreserveā of salt and water to keep yourself ācoolā from overheating ā¦ā¦. while running to catch something to eat ā¦ā¦. to keep from starving to death, ā¦ā¦. but you die anyway because of āheatstrokeā (lack of salt) ā¦ā¦. or because of dehydration (lack of H2O).
get a spinal injury and other mechanical joint injuries then add hyperhidrosis into the mix and you’ll see that the heat index is important for health/comfort.
but thats all it is, an index to show how the weather locally affects people. nothing more nothing less.
Believe me, you can feel the difference between 90 degrees and 50% humidity vs. 90 degrees and 90% humidity.
There is nothing fake about the heat index.
On TV here they like to say “we should be at ….” whatever the average temperature is for the date. Of course we shouldn’t be anywhere but where we are.
It is fake when they deliberately obscure the fact they are reporting something other than the actual temp.
Everyone knows humid and hot is more uncomfortable than low humidity and hot.
It is also fake because they do not say when 105 feels like 105: When humidity is very low. Otherwise, 105 feels like 130!
IOW, defining one temp as “feeling like” another temp is mere sophistry.
Implicit in the entire notion is the idea that one is supposed to “feel” a certain way at a certain temp, when of course for each temperature, numerous other factors which have always existed are constantly effecting how a person feels:
– How one is attired
– If the air is moving
– If one is standing in direct sunshine, and/or on a black pavement, a highly reflective concrete, hot sand, fluffy green grass, etc
– And of course humidity.
Some locales are always humid, and some almost always have rather low humidity.
Some places are highly variable.
The real issue here is not if it gets hot and humid in Summertime in many places. The real issue is reportage of commonplace events that are intended to produce a negative emotional reaction in people, and gaslight the public into believing hot weather in Summer is not normal, and that it can be prevented by electing the right people and imposing the proper taxes, and by everyone adopting the correct verbiage when virtue signaling one’s wokeness.
As if hot weather is undesirable. It is the time of year when crops need to grow, and when it has been abnormally rainy, the fastest way to alleviate soggy soil is some hot weather.
Cold temps with wet soil for an extended period can be disastrous for warm weather crops.
MarkW – July 23, 2019 at 4:43 pm
The per se Heat Index is calculated because it canāt be measured directly via an instrument, therefore it is a per se āfakeā number that is assigned to oneās temperature sensing āfeelingsā ā¦ā¦. and itās a literal fact that one person has no way of knowing what another person is feeling. People have a āpain thresholdā, therefore they also have a āheat thresholdā.
Technically, ā¦ā¦ the Heat Index number (degrees C or F) ā¦ā¦ is included in the thermometer measured air temperature ā¦ā¦.. with said thermometer temperature reading dependent upon the amount of humidity in the surrounding air when said temperature is recorded.
The reason for that is, the IR radiation being emitted by the surface will only effect an increase in the air temperature surrounding a thermometer iffen said air contains humidity (water vapor) ā¦.. with said temperature increase being dependent upon the amount/quantity (%) of humidity therein.
I assume one could create a āgrid lookupā for Heat Index temperatures, ā¦ā¦ if not already available.
Pretty sure the heat index has been around longer than the current climate worriers; I remember it decades ago, maybe even back when it was uphill in the snow both ways. Heat index takes into account humidity, because at high temps high humidity makes it harder to cool by sweating.
I think at low temps the effect is the opposite–not because of sweat, since we don’t sweat much when it’s cold, but because humid air has a higher conductivity and greater heat capacity. That’s why we refer to a damp cold.
I’m in IL abt 30 mi E of STL. Although we’re right in the middle that big red splotch, we barely made it to the low to mid 90’s and the normal range is 88-68. The forecast for the week ahead has the temp hitting 1-2 above aver.on the weekend after being below by 3-5 all this week and next week
And of course, we are supposed to just ignore the fact that up until this “heatwave” this spring and early summer were abnormally cool.
I’ve lived in my House in the Dallas, Texas area for 19 years and so far through 6.5 months of 2019, this year has had both the lowest total electricity bill (objective) and the lowest water bill (objective) (and my yard has looked the greenest at this point in the summer – subjective). My heat is Natural Gas, so that doesn’t cost anything, anyway, so cold doesn’t really effect my budget.
In 19 years, so far its #1 of 19 by a long shot. The final 5.5 months could screw everything up, but so far, for a cheapskate like me, best.year.ever.
I had my cheapest June electric bill this year May and April bill were nice January was one of the highest I had down here in Mesa since I moved down here full time in 2007. I will tell you dry heat above 110 F will affect you eyes much worst than humid air at that temperature. As far as my arthritic joints go, heat bring it on.
The ‘Climate Change/Global Warming’ Scam is maintained by relentless propaganda launches concerning any weather event, and not by scientific reasoning or facts. As someone once said”you can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.
Sadly the way the young generation is being taught I think we may have a generation that can be fooled all of the time
And the climate alarmist make fools of themselves everytime.
And of course, the summertime manipulation of the graphics with “Heat Index” instead of actual temperatures mirrors the wintertime usage of Wind Chill instead of actual temperatures to give the perception of things being very, very bad, don’t you know.
Used to be they could report the Nation’s high from Frying Eggs, Arizona, and the low from Hell Froze Over, Minnesota, and that was sufficient. Now the World Must End just before every commercial break.
But of course, the ad revenue contractually jumps if they have a “Breaking News” chyron on the screen crawl.
exactly…it’s all click bait….media, blogs….all of it
when the truth is….no one would have even noticed 8/10th of a degree
….but 40 degrees below “normal” doesn’t count
In Champaign, IL where I am living now, 12 of the first 17 days of July 1936 were above 100, with a peak of 108F on the 14th and part of a 6 day run (and 9 out of 10) days of mean temperatures above 90F. At the same location, we have not had a SINGLE 100 degree day since 2012 and no days with a mean of 90F or above. The heat wave here peaked with 94F and 95F a few days back.
But the climate cretins continue to tell me that we’re warmer than in the 1930s.
BREAKING NEWS!
from 1950
(Source: Washington, D.C. newspaper (which one, unknown) cutting from my grandma’s scrapbook of the family trip back east in 1950.)
“In Champaign, IL where I am living now, 12 of the first 17 days of July 1936 were above 100, with a peak of 108F on the 14th and part of a 6 day run (and 9 out of 10) days of mean temperatures above 90F.”
Now, *that’s* a heat wave!
Can you imagine what the headlines would look like if we had that kind of weather today! The Alarmists rhetoric would be something to see.
But even if it did happen today, it wouldn’t be unprecedented, now would it, because it already happened in the 1930’s. š
No unprecedented heat = No CO2 problem.
When I lived in Maryland, I expected a “heat wave” every summer around the end of July and into early September. I always saw it as normal. Temps in the high 90s and often brutal humidity.
“When I lived in Maryland, I expected a āheat waveā every summer around the end of July and into early September. I always saw it as normal.”
It is normal.
The basic elements are the jet stream dips down into the southern U.S. during the winter and pulls back north during the summer and as it pulls back north, up to around the U.S./Canadian border, it opens up the central U.S. for high-pressure systems to establish themselves and when they do, the whole area heats up. It happens every year.
The amount it heats up depends on how the high-pressure systems move. Sometimes they will move out quickly in a week or less, like the last heat wave we just had, and sometimes the high-pressure system will sit over an area for a lot longer, weeks and even months and in those cases the temperatures get very high indeed, and the ground gets very dry, like what took place in the U.S. during the 1930’s Dust Bowl period.
Above normal. Below average. And, of course, too hot, too cold, grudgingly right. It’s a cautionary tale of renewable greenbacks and political extremes.
Our normally responsible KETV in Omaha used the summer heat wave weather event as a global warming excuse and interviewed a University of Nebraska Professor in Lincoln who predicted Nebraska could experience S. Texas weather in 20 years. Then she pressed for more funding .
I wondered why KETV failed to mention the historic high speed Jet Stream. We now have cool weather, far below that of S. Texas so I called this to the attention of KETV. If they can use seasonal summer temperatures as an example of global warming, I can use temps. to ridicule politics entering into forecasting.
Well, if it is all already settled, why do we need anyone at U of Nebraska looking into climate?
Despite this recent warmth I have a suspicion that we might see our earliest snow in Wyoming this year at the end of August. This past winter was a lot like 1972-1973.
I’ve lived in NE Arizona for 12 years now. Generally saw our first snowfall in mid November. That all changed last year when we had our first snowfall the first week of October and about 4x the average snowfall that I had seen the previous 11 years. So please bite your tongue I don’t want to see an even earlier snowfall even though we do need the precipitation
Ah, but you see, it hit the Northeast corridor of the U.S. and especially NYC. This is where the MSM is located, therefore it affected ALL people in the United States, indeed the world. And while France broiled, Eastern Europe was similarly cool. But that’s not where the bubble-encased news media live, so it didn’t happen.
Excellent points, Mumbles!
Most of the news media does have an east coast bias. They act like it is the only place in the world. If it happens there, it’s big news, if it doesn’t happen there, it’s considered unimportant.
It’s kind of like the Democrats always assuming they speak for everyone in the United States.
East coast bias for a very good reason (grin)… Boston is often referred to as “The Hub,” which is short for “The Hub of the Solar System” and also “The Hub of the Universe.” The original “Hub” is actually a physical place: the Massachusetts State House. Oliver Wendell Holmes coined the phrase in 1858.
Meantime, in a previous story, Lennox dropped its earnings forecast due to reduced air conditioner sales as a result of cool weather.
The MSM can spin the news any way they like but there are always facts to deal with.
I can’t remember the source but a German remarked something like:
There’s spin and there are facts.
Mark Twain once noted: “Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable.”
It was 13 C this morning in Waterloo Ontario. Some “heat wave”. It is still 35+ every day in Beijing.
I have live in the tropics, including Guam, Philippines, and Thailand. There sure was no heat wave in southern Michigan. Of course, when I lived in England, the local folks thought 80 F was a HOT day.
The BBC was reporting it as a huge and terrifying heatwave. But the forecasts for New York looked like the forecasts for New York when I lived there at the end of the 1990 – twenty years ago.
Now in France today it is extremely hotagain but that is a weather phenomenon, not anything to do with Climate change.
To BBC readers, I live in one of the red “terrifying” heat wave states and it already cooled down and is below summer norms now.
What glue should I use to protest the former heat that is normal for my state and which is currently below normal?
I figured BBC readers are most informed about such matters by now with their daily dose of anti-science agenda messaging.
(My only complaint is it didn’t cool down until after the weekend.)
I loved the articles about averages (see below), and how meaningless they are, especially regarding temperatures. Average US temperature today at 1143Z is…who cares? All climate is local!
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/14/the-laws-of-averages-part-1-fruit-salad/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/19/the-laws-of-averages-part-2-a-beam-of-darkness/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/07/24/the-laws-of-averages-part-3-the-average-average/
Climate Change- is there anything it can’t do?
Donald Trump- is there anything he can’t be blamed for?
(besides winning the 2016 election, that was the Russians, of course)
If you can’t take the heat,then get out of the kitchen.I hope my wife doesn’t do that!
History is not taught nor learned much anymore . Very few people are aware of life in the 1930s much less the 1860s . Or even the 1950s .
Easier to guide the herd , I guess .
And it’s not by accident .
It looks like Mark Albright needs to go to remedial sensitivity training class because he is not feeling the angst of the snowflakes. And, as all of us woke persons know, feelings are the most important issue that exists. Wait a minute, did I say “us woke persons”? Never mind.
*Mark Albright* and *he*
Did you just assume zis pronoun???
How dare you?
And let’s not forget the forecast high temperature is rarely met and the headlines generally are referencing forecasts. When the temperature (or heat index) doesn’t hit the big number, you don’t see anything the next day on the news that they were wrong.
For example, the 12Z July 20 GFS had a forecasted high in Central Park of 103F for July 21.. the actual high was 95F. The GFS was also 4-6 degrees too high on many of the forecasts along I-95 in the northeast, but while hot, certainly not out of the ordinary for July.
Everyone note the ENSO meter on the right. It is back down to the 0.5 line after a long period just above it. That is the ending of the El Nino Modoki. Does the cold cometh?
Looking like it could be a super El Neutral. At least there are no obvious signs of anything significant at this point in time.
Crispin in Waterloo, back from somewhere in the world
“Everyone note the ENSO meter on the right.”
Yes I did. But what you didn’t note is that the ENSO meter you are look ing at silently replaced, some months ago, this one I daily compare with its successor:
Switch back and forth between the two, Crispin, and you’ll understand why I get a laugh when I see you askin’
“Does the cold cometh?”
No it doesn’t, and the warm doesn’t either.
I think this statistical analysis has been already done by someone, but if it hasn’t, it should be and then well publicized. If you take all the measuring sites across the country (Anthony’s Urban Heat Project?) and take any strong weather pattern hot or cold passing through the nation from one region to another, what is the probability that one or more of them will register a record for that site just due to the randomness of weather at the micro level? It seems to me (I’m not a statistical expert) the probability is pretty high. If true, then somewhere a record will be broken at some measuring station for every strong seasonal weather pattern even if it is just in someone’s back yard thermometer.
Anyone care to comment?
Fooled by Randomness
Every day, records will be set somewhere. They are random events and it’s a bad error to ascribe meaning to them.
To: commieBob
Thanks for the reference. I was not aware of it. Do you or anyone else know where that analysis has been done specifically in the weather/climate arena? I relish references I can feed to the folks I argue with. It either makes the discussion more rational or at least it shuts them up!
Nothing random about it, the trend is obvious. Get used to a greater number of record hot days.
http://www.guyonclimate.com/2019/07/23/extreme-temperature-diary-july-22-2019-new-australian-record-count-findings/
Really? Google EPA heatwave index …..
Blissful much ?
“Blissful”. I suppose you’re accusing me of ignorance, but if you’d taken your blinkers off and read a little further at that link…
EPA heatwave index
“Heat waves in the 1930s remain the most severe heat waves in the U.S. historical record (see Figure 1). The spike in Figure 1 reflects extreme, persistent heat waves in the Great Plains region during a period known as the āDust Bowl.ā Poor land use practices and many years of intense drought contributed to these heat wave”
Severe yes but, localised and partially man-made.
Google EPA High and Low Temperatures- another part of the same link, it shows today’s larger % of areas affected.
“Nationwide, unusually hot summer days (highs) have become more common over the last few decades. The occurrence of unusually hot summer nights (lows) has increased at an even faster rate.”
But you’re not disputing the ratio of heat records for both the US and Australia I posted above? From your same link:
“6). The most recent decade had twice as many record highs as record lows.
Localized …. so everything is local ?
Pretty large “local” eh ?
š
loydo,
“6). The most recent decade had twice as many record highs as record lows.”
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“the most recent decade” still is randomness.
A decade of observed weather phenomena does not qualify as “climate”.
Post is about USA , not Aus ….
1 – Some time within the next 10,000 years, we’ll slam back into a glaciation. The trend is definitely cooler.
2 – Extrapolation is horse manure. Anyway, by correctly choosing the interval and the end points, I can produce pretty much any trend you desire.
If Earth’s atmosphere warms 1/100 degree each year [I have no idea what it has done, is doing, or will do] then “probability/statistics” inform us that high-side records will occur more often than cool-side records. The reverse is also true.
We have charts for Yakima Washington HERE that indicate neither direction is in control.
The Null Hypothesis is not rejected.
Trend etymology:
https://www.google.com/search?q=word+trend+etymology&oq=trend+etymology+&aqs=chrome.
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Loydo July 23, 2019 at 2:40 pm
Nothing random about it, the trend is obvious.
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What will the next trend bring.
This latest U.S. heat wave was mild in comparison to many in the past. It only lasted a couple of days and now it’s gone. Where I live in the central U.S. I’ve seen heat waves last for months at a time. Fortunately, we haven’t had that kind of weather for a while. Imagine what the alarmists would make out of something like that.
The next heat wave headline will probably be about a heat wave building over Europe. There will be a lot of hysteria by the Media for a few days and then the heat wave will move on.
Here’s a nullschool link of the areas of concern. As you can see, there is a high-pressure system over Europe (I marked the center of it for you) and there is also a high-pressure system over the U.S. southwest. It will get hot in both places, but CO2 plays no role.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-46.34,54.24,401/loc=2.921,54.334
We need a new index to interpret weather reports. I would work similar to the heat index or chill factor. Maybe something like: alarmists claims by “scientists” X news media exaggerations X seasonal factor {higher for summer and winter} X event factor {heat wave, cold snap, tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and phenomena with scary sounding terms like polar vortex, bomb cyclone, etc} = BS index
Citizen Smith,
We already have one. Its called a BullSh!t meter…… : )
OMG. It gets warm in the Northern Hemisphere in summer! I forecast it will be cold in the Northern Hemisphere come Winter.
People pay good money to travel to such a climate. When it occurs in their own backyard they gripe. Donāt worry the English summer will return. The rain is warmer than in winter.
And for my American compatriots, our plumbing and teeth are still bad and the beer warm. And forget the MSM and left wing shrill SJWs , outside the M25, our welcome is always warm to Americans.
God bless America, but he blessed England first š
I’m a 67 year old American with only a few regrets. One of them is that I didn’t visit mother England. I never met a Brit or Aussie I didn’t like.
Back in 1988 NE Ohio had high or higher temps June/July/August as
we just went through from mid June to this past mid-July weekend.
However, unlike this year with no record breaking temps and every-other day
showers and downpours back then we had an honest-to-goodness drought.
That’s what WEATHER is all about.
Well, here in Oregon, we’ve had a nice mild summer so far.
It was an average summer hot spell. What’s unusual is that kind of heat has been rare last couple summers.
Bias alert!
Citing two days out of this summer to cast doubt on _climate_change_? Please send me more cherries when you are done picking.
Meanwhile, over the past 50 years global _land_ average temp is rising @ 0.2C/decade (note: _land_ is higher than _sea_ or _total_. but land is where I live; your experience may differ).
The bias was pretending the weekend was an indication of climatic trend.
Chris, is there some reason you cherry picked the global cooling scare to start your trend? Why not use the best data from satellites and correct for known factors which are not climate related?
Oh yeah, you hate real science. You end up with a trend about 1/3 of the nonsense you spewed.
When are you gonna pay of the debts from the bets you lost, Chris?
I was actually pleased to see little or no alarmism associated with the heat mini-wave. I’m sure it happened, and I don’t doubt that some of you saw it happen, but I didn’t have to roll my eyes once!
There is a massive heatwave every time the temperature goes above 90 in NYC and DC. That is where the media are and anything that happens in their faces is what is important. Anything that happens in flyover country might as well happen in a galaxy far, far away.
Twin Cities MN,
I turned on the air conditioning for four hours this weekend which makes my yearly total, 4 hours.
The morning temperatures for the last couple days have been in the lower 60s (F). My house is well insulated so open windows and fans at night keep the house cool enough to be pleasant all day. This summer has been cool and rainy. Corn crops are 2 weeks or more, less than normal. Nobody wants to buy my motorcycle.
I await NASA telling me I been horribly hot
I like to investigate the NOAA GHCN-Monthly Summary of unadjusted average temps. I know, I know, the TAVG is not the metric to use, but it’s what NOAA provides in monthly summary form, so I’ll look at it.
Here’s the interesting part: if I average each month’s average temp across all of the contiguous US stations, from 1900 to the present, every month but Feb shows a decreasing trend. Feels like I’m doing something wrong, but I can’t find a problem in my logic or my arithmetic.
Lots of “Where I live it is yadda yadda yadda, and has been blah blah blah all year” type comment here tonight.
So here is mine:
In Southern Florida, from early May to early October, it is very hot and very humid every single day.
It is almost never cool or even comfortable outside, unless it is raining heavily, in which case it feels freezing cold, even if you were roastingly hot ten minutes prior.
And sometimes in the early morning between midnight and 6 AM or so it does not feel too bad, as long as you are not moving to fast. But even then if you are wearing long pants and long sleeves to avoid mosquito bites like they recommend, it feels really sticky.
My recommendation is to keep in mind that prior to recent decades, people were always hot in Summer, and usually sticky and sweating, even at night when trying to sleep, unless they lived in a place where it is so cool it is hard to raise a crop, unless of course they were in some magical ideal place where it was just right just about all the time.
Back in the old days, people were typically quite uncomfortable, often hungry, usually dirty, rarely safe and contented, and most commonly in some sort of state of anxiety or fear.
And they liked it!
Right now a cold front is pushing into the state of Florida.
Record low temps are expected across a huge area of the US.
Now, it is for sure that such a push of cool air south will necessarily cause a mass of warm air to surge northwards somewhere else.
How much does anyone want to bet the weather headline of the next several days will barely mention half the continental US is having several days in a row of not just cool but comfortably dry air and that records will be set for how many hundreds of millions of people will have record high comfy index in mid Summer (of course no such index exists), but will instead focus intently on the place where it is of course somewhat hotter than normal?
The odds are 100%.
And it will be mentioned alongside the mentioning of the heat from a few weeks ago, without bringing up the fact that after record warmth in a few spots on a few days, Europe then got very cold, and there was actual frost in July in places like Saxony, a day or two after some places in France had a hot day.
Winter-like jet stream winds across the Western US, noctilucent clouds in the Southwestern US in Summer, feet of snow in Colorado in Summer, snow in New Mexico in Summer, frost in Saxony in mid July…
But these are not headline stories.
The completely normal Summer heat that was in fact very brief and not all that bad by historical standards…those are breathlessly reported and given the appellation of “climate crisis”.
I cannot wait until the climate liar clowns are exposed for the unscientific jackasses they are.
Didn’t James Hansen and a senator pick the hottest average day for the Senate hearing before which they opened the windows to make the air conditioning less effective?
This seems to have helped them add emphasis to their alarm about global warming.
Watch out for the next escalation –
heat thunderstorms!
Sweat – the salt / water osmosis mechanics:
Fish regulate buoyancy by changing body weight. The air bladder always holds the same air mass. Per osmosis the fish can uptake water into the body, the air bladder gets compressed, the fish sinks.
Per osmosis the fish can drain off water, the fish rises in environment.
The control knob for fish / osmosis mechanism is the salt saturation of environment water: drink water / drain off water
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Humans use the salt / osmosis mechanism to drain body fluids that evaporates from the skin: thermo regulation.
So regardless of air humidity the body should always be accommodated to air temperatures, provided enough salt uptake.
So the alternatives are: body temperature fitting to environment, REAL temperature observation OR die.
https://www.google.com/search?q=water+osmosis+definition&oq=Water+osmosis+&aqs=chrome.
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Everyone feel free to correct me where I’m wrong.
From the BBC https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49086783