From the “summer colds are the worst” department
Guest essay by Vijay Jayaraj
A surprising late-June chill broke records for lowest temperatures and made life miserable for many across the world. From Denver, Colorado, in the United States, to Melbourne in Australia, the mercury dropped precipitously.
Many people in Colorado woke up to what would be the state’s coldest first day of summer in 90 years. Up to two feet of snow fell in some places, making authorities issue a winter weather advisory on the first day of summer. Denver especially has been at the center of focus. Record cold caught city dwellers off guard. This year has been the “city’s coldest start to a calendar year since 1983.”
The National Weather Service reported the coldest maximum temperature during the second half of June since 1992 at Chicago’s O’Hare Airport, and news outlets reported that it was unusual for the windy city to experience such low temperatures in the beginning of summer.
On the other side of the world, Australia saw many cities record their coldest first few weeks of winter. Melbourne, on June 23, recorded its lowest maximum for the date since 1985.
And back in the Northern Hemisphere, central England experienced similar historic lows in June, although the temperature was forecasted to pick up the following week due to a heatwave.
But the cooling observed is not just limited to the surface temperatures.
There has been a remarkable cooling in the global oceans, especially the Atlantic and the Pacific. This was totally unexpected, as scientists had forecast a strong warming in the oceans for this month, a weather condition called El Niño.
Experts are divided on what this cold phase actually points to. It might be just a one-off, localized, short-term weather phenomenon, or it might reflect a longer, global-scale climate shift.
Either way it contradicts alarmists’ claims of a warming world. If it were a mere weather phenomenon, then it would mean global warming would result in cold phases (like those in June, May, and earlier months this year), not warmer phases, as claimed by the alarmists. That means climate change will result in cold phases like the ones we’ve been observing in the past two years.
In contrast, if these cold phases are an indicator of a longer climatic shift, then there is no drastic warming but a global cooling.
We might be headed to what NASA describes as a period of “solar minimum,” with temperatures akin to the Little Ice Age that froze Northern Europe in the 16th century.
In its official June 12 communication, NASA stated, “The Sun’s activity rises and falls in an 11-year cycle. The forecast for the next solar cycle says it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one.”
Regardless of whether these cold phases are precursors to a longer cooling period or not, late-June cooling (like similar cooling periods in the past two years) certainly runs contrary to the claim that the world is getting hotter or warmer every year.
After the brief spike in temperatures during the El Niño-driven warmth of 2016, temperatures have fallen globally. This post-2016 two-year cooling resonates and coheres with the overall lull in the warming that scientists have observed during the past two decades, in which spikes in global temperature occurred only when El Niño was active.
It will be interesting to observe how the summer plays out and whether the solar inactivity predicted by NASA will make the 2019–20 winter colder than the ones before.
Vijay Jayaraj (M.Sc., Environmental Science, University of East Anglia, England), Research Associate for Developing Countries for the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation, lives in Bangalore, India.
Mother Nature simply REFUSES to cooperate with the ‘Warmist’s’!
Impeach, impeach.
A clear sign of climate change. Deinvest. /s
[No animals or minorities were harmed in the sustainable production of this message. The Oregon police enjoy my full trust.]
A nimble navigator in the wild!
Drives a Subaru Outback, no doubt.
Woman’s prerogative.
Unfortunately, the ski season in Colorado is winding down. https://kdvr.com/2019/06/27/arapahoe-basin-will-be-open-for-skiing-on-the-4th-of-july/
On the first day of summer, the snow at Squaw Valley was in mid winter form. They will be closing this weekend. If they didn’t have significant maintenance to do on the Funitel, they could stay open a lot longer. Mammoth will be open until August and possibly beyond. BTW, record late closings for the KT22 ‘mothership’ lift have occurred in 2 of the last 3 years and 3 of only 6 times they had enough snow to be open in July have occurred since 2011. This is a far more statistically valid trend than anything the IPCC concocts.
Although, the recent summer cold spell is no more surprising to me than a warm spell in winter. If the climate system didn’t so things like this, it would surely be broken.
Now is the time to name them the global warming criminals.
Millions of people will die because of their psychopathic zelotly.
Most will be children.
But democracy will win thanks to Trump and humanity will look and wonder why it had to suffer this again.
Hitler mentality.
How about the entire liberal government in Canada and all democrats in the U S .
Steve mcdonald June 29, 2019 at 3:23 am
…Hitler mentality.
—————-
I thought the N A Z I protocol was only invoked when you were losing a debate?!
It’s Winter in Melbourne.
We have been in a cooling period since 2002 according to Judith Curry and 2008 according to me. Either way, we have been cooling for at least 11 years. As we know from the last cooling period, it gets worse in the third decade.
Actually, I think it “gets worse” when the Sun doesn’t coöperate with unusually high-solar-activity high cycles. Which, last go, it didn’t. For near-on 12 years, things weren’t rising anywhere near as fast as the Sky-Is-Falling chickadees were pipping. So, the Pseudoscientific community of wanna-be sur-university grad students ginned up all nature of See? See that? It shows with NO countering explanation why we’re ALL Going to Hêll by the fastest track possible!!! Arrgghhh!!!! Repent!!!! Donate trillions to the UN!!!! Lord Gore, Save Us!!!!!
Etc., Etc.
Just saying,
GoatGuy ✓
But every year is the warmest on record!
Cold and miserable in the U.K. since a couple of warm days in February and not a whimper, warm this week and loud screams of global warming and we are all doomed. You couldn’t make this up.
I hope you are being sarcastic. 2016 had that honor thanks to the super El Nino, but since then we have been in a strong cooling trend. It has been tempered by the current El Nino but with that ending this past week I look for the strong cooling to return.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:2016/to/plot/uah6/from:2016/to/trend/plot/rss/from:2016/offset:-0.27/plot/rss/from:2016/to/trend/offset:-0.27/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2016/to/offset:-0.3/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2016/to/trend/offset:-0.3
Look at what happens to your graphic when you don’t use the cherry-picked peak of the El Nino as your starting point: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:2000/to/plot/uah6/from:2000/to/trend/plot/rss/from:2000/offset:-0.27/plot/rss/from:2000/to/trend/offset:-0.27/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2000/to/offset:-0.3/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2000/to/trend/offset:-0.3
Agreed. And look what happens to yours when you put it in a reasonable, human-relateable temperature and time scale. Assuming the anomalies were in C.. they should now be at about 60 F with a top line of random noise at 120 F and a bottom line of random noise at 0 F.
I only wish I could put in the error bars… what do you think +/- 1 F? +/- 2 F? 3? You can find any graph you want in that mess. So much precision from so little accuracy. Dithering.
Looks pretty safe to me. I’m going outside! Enjoy the weather!
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:1900/to/offset:17/plot/uah6/from:1900/to/trend/offset:17/plot/rss/from:1900/offset:-0.27/offset:17/plot/rss/from:1900/to/trend/offset:-0.27/offset:17/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1900/to/offset:-0.3/offset:17/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1900/to/trend/offset:-0.3/offset:17/plot/noise/offset:50/from/plot/noise/offset:-17/from
And France is in a heat wave that will kill thousands…..
Heat tends only to affect those who act unwisely or who are already very frail.
The phrase ‘killing thousands’ tends to suggest that heat is dangerous to all.
It is a cynical attempt at manipulating emotions.
I don’t usually go into moderation. Is there a problem?
You used the K word.
Don’t say ‘k** ill’. The security built to safe against malicious commenters is a bit stupid. I’m permanently in moderation apparently because I said expletive expletive on some high-calibre climate insanity post. I wish everyone remembers we’re being watched and language, such as expressions sexism, may provide big tech an excuse to downrank us even more in search results. They have built all this in their AI.
Hint: duckduckgo if want to search for ‘controversial’ stuff like people who actually stand behind the AR5 report. google is no longer even remotely balanced. It works for pizzerias though. And CNN, should you be interested in that. Note though that duckduckgo will not offer protection against fake news or spin. You will still need to do that yourself.
Try self immolation next time.
The deaths reported initially in France all took place at the beach and the three so far in the U.K. we’re also water-related.
and one of those was, as indicated, from vasovagal shock, induced from COLD water immersion,
that drops their death rate by 33%
news speak . . . `death from cold` is the same as `death from heat`
It is worth remembering that Europe does not expect extreme heat. Unlike the US very few have air-conditioning in offices, schools, homes.
Secondly the humidity in Europe is likely much higher than other places that get extreme heat. It is after all a green and pleasant place!.
Worth looking at is this wiki page showing the danger levels with heat and humidity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_index
One should not minimise the dangers of heat
Nor should one exaggerate them.
Or pretend that they are an elevated risk.
Or even that they are comparable to cold deaths.
The entire eastern US is a “green and pleasant” place.
And in many areas almost no one has AC.
Most schools are not air conditioned in the northern US.
None of the older buildings are.
But portable and window AC units can be bought anywhere for as little as $100 these days, and work fine for cooling a single room.
The use pennies of power a day.
Europe is not in any way special or unique, the people not uniquely delicate or prone to instant death from warm weather.
They may be more given to histrionics.
Hugs wrote: “Hint: duckduckgo if want to search for ‘controversial’ stuff”—I have done some testing with subjects that are super-hated by the left, and I have gotten excellent results on yandex.com. Unbubble.eu is also very good, but returns far fewer hits. Try them out. Main problem with yandex is that “news” searches give you results mostly in Russian, but website searches work fine for Anglophones. Google was the best ever in 2008, but changed their policy or algorithm in 2009 and now it has limited utility. For website searches, Yandex seems to be the best now.
There was a small debate going on in our household this morning (in the middle of France) as to whether it was legitimate to describe drowning as a result of swimming where you shouldn’t in the heatwave or as a result simply of going swimming when you wouldn’t if it wasn’t hot should be counted as deaths due to the heatwave.
They wouldn’t, would they?
They should be counted, along with details of their demise. In 1911, 200 people around NYC died that way and many more by heat stroke, etc. Of course, today AC exists and it inexpensive enough to prevent most such deaths.
https://www.history.com/news/heat-wave-1911-weather-insane
In 1821, 200,000 people supposedly died in France due to heat but I cannot find a good reference. It seems that search engines are adjusting the past.
Temperatures highs are forecast in the 80’s F tomorrow over all of France. There were a few hot days…NOT A HEATWAVE.
The rest of the Globe is colder than average (Ventusky Global Weather App).
R Shearer June 29, 2019 at 5:11 am
…
In 1821, 200,000 people supposedly died in France due to heat but I cannot find a good reference. It seems that search engines are adjusting the past.
—————————–
Good grief! who do you trust for your news?
fox?
breitbart?
Trump?
wuwt?
there cannot be many whom you trust.
Why would they all lie?
Why do not climate scientists not come forward with your “Truth” when they retire. There is no more money in it for them.
How can millions be fraudulently stating facts as they see them? and the real “truth ” of “we was lying all along” not escape from so many institutions???
Or possibly it didn’t happen. As far as I can tell this claim is based on a single sentence in a local American newspaper written 80 years after the event. So far I’ve been unable to find anything relating to 1821 that would support this, and I suspect 200,000 people dying from heat would have left soe sort of record.
I’d be interested if there is any truth to this, but the lack of any evidence so far makes me skeptical. Easier to believe a journalist made up a sensational claim, than there is a mssive conspiracy to remove it from history.
Trust in new media has dropped below 50% so if you trust them you are actually in the minority. It is hardly surprising for the drop in trust they are all just a shell of there former self pushing agendas and paid advertising as their market shrinks.
And they now want to add cancer de*ths to the ROAD toll via inhalation of particulates. Go figure?
couple of days of hot air already fading down and the uk n other spots are low mid 20s looking at nullschoolearth tomightthat got global media wailing but the cold..ignored
Killing thousands?!?!?! Come on. Most people in France have air conditioning and those that don’t are typically the people who newly arrived from areas where 120 degree days are not unusual. These cooling headlines are met with skepticism by folks like you, right? Why would the warming headlines receive less skepticism? Remember weather is not climate — unless its hot. Then its climate, right?
The Sahara is always 100-110 degrees all summer…and sometimes winds shift and take that heat over the Mediterranean into the Continent. Usually only for a few days. That is not a heatwave…it’s weather. A heatwaves are several weeks of extreme heat.
It’s called “summer.” Now considered an unsurvivable, catastrophic “climate crisis.”
We are having weather. We will continue to have weather for the foreseeable future. Weather does not prove climate change.
OTOH, if it does not involve rejection of the “Null Hypothesis”, it is not science. The Null Hypothesis is that there is no relationship between two measured phenomena, or no association among groups.
Lord, am I in a bad mood this morning? Or what?
I think Judith is correct. No warming for 19 years, contrary to earlier very slight warming, and now a long cooling period. How much more evidence do the politicians need before they stop believing the myth of Global Warming?
Could the models possibly be wrong? The myth will continue if for no other reason than that the industry is “too big to fail”
GIGO. See also grand solar minimum. Valentina Krushkova et al.
When can we hang the warmists?
Careful — talk like that will be cherry picked by media that wants this site taken down. Its a good idea to put some disclaimer to indicate sarcasm when making a statement like that.
Have you read Zharkova’s (note spelling) latest paper?
“This trend is anticipated to continue in the next six centuries that can lead to a further natural increase of the terrestrial temperature by more than 2.5 °C by 2600.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45584-3
Add anthropogenic increases and we have serious problem.
Here is an earlier comment by her.
“However, Zharkova ends with a word of warning: not about the cold but about humanity’s attitude toward the environment during the minimum. We must not ignore the effects of global warming and assume that it isn’t happening. “The Sun buys us time to stop these carbon emissions,” Zharkova says. The next minimum might give the Earth a chance to reduce adverse effects from global warming.”
https://www.iflscience.com/environment/mini-ice-age-not-reason-ignore-global-warming/
They still believe the myth of human-caused ozone depletion even though nature hasn’t been cooperating for nearly 40 years.
And that is the model the Climate Change crowd are using to get legislation in place before anyone notices the science is wrong.
There was a hiatus for some 15 years, but when zooming out, all trends point up at the climatological 30 year span. Don’t cling on what happened between e.g. 2002 and 2014.
The logic that El Nino doesnt count is wrong. Of course you can remove the El Nino cycle, what is left is still a modest warming for the last 30 years.
I thought the only warming they could generate was by adjusting the Pacific sea buoys up to match the engine intake readings to getting rid of the hiatus? I’m just a poor ol’ country boy from North Carolina, but that did seem to be rather stupid, even for pseudoscientists.
When they are that obvious in their number rigging it is beyond pathetic. Who in their right (or left) mind would adjust good data up to match bad data? Those with an agenda and total disregard for science.
Funny thing is they actually admit that the buoy data is superior but then adjust it. LMAO. When even amateurs like you and I can spot it you know they are desperate beyond words.
Hugs, there is warming over the last 30 years even without El Nino but that warming appears to be the result of the AMO going into its positive phase in the early to mid 1990s.
I believe it was Santer et al 2014 (figure 2) that showed the only warming occurred from 1990-1995 once volcanic and ENSO effects were removed.
https://media.nature.com/original/nature-assets/ngeo/journal/v7/n3/extref/ngeo2098-s1.pdf
It would be nice to have some ENSO neutral conditions now to see what happens.
The politicians don’t know nor care if the earth is warming, cooling, or staying the same. They will grasp at any “catastrophe” in an attempt to impose their totalitarianism all under the guise of saving us.
‘We have been in a cooling period since 2002 according to Judith Curry’
I’m sorry, that’s not a correct way to state what she would say. The AMO might turn and slow down warming a lot more our alarmist friends would believe. And the El Nino ending probably makes temps plateau for a while.
Not seen your name here often, are you a long time reader?
You lost me at “…according to me.”
From Spencer and Christy at UAH
2008 5 -0.26
2019 5 0.32
. 58C increase
BTW – That makes Don Easterbrook’s prediction way off base.
I don’t keep up with it, so I don’t know if this is normal or not, but 4 volcanoes (Popocatépetl, Raikoke, Ulawun, Manam) have erupted in that last 10 days or so, sending ash plumes 40,000 to 60,000 ft. high. Supposedly, greater than 33,000 ft. has a cooling effect. A hypothesis states that an increase in muons (generated by cosmic rays) triggers explosive eruptions in volcanoes with silica-rich magmas (muons can penetrate the earth up to several kilometers). If true and eruptions continue or increase we could be in for a wild ride in terms of cooling.
@icisil
”4 volcanoes (Popocatépetl, Raikoke, Ulawun, Manam) have erupted in that last 10 days or so”
These were caused by Man Made Catastrophically Disastrous Galactic Warming.
Proves me wrong. Dares yer….
While the El Nino is fading the changes are even more broad. Tropical oceans are cooling. The Atlantic cooling is very strong. Here is the change in the last 7 days.
It will be interesting to see if the next UAH update shows another drop in temperature. Probably a little early given the normal lag but this is not normal.
RichardM
I am picking a slight rise in the NH, and a slight cooling in the SH, 2 meter anomalies for June.
In the South island of New Zealand we have enjoyed calm stable conditions with very little wind for a few weeks with moderate temps. This is a direct result of cooler tropical area not disturbing the SH vortex.
Regards
Look at the eastern tropical Atlantic.
It snowed in Australia because Algore was speaking there. Otherwise, it is starting to look like temperature might be related to solar activity, after all.
The press is too busy reporting on the handful of places that are having record heat waves…
My thoughts also (as I turn on the space heater in my cabin and read about all the record high temperatures on my Weather Channel App).
No sarc
We, at 45N 86W out in Lake Michigan, turned off the heat on the First of June, but still wear sweaters indoors occasionally. My cottage log siding is rotting for being continually wet for so long.
I feel your pain.
Yes only place I’ve seen this is here. In France the heatwave and Women’s World Cup have pushed the Gildts Jaune out of the news.
Oddly the Gilet Jaunes have not been reported in the UK at all for several months.
Mustn’t interrupt the unrelenting anti-Brexit media narrative with a possible reason to leave.
And yes, they are forecasting a heatwave. No sign of it yet in the UK though
I am informed the “heat wave” is today it will reach an incredible 30 deg C possibly 31 in London.
Tomorrow after the heat wave it will be summer as usual at low 20s deg C.
The heat plume hitting parts of southern and central Europe coming off the Sahara is far from unusual, but according to all the news reports it is…”unprecedented.”
One of the “experts” even wove in the line. “This is what we are expecting to see with global warming, just as we are seeing record melt in the Arctic and record loss if ice in the Antarctic”
The loss of ice in the Antarctic spooked me, as it is winter down there so I must check it out….any guesses?
There was a small debate going on in our household this morning (in the middle of France) as to whether it was legitimate to describe drowning as a result of swimming where you shouldn’t in the heatwave or as a result simply of going swimming when you wouldn’t if it wasn’t hot should be counted as deaths due to the heatwave.
They wouldn’t, would they?
Our Max/Min thermometer here in NW Lancashire is showing it reached 29.5C yesterday. Very cloudy now.
warmest spot in antarctica tonight when i checked was minus 15.? on the east coast
elsewhere is minus 44 to 51c
dont see much able to melt at those temps myself
The see-saw effect. When the rest of the world gets warmer, Antarctica gets colder. When Antarctica gets warmer, the rest of the world gets colder. In _The Chilling Stars_, Svensmark and Calder describe how the Solar/GCR theory can handily explain this phenomenon. It is a theory that can explain several climate-related phenomena that otherwise require multiple unique explanations. Ockham’s razor.
Your might wish to check what CERN says about GCRs.
“A considerable fraction of nucleation involves ions, but the relatively weak dependence on ion concentrations indicates that for the processes studied, variations in cosmic ray intensity do not appreciably affect climate through nucleation in the present-day atmosphere.”
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6316/1119
It’s Glastonbury Festival this weekend and for once it is not going to be the usual mud-fest.
Temperatures are around 27C and bright sunshine.
The organisers are providing free water and sunscreen.
Keep well away as with 250,000 people on site the traffic will be horrendous when they all try to leave on Monday.
You kind of lost me, I don’t consider 27 C warm let alone hot. Presently were I am at it 41 C and will see 44 C later today of it cools down to 27 C tonight that would be nice. I have to admit I once though that 27 was warn and 32 C was hot, Presently my home town is about 2900 K from here is presently 19 C which is cold even there for them,a normal high would be around 27C. Looking at further they will be in the 27C latter today. When I grew up I saw 41 C there and 32 C was common, from what my brother tells me that is 32C is no so common any more, the unaltered temperature records do show that.
Has been cold June down here in South Texas. But this time of year we consider a high below 90 to be cool.
It has started to warm up here in Oklahoma. It looks like the summer heat is finally settling in. It’s supposed to be about 95F today, heat index of 103F.
But it will be a good summer because we have plenty of moisture in the soil and we only have until around the middle of August when the serious heat from summer will break, In warmer times, it could get in the 90’s around here as early as March, and no rain, and during years like that, it was a long time getting to the middle of August. Sometimes that kind of weather pattern would hold for more than one year and we would be realtively hot and dry for two years straight. That’s the kind of weather that causes real hardships. Fortunately, we haven’t had that kind of weathe since about 2010, which was a seriously hot year around here, as hot as any I can remember. Fortunately it only lasted for that year. Then we had the Big Rains!
The jet stream has been changing its focus to the upper third of the U.S., focusing storms there and allowing the southern states to warm up. This is normal for this time of year.
Weather patterns are SO interesting! 🙂 The jet streams are the key to understanding weather patterns, as my tv weatherman from the past, Gary Shore, used to teach.
It’s finally going to be hot in western WI, so keep that cold crap to yourself!
Ha! Don’t we know it Colorado!
This year we burned 3 cords of firewood instead of usual 2 — but it wasn’t enough!
Now we are buying 6 cords of firewood for the next cold seadon, just in case.
Meanwhile, money-sucking scaremongers continue yelling about heat waves.
Defund them! Defund these blackguards now!
Etched into my memory is the famous John Humphries of the BBC Today programme asking a little girly scientist whether she was ‘scared’ by the 2016 El Niño producing the HOTTEST YEAR EVAH! No, she was ‘concerned’, the poor love. Did JH ask ‘by how much? (Oh point one deg C since the 1998 El Niño) of course not. Was she asked back to explain the subsequent fall of 0.5degsC? Of course not.
“Surprising Summer Chill Baffles Global Warming Alarmists”
I’m it doesn’t, since in their minds, warm is hot and cold is warm.
Should have read “I’m sure it doesn’t…”
And the media focus is on a couple of hot days in the south of France and in Italy.
They have to stick with the official narrative. 🙁
Nuff said Joe. Here in Europe it’s all about the “Heat Wave” in the news. Nothing will appear about cold in the US or Australia for sure.
JN
But how can there be a heat wave? Doesn’t Europe have carbon taxes and/or carbon credit trading?
The Liberals, Greens, etc. in Canada say if we pay a carbon tax that will stop bad weather events; floods, droughts, heat waves, forest fires, etc. 🙁
What’s happening in France and Italy is more serious than just a couple of hot days. It’s not the end of the world either, sure.
The French woman’s soccer team might think it’s the end of the world. 🙂 USA, USA!
thousand years ago the Rivers Rhine, Loire and Seine dried up due to droughts. Now that is a heatwave.
It’s not “just a couple of hot days in the south of France”. Virtually whole of France is having what is in many places record heat FOR JUNE. Four départements in the south are under a red warning for the first time, though admittedly that system is not all that old.
I’m not suggesting anything except that this is weather but it’s a bit freakish for this month. August would be a different matter.
* What’s the betting this is all the summer we get and August turns out cold and wet? Pity because the maize crop round here looks like being a cracker this year!
My wife and I have spent the first three weeks of June in the province of Tarragona, Catalonia in Spain for the past 15 years. This year, although the weather was generally very good – lots of sunshine, it was much cooler than usual. Typically on sunny days it was 22’c rather than the usual 28’c. We didn’t switch on the air conditioning once, that was a first. On the one rainy day (Tuesday 11th), we visited a nearby town, driving back to our property in mid afternoon the car’s thermometer didn’t rise above 14’c. We have never seen afternoon temperatures that low before. But the media are getting excited about a couple of days of high temperatures.
Meanwhile, in Europe, heat records on the day that USA plays France in football.
Problem: Regarding global warming/cooling – – no one seems to know what is going on.
Solution: Build windmills and throw money at the United Nations.
Good thing we rebranded “Global Warming” to “Global Climate Change” so we can bitch about what’s happening without having another embarrassing incident like changing signs in Glacier Park because the damn glaciers wouldn’t melt.
Now, no matter what happens, it’s worse that you thought.
Always enjoy your posts JC but, of course, ‘we’ did not rebrand global warming ‘they’ did. And I never do. When writing anything anywhere about this issue – or talking about it – I always refer to global warming. Because that is what the warmists mean when they talk about climate change – which is why we call them warmists. Don’t play their game. Never give in. Always ‘global warming’.
So true
It must be global warming. The alarmists never deny that the whole thing is caused because (they contend) more atmospheric CO2 traps more heat. Are they then going to say that more heat doesn’t make it hotter? No. In fact they say we can’t let the heat rise exceed 1.5C.
A 1.5C rise in temperatures, by itself, isn’t at all scary. It would probably be net beneficial. So, they have to posit sea level rise and increased storm damage. That’s why they started calling it climate change.
It has been warmer than this during recorded history. ie. we have the written records of those who experienced that warmth. The evidence is that extra warmth brings prosperity. Warmer is Richer. You could argue that warmth brings more storms, or not. The net effect, however, is hugely beneficial.
So, it’s global warming and it’s good.
The extra CO2 is also beneficial. Plants are starving at 250 ppm. They like 1000ppm.
Not only do plants starve at 250 ppm, but during the last ice age, all the plants died when CO2 hit 180 ppm. All life on earth died as a result of plant life starving to death.
The source of the rebranding:
“We have spent the last seven years examining how best to communicate
complicated ideas and controversial subjects. The terminology in the upcoming
environmental debate needs refinement, starting with “global warming” and ending
with “environmentalism.” It’s time for us to start talking about “climate change”
instead of global warming and “conservation” instead of preservation.
1. “Climate change” is less frightening than “global warming.” As one focus group
participant noted, climate change “sounds like you’re going from Pittsburgh to
Fort Lauderdale.” While global warming has catastrophic connotations attached
to it, climate change suggests a more controllable and less emotional challenge.”
http://aireform.com/resources/archive-2002-memorandum-to-bush-white-house-by-gop-consultant-frank-luntz-17p/
It’s weather, not climate.
Ah, but this is why we have to say “climate change” now, and not “global warming”. CO2 causes all anomalies in weather, be it hot or cold, cool or warm, and it also makes all events much, much worse than they would have been. For example, in my little part of the world, I have enjoyed a perfectly nice day for the time of year, temperature about average and no wind or rain. But it has been the worst pleasant day ever! Because CO2. Capiche?
France is suffering a heatwave;
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/france-records-highest-temperature-ever-as-europe-fries-in-heatwave-20190629-p522gr.html
I love the “highest temperatures ever” headline when the records only go back a gnats fart of time in the past.
Heatwaves are caused when high-pressure weather systems sit over one location for a period of time. The longer the high-pressure system sits there, the warmer and drier it gets underneath.
The alarmists apparently want us to believe that CO2 causes that high-pressure system to sit over a location and heat it up. The alarmists don’t explain how this connection could be made, they want us to take it on faith.
I would like the alarmists to explain to us how CO2 is in command of the way high-pressure systems behave, and where they stop, and for how long. Because that’s what they are saying when they claim the heatwave in France is caused by human-caused global warming (CAGW).
The heatwave is actually caused by a slow-moving high-pressure system and CO2 has nothing to do with it. When the high-pressure system moves out, the temperatures will fall. Simple. No CO2 reductions required.
Enough cold weather worldwide and I expect to hear
“Gentlemen, start your engines”
Live in Nebraska and usually have had to run the AC several days before the end of May. However, this year the AC was not turned on till this week. I have had to wear a jacket several times when mowing the lawn. Then on June 23rd while walking the dog I thought to my self “This spring reminds me of early summer in northern Vermont,” which I frequented while in the Navy.
It wasn’t cold everywhere, or anywhere near everywhere, not even everywhere in the contiguous US. The Southeast and South Central US was warmer than not.al in June and May. There was a persistent jet stream dip in the Rockies, and one of the results of it near the warm humid air in the Southeast and South Central US was the storm hyperactivity of May and early June. And the Central US is much warmer than normal now.
NH sea ice is quite low for the time of year according to Arctic Roos at https://arctic-roos.org/observations/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic Area is barely lowest for the time of year, and second lowest is 2012. Extent (area of ice and water combined in areas with ice concentration at least 15%) is in a 3-way tie for 2nd place with 2017 and 2012, with first place which is barely less being 2016. Both extent and area are falling faster than they have done on average this time of year during the era of monitoring with satellites made for this (1981 onward).
SH sea ice is also lately running at close to record low for the time of year. With both NH and SH sea ice being close to or pushing record lows, NH sea ice area and extent falling faster than average, and a major heatwave in Europe and a minor one in much of the US, and sea surface temperature anomaly being significantly warm in most of the world’s oceans, I think the planet is not on the cool side lately. I expect the UAH TLT global temperature anomaly for June to be released very soon, and I also expect that it will be close to its May 2019 number of +.32 degree C above the UAH baseline of 1981-2010 average.
Temperature in the Arctic this year is exactly where it should be if you look at the mean temperature curve, calculated since 1958. So no, “planet is not on the cool side lately” — it is in its usual side. Icelanders are sorely disappointed.
Temperature in the Arctic this year is exactly where it should be if you look at the mean temperature curve, calculated since 1958
Rubbish, take another look.
You are right it seems if anything that the Arctic temperatures are slightly lower than normal today.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png
I took another look, and it’s still there…
Temperature within 10 degrees latitude of the North Pole during the summer is generally regulated, and will be as long as that area in the summer is dominated by wet ice. The temperature variation there during the summer and from one summer to another is very small and with low correlation with global temperature.
Loydo, did you even look or you are a typical CAGW troll? “No matter what the data says the world is doomed, it’s worse than we thought and CO2 from man is to blame.”
At least “troll” with some science…
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png
you do realize how much energy it takes to turn ice to water?.
during the summer the arctic temperature rarely rises much above 0°C in ANY year.
The minimum levels of arctic ice seem to be lower when the end of season cooling is delayed. Summer temperatures so far seem to have little effect on the final minimum.
Wait there ice there I thought it was all gone?
This just in: UAH v6 TLT global for June 2019: +.47 degree C anomaly, with respect to its current baseline of 1981-2010 average. That’s its highest since October 2017, its 19th highest of 486 monthly readings, and its second highest June reading (1st place was in 1998 during the great El Nino). The world has had an especially warm June, not an especially cool one.
“It wasn’t cold everywhere, or anywhere near everywhere, not even everywhere…”
Repeat it 5000 times more, and may be somebody would believe you.
Central US is not much warmer than normal we’ve had the coldest June that I can remember in Chicago. We haven’t had a 100 degree day in over 20 years now, use to get those every year
Here in Southern Australia we have had very cold lows for 5 consecutive nights. The coldest since I moved here 15 years ago. Average is 2 frosts over winter (over 15 years) but we have had 4 already and the coldest month yet to come.
And EU media attempts to promote yesterday as the hottest day, ever.
Cute summer dresses are on the loose, we’re all glad to trade some weight penalty for dry grippy runaways and snow free wings, yes, summer rocks !
No matter what green “scientists” say, summer / hot weather operations are much safer than winter ones as “hot” limiting factors are known and predictable. Which is by far not the case for snow storms and other “cold” niceties.
Cold has claimed, and still claims, infinitely more passengers and crews than”hot”.
Just saying, think of it next time you board a plane to climate conference junkets.
” many cities record their coldest first few weeks of winter. Melbourne, on June 23…”
Which cities were they? In Melbourne, we had a cold day on Sunday, and then a beautiful week. Every day over 16°C, in winter. Yesterday reached 19.5°C; even this morning was over 17°C. The average max for June to date is 14.7C, normal is 14.1C.
Lucky you Nick. We live two hours from Melbourne and recorded, on consecutive days, -5, -4, -3, -3, -2C minimums. The first three we had frost in the shade until lunchtime and ice in buckets and bird bowl. We don’t live up the mountains either. The daytimes were clear and sunny but cool, very pleasant.
Today we had some much appreciated rain, to add to earlier falls.
Nick do an internet search on icicles Alice Springs
It would seem that the East and South East coastal strip of Australia is the one part of the continent that is not colder than normal. Darwin and areas around it have experienced some of the coldest temperatures ever some down to 5C, Alice springs has freezing temperatures.
https://aussieactu.com/index.php/2019/06/25/icicles-form-in-alice-spring-as-desert-city-shivers-through-winter/
Loydo – try to check references and facts: Nick quoting temperatures from Melbourne as representative of Australian temperatures, is like me in Florida saying in response to someone reporting it has been cold in Denver, saying what do you mean cold it was 30C here yesterday?
“Nick quoting temperatures from Melbourne “
It was the WUWT article that quoted Melbourne, not me
“to Melbourne in Australia, the mercury dropped precipitously”
The icicles in Alice were caused by someone leaving on a spray system on a frosty night. There is nothing unusual about frosty nights in Alice. In June 2018, for example, 11 nights dropped below freezing.
Most likely, we are starting to see the thermal consequences of increased global cloudiness from more wavy jet stream tracks as predicted by me several years ago.
Except making too much out of cold snaps is just as bad as making too much out of heat waves.
We need a clear-cut trend.
It’s been cold and wet in the Edmonton area of Alberta for almost two weeks now. Many days the temperature wouldn’t get over 15 degrees C. We needed the rain, but now it doesn’t want to stop.
Read the post again!
Ya but Melbourne is not supposed to have cold days.
Oh, but it does! We were never so cold as we were in Melbourne in a flimsy brick veneer house in the mid-eighties. Nor when we had frost on the roof in a house in one of the eastern suburbs of the city.
We get colder in winter and hotter in summer weather in the rural area we now live in but have a better insulated house that we built to replace the poorly insulated one originally here.
It is some time I have given up on global-warming morphed to climate-change (this last the stupidest/cleverest yet synonym , as of course climate changes, it is whether people can do anything about it).
The world is a global village, and the TV and internet are its agora, where people go and shout their beliefs.
On the European side of the word there is a heat wave up to Poland. In Greece we are having a temperate June, but the weather reports on TV are enamored with heat, and talk of the maxima in found in cities.
Have you heard of hubris? ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris )
>Hubris (/ˈhjuːbrɪs/, from ancient Greek ὕβρις) describes a personality quality of extreme or foolish pride or dangerous overconfidence, often in combination with (or synonymous with) arrogance. In its ancient Greek context, it typically describes behavior that defies the norms of behavior or challenges the gods, and which in turn brings about the downfall, or nemesis, of the perpetrator of hubris. The adjectival form of the noun hubris is “hubristic”.
I think that is the state of the religion of global-warming/climate-change, and I hope that nemesis does not take over.
Look where we are heading
, and hope that Nemesis is not getting ready to strike.
anna v wrote: “as of course climate changes, it is whether people can do anything about it”—evidently you have not heard about one the warmists’ complementary hypotheses, “equilibrium theory.” It basically says that the global climate remains, more or less, at equilibrium except when it is disturbed by human activities. They have other “alternative” theories too, for example, that *reducing* (rather than increasing) the temperature difference between the equatorial and higher latitude regions will make the climate more volatile. This “theory” reverses both mainstream meteorology and the experiences of billions of people every winter, yet somehow it is the AGW skeptics and not the climate cultists who are the “science deniers.” Yet the more hoops they have to jump through to explain away reality, the more the mainstream media and establishment politicians repeat that “the world is getting warmer” and “the science is settled” and “97% of climate scientists agree, so shut up!” ad nauseam.
Speaking of hubris and ” stupidest/cleverest yet synonym”, here is the source:
“We have spent the last seven years examining how best to communicate
complicated ideas and controversial subjects. The terminology in the upcoming
environmental debate needs refinement, starting with “global warming” and ending
with “environmentalism.” It’s time for us to start talking about “climate change”
instead of global warming and “conservation” instead of preservation.
1. “Climate change” is less frightening than “global warming.” As one focus group
participant noted, climate change “sounds like you’re going from Pittsburgh to
Fort Lauderdale.” While global warming has catastrophic connotations attached
to it, climate change suggests a more controllable and less emotional challenge.”
http://aireform.com/resources/archive-2002-memorandum-to-bush-white-house-by-gop-consultant-frank-luntz-17p/
This is where we are headed; notice the uptick at the end.
Some additional detail from past 10,000 years.
http://www.realclimate.org/images/Marcott.png
Don’t even bother Nick, this is one for the true believers.
“We have been in a cooling period since 2002 according to Judith Curry and 2008 according to me. Either way, we have been cooling for at least 11 years. As we know from the last cooling period, it gets worse in the third decade.
“Ah, but this is why we have to say “climate change” now, and not “global warming”.
How can you argue with that?
Loydo: Its hard to argue with it and be rational. How the wordsmiths sold all you folk on it is the bigger mystery. How much can one take and still hold the course could be a good Vegas betting situation.
Look at the trends; look at the means. Weather ≠ climate.
IPCC says climate is the average of 30 years of weather.
IPCC say a lot of very wrong things, nothing unexpected there.
Weather ≠ climate
You’re always simple, but for once you’re right. Weather is real. Climate is not — it’s an abstraction.
As many others here have mentioned, we’ll soon experience at least 30-years of global cooling when the Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic oceans all enter their respective 30-year ocean cool cycles as occurred: 1880~1910, and 1945~1978.
Moreover, additional global cooling will occur because of the 50-year Grand Solar Minimum, which just started.
It’s also very interesting to observe that the strongest 63-year string of solar cycles in 11,400 years occurred during a Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) event from 1933~1996.
When the GSM ended in 1996, the global warming trend also suddenly stopped from June 1996 to June 2015 (aka the Hiatus), despite 30% of all manmade CO2 emissions since 1750 being emitted during the Hiatus, which suggests sunspot activity, ENSO, and 30-year ocean cycles are the primary drivers of climate, not weak-sauce CO2.
The Hiatus was interrupted when the 2015/16 Super El Niño event occurred, but next year’s La Niña cycle will be a strong one, and will negate most of the lingering affects of the 2015/16 Super El Niño warming spike.
It seems highly likely that by 2026, a 30-year cooling/flat trend will reappear (starting from 1996), and will continue off and on for at least 30+ years as the cooling effects of 30-year ocean cool cycles, and a 50-year Grand Solar Minimum continue.
Europe is small, so a big HIGH, cantered over North Africa can easily
cause warm air to cover most of the Western part of Europe.
Here in Australia we get the same effect, Australia is about the same size
as all of Europe, and has a large desert area. So during the summer we can
get a North wind and the hot air from the desert will come down to the South
of the continent.
In the summer its unpleasant, in the winter of course its very nice.
Its all called weather, climate is a 30 year average.
MJE VK5ELL
“Surprising Summer Chill Baffles Global Warming Alarmists”
err. no it doesnt
Of course it doesn’t.
They don’t know anything about late springs and crop failures and snows in June and cooling oceans.
Their shepherds and guardians see to that, maintaining the eternal sunshine of their spotless minds.
Sorry do you need a bit of English education?
“Baffle (verb): 1540s, “to disgrace,” of uncertain origin. Perhaps a Scottish respelling of bauchle “to disgrace publicly” (especially a perjured knight), which is probably related to French bafouer “to abuse, hoodwink” (16c.), possibly from baf, a natural sound of disgust, like bah (compare German baff machen “to flabbergast”). The original sense is obsolete. Meaning “defeat someone’s efforts, frustrate by interposing obstacles or difficulties” is from 1670s. Related: Baffled; baffling.”
So who was baffled? No incidents quoted.
You clearly don’t get the humour of a physicist from Scotland explaining English to an English major from America.
Alarmists. You’ve never said you were one Nick, but if you are I’ve a serious question I’ve been asking that is never answered. Are you as worried today about global warming as you were in the previous decade or two?
Yeah but they took the baffle out after the advent of the “Dreaded Pause” precisely because global warming stopped being a descriptor for mainly what was actually happening.
BTW this is the first time you’ve identified unequivocally with alarmists. I’ve been wondering something. Are you guys as alarmed today as you were a decade or two ago?
Mosher your not a Climate Scientists so what evidence do you want to present?
We seem to be missing the story ‘surprising early summer extreme heat doesn’t surprise western Europe’ ??
with temps not only breaking June, but all time summer records?
I’m sure France will melt away and raise the sea level by up to 20 feet. /s
We”re having the corresponding N to S wind, about 20C (‘about 20C or 68F colder’ /s) than there. I’m not baffled but will tell you it makes feet cold.
Fried Frenches are quite popular. 😉
No Surprise at all, Griff, happened many times before, but media is obsessed by extremes, which appear to be regular as clock work, which btw. makes them non-extremes.
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/CET-June.htm
BBC just quoted UK’s ‘extreme’ recorded at Charlwood, Surrey, a small village which is bordering Gatwick airport where aircraft are landing or taking off every 30 sec
https://www.flightradar24.com/51.15,-0.2/14
I doubt that this village has a proper weather station, and reading is most likely from the airport’s station, but the BBC editors prefer not to quote the airport as the source for ‘scientific’ reasons.
BBC, UK latest:
top temperature 34C (no records broken) at Heathrow (that is one of the busiest international airports), I think that the S-box is adjacent to the northern runway, but not sure.
Yes it is on the grass North of the northern runway at an ‘express exit’ where many aircraft will be in reverse thrust with efflux in the 300C – 600C range. As people walking the perimeter road will know there is often a ‘warm draft’ from these aircraft.
Here in Australia we will do our bit and export extra coal for them and someone in Asia/India will burn it for them to help out.
Just putting it out there lots of hot air at Democrat debates and France with unusually hot weather. That is classic climate science correlation right there.
About four volcanoes have been ejecting to the tropopause over the last fortnight to varying degrees. Popocatapetl, two Indonesian ones, one in the Kuriles, and one north of New Guinea. Any thoughts on what could be happening and likely effects. I mean, Pinatubo was one, but five? Brett Keane
It should have no relevance whatsoever because surely ONLY CO2 can affect global temps……?
Surely?
My mistake, six over 30,000ft! Mostly well over and equatorial. BrettKeane
You cant win with these guys. Everything is due to mans C02. Warming, cooling, droughts, floods, storms, crop failure, dying coral reef, dead sea turtles, etc, etc, etc
Planets greener, crop yields are high, plenty of food. Sure, weather happens, climate changes, with or without man, but they will never admit this and the foundations and government pump billions into the lie so they cant be stopped
“Baffles Global Warming Alarmists”
Nah, it’s ALL consistent with………
At the same time that Europe experiences a heat wave, Arctic ice strengthens to normal levels:
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
That chart shows Arctic sea ice as 1.3 million square kilometers below the 1981 – 2010 median value for the 28th June. It’s currently the 3rd lowest for that date – about equal to 2012 which went on to have the lowest minimum on record.
Why 1981 to 2010? Why not the full length of all recorded measurements?
The NRCS Snotel sites (annual precipitation for irrigation purposes in the western us) also use that range for the average when they have data up to and including this year.
Why would you stop updating your data to the most complete information available?
It is called CHERRY PICKING. 30 years is a magical MINIMUM for climate change, not the end-all be-all unless it suites someone’s needs.
And when speaking of climate, why would 30 years be long enough when known ocean cycles are far longer than that. Why not 100 years? 500 years? Oh, because we only have 30 years of VALID data? But if the documented adjustments for old temperature data in the US had not been done and if the US had run the old and new sites simultaneously for 5 years or so when the sites were relocated of methods changed, we would have, at least in the US, over 100 years of valid data.
Thanks Anthony, for showing the faulty nature of so many of the current sites, and in many cases the step wise changes in temperatures when the changes in locations and/or methods occurred. And again, it seems, always to higher temperatures.
I mentioned the 1981 – 2010 median value because that’s what’s used on the chart Phil Salmon was using to claim Arctic sea ice was at normal levels. 1981 – 2010 is most of the recorded measurements for that chart which starts in 1979. You can use any average you like – it won’t show sea ice at normal levels.
Drake asked, “And when speaking of climate, why would 30 years be long enough”—It is not long enough. 30 years is used because it is a sort of bare minimum number to get real statistical significance when analyzing data that plot a Gaussian distribution. Problem is, weather data are not “normally” distributed. That problem is inconvenient, so they just ignore it. They ignore lots of inconvenient truths. The political agenda came first (transfer power from accountable national institutions to unaccountable international institutions), then the theory that would justify the agenda came second, and all data must either fit the theory or be ignored. Not conspiracy theory, just the history of the movement. The left has been discussing this option at least since socialist economist Robert Heilbroner wrote _The Human Prospect_ in 1950, and unabashed one-world-government proponent Maurice Strong finally seized the initiative to turn the dream into an active, UN-sponsored project in 1990, although some of the groundwork for the project was laid by activists working since at least 1976.
Funny Maurice Strong name does not appear.
http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/11/01/ipcc_beginnings/
50 years ago when we got cold or hot we called it “weather”, but today’s kids are so sophisticated and scientifically “literate” that they call the same thing “climate change”.
No June anthropogenic warming here
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/CET-June.htm
Thanks for this paper ! Here, in France medias, green activists and government are completely mad due to this heat wave. They see THE evidence of global warming ! In south of France I had 44°C in my garden during… 1hour and half… Nights are fresh and it’s a beautiful sunny summer to get a pastis or a good cold beer watching girls at the pavement of a “bistrot” !
PS : Americans were better than Frenchs yesterday in fourth final of world feminine soccer… Snif !
French Geog: not only are we not supposed to watch the girls, there aren’t any girls now to watch, apparently, on the western side of the Atlantic. We are rationed to watch a dozen other genders equally. I miss France!
“Surprising Summer Chill Baffles Global Warming Alarmists” Perhaps a better word than “baffles” would be “worries”. It threatens the Warmunist ideology and careers of the bandwagoners.
What’s the problem?
1st day of Summer 6/21/2019: overnight temp was 52F; 50F at 6AM; 66F and sunny at noon; 59F by 9PM. I had the furnace running all day. Cats were chilled, went under the fleece blankets on the bed. The real benefit is that I don’t have to run the air conditioner at all. Nice breeze through the windows.
What’s the problem, again? It’s good sleeping weather and a drop in the bucket of summer’s weather, that’s all. It’s just weather. We’ve had chillier than that in June. And it keeps the sweet corn sweet, and the watermelon mellow.
Let the idjits go into panic attacks about it and spout denials about it. They have a mental issue. The rest of us don’t.
What’s the real problem, aside from the poor grasp on reality of the Greenbeaners and Warmunistas?
In the sunny south-east of England it is quite warm and at 1300 BST my patio thermometer which is in a corner on a wall and currently well out of the sun until later in the day it is 84F. There is a bit of an easterly breeze but that doesn’t affect the thermometer. All 3 models on Ventusky have the temperature falling way back down tomorrow so this is not a heatwave but just one warm sunny day. The last couple of days have been sunny but with a very strong easterly wind which has made the evenings very cool, especially in the country where I live. In fact driving home from the southern outskirts of Greater London last night, I had a bit of heat on in my van.
In coastal Devon we have had pleasant temperatures the last week up to about 74F but the wind has been a noticeable and cooling feature.
Actually the whole of Western Europe is currently in a searing heatwave, courtesy of air coming straight up from the Sahara. All time record highs have been recorded in Spain and France.
This should not blind the other European feature of 2019, namely the highest snowpack at the end of May for nearly 50 years. That is clearly melting very rapidly as we speak and end of June figures will not be close to a record.
So the biggest feature is high divergence from mean weather, in both directions.
This is the first article that touches on my point for which I haven’t been able to get much traction even from sceptics, and even though my prediction that NOAA’s forecast of an El Nino (however modest) was not going to develop because of the lack of warm water volume in the ITCZ!
Moreover, I identified a new mechanism at work and have been hitting this since before the 2015/16 El Nino happened, and that is the switch from “persistent hot blobs” in the temperate zones to “persistent cold blobs” and the slanting equatorward of cold water from these blobs to cool the Enso “boxes” instead of the usual simple upwelling of cold water in the eastern Pacific. This is what caused the record 0.5C plunge from the peak of the El Nino which I described in a few posts here. NOAA’s forecast of the “coming El Nino (and even Bob Tisdale’s) seemed uninformed of these glaring changes.
Now, having said this, I think Vijay’s article is a bit unfocused and hops and jumps to cool spots somewhat in the way our torrid world proponents do with hot spots. But, he is onto something important climatologically although he is only expressing wonder in the article. The persistent cold water distribution is a noteworthy phenomenon.
Let me predict the agencies got the active Huricane season dead wrong, the ENSO is going cold and the persistent cold blobs will be additive to an ENSO global cooling. I can’t see how it could be avoided.
Like most stories about the climate, it’s complicated. Here in South Central Alaska we are having a heat wave like they haven’t seen since the 8o’s! Combined with the smoke from the coastal forest fires that has drifted into the region, the press here and much of the population are seeing this as proof of global warming! The truth is, while progress is being made, we still don’t really have a good handle on how the sun’s energy is distributed around the globe, let alone enough information to model it accurately! We are far from “Settled Science”!
Fergie
Fergie, fair enough, it ain’t simple and it ain’t settled. The hot weather you are experiencing in southcentral AK is likely inpart “return” air from the south, from a ‘polar vortex’ over the rest of the continent that never really quit from last winter. Blizzards in the Rockies in late June (Denver, etc) and temperatures in the 60s and 70sFs in Texas and California are part of this.
My thoughts are that Enso is cooling because of all the cold water heading equatorward, and given a multimonth lag in its effect on global avg temperatures, we have much of this cooling to look forward to. If the “cold blobs” stick around, too, they will add to it. Anyway my predictions are out there for the better known effects of this cold water.
I’m not sure what you mean by “historic lows”. The first two weeks of June were on the cool side, but hardly historically low. The linked article quotes a provisional CET to the 14th of 12.6C. Assuming the adjusted figure will be a bit lower than this, it still makes the start of June about the same as 2015, and warmer than 2012 and 2001. Equal third coolest this century is hardly historically low.
Up until that date you mention CET was said to be the 16th coolest in the 350 year CET record. That makes it historically interesting, but the forecast was for it to warm up considerably from the middle of the month which indeed it has. So I doubt if June will turn out to be anything but pretty warm
tonyb
Yes, that’s what the alarmist article linked in the head post says. But that’s comparing the first 2 weeks of June this year with the average for the entire month of previous years.
Using the daily CET and comparing with just the first 14 days of each June shows this year to be around 40th coolest since 1772. The exact position will depend on the official daily figures.
Even if the final June figure had been 12.6°C, it would still have hardly been historically low. 1991 was only 12.1°C, so at best this would have been the coldest in almost 30 years. As it happens it’s looking like June will be over 14°C, making it warmer than 2011, 2012, 2013 and probably 2015.
Tonyb,
I think your last sentence is wrong though. June 2019 is not going to be pretty warm, it’s going to be a bit below average, but not an “historic low”.
Even if it was one of the coldest Junes on record it would not prove an ice age was immenent. You can find several places where an exceptionally cold June is followed the next year by an exceptionally hot one, and visa-versa. English weather is very fickle.
The official June figure is 14.2°C, making it the equal 162nd coldest June since 1659. This is the coldest June since 2015.
June 4, 2019 had 38F (3.3C) here in west MD & damaging frost on low-lying ground in central PA. Coldest June temp I can remember except perhaps early June 1979.
April 26, 2019, I had three inches of snow in my yard and on my roof. I have photos. The apple tree next door finally gave up on having apples and dropped its blossoms.
WHAT GLOBULL WARMING??? WHERE IS IT????
Apparently in France according to Griff and Loydo.
“Across the world” is more than USA. All time highs in France yesterday!
“Across the world” is more than France.
This is nothing folks. IT IS GOING TO GET MUCH COLDER. Predictions are that the coming solar cycle will be the most quiet one of the past 300 years, since the little ice age.
And make no mistake about it; temperature correlates very well with solar irradiation, and has almost no correlation with carbon dioxide.
To make matters worse, the true believers among the climate alarmists are now pumping smog, sulfur dioxide, into the stratosphere to diminish the amount of sunlight reaching beneath it. So they are making it colder by artificial means. Idiots.
Weather and climate news that has somehow missed the mainstream media news:
Arctic ice shows signs of incipient recovery according to DMI:
https://notrickszone.com/2019/06/28/arctic-sea-ice-surprise-global-warming-experts-by-remaining-stable-this-decade/
Austrian Hohe Tauern glaciers growing after very snowy winter:
https://notrickszone.com/2019/06/26/austrian-weather-agency-glaciers-have-recovered-due-to-a-snowy-winter-record-june-snow-depth/
https://www.iceagenow.info/unexpected-summer-snow-hits-mongolia/
https://www.iceagenow.info/intense-cold-and-snow-in-argentina-homeland-of-the-pope/
https://www.iceagenow.info/colorado-snowpack-more-than-40-times-normal/
https://www.iceagenow.info/biting-cold-challenges-kenyan-farmers/
“…central England experienced similar historic lows in June, although the temperature was forecasted to pick up the following week due to a heatwave.”
Having lived in England for three years, I know that a temperature of 80 degrees F is considered a HEATWAVE.
I did not know Australia had “Summer” in June – it seems like people around here don’t even know there is a Southern Hemisphere in the world.
Together with the warm wave in the stratosphere, another wave of cold air will reach Australia.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp50anim.shtml
You mean an SSW? (Sudden stratospheric warming)
These are the “stains” of heat associated with the increase of ionization by the GCR. Galactic radiation always works in the background of solar radiation. In periods of low solar activity, GCR grows strongly in the lower stratosphere. Ionization in the geomagnetic field leads to “heat stains” in the stratosphere.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp50anim.shtml
The blocking of circulation at high latitudes is typical in periods of low solar activity, as the ionization of the lower stratosphere by the GCR increases, while the UV with the shortest wave decreases.
http://geo.phys.spbu.ru/materials_of_a_conference_2010/STP2010/Veretenenko_Ogurtsov_2010.pdf
Thanks.
We’re the SSWs in the Arctic in January, that caused the anomalous polar vortex cold in North America, caused by the same GCR ionisation?
See the geopotential anomalies in January 2019.
The biggest changes are visible in the lower stratosphere.
A cold lash.
In the very late 80’s, living south of Durango, along the Piedra river, we woke up on the first day of summer and found our entire sprinkler/irrigation
system frozen solid, it happened again the next night, and then temps returned to normal.
The NAO Index is negative continuously from the end of April.
BBC, UK latest:
top temperature 34C (no records broken) at Heathrow (that is one of the busiest international airports), I think that the S-box is adjacent to the northern runway, but not sure.
Heatwaves in Europe are short. Tomorrow the temperature drops in France and England.
Since last year, I’ve expected an ENSO downturn like the one experienced during the last solar minimum years.
The last big sunspot TSI action created first a CDAS global SST downtrend that lasted until May 11, then an uptrend over several solar rotations until that finally ended with a large TSI drop, represented by TSIS in red, on June 15.
That TSI downtrend had the effect of shutting down the previous warming period in the equatorial ocean until TSI rebounded again, driving a temporary warmup in the central Pacific, now shut down again by the fall in TSI last week.
The surface flux from those old sunspots in turning into earth-facing position again now, so we’ll see what’s left in terms of the TSI bump the remaining flux produces.
By watching this for some time I have discerned that larger and longer duration TSI spikes are absorbed into heat deeper into the ocean, energy that takes 10-14 days to upwell, compared to half the time for smaller TSI spikes.
Until the new cycle perks up I predict cooling and hard winters with more ice & snow records. I expect our Great Lakes to really freeze up again like last winter in an early and long cold winter.
Would love to tell you what the temp here is in my backyard. However, I am trying to find a reliable accurate and not insanely expensive thermometer. Any idea where to find one: specifically what brand or model? Perhaps a good website and recommendation. Thanks. Oh, and preferably not made in the PRC. Thanks again.
The NAO Index is negative continuously from the end of April.
The geopotential anomalies in the stratosphere will persist due to stronger ionization during the solar minimum.
I’m very impressed by all these temp drops at so many places, even if it is winter in Australia.
But am I a warmist just because the temps in my corner in Europe are unusually warm?
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vS6rHGveEZdgMpfIhXuVVEyRLMwPX3qf/view
It’s amusing to read Bob Weber predicting “cooling and hard winters with more ice & snow records” and expecting “our Great Lakes to really freeze up again like last winter in an early and long cold winter”.
Because here in Northeastern Germany, we experienced in 2017/18 and 2018/19 two non-winters in sequence, nearly no snow at all, and with an incredibly warm summer inbetween. We never spent so many water to keep the garden alive in the 20 years before!
I therefore suppose that Bob’s predictions and expectations are restricted to Northern America. But that is no more than 6% of Earth’s land surfaces.
Bindidon all the snow shovelling and the long unbroken cold duration in NA last winter were not amusing. As a general rule of thumb, warming or cooling is generally not universal, ie, one-sided extremes are rarely seen everywhere simultaneously. Germany probably won’t be so warm this winter – your luck will eventually run out – we can talk about that again in 6-8 months.
I won’t restrict next winter’s forecast to just NA as parts of Asia also had a hard winter last time, meanwhile the solar output hasn’t changed much since last winter.
“After the brief spike in temperatures during the El Niño-driven warmth of 2016, temperatures have fallen globally. This post-2016 two-year cooling resonates and coheres with the overall lull in the warming that scientists have observed during the past two decades, in which spikes in global temperature occurred only when El Niño was active.”
Well before writing that, I would prefer to await Roy Spencer’s data for the next 6 months.
Here is a comparison of UAH6.0 LT for the periods 1997-2001 and 2015-2019:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y1zmzMt_1gD5jxCOH13UVYvbocYulbNz/view
Did anybody notice on this site the nearly invisible switch from
to
Amazing!
Is Climate God dead?
I suddenly detect where the ‘sudden snow cover’ picture was made:
Rabbit Ears Pass
https://tinyurl.com/y576bhfs
Altitude: 2931 m… Oh Noes.
For a fair comparison, you quickly move to the German Alps at the Zugspitze (2962 m).
Actual temperature at 01:30 AM UTC+2: 14 °C.
Yeah it’s pretty good warm in good old Germany. No no no: I don’t complain!
And now, for something completely different…
1 metre+ hail in Guadalajara…
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48821306
I swear, humans are some of the most fragile creatures when it comes to short and long term weather pattern variations. It’s as if the Chicken Little book is now fact and natural weather cycles are fiction.
Meanwhile, UAH has June at 0.47°C above the 1981-2010 average. The second warmest June in its record, and the warmest monthly anomaly since 2017.
This week the Azores high is in the Mediterranean Sea – over Sicily.
The Iceland low is over the Baltic Sea.
Never seen before.
This week the Azores high is in the Mediterranean Sea – over Sicily.
The Iceland low is over the Baltic Sea.
Never seen before.
https://www.google.com/search?q=wetterkarte+europa&oq=wetterkarte&aqs=chrome.