Guest ridiculing by David Middleton
I only had to read one sentence of Elizabeth (Fake Mass Extinction) Kolbert’s interview of Bill McKibben to know that it would be rife with material worthy of ridicule…
Yale Environment 360
“Thirty or 50 years out, the world’s going to run on sun and wind, because they’re free,” McKibben says.
That’s funny right there in these occasionally United States!
Sorry to step on your “ray of hope” Bill, but…
In 2050, fossil fuels and nuclear power will still be generating over 2/3’s of our electricity according the the US Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook for 2019. Renewables, including Bill’s “free” wind and solar power will be generating less than 1/3 of our electricity and that 1/3 includes hydroelectric and geothermal.
According the the EIA, the Sun will be generating 48% of 31% and wind will be providing 25% of 31% of our electricity… That’s just 23% of our electricity. Unfortunately for Bill’s “ray of hope,” energy doesn’t end with electricity. There are a few other categories.
US crude oil and natural gas liquids production will still be booming…
And the US will be exporting large volumes of natural gas to foreign nations who still haven’t caught on to the “free” solar and wind power.
While the EIA’s forecasts don’t always come to fruition (they totally missed the shale revolution)… I’d go with the EIA, IEA, OPEC or any other organization that can do math over someone who can’t do math and has never had a real job.
Unless American voters stupidly elect a president who favors energy impotence over energy dominance… Bill’s “rays of hope” don’t look very hopeful.
But now that power is showing itself. Even in the last few weeks, just to watch Extinction Rebellion and [16-year-old Swedish activist] Greta Thunberg’s followers around the world shutting down schools, and the remarkable young people from the Green New Deal fanning out across this country – those things to me are signs that the fever the planet is running is producing in quantity antibodies to fight back.
Then Bill closed off where he began…
Thirty years or 50 years out, the world’s going to run on sun and wind, because they’re free. The fossil fuel industry can’t keep its business model together more than a few more decades. I think they know that, and I think that’s all they’re playing for now.
What is the basic business model of the oil industry? Invest capital into oil and gas fields to maintain and increase production.
Saudi Arabia will still be producing over 10 million barrels of oil per day until at least the 2060’s…
Unless little Greta can convince the world that freezing and starving in the dark are good things… There are no rays of hope for the Bill McKibbens of the world.
I was surprised that Bill didn’t babble something about divestment. Maybe someone explained it to him. You can only divest an asset, if there’s a willing investor. Fossil fuel divestment is “really futile and stupid gesture”.