Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President
Changing Seas: Sea level specialists Nils-Axel Mörner, Thomas Wysmuller, and Albert Parker posted comments on ResearchGate stating TWTW’s comments on sea level rise were too superficial to be useful. Fortunately, Tallbloke posted the section of TWTW and the comments, so they can be easily viewed by all. The objective of TWTW is to be understandable by the competent reader, not to appeal to specialists or to be a scientific journal. Above all, it is not the last word in anything.
Of particular concern have been the claims of multi-foot and multi-meter increases in sea levels endangering coastal cities of the US. These claims have been made by employees of NOAA and by lead authors of the latest full Assessment Report (AR-5, 2014) of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The recent effort by the cities of Oakland and San Francisco to sue ExxonMobil illustrates how these highly questionable claims are being used in litigation in hopes of collecting huge legal awards that are unjustified.
Further, for cities on the coastal plain of the Atlantic, or on the Gulf of Mexico, land subsidence is a major problem. False claims of sea level rise confuse the problem of land sinking due to groundwater extraction, and hinder or prevent a reasonable solution, such as desalination of ocean or brackish water. For these reasons, TWTW considers the cited August 8, 2018 report by NOAA Tides and Currents Section to be a welcome change. The estimate of average global sea level rise rate of about 7 inches per century is a welcome change from AR-5 and claims by NOAA employees. It is not the “final word” but it is a significant improvement. For more detailed explanations of sea level change, see the comments by the three authors with extensive note under Changing Seas.
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Quote of the Week:Why 100 authors? If I were wrong, then one would have been enough!” – Albert Einstein, in response to a book “100 Authors against Einstein” [H/t Roy Spencer]
Number of the Week: 26%
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William Happer, Climate Realist: SEPP board member Howard Hayden edits a monthly newsletter, The Energy Advocate, promoting energy and technology. This month he addressed the efforts of the climate establishment to discredit William Happer, who thus far is the only suggested appointee to a special President’s Commission to provide an independent review of the claimed threat climate change poses to the security of the US. Sections of the newsletter merit quoting:
“The second paragraph of the Wikipedia hit piece on Happer reads:
‘Happer rejects the scientific consensus on climate change. He has no formal training in climate science.’
“Let us begin this discussion by referring to one of the cartoons in Al Gore’s documendacity An Inconvenient Truth. The picture shows sunlight pouring in to the surface of the earth, with infrared leaving the surface, some of it blocked by the atmosphere (my yellow arrow). Of course, the horrid blocking molecules involved are CO2 molecules.
“The American Physical Society (APS) has sixteen divisions, such as astrophysics, nuclear physics, chemical physics, fluid dynamics, and laser science. Happer’s field of expertise is Atomic, Molecular, and Optical Physics, AMO, for which the APS Division of Atomic, Molecular and Optical Physics (DAMOP) is the most appropriate. Its members deal with experimental and theoretical aspects of atomic and molecular energy levels, “forbidden transitions,” collisional dynamics, excited-state populations, interactions with electro–magnetic radiation (a.k.a., spectroscopy), and so forth.
“Let us be perfectly clear about this. The only aspect of science that links CO2 to putative global warming (a.k.a., climate change) is AMO: Atomic, Molecular and Optical physics. Now, we quote one of the apolitical paragraphs in the Wikipedia article:
‘William Happer (born July 27, 1939) is an American physicist who has specialized in the study of atomic physics, optics and spectroscopy. He is the Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, Emeritus, at Princeton University and a long-term member of the JASON advisory group where he pioneered the development of adaptive optics.’
“In other words, what passes for ‘no formal training in climate science’ is Happer’s long career in AMO, the field that is not part of any traditional course in climatology, and the only one that has any relationship to the greenhouse effect.
Interesting Aside: Adaptive Optics
“The art and science of astrophotography have long been beset by atmospheric phenomena (moving air, varying density, varying temperature) resulting in images wandering a bit on the photographic plate during long exposures. In the old days, a photographer would sit in a seat for hours making minor adjustments to keep a bright star centered on some cross-hairs in order to get a fairly sharp image.
“The first step in automation is to insert a small tilt mirror into the light path of the telescope so that the adjustment can be done quickly. A major problem is that there aren’t enough bright stars to use for all parts of the sky.
“Beyond that is the field of adaptive optics. Happer pioneered the field with the notion that a properly tuned yellow laser could excite sodium atoms in the mesosphere. The sodium would re-radiate, and appear to the telescope as a star, whose light has to travel through exactly the same atmosphere as any star’s would. That returning yellow light would serve as a “guide star.” Therefore, all parts of the sky can now have their own guide star.
“For a large telescope, the light reaching one part of the main mirror has traveled through somewhat different atmospheric disturbances than another part of the mirror. What ought to be a plane wave that hits the mirror is more like the shape of a potato chip. Some exotic techniques involving a guide star, an array of small lenses, small detectors, and a deformable mirror turn the reflected “potato chip” back into a plane wave, greatly enhancing the quality of the image.
“Climatology
“Al Gore, Michael Bloomberg, Scott Waldman, Juliet Eilperin, Josh Dawsey, Brady Dennis, Carol Davenport, Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Ari Natter, Carla Herreria, Bill Nye, [and] Aaron Rupar, the know-nothing who wrote the Wikipedia hit piece, and the rest of enforcers of the climate consensus complain that Happer is not a climate scientist. They can’t even figure out what atomic and molecular physics might have to with the atmosphere. Enough said.”
Perhaps the real problem is that the climate establishment believes that nothing regarding climate can exist, unless it appears in climate models. The Energy Advocate is not linked below but see links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Change in US Administrations and https://www.albany.edu/faculty/rgk/atm101/sodium.htm
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The Greenhouse Effect – Emissivity: No doubt many physicists lose the audience when they speak of Blackbody radiation. Yet all objects above absolute zero, (zero degrees Kelvin, 0ºK, minus 273 degrees C, or minus 459.7 degrees F) emit electromagnetic energy. A web site at Humboldt State University has a solid discussion on how the blackbody curve (intensity versus wavelength) can vary from one type of emitter to another.
“In reality, objects in the real world are not perfect blackbodies. Not all of the incident energy upon them is absorbed, therefore they are not perfect emitters of radiation. The emissivity (ε) of a material is the relative ability of its surface to emit heat by radiation. Emissivity is defined as the ratio of the energy radiated from an object’s surface to the energy radiated from a blackbody at the same temperature.”
The higher the emissivity, the more readily the body, or substance emits electromagnetic radiation. The higher the temperature of a given substance, the more total energy is emitted from the surface, proportional to the temperature in K raised to the fourth power. So, the emission of electromagnetic energy increases dramatically with increasing temperature.
The web site at Humboldt State gives table of the emissivity of some common materials at a fixed temperature. Polished aluminum emits a tiny fraction of the energy emitted by anodized aluminum. The same with polished copper as compared with oxidized copper. Ice emits energy more readily than water or snow.
The web site has an experiment designed in the early 1800s by John Leslie demonstrating that different materials or different colors of the same material emit energy at different levels even though they are at the same temperature – Leslie’s Cube. For example, the white surface on the cube absorbs visible light very poorly, but emits very efficiently in the infrared. See links under Seeking a Common Ground
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The Greenhouse Effect – Molecular Motion: In explaining the greenhouse effect of certain atmospheric molecules, called greenhouse gases, one needs to consider what happens to these gases when infrared radiation, emitted by the earth, in the form of photons hits one of these molecules. The dominant greenhouse gas is water vapor (H2O) followed by carbon dioxide (CO2). At the surface, or near surface, these molecules are in equilibrium with local temperature. When a photon with the proper wavelength of hits CO2 it is absorbed by the molecule and causes the molecule to vibrate and rotate.
There are many more nitrogen (N2) and oxygen (O2) molecules in the atmosphere than CO2. If the excited CO2 molecule hits nitrogen or oxygen it will usually lose its energy in that collision. If not, the CO2 may emit (radiate) a photon, which can go in any direction. Near the surface, the atmosphere is dense, so the photon will soon hit another CO2 molecule, and the process continues. In the atmosphere, particularly the lower atmosphere, molecules are colliding constantly, photons being consistently emitted and absorbed. The process continues with increasing elevation, until the atmosphere thins to the point that upward-directed photons escape into space. Photons escaping into space cool the planet.
Escaping photons from CO2 molecules originate mostly in the stratosphere; at lower altitudes, a CO2-emitted photon would get re-absorbed by a CO2 molecule further up. H2O, on the other hand, “freezes out” by the top of the troposphere, called the tropopause, and the amount of H2O in the stratosphere above the tropopause is only about 4 ppm (parts per million). CO2 is about 400 ppm throughout the atmosphere. Consequently, if a photon emitted by H2O at say 9 or 11 km is headed upward, it might well escape because there are hardly any more H2O molecules above to re-capture that photon.
There is a characteristic, parameter, called “optical depth” that expresses the distance a photon can travel without being absorbed. Generally, radiation-to-space is discussed as coming from the top of the troposphere. At that altitude, the ambient temperature is about 240 or 250 K, and across the broad region of the infrared, the spectrum of outgoing photons looks fairly close to the idealized black-body. But not exactly; there is a “window” in the atmosphere right around 10 microns where black-body radiation emitted by the surface of the earth can escape to space, because no gas in the atmosphere absorbs in exactly that frequency.
The phenomenon of it getting very cold out in the desert at night is related to that. If there is very low humidity (desert conditions), it will be possible for a considerably higher percentage of the photons emitted by the ground to escape unimpeded; so that “window” around 10 microns gets a whole lot wider. Those camping in the desert at night find that it’s much than a more non-desert place of comparable altitude and latitude, because water vapor (clouds, humidity) absorbs infrared photons and gives off some photons in a downward direction
For some reason, the climate establishment does not recognize that understanding the molecular action of greenhouse gases is important to understanding “climate science,” and whether CO2-caused warming is a danger to humanity.
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Hurricanes: Judith Curry finished her 7-part series on hurricanes, which TWTW will try to summarize next week.
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Number of the Week: 26%. On WUWT, Larry Hamlin estimates that the industrialized nations of the EU and US account for about 26% of world-wide human carbon dioxide emissions (2018 projections). Will plants protest?
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
New Paper: Solar Impact on Climate Greater than Thought
Press Release, GWPF, Mar 11, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/new-paper-solar-impact-on-climate-greater-than-thought/
Force Majeure – The Sun’s Role In Climate Change
By Henrik Svensmark, GWPF, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2019/03/SvensmarkSolar2019.pdf
Censorship
Peter Ridd versus James Cook Uni — Free Speech on trial in two weeks
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 12, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/03/peter-ridd-free-speech/
Greenpeace lies to save the planet — erasing Patrick Moore again
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 15, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/03/greenpeace-lies-to-save-the-planet-erasing-patrick-moore-again/
[SEPP Comment: Shades of George Orwell’s “1984”?]
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, Draft Summary for Policymakers, NIPCC, 2019
Click to access Climate-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Volume-with-covers.pdf
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy
The science of climate change is anything but settled
By Roy Spencer, Washington Times, Mar 13, 2019
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/mar/13/what-are-the-opponents-of-donald-trumps-climate-re/
Climate Crisis? Four Major Metrics That Say Otherwise
By Joe Bastardi, The Patriot Post, Mar 13, 2019
https://patriotpost.us/opinion/61742-climate-crisis-four-major-metrics-that-say-otherwise
“I have long advocated that climatologists take a course on long-range forecasting so they can better understand the inherent errors in trying to predict the weather or climate. In the debate over the fate of the planet, where one side is always pushing hysteria, the weather is plainly not cooperating with the missive.”
Dr. Roy Spencer: “The science of climate change is anything but settled”
By David Middleton, WUWT, Mar 16, 2019
How sensitive is the climate to greenhouse gases?
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar14, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/03/14/how-sensitive-is-the-climate-to-greenhouse-gases/
Video of speech by Nic Lewis.
Hurricanes & climate change: 21st century projections
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Mar 11, 2019
https://judithcurry.com/2019/03/11/hurricanes-climate-change-21st-century-projections/
Defending the Orthodoxy
U.N. calls for ‘urgent action at an unprecedented scale’
By Jean Chemnick, E&E News reporter, Greenwire, Mar 13, 2019
https://www.eenews.net/greenwire/2019/03/13/stories/1060127193
Global Environment Outlook, SPM
By Staff Writers, UN Environment Programme, 2019
https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/27652/GEO6SPM_EN.pdf
Quizzing our Queen of Catastrophism
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Mar 7, 2019
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2019/03/quizzing-our-queen-of-catastrophism/
“I paid $15 to hear Melbourne University climate scientist Dr Joelle Gergis at Writers’ Week at the WA University last month, where I learnt she had been appointed one of the 17 IPCC ‘lead authors” on the water cycle chapter for the IPCC’s 2021 report on the Physical Science.”
“Fresh from an IPCC confab in Vancouver and not long into her talk, Gergis announced, ‘Climate change is with us right now. Climate change is not a scientific issue, it is a moral and ethical challenge.’ And when wrapping up, she repeated, ‘It’s important to understand that this is an ethical and moral issue, no longer a scientific issue.”” [Boldface added]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
New Study: North America Has Been Cooling Since 1998 – With No Significant Overall Warming Since 1982
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 14, 2019
Link to paper: The Key Role of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in Minimum Temperature Over North America During Global Warming Slowdown
By Zewen Gan, et al. Earth and Space Science, Jan 28, 2019
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018EA000443
“• In North America, minimum temperature experienced an obvious decline during 1998–2014
“• The decadal components of minimum temperature have a strong relationship (r = 0.71) with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation during 1950–2014
“• Minimum temperature decline is induced by the synchronous phase shift of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation”
Tokyo Warming Due To Urbanization, Leading Japanese Biologist Tells National TV Audience…Almost No Rural Warming
By P Gosselin and Kirye (in Tokyo), No Tricks Zone, Mar 15, 2019
New Paper: From Green Revolution to Green Evolution: A Critique of the Political Myth of Averted Famine
By Roger Pielke, Jr. His Blog, Mar 12, 2019
From Green Revolution to Green Evolution: A Critique of the Political Myth of Averted Famine
Pielke, Jr., R. and Björn-Ola Linnér, 2019, in press no link yet
[SEPP Comment: No doubt, it will be controversial.]
After Paris!
U.S., EU energy & emissions now insignificant to global energy & emissions growth
Guest essay by Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Mar 16, 2019
“The U.S. and EU represent combined only about 29% of global energy use and 26% of global emissions.”
Isle of Wight Refuses To Save The Planet
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 13, 2019
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/03/13/isle-of-wight-refuses-to-save-the-planet/
Impoverished Island Nation Embraces Coal, Rejects Climate Change Narratives
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 13, 2019
Happer is Right Person to Lead Objective Federal Climate Commission
By Sterling Burnett, The Epoch Times, Mar 12, 2019
Perry’s “New Energy Realism” (freedom and fossil fuels are essential, moral, unstoppable)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Mar 14, 2019
https://www.masterresource.org/u-s-department-of-energy/perry-new-energy-realism-cera/
Problems in the Orthodoxy
More Climate Change Skeptics in Netherlands; Especially Men and Elderly
By Janene Pieters, NL Times, Mar 7, 2019
https://nltimes.nl/2019/03/07/climate-change-skeptics-netherlands-especially-men-elderly
Climate a Main topic in First Election Debate
By Janene Pieters, NL Times, Mar 8, 2019
https://nltimes.nl/2019/03/08/climate-main-topic-first-election-debate
“The plans for the draft climate agreement are currently being calculated for feasibility [including shutting down coal-fired power plants] by the Netherlands’ planning offices.”
Dutch Govt Election Panic Prompts Sudden U-turn on Climate Plan
By Alexander Bakker, De Telegraaf, Mar 14, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/dutch-govt-panics-sudden-u-turn-on-climate-plan/
EPP [European People’s Party] dismiss higher climate target as ‘propaganda
By Peter Teffer, EUObserver, Mar 14, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
https://euobserver.com/environment/144410
Emissivity, Introduction to Remote Sensing
By Staff, Humboldt State University Accessed Mar 15, 2019 [H/t Howard Hayden]
http://gsp.humboldt.edu/OLM_2015/Courses/GSP_216_Online/lesson8-1/emissivity.html
[SEPP Comment: Demonstrating Leslie’s Cube]
The Climate Debate Twenty Years Later (recalling Houston’s 1999 conference)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Mar 7, 2019
https://www.masterresource.org/debate-issues/houston-1999-climate-debate/
[SEPP Comment: “In ten years we will know” has not come true, according to many.]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Declining Drought in the USA Over the Past Half-century
Mo, K.C. and Lettenmaier, D.P. 2018. Drought variability and trends over the central United States in the instrumental record. Journal of Hydrometeorology 19: 1149-1166. Mar 14, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/mar/a8.php
Combined Impacts of Ocean Acidification and Warming on Yellowfin Bream
Coleman, M.A., Butcherine, P., Kelaher, B.P., Broadhurst, M.K., March, D.T., Provost, E.J., David, J. and Benkendorff. 2019. Climate change does not affect the seafood quality of a commonly targeted fish. Global Change Biology 25: 699-707. March 13, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/mar/a7.php
Four Decades of Species Range Change of Sinai’s High-Mountain Flora
Coals, P., Shmida, A., Vasl, A., Duguny, N.M. and Gilbert, F. 2018. Elevation patterns of plant diversity and recent altitudinal range shifts in Sinai’s high-mountain flora. Journal of Vegetation Science 29: 255-264., March 11, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/mar/a6.php
Model Issues
Claim: By design, Australia will have no winter by 2050
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 13, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/03/13/claim-by-design-australia-will-have-no-winter-by-2050/
Measurement Issues — Surface
Australia’s Hottest Summer? Maybe Not.
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 13, 2019
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics
By Shinya KOBAYASHI, et al, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 2015
https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/93/1/93_2015-001/_article
Nitrogen dioxide pollution mapped
By Staff Writers, Paris (ESA), Mar 13, 2019
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Nitrogen_dioxide_pollution_mapped_999.html
Changing Weather
California is drought-free for the first time in nearly a decade
By Alejandra Reyes-Velarde, LA Times, Mar 14, 2019
https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-rain-california-drought-conditions-20190314-story.html
[SEPP Comment: Will flooding now be called permanent?]
California’s ‘permanent drought’ now officially over after 376 straight weeks
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 16, 2019
Hurricane Alarmists Take Blow As New Study Pours Cold Water On Human Impact
PIK takes a blow: stronger hurricanes cannot be explained by higher CO2
By Die kalte Sonne, (German text translated/edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Mar 10, 2019
‘Tornado drought’ dampens Democrats’ climate change narrative
Bernie Sanders pushes climate change narrative despite last year’s ‘tornado drought’
By Valerie Richardson, The Washington Times, Mar 10, 2019
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/mar/10/tornado-decline-dings-climate-change-narrative-ber/
“’In terms of the severity of a year, if a tornado hits you,’ said Mr. Marsh, ‘it’s probably going to be the worst year of your life.’”
Derry’s “Climate Conference”
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 14, 2019
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/03/14/derrys-climate-conference/
Changing Climate
The day the world burned
By Staff Writers, Santa Barbara CA (SPX), Mar 14, 2019
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/The_day_the_world_burned_999.html
Link to paper: Sedimentary record from Patagonia, southern Chile supports cosmic-impact triggering of biomass burning, climate change, and megafaunal extinctions at 12.8 ka
By Mario Pino, et al, Scientific Reports, Mar 13, 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-38089-y
[SEPP Comment: Discussing the Younger Dryas impact hypothesis that the sudden cooling was caused by fragments of a large, disintegrating asteroid/comet striking many parts of the globe about 12,800 years ago.]
Dinosaurs were thriving before asteroid strike that wiped them out
By Hayley Dunning, Imperial College, London, Mar 6, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/190446/dinosaurs-were-thriving-before-asteroid-strike/
Link to paper: Ecological niche modelling does not support climatically-driven dinosaur diversity decline before the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction
By Alfio Alessandro Chiarenza, et al. Nature Communications, Mar 6, 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08997-2
Changing Seas
Sea Level Views from SEPP (190309) are far too superficial to be useful
Comments by N.-A. Mörner, T. Wysmuller & A. Parker, Posted by Tallbloke, Mar 14, 2019
https://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2019/03/sea-level-views-2.pdf
New Study Shows Sea Level Near Japan Was 0.4 Meters Higher 3600 Years Ago Than Today
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 9, 2019
Link to paper: Holocene sea-level change and evolution of a mixed coral reef and mangrove system at Iriomote Island, southwest Japan
By Yamano et al. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, May 1, 2019
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771418306152?dgcid=raven_sd_search_email
[SEPP Comment: According to abstract, estimated height was after corrections for tectonics. It may be due to shifts in prevailing winds over the Pacific.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
New satellite keeps close watch on Antarctic [Arctic?] ice loss
By Staff Writers, Lancaster UK (SPX), Mar 11, 2019
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/New_satellite_keeps_close_watch_on_Antarctic_ice_loss_999.html
Link to paper: Definition differences and internal variability affect the simulated Arctic sea ice melt season
By Abigail Smith and Alexandra Jahn, The Cryosphere, Jan 2, 2019
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/1/2019/
Greenland’s Glaciers Expanding Again
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 11, 2019
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/03/11/greenlands-glaciers-expanding-again/
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Houston, we’re here to help the farmers
By Staff Writers, SPX, Mar 11, 2019
http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/Houston_were_here_to_help_the_farmers_999.html
“Using the temperature data from ECOSTRESS, scientists are able to calculate evapotranspiration–the amount of water evaporating from the surface of the Earth and from plants. ‘And for farmers, this information is the number one requirement for irrigation. It’s useful for them to know how much to water plants. And it helps indicate future droughts and weather changes.’”
“It can also show which plants are being more efficient with their water and which are stressed because they don’t have enough. It can do this on a surprisingly small scale: down to 230 square feet.”
Lowering Standards
Fox Butterfield Returns To The New York Times With The February Jobs Report
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Mar 11, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Environment damage behind 1 in 4 global deaths, disease: UN
By Patrick GALEY
Nairobi (AFP) March 13, 2019
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Environment_damage_behind_1_in_4_global_deaths_disease_UN_999.html
“It said that poor environmental conditions “cause approximately 25 percent of global disease and mortality” — around 9 million deaths in 2015 alone.”
[SEPP Comment: In 1900, before widespread use of fossil fuels, world-wide life expectancy was about 31 years, today it is about 72 years, what is meant by “premature deaths”?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Climate Control, Brainwashing in Schools
By Andrew Montford and John Shade, Global Warming Policy Foundation, Mar 15, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/climate-control-brainwashing-in-schools/
Link to report: Climate Control, Brainwashing in Schools
By Andrew Montford and John Shade, Global Warming Policy Foundation, March 2019
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2014/04/Education-reducedportrait-5.pdf
A Carefully Miseducated Generation of Climate Warriors
By Dave Pellowe, Quadrant, Mar 14, 2019
Climate change student strike inspired by politically correct teaching, academic says
By Malcolm Sutton, ABC, Adelaide, Au, Mar 15, 2019
Genesis of a Shakedown: New Records Expose Children’s Marches as Long-Planned Component of Litigation Campaign
By Staff Writers, Climate Litigation Watch, Mar 13, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
On Climate, the Kids Are All Wrong
And a band of ignorant brats shall lead them: Some things have hardly changed since 1212.
By Paul H. Tice, WSJ, Via GWPF, Mar 12, 2019
https://www.wsj.com/articles/on-climate-the-kids-are-all-wrong-11552430379
https://www.thegwpf.com/on-climate-the-kids-are-all-wrong/
Questioning European Green
Climate Regulatory Madness Ratchets Up: “German Greens Aiming To Limit Citizens To 2 Flights A Year
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 12, 2019
Fracking could cut Britain’s gas imports to zero by early 2030s
By Susanna Twidale, Reuters, Mar 11, 2019
But fracking companies say the industry is unlikely to take off in Britain under current regulations, which halt fracking activity if a seismic event of magnitude 0.5 or above is detected.
Questioning Green Elsewhere
How Much Do The Climate Crusaders Plan To Increase Your Cost Of Electricity? — Part V
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Mar 14, 2019
The Political Games Continue
When Socialism Fails
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Mar 9, 2019
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/4896
Litigation Issues
NY Attorney General Defies Judge’s Order in Exxon Case
Guest post by David Middleton, WUWT, Mar 14, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/03/14/ny-attorney-general-defies-judges-order-in-exxon-case/
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Hearing Summary: “Wasted Energy: DOE’s Inaction on Efficiency Standards & Its Impact on Consumers and the Climate”
By Mark Krebs, Master Resource, Mar 12, 2019
https://www.masterresource.org/u-s-department-of-energy/hearing-summary/
Energy Issues – Non-US
Venezuela’s melt down: Blackout day six and the grid struggles to reboot
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 14, 2019
Yes, Chavez And Maduro Caused Venezuela’s Power System Collapse
By Tim Worstall, Continental Telegraph, Mar 9, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Market failures could see Britain suffering five-day power cuts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 14, 2019
Russia’s Pipe Dreams Are Europe’s Nightmare
Putin’s plans to run the TurkStream pipeline through the Balkans won’t end well.
By Dimitar Bechev, Foreign Policy, Mar 12, 2019
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/12/russia-turkstream-oil-pipeline/
Energy Issues – Australia
Green Energy Wars May Bring Down Australian Government
By Staff Writers, The Australian, Via GWPF, Mar 12, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/green-energy-wars-may-bring-down-australian-government/
The cost of one days electricity on the Australian grid is three times (or 50 times) more than it was in 2012
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 11, 2019
Energy Issues — US
Second Wave of U.S. Shale Revolution Is Coming, Says IEA
The U.S. is set to become a net petroleum exporter in two years, according to the International Energy Agency
By Christopher Alessi, WSJ, Via GWPF, Mar 11, 2019
https://www.wsj.com/articles/second-wave-of-u-s-shale-revolution-is-coming-says-iea-11552291237
https://www.thegwpf.com/second-wave-of-u-s-shale-revolution-is-coming-says-iea/
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
America is set to surpass Saudi Arabia in a ‘remarkable’ oil milestone
By Matt Egan, CNN Business, Mar 8, 2019
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/08/business/us-oil-exports-saudi-arabia/index.html
Nuclear Energy and Fears
It Sounds Crazy, But Fukushima, Chernobyl, And Three Mile Island Show Why Nuclear Is Inherently Safe
By Michael Shellenberger, Forbes, Mar 11, 2019
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
New Study: German Wind Turbines Kill 1,200 Tons of Insects Per Year
By Michael Krueger, Science Sceptical blog, Via GWPF, Mar 12, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/new-study-german-wind-turbines-kill-1200-tons-of-insects-per-year/
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
European lawsuit threatens Drax power plant
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 12, 2019
[SEPP Comment: New question on biomass rules.]
Other Scientific News
NASA captures unprecedented images of supersonic shockwaves
By Staff Writers, Washington (AFP) March 8, 2019
[SEPP Comment: No doubt, colored for effect.]
Other News that May Be of Interest
Elizabeth I, Sir Francis Drake and the Canadian West Coast.
By Tim Ball, Digital Management, Mar 13, 2019
https://drtimball.ca/2019/elizabeth-i-sir-francis-drake-and-the-canadian-west-coast/
[SEPP Comment: Looking for the Northwest Passage from the West?]
South African man escapes jaws of whale
By Staff Writers, Port Elizabeth, South Africa (AFP) March 11, 2019
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/South_African_man_escapes_jaws_of_whale_999.html
Six Project Management Tips Every Engineer Needs
By Jean Thilmany, ASME, Mar 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Call to action!
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Mar 14, 2019
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/6964
“Considering that climate change represents a real threat to the existence of humanity, of living beings and our Mother Earth as we know it today,
“Confident that the peoples of the world, guided by the principles of solidarity, justice and respect for life, will be able to save humanity and Mother Earth, and Celebrating the International Day of Mother Earth,
“The Government of the Plurinational State of Bolivia calls on the peoples of the world, social movements and Mother Earth’s defenders, and invites scientists, academics, lawyers and governments that want to work with their citizens to the Peoples’ World Conference on Climate Change and Mother Earth’s Rights to be held from 20th to 22nd April 2010 in Cochabamba, Bolivia.
“Evo Morales Ayma, President of the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Bolivia, January 5th, 2010 – CounterCurrents.org”
Out of the clouds
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Mar 14, 2019
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/10379
“The Great Smoky Mountains have the most annual rainfall in the southeastern U.S., which mostly falls as a light, misty rain, explains OurAmazingPlanet.
“A study by a team from NASA’s Precipitation Measurement Missions found that “light rainfall is the dominant form of precipitation in the region, accounting for 50 to 60 percent of a year’s total, governing the regional water cycle.”
“OurAmazingPlanet notes: The results suggest the area may be more susceptible to climate change than thought; as temperatures rise, more of the fine droplets from light rain will evaporate in the air and fail to reach the ground.
“Lower elevations will have to contend with not only higher temperatures, but less cloud cover.
“Huffington Post, 2001”
ARTICLES:
1. ‘Extension Cord’ to Carry Green Power From Midwest to East
Siemens, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners to take over $2.5 billion project to transmit wind and solar energy
By Russell Gold, WSJ, Mar 10, 2019
https://www.wsj.com/articles/extension-cord-to-carry-green-power-from-midwest-to-east-11552275900
[SEPP Comment: Bringing the high cost of electricity in Germany and Denmark to the US?]
SUMMARY: The journalist states
“Two European firms are backing an ambitious $2.5 billion project to carry renewable electricity underground through the American heartland.
“Siemens AG SIEGY 0.89% is joining with a Danish investment fund to build and operate a 349-mile-long, electrical-transmission line that would carry wind and solar energy from Iowa into the Chicago area, according to the project’s developer.
“The link would allow renewable energy from the Upper Midwest to travel all the way into the eastern U.S. by hooking up to the PJM Interconnection, the power grid that serves all or part of 13 states, including Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
The PJM Interconnection goes south through Virginia and includes a part of eastern North Carolina.
“Called the SOO Green Renewable Rail, the project is a giant extension cord designed to carry electricity on buried direct-current lines. The fund, called Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, and Siemens are purchasing the project from its developers, a group that includes several private investors and the U.S. subsidiary of Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. The terms of the deal weren’t disclosed.
“The vast majority of the line will run in a Canadian Pacific railroad corridor. The project’s developers expect that going underground on an existing railroad right of way will make it easier to obtain permits and local permission, a strategy that they say was used before in expanding high-speed internet networks. It is using direct-current technology, instead of the more widely deployed alternating current, because it doesn’t interfere with railroad signals.
“’The fact is that going underground, you don’t have wires rubbing up against trees. You are not going to have tornado impacts. It is safer and more resilient,’ said Joe DeVito, president of Direct Connect Development Co., which has developed the project.”
*********************
2. When There’s Too Much Sun and Wind
The biggest danger of renewable energy is overproduction.
By Rupert Darwall, WSJ, Mar 10, 2019
https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-theres-too-much-sun-and-wind-11552245478
The author of “Green Tyranny: Exposing the Totalitarian Roots of the Climate Industrial Complex” claims most destructive consequence of wind and solar power result from periods of oversupply.
“Coal and gas generating plants have to be kept on standby and ramped up to cover the shortfall resulting from still air and darkness. That forces them to operate less efficiently and pushes their costs up. During periods of low demand, wind and solar can produce too much electricity, creating gluts and driving wholesale prices negative, meaning grid operators have to pay consumers to burn unwanted energy. That makes nuclear, coal and gas generators unprofitable, necessitating extra subsidies to save the power stations needed to keep the lights on.
“These costs fall on everyone sharing that grid, as Europe’s experience shows. In 2016, Germany paid €1 billion (about $1.13 billion) for discarded renewable output. Each year Germany dumps 50,000 of the 85,000 gigawatt-hours of wind power it produces on neighboring countries at low cost. “Poland and the Czech Republic see Germany as an aggressor, overproducing electricity and dumping it across the border,” the Journal reported in 2017. Poland is installing phase shifters on its western border to repel current from the German side. A spokeswoman for the Czech national grid called the energy dumping “collateral damage of a purely political decision of the German government.”
“Similar conflicts have arisen between U.S. states. Surplus California electricity plays havoc with wholesale prices in Arizona and is a factor behind the planned closure of the Grand Canyon State’s Navajo Generating Station.
“One answer is for states to institute capacity markets, which pay power stations for merely remaining operational rather than for the electricity they supply. That is, consumers must pay for both unwanted renewable energy and underused gas and coal plants. In Germany, Europe’s wealthiest country, 1 in 6 people is threatened with fuel poverty, defined as energy bills eating up more than 10% of household income.
“The Trump administration should instruct the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to craft rules aimed at isolating the bad effects of states’ renewable policies. One way for a state to comply would be to require all generators, including wind and solar, to meet minimum annual levels of capacity availability and to submit firm, unconditional time-of-day bids so that all generators are contractually obliged to deliver electricity whatever the weather. That would create incentives for wind and solar investors to fund innovation in grid storage to overcome the intermittency problem of the technologies for which they are handsomely subsidized.
“Doubtless that would provoke howls of anguish from Californian politicians. But they shouldn’t be able to make a show of their virtue while burdening other states with the costs.”
‘the industrialized nations of the EU and US account for about 26% of world-wide human carbon dioxide emissions’
Note that the US and EU account for about 46% of the world’s economy. In other words, the West is very efficient, relative to CO2 emissions. The Left is attempting to cut Western economies, i.e., replace efficient economies vis-a-vis CO2 with less efficient economies. Every Western plant that closes means MORE CO2.
Excellent point. I also like how this article encourages us to look at other sources. I like to push myself to understand everything my above average non-scientist brain is capable of. It’s also good Ken lets all the haters know that WUWT is for the average person to understand planetary physics and meteorology better. It’s not a paper to be peer reviewed, and everyone, (not just scientists with multiple degrees in climatology) can discuss alternative views and Environmentalist gods forbid, null hypothesis.
The tropical cyclone will enter the Northern Territory in Australia.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/18/energy-analysts-forecast-the-end-of-coal-in-asia-as-japanese-investors-back-renewables
Energy analysts forecast ‘the end of coal’ in Asia as Japanese investors back renewables
Aha! Griff rears his empty head.
Competent analysts forecast The End Of Asia economically if they turn away from traditional energy sources.
Here is an interesting observation. Right at the beginning of February a tight circular wind pattern developed at 10 hPa at both poles. In Antarctica that led to a rapid drop in temps of about 20C in a matter of several days in spots directly under where the 10 hPa rotation formed.
In the NH the tight rotation developed over northern Greenland and nearby arctic waters with similar results. Greenland temps eventually reached its lows for the season only after the change at the top of the atmosphere, dropping into the -50s. The tight rotation is still the status quo at both poles, …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-313.87,-89.47,481/loc=33.969,-80.341
I am curious as to the future consequences at the surface of this shift at 10 hPa.
The winter polar vortex in the southern hemisphere begins to develop.
The rapidity of the change was surprising to me.
Also of interest. Note the surface winds off of the East Coast, …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-73.96,34.94,1107
Get ready for the rain.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=namer×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
I would bet that the West Coast will get steady incoming storms through April and some in May. They keep developing out in the Pacific. Earlier yesterday there were only two strong tcw flows, and now a 3rd system has sprung up with smaller trailing flows popping further to the west in the Pacific.
The Midwest may be in for a very long spring flood despite the fact that it is currently at record levels in some areas.
I agree and greet.
This time the front will draw moisture from the tropics to California.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/18/offshore-windfarm-development-bigger-better-cheaper
Offshore windfarm development: bigger, better, cheaper
Ok, I’ll bite griff. Shouldn’t the solar and wind producing companies and countries be more responsible with using expensive storage solutions rather then trying to force other entities to do it? That’s what the article you’re commenting on is about. Please enlighten us about what percentage of energy is produced by your peoples offshore turbines compared to conventional energy plants. We would love to see another link regarding profits vs. costs too.
Re: the http://gsp.humboldt.edu/OLM_2015/Courses/GSP_216_Online/lesson8-1/emissivity.html
emissivity discussion .
The computation for arbitrary object color , what the article calls “selective radiation” and source and sink power spectra is given at http://cosy.com/Science/ComputationalEarthPhysics.html#EqTempEq .